Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right
podcast where we talk to our friend and sponsor of
the show, Zach Abraham from Bulwark Capital Management, and today
we are going to talk a little bit about betting
and betting platforms and gambling because now with the you know,
with this whole what's the one that's not polymarket, the
other one is like Kelsey or Kelshy or something.
Speaker 2: Calshi, Calshi, Calshi, Calshi.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So there's these platforms now where you can literally bet
on anything and people are actually making bunches of money
by betting on things as terrible as war. So I
saw like a tweet from somewhere where people got absolutely
rich because they they bet on when the US would
strike Iran and now like all of a sudden, they're
millionaires because they did that, which feels.
Speaker 3: Grows gross to me. Right, So what do you what
are your thoughts about that?
Speaker 1: And is that something that eventually maybe they're there's going
to be a crackdown on like the kinds of things
that you can actually bet on.
Speaker 4: But is it any worse than the lottery though too,
I don't know, or is it the same or what
do you think I don't know.
Speaker 5: These are these No, these are good questions.
Speaker 2: So okay, So I look at this in a kind
of from a different perspective, and certainly in a biased way.
I don't see this. I don't see this coming in anymore.
Speaker 5: I mean, I.
Speaker 2: Considered, I think this will continue to proliferate, so I
would anticipate we'll see even more ability to bet on
really weird things. It brings up some interesting like, it
brings up some interesting issues though, Like I don't know
if you guys heard about this one example, but there
was a streaker at the Super Bowl, right, yes, well
he won three hundred and fifty grand because he bet
somebody would streak during the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: Yeah, somebody would, and then he did.
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah yeah. So like he paid his fine and
everything and went to jail.
Speaker 2: But I think it's either he walked with two hundred
and fifty or three hundred and fifty grand when it
was all said and done.
Speaker 3: Oh my gosh. Yeah, that seems really shady. It is shady.
But also he's got a nice chunk for retirement.
Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, and there's part of me so like, what, yeah,
is it kind of shady? Yes?
Speaker 2: And I can see potentially them cracking down on it
for reasons like that. However, I will say that I'm
a big fan of the concept of caveat in tour,
which is buyer beware, meaning I think government does so
many things to protect people that it goes over right,
it goes to the point where it's not really protecting anybody.
It's just making everything inefficient. And here's the other thing,
Like from somebody that's in financial markets, you will never
regulate out the ability for stupid people to do stupid things, right, So,
and if you look at a lot of regulations, that's
what you're attempting to do, Like you're attempting for people
not to get snowed. If somebody wants to believe that
you can guarantee them a fifteen percent annual return, they're
gonna get snowed.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 2: There's no regulation you can pass that does that or
that will prevent that from happening.
Speaker 5: So I love the idea of caveat em.
Speaker 2: Toward the other side of it that is getting very
interesting for us is it opens up the possibility and
the ability to use those market to hedge other investments.
So like, for instance, if you were going to sit
there and say, like, I'll give you a perfect example.
If one of the stocks that we currently own for
our clients is Taiwan Semiconductors, and we've owned it for
quite a while and done very well with it. What
is the biggest threat to Taiwan semiconductors. It's China invading Taiwan, right,
So if we started getting worried about that, rather than
selling Taiwan semiconductors, we could lay a big bet down
that paid really big in the event that China invaded Taiwan.
So it and you will start to see these markets
get used that way by guys like me that manage
money if they're not already is those markets get more
efficient and things like that, and they can take bigger
bets and bigger sizes.
Speaker 5: That's the other problem.
Speaker 2: I don't know if they could flow to bet size
right like for me to if I because if I
was going to do that, I'd have to be able
to lay down a bet that was probably the equivalent
of at least fifteen or twenty million. I don't know
if they Well, we manage a billion dollars, right, so
it's all scale, right, So but I I don't know
if those pools of money or those those places have
the ability to take that kind of flow. But they
will at some point, and so I get used to it.
It's not going anywhere you're gonna see.
Speaker 4: Oh my god, and the weirdest stuff like, yeah, it's.
Speaker 5: Fascinating to me. Though. There's another really, there's.
Speaker 2: A tip that I'll give I'll give kids right now. Okay,
first tip, don't bet on these sites. Okay, you're going
to hear stories of people that get rich betting. The
reason they're stories is because it happens so rarely.
Speaker 1: That is such an important point because it's the same
essentially as going to Vegas and think it's you're going
to be like a super winner winning the lottery or whatever.
Speaker 3: It's one hear about the stories because they're rare. That's
such a good point, right.
Speaker 4: A bet is a bet as a bet like this
is the thing, Like I when I go to Vegas,
I'm like, I'm spending twenty dollars on the slots and
that's it, yep, rightly, because you know why, because I'm
not gonna I'm literally going to spend it.
Speaker 3: I'm going to lose it.
Speaker 4: I count on losing it.
Speaker 2: That's my and this is why I tell people to
invest in crypto. I go, look, that's totally appropriate. We've
made a lot of money in crypto as well. But
you need to be honest with yourself. And they go,
what do you mean? And I go, that's not an investment,
it's a bet. No, that's not true.
Speaker 5: And I go, does crypto have any cash flows?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 5: Do they own any assets?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 5: Can you project their cash flows out into the future. No? Okay,
So it's a bet. Great period, it's a bet. It's
a bet. It's a bet.
Speaker 2: And but the one other thing I would tell young
people is, even though I say don't bet on it,
download the app and watch these things. Start understanding the
game of probabilities, Start looking at how those probabilities weigh
into each other, Start looking at the way markets price them,
start looking for price inefficiencies right, meaning we should have
all laid money that the US was gonna bomb. I
ran the second that carrier moved into the straight or
hormone exactly.
Speaker 5: You should have done it right.
Speaker 2: But in understanding these things, the other thing that I
want young people to understand is watch how much more
often betting markets are right than any pundit you listen
to right.
Speaker 3: Right, because you got skin in the game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent, and it's people, it's people putting.
You can always trust information more when somebody's got skin
behind it, right, meaning, oh.
Speaker 5: You're really sure about that? Yeah, one hundred percent. Want
to bet on it?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 5: Right, Well you walk into a betting more and everybody's
laid down some skin.
Speaker 2: So it's it. You're gonna watch these markets proliferate. You're
gonna watch them play a bigger and bigger role into society.
You're gonna watch them get used more to hedge things.
Speaker 5: So is it a good thing?
Speaker 2: I don't think so, just because I think that we
have over financialized everything. Everything now is a video game
that can potentially pay you money. Social media is YouTube
is video game, you know, everything is, and so I
think it really encourages people to live in an artificial environment.
So I'm not a fan of that. But will there
be like just just like social media? Right, people say
how bad social media is. I will tell you right now,
Bullwark would not be in the place that we are
without social media.
Speaker 5: Oh several yeah, the same thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, So it's all about how you use it.
People that use it correctly. I think it's gonna be wonderful.
Speaker 5: Right, there's gonna be a lot of the gal.
Speaker 1: Like placing a bet that you are controlling the outcome
of You say that again, Mark, I said, placing a
bet that you are actually controlling the outcome of.
Speaker 3: Is that's that? That seems unethical on every level, you
know what I mean?
Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, it is.
Speaker 2: And that's going to be one of the tough things
about regulating these markets, right, and you're going to see
I really I don't even want to go to too
far down that path, but I don't understand how you're
going to get around not seeing bad things happen because
people bet on it.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, you know what I mean?
Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's.
Speaker 3: That's really scary, you know.
Speaker 2: And I don't want to be the person thinking about
worst case scenarios. But when I look at human beings
and the way we are, craziness you see in the
world today. Do you think there are people out there
that wouldn't make a bet that would pay them a
million dollars and then go do something horrific?
Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, they happen absolutely.
Speaker 3: If a guy went streaking for two hundred and fifty grand. Yeah,
people will.
Speaker 2: Do it, I mean going streak it for less.
Speaker 1: And this is why we love you, and this is
why we send everybody to your podcast and to your seminars,
and people really should love talking to you because you're
an actual conservative and you're shameless about it, and so
our audience should all be putting their money with you.
Tell us, tell them how they can do that.
Speaker 5: That's a well, thank you.
Speaker 2: So easy to find Borercapitalmanagement dot com, Know Your Risk
podcast dot com. That's our podcast that we put out
every single day. Try to keep it to twenty five
thirty minutes. Cover everything important in the world, economics and
finance with no nonsense. So yeah, just Borercapitalmanagement dot com
Know your Risk Podcast.
Speaker 5: We're not hard to find.
Speaker 3: Awesome, Thank you. That sad.
Speaker 5: Thanks ladies,