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Speaker 1: Welcome to another episode of the Chicks on the Right

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podcast where we talk to our friend and sponsor of

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the show, Zach Abraham from Bulwark Capital Management, and today

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we are going to talk a little bit about betting

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and betting platforms and gambling because now with the you know,

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with this whole what's the one that's not polymarket, the

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other one is like Kelsey or Kelshy or something.

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Speaker 2: Calshi, Calshi, Calshi, Calshi.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So there's these platforms now where you can literally bet

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on anything and people are actually making bunches of money

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by betting on things as terrible as war. So I

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saw like a tweet from somewhere where people got absolutely

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rich because they they bet on when the US would

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strike Iran and now like all of a sudden, they're

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millionaires because they did that, which feels.

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Speaker 3: Grows gross to me. Right, So what do you what

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are your thoughts about that?

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Speaker 1: And is that something that eventually maybe they're there's going

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to be a crackdown on like the kinds of things

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that you can actually bet on.

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Speaker 4: But is it any worse than the lottery though too,

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I don't know, or is it the same or what

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do you think I don't know.

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Speaker 5: These are these No, these are good questions.

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Speaker 2: So okay, So I look at this in a kind

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of from a different perspective, and certainly in a biased way.

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I don't see this. I don't see this coming in anymore.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I.

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Speaker 2: Considered, I think this will continue to proliferate, so I

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would anticipate we'll see even more ability to bet on

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really weird things. It brings up some interesting like, it

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brings up some interesting issues though, Like I don't know

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if you guys heard about this one example, but there

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was a streaker at the Super Bowl, right, yes, well

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he won three hundred and fifty grand because he bet

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somebody would streak during the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, somebody would, and then he did.

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Speaker 5: Yeah yeah yeah. So like he paid his fine and

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everything and went to jail.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's either he walked with two hundred

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and fifty or three hundred and fifty grand when it

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was all said and done.

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Speaker 3: Oh my gosh. Yeah, that seems really shady. It is shady.

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But also he's got a nice chunk for retirement.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Well, and there's part of me so like, what, yeah,

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is it kind of shady? Yes?

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Speaker 2: And I can see potentially them cracking down on it

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for reasons like that. However, I will say that I'm

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a big fan of the concept of caveat in tour,

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which is buyer beware, meaning I think government does so

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many things to protect people that it goes over right,

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it goes to the point where it's not really protecting anybody.

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It's just making everything inefficient. And here's the other thing,

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Like from somebody that's in financial markets, you will never

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regulate out the ability for stupid people to do stupid things, right, So,

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and if you look at a lot of regulations, that's

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what you're attempting to do, Like you're attempting for people

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not to get snowed. If somebody wants to believe that

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you can guarantee them a fifteen percent annual return, they're

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gonna get snowed.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 2: There's no regulation you can pass that does that or

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that will prevent that from happening.

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Speaker 5: So I love the idea of caveat em.

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Speaker 2: Toward the other side of it that is getting very

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interesting for us is it opens up the possibility and

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the ability to use those market to hedge other investments.

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So like, for instance, if you were going to sit

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there and say, like, I'll give you a perfect example.

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If one of the stocks that we currently own for

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our clients is Taiwan Semiconductors, and we've owned it for

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quite a while and done very well with it. What

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is the biggest threat to Taiwan semiconductors. It's China invading Taiwan, right,

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So if we started getting worried about that, rather than

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selling Taiwan semiconductors, we could lay a big bet down

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that paid really big in the event that China invaded Taiwan.

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So it and you will start to see these markets

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get used that way by guys like me that manage

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money if they're not already is those markets get more

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efficient and things like that, and they can take bigger

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bets and bigger sizes.

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Speaker 5: That's the other problem.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they could flow to bet size

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right like for me to if I because if I

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was going to do that, I'd have to be able

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to lay down a bet that was probably the equivalent

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of at least fifteen or twenty million. I don't know

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if they Well, we manage a billion dollars, right, so

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it's all scale, right, So but I I don't know

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if those pools of money or those those places have

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the ability to take that kind of flow. But they

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will at some point, and so I get used to it.

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It's not going anywhere you're gonna see.

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, and the weirdest stuff like, yeah, it's.

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Speaker 5: Fascinating to me. Though. There's another really, there's.

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Speaker 2: A tip that I'll give I'll give kids right now. Okay,

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first tip, don't bet on these sites. Okay, you're going

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to hear stories of people that get rich betting. The

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reason they're stories is because it happens so rarely.

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Speaker 1: That is such an important point because it's the same

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essentially as going to Vegas and think it's you're going

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to be like a super winner winning the lottery or whatever.

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Speaker 3: It's one hear about the stories because they're rare. That's

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such a good point, right.

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Speaker 4: A bet is a bet as a bet like this

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is the thing, Like I when I go to Vegas,

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I'm like, I'm spending twenty dollars on the slots and

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that's it, yep, rightly, because you know why, because I'm

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not gonna I'm literally going to spend it.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to lose it.

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Speaker 4: I count on losing it.

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Speaker 2: That's my and this is why I tell people to

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invest in crypto. I go, look, that's totally appropriate. We've

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made a lot of money in crypto as well. But

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you need to be honest with yourself. And they go,

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what do you mean? And I go, that's not an investment,

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it's a bet. No, that's not true.

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Speaker 5: And I go, does crypto have any cash flows?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 5: Do they own any assets?

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Speaker 1: No?

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Speaker 5: Can you project their cash flows out into the future. No? Okay,

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So it's a bet. Great period, it's a bet. It's

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a bet. It's a bet.

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Speaker 2: And but the one other thing I would tell young

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people is, even though I say don't bet on it,

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download the app and watch these things. Start understanding the

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game of probabilities, Start looking at how those probabilities weigh

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into each other, Start looking at the way markets price them,

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start looking for price inefficiencies right, meaning we should have

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all laid money that the US was gonna bomb. I

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ran the second that carrier moved into the straight or

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hormone exactly.

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Speaker 5: You should have done it right.

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Speaker 2: But in understanding these things, the other thing that I

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want young people to understand is watch how much more

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often betting markets are right than any pundit you listen

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to right.

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Speaker 3: Right, because you got skin in the game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent, and it's people, it's people putting.

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You can always trust information more when somebody's got skin

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behind it, right, meaning, oh.

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Speaker 5: You're really sure about that? Yeah, one hundred percent. Want

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to bet on it?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 5: Right, Well you walk into a betting more and everybody's

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laid down some skin.

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Speaker 2: So it's it. You're gonna watch these markets proliferate. You're

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gonna watch them play a bigger and bigger role into society.

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You're gonna watch them get used more to hedge things.

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Speaker 5: So is it a good thing?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so, just because I think that we

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have over financialized everything. Everything now is a video game

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that can potentially pay you money. Social media is YouTube

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is video game, you know, everything is, and so I

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think it really encourages people to live in an artificial environment.

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So I'm not a fan of that. But will there

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be like just just like social media? Right, people say

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how bad social media is. I will tell you right now,

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Bullwark would not be in the place that we are

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without social media.

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Speaker 5: Oh several yeah, the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, right, So it's all about how you use it.

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People that use it correctly. I think it's gonna be wonderful.

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Speaker 5: Right, there's gonna be a lot of the gal.

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Speaker 1: Like placing a bet that you are controlling the outcome

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of You say that again, Mark, I said, placing a

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bet that you are actually controlling the outcome of.

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Speaker 3: Is that's that? That seems unethical on every level, you

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know what I mean?

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Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, it is.

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Speaker 2: And that's going to be one of the tough things

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about regulating these markets, right, and you're going to see

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I really I don't even want to go to too

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far down that path, but I don't understand how you're

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going to get around not seeing bad things happen because

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people bet on it.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's.

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Speaker 3: That's really scary, you know.

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Speaker 2: And I don't want to be the person thinking about

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worst case scenarios. But when I look at human beings

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and the way we are, craziness you see in the

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world today. Do you think there are people out there

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that wouldn't make a bet that would pay them a

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million dollars and then go do something horrific?

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Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, they happen absolutely.

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Speaker 3: If a guy went streaking for two hundred and fifty grand. Yeah,

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people will.

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Speaker 2: Do it, I mean going streak it for less.

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Speaker 1: And this is why we love you, and this is

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why we send everybody to your podcast and to your seminars,

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and people really should love talking to you because you're

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an actual conservative and you're shameless about it, and so

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our audience should all be putting their money with you.

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Tell us, tell them how they can do that.

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Speaker 5: That's a well, thank you.

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Speaker 2: So easy to find Borercapitalmanagement dot com, Know Your Risk

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podcast dot com. That's our podcast that we put out

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every single day. Try to keep it to twenty five

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thirty minutes. Cover everything important in the world, economics and

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finance with no nonsense. So yeah, just Borercapitalmanagement dot com

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Know your Risk Podcast.

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Speaker 5: We're not hard to find.

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Speaker 3: Awesome, Thank you. That sad.

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Speaker 5: Thanks ladies,