1 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: If you want to support the show and get the 2 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:42,439 episodes early and ad free, head on over to Freemanbeyond 3 00:00:42,439 --> 00:00:46,159 the Wall dot com forward slash Support. I want to 4 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,840 explain something right now. If you support me through substack 5 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,560 or Patreon, you have access to an RSS feed that 6 00:00:55,600 --> 00:01:00,000 you can plug into any podcatcher, including Apple, and you'll 7 00:01:00,119 --> 00:01:03,079 be able to listen to the episodes through there. If 8 00:01:03,079 --> 00:01:06,640 you support me through a subscribe, star, gum Road or 9 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,239 on my website directly, I will send you a link 10 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:12,760 where you can download the file and you can listen 11 00:01:12,799 --> 00:01:16,879 to it any way you wish. I really appreciate the 12 00:01:16,879 --> 00:01:20,200 support everyone gives me. It keeps a show going. It 13 00:01:20,239 --> 00:01:23,799 allows me to basically put out an episode every day now, 14 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,959 and I'm not going to stop. I'm just going to accelerate. 15 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,640 I think sometimes you see that I'm putting out two 16 00:01:30,439 --> 00:01:35,920 even three a day, and yeah, can't do it without you, 17 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,719 So thank you for the support. Head on over to 18 00:01:38,719 --> 00:01:43,000 Freeman Beyond the Wall dot com, forward slash support and 19 00:01:43,079 --> 00:01:47,560 do it there. Thank you. I want to welcome everyone 20 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,599 back to the Pekingana Show. John Fieldhouse is back. What's 21 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:52,719 going on? John? How are you doing? 22 00:01:53,159 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: Dood well? 23 00:01:53,599 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: Sir all right. I wanted to have you on because 24 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,799 I haven't really had a chance to talk on the 25 00:01:59,799 --> 00:02:02,879 show show. On the official show about about Siria. We 26 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,159 talked about talked about it a little bit on the 27 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,840 New Inquisition show that I'm doing with Stormy and Astral 28 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,319 and Thomas and Jay Burden and d is going to 29 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:19,680 be in there. But I wanted to dedicate something to this, 30 00:02:19,879 --> 00:02:22,439 and uh, I thought i'd have y on to talk 31 00:02:22,479 --> 00:02:25,879 about it. So, I mean, I know you have to 32 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,159 be up on Syria. You probably know everything about Yeah, 33 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,280 probably up to date on Obama and Syria. You know 34 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,879 that that whole time, everything that went on there. Huh. 35 00:02:37,319 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: Sorry, not by any stretch of the imagination. But I've 36 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,360 got a good, i think, grasp of what's publicly available, 37 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,840 which is definitely not the whole picture. Yeah. 38 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,039 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not saying that you even if you did 39 00:02:50,199 --> 00:02:52,520 know anything that you couldn't say, I wouldn't try to 40 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,960 get that out of you. But so this one is 41 00:02:57,039 --> 00:03:02,800 looking like as you as you said in your text 42 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,960 this morning, it's part two of the moderate rebels. What 43 00:03:07,319 --> 00:03:08,000 do you mean by that? 44 00:03:10,479 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 2: During the late Obama years and which ended more or 45 00:03:14,319 --> 00:03:16,960 less with the Trump taking office, we used to hear 46 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,360 so much about the moderate rebels, the guys who were 47 00:03:20,039 --> 00:03:23,080 neither the secular Baptists, which are you know, definitely the 48 00:03:23,159 --> 00:03:26,840 enemies of the United States and Israel or isis other 49 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,240 groups that we pretended that, you know, the media and 50 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:33,680 John McCain notoriously would call the moderate rebels, which I 51 00:03:33,719 --> 00:03:36,759 will remind everybody there's no such thing. I mean, me 52 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,759 and you were moderate rebels because we have podcasts. People 53 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,560 overthrowing their government through armedforce are not moderates in any 54 00:03:43,639 --> 00:03:44,280 sense of the word. 55 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, one hundred percent. So you sent over this 56 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:55,800 article from the Suffon Soufon Center, and it's from two 57 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,120 days ago. We're recording this in the fourth This is 58 00:03:58,159 --> 00:04:01,639 from the second and it's I guess it's just a 59 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:06,840 short overview of what's going on there. So I guess 60 00:04:06,879 --> 00:04:10,240 I can start reading it and just jump in when 61 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,520 you want to say something here, yeah, because it's pretty short. 62 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,879 Speaker 2: But yeah, okay, for a background, this is the Sufon Center. 63 00:04:17,959 --> 00:04:22,360 This is from the center run by Ali Soufon. He 64 00:04:22,519 --> 00:04:26,600 was famous because if you've watched any documentary or fictionalized 65 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:32,319 history film about nine to eleven, he was the ethnic 66 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,480 Arab American FBI agent operating out of New York City 67 00:04:36,519 --> 00:04:40,240 who was supposedly about to break open the whole nine 68 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:44,680 to eleven case right before the right before it happened, 69 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,480 except the CIA cut him out, which, based upon what's 70 00:04:48,519 --> 00:04:51,600 publicly available, that seems more or less true. Anyways, he 71 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,839 did some stuff throughout the war and terror. He was 72 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,839 one of the FBI agents deployed to Afghanistan or initial 73 00:04:58,879 --> 00:05:02,720 fighting I believe was in Iraq. I'm not mistaken. He's 74 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:07,839 the same guy who interviewed Saddam Hussein, but I don't 75 00:05:07,879 --> 00:05:10,279 quote me on that. And again, after he retired, he 76 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:15,959 does a think tank that does publicly available intel briefs, 77 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,160 and this is one that you're linking to, right there 78 00:05:18,399 --> 00:05:22,519 is one basically about the fighting that kicked off like 79 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,199 three or four days ago, as it were. 80 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, So this is titled Rebel groups over 81 00:05:28,399 --> 00:05:33,240 run Aleppo, reigniting Syrian Civil War and challenging Asad. He's 82 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,199 got some there's some bullet points before we jump in 83 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,360 and you if you want to comment on these and 84 00:05:38,399 --> 00:05:40,519 go right ahead. An alliance of. 85 00:05:40,519 --> 00:05:45,959 Speaker 2: Rebel force ahead, I'm sorry, go ahead, An. 86 00:05:45,879 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 1: Alliance of rebel forces led by a Hayat Tarhier al Sham, 87 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:56,040 HTS from now on has successfully captured Aleppo, Syria's largest city, 88 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,680 in a substantive and unexpected shift in Syria's civil war dynamics. 89 00:06:01,879 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just going to say, I want the 90 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,399 reader to be aware that he mentions every other group 91 00:06:06,439 --> 00:06:09,600 he mentions. He says explicitly what foreign powers and what 92 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,800 factions within Syria they're affiliated with. But I don't think 93 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,639 he ever mentions who HTS is affiliated, which to me 94 00:06:17,759 --> 00:06:18,399 is red flat. 95 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:24,439 Speaker 1: Okay, So who is who's HTS associated with that? 96 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: I obviously I don't know, and I'm not an investigator, 97 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:28,680 and if I knew that information, I couldn't be on 98 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,959 the show. But it appears to be that they are 99 00:06:31,959 --> 00:06:35,480 that Salaphus faction that was a breakoff of al Qaida, 100 00:06:36,879 --> 00:06:39,560 and they broke off from that group that became ISIS, 101 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,480 so they weren't ISIS proper, but essentially their cousins, and 102 00:06:43,399 --> 00:06:46,079 they're that group that in some way apparently has had 103 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,439 back channels with the US and or Israel, which is 104 00:06:49,439 --> 00:06:52,160 not to say that they're run by the US or Israel, 105 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,600 but they're definitely receiving I think it's fair to say 106 00:06:54,639 --> 00:06:58,680 aid and encouragement from our government or the state of Israel. 107 00:06:59,439 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: Okay. In response to the rival offensive, Syrian government forces 108 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,120 have pulled back from several positions across Aleppo and are 109 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,720 reportedly awaiting reinforcements to launch a counter offensive against the 110 00:07:10,759 --> 00:07:16,040 insurgents in the city. Have you heard that about Russian 111 00:07:16,079 --> 00:07:21,959 air strikes on HTS. 112 00:07:20,439 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, so there, I have seen multiple sources say that 113 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,360 they're both Russian and Syrian air force strikes. Apparently they 114 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,360 have some sort of graded chain of command for there 115 00:07:29,399 --> 00:07:33,199 that have made strikes against Aleppo, the area and other 116 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:37,839 places in the country where rebels are fighting. And there's 117 00:07:37,879 --> 00:07:41,639 a recurring theme that Russia has problems because a huge 118 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,879 amount of their forces have been diverted from Syria to 119 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,160 fight in Ukraine. So essentially, I think it's fair to 120 00:07:48,199 --> 00:07:52,319 say that Thomas's thesis that this is indirectly a move 121 00:07:52,439 --> 00:07:57,360 against both has the law and in order to aid 122 00:07:57,839 --> 00:08:01,879 forces aid Israel in their fight, as well as a 123 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,800 move do weaken Russia once again visa the Ukraine. I 124 00:08:05,839 --> 00:08:07,120 think that's completely valid. 125 00:08:08,639 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: Throughout parts of northwestern Syria, the rebels have started setting 126 00:08:12,079 --> 00:08:17,480 up and building upon already established proto governance structures indicating 127 00:08:17,519 --> 00:08:20,480 their ambitions to government and maintain control. 128 00:08:21,519 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 2: Up two big things here a number one, how would 129 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,199 you know that you know, when you have a dynamic 130 00:08:27,319 --> 00:08:30,959 military operation in under a week, you're going to tell 131 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,240 me that you're engaged in building government's proto governments. Number one, 132 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,559 that's probably true. Number two, that's the kind of thing 133 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,759 that has Blah has done that I think all Western 134 00:08:41,879 --> 00:08:45,840 counterinsurgency is looked at and said, you know, essentially us 135 00:08:46,039 --> 00:08:49,480 and or our proxies need to do. So that's you know, 136 00:08:49,519 --> 00:08:52,639 a reasonable thing for people who are in the governments 137 00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:57,279 that represent us would do. But again, how would you 138 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:01,720 know you have a dynamic, fluid chaos situation on a battlefield? 139 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,600 And how would you know even if that's happening directly, 140 00:09:05,639 --> 00:09:08,440 you probably wouldn't see it happen as an intelligence official 141 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:09,679 from a cleared party country. 142 00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:12,879 Speaker 1: You said two things. There was did you have cover 143 00:09:12,919 --> 00:09:14,399 both of them? Or was there another one? 144 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,399 Speaker 2: Oh? The issue of number one that I think this 145 00:09:18,519 --> 00:09:23,000 is something where apparently they've copied from Hesbal law as 146 00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:25,480 a counterpoint, you know, taking that part of the strategy. 147 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,879 But again the other one is how would we know sure. 148 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,759 Speaker 1: Okay, right, next last ballet point. The conflict in the 149 00:09:32,799 --> 00:09:36,039 area epitomizes the importance of focusing on both state and 150 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,799 non state actors in an era of great power competition, 151 00:09:40,399 --> 00:09:44,679 with various substate armed group armed groups active in the 152 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:48,519 country and numerous countries jocking for position and seeking to 153 00:09:48,639 --> 00:09:51,080 back their respective proxies and clients. 154 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 2: This. 155 00:09:52,519 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 1: Why did I immediately think of fourth generation warfare when 156 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:56,279 I was reading this? 157 00:09:57,039 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's essentially it would be example of that. But 158 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,519 that's a really cool summary sentence right there, because that 159 00:10:06,639 --> 00:10:09,360 sort of is what you would have as a thesis 160 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:12,440 statement on a PhD thesis when you're talking about a 161 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,639 war after the fact. So I'm not saying there's anything 162 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,960 directly nefarious or untoward happening here. I am absolutely not 163 00:10:19,039 --> 00:10:22,799 suggesting that. But this reads a lot like people reading 164 00:10:22,879 --> 00:10:26,000 things into this that you would not know that soon 165 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:26,720 in the fight. 166 00:10:29,159 --> 00:10:31,279 Speaker 1: Let's read a little bit of this article, then stop 167 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,799 me whenever. An alliance to Syrian rebel groups launched a 168 00:10:34,799 --> 00:10:38,960 significant offensive in Aleppo on Wednesday, November twenty seventh, marking 169 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:42,200 a dramatic escalation in the Syrian Civil War, which has 170 00:10:42,279 --> 00:10:46,440 raised raged since twenty eleven. But gone through long stretches 171 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,200 of semi dormancy at times in certain parts of the country, 172 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:55,799 particularly over the last several years. The offensive led by 173 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:01,399 HTS Organization for the Liberation of the LEVANT, a US 174 00:11:01,399 --> 00:11:07,279 designation foreign terrorist organization with historicized to al Qaeda, since renounced, 175 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:12,559 is led by Abu mah Muhammad al Jelani, who was 176 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,480 also at the helm of the group's predecessor Jabat al 177 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,519 Nusra Al Nusra Front and then Jabat Fata al Sham 178 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:26,759 Front for the Conquest of Syria. The LEVANT, al Jalani 179 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:31,200 first wore Bayattu, then al Qaeda leader. I meant al 180 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:36,200 al al Zawahiri. I've said that so many times. I've 181 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,200 said that name so many times. When I was recording 182 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,799 with Scott Worker, how am I stumbling over this? I 183 00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:46,039 meant al Zawahiri back in April twenty thirteen before a 184 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:51,679 public fallout in separation four years later. The original group 185 00:11:51,799 --> 00:11:54,960 Al Nusra was progeny of the split that went on 186 00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:57,919 to produce the Islamic State under the leadership of Abu 187 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:04,639 Baker albag Daddy. HTS functions as part of a broader 188 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:09,360 coalition called the Military Operations Command, which was proclaimed in 189 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,159 response to alleged escalating attacks by the Syrian army and 190 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:20,080 Iranian backed militias. Elements of the rebel coalition also backed 191 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,399 by Turkey, which provides funding and equips to rebels to 192 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:28,879 keep pressure on the Assad regime. The rebels successful entry 193 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:33,039 into Aleppo represents the first such breakthrough since Bshar al 194 00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:37,879 Assad Syrian government retook the city in twenty sixteen. The 195 00:12:37,919 --> 00:12:41,399 offensive scope has also seen numerous villages and id Lib 196 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,000 and Aleppo Province fall to the forces as the rebels 197 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:49,080 are pushing south to Hama, Syria's fourth largest city. 198 00:12:49,919 --> 00:12:51,879 Speaker 2: I do want the reader to point notice all of 199 00:12:51,919 --> 00:12:54,679 a sudden that you know, secession is a good thing 200 00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:56,840 in their worldview, all all of a sudden. 201 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: I also would like, yeah, all right, that's funny. I 202 00:13:03,159 --> 00:13:06,720 would like to say that there are reports right now 203 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,679 from multiple from a couple sources, but not one hundred percent. 204 00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:16,879 I wouldn't be say I wouldn't feel confident saying one 205 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,679 hundred percent that they have reached Hamah and they are 206 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,360 inside the city. 207 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, and today, again, a battlefield is fluid, dynamic, chaotic, 208 00:13:27,039 --> 00:13:30,399 so you're not going to get a perfect report until 209 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:31,240 after the fact. 210 00:13:31,639 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: If Ever, in response to the rebel offensive, Syrian government 211 00:13:35,879 --> 00:13:39,480 forces have pulled back from several positions across Aleppo and 212 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:44,759 are reportedly awaiting reinforcements to launch counteroffensive against the insurgents 213 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:49,720 in the city. Meanwhile, Syrian and Russian forces have conducted 214 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:53,159 limited air strikes on targets in Aleppo and surrounding areas 215 00:13:53,519 --> 00:13:57,960 which they claim have been captured by terrorist groups. However, 216 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:03,240 the scope of these air strikes has remained narrow. Russia's 217 00:14:03,399 --> 00:14:06,960 relatively limited involvement in Syria so far and its call 218 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,519 to restore order reflect the fact that Moscow has largely 219 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,799 shifted its focus to the war in Ukraine, leaving it 220 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:18,279 with insufficient will and capabilities in Syria to effectively counter 221 00:14:18,399 --> 00:14:24,159 the rebel advance. Syria's other key ally, Iran, and its 222 00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:27,720 extensive network of proxy groups, have also seen their priorities 223 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:32,039 shift over the past two years. The October seventh Hamas 224 00:14:32,039 --> 00:14:34,679 attack on Israel and the subsequent war between Israel and 225 00:14:34,679 --> 00:14:40,120 Hesbelah have diverted Iranian attention and resources way to Lebanon 226 00:14:40,279 --> 00:14:45,159 and Israel. Lebanese Hezbelah, a critical Iran back group in 227 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,440 Syria's conflict, and allied to the Asad government has increasingly 228 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,720 focused on its operations in Lebanon, where it is engaged 229 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:58,600 where it has engaged in strikes against Israel. Meanwhile, Tehran 230 00:14:58,639 --> 00:15:02,200 has recalibrated its focus towards the escalating conflict with Israel, 231 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:08,240 equally impacting its involvement in Syria. Allies of the Asad regime, 232 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:13,519 including Iranian backed Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shia groups, are however, 233 00:15:13,919 --> 00:15:17,080 present on the ground to some extent. The Popular mobil 234 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:21,960 Mobilization Forces and Iranian backed Iraqi militia has for example, 235 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,519 reportedly been deployed in the streets around Damascus. 236 00:15:27,519 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 2: I found this part interesting because there aren't that many 237 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:35,200 Pakistani Shia Shia groups. Afghan Shias are mostly the Hazaras, 238 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,279 which are an ethnically distinct group. They're part mongl We 239 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:42,720 know who they are because they have slanted eyes. And 240 00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:47,120 the Popular Mobilization Forces are all those militias that were sanctioned. 241 00:15:47,279 --> 00:15:51,080 Iraqi militias that were sanctioned and through a structure sort 242 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,960 of like National Guard Bureau, they were integrated as auxiliaries 243 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:59,559 of the Iraqi army during the war against Issus. So 244 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,320 I'm not accusing them of lying here so much as 245 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:07,120 this does not sound plausa okay. 246 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:11,559 Speaker 1: The unexpected success of the operation has caught both analysts 247 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:16,120 and Syrian government forces off guard, with reports indicating that 248 00:16:16,159 --> 00:16:20,279 government troops have withdrawn largely from Aleppo and are suffering 249 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:25,519 losses and surrounding areas. This development signals a significant shift 250 00:16:25,519 --> 00:16:28,159 in the dynamics of the conflict and raises questions about 251 00:16:28,159 --> 00:16:31,759 the stability of territory controlled by the Assad regime and 252 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,960 the capabilities of its most prominent allies Russia and Iran. 253 00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:39,799 With Moscow and Tehran and brow than other conflicts, namely 254 00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:42,840 Ukraine for the former and Gaza, Lebanon and the broader 255 00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:47,320 Middle East for the latter, the rebel forces have been 256 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,879 able to take over nearly the entire city of Aleppo, 257 00:16:51,039 --> 00:16:54,080 afeat they they did not accomplish at the height of 258 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:59,519 their power there in twenty fifteen. Throughout parts of northwestern Syria, 259 00:16:59,559 --> 00:17:03,080 the reel have started setting up and building upon already 260 00:17:03,159 --> 00:17:06,960 established proto governance structures, indicating their ambition to government and 261 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,839 maintain control. You already commented on that some of these 262 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:16,160 efforts date back years, with sophisticated attempts to subsidize the 263 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,200 cost of food and stabilize the banking and energy sectors 264 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:25,119 in the areas under HTS control. The So basically when 265 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,519 they say that, they're talking about something that's that's been 266 00:17:28,559 --> 00:17:31,480 going on for a while, very much like the like 267 00:17:31,519 --> 00:17:34,640 the Taliban does in Afghanistan, where they basically become the 268 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,720 government in certain areas. 269 00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 2: Exactly, and like I said, that's something that has be 270 00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:43,160 laws known for. Especially they take over or would largely 271 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,720 fill governance roles at a time when the Lebanese state 272 00:17:47,079 --> 00:17:50,079 was largely hollow, wasn't doing its job. And not only 273 00:17:50,079 --> 00:17:52,200 did they do the things that in a Western state 274 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,960 we would think of, they would also very often run 275 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,400 hospitals that were largely done for charity. They would run 276 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,519 new state or TV station where obviously they controlled the 277 00:18:02,519 --> 00:18:05,480 news output, but they would be the main TV provider 278 00:18:05,519 --> 00:18:09,400 in certain areas in you know, social welfare things, and 279 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,119 Hesblah was known for doing things beyond just twelve or Sheiites. 280 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,279 They would do things like Christians and other groups, because 281 00:18:16,279 --> 00:18:20,559 again in this kind of war, humanitarianism is a weapon. 282 00:18:20,799 --> 00:18:23,039 As much as you know the AKA. 283 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: The Kurdish YPG militia, which also has expanded its presence 284 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,839 during the Aleppo offensive has clashed with some rebel forces. 285 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,079 According to the Syrian Human Rights Observations, two hundred and 286 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,400 seventy seven people have been killed in the northwestern Syria 287 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:39,480 offensive so far. 288 00:18:40,039 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we talked before we were recording Turkey's main 289 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,759 interest in the area, other than just not having civil 290 00:18:46,799 --> 00:18:50,680 war break across, you know, go across his border, as 291 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,480 well as not having a unified Syria that could attack them, 292 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,680 is there very much concerned about the Kurdish separatist groups 293 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:03,359 because that mountainous part of its at north eastern Syria 294 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,920 that extends into Iraq, Iran as well as up into Turkey. 295 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:12,400 That mountain's area is historically what was Kurdistan and that 296 00:19:12,599 --> 00:19:16,000 ethnically distinct group that all those countries are concerned about 297 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,400 those people de fact those seceding, which is why Turkey 298 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,359 in the recent past has sent troops into Iraq even 299 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,759 when the US forces were there, I sent forces into Syria, 300 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,160 has been willing to fight those groups that even when 301 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,200 the Syrian government had you know, essentially had a dayton 302 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:34,079 with those groups. 303 00:19:35,599 --> 00:19:38,599 Speaker 1: The Assad regime has faced significant challenges in recent Oh 304 00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:41,039 and also it says two hundred and seventy seven people 305 00:19:41,039 --> 00:19:45,039 have been killed, is no. I mean that is a 306 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:46,400 guesstimate at best. 307 00:19:46,599 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, your initial reports are always wrong in terms of 308 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,960 casually so maybe, I mean maybe there was two maybe 309 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,319 there was two million. How would I know. 310 00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, even in covering the Spanish Civil War, there were 311 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:07,119 like reports of a thousand in like, oh, there's a 312 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,319 thousand in this on mark Grave over there, and then 313 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,359 they finally get to dig it up and there's twelve 314 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:12,039 people in there. 315 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. And even best case scenario, initial reports fog a war, 316 00:20:17,319 --> 00:20:18,480 it's a vague gas. 317 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. The Asade regime has faced significant challenges in recent years, 318 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:29,160 including a struggling economy and increasing geopolitical isolation. Do we 319 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,359 know that their economy has been struggling. I mean, we 320 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,079 hear that Russia's economy is struggling since the sanctions went 321 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,200 into play, and that's bullshit until very recently. 322 00:20:38,559 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably just because of their geographic location, the 323 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,319 fact they just got a civil war, and that they're 324 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,160 you know, mostly isolated by American allies on different sides, 325 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,160 not to mention part of their country's still occupied by 326 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:56,480 US forces. So I imagine their economy is suffering even in 327 00:20:56,519 --> 00:20:59,400 the best case scenario. But how bad? Who knows. 328 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: This next sentence is is something Aside and his inner 329 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,680 circle have turned Syria into a narco state, fueling the 330 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,799 captigon epidemic throughout the region and relying on the drug 331 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,880 trade as an economic lifeline. 332 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,279 Speaker 2: Yeah. I tried to see what I could find on that. 333 00:21:19,319 --> 00:21:21,839 I have no idea what captagon is. I found nothing 334 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,519 on the drug trade in particular as far as them 335 00:21:25,559 --> 00:21:28,319 relying on it as an economic lifeline. I mean, that's 336 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,319 completely plausible, but I haven't found any good sources on 337 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,640 this one way or the other. So it's the kind 338 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:36,960 of thing go ahead. 339 00:21:37,759 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: Isn't Captagon that stuff that was supposed to turn people 340 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,480 into super like super soldiers? 341 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,279 Speaker 2: Yea, I think that was the Marvel comics and maybe 342 00:21:50,279 --> 00:21:55,160 it was, but I don't know if making the world 343 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:55,839 a better place. 344 00:21:57,319 --> 00:22:01,039 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like supposed to be for add but it's 345 00:22:03,279 --> 00:22:06,759 apparently they say, oh if if soldiers take it and 346 00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:08,759 high enough, and they say they were saying this about 347 00:22:08,759 --> 00:22:13,000 Hamas after October seventh, they were all hopped up on 348 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,799 on this what is what's it called phenethyline something like that, 349 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,240 And it's supposed to be some kind of amphetamine that uh, 350 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,119 just causes, you know, turns people into blind it gives 351 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,119 them a blind rage kind of thing. 352 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:32,079 Speaker 2: That so far, you know, no downsides identify. Seriously, I 353 00:22:32,079 --> 00:22:34,279 don't know. It's it's the kind of thing you would 354 00:22:34,279 --> 00:22:36,599 get an intelligence agency, the report on that they may 355 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,839 or may not know that they're going to give you 356 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,920 a vague idea because the other guys are keeping secret. 357 00:22:41,039 --> 00:22:45,240 But I found nothing on this that was credible from 358 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:46,400 me either any position. 359 00:22:48,599 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: There are a speculation that Damascus's focus on this ilicit 360 00:22:52,079 --> 00:22:55,319 trade has distracted it from other pressing issues, including the 361 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,079 readiness of its military forces and secret security services, which 362 00:22:59,319 --> 00:23:02,039 which suffer from low morale and high levels of corruption. 363 00:23:03,279 --> 00:23:07,200 I immediately just thought that the branch Davidians that was 364 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,079 like the main thing that got the army that they 365 00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:15,480 were able to prove a drug nexus quote unquote prove 366 00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:18,160 a drug nexus, and that's how they were able to 367 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,839 get what they used from Fort Hood for free instead 368 00:23:22,839 --> 00:23:23,839 of having to pay for it. 369 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, it's it's all. 370 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,640 Speaker 1: Everyone hates drug everyone hates drug dealers, so you know, 371 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,680 there's pay them as drug dealers, and that's just another 372 00:23:37,759 --> 00:23:38,920 thing to add to the pile. 373 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, as far as you know, low morale. They're essentially occupyed, 374 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,680 functioning as an occupying force in their own country. So yeah, 375 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,720 low morale is part of it. Corruption. It's a Middle 376 00:23:49,759 --> 00:23:55,920 Eastern security force. They're all corrupt. But I'm not anti Arab, 377 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:02,119 but understand that what we would think of as horrible, closed, 378 00:24:02,759 --> 00:24:09,680 corrupt mafia systems, Arabs called that society. So are they 379 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,559 corrupt by our standards? Yes, but you know, so is 380 00:24:13,599 --> 00:24:16,440 everything else in this part of the world, except for Israel, 381 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:17,759 which is as its own problems. 382 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,559 Speaker 1: The recent successful rebel offensive in Aleppo underscores the ongoing 383 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:28,519 vulnerabilities of Asad's government. Despite its heavy reliance on external support, 384 00:24:28,559 --> 00:24:32,880 particularly from Iran and Russia, Assad's forces remain weak, with 385 00:24:33,079 --> 00:24:37,440 these allies failing to provide the decisive backing needed to 386 00:24:37,519 --> 00:24:41,119 counter the opposition's advances. Again, this just sounds like what 387 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,599 they've been saying about Russia all along. Russia's falling apart Russia. Yeah, 388 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,960 they're running out of ammunition, you know, I mean, this 389 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,359 just sounds like the typical propaganda you would get from 390 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:53,039 one side. 391 00:24:53,319 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's also the kind of thing you would say 392 00:24:55,599 --> 00:24:59,920 regardless when you know your enemy surprises you. Dan any extent. 393 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,240 This isn't so much in depth intelligence, you know, insight 394 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,039 as this is like, I know, shit basic, you know, 395 00:25:08,279 --> 00:25:10,079 with summary of what happens when you're in deck. 396 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:17,319 Speaker 1: Compounding Assad's difficulties is a deteriorating relationship between Damascus and Tehran, 397 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,640 exacerbated by Asad's recent diplomatic outreach to the Gulf States. 398 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,960 Efforts to normalize relations have yielded little tangible progress, further 399 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:31,640 straining serias alliances. Despite these challenges, the regime should have 400 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,759 anticipated such developments. The Aleppo offensive by rebel forces has 401 00:25:35,759 --> 00:25:40,200 apparently been planned, had been planned from mid October initially, 402 00:25:40,279 --> 00:25:44,559 but was delayed when Turkey intervened, altering the timeline and 403 00:25:44,599 --> 00:25:48,240 dynamics of the conflict. This shift in strategy suggests that 404 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,279 the Assad regime's precarious position may be even more fragile 405 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:53,400 than previously thought. 406 00:25:54,279 --> 00:25:56,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, some of those things. Number one, their outreach to 407 00:25:56,799 --> 00:26:00,279 the Gulf States, or Iran has had go out reach 408 00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:04,079 to the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia. So is that 409 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:08,079 something that you know has created a cleavage between Tehran 410 00:26:08,319 --> 00:26:12,440 and Damascus. Maybe, but I don't see why it should 411 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,400 since Tehran's doing the exact same thing and on purpose. 412 00:26:18,759 --> 00:26:22,079 As far as the planning of an operation in mid October, 413 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,160 I mean realistically, that's sort of like the minimum amount 414 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,279 of time you would need to plan something of this type. 415 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:34,119 So you know, that's again less intelligence inside as sort 416 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,640 of like you know, a basic statement of how quickly 417 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,039 you could do something. And by saying the Turkey intervene 418 00:26:40,079 --> 00:26:44,240 that again it gets back to that issue of sort 419 00:26:44,279 --> 00:26:47,559 of showing how Turkey and NATO, because again Turkey is 420 00:26:47,559 --> 00:26:50,359 a member of NATO, how they seem to directly play 421 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,799 a role in when they can and cannot operate, which 422 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,680 to me is the most important thing said. 423 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: So far, the implications are vast. The largely stagnant battle 424 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,640 lines have shifted dramatically over the course of four days. Additionally, 425 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,720 the Syrian Civil War, which became the golden opportunity for 426 00:27:06,759 --> 00:27:10,319 sooning extremists to fill the power vacuum culminating in the 427 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:14,079 declaration of the Islamic State Caliphate in June twenty fourteen, 428 00:27:14,799 --> 00:27:17,920 renders an objective assessment of the rebels and their goals 429 00:27:18,039 --> 00:27:24,039 incredibly important. While there are signs that minorities and nonsunis 430 00:27:24,039 --> 00:27:27,160 will be respected by even extreme elements of the rebels 431 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:32,440 such as HTS terrorist organizations participation in the offensive causes 432 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:33,200 some alarm. 433 00:27:33,759 --> 00:27:36,279 Speaker 2: What signs would you see in the middle of an 434 00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:42,880 attack when again dynamic, fluid and chaotic, what indication is 435 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,000 there of that? I mean again, Hesbelaw is known for 436 00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:49,720 exercising For that matter, all the Iranian proxy groups are 437 00:27:49,759 --> 00:27:53,440 known for exercising a great deal of discipline over their forces, 438 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,799 to the point that they stop attacking groups that are 439 00:27:56,799 --> 00:28:01,279 declared non targets by whatever the command authority. Famously, during 440 00:28:01,279 --> 00:28:06,759 some of the fighting in Iraq, you know, Shiai groups 441 00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:09,920 that were explicitly connected to Iran would simply stop attacking 442 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,920 Americans in the Iraqi government at certain points in order 443 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,599 to you know, focus on Sunni groups. So it seems 444 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,039 almost as if they're reading the best part of Iranian 445 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,519 proxy discipline into this group, which again, how would you 446 00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:26,640 know that at this point? 447 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: The Wiger led Turkistan Islamic Party, for example, has said 448 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,640 it was involved in the insurgent offensive, a development sure 449 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:41,799 to cause concern in Beijing. To safeguard legitimacy and prevent atrocities, 450 00:28:41,839 --> 00:28:44,480 it will be crucial for the rebel forces to expunge 451 00:28:45,599 --> 00:28:50,640 radical elements. Additionally, the rebel forces will likely see significant 452 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,079 counter offensive. In the earlier years of the civil war, 453 00:28:54,119 --> 00:28:58,000 a common tactic by ASSAD forces was to withdraw, reinforce 454 00:28:58,039 --> 00:28:59,880 their position, and then counter it. 455 00:29:00,119 --> 00:29:02,799 Speaker 2: Fact. Yeah, the part where they said there is evidence 456 00:29:02,839 --> 00:29:07,279 of Chinese Wigers there people from Chinese Turkistan, which is, 457 00:29:07,519 --> 00:29:10,519 you know, the far western part of the PRC that 458 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,519 is not ethnically Chinese. And there's like four different countries 459 00:29:14,519 --> 00:29:17,480 they'd have to move through in order to get there, 460 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:26,319 a bunch of those countries which are effectively controlled by Iran. Like, 461 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,039 how would that happen? That's a very interesting case. And 462 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,359 again I'm not saying they're lying, but it's like, how 463 00:29:32,359 --> 00:29:35,680 would you know this other than the initial reports? And 464 00:29:35,759 --> 00:29:42,039 this seems to be suggesting it's like every group that 465 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,559 hates the United States less than their enemies is suddenly there, 466 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,839 which is the most interesting part, said so or one 467 00:29:50,839 --> 00:29:53,039 of the most interesting details, said I think. 468 00:29:54,839 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: Maybe the Wigers got there the same way they made 469 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,440 it to Afghanistan to train with the cia A in 470 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,039 the summer of two thousand and one. 471 00:30:02,599 --> 00:30:06,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, at least you know that part of Afghanistan 472 00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:10,559 borders China in some places you know, Yeah, yeah, yeah, 473 00:30:10,799 --> 00:30:14,119 there's no borders there. That's sort of like when Haitians 474 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,240 show up at the Rio grand It's like, you know, 475 00:30:17,079 --> 00:30:19,920 it takes some doing to put Haitians on the Rio Grant. 476 00:30:20,839 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not good swimmers, all right, So all right. 477 00:30:26,759 --> 00:30:31,599 Implications extend beyond Syria. The country is the key transshipment 478 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:37,359 point for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Cuts force to 479 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,599 produce weapons that are funnels A has be lot in Lebanon. 480 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,720 With the ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel seemingly again 481 00:30:44,759 --> 00:30:48,799 in question with Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, HESBELA will 482 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,960 likely continue to rely on this now potentially interrupted supply. 483 00:30:52,759 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 2: Chain motiv to why you would want this attack? 484 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 1: Right there you go. According to Channel twelve, Israeli intelligence 485 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,079 officials believe that Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been negatively 486 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:07,920 impacted by the rebel forces. 487 00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:13,799 Speaker 2: Well that's sort of a no shit statement. Yes, there's 488 00:31:13,799 --> 00:31:17,079 a war there, so it's really hard to move there. Okay, 489 00:31:17,599 --> 00:31:19,440 cool intelligence, tell me something more. 490 00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: Additionally, while the Assad regime has allowed Iran and its 491 00:31:25,759 --> 00:31:28,759 proxies to operate within Syria, it has been careful to 492 00:31:28,759 --> 00:31:33,599 not provoke Israel directly. Depending on how the situation evolves 493 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,440 and whether Hesbela acts emboldened in Syria, this may change 494 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,440 Israeli perception of the threat emanating from Syria. 495 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, and not to mention Israels occupying the Golowan Heights 496 00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,400 has claimed that territory and a large part of the 497 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,880 population there, it's not really clear if they're citizens of 498 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,799 Israel war Syria now to include a bunch of these 499 00:31:53,839 --> 00:31:57,160 people are Oloites, you know, people from the Assads extended 500 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:58,440 ethnosectarian group. 501 00:31:59,039 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: So yep. 502 00:32:01,839 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, this whole area is not you know, foreign to 503 00:32:05,599 --> 00:32:08,440 Israel in terms of their strategic planning. Well. 504 00:32:08,519 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, and Syria is another one of those places that 505 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,680 has multiple, multiple groups, multiple ethnic and religious groups, just 506 00:32:14,759 --> 00:32:15,640 like Lebanon. 507 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, and because again Lebanon was originally part of Syria, 508 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,079 the French carved it out in order to create an 509 00:32:22,079 --> 00:32:27,799 explicitly Christian state. Unfortunately Christians do not pick babies like Muslims, 510 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:35,039 so that's become an issue. But yeah, it has those issues. 511 00:32:35,079 --> 00:32:36,880 And a big part of what the Assad regime has 512 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:41,319 done is yeah, they're secular, but they're sort of secular 513 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,279 more in the American than the European sense. And since that, 514 00:32:45,279 --> 00:32:47,720 you know, there's a default religious assumption that the state 515 00:32:47,759 --> 00:32:52,039 represents as opposed to the state being by contemporary America 516 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,759 aggressive or harmful or opposition oppositional to a religious establishment. 517 00:32:57,759 --> 00:33:00,000 That makes sense. 518 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 1: Conflicting Syria epitomizes the importance of both state and non 519 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:07,279 state actors in an era of great power competition, with 520 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,000 various substate armed groups active in the country and numerous 521 00:33:11,039 --> 00:33:14,960 countries jocking for position and seeking to back their respective 522 00:33:15,039 --> 00:33:20,920 proxies and clients. That's probably one of the most important 523 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,599 things for people to understand about Syria. 524 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a good example of something that's ever 525 00:33:25,559 --> 00:33:28,759 green from this right. And it's again it's not so 526 00:33:28,839 --> 00:33:31,200 much great intelligence as a good summary of the world. 527 00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:35,720 Speaker 1: The more attention and resources that Russia and Iran need 528 00:33:35,799 --> 00:33:38,240 to dedicate to Syria, the less both countries will be 529 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,799 able to focus on other pressing issues more directly related 530 00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:47,119 to their respective national interests. One immediate loser could be 531 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:51,960 a Libyan warlord Khalifa Haaftar, who receives backing from the 532 00:33:52,039 --> 00:33:59,319 Kremlin to prop up his fiefdom. Why would they met, 533 00:34:00,039 --> 00:34:04,200 Why is he mentioned here. There's no there's no reason 534 00:34:04,279 --> 00:34:07,279 to mention him here. This is just something that's inserted 535 00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:07,839 for a reason. 536 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,679 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well again obviously because is made by an American 537 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,920 so it has an American interest. The government that you 538 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:20,239 know ostensibly claims to be ours, and it's it's presented 539 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:25,280 from an American strategic interest perspective, in its allies perspective. 540 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:27,880 So that's what it tells us. And again it's one 541 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:33,840 more example of how this offensive in Syria, hopefully from 542 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:38,280 the US perspective, hopefully will sever support from a number 543 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:42,280 of actors in both Europe and the Middle East that 544 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:43,960 the United States as opposed to. 545 00:34:45,559 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: One immediate loser could be Libya, and I got that. 546 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,239 In the near term, Moscow may lean more on private 547 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,239 military and security contractors as a temporary stop gap to 548 00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:02,440 fill emergency emerging power vacuums. The incoming Trump administration will 549 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,000 have a lot on its foreign policy agenda early on, 550 00:35:05,199 --> 00:35:09,280 with Syria yet another complex situation that Washington will need 551 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:15,559 to address with urgency. To be sure. Myriad other countries Turkey, Israel, Russia, Iran, 552 00:35:15,679 --> 00:35:18,840 and several Gulf nations will also be maneuvering in response 553 00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:23,559 to shifting geopolitical dynamics within Syria and the broader region, 554 00:35:26,079 --> 00:35:28,519 which leads me to the question, and I wanted to 555 00:35:28,599 --> 00:35:32,199 ask you is a lot of people have been saying 556 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:37,440 that basically what the regime in charge is trying to 557 00:35:37,519 --> 00:35:41,440 do is trying to leave It's purposely trying to leave 558 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:46,079 Trump with the biggest possible foreign policy mess pot that 559 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:50,800 they can which would what in my opinion, I mean, 560 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:56,440 this is just my uneducated opinion, would divert what he 561 00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,960 wants to do domestically, Yeah, which would which would hurt 562 00:36:01,039 --> 00:36:01,599 them more? 563 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Darryl Cooper said a few weeks ago 564 00:36:06,039 --> 00:36:08,880 when Biden announced that they're going to be allowed to 565 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:14,440 use American and British long range arms to strike inside Russia. 566 00:36:14,039 --> 00:36:19,079 You know, historically during the lame duck period, presidential administrations 567 00:36:19,159 --> 00:36:22,000 tried to do as little as possible, tried to maintain 568 00:36:22,079 --> 00:36:26,000 the status quo and while preparing the successor of either 569 00:36:26,079 --> 00:36:28,880 party for the best case scenario to take you know, 570 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:35,480 the helm and to deal with things one second. And 571 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,199 whereas what we have right now is looks explicitly like 572 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:43,440 you know, intentional sabotage, which I think Morgoth said it 573 00:36:44,039 --> 00:36:47,800 about a week ago. It's the American system means that 574 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,400 the outgoing lame duck president has two months to basically 575 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,079 start World War three and blow up the world just 576 00:36:54,119 --> 00:36:59,400 despite you know, Orange Hitler man coming in and that. Yeah, 577 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,280 that's I think more or less what we happen at 578 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:06,960 number one. It could divert from any kind of domestic agenda. 579 00:37:07,639 --> 00:37:13,480 It also hurts the general foreign agenda the United States 580 00:37:13,599 --> 00:37:17,199 or excuse me, Trump has said explicitly, well, people accuse 581 00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,000 him of being you know, putin stooge. Is he's said 582 00:37:21,079 --> 00:37:23,079 explicitly that he wants the war to end so that 583 00:37:23,119 --> 00:37:25,679 people stop dying in a war that didn't have to happen, 584 00:37:26,079 --> 00:37:28,280 which is my perspective. I'm a hard neutral in the 585 00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,119 Ukraine War, which is, I think lots of good people 586 00:37:31,159 --> 00:37:36,679 are dying over something because American politicians decided that, you know, 587 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,480 they were going to fight into the last Russian and 588 00:37:38,559 --> 00:37:46,480 last Ukrainian. So yeah, it diverts American domestic and foreign policy, 589 00:37:46,559 --> 00:37:49,519 and it's it seems like pure malice, as if they 590 00:37:49,519 --> 00:37:51,400 don't have to live in this world in the future. 591 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, yeah, if you're going to start, if your 592 00:37:56,079 --> 00:37:58,599 intention is to start World War three, considering what's on 593 00:37:58,639 --> 00:38:02,400 the table. It seems to me you either have a 594 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,920 backup plan, like you're going to go to another planet, 595 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,559 live underground, or you're just willing to die. 596 00:38:09,119 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't think Elon is going to fly 597 00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:12,000 them to another planet. 598 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:18,760 Speaker 1: Yeah well, I hope not. What's your opinion on Some 599 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,639 people are saying that, you know, Trump has said he 600 00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:25,480 wants to end the Ukraine War, so I'll ended on 601 00:38:25,599 --> 00:38:28,719 day one. Well, that's not going to happen. It's not 602 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:29,280 to happen. 603 00:38:31,679 --> 00:38:36,159 Speaker 2: Okay. Since the beginning, American politicians seem to operate on 604 00:38:36,199 --> 00:38:41,119 the assumption that there can be a perfectly peaceful conditions. 605 00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:45,280 I've heard both American and Russian politicians say that Ukraine 606 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,599 should be completely demilitarized. And I remind everybody Ukraine sits 607 00:38:48,599 --> 00:38:51,639 in the middle of the Central Eurasian plane. It's essentially 608 00:38:51,679 --> 00:38:55,119 a large flat area, which means that it's swapped hands 609 00:38:55,159 --> 00:39:01,840 back and forth from invading armies for ever. Basically which 610 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,760 it's always going to be an arm place. There's always 611 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,440 going to be some kind of day tent in which Ukraine, 612 00:39:06,679 --> 00:39:09,599 whether it's you know, part of Greater Russia or part 613 00:39:09,639 --> 00:39:12,679 of something like the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth or part of 614 00:39:12,679 --> 00:39:15,360 the Habsburg Empire. It's always going to be a place 615 00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,719 which is it's part of one side or another. It's 616 00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,760 probably not going to be purely independent, and it's going 617 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,480 to be an armed camp. So yeah, is he gonna 618 00:39:23,519 --> 00:39:25,840 end the day one? I don't think it's possible. I 619 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,239 think hopefully he can back things off. Hopefully he could 620 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,079 reach some kind of day tent in which a solution, 621 00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:33,559 which I'm not going to say it's going to be 622 00:39:33,599 --> 00:39:35,800 good enough for all sides, but something that you know, 623 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,760 at least keeps us from going to World War three 624 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,039 over at this place for another generation and hopefully doesn't 625 00:39:44,039 --> 00:39:48,280 destroy the entirety of the population of that area. What 626 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,039 do I think Trump's going to do? I think Trump 627 00:39:50,119 --> 00:39:53,880 understands that World War three is bad for business. You know, 628 00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,559 blowing up the world's pretty bad for business. Sending Americans 629 00:39:58,559 --> 00:40:00,360 to die on the other side of the world's pretty 630 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:05,239 bad for business. Blowing up you're pretty blad for business. 631 00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,119 So I think he's he is focused on trying to 632 00:40:08,119 --> 00:40:10,760 find a solution. Do I think he's capable of finding one? 633 00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,039 I think he's more capable than anybody in the American government. 634 00:40:15,039 --> 00:40:18,280 I don't know the last couple decades. I hope he does. 635 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,280 I think day one he's probably going to be making 636 00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,440 phone calls and trying to see what he can accomplish. 637 00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:25,800 What is he going to do? I don't know. I 638 00:40:26,199 --> 00:40:30,840 know from Zelensky's latest interviews on British TV he seems 639 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,840 to be hedging and acknowledging that Ukraine is probably not 640 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,880 going to get large bounts of its territory back, while 641 00:40:37,199 --> 00:40:41,639 insisting they should have fall into the NATO umbrella, which 642 00:40:41,639 --> 00:40:44,960 again I remind you, NATO, you cannot join NATO if 643 00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,559 you have territorial disputes because you're essentially trying to create 644 00:40:48,679 --> 00:40:51,000 war where all those countries are obligated to go war 645 00:40:51,039 --> 00:40:56,000 on your behalf. So I think Zelenski is hedging his bets, 646 00:40:56,039 --> 00:40:58,639 he's acknowledging he's not going to regain all that territory 647 00:40:58,639 --> 00:41:02,760 and is trying to come to grips with reality as 648 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,519 it is. Well again, he's essentially got to placate his 649 00:41:06,559 --> 00:41:09,599 own internal hardliners so they don't assassinate him in the meantime. 650 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:16,800 Speaker 1: So what do you make of people like Sebastian Gorka, 651 00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:21,679 who's been named Senior Director for counter Terrorism also Deputy 652 00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:25,480 Assistant to the President, who was basically come out with 653 00:41:25,679 --> 00:41:29,199 some of the most insane rhetoric about Putin being a 654 00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,079 thug and we're going to take care of him. 655 00:41:31,679 --> 00:41:36,000 Speaker 2: I'm very concerned. Again, Trump is still better than Kamali. 656 00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:39,400 You know, Trump did not want to import infinity Haitians 657 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,159 in our neighborhoods, so he was the right and good choice. 658 00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,360 I'm very concerned with all those things. I'm not a 659 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,800 pacifist by any stretch of the imagination. I'm under no 660 00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:54,400 illusion that Putin is somehow a good guy as concerns America. 661 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,559 I'm under no illusion that he's concerned with anything beyond 662 00:41:58,599 --> 00:42:04,679 his national astra rests concerning America. But I also think 663 00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,480 we shouldn't, you know, try to piss off the bear. 664 00:42:07,679 --> 00:42:09,800 We shouldn't get into a fight. We don't need to have. 665 00:42:10,679 --> 00:42:12,599 One of my good rules for life that I tell 666 00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:14,280 people is don't pick a fight with anybody who is 667 00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,320 meaner and crazier than you. And the Russians are probably 668 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:22,079 meaner and crazier than you. So yeah, I'm very concerned. 669 00:42:22,119 --> 00:42:25,880 I hope I hope Trump is aware of the issue. 670 00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,360 I hope he doesn't create another John Bolton situation in 671 00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,079 which he gets a guy that he was hoping would 672 00:42:31,119 --> 00:42:34,639 be you know, intimidating to everybody, but instead derails his 673 00:42:34,679 --> 00:42:42,000 own administration. So I'm concerned, but I haven't lost hope. 674 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:47,599 Speaker 1: Well, the when it comes to Putin, you get the 675 00:42:47,639 --> 00:42:51,320 idea though, that as long as you don't poke the bear, 676 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:57,679 he's just going to be your typical Russian ruler who 677 00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:03,679 you know, help play intelligence games. They'll be spying, they'll 678 00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,119 be all sorts, there'll be all sorts of things. But 679 00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,719 this isn't a guy who wants I don't think he 680 00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:16,000 wants strife with his or any kind of conflict with 681 00:43:16,039 --> 00:43:20,719 his neighbors, much less us. I think he's just, you know, 682 00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,840 he's he wants to know what we what we know, 683 00:43:24,079 --> 00:43:25,760 just like we want to know what We want to 684 00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:27,920 know what. He wants to know what we're doing, just 685 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,480 like we want to know what he is doing. 686 00:43:31,039 --> 00:43:35,000 Speaker 2: I think Putin is somebody as a security realist. He's 687 00:43:35,079 --> 00:43:39,280 a you know, one of those security bureaucratic professionals, at 688 00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,159 least he was by career in the former Soviet Union, 689 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,960 who is eternally wary of threats internally and externally against 690 00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:51,239 the state and is always concerned about that. But that 691 00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:57,960 same awareness and concern provides the ability to see that 692 00:43:58,039 --> 00:44:01,079 some people can be, if not out at least neutral 693 00:44:01,159 --> 00:44:05,480 parties that you can deal with in a non adversarial circumstance. 694 00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:11,960 So America has this weird idea, at least the government. 695 00:44:12,039 --> 00:44:14,400 Zeitgeis says this weird idea that the world is divided 696 00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,840 into people who are completely in your camp and people 697 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:22,639 who are enemies. And again, I know one interpretation of 698 00:44:22,679 --> 00:44:26,239 the friend enemy distinction of Schmidt, and again, unfortunately my 699 00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:30,239 German is horrible, so I don't remember the exact quote 700 00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,840 verbatim is that friend and enemy distinction should probably be 701 00:44:34,039 --> 00:44:37,880 understood more as like friend outsider or obviously enemies are outsiders, 702 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,039 but there are also neutral parties that you you're wary 703 00:44:41,119 --> 00:44:42,920 toward them, but you engage with them and you're not 704 00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:47,039 necessarily wishing to destroy them because you know you have 705 00:44:47,079 --> 00:44:50,480 some sort of data. You're trying to deal with them 706 00:44:50,519 --> 00:44:55,880 in a non combative manner. So I think Putin is 707 00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,880 somebody who understands that he or somebody who wants a 708 00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,599 in which the other powers, especially in the United States, 709 00:45:03,599 --> 00:45:08,000 he wishes he had a non directly adversarial relationship with 710 00:45:08,159 --> 00:45:11,599 a country that you know, wasn't actively trying to destroy 711 00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:18,280 him and destroy his countries, you know, administration. So what 712 00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,639 does that mean? I think I think he's somebody that 713 00:45:22,039 --> 00:45:24,480 I wish we had dealt with. And again I'm not 714 00:45:24,559 --> 00:45:26,440 under any illusion of him being a good guy. But 715 00:45:27,559 --> 00:45:30,639 by treating him as an enemy, we've created, you know, 716 00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,280 a self fulfilling process prophecy, which has destroyed a large 717 00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,119 part of the population of Ukraine. 718 00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:43,280 Speaker 1: I guess another question I would ask, is Trump picked 719 00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,840 this Pete Hegseth guy for you know, for sec def 720 00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:52,519 And obviously we would have no idea we have I mean, 721 00:45:52,559 --> 00:45:56,119 I don't have any idea what he would do. Probably 722 00:45:56,199 --> 00:45:57,360 just be an order taker. 723 00:45:58,079 --> 00:46:00,199 Speaker 2: I don't know. That's the weird thing is a lot 724 00:46:00,199 --> 00:46:02,920 of people pointed out this is a really weird choice. 725 00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:06,400 He's a guy who was was a major lieutenant colonel. 726 00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,239 He's still in the Army reserves, but he's not in 727 00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,760 a true unit, which essentially means he's in a kind 728 00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:12,519 of unit where he's not going to drill regularly. He's 729 00:46:12,559 --> 00:46:14,400 not going to do his one week in a month. 730 00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,519 He's not going to get his retirement points, but at any 731 00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,920 point he could be a signed to a unit and 732 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:23,440 deployed after some kind of a train up, which is 733 00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,679 a really weird kind of status to have at that 734 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,239 point in his military career. He's somebody who has obviously 735 00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,840 been a TRUP leader and has a lot of interesting 736 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:36,000 development in his military career, but like nothing that would 737 00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,960 suggest making him the Secretary of Defense. And I'm not 738 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,480 opposed to him per se, but it's also sort of 739 00:46:43,599 --> 00:46:46,480 like why would you pick him? Not saying he's a 740 00:46:46,639 --> 00:46:48,960 bad choice so much as like why is he a choice? 741 00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,719 You know, it's it's such a weird person to choose, 742 00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,639 and I know the view and whatnot. Made the point 743 00:46:55,639 --> 00:46:58,280 that hey, he's just the backup week in Fox and 744 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,679 Friend's house. It's like, as a military professional, but he's 745 00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,440 he's not quite the military professional that you would choose 746 00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:09,320 to be in charge of your entire security establishment. I've 747 00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,360 written a book and I've done a lot of scholarship, 748 00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,239 but absolutely nobody in this world is gonna put me 749 00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,760 in charge of the military establishment. That's sort of like, 750 00:47:18,159 --> 00:47:20,000 he's a great guy, but why would you pick him? 751 00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,719 Speaker 1: Well, news has come out in the last twenty four 752 00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,000 hours that there is a consideration that Trump because of 753 00:47:28,639 --> 00:47:33,360 things with Hegeset's personal life, but maybe just more because 754 00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:35,840 of all the scuttle bet about him, that he could 755 00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:42,239 possibly be replaced with Ronda Sansus. Yeah, well I like that. 756 00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:44,679 Speaker 2: I like the Santis. But I also think the worst 757 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:46,920 thing that could happen is taking the Santas out of Florida, 758 00:47:47,559 --> 00:47:51,039 because he's the one who's kept that as a solid, 759 00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:57,480 you know, anchor state for the Republican Party, and he's 760 00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,719 done a lot, you know, on behalf of side. Yeah, 761 00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:04,440 he's Prosionist, and he's done some issues with you know, 762 00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,000 anti Semitis Semitic speech legislation, which I really don't like, 763 00:48:08,119 --> 00:48:10,480 but he's done a lot of things for our side 764 00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,920 that I really appreciate. And I think you would be 765 00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:16,320 a better executive than Trump. Obviously, he wasn't going to 766 00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:20,079 get elected, and I think the worst thing to do 767 00:48:20,159 --> 00:48:22,519 would be take him out of Florida where he's actually 768 00:48:22,599 --> 00:48:25,159 doing real good work, where he's going to be replaced 769 00:48:25,159 --> 00:48:29,000 by who. So as far as the rumors, I mean, 770 00:48:29,079 --> 00:48:31,440 rumors are rumors. I mean me and you can start 771 00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,800 a rumor whether or not it's true or not has 772 00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:35,840 no bearing upon whether or not we can make people 773 00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:39,280 repeat what we're saying. So what do I think about 774 00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,000 those rumors at this point? I don't know. It's just 775 00:48:43,039 --> 00:48:43,519 a rumor. 776 00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it was just he has two years 777 00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,519 left on his term there and then he's termed out, 778 00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:53,840 so he hasd to sit for four years. He could 779 00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,039 always get re elected, but he has to sit for 780 00:48:56,039 --> 00:48:59,400 four years. So I thought that was interesting. It's just 781 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:08,719 that he not knowing what heg Seth is is maybe 782 00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:14,360 more more appealing than knowing what the census is. 783 00:49:14,679 --> 00:49:18,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, it's just so weird. It's not 784 00:49:18,039 --> 00:49:21,519 like I see anything that would really disqualify him. Soon says, 785 00:49:21,559 --> 00:49:23,559 I don't see anything to qualify him. 786 00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,280 Speaker 1: You're talking about hag Seth, right. 787 00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I said, I'm not saying he's bad. I'm 788 00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:34,760 just saying what made you pick him? Right there? You know, 789 00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,679 being a good guy with the military record is you 790 00:49:37,679 --> 00:49:40,039 know a lot of people fall into that category. So 791 00:49:40,159 --> 00:49:40,840 I picked this guy. 792 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, it just seemed really I remember I was sitting 793 00:49:45,199 --> 00:49:48,360 on the couch when that came across that he picked him, 794 00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:50,440 and I was I had no idea who he was 795 00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,199 because I don't watch Fox. I mean, I don't watch 796 00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:58,480 any of the legacy media outlets. And then I started 797 00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,599 reading on him and I was just like, this just 798 00:50:00,639 --> 00:50:05,719 seems like, you know, some of these picks are obviously 799 00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:09,039 he's picking some people who are eminently qualified, but they're 800 00:50:09,199 --> 00:50:12,639 real trolls, and that just seemed like a real troll pick. 801 00:50:13,519 --> 00:50:16,480 Speaker 2: I think it's fair description. Yeah, it's it's like, why 802 00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,119 would you pick them? And it's like, if you're going 803 00:50:18,199 --> 00:50:21,039 to do that the thumb the eye in the media 804 00:50:21,119 --> 00:50:24,239 or the other side, it's like, okay, but I feel 805 00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,679 like you could get somebody who's eminently qualified to thumb 806 00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,960 their eye in there. So I don't know. 807 00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I'm sick and tired of talking about the 808 00:50:33,159 --> 00:50:35,400 about the picks. I just wanted to get some, guess, 809 00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:38,880 some information out there on Syria. Yeah, and you know, 810 00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,079 it's one of those things that we just sit here 811 00:50:42,119 --> 00:50:44,760 and talk for three or four hours about Syria, but really, 812 00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:45,119 what do. 813 00:50:45,119 --> 00:50:47,519 Speaker 2: We know exactly? And that's part of why I said, 814 00:50:47,599 --> 00:50:50,800 let's go and do a read through of the Soufan report, 815 00:50:51,159 --> 00:50:53,119 because I can go and do a summary of all 816 00:50:53,119 --> 00:50:57,159 the groups, but it's you know, a lot more is 817 00:50:57,199 --> 00:50:59,960 what's being said between the lines and what we can 818 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:04,320 question from the reports, and the big things I would 819 00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:07,639 take away is, like Thomas said, is right now strategically 820 00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:11,519 it only makes sense as a strike against both Hesba 821 00:51:11,599 --> 00:51:15,719 Lah and Russia and so much of the things that 822 00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:19,960 are being asserted by the groups that are operating in Syria. 823 00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,119 You know, these are the sort of like, how would 824 00:51:24,159 --> 00:51:26,599 you know that sort of statements you know that you're 825 00:51:26,639 --> 00:51:29,320 not going to see in the early stage of of 826 00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:29,920 an operation. 827 00:51:31,079 --> 00:51:33,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well let's end it right there. Man, 828 00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:37,280 I really appreciate it, you know, thanks for coming on 829 00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:42,480 and sharing what you know and what your opinions are 830 00:51:42,519 --> 00:51:46,400 on this, because I think is somebody who's been been 831 00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,719 in that area of the world probably have a little 832 00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:51,960 bit of a better idea than somebody who hasn't. So 833 00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,000 and I'm not putting down people who haven't. I think 834 00:51:55,039 --> 00:51:58,039 Scott Horton is probably, you know, one of the one 835 00:51:58,039 --> 00:51:59,480 of the best guys in the world on all this 836 00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,559 stuff or anything. But you know, there, you know I 837 00:52:02,559 --> 00:52:06,679 have I have easy access to you, and Scott sometimes 838 00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:08,039 doesn't return my text anymore. 839 00:52:08,039 --> 00:52:10,000 Speaker 2: So Yeah, I was going to say the fact that 840 00:52:10,039 --> 00:52:13,039 anti war radio, Scott hasn't put anything out there yet, 841 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:18,440 usually means that you know, a situation isn't clear and 842 00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:22,840 that the sources can't confirm anything at that point, which 843 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,599 is part of why I was willing to come on 844 00:52:24,679 --> 00:52:25,400 here to talk about this. 845 00:52:26,559 --> 00:52:29,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe that's exactly why Scott didn't return my 846 00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:31,320 last text, because I'm like, Hey, what the hell's going 847 00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:33,039 on with Syria and he's just going to come back 848 00:52:33,079 --> 00:52:35,039 and be like, I don't know, man, I don't know. 849 00:52:35,079 --> 00:52:35,599 We got to wait. 850 00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:38,519 Speaker 2: A lot of our guys I know who do security 851 00:52:38,559 --> 00:52:42,679 related stuff comment so little on Ukraine, and the point 852 00:52:42,679 --> 00:52:45,559 they made in all those cases is the part that's 853 00:52:45,599 --> 00:52:49,440 publicly available, even if it's on the media or through 854 00:52:49,639 --> 00:52:51,960 you know, other sources, is generally so bad that they 855 00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:55,239 wouldn't comment on Ukraine because it wasn't really clear what 856 00:52:55,360 --> 00:52:58,400 was happening. And that's very often why you will see 857 00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,840 guys who talk about security stuff, they won't talk about 858 00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:01,719 an operations like this. 859 00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,199 Speaker 1: All right, well, I appreciate it always until the next time. 860 00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:06,559 Thank you.