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Speaker 1: The pekan Yonashow dot com. Everything's there. Want to welcome
everyone back to the Peking Yona show. Who the hell
is this guy?
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me?
Speaker 1: Goodness good, good to see you. I just saw you.
I saw you a month ago. We were face to
face a month ago. But yeah, so face fag Huh.
Speaker 3: It's true. It's I'm ashamed to admit it. It's a
it's a bad place to be in life. But yet
here's where I find myself.
Speaker 1: Right, all right, let's jump into this. We're doing this
on Tuesday the seventeenth, all sorts. Trump is either doing
forty chests again or he's going to war. He just
said there we can we control the skies over Iran,
total surrender. What is this? So here's here's my question. More,
here's what I want to talk about. More importantly, how
do we interpret this? I mean, there's a certain group
on the let's call it the right. We don't need
to put any qualifiers on it. Who Trump is has
sacrificed his children to members of a tribe that that
mostly live in is you know, not well mostly live here,
but they also live in Israel. So he's completely a
Zionist and completely beholdens a Zionist, and they own him
and any kind of any kind of you know, like
friction you would see with Yahoo. It's all kfe. You know,
this is all wwe Then there are those people like
myself who are like, I don't know that Trump is
really a Zionist or if he could actually define the term.
And he's from New York and he's in the real
estate industry and it's pretty much dominated by a certain tribe,
so it wouldn't be weird that, like, that's a lot
of the people he was around his whole life, so
that's who his kids would meet and stuff like that
and get in with. And the fact that he seems
to like these people and seems to like Israel. But
I don't know that he's a Zionist. I think he's
a boomer who is like, Iran cannot ever have a
nuclear weapon because I've been told that they took an
embassy hostage in nineteen seventy nine for no reason whatsoever.
So and then you know, you have people who just
don't like this tribe and they can't or they don't
like this tribe, they don't like politics, they can't take
a side. It's like, what would Kamala be better than Trump?
I can't, No, they're both bad. I can't take aside.
I'll never take a side.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no no.
Speaker 1: So what is this? Where are where are we at?
How is what do you see as like? Of those
three that I just met, well, I mean really two
that I mentioned, and I'm really talking about how people
really how people react to Trump?
Speaker 2: How do you see it? And now I'll shut up?
Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, So there's over ways to look at it. Right,
which is the first off of the binary choice of
twenty twenty four. Right, you and I were handed effectively
two options and told to make a choice. So from
that you have kind of a split in the decision tree,
which is, are you going to engage with politics? Yes
or no? I'm not a quietist, right, I'm not one
of these people who say, you know, any politician is
irreparably compromised, so I won't vote. I know people like that.
I don't agree with it, but it's a respectable enough position.
So let's say we've taken that for we've decided we
are going to be involved in politics. Well, fundamentally, you
were given a very small fraction of power, right, vanishingly small. Right,
Even if we assume that the Civics class version of
American history is exactly or American politics. Rather, it's exactly
correct and told to make a binary choice, so to me, right,
the reason I was comfortable voting for Trump is very simple.
It's basically who hates me? And you know, look Trump
has many many for but at the same time, he
doesn't seem to hate normal Americans. Okay, fair enough. That
makes it an easy choice. And from that point, right,
if we decide that, you know, Kamala would have been
worse on average for people like ours, Well, what did
we get out of it? Well, to be honest, we
got more than I thought we would. Right. Had I
thought there was no chance that any of the kind
of doze stuff would happen, I had thought there was
no chance any of the immigration reform would happen. And
look like those aren't capital w wins. You know, doze
does not equate to us getting exactly what we want,
but it is punishing our enemies. So you know what,
I'll take it, right, It's a move that relatively speaking,
increases our power, right, sort of a body blow, not
a knockout, but something that kind of SAPs the tank.
So fair enough, right, And that's why broadly speaking, I
have been positive on Trump. I'm not a maga guy.
I don't really particularly care about all of the kind
of internacne mega politics or you know, getting really emotionally
invested in it. But to me, I feel like we
got more than we could have expected. You know, you
buy a car, you open the glove box and there's
five hundred bucks in an envelope. Hey, look, you know
better than I thought. Right. So then it comes to
foreign policy. Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine.
That hasn't happened. There's been good faith efforts to make
it happen, but it seems to be honestly, Russia doesn't
want to end it, and to be honest, I can't
blame them. They're in a very good position. So as
with foreign policy, Trump has always been a mixed back, right,
We've seen cases like with Syria where he was lied
to right where they said we're taking troops out and
they didn't do that. Also, there have been just regular
old bad decisions, stupid mistakes. Right this strike on the
Iranian general, you know, using the kind of like Ninja
missile or whatever that kind of you know, launched the
sharkan from space at him. That was a that was
an error, right, we can we can say that now
the problem is right, starting a war with Iran is
a much larger scale error. Right, assuming that the you know,
the worst comes to worse, and that happens, I sincerely
hope it doesn't. Honestly, that would wipe away a lot
of the let's be honest, almost all of you know
his his wins in my book. Now, the question of
how likely this is, well, I've seen the same kind
of forty just claims you have many of them from
you know, people I like and consider friends. I don't
know how much of that I buy, to be perfectly honest. Like, Look,
there are tankers with fighters in tow crossing the Atlantic, right, Okay,
maybe this is some you know, big threatening maneuver. You know,
maybe this is a desire to get to the negotiating table,
and if so, fair enough, I'll eat crow. But judging
by the data we currently have, it looks like at
the very least, there will be strikes on Iran. Now, admittedly,
strikes do not equal war. War does not equal like
a World War two style general mobilization. But I mean,
look like we have to look at the data as
it is. Several things here right. Trump has been very
chilly towards net and Yahoo.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: I he has not met with him yet. I don't
think Vance has either. Hegseeth canceled his decision to go
talk with him, So there's something there, right. And also
it's interesting Vance put out a statement today which you
can read one of two ways. It's a very long
post to Twitter, and about half of it is saying,
you know, Iran, you know, must not be allowed to
have a nuclear weapon, and then the back half is saying,
but we don't want a foreign war. The decision is
ultimately in Trump's hands. We've seen pushback from you know,
Bannon Tucker, people inside the cabinet against this, and at
the same time, you know, you have Mike Huckabee posting
the most insane things possible about how this is the
reason the country of America was founded, which, regardless your
opinions on let's just say any country in the world
that was not the reason America was formed, Right, America
was formed to be a place for Americans to live,
not to serve as the world policeman or the guaranteur
of some other state. So to me, if I had
to guess what's going on, it seems as if they
are pulling out all their stops to get America involved,
and it looks like they have successfully made that play. Now,
what we don't know is what is the reaction inside
the Trump cabinet. How are they reacting to this? And
it seems like from the signals we're getting, there is
a camp that is very much opposed to this move.
One of the things that I've been talking about quite
a bit, both on my own show and also you know,
in conversations with Thomas and others, is the fact that
look like the Israel lobby is a very very powerful,
well connected lobby, but they are not the only interest group.
There are others. And one of the interesting things about
twenty twenty four as we saw the introduction, or at
least the formalization of, in my mind, two distinct groups. Right,
you have obviously the tech right, who has been i
mean to use a gen Z term, sort of crashing
out right, Musk went on a giant meltdown, you know,
accused Trump of all sorts of outlandish things. So, look,
they may be in the descendant, right, they may be
in a bad spot, but they still have power, they
still have interests, right, this kind of bizarre combination birthday
and military parade. Sure it may have been embarrassing, or
you know, alternately, any view, it may have been the
coolest thing ever. But it's very interesting to see which
tech companies were involved in that. Right, there's a lot
of traditional MIC interests, but also palanteer right, other things
associated with teal, which indicates that those guys have at
least some pull in this. Similarly, there were a number
of tech ce or tech executives and MIC executives who
got made i believe Lieutenant Colonels honorary right in the reserves.
But still that is a further enmeshing of those interests
and the federal government. But the other one, right is
this kind of we could consider the America Firsters, if
that term hadn't been kind of bastardized. But you know,
the palaeocon interests, right, people like Tucker Bannon their network
who are very much opposed to this, And it's a
it's a question to ask, well, okay, sure, if they're
not in power, what do their opinions matter? And one
of the questions that has been kind of on the
forefront of my mind for really the last six months
has been who wins right? When it comes to a
conflict between these interest groups, who wins? And unfortunately, at
least according to the data as I see it right now,
it seems as if the Israel lobby is winning, right,
they are getting what they want. Now there's a secondary
question of, well, what happens if they get what they want? Right?
I think that the idea that this will result in
some sort of you know, regime change or glorious revolution
is unlikely. Iranian officials have been assassinated before I saw a.
I believe their joint chief of staff. He was taken
out in air strikes, at least according to shall we
say Israeli aligned media, right, And by that, I mean
the idea said it, you know, so we can say
that's what they want you to think. We don't know
if that's true or not. But nonetheless, so let's say
they get what they want, you know, America strikes nuclear sites. Well,
what happens then? Because I think that that fantasy, right,
that we will you know, turn over the Mullus regime,
I think it's unlikely.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: It's bears repeating the Mulas are not popular in Iran.
In the old joke is Islam Islam wasn't, or Persia
wasn't islamicized, Islam was Persianized. Right. The joke is they've
kind of always been their own culture, and the Mullas
were very much an imposition on that culture. Right, They've
never been particularly popular, especially considering how orly their economy
is doing just within the country. Now, that said, the
deal that they run, right, their political formula is basically this,
we are protecting you from the Great Satan the West.
And that political formula works a lot better when you
have you know, US fighters bombing your cities. Right. I'm
sure you saw the same footage I did of civilians
evacuating Tehran. Well, if your leaders are saying we're protecting
you from them, the messaging you're hearing from the West
is unconditional surrender. Well, that reinforces that political formula. One
of the other things that I think bears talking about
is to what degree has this kind of salvo of
missiles been effective one side and another Iranian F FOURT
teams have been destroyed. It seems as if there were
kind of claims running around that they were fakes. I
don't think that's the case. There have obviously been fake
images of Iranian fighters other important things being destroy But
it seems as if those were kind of mothballed fighters, right,
they've been stored on an air air they'd been stored
on the tarmac for two years with no weather stripping
or whether you know, protection, They were mothballed, right, They
got hit, So that's something obviously, if Iranian officials are
being killed, they are hitting hardened targets. One of the
interesting things, which this is Iranian government propaganda, so take
it with a grain of salt. That applies in both directions.
They say they arrested a number of IDF agents with
a semi truck full of drones allah what we saw
in Ukraine. Interesting connection there, But it seems as if
this is still very much an equal fight, right, they're
giving as good as they've got. Iran is an immensely
defendable location by land, right, They're difficult to get to.
So the idea of sending in troops, so to speak,
I think is completely and totally unrealistic. But you know,
Israel has a lot of ordinance, We have a lot
of ordinance, and they can get hammered hard, so I
think it's pretty unlikely that this results in the mall
is toppling, but it could result in definitely a humanitarian
crisis and also a domestic one. Right. The magabase is
split on this, particularly along age age lines. You know,
we've we've all talked about the way in which you know,
that country is overwhelmingly supported by older people, not supported
by younger people. So you have the same connections I
do to the kind of krusty g Watt vets. They're
very upset about this. Uh, everyone my age is also
particularly upset about this, not necessarily for right wing reasons,
but you know, the meme of I won't die for
Israel that you know, got kind of popular in the
run up to this. Uh, the counter signaling was completely
and totally inept. First it was no one is asking
you to and then it was, oh, this is some
kind of third world this plot to attack Western civilization.
So that presents a very real problem. Now, look, Trump
is very very good at getting people to sign up
for the military, right We've seen the recruitment numbers before
and after, so that certainly poses a problem. But nonetheless,
a large portion of the mega base, particularly the younger cohort,
which effectively won him the twenty twenty four election. Are
very unhappy with this decision. Now do I think that
matters to a president who is never going to run again.
Probably not. But there is some complicated calculus to this past.
Just you know, big interest group gets exactly what they
want all the time.
Speaker 1: One of the things he said there was that the
US has a lot of bombs. Israel has a lot
of bombs. Iran has a lot of bombs too.
Speaker 2: I mean they.
Speaker 1: I think they claim the claim is they have three thousand.
I think they have more of these missiles that they're sending.
They were sent. They've been sending it Tel Aviv and
sending at Israel last count. I got got this off
a grock, so I mean take it away a grain
of salt. They've used four hundred and fifty of them,
so there is still a lot there left a lot
of this where you really have to take. I think
Trump just announced that all of their air defenses are out.
I don't believe that for one second. I mean, anyone
who has studied four the S three hundred and the
S four hundred system of the Russian system and also
understands the terrain and exactly how it Iran is set
up and how their defenses are set up, is going
some of those you're only going to be able to
take out on the ground. You're just not going to
be able to hit them from the air. So I
don't believe that for one second. It all comes back to,
let let's take it here. Trump is somebody who I
think we believe and you can contradict me on this,
really cares about his legacy. What do you think is
more important to him? Is his legacy? Is the legacy
of him making sure that Iran has no nuclear program
that can be weaponized more important? Or the fact that
he said, we just get into these insane wars and
there's no reason we should have anything to do with them.
Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, I think one of the problems from
Trump watchers generally, and this applies to both the right
and the left, is they sort of are looking for
an ideology of trump Ism, right, which just isn't there.
He's not an ideological actor. And I think that one
of his major character flaws is he seems to be
effectively the sort of combined average of the last three
people he spoke to, right, And so we see these
kind of like wildly vacillating statements from him. And look,
some of that is just he's playing the crowd, right.
We recently saw this with immigration, where he'll kind of
put up these trial balloons, right, he'll say something, test
the waters and then make a decision. So we saw
that over statements about basically illegals working in certain industries.
That he put out this statement saying, oh, you know,
we need to carve out an exception for farmers and
meat packers, and it produced an absolute chimp out right.
People were very very angry about it, and so what happened, Well,
he didn't say anything else about it, but a day later,
a large meat packing concerned in Missouri gets rated with
a huge ice rate and it cleaned out. So we
can assume, right, he looked at that and said, all right,
not a good idea. Now, admittedly, there's a world of
difference between saying something on true's social floating and idea
and to be honest, mobilizing the large amount of our aircraft. Right,
those are different orders of magnitude. What's a month stronger
signal than the other. And I would certainly hope that
he realizes that his foreign policy is a big part
of the reason why he is beloved, right, why people
have a personal loyalty to him instead of just a
loyal to the Republican Party as an institution. I would
hope that now I will say he's made bad decisions before.
I think Trump two point zero has on average made
much better decisions than he did his first time around.
But this is a very serious error if he goes
ahead with it, both for the sake of his legacy,
and I think that needs to be stated, this would
massively tarnish the legacy of the man, would massively tarnish
the legacy of MAGA writ large as something in opposition
to the so called swamp or to rhinos or whatever.
Because again, when it came down to a moment of crisis,
if you default back to that, really how different are you?
And I say that offering a certain amount of gratitude
for the other things we've gotten, like immigration, like the
other stuff, But really this is the thing that matters, right,
this kind of like Empire of America. And one of
the things that John Derbyshire before his retirement, was continually
banging on about was why haven't we left NATO, right,
Why haven't we formally begun instead of just piecemeal the
destruction or the winding down of the empire. And that's
a very major concern because one of the things I
think was very interesting in Trump one point zero is
to notice the exception to the blanket negative media coverage.
I think a number came out, you know, shortly after
he was unsuccessful in his second run, was the media coverage? Right?
It was roughly ninety six percent of media coverage Trump
is negative. So when was the exception to that? Well,
his presidential moments were foreign policy related, right, it was
the moment that he assassinated in Iranian general and look sidebar.
One of the things that I think does disservice to
talking about American foreign policy is the anti war movement itself. Right,
A lot of these people are ideologically opposed to war
as a concept. War is obviously a terrible thing, right
described in scripture as a plague, but as a part
of human organization, we do it from time to time.
It comes like the season. The question is is this
a good war or a bad war? And I'm not
looking necessarily to get into just war theory, That's not
my point, but to say, like, if we believe that
the purpose of a country is to provide a home
and a place for its people, right, fairly basic, Well,
if a war makes those people's lives better, there's an
argument to be made. Right, Like, you could look at
the Roman conquests and say, well, they're probably not justifiable
from like a tomistic perspective. Right. They basically just said like, hey,
you over there, guess what, we're the Romans. We have
your stuff now. But if you're the average Roman citizen,
you got wealthier, you got richer. It's not nice, it's
not pleasant, but there's an argument to be made there.
Whereas in our current situation, these wars are not being
waged for our benefit. They're impoverishing the American people. It's
our blood, our treasure being squandered the advantage of largely
someone else. And if you look at Trump's rhetoric the
entire time, it has been populist rhetoric. It has been
saying in you, the average American, have been given a
raw deal. Your interests are not being considered. I will
act on your behalf. And going back to what I
said about personal loyalty, that's why Trump had personal loyalty,
which is much stronger than institutional loyalty. Right, people like
Trump more than anyone really likes the Republican Party or
the US Postal Service, any of these kind of faceless,
bureaucratic masses. And again, right, it's incredibly shortsighted to throw
that away, To throw away that personal loyalty for a
client nation, right, maybe who knows, maybe a patrion nation.
We could get into that later, but right, but to
throw it away for someone else, because I think, right,
like the old joke during the last time we almost
went to war with Iran is there's a picture of
a young guy and it just said, no Iranian ever
called me an in cell. Right, Ah, it's a joke.
But at the same time, I think that sentiment, especially
among younger people who handed Trump his victory, especially among
people who actually served in the armed forces, is incredibly negative.
And look, we are not populists, right, We understand that
that does not the popular opinion does not result in policy.
Obviously we've seen that constantly. But at the same time,
if your base of power is ultimately populist, if that
is what propels you to the fore, you have to
take that into account, even just as a way to
get in the door, so you can do what you want.
But again, I think this needs to be counter signaled
and heavily, because we have seen the Trump administration caved
popular pressure, as they did with h one B's, as
they did, you know, with the earlier comments about immigration,
look like as Hucker was able to successfully do, you know,
kind of early in the year, with certain of Trump's appointments.
And so again I think it's important not to look
at this naively like there's a very real possibility we
all get screwed, that's how it goes. But I think
that needs to be made quite clear that that will
break the magic Maga magic right, that will break the
distinction between the swamp and the Maga movement. And again
I was never expecting Donald Trump to take us to
based world right to solve all of our problems. But
he so far has, in the grand scheme of things,
made good on his promise.
Speaker 2: And he will.
Speaker 3: Throw away that, he will throw away his goodwill if
he goes ahead with these the senseless war and.
Speaker 1: Iran you mentioned there, the the whole thing about no
no no Iranian ever called me in cell or you
know that kind of meme. Let's talk about a little
bit of the propaganda that's going on around this. Well,
you know, they screamed death to America there, you know,
and I guess I guess I've made the mistake of
reading history and asking, well, why wouldn't they you know,
I mean, that doesn't that's that I understand by asking
that question it makes me a really bad American. But
then again, you know, I think to myself, well, if
someone came here and overthrew our government basically and installed
their own people, Oh wait a minute, hold on, Okay, no,
I'll maybe we come back to that later, and then
you'll see stuff like well they fund all of the Yeah,
they fund Hesbala, they fund Hamahas, they fund I mean,
why would we Why would we put up with that?
And you know, then you asked the question, well, what
does that have to do with us?
Speaker 2: As?
Speaker 1: I well, they've also funded groups that our soldiers have
fought against it, and I'm like, how did we get
into those wars?
Speaker 2: Why?
Speaker 1: Why are we in those war? It seems that more
and more this propaganda and people who say that are
being propaganda's whether they know it or not, whether whether
they're doing it on purpose or whether they that's just
what they've been taught. So I mean, what do you
do when what does a good American do when they
see the propaganda from overseas and when they see the
propaganda and they're like, yeah, I mean, I'm sorry, I'm
having some sympathies with the foreign power that seems to
be not only you know, has A has a legitimate beef,
but also as a legitimate beef with our client state
or patron. As you said, however we want to put that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So there are several things there. First of all,
I think it bears repeating that. You know, as we've said,
it seems as if with Trump what matters more to
the regime is not the domestic it's foreign policy. Right.
They praised him for that, that's what made him presidential,
And to be honest, the same thing goes for regime
oppression to kind of us in ours. If this turns
into a real war, people are going to have to
be very very careful about the remarks they make. Again,
not out of any cowardice, but just out of prudence.
That's a very good way to get black backed. We've
seen it happen before. Be particularly careful of where you
accept money from, right, We've seen that this is a
regular way to entrap regime enemies. So I'll put it
that way. But I mean to your point about kind
of having sympathy for the devil. It comes down to this,
right when we talk about the post war consensus or
the Nuremberg regime, whatever, whatever you want to call it,
very close to the core of that is the idea
that war is illegal, that enmity is it's some kind
of psychological issue with you. There's no reason to be
enemies to this empire unless there is something inherently wrong
with you. And closely bound up with that is effectively
the idea that there is no reasonable objection to America
and its empire. Right, there is no set of actions
we can take that will create a legitimate response. Either
you love us, or you are a dictator in the
mold of a prominent Austrian fellow, and you must be destroyed.
It's that conception. You see it over and over again.
And so anyone who opposes us in really any way
is automatically deemed to be an outlaw. Right, they're outside
of the rules based international order, and so it's open season.
And one of the core flaws of the American personality.
And you could say, we could talk about where this
came from, but really, in that post war consensus or
the Nuremberg regime is the idea that no one will
ever get sick of us, right, that they will simply
continue to be our friends, they will do whatever we say,
regardless of our actions. And a big problem with that
is you say what you will about the Mulas. They
are sovereign. They get to say what Iran does, whereas
many of our allies, right, look at Germany, France, as
we've seen in Africa, right, they do not get to
be fully sovereign. They don't get to decide, They don't
get a full vote in the way the truly sovereign
nation does. And look, I don't want to live in Iran.
I don't want to live under Iranian control. It seems
like kind of a country to live in. But you
have to understand that the enemy gets a vote too,
and we've seen this in Ukraine. Right. We can say
we want peace, but unless Russia decides to stop, there
is no peace. And so similarly, when we talk about
like having sympathy for these people, I wouldn't even necessarily
say sympathy in the sense of like, I like you,
and I want you to win. But if you have
the barest amount of human empathy, right, if you have
the ability to imagine yourself as an Iranian, you can
imagine exactly how they would feel very morally justified in
doing that. It would feel like they are fighting for
their people, fighting for their land against an enemy. And again,
as we've seen over and over and over again, one
these regime change wars don't work. Okay, even if you
get to the objective, you know, you take you know,
Comania or whoever to the Hague and you hang him
and you get to congratulate yourself with that, it doesn't
work right, It doesn't solve the problem, that doesn't fix
the country. But also right simply this kind of like
like Star Wars episode one, idea that you blow up
the brain center and all the soldiers just collapse is
completely and totally absurd. What we are going to get
from this is if we become entrenched in this, it
will be another forever war. It will not fix Iran.
It will not fix our problems, even if they are
our problems in the region. And so again, if we
look at this, as you know, American nationalists, like, what
does it do for us and our people? The answer
is absolutely nothing. You know, it enriches a certain number
of people in northern Virginia. Okay, fair enough. Is that
worth the cost in treasure, lives everything else? I would
say no. And the idea that the only way you
can oppose this is by being some sort of agent
of Iran, you know, by being some sort of like
Pinko or some sort of like you know, weak limbristed
liberalists is completely and totally absurd. And I think one
of the real dangers, and this has been weaponized before
about the anti war movement being so annoying, right being
so irritating, is it's very good to motivate the right
wing to support something because if you look at the
conservative movement large, they're entirely reactive. They say, the left
is doing this, the liberals are doing this, the progressives
are doing this, so we want the opposite. And to
be honest, they're directionally true. Right. That's generally a pretty
good way to orient yourself. But that reaction is well known.
It's a very good way to get people to support
something that's outside of their best interests. So, for instance,
I was a little bit young for this. But during
the kind of start to the global War on Terror,
one of the means that came back around. I mean
this in kind of a not like a haha, funny
impact text sense, but like the rogue ideas right that
came back around was Vietnam soldiers being spit on. Right.
It's like, okay, why years ago plus or minus? Right, Like,
why is that back in culture? Well, the answer is
it's to make you mad at hippie's, which is not
a particularly hard thing to do. I don't really like
these people, but it's injecting that sort of opposition like, oh,
I support this because you don't and I don't like you,
and I think we're seeing the same thing as regards
the kind of foreign interference thing. There's a really interesting
interaction I saw on social media the other day where
it's this Twitter account. It's it's got an incredibly generic name,
like you know, based in red pill that've got two
hundred thousand followers. Whatever this show, I say, idf connected gentleman.
You know, take some post where he's talking about how
war with Iran would be horrible and responds with his name,
his IP address and where he's from his name is
something Abdullah from Pakistan. So okay, obviously there are foreign
actors on both sides. I think it's important to not
be naive about that. The Iranians do have an intelligence department.
There are other vested entry interests in this. So you know,
to quote build a butcher, right, Americans beware of foreign influence.
But several things there, One interesting how he got that information,
and two the whole point is to create that reaction
that flip right, Oh, you are an outsider, you are
one of those you know, dangerous, dangerous terrorists. So I
want the opposite. I want to fight. And similarly, you know,
the left has made itself incredibly odious both over the
last ten years and in recent memory. Right, the optics
of the riots in la were horrible for the left. Right,
this is the party of foreigners, This is the party
that wants to see you dispossessed in your homeland. And
so if you can get those people to oppose something,
anyone who's even not particularly interested in foreign affairs, rit
large associates that stink with the opposition. And I think
we delude ourselves if we think that these people aren't
smart enough to figure that out. One they've done it before,
and two we're sort of seeing that place book being
run over again.
Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about the fact that if
this is if victory is called, it's going to be
a victory from the air. I've done episodes with my
friend John field House. This is somebody who has admitted
that he has war gamed when he was in the
military what an invasion of Iran would look like, and
it would take two years, the staging of it would take.
A ground war would take two years. So this is
going to be an air war. Considering that we've seen
pretty much the whole world except for the client states
of Israel, condemn them for what they've done to Gaza
from the air, it seems like the only way to
win this is to turn Tehran and the other cities
into Gaza.
Speaker 2: So is that a win?
Speaker 1: Is it a win if the rest of the world,
just if the world hates you, if you become as
much of a pariah state as Israel is right now?
Speaker 3: Well, and that's why I mentioned earlier, right like, even
if they win, will that fix their problems? I don't
think it does. I think that there's a non zero
chance that effectively, what Trump does is, you know, drop
a few you know, b fifty two loads of bombs, say,
you know, we destroyed the Iranian nuclear sites, regardless of
if that's true or not, you know, does a George
Bush style mission accomplished photo op and then basically says like,
all right, we did it. It's your problem now. Which
don't get me wrong, I don't want that to happen.
I think that is a possibility. You know, again, we
don't know. We're kind of dealing with probabilities as regards
the future. It Israel. I don't think this changes that.
So one of the interesting things, and this is something
that our mutual friend Rod Dodson could speak to better
than you know you or I, is the degree to
which Turkey and Iran are in opposition one to another.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: And if Iran goes away, Turkey is in the ascendant.
And Turkey is a much scarier country, like it's a
very real country. You know. They are technically members of
the European Union somehow kind of but point is and
NATO exactly. And if they start to you know, ascend
in reaction to Iran sort of being reduced to rubble,
that empowers them. They don't particularly like Israel for any
number of reasons. And also, I think one of the
other things to talk about is the Israeli aura of invincibility.
I mean, look, it was shattered after October seventh, but
the Iron Dome was always the big thing. We've got
this force field and look like, I'm not going to
pretend to know exactly what what percentage of missiles get through,
but with the drone attack we saw earlier, and also
with these hypersonics, we've seen that they can be touched.
And so in Israel, you have a state that is burning.
I mean, look to the point, if they have alienated
a large portion of the American public, imagine what they
have done elsewhere where. We don't have that kind of
entrenched cultural guilt. They're a pariah state, their aura of
invincibility has been shattered. Their demographic crisis is very real.
And look like, let's be honest, the Lakud Party in
Benjamin NETANYAHUU are in a very bad situation right Their
coalition is fracturing. He is very likely to see the
inside of a prison cell if he can't keep up
this series of random wars. Going on to Grant him
emergency powers, which I want to say I think is
a relevant factor in this as well. I think that
he is, basically, like what levers do, I have to
push to keep some sort of war going on, both
for the legal reason and also for the fact that
you know, as we mentioned, with the political formula of
you know, the Iranians basically being we protect you from
the Great Satan, the political formula of the LIQUD Party
seems to effectively be I can tell America to do stuff,
and I can protect you from X y Z. Those
are very tenuous foundations, and there is an Israeli left right.
I don't pretend that those people are necessarily our allies,
but they would result in a different foreign policy. And
one of the other interesting things, I don't know if
you remember, do you remember when the IDF got hacked
a while back?
Speaker 2: Oh, oh, bit, that's huge, it's huge, Yeah it is.
Speaker 3: And so in a hack talking the story about this, right,
it's actually very difficult to tell what they got into,
right because they they broke in and you're sort of
looking around, and so one, we don't exactly know what
the Iranians know. But one of the interesting things is
a lot of these strikes have been directed towards speculated
but not confirmed Israeli military sites, right, that were big,
big secrets, sort of like their equivalent of like Chyenne Mountain,
which I guess everyone knows we're Chia Mountains, but you
understand what I mean, like very very secret location they've
been hit, which to me that indicates one, Iron dome
coverage is nowhere near as universal as we've been led
to believe. And two, if the Iranians know where that is,
they probably know some other stuff. Right, And so again, right,
it seems as if you know, Israel has accomplished at
least some of their objective in Gaza, right, largely, they
have seemed to have done so. And look, they lost
people doing it, but they won, right at least in
some capacity. They may well win in Iran again, in
whatever capacity we can imagine that being. But that doesn't
fundamentally change the churchectory of Israel, which is they're facing
a a domestic political crisis, they're facing an international security crisis.
And also they're very much facing a demographic crisis, right
that they at very bare level require soldiers. Their population
is shrinking, they're the part of their population is growing,
is exempt from military service. I don't know if you noticed,
but they tried to force through conscription for is it
the Hasidim, what group or the ultra Orthodox? I can't remember.
Speaker 2: Was it Hanks or was it That's what it was.
Speaker 3: Sorry, I was cycling through my uh my terms. I
hadn't hit that one yet. But point is right, these
are all very real issues. Now, I'm not one of
these people that thinks like, oh, the crisis is tomorrow,
you know, is reel, It's going to fall, But I
think it's important to say that these are very real issues.
And while striking Iran may put a pin in any
of those issues, right, it may eat and yahoo in power.
You know, it may kind of tramp down, you know,
domestic descent. But one, how long can he keep it up?
And two what will it accomplish? I mean, I think
that it's very likely this will create a humanitarian disaster.
That seems to be the most normal response. But as
we've seen in Gaza, simply creating a giant humanitarian disaster
does not end the conflict. Right, Gaza still has Israeli
soldiers in it, They're still being killed, They're still in
this kind of they're still getting rocketed from time to time,
and look like, do I think that those rockets are
likely to bring Israel to its knees? No, But this
move ultimately doesn't change the calculus that Israel's in a
very very bad position. And I think that the other
calculus it's important to bring up is that you know,
the left, and they did get smashed for it, but
the left in America is incredibly anti Israel. The right
as it ages, right as it people die off, as
we know, the boomers will reach their fifty percent mortality
rate around twenty which, of course I mean, like we
know how mortality curves go, that only increases every year.
They have alienated them as well. And so again, if
your political formula is I can make America do whatever
I want, and a larger and larger segment of American
society basically wonders, what do we get out of this
if internal to the Republican Party, these new interest groups,
which you know sure are not in complete and total control,
but our real voices with power are also opposing this.
It's like, well, look like, let's extrapolate this trend line
twenty thirty years out and just acknowledge, and I'm look,
I'm sure you can say this, Pete. Look at the
difference between Gwatt and now right. This is much more
opposed than it was, much more opposed by young people
who are going to be the ones eventually to fight.
And look at a certain point, it's like this, this
trend line will not be reversed. I would love for
it to be in a much advanced state now right,
I'd love for this to not even be a conversation.
But I think we need to look at this soberly. Right,
there's a very real possibility we will strike Iran. That's
not good. I don't want that to happen. But ultimately
I don't think that changes the calculus for the direction
of Israel as a country or for the Israel lobby
in America.
Speaker 1: So let me let me throw this out there. So
on Sunday I got reports, like three different reports from people,
not people on the inside, but people who are like
one person removed from the inside. And one told me
war was imminent and they heard that from somebody deep
on the inside. Another one said the war this was
not happening, that that it was. There'll be a lot
of bluster but there won't there won't. You know, we're
not going to get involved. The third one was the
people I know are really scared that there's going to
be a false flag attack in the United States, and
that's what's going to draw everybody, all the people who
are who are against Middle East wars, all the people
who are like, you know, making the jokes about well,
I'm not taking the side of of two. I'm not
taking the side of either group if they can't eat bacon.
You know, it's like making those kind of jokes. Well,
this automatically pulls a false flag that you can blame
on mas On, you know, on international Islam. Is something
that is going to cause all of those people who
you know were like, well, we don't want war with anyone,
we you know, right back into being where our our
Rah Israel supporters and yay, let's go blow let's go
blow the Moslims up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, that's a very real risk. Uh. Again,
as we mentioned, our overlords are very very canny when
it comes to you know, the power of narrative, right
the memetics, and you know, regardless of your opinions on
nine to eleven, I generally tend to fall on the
Ryan Dawson side of that. Right, that was a huge
boon for the regime. They were able to ride that
insane wave of support, that insane wave of patriotism, into
a war that they wanted. Right. You know, the old
joke runs, you know, why does a guy from Saudi Arabia,
you know, fly a plane into two towers and three
months later we're in Iraq, you know, or we're in Afghanistan. Right.
Obviously those are not particularly connected, there's a tenuous thread,
but it's what they wanted to do anyway. I mean,
look at the main Right, we could argue if that
was a boiler explosion or something else, but that conspiracy
has been around for a long time because again, it
was something we didn't have a good reason to do.
We didn't have a narrative to sell, and it became endemic, right,
It became everyone was saying remember the main where everyone
was saying, you know, never again, or everyone was saying,
you know, you can insert your slogan there, right, These
people are very aware of the power of narrative. Now,
I will also say the subculture of descent in America
is radically different to what it was in you know,
the early twentieth century or at the early twenty first century, right,
I'll put it this way. A lot of the guys
kind of one generation older than I am, got their
start either in the Truth or movement or in reaction
to gy Right, they started out at Bush protests. That
is very much around and alive. And so another part
of this is that American culture is fractured. Right. One
of the consequences of immigration, one of the consequences of
you know, the kind of skinner box in your hand
that feeds you exactly what you want to say, is
that there really is no American mass culture anymore, at
least not in the way it used to be. So
the ability to pull off a coordinated narrative push like that,
it's tough to do. I mean, we saw this during COVID, right.
You know, that was a huge push. It had its means,
it had its images, it had its slogans, and okay,
it worked, right, they got into power, they locked everyone
in their house. They were able to do a lot
of what they wanted to do, but they didn't have everyone.
You know, they had a plurality, right, but a slight one.
And again, I don't think we should delude ourselves. I
think if that you know, hypothetical, you know, nuke goes
off in Houston, which you know someone it could be
argued that nuking Houston would be doing us a favor.
But I digress.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 3: I think we realize that there will be a response
to that. People will not necessarily all go along with it.
But just as I said earlier about being very very
careful what you say, if America gets involved in a war,
that's another situation where people are going to have to
be very very careful because there will be a huge
there will be a cultural blank check written. And you know,
as we've said, these people are burning through their cap
it won't be And I realized saying blank check and
then quantifying it is poor grammar. But whatever, you know
that that move every time you press the lever, it
doesn't work quite as well. But they can still do
it right. They're still in charge. And again I think
that they are ultimately fighting a losing battle. But I
think we have to be very very cognizant about what
a you know, post nine to twelve America looks like. Obviously,
I really hope that doesn't happen. You know, if something
obviously just for the loss of human life that would
be disastrous. But also, I mean, I think that we
can look back at the last several years and say,
you know, our tendency is in the ascend where we're
rapidly pumping above our weight. But that could definitely throw
cold water on it. Right, if all of a sudden
it's you and the stinky hippies nobody likes, as we
mentioned earlier, that's a much harder battle to fight. So again,
I really really hope that doesn't happen. It is a
possibility we have to be aware of and like what
they're everything else, Right, if we consider ourselves realists, we
fundamentally look at the situation as it is. That changes
our game plan dramatically. Now, I will also say, if
we take the Ryan Dawson narrative on nine to eleven,
shall we say there was significant complicity within our government
in that right, if you believe him to be correct. Now,
if there are already tensions running high, you know, between
the Lecude Party and in the GOP, you know, we
can argue about to what degree that is the case.
Who knows, Maybe they don't get usg come along with them.
But to be honest, that's probably the darkest timeline, right.
We both end up in a full war, a real
deal mobilization, and then there is another there's a black
swan event, a nine to twelve, you know, a newt
goes off in someplace that's actually kind of nice instead
of Houston, and we're straight back to two thousand and
one again. And who knows, maybe the super Bowl halftime
show will get a little bit better. You might get
Creed again. But that's a pretty dark eventuality. I mean,
it is a possibility, you know, again, keep your eyes
out or keep your eyes up for it. But I mean,
there's no two ways to talk about it. That's a
very very bad result. And I think that would I mean,
really that would kill the MAGA movement as you know,
any sort of you know, identifiable political force. It would
be something else. It would be the Republican Party again,
in which case we're in a much darker world than
we realized.
Speaker 1: I think I should say right now that the person
who is typing the comment that Creed didn't perform at
the super Bowl but it was actually a Thanksgiving halftime
really should really stop spurring out and calm down.
Speaker 3: It might have been. I was like four when that happened,
so you know, minor detail.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's so scary, all right, So okay,
so uh let's let's finish off talking on this. I
got three different reports on what was going on. What
that tells me is, and I think we know this,
there are groups within this administration who are vying for
what they want and one's gonna one's gonna win, one
may get playcated. But there are it's obvious that at
least there their choices are there. There's there's different. I mean,
I tend to believe, you know, and I still catch
I catch crap every day. I have one spurg a day.
Come after me and be like, you know, you said
to vote for Trump, and you were all in on Trump,
and you said if we if we, if we had
any criticisms, you were black, were black pilling and everything.
It's like, no, it's because.
Speaker 2: I'm smarter than you.
Speaker 1: And any criticism you're gonna give me of Trump I've
already thought of. I mean, what do you think I
don't know them all? I know I know ones you don't.
But the the fact that we have at least a
chance of a group that would more align not aligned
completely with US, but align align more with what MAGA wants,
you know, less war, more immigrants out of the country,
things like that is.
Speaker 2: Preferable over what Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: Was going to be, which was just going to be
Joe Biden two point zero and Barack Obama three point zero.
So I mean, I mean, do you do you feel
that way? Like at least I mean no time. I mean,
I'm way older than you. No time in my lifetime
has there been a regime that had like like competing
interest that were like completely opposed to each other. You know,
it's the old Tom Woods thing. You know, the less
is evil and the right is dumb, and you know
usually on the most important things they get together and
do something dumb and evil. And it seems like now
we have a chance to, you know, at least get
our way.
Speaker 2: Sometimes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that one of the other things
that bears repeating is you see the same email as
I do, right, You see the same follow request that
I do. Anyone who is in even a has a
plausible chance of throwing their weight behind the message that
foreign wars do not work and are not America. First,
you need to do that because again, like we've said,
there's a very real possibility that this turns very very
ugly for us, our movement, whatever you want to say,
it just America writ large. That needs to be done. Right,
This is a very serious situation. And again I think
that you're right, and to say that I don't regret
voting for Trump is is true, right, Like I don't
imagine that if you know, heaven forbid it, Kamala Harris
was in the White House, this would be going differently, right,
And I think it's important to temper that and say that,
look like better doesn't mean good and technically better, like,
look like, if we really do go back to two
thousand and one, you know, we could we could kick
out all of the people we don't want here to
get back to show we say, like, you know, similar demographics,
we can kind of turn back the cultural clock to
what was acceptable twenty years ago.
Speaker 1: Pap Buchanan wins the presidency.
Speaker 3: One hundred percent, Like, okay, that is directionally better, but
that's not a win. Right. We saw what happened, right,
We were all alive for the twenty years after two
thousand and one, and it wasn't a great ride, So
don't be lulled into thinking that that is, you know,
a win in any way. I certainly directionally better than
you know, South Africa. Right, But that's sort of damning
by faint praise, right, It's like, this is a very
very serious issue, right, this is something that needs to
be addressed and harshly condemned because at least in some
way we see these people are reactive to public pressure.
And if you have the ability to use private pressure,
do it right. This is the time, right, this is
the time to pull out all the stops and look,
if you and I are wrong, if this is fort
hs you know, if he turns around at the last
minute and drops his payload on you know, another city
in another place that we don't like, you know, we great.
I'm happy to be wrong. I would love to be wrong.
But again, like I've said over and over and over again,
we're fundamentally looking at the data we have and at
least currently it doesn't look great.
Speaker 1: Well, I think the most important thing to realize is
that you know you mentioned talking about, you know, the
better and the good. We're never going to get the perfect,
and we're never going to get it. I mean, this
is politics. This is a a president who is being
elected to rule over four hundred million people. Probably if
you have fifty million illegals, no one can do that.
Sam Francis taught us that, you know, the revolution of
mass and scale, you can It's just impossible. People who
the people who are still like, oh, you know, federalism
is you know, one hundred percent, you're going to get
a president in there and they're going to speak for
everyone and they're gonna No, it's not going to happen.
So basically all you're looking for at this point is
the better you know, the J six people are out
to me like, if that's all that happened, that's God,
I'm fine with that, you know, and the people and
you know, you will get people who say, You've had
people say, well, would be better if they were in there?
Maybe better if Trump would have lost and they would
have stayed in there, because that would have you know,
created like more like policeolitical, political prisoners and martyrs. And
it's like, is there anyone in your life you love,
you know, because it's like I mean, just picture someone
that you care about is in there, and all you
want is them to get out.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: So you know, when I'm looking at this, it's like,
are we having some wins or have we had some wins?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Is it going to be perfect? No? Is it
going to be good?
Speaker 1: I don't know. You know, it's like the jury is
still out. But what we have is we have a
real right that understands that, like at least if immigration
isn't taking it isn't handled, then we don't have a country.
And then you have a left that realized if immigration
is handled, they have no power, like one of their
main power. So you have two groups that are fighting
for their lives and fighting for their existence and fighting
for power, and only one of them, historically and especially
recently knows how to use power and wield it and
has the will to do it. And that's not the
quote unquote right. So you you have to temper your
No one came into this, I mean, if anyone can
find where I said, Oh, everything's going to be perfect.
I was like, this is like breathing room for four
years if Trump gets gets in office. That's exactly what
I said. And if you're pissed off that I said
you were black pilling, I really don't care, you know.
I mean things are better now, Kamala Harris, is I
mean orin used to talk about this all the time.
We talked about three years ago, we were talking about
this that the trajectory of Joe Biden was like podcast
masters would be taken out in jailed. I mean, if
not life ended, that's the end when the left gets
back in power, Because they probably are going to get
back in power some day, that's something to worry about.
Not podcasters at that point, it'll be anyone who has
opinions as such as we do.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's and actually you can maybe make the argument
that much like nuke and Houston, throwing podcasters in jail
might be a net benefit for society. But either way, right,
you're largely right that this is a reprieve. And to me, right,
I think that in a competition with conservatives, we win
and are winning right now. Admittedly it's a slow trend, right,
It's not an immediate thing. It's not happening tomorrow. But
look like that's the reason I think that this is
a thing to kind of throw my weight behind. Right Obviously,
Look I'm here, you know I wouldn't be doing it
if I didn't think there was something to it. But
to your point about the left, that's a very real possibility.
I think that the cultural force behind you know, social
progressivism or wokeness or whatever you want to call it.
I do think that's waning, right. I don't think it's
cool or fun or sexy anymore. It's seen as low class.
But the problem is, you have a lot of people
who have put a lot behind that right. They have
made that their identity. In some cases, they have made
should we say, radical surgical changes to themselves in support
of that ideology. They're bought in, and I think that
we've got one real hard push from that left. I do,
and obviously, you know, I ultimately think that that system
is failing, right. I don't think it's I think it's
zenith was twenty twenty. But I think we're you know,
much like I said, there's a have to prepare for
the possibility that we get involved in this war, you know,
that we get dragged back into kind of a wartime,
you know, cultural dialectic similarly, and the left comes back.
I think it's very smart to prepare for things to
get nasty, because we saw them signal, right, especially towards
the end. It's what they wanted. And to your point
about the J sixers, right, like, when we look at power,
you know, what is the definition of a win? And
you know, obviously the simplest definition is anything that increases
your power or decreases your enemies. But on even more
basic level, it's punishing friends or punishing enemies and rewarding friends.
And the J sixers they got a huge reward, right
they got out of prison. And that again, right, that
understanding of very basic politics is why Trump was catapulted
to success because he understood that, right, He wasn't one
of these kind of institutional loyalists who was you know,
too worried about respectability, you know, didn't want to do
nasty things or punish people because you know, we care
about the rule of law, we care about the constitution.
He's a brawler in a way, and that's why people
like him. And again, it would be a crying shame
to see him throw that away for something like this,
you know, for a stupid foreign war that won't accomplish anything,
that won't it certainly won't help America, won't help Israel.
And to your point again about the reaction to this,
Trump's ability to punish Enemies has made a lot of
people very very upset, and when he's out, either due
to simply, you know, stepping back from politics or look,
he's an old man, right that heaven't forbid it. His
mortality is past approaching. I think we have to also
prepare for the fact that there may be a CounterPunch
that we're not going to like.
Speaker 1: All right, Jay Burden, let's let's cut it there. How
can people support your show? Yeah, it looks like yeah,
you know, we've been talking and it looks like you
you're you're good at this, and I think a lot
of us agree that you should be doing this full time?
Speaker 2: So how can we make that happen?
Speaker 3: I appreciate the compliments, Pete. So, as you can imagine,
my main output is the creatively named Jay Burden Show.
You can find that on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, anywhere you
want to listen to podcasts. If you want to support me,
I would really appreciate this, right, as Pete intonated, this
is what I do now you know, it's no longer
a hobby, and so if you find me on a
podcast platform, there will be links where you can donate directly,
very very soon. The business model for The Jay Burton
Show will be changing. As listeners of the Pete Conona Show,
it will seem very very familiar to you. Where there
will be a free in a premium string right of content,
same content, right, you won't miss anything. But if you
want to check out the Jay Burton Show early in
ad free, well you can do so on Subscribe, Star, Substack, Patreon,
pretty much anywhere else. And again, Pete, I really appreciate
the opportunity to kind of launch from your platform. Obviously
you're a huge influence on me, both politically and also
uh from a podcasting perspective, and I appreciate the opportunity.
Speaker 1: Man, yeah, I think you described yourself as Pete Q
younger with hair.
Speaker 3: It's pretty much that. Yeah, that's that's uh, that's my
business model.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, when I started doing this, it was
my model was that Tom was Tom Woods.
Speaker 3: Created worse and worse copies at the top. It's like
photocopying of photo coffy and.
Speaker 2: Of it at SELA. I gotta sell on that.
Speaker 3: It's actually funny. I don't talk about it much, but
there was a period of my life where I listened
to a lot of Tom Woods, uh and it's pretty
old now. He has a great interview with RFK from
kind of back in the height of COVID that I
don't remember the number, it's probably a thousand episodes ago.
But yeah, Tom Woods is a really talented guy, and
that in particular was a very impactful episode. So if
you listeners are looking for recommendations, that's a good one
to dig up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, there's a there's a lot of good old
ones with him. It's funny when you go back through
his catalog and you're like, holy crap, how did he
How was his second interview ever? Ian Anderson, the lead
singer from Jeth Road's Hull just odd. All right man,
I'm gonna get out here. Thank you so much.
Speaker 3: Sure thing, man,