Speaker 1: Do not adjust your podcast playing device. This is the
Speaker 1: Texas Trips Texas Tribune trip Cast, and I am Matthew Watkins.
Speaker 1: And you just heard some new theme music for the
Speaker 1: trip Cast, A nice new jam by our producers, Robin Chris.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Eleanor?
Speaker 2: I love it? New year, new music, new US.
Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: That voice you heard, of course, is Eleanor Klibanoff, law
Speaker 1: and politics reporter for the Tribune.
Speaker 2: Still same me, Still same, Eleanor.
Speaker 1: Any any New Year's resolutions?
Speaker 3: Do more trip Cast, have more fun with the Tripcast.
Speaker 3: We're gonna get weird on the trip Cast this year.
Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, that's right. Stick around the new music,
Speaker 1: new US. Yeah. This week we are joined by two
Speaker 1: politics reporters, Kayla Glow. Hello, Kayla. Hi, Matthew, how is
Speaker 1: your holiday break?
Speaker 2: Very long and nice?
Speaker 1: Excellent? And all the Hunter Serrano? Howdy, how are you doing?
Speaker 1: I'm all right good, all right. Well, speaking of trying
Speaker 1: new things on the podcast, we're going to do a
Speaker 1: start of the year podcast, ten burning Questions for Texas
Speaker 1: Politics in twenty twenty six. We have compiled the Crack
Speaker 1: Politics team and I have compiled a list of questions
Speaker 1: from them. It goes a little bit beyond who's going
Speaker 1: to win and all that kind of stuff, But I
Speaker 1: think the things that are going to define Texas politics
Speaker 1: for the next ten years. We're going to collect y'all's thoughts,
Speaker 1: get your ideas, and see how this goes.
Speaker 2: Are you already ten years? Did I say ten years
Speaker 2: for the next year?
Speaker 1: Ten items for the next ten years, but the.
Speaker 3: Impact percussions will be a decade as long as ten years.
Speaker 1: Okay, are you al ready yes? All right? Question number
Speaker 1: one from the GOP Politics Group. Does the Greg Abbot
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four stick around in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is, as you all remember,
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, we saw the new powerful Greg
Speaker 1: Abbott Austin eight House members, really becoming the dominant political figure,
Speaker 1: not just his for his ability to win elections himself,
Speaker 1: but to affect the political futures of people across the state.
Speaker 1: What do we think about Greg Abbott coming into twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six, the next election season, in primary season going forward?
Speaker 4: Everyone looks at me, all right, I would ask, I
Speaker 4: don't know if it's Governor Greg abbit of twenty twenty
Speaker 4: four as much as I think the environment has changed.
Speaker 4: And I think back to like twenty seventeen when he
Speaker 4: had what like forty fifty million dollars and first stepped
Speaker 4: into primaries. Everyone was like, WHOA, what is the governor doing?
Speaker 4: So I think this is a new strategy. I mean
Speaker 4: he has like unmatched fine fundraising ability and I think
Speaker 4: unmatched desire in a lot of ways determination, And I
Speaker 4: think we're going to keep seeing more of what we've
Speaker 4: seen them. A reminder of this summer during the redistricting battle,
Speaker 4: where he was on a radio talk shown he said
Speaker 4: this is unprecedented and what I'm paraphrasing here, but what
Speaker 4: Democrats are used to is no more like we are
Speaker 4: going to use every tool we have. And I think
Speaker 4: that's what we're going to keep seeing.
Speaker 5: And I think we see that in I think he's
Speaker 5: already said in Telegraph that he plans to put a
Speaker 5: lot of resources into flipping Harris County red. He's recruited candidates.
Speaker 5: I think the Houston Chronicle reported this to run in
Speaker 5: every race on the ballot in Harris County, including in
Speaker 5: pretty blue seats. I think, like Jean Moose seat, he's
Speaker 5: recruited somebody to run against them. They might seem a
Speaker 5: little bit pie in the sky aspirations, but you know,
Speaker 5: I think he's going to focus his money and attention
Speaker 5: to doing what he can there.
Speaker 1: I feel like the difference between twenty twenty six and
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four is he had that issue to fight
Speaker 1: for in twenty twenty four, and what really changed was
Speaker 1: it was a fight that was within the party right,
Speaker 1: he picked aside. He threw his considerable resources toward that.
Speaker 1: He's kind of talking about that same way. I think
Speaker 1: he probably I don't know why he wouldn't enjoyed the
Speaker 1: idea of, like I am now the king, you know,
Speaker 1: you have to bow down to me, at least in
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. In that realm, he's talked about spending
Speaker 1: twenty five million dollars in twenty six. He has talked
Speaker 1: about property taxes and the possibility of a limiting property taxes,
Speaker 1: but property taxes are not a complicated controversial topic within
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, and so like I do wonder you
Speaker 1: talk about the circumstances being different, is like, does he
Speaker 1: have that wedge? Does he have that thing that he
Speaker 1: can do to sort of assert his will or maybe
Speaker 1: the difference is just they're already all on his side
Speaker 1: in this.
Speaker 3: Case, and I think there is a difference between I
Speaker 3: want to oust these specific House members who opposed vouchers
Speaker 3: who are Republicans with more conservative Republicans or more conservative
Speaker 3: on vouchers at least, then you know, I'm going to
Speaker 3: turn a traditionally blue county red. Like I think he
Speaker 3: probably will have some you know, successes there, whether it's
Speaker 3: with judges or things like that, but you know, we
Speaker 3: may actually see sort of what are the limits of
Speaker 3: a Republican governor's re or Republican political kingmaker's power in blue,
Speaker 3: you know, deeply blue urban areas in Texas. Like, you know,
Speaker 3: it's easy, I think, being in Austin or being in
Speaker 3: the capital to feel like there are no limits to
Speaker 3: what Republicans can do, and then you get out into
Speaker 3: like the blue urban areas and it's like, well, there
Speaker 3: are pretty significant limits to what you can do.
Speaker 4: One thing that I think it's interesting, though, is that
Speaker 4: it's not just property Texas or Harris County, mad it's
Speaker 4: also South Texas. It feels like he has like all
Speaker 4: these issues and he has a lot of money to
Speaker 4: pour into them. And one thing that's also carrious and
Speaker 4: very fascinate about the governors that he doesn't have a
Speaker 4: legislative background. He was a jurist, and the way he
Speaker 4: governs it is very different, like we see that with
Speaker 4: emergency declarations, disaster declarations, vetos. I mean, I'm sure we'll
Speaker 4: get into TC later, so I don't know, I'm curious.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think like the biggest test of his power,
Speaker 1: particularly within the Republican Party, will perhaps be the comptrollers race.
Speaker 1: You know, everyone knows the background here. He appointed Kelly
Speaker 1: Hancock as the acting comptroller. He immediately endorsed him. That
Speaker 1: did not stop to other, you know, fairly well known
Speaker 1: in Texas politics candidates from getting the race. Don Huffines,
Speaker 1: who had previously run against him as governor, a very
Speaker 1: conservative person, someone who I think could possibly be perceived
Speaker 1: as a bit of a headache for Abbott were he
Speaker 1: to be elected into office. Christie Krattick, someone who has
Speaker 1: in the past been talked about as a possible future
Speaker 1: governor of Texas. You know, a railroad commissioner, daughter of
Speaker 1: the former House speaker. He clearly wants Hancock to win.
Speaker 1: How much is he willing to really fight for him.
Speaker 1: And how much will it mean to the primary voters
Speaker 1: that Hancock has Abbot fighting for him. I think will
Speaker 1: be a really interesting test. That's a little bit different
Speaker 1: than the voucher test because it's not necessarily pitting the
Speaker 1: activist wing of the party against the moderate wing of
Speaker 1: the party, with Abbot taking the activist wing side.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Sorry, and I know you're covering the comptrollers, right, but
Speaker 3: if anything, it's taking sort of the you know, opposing
Speaker 3: the activists, right. I mean, King Hancock was a vote
Speaker 3: against Ken Paxton and the impeachment. That's sort of I
Speaker 3: feel like we have not heard as much about that
Speaker 3: as I sort of expected to yet, but it is
Speaker 3: sort of an issue.
Speaker 2: I mean, Alejandro, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Mean I think we will get a glimpse of an answer,
Speaker 4: not a definitive answer, but next week when the next
Speaker 4: filings campaign finance for are submitted to the state, and
Speaker 4: we'll see like how much of the candidates hauling, how
Speaker 4: much are people spending, and how much is sort of
Speaker 4: like the governor's apparatus trying to help Hancock because the
Speaker 4: other two candidates are prolific fundraised, I mean, Christocratic is
Speaker 4: mister half Fines has self funding his campaign and spent
Speaker 4: a lot to try to unseat the governor.
Speaker 1: So this leads to my next question, which is in
Speaker 1: the ten years that I have worked at the Tribune,
Speaker 1: coming up on eleven years, actually the story of Republican
Speaker 1: politics in the state has been the establishment versus the
Speaker 1: insurgent wing. Every election we sort of look at the
Speaker 1: results to see how did each side fare. And the
Speaker 1: question I have is what is the establishment in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six? Is there an establishment in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: and if so, who represents the establishment?
Speaker 3: I mean, this is I think also a question in
Speaker 3: some ways is like royaling national Republican politics as well.
Speaker 3: I mean, just like the sort of outsider we're not
Speaker 3: the swamp, we're not part of you know, where the
Speaker 3: outsider voices are now have so much power and are
Speaker 3: so central I think in some ways to the party
Speaker 3: apparatus that they have become the establishment in some ways,
Speaker 3: which makes it hard for them sort of. They're in
Speaker 3: a tricky position to try to be governing as outsiders
Speaker 3: and truth tellers when it's like, well, you guys just
Speaker 3: have if not a majority, like a real le powerful
Speaker 3: part of the party, but yeah, I mean I think
Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, what are you when you
Speaker 3: think about where the Republican Party is going? Who who
Speaker 3: is now the activist wing and who is the establishment wing?
Speaker 1: Or is that even how we should like a relevant.
Speaker 2: Framing, right?
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's hard to see where that distinction even
Speaker 5: lies anymore. Looking back at the legislative session, I mean,
Speaker 5: I think the activist wing got a lot of what
Speaker 5: they wanted. They like, got to carry a lot of
Speaker 5: big priorities through that tech his house, which I think
Speaker 5: normally we might see as a place where people might
Speaker 5: you know, stand up to that wing of the party.
Speaker 5: And it seems like people are in the Republican Party
Speaker 5: are very much in line and they're very much behind
Speaker 5: from behind Abbott as he's wielding this power. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I don't I don't know that there I don't see
Speaker 5: that much of a distinction.
Speaker 1: I mean, it feels to me like there has always
Speaker 1: been it is always It has been an effect relatively
Speaker 1: effective strategy, particularly in legislative races in other places, to
Speaker 1: pin an incumbent or an opponent really as a rhino right,
Speaker 1: and as the Republican power structure has moved to the
Speaker 1: right from say the days of Joe Strauss to the
Speaker 1: days of Dustin Burrows. How can can that rhino label
Speaker 1: continue to work? Is that something you can just kind
Speaker 1: of keep doing over and over again, or has this
Speaker 1: eventually you know, the people who are holding power and
Speaker 1: holding an influence in the legislature, have they moved enough
Speaker 1: to the right to keep the you know what used
Speaker 1: to be called the insurgent wing of the party party happy.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that'll be an interesting thing to
Speaker 1: watch in some of these races.
Speaker 3: And I think we saw a little bit of that,
Speaker 3: Like I mean in the speaker's race that started twenty
Speaker 3: twenty five, where it was like almost laughable, And I
Speaker 3: think we all talked, probably to members and Republicans who
Speaker 3: felt like, yeah, it's a little bit foolish to be saying,
Speaker 3: like Dustin Burrows this like lefty, you know, rhino, who's
Speaker 3: can you believe we're going to put him in.
Speaker 2: Charge of the party. It's like, that's almost laughable.
Speaker 3: It still was pretty effective, not effective enough to win him,
Speaker 3: you know, or to cost him the speakership, But like,
Speaker 3: I don't know that anyone is going to be retiring
Speaker 3: that as a way to describe someone, It just maybe
Speaker 3: will become less and less like connected to reality.
Speaker 5: And I think the issue maybe we might see that
Speaker 5: come up on is property taxes and maybe this push
Speaker 5: from the real right wing of you know, got to
Speaker 5: get rid of them entirely, and the reality just being like,
Speaker 5: that's really hard to do and what is the actual
Speaker 5: proposal to do that. So I could see it being
Speaker 5: wielded as you know, a cudgel in that way of
Speaker 5: insurgent like true activists versus the establishment. But I think
Speaker 5: that will run into the real like policy realities of
Speaker 5: how to go about doing that.
Speaker 4: I think, well, it's gonna be curious to see the
Speaker 4: role immigration plays in a lot of these races, and
Speaker 4: especially with legal border crossing so low. I mean last
Speaker 4: primary I remember like this, like races that were dominated
Speaker 4: about with messaging about border security, but they're really about vouchers,
Speaker 4: whereas like now, with crossing so low and immigration enforcement
Speaker 4: so increased, I wonder if what role that's going to
Speaker 4: play and if it has an impact, if that's going
Speaker 4: to lead to changes you know, next cycle.
Speaker 3: And I think you can say that about a lot
Speaker 3: of issue with President Trump in office now, it's like
Speaker 3: a lot of the big things that Republicans were like,
Speaker 3: you know, Texas needs to be the leader on this.
Speaker 3: The federal government isn't taking control of this are sort of,
Speaker 3: at least temporarily kind of non issues.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: I think about a lot of the social issues President
Speaker 3: Trump has taken, you know, very decisive action, and now
Speaker 3: you're sort of like, well, what is there to rail about?
Speaker 1: All right? Speaking of issues, last question in the GOP
Speaker 1: primary category, which is will Ken Paxton's personal issues matter
Speaker 1: to GOP primary voters?
Speaker 2: No, thank you, they haven't yet.
Speaker 1: Next, they have not so far. It is a different
Speaker 1: here's the case for it. I don't necessarily believe this case,
Speaker 1: but I'm going to make this build the straw man
Speaker 1: so you can mow it over, which is basically the
Speaker 1: attorney general's race. While it matt office. While it matters
Speaker 1: very much to us, particularly Eleanor.
Speaker 2: I don't like where this is going.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of PEOP people who don't even
Speaker 1: know who the Attorney General of Texas is.
Speaker 2: Not after I cover this race.
Speaker 1: Many people know who their US senators are. Much more
Speaker 1: money gets pumped into those races, and Kim Paxton is
Speaker 1: no longer the incumbent and that might cause for a
Speaker 1: different type of evaluation of him in this three person
Speaker 1: race where you have, you know, whether he's the establishment
Speaker 1: anymore or not, the person painted as the establishment candidate,
Speaker 1: John Cornyn, and you have another person trying to take
Speaker 1: up the maga mantle, trying to take up the anti
Speaker 1: establishment mantle, who does not have the baggage that Keim
Speaker 1: Paxton does. So you have a new office and you
Speaker 1: also have a different set of choices for voters. Does
Speaker 1: that change the equation at all? The answer is no,
Speaker 1: and we'll move on.
Speaker 2: No, I think ultimately, like I don't know that that is.
Speaker 3: Let me say this, Are there GOP primary voters who
Speaker 3: absolutely care about this and you know, maybe even like
Speaker 3: Ken Paxton's you know, style and politics, but are not
Speaker 3: going to vote for him because of his issues?
Speaker 2: Yes? Is that enough to sway the election?
Speaker 3: It might be enough to force a runoff, like you know,
Speaker 3: more people swinging towards Wesley Hunt or you know, but
Speaker 3: I'm skeptical that it is enough in the end to
Speaker 3: cost him the election.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: Okay, it's funny how we talk about Paxston like as
Speaker 1: the incumbent in this race.
Speaker 2: Even though he is not, in fact, like it's his
Speaker 2: race to lose. It's like, you know, well, I'd say.
Speaker 5: The other thing is also like he has obviously had
Speaker 5: all this legal baggage and he has emerged, you know,
Speaker 5: Victoria's charges have been dropped, he hasn't been impeached, you know,
Speaker 5: And I think that helps him paint himself as a
Speaker 5: fighter who's maligned by the establishment in the way of
Speaker 5: Donald Trump, who is, of course, are still very popular
Speaker 5: with primary voters.
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think for some people it'll
Speaker 2: help him.
Speaker 3: A complete hypothetical, would John Corny be helped if he
Speaker 3: had more issues and was being aligned by the Democratic established, he.
Speaker 1: Should have gotten you know, the Biden Justice Department to
Speaker 1: indict him.
Speaker 2: His kingdom for an indictment.
Speaker 1: That's right, Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Now, Democrats,
Speaker 1: should they play nice or sharpen their knives? This is
Speaker 1: particularly a Tall Rico versus Crockett framing, right, Tall Rico,
Speaker 1: every grandma's favorite candidate.
Speaker 5: The.
Speaker 1: Sweet, nice young man who used to be a teacher. Crockett,
Speaker 1: who has become famous for her willingness to very strongly
Speaker 1: go after Republican leaders. We could frame this question either way.
Speaker 1: Should they play nice with each other in order to
Speaker 1: ensure a strengthened candidate moving forward, or should they take
Speaker 1: the more conciliatory approach toward maybe moderate voters in order
Speaker 1: to be in a stronger position. Where do we think
Speaker 1: the mind is of the Democratic electorate right now? Calee,
Speaker 1: I'm going to start with you.
Speaker 5: I think the common wisdom is that Democratic primary voters
Speaker 5: want a fighter and someone who will stand up to
Speaker 5: Republicans and show that they're not impotent and just you know,
Speaker 5: going to write an angrily worded letter and call it
Speaker 5: at that. I think Jasmine Crockett pretty easily fits into that,
Speaker 5: you know, mold of what people seem to want. At
Speaker 5: the same time, I think we've heard Talerigo start rolling
Speaker 5: out some messaging to try to combat that characterization of
Speaker 5: her and this sort of automatic categorization of him as
Speaker 5: some like passive preacher piece hippie guy. And he's been
Speaker 5: saying like he has taken on Republicans as well, and
Speaker 5: he's also won He's passed legislation despite being in the minority.
Speaker 5: So I don't know actually that it's such a to
Speaker 5: like fighter versus not fighter.
Speaker 2: Choice, or at least that's what he's trying to make
Speaker 2: it not seem like one as much.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't know if you'll be able to
Speaker 5: change that perception of him as this, you know, loving guy.
Speaker 5: And I also think it's maybe dangerous for him to
Speaker 5: try to take out the knives against Jasmin Crockett. He
Speaker 5: came out very quickly being like, we have to respect
Speaker 5: and love everyone in this race, and that includes Jasmin Crockett.
Speaker 5: I think if he walked back from that now, it
Speaker 5: would be kind of striking, and it also would be
Speaker 5: him attacking this like fairly well liked person among Democratic
Speaker 5: primary voters.
Speaker 1: Listeners of the podcast will have had in their feed
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, while we were enjoying our holiday,
Speaker 1: my interview with tell Rico at the trip Fest. And
Speaker 1: to me, what was what they did not see in
Speaker 1: that feed and what to me is the most memorable
Speaker 1: part of that interview was we did that interview in
Speaker 1: Saint David's Church, which is a room of about like
Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty people, and you walk the to
Speaker 1: appear on stage, as you know, Eleanor because you also
Speaker 1: did this, you walk up a stairwell into the aisle
Speaker 1: of the church and you have to walk down the
Speaker 1: entire aisle almost like you're getting married to get up
Speaker 1: to the stage. And actually tell Rico made that joke.
Speaker 1: But something that I never have never experienced is walking
Speaker 1: into a room with someone that people are as excited
Speaker 1: to see as James Tellerico. As soon as like our
Speaker 1: heads kind of popped up, there was this like sort
Speaker 1: of like collective gasp and like cheer from the people
Speaker 1: in the room that was there, and I was like, wow,
Speaker 1: this is like you I know, yeah, of course, of
Speaker 1: course I did like try to have like no, they're
Speaker 1: not doing this for you, like here you go, but
Speaker 1: like that really stuck with me, and you know, to
Speaker 1: be completely honest, immediately after that was an interview with
Speaker 1: Colin Allread that I also did, and he did not
Speaker 1: generate that kind of reaction, and that really stuck with me.
Speaker 1: Alread obviously dropped out of the race, but there is
Speaker 1: that excitement around Tallerrico. The thing is is that you know,
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett didn't make it to trip Fest due to
Speaker 1: what was going on in Congress at the time. Would
Speaker 1: she have generated that same reaction? Probably yes, And I
Speaker 1: have actually been I make the joke about tall Rico
Speaker 1: being the grandma favorite. But like another speaking engagement I
Speaker 1: had recently was with a group in Austin called Women Vote,
Speaker 1: and it was a head of trip Fest and they
Speaker 1: were talking about the different people who were coming to Tripfest,
Speaker 1: and it was a group of you know, it was
Speaker 1: as jd Vance would call the elderly hippies, right, the
Speaker 1: older you know, Democratic leaning women, And the applause for
Speaker 1: Jasmine Crockett was just as palpable. And it is a
Speaker 1: pretty amazing sort of confluent. And so that that Texas
Speaker 1: has two of these people and they are in the
Speaker 1: same race, which leads me to my next question. Will
Speaker 1: Democrats regret not spreading out that talent more? Is this
Speaker 1: bad for the Democrats to have both of them on
Speaker 1: the ballot for the same race when they're trying to
Speaker 1: make gains up and down the ballot.
Speaker 5: I mean Democrats started with, like, I don't know, five
Speaker 5: pretty big names that were maybe gonna they wanted to
Speaker 5: form this slate to run in all these statewide offices
Speaker 5: to do exactly that and spread their talent, and now
Speaker 5: it's just the two of them, like they've kind of
Speaker 5: fallen off. I think Colin all Read dropping down to
Speaker 5: his congressional race obviously helps the party in terms of
Speaker 5: avoiding a runoff.
Speaker 2: But then again, you.
Speaker 3: Like he's just going into a spot where there's like
Speaker 3: you're having another competitive prime.
Speaker 1: Also right you're right now, and it's not helping your
Speaker 1: state wide ticket. I mean if you I would, I
Speaker 1: bet if we walked out on Congress Avenue right now
Speaker 1: and ask people to name a statewide candidate for any
Speaker 1: of the offices that are not named you know, taller
Speaker 1: Ico or Crockett, people would not be able to do.
Speaker 2: We should do that, We do that on the road.
Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean, I think that there was so
Speaker 3: much I don't know, like talk early on I think
Speaker 3: about or like rumored talk I guess about, you know,
Speaker 3: from these sort of luminaries of the Texas Party about
Speaker 3: getting sort of a super ticket, getting you know, like
Speaker 3: we really got to run this, and we got to
Speaker 3: run seriously, and we got to put like real talent
Speaker 3: in each of these races. And obviously there are candidate
Speaker 3: good candidates running in all of those races, but not
Speaker 3: the like name recognition cachet uh candidates. And I do wonder,
Speaker 3: like sometimes if those more i mean better work the castros,
Speaker 3: these like long slightly longer tenured leaders of the party
Speaker 3: or leading candidates of the party them decided not to run.
Speaker 3: I mean, do they feel like it's not winnable, Like
Speaker 3: do they feel like this is like just throwing you know,
Speaker 3: like they can do more as fundraisers or is sort
Speaker 3: of surrogates and they can do like putting their own
Speaker 3: name on it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think. I mean it's I think those
Speaker 1: two candidates and the other people who were interested in
Speaker 1: that race were particularly interested in it because of the
Speaker 1: possibility of running against Ken Paxson in the general election.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, I mean I think a lot
Speaker 1: about tall Ico, a former teacher. You know, education has
Speaker 1: been a big part of what he does. He made
Speaker 1: his name in the Texas legislature. Why is he not
Speaker 1: running for governor? And there's you know, twenty five million
Speaker 1: reasons why he's not running for governor and polls that
Speaker 1: would suggest that Abbott is a much much, much more
Speaker 1: difficult candidate to face anyways, But what they're missing is
Speaker 1: really the candidate that's willing to sort of stick their
Speaker 1: neck out, and that could be something that they that
Speaker 1: they feel for sure. Next question, question number six, what
Speaker 1: would a blue way look like in twenty twenty six?
Speaker 1: I will I will preface this by noting the last
Speaker 1: time we had the quote unquote blue wave was again
Speaker 1: a competitive Senate race twenty eighteen. Beto Arouric loses by
Speaker 1: less than three percentage points to Ted Cruz. But in
Speaker 1: the meantime, Democrats flip twelve seats in the Texas House
Speaker 1: and gain two seats in Congress. Doesn't seem very possible, Kayla,
Speaker 1: even if they get similar results at the top of
Speaker 1: the ballot this year.
Speaker 5: I mean, they've only lost ground since twenty eighteen. Obviously,
Speaker 5: next year they're hoping will resemble twenty eighteen more. To
Speaker 5: take back the Texas House, they would have to win
Speaker 5: fourteen seats, which just seems completely impossible and not going
Speaker 5: to happen. But I think they are hoping that, like
Speaker 5: Kempaxon will be the nominee and that that will make
Speaker 5: a blue wave that translates to a statewide flip possible.
Speaker 5: Democrats are running in every single race on the ballot,
Speaker 5: every federal and state race, and they're hoping that that
Speaker 5: means they can maximize their chances of flipping some seats
Speaker 5: and also send some energy up the ballot. But I
Speaker 5: mean again, yeah, I think it'll I think there's still
Speaker 5: a lot of months until November, and I think it'll
Speaker 5: depend on the economy, and I think the economy first
Speaker 5: and foremost.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 5: I don't know that it'll be such a giant, you
Speaker 5: know wave.
Speaker 1: And one of the main reasons for that, of course
Speaker 1: is redistricting. Right, twenty eighteen happened at the end of
Speaker 1: a decade. I mean, I guess we're only two years
Speaker 1: earlier in the decade, but we, you know, had a
Speaker 1: mid term or districting in Congress, which means, even if
Speaker 1: we have that kind of a result, it's more likely
Speaker 1: than not that Republicans will gain seats in Congress as
Speaker 1: opposed to Democrats. But in the Texas House, where things
Speaker 1: have been the most volatile in the past. You I'm
Speaker 1: quoting yourself back to you, Kyla, but you recently wrote
Speaker 1: that the House Democratic Campaign Committing Committee has identified five
Speaker 1: target seats, four that Democrats tried and failed to flip
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four and one seat that they lost
Speaker 1: during that time. Five is a very small number, and
Speaker 1: you almost never hit all your target seats, so we
Speaker 1: could really be talking about even if you see a
Speaker 1: Beto like performance at the top, that not really changing
Speaker 1: the dynamic in the legislature much, if at all, which
Speaker 1: is just an interesting difference.
Speaker 4: I think one data point that would help the argument
Speaker 4: that there is a blue wave when we do the
Speaker 4: after action analysis whatever, is if Democrats can complicate the
Speaker 4: narratives belatinos, because I feel like least election showed Republicans
Speaker 4: have made great inroads and that was happening for years.
Speaker 4: I mean, the GUP invested in South Texas and also
Speaker 4: you saw that in some hds in the Houston area.
Speaker 4: So it's not a surprise that the governor with eighty
Speaker 4: seven billion dollars wants to focus on Harrison County and
Speaker 4: keep making those in roads and get people out to vote,
Speaker 4: like low propensity voters. So I think that's gonna be
Speaker 4: one of the key things to look out for.
Speaker 3: I was just gonna the only thing I was gonna
Speaker 3: add on redistricting is I do wonder also about whether,
Speaker 3: and you know it has, redistricting has created a little
Speaker 3: bit more awareness around all of this, right, Like I
Speaker 3: think obviously like that primarily affects congressional seats. But I
Speaker 3: think a lot of people don't like the idea that like, oh,
Speaker 3: like my vote has kind of been taken away from me.
Speaker 3: My vote feels like it doesn't matter as much. I
Speaker 3: don't get to like pick who I want and like,
Speaker 3: does that mobilize some people Trump is not at the
Speaker 3: top of the ticket. There are people who are pissed
Speaker 3: off about what Trump is doing. You know, does that
Speaker 3: motivate some Democrats to come out and vote? But is
Speaker 3: that enough to strategically shift things in the House.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question, and let's
Speaker 1: use it as a transition to the next one. I mean,
Speaker 1: al Hunter, you talked about some of the kind of
Speaker 1: trends that happened. This to me is like the question
Speaker 1: of Texas politics for the next decade. As I said,
Speaker 1: the next ten years is basically was the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four election a blip or a sign of political reshuffling
Speaker 1: in Texas? And I'll set that up a little bit
Speaker 1: more right, which is that we have had we have
Speaker 1: all gone through this cycle right many times where it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: do Democrats have a chance And the answer has been no,
Speaker 1: but that has sort of belied the fact that the
Speaker 1: margins were shrinking. Right, you had Trump winning by sixteen
Speaker 1: points in twenty sixteen, you had Biden losing by Now
Speaker 1: I'm going to get all mixed up, but basically you
Speaker 1: had a sixteen margin, a twelve margin, a nine margin,
Speaker 1: like it was going down. And then in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four it went right back up to Trump winning by
Speaker 1: around fourteen and beyond that. The reason that that happened
Speaker 1: was some significant changes in some of the demographics that
Speaker 1: Democrats had identified. Eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump
Speaker 1: swung plus eight percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four and essentially almost ran even there. Trump swung plus
Speaker 1: six percent among thirty to forty four year olds. You know,
Speaker 1: young people moved dramatically to the right. Latinos even more so,
Speaker 1: a fourteen percent swing. Where basically this is according to
Speaker 1: exit polls from those two late races, Biden winning fifty
Speaker 1: eight to forty one among Latino voters in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: Trump winning fifty five forty five among Latinos. Four years later, Sorry,
Speaker 1: did I say Trump winning fifty five to forty five? Yeah?
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, we got it, and then the but
Speaker 1: there you know, the question is are those gains a
Speaker 1: reflection of a re orientation of Texas politics that would
Speaker 1: further entrench Republican dominance or was there something special about
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four that caused this? And we're going to
Speaker 1: go back to the trends we were already facing.
Speaker 2: I think a mix of both.
Speaker 4: I mean, not to cop out, yeah, but I think
Speaker 4: you know, I was interviewing someone first story recently. They
Speaker 4: described the Latino voter block as kind of like the
Speaker 4: power brokers who don't even know it yet because the
Speaker 4: population has changed so much and it's going to keep changing,
Speaker 4: and that's why both parties are rightfully so paying so
Speaker 4: much attention. But you bring up young voters, and I
Speaker 4: think that is another like almost overlooked voter block, because
Speaker 4: Trump did make like a lot of inroads across the
Speaker 4: country with young voters, and it's curious to see how
Speaker 4: people in Texas are focusing on them. You know, you
Speaker 4: have the government tenant governor backing these turning point clubs
Speaker 4: at high schools. It's not voting yet age, but you know,
Speaker 4: you get people animated and encouraging the political process you
Speaker 4: have a turning in general can pat and stumping at
Speaker 4: turning point college chapters where people can vote. So I
Speaker 4: think both those are I don't think it looks like
Speaker 4: the GPS not seeing that for granted, and that might
Speaker 4: kind of gets to answer about maybe it was a realignment.
Speaker 4: But I also like scrutinized hypothesis and it's like, well,
Speaker 4: has the environment change like back to how we started?
Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? I mean the polls would suggest that Trump
Speaker 1: is much less popular among Latino voters and young voters,
Speaker 1: for instance, than he was a year ago. Pupil came
Speaker 1: out in November, fifty five percent of Latino voters. This
Speaker 1: is nationwide, not just in Texas strongly disapproving of the
Speaker 1: work he's doing as president. Seventy percent overall disapproving. When
Speaker 1: you in factor in strongly and I guess less strongly.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's significant and I think probably has
Speaker 1: you know, some people in Texas a little bit worried.
Speaker 2: I think in a lot of ways like that will
Speaker 2: be the.
Speaker 3: Story we are most watching coming out of the twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six elections is just like, you know, does that persist?
Speaker 3: And I think what happens in Texas on that front
Speaker 3: will or be used as like a crystal ball on
Speaker 3: a lot of national politics going forward.
Speaker 1: So that leads to another questions with redistricting, did Republicans
Speaker 1: overplay their hand in South Texas? Will they gain those
Speaker 1: seats that they you know, so proudly touted after the
Speaker 1: redistricting in last year.
Speaker 3: Well doesn't help the President Trump part in the Quay
Speaker 3: are I mean, I think I do think like those
Speaker 3: you know, like you said, like you were saying about
Speaker 3: the House seats, right, like if you target five, you
Speaker 3: don't always get five, right. I think President Trump wanted
Speaker 3: five seats in Texas out of redistricting. I think the
Speaker 3: two that are you know, up for debate are those
Speaker 3: in the valley. And I think again it's just going
Speaker 3: to be a real bell weather for like where both
Speaker 3: parties focus their energy in the coming years with this
Speaker 3: weird caveat of Henry Quay are one of the most
Speaker 3: you know, moderate Democrats who had been running under this
Speaker 3: cloud of you know, indictment, pardoned by President Trump, who
Speaker 3: pretty clearly, I think from a social media post, thought
Speaker 3: he would be switching to the Republican Party after that.
Speaker 3: He's you know, running against a Republican who previously was
Speaker 3: a Democrat in switching the party. So it's just like
Speaker 3: a very politically nuanced place that I think republican. I mean,
Speaker 3: I think both parties have struggled to like approach with
Speaker 3: like a statewide approach to be like, oh they're ours, No,
Speaker 3: they're hours. It's like they're themselves. The value belongs to itself.
Speaker 3: They're going to do what they're going to do, and
Speaker 3: everyone will spend the next five years like analyzing what
Speaker 3: it all meant, and it will just mean like the
Speaker 3: valley is the valley.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the two candidates Kayla who are being targeted,
Speaker 1: Henry Quaiar has already mentioned Vicente A. Gonzalez, the other
Speaker 1: Democrat down there, both have a history of outperforming the
Speaker 1: top of the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: These are two meekly durable Democrats that I think are
Speaker 5: very much tailored to their districts and well known in
Speaker 5: their districts. And so I think obviously Democrats see those
Speaker 5: two as their best chances of defending you know, those
Speaker 5: seats and making sure the Republicans don't get all five
Speaker 5: seats that they jerrymandered to get this summer, did Republicans
Speaker 5: overplay their hands. I don't know, because at least in Texas,
Speaker 5: they seem poised to get at least those three additional seats.
Speaker 1: Which is pretty unusual. I mean, you wouldn't expect to
Speaker 1: happen in a regular mid term election with the Republican
Speaker 1: Party in power, right, That's not the way the trend
Speaker 1: usually goes totally.
Speaker 5: And I think maybe on the national level, you could
Speaker 5: say maybe it does seem like Republicans overplayed their hand
Speaker 5: in launching this redistricting war. I don't know the exact
Speaker 5: math at this point, but it seems like the gains
Speaker 5: that Trump had demanded are pretty much wiped out, if
Speaker 5: not eaten into by you know, reactive democratic jerrymandering. But
Speaker 5: at least in Texas, it seems like they are going
Speaker 5: to get at least those three seats and you know,
Speaker 5: further solidify their dominance in our delegation.
Speaker 1: So question number nine, what will be the dominant issues
Speaker 1: when I'm watching trying to watch college basketball in February
Speaker 1: or college football in October? What are the topics that
Speaker 1: I'm going to be so tired of hearing about because
Speaker 1: of all the commercials and ads that are being bought
Speaker 1: by the candidates like.
Speaker 3: Good governance, transparency, just meeting the peoples.
Speaker 2: Affordability.
Speaker 4: I think primaries maybe like usual suspects. I think Immigration
Speaker 4: Center recorrn's going down to the border this week. That
Speaker 4: comes to mind.
Speaker 5: The economy, Yeah, I think affordability is just going to
Speaker 5: be the buzzword of twenty twenty six, and everyone's going
Speaker 5: to paint themselves as sort of a populist fighter for
Speaker 5: the working person and the middle class. And that to
Speaker 5: me feels like what we're gonna hear a lot of okay.
Speaker 1: And Trump, right, I mean, the one of the reasons
Speaker 1: I asked this question, I guess it's just like, is
Speaker 1: there is there is anything going to be able to
Speaker 1: break through just the Trump focus? Right? It feels to
Speaker 1: me like even you know, even when we're talking about
Speaker 1: attorney general, right, like I'm the I'm getting the mailers now,
Speaker 1: Maga May's Middleton, right, Like, even even in races that
Speaker 1: you might not think have much to do with the president,
Speaker 1: they're talking about the president on both sides. Controller right exactly. Yeah, Yeah, I.
Speaker 5: Mean I think for Republicans, they want to like make
Speaker 5: it seem like Trump is at the top of the
Speaker 5: ticket as much as they can, you know, especially in
Speaker 5: their primary Democrats, I don't know, I feel like I've
Speaker 5: heard less, you know, explicit anti Trump messaging, although maybe
Speaker 5: maybe Jasmine Crockett is just like the anti Trump fighter,
Speaker 5: but I don't know, I feel like I've heard a
Speaker 5: lot more focus on economic populism, and yeah, that's.
Speaker 1: Kind of thing. It's interesting that you use the word affordability,
Speaker 1: which has of course been sort of become the buzzword
Speaker 1: for Democrats, you know, nationally. How does that play out
Speaker 1: in Texas, I think is a really interesting question. I mean,
Speaker 1: Texas has you know, traditionally been in an affordable state. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of concern about like how dozing prices and
Speaker 1: things like that possibly changing that to the extent that
Speaker 1: that that was a pretty high priority for Republicans this
Speaker 1: past session. They passed some significant bills there, some with
Speaker 1: the support of many with the support of Democrats. Property
Speaker 1: taxes obviously play a factor in there too. I wonder
Speaker 1: how how much of a cudgel can affordability be for
Speaker 1: Democrats in Texas.
Speaker 4: And I think also national and foreign affairs is going
Speaker 4: to affect how much candidates lean into or away from Trump.
Speaker 1: Now it was morning.
Speaker 4: Else was in don pr and they had a report
Speaker 4: out of Houston about how oil companies do you get
Speaker 4: oil out from Venezuela. It's gonna be great for them,
Speaker 4: but not for the Texas economy. And then that effects
Speaker 4: are revenue, and that affects mainly one of the races,
Speaker 4: the person who collects that revenue, and then that affects
Speaker 4: the other races who he gives that revenue to. I
Speaker 4: don't know. So that's gonna also be interesting how these
Speaker 4: really massive, unprecedented, you know, global actions trickle down to us.
Speaker 5: I wonder if the finer point for Democrats here in
Speaker 5: Texas on affordability is healthcare, and if they are going
Speaker 5: to be trying to focus in on that more and
Speaker 5: to you know, again put a finer point to the
Speaker 5: affordability argument.
Speaker 1: But yeah, and then I'm also you know, to go
Speaker 1: back to the question of like, what are the commercials
Speaker 1: I'm going to have to be watching, you know, while
Speaker 1: while trying to just not think about work and enjoy sports.
Speaker 1: I mean two years ago, twenty twenty four, it was
Speaker 1: social issues, it was you know, trans athletes and those
Speaker 1: types of things. It'll be curious to know whether that
Speaker 1: is still on people's minds two years later.
Speaker 3: I think what I mean, I was sort of saying
Speaker 3: this with like, you know, so many things have been
Speaker 3: sort of addressed by President Trump in Texas and the
Speaker 3: state of Texas in a way that like closed law
Speaker 3: of doors to campaigning on it. One thing that has
Speaker 3: emerged in i mean the last several months or has
Speaker 3: like reflamed is like pretty overt Islamophobia. I think is
Speaker 3: like a lot of candidates are really campaigning on that,
Speaker 3: and candidates to have like nothing to do, you know,
Speaker 3: offices that obviously have very little to do with you know,
Speaker 3: people being Muslim is getting a lot of airtime, and
Speaker 3: so I'm curious to see how much that like penetrates
Speaker 3: beyond like oh we're it an activist you know, you know,
Speaker 3: debate into like we're creating ads.
Speaker 2: About this, like this is a top issue. I think
Speaker 2: that would be a real pivot, yeah, for sure.
Speaker 1: And also, I mean, again going back to Trump, right,
Speaker 1: like so many of these I think Republican primaries are
Speaker 1: going to be fighting over who actually represents the MAGA
Speaker 1: movement and who like can actually carry that mantle. You know,
Speaker 1: Cornyan is doing this already in the Senate race, talking
Speaker 1: about how much she votes for him, Like, can he
Speaker 1: convince people that get people to buy that, because you know,
Speaker 1: there's his two opponents are going to be trying to
Speaker 1: push against that as much as they possibly can. And
Speaker 1: then I guess we'll see whether Trump endorses in this
Speaker 1: race or any others. It'll be fun to watch.
Speaker 3: I think he loves the feeling of you know, they're
Speaker 3: all waiting for me to tell her who to vote
Speaker 3: for exactly.
Speaker 1: Okay, last question, let's play Nate Silver. What are the
Speaker 1: what are what's the percentage chance of a Democrat actually
Speaker 1: winning a statewide race.
Speaker 2: In Texas, any.
Speaker 1: State wide race, if if they win some random Supreme
Speaker 1: Court seat, Yeah, it counts all.
Speaker 2: Right, any statewide seat in the scale starts at zero.
Speaker 1: It's zero to one hundred.
Speaker 5: Percent that they have a chance percent chance.
Speaker 1: Yeah like yeah, like like Nate Silver's.
Speaker 2: I'll do fourt wow whoa.
Speaker 1: I was going to say five, whoa. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Honestly, it's not computing.
Speaker 2: In my head.
Speaker 1: Zero if you want.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's zero.
Speaker 5: I think it's pretty low.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 5: It's just not competing in my head right now. I
Speaker 5: think if they were to win a state wide. See,
Speaker 5: it would be like by point five of a point.
Speaker 2: Like half a percent.
Speaker 3: A win is a win.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Kayla copped out? Where are you going
Speaker 1: to play?
Speaker 4: I could give you like a three.
Speaker 3: I don't know, Okay, So no one's going against five,
Speaker 3: no one's going over five.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, you know, if you had ask me
Speaker 1: on Friday, what are the percent chants that you know
Speaker 1: the US would you know, armed forces would enter Venezuela
Speaker 1: and arrest happen. You know, like there's a lot of
Speaker 1: interesting things that could completely shake things up. But I agree,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a remote chance.
Speaker 3: And I'll say, if we are wrong, we will have
Speaker 3: whoever wins on tripcast and we will apologize formally for
Speaker 3: doubting their electoral acumen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, great, Well, thank y'all for this. It'll be
Speaker 1: a very exciting and interesting year, a very busy year
Speaker 1: for the three of you, but looking forward to it.
Speaker 1: Also thanks to Robin Chris for our excellent new theme music,
Speaker 1: which hopefully you will hear as we play you out
Speaker 1: and we will talk to you next week.