Speaker 1: Do not adjust your podcast playing device. This is the
Texas Trips Texas Tribune trip Cast, and I am Matthew Watkins.
And you just heard some new theme music for the
trip Cast, A nice new jam by our producers, Robin Chris.
What do you think, Eleanor?
Speaker 2: I love it? New year, new music, new US.
Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: That voice you heard, of course, is Eleanor Klibanoff, law
and politics reporter for the Tribune.
Speaker 2: Still same me, Still same, Eleanor.
Speaker 1: Any any New Year's resolutions?
Speaker 3: Do more trip Cast, have more fun with the Tripcast.
We're gonna get weird on the trip Cast this year.
Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, that's right. Stick around the new music,
new US. Yeah. This week we are joined by two
politics reporters, Kayla Glow. Hello, Kayla. Hi, Matthew, how is
your holiday break?
Speaker 2: Very long and nice?
Speaker 1: Excellent? And all the Hunter Serrano? Howdy, how are you doing?
I'm all right good, all right. Well, speaking of trying
new things on the podcast, we're going to do a
start of the year podcast, ten burning Questions for Texas
Politics in twenty twenty six. We have compiled the Crack
Politics team and I have compiled a list of questions
from them. It goes a little bit beyond who's going
to win and all that kind of stuff, But I
think the things that are going to define Texas politics
for the next ten years. We're going to collect y'all's thoughts,
get your ideas, and see how this goes.
Speaker 2: Are you already ten years? Did I say ten years
for the next year?
Speaker 1: Ten items for the next ten years, but the.
Speaker 3: Impact percussions will be a decade as long as ten years.
Speaker 1: Okay, are you al ready yes? All right? Question number
one from the GOP Politics Group. Does the Greg Abbot
of twenty twenty four stick around in twenty twenty six?
And what I mean by that is, as you all remember,
in twenty twenty four, we saw the new powerful Greg
Abbott Austin eight House members, really becoming the dominant political figure,
not just his for his ability to win elections himself,
but to affect the political futures of people across the state.
What do we think about Greg Abbott coming into twenty
twenty six, the next election season, in primary season going forward?
Speaker 4: Everyone looks at me, all right, I would ask, I
don't know if it's Governor Greg abbit of twenty twenty
four as much as I think the environment has changed.
And I think back to like twenty seventeen when he
had what like forty fifty million dollars and first stepped
into primaries. Everyone was like, WHOA, what is the governor doing?
So I think this is a new strategy. I mean
he has like unmatched fine fundraising ability and I think
unmatched desire in a lot of ways determination, And I
think we're going to keep seeing more of what we've
seen them. A reminder of this summer during the redistricting battle,
where he was on a radio talk shown he said
this is unprecedented and what I'm paraphrasing here, but what
Democrats are used to is no more like we are
going to use every tool we have. And I think
that's what we're going to keep seeing.
Speaker 5: And I think we see that in I think he's
already said in Telegraph that he plans to put a
lot of resources into flipping Harris County red. He's recruited candidates.
I think the Houston Chronicle reported this to run in
every race on the ballot in Harris County, including in
pretty blue seats. I think, like Jean Moose seat, he's
recruited somebody to run against them. They might seem a
little bit pie in the sky aspirations, but you know,
I think he's going to focus his money and attention
to doing what he can there.
Speaker 1: I feel like the difference between twenty twenty six and
twenty twenty four is he had that issue to fight
for in twenty twenty four, and what really changed was
it was a fight that was within the party right,
he picked aside. He threw his considerable resources toward that.
He's kind of talking about that same way. I think
he probably I don't know why he wouldn't enjoyed the
idea of, like I am now the king, you know,
you have to bow down to me, at least in
the Republican Party. In that realm, he's talked about spending
twenty five million dollars in twenty six. He has talked
about property taxes and the possibility of a limiting property taxes,
but property taxes are not a complicated controversial topic within
the Republican Party, and so like I do wonder you
talk about the circumstances being different, is like, does he
have that wedge? Does he have that thing that he
can do to sort of assert his will or maybe
the difference is just they're already all on his side
in this.
Speaker 3: Case, and I think there is a difference between I
want to oust these specific House members who opposed vouchers
who are Republicans with more conservative Republicans or more conservative
on vouchers at least, then you know, I'm going to
turn a traditionally blue county red. Like I think he
probably will have some you know, successes there, whether it's
with judges or things like that, but you know, we
may actually see sort of what are the limits of
a Republican governor's re or Republican political kingmaker's power in blue,
you know, deeply blue urban areas in Texas. Like, you know,
it's easy, I think, being in Austin or being in
the capital to feel like there are no limits to
what Republicans can do, and then you get out into
like the blue urban areas and it's like, well, there
are pretty significant limits to what you can do.
Speaker 4: One thing that I think it's interesting, though, is that
it's not just property Texas or Harris County, mad it's
also South Texas. It feels like he has like all
these issues and he has a lot of money to
pour into them. And one thing that's also carrious and
very fascinate about the governors that he doesn't have a
legislative background. He was a jurist, and the way he
governs it is very different, like we see that with
emergency declarations, disaster declarations, vetos. I mean, I'm sure we'll
get into TC later, so I don't know, I'm curious.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think like the biggest test of his power,
particularly within the Republican Party, will perhaps be the comptrollers race.
You know, everyone knows the background here. He appointed Kelly
Hancock as the acting comptroller. He immediately endorsed him. That
did not stop to other, you know, fairly well known
in Texas politics candidates from getting the race. Don Huffines,
who had previously run against him as governor, a very
conservative person, someone who I think could possibly be perceived
as a bit of a headache for Abbott were he
to be elected into office. Christie Krattick, someone who has
in the past been talked about as a possible future
governor of Texas. You know, a railroad commissioner, daughter of
the former House speaker. He clearly wants Hancock to win.
How much is he willing to really fight for him.
And how much will it mean to the primary voters
that Hancock has Abbot fighting for him. I think will
be a really interesting test. That's a little bit different
than the voucher test because it's not necessarily pitting the
activist wing of the party against the moderate wing of
the party, with Abbot taking the activist wing side.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: Sorry, and I know you're covering the comptrollers, right, but
if anything, it's taking sort of the you know, opposing
the activists, right. I mean, King Hancock was a vote
against Ken Paxton and the impeachment. That's sort of I
feel like we have not heard as much about that
as I sort of expected to yet, but it is
sort of an issue.
Speaker 2: I mean, Alejandro, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Mean I think we will get a glimpse of an answer,
not a definitive answer, but next week when the next
filings campaign finance for are submitted to the state, and
we'll see like how much of the candidates hauling, how
much are people spending, and how much is sort of
like the governor's apparatus trying to help Hancock because the
other two candidates are prolific fundraised, I mean, Christocratic is
mister half Fines has self funding his campaign and spent
a lot to try to unseat the governor.
Speaker 1: So this leads to my next question, which is in
the ten years that I have worked at the Tribune,
coming up on eleven years, actually the story of Republican
politics in the state has been the establishment versus the
insurgent wing. Every election we sort of look at the
results to see how did each side fare. And the
question I have is what is the establishment in twenty
twenty six? Is there an establishment in twenty twenty six,
and if so, who represents the establishment?
Speaker 3: I mean, this is I think also a question in
some ways is like royaling national Republican politics as well.
I mean, just like the sort of outsider we're not
the swamp, we're not part of you know, where the
outsider voices are now have so much power and are
so central I think in some ways to the party
apparatus that they have become the establishment in some ways,
which makes it hard for them sort of. They're in
a tricky position to try to be governing as outsiders
and truth tellers when it's like, well, you guys just
have if not a majority, like a real le powerful
part of the party, but yeah, I mean I think
I don't know. I mean, what are you when you
think about where the Republican Party is going? Who who
is now the activist wing and who is the establishment wing?
Speaker 1: Or is that even how we should like a relevant.
Speaker 2: Framing, right?
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's hard to see where that distinction even
lies anymore. Looking back at the legislative session, I mean,
I think the activist wing got a lot of what
they wanted. They like, got to carry a lot of
big priorities through that tech his house, which I think
normally we might see as a place where people might
you know, stand up to that wing of the party.
And it seems like people are in the Republican Party
are very much in line and they're very much behind
from behind Abbott as he's wielding this power. So yeah,
I don't I don't know that there I don't see
that much of a distinction.
Speaker 1: I mean, it feels to me like there has always
been it is always It has been an effect relatively
effective strategy, particularly in legislative races in other places, to
pin an incumbent or an opponent really as a rhino right,
and as the Republican power structure has moved to the
right from say the days of Joe Strauss to the
days of Dustin Burrows. How can can that rhino label
continue to work? Is that something you can just kind
of keep doing over and over again, or has this
eventually you know, the people who are holding power and
holding an influence in the legislature, have they moved enough
to the right to keep the you know what used
to be called the insurgent wing of the party party happy.
I mean, I think that'll be an interesting thing to
watch in some of these races.
Speaker 3: And I think we saw a little bit of that,
Like I mean in the speaker's race that started twenty
twenty five, where it was like almost laughable, And I
think we all talked, probably to members and Republicans who
felt like, yeah, it's a little bit foolish to be saying,
like Dustin Burrows this like lefty, you know, rhino, who's
can you believe we're going to put him in.
Speaker 2: Charge of the party. It's like, that's almost laughable.
Speaker 3: It still was pretty effective, not effective enough to win him,
you know, or to cost him the speakership, But like,
I don't know that anyone is going to be retiring
that as a way to describe someone, It just maybe
will become less and less like connected to reality.
Speaker 5: And I think the issue maybe we might see that
come up on is property taxes and maybe this push
from the real right wing of you know, got to
get rid of them entirely, and the reality just being like,
that's really hard to do and what is the actual
proposal to do that. So I could see it being
wielded as you know, a cudgel in that way of
insurgent like true activists versus the establishment. But I think
that will run into the real like policy realities of
how to go about doing that.
Speaker 4: I think, well, it's gonna be curious to see the
role immigration plays in a lot of these races, and
especially with legal border crossing so low. I mean last
primary I remember like this, like races that were dominated
about with messaging about border security, but they're really about vouchers,
whereas like now, with crossing so low and immigration enforcement
so increased, I wonder if what role that's going to
play and if it has an impact, if that's going
to lead to changes you know, next cycle.
Speaker 3: And I think you can say that about a lot
of issue with President Trump in office now, it's like
a lot of the big things that Republicans were like,
you know, Texas needs to be the leader on this.
The federal government isn't taking control of this are sort of,
at least temporarily kind of non issues.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: I think about a lot of the social issues President
Trump has taken, you know, very decisive action, and now
you're sort of like, well, what is there to rail about?
Speaker 1: All right? Speaking of issues, last question in the GOP
primary category, which is will Ken Paxton's personal issues matter
to GOP primary voters?
Speaker 2: No, thank you, they haven't yet.
Speaker 1: Next, they have not so far. It is a different
here's the case for it. I don't necessarily believe this case,
but I'm going to make this build the straw man
so you can mow it over, which is basically the
attorney general's race. While it matt office. While it matters
very much to us, particularly Eleanor.
Speaker 2: I don't like where this is going.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of PEOP people who don't even
know who the Attorney General of Texas is.
Speaker 2: Not after I cover this race.
Speaker 1: Many people know who their US senators are. Much more
money gets pumped into those races, and Kim Paxton is
no longer the incumbent and that might cause for a
different type of evaluation of him in this three person
race where you have, you know, whether he's the establishment
anymore or not, the person painted as the establishment candidate,
John Cornyn, and you have another person trying to take
up the maga mantle, trying to take up the anti
establishment mantle, who does not have the baggage that Keim
Paxton does. So you have a new office and you
also have a different set of choices for voters. Does
that change the equation at all? The answer is no,
and we'll move on.
Speaker 2: No, I think ultimately, like I don't know that that is.
Speaker 3: Let me say this, Are there GOP primary voters who
absolutely care about this and you know, maybe even like
Ken Paxton's you know, style and politics, but are not
going to vote for him because of his issues?
Speaker 2: Yes? Is that enough to sway the election?
Speaker 3: It might be enough to force a runoff, like you know,
more people swinging towards Wesley Hunt or you know, but
I'm skeptical that it is enough in the end to
cost him the election.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: Okay, it's funny how we talk about Paxston like as
the incumbent in this race.
Speaker 2: Even though he is not, in fact, like it's his
race to lose. It's like, you know, well, I'd say.
Speaker 5: The other thing is also like he has obviously had
all this legal baggage and he has emerged, you know,
Victoria's charges have been dropped, he hasn't been impeached, you know,
And I think that helps him paint himself as a
fighter who's maligned by the establishment in the way of
Donald Trump, who is, of course, are still very popular
with primary voters.
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think for some people it'll
help him.
Speaker 3: A complete hypothetical, would John Corny be helped if he
had more issues and was being aligned by the Democratic established, he.
Speaker 1: Should have gotten you know, the Biden Justice Department to
indict him.
Speaker 2: His kingdom for an indictment.
Speaker 1: That's right, Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Now, Democrats,
should they play nice or sharpen their knives? This is
particularly a Tall Rico versus Crockett framing, right, Tall Rico,
every grandma's favorite candidate.
Speaker 5: The.
Speaker 1: Sweet, nice young man who used to be a teacher. Crockett,
who has become famous for her willingness to very strongly
go after Republican leaders. We could frame this question either way.
Should they play nice with each other in order to
ensure a strengthened candidate moving forward, or should they take
the more conciliatory approach toward maybe moderate voters in order
to be in a stronger position. Where do we think
the mind is of the Democratic electorate right now? Calee,
I'm going to start with you.
Speaker 5: I think the common wisdom is that Democratic primary voters
want a fighter and someone who will stand up to
Republicans and show that they're not impotent and just you know,
going to write an angrily worded letter and call it
at that. I think Jasmine Crockett pretty easily fits into that,
you know, mold of what people seem to want. At
the same time, I think we've heard Talerigo start rolling
out some messaging to try to combat that characterization of
her and this sort of automatic categorization of him as
some like passive preacher piece hippie guy. And he's been
saying like he has taken on Republicans as well, and
he's also won He's passed legislation despite being in the minority.
So I don't know actually that it's such a to
like fighter versus not fighter.
Speaker 2: Choice, or at least that's what he's trying to make
it not seem like one as much.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't know if you'll be able to
change that perception of him as this, you know, loving guy.
And I also think it's maybe dangerous for him to
try to take out the knives against Jasmin Crockett. He
came out very quickly being like, we have to respect
and love everyone in this race, and that includes Jasmin Crockett.
I think if he walked back from that now, it
would be kind of striking, and it also would be
him attacking this like fairly well liked person among Democratic
primary voters.
Speaker 1: Listeners of the podcast will have had in their feed
a couple of weeks ago, while we were enjoying our holiday,
my interview with tell Rico at the trip Fest. And
to me, what was what they did not see in
that feed and what to me is the most memorable
part of that interview was we did that interview in
Saint David's Church, which is a room of about like
three hundred and fifty people, and you walk the to
appear on stage, as you know, Eleanor because you also
did this, you walk up a stairwell into the aisle
of the church and you have to walk down the
entire aisle almost like you're getting married to get up
to the stage. And actually tell Rico made that joke.
But something that I never have never experienced is walking
into a room with someone that people are as excited
to see as James Tellerico. As soon as like our
heads kind of popped up, there was this like sort
of like collective gasp and like cheer from the people
in the room that was there, and I was like, wow,
this is like you I know, yeah, of course, of
course I did like try to have like no, they're
not doing this for you, like here you go, but
like that really stuck with me, and you know, to
be completely honest, immediately after that was an interview with
Colin Allread that I also did, and he did not
generate that kind of reaction, and that really stuck with me.
Alread obviously dropped out of the race, but there is
that excitement around Tallerrico. The thing is is that you know,
Jasmine Crockett didn't make it to trip Fest due to
what was going on in Congress at the time. Would
she have generated that same reaction? Probably yes, And I
have actually been I make the joke about tall Rico
being the grandma favorite. But like another speaking engagement I
had recently was with a group in Austin called Women Vote,
and it was a head of trip Fest and they
were talking about the different people who were coming to Tripfest,
and it was a group of you know, it was
as jd Vance would call the elderly hippies, right, the
older you know, Democratic leaning women, And the applause for
Jasmine Crockett was just as palpable. And it is a
pretty amazing sort of confluent. And so that that Texas
has two of these people and they are in the
same race, which leads me to my next question. Will
Democrats regret not spreading out that talent more? Is this
bad for the Democrats to have both of them on
the ballot for the same race when they're trying to
make gains up and down the ballot.
Speaker 5: I mean Democrats started with, like, I don't know, five
pretty big names that were maybe gonna they wanted to
form this slate to run in all these statewide offices
to do exactly that and spread their talent, and now
it's just the two of them, like they've kind of
fallen off. I think Colin all Read dropping down to
his congressional race obviously helps the party in terms of
avoiding a runoff.
Speaker 2: But then again, you.
Speaker 3: Like he's just going into a spot where there's like
you're having another competitive prime.
Speaker 1: Also right you're right now, and it's not helping your
state wide ticket. I mean if you I would, I
bet if we walked out on Congress Avenue right now
and ask people to name a statewide candidate for any
of the offices that are not named you know, taller
Ico or Crockett, people would not be able to do.
Speaker 2: We should do that, We do that on the road.
Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean, I think that there was so
much I don't know, like talk early on I think
about or like rumored talk I guess about, you know,
from these sort of luminaries of the Texas Party about
getting sort of a super ticket, getting you know, like
we really got to run this, and we got to
run seriously, and we got to put like real talent
in each of these races. And obviously there are candidate
good candidates running in all of those races, but not
the like name recognition cachet uh candidates. And I do wonder,
like sometimes if those more i mean better work the castros,
these like long slightly longer tenured leaders of the party
or leading candidates of the party them decided not to run.
I mean, do they feel like it's not winnable, Like
do they feel like this is like just throwing you know,
like they can do more as fundraisers or is sort
of surrogates and they can do like putting their own
name on it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think. I mean it's I think those
two candidates and the other people who were interested in
that race were particularly interested in it because of the
possibility of running against Ken Paxson in the general election.
On the other hand, I mean I think a lot
about tall Ico, a former teacher. You know, education has
been a big part of what he does. He made
his name in the Texas legislature. Why is he not
running for governor? And there's you know, twenty five million
reasons why he's not running for governor and polls that
would suggest that Abbott is a much much, much more
difficult candidate to face anyways, But what they're missing is
really the candidate that's willing to sort of stick their
neck out, and that could be something that they that
they feel for sure. Next question, question number six, what
would a blue way look like in twenty twenty six?
I will I will preface this by noting the last
time we had the quote unquote blue wave was again
a competitive Senate race twenty eighteen. Beto Arouric loses by
less than three percentage points to Ted Cruz. But in
the meantime, Democrats flip twelve seats in the Texas House
and gain two seats in Congress. Doesn't seem very possible, Kayla,
even if they get similar results at the top of
the ballot this year.
Speaker 5: I mean, they've only lost ground since twenty eighteen. Obviously,
next year they're hoping will resemble twenty eighteen more. To
take back the Texas House, they would have to win
fourteen seats, which just seems completely impossible and not going
to happen. But I think they are hoping that, like
Kempaxon will be the nominee and that that will make
a blue wave that translates to a statewide flip possible.
Democrats are running in every single race on the ballot,
every federal and state race, and they're hoping that that
means they can maximize their chances of flipping some seats
and also send some energy up the ballot. But I
mean again, yeah, I think it'll I think there's still
a lot of months until November, and I think it'll
depend on the economy, and I think the economy first
and foremost.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 5: I don't know that it'll be such a giant, you
know wave.
Speaker 1: And one of the main reasons for that, of course
is redistricting. Right, twenty eighteen happened at the end of
a decade. I mean, I guess we're only two years
earlier in the decade, but we, you know, had a
mid term or districting in Congress, which means, even if
we have that kind of a result, it's more likely
than not that Republicans will gain seats in Congress as
opposed to Democrats. But in the Texas House, where things
have been the most volatile in the past. You I'm
quoting yourself back to you, Kyla, but you recently wrote
that the House Democratic Campaign Committing Committee has identified five
target seats, four that Democrats tried and failed to flip
in twenty twenty four and one seat that they lost
during that time. Five is a very small number, and
you almost never hit all your target seats, so we
could really be talking about even if you see a
Beto like performance at the top, that not really changing
the dynamic in the legislature much, if at all, which
is just an interesting difference.
Speaker 4: I think one data point that would help the argument
that there is a blue wave when we do the
after action analysis whatever, is if Democrats can complicate the
narratives belatinos, because I feel like least election showed Republicans
have made great inroads and that was happening for years.
I mean, the GUP invested in South Texas and also
you saw that in some hds in the Houston area.
So it's not a surprise that the governor with eighty
seven billion dollars wants to focus on Harrison County and
keep making those in roads and get people out to vote,
like low propensity voters. So I think that's gonna be
one of the key things to look out for.
Speaker 3: I was just gonna the only thing I was gonna
add on redistricting is I do wonder also about whether,
and you know it has, redistricting has created a little
bit more awareness around all of this, right, Like I
think obviously like that primarily affects congressional seats. But I
think a lot of people don't like the idea that like, oh,
like my vote has kind of been taken away from me.
My vote feels like it doesn't matter as much. I
don't get to like pick who I want and like,
does that mobilize some people Trump is not at the
top of the ticket. There are people who are pissed
off about what Trump is doing. You know, does that
motivate some Democrats to come out and vote? But is
that enough to strategically shift things in the House.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question, and let's
use it as a transition to the next one. I mean,
al Hunter, you talked about some of the kind of
trends that happened. This to me is like the question
of Texas politics for the next decade. As I said,
the next ten years is basically was the twenty twenty
four election a blip or a sign of political reshuffling
in Texas? And I'll set that up a little bit
more right, which is that we have had we have
all gone through this cycle right many times where it's like, oh,
do Democrats have a chance And the answer has been no,
but that has sort of belied the fact that the
margins were shrinking. Right, you had Trump winning by sixteen
points in twenty sixteen, you had Biden losing by Now
I'm going to get all mixed up, but basically you
had a sixteen margin, a twelve margin, a nine margin,
like it was going down. And then in twenty twenty
four it went right back up to Trump winning by
around fourteen and beyond that. The reason that that happened
was some significant changes in some of the demographics that
Democrats had identified. Eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump
swung plus eight percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty
four and essentially almost ran even there. Trump swung plus
six percent among thirty to forty four year olds. You know,
young people moved dramatically to the right. Latinos even more so,
a fourteen percent swing. Where basically this is according to
exit polls from those two late races, Biden winning fifty
eight to forty one among Latino voters in twenty twenty,
Trump winning fifty five forty five among Latinos. Four years later, Sorry,
did I say Trump winning fifty five to forty five? Yeah?
So yeah, yeah, we got it, and then the but
there you know, the question is are those gains a
reflection of a re orientation of Texas politics that would
further entrench Republican dominance or was there something special about
twenty twenty four that caused this? And we're going to
go back to the trends we were already facing.
Speaker 2: I think a mix of both.
Speaker 4: I mean, not to cop out, yeah, but I think
you know, I was interviewing someone first story recently. They
described the Latino voter block as kind of like the
power brokers who don't even know it yet because the
population has changed so much and it's going to keep changing,
and that's why both parties are rightfully so paying so
much attention. But you bring up young voters, and I
think that is another like almost overlooked voter block, because
Trump did make like a lot of inroads across the
country with young voters, and it's curious to see how
people in Texas are focusing on them. You know, you
have the government tenant governor backing these turning point clubs
at high schools. It's not voting yet age, but you know,
you get people animated and encouraging the political process you
have a turning in general can pat and stumping at
turning point college chapters where people can vote. So I
think both those are I don't think it looks like
the GPS not seeing that for granted, and that might
kind of gets to answer about maybe it was a realignment.
But I also like scrutinized hypothesis and it's like, well,
has the environment change like back to how we started?
Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? I mean the polls would suggest that Trump
is much less popular among Latino voters and young voters,
for instance, than he was a year ago. Pupil came
out in November, fifty five percent of Latino voters. This
is nationwide, not just in Texas strongly disapproving of the
work he's doing as president. Seventy percent overall disapproving. When
you in factor in strongly and I guess less strongly.
I mean, that's that's significant and I think probably has
you know, some people in Texas a little bit worried.
Speaker 2: I think in a lot of ways like that will
be the.
Speaker 3: Story we are most watching coming out of the twenty
twenty six elections is just like, you know, does that persist?
And I think what happens in Texas on that front
will or be used as like a crystal ball on
a lot of national politics going forward.
Speaker 1: So that leads to another questions with redistricting, did Republicans
overplay their hand in South Texas? Will they gain those
seats that they you know, so proudly touted after the
redistricting in last year.
Speaker 3: Well doesn't help the President Trump part in the Quay
are I mean, I think I do think like those
you know, like you said, like you were saying about
the House seats, right, like if you target five, you
don't always get five, right. I think President Trump wanted
five seats in Texas out of redistricting. I think the
two that are you know, up for debate are those
in the valley. And I think again it's just going
to be a real bell weather for like where both
parties focus their energy in the coming years with this
weird caveat of Henry Quay are one of the most
you know, moderate Democrats who had been running under this
cloud of you know, indictment, pardoned by President Trump, who
pretty clearly, I think from a social media post, thought
he would be switching to the Republican Party after that.
He's you know, running against a Republican who previously was
a Democrat in switching the party. So it's just like
a very politically nuanced place that I think republican. I mean,
I think both parties have struggled to like approach with
like a statewide approach to be like, oh they're ours, No,
they're hours. It's like they're themselves. The value belongs to itself.
They're going to do what they're going to do, and
everyone will spend the next five years like analyzing what
it all meant, and it will just mean like the
valley is the valley.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the two candidates Kayla who are being targeted,
Henry Quaiar has already mentioned Vicente A. Gonzalez, the other
Democrat down there, both have a history of outperforming the
top of the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: These are two meekly durable Democrats that I think are
very much tailored to their districts and well known in
their districts. And so I think obviously Democrats see those
two as their best chances of defending you know, those
seats and making sure the Republicans don't get all five
seats that they jerrymandered to get this summer, did Republicans
overplay their hands. I don't know, because at least in Texas,
they seem poised to get at least those three additional seats.
Speaker 1: Which is pretty unusual. I mean, you wouldn't expect to
happen in a regular mid term election with the Republican
Party in power, right, That's not the way the trend
usually goes totally.
Speaker 5: And I think maybe on the national level, you could
say maybe it does seem like Republicans overplayed their hand
in launching this redistricting war. I don't know the exact
math at this point, but it seems like the gains
that Trump had demanded are pretty much wiped out, if
not eaten into by you know, reactive democratic jerrymandering. But
at least in Texas, it seems like they are going
to get at least those three seats and you know,
further solidify their dominance in our delegation.
Speaker 1: So question number nine, what will be the dominant issues
when I'm watching trying to watch college basketball in February
or college football in October? What are the topics that
I'm going to be so tired of hearing about because
of all the commercials and ads that are being bought
by the candidates like.
Speaker 3: Good governance, transparency, just meeting the peoples.
Speaker 2: Affordability.
Speaker 4: I think primaries maybe like usual suspects. I think Immigration
Center recorrn's going down to the border this week. That
comes to mind.
Speaker 5: The economy, Yeah, I think affordability is just going to
be the buzzword of twenty twenty six, and everyone's going
to paint themselves as sort of a populist fighter for
the working person and the middle class. And that to
me feels like what we're gonna hear a lot of okay.
Speaker 1: And Trump, right, I mean, the one of the reasons
I asked this question, I guess it's just like, is
there is there is anything going to be able to
break through just the Trump focus? Right? It feels to
me like even you know, even when we're talking about
attorney general, right, like I'm the I'm getting the mailers now,
Maga May's Middleton, right, Like, even even in races that
you might not think have much to do with the president,
they're talking about the president on both sides. Controller right exactly. Yeah, Yeah, I.
Speaker 5: Mean I think for Republicans, they want to like make
it seem like Trump is at the top of the
ticket as much as they can, you know, especially in
their primary Democrats, I don't know, I feel like I've
heard less, you know, explicit anti Trump messaging, although maybe
maybe Jasmine Crockett is just like the anti Trump fighter,
but I don't know, I feel like I've heard a
lot more focus on economic populism, and yeah, that's.
Speaker 1: Kind of thing. It's interesting that you use the word affordability,
which has of course been sort of become the buzzword
for Democrats, you know, nationally. How does that play out
in Texas, I think is a really interesting question. I mean,
Texas has you know, traditionally been in an affordable state. There's
a lot of concern about like how dozing prices and
things like that possibly changing that to the extent that
that that was a pretty high priority for Republicans this
past session. They passed some significant bills there, some with
the support of many with the support of Democrats. Property
taxes obviously play a factor in there too. I wonder
how how much of a cudgel can affordability be for
Democrats in Texas.
Speaker 4: And I think also national and foreign affairs is going
to affect how much candidates lean into or away from Trump.
Speaker 1: Now it was morning.
Speaker 4: Else was in don pr and they had a report
out of Houston about how oil companies do you get
oil out from Venezuela. It's gonna be great for them,
but not for the Texas economy. And then that effects
are revenue, and that affects mainly one of the races,
the person who collects that revenue, and then that affects
the other races who he gives that revenue to. I
don't know. So that's gonna also be interesting how these
really massive, unprecedented, you know, global actions trickle down to us.
Speaker 5: I wonder if the finer point for Democrats here in
Texas on affordability is healthcare, and if they are going
to be trying to focus in on that more and
to you know, again put a finer point to the
affordability argument.
Speaker 1: But yeah, and then I'm also you know, to go
back to the question of like, what are the commercials
I'm going to have to be watching, you know, while
while trying to just not think about work and enjoy sports.
I mean two years ago, twenty twenty four, it was
social issues, it was you know, trans athletes and those
types of things. It'll be curious to know whether that
is still on people's minds two years later.
Speaker 3: I think what I mean, I was sort of saying
this with like, you know, so many things have been
sort of addressed by President Trump in Texas and the
state of Texas in a way that like closed law
of doors to campaigning on it. One thing that has
emerged in i mean the last several months or has
like reflamed is like pretty overt Islamophobia. I think is
like a lot of candidates are really campaigning on that,
and candidates to have like nothing to do, you know,
offices that obviously have very little to do with you know,
people being Muslim is getting a lot of airtime, and
so I'm curious to see how much that like penetrates
beyond like oh we're it an activist you know, you know,
debate into like we're creating ads.
Speaker 2: About this, like this is a top issue. I think
that would be a real pivot, yeah, for sure.
Speaker 1: And also, I mean, again going back to Trump, right,
like so many of these I think Republican primaries are
going to be fighting over who actually represents the MAGA
movement and who like can actually carry that mantle. You know,
Cornyan is doing this already in the Senate race, talking
about how much she votes for him, Like, can he
convince people that get people to buy that, because you know,
there's his two opponents are going to be trying to
push against that as much as they possibly can. And
then I guess we'll see whether Trump endorses in this
race or any others. It'll be fun to watch.
Speaker 3: I think he loves the feeling of you know, they're
all waiting for me to tell her who to vote
for exactly.
Speaker 1: Okay, last question, let's play Nate Silver. What are the
what are what's the percentage chance of a Democrat actually
winning a statewide race.
Speaker 2: In Texas, any.
Speaker 1: State wide race, if if they win some random Supreme
Court seat, Yeah, it counts all.
Speaker 2: Right, any statewide seat in the scale starts at zero.
Speaker 1: It's zero to one hundred.
Speaker 5: Percent that they have a chance percent chance.
Speaker 1: Yeah like yeah, like like Nate Silver's.
Speaker 2: I'll do fourt wow whoa.
Speaker 1: I was going to say five, whoa. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Honestly, it's not computing.
Speaker 2: In my head.
Speaker 1: Zero if you want.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's zero.
Speaker 5: I think it's pretty low.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 5: It's just not competing in my head right now. I
think if they were to win a state wide. See,
it would be like by point five of a point.
Speaker 2: Like half a percent.
Speaker 3: A win is a win.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Kayla copped out? Where are you going
to play?
Speaker 4: I could give you like a three.
Speaker 3: I don't know, Okay, So no one's going against five,
no one's going over five.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, you know, if you had ask me
on Friday, what are the percent chants that you know
the US would you know, armed forces would enter Venezuela
and arrest happen. You know, like there's a lot of
interesting things that could completely shake things up. But I agree,
it's it's it's a remote chance.
Speaker 3: And I'll say, if we are wrong, we will have
whoever wins on tripcast and we will apologize formally for
doubting their electoral acumen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, great, Well, thank y'all for this. It'll be
a very exciting and interesting year, a very busy year
for the three of you, but looking forward to it.
Also thanks to Robin Chris for our excellent new theme music,
which hopefully you will hear as we play you out
and we will talk to you next week.