1 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: Do not adjust your podcast playing device. This is the 2 00:00:22,039 --> 00:00:26,800 Texas Trips Texas Tribune trip Cast, and I am Matthew Watkins. 3 00:00:26,879 --> 00:00:29,480 And you just heard some new theme music for the 4 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,719 trip Cast, A nice new jam by our producers, Robin Chris. 5 00:00:33,759 --> 00:00:34,640 What do you think, Eleanor? 6 00:00:34,759 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: I love it? New year, new music, new US. 7 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: That's right. 8 00:00:37,399 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 9 00:00:38,079 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: That voice you heard, of course, is Eleanor Klibanoff, law 10 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,640 and politics reporter for the Tribune. 11 00:00:44,079 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 2: Still same me, Still same, Eleanor. 12 00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 1: Any any New Year's resolutions? 13 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,759 Speaker 3: Do more trip Cast, have more fun with the Tripcast. 14 00:00:53,759 --> 00:00:55,600 We're gonna get weird on the trip Cast this year. 15 00:00:55,679 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, that's right. Stick around the new music, 16 00:01:00,679 --> 00:01:04,239 new US. Yeah. This week we are joined by two 17 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,959 politics reporters, Kayla Glow. Hello, Kayla. Hi, Matthew, how is 18 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,640 your holiday break? 19 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: Very long and nice? 20 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,439 Speaker 1: Excellent? And all the Hunter Serrano? Howdy, how are you doing? 21 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,400 I'm all right good, all right. Well, speaking of trying 22 00:01:18,519 --> 00:01:22,400 new things on the podcast, we're going to do a 23 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,879 start of the year podcast, ten burning Questions for Texas 24 00:01:26,879 --> 00:01:30,560 Politics in twenty twenty six. We have compiled the Crack 25 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:35,319 Politics team and I have compiled a list of questions 26 00:01:35,359 --> 00:01:37,719 from them. It goes a little bit beyond who's going 27 00:01:37,799 --> 00:01:39,319 to win and all that kind of stuff, But I 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,799 think the things that are going to define Texas politics 29 00:01:43,799 --> 00:01:46,000 for the next ten years. We're going to collect y'all's thoughts, 30 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,560 get your ideas, and see how this goes. 31 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: Are you already ten years? Did I say ten years 32 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:52,680 for the next year? 33 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: Ten items for the next ten years, but the. 34 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:59,239 Speaker 3: Impact percussions will be a decade as long as ten years. 35 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: Okay, are you al ready yes? All right? Question number 36 00:02:03,079 --> 00:02:07,920 one from the GOP Politics Group. Does the Greg Abbot 37 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:12,080 of twenty twenty four stick around in twenty twenty six? 38 00:02:12,719 --> 00:02:16,639 And what I mean by that is, as you all remember, 39 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,039 in twenty twenty four, we saw the new powerful Greg 40 00:02:20,039 --> 00:02:25,800 Abbott Austin eight House members, really becoming the dominant political figure, 41 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,719 not just his for his ability to win elections himself, 42 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:33,599 but to affect the political futures of people across the state. 43 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,039 What do we think about Greg Abbott coming into twenty 44 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,039 twenty six, the next election season, in primary season going forward? 45 00:02:43,039 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 4: Everyone looks at me, all right, I would ask, I 46 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,360 don't know if it's Governor Greg abbit of twenty twenty 47 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,719 four as much as I think the environment has changed. 48 00:02:51,759 --> 00:02:54,759 And I think back to like twenty seventeen when he 49 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,680 had what like forty fifty million dollars and first stepped 50 00:02:57,719 --> 00:03:00,759 into primaries. Everyone was like, WHOA, what is the governor doing? 51 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,360 So I think this is a new strategy. I mean 52 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:07,159 he has like unmatched fine fundraising ability and I think 53 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,080 unmatched desire in a lot of ways determination, And I 54 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,000 think we're going to keep seeing more of what we've 55 00:03:12,039 --> 00:03:15,120 seen them. A reminder of this summer during the redistricting battle, 56 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,520 where he was on a radio talk shown he said 57 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,159 this is unprecedented and what I'm paraphrasing here, but what 58 00:03:22,199 --> 00:03:25,000 Democrats are used to is no more like we are 59 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:27,879 going to use every tool we have. And I think 60 00:03:27,879 --> 00:03:29,000 that's what we're going to keep seeing. 61 00:03:29,439 --> 00:03:31,439 Speaker 5: And I think we see that in I think he's 62 00:03:31,439 --> 00:03:33,960 already said in Telegraph that he plans to put a 63 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,719 lot of resources into flipping Harris County red. He's recruited candidates. 64 00:03:37,719 --> 00:03:40,520 I think the Houston Chronicle reported this to run in 65 00:03:40,599 --> 00:03:43,479 every race on the ballot in Harris County, including in 66 00:03:44,199 --> 00:03:46,919 pretty blue seats. I think, like Jean Moose seat, he's 67 00:03:46,919 --> 00:03:49,479 recruited somebody to run against them. They might seem a 68 00:03:49,479 --> 00:03:53,680 little bit pie in the sky aspirations, but you know, 69 00:03:53,759 --> 00:03:56,240 I think he's going to focus his money and attention 70 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,199 to doing what he can there. 71 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,919 Speaker 1: I feel like the difference between twenty twenty six and 72 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:04,960 twenty twenty four is he had that issue to fight 73 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,560 for in twenty twenty four, and what really changed was 74 00:04:08,159 --> 00:04:10,960 it was a fight that was within the party right, 75 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,960 he picked aside. He threw his considerable resources toward that. 76 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,560 He's kind of talking about that same way. I think 77 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,800 he probably I don't know why he wouldn't enjoyed the 78 00:04:20,879 --> 00:04:23,319 idea of, like I am now the king, you know, 79 00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:26,040 you have to bow down to me, at least in 80 00:04:26,079 --> 00:04:28,839 the Republican Party. In that realm, he's talked about spending 81 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,759 twenty five million dollars in twenty six. He has talked 82 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:37,680 about property taxes and the possibility of a limiting property taxes, 83 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:43,680 but property taxes are not a complicated controversial topic within 84 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,120 the Republican Party, and so like I do wonder you 85 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,680 talk about the circumstances being different, is like, does he 86 00:04:49,759 --> 00:04:51,839 have that wedge? Does he have that thing that he 87 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:56,360 can do to sort of assert his will or maybe 88 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,920 the difference is just they're already all on his side 89 00:04:58,959 --> 00:04:59,319 in this. 90 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,639 Speaker 3: Case, and I think there is a difference between I 91 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,639 want to oust these specific House members who opposed vouchers 92 00:05:06,319 --> 00:05:09,360 who are Republicans with more conservative Republicans or more conservative 93 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,199 on vouchers at least, then you know, I'm going to 94 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,839 turn a traditionally blue county red. Like I think he 95 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,519 probably will have some you know, successes there, whether it's 96 00:05:18,519 --> 00:05:22,079 with judges or things like that, but you know, we 97 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,480 may actually see sort of what are the limits of 98 00:05:24,519 --> 00:05:30,360 a Republican governor's re or Republican political kingmaker's power in blue, 99 00:05:31,079 --> 00:05:35,720 you know, deeply blue urban areas in Texas. Like, you know, 100 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,319 it's easy, I think, being in Austin or being in 101 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,040 the capital to feel like there are no limits to 102 00:05:41,079 --> 00:05:43,360 what Republicans can do, and then you get out into 103 00:05:43,439 --> 00:05:45,800 like the blue urban areas and it's like, well, there 104 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,079 are pretty significant limits to what you can do. 105 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 4: One thing that I think it's interesting, though, is that 106 00:05:50,759 --> 00:05:53,160 it's not just property Texas or Harris County, mad it's 107 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:54,879 also South Texas. It feels like he has like all 108 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:56,879 these issues and he has a lot of money to 109 00:05:56,959 --> 00:06:00,839 pour into them. And one thing that's also carrious and 110 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,160 very fascinate about the governors that he doesn't have a 111 00:06:03,199 --> 00:06:05,399 legislative background. He was a jurist, and the way he 112 00:06:05,439 --> 00:06:07,160 governs it is very different, like we see that with 113 00:06:07,399 --> 00:06:10,839 emergency declarations, disaster declarations, vetos. I mean, I'm sure we'll 114 00:06:10,879 --> 00:06:14,639 get into TC later, so I don't know, I'm curious. 115 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:19,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think like the biggest test of his power, 116 00:06:19,319 --> 00:06:24,240 particularly within the Republican Party, will perhaps be the comptrollers race. 117 00:06:24,519 --> 00:06:29,759 You know, everyone knows the background here. He appointed Kelly 118 00:06:29,759 --> 00:06:34,519 Hancock as the acting comptroller. He immediately endorsed him. That 119 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,439 did not stop to other, you know, fairly well known 120 00:06:38,519 --> 00:06:41,439 in Texas politics candidates from getting the race. Don Huffines, 121 00:06:41,439 --> 00:06:44,399 who had previously run against him as governor, a very 122 00:06:44,439 --> 00:06:48,920 conservative person, someone who I think could possibly be perceived 123 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,560 as a bit of a headache for Abbott were he 124 00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:54,800 to be elected into office. Christie Krattick, someone who has 125 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,439 in the past been talked about as a possible future 126 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,639 governor of Texas. You know, a railroad commissioner, daughter of 127 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:08,720 the former House speaker. He clearly wants Hancock to win. 128 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,319 How much is he willing to really fight for him. 129 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,519 And how much will it mean to the primary voters 130 00:07:16,879 --> 00:07:19,839 that Hancock has Abbot fighting for him. I think will 131 00:07:19,879 --> 00:07:22,759 be a really interesting test. That's a little bit different 132 00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:28,519 than the voucher test because it's not necessarily pitting the 133 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,959 activist wing of the party against the moderate wing of 134 00:07:31,959 --> 00:07:34,399 the party, with Abbot taking the activist wing side. 135 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: Right. 136 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:37,399 Speaker 3: Sorry, and I know you're covering the comptrollers, right, but 137 00:07:37,439 --> 00:07:40,920 if anything, it's taking sort of the you know, opposing 138 00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:42,720 the activists, right. I mean, King Hancock was a vote 139 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,360 against Ken Paxton and the impeachment. That's sort of I 140 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:48,360 feel like we have not heard as much about that 141 00:07:48,399 --> 00:07:50,040 as I sort of expected to yet, but it is 142 00:07:50,079 --> 00:07:50,759 sort of an issue. 143 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 2: I mean, Alejandro, Yeah, I. 144 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,439 Speaker 4: Mean I think we will get a glimpse of an answer, 145 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:57,800 not a definitive answer, but next week when the next 146 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,720 filings campaign finance for are submitted to the state, and 147 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:03,800 we'll see like how much of the candidates hauling, how 148 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:06,000 much are people spending, and how much is sort of 149 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,759 like the governor's apparatus trying to help Hancock because the 150 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:14,360 other two candidates are prolific fundraised, I mean, Christocratic is 151 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,680 mister half Fines has self funding his campaign and spent 152 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:19,199 a lot to try to unseat the governor. 153 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,879 Speaker 1: So this leads to my next question, which is in 154 00:08:24,959 --> 00:08:27,199 the ten years that I have worked at the Tribune, 155 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,879 coming up on eleven years, actually the story of Republican 156 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,720 politics in the state has been the establishment versus the 157 00:08:33,759 --> 00:08:37,960 insurgent wing. Every election we sort of look at the 158 00:08:38,039 --> 00:08:41,480 results to see how did each side fare. And the 159 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,039 question I have is what is the establishment in twenty 160 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,600 twenty six? Is there an establishment in twenty twenty six, 161 00:08:47,639 --> 00:08:50,399 and if so, who represents the establishment? 162 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 3: I mean, this is I think also a question in 163 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,840 some ways is like royaling national Republican politics as well. 164 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,399 I mean, just like the sort of outsider we're not 165 00:09:00,519 --> 00:09:03,759 the swamp, we're not part of you know, where the 166 00:09:03,799 --> 00:09:07,639 outsider voices are now have so much power and are 167 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,799 so central I think in some ways to the party 168 00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:12,879 apparatus that they have become the establishment in some ways, 169 00:09:13,919 --> 00:09:15,919 which makes it hard for them sort of. They're in 170 00:09:15,919 --> 00:09:19,000 a tricky position to try to be governing as outsiders 171 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,440 and truth tellers when it's like, well, you guys just 172 00:09:21,639 --> 00:09:24,840 have if not a majority, like a real le powerful 173 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,080 part of the party, but yeah, I mean I think 174 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,039 I don't know. I mean, what are you when you 175 00:09:32,039 --> 00:09:37,000 think about where the Republican Party is going? Who who 176 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,639 is now the activist wing and who is the establishment wing? 177 00:09:40,399 --> 00:09:43,039 Speaker 1: Or is that even how we should like a relevant. 178 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:43,159 Speaker 2: Framing, right? 179 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, it's hard to see where that distinction even 180 00:09:48,399 --> 00:09:51,679 lies anymore. Looking back at the legislative session, I mean, 181 00:09:54,159 --> 00:09:55,759 I think the activist wing got a lot of what 182 00:09:55,759 --> 00:09:58,600 they wanted. They like, got to carry a lot of 183 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,200 big priorities through that tech his house, which I think 184 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:06,000 normally we might see as a place where people might 185 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,279 you know, stand up to that wing of the party. 186 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,000 And it seems like people are in the Republican Party 187 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,960 are very much in line and they're very much behind 188 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:19,799 from behind Abbott as he's wielding this power. So yeah, 189 00:10:19,799 --> 00:10:22,039 I don't I don't know that there I don't see 190 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:22,919 that much of a distinction. 191 00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: I mean, it feels to me like there has always 192 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,639 been it is always It has been an effect relatively 193 00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:34,759 effective strategy, particularly in legislative races in other places, to 194 00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:40,080 pin an incumbent or an opponent really as a rhino right, 195 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:46,519 and as the Republican power structure has moved to the 196 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:49,720 right from say the days of Joe Strauss to the 197 00:10:49,799 --> 00:10:57,320 days of Dustin Burrows. How can can that rhino label 198 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,559 continue to work? Is that something you can just kind 199 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,159 of keep doing over and over again, or has this 200 00:11:03,519 --> 00:11:07,639 eventually you know, the people who are holding power and 201 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,080 holding an influence in the legislature, have they moved enough 202 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,840 to the right to keep the you know what used 203 00:11:14,879 --> 00:11:17,320 to be called the insurgent wing of the party party happy. 204 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:19,639 I mean, I think that'll be an interesting thing to 205 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:21,120 watch in some of these races. 206 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:22,879 Speaker 3: And I think we saw a little bit of that, 207 00:11:22,919 --> 00:11:25,120 Like I mean in the speaker's race that started twenty 208 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,519 twenty five, where it was like almost laughable, And I 209 00:11:28,519 --> 00:11:31,080 think we all talked, probably to members and Republicans who 210 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,159 felt like, yeah, it's a little bit foolish to be saying, 211 00:11:33,159 --> 00:11:38,240 like Dustin Burrows this like lefty, you know, rhino, who's 212 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:39,879 can you believe we're going to put him in. 213 00:11:39,919 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 2: Charge of the party. It's like, that's almost laughable. 214 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,799 Speaker 3: It still was pretty effective, not effective enough to win him, 215 00:11:46,919 --> 00:11:49,200 you know, or to cost him the speakership, But like, 216 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,720 I don't know that anyone is going to be retiring 217 00:11:51,759 --> 00:11:56,039 that as a way to describe someone, It just maybe 218 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,279 will become less and less like connected to reality. 219 00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:01,759 Speaker 5: And I think the issue maybe we might see that 220 00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:05,080 come up on is property taxes and maybe this push 221 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:09,240 from the real right wing of you know, got to 222 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,519 get rid of them entirely, and the reality just being like, 223 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,600 that's really hard to do and what is the actual 224 00:12:15,639 --> 00:12:18,399 proposal to do that. So I could see it being 225 00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:21,360 wielded as you know, a cudgel in that way of 226 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,759 insurgent like true activists versus the establishment. But I think 227 00:12:25,759 --> 00:12:28,320 that will run into the real like policy realities of 228 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:29,399 how to go about doing that. 229 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 4: I think, well, it's gonna be curious to see the 230 00:12:32,639 --> 00:12:35,039 role immigration plays in a lot of these races, and 231 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:39,000 especially with legal border crossing so low. I mean last 232 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,879 primary I remember like this, like races that were dominated 233 00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:46,600 about with messaging about border security, but they're really about vouchers, 234 00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:49,799 whereas like now, with crossing so low and immigration enforcement 235 00:12:49,919 --> 00:12:53,799 so increased, I wonder if what role that's going to 236 00:12:53,799 --> 00:12:55,720 play and if it has an impact, if that's going 237 00:12:55,759 --> 00:12:58,080 to lead to changes you know, next cycle. 238 00:12:58,440 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 3: And I think you can say that about a lot 239 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,080 of issue with President Trump in office now, it's like 240 00:13:02,399 --> 00:13:05,559 a lot of the big things that Republicans were like, 241 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,440 you know, Texas needs to be the leader on this. 242 00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:10,799 The federal government isn't taking control of this are sort of, 243 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,120 at least temporarily kind of non issues. 244 00:13:13,159 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 1: You know. 245 00:13:13,399 --> 00:13:16,159 Speaker 3: I think about a lot of the social issues President 246 00:13:16,159 --> 00:13:19,039 Trump has taken, you know, very decisive action, and now 247 00:13:19,399 --> 00:13:21,919 you're sort of like, well, what is there to rail about? 248 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: All right? Speaking of issues, last question in the GOP 249 00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:32,200 primary category, which is will Ken Paxton's personal issues matter 250 00:13:32,639 --> 00:13:34,440 to GOP primary voters? 251 00:13:34,759 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 2: No, thank you, they haven't yet. 252 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 1: Next, they have not so far. It is a different 253 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,639 here's the case for it. I don't necessarily believe this case, 254 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,120 but I'm going to make this build the straw man 255 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,759 so you can mow it over, which is basically the 256 00:13:50,759 --> 00:13:54,399 attorney general's race. While it matt office. While it matters 257 00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:57,320 very much to us, particularly Eleanor. 258 00:13:58,039 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 2: I don't like where this is going. 259 00:13:59,279 --> 00:14:00,799 Speaker 1: There are a lot of PEOP people who don't even 260 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:02,879 know who the Attorney General of Texas is. 261 00:14:03,159 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 2: Not after I cover this race. 262 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:14,039 Speaker 1: Many people know who their US senators are. Much more 263 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:19,039 money gets pumped into those races, and Kim Paxton is 264 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:23,159 no longer the incumbent and that might cause for a 265 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:27,240 different type of evaluation of him in this three person 266 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,320 race where you have, you know, whether he's the establishment 267 00:14:31,399 --> 00:14:34,519 anymore or not, the person painted as the establishment candidate, 268 00:14:34,559 --> 00:14:38,559 John Cornyn, and you have another person trying to take 269 00:14:38,639 --> 00:14:40,879 up the maga mantle, trying to take up the anti 270 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:46,039 establishment mantle, who does not have the baggage that Keim 271 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,600 Paxton does. So you have a new office and you 272 00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:53,440 also have a different set of choices for voters. Does 273 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,440 that change the equation at all? The answer is no, 274 00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:58,240 and we'll move on. 275 00:14:58,519 --> 00:15:01,279 Speaker 2: No, I think ultimately, like I don't know that that is. 276 00:15:01,679 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 3: Let me say this, Are there GOP primary voters who 277 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,000 absolutely care about this and you know, maybe even like 278 00:15:08,759 --> 00:15:12,200 Ken Paxton's you know, style and politics, but are not 279 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,120 going to vote for him because of his issues? 280 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,039 Speaker 2: Yes? Is that enough to sway the election? 281 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,679 Speaker 3: It might be enough to force a runoff, like you know, 282 00:15:20,759 --> 00:15:25,799 more people swinging towards Wesley Hunt or you know, but 283 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,159 I'm skeptical that it is enough in the end to 284 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:29,080 cost him the election. 285 00:15:29,879 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 2: I agree. 286 00:15:31,279 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: Okay, it's funny how we talk about Paxston like as 287 00:15:35,679 --> 00:15:37,000 the incumbent in this race. 288 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,679 Speaker 2: Even though he is not, in fact, like it's his 289 00:15:38,799 --> 00:15:41,120 race to lose. It's like, you know, well, I'd say. 290 00:15:41,159 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 5: The other thing is also like he has obviously had 291 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,080 all this legal baggage and he has emerged, you know, 292 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,080 Victoria's charges have been dropped, he hasn't been impeached, you know, 293 00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:54,440 And I think that helps him paint himself as a 294 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:58,120 fighter who's maligned by the establishment in the way of 295 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,080 Donald Trump, who is, of course, are still very popular 296 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:02,080 with primary voters. 297 00:16:03,039 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think for some people it'll 298 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:07,039 help him. 299 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,279 Speaker 3: A complete hypothetical, would John Corny be helped if he 300 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:14,440 had more issues and was being aligned by the Democratic established, he. 301 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: Should have gotten you know, the Biden Justice Department to 302 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:17,799 indict him. 303 00:16:18,919 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: His kingdom for an indictment. 304 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: That's right, Okay, let's move on to the Democrats. Now, Democrats, 305 00:16:24,919 --> 00:16:28,720 should they play nice or sharpen their knives? This is 306 00:16:29,279 --> 00:16:34,279 particularly a Tall Rico versus Crockett framing, right, Tall Rico, 307 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,480 every grandma's favorite candidate. 308 00:16:37,679 --> 00:16:37,759 Speaker 5: The. 309 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: Sweet, nice young man who used to be a teacher. Crockett, 310 00:16:42,759 --> 00:16:47,679 who has become famous for her willingness to very strongly 311 00:16:47,799 --> 00:16:53,000 go after Republican leaders. We could frame this question either way. 312 00:16:53,039 --> 00:16:55,320 Should they play nice with each other in order to 313 00:16:55,519 --> 00:16:59,799 ensure a strengthened candidate moving forward, or should they take 314 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:04,880 the more conciliatory approach toward maybe moderate voters in order 315 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,599 to be in a stronger position. Where do we think 316 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,599 the mind is of the Democratic electorate right now? Calee, 317 00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:12,480 I'm going to start with you. 318 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 5: I think the common wisdom is that Democratic primary voters 319 00:17:16,759 --> 00:17:20,039 want a fighter and someone who will stand up to 320 00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:23,880 Republicans and show that they're not impotent and just you know, 321 00:17:24,279 --> 00:17:26,839 going to write an angrily worded letter and call it 322 00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:30,759 at that. I think Jasmine Crockett pretty easily fits into that, 323 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,240 you know, mold of what people seem to want. At 324 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,160 the same time, I think we've heard Talerigo start rolling 325 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,799 out some messaging to try to combat that characterization of 326 00:17:40,839 --> 00:17:43,920 her and this sort of automatic categorization of him as 327 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:50,319 some like passive preacher piece hippie guy. And he's been 328 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,200 saying like he has taken on Republicans as well, and 329 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,559 he's also won He's passed legislation despite being in the minority. 330 00:17:58,559 --> 00:18:00,200 So I don't know actually that it's such a to 331 00:18:00,519 --> 00:18:03,359 like fighter versus not fighter. 332 00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 2: Choice, or at least that's what he's trying to make 333 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,440 it not seem like one as much. 334 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:13,839 Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't know if you'll be able to 335 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,559 change that perception of him as this, you know, loving guy. 336 00:18:17,559 --> 00:18:20,480 And I also think it's maybe dangerous for him to 337 00:18:20,519 --> 00:18:23,319 try to take out the knives against Jasmin Crockett. He 338 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,480 came out very quickly being like, we have to respect 339 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,279 and love everyone in this race, and that includes Jasmin Crockett. 340 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:30,799 I think if he walked back from that now, it 341 00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:33,720 would be kind of striking, and it also would be 342 00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:39,240 him attacking this like fairly well liked person among Democratic 343 00:18:39,279 --> 00:18:40,839 primary voters. 344 00:18:41,599 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: Listeners of the podcast will have had in their feed 345 00:18:46,599 --> 00:18:49,720 a couple of weeks ago, while we were enjoying our holiday, 346 00:18:50,519 --> 00:18:54,960 my interview with tell Rico at the trip Fest. And 347 00:18:55,039 --> 00:18:57,880 to me, what was what they did not see in 348 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,559 that feed and what to me is the most memorable 349 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,039 part of that interview was we did that interview in 350 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,960 Saint David's Church, which is a room of about like 351 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:11,440 three hundred and fifty people, and you walk the to 352 00:19:11,599 --> 00:19:13,960 appear on stage, as you know, Eleanor because you also 353 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,880 did this, you walk up a stairwell into the aisle 354 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,599 of the church and you have to walk down the 355 00:19:19,759 --> 00:19:22,640 entire aisle almost like you're getting married to get up 356 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,880 to the stage. And actually tell Rico made that joke. 357 00:19:26,279 --> 00:19:32,279 But something that I never have never experienced is walking 358 00:19:32,319 --> 00:19:37,319 into a room with someone that people are as excited 359 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,720 to see as James Tellerico. As soon as like our 360 00:19:39,799 --> 00:19:41,960 heads kind of popped up, there was this like sort 361 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:46,920 of like collective gasp and like cheer from the people 362 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:48,799 in the room that was there, and I was like, wow, 363 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:53,319 this is like you I know, yeah, of course, of 364 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,880 course I did like try to have like no, they're 365 00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:00,559 not doing this for you, like here you go, but 366 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,960 like that really stuck with me, and you know, to 367 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:07,440 be completely honest, immediately after that was an interview with 368 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,480 Colin Allread that I also did, and he did not 369 00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:12,160 generate that kind of reaction, and that really stuck with me. 370 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:16,279 Alread obviously dropped out of the race, but there is 371 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,400 that excitement around Tallerrico. The thing is is that you know, 372 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,839 Jasmine Crockett didn't make it to trip Fest due to 373 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,319 what was going on in Congress at the time. Would 374 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,599 she have generated that same reaction? Probably yes, And I 375 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,920 have actually been I make the joke about tall Rico 376 00:20:30,039 --> 00:20:35,599 being the grandma favorite. But like another speaking engagement I 377 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,519 had recently was with a group in Austin called Women Vote, 378 00:20:38,799 --> 00:20:40,440 and it was a head of trip Fest and they 379 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,160 were talking about the different people who were coming to Tripfest, 380 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,759 and it was a group of you know, it was 381 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,920 as jd Vance would call the elderly hippies, right, the 382 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:54,599 older you know, Democratic leaning women, And the applause for 383 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,759 Jasmine Crockett was just as palpable. And it is a 384 00:20:57,799 --> 00:21:01,359 pretty amazing sort of confluent. And so that that Texas 385 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,680 has two of these people and they are in the 386 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:08,279 same race, which leads me to my next question. Will 387 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:13,400 Democrats regret not spreading out that talent more? Is this 388 00:21:14,319 --> 00:21:17,039 bad for the Democrats to have both of them on 389 00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:19,960 the ballot for the same race when they're trying to 390 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,480 make gains up and down the ballot. 391 00:21:23,079 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 5: I mean Democrats started with, like, I don't know, five 392 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,960 pretty big names that were maybe gonna they wanted to 393 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,880 form this slate to run in all these statewide offices 394 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,039 to do exactly that and spread their talent, and now 395 00:21:36,079 --> 00:21:37,640 it's just the two of them, like they've kind of 396 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,000 fallen off. I think Colin all Read dropping down to 397 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,200 his congressional race obviously helps the party in terms of 398 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:44,200 avoiding a runoff. 399 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,039 Speaker 2: But then again, you. 400 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,279 Speaker 3: Like he's just going into a spot where there's like 401 00:21:48,799 --> 00:21:50,279 you're having another competitive prime. 402 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,839 Speaker 1: Also right you're right now, and it's not helping your 403 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,519 state wide ticket. I mean if you I would, I 404 00:21:56,519 --> 00:21:58,839 bet if we walked out on Congress Avenue right now 405 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,319 and ask people to name a statewide candidate for any 406 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,759 of the offices that are not named you know, taller 407 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,839 Ico or Crockett, people would not be able to do. 408 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,799 Speaker 2: We should do that, We do that on the road. 409 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean, I think that there was so 410 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,960 much I don't know, like talk early on I think 411 00:22:19,079 --> 00:22:21,640 about or like rumored talk I guess about, you know, 412 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,920 from these sort of luminaries of the Texas Party about 413 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,039 getting sort of a super ticket, getting you know, like 414 00:22:27,799 --> 00:22:29,640 we really got to run this, and we got to 415 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,680 run seriously, and we got to put like real talent 416 00:22:31,839 --> 00:22:34,519 in each of these races. And obviously there are candidate 417 00:22:34,519 --> 00:22:36,519 good candidates running in all of those races, but not 418 00:22:36,599 --> 00:22:41,279 the like name recognition cachet uh candidates. And I do wonder, 419 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,599 like sometimes if those more i mean better work the castros, 420 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,480 these like long slightly longer tenured leaders of the party 421 00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:53,359 or leading candidates of the party them decided not to run. 422 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,359 I mean, do they feel like it's not winnable, Like 423 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,519 do they feel like this is like just throwing you know, 424 00:22:58,559 --> 00:23:01,000 like they can do more as fundraisers or is sort 425 00:23:01,039 --> 00:23:03,079 of surrogates and they can do like putting their own 426 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:03,720 name on it. 427 00:23:04,599 --> 00:23:08,039 Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think. I mean it's I think those 428 00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:11,079 two candidates and the other people who were interested in 429 00:23:11,079 --> 00:23:13,799 that race were particularly interested in it because of the 430 00:23:13,839 --> 00:23:16,759 possibility of running against Ken Paxson in the general election. 431 00:23:17,759 --> 00:23:19,680 On the other hand, I mean I think a lot 432 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,960 about tall Ico, a former teacher. You know, education has 433 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,000 been a big part of what he does. He made 434 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,079 his name in the Texas legislature. Why is he not 435 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,440 running for governor? And there's you know, twenty five million 436 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,119 reasons why he's not running for governor and polls that 437 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,559 would suggest that Abbott is a much much, much more 438 00:23:38,559 --> 00:23:44,279 difficult candidate to face anyways, But what they're missing is 439 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,559 really the candidate that's willing to sort of stick their 440 00:23:47,599 --> 00:23:51,720 neck out, and that could be something that they that 441 00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:58,160 they feel for sure. Next question, question number six, what 442 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,519 would a blue way look like in twenty twenty six? 443 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,640 I will I will preface this by noting the last 444 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,480 time we had the quote unquote blue wave was again 445 00:24:09,519 --> 00:24:14,599 a competitive Senate race twenty eighteen. Beto Arouric loses by 446 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,680 less than three percentage points to Ted Cruz. But in 447 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,240 the meantime, Democrats flip twelve seats in the Texas House 448 00:24:21,519 --> 00:24:27,680 and gain two seats in Congress. Doesn't seem very possible, Kayla, 449 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,880 even if they get similar results at the top of 450 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:32,720 the ballot this year. 451 00:24:33,039 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 5: I mean, they've only lost ground since twenty eighteen. Obviously, 452 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,599 next year they're hoping will resemble twenty eighteen more. To 453 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,640 take back the Texas House, they would have to win 454 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:46,319 fourteen seats, which just seems completely impossible and not going 455 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:50,079 to happen. But I think they are hoping that, like 456 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,759 Kempaxon will be the nominee and that that will make 457 00:24:52,839 --> 00:24:56,319 a blue wave that translates to a statewide flip possible. 458 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,680 Democrats are running in every single race on the ballot, 459 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,240 every federal and state race, and they're hoping that that 460 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,160 means they can maximize their chances of flipping some seats 461 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:12,279 and also send some energy up the ballot. But I 462 00:25:12,279 --> 00:25:14,839 mean again, yeah, I think it'll I think there's still 463 00:25:14,839 --> 00:25:17,480 a lot of months until November, and I think it'll 464 00:25:17,519 --> 00:25:21,519 depend on the economy, and I think the economy first 465 00:25:21,519 --> 00:25:22,079 and foremost. 466 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know. 467 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 5: I don't know that it'll be such a giant, you 468 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,240 know wave. 469 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,599 Speaker 1: And one of the main reasons for that, of course 470 00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:36,640 is redistricting. Right, twenty eighteen happened at the end of 471 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,799 a decade. I mean, I guess we're only two years 472 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,319 earlier in the decade, but we, you know, had a 473 00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:45,160 mid term or districting in Congress, which means, even if 474 00:25:45,559 --> 00:25:47,759 we have that kind of a result, it's more likely 475 00:25:47,799 --> 00:25:51,400 than not that Republicans will gain seats in Congress as 476 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,960 opposed to Democrats. But in the Texas House, where things 477 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,799 have been the most volatile in the past. You I'm 478 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,559 quoting yourself back to you, Kyla, but you recently wrote 479 00:26:02,599 --> 00:26:06,519 that the House Democratic Campaign Committing Committee has identified five 480 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,039 target seats, four that Democrats tried and failed to flip 481 00:26:11,039 --> 00:26:15,160 in twenty twenty four and one seat that they lost 482 00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:18,519 during that time. Five is a very small number, and 483 00:26:18,559 --> 00:26:22,160 you almost never hit all your target seats, so we 484 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,440 could really be talking about even if you see a 485 00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:27,799 Beto like performance at the top, that not really changing 486 00:26:27,839 --> 00:26:33,119 the dynamic in the legislature much, if at all, which 487 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:34,440 is just an interesting difference. 488 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 4: I think one data point that would help the argument 489 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,160 that there is a blue wave when we do the 490 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:44,599 after action analysis whatever, is if Democrats can complicate the 491 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:49,000 narratives belatinos, because I feel like least election showed Republicans 492 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:52,119 have made great inroads and that was happening for years. 493 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,599 I mean, the GUP invested in South Texas and also 494 00:26:54,599 --> 00:26:56,559 you saw that in some hds in the Houston area. 495 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,079 So it's not a surprise that the governor with eighty 496 00:26:59,079 --> 00:27:01,599 seven billion dollars wants to focus on Harrison County and 497 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,680 keep making those in roads and get people out to vote, 498 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,599 like low propensity voters. So I think that's gonna be 499 00:27:06,799 --> 00:27:08,160 one of the key things to look out for. 500 00:27:09,839 --> 00:27:11,039 Speaker 3: I was just gonna the only thing I was gonna 501 00:27:11,039 --> 00:27:13,559 add on redistricting is I do wonder also about whether, 502 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,000 and you know it has, redistricting has created a little 503 00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:20,240 bit more awareness around all of this, right, Like I 504 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,279 think obviously like that primarily affects congressional seats. But I 505 00:27:24,319 --> 00:27:27,319 think a lot of people don't like the idea that like, oh, 506 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,000 like my vote has kind of been taken away from me. 507 00:27:29,039 --> 00:27:30,599 My vote feels like it doesn't matter as much. I 508 00:27:30,599 --> 00:27:32,440 don't get to like pick who I want and like, 509 00:27:32,559 --> 00:27:35,039 does that mobilize some people Trump is not at the 510 00:27:35,039 --> 00:27:38,359 top of the ticket. There are people who are pissed 511 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,359 off about what Trump is doing. You know, does that 512 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,000 motivate some Democrats to come out and vote? But is 513 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,160 that enough to strategically shift things in the House. 514 00:27:46,839 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 2: I don't know. 515 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,759 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question, and let's 516 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,200 use it as a transition to the next one. I mean, 517 00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:57,599 al Hunter, you talked about some of the kind of 518 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,599 trends that happened. This to me is like the question 519 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,039 of Texas politics for the next decade. As I said, 520 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,960 the next ten years is basically was the twenty twenty 521 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,480 four election a blip or a sign of political reshuffling 522 00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:13,559 in Texas? And I'll set that up a little bit 523 00:28:13,559 --> 00:28:16,279 more right, which is that we have had we have 524 00:28:16,319 --> 00:28:19,359 all gone through this cycle right many times where it's like, oh, 525 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,880 do Democrats have a chance And the answer has been no, 526 00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:26,720 but that has sort of belied the fact that the 527 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,880 margins were shrinking. Right, you had Trump winning by sixteen 528 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:38,519 points in twenty sixteen, you had Biden losing by Now 529 00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:40,160 I'm going to get all mixed up, but basically you 530 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,759 had a sixteen margin, a twelve margin, a nine margin, 531 00:28:43,839 --> 00:28:46,200 like it was going down. And then in twenty twenty 532 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,400 four it went right back up to Trump winning by 533 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,359 around fourteen and beyond that. The reason that that happened 534 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,400 was some significant changes in some of the demographics that 535 00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:00,559 Democrats had identified. Eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump 536 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,440 swung plus eight percent from twenty twenty to twenty twenty 537 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:12,400 four and essentially almost ran even there. Trump swung plus 538 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,200 six percent among thirty to forty four year olds. You know, 539 00:29:15,359 --> 00:29:21,079 young people moved dramatically to the right. Latinos even more so, 540 00:29:21,279 --> 00:29:24,640 a fourteen percent swing. Where basically this is according to 541 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:29,319 exit polls from those two late races, Biden winning fifty 542 00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:32,039 eight to forty one among Latino voters in twenty twenty, 543 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:38,960 Trump winning fifty five forty five among Latinos. Four years later, Sorry, 544 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,240 did I say Trump winning fifty five to forty five? Yeah? 545 00:29:41,279 --> 00:29:47,480 So yeah, yeah, we got it, and then the but 546 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:52,480 there you know, the question is are those gains a 547 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:58,519 reflection of a re orientation of Texas politics that would 548 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,799 further entrench Republican dominance or was there something special about 549 00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:05,039 twenty twenty four that caused this? And we're going to 550 00:30:05,079 --> 00:30:06,920 go back to the trends we were already facing. 551 00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:09,039 Speaker 2: I think a mix of both. 552 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,079 Speaker 4: I mean, not to cop out, yeah, but I think 553 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,440 you know, I was interviewing someone first story recently. They 554 00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:17,039 described the Latino voter block as kind of like the 555 00:30:17,079 --> 00:30:19,200 power brokers who don't even know it yet because the 556 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,440 population has changed so much and it's going to keep changing, 557 00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:24,240 and that's why both parties are rightfully so paying so 558 00:30:24,319 --> 00:30:26,200 much attention. But you bring up young voters, and I 559 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,920 think that is another like almost overlooked voter block, because 560 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,640 Trump did make like a lot of inroads across the 561 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,599 country with young voters, and it's curious to see how 562 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,279 people in Texas are focusing on them. You know, you 563 00:30:38,279 --> 00:30:41,599 have the government tenant governor backing these turning point clubs 564 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,319 at high schools. It's not voting yet age, but you know, 565 00:30:44,519 --> 00:30:47,960 you get people animated and encouraging the political process you 566 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,799 have a turning in general can pat and stumping at 567 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,680 turning point college chapters where people can vote. So I 568 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,240 think both those are I don't think it looks like 569 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,039 the GPS not seeing that for granted, and that might 570 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,640 kind of gets to answer about maybe it was a realignment. 571 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,799 But I also like scrutinized hypothesis and it's like, well, 572 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,240 has the environment change like back to how we started? 573 00:31:09,559 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? I mean the polls would suggest that Trump 574 00:31:14,039 --> 00:31:18,279 is much less popular among Latino voters and young voters, 575 00:31:18,279 --> 00:31:22,119 for instance, than he was a year ago. Pupil came 576 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,759 out in November, fifty five percent of Latino voters. This 577 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,759 is nationwide, not just in Texas strongly disapproving of the 578 00:31:28,759 --> 00:31:32,200 work he's doing as president. Seventy percent overall disapproving. When 579 00:31:32,279 --> 00:31:35,839 you in factor in strongly and I guess less strongly. 580 00:31:37,519 --> 00:31:40,480 I mean, that's that's significant and I think probably has 581 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,559 you know, some people in Texas a little bit worried. 582 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:45,559 Speaker 2: I think in a lot of ways like that will 583 00:31:45,559 --> 00:31:45,839 be the. 584 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 3: Story we are most watching coming out of the twenty 585 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:55,640 twenty six elections is just like, you know, does that persist? 586 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,839 And I think what happens in Texas on that front 587 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,559 will or be used as like a crystal ball on 588 00:32:01,599 --> 00:32:03,720 a lot of national politics going forward. 589 00:32:04,759 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 1: So that leads to another questions with redistricting, did Republicans 590 00:32:08,519 --> 00:32:12,480 overplay their hand in South Texas? Will they gain those 591 00:32:12,519 --> 00:32:17,119 seats that they you know, so proudly touted after the 592 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,400 redistricting in last year. 593 00:32:22,319 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 3: Well doesn't help the President Trump part in the Quay 594 00:32:25,319 --> 00:32:30,519 are I mean, I think I do think like those 595 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,559 you know, like you said, like you were saying about 596 00:32:32,559 --> 00:32:35,279 the House seats, right, like if you target five, you 597 00:32:35,319 --> 00:32:39,000 don't always get five, right. I think President Trump wanted 598 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,599 five seats in Texas out of redistricting. I think the 599 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,319 two that are you know, up for debate are those 600 00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:47,759 in the valley. And I think again it's just going 601 00:32:47,799 --> 00:32:51,599 to be a real bell weather for like where both 602 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,359 parties focus their energy in the coming years with this 603 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,720 weird caveat of Henry Quay are one of the most 604 00:32:58,839 --> 00:33:01,920 you know, moderate Democrats who had been running under this 605 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:07,440 cloud of you know, indictment, pardoned by President Trump, who 606 00:33:07,799 --> 00:33:09,839 pretty clearly, I think from a social media post, thought 607 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,079 he would be switching to the Republican Party after that. 608 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:17,440 He's you know, running against a Republican who previously was 609 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,200 a Democrat in switching the party. So it's just like 610 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:25,160 a very politically nuanced place that I think republican. I mean, 611 00:33:25,279 --> 00:33:29,599 I think both parties have struggled to like approach with 612 00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,400 like a statewide approach to be like, oh they're ours, No, 613 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,400 they're hours. It's like they're themselves. The value belongs to itself. 614 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,240 They're going to do what they're going to do, and 615 00:33:38,359 --> 00:33:41,279 everyone will spend the next five years like analyzing what 616 00:33:41,319 --> 00:33:43,599 it all meant, and it will just mean like the 617 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:44,519 valley is the valley. 618 00:33:45,279 --> 00:33:48,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the two candidates Kayla who are being targeted, 619 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:53,759 Henry Quaiar has already mentioned Vicente A. Gonzalez, the other 620 00:33:53,799 --> 00:33:57,000 Democrat down there, both have a history of outperforming the 621 00:33:57,039 --> 00:33:57,799 top of the ticket. 622 00:33:58,359 --> 00:33:58,599 Speaker 2: Yeah. 623 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 5: These are two meekly durable Democrats that I think are 624 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,640 very much tailored to their districts and well known in 625 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:10,280 their districts. And so I think obviously Democrats see those 626 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,800 two as their best chances of defending you know, those 627 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,679 seats and making sure the Republicans don't get all five 628 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,679 seats that they jerrymandered to get this summer, did Republicans 629 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,360 overplay their hands. I don't know, because at least in Texas, 630 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,039 they seem poised to get at least those three additional seats. 631 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,960 Speaker 1: Which is pretty unusual. I mean, you wouldn't expect to 632 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:35,880 happen in a regular mid term election with the Republican 633 00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,199 Party in power, right, That's not the way the trend 634 00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,239 usually goes totally. 635 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 5: And I think maybe on the national level, you could 636 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,320 say maybe it does seem like Republicans overplayed their hand 637 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,239 in launching this redistricting war. I don't know the exact 638 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,719 math at this point, but it seems like the gains 639 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,239 that Trump had demanded are pretty much wiped out, if 640 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:59,280 not eaten into by you know, reactive democratic jerrymandering. But 641 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,639 at least in Texas, it seems like they are going 642 00:35:01,679 --> 00:35:04,000 to get at least those three seats and you know, 643 00:35:04,079 --> 00:35:06,679 further solidify their dominance in our delegation. 644 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:13,199 Speaker 1: So question number nine, what will be the dominant issues 645 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,840 when I'm watching trying to watch college basketball in February 646 00:35:17,039 --> 00:35:22,039 or college football in October? What are the topics that 647 00:35:22,039 --> 00:35:24,519 I'm going to be so tired of hearing about because 648 00:35:24,559 --> 00:35:26,639 of all the commercials and ads that are being bought 649 00:35:26,639 --> 00:35:28,159 by the candidates like. 650 00:35:28,199 --> 00:35:33,159 Speaker 3: Good governance, transparency, just meeting the peoples. 651 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 2: Affordability. 652 00:35:36,599 --> 00:35:40,400 Speaker 4: I think primaries maybe like usual suspects. I think Immigration 653 00:35:41,199 --> 00:35:44,960 Center recorrn's going down to the border this week. That 654 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:45,639 comes to mind. 655 00:35:45,679 --> 00:35:49,880 Speaker 5: The economy, Yeah, I think affordability is just going to 656 00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:54,159 be the buzzword of twenty twenty six, and everyone's going 657 00:35:54,199 --> 00:35:57,159 to paint themselves as sort of a populist fighter for 658 00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:02,039 the working person and the middle class. And that to 659 00:36:02,119 --> 00:36:05,400 me feels like what we're gonna hear a lot of okay. 660 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 1: And Trump, right, I mean, the one of the reasons 661 00:36:09,079 --> 00:36:11,119 I asked this question, I guess it's just like, is 662 00:36:11,199 --> 00:36:13,320 there is there is anything going to be able to 663 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,559 break through just the Trump focus? Right? It feels to 664 00:36:16,599 --> 00:36:21,159 me like even you know, even when we're talking about 665 00:36:21,159 --> 00:36:24,320 attorney general, right, like I'm the I'm getting the mailers now, 666 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,599 Maga May's Middleton, right, Like, even even in races that 667 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,280 you might not think have much to do with the president, 668 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:37,320 they're talking about the president on both sides. Controller right exactly. Yeah, Yeah, I. 669 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,119 Speaker 5: Mean I think for Republicans, they want to like make 670 00:36:40,159 --> 00:36:41,559 it seem like Trump is at the top of the 671 00:36:41,599 --> 00:36:43,760 ticket as much as they can, you know, especially in 672 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,559 their primary Democrats, I don't know, I feel like I've 673 00:36:47,559 --> 00:36:53,519 heard less, you know, explicit anti Trump messaging, although maybe 674 00:36:53,599 --> 00:36:57,119 maybe Jasmine Crockett is just like the anti Trump fighter, 675 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,559 but I don't know, I feel like I've heard a 676 00:36:59,599 --> 00:37:04,639 lot more focus on economic populism, and yeah, that's. 677 00:37:04,599 --> 00:37:07,679 Speaker 1: Kind of thing. It's interesting that you use the word affordability, 678 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,079 which has of course been sort of become the buzzword 679 00:37:10,119 --> 00:37:14,920 for Democrats, you know, nationally. How does that play out 680 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,079 in Texas, I think is a really interesting question. I mean, 681 00:37:17,119 --> 00:37:21,320 Texas has you know, traditionally been in an affordable state. There's 682 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,920 a lot of concern about like how dozing prices and 683 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,559 things like that possibly changing that to the extent that 684 00:37:26,559 --> 00:37:30,800 that that was a pretty high priority for Republicans this 685 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,760 past session. They passed some significant bills there, some with 686 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,239 the support of many with the support of Democrats. Property 687 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,800 taxes obviously play a factor in there too. I wonder 688 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:46,360 how how much of a cudgel can affordability be for 689 00:37:46,599 --> 00:37:48,000 Democrats in Texas. 690 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,039 Speaker 4: And I think also national and foreign affairs is going 691 00:37:51,119 --> 00:37:54,360 to affect how much candidates lean into or away from Trump. 692 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 1: Now it was morning. 693 00:37:55,519 --> 00:37:57,480 Speaker 4: Else was in don pr and they had a report 694 00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:01,360 out of Houston about how oil companies do you get 695 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,039 oil out from Venezuela. It's gonna be great for them, 696 00:38:03,039 --> 00:38:05,000 but not for the Texas economy. And then that effects 697 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,400 are revenue, and that affects mainly one of the races, 698 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,239 the person who collects that revenue, and then that affects 699 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,679 the other races who he gives that revenue to. I 700 00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:14,960 don't know. So that's gonna also be interesting how these 701 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,480 really massive, unprecedented, you know, global actions trickle down to us. 702 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,360 Speaker 5: I wonder if the finer point for Democrats here in 703 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,880 Texas on affordability is healthcare, and if they are going 704 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,280 to be trying to focus in on that more and 705 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,000 to you know, again put a finer point to the 706 00:38:32,039 --> 00:38:34,039 affordability argument. 707 00:38:34,199 --> 00:38:38,840 Speaker 1: But yeah, and then I'm also you know, to go 708 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,400 back to the question of like, what are the commercials 709 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,360 I'm going to have to be watching, you know, while 710 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,360 while trying to just not think about work and enjoy sports. 711 00:38:46,679 --> 00:38:50,320 I mean two years ago, twenty twenty four, it was 712 00:38:51,599 --> 00:38:54,960 social issues, it was you know, trans athletes and those 713 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,440 types of things. It'll be curious to know whether that 714 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:02,360 is still on people's minds two years later. 715 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 3: I think what I mean, I was sort of saying 716 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:05,800 this with like, you know, so many things have been 717 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,599 sort of addressed by President Trump in Texas and the 718 00:39:08,599 --> 00:39:10,320 state of Texas in a way that like closed law 719 00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,639 of doors to campaigning on it. One thing that has 720 00:39:12,679 --> 00:39:15,440 emerged in i mean the last several months or has 721 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,400 like reflamed is like pretty overt Islamophobia. I think is 722 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,400 like a lot of candidates are really campaigning on that, 723 00:39:22,519 --> 00:39:25,199 and candidates to have like nothing to do, you know, 724 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,239 offices that obviously have very little to do with you know, 725 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:32,920 people being Muslim is getting a lot of airtime, and 726 00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,800 so I'm curious to see how much that like penetrates 727 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:40,159 beyond like oh we're it an activist you know, you know, 728 00:39:41,079 --> 00:39:44,079 debate into like we're creating ads. 729 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,719 Speaker 2: About this, like this is a top issue. I think 730 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,519 that would be a real pivot, yeah, for sure. 731 00:39:47,519 --> 00:39:50,000 Speaker 1: And also, I mean, again going back to Trump, right, 732 00:39:50,119 --> 00:39:54,000 like so many of these I think Republican primaries are 733 00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:59,639 going to be fighting over who actually represents the MAGA 734 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,760 movement and who like can actually carry that mantle. You know, 735 00:40:03,199 --> 00:40:05,599 Cornyan is doing this already in the Senate race, talking 736 00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:08,239 about how much she votes for him, Like, can he 737 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:13,400 convince people that get people to buy that, because you know, 738 00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,480 there's his two opponents are going to be trying to 739 00:40:16,599 --> 00:40:18,840 push against that as much as they possibly can. And 740 00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,320 then I guess we'll see whether Trump endorses in this 741 00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,599 race or any others. It'll be fun to watch. 742 00:40:23,679 --> 00:40:25,920 Speaker 3: I think he loves the feeling of you know, they're 743 00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,039 all waiting for me to tell her who to vote 744 00:40:28,039 --> 00:40:28,880 for exactly. 745 00:40:29,159 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 1: Okay, last question, let's play Nate Silver. What are the 746 00:40:35,199 --> 00:40:39,320 what are what's the percentage chance of a Democrat actually 747 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,239 winning a statewide race. 748 00:40:42,079 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 2: In Texas, any. 749 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:49,360 Speaker 1: State wide race, if if they win some random Supreme 750 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,599 Court seat, Yeah, it counts all. 751 00:40:51,559 --> 00:40:58,159 Speaker 2: Right, any statewide seat in the scale starts at zero. 752 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,559 Speaker 1: It's zero to one hundred. 753 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,280 Speaker 5: Percent that they have a chance percent chance. 754 00:41:04,119 --> 00:41:07,800 Speaker 1: Yeah like yeah, like like Nate Silver's. 755 00:41:07,119 --> 00:41:12,039 Speaker 2: I'll do fourt wow whoa. 756 00:41:12,199 --> 00:41:15,440 Speaker 1: I was going to say five, whoa. Yeah. 757 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:18,679 Speaker 5: Honestly, it's not computing. 758 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:18,960 Speaker 2: In my head. 759 00:41:21,079 --> 00:41:21,840 Speaker 1: Zero if you want. 760 00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:22,679 Speaker 2: I don't think it's zero. 761 00:41:22,679 --> 00:41:23,599 Speaker 5: I think it's pretty low. 762 00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,559 Speaker 2: I like it. 763 00:41:25,559 --> 00:41:27,960 Speaker 5: It's just not competing in my head right now. I 764 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,639 think if they were to win a state wide. See, 765 00:41:29,679 --> 00:41:32,519 it would be like by point five of a point. 766 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:33,360 Speaker 2: Like half a percent. 767 00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:34,039 Speaker 3: A win is a win. 768 00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,679 Speaker 1: All right, Well, Kayla copped out? Where are you going 769 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:37,199 to play? 770 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:38,920 Speaker 4: I could give you like a three. 771 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,599 Speaker 3: I don't know, Okay, So no one's going against five, 772 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:42,719 no one's going over five. 773 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,559 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, you know, if you had ask me 774 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:48,599 on Friday, what are the percent chants that you know 775 00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,719 the US would you know, armed forces would enter Venezuela 776 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,840 and arrest happen. You know, like there's a lot of 777 00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,119 interesting things that could completely shake things up. But I agree, 778 00:41:59,159 --> 00:42:01,000 it's it's it's a remote chance. 779 00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,400 Speaker 3: And I'll say, if we are wrong, we will have 780 00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:08,400 whoever wins on tripcast and we will apologize formally for 781 00:42:08,519 --> 00:42:10,360 doubting their electoral acumen. 782 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, great, Well, thank y'all for this. It'll be 783 00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,840 a very exciting and interesting year, a very busy year 784 00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,519 for the three of you, but looking forward to it. 785 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,639 Also thanks to Robin Chris for our excellent new theme music, 786 00:42:26,679 --> 00:42:28,920 which hopefully you will hear as we play you out 787 00:42:29,079 --> 00:42:30,480 and we will talk to you next week.