Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Dave America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Joining me
Speaker 1: today is former senior advisor to President Obama David Oxelron.
Speaker 2: You all know Ax.
Speaker 1: Maybe you've heard him on this pod, listen to either
Speaker 1: of his shows, Hacks on Tap or The Ax Files,
Speaker 1: or you'd likely see him on CNN. AX is an
Speaker 1: all around expert that can speak to anything in democratic politics.
Speaker 1: I asked as to come on the show because I
Speaker 1: wanted to talk to someone smart about the midterms, both
Speaker 1: what the map looks like for the Dems after a
Speaker 1: series of devastating court rulings and what he thinks of
Speaker 1: some of the candidates running up and down the ballot.
Speaker 1: I also wanted to talk to him about messaging, namely
Speaker 1: how some of the party's leading voices and likely twenty
Speaker 1: twenty eight candidates are talking about the administration and if
Speaker 1: their theories of the case are actually any good. We
Speaker 1: shared a great and wide ranging conversation, which we'll get
Speaker 1: to in a minute, but before we do. If you're
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Speaker 1: to become a friend of the pot subscriber. All right,
Speaker 1: let's get to the show. Here's David oxlrond. What about
Speaker 1: What did you make of what happened in Maine? Because
Speaker 1: that seems to be sort of indicative of a shift
Speaker 1: in the party, a shift in what people are looking for,
Speaker 1: maybe a sense of the Senate leadership or the establishment
Speaker 1: is at least in that race and not was not
Speaker 1: in touch with what the voters wanted.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of factors here. One is that
Speaker 2: I think we're in an anti establishment moment, and that's
Speaker 2: true in both parties. I think there is a real
Speaker 2: jaundice about the status quo. You know, I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 2: You know, seventy percent of people in polling say the
Speaker 2: system is rigged, is corrupt, and rigged against them. I
Speaker 2: think there is a sense that Washington, you know, when
Speaker 2: you'll remember back in the day, Dan, when Barack Obama ran.
Speaker 2: One of the reasons he won was because his campaign
Speaker 2: was a full out critique of Washington generally, not just
Speaker 2: the Republicans, but Democrats as well, and the sort of red, red, blue,
Speaker 2: who's up, who's down kind of struggle for power that
Speaker 2: had nothing to do with people's lives lives of principal concerns.
Speaker 2: I think we're back there again, and so establishment candidates
Speaker 2: are at a disadvantage. And jam Mills is a perfectly
Speaker 2: good person and served honorably, was very much the establishment candidate,
Speaker 2: and she had the she had the stamp of Senator
Speaker 2: Schumer on her to certify that she was the establishment candidate,
Speaker 2: and she was. She have been seventy nine years old
Speaker 2: when she got sworn in. So part of the other
Speaker 2: discontent people feel after two octogenarian presidents is with you know,
Speaker 2: the gerontocracy in Washington, which also speaks to establishment politics.
Speaker 2: People don't feel like the folks in Washington are in
Speaker 2: touch with their lives or focused on their lives. And
Speaker 2: I think Trump has exacerbated it because he ran contending
Speaker 2: that he was and then you know, and now we
Speaker 2: were into you know, ballrooms and monuments, and you know,
Speaker 2: graft on a scale we've never seen before. This is
Speaker 2: one place where he says, nobody's ever seen anything like
Speaker 2: this before. He's right about this, Nobody's ever seen corruption
Speaker 2: at this scale before. And so people feel betrayed, you know,
Speaker 2: you know, those who voted for him or who had
Speaker 2: some hope for him, And all of this I think
Speaker 2: makes a candidate like Platner in Maine, you know, appealing
Speaker 2: because he's a grassroots guy. He seems to be speaking
Speaker 2: the language and living the life of people who feel unrepresented.
Speaker 2: And I mean, but it was stunning the degree to
Speaker 2: which he was able to take that, you know, by storm,
Speaker 2: I mean just literally blow the incumbent governor out of
Speaker 2: the race. You know, I actually wonder a little bit
Speaker 2: if he would have been better served by her hanging
Speaker 2: around for a while.
Speaker 1: One hundred percent agree with that. You know, there was
Speaker 1: no need to start for it his for I'm not
Speaker 1: surprised Platner one. I was very frustrated at the DSCC
Speaker 1: and Shumor for endorsing Mills to begin with, for these
Speaker 1: all the reasons you said, just the idea that we
Speaker 1: were just going to decide from on high end Washington
Speaker 1: that our best chance against Susan Collins was a seventy
Speaker 1: nine year old establishment politician. And I say that someone
Speaker 1: who likes Shanet Mills and interviewed her on the shot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, no she's not. She's but it's just it's.
Speaker 1: The it's the model everyone rejected last time, and Platner
Speaker 1: turned out to be. You know, I certainly thought he
Speaker 1: would definitely win prior to all the online posts, and
Speaker 1: then thought he you know, he navigated that well enough
Speaker 1: to survive and then knock her out of the water.
Speaker 1: But he would have been much better off if this
Speaker 1: had gone to the just to beat her, you delay
Speaker 1: the general election by another month instead. Now he's already
Speaker 1: got negatives against him from you know, Prosy's a concert.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't blame her, though. She ran out of money,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure that she was that eager to
Speaker 2: hang around just to let him claim the trophy, you know.
Speaker 2: So the thing, one other thing I think this underscores,
Speaker 2: and you know this from your own career, don't let
Speaker 2: yourself get talked into running for an office you don't
Speaker 2: want to run for because it's never going to end well,
Speaker 2: you're not going to be an effective candidate. Uh you know,
Speaker 2: I mean Platner. By the time she dropped out, he
Speaker 2: had done I think more than fifty town hall meetings
Speaker 2: in the state She had done I think zero, you know.
Speaker 2: And if if you guys have a huge listenership. So
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will tell me.
Speaker 1: It's a nuver closer to zero than fifty. I'll tell
Speaker 1: you that.
Speaker 2: Yes, well, there's no doubt about it. Yes, And uh,
Speaker 2: you know, you know he's hungry for this, and and
Speaker 2: he's eager for it, and he's young, and he's you know,
Speaker 2: going after it, and so getting drafted against your will
Speaker 2: is a is a bad way to enter a race.
Speaker 2: Don't back into a race.
Speaker 1: Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very
Speaker 1: interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first
Speaker 1: campaign appearance of the cycle, getting some tacos with James
Speaker 1: tell Errico and Gina hit A hosta who's running for governor.
Speaker 1: Trump weighed in on the race on his way back
Speaker 1: from China on Air Force One. Let's take a listen
Speaker 1: to what he had to say.
Speaker 3: The Democrats have a weird A weird can today six genders.
Speaker 3: I really hate it. On Jesus, I mean, this guy
Speaker 3: his man news with his mask from relatively recently, and
Speaker 3: he's a vegan. He's a vegan. All of a sudden,
Speaker 3: he's not a vegan. He's a vegan home now, all
Speaker 3: of a sudden, he's Texas doesn't like vegans. I do
Speaker 3: believe either one of them will easily win the race.
Speaker 3: I think that the candidate the Democrats have in Texas
Speaker 3: is a very lawed, very weak. I think he's a
Speaker 3: pathetic candidate, especially for Texas.
Speaker 2: You know that that Shakespeare thinking about that doth protests
Speaker 2: too much. But you know what's interesting about the dynamic
Speaker 2: in the Republican primary is that the the folks who
Speaker 2: want John Cornyn uh there there, they'll say privately that
Speaker 2: they think taller Eco's too left for Texas. They've got
Speaker 2: plenty of stuff they can take them out. Uh, But
Speaker 2: they're not saying anything because right now, what they're saying
Speaker 2: is tall Rico can win unless we knock Paxson out
Speaker 2: of the Paxton out of the race. If Paxton wins,
Speaker 2: tallar Rico can win. Once this primary is over, they're
Speaker 2: going to open up on him, and they're going to
Speaker 2: along the contours of what Trump is saying. I'm sure
Speaker 2: he was briefed. A bunch of his guys are working
Speaker 2: on the Corning campaign, but interestingly, he has an endorsed Corning.
Speaker 2: I trust that when Tallarico went out for tacos that
Speaker 2: he had beef for chicken.
Speaker 1: Is that not a vegan as Trump?
Speaker 2: Yes, not a van not a vegan. Did he say
Speaker 2: did I hear that right? That he's bad on Jesus
Speaker 2: or something? What did he say that?
Speaker 1: He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references
Speaker 1: I think I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online.
Speaker 1: The great question. I think it was at the same
Speaker 1: time he said the six genders thing. I don't I
Speaker 1: don't really know, but this is there have been some
Speaker 1: clips from a speech he gave in twenty twenty I
Speaker 1: imagine or right after that, that have been going around.
Speaker 1: I think Trump has obviously seen those and he is
Speaker 1: doing it. But I'm not sure the idea that James
Speaker 1: Hillary's anti Jesus is going to sell.
Speaker 2: No. I'm sure that he would love to have that
Speaker 2: conversation directly with the president, you know, you can't like
Speaker 2: violate like many of the major ten commandments and then
Speaker 2: start going after someone else over there. Christianity, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean tall Urico is clearly very you know,
Speaker 2: serious about his faith, and that's one of the reasons
Speaker 2: he is where he is because that's translated really well.
Speaker 2: And he you know, he has he has preached the
Speaker 2: gospel of the brotherhood of man, and people who are
Speaker 2: so tired of all this conflict are responding to him.
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens. Look, I think Texas is hard.
Speaker 2: You and I have gone through campaigns together where we
Speaker 2: held out hope for states like Missouri at one point,
Speaker 2: and and it always turned out to be fools gold.
Speaker 2: And the question is that the case here. One of
Speaker 2: the wild cards in Texas is that, you know, Trump
Speaker 2: won a solid victory there, but it was with a
Speaker 2: lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: The the two biggest losses in terms of support for
Speaker 2: Trump have been among Hispanics and young people. You know,
Speaker 2: Hispanic voters. I think they're very sensitive to economic issues.
Speaker 2: There are a working class constituency in the main UH
Speaker 2: and I think the the in South Texas, I think
Speaker 2: they were eager for border border control, they weren't eager
Speaker 2: to be racially profiled. And I think because of all
Speaker 2: the stuff that Ice has done, combined with the economic stuff,
Speaker 2: he has completely delta way the advantages that he gained
Speaker 2: among Hispanic voters. That puts Texas more in play. It
Speaker 2: also means that they're probably not going to capture all
Speaker 2: the seats they thought they were going to capture when
Speaker 2: they jerry mandered the state.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Tallarico is a uniquely
Speaker 1: talented candidate.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's very good.
Speaker 2: He is.
Speaker 3: He is.
Speaker 1: I think if anyone can do it, it's James Talerico
Speaker 1: in this year, particularly against Paxton. He you know, the
Speaker 1: the Latino numbers you print out are very notable. Pew
Speaker 1: as a poll out today which shows that Trump's appropriating
Speaker 1: among Latino Trump voters is down thirty points since election
Speaker 1: Day twenty twenty four, which is you know that that's
Speaker 1: a big chunk of voters. You know, we saw this
Speaker 1: in the primary. Right, it's a primary, but tall Rico
Speaker 1: got more primary votes than Kamala Harriscott votes in you know,
Speaker 1: sometimes my Magicatuto two or three and some of these
Speaker 1: Rio Grand Valley counties, she got two or three times
Speaker 1: number votes Kama Harris gott on election day in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four. So there's obviously some persuasions. And this is
Speaker 1: not just turn out. There's some persuasion happening here because
Speaker 1: a lot of these people, these these Latinos that voted
Speaker 1: for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting.
Speaker 2: No, I was going to say, just on the Hispanic issue,
Speaker 2: I think one of the reasons Trump Trump is harping
Speaker 2: on him and you know in Christ is that I
Speaker 2: think it's very advantageous for Talla Rico to be able
Speaker 2: to go into churches across Texas, including Hispanic churches, and
Speaker 2: as fluent as he is in scripture. And so I
Speaker 2: think Trump is trying to chip away, chip away at that.
Speaker 1: What were you going to say, I was going to say,
Speaker 1: I was gonna ask you about the decision to have
Speaker 1: Obama comeing to Texas for him, like and is a
Speaker 1: race where he's got to win. You know, Trump won
Speaker 1: Texas by thirteen. I think he's got to get a
Speaker 1: bunch of people to pull the lever for Trump to
Speaker 1: vote for him. Do you think springing Obama was a
Speaker 1: good move.
Speaker 2: You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but
Speaker 2: my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're
Speaker 2: not they're not bad. And there is a you know,
Speaker 2: Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you will, but there is a stature thing.
Speaker 2: It kind of elevates uh tall Rico in the race,
Speaker 2: and he may just want to, you know, because of
Speaker 2: the whole vagan thing. As you said, Trump said, maybe
Speaker 2: he just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good
Speaker 2: beef taco.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I look, I think also, I imagine I'd
Speaker 1: have to look at it, imagine that Obama's numbers with
Speaker 1: Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump, are
Speaker 1: quite good. And so with like Tallerco's smart, his campaigns
Speaker 1: be run by smart people. They're they're not just doing
Speaker 1: this because it's good for TikTok views, like they obviously
Speaker 1: have look at their data that suggests that with their
Speaker 1: target voters, Obama is a plus and the other. It's
Speaker 1: not like there are a bunch of Republicans who are
Speaker 1: going to stay home because they're mad at Trump and
Speaker 1: all the sudden back. Obama shows up for Tacos one
Speaker 1: day in May, like, okay, we're turning out.
Speaker 2: One last thing on this. I mean, one of the
Speaker 2: reasons Trump's going after tall Ico is because it seems
Speaker 2: pretty clear that he's decided to stay out of this race.
Speaker 2: There was a presumption that he was going to endorse
Speaker 2: John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's
Speaker 2: now been convinced that either of them can win. But
Speaker 2: the Paxton question is really an open one because he's
Speaker 2: a guy who's absolutely freighted with scandal, and while he's
Speaker 2: very popular with the Republican base, he could be very
Speaker 2: vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs around
Speaker 2: the big cities there. I don't think Obama's going to
Speaker 2: play badly with those voters. I don't think it's going
Speaker 2: to hurt Tallarico to have him there with those with
Speaker 2: those voters. So we'll see. But I will say, I mean,
Speaker 2: because of the Fool's gold ps PTSD, I have, you know,
Speaker 2: I'm looking, you know, I look at Iowa, for example,
Speaker 2: and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to be a
Speaker 2: better shot than Texas? Is Alaska? With Mary Peltola and
Speaker 2: the rank choice voting system against a very weak incumbent
Speaker 2: in Sullivan. Does that give you a better chance. Here's
Speaker 2: the thing when you know you have to win a
Speaker 2: couple of states where Trump won by double digits in
Speaker 2: any case, and you want as many opportunities as possible,
Speaker 2: So Democrats can turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas
Speaker 2: even and I think it's the longest of them, but
Speaker 2: even Nebraska, you know, where you have an independent candidate
Speaker 2: supported by Democrats who did very well in a Trump
Speaker 2: landslide last time against Ricketts, the senator, the Incombing senator,
Speaker 2: former governor. You know, I think that there's a better
Speaker 2: than fifty to fifty chance that Democrats can piece it together,
Speaker 2: assuming that the wave is what we think the wave
Speaker 2: could be. And remember the wave is more important in
Speaker 2: these Senate races. You know, they may piece districts together
Speaker 2: to hold down the House margin, but statewide, you know harder.
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Speaker 1: What about What did you make of what happened in Maine?
Speaker 1: Because that seems to be sort of indicative of a
Speaker 1: shift in the party, a shift in what people are
Speaker 1: looking for, maybe a sense of the Senate leadership or
Speaker 1: the establishment is at least in that race, and that
Speaker 1: was not in touch with the voters wanted.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of factors here. One is that
Speaker 2: I think we're in an anti establishment moment, and that's
Speaker 2: true in both parties. I think there is a real
Speaker 2: jaundice about the status quo. You know, I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 2: You know, seventy percent of people in polling say the
Speaker 2: system is corrupt and rigged against them. I think there
Speaker 2: is a sense that Washington. You know, when you'll remember
Speaker 2: back in the day, Dan, when Barack Obama ran, one
Speaker 2: of the reasons he won was because his campaign was
Speaker 2: a full out critique of Washington generally, not just the Republicans,
Speaker 2: but Democrats as well, and the sort of red red blue,
Speaker 2: Who's up, Who's down? Kind of struggle for power that
Speaker 2: had nothing to do with people's lives. Lives are print concerns.
Speaker 2: I think we're back there again, and so establishment candidates
Speaker 2: are at a disadvantage. And jam Mills is a perfectly
Speaker 2: good person and has served honorably. Was very much the
Speaker 2: establishment candidate, and she had the she had the stamp
Speaker 2: of Senator Schumer on her to certify that she was
Speaker 2: the establishment candidate, and she was. She would have been
Speaker 2: seventy nine years old when she got sworn in. So
Speaker 2: part of the other discontent people feel after two octogenarian
Speaker 2: presidents is with you know, the gerontocracy in Washington, which
Speaker 2: also speaks to establishment politics. People don't feel like the
Speaker 2: folks in Washington are in touch with their lives or
Speaker 2: focused on their lives. And I think Trump has exacerbated
Speaker 2: it because he ran contending that he was and then
Speaker 2: you know, and now we were into you know, ballrooms
Speaker 2: and monuments and you know, graft on a scale we've
Speaker 2: never seen before. This is one place where he says,
Speaker 2: nobody's ever seen anything like this before. He's right about this,
Speaker 2: Nobody's ever seen corruption at this scale before. And so
Speaker 2: people feel betrayed, you know, you know, those who voted
Speaker 2: for him or who had some hope for him, And
Speaker 2: all of this I think makes a candidate like Platner
Speaker 2: in Maine, you know, appealing because he's a grassroots guy.
Speaker 2: He seems to be speaking the language and living the
Speaker 2: life of people who feel unrepresented. And I mean, but
Speaker 2: it was stunning the degree to which he was able
Speaker 2: to take that, you know, by storm, I mean just
Speaker 2: literally blow the incumbent governor out of the race. You know,
Speaker 2: I actually wonder a little bit if he would have
Speaker 2: been better served by her hanging around for a while.
Speaker 1: One hundred percent agree with that there was no need
Speaker 1: to start for it his for I'm not surprised Platner won.
Speaker 1: I was very frustrated at the DSCC and tumor for
Speaker 1: endorsing Mills to begin with, for these other reasons. You said,
Speaker 1: just the idea that we were just going to decide
Speaker 1: from on high in Washington that our best chance against
Speaker 1: Susan Collins was a seventy nine year old establishing politician.
Speaker 1: And I say that someone who likes Shannet Mills and
Speaker 1: interviewed her on the show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, Joe, No, she's not. She's but it's just
Speaker 2: it's the.
Speaker 1: It's the model everyone rejected last time, and Platner turned
Speaker 1: out to be. You know, I certainly thought he would
Speaker 1: definitely win prior to all the online posts, and then
Speaker 1: thought he you know, he navigated that well enough to
Speaker 1: survive and then knock her out of the water. But
Speaker 1: he would have been much better off if this had
Speaker 1: gone to the ends to beat her, you delay the
Speaker 1: general election by another month instead. Now he's already got
Speaker 1: negatives against him from you know, prosus a consumper.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't blame her, though she ran out of money,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure that she was that eager to
Speaker 2: hang around just to let him claim the trophy, you know.
Speaker 2: So the thing one other thing I think this underscores,
Speaker 2: and you know this from your own career, don't let
Speaker 2: yourself get talked into running for an office you don't
Speaker 2: want to run for because it's never going to end well.
Speaker 2: You're not going to be an effective candidate, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean Platner. By the time she dropped out, he
Speaker 2: had done I think more than fifty town hall meetings
Speaker 2: in the state. She had done I think zero, you know,
Speaker 2: and if if you guys have a huge listenership. So
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will tell me.
Speaker 1: It's a number closer to zero than fifty. I'll tell
Speaker 1: you that.
Speaker 2: Yes, well, there's no doubt about it. Yes, And you know,
Speaker 2: you know he's hungry for this and and he's eager
Speaker 2: for it, and he's young, and he's you know, going
Speaker 2: after it, and so getting drafted against your will is
Speaker 2: a is a bad way to enter a race. Don't
Speaker 2: back into a race.
Speaker 1: Another race the Democrats are very excited about and very
Speaker 1: interested in is Texas. Our old boss made his first
Speaker 1: campaign appearance of the cycle, getting some tacos with James
Speaker 1: tell Rico and Gina hit, a host who's running for governor.
Speaker 1: Trump wided on the race on his way back from
Speaker 1: China on Air Force One. Let's take a listen to
Speaker 1: what he had to say.
Speaker 3: The Democrats have a weird a weird can today, six genders,
Speaker 3: a real hate on Jesus. Yeah, I mean this guy
Speaker 3: his bad news with his mask from relatively recently. And
Speaker 3: he's a vegan. He's a vegan. All of a sudden,
Speaker 3: he's not a vegan. He's a vegan hole now, all
Speaker 3: of a sudden. He said, Texas doesn't like vegans. I
Speaker 3: do believe either one of them will easily win the race.
Speaker 3: And I think that the candidate the Democrats have in
Speaker 3: Texas is a very flawed, very weak. I think he's
Speaker 3: a pathetic candidate, especially for.
Speaker 2: You know that that Shakespeare thinking about that doc protests
Speaker 2: too much. But you know what's interesting about the dynamic
Speaker 2: in the Republican primary is that the folks who want
Speaker 2: John cornynh there, they'll say privately that they think tall
Speaker 2: Ico's too left for Texas. They've got plenty of stuff
Speaker 2: they can take them out, but they're not saying anything
Speaker 2: because right now, what they're saying is tall Ico can
Speaker 2: win unless we knock Paxton out of the Paxton out
Speaker 2: of the race. If Paxton wins, tall Ico can win.
Speaker 2: Once this primary is over, they're going to open up
Speaker 2: on him and they're going to along the contours of
Speaker 2: what Trump is saying. I'm sure he was briefed. A
Speaker 2: bunch of his guys are working on the Corning campaign.
Speaker 2: But interestingly, he has an endorsed Cornin. I trust that
Speaker 2: when Tallarico went out for tacos that he had beefer chicken.
Speaker 1: Is that not a vegan as Trump, Yes, not a
Speaker 1: vagan talking.
Speaker 2: About not a vegan. Did he say did I hear
Speaker 2: that right? That he's bad on Jesus or something? What
Speaker 2: did he say that?
Speaker 1: He said he had a hit on Jesus, which references
Speaker 1: I think I'm guessing here, which shows I'm way too online.
Speaker 1: The great question. I think it was at the same
Speaker 1: time he said the six genders thing. I don't I
Speaker 1: don't really know, but this is there have been some
Speaker 1: clips from a speech he gave in twenty twenty I
Speaker 1: imagine or right after that that had been going around.
Speaker 1: I think Trump has obviously seen those and he is
Speaker 1: doing it. But I'm not sure the idea that James
Speaker 1: Hillary goes anti Jesus is going to sell.
Speaker 2: No, I'm sure that he would love to have that
Speaker 2: conversation directly with the president. You know, you can't like
Speaker 2: violate like many of the major ten commandments and then
Speaker 2: start going after someone else over there. Christianity, you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, I I mean tall Rico is clearly very
Speaker 2: you know, serious about his faith and that's one of
Speaker 2: the reasons he is where he is because that's translated
Speaker 2: really well and he you know, he has he has
Speaker 2: preached the gospel of the brotherhood of man, and people
Speaker 2: who are so tired of all this conflict are responding
Speaker 2: to him. So we'll see what happens. Look, I think
Speaker 2: Texas is hard. You and I have gone through campaigns
Speaker 2: together where we held out hope for states like Missouri
Speaker 2: at one point, and it always turned out to be
Speaker 2: fools gold. And the question is that the case here.
Speaker 2: One of the wild cards in Texas is that, you know,
Speaker 2: Trump won a solid victory there, but it was with
Speaker 2: a lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas. The
Speaker 2: two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump have
Speaker 2: been among Hispanics and young people. You know, Hispanic voters.
Speaker 2: I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. There were
Speaker 2: a working class constituency in the main uh and I
Speaker 2: think that the U in South Texas. I think they
Speaker 2: were eager for border border control. They weren't eager to
Speaker 2: be racially profiled. And h I think because of all
Speaker 2: the stuff that Ice has done, combined with the economic stuff,
Speaker 2: he has completely dealt away the advantages that he gained
Speaker 2: among Hispanic voters. That puts Texas more in play. It
Speaker 2: also means that they're probably not going to capture all
Speaker 2: the seats they thought they were going to capture when
Speaker 2: they jerry mandered the state.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Talarriico is a uniquely
Speaker 1: talented candidate.
Speaker 2: Yeah he's great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's very good. He is, he is. I
Speaker 1: think if anyone can do it, it's James Talerico in
Speaker 1: this year, particularly against Paxton. He you know, they his
Speaker 1: The Latino numbers you print out are very notable. P
Speaker 1: has a phole out today which shows that Trump's rating
Speaker 1: among Latino Trump voters is down thirty points since election
Speaker 1: day twenty twenty four, which is you know that that's
Speaker 1: a big chunk of voters. You know, we saw this
Speaker 1: in the primary. Right, it's a primary, but tall Rico
Speaker 1: got more primary votes than Kamala Harriscott votes. And you
Speaker 1: know sometimes I Matigntuto two or three and some of
Speaker 1: these Rio Grand Valley counties she got two or three
Speaker 1: times time votes Kamala Harriscott on election day in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four. So there's obviously some persuasions and this is
Speaker 1: not just turn out. There's some persuasion happening here because
Speaker 1: a lot of these people, these these Latinos have voted
Speaker 1: for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's it's interesting now.
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, just on the Hispanic issue, I
Speaker 2: think one of the reasons Trump Trump is harping on
Speaker 2: him and you know in Christ is that I think
Speaker 2: it's very advantageous for tall Rico to be able to
Speaker 2: go into churches across Texas, including Hispanic churches and as
Speaker 2: flu as he is in scripture. And so I think
Speaker 2: Trump is trying to chip away, chip away at that.
Speaker 1: What were you going to say, I was going to say,
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you about the decision to
Speaker 1: have Obama come to Texas for him, Like, is a
Speaker 1: race where he's got to win. You know, Trump won
Speaker 1: Texas by thirteen. I think he's got to get a
Speaker 1: bunch of people who pull the lever for Trump to
Speaker 1: vote for him. Do you think springing Obama was a
Speaker 1: good move?
Speaker 2: You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but
Speaker 2: my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're
Speaker 2: not They're not bad. And there is a you know,
Speaker 2: Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you will, but there is a stature thing.
Speaker 2: It kind of elevates uh Tallarico in the race, and
Speaker 2: he may just want to, you know, because of the
Speaker 2: whole vagan thing. As you said, Trump said, maybe he
Speaker 2: just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I look, I think I think also, I
Speaker 1: imagine I'd have to look at it. I imagine that
Speaker 1: Obama's numbers with Latino voters, even Latino voters who've voted
Speaker 1: for Trump, are quite good. And so with like Tylerico's smart,
Speaker 1: his campaigns be run by smart people. They're they're not
Speaker 1: just doing this because it's good for TikTok views, like
Speaker 1: they obviously look at their data to suggests that with
Speaker 1: their target voters, Obama is a plus and the other.
Speaker 1: It's not like there are a bunch of Republicans who
Speaker 1: are going to stay home because they're mad a Trump
Speaker 1: and all the sudden back Obama shows up for tacos
Speaker 1: one day in May, like, okay, we're turning out.
Speaker 2: One last thing on this. I mean. One of the
Speaker 2: reasons Trump's going after tall Rico is because it seems
Speaker 2: pretty clear that he's decided to stay out of this race.
Speaker 2: There was a presumption that he was going to endorse
Speaker 2: John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's
Speaker 2: now been convinced that either of them can win. But
Speaker 2: the Paxton question is really an open one because he's
Speaker 2: a guy who's absolutely freighted with scandal, and while he's
Speaker 2: very popular with the republic and base, he could be
Speaker 2: very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs
Speaker 2: around the big cities there. I don't think Obama's going
Speaker 2: to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's
Speaker 2: going to hurt Tallery to have them there with those
Speaker 2: with those voters. So we'll see. But I will say,
Speaker 2: I mean, because of the Fool's Gold ps PTSD, I have,
Speaker 2: you know, I'm looking, you know, I look at Iowa
Speaker 2: for example, and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to
Speaker 2: be a better shot than Texas is Alaska with Mary
Speaker 2: Peltola and the rank choice voting system against a very
Speaker 2: weak incumbent in Sullivan? Does that give you a better chance.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. When you you know you have to
Speaker 2: win a couple of states where Trump won by double
Speaker 2: digits in any case, and you want as many opportunities
Speaker 2: as possible. So Democrats can turn to a law to
Speaker 2: Iowa to Texas even and I think it's the longest
Speaker 2: of them, but even Nebraska, you know, where you have
Speaker 2: an independent candidate supported by Democrats who did very well
Speaker 2: in a Trump landslide last time against Ricketts, the senator,
Speaker 2: the incumbent senator, former governor. You know, I think that
Speaker 2: there's a better than fifty to fifty chance that Democrats
Speaker 2: can piece it together, assuming that the wave is what
Speaker 2: we think the wave could be. And remember, the wave
Speaker 2: is more important in these Senate races. You know, they
Speaker 2: may peace districts together to hold down the House margin,
Speaker 2: but statewide, you know, harder.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, the SENTI map is I mean, it's challenging, and
Speaker 1: so it's kind of shocking and it says everything that
Speaker 1: we'd be sitting here now and you'd say it's a
Speaker 1: coin flip that we take the senator. Maybe even a
Speaker 1: little bit better than a coin flip when I look
Speaker 1: at it, you just if you're just doing like most
Speaker 1: likely scenarios, Like I'm sure I would probably pick Alaska
Speaker 1: of the Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Probably I'd pick Alaska
Speaker 1: just because of the fact that Mary Pottol was one
Speaker 1: in that state before there is ranked choice voting. Dan
Speaker 1: Sullivan is particularly unpopular. And then you know, I think
Speaker 1: maybe Ohio, Yeah, and then the other so I think Ohio.
Speaker 2: I you know, shared Brown came pretty close last time,
Speaker 2: as Trump was carrying the state by double digits, and
Speaker 2: he's running against the senator who was appointed, who's never
Speaker 2: run on his own statewide, and who doesn't have a
Speaker 2: you know, a huge image in the state. So he's
Speaker 2: going to be more associated with Trump just by dint
Speaker 2: of of having no real profile. I mean, he'll try
Speaker 2: and be He was DeWine's guy. He'll try and run
Speaker 2: that way, but he can't run away from Trump. Trump
Speaker 2: won't allow him. And it's very hard, as you know,
Speaker 2: to run away from an incumbent president anyway, So you know,
Speaker 2: and shared shared Brown was was a economic populist before
Speaker 2: economic populism was cool. So I think, you know, I'm
Speaker 2: not sure that I would rate Alaska over Ohio, but
Speaker 2: I think that the most likely combination if Democrats are
Speaker 2: to take the Senate would be North Carolina, Maine, Ohio,
Speaker 2: and Alaska.
Speaker 1: I'm sort of stipulating Maine in North Carolina as must
Speaker 1: wins because winning three of the other four is hard.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he platter is going to you saw a
Speaker 2: David French wrote a very tough column in the New
Speaker 2: York Times this week about him, and I mean not
Speaker 2: that people read that, but that was the tenor of
Speaker 2: what he You know, they're going to go back at
Speaker 2: him with more ferocity. And but Susan Collins, you know,
Speaker 2: after all this time and given the nature of the Times,
Speaker 2: is is a is a really vulnerable candidate, you know,
Speaker 2: So we'll see for all the reasons we discussed earlier.
Speaker 1: It's Susan Collins thing is interesting because she has been
Speaker 1: like she is a Republican in a state the Democrats
Speaker 1: win by nine points. Should beat her, should have beaten
Speaker 1: her in twenty twenty. She's very tough to beat. She's
Speaker 1: been fortunate enough to be able to avoid some of
Speaker 1: the worst votes this time around because of the Senate margin.
Speaker 2: They cut her loose to do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, she didn't have to vite for over the
Speaker 1: beautiful bill. She got to take a pass on some
Speaker 1: of the worst cabinet appointments. But she still is a
Speaker 1: republican democratic state and one who represents status quo. You know,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a very fascinating race. And the question is,
Speaker 1: you know, you and I both know the folks working
Speaker 1: on that race is ken Platner with staying what will
Speaker 1: be a massive amount of scrutiny, some of it from
Speaker 1: his own side, because the people a pretty pissed about
Speaker 1: how this race played out and every possible dollar dumped
Speaker 1: on his head with some of the nastiest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, I think you know time, time
Speaker 2: will tell about that. Yeah. I heard someone told me
Speaker 2: about a focus group in that state, and someone was
Speaker 2: talking about Susan Collins and they said she's bipartis she's
Speaker 2: only bipartisan when it doesn't count. Uh, And I think
Speaker 2: that's something that some of a lot of voters there
Speaker 2: kind of into it. And you know, she didn't vote
Speaker 2: for all of Trump's Supreme Court nominees, but she voted
Speaker 2: for some.
Speaker 1: But he's the ones accounted for sure.
Speaker 2: As it pointed out to someone that's you know, you
Speaker 2: can you can remove a tattoo, but you can't remove
Speaker 2: a Supreme Court justice. So you know that we'll see
Speaker 2: how they goes. It'll be a fascinating, fascinating race. But
Speaker 2: I'm assuming that that Platner wins the race in the end.
Speaker 1: That's that's my hope for sure. You know, both in
Speaker 1: the House in the Senate, everyone keeps saying that the
Speaker 1: campaigns about affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability, Like obviously just saying
Speaker 1: the word affordability is not actually a message. Although you know,
Speaker 1: some Democrats have the habit of reading the stage diructions
Speaker 1: instead of the script, and so they're just saying affordability. Ever, again,
Speaker 1: is a message around affordability and not this need to
Speaker 1: be bigger than that. What do you think Democrats should
Speaker 1: be saying, well, I think I think that we have
Speaker 1: structural issues in our economy.
Speaker 2: We've got the affordability issue is hitting people hard, but
Speaker 2: people have been you know, kind of bobbing in the
Speaker 2: water and not gaining for a long time, and the
Speaker 2: polarity in our economy gets worse, and AI is going
Speaker 2: to turbocharge that, at least in the short run, maybe
Speaker 2: in the long run. And I really think I don't
Speaker 2: know that it's necessary to win in November. There are
Speaker 2: there are discrete things you could propose in order to
Speaker 2: win it in this November, But as I said, it's
Speaker 2: largely a referendum. Anybody who runs for president better have
Speaker 2: a much bigger vision about how you reform a system
Speaker 2: that was broken before. I've always you know, I think
Speaker 2: it's a mistake to assume that when you run in
Speaker 2: twenty eight that the message could be We're just going
Speaker 2: to kind of restore everything that Trump knocked down, because
Speaker 2: people weren't that happy with the system before he knocked
Speaker 2: it down. I mean, they didn't feel they were being
Speaker 2: well served, and you know, they felt the system was corrupt,
Speaker 2: they felt was rigged against them, they felt that they
Speaker 2: weren't getting ahead and that's you know, it requires big
Speaker 2: structural kinds of answers that you know, to not only
Speaker 2: to to put some equity into the system, but also
Speaker 2: to genuinely try and reform a system that is you know,
Speaker 2: since our you remember when our boss warned people about
Speaker 2: Citizens United in twenty ten and Justice Alito was deeply
Speaker 2: offended by that and shook his head on the floor.
Speaker 2: Everything he said has happened. I mean, we are awash
Speaker 2: in money and dark money and pernicious influence, and it's
Speaker 2: it all conspires against working people. So campaign finance reform
Speaker 2: is really important. We also have to think, I think democrats.
Speaker 2: You know, what strikes me, Dan is that we have
Speaker 2: this battle going on between the great ideas of the
Speaker 2: nineteenth century and the great ideas of the twentieth century.
Speaker 2: You know, you know, tariffs and no civil service and
Speaker 2: so on from the nineteenth century, and then you know
Speaker 2: sort of ROOSEVELTI and structures in the twentieth century. And
Speaker 2: we're in the twenty first century, and we ought to
Speaker 2: be thinking about how do we solve the problems of
Speaker 2: today using the tools of today, and not be wetted
Speaker 2: to the old ways of doing things, be wetted to
Speaker 2: creating a country in which people can work hard and
Speaker 2: get ahead, and where we can deal with some of
Speaker 2: our most pressing problems. But don't assume that the way
Speaker 2: we approach them in the twentieth century is necessarily the
Speaker 2: way we have to approach them now. I think there's
Speaker 2: a lot of room for a genuinely reform oriented candidate
Speaker 2: who has some vision for the future to move this country.
Speaker 2: I also, now you put the quarter in, you're getting
Speaker 2: ten plays.
Speaker 3: But I.
Speaker 1: Love it.
Speaker 2: But you know, I've been thinking a lot about this election,
Speaker 2: and no two elections are alike. But if you were
Speaker 2: going to say, well, what is this election most like,
Speaker 2: it goes back to one that you will not remember
Speaker 2: but I do, which is the election of nineteen seventy six.
Speaker 2: Who's the first election I ever voted in, when right
Speaker 2: after Watergate, and the country was stunned by what happened
Speaker 2: in Watergate, by the corruption of Richard Nixon, and and
Speaker 2: by the way, you know, there was a real politicization
Speaker 2: of the Justice Department of the CIA of a lot
Speaker 2: of these I mean, it was it was somewhat analogous
Speaker 2: to what we're facing today. People wanted a cleansing. They
Speaker 2: wanted to give Washington in an angioplasty. They wanted a
Speaker 2: fresh start, and that's how Jimmy Carter emerged. In nineteen
Speaker 2: seventy six. No one would have known who Jimmy Carter
Speaker 2: was at this point, and he became the nominee of
Speaker 2: the party and he won. I don't know who that
Speaker 2: person is, but I think that two things. Qualities of
Speaker 2: character are going to be very important. Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility,
Speaker 2: all the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to
Speaker 2: be prized in twenty twenty eight. And the second thing
Speaker 2: is I think being an outsider who's willing to really
Speaker 2: challenge orthodoxy in Washington, challenge the institutions on behalf of
Speaker 2: people is going to be a candidate who's well received.
Speaker 1: This is a perfect segue to what I want to
Speaker 1: get to because we're gonna have a little fun here.
Speaker 1: I'm going to play some clips from some twenty eight
Speaker 1: potential twenty eight contenders and get your take on them,
Speaker 1: but as messengers what they're saying. But before we get
Speaker 1: to that, I want to you sat down with AOC
Speaker 1: at the Institute of Politics before a live audience one
Speaker 1: of her answers went quite viral. I'm going to play
Speaker 1: it for audience. I'm gonna ask you about it.
Speaker 7: It was very clear this was a veiled threat. Right,
Speaker 7: So the elite saying, if you want this job, you
Speaker 7: just stepped out of line. They assumed that my ambition
Speaker 7: is positional. They assume that my ambition is a title
Speaker 7: or a seat, And my ambition is way bigger than that.
Speaker 7: My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go,
Speaker 7: Senate House seats, selected officials come and go. But single
Speaker 7: payer health cares forever, a living wage is forever, workers
Speaker 7: rite for forever, women's right.
Speaker 1: So a couple of questions on this. Did that answer
Speaker 1: was a worsh ark test for people about whether she
Speaker 1: was going to run for president or not run for president.
Speaker 1: I wanted to see what do you how did you
Speaker 1: take that? Do you think that means she's planning on
Speaker 1: running for president and planning run for the Senate doesn't
Speaker 1: yet know?
Speaker 2: First of all, let me say I thought it was
Speaker 2: a really powerful answer. You know, I heard Favreau say
Speaker 2: the other day that if you want to run for president,
Speaker 2: you better know what you believe, and what she was
Speaker 2: saying there is. I'm not in politics for a job.
Speaker 2: I'm in politics for goals that might impact positively on
Speaker 2: people's lives, the kind of people who I grew up with,
Speaker 2: the kind of people live all over this country. And
Speaker 2: I think she really means it, and I think that
Speaker 2: authenticity is really powerful. That said, if you you know,
Speaker 2: she said other things in this answer and elsewhere in
Speaker 2: this kind of conversation that made me think she really
Speaker 2: isn't hungering for that job. And if I were her,
Speaker 2: what I would be thinking is I want to have
Speaker 2: an impact, and I'm not ready to sideline myself. The
Speaker 2: chances of anyone getting elected president, no matter how good
Speaker 2: they are, are limited. And you know, she's thirty six
Speaker 2: years old. Now, she'll be thirty eight. She could walk
Speaker 2: into that Senate seat in New York. And interestingly, with
Speaker 2: this crowd of young people, I said, you know, some
Speaker 2: people would like to see you run for president, and
Speaker 2: a bunch of them cheered, and I said, others would
Speaker 2: like to see you run for Senator Schumer's seat in
Speaker 2: New York. Louder cheers.
Speaker 1: I couldn't tell they were cheering for her to run
Speaker 1: for senator or cheering for the fact that you said
Speaker 1: Schumer was up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it was definitely a combination of those two things.
Speaker 2: You know, she's got a high class problem here. She'd
Speaker 2: get a lot of votes if she ran for president.
Speaker 2: But I think the way I interpret what she said
Speaker 2: is I'm going to go where I think I can
Speaker 2: continue this fight for those things that I believe in
Speaker 2: and have the most impact I can have right now.
Speaker 2: And that led me to conclude that she is more
Speaker 2: likely headed to the Senate race than to the presidential race.
Speaker 2: I mean nothing, she told me nothing, but was reading
Speaker 2: between the lines. I would be more surprised if she
Speaker 2: ran for president than if she ran for the Senate.
Speaker 2: And you and I both know that she would not
Speaker 2: be one of one hundred if she went to the Senate.
Speaker 2: She you know, she would. You know, when Barack Obama
Speaker 2: went to the Senate, he was you know, number whatever,
Speaker 2: ninety nine, ninety eight in the Senate, but he was
Speaker 2: not the ninety eighth member of the Senate. People were
Speaker 2: always interested in what he had to say.
Speaker 1: Yeah, she I have seen. I worked for as you
Speaker 1: have as well, worked for many politicians who were planning
Speaker 1: to run for president. Who got this question for the
Speaker 1: years releading up to the actual announcement, and the general
Speaker 1: approach is to just start muttering words until the until
Speaker 1: the the question Sto's paying attention, and they're terrible at it.
Speaker 1: And this is the mean, I say this, without any hesitation,
Speaker 1: the best answer I've ever seen if anyone asked that question.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well, you know, I mean, it really does
Speaker 2: help to be motivated by doing something, then by being something.
Speaker 2: I mean, the world of politics devising these into these
Speaker 2: two cohorts. The people who run because they want to
Speaker 2: be something, and that's the larger cohort, and then the smaller,
Speaker 2: more admirable and the more impactful cohort are the people
Speaker 2: who run for office because they want to do something.
Speaker 2: And that doesn't mean they don't have personal ambition, but
Speaker 2: but you really, you know, honestly, I would say this
Speaker 2: anybody runs for president. It's too damn hard to do it.
Speaker 2: I don't mean just to win, but it's such an
Speaker 2: arduous thing to do. Don't do it unless you know
Speaker 2: why you're doing it, and just you know, and if
Speaker 2: you think that it's such a prize to live in
Speaker 2: a gilded prison, you're making a mistake. You know, no
Speaker 2: one ever will no one ever will feel sorry for
Speaker 2: a president of the United States. But you do change
Speaker 2: your life forever, and it's not all positive. I mean,
Speaker 2: you basically give up your you know, a lot to
Speaker 2: do it. I you know, I think I'm not saying
Speaker 2: that she won't run, and I'm not saying that she
Speaker 2: won't run some day, but based on what I heard,
Speaker 2: and if I were betting on it, I would bet
Speaker 2: that she's going to the one place and not the other.
Speaker 1: I had the same impression that she was, that he
Speaker 1: clearly the people who have wanted to be president since
Speaker 1: they were seventeen years old. She said, thats it's obviously
Speaker 1: the answer. And she's clearly not one of those people.
Speaker 2: She said that. She said, I'm not one of these
Speaker 2: people who have been planning my my, you know, planning
Speaker 2: my campaign for an office since I was seven, seven
Speaker 2: years old, she said, you know, you we all remember
Speaker 2: her when she the night she got elected to or
Speaker 2: nominated to the Congress, and she was in her headquarters
Speaker 2: in a billiards hall and the Bronx with some supporters
Speaker 2: around her, with her hand over her mouth and her
Speaker 2: eyes wide open, watching these returns come in. She was
Speaker 2: as surprised as anybody.
Speaker 1: Whatever she decides. When I think when she first came
Speaker 1: to Congress, she was clearly one of the best communicators
Speaker 1: in terms of how you communicate, Like she understood the
Speaker 1: modern media environment better than almost anyone in Congress, which
Speaker 1: is not saying a ton but you know, she's doing
Speaker 1: Instagram live, she's on social media. She knows how to
Speaker 1: do it. But I think in the last couple of
Speaker 1: years she's also become the best, one of the best
Speaker 1: messengers in the party. Like about what she actually says
Speaker 1: like is very it's very powerful.
Speaker 2: And her she came there, she was the youngest woman
Speaker 2: ever elected to the House. I think we've watched her
Speaker 2: mature as a political leader during those eight years. I
Speaker 2: think that process is ongoing, you know, and I think
Speaker 2: she knows that too. But she's an impressive person. The
Speaker 2: reason that she is so good, Yes, she knows how
Speaker 2: to use social media and modern media. But the thing
Speaker 2: that you can't teach and the thing you can't buy,
Speaker 2: is the ability to communicate authentically and to give people
Speaker 2: a sense that you're talking honestly with them. That's what great,
Speaker 2: great political leaders do, and she has that quality. So
Speaker 2: that's a hell of a thing to build on.
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Speaker 1: M All right, let's let's watch some other people see
Speaker 1: what it suits you think about. I'm gonna start with
Speaker 1: John asoff who may or may not run for presidenty,
Speaker 1: but he's only has to win re election to Georgia. First,
Speaker 1: let's take a look at one of his recent rally is.
Speaker 8: How does American politics really work? It's coin operated money,
Speaker 8: goes in, favors come out. It's been running on secret money,
Speaker 8: corporate money, billionaire money. Both sides, both sides, Citizens United.
Speaker 8: Was the worst court decision in modern American history.
Speaker 2: From my Hymn book there, Yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker 1: What do you think about him as a communicator?
Speaker 2: You know, he's a great communicator. I haven't seen him
Speaker 2: as most of the time when I see him, he's
Speaker 2: behind a podium. Uh. And you know there are other
Speaker 2: elements of communication, and I haven't seen a lot of that.
Speaker 2: Although I just spoke to someone someone you and I
Speaker 2: both know who saw him at an event. You may
Speaker 2: have been at the same event because I think it
Speaker 2: was out West, and said he was really really good
Speaker 2: and kind of off the cuff interaction with people and
Speaker 2: so on. Listen, I take him seriously, you know, if
Speaker 2: you if you believe what I said earlier about the
Speaker 2: kind of candidate who will do well, he checks a
Speaker 2: lot of those boxes and he hasn't been even though
Speaker 2: he is a senator, he has not been there long
Speaker 2: enough to be sort of corrupted in people's minds as
Speaker 2: a kind of fact, as a practitioner of inside the
Speaker 2: beltwegh politics, which he is not. So you know, I
Speaker 2: mean as a quick turnaround, he's young, but I think
Speaker 2: youth also is an advantage in this election because after
Speaker 2: two presidents who were in their eighties, I think people
Speaker 2: are going to be really looking for a more youthful candidate.
Speaker 1: You raise an interesting point, because I think he is
Speaker 1: the best speech giver that I've seen in a while.
Speaker 1: He you know, there's a whole generation of politicians sort
Speaker 1: of raised on Obama who speak like Obama, and I
Speaker 1: think he does the best. Like you can see it
Speaker 1: in the tone. You know, he has some of the
Speaker 1: same pause, as the same cadence, but it doesn't look
Speaker 1: like Obama karaoke, which something.
Speaker 2: Apparently Yeah, yeah, we've seen that too. He apparently does
Speaker 2: a lot of writing, you know, Obama. You know, he
Speaker 2: had great speech writers. You work with some of them,
Speaker 2: but they would tell you that, you know, they would
Speaker 2: give him a product that was in good shape and
Speaker 2: then he would buff it up or add things that
Speaker 2: took it from one level to the next. And he
Speaker 2: because of that, he was familiar, he felt organic to
Speaker 2: the copy he was reading. So I think he has
Speaker 2: he has that. But the other thing that people don't
Speaker 2: appreciate about Obama, and you would because you travel around
Speaker 2: with him, like you know those eighty seven days we
Speaker 2: spent in Iowa where he was you know, doing six
Speaker 2: eight you know, stops a day more, even in small venues,
Speaker 2: interacting with people. He was very good at that. You know,
Speaker 2: you have to Running for president is a decathlon. It's
Speaker 2: not just one event. So you can be great at
Speaker 2: you know, pole vaulting, but you still have to you know,
Speaker 2: throw the javelin. And so the test of campaigns is
Speaker 2: how do you do all do you do all the
Speaker 2: events well enough to win? So I don't know that
Speaker 2: about us off, but he's certainly a promising, promising politician.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to see him, you know, I mean
Speaker 1: this is a very selfer refar. I want to say,
Speaker 1: but like, what, like, can you pass the podcast test?
Speaker 1: Can he sitting like shoot, like I was just watching
Speaker 1: a clip of a bomb. Well, I mean, well he's
Speaker 1: been on our podcast. He's done fine. But it's like,
Speaker 1: it's not really, can you come on positive America, hacks
Speaker 1: on topics, can you go on Rogan or all? You
Speaker 1: can you relate to people on a cultural, personal level,
Speaker 1: that's not just politics.
Speaker 2: The test that Vice President Harris wouldn't take.
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, all right, let's do the next one is
Speaker 1: some unfamiliar to all of us. Pete, But to judge
Speaker 1: there is.
Speaker 9: A powerful American majority for change and for the things
Speaker 9: we believe in, because right now you got this administration
Speaker 9: that's created the illusion that their positions are supported by
Speaker 9: most Americans, and it's just not true. Most Americans agree
Speaker 9: that we should be taxing the wealthy more, not giving
Speaker 9: giant task cuts to billion Most Americans think it is
Speaker 9: no that we're being told we can't have nice things
Speaker 9: like rural hospitals and good roads and fully funded public schools.
Speaker 9: At the same time that you've got billionaires paying a
Speaker 9: lower tax rate than the nurses in those hospitals and
Speaker 9: the workers who work on those roads, and the teachers
Speaker 9: who teach in those schools.
Speaker 2: What do you make a peek well look in many
Speaker 2: I've said this before. He is as bright and thoughtful
Speaker 2: as anybody I've I've seen since Barack Obama in terms
Speaker 2: of his ability to sort of think in interesting ways
Speaker 2: and positive arguments in ways that really are clear and thoughtful.
Speaker 2: And he's he's a very very talented guy. And I
Speaker 2: really I like him a lot. I mean, and I
Speaker 2: think he's underrated in this, you know. I mean when
Speaker 2: you hear conversations, he's not people don't talk about him,
Speaker 2: but you know, every time you look at a poll
Speaker 2: and some of its name recognition, yes, but he's he's
Speaker 2: well regarded by Democrats, and the things he's articulating out
Speaker 2: there kind of they square up with some of the
Speaker 2: things I'm saying. He's talking about renewal, not restoration. He's
Speaker 2: talking about reform, you know, like basic fundamental reforms. You know. Now,
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know whether experience of the Biden
Speaker 2: administration is advantageous or not. Maybe not.
Speaker 1: I guess net neutral at best, my guess.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I wonder. I haven't never had this conversation
Speaker 2: with him, whether if he had to do it all
Speaker 2: over again, whether he would have opted for that he
Speaker 2: might be in better position than he was. You know,
Speaker 2: there's always this question about an openly gay man running.
Speaker 2: Is America Wave for that. And look, the one thing
Speaker 2: that he did not prove in twenty twenty was that
Speaker 2: he could win black votes. And that is a really
Speaker 2: essential task for anybody to get through this process. You know,
Speaker 2: Black voters in the South in particular are really really important.
Speaker 2: And so you know, there are there are questions, but
Speaker 2: the talent is is undeniable. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think PiZZ and Chrop is smart. I saw him
Speaker 1: an event recently and he just he's so good off
Speaker 1: the coff He's so good answering questions.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he does the pod, he passes the pod.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all those things. The thing that was always the
Speaker 1: I think, not like the black voters is like the
Speaker 1: mass you can't it's just im you can't win the
Speaker 1: math as such, with primaries across the South, the way
Speaker 1: delegates rellocated, there's no way to do it. That's why
Speaker 1: Obama one, It's why Hillary. But the thing about Pete's
Speaker 1: communication in twenty twenty was it always felt to me
Speaker 1: like a little bit at a remove, like he was
Speaker 1: so good and so polished that you know, it's just
Speaker 1: like there was this distance between.
Speaker 2: I think, really, I think it's an important observation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I will say when he was on CNBC
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago and he was arguing with Joe
Speaker 1: cernin I thought it was some of the best people
Speaker 1: Like people will go on He'll he'll get every word
Speaker 1: exactly right on Fox News and he'll stuff shun handing
Speaker 1: into a verbial locker or whatever else, and it's incredible.
Speaker 1: But he when he was almost Joe Curna, like, he
Speaker 1: showed like a real he was so frustrated and so
Speaker 1: angered by the stupidity of in the unfairness of what
Speaker 1: Crinan was saying that it was really was like a
Speaker 1: that was one of his most authentic moments. I thought
Speaker 1: it was quite quite good and I think maybe indicative,
Speaker 1: Like his life has changed a lot since twenty twenty. Right,
Speaker 1: He's had he's got married, he's got kids, he's like
Speaker 1: been he's been through times, and so I think, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I'll I'll be very interested to see how
Speaker 1: he's involved Candida this time around, because if so, he
Speaker 1: was real potential and he benefits from the fact the
Speaker 1: New Hampshire is probably the first state and it's a
Speaker 1: place where he has a great base of strength.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and continues to poll well, uh, don't underestimate the
Speaker 2: value of having run the track before. You know, he knows,
Speaker 2: or just to use another sports analogy, he knows the
Speaker 2: lay of the Greens. And running for president is not
Speaker 2: like running for any other office. So he knows the
Speaker 2: pressures of it, he knows the cadence of it. He knows,
Speaker 2: he knows this stuff. That is a valuable asset.
Speaker 1: All right, let's look at Andy Basher, the governor of Kentucky.
Speaker 6: You've seen how some of this speak has crept into
Speaker 6: the Democratic Party, and we sound like we're talking down
Speaker 6: to people. We've got to talk to people and not
Speaker 6: at them. You know, Kentucky got hit by that opioid
Speaker 6: epidemic as hard as anybody, but maybe West Virginia. I mean,
Speaker 6: we've all lost people we love and care about. I
Speaker 6: didn't lose one to substance use disorder. I lost them
Speaker 6: all to addiction. If we want to push back against
Speaker 6: this president and what he's doing to snap, trying to
Speaker 6: hold hungry people hostage for political gain, it can't be
Speaker 6: that they'll be food insecurity. It's got to be that
Speaker 6: they'll go hungry. We got to communicate to people in
Speaker 6: the values that they know and how they would talk
Speaker 6: to each other.
Speaker 1: Electability is obviously going to be a huge issue for Democrats,
Speaker 1: as it was in twenty twenty. No one has a
Speaker 1: better electability story than Yeah, this year, what do you
Speaker 1: make of him?
Speaker 2: Look, I mean, again, going back to the things I
Speaker 2: told you before, I mean, you have to look at
Speaker 2: him because he's an outsider. He's also a guy who,
Speaker 2: by the way, can go into those black churches and
Speaker 2: in a compelling way, and you know, and in terms
Speaker 2: of empathy, most of the time when we've seen him
Speaker 2: over the last eight years, it's because his state has
Speaker 2: been beset by some natural disaster or you know, in
Speaker 2: some cases a horrific gun incident. And he's really really
Speaker 2: good at that. He's great at expressing empathy. I sort
Speaker 2: of agree with what he said there. The thing I
Speaker 2: would say is, it's not just about the language that
Speaker 2: we use. It's about and I've said this a lot
Speaker 2: of times, my objection to Democrats since the Democrat Party
Speaker 2: has become a kind of metropolitan, college educated party is
Speaker 2: we're still a party of working people, or see us
Speaker 2: see ourselves that way. But we approach them like missionaries
Speaker 2: and anthropologists, and we show up and we say we're
Speaker 2: here to help you become more like us, And the
Speaker 2: implied message is that what you do really isn't as
Speaker 2: important as what we do, except dan when we have
Speaker 2: a pandemic, and then we're home and we're making our
Speaker 2: living on our computer, and they're out there caring for us,
Speaker 2: protecting us, making things, shipping things, and doing everything it
Speaker 2: takes to keep the country going. And then we go
Speaker 2: out on our balconies and we bang our pots and
Speaker 2: we say you're the essential worker until the pandemic's over,
Speaker 2: and then they sort of become invisible again. So I
Speaker 2: think it's more. It's about more than just the language.
Speaker 2: We fundamentally have to think about how we value people
Speaker 2: in our society.
Speaker 1: All right, last one we'll do is penns Vania Governor
Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro.
Speaker 10: We have an opportunity to have a real debate within
Speaker 10: our party about what we stand for, about what our
Speaker 10: affirmative vision is. It has to be about what we
Speaker 10: are going to do to make people's lives better. And
Speaker 10: I think that that is a debate that our party
Speaker 10: hasn't had for a good long while, and that debate
Speaker 10: is not only going to help the Democratic Party. I
Speaker 10: think it's going to be healthy for this country. And
Speaker 10: what I can tell you for sure is that I
Speaker 10: want to be a part of that debate, bring the
Speaker 10: common sense, sensibility of what we do in Pennsylvania to
Speaker 10: that conversation.
Speaker 1: Lake Bashir Shapiro has won the key sat of Pennslvania.
Speaker 1: He's likely going to win it again by a very
Speaker 1: large margin, which will boltar Reo selectability case. What do
Speaker 1: you make Shapiro look?
Speaker 2: He's a very talented and very smart and what he
Speaker 2: said I obviously I obviously agree with. He's one of
Speaker 2: the guys who he can slide into sort of pigeon
Speaker 2: Obama from time to time, and he's taken a lot
Speaker 2: of criticism for it. He can be a little irascible,
Speaker 2: and for him, I think the important thing is to
Speaker 2: be real. He's so smart and politically savvy that sometimes
Speaker 2: you feel like he's giving the politically savvy, well manicured
Speaker 2: answer and you don't know what you don't see the
Speaker 2: person behind it. So those would be the concerns that
Speaker 2: I'd raised. But look, I thought, you know, I thought
Speaker 2: he should have been the vice presidential candidate, and in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, probably good for him that he wasn't,
Speaker 2: but I think highly of him, and he's got some
Speaker 2: good stories to tell. That story about the sort of
Speaker 2: wreck pace at which they repaired the fallen bridge in
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania is a metaphor for something that Democrats need to
Speaker 2: struggle with is if you're the party of government, how
Speaker 2: do you assure people that government can work? And he's
Speaker 2: got some examples to underscore. He also Dan has he's
Speaker 2: forged a relationship with working class voters and rural communities
Speaker 2: in his state. You know, I think he does approach
Speaker 2: those voters respectfully and has built alliances there that I
Speaker 2: think is very useful and important and instructive. So you know, again,
Speaker 2: you've got a good assortment there. I know what, you
Speaker 2: only have a short period of time, so you can't
Speaker 2: put all one hundred and six aspirants up there, but
Speaker 2: that's a pretty strong assortment of Canaida.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know this Shapiro, It's probably not discussed enough
Speaker 1: how popular he is in Pennsylvania. Being a popular governor
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is not an easy thing to do. This is
Speaker 1: a state at the Donald try is one twice it
Speaker 1: has moved away from Democrats as we we have moved
Speaker 1: away from Pennsylvania demographically as a party, he he basically
Speaker 1: has a coalition that combines the New versus the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party with his college educated suburbanites outside of the color
Speaker 1: counties around Philadelphia, with some of the numbers that Democrats
Speaker 1: like Obama and Clinton had in the rural parts of
Speaker 1: the state in the great, the great expanse between Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: and between Philly and Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: And let me ask let me ask you a question.
Speaker 2: And based on you know your you've got your finger
Speaker 2: on the pulse of of of the left and the party.
Speaker 2: You know, the question that comes up oftentimes from Jews
Speaker 2: and I'm Jewish, is well, kind of can a Jew
Speaker 2: get elected given the antipathy toward Israel now and now
Speaker 2: he's been a very strong critic of bb NET and Yaho.
Speaker 2: But how big an issue is that?
Speaker 3: Do you?
Speaker 2: I think that's an insuperable barrier for democratic canis. I don't,
Speaker 2: but but you would know better.
Speaker 1: I don't believe being Jewish as it is a barrier
Speaker 1: that cannot be overcome for democratic candidate. I think that
Speaker 1: any Democratic cant is going to have to have a
Speaker 1: vociferous criticism of the net Yahu government is going to
Speaker 1: have to take very strong positions that would have seemed
Speaker 1: impossible a few years ago about conditions on aid to Israel,
Speaker 1: about funding the Golden Dome. I mean, even are you're
Speaker 1: very you're close friend, my old boss rom Emmanuel came
Speaker 1: out suggesting he would not be for that. Like I think,
Speaker 1: what you cannot be seen. You don't want to be
Speaker 1: seen in a democratic primary as the pro net Yahoo
Speaker 1: candidate or the APAC candidate, or someone who's associated with
Speaker 1: the Biden's administration's position or policy on Gaza. So I
Speaker 1: think he can do it, but it's gonna those are
Speaker 1: gonna be tricky waters for him to navigate, given some
Speaker 1: of the ways in which he's approsed those issues in
Speaker 1: his past. Well, let me say he's the change is
Speaker 1: rhet eric and recent. You know, yeah, well, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know one thing you said quite a agree with.
Speaker 1: The attitudes have shifted in ways we wouldn't have predicted,
Speaker 1: because BB has done things we never would have you know, predicted,
Speaker 1: perhaps we could ever should have, but his the way
Speaker 1: he prosecuted.
Speaker 2: The war in Gaza. You know, I say this as
Speaker 2: as a Jew. It's you know, I was horrified and
Speaker 2: angered by what happened on October seventh. But that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean that I don't grieve for the children of Gaza
Speaker 2: and that I'm not repulsed by the way that that unfolded.
Speaker 2: And I don't think you're going to find candidate's Jewish
Speaker 2: or not who who don't agree with that. One interesting
Speaker 2: thing is that they have an election in Israel in
Speaker 2: October bb and new may be gone by the time
Speaker 2: this campaign begins in earnest, and you wonder whether whether
Speaker 2: that changes anything.
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, it's a very open question of what
Speaker 1: the world will look like when these candidates actually have
Speaker 1: to go get votes in New Hampshire whatever other states.
Speaker 1: In the early part of the calendar in early twenty
Speaker 1: twenty eight, I did not play a clip from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: If you had asked me two or three months ago,
Speaker 1: I would have put the strong odds against her running.
Speaker 1: I think in the recent months she's been out there more,
Speaker 1: she's been doing more things that suggest that maybe she's
Speaker 1: seriously thinking about running. What do you make of that?
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of it. I mean,
Speaker 2: she obviously is making noises as if she's going to run,
Speaker 2: and you know, once you run for president, especially when
Speaker 2: you come as close as she did, especially under the circumstances.
Speaker 2: She did very hard to look around and say why
Speaker 2: not me? But I also don't think America is going
Speaker 2: to and Democrats are going going to ultimately go for
Speaker 2: the back to the future candidate. You know, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of there are a lot of seared memories of
Speaker 2: twenty four and a lot of it don't have to
Speaker 2: do with her, but with her boss, you know, in
Speaker 2: the White House. But you know, it didn't end well.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of Democrats who were hoping that
Speaker 2: it would, and part of it did have to do
Speaker 2: with her inability or reluctance to do the things that
Speaker 2: you have to do at that level. You know, go
Speaker 2: on those podcasts, be real, be open, and of course
Speaker 2: the answer on the view under the withering interrogation of
Speaker 2: the of the people on the view to not be
Speaker 2: able to answer the question that I think any sort
Speaker 2: of competent candidate for at any level would know how
Speaker 2: to answer when asked, did you you know, is there
Speaker 2: anything you would have done differently? She didn't have to
Speaker 2: say yes these things. She could have said, I'm grateful
Speaker 2: for the opportunity gave me. I'm not going to critique
Speaker 2: him here. I'm here to tell you I'm not running
Speaker 2: for the to be the second term of Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: running to be the first term of Kamala Harrison. I'll
Speaker 2: tell you what I'm going to do. I mean, there
Speaker 2: are a million ways to have answered that question. She
Speaker 2: just couldn't find any of them. And those are the
Speaker 2: moments that define campaigns.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know it's from her perspective right as you
Speaker 1: came very close. You know, she believes, as in many
Speaker 1: people in the campaign, that given more time, she might
Speaker 1: have actually won that race, or if she had not
Speaker 1: been thrust it, if she had a chance to actually
Speaker 1: just not run at all and she'd want a primary,
Speaker 1: she could have maybe actually won. Know, way didn't answer
Speaker 1: that counterfactual, but you look at you know, one way.
Speaker 1: She's leading in all the polls right now. And now
Speaker 1: you and I know and everyone knows that oftentimes the
Speaker 1: person leading in the polls at the beginning is leading
Speaker 1: by dint of name recognition and nothing else, and that
Speaker 1: falls pretty quickly, like I did for Rudy Giuliani in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, Joe Lieberman in two thousand and four.
Speaker 1: But it still is true that you're not winning the
Speaker 1: Democratic nomination without running up the score with black voters
Speaker 1: across the South. And you look at that field right now,
Speaker 1: and she's the candidate best position to do that. So
Speaker 1: you could she could make an argument to herself about
Speaker 1: how she could win that nomination. Now the question will be,
Speaker 1: you know. And this was I think the experience John
Speaker 1: Carry had when he was thinking of running again in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, as he was all ready to go,
Speaker 1: picked up the phone, started calling all his old supporter
Speaker 1: and they were like, and Donory, I'm with Biden, I'm
Speaker 1: with that, I'm with Hillary, I'm with O Momma, with Edwards.
Speaker 1: And she might have a similar you know.
Speaker 2: I don't know, and not just probably, you know, from
Speaker 2: what I understand, not just not just supporters and donors,
Speaker 2: but even some key staff. You know. Look, I respect her,
Speaker 2: and she got thrust into a really difficult position, but
Speaker 2: I just don't see this. And I yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: I do think she's the beneficiary of early name recognition
Speaker 2: on this issue. She she may well do, you know,
Speaker 2: really well with African American voters in the South. But
Speaker 2: I keep thinking back to twenty nineteen when she was
Speaker 2: a co front runner with Joe Biden when she entered
Speaker 2: the race, and she never made it to Iowa, and
Speaker 2: her numbers in those southern states weren't that good. So
Speaker 2: I don't know, I uh, it's you know, there's one.
Speaker 2: I just don't have enough information to note. But I
Speaker 2: don't think I think she's going to receive some tough,
Speaker 2: tough news from some of the people whose support perhaps
Speaker 2: she was counting on anyone.
Speaker 1: I didn't mention that you have your eye on.
Speaker 2: Actually, it's kind of uncanny because you you you listed
Speaker 2: a bunch of folks who you know. Look, I got
Speaker 2: two guys from Illinois, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna I was looking for a good
Speaker 1: Rom clip to play at the end for you. But
Speaker 1: I don't want look.
Speaker 2: Look Rom Rom. You know, I would say that Gavin
Speaker 2: knew Some won the presidential primary of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: I think Rom is doing pretty well in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 2: at least with opinion elites. I mean, he's he's he's
Speaker 2: throwing out a bunch of ideas. He's really aggressive, you know,
Speaker 2: and we'll see where that takes him. Governor Pritsker is
Speaker 2: running for re election, but it seems pretty clear to
Speaker 2: me that he's headed in that direction, and he's shown
Speaker 2: a lot more serious political chops than I would have
Speaker 2: expected when he first ran for office. He's and he
Speaker 2: does have affection among some among the Democratic base. You
Speaker 2: probably hear it in your own And he's got obviously
Speaker 2: he's got the advantage of resources. So you know, I
Speaker 2: wouldn't draw him out of the out of the circle.
Speaker 2: You know, rumors emanate from Washington at Corey Booker might
Speaker 2: run again. He didn't do that well in twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: but he's got talents, he's got gifts, and in an
Speaker 2: election that may be about sort of character and kind
Speaker 2: of you know, to borrow Biden's phrase, though no one
Speaker 2: should use it, the soul of America, which honestly is
Speaker 2: going to be important in twenty twenty eight. You know,
Speaker 2: he's he's a guy who can speak to that. But
Speaker 2: I you know, I don't know if he can, you know,
Speaker 2: do appreciably better than he did. But I'm also like
Speaker 2: open to someone we haven't you know, someone coming from
Speaker 2: somewhere we don't even know. Like I said, this is
Speaker 2: this is a thing an election that's grooved for an outsider.
Speaker 2: And it may be you know, you hear about Mark Cuban,
Speaker 2: you hear other people mention, So who knows? Who knows?
Speaker 2: I remember calling John Stewart. And in twenty nineteen, after
Speaker 2: Zelensky got elected President of Ukraine, Beef Zelensky became, you know,
Speaker 2: the wartime leader, the Churchill of our time. Uh. And
Speaker 2: I said to John, John, you know, short Jewish comedians,
Speaker 2: they're all the rage right now. Uh. So you know,
Speaker 2: don't don't count him out.
Speaker 1: All right, That's I think it's a great place to
Speaker 1: leave it. John Stewart for President Rod thanks for joining us.
Speaker 2: Always great to see in Chicago.
Speaker 1: Absolutely thanks.
Speaker 7: Dan.
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