1 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: What's going on? Thank you so much for listening to 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,640 this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon 3 00:00:09,679 --> 00:00:12,519 to three on WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,719 want exclusive content like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,239 my daily show prep with all the links, become a patron, 6 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,600 go to dpeakclendershow dot com. Make sure you hit the 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,160 subscribe button. Get every episode for free right to your 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,719 smartphone or tablet. And again, thank you so much for 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:32,880 your support. We always chat with Andrew Dunn at this 10 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,520 time and we will do so again today. It's Andrew Dunn. 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,000 He is the publisher of long Leaf Politics. He is 12 00:00:38,039 --> 00:00:41,439 also a contributing columnist over at the Charlotte Observer. Andrew, 13 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:42,399 how are you today, sir. 14 00:00:43,679 --> 00:00:46,119 Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Good to be with you. I also 15 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,719 want to say thank you and Happy Veterans Day to 16 00:00:48,799 --> 00:00:50,200 your listeners who have served. 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: It's not a contest, Andrew's okay, I already said it. 18 00:00:54,399 --> 00:00:57,079 Speaker 2: Okay, you did, but I wanted to say it. 19 00:00:57,439 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: No, that's fine. So last Tuesday when we spoke, the 20 00:01:02,039 --> 00:01:07,359 election was underway, and in the evening you apparently made 21 00:01:07,359 --> 00:01:11,640 your way over to Selwyn pub where Republicans have traditionally 22 00:01:11,799 --> 00:01:15,439 hung out and watched the returns come in, and they 23 00:01:15,439 --> 00:01:18,560 were there again. And you have a quote from Pat 24 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:23,480 McCrory as you were watching the carnage on the computer screens, 25 00:01:24,519 --> 00:01:30,799 he said, this city's changed a lot. And then you 26 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,959 say in your piece at the Charlotte Observer, the only 27 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,120 explanation appears to be a reaction to President Donald Trump, 28 00:01:36,159 --> 00:01:39,760 with suburban voter sending a clear no that washed straight 29 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:44,040 through a municipal ballot. So when I read those two things, 30 00:01:44,719 --> 00:01:46,920 did I read this wrong? But it sounds like those 31 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:50,680 two things are in conflict, Like he said, the city 32 00:01:50,719 --> 00:01:57,760 has changed a lot? Or is it a repudiation of Trump? 33 00:01:57,920 --> 00:01:59,439 Or I think is ed when Peacock called it a 34 00:01:59,439 --> 00:02:03,120 Trump labd Yes, Are those things at odds or or 35 00:02:03,159 --> 00:02:03,879 am I off on that? 36 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 3: No? 37 00:02:05,719 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 2: I don't think they're necessarily in conflict, but I think 38 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,599 it does reflect two different things that are happening. 39 00:02:12,039 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 3: You know. 40 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 2: One, you know, Charlotte is a rapidly fast growing city 41 00:02:15,439 --> 00:02:17,680 and we are getting a lot of folks coming in 42 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,080 from out of state who are bringing their politics with them. 43 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,360 At the same time, I also think we're seeing a 44 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:28,240 change in voting behavior, you know, in these off year 45 00:02:28,319 --> 00:02:31,360 municipal elections. You know, for a long time, we've seen 46 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,120 a distinct difference that voters are willing to look at 47 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,280 Democrats and look at Republicans in the context of their 48 00:02:39,319 --> 00:02:42,479 positions on issues locally, and I just didn't see any 49 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,360 evidence of that at all this year. It's really the 50 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:49,280 first time where the only explanation for what's happened seems 51 00:02:49,319 --> 00:02:52,280 to be national issues kind of percolating their way down 52 00:02:52,319 --> 00:02:53,199 to the local level. 53 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 1: So, because I got to tell you, when I heard 54 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,319 Edwin Peacock say that, the first thought I had was 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,240 that seems like an awfully con union thing to say. 56 00:03:01,759 --> 00:03:05,280 So it's not on you, you know, as a candidate or 57 00:03:05,439 --> 00:03:10,199 maybe a poor campaign, although Peacock raised a whole bunch 58 00:03:10,199 --> 00:03:12,879 of money for his campaign, but he also lost his 59 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,759 at large bid back in two thousand and nine. Right, So, 60 00:03:16,479 --> 00:03:19,639 like the city hasn't sent a Republican to an at 61 00:03:19,719 --> 00:03:26,199 large seat in Charlotte for what ten years, fifteen years now, 62 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,439 So I don't know. Also, you got a lot of 63 00:03:29,479 --> 00:03:32,520 Republicans that have fled the area over the last twenty 64 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,319 five years. As you know, these Chamber pushed projects, the 65 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,919 Center City Partner pushed projects of the arena and the 66 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,120 light rail and the NASCAR Hall of Fame and all 67 00:03:43,159 --> 00:03:45,039 of these other things that you know, made us quote 68 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,000 unquote world class, and a lot of Republicans who fought 69 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,719 that stuff they just left. They went to all of 70 00:03:50,759 --> 00:03:55,120 the surrounding counties. So was that really a nationalization of 71 00:03:55,159 --> 00:03:58,319 the politics or is that there just aren't any Republicans 72 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:01,560 left because they got so fed up with publicans doing 73 00:04:01,599 --> 00:04:04,120 these types of projects. 74 00:04:05,319 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a fair pushback. And I you know, 75 00:04:08,599 --> 00:04:12,879 I don't think you can attribute Edwin Peacock's loss just 76 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,560 to a Trump lash. You know, perhaps you could say 77 00:04:15,599 --> 00:04:19,120 the margin was impacted by that. I think where it 78 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,480 really shows up is in District six, the Christa Bakari race. 79 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,120 I mean what, I don't think all those things you 80 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:30,360 just described can account for, you know, for Tark Bakari 81 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,040 winning by a couple hundred votes two years ago to 82 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,920 Christa losing by what almost four thousand votes in two 83 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,240 years without having some of these other issues at play. 84 00:04:41,519 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: You had another quote or another line in the piece 85 00:04:43,959 --> 00:04:47,319 at the Observer, Voters in and around Charlotte used local 86 00:04:47,399 --> 00:04:50,160 levers to make a national statement that's why District six 87 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,839 fell that's why the school board lost its last Republican vote. 88 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,160 I would also throw into the mix Democrats have a 89 00:04:57,319 --> 00:05:02,439 history of voting for like guys like Jim Black, even 90 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,920 like they would rather put a crook back into a 91 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,560 state House spot rather than elect I think his name 92 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,279 was Hal Jordan rather than vote for a Republican they 93 00:05:12,319 --> 00:05:15,720 will send the corrupt guy back as well, so I think. 94 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,680 But again, like and these are the city council race 95 00:05:18,759 --> 00:05:22,480 was partisan, the school board was nonpartisan. But I mean 96 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,600 that's just name only. You know, the parties put out 97 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:29,399 their palm cards and stuff for everybody to know who's 98 00:05:29,439 --> 00:05:31,519 a Democrat, who's a Republican, and that sort of thing. 99 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,759 And then you also had a was this a dig 100 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,560 at Driggs? You said he tends to go along with 101 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,040 vy Lyles the mayor, so there's functionally no longer a 102 00:05:45,079 --> 00:05:47,759 conservative voice of accountability at the dais. 103 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think you could certainly read it 104 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,800 that way, Okay, right, I was. 105 00:05:54,759 --> 00:05:56,639 Speaker 1: Just checking because I read that. I was like, oh, 106 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,319 Andrew with a well, and I have heard the same thing. 107 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,160 I have heard the same thing about Ed Driggs being 108 00:06:02,199 --> 00:06:04,600 part because I like my view on the city council 109 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,600 is basically you've got two voting blocks there and one 110 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:10,959 is you know, whipped by the mayor. Uh. And then 111 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,399 you've got sort of this dissident block and that's you know, 112 00:06:14,439 --> 00:06:18,920 Renee Johnson Victoria Wattlington and they don't have the votes 113 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,920 yet to do stuff. And you know, Drake's goes with 114 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,360 the mayor on a lot of those votes. So and 115 00:06:26,399 --> 00:06:29,439 I thought that's what Peacock was kind of positioning himself 116 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,600 for as well. How he got the you know, how 117 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,199 he got the appointment onto District six before this election too. 118 00:06:35,519 --> 00:06:37,319 But anyway, so that's that's. 119 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,639 Speaker 2: That's not necessarily a bad thing. I mean, it is. 120 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,959 It is sometimes when we're talking about issues of transparency 121 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,839 with you know, with some of these settlements that we've had. 122 00:06:44,879 --> 00:06:47,839 But oftentimes, you know, Mayor Lyles is on the on 123 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,439 the right side of things as more of your more 124 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:54,839 traditional pro business, moderate ish type politician. 125 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,079 Speaker 1: Have you ever heard the saying that there are three 126 00:06:57,199 --> 00:07:01,600 parties in Charlotte the Democrats or not. Okay, so this 127 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,279 was the common axiom about twenty twenty five years ago. 128 00:07:07,199 --> 00:07:10,160 They would tell me that there are three parties, the Democrats, 129 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,319 the Republicans, and the Chamber, and the chambers the most powerful, 130 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,600 and I just and over the years, I just wonder 131 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,639 if the Chamber fed the alligator hoping you would eat 132 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,199 it last, you know, And I don't know if it's 133 00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:27,560 got that same kind of pull anymore. If you've got 134 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,040 like the Council now in this kind of voting block 135 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:35,399 split where half of them might not be Chamber voters. 136 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's in a stude observation, I would 137 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,879 absolutely agree that the Chamber has lost a lot of 138 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:43,680 influence over the past ten years. 139 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So let's talk a little bit about 140 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:51,079 your predictions, because it's never too early to talk about, 141 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,480 never the next election, and you talk a little bit 142 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,959 about your predictions based on the Civitas Partisan Index. We're 143 00:07:58,959 --> 00:08:01,519 actually going to talk to Andy Jackson from the John 144 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,120 Locke Foundation at twelve thirty to go into some of 145 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:10,399 these numbers. But you you say that we are kind 146 00:08:10,399 --> 00:08:14,680 of sort of maybe looking at a blue wave election 147 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,160 based on the CPI data. 148 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm glad you're going to have Andy Jackson on. 149 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:25,040 He's amazing, And this Civitas Partisan Index is kind of 150 00:08:25,079 --> 00:08:29,920 a gold standard for understanding general Assembly elections. And you 151 00:08:29,959 --> 00:08:31,680 know the reason why I say it's kind of going 152 00:08:31,759 --> 00:08:33,799 to be a blue wave. I think it will be. 153 00:08:33,919 --> 00:08:36,759 I think Democrats will pick up seats, but I don't 154 00:08:36,759 --> 00:08:39,240 think it's going to be a twenty eighteen style wave 155 00:08:39,279 --> 00:08:41,919 where we were looking at ten seats flipped in the 156 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,720 House and six in the Senate. And that's just because 157 00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:49,240 there's fewer actual battleground type districts left to flip. You know, 158 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:53,879 twenty eighteen is when the suburban Charlotte districts went from 159 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,360 red to blue, and those never went back. So you know, 160 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,720 those are just not in play anymore because those are 161 00:08:59,759 --> 00:09:00,960 just Democrat districts. 162 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:01,159 Speaker 3: Now. 163 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, you're also going to have a Senate race at 164 00:09:03,639 --> 00:09:05,919 the top of the ticket there that's going to motivate people. 165 00:09:05,919 --> 00:09:09,039 You got congressional races as well that are going to 166 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,440 motivate more turnout. And one of the things that I heard, 167 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,600 you know you've heard of Scott Presler. He does a 168 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,519 lot of yeah, get up the vote registration stuff for 169 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,039 the Republicans. And I saw an interview he did with 170 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:25,679 Sean Spicer, former White House Press Secretary, Yeah, and he 171 00:09:25,799 --> 00:09:27,679 was talking about all the work that they were doing 172 00:09:27,759 --> 00:09:30,919 ahead of this last election in Virginia and New Jersey, 173 00:09:30,919 --> 00:09:34,639 mainly in New Jersey, I think, And he was like, 174 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,919 MAGA did not turn out, just like the Republicans turned out, 175 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:43,960 but MAGA did not. And I don't know how Republicans 176 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,679 motivate MAGA voters when Trump is not on the ticket, do. 177 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: You, Yeah, I don't know. It's really an interesting question. 178 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:58,399 You know, Historically in low turnout elections, Republicans have had 179 00:09:58,399 --> 00:10:02,200 the advantage because republic voters tended to be higher propensity, 180 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:03,480 you know, they'll always get out. 181 00:10:03,519 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 1: Well. 182 00:10:03,759 --> 00:10:07,639 Speaker 2: Democrats had lower propensity voters that really had to work 183 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:12,159 on turnout. Now it's the opposite. Republicans have the turnout problem, 184 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,679 and I don't know what the solution is. I mean, 185 00:10:14,879 --> 00:10:17,600 it does seem pretty clear at this point that there 186 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,600 is a block of Trump voters who are not Republican voters. 187 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,039 And I don't know if there's any real way to 188 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,919 convert Trump specific voters into Republican voters more broadly. 189 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's harder too. I know. Democrats built up an 190 00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:35,720 entire infrastructure around you know, voter registration and getting out 191 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:39,919 the vote, with all of their various activist organizations and such, 192 00:10:40,519 --> 00:10:44,039 but they're I mean just From a practical standpoint, it's 193 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,600 easier to go door to door and reach those voters 194 00:10:48,919 --> 00:10:52,600 in urban areas because people just live closer together. You 195 00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:56,000 can drop a couple of canvassers off, you know, and 196 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,720 they can hit a couple of hundred houses versus Maga 197 00:10:59,759 --> 00:11:02,080 kun tree, where you know, you may be going one 198 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,840 to two miles between homes and maybe getting shot out 199 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:08,519 while you come up the driveway. So I don't know 200 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,720 how you build that kind of infrastructure, unless maybe it's 201 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,120 all with text messaging. Now, lord knows, I'm getting a 202 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:14,399 ton of them. I don't know why. 203 00:11:14,759 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 2: It just yeah, all of a sudden, Oh boy, yeah, 204 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,039 I don't know. I don't know what the solution is. 205 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,360 I think part of the problem is that that President 206 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:26,639 Trump isn't necessarily as concerned with party building infrastructure building 207 00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:28,879 as a as a Reagan or a Jim Martin here 208 00:11:28,879 --> 00:11:30,080 in North Carolina where. 209 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,039 Speaker 1: Yeah, well you mentioned the low propensity party. That's what 210 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,080 Scott Presler said as well. He's like people need to 211 00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:38,639 understand that that that has flipped. So you echoed what 212 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,000 he said. But also he said Trump needs to stop 213 00:11:42,039 --> 00:11:45,080 telling people not to vote early, like you got to 214 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,559 get all of these votes banked, and you got to 215 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,120 be working for you know, the first month before the 216 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,879 election or that last month before the election. You got 217 00:11:52,919 --> 00:11:55,039 to be working on banking all of those votes as 218 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:59,440 early as possible, because the Democrats are just eating their 219 00:11:59,519 --> 00:12:03,679 lunch in a lot of these states. So maybe Trump. 220 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean, you can be philosophically 221 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,679 opposed to early voting, but it's not going anywhere anytime soon, 222 00:12:11,799 --> 00:12:15,200 so everybody should get on board. I always vote on 223 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,240 the first day of early voting, for what it's worth. 224 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: The only downside that I've ever heard about doing that, 225 00:12:20,919 --> 00:12:24,200 and I voted early most of the time, is that 226 00:12:24,279 --> 00:12:26,480 if some scandal breaks, you know, and I think the 227 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:30,039 j Jones text message scandal up in Virginia is a 228 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,559 pretty good example of that. You know, that oppo research 229 00:12:33,639 --> 00:12:37,320 or the story broke, I guess like three weeks before 230 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,799 the election, but so many people had already voted by that, Like, 231 00:12:40,879 --> 00:12:43,440 what do you do at that point? So maybe Europo 232 00:12:43,519 --> 00:12:45,799 dumps have to come earlier. Maybe that's w. 233 00:12:46,039 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's got to be a September surprises right 234 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:49,679 in October. 235 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,159 Speaker 1: One No more October surprise, is exactly right. You could 236 00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:55,440 read his work at long Leaf Politics. Long leafpol dot 237 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,480 com is the website subscribed to his newsletter. There. You 238 00:12:58,519 --> 00:13:00,720 can also read his work at The Charlotte Observe. He 239 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:03,519 is a contributing columnist, Andrew Dunn. Thanks again for your time, Andrew, 240 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,159 We appreciate it. 241 00:13:05,039 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 3: Yeah. 242 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:06,039 Speaker 2: Thanks, Pete. 243 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,879 Speaker 1: Here's a great idea. 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Call or 262 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,759 text eight two eight three six seven seventy sixty eight 263 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,200 or check out all there is to offer at Cabins 264 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,759 Offashville dot com and make memories that'll last a lifetime. 265 00:15:18,399 --> 00:15:21,759 All Right, Happy Veterans Day. That is, of course the 266 00:15:21,879 --> 00:15:24,399 US Air Force a song that's also known as the 267 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,279 Wild Blue Yonder Happy Veterans Day. On this eleventh of November. 268 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:34,360 I will be playing the other branches as bump tunes 269 00:15:34,399 --> 00:15:37,840 as well, so nobody feels left out on Veterans Day, 270 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,559 because you shouldn't. And that's the kind of guy I am. 271 00:15:41,759 --> 00:15:43,320 By the way, there was another piece we did not 272 00:15:43,399 --> 00:15:47,360 get to with Andrew that he wrote it the Charlotte Observer. 273 00:15:47,759 --> 00:15:50,200 But it's been a couple of days, well almost two 274 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:57,159 weeks now, about the budget stalemate in the legislature, and 275 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,440 he says like it's getting like they're getting drag the 276 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,559 Republicans are being dragged by Democrats and media. But I 277 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,000 repeat myself, like why could they pass a budget and 278 00:16:07,039 --> 00:16:09,519 all this? And he's like, I actually see a healthy debate, 279 00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:11,840 and it's the right kind of fight. And the sticking 280 00:16:11,879 --> 00:16:16,519 point is not pet projects or power plays. It's tax policy. 281 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:22,840 And there are two different arguments being made, and both 282 00:16:22,879 --> 00:16:27,519 of them are conservative arguments. And so that's that's where 283 00:16:27,639 --> 00:16:30,360 the jam is coming from. All right, if you're listening 284 00:16:30,399 --> 00:16:31,960 to this show, you know I try to keep up 285 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:33,759 with all sorts of current events, and I know you 286 00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:36,240 do too, and you've probably heard me say get your 287 00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:40,159 news from multiple sources. Why Well, because it's how you 288 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,200 detect media bias, which is why I've been so impressed 289 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,960 with ground News. It's an app and it's a website 290 00:16:47,039 --> 00:16:49,440 and it combines news from around the world in one 291 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,960 place so you can compare coverage and verify information. You 292 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,519 can check it out at check dot ground, dot news 293 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,919 slash pete. I put the link in the podcast description too. 294 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,799 I started using ground News a few months ago and 295 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,559 more recently chose to work with them as an affiliate 296 00:17:05,559 --> 00:17:08,880 because it lets me see clearly how stories get covered 297 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,880 and by whom. The blind spot feature shows you which 298 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,799 stories get ignored by the left and the right. See 299 00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:19,880 for yourself. Check dot Ground dot news slash pete. Subscribe 300 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,759 through that link and you'll get fifteen percent off any subscription. 301 00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:25,839 I use the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to 302 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,359 every feature. Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, 303 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,720 but it also supports Ground News as they make the 304 00:17:31,799 --> 00:17:35,519 media landscape more transparent. I want to welcome to the 305 00:17:35,559 --> 00:17:38,920 program doctor Andy Jackson. He is the director of the 306 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,759 Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation. Andy, 307 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:43,440 how are you. 308 00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 3: Ah doing great? I'm technically off today, but. 309 00:17:48,039 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, va to you. I'm so sorry. I 310 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:56,200 actually I'm not. I'm just I'm selfish like that. So 311 00:17:56,319 --> 00:18:00,079 the moment we have all been waiting for the cpi' 312 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,200 not the one that tells us how terrible the economy is. No, No, 313 00:18:03,319 --> 00:18:07,480 this is the Civitas Partisan Index. And I just had 314 00:18:07,599 --> 00:18:10,720 Andrew dune on. We were talking a little bit about 315 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:15,720 his early predictions based on the CPI. Your CPI for 316 00:18:15,799 --> 00:18:18,000 twenty twenty six. Because it's never too early to start 317 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,920 looking at the next election. So first off, what is 318 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,119 the Civitas Partisan Index. 319 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:29,319 Speaker 3: Well, the Civitas Partisan Index is a analysis of the baseline 320 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:33,880 voting tendencies of North Carolina's General Assembly district. So we 321 00:18:34,039 --> 00:18:38,839 take data and apply that to all one hundred and 322 00:18:38,839 --> 00:18:42,000 seventy districts in North Carolina, the fifty and the Senate 323 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,119 one hundred and twenty in the House, and then we 324 00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:48,000 see if all other things are equal, and of course 325 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,519 they never are, but if they were all equal, how 326 00:18:50,559 --> 00:18:53,559 would this district vote between a generic Republican and a 327 00:18:53,599 --> 00:18:57,240 generic Democrat? And we get these numbers. We get updated 328 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,880 data every two years, so we update the CPI every 329 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:00,519 two years. 330 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:05,799 Speaker 1: And so this uses your model utilizes precinct level results 331 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,559 from the nine to twenty twenty four Council of State races, 332 00:19:10,559 --> 00:19:13,400 and you don't use presidential data. 333 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,559 Speaker 3: We don't. You know. This is we've been doing this 334 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,039 for a while since even before I came on board 335 00:19:21,079 --> 00:19:23,680 to do this, and we were one of the We 336 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,319 want to use races that are kind of as generic 337 00:19:26,559 --> 00:19:30,960 as possible. So these statewide Council of State races minus 338 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:35,319 the governor are good for that because they really tend 339 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:39,359 to be in that narrow band, for say, between fifty 340 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:44,759 five and forty five percent Republican or Democratic. How people 341 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,440 vote if they don't have a whole lot of other 342 00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:50,160 information or there's not a lot of weird news media 343 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,039 information coming out that might alter the vote, and so 344 00:19:54,039 --> 00:19:56,960 they're kind of generic votes, and so they make pretty 345 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,319 good data points for us to use. 346 00:19:59,599 --> 00:20:02,599 Speaker 1: What about I hear this every time there's a presidential 347 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:07,839 race and the Republican wins North Carolina but loses or 348 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:12,319 but the Democrat wins the governorship, the ticket split a 349 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,720 effect in North Carolina? Does that have what does? How 350 00:20:16,799 --> 00:20:19,200 might that impact the data set? 351 00:20:20,839 --> 00:20:22,799 Speaker 3: Well, we saw that in Council of States there were 352 00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:26,599 some races won by Democrats Secretary of State, Lieutenant governor. 353 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,079 Republicans won races like Commissioner of Agriculture and the state auditor. 354 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,519 And so this accounts for all of those because we 355 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:38,240 pull all of those together and put them in not 356 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,599 just the percentages, but the vote totals. And we take 357 00:20:41,599 --> 00:20:44,039 the vote totals of all nine races and plug them 358 00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:49,039 into each of the approximately twenty seven hundred precincts in 359 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,119 North Carolina, and then, based on the current districts, we 360 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,599 assign those precincts to each of the districts to get 361 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,160 the results. And so it's kind of good that we 362 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,319 have that variety in the Council of State because it 363 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,799 kind of covers all basic contingencies. 364 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,519 Speaker 1: So, okay, so you're you said nine, because there are 365 00:21:07,559 --> 00:21:09,559 ten Council of States, so you're not including that. 366 00:21:09,799 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 3: We Yeah, we went Originally we didn't include governor because 367 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,119 there's a relatively high profile race. We started using it 368 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,839 for a couple of years, but you know, the last 369 00:21:19,839 --> 00:21:21,920 one was a bit of an outlier. Now, the way 370 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,880 that we do this, since we kind of norm based 371 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,519 on the election results, we compare each district to the 372 00:21:27,559 --> 00:21:31,559 statewide total, we would kind of account for that. But 373 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,359 having a race that was so unusual and including that 374 00:21:35,799 --> 00:21:39,920 could have some unforeseen effects on the analysis in some districts. 375 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,880 So we decided to go back to the old ways 376 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,279 and not include the governor's race. 377 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to ask it. 378 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, it doesn't really affect the outcome of the district 379 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,759 so much as far as we know, but there could 380 00:21:50,759 --> 00:21:52,559 be one or two where it would have made the 381 00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:53,440 results a little odd. 382 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 1: So this is what then gives you sort of the 383 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:03,200 four categories of of what directs a district is potentially going. 384 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,759 You've got toss up, you've got lean, you've got likely, 385 00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:11,400 and then safe. Obviously, a safe seat is one that 386 00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:16,880 is virtually guaranteed to one party or the other. Likely 387 00:22:17,079 --> 00:22:21,039 obviously means that it's more likely than not that you know, 388 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,440 Republicans going to carry the district or a Democrat. And 389 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,440 then you've got the leaning and the toss up. What's 390 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,759 the difference between the leaning and toss up. 391 00:22:29,839 --> 00:22:32,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, in a certain sense, it is arbitrary. You have 392 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,519 to assign a category to each of these. But basically 393 00:22:36,559 --> 00:22:40,599 our toss up districts have a different difference of either 394 00:22:41,079 --> 00:22:44,079 basically completely even. We call that plus zero, like an 395 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,440 R zero or a D zero or plus one. Either way, 396 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,160 they're just so close that you couldn't really reliably make 397 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,920 any kind of prediction there. The leans, those are the 398 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,599 ones that will generally go for that party, and that's 399 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,200 from A plus two to a plus five. The likelies 400 00:23:01,319 --> 00:23:05,519 are six to nine, and then ten plus is the 401 00:23:05,559 --> 00:23:10,119 safe districts. Generally speaking, you know, once again, all other 402 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,640 things being equal, you're going to win your leaners, you're 403 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,680 going to win your likelies. But in elections, like this, 404 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,119 which is a midterm election, the party out of the 405 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:23,160 White House, we've found out, will often be competitive in 406 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,440 the lean districts of the other parties. So that's potentially 407 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,640 good news for Democrats in twenty twenty six. 408 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,039 Speaker 1: Right, And of course, if there is some sort of 409 00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:34,799 a wave election or there's some you know, massive political 410 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,039 scandal like posing in front of a gas grill claiming 411 00:23:38,079 --> 00:23:41,599 to cook barbecue like that could have an impact on 412 00:23:43,039 --> 00:23:45,839 some of these districts specifically, because I mean I always 413 00:23:45,839 --> 00:23:50,039 say candidates matter. The candidates do matter. So oh yeah, yeah, yeah, 414 00:23:50,079 --> 00:23:51,559 So what does it look like. Let's look at the 415 00:23:51,599 --> 00:23:54,480 Senate real quick? First? What does the Senate look like? 416 00:23:54,559 --> 00:23:57,559 According to your analysis and the see. 417 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 3: The baseline would indicate the Republicans are going to come 418 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,400 out ahead. They'll have a pretty solid majority somewhere in 419 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,759 the twenty six twenty seven to twenty eight seat range, 420 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,160 not near a supermajority. Once again, Democrats could make a 421 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,400 play for some of those seats. One of the different 422 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,720 thing we talked about, and you mentioned how candidates matter 423 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,599 is a couple of those lean Republican seats are held 424 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,519 by frankly, really good politicians like Danny britt and Buck Newton. 425 00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:30,039 Both of those are out East, and so even though 426 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,599 they at least potentially could be districts that are in play, 427 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,279 probably not unless the Democrats can raise a ton of 428 00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:40,759 money and recruit a really, really good candidate to oppose 429 00:24:40,799 --> 00:24:45,480 those guys. But yeah, in the Bennett it's probably going 430 00:24:45,559 --> 00:24:48,160 to be Republicans being able to hold the House is 431 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,400 potentially more interesting. Even though a majority of seats are 432 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,079 either safe, likely or lean Republican. A lot more of 433 00:24:56,119 --> 00:25:01,319 those lean Republican seats appear to be in play this year. 434 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,960 It's still, you know, really early to figure us to 435 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,920 predict that. But if you go by pass tendencies in 436 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,200 these midterm elections, the party out of the White House 437 00:25:10,319 --> 00:25:13,279 picks up close to half of those lean seats on 438 00:25:13,319 --> 00:25:16,279 the other side that would be and generally comes close 439 00:25:16,319 --> 00:25:18,079 to sweeping the toss up. So you're looking at a 440 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,359 potential you know, eight nine, ten seats swinging towards the 441 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,920 Democrats in the House potentially. 442 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: And again not enough to give them the majority, but 443 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:32,519 definitely not That definitely makes it harder to override veto 444 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,559 sing goes for the Senate if they don't get thirty 445 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,920 votes in the Senate, you know, or seats whatever. Then 446 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,799 that means they're not going to be able to override 447 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,440 any of Josh Stein's vetos without Democrats' support, and that 448 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,559 becomes more difficult. One of the seats here you've got 449 00:25:46,599 --> 00:25:50,920 listed in the Senate side is Gabaris, County Lean's Republican. 450 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,640 It's an R plus two and that's Chris Mesmer and 451 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,559 he was the fellow that just got appointed to that seat. 452 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,279 And there were some shenani going on at the county 453 00:26:01,279 --> 00:26:05,000 commission level from whence he came, right, so that might right, 454 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,680 I'm thinking that was the that was the seat in question. 455 00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,839 So yeah, but again we're still a year off, so 456 00:26:12,039 --> 00:26:14,000 we'll see how it shakes out, whether people have a 457 00:26:14,039 --> 00:26:16,519 memory for that sort of thing. You also listed on 458 00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:21,640 the House side to Mecklenburg seats that are toss ups, 459 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:29,240 Tricia Cotham's and Beth Helfrich that's Mecklenburg ninety eight. She 460 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,599 is in a D plus one seat, but you still 461 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,960 rate that as a as a toss up. So there's 462 00:26:35,079 --> 00:26:39,279 you know, potentially again depending on what we see sort 463 00:26:39,319 --> 00:26:42,039 of as a in the national environment and in the 464 00:26:42,079 --> 00:26:45,440 local environment, like there's a possibility that Cotham is out, 465 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,359 but also a possibility that Helfrich loses depending on who 466 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:49,200 they run against her. 467 00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:53,799 Speaker 3: So yeah, definitely there's a potential there, although probably a 468 00:26:53,839 --> 00:26:57,319 little harder for Cossam just because of the likely environment 469 00:26:57,319 --> 00:26:59,680 next year unless something very strange happens and we have 470 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,559 an usual election here right. 471 00:27:02,759 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: Yep, you never can tell, You never can tell. And 472 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,920 by the way, candidate filing starts December first, so are right, 473 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,519 just a couple of weeks away. So there we go, 474 00:27:12,799 --> 00:27:14,559 h Andy, I'll let you get back to your vacation. 475 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,920 Thanks so much for your generosity and spending some of 476 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:18,160 your time with us. I appreciate it. 477 00:27:18,799 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 3: All right, it's good talking to you too, all right. 478 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 1: Take care. That's doctor Andy Jackson from the John Locke Foundation. 479 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:27,400 You can, by the way, check out, uh the Civitas 480 00:27:27,599 --> 00:27:31,200 Partisan index. Oh, I had the website here, hang on, 481 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:33,559 let me find it here so I can give it 482 00:27:33,559 --> 00:27:36,839 to you before we toss it to traffic. It is 483 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:44,000 John Loock dot org. Okay, just go to john lock 484 00:27:44,039 --> 00:27:46,359 dot org. They've got it on their page. They're introducing 485 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:50,240 the twenty twenty six Civotos Partisan Indexes. The headline John 486 00:27:50,319 --> 00:27:52,799 Lock dot org. That's Lock with an E at the end, 487 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,839 John Lock dot org. You know stories are powerful. They 488 00:27:55,839 --> 00:27:59,440 help us make sense of things, to understand experiences. Stories 489 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,759 connect us to the people of our past while transcending generations. 490 00:28:02,799 --> 00:28:05,240 They help us process the meaning of life and our 491 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,519 stories are told through images and videos. Preserve your stories 492 00:28:09,559 --> 00:28:12,759 with Creative Video. Started in nineteen ninety seven in Minhill, 493 00:28:12,839 --> 00:28:15,480 North Carolina. It was the first company to provide this 494 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,839 valuable service, converting images, photos and videos into high quality 495 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,920 produced slide shows, videos and albums. The trusted, talented and 496 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,640 dedicated team at Creative Video will go over all of 497 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,640 the details with you to create a perfect project. Satisfaction guaranteed. 498 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,759 Drop them off in person or mail them. They'll be 499 00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:35,079 ready in a week or two. Memorial videos for your 500 00:28:35,079 --> 00:28:40,880 loved ones, videos for rehearsal, dinners, weddings, graduations, Christmas, family vacations, birthdays, 501 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,799 or just your family stories all told through images. That's 502 00:28:44,799 --> 00:28:48,119 what your photos and videos are. They are your life 503 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,839 told through the eyes of everyone around you and all 504 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,039 who came before you, and they will tell others to 505 00:28:53,039 --> 00:29:33,759 come who you are. Visit creative video dot com. Sh 506 00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:04,400 alrighty Happy, Veterans Day. It's a shout out there to 507 00:30:04,599 --> 00:30:08,440 the army. The army goes rolling along. That's their tune. 508 00:30:08,599 --> 00:30:11,039 We'll be playing one from all of the services, yes, 509 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,160 even Space Force, they have a song. So I said, 510 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,400 I would circle back to Andrew Dunn's comments on the 511 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,519 budget stalemate in Raleigh. He said, it's a genuine policy 512 00:30:20,519 --> 00:30:27,200 disagreement between Republicans, okay, and it's both over tax relief 513 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,880 and fiscal stability. So under the Senate plan, personal income 514 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,160 tax rates would continue to come down over the next 515 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,880 three years, under an agreement that the chambers had reached 516 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,960 back in twenty twenty three. The Senate initially wanted even 517 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,720 more aggressive tax cuts, but leaders say that they have 518 00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:47,920 backed off of that position now. The House, meanwhile, wants 519 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,920 to delay the tax cuts for the foreseeable future. After 520 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,319 spending more than two billion dollars on Hurricane Helene recovery 521 00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:00,480 and hearing economic forecasts of potential looming budget deficits, they 522 00:31:00,519 --> 00:31:06,920 want to keep more flexibility. That's the rub, Okay, It's 523 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:11,480 about the tax rate, the personal income tax rates. Do 524 00:31:11,519 --> 00:31:15,799 they keep dropping or do you pause them because of 525 00:31:15,839 --> 00:31:20,319 the Hurricane Helene costs? And you keep the revenue coming 526 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,720 in at the current level, and if there is going 527 00:31:23,759 --> 00:31:26,480 to be a deficit in the future years like four years, 528 00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:30,599 five years down the road, then does this guard against that. 529 00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:33,720 That's the nature of the disagreement. As Andrew says, everything 530 00:31:33,759 --> 00:31:38,519 else is noise. All right. That'll do it for this episode. 531 00:31:38,519 --> 00:31:40,599 Thank you so much for listening. I could not do 532 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,799 the show without your support and the support of the 533 00:31:42,839 --> 00:31:45,880 businesses that advertise on the podcast, so if you'd like, 534 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,119 please support them too and tell them you heard it here. 535 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,759 You can also become a patron at my Patreon page 536 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,480 or go to thepetecleanershow dot com. Again, thank you so 537 00:31:54,559 --> 00:32:04,640 much for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.