Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is Thursday. It's time
for full court press, Robbino. Thursday, once we get to
conference play, is my favorite day of the week because
it's all of like the small mid major leagues, as
I spend a lot of time following driving around the
country going to games, and they all sort of play
on Thursday. Now, I think it's a budget type thing
that the travel when you're not a power five team
and you don't you know, you don't have the same
amenities if you will traveling around as some of the
bigger leagues. It tends to be like Thursday Saturday tends
to be make the most sense, meaning you're gonna go,
You're gonna play on Thursday, You're gonna stay in the
general area, play someone on Saturday. Less nights in the hotel,
less strain on the athletic department. That's why we see
so many leagues, so many of the mid major leagues
play Thursday Saturday now a cost cutting measure. But you
know the nice thing about it is on Saturday they
tend to get lost in the shuffle because there's one
hundred and forty games and everyone's playing on Thursday. It's
almost like they get the stage to themselves. So I
want to start with what I consider the feature game.
It's still a mid major league. But you know, off air, Rob,
we were kind of talking about the Yukon game last night,
and you know, unfortunately it killed our parlay. Yukon comes
back to get it done in overtime, but they fail
to cover the number, and it's like almost like there's
no one is immune. You know. I kind of joked yesterday,
maybe they win every game by double digits, right, Like
I said that, I didn't think they were gonna lose
a league game this year, and it's almost like no
one is immune to a dud and our feature game
tonight Santa Clara Gonzaga. Gonzaga kind of had that the
other day right where they they very much took for
granted the Seattle RedHawks as a twenty three to twenty
four point favorite and found themselves in a game with
the with Seattle that they ultimately won, just like Yukon
found away last night. It's just what good teams do.
Gonzaga have a big favorite at home tonight against Santa
Clara at the Kennel. Do you think they got the
gut out of their system and do we see them
running up here.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's a bad matchup for Santa Clara
only because everything that Santa Clara does really really well
from an offensive standpoint, Gonzaga defends either just as well
or better. So it's gonna be difficult. You know, Santa
Clara mostly an offensive, rebounding inside the arc type team.
You don't get a lot of offensive rebounds against Gonzaga.
You don't get a lot of clean looks inside the
arc against Gonzaga. Santa Clara can still shoot the three
a little bit, but they've become a little more two
point dependent this season. And if I flip that over,
everything Gonzaga does well offensively, Santa Clara defends it like
a mid tier level. So it's hard to make a
real case for Santa Clara. Fundamentally. They've shot the ball really,
really well in their last four games since conference play started.
Sixty four percent from the field against Oregon State, fifty
four against Portland, forty nine against Pepperdine, and then fifty
against San Diego. Those are really good shooting days for
Santa Clara. Certainly, Gonzaga Mark few takes note of that.
Their defense Just to give you the contrast to that,
their defensive numbers since conference play started. They allowed only
thirty four percent to Pepperdine thirty six percent to Seattle,
despite the fact that it went ot and thirty percent
in their last game to Loyola Merrimount. The sort of
outlier is the game against San Diego where they allowed
fifty two percent and got up and down the floor
in a ninety nine to ninety three games So Gonzagas
had a couple of close calls here which would make
you believe that perhaps the price tag is too high.
The matchup tells me that if they want to, the
price tag isn't too high. I wonder about the total
here at one hundred and sixty five points. I think
it could end up being an under in this game.
I think maybe the defensive side of Gonzaga comes out
here at home, and perhaps Santa Clara defends enough to
hold let's say Gonzaga to eighty five or less. If
they do that, this game probably stays under. So that
would be my initial look at him is under one
sixty five. I don't really have a firm opinion on
the side, because, as you just heard, I kind of
make cases both ways. To make the case that Gonzagas
had two out of four close calls despite being the
superior team in league plays so far, and Santa Clara
is just shot it so well for four straight I
wonder if against this defense that number doesn't come down drastically.
Speaker 1: We'll see, Uh, I think that's fair to think that,
like the spread is probably my number came out very
close to the to the number here. I do think that, like,
I think Gonzaga is going to be able to kind
of get what they want though in this matchup. So
I I think Gonzaga has no problem scoring. Now we
know that from a from a full game total perspective,
Gonzaga they will wipe teams out on occasion, right, and
and and the game I referenced was, uh, the Seattle
game was not the most recent game, so that was there.
They had their sort of bounce back from so you
you referenced twice in conference play San Diego. That was
concerning to me. Let's put it that way, san Diego
scoring ninety three points against Gonzaga. But you know San
Diego what they do well kind of like they have
a lot of one on one kind of like shot
making scores in that regard, So, like I guess, it
doesn't surprise me that in a game where they trailed
most of the game that they could just kind of
hang around and score baskets. But you know, Gonzaga did
have their bounce back moment against Loyola Marormount last time
out eighty two to forty seven wins, So had this
game fallen in that Loyola Marramount spot, I be far
more inclined to lay the fifteen and a half with
Gonzaga here. You know, I guess like I do see
the merit with like Santa Clara does a lot of
things well, but for me, like in this matchup, I
think I think Gonzaga gets to the rim and scores
pretty much as much as they want. So for me,
it's gonna be can Santa Clara do what San Diego
did score hang around to stay within fifteen and a
half or do they or if they don't, Gonzaga winning
by twenty is certainly not out of the question. So
I think for me, the slightest of leans towards Zaga
minus the point, and it's just being at home the
fact that I think that they're gonna score with relative
ease against Santa Clara. Who is gonna let them get
up and down? Who's gonna let them get to the rim?
Would put me on the Gonzaga side, but not a
not something I'm gonna bet personally. It's just I know
a game. This is the Drew Martin Degenerate Special ROB.
It is the last game off the board. It is
the last game off the board. And because of that,
and because it's on ESPN two and gonzagas of course
a national power at this point, it had to be
the feature game. Coach forty says, Gonzaga team total over,
Like yeah, I mean, I'm certainly I'm certainly not betting
Gonzaga team total under. That's for sure, not with the
with what I think the pace is going to be.
Anything on that ROB.
Speaker 2: The team total, it's just the game kind of to me,
Adam to throw a number out there, the game just
has the makings of like an eighty six seventy, Like
they skim by the number. They hold Santa Clara to seventy,
they get near ninety here you have to ask them
to get over ninety. I think team total I'll go
back and check, but I thought that their team total
was maybe ninety and a half. I'm gonna look real
fast while we toy well eighty nine and a half,
there are some ninety and a half's out there. So basically,
by the end of the day, you're probably gonna be
asking Gonzaga to get to ninety one. And to me,
there's not enough wiggle room there. But I think a
full game under to me, kind of makes the most sense.
It is interesting, Adam real quick here. Gonzaga forty point win,
thirty five point win in conference play, close call, close
call in the other two. So it's one or the other.
Either they blow these teams out or they make it close.
Styles make games and everything Santa Clara wants to do.
On the offensive end, Gonzaga defends really well. So it's
gonna be when you come in as a great offensive
rebounding team or an elites statistically offensive rebounding team like
Santa Claire is, asking them to get second chances against
Gonzaga's board work on the defensive side. That that's not easy.
There could be a lot of one and done for
that side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right about like your net, you're rarely gonna
get like value on something like that a Gonzaga team
total over at home. My projection for Gonzaga here ninety
ninety sorry, ninety two point one, ninety two point one point,
so suggest that it goes over eighty nine and a half.
But as you said, like it's typically there's not going
to be value in a bet like that, And I
would agree that's that's not really enough of a of
a you know, margin to like be like okay, yeah,
that's that's any value there. But like Rob, like you're
saying like you could with a total like this up
where it is in the one sixties, like you could
theoretically get a Gonzaga team total over and the game
could still like stay under right without much issue because
of how big that number is. That total for the game,
definitely suggesting that there's going to be some points by
both teams. Speaking of totals, Rob, here's an interesting one.
This is I'm gonna go this is I guess something
that we should point out. Garth appreciate the donation. He
wants to go Summit League totals, which I know that
you've you know, messed around within the past. Rob Denver,
South Dakota State, Denver is thirteen to oh to the
over this season Summit League totals. I know you've played
around with these. Have you gotten involved at all during
conference play? Now that we're back in conference play? And
what do you have for Garth on this total right here?
Speaker 2: Well, I certainly kicked myself last night for being on
at least for client tile. The South Dakota game over
went way over the total. South Dakota is another one
of those that gets up and over. But to Denver
run it was Denver an American You for quite a while,
the surprise teams just going over every single game American You.
Last night, I think came in under the total, and
they've come in under the total a couple of times now.
But Denver just continues to go up and over, So
it's hard to say that they would play an under here.
I'm not sure. Here's the thing about the Summit League.
I'm not real sure oddsmakers catch up as quick in
this particular league, like I say, last night, and maybe
not the market either. At them, not even the Sharps
got to that South Dakota game over. That number just
got to a place, sat there, sat there, sat there.
Nobody wanted to bet over and then the game goes
like thirty points over. So that's kind of what you're
dealing with here with Denvers. So to Guard's point, until
this time, until this freight train either gets priced out
of range or they stop showing you the ability to
score and not defend, I think you continue to play
it over now South Dakota State, for what it's worth,
it's not the same team obviously under new leadership here,
different player personnel. I don't know that there is good
at you know, recent South Dakota State teams, let's go
back a decade, always good perimeter shooting, high scoring teams.
Not so sure South Dakota. South Dakota State is that
this year. However, the Denver defense allows so much that
you can become that on a single night. So matchups
here suggests you probably want to play over. I haven't yet,
but have taken notice of that Denver market trend, and
I would say to Garth that I still don't think
that the odds makers have correctly compensated for what Denver's
doing right now. And it's probably because not a lot
of people go to the window with Summit League totals.
That's probably the reason no reason to adjust if nobody's
gonna bet.
Speaker 1: It, well, well, no one's gonna bet it because this
is one of the toughest leagues to watch. It's like,
not on ESPN Plus, you have to have like Summit
log in. I think it. I can't even remember if
it's paywalled. It might be, I might, I know, I
just like subscribe, I can't. I think they actually charge
listen in. I guess everyone charges to an extent, right
because if you're if you're on ESPN Plus, then you
have to pay a subscription for it. But yeah, I
think that I think that hurts the Summit. You know, like,
at least at least listen rob when you have to
go over to any sea front row, at least it's free.
You're just pulling the website up, you know. I've always
found Summit being like the one of the tougher ones
to watch. Of course, we'll get to a flow sports
in just a minute, but that may be the you know,
the Coastal may have the worst deal of any of them.
But yeah, I agree with you. I don't think the
Summit gets even the UH as much recreational better love
than some of the other leagues. And so yeah, Well,
one thing I will say that I don't think has
really gone unnoticed is Denver from like the side perspective.
You know, they've had some really nice results this year,
and that that number certainly suggests that the odds makers
are aware that Denver can play. I had it? Are
we still seven and a half? My screen is frozen
for whatever reason, probably because I'm back in New York
and it's cold again. I'm back in the.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all seven and a half, so all the way
across the board, and we should have mentioned this right
off the top four Garth, that game total has been
hit dramatically hard to the under. Oh yeah, opened one
sixty eight, and as you and I are talking, the
screen's just flashing all over the place, all the way
down to one sixty one and in some places one
sixty and a half. So you got a seven and
a half point move to the under in some places.
And I think it's part of what I mentioned when
I was talking about this game is that South DA
code is just not the same. You can't rely on
them to score the way you used to be able
to rely on them. That could change over the course
of conference season, and like I said first year head
coach who knows. But they're not the same high flying
team that they used to be, so maybe this one
got too Obviously it did to some groups out there.
This one got out of range at one sixty eight,
and they're trying to you know, correct the market so
to speak.
Speaker 1: Listen, Garth, I'm always gonna be pro playback in an
eight point move. So it's like if you like the
over and you liked it at one sixty three and
a half and it's down to one sixty, like, I'm
always gonna be like yeah, I mean that's the only
way you could play it at this point. And it's
probably steamed too far as far as like just this
game is concerned. You know, South Dakota State last time
out loses in Grand Forks to North Dakota. Like if
you want, if you want like a barometer for like
where this program is right now without Eric Henderson, who's
now the coach of Drake, Like, when was the last
time they lost to North Dakota, right, I mean that's
that is a that I don't know, It's probably been
years unless it was like one of those surprise freak results.
They haven't had many losses like that recently, so I
understand like, looking at this, you're like, man, it's only
seven and a half. They can bounce back here. That's
a you know, that's like there's some appeal to that, right,
them coming back to Brookings where they historically play very well.
But I think historically is the key when you're talking
about South Dakota State. This just isn't the teams that
South Dakota State has had year in and year out.
And Denver's done some interesting stuff. Rob They hung around
with Seattle, they hung around with Washington, a win on
the road against Montana State, They beat Colorado State as
a big underdog. That win looks even better now, and
then you talk about, you know, win at Northern Colorado.
That's a good win. Hung around with Tulsa, that's good
result because Tulsa has now become a team that, you know,
it looks like they could contend in their league. And
then over the weekend they go to Saint Thomas and
cover as a double digit under So I think the
market definitely has adjusted to Denver. Right like two weeks ago,
this would have been ten and a half. Okay, Denver
has put some really good results together as an underdog.
Now it's seven and a half. But Rob, I think
the odds makers kind of nailed the side here. I
just don't think there's enough value. I think if you
were gonna give me ten and a half here with
Denver again, I'd be all over Denver. But it's just
not enough points. Though. I wouldn't be surprised if Denver
gave South Dakota State a game, because I just don't
really care for the South Dakota stateem Yeah.
Speaker 2: Couple of interesting things there, Adam. It's probably a double adjustment.
I think the power rating on South Dakota State has
come way down, the Denver power rating goes up. That's
why we get what we have today, seven and a half.
And Denver all the games you mentioned, in every game
they've played this year, they've hung around in one game's
playing zero defense. It's all on the offensive end. It's
just score score score, score score, And they're showing right
now that they're good enough to score in any instance
road versus team that's better than them, you know, as
a road dog at home, no matter where it is,
they've been able to do good stuff offensive team total wise.
You know what I should look that up for Garth
real quick, and well, then we'll wrap this up because
as much as I like the Summit League, we don't
want to spend all day here on the Summit game.
But team total for Denver looks like where the heck
is it?
Speaker 1: And while you look that up, listen, Hey, we spend
the time. Listen, if you're gonna if you're gonna donate
to the show, we're gonna hit your game. And it's
equal opportunity handicapping here doesn't matter, if the Summit doesn't matter,
if it's a big ten, every game deserves you know,
any game deserves the same treatment. So what we're going
to go into detail, especially if you're going to donate
to the show, it's much appreciated. Rob, did you find
what you were looking for?
Speaker 2: Seventy six and a half seems rather low for a
Denver team total, So you know, for Garth who was
asking the question, maybe go ahead and throw that on
your short list and dig into that a little more.
But that could be a potential play here. Denverd to
get the seventy seven against anybody is become commonplace this season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we have the chat kind of make our very
intelligent chat. I always compliment the chat we have probably
one of the smartest chat groups that comes in here
every day that of any show I've ever done. Making
a good point, you know, if where this game is lined,
you know, if it's close like this definitely feels like
the type of game you could get some extension in
and that could only help the over If that's the case,
all right, rob By, the game we.
Speaker 2: Talked about earlier, the game we talked about earlier at
fifteen and a half Gonzaga Santa Clara, you may not
get that extension which would help you under if Gonzaga
is up by sixteen late like the spread indications.
Speaker 1: All right, if you have taken out a second mortgage
on your house and you have a Flow Sport subscription,
you can watch this next game at twelve thirty pm
PM Eastern time. I don't know why the Coastal Athletic
Association feels like that that, you know that they should
behind this kind of paywall, but they are. And Flow
Sports I've said on a numerous number of occasions. One
of the it's just one of the worst things out
there in sports that you have to essentially pay thirty
bucks a month to watch Hofstra Tausen or whatever it is.
But that is that, that is what we will do.
And it is a twelve thirty am Eastern game or
a twelve thirty PM Eastern game. And before I get
into this, I will say, listen, I'm gonna this is
gonna be by parlay leg I'm going to give out
another client play. So before I do that, I got
to promote the the the combo package for myself and Rob,
because if you guys don't start to buy the combo
package for myself and Rob, I'm not going to give
out the the occasional client play on the show anymore
as I did yesterday with Saint LOUI is cashing at
plus two and a half and I did the day
before with Syracuse. So go show us some love. Grab
that that incredibly discounted Cambo three day, which gets you
all of my plays, all of Rob's plays, and I
will keep coming on here and giving the giving you
the occasional client play on the show. Rob. I'm willing
to do it today for three reasons, okay, one, well
two reasons. One, It's a loaded board today and I
know I'm gonna have quite a few plays, so I
don't mind. I don't mind giving the early one for
free two two my guy, so it was only gonna
be a three percent play, and I'm usually more inclined
to just give those out whatever. But my guy, by
you Betts, texted me this morning and he said, he said,
Towson is doing one dollar beers for an eleven thirty
AM game. That's gotta be a that's gotta be a
four percenter. And at the same time, so I gotta
be honest, I put the three percent in. It moved
a little bit. I said, all right, well, I can't
add a I can't add an extra unit when the
number has gotten out of range. But there's been a
little battling on this one. I wonder if there's kind
of some two way sharp action here. You had Towson
get hit up from minus one up to all the
way up to three. I maybe even touch three and
a half some places. A little bit of a counter
by with Hofstra has knocked this back down. So right
now we're right in the range where I played this
for clients. I played Towson minus one thirty, which is
actually you could probably even get minus one twenty five
or minus one twenty on that towsand money line right now.
And you know, this kind of fits the pretty much
what I've been having success with on this current run
since the first of the year. And I'm kicking myself
because I played Old Miss plus four and a half
yesterday and totally like went against what I said, like
taking those four to seven point underdogs and it costs.
I'm very upset with myself for doing that. So recalibrating
coming back in and I'm looking for these games where
I think I'm getting the home team, or not necessarily
the home team, but the better team at almost like
a pick'm price. Now, Rob, I think you could argue
here that Hofstra might be the better team. Okay, I
think you could argue that, But I do think you
have to respect basically every person that did a pre
that had a conference outlook Poweraking preview for the Coastal
Athletic Association and that ranked Tows in number one. Right,
So we talk about coming into conference play a clean slate.
If your Towson, the slate is no longer clean, Rob,
They've lost their first three conference games. I don't like
getting too caught up in the spot, but like is
Towson really gonna start Coastal Athletic Association play zero to
four after being the league favorite coming into the season. Historically,
Hofstra has been a good matchup for them and the
way they sort of will only teams on the glass.
I like towsing here. Do you agree or disagree?
Speaker 2: I don't think I agree or disagree because I couldn't
come up with a side on this. My first inclination,
Adam was to play thousand because of the defense in
the style, and probably the style takes Hofstra out of
a little bit of what they like to do. Not
that they're an uptempo team under Speedy Claxton, but they
go quicker. No, nobody goes slower than tousand, basically three
sixty two and adjusted tempo. So there's three teams that
do then. As you mentioned, another part of the handicap
was the desperation spot. And it's really weird to say
desperation here in the first week of January heading into
the second week of January. But oh to four is
tough to come back from. I mean, obviously, in conference tournaments,
you could be seeded anywhere and win a conference tournament championship.
But if you want to be regular season champ of
the league, it becomes really difficult. The problem I have
with tousand is the last g they played against Mommouth.
It's kind of disturbing. It was a miserable shooting performance. Now,
I'm a guy I come on here every day just
about with one game that we talk about where I
preach bounce back. It's part of my handicap. If I
see a good team underperform, I think they're gonna bounce
back the next time around. You could get that out
of tousand here. But the other part of me says,
Hofstra may just be good enough to win a game
straight up. So I had conflicting thoughts on the game. Adam.
The total for me, I would probably lean toward the under.
I know it's a low number, one thirty three and
a half, but I think if thousand is focused and
motivated to put up their first conference win, especially at home,
and especially in this time slot where you might get
a you know, lackluster first half before second half kicks in,
I would think maybe under is a look that I
would have. But I didn't play the game. And four
percent I heard you mentioned is that the alcohol level
of the beer that's going to be here for a dollar?
Or are we going thirteen percent ipa? Everybody loaded at
twelve thirty?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I don't I don't know what the
IPA scene is like really in Maryland. I'll tell you what.
If this game was at like Rhode Island or Brown,
you'd have those like Narragansett like seven percenters. I think
the Roady Ram ipa is quite high in alcohol content.
Brown had a good one too. There's another brewery right there,
but yeah, who knows, I mean, who knows how many
people are even going to be there to drink them?
That's what I want to know, is it dollar beers?
Because like no one's going to be out the game.
Here's my thing for this. For Towsand, okay, they uh
Tyler Tahatta and Dylan Williamson just straight up have to
play better like those two. The fact that Towson has
those two back and they're still having all these offensive
issues is kind of mind boggling. Like no one can
make a shot on this Towsand team, but those two
should be able to score like those are like on paper,
should be two of the better players in this league,
you know, especially Tahta, who you know, is still a
you know, he's still shot, gonna shoot forty three percent
in the field, sixteen point five points per game. Like,
those two just have to get it going offensively, and
then all of a sudden, like Towson's offensive problems are
probably somewhat solved, right like, because they've gotten they just
don't have any shot makers. But if you can get
your two sort of go to scorers going going who
have not really been going in conference play so far,
you're gonna be okay. Now, The reason that this matchup
has been good for Towson in past years is because
Haustra heavily relies on shooting the ball. But they you know,
they're they're very good at it. They've got some really
good shooters. But going on the road and shooting the
ball is something we talk about on the show all
the time. Like if you are a jump shooting team
and then you go on the road, typically that's where
you're gonna be vulnerable, right Like, it's just common sense.
You're in a that you're not totally used to, and
now you're trying to put it in from eighteen feet away,
So let you know, when you're two feet away from
the basket. It doesn't really matter where you are. It's
like you're finishing around the rim. Towson. The other area
they have at edge here against Ostra and they have
in years past, is just tremendous defensive rebounding. Like that's
the one thing Hostra or I'm sorry, Towsand's a really
good rebounding team. They're going to clean up in that
department they're gonna defend. So rob I am sort of
just going with the spot play. Towson cannot start oh
and four in this league. I mean, it just I
can't even wrap my head around that being possible that
the tows And Tigers, many people's preseason favorite to win
the Coastal, are gonna be oh and four. I don't
think they're going to be. I think they're going to
find a way to get it done. They've won ugly
games against Ostra in the past. I think they win
an ugly one here. This will be my leg of
the parlay Towsan money line. I think we could we
call it minus one twenty five at this point. Again,
I don't I don't put any stock into like there's
there's back and forth money here. It's been Tousing money,
followed by host your money, followed by tows and Money
filed by Hofst your money. So any money line that
you can get on Towson is good. I don't think
the line matters as long as you just need Towson
to win. I think we're gonna get a tows and
win and Towson money line will be my leg of
the parlay. Okay, no dollar There was no dollar beers
in any of the games I was at this past weekend.
I did try two very good blonde IPAs. Both North
Texas and Louisville had one. I kind of stopped drinking
beers years ago, but like listen, Rob, you slap a
logo on something, I'm gonna get it. It's just that simple,
you know. Like I think I made it through like
three SIPs of each of those beers. But if it's
got a logo on it, I need a picture with it.
And that's just you know, I've said this many a time.
If you're a cout like marketing like one oh one,
if you don't have a beer at your arena with
a team logo on it, you are just straight up
missing out. Anyone, any anyone is gonna buy that even
if they don't even like want to drink it, just
to have the camp by you bets. It wasn't an
IPA at Toledo that was really good. That was actually
a vodka lemonade, Blueberry lemonade. Brian Power and I mostly
Brian Power because I was behind the wheel. Uh mostly
Brian Power had had a few of those. Actually by
the Michigan State game, Brian Power is like pretty hammered,
but you know we were. We moved on to the
Sparti Lager and yeah, we we got after it. But
those were really good. Toledo Rockets Blueberry I p A.
All right, back to games. Let's go back to the
chat here. Let's see, man, there's a lot of good one.
There's a lot of God, there's so many, all right,
Joey cheap I promised him. We talked about this game,
and he also was like, Trig, I need you to
wear your Northeastern gear on the show. And I said,
I said, Joe, they didn't have See this is another
pet peeve of mine. Rob. If you're if you can't
make it to the bookstore, bookstore hours are not very good.
So if I'm showing up at the game an hour before.
I need you to have a decent selection of merch
inside your arena, Like if you have like two T
shirts like that are screen printed, I can't. It's got
to be like legit or I'm not going to get it.
So that's what happened at Northeastern. Now, rob their building
was built in nineteen ten. They no longer play there anymore.
They are now somewhere on campus. I think it's at
Joey Chi said this is this building is smaller than
my high school gym, and that's where this game is
going to be tonight. So Wilmington's heading up north to
Boston to take on Northeastern in their temporary home. They
closed William Marine or they closed Matthew's Arena for good
a couple of weeks ago, and Northeastern's going to play
out the seas in whatever facility that they're playing in
on campus Tonight, fourteen and two, Wilmington comes to town.
Do you have a lean in this one? Another Coastal
Athletic Association game, Wilmington Northeastern.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not playing against Wilmington. I don't care where.
If it's in my backyard, I'm not playing against Wilmington
right now. Certainly they've shown to be the class early
on in this league. I do find some interest at
him in the fact that they had played a forty
nine to forty five game prior, which is generally right
up my alley. You've got a good team out there
that scored less than fifty points. My inclination is always
let's bet that team total over next time out. That
number tonight is seventy six and a half been bet
up from seventy four and a half, still a possibility.
I could play it. Northeastern not quite good enough defensively
to maybe keep this team from approaching seventy seven. So
I don't know that Northeastern tempo or defense could prevent
them from doing that in this game. What could prevent
them is from getting there is bad shooting. But I
think that the bad shooting might be out of their
system after the game against Hampton. In that particular game,
three of sixteen from three par NC Wilmington eighteen point
eight percent. Have to believe that comes up to a
round thirty here. If it does, they probably approach this one.
Haven't quite finished all the work I want to do
on that game, but I'm telling you, I'm leaning somewhat
toward Wilmington getting over this team total A because they're
that good, because Northeastern doesn't do the things necessary to
stop them from being good offensively, and see, because they
just didn't perform well offensively in their last game. So
there could be some dead spots in the flowd This
could be like the Boston Garden where Wilmington dribbles it
and the ball doesn't come back to them and they're
not aware where these spots are. But I think that
they're probably ticketed for seventy seven here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Cheese, of course you have flow sports. You
told me before the show that you love Northeastern. Tonight
it might be a huge play for you, so i'd
hope you have have flowed to A. And he's a
Northeast guy. He's a Northeast guy. Joey Cheese, like me,
is all over these like smaller Northeast conferences, not that
Northeastern's in a Northeast conference anymore. Of course, the Coastal
pretty much the name change was, you know, I guess,
to represent the fact that it goes from Boston to Wilmington.
At this point in that league. Some injury news here,
So Xander Alare is done for the year. He's been
out the last couple of games. So I don't really
think that matters to the number that much for Northeastern,
but this was announced on the website, so here's here's
a good example of a team that is like Listen,
la Pratt has been out for since the beginning of
the year. I still think Northeastern gets maybe a little
bit too discounted on the number for injuries because they've
had injuries all year. So it's like that can't be
part of your handicap. Guys are banged up, they've had injuries.
They've had a lot of these injuries, and a lot
of these guys out all year. Rob you said, you
know the shooting woes for Wilmington. I mean, I don't
know have they gotten out of their system because I'll
tell you what. I took Wilmington in a home game
against Howard back on December twentie if. They lost the
game as a fifteen point favorite to the Bison, and
that was really the first game that I felt like
they just didn't they I mean, they could not buy
one and they ended up losing that game sixty seven
to sixty six. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well
against NCAA and t pulled away at the end. There
didn't shoot the ball well against Drexel. They end up
winning that game by twelve, but it was certainly not
that the you know, they kind of pulled away at
the end forty nine to forty five against Hampton. That's
real concerning for me. You know, UNC Wilmington, I believe CJ.
Luster is pretty much done for the year. Never he
has never stepped foot on the court for them. He
was one of their big portal gets from Stonybrook and
he never he's never played. It looks like they're going
to red shirt him because of his injury. So even
though he's never played, I know that they were anticipating
getting him back. Jonathan Lamont finally stepped on the floor
in Wilmington's last game. He played nine minutes against Hampton.
Didn't really do much And from what I so, I
do know that I have a good contact down at Wilmington.
I know that the goal is to really ease him
back in. He could be a great so Jonathan Lamont,
I believe he started his career at Maryland last year.
He was one of nca and t's better players, which
you know, is actually pretty impressive when half his team
was trying to throw games. So the fact that he
had a good season there while half of his team
was point shaving is pretty good. I think he could
be a huge piece for this Wilmington team, but I'm
pretty sure that the goal is to ease him in
very slowly, so this could be a spot. I know
Joey likes Northeastern. I actually don't hate Northeastern. Plus the
points here, I think Wilmington is a team that has
the aspirations are to get to the NCAA tournament, and
this is a deep roster. Lamont will be one of
their better players when he's back to full strength, but
right now I don't know that they fully have their
rotation set. And then the other problem here Rob is
I just they have not shot the ball well and
they're gonna go play this in a rec center. Basically
it's not even at Matthew so this is gonna be
the first time they're stepping into this whatever it is,
small gym on campus, and I don't know, that's just
not the scenario I want for a team that hasn't
shot the ball well in three weeks, so Northeastern to
maybe make this a sloppy game. Plus four Joey, I
don't hate it. It's not gonna make my card, but
I don't really hate it. It's yeah, that'll be an
interesting game. Could could see a Northeastern upset right there.
Speaker 2: I think real quick we should point out Adam that
early market move on this game where total is concerned,
right for they've pushed it up five points and a
half all the way up to one forty eight and
a half, as if they know the Rims are friendly
in this building already because off of still and analytical stuff,
you wouldn't project this game to be near one point fifty.
But it keeps, it keeps going up, So we'll see
if there's pushback on that number. But right now we
see a lot of over money. No money on the
side and a fair slight amount towards Wilmington, but a
lot of money on this game to go over.
Speaker 1: Sixer says just got into did we discuss the early game? Yes,
we did, so you can scroll back if you want to.
If you don't want to hear me yap about it,
just hang on to the end of the show because
I use in the parlay and it will be recapped
in the parlay if you do want to hear the breakdown.
As always wager Talk YouTube channel. This show is also
on demand. Like and subscribe while you're over there, drop
a comment. It all helps and you can watch it
on demand at any time with time stamps. Eventually, I
you know that is not in my skill set yet
rob to timestamp the show in real time, though we
have people that ask every day, so the time stamps
will be in there, I promise eventually, like a little
bit after the show is done, and one of the
things that will be timestamped will be the hostra house
and breakdown. But that's a twelve thirty game, remember, so yeah,
just rewind. It was like the third game we talked about.
And while you're over on the wager Talk YouTube channel,
please like and subscribe. Garth is back. He wants to
know about this team total and I'm cool with talking
about this game because it's a rob. Luisiana Monroe, for
whatever reason, pops up on my their value for me
every time they play. I don't. I guess I haven't
quite figured out why my numbers so far off the market.
On Monroe, but they've actually haven't been you know, and
again I'm going off of memory here, at least for
the last three four weeks. I feel like they've been
kind of a cover machine because they're always you know,
I jot them down. Admittedly, I haven't watched much Louisiana
Monroe basketball. It's not a team that's in my wheelhouse,
but my number always likes them, and they seem to cover.
Like if I'm just going over the last couple weeks,
they cover against Miami, covered a big number against South Alabama,
took them to overtime, covered against Kansas State. I believe
they covered against Texas State last time out as a
nine and a half point dog. And the game against
Southern Southern Miss. I think they hung around for a
while and maybe just failed to get inside the number
in that one. We already have a rematch between this
is This is kind of you know, interesting early January
and we're already looking at a Sun Belt rematch here. Uh,
these two teams have played Louisiana lapaet won the game
seventy six sixty two at Monroe earlier this season. That
was a game that they didn't cover. But I guess
my point here is Monroe has been really like scrappy
as a dog, especially a bigger underdog. And plus seven
and a half here against the Louisiana Lapaete team, that's
nothing to write home about this year. Rob, three and
thirteen in their own respect. So I would have to
lean with my numbers here and lean toward the dog
Monroe plus seven and a half. Garth wants to talk
about the total. Do you have anything specifically for the
team total? Over Garth, I think we're correlated a little
bit there. If I like the dog plus seven and
a half to get there, it's probably gonna have to
go over six. It's sixty six and a half. What
do you think about this one? Rob?
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think to Garth's point, Listen, first things first,
it's a it's a stark contrast, right, raging Cajuns want
to just play at a snail's pace. One of the
slowest in the country, Monroe has picked up the tempo
this year to the point where there you could almost
call them extreme forty fastest adjusted tempo in the nation.
Offensively only score sixty two the first game. How about this?
They only made fifteen shots total from the field in
that first game and still got themselves to sixty two points.
To me, that's kind of intriguing when you get the
sixty two points only making fifteen shots, and here your
team total is only sixty five and a half and
you play with extreme pace. They got Texas State to
play fast. It's a second time around. I say this
a lot in both college football, college basketball, NFL football,
or excuse me, NBA basketball. College basketball coaches love to
fix what went wrong the first time around, and they
can study game film, and I'm pretty sure Monroe, fourteen
point loser only making fifteen shots, can go back to
the tape and find ways that they can score four
more points and get over this team total. So I'm
kind of with Garth here. I mean, it wasn't something
that I had on my short list, probably because I
didn't really notice the team total until I just looked
it up here after he posted it, And at sixty
five and a half, I'd have to agree with him.
It looks way too low. There's a price to pay
with it in some places, but you can get as
cheap as fifteen cents attached to his sixty five and
a half. So for me, again. A lot went wrong
for Uel Monroe the first time they played at Louisiana's pace. Somewhat,
they didn't make shots, got to sixty two. You're asking
for four more here second time around, and I'd be very,
very surprised if they didn't get the sixty six in
this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you remember, you remember who wants to be a millionaire?
When you could phone a friend. I wish I could.
I wish I could just patch by you in for
one minute, like like Regis, Hey, we need to call
by you here. Patch. I me get the one minute
just to ask about these small Louisiana based teams, because
that is certainly his wheelhouse and it is very much
not mine. So I'm just gonna pull up what he
says here Louisiana me beat Monroe the game after Coach
White got thrown out of the Southern Miss game. I mean,
what other show are you getting that type of uh?
You know that that is just a great nugget right there.
That was a ULM that you That ULM game was
a rally he's talking about for Louisiana Lafayette right this
is now, So that was a good spot for laugha
Yet this being probably the less like a lesser spot
for them. Now they're at home favorite once again, my
number likes Louisiana Monroe. It seems to every single time
this team plays. I'm only at six point eight here,
so again it's not a huge it's not a huge difference,
but it's my number is shading to the Monroe side,
so I lean toward Monroe, and Garth, if I'm gonna
lean toward Monroe, I could only lean toward the team
total over because as you know, when it's an eight
point underdog, like a lot of times, there's some correlation there.
If you're gonna cover that that number, chances are you're
gonna have to hit the team total over. That's already
being like sort of shaded toward the under, which would
be which would be in this case. So I'm with you, Garth.
I like your look on the over. Me personally, I
like the Louisiana Monroe side look a little bit better.
I don't think there's a big enough edge there to
make my card, but it is. You know, it's kind
of something that it definitely works. The look if you
want to bet that game.
Speaker 2: Real quick, just for Garth. In conclusion on that one.
Last twelve games Monroe has played, eleven of those have
gone over sixty five and a half team total.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: So again eleven and one above this number in their
last twelve the pace has a lot to do with it.
I'd have to agree with Garth on that one. Louisiana
Monroe looks like a very bitable team total over.
Speaker 1: Rob, I'm gonna give you the floor in a minute
to discuss your parlay legs. So I'm gonna give you
about sixty seconds to think about what game you want
to talk about while I talk fish. Yes, this is
a Bang Energy drink right here. It is peach Mango.
It's delicious. I love this one. And I'm telling you
right now if any of you have a line, if
there's a Bang or a Rain executive that watches the
show on a daily basis, or anyone has a line
to one of them, if anyone wants to throw the
bag at Trig, I will be your spokesperson. Those are
my two go tos, and so if they want to
fight out, if I will come on this show and
drink a Bang Energy drink every day, that is my
go to like way to start my day.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: It's either Rain or Bang. They're like one A and
one B. So again I'm impartial. Whoever you know I
can be bought ROB is what I'm saying. Whoever wants
to throw the bag at Trig for the to be
the spokesperson, I like them equally. But yeah, this this
fish head, this flavor peach mango is is solid one
of the better flavors all right. After that quick promo
for Bang that I'm not going to get paid for
a Rob, do you have an idea of what you
want to what you want to fire out for your parlay? Way?
I do.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna shave this one in half and ISO this game, Adam,
it's gonna be out West Cal Poly Slow and Cal
State Northridge. A couple of teams we've talked about a bunch,
a couple of teams that absolutely love pace up and
down the floor. I'm not gonna discourage anybody off of
full game over here. In this instance, that number is
one seventy four and a half. It's been bet up
by four points. But when I looked at it pretty
extensively this morning, I find more value in playing the
first half over eighty three. A couple of things here
Polly Slow last couple of games has been held far
below their offensive average, and a lot of it's due
to match up style where the two opponents want to
go a little bit slower. Cal Poly Slow didn't make
enough shots to get the to the way they'd like
it to be. But here Northridge is going to allow
them to do what they want to do, which is
get up and down. You just think back to the
UCLA game. I remember sky Clark saying that the first
half of that game they had no expectation of cal
Poly Slow coming out and running and banging threes the
way that they did to them, And then mc cronin's
team had to put somewhat of a stop to it,
not a total stop, but enough to get them margin.
They can score, they go fast, Northridge can score more,
they go faster. And Northridge was actually held by Santa Barbara,
which again, when you play Santa Barbara, you're going to
be in a more methodical pace. They weren't allowed to
really break out and do what they do. So I
always say styles make matchups. To me, this is a
game full of opportunities for scoring. I don't see a
heck of a lot of defensive resistance on either side
of the floor here. Obviously moneyes with full game total,
and again I'm not going to argue anybody off of it,
but eighty three to me just seems like this should
be a game where you know, you find at least
a forty four to forty halftime score is what you
need to get over the number here, and I don't
see any reason why that wouldn't happen unless somebody comes
out ice cold. But again, just to use one of
my handicapping elements, which is bounce back, it's a nice
bounce back game for Polly Slow to be able to
just break out and do what they want to do,
and the same for Northridge. So to me, Adam makes
for a great high scoring game. Full game over still
available if you want to play it, but I think
that first half shows more value. So for me, it's
gonna be first half total over eighty three Cal Poly Slow,
Cal State North Richard Rob.
Speaker 1: I know we talked about this off air. I can't
remember if we ever actually brought it up on the show,
but I said it would come up at some point
this year. I think Northridge put those black walls in
in their gym because they are such an offensive oriented
team that it gives them. It's almost like if you
watch a north Ridge game at what I think they
still call the Matta Dome, which is awesome, by the way,
that's just a great name for a facility. I think
it's now branded whoever whatever Bank. You know, all these
places are something something Bank Arena, but like it used
to be the Mata Dome, and they put these black
almost like backdrops, and I don't think I've ever seen
anything quite like it at any venue that I've been in,
where it's like they almost put a shooter's eye in,
similar to a batter's eye in baseball, where you've got
like the better fields. Like if you I've ever listened
to baseball players talk about hitting, they love hitting at
Chase Field because that there's that huge batter's eye. They
love cores for obvious reasons. But they've got a nice
view back there, you know, just nice unobstructed view. That's
what you're looking at in cal State Northridge's home gym.
Unobstructed view, dark backdrop. It seems like everything Northridge throws
up and this gym goes in. Not to mention they
are they are a very good offensive team, they get
up and down, they put a lot of points on
the board regardless. But man, it just seems like everything
this team fires up in their home gym goes in.
I think the visitors benefit from it too. I mean,
we've seen some really good visiting offensive performances from teams
on the road at northwardge this year. Troy is one
that comes to mind that that game was just that
neither team could miss. So again, I can't argue with
you on that, and it's been in my head for
a while, like teams are probably gonna score when they
play Northridge in Northridge because it's a very friendly, you know,
friendly shooting sort of backdrop, and Northridge is going to
play the style of game that allows you to score points.
So Rob, I'm very much with you. That's a great
sort of fine. Doesn't surprise me one bit that the
market is that won somebody four and a half in
the full game total, or that it was better up.
But yeah, that that first half shouldn't take them long
to get going, doesn't really ever take Northridge long to
get going. So eighty three for the parlor, you're looking
at eighty three, and that's first half, okay.
Speaker 2: And it's still it's one ten, probably because it was
bid up off of the eighty two and a half opener,
but minus one tense. We're not paying anything special to
get that number.
Speaker 1: I'll pull by you back up again here. Yeah, I
mean the way cal Poly they have run out of
gas at times this year, but you're really not worried
about that in a game like this if you only
need the first twenty, I'm with you. That's a that's
a great call, Rob. There's gonna be a lot of
shots being put up, and again, very friendly shooting site
lines there in that gym, so hopefully you think a
lot of those go in. All right, let's get one
more in. Let's see, let's get let's get one more
in here before the horn. Let's go. Let here's a
good one. Let's yeah, here we go, Steve. That that's
this was one of like two I was gonna pick.
Let's go back to the West Coast conference. Give the
show a little bit of shelf life since I've since
I've talked about a game that's gonna start at noon,
so we got to give the show a little shelf life.
Let's go back out West Seattle, Oregon State the Beavers
at home Seattle, listen at who if I'm Seattle, I've
got a call into the league office. Like we get
to the West Coast Conference, Okay, this is our first
year here, and they fed them like the top three
teams and like their first three games good San Francisco, Gonzaga,
Saint Mary's right off, right off the rip, welcome to
the WCC. If you're Seattle, right like you could, you
could not ask for a tougher San Francisco, Washington State
and then on the road Gonzaga and then having to
go to Saint Mary's after the Gonzaga game. That is brutal.
That is as brutal as it gets if you are
talking about a start to conference and now they have
to stay on the road up to Corpallis to take
on the Beavers of Oregon State. So Seattle comes in
one in three. I don't know. I feel like they've
played good enough to be better than that, but hey,
it's just hard to get over the hump against a
team like Gonzaga, even if you do play well. So
Seattle on the road tonight. Are you interested in the
RedHawks here at all?
Speaker 2: Robto, I am the one thing that concerns me. Well,
first of all, what the positive for Seattle is is
it becomes a step down in class. Right, You've just
come through road games against Gonzaga Saint Mary's, got a
taste of what it's like. Pushed gonzagaa overtime, a little
bit of confidence there. Like I said the other day
in that Saint Mary's game, they just ran out of gas.
That those games were spaced by a couple of days,
and after going overtime with all that emotion, coming back
to play Saint Mary's at Saint Mary's just too difficult
a task. So you would think that this game they've
had a chance to recruit. Like I say, it's a
little bit of a step down in class, it's actually
a huge step down in class when you play Oregon State,
So I would think Seattle will be ready for this part.
That worries me. Well, let's give you one more positive
for Seattle here. Oregon State's the same one in three
in conference as they are, and Oregon State's one and
three against lesser competition. Right, They've lost a Pacific Washington State,
and they did lose huge to Santa Clara, but their
one win was on this floor and they beat San Francisco,
which is impressive in this league. So you got that
little lingering thought that maybe home floor means something to them.
I don't think Seattle's probably the better team at this
point in time, Adam. If you can go to Gonzaga
and do what they did with an a effort, if
they bring an a effort here, it's probably a win
by a bucket, which is all that's required here. You're
a one and a half point favorite. I get it's
a road favorite. I don't know how imposed cor Vallas
is gonna be to them after you've been through the
Kennel and Saint Mary's. So to me, I think I
could make a slight lean towards excuse me, that was
the first half line. I'm still hooked on first half
lines here. Shattle out obviously a four and a half
point favorite full game, and maybe first half is worth
to look up by a bucket at the end of
the first half, because I would expect Seattle to come
out with a certain amount of fire here on the
road after being beaten the way they were at Saint Mary's.
Speaker 1: Rob the books love this Seattle team. They are they
They've sucked the value out of Seattle and essentially every
game since the Washington win, and even in that game,
the number move considerably towards Seattle in that game as
the day went on, four and a half, four, four
and a half. Like you're laying a premium on the
road right there. But something you said, like Oregon State
has not had the crowds that they used to get
when it was like big time pack twelve games in
core Vallas, it's been I've been a little bit dis
point in turning on Oregon State games this year and
seeing like a half full arena. So there hasn't been much.
There hasn't been a ton of juice in that building,
not like there used to be in my opinion, And
you know, something I noticed with this matchup that I
think is very favorable to Seattle. So I complimented on
a couple of occasions. They're they're bigs from an offensive standpoint,
very creative offensive bigs. They're they're they're they're big, like
they have the size they can finish, you know, but
but what they haven't really been able to do is rebound.
Like you know, some of some of the stuff on
the defensive end of the floor hasn't been quite as good.
You know, they they they've gotten crushed on the glass
in a couple of these games. But Oregon State's not
going to do that. Oregon State's one of the worst
rebounding teams in the country. They play, they play a
lot of zone. Wayne Tinkle almost plays all zone, and
Seattle can shoot it. So you know this is you're
talking about Seattle top hundred three point shooting team. They
have offensive bigs with skill, meaning that they can probably
work the ball into his zone and their bigs may
be able to finish in against the zone. So I
like the matchup for Seattle, But man, they are asking
you to play a premium with this team on the road.
If I could have gotten like a cheap money line
or Seattle minus two minus two and a half, I
would be all over this. At four to four and
a half, I just feel like that's right in that
range where they could win a close game. It's just
just a much tougher number to cover. So Rob, I'm
gonna piggyback what you said about the first half. I
think the way you play this game is Seattle first half.
If it loses, be ready to come over the top.
With your Seattle second half bet and then you kind
of take that four and a half out of the
equation BD in the chats, the Seattle minus one and
a half first half is a stronger play. Yeah, I
suppose if it's available for sure, maybe the money line
being cheap enough in the first half and you do
the same thing, But I would or maybe this is
late enough in the day where you can find something
to money line parlay into Seattle. All of those things
are options. I just at four and a half, man,
I feel like the books sort of nailed the number there.
They're they're they're really forcing you to play pay a
premium to back Seattle. All right, we are at the
end of the show. Time to recap. The parlay four
percent play for me goes early today, so you're gonna
know my mood by about two thirty pm Eastern. For
the day, I've got Towsan on the money line. It
is a twelve thirty pm Eastern start a four percent
play for clients, so you're getting it here for free
on the show. Please check out the package that Rob
and I have available right now. It's all of our
plays for three days, both of us in college basketball
full analysis. Just like you get on the show, You'll
get in those plays and you won't have to hear
me talk about it. You just get to read it.
I think that's a huge plus. I said it the
last couple of days. Towsan money line for me. Then
go do something for eight to ten hours and then
come back at ten pm tonight for Rob Vino, Cal Northridge,
Cal Poly first half over eighty two over eighty two,
eighty three. Sorry, so that's our two teamer for today.
Towson call it minus one. I'm gonna the probably is
gonna be plus two fifty. I'm gonna put the you
know it's gonna allow for a little bit of a
juice on that towsand money line. You're gonna have Towson
money line, Cal Northridge, Cal Polly first half over eighty three.
That's the two teamer for today. We need one this week.
We haven't hit one yet this week. I'm feeling good
about today's and we'll see you back here to close
out the week tomorrow morning, ten am. More Full Court Press.
Have a great day, everyone, go go grab that three
day package for us. We'll see you guys tomorrow