Speaker 1: Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to
Speaker 1: you today about a way that you can help support
Speaker 1: the podcast if you're not already to support the channel
Speaker 1: is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon
Speaker 1: memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when
Speaker 1: you sign up, you get access to all of our
Speaker 1: episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean,
Speaker 1: we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers,
Speaker 1: but this is the biggest and best way that you
Speaker 1: can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to,
Speaker 1: and we really appreciate that, So go and check us
Speaker 1: out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Iizon. I'm dmiitch you.
Speaker 2: Of course you have Andy Milburn and Mith mulroy and
Speaker 2: the big news today is the ASID regime in Syria
Speaker 2: has fallen. Mick, what you what's on your radar with this?
Speaker 3: But I think the first thing to say is not
Speaker 3: only was it unexpected how quickly the ASSAD regime collapsed,
Speaker 3: but also that it happened quite frankly. Just to be
Speaker 3: you know, straightforward with it, I don't know a lot
Speaker 3: of people, even the people that follow this very closely,
Speaker 3: and I know we had Charles On, Charles lister On
Speaker 3: just recently who follows this probably as close as anybody
Speaker 3: that I know that really predicted this was going to happen.
Speaker 3: That said, if you look back and hide sights twenty twenty, right,
Speaker 3: you can see the issues that could have led to this,
Speaker 3: which is Russia fully engaged in a war of their
Speaker 3: own choice and its significantly degraded their capabilities, especially outside
Speaker 3: of the Ukraine theater. Aran Hesbolah obviously getting systemmatically dismantled
Speaker 3: by Israel, and Lebanon can't afford just to have all
Speaker 3: there are a lot of their forces fighting for Assad
Speaker 3: in his country, So that was some of the factors
Speaker 3: that led to I think this really quick collapse of
Speaker 3: the regime, and strategically it's a big failure for Iran
Speaker 3: and Russia. So that's a good thing. And obviously Assad
Speaker 3: himself thirteen years of the civil war, responsible for hundreds
Speaker 3: of thousands, if not over five hundred thousand civilian deaths,
Speaker 3: half of the population being displaced in many millions leaving
Speaker 3: the country. So there's no love loss. There shouldn't be
Speaker 3: for anybody when it comes to the Assad regime. But
Speaker 3: the question of course is who is hts Are they
Speaker 3: truly moderated version of what they started, which was affiliate
Speaker 3: essentially of all kinda in Syria? Is Jalani this you know,
Speaker 3: new kind of leader or is he essentially just saying
Speaker 3: what he needs to say now, just like the Taliban
Speaker 3: did during negotiations for our withdrawal. And even if he is,
Speaker 3: how is this going to play out? Is this really
Speaker 3: going to be a transition to a government selected by
Speaker 3: the people? And during that time, you know, what about
Speaker 3: the significant weapons that saw it have chemical weapons, all
Speaker 3: these things falling into the wrong hands? Does this turn
Speaker 3: toward a civil war within a civil war? So there's
Speaker 3: a lot of questions I think that are still out
Speaker 3: there that we can force talk here, but there it's
Speaker 3: something that I think is very concerning not only to
Speaker 3: the United States but the region. Right the region is
Speaker 3: concerned about a mass exodus of refugees. And of course,
Speaker 3: we have nine hundred servicemen and women still active in
Speaker 3: Syria and the Eastern part and according to the President's
Speaker 3: statements today, he's essentially doubling down on their need to
Speaker 3: be there. So that could change with the incoming administration,
Speaker 3: don't know, but that's another factor in this whole, this
Speaker 3: whole saga that's played out of the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 4: Yeah, when when we were talking to David McCloskey, just
Speaker 4: you know, just last week, it seemed like it was
Speaker 4: going to be even though you know, Harmer had falled
Speaker 4: and they're advancing on harms, I think, I mean, they
Speaker 4: can sense that somebody us I mean, well, well not
Speaker 4: that that that's a very low bar, I know, but David,
Speaker 4: at least, i'd say, you have has you know, quite
Speaker 4: a quite an interesting take on this. But the perception
Speaker 4: was that Damascus would probably prove too tough and not
Speaker 4: to crack uh and that the you know, the Russians
Speaker 4: would would at least rally to defend the capital. But
Speaker 4: obviously that didn't happen. I think, you know, to mixed
Speaker 4: point follow on, it's interesting when unexpected strategic events happened
Speaker 4: so quickly like this to see who who is who
Speaker 4: among the major players do have a kind of a
Speaker 4: backup plan, and you know, clearly Russia and Iran didn't.
Speaker 4: They didn't anticipate this happened. Russia was involved in kind
Speaker 4: of a you know, it was focused, has been focused
Speaker 4: in the last week or so on evacuating its citizens,
Speaker 4: getting its essential personnel out of there, even out of
Speaker 4: tartlets at naval port. Doesn't mean it's given up on
Speaker 4: these bases. So I would add that as a note
Speaker 4: of caution, and that there's negotiations already taking place and
Speaker 4: cutter between the Turks who are backing HTS and the Russians,
Speaker 4: so something, something may evolve from that, whereby the Russians
Speaker 4: still maintained a presence in serious so it's too early
Speaker 4: to celebrate. So the you know, the Turks I are
Speaker 4: well placed. It may be good news for Europe and
Speaker 4: the United States saw no crocodile talis for as odd
Speaker 4: if there is a measure of stability, and that's a
Speaker 4: big if. And the you know, from the US perspective,
Speaker 4: aside from hitting Islamic state targets as a kind of
Speaker 4: a warning, preemptive warning, it's not clear that we had
Speaker 4: a contingency plan or have a contingency plan on the
Speaker 4: shelf to handle this year. Israelis obviously did I mean
Speaker 4: they're conducting a series of strikes right now to prevent
Speaker 4: a major weapons systems from falling into the wrong hands.
Speaker 4: They moved almost instantly into the area beyond the go
Speaker 4: On Heights as a buffer zone. So clearly, you know,
Speaker 4: that wasn't something they threw together on the fly. That
Speaker 4: is something they had anticipated and they're reacting too. But
Speaker 4: you know, a as a note of caution, typically when
Speaker 4: brutal dictatorships and good things don't happen, at least not immediately.
Speaker 4: Think about Yugoslavia and perhaps not a brutal dictator, definitely
Speaker 4: a dictator. Think about Libya after Gaddafi, you know, still
Speaker 4: a mess, and of course Saddan after the fall of Saddam.
Speaker 4: So history does not suggest that this, regardless of whether
Speaker 4: Jelani is is sincere about what he's saying about having
Speaker 4: an kind of an inclusive supporting an inclusive administration, and
Speaker 4: he's even saying HDS doesn't have to be the leader
Speaker 4: in this administration, even if he is sincere in that
Speaker 4: recent historical examples suggest that we're in for a period
Speaker 4: of extreme turbulence Sinceyria.
Speaker 3: Yeah, agreed for sure.
Speaker 4: Well one word thing real quick on Julyana, I was
Speaker 4: interested to see that he was rolled up by the
Speaker 4: Americans in Mosall in two thousand and five, which happens
Speaker 4: to be. You know, it's funny how things come together. Carillo,
Speaker 4: who now hit Syntcom, was a battalion commander in Mostall
Speaker 4: two thousand and five, which I know because I was
Speaker 4: attached to his battalion as an advisor, and according to
Speaker 4: the Washington Post, spent five years in Jilani we're talking
Speaker 4: about in US detention. He was a friend or at
Speaker 4: least they who a colleague of Bagdaddy, who headed the
Speaker 4: Islamic State before they you know, they broke with the
Speaker 4: Islamic State back in when it was twenty fourteen, and
Speaker 4: as Mick said, the Our News Refront, which Jilani headed
Speaker 4: was definitely and openly and ol Cada affiliate. Since then,
Speaker 4: you know, Jolani's gone after both ISIS and al Qaeda,
Speaker 4: but that means little because even if he has reformed,
Speaker 4: there are other factors at play. And the guys who
Speaker 4: entered the Prime minute this office, who made it into
Speaker 4: Damascus kind of in this circle government buildings fus were
Speaker 4: not HDS dudes, they were they were other sunny extremist rebels.
Speaker 4: So you know, it would be a mistake to say
Speaker 4: that Jilani that that the future of Syria is even
Speaker 4: in Jilanne's hands.
Speaker 3: That's true, and we might see this breakdown. Uh, you know,
Speaker 3: there are coalitions, so it's not in their interests to
Speaker 3: be a coalition, right, Like I said, their main objective
Speaker 3: has been accomplished, and now it's we'll find out, you know,
Speaker 3: whether some would like to see it a wholesale Islamic
Speaker 3: state under the guys of ISIS, or whether there's any
Speaker 3: inclination really to do what Jilani is telling Western media right,
Speaker 3: so and and and on the it seems like every
Speaker 3: one of these guys got indoctrinated or got their PhD
Speaker 3: from being incarcerated by the United States in some form
Speaker 3: or fashion. Those are those are the ones that usually
Speaker 3: go on to lead the organization of which they started in, right,
Speaker 3: So that's something we might want to review in the future.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's fair exactly. That's a really good
Speaker 4: point because everyone is saying, wow, Jilani is like he's
Speaker 4: like a very professional military leader. When you look at HTS,
Speaker 4: they have drone units, they've got tank units, they're tank infant.
Speaker 4: You know, they've even if you watch some of the
Speaker 4: videos they seem to have figured out tank infantry integration,
Speaker 4: a lot of things that that in the not all
Speaker 4: Western militaries are done. And you're thinking, where the hell
Speaker 4: did he learn this? It wouldn't be surprising if he
Speaker 4: spent some time incarceration learning much of this doctrine, our
Speaker 4: own doctrine. I mean, after all, that's what Sinma did
Speaker 4: with the Israelis.
Speaker 3: That's exactly right, right, they learned their enemy.
Speaker 4: So what's happened to a sad mik? I mean, is it?
Speaker 4: I know he appears of it appeared in Moscow, but
Speaker 4: you think that's that's for real? Jason commented it might
Speaker 4: be his body doubles, and that was there was There
Speaker 4: were comments and it looked like credible comments on in
Speaker 4: Twitterland suggesting that his plane had been shot down last night.
Speaker 3: Yes, and a lot of media organizations were falling that
Speaker 3: that thought it was credible. It was an IL seventy
Speaker 3: six that apparently was shot down. Maybe that was the case,
Speaker 3: and maybe he just wasn't on it. Russia, their official spokesperson,
Speaker 3: is saying that he has received asylum and his family
Speaker 3: in Moscow. So could it be a body double? I
Speaker 3: don't know how long they would or why they wouldn't
Speaker 3: necessarily find that helpful to do rather than just acknowledge
Speaker 3: his death. But he'll have to make some kind of
Speaker 3: appearance soon. But it's clear he's not going back. So
Speaker 3: even if he made it out, he is, you know,
Speaker 3: going to be living in Moscow.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Twitter was on fire yesterday about the plane crash
Speaker 2: and stuff.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I think Jason was joking honestly about the body double thing.
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 2: I mean is does he form a government in exile
Speaker 2: and stuff like that and play, you know, singing that
Speaker 2: tune of like you know, I'm gonna become I'm gonna
Speaker 2: come back and all that or what?
Speaker 4: What do you think? It's difficult to mention because his
Speaker 4: even as loyalist, left the Seeking ship like rats, you.
Speaker 2: Know what I mean, even it seems like there was
Speaker 2: a negotiation.
Speaker 3: Or I never heard of you. Yeah, yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: look how fast they just just melted away? Right, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't see. I mean, he has no real popular support.
Speaker 3: He was a strong man who used his brutal tactics
Speaker 3: to get people to ben to his will, and that
Speaker 3: didn't work. It had to be Russia, right, He had
Speaker 3: to have support to even get to where he was.
Speaker 3: I don't think there's any chance that he would even
Speaker 3: entertain the idea. Being a government in exile, they would
Speaker 3: have any opportunity to.
Speaker 4: Come back, I suppose. I mean, it's as we said,
Speaker 4: it's early days, and I'm not I'm not looking for
Speaker 4: false glimmers of hope. But it is remarkable actually that
Speaker 4: the transition has been as orderly as it has. I mean,
Speaker 4: not transition, I mean if you look, the Ahts supposed
Speaker 4: a curfew that doesn't appear to be widespread looting except
Speaker 4: in you know, if you exclude a sad personal personal
Speaker 4: house and a few other places. There's been some clashes
Speaker 4: between I believe, between the Turks or turk or rather
Speaker 4: Turkish backed rebels and the Kurds in the in the
Speaker 4: northeast of the country, and of course some clashes between
Speaker 4: the Israelis and the rebels in the vicinity of Golden Heights.
Speaker 4: But aside from that, so far things seem to be
Speaker 4: relatively quiet. The rebels have. The other thing is, rather
Speaker 4: than launch into kind of a depthification process, the rebels
Speaker 4: uh or Jili has appealed personally to police and civilian authorities,
Speaker 4: you know, as saw it loyalists remain in that post
Speaker 4: pending pending the announcement of He says it's a unity government.
Speaker 4: So again, I don't want to be pollyannerish, but at
Speaker 4: least these are good scigns. It's more than we did
Speaker 4: when we invaded Iraq.
Speaker 3: Yeah right, we're responsible for the deepst sptification. But the
Speaker 3: prime minister did stay Jilali not to be confused with
Speaker 3: h HDS leader, but the actual Prime Minister of Syria
Speaker 3: did stay barely, and he's made statements that all the
Speaker 3: opposition forces have agreed to this transition. So I mean,
Speaker 3: we should want it to be the case, right, so
Speaker 3: we obviously should root against uh that happening. So it's
Speaker 3: a it's a truck maybe, but verify kind of scenario,
Speaker 3: like let's see what they do rather than what they say.
Speaker 3: But to your point, Andy, they are saying right, even
Speaker 3: even the opposition for USUS.
Speaker 4: So that's so far, so good. But you know, just
Speaker 4: kind of taking a step back. I mean, there are
Speaker 4: there are really and I know there are there are
Speaker 4: more factions. I'm simplifying this absurdly. Syria. You know, Syria
Speaker 4: analysts will will no doubt say, but I mean there
Speaker 4: are the four main factions right there, the Turkish Bats,
Speaker 4: Sunni rebels, of which AS is the strongest but not
Speaker 4: the only group. And and previously they're up in the
Speaker 4: northwest they governed an area around it. That there's the
Speaker 4: Kurds you know, who essentially the SDF, but also the
Speaker 4: YPG who are in the in the north and east.
Speaker 4: And then there's and I'm not sure this is still
Speaker 4: the case how strong these guys are, but there was
Speaker 4: as a kind of Jordanian slash US backed rebel group
Speaker 4: in the south. And then you have the Alla White
Speaker 4: loyalists who are along the along the coast, and each
Speaker 4: one of those groups has its own army, right, so
Speaker 4: I mean, the the the potential for civil war to
Speaker 4: continue is still there. But perhaps you know one incentive
Speaker 4: for that not happening, aside from you know, Turkish Katari
Speaker 4: diplomacy with well based basically Turkish Katari diplomacy, one is
Speaker 4: the fact that the Turksen and Kutter have a have
Speaker 4: a plan for a gas gas pipeline to run from
Speaker 4: Cutter to Bulgaria across Syria, which would be good news
Speaker 4: for everyone in Europe because it would reduce dependency on
Speaker 4: on Russian gas and of course good news for the
Speaker 4: US interests if that and of course Cutter and Turkey,
Speaker 4: so you know, so that that's important because both those
Speaker 4: countries have funded HDS and the most powerful rebel groups
Speaker 4: and now they stand to benefit from having that cast
Speaker 4: oil cas platform. And then there is the incentive reconstruction itself.
Speaker 4: I mean, Syria has been devastated that you know, the
Speaker 4: cost of reconstruction is estimated around two hundred billion dollars
Speaker 4: money coming in and all those groups could potentially benefit
Speaker 4: from that. So if if presented in the right way,
Speaker 4: and then I hate to, I hate to turn things
Speaker 4: over to Otawan and the Katori's, but certainly I don't.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure how much of an active stance U
Speaker 4: United States is going to take in this. Then then
Speaker 4: at least there is a strong incentive to maintain maintain order.
Speaker 3: And that's important, right, so you know, whether Turkey and
Speaker 3: Katar benefit, as long as it benefits the Syrian people.
Speaker 3: And then the case is the oil pipeline Europe right
Speaker 3: encountering Russia. I mean, that is obviously something and it
Speaker 3: would I would assume it would bring some kind of
Speaker 3: resources to the Syrian people right that if they're going
Speaker 3: to have this pipeline going through their country, that they
Speaker 3: would get some of the benefits. And obviously the reconstruction
Speaker 3: is to benefit them. So you know, if countries are
Speaker 3: willing to go into a conflict area and help do
Speaker 3: the re construction, then good ale. To be frank, it's
Speaker 3: it's not for the countries that sit on the sideline
Speaker 3: and criticize, So that I think is super important. The
Speaker 3: other part that you brought up, Andy that has a
Speaker 3: lot of people questioning is just what is Syria? Right?
Speaker 3: So you have large segments of you mentioned all the
Speaker 3: different groups, the Alloyhites on the coast, the Sunni Arabs
Speaker 3: you know in the north west, the Kourgs taking a
Speaker 3: lot arch portion of the country in the east, and
Speaker 3: then the Arab group, which I do believe took part
Speaker 3: in actual going into Damascus on the Jordan border. I mean,
Speaker 3: if they don't come up with a comprehensive way to
Speaker 3: incorporate all the groups of Syria, they don't have a Syria.
Speaker 3: I guess it's another way to put it. They're just
Speaker 3: gonna they all have an army, as you said, and
Speaker 3: they all have territory. So and unless other sides are
Speaker 3: willing to fight and have the ability to win, which
Speaker 3: they don't, we're essentially going to see a completely partitioned
Speaker 3: Syria that isn't actually a functioning country. So if the group,
Speaker 3: the groups that are helping in the transition don't go
Speaker 3: toward incorporating all other groups, then they're not going to
Speaker 3: run Assyria as a country. They're going to run whatever
Speaker 3: section of the country that they already are running.
Speaker 4: I guess, yeah, that's I mean, that's that's a great
Speaker 4: point that Took's already very nervous about and have been
Speaker 4: about the course about the SDF and the SDF against
Speaker 4: Syria Democratic forces at the Kurdish Bank and the YEPG
Speaker 4: and the area of Syria that they control right now
Speaker 4: is actually very important part of Syria. I mean, it
Speaker 4: has the most of the oil fields, I believe, and
Speaker 4: it's I know, the term bread basket is overused and
Speaker 4: it's difficult to think of the bread basket in Syria,
Speaker 4: but it is Syrious bread basket. It's the most terrible
Speaker 4: land up there in the northeast in the country that
Speaker 4: is largely desert, and so that's certainly you know, the
Speaker 4: probably strong Turkish and certainly Turkish proxy incentives to take
Speaker 4: some of that land back, and that could be behind
Speaker 4: some of the fighting that's taking place now in Manbish
Speaker 4: and Raka on that scene between the Kurds and Arab
Speaker 4: Turkish back forces. But what do you think about the Russians?
Speaker 4: I mean, the first all, do you think they were
Speaker 4: taken as by surprise as everyone else. Do you think
Speaker 4: this was a conscious decision to kind of.
Speaker 3: I think they were surprised, I do. I think we
Speaker 3: would have seen some effort to surge forces there, to
Speaker 3: try to caution it early on, rather than allow it
Speaker 3: to get momentum. I think they were caught flat footed,
Speaker 3: just like the rest of us. And by the time
Speaker 3: they made the decision, you know, the ball was rolling
Speaker 3: and they realized that they would have to contribute a
Speaker 3: lot to a fight that would largely probably require some
Speaker 3: ground forces since Hesblo removed a lot of theirs, and
Speaker 3: they weren't willing to do it, nor did they have it.
Speaker 3: And then when they started moving their assets out of
Speaker 3: you know, Tartuse and Latakia, I think that was an
Speaker 3: indicator to everybody that they weren't going to fully support
Speaker 3: the regime and that's when you know, all of his
Speaker 3: regime forces can see that too, and then it just
Speaker 3: it starts building on itself. They start abandoning their positions
Speaker 3: and were drawing and just disappearing, and then it just
Speaker 3: becomes FATA complete. And that's what happened. So I think
Speaker 3: Russia realizes that it lost quite a bit in this,
Speaker 3: but they also realized that they didn't have the ability
Speaker 3: once it was really Roland to do anything about it.
Speaker 4: So kind of the man at the hour, I mean,
Speaker 4: it seems to me the guy who emerges from this
Speaker 4: as far as foreign leaders, in the best position is Duwan.
Speaker 4: And mean, I know it's impossible to guess what he's
Speaker 4: going to do, but the Russians are going to be
Speaker 4: asking him for some kind of concessions to be allowed
Speaker 4: back in, I assume. And yet Dawan Erdawan hits a
Speaker 4: country that is part of NATO, And it would seem
Speaker 4: to me, I hope that the United States is leaning
Speaker 4: on him the other way to say no, I mean,
Speaker 4: what are your thoughts on that? Which way do you
Speaker 4: That's an impossible question. To which way do you think
Speaker 4: he's gonna lean?
Speaker 3: It is a difficult question. But the question that isn't
Speaker 3: difficult is that US should be leaning on right, we
Speaker 3: should be. They are part of NADO, they are a
Speaker 3: long time key strategic ally of the United States. We
Speaker 3: have an opportunity to hand Russia significant defeat, strategic defeat
Speaker 3: UH and we expect them.
Speaker 4: At no cost, no cost to us.
Speaker 3: No cost, no cost to us. So this is not
Speaker 3: exactly I think this is now. Of course he's going
Speaker 3: to ask something for us, right, So that's the way
Speaker 3: the world works. But I you know, and we've you know,
Speaker 3: when I was in Pentagon, we had these discussions all
Speaker 3: the time about the YPG, the Kurds, b KK, et cetera.
Speaker 3: My take, and I don't know if it holds an
Speaker 3: each way with President hurt One is if you're concerned
Speaker 3: about the Kurds, then US being with that should make
Speaker 3: you feel better. Right, They're not going to attack our
Speaker 3: strategic treaty to ally the presence of the United States.
Speaker 3: I don't think the SDF would do that anyway. But
Speaker 3: you know, without getting into the you know, the whole discussion,
Speaker 3: I always thought the best argument we had, but certainly
Speaker 3: was it did holdsway with many of our Turkish allies
Speaker 3: was that the United States being with the Kurds is
Speaker 3: a positive for Turkey. Right, So if that's going to
Speaker 3: be the quid pro quo, I hope that we don't
Speaker 3: go down that route. We need to stay. We need
Speaker 3: to ensure that our partners are Since your said, it's
Speaker 3: a very minor contribution that has had a very significant outcome,
Speaker 3: not just in terms of defeating ISIS and ensuring the
Speaker 3: enduring defeat, but strategically against Iran and Russia. And that
Speaker 3: the proof is right in front of us today. So
Speaker 3: hopefully that he can see that as well.
Speaker 4: What you mentioned concessions, What other concessions do you do
Speaker 4: you think he may ask for it? Did we have
Speaker 4: AI end up giving him the sixteens that was such
Speaker 4: a huge issue back in twenty sixteen, seventy five?
Speaker 3: No, no, thirty five? You know, so the question was
Speaker 3: the the S three hundreds that he was purchasing from Russia.
Speaker 4: Russia don't believe he.
Speaker 2: I don't think they got the F thirty fives.
Speaker 3: On turned the F three and I think they might have.
Speaker 3: I don't know, Maybe somebody we should look that up.
Speaker 3: I thought that we had offered to give them the
Speaker 3: F thirty fives, but they haven't been delivered yet. That's
Speaker 3: my last recollection of that, and maybe that's the that's
Speaker 3: the deal, right, Yeah, don't use Russian air muscle defense
Speaker 3: one because it sucks too. You can't. There's an issue
Speaker 3: of using that in close proximities to the thirty five.
Speaker 3: So that was the other issue. It was an operational
Speaker 3: security thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So they never got the F thirty fives because
Speaker 2: they were getting the S four hundred, like you said, yes, yeah, YEAHS.
Speaker 3: Four hundreds right, the most advanced one. So maybe that's
Speaker 3: part of the discussions when it comes to making sure
Speaker 3: that Russia is soundly defeated, is not allowed to go
Speaker 3: back in to maintain its warm water port or its
Speaker 3: air base, just a diplomatic presence like anybody else.
Speaker 2: So in terms of like US interests and national security interests,
Speaker 2: I mean, we have a legitimate interest in making sure
Speaker 2: that Syria doesn't become like Libya and like a bastion
Speaker 2: of like where terrorists can have camps, whether it's ISIS
Speaker 2: or any other. HTS is technically a terrorist organization, right,
Speaker 2: So like outside of like the economic because I don't
Speaker 2: think we would have like a foot to stand on
Speaker 2: in there unless Turkey really does a lot of.
Speaker 4: A lot of like.
Speaker 2: Helps us out what are those not what are those
Speaker 2: security goals? Like what are the objectives from now?
Speaker 3: Well too, I'm sorry, go ahead, no, you're go ahead.
Speaker 4: You know what one is to negate that, to deny
Speaker 4: that area to our enemies or but are you know
Speaker 4: at the Cereal or countries that whose interests are inevigable
Speaker 4: to our own, namely Iran and yes, Russia. It's long
Speaker 4: concerned us that Iran had I know it's a cliche,
Speaker 4: but had developed a land bridge from Iraq to the
Speaker 4: to to Lebanon, uh and so any interruption of that
Speaker 4: because all the all the disruption that came with that
Speaker 4: was against our interests. Of course, it's against our interests too,
Speaker 4: although some may not think so. To deny Russia a
Speaker 4: war water port in the Mediterranean, that's I would say
Speaker 4: number one. Number two is just having a stable energy
Speaker 4: producing country there and no longer a stucking chest wound
Speaker 4: that is disgorging immigrants across Europe. And it's you know,
Speaker 4: it'd be difficult to understate the destabilizing influence that the
Speaker 4: war has had across Europe. Since twenty eleven. I mean
Speaker 4: the flood of Syrian refugees. Turkey alone is home to
Speaker 4: what may come in it's millions, right, I think, something
Speaker 4: incredible like four million. But so is the rest of Europe.
Speaker 4: There isn't a country in Europe except for some niecent
Speaker 4: countries that have absolutely and actively blocked them, that is
Speaker 4: not home to large numbers of Syrian refugees. And the
Speaker 4: effect on the economy, the effect on geopolitics, you know,
Speaker 4: the brex It, the rise of populist parties in certainly
Speaker 4: in Hungary and for while they're in Poland and other
Speaker 4: countries in Europe, and the rise of the right, the
Speaker 4: New Right in Germany or directly related to the inflow
Speaker 4: of refugees, most of whom are Syrians. So you see
Speaker 4: what a destabilizing influence to war in Syria has had,
Speaker 4: you know, across at least across Europe. I would argue
Speaker 4: across the world, all of those things. Negating all of
Speaker 4: those things and enabling reconstruction, a stable government, an alternate
Speaker 4: source of energy for countries in Europe are things that
Speaker 4: are definitely in the interests of the United States.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's important to point out that the US.
Speaker 3: The only authority we have to be in Syria comes
Speaker 3: actually from the two thousand and two au MP right,
Speaker 3: the authorized US military force related to al Qaeda and
Speaker 3: its affiliates. Right, So you start with El Kaida, end
Speaker 3: up without Kaida in Iraq, and then ISIS, and therefore
Speaker 3: we are there. The authority, the legal authority to stay
Speaker 3: there is from that. So it's an important mission of
Speaker 3: itself obviously to defeat ISIS. I'm sure it doesn't come back.
Speaker 3: But the secondary benefits that I would say we got
Speaker 3: is everything Andy just said, right. So it's pushing back
Speaker 3: against Russia, it's pushing back against Iron, it's cutting off
Speaker 3: the Iran you know, corridor that brings arms to Hesbla.
Speaker 3: It's all of these things. But the authority is the
Speaker 3: au MF, the original au MF. So we were there
Speaker 3: to help enable a partner to defeat ISIS. But our
Speaker 3: presence there is beyond just that, and we get a
Speaker 3: lot of strategic benefit from it. And by the way,
Speaker 3: if we were every time we talked about reducing any
Speaker 3: of the forces. When I was in the Pentagon, the
Speaker 3: first thing we heard from is Israel, and then Jordan,
Speaker 3: and then it went down the line, the countries in
Speaker 3: the region do not want to see the United States
Speaker 3: leave here period. Period. They might have questions about, you know,
Speaker 3: what we're doing, who we're doing it, with all that stuff,
Speaker 3: but there's almost a universal from my experience believe that
Speaker 3: the US does help bring some stability in what would
Speaker 3: be complete chaos if we left. And that includes on
Speaker 3: Tauent with is in the southern border area of Jordan,
Speaker 3: and obviously all the physicians with the SDF in the east.
Speaker 3: But the US is there primarily for countering terrorism, but
Speaker 3: the secondary is countering Russia, countering Iran, and I think
Speaker 3: that's just as important. Now it's shown to be that
Speaker 3: it's actually.
Speaker 4: Effected our talk. By the way, is a very interesting
Speaker 4: place of being there a couple of times. I mean
Speaker 4: it is. I've got to be careful about using the
Speaker 4: term shithole because every time I say shithole on this
Speaker 4: podcast we get multiple complaints because it turns out it's
Speaker 4: someone's hometown, even Brooklyn. But it is the classic shithole,
Speaker 4: but a very strategically important one. And for a while
Speaker 4: we held it down with you know what was an
Speaker 4: aob It was a kind of reinforced company with a
Speaker 4: partner nation force, and everyone was asking, you know, you know,
Speaker 4: the media was asking why we're there, But it was
Speaker 4: a we were a strategic speed bump and we were
Speaker 4: carving out I mean it was more than that, but
Speaker 4: we were we were establishing just by our presence there,
Speaker 4: establishing a buffer zone that now is more important than ever.
Speaker 4: So to mix point, yeah, I would hope that we
Speaker 4: retain a presence there. Nine hundred dudes total in in
Speaker 4: the you know, the mid lower Euphrates Valley, which is
Speaker 4: it's a very small amount, but again goes and by
Speaker 4: the way, in a large bush, not all but a
Speaker 4: large portion of those special operations forces. So it goes
Speaker 4: again to why do we have special operations forces, small
Speaker 4: numbers achieving strategic effect. I think it's a great example
Speaker 4: working by with and through partner nation forces. The other thing,
Speaker 4: the other thing, the in answer your question as far
Speaker 4: as negating bad consequences and what follows on is remember this,
Speaker 4: the Russians have been pouring money and iron to a
Speaker 4: lesser extent, have been pouring money into the Assad regimes
Speaker 4: defense industry for a while. All right, I mean Assad
Speaker 4: has we know he has poison gas he's used it
Speaker 4: multiple times, or at least yeah, multiple, It is fair
Speaker 4: to saying more than once multiple times. You know, obviously
Speaker 4: he's got a fleet of jets, he's got a Even
Speaker 4: after the Israeli attacks, a significant anti air defense capability
Speaker 4: goes on and on. All of those assets falling into
Speaker 4: the wrong hands could spell bad things for stability in
Speaker 4: the Middle East and for the United States. It's interesting.
Speaker 4: We may not have had a contingency plan, but as
Speaker 4: I commentated, the Israelis did, and looking, you know, I'm
Speaker 4: on Israeli official Twitter sites. Their air force conducted a
Speaker 4: series of strikes yesterday and over one hundred locations, okay,
Speaker 4: according to them, the biggest air campaign that they have
Speaker 4: conducted since nineteen seventy three, since the Young Capol War.
Speaker 4: And what do they focus on? Weapons production facilities, air
Speaker 4: defense systems, Syrian fighter jets. I don't know about, you know,
Speaker 4: WND doesn't mention that, but clearly that was part of
Speaker 4: their contingency plan to deny all of these weapons to
Speaker 4: you know, prevent them from falling into the wrong hands,
Speaker 4: which is a good thing.
Speaker 3: Interesting side note because I got a text from a
Speaker 3: friend of mine this morning on this is one of
Speaker 3: the the issues that may be resolve. If you recall
Speaker 3: when we went into Iraq, we were on the hunt
Speaker 3: for weapons of mass destruction and didn't find many. Some
Speaker 3: people believe that some of those were transferred to Syria.
Speaker 3: So I don't know. I'm not gonna I don't know.
Speaker 3: I was but a young paramilitary officer at the time
Speaker 3: on that team. But it would be interesting to know,
Speaker 3: because I imagine there will be some kind of records maybe
Speaker 3: if they didn't destroy them, that you know, some of
Speaker 3: these chemical weapons may have came from Iraq. That's that's
Speaker 3: for the analyst and the IC to determine. But it's
Speaker 3: an interesting side note is there's going to be a
Speaker 3: pretty significant intelligence effort now that largely these folks abandoned
Speaker 3: their posts, the intelligence service especially, and they're going to
Speaker 3: try to see not only that which is of interest
Speaker 3: to the US I see as a whole, but everybody
Speaker 3: that helped the regime in the last you know, twenty years,
Speaker 3: certainly last teen years, and how they got around sanctions
Speaker 3: and how they did that. It could all be there.
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of nervous people. I think companies,
Speaker 3: et cetera. And maybe they should be, because I think
Speaker 3: this is going to be this.
Speaker 4: Is going to maybe even politicians, maybe even politicians, that's right,
Speaker 4: It would be that that would certainly be something that
Speaker 4: I hope in negotiating with the Turks to for our
Speaker 4: you know, our intelligence community to get their hands on.
Speaker 4: I mean, let's see that that would be a significant
Speaker 4: find finding the w n D at last. Yeah, years later,
Speaker 4: Hey on on a No, that's not Richie signed that
Speaker 4: we need to be ending. It's just gonna on a
Speaker 4: on a lighten note, you know, I regardless of who
Speaker 4: was doing it, it was great seeing all these dudes
Speaker 4: being freed from from prisons. You know, that was something
Speaker 4: like the big prison in Harms, I forget the name,
Speaker 4: it begins with S, but something like thirteen thousand prisoners
Speaker 4: being freed from there, and these people were having gone through,
Speaker 4: you know, just an imaginable hardship over the last few years.
Speaker 4: There's one guy who was imprisoned by Assad's father, Halfez
Speaker 4: because he beat him in a horse competition, like a
Speaker 4: show champion competition, and there's been in prison since then,
Speaker 4: you know. But these guys being released and just wandering
Speaker 4: down the street, it's just I mean, you can imagine
Speaker 4: how that must have felt. I mean, I got a
Speaker 4: lot of midst of all the chaos, like a lot
Speaker 4: of vicarious pleasure and relief from watching that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I actually got a chance to meet Caesar.
Speaker 3: If you remember the Caesar Act, it's named after him.
Speaker 3: He was the guy who smuggled out hundred thousands of
Speaker 3: photos of what they've did in the prisons that I mean,
Speaker 3: even when he came with the Pentagon, he had to
Speaker 3: have mask on and all that stuff. But his efforts
Speaker 3: led to the Caesar Act, which, of course so and
Speaker 3: it's got to be super emotional. I have a lot
Speaker 3: of Syrian friends, some of the use to or still
Speaker 3: do work with the White Helmets, So they've been texting me,
Speaker 3: you know, reuniting with people that had been in prison
Speaker 3: for ten years, tortured the entire time. It's we shouldn't
Speaker 3: go past that worrying about everything that we should worry about,
Speaker 3: but we should to your point, and he recognize that
Speaker 3: for the Syrian people, this is absolutely a hugely emotional
Speaker 3: experience and one that will never be forgotten in the
Speaker 3: country for sure. In fact that I remember when we
Speaker 3: were going through Iraq, we came down from the north,
Speaker 3: and it was a similar situation where the prisons were
Speaker 3: being let out and we were talking to some older
Speaker 3: man who was going through a translation with his son,
Speaker 3: and he kept whispering like really really softly, and finally
Speaker 3: as he started crying, and you know, we said, why
Speaker 3: is he crying? And he goes, I told my dadd
Speaker 3: he didn't have to whisper anymore. You know. Now it's
Speaker 3: stuck to me going, oh wow, yeah he should. He
Speaker 3: should have a whisper again. Right, he's uh, he's free,
Speaker 3: and it's it's it's something that we should remember, right,
Speaker 3: we get you know, we're analysts. We focus on the
Speaker 3: national security implications and that's what people I think want
Speaker 3: us to do. But it's also they're a very human
Speaker 3: part of this. And right now it is on display
Speaker 3: in Syriah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, very well said, I mean, how do we not
Speaker 2: end it there? That was perfect? Uh, guys, don't forget
Speaker 2: to check out uh mix organizations fog wow and uh,
Speaker 2: oh my god, Lobo, thank.
Speaker 4: You Jesus, sorry about that.
Speaker 2: Uh. Of course Nick is an analyst for ABC and
Speaker 2: ies on. Don't forget that. I'm coming for George Stephanopolis.
Speaker 2: Don't worry about that.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: Andy Milburn his book When the Tempest Gathers, his sub stack,
Speaker 2: his linked in his Blue Sky. All the links that
Speaker 2: you will need are in the description. I've made it
Speaker 2: very easy. Any final thoughts from you, guys, Andy, you
Speaker 2: said it.
Speaker 4: All not from me. Stay tuned.
Speaker 2: This week we're going to be extremely busy. We're going
Speaker 2: to have multiple shows. A South Korean general I forgot
Speaker 2: his name, Andy, what's his name?
Speaker 4: Lieutenant general tune? Yeah, and one a Korean version of
Speaker 4: the Medal of Honor in their eighties, right, and when
Speaker 4: we are nominally at peace with North Korea because it
Speaker 4: never really has been in peace, but when you read
Speaker 4: the story of how it happened is when you hear it,
Speaker 4: it's extraordinary. But also a big YouTuber in Korea. Good
Speaker 4: to see you, retired lieutenant general doing that big following,
Speaker 4: you know, to include among the young with comments about
Speaker 4: a recent term it's being called an auto coup, right,
Speaker 4: auto not as an automatic but being imposed from above
Speaker 4: by President Yun in Korea and what the implication saw
Speaker 4: and also his comments about threat from within within South
Speaker 4: Korea and uh and in the North and from North Korea.
Speaker 4: You know something that has dropped off the radar, perhaps
Speaker 4: with all these all these other events around the wall.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so excited for that. And also on Thursday, we're
Speaker 2: gonna have Charles Lister on to give us blow by
Speaker 2: blow of what's going on in Syria. At that point
Speaker 2: we should have a little bit more information coming in,
Speaker 2: uh maybe what a government would look like there, or
Speaker 2: like the makings of a government. So it's going to
Speaker 2: be a busy week at AiZ on. Don't forget to
Speaker 2: subscribe and like the videos. If you're listening to us
Speaker 2: on podcasts, rate and review at five stars that helps
Speaker 2: as well, and support the show Patreon, dot com, slash
Speaker 2: the teamhouse. Thanks guys, this is good, good stuff.
Speaker 4: Thank you guys.
Speaker 3: Agrest your day