WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.480 --> 00:00:02.560 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 2 00:00:02.600 --> 00:00:05.120 you today about a way that you can help support 3 00:00:05.120 --> 00:00:08.679 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 4 00:00:08.960 --> 00:00:12.400 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 5 00:00:12.480 --> 00:00:15.720 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 6 00:00:15.800 --> 00:00:18.280 you sign up, you get access to all of our 7 00:00:18.320 --> 00:00:21.760 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 8 00:00:21.760 --> 00:00:25.559 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 9 00:00:26.280 --> 00:00:28.719 but this is the biggest and best way that you 10 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:33.520 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 11 00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:36.479 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 12 00:00:36.479 --> 00:00:39.520 out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 13 00:00:40.320 --> 00:00:44.640 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Iizon. I'm dmiitch you. 14 00:00:44.679 --> 00:00:46.840 Of course you have Andy Milburn and Mith mulroy and 15 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:51.079 the big news today is the ASID regime in Syria 16 00:00:51.119 --> 00:00:56.679 has fallen. Mick, what you what's on your radar with this? 17 00:01:00.000 --> 00:01:01.439 But I think the first thing to say is not 18 00:01:01.479 --> 00:01:06.719 only was it unexpected how quickly the ASSAD regime collapsed, 19 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:10.959 but also that it happened quite frankly. Just to be 20 00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:14.480 you know, straightforward with it, I don't know a lot 21 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:17.680 of people, even the people that follow this very closely, 22 00:01:17.719 --> 00:01:19.879 and I know we had Charles On, Charles lister On 23 00:01:21.719 --> 00:01:25.120 just recently who follows this probably as close as anybody 24 00:01:25.120 --> 00:01:27.760 that I know that really predicted this was going to happen. 25 00:01:28.959 --> 00:01:32.480 That said, if you look back and hide sights twenty twenty, right, 26 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:35.439 you can see the issues that could have led to this, 27 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:39.120 which is Russia fully engaged in a war of their 28 00:01:39.120 --> 00:01:45.480 own choice and its significantly degraded their capabilities, especially outside 29 00:01:45.519 --> 00:01:52.840 of the Ukraine theater. Aran Hesbolah obviously getting systemmatically dismantled 30 00:01:52.879 --> 00:01:57.000 by Israel, and Lebanon can't afford just to have all 31 00:01:57.040 --> 00:02:00.599 there are a lot of their forces fighting for Assad 32 00:02:00.640 --> 00:02:04.840 in his country, So that was some of the factors 33 00:02:04.840 --> 00:02:08.840 that led to I think this really quick collapse of 34 00:02:08.879 --> 00:02:13.960 the regime, and strategically it's a big failure for Iran 35 00:02:14.159 --> 00:02:17.800 and Russia. So that's a good thing. And obviously Assad 36 00:02:18.120 --> 00:02:22.120 himself thirteen years of the civil war, responsible for hundreds 37 00:02:22.159 --> 00:02:26.400 of thousands, if not over five hundred thousand civilian deaths, 38 00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:32.159 half of the population being displaced in many millions leaving 39 00:02:32.759 --> 00:02:36.280 the country. So there's no love loss. There shouldn't be 40 00:02:36.360 --> 00:02:39.240 for anybody when it comes to the Assad regime. But 41 00:02:39.319 --> 00:02:43.800 the question of course is who is hts Are they 42 00:02:43.879 --> 00:02:48.560 truly moderated version of what they started, which was affiliate 43 00:02:48.680 --> 00:02:53.199 essentially of all kinda in Syria? Is Jalani this you know, 44 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:56.560 new kind of leader or is he essentially just saying 45 00:02:56.599 --> 00:03:01.439 what he needs to say now, just like the Taliban 46 00:03:01.520 --> 00:03:05.599 did during negotiations for our withdrawal. And even if he is, 47 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:08.240 how is this going to play out? Is this really 48 00:03:08.280 --> 00:03:11.000 going to be a transition to a government selected by 49 00:03:11.039 --> 00:03:16.039 the people? And during that time, you know, what about 50 00:03:16.039 --> 00:03:20.680 the significant weapons that saw it have chemical weapons, all 51 00:03:20.680 --> 00:03:24.439 these things falling into the wrong hands? Does this turn 52 00:03:24.520 --> 00:03:27.000 toward a civil war within a civil war? So there's 53 00:03:27.000 --> 00:03:29.240 a lot of questions I think that are still out 54 00:03:29.240 --> 00:03:32.439 there that we can force talk here, but there it's 55 00:03:32.479 --> 00:03:35.039 something that I think is very concerning not only to 56 00:03:35.759 --> 00:03:39.719 the United States but the region. Right the region is 57 00:03:39.719 --> 00:03:43.039 concerned about a mass exodus of refugees. And of course, 58 00:03:43.080 --> 00:03:46.759 we have nine hundred servicemen and women still active in 59 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:49.919 Syria and the Eastern part and according to the President's 60 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:54.439 statements today, he's essentially doubling down on their need to 61 00:03:54.479 --> 00:03:58.520 be there. So that could change with the incoming administration, 62 00:03:58.599 --> 00:04:01.560 don't know, but that's another factor in this whole, this 63 00:04:01.680 --> 00:04:06.159 whole saga that's played out of the last forty eight hours. 64 00:04:07.240 --> 00:04:11.240 Yeah, when when we were talking to David McCloskey, just 65 00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:15.039 you know, just last week, it seemed like it was 66 00:04:15.159 --> 00:04:18.759 going to be even though you know, Harmer had falled 67 00:04:18.839 --> 00:04:22.560 and they're advancing on harms, I think, I mean, they 68 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:25.839 can sense that somebody us I mean, well, well not 69 00:04:25.879 --> 00:04:28.639 that that that's a very low bar, I know, but David, 70 00:04:29.160 --> 00:04:32.279 at least, i'd say, you have has you know, quite 71 00:04:32.279 --> 00:04:35.240 a quite an interesting take on this. But the perception 72 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:39.680 was that Damascus would probably prove too tough and not 73 00:04:39.879 --> 00:04:43.199 to crack uh and that the you know, the Russians 74 00:04:43.240 --> 00:04:47.000 would would at least rally to defend the capital. But 75 00:04:47.079 --> 00:04:49.639 obviously that didn't happen. I think, you know, to mixed 76 00:04:49.639 --> 00:04:55.279 point follow on, it's interesting when unexpected strategic events happened 77 00:04:55.279 --> 00:05:01.040 so quickly like this to see who who is who 78 00:05:01.120 --> 00:05:05.319 among the major players do have a kind of a 79 00:05:05.319 --> 00:05:11.040 backup plan, and you know, clearly Russia and Iran didn't. 80 00:05:11.360 --> 00:05:14.800 They didn't anticipate this happened. Russia was involved in kind 81 00:05:14.800 --> 00:05:18.639 of a you know, it was focused, has been focused 82 00:05:18.680 --> 00:05:21.839 in the last week or so on evacuating its citizens, 83 00:05:21.839 --> 00:05:24.360 getting its essential personnel out of there, even out of 84 00:05:24.680 --> 00:05:27.839 tartlets at naval port. Doesn't mean it's given up on 85 00:05:27.879 --> 00:05:29.839 these bases. So I would add that as a note 86 00:05:29.839 --> 00:05:33.360 of caution, and that there's negotiations already taking place and 87 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:39.120 cutter between the Turks who are backing HTS and the Russians, 88 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:42.639 so something, something may evolve from that, whereby the Russians 89 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:45.399 still maintained a presence in serious so it's too early 90 00:05:45.439 --> 00:05:50.800 to celebrate. So the you know, the Turks I are 91 00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:56.800 well placed. It may be good news for Europe and 92 00:05:56.839 --> 00:06:00.240 the United States saw no crocodile talis for as odd 93 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:03.319 if there is a measure of stability, and that's a 94 00:06:03.360 --> 00:06:09.680 big if. And the you know, from the US perspective, 95 00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:13.360 aside from hitting Islamic state targets as a kind of 96 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:17.560 a warning, preemptive warning, it's not clear that we had 97 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:21.680 a contingency plan or have a contingency plan on the 98 00:06:21.720 --> 00:06:25.040 shelf to handle this year. Israelis obviously did I mean 99 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:28.639 they're conducting a series of strikes right now to prevent 100 00:06:29.160 --> 00:06:32.160 a major weapons systems from falling into the wrong hands. 101 00:06:32.519 --> 00:06:36.519 They moved almost instantly into the area beyond the go 102 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:40.199 On Heights as a buffer zone. So clearly, you know, 103 00:06:40.279 --> 00:06:42.480 that wasn't something they threw together on the fly. That 104 00:06:42.560 --> 00:06:47.959 is something they had anticipated and they're reacting too. But 105 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:53.879 you know, a as a note of caution, typically when 106 00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:58.240 brutal dictatorships and good things don't happen, at least not immediately. 107 00:06:58.279 --> 00:07:02.800 Think about Yugoslavia and perhaps not a brutal dictator, definitely 108 00:07:02.800 --> 00:07:07.279 a dictator. Think about Libya after Gaddafi, you know, still 109 00:07:07.759 --> 00:07:13.519 a mess, and of course Saddan after the fall of Saddam. 110 00:07:13.720 --> 00:07:20.079 So history does not suggest that this, regardless of whether 111 00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:24.160 Jelani is is sincere about what he's saying about having 112 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:29.800 an kind of an inclusive supporting an inclusive administration, and 113 00:07:29.839 --> 00:07:32.279 he's even saying HDS doesn't have to be the leader 114 00:07:32.279 --> 00:07:35.120 in this administration, even if he is sincere in that 115 00:07:35.839 --> 00:07:41.560 recent historical examples suggest that we're in for a period 116 00:07:41.560 --> 00:07:47.399 of extreme turbulence Sinceyria. 117 00:07:47.800 --> 00:07:49.240 Yeah, agreed for sure. 118 00:07:50.759 --> 00:07:53.319 Well one word thing real quick on Julyana, I was 119 00:07:53.319 --> 00:07:56.120 interested to see that he was rolled up by the 120 00:07:56.160 --> 00:08:00.120 Americans in Mosall in two thousand and five, which happens 121 00:08:00.160 --> 00:08:03.399 to be. You know, it's funny how things come together. Carillo, 122 00:08:03.600 --> 00:08:06.920 who now hit Syntcom, was a battalion commander in Mostall 123 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:09.360 two thousand and five, which I know because I was 124 00:08:09.399 --> 00:08:13.519 attached to his battalion as an advisor, and according to 125 00:08:14.399 --> 00:08:17.439 the Washington Post, spent five years in Jilani we're talking 126 00:08:17.439 --> 00:08:23.680 about in US detention. He was a friend or at 127 00:08:23.759 --> 00:08:31.079 least they who a colleague of Bagdaddy, who headed the 128 00:08:31.120 --> 00:08:35.279 Islamic State before they you know, they broke with the 129 00:08:35.320 --> 00:08:39.320 Islamic State back in when it was twenty fourteen, and 130 00:08:39.360 --> 00:08:42.799 as Mick said, the Our News Refront, which Jilani headed 131 00:08:43.159 --> 00:08:48.480 was definitely and openly and ol Cada affiliate. Since then, 132 00:08:48.720 --> 00:08:51.720 you know, Jolani's gone after both ISIS and al Qaeda, 133 00:08:52.480 --> 00:08:55.360 but that means little because even if he has reformed, 134 00:08:56.200 --> 00:08:59.080 there are other factors at play. And the guys who 135 00:08:59.279 --> 00:09:01.519 entered the Prime minute this office, who made it into 136 00:09:01.600 --> 00:09:05.039 Damascus kind of in this circle government buildings fus were 137 00:09:05.080 --> 00:09:10.039 not HDS dudes, they were they were other sunny extremist rebels. 138 00:09:10.039 --> 00:09:14.639 So you know, it would be a mistake to say 139 00:09:14.639 --> 00:09:17.399 that Jilani that that the future of Syria is even 140 00:09:17.440 --> 00:09:18.600 in Jilanne's hands. 141 00:09:20.720 --> 00:09:24.120 That's true, and we might see this breakdown. Uh, you know, 142 00:09:24.159 --> 00:09:26.600 there are coalitions, so it's not in their interests to 143 00:09:26.639 --> 00:09:29.480 be a coalition, right, Like I said, their main objective 144 00:09:29.480 --> 00:09:33.840 has been accomplished, and now it's we'll find out, you know, 145 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:37.799 whether some would like to see it a wholesale Islamic 146 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:42.919 state under the guys of ISIS, or whether there's any 147 00:09:42.960 --> 00:09:47.960 inclination really to do what Jilani is telling Western media right, 148 00:09:48.840 --> 00:09:51.600 so and and and on the it seems like every 149 00:09:51.639 --> 00:09:54.480 one of these guys got indoctrinated or got their PhD 150 00:09:54.759 --> 00:09:57.919 from being incarcerated by the United States in some form 151 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:00.000 or fashion. Those are those are the ones that usually 152 00:10:00.039 --> 00:10:03.240 go on to lead the organization of which they started in, right, 153 00:10:03.759 --> 00:10:06.240 So that's something we might want to review in the future. 154 00:10:07.399 --> 00:10:10.200 Yeah, I mean it's fair exactly. That's a really good 155 00:10:10.200 --> 00:10:14.840 point because everyone is saying, wow, Jilani is like he's 156 00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:20.240 like a very professional military leader. When you look at HTS, 157 00:10:20.279 --> 00:10:24.240 they have drone units, they've got tank units, they're tank infant. 158 00:10:24.399 --> 00:10:27.679 You know, they've even if you watch some of the 159 00:10:27.759 --> 00:10:30.679 videos they seem to have figured out tank infantry integration, 160 00:10:30.799 --> 00:10:33.200 a lot of things that that in the not all 161 00:10:33.240 --> 00:10:35.320 Western militaries are done. And you're thinking, where the hell 162 00:10:35.360 --> 00:10:38.799 did he learn this? It wouldn't be surprising if he 163 00:10:38.919 --> 00:10:43.840 spent some time incarceration learning much of this doctrine, our 164 00:10:43.879 --> 00:10:47.279 own doctrine. I mean, after all, that's what Sinma did 165 00:10:47.279 --> 00:10:48.320 with the Israelis. 166 00:10:49.480 --> 00:10:52.879 That's exactly right, right, they learned their enemy. 167 00:10:54.840 --> 00:10:58.000 So what's happened to a sad mik? I mean, is it? 168 00:10:58.080 --> 00:11:02.200 I know he appears of it appeared in Moscow, but 169 00:11:02.559 --> 00:11:07.120 you think that's that's for real? Jason commented it might 170 00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:10.559 be his body doubles, and that was there was There 171 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:13.399 were comments and it looked like credible comments on in 172 00:11:13.480 --> 00:11:18.320 Twitterland suggesting that his plane had been shot down last night. 173 00:11:19.480 --> 00:11:22.159 Yes, and a lot of media organizations were falling that 174 00:11:22.159 --> 00:11:25.360 that thought it was credible. It was an IL seventy 175 00:11:25.399 --> 00:11:29.320 six that apparently was shot down. Maybe that was the case, 176 00:11:29.320 --> 00:11:34.320 and maybe he just wasn't on it. Russia, their official spokesperson, 177 00:11:34.399 --> 00:11:39.159 is saying that he has received asylum and his family 178 00:11:39.240 --> 00:11:43.120 in Moscow. So could it be a body double? I 179 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:45.399 don't know how long they would or why they wouldn't 180 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:49.320 necessarily find that helpful to do rather than just acknowledge 181 00:11:49.320 --> 00:11:52.039 his death. But he'll have to make some kind of 182 00:11:52.159 --> 00:11:55.960 appearance soon. But it's clear he's not going back. So 183 00:11:56.039 --> 00:11:58.159 even if he made it out, he is, you know, 184 00:11:58.360 --> 00:11:59.600 going to be living in Moscow. 185 00:12:00.799 --> 00:12:04.879 Yeah. Twitter was on fire yesterday about the plane crash 186 00:12:05.080 --> 00:12:05.600 and stuff. 187 00:12:08.399 --> 00:12:08.600 Yeah. 188 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:11.840 I think Jason was joking honestly about the body double thing. 189 00:12:12.039 --> 00:12:13.840 Uh? 190 00:12:13.960 --> 00:12:16.399 I mean is does he form a government in exile 191 00:12:16.440 --> 00:12:18.320 and stuff like that and play, you know, singing that 192 00:12:18.399 --> 00:12:20.399 tune of like you know, I'm gonna become I'm gonna 193 00:12:20.440 --> 00:12:22.360 come back and all that or what? 194 00:12:22.360 --> 00:12:25.720 What do you think? It's difficult to mention because his 195 00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:30.360 even as loyalist, left the Seeking ship like rats, you. 196 00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:32.960 Know what I mean, even it seems like there was 197 00:12:33.000 --> 00:12:34.559 a negotiation. 198 00:12:34.039 --> 00:12:39.039 Or I never heard of you. Yeah, yeah, I mean, 199 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:42.159 look how fast they just just melted away? Right, Yeah, 200 00:12:42.200 --> 00:12:44.559 I don't see. I mean, he has no real popular support. 201 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:47.039 He was a strong man who used his brutal tactics 202 00:12:47.080 --> 00:12:49.480 to get people to ben to his will, and that 203 00:12:49.519 --> 00:12:51.759 didn't work. It had to be Russia, right, He had 204 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:54.440 to have support to even get to where he was. 205 00:12:54.840 --> 00:12:58.000 I don't think there's any chance that he would even 206 00:12:59.120 --> 00:13:01.559 entertain the idea. Being a government in exile, they would 207 00:13:01.559 --> 00:13:02.720 have any opportunity to. 208 00:13:02.639 --> 00:13:07.080 Come back, I suppose. I mean, it's as we said, 209 00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:11.200 it's early days, and I'm not I'm not looking for 210 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:15.639 false glimmers of hope. But it is remarkable actually that 211 00:13:16.240 --> 00:13:20.200 the transition has been as orderly as it has. I mean, 212 00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:24.879 not transition, I mean if you look, the Ahts supposed 213 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.840 a curfew that doesn't appear to be widespread looting except 214 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:32.279 in you know, if you exclude a sad personal personal 215 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:37.120 house and a few other places. There's been some clashes 216 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:42.759 between I believe, between the Turks or turk or rather 217 00:13:42.840 --> 00:13:46.879 Turkish backed rebels and the Kurds in the in the 218 00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:50.639 northeast of the country, and of course some clashes between 219 00:13:51.519 --> 00:13:56.360 the Israelis and the rebels in the vicinity of Golden Heights. 220 00:13:56.399 --> 00:14:01.200 But aside from that, so far things seem to be 221 00:14:01.440 --> 00:14:06.679 relatively quiet. The rebels have. The other thing is, rather 222 00:14:06.720 --> 00:14:10.720 than launch into kind of a depthification process, the rebels 223 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:15.960 uh or Jili has appealed personally to police and civilian authorities, 224 00:14:16.080 --> 00:14:18.320 you know, as saw it loyalists remain in that post 225 00:14:19.159 --> 00:14:22.240 pending pending the announcement of He says it's a unity government. 226 00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:25.200 So again, I don't want to be pollyannerish, but at 227 00:14:25.279 --> 00:14:28.399 least these are good scigns. It's more than we did 228 00:14:28.399 --> 00:14:29.440 when we invaded Iraq. 229 00:14:30.519 --> 00:14:34.320 Yeah right, we're responsible for the deepst sptification. But the 230 00:14:34.399 --> 00:14:38.000 prime minister did stay Jilali not to be confused with 231 00:14:38.360 --> 00:14:41.600 h HDS leader, but the actual Prime Minister of Syria 232 00:14:41.679 --> 00:14:47.120 did stay barely, and he's made statements that all the 233 00:14:47.240 --> 00:14:52.559 opposition forces have agreed to this transition. So I mean, 234 00:14:52.600 --> 00:14:54.759 we should want it to be the case, right, so 235 00:14:55.360 --> 00:14:59.240 we obviously should root against uh that happening. So it's 236 00:14:59.279 --> 00:15:03.679 a it's a truck maybe, but verify kind of scenario, 237 00:15:03.759 --> 00:15:06.240 like let's see what they do rather than what they say. 238 00:15:06.480 --> 00:15:09.759 But to your point, Andy, they are saying right, even 239 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:11.720 even the opposition for USUS. 240 00:15:11.720 --> 00:15:16.360 So that's so far, so good. But you know, just 241 00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:19.279 kind of taking a step back. I mean, there are 242 00:15:19.840 --> 00:15:21.960 there are really and I know there are there are 243 00:15:21.960 --> 00:15:27.159 more factions. I'm simplifying this absurdly. Syria. You know, Syria 244 00:15:27.279 --> 00:15:31.480 analysts will will no doubt say, but I mean there 245 00:15:31.480 --> 00:15:35.240 are the four main factions right there, the Turkish Bats, 246 00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:39.039 Sunni rebels, of which AS is the strongest but not 247 00:15:39.120 --> 00:15:42.120 the only group. And and previously they're up in the 248 00:15:42.159 --> 00:15:45.559 northwest they governed an area around it. That there's the 249 00:15:45.679 --> 00:15:48.840 Kurds you know, who essentially the SDF, but also the 250 00:15:48.960 --> 00:15:52.480 YPG who are in the in the north and east. 251 00:15:53.720 --> 00:15:56.679 And then there's and I'm not sure this is still 252 00:15:56.720 --> 00:15:59.320 the case how strong these guys are, but there was 253 00:15:59.360 --> 00:16:05.120 as a kind of Jordanian slash US backed rebel group 254 00:16:05.159 --> 00:16:08.799 in the south. And then you have the Alla White 255 00:16:08.799 --> 00:16:11.840 loyalists who are along the along the coast, and each 256 00:16:11.879 --> 00:16:14.720 one of those groups has its own army, right, so 257 00:16:15.399 --> 00:16:18.600 I mean, the the the potential for civil war to 258 00:16:18.679 --> 00:16:23.559 continue is still there. But perhaps you know one incentive 259 00:16:23.600 --> 00:16:28.080 for that not happening, aside from you know, Turkish Katari 260 00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:36.279 diplomacy with well based basically Turkish Katari diplomacy, one is 261 00:16:36.320 --> 00:16:40.960 the fact that the Turksen and Kutter have a have 262 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:45.480 a plan for a gas gas pipeline to run from 263 00:16:45.679 --> 00:16:49.840 Cutter to Bulgaria across Syria, which would be good news 264 00:16:50.159 --> 00:16:55.960 for everyone in Europe because it would reduce dependency on 265 00:16:55.960 --> 00:16:58.600 on Russian gas and of course good news for the 266 00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:01.919 US interests if that and of course Cutter and Turkey, 267 00:17:02.759 --> 00:17:06.759 so you know, so that that's important because both those 268 00:17:06.799 --> 00:17:10.960 countries have funded HDS and the most powerful rebel groups 269 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:14.039 and now they stand to benefit from having that cast 270 00:17:14.039 --> 00:17:19.680 oil cas platform. And then there is the incentive reconstruction itself. 271 00:17:19.880 --> 00:17:23.839 I mean, Syria has been devastated that you know, the 272 00:17:23.920 --> 00:17:27.319 cost of reconstruction is estimated around two hundred billion dollars 273 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:31.119 money coming in and all those groups could potentially benefit 274 00:17:31.200 --> 00:17:36.720 from that. So if if presented in the right way, 275 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:40.480 and then I hate to, I hate to turn things 276 00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:43.559 over to Otawan and the Katori's, but certainly I don't. 277 00:17:43.799 --> 00:17:46.640 I'm not sure how much of an active stance U 278 00:17:46.759 --> 00:17:49.559 United States is going to take in this. Then then 279 00:17:49.599 --> 00:17:54.039 at least there is a strong incentive to maintain maintain order. 280 00:17:55.720 --> 00:18:00.039 And that's important, right, so you know, whether Turkey and 281 00:18:00.119 --> 00:18:03.079 Katar benefit, as long as it benefits the Syrian people. 282 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:08.000 And then the case is the oil pipeline Europe right 283 00:18:08.160 --> 00:18:11.319 encountering Russia. I mean, that is obviously something and it 284 00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:14.400 would I would assume it would bring some kind of 285 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:17.559 resources to the Syrian people right that if they're going 286 00:18:17.640 --> 00:18:19.839 to have this pipeline going through their country, that they 287 00:18:19.839 --> 00:18:22.880 would get some of the benefits. And obviously the reconstruction 288 00:18:23.240 --> 00:18:26.680 is to benefit them. So you know, if countries are 289 00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:31.240 willing to go into a conflict area and help do 290 00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:36.680 the re construction, then good ale. To be frank, it's 291 00:18:37.400 --> 00:18:39.839 it's not for the countries that sit on the sideline 292 00:18:40.160 --> 00:18:44.119 and criticize, So that I think is super important. The 293 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:46.880 other part that you brought up, Andy that has a 294 00:18:46.920 --> 00:18:49.359 lot of people questioning is just what is Syria? Right? 295 00:18:49.440 --> 00:18:53.119 So you have large segments of you mentioned all the 296 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:55.759 different groups, the Alloyhites on the coast, the Sunni Arabs 297 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:59.799 you know in the north west, the Kourgs taking a 298 00:18:59.839 --> 00:19:03.240 lot arch portion of the country in the east, and 299 00:19:03.319 --> 00:19:06.359 then the Arab group, which I do believe took part 300 00:19:06.359 --> 00:19:11.200 in actual going into Damascus on the Jordan border. I mean, 301 00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:14.880 if they don't come up with a comprehensive way to 302 00:19:14.920 --> 00:19:17.559 incorporate all the groups of Syria, they don't have a Syria. 303 00:19:17.680 --> 00:19:19.759 I guess it's another way to put it. They're just 304 00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:22.759 gonna they all have an army, as you said, and 305 00:19:22.799 --> 00:19:26.160 they all have territory. So and unless other sides are 306 00:19:26.160 --> 00:19:28.519 willing to fight and have the ability to win, which 307 00:19:28.519 --> 00:19:31.920 they don't, we're essentially going to see a completely partitioned 308 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:36.200 Syria that isn't actually a functioning country. So if the group, 309 00:19:36.799 --> 00:19:39.920 the groups that are helping in the transition don't go 310 00:19:40.079 --> 00:19:43.559 toward incorporating all other groups, then they're not going to 311 00:19:43.640 --> 00:19:47.079 run Assyria as a country. They're going to run whatever 312 00:19:47.480 --> 00:19:49.960 section of the country that they already are running. 313 00:19:50.079 --> 00:19:55.000 I guess, yeah, that's I mean, that's that's a great 314 00:19:55.000 --> 00:19:59.680 point that Took's already very nervous about and have been 315 00:19:59.720 --> 00:20:03.319 about the course about the SDF and the SDF against 316 00:20:03.319 --> 00:20:06.519 Syria Democratic forces at the Kurdish Bank and the YEPG 317 00:20:07.240 --> 00:20:11.000 and the area of Syria that they control right now 318 00:20:11.119 --> 00:20:14.160 is actually very important part of Syria. I mean, it 319 00:20:14.559 --> 00:20:18.640 has the most of the oil fields, I believe, and 320 00:20:18.680 --> 00:20:21.759 it's I know, the term bread basket is overused and 321 00:20:21.799 --> 00:20:24.480 it's difficult to think of the bread basket in Syria, 322 00:20:24.519 --> 00:20:27.519 but it is Syrious bread basket. It's the most terrible 323 00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:30.559 land up there in the northeast in the country that 324 00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:36.160 is largely desert, and so that's certainly you know, the 325 00:20:37.079 --> 00:20:41.279 probably strong Turkish and certainly Turkish proxy incentives to take 326 00:20:41.359 --> 00:20:44.279 some of that land back, and that could be behind 327 00:20:44.319 --> 00:20:47.200 some of the fighting that's taking place now in Manbish 328 00:20:47.319 --> 00:20:53.160 and Raka on that scene between the Kurds and Arab 329 00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:59.519 Turkish back forces. But what do you think about the Russians? 330 00:20:59.599 --> 00:21:03.720 I mean, the first all, do you think they were 331 00:21:03.759 --> 00:21:07.720 taken as by surprise as everyone else. Do you think 332 00:21:07.720 --> 00:21:10.920 this was a conscious decision to kind of. 333 00:21:12.440 --> 00:21:15.240 I think they were surprised, I do. I think we 334 00:21:15.279 --> 00:21:19.279 would have seen some effort to surge forces there, to 335 00:21:19.359 --> 00:21:22.039 try to caution it early on, rather than allow it 336 00:21:22.039 --> 00:21:24.799 to get momentum. I think they were caught flat footed, 337 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:27.119 just like the rest of us. And by the time 338 00:21:27.200 --> 00:21:30.400 they made the decision, you know, the ball was rolling 339 00:21:31.039 --> 00:21:35.079 and they realized that they would have to contribute a 340 00:21:35.119 --> 00:21:38.960 lot to a fight that would largely probably require some 341 00:21:39.039 --> 00:21:42.200 ground forces since Hesblo removed a lot of theirs, and 342 00:21:42.240 --> 00:21:43.960 they weren't willing to do it, nor did they have it. 343 00:21:44.680 --> 00:21:47.240 And then when they started moving their assets out of 344 00:21:47.480 --> 00:21:51.400 you know, Tartuse and Latakia, I think that was an 345 00:21:51.440 --> 00:21:54.559 indicator to everybody that they weren't going to fully support 346 00:21:54.599 --> 00:21:57.400 the regime and that's when you know, all of his 347 00:21:57.640 --> 00:22:01.559 regime forces can see that too, and then it just 348 00:22:01.640 --> 00:22:05.519 it starts building on itself. They start abandoning their positions 349 00:22:05.559 --> 00:22:07.920 and were drawing and just disappearing, and then it just 350 00:22:07.960 --> 00:22:12.000 becomes FATA complete. And that's what happened. So I think 351 00:22:12.079 --> 00:22:17.319 Russia realizes that it lost quite a bit in this, 352 00:22:18.000 --> 00:22:21.160 but they also realized that they didn't have the ability 353 00:22:21.799 --> 00:22:25.759 once it was really Roland to do anything about it. 354 00:22:25.799 --> 00:22:28.000 So kind of the man at the hour, I mean, 355 00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:30.200 it seems to me the guy who emerges from this 356 00:22:30.400 --> 00:22:34.640 as far as foreign leaders, in the best position is Duwan. 357 00:22:35.920 --> 00:22:39.119 And mean, I know it's impossible to guess what he's 358 00:22:39.160 --> 00:22:40.720 going to do, but the Russians are going to be 359 00:22:40.759 --> 00:22:45.319 asking him for some kind of concessions to be allowed 360 00:22:45.359 --> 00:22:51.200 back in, I assume. And yet Dawan Erdawan hits a 361 00:22:51.279 --> 00:22:55.200 country that is part of NATO, And it would seem 362 00:22:55.240 --> 00:22:57.559 to me, I hope that the United States is leaning 363 00:22:57.559 --> 00:22:59.720 on him the other way to say no, I mean, 364 00:22:59.759 --> 00:23:02.640 what are your thoughts on that? Which way do you 365 00:23:03.039 --> 00:23:05.079 That's an impossible question. To which way do you think 366 00:23:05.079 --> 00:23:05.799 he's gonna lean? 367 00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:09.960 It is a difficult question. But the question that isn't 368 00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:12.799 difficult is that US should be leaning on right, we 369 00:23:12.880 --> 00:23:16.359 should be. They are part of NADO, they are a 370 00:23:16.400 --> 00:23:20.799 long time key strategic ally of the United States. We 371 00:23:20.920 --> 00:23:25.799 have an opportunity to hand Russia significant defeat, strategic defeat 372 00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:27.519 UH and we expect them. 373 00:23:27.480 --> 00:23:29.599 At no cost, no cost to us. 374 00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:32.400 No cost, no cost to us. So this is not 375 00:23:34.480 --> 00:23:37.279 exactly I think this is now. Of course he's going 376 00:23:37.359 --> 00:23:39.480 to ask something for us, right, So that's the way 377 00:23:39.519 --> 00:23:43.599 the world works. But I you know, and we've you know, 378 00:23:43.599 --> 00:23:45.440 when I was in Pentagon, we had these discussions all 379 00:23:45.480 --> 00:23:49.079 the time about the YPG, the Kurds, b KK, et cetera. 380 00:23:49.680 --> 00:23:52.039 My take, and I don't know if it holds an 381 00:23:52.039 --> 00:23:55.000 each way with President hurt One is if you're concerned 382 00:23:55.039 --> 00:24:00.079 about the Kurds, then US being with that should make 383 00:24:00.119 --> 00:24:02.599 you feel better. Right, They're not going to attack our 384 00:24:03.079 --> 00:24:06.960 strategic treaty to ally the presence of the United States. 385 00:24:07.359 --> 00:24:11.279 I don't think the SDF would do that anyway. But 386 00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:14.640 you know, without getting into the you know, the whole discussion, 387 00:24:15.039 --> 00:24:17.440 I always thought the best argument we had, but certainly 388 00:24:17.599 --> 00:24:22.480 was it did holdsway with many of our Turkish allies 389 00:24:22.799 --> 00:24:26.319 was that the United States being with the Kurds is 390 00:24:26.480 --> 00:24:30.559 a positive for Turkey. Right, So if that's going to 391 00:24:30.599 --> 00:24:32.680 be the quid pro quo, I hope that we don't 392 00:24:32.720 --> 00:24:34.880 go down that route. We need to stay. We need 393 00:24:34.920 --> 00:24:38.759 to ensure that our partners are Since your said, it's 394 00:24:38.759 --> 00:24:43.200 a very minor contribution that has had a very significant outcome, 395 00:24:43.640 --> 00:24:46.359 not just in terms of defeating ISIS and ensuring the 396 00:24:46.400 --> 00:24:50.519 enduring defeat, but strategically against Iran and Russia. And that 397 00:24:50.839 --> 00:24:53.400 the proof is right in front of us today. So 398 00:24:54.559 --> 00:24:56.400 hopefully that he can see that as well. 399 00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:03.160 What you mentioned concessions, What other concessions do you do 400 00:25:03.200 --> 00:25:04.599 you think he may ask for it? Did we have 401 00:25:04.599 --> 00:25:07.559