Speaker 1: As the Fox thirty one chief meteorologist. We just call
Speaker 1: him Dave. Dave Frasier. It's a dark and gloomy day
Speaker 1: here in the Denver metro. When will the horrible weather break?
Speaker 2: Let's let it go for a little while longer.
Speaker 3: I'm actually enjoying this and it has been beneficial, there's
Speaker 3: no question about that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're going to continue.
Speaker 3: With the showers.
Speaker 2: They'll probably take until later this evening to finally dry up.
Speaker 3: There's a few of them out there on radar still,
Speaker 3: especially at just south of downtown.
Speaker 2: Foothills are still seeing wet weather.
Speaker 3: Northern Front Range has some showers up near Fort Collins,
Speaker 3: and we're seeing a few on the south side down
Speaker 3: towards Castle Rock.
Speaker 2: But I think it's been it's been exactly what we needed, Maddie.
Speaker 2: I I nobody knows that and was ready for it.
Speaker 1: Well. I told people earlier that when you come into
Speaker 1: Colorado the first time, they make you sign a document
Speaker 1: that says if you complain about the rain, you have
Speaker 1: to end it by saying, but we need the moisture.
Speaker 1: So that's where we are. But we need the moisture,
Speaker 1: so we're getting a lot of snow in the high country.
Speaker 1: How much of an impact will this have because our
Speaker 1: right now, our average snowpack levels are not great.
Speaker 3: They aren't, but you know, we've been talking about that.
Speaker 3: So you basically load the mountains through about April seventh,
Speaker 3: and then after April seventh you start the melting process.
Speaker 3: So any additional snow beyond April seventh is helpful. What
Speaker 3: we're seeing is snowpack numbers that are below where we
Speaker 3: should be for the melting curve, being we've melted it
Speaker 3: off pretty quickly. And I think the reason we've melted
Speaker 3: it off sooner than maybe we should have is because
Speaker 3: March and April were so dry, and we did have
Speaker 3: periods of warm stretches.
Speaker 2: We weren't you know, we weren't.
Speaker 3: Breaking records left and right for high temperatures, but we
Speaker 3: did have above normal temperatures with sunny days and that
Speaker 3: went into getting the melting process starting sooner. And so
Speaker 3: your bell curve, if you will, for where we should
Speaker 3: be in the melting process is definitely lower than where
Speaker 3: we should because we've melted owner.
Speaker 2: So this moisture certainly will help a little bit.
Speaker 3: Does it push the.
Speaker 2: Snow melt pack back up one hundred percent.
Speaker 3: Probably not, but consider it a cherry on top if
Speaker 3: you will. It's a bonus and it's been melting. Fortunately,
Speaker 3: there have not been a lot of travel problems, even
Speaker 3: though advisories were issued in the mountains. Most of the
Speaker 3: issues were leigh up high past nine thousand feet. We
Speaker 3: were in the mountains last night with our pimploy weather
Speaker 3: bees and the roads were just basically wet. So it
Speaker 3: was kind of a win win, right, You're getting the moisture.
Speaker 2: Getting the snow.
Speaker 3: You know, there's still skiing.
Speaker 2: Available in the mountains.
Speaker 3: This will you know, go to that people running up,
Speaker 3: you know, maybe late this week to do a couple
Speaker 3: more turns. But I think this storm has been exactly
Speaker 3: what we needed.
Speaker 1: Well, let me ask you about snow melt in general,
Speaker 1: because I still don't quite understand what conditions exist to
Speaker 1: create the flash flood scenes that we've seen, you know,
Speaker 1: in the last decade on occasion, not very often. So
Speaker 1: if we've already had some melt, is that for river
Speaker 1: conditions for rafting and things like that, or are we
Speaker 1: taking too soon?
Speaker 3: Do you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: I'm kind of asking what is the perfect melt cycle?
Speaker 1: What does that look like? Compared to where we are now.
Speaker 3: I mean, the worst case scenario for rivers and streams
Speaker 3: and the mountains to come up would be a heavy
Speaker 3: kind of warm rain on top of the snow. So
Speaker 3: you've got the heavy water equivalent of the rain and
Speaker 3: you're melting the snow at the same time, and that
Speaker 3: would increase stream flow. Generally, if we get a really
Speaker 3: big spike, you can get a lot of melting and
Speaker 3: streams and rivers will come up very quickly. So it's
Speaker 3: there's still though, even though we're below where we should
Speaker 3: be for the path. I think even you know, just
Speaker 3: a layman can look at the mountains and know there's
Speaker 3: still a lot of snow up there in the right,
Speaker 3: so we can melt it away.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, you don't want to put the
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 3: You don't want to take a magnifying glass in the
Speaker 3: sun and point it at the Colorado Mountains and melt
Speaker 3: everything off at once. That would be that would be
Speaker 3: horrible and you would have problems and stuff. And obviously
Speaker 3: the bigger concerns are the streams and the creeks and
Speaker 3: the rivers that run through you know, narrow narrow corridors,
Speaker 3: and you know, where the water can't really fan out.
Speaker 3: It has to go up because of the you know,
Speaker 3: the steep terrain around it, So.
Speaker 2: You know those I think the worst.
Speaker 3: Case scenario would be a heavy rain event on top
Speaker 3: of melting snow.
Speaker 1: Okay, I got a question from a texture or are
Speaker 1: they texted the Commons Burial of checks line at five
Speaker 1: sixty six nine? Oh hey, Mandy, I live on top
Speaker 1: of Monument Hill, which I always consider to be the
Speaker 1: Palmer Divide. What does Dave consider to be the Palmer Divide?
Speaker 2: The Palmer Divide is? I consider it Monument Hill as well.
Speaker 2: They actually call it the Black Forest Divide.
Speaker 3: Some people do down there, so if you know where
Speaker 3: black Forest is, they kind of call it basically Monument
Speaker 3: Hill is the peak.
Speaker 2: It's marked right on the highway.
Speaker 3: The elevation, I believe it's seventy three fifty three and
Speaker 3: it's highest point there.
Speaker 2: So for me, when I think.
Speaker 3: Of the Palmer.
Speaker 2: Divide, there is a rise in elevation.
Speaker 3: If you look at a three dimensional map of Colorado,
Speaker 3: you'll see this little terrain feature that we call the
Speaker 3: Palmer Divide that comes east west from the foothills and.
Speaker 2: Kind of rises up.
Speaker 3: So the spine of it would be Monument Hill, and
Speaker 3: then it stands all the way out to the Lineman
Speaker 3: on the eastern plains. And so you have a rise
Speaker 3: in elevation that starts as you depart Denver, certainly as
Speaker 3: you start to go over Surrey Ridge, so you're passing
Speaker 3: Lincoln Avenue, you're climbing up to the Castle Pines Parkway exit.
Speaker 3: You dip a little bit into Castle Rock, but even
Speaker 3: there you're up in elevation. And then as you turn
Speaker 3: the corner and head towards the larksbur and Greenland, you
Speaker 3: start to make that next line as you pass County
Speaker 3: Line Road and go from Douglas County and continue.
Speaker 2: South, and then you hit the big up.
Speaker 3: All of that is arise and it goes off to
Speaker 3: the east and it kind of stands away. So instead
Speaker 3: of being a north south oriented foothills Hogback mountains, you've
Speaker 3: got this east west feature that is also a rides
Speaker 3: and elevation kind of like a mini mountain, if you will,
Speaker 3: and the top of that is Monument Hill. There we go.
Speaker 1: That is an excellent answer to that question, very thorough.
Speaker 1: I have another question when we're like we are right now,
Speaker 1: and you could I mean ifeasibly, there are definitely. We
Speaker 1: just got a text earlier from someone in Woodland Park
Speaker 1: who said it's snowing like the dickens down there. When
Speaker 1: you're in that range where you could easily switch from
Speaker 1: snow to rain. This is, as I'm about to ask
Speaker 1: this question, I realize how stupid it is. You're still
Speaker 1: talking about the same amount of moisture though, right if
Speaker 1: it's snow, if it's rain, it's the same water. It's
Speaker 1: just temperature that has changed things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so let me I'll just answer this business.
Speaker 3: It literally can be a few feet different. You can
Speaker 3: literally drive along a rise in elevation and watch the
Speaker 3: snow line come in your direction where it's grass, and
Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, a couple of feet away
Speaker 3: at snow, and then as it goes up in elevation,
Speaker 3: the snow is there. We call it a QPS, a
Speaker 3: quantitative precipitation. Forecat, we're dealing with liquid all the time.
Speaker 3: The question becomes when you're factoring your snow. As you
Speaker 3: take that liquid, you've heard this before, and then you
Speaker 3: have to extrapolate it out to if a tenth of
Speaker 3: an inch was to become snow, how much snow could
Speaker 3: it become. And generally you do a ten to one ratio.
Speaker 3: If it's cold, it could be a twenty to one ratio.
Speaker 3: So the liquid amount is what we're always dealing with
Speaker 3: where it's the toughest part in any of a forecast.
Speaker 2: Right, QPF forecast the liquid amount. Here's the difference.
Speaker 3: If you miss the forecast by let's say a tenth
Speaker 3: of an inch on a rainy day, you're not going
Speaker 3: to know it unless you go out and shut your
Speaker 3: rain gage because it's just going to run down the street.
Speaker 2: But if you miss that.
Speaker 3: Tenth of an inch forecast, and that can be another
Speaker 3: inch or ten inches of snow.
Speaker 2: It's a big because you go outside and.
Speaker 3: You're expecting four inches and you're shoveling a foot. So
Speaker 3: we're dealing with the same tough forecast. It's just a
Speaker 3: matter of is it running down and soaking in or
Speaker 3: is it stacking up?
Speaker 2: And I got to shovel. It doesn't matter rain or snow.
Speaker 2: It's a QPF liquid forecast.
Speaker 1: As I saw Chad, now we're leaving yesterday and I
Speaker 1: said it's a gloomy day chat and he said, better
Speaker 1: this than snow. And he was absolutely right. Fox News,
Speaker 1: You've now Fox News, Fox thirty one chief meteorologist Dave
Speaker 1: Frasier joys always. We'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 2: Anthwley, I'm off next week, but I'll talk to New
Speaker 2: week after.
Speaker 1: I hope you have a lovely vacation.
Speaker 3: It's my vacation.
Speaker 2: I got to go get a kid out of college
Speaker 2: who's graduating. It's a big yay. Hey, let's get her done.
Speaker 3: Exact about it.
Speaker 1: You almost got that one off the payroll that has
Speaker 1: caused for celebration no matter how you look at it.
Speaker 1: All Right, Dave, have a great time. We'll talk to
Speaker 1: you in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: Alight.
Speaker 1: All right, That my friends is Dave Fraser will be
Speaker 1: right back.