WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.360 --> 00:00:04.040
<v Speaker 1>As the Fox thirty one chief meteorologist. We just call

2
00:00:04.120 --> 00:00:08.400
<v Speaker 1>him Dave. Dave Frasier. It's a dark and gloomy day

3
00:00:08.519 --> 00:00:12.839
<v Speaker 1>here in the Denver metro. When will the horrible weather break?

4
00:00:14.800 --> 00:00:16.440
<v Speaker 2>Let's let it go for a little while longer.

5
00:00:16.480 --> 00:00:19.519
<v Speaker 3>I'm actually enjoying this and it has been beneficial, there's

6
00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:20.480
<v Speaker 3>no question about that.

7
00:00:21.039 --> 00:00:23.120
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, we're going to continue.

8
00:00:22.679 --> 00:00:23.440
<v Speaker 3>With the showers.

9
00:00:23.600 --> 00:00:27.160
<v Speaker 2>They'll probably take until later this evening to finally dry up.

10
00:00:27.199 --> 00:00:29.120
<v Speaker 3>There's a few of them out there on radar still,

11
00:00:29.359 --> 00:00:31.160
<v Speaker 3>especially at just south of downtown.

12
00:00:31.199 --> 00:00:33.079
<v Speaker 2>Foothills are still seeing wet weather.

13
00:00:33.240 --> 00:00:36.000
<v Speaker 3>Northern Front Range has some showers up near Fort Collins,

14
00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:38.039
<v Speaker 3>and we're seeing a few on the south side down

15
00:00:38.079 --> 00:00:38.920
<v Speaker 3>towards Castle Rock.

16
00:00:38.960 --> 00:00:42.240
<v Speaker 2>But I think it's been it's been exactly what we needed, Maddie.

17
00:00:42.240 --> 00:00:45.119
<v Speaker 2>I I nobody knows that and was ready for it.

18
00:00:45.439 --> 00:00:47.880
<v Speaker 1>Well. I told people earlier that when you come into

19
00:00:47.920 --> 00:00:50.079
<v Speaker 1>Colorado the first time, they make you sign a document

20
00:00:50.119 --> 00:00:52.200
<v Speaker 1>that says if you complain about the rain, you have

21
00:00:52.280 --> 00:00:54.159
<v Speaker 1>to end it by saying, but we need the moisture.

22
00:00:54.880 --> 00:00:56.600
<v Speaker 1>So that's where we are. But we need the moisture,

23
00:00:56.719 --> 00:00:59.119
<v Speaker 1>so we're getting a lot of snow in the high country.

24
00:00:59.240 --> 00:01:02.079
<v Speaker 1>How much of an impact will this have because our

25
00:01:02.200 --> 00:01:06.040
<v Speaker 1>right now, our average snowpack levels are not great.

26
00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:10.040
<v Speaker 3>They aren't, but you know, we've been talking about that.

27
00:01:10.239 --> 00:01:15.519
<v Speaker 3>So you basically load the mountains through about April seventh,

28
00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:19.319
<v Speaker 3>and then after April seventh you start the melting process.

29
00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:24.000
<v Speaker 3>So any additional snow beyond April seventh is helpful. What

30
00:01:24.040 --> 00:01:27.519
<v Speaker 3>we're seeing is snowpack numbers that are below where we

31
00:01:27.560 --> 00:01:30.519
<v Speaker 3>should be for the melting curve, being we've melted it

32
00:01:30.560 --> 00:01:33.439
<v Speaker 3>off pretty quickly. And I think the reason we've melted

33
00:01:33.480 --> 00:01:36.640
<v Speaker 3>it off sooner than maybe we should have is because

34
00:01:36.719 --> 00:01:39.000
<v Speaker 3>March and April were so dry, and we did have

35
00:01:39.319 --> 00:01:40.799
<v Speaker 3>periods of warm stretches.

36
00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:42.599
<v Speaker 2>We weren't you know, we weren't.

37
00:01:42.439 --> 00:01:45.359
<v Speaker 3>Breaking records left and right for high temperatures, but we

38
00:01:45.400 --> 00:01:48.680
<v Speaker 3>did have above normal temperatures with sunny days and that

39
00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:51.920
<v Speaker 3>went into getting the melting process starting sooner. And so

40
00:01:52.040 --> 00:01:54.680
<v Speaker 3>your bell curve, if you will, for where we should

41
00:01:54.680 --> 00:01:58.319
<v Speaker 3>be in the melting process is definitely lower than where

42
00:01:58.359 --> 00:02:00.280
<v Speaker 3>we should because we've melted owner.

43
00:02:00.439 --> 00:02:03.239
<v Speaker 2>So this moisture certainly will help a little bit.

44
00:02:03.560 --> 00:02:04.480
<v Speaker 3>Does it push the.

45
00:02:04.480 --> 00:02:07.079
<v Speaker 2>Snow melt pack back up one hundred percent.

46
00:02:07.159 --> 00:02:10.520
<v Speaker 3>Probably not, but consider it a cherry on top if

47
00:02:10.520 --> 00:02:13.879
<v Speaker 3>you will. It's a bonus and it's been melting. Fortunately,

48
00:02:13.919 --> 00:02:16.280
<v Speaker 3>there have not been a lot of travel problems, even

49
00:02:16.319 --> 00:02:19.000
<v Speaker 3>though advisories were issued in the mountains. Most of the

50
00:02:19.080 --> 00:02:21.680
<v Speaker 3>issues were leigh up high past nine thousand feet. We

51
00:02:21.680 --> 00:02:23.800
<v Speaker 3>were in the mountains last night with our pimploy weather

52
00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.520
<v Speaker 3>bees and the roads were just basically wet. So it

53
00:02:26.680 --> 00:02:29.479
<v Speaker 3>was kind of a win win, right, You're getting the moisture.

54
00:02:29.000 --> 00:02:29.680
<v Speaker 2>Getting the snow.

55
00:02:30.199 --> 00:02:31.639
<v Speaker 3>You know, there's still skiing.

56
00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:32.879
<v Speaker 2>Available in the mountains.

57
00:02:32.919 --> 00:02:35.199
<v Speaker 3>This will you know, go to that people running up,

58
00:02:35.360 --> 00:02:37.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, maybe late this week to do a couple

59
00:02:37.039 --> 00:02:40.800
<v Speaker 3>more turns. But I think this storm has been exactly

60
00:02:40.960 --> 00:02:41.840
<v Speaker 3>what we needed.

61
00:02:42.120 --> 00:02:44.479
<v Speaker 1>Well, let me ask you about snow melt in general,

62
00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:51.120
<v Speaker 1>because I still don't quite understand what conditions exist to

63
00:02:51.199 --> 00:02:54.599
<v Speaker 1>create the flash flood scenes that we've seen, you know,

64
00:02:54.639 --> 00:02:57.479
<v Speaker 1>in the last decade on occasion, not very often. So

65
00:02:57.520 --> 00:03:01.240
<v Speaker 1>if we've already had some melt, is that for river

66
00:03:01.360 --> 00:03:04.080
<v Speaker 1>conditions for rafting and things like that, or are we

67
00:03:04.159 --> 00:03:05.080
<v Speaker 1>taking too soon?

68
00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:06.000
<v Speaker 3>Do you know what I mean?

69
00:03:06.039 --> 00:03:08.439
<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of asking what is the perfect melt cycle?

70
00:03:08.639 --> 00:03:10.520
<v Speaker 1>What does that look like? Compared to where we are now.

71
00:03:11.560 --> 00:03:15.599
<v Speaker 3>I mean, the worst case scenario for rivers and streams

72
00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:18.319
<v Speaker 3>and the mountains to come up would be a heavy

73
00:03:18.759 --> 00:03:21.199
<v Speaker 3>kind of warm rain on top of the snow. So

74
00:03:21.240 --> 00:03:24.080
<v Speaker 3>you've got the heavy water equivalent of the rain and

75
00:03:24.120 --> 00:03:27.280
<v Speaker 3>you're melting the snow at the same time, and that

76
00:03:27.360 --> 00:03:32.599
<v Speaker 3>would increase stream flow. Generally, if we get a really

77
00:03:32.680 --> 00:03:35.560
<v Speaker 3>big spike, you can get a lot of melting and

78
00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:39.199
<v Speaker 3>streams and rivers will come up very quickly. So it's

79
00:03:40.159 --> 00:03:43.280
<v Speaker 3>there's still though, even though we're below where we should

80
00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:46.400
<v Speaker 3>be for the path. I think even you know, just

81
00:03:46.439 --> 00:03:48.759
<v Speaker 3>a layman can look at the mountains and know there's

82
00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:50.319
<v Speaker 3>still a lot of snow up there in the right,

83
00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:52.360
<v Speaker 3>so we can melt it away.

84
00:03:52.479 --> 00:03:54.280
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I mean, you don't want to put the

85
00:03:54.360 --> 00:03:54.639
<v Speaker 2>you know.

86
00:03:54.560 --> 00:03:56.560
<v Speaker 3>You don't want to take a magnifying glass in the

87
00:03:56.599 --> 00:03:58.879
<v Speaker 3>sun and point it at the Colorado Mountains and melt

88
00:03:58.919 --> 00:04:00.919
<v Speaker 3>everything off at once. That would be that would be

89
00:04:00.919 --> 00:04:04.520
<v Speaker 3>horrible and you would have problems and stuff. And obviously

90
00:04:04.560 --> 00:04:08.599
<v Speaker 3>the bigger concerns are the streams and the creeks and

91
00:04:08.639 --> 00:04:13.319
<v Speaker 3>the rivers that run through you know, narrow narrow corridors,

92
00:04:13.400 --> 00:04:16.160
<v Speaker 3>and you know, where the water can't really fan out.

93
00:04:16.199 --> 00:04:18.240
<v Speaker 3>It has to go up because of the you know,

94
00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:19.879
<v Speaker 3>the steep terrain around it, So.

95
00:04:20.240 --> 00:04:22.000
<v Speaker 2>You know those I think the worst.

96
00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:24.600
<v Speaker 3>Case scenario would be a heavy rain event on top

97
00:04:24.680 --> 00:04:25.639
<v Speaker 3>of melting snow.

98
00:04:25.920 --> 00:04:28.319
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I got a question from a texture or are

99
00:04:28.360 --> 00:04:30.560
<v Speaker 1>they texted the Commons Burial of checks line at five

100
00:04:30.639 --> 00:04:33.279
<v Speaker 1>sixty six nine? Oh hey, Mandy, I live on top

101
00:04:33.319 --> 00:04:36.399
<v Speaker 1>of Monument Hill, which I always consider to be the

102
00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:39.920
<v Speaker 1>Palmer Divide. What does Dave consider to be the Palmer Divide?

103
00:04:41.399 --> 00:04:44.600
<v Speaker 2>The Palmer Divide is? I consider it Monument Hill as well.

104
00:04:44.800 --> 00:04:47.199
<v Speaker 2>They actually call it the Black Forest Divide.

105
00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:49.279
<v Speaker 3>Some people do down there, so if you know where

106
00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:53.000
<v Speaker 3>black Forest is, they kind of call it basically Monument

107
00:04:53.079 --> 00:04:54.120
<v Speaker 3>Hill is the peak.

108
00:04:54.800 --> 00:04:56.279
<v Speaker 2>It's marked right on the highway.

109
00:04:56.319 --> 00:04:59.639
<v Speaker 3>The elevation, I believe it's seventy three fifty three and

110
00:04:59.639 --> 00:05:00.920
<v Speaker 3>it's highest point there.

111
00:05:00.959 --> 00:05:02.800
<v Speaker 2>So for me, when I think.

112
00:05:02.639 --> 00:05:03.519
<v Speaker 3>Of the Palmer.

113
00:05:03.240 --> 00:05:06.000
<v Speaker 2>Divide, there is a rise in elevation.

114
00:05:06.120 --> 00:05:08.680
<v Speaker 3>If you look at a three dimensional map of Colorado,

115
00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:12.560
<v Speaker 3>you'll see this little terrain feature that we call the

116
00:05:12.560 --> 00:05:17.120
<v Speaker 3>Palmer Divide that comes east west from the foothills and.

117
00:05:17.199 --> 00:05:18.240
<v Speaker 2>Kind of rises up.

118
00:05:18.279 --> 00:05:20.800
<v Speaker 3>So the spine of it would be Monument Hill, and

119
00:05:20.839 --> 00:05:22.800
<v Speaker 3>then it stands all the way out to the Lineman

120
00:05:22.879 --> 00:05:25.160
<v Speaker 3>on the eastern plains. And so you have a rise

121
00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:29.240
<v Speaker 3>in elevation that starts as you depart Denver, certainly as

122
00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:31.439
<v Speaker 3>you start to go over Surrey Ridge, so you're passing

123
00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:35.800
<v Speaker 3>Lincoln Avenue, you're climbing up to the Castle Pines Parkway exit.

124
00:05:36.079 --> 00:05:38.120
<v Speaker 3>You dip a little bit into Castle Rock, but even

125
00:05:38.160 --> 00:05:40.319
<v Speaker 3>there you're up in elevation. And then as you turn

126
00:05:40.399 --> 00:05:42.680
<v Speaker 3>the corner and head towards the larksbur and Greenland, you

127
00:05:42.759 --> 00:05:45.160
<v Speaker 3>start to make that next line as you pass County

128
00:05:45.199 --> 00:05:48.199
<v Speaker 3>Line Road and go from Douglas County and continue.

129
00:05:47.839 --> 00:05:49.160
<v Speaker 2>South, and then you hit the big up.

130
00:05:49.439 --> 00:05:51.360
<v Speaker 3>All of that is arise and it goes off to

131
00:05:51.399 --> 00:05:53.800
<v Speaker 3>the east and it kind of stands away. So instead

132
00:05:53.800 --> 00:05:59.240
<v Speaker 3>of being a north south oriented foothills Hogback mountains, you've

133
00:05:59.279 --> 00:06:01.839
<v Speaker 3>got this east west feature that is also a rides

134
00:06:01.879 --> 00:06:04.319
<v Speaker 3>and elevation kind of like a mini mountain, if you will,

135
00:06:04.439 --> 00:06:07.279
<v Speaker 3>and the top of that is Monument Hill. There we go.

136
00:06:07.439 --> 00:06:10.240
<v Speaker 1>That is an excellent answer to that question, very thorough.

137
00:06:10.639 --> 00:06:14.000
<v Speaker 1>I have another question when we're like we are right now,

138
00:06:14.079 --> 00:06:17.079
<v Speaker 1>and you could I mean ifeasibly, there are definitely. We

139
00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:19.879
<v Speaker 1>just got a text earlier from someone in Woodland Park

140
00:06:19.920 --> 00:06:22.560
<v Speaker 1>who said it's snowing like the dickens down there. When

141
00:06:22.600 --> 00:06:25.199
<v Speaker 1>you're in that range where you could easily switch from

142
00:06:25.199 --> 00:06:27.959
<v Speaker 1>snow to rain. This is, as I'm about to ask

143
00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:30.680
<v Speaker 1>this question, I realize how stupid it is. You're still

144
00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:32.959
<v Speaker 1>talking about the same amount of moisture though, right if

145
00:06:33.000 --> 00:06:35.720
<v Speaker 1>it's snow, if it's rain, it's the same water. It's

146
00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:38.079
<v Speaker 1>just temperature that has changed things.

147
00:06:39.040 --> 00:06:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so let me I'll just answer this business.

148
00:06:42.079 --> 00:06:44.639
<v Speaker 3>It literally can be a few feet different. You can

149
00:06:44.680 --> 00:06:47.720
<v Speaker 3>literally drive along a rise in elevation and watch the

150
00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:50.120
<v Speaker 3>snow line come in your direction where it's grass, and

151
00:06:50.120 --> 00:06:51.519
<v Speaker 3>then all of a sudden, a couple of feet away

152
00:06:51.519 --> 00:06:53.439
<v Speaker 3>at snow, and then as it goes up in elevation,

153
00:06:53.519 --> 00:06:55.439
<v Speaker 3>the snow is there. We call it a QPS, a

154
00:06:55.560 --> 00:07:00.000
<v Speaker 3>quantitative precipitation. Forecat, we're dealing with liquid all the time.

155
00:07:00.439 --> 00:07:02.800
<v Speaker 3>The question becomes when you're factoring your snow. As you

156
00:07:02.839 --> 00:07:05.319
<v Speaker 3>take that liquid, you've heard this before, and then you

157
00:07:05.399 --> 00:07:07.879
<v Speaker 3>have to extrapolate it out to if a tenth of

158
00:07:07.879 --> 00:07:10.000
<v Speaker 3>an inch was to become snow, how much snow could

159
00:07:10.000 --> 00:07:12.439
<v Speaker 3>it become. And generally you do a ten to one ratio.

160
00:07:12.680 --> 00:07:14.879
<v Speaker 3>If it's cold, it could be a twenty to one ratio.

161
00:07:15.160 --> 00:07:17.720
<v Speaker 3>So the liquid amount is what we're always dealing with

162
00:07:18.199 --> 00:07:21.199
<v Speaker 3>where it's the toughest part in any of a forecast.

163
00:07:21.639 --> 00:07:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Right, QPF forecast the liquid amount. Here's the difference.

164
00:07:25.279 --> 00:07:28.199
<v Speaker 3>If you miss the forecast by let's say a tenth

165
00:07:28.199 --> 00:07:31.160
<v Speaker 3>of an inch on a rainy day, you're not going

166
00:07:31.240 --> 00:07:33.279
<v Speaker 3>to know it unless you go out and shut your

167
00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:35.839
<v Speaker 3>rain gage because it's just going to run down the street.

168
00:07:36.079 --> 00:07:37.079
<v Speaker 2>But if you miss that.

169
00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:39.600
<v Speaker 3>Tenth of an inch forecast, and that can be another

170
00:07:39.680 --> 00:07:41.240
<v Speaker 3>inch or ten inches of snow.

171
00:07:41.319 --> 00:07:44.839
<v Speaker 2>It's a big because you go outside and.

172
00:07:44.759 --> 00:07:47.800
<v Speaker 3>You're expecting four inches and you're shoveling a foot. So

173
00:07:47.879 --> 00:07:50.480
<v Speaker 3>we're dealing with the same tough forecast. It's just a

174
00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:53.199
<v Speaker 3>matter of is it running down and soaking in or

175
00:07:53.279 --> 00:07:54.160
<v Speaker 3>is it stacking up?

176
00:07:54.199 --> 00:07:56.480
<v Speaker 2>And I got to shovel. It doesn't matter rain or snow.

177
00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:58.399
<v Speaker 2>It's a QPF liquid forecast.

178
00:07:58.519 --> 00:08:00.879
<v Speaker 1>As I saw Chad, now we're leaving yesterday and I

179
00:08:00.920 --> 00:08:03.439
<v Speaker 1>said it's a gloomy day chat and he said, better

180
00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:07.319
<v Speaker 1>this than snow. And he was absolutely right. Fox News,

181
00:08:07.560 --> 00:08:11.519
<v Speaker 1>You've now Fox News, Fox thirty one chief meteorologist Dave

182
00:08:11.560 --> 00:08:13.759
<v Speaker 1>Frasier joys always. We'll talk to you again next week.

183
00:08:15.079 --> 00:08:16.879
<v Speaker 2>Anthwley, I'm off next week, but I'll talk to New

184
00:08:16.879 --> 00:08:17.319
<v Speaker 2>week after.

185
00:08:17.399 --> 00:08:19.000
<v Speaker 1>I hope you have a lovely vacation.

186
00:08:20.040 --> 00:08:20.879
<v Speaker 3>It's my vacation.

187
00:08:20.920 --> 00:08:22.399
<v Speaker 2>I got to go get a kid out of college

188
00:08:22.399 --> 00:08:25.519
<v Speaker 2>who's graduating. It's a big yay. Hey, let's get her done.

189
00:08:25.639 --> 00:08:26.839
<v Speaker 3>Exact about it.

190
00:08:27.839 --> 00:08:29.879
<v Speaker 1>You almost got that one off the payroll that has

191
00:08:30.000 --> 00:08:32.200
<v Speaker 1>caused for celebration no matter how you look at it.

192
00:08:34.440 --> 00:08:36.279
<v Speaker 1>All Right, Dave, have a great time. We'll talk to

193
00:08:36.320 --> 00:08:37.039
<v Speaker 1>you in a couple of weeks.

194
00:08:37.840 --> 00:08:38.120
<v Speaker 3>Alight.

195
00:08:38.600 --> 00:08:40.919
<v Speaker 1>All right, That my friends is Dave Fraser will be

196
00:08:41.000 --> 00:08:41.360
<v Speaker 1>right back.