WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.399 --> 00:00:07.719 Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos 2 00:00:07.759 --> 00:00:12.279 with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a 3 00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:16.320 gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for 4 00:00:16.399 --> 00:00:20.239 unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries 5 00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:22.440 of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful 6 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:23.800 slumber under the night sky. 7 00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:30.559 You know, for decades, whenever we looked up at the 8 00:00:30.640 --> 00:00:33.240 night sky and just sort of imagine the future, the 9 00:00:33.320 --> 00:00:37.359 picture was always incredibly romantic, like almost cinematic. 10 00:00:37.479 --> 00:00:40.560 Oh absolutely, very very sweeping and ground exactly. 11 00:00:40.679 --> 00:00:44.960 We picture these sprawling lunar colonies with massive glass domes 12 00:00:45.119 --> 00:00:49.799 and giant, gleaming industrial stations orbiting the gas giants. 13 00:00:49.479 --> 00:00:51.159 Right, the classic sci fi covers. 14 00:00:51.280 --> 00:00:54.960 Yeah, and we'd imagine these bustling interplanetary trade routes, you know, 15 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:58.759 with freighters hauling cargo past the rings of Saturn. And 16 00:00:58.880 --> 00:01:01.640 right in the middle of all that science fiction were. 17 00:01:01.479 --> 00:01:04.000 The asteroids and the floating gold mines. 18 00:01:03.759 --> 00:01:07.519 Right, we imagine them as these silent, drifting treasure vaults, 19 00:01:07.560 --> 00:01:14.200 just floating through the dark, packed with unimaginable quantities of metals, water, rare, 20 00:01:14.319 --> 00:01:17.319 materials all just waiting to be cracked open by some 21 00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:18.280 future civilization. 22 00:01:18.480 --> 00:01:20.879 It was a beautiful dream, I mean, a very compelling one, 23 00:01:20.959 --> 00:01:21.599 it really was. 24 00:01:21.719 --> 00:01:24.400 But what is completely mind blowing to me is that 25 00:01:24.439 --> 00:01:26.640 in just the last few years that dream has actually 26 00:01:26.640 --> 00:01:27.280 crossed over. 27 00:01:27.439 --> 00:01:27.799 It has. 28 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:32.079 It really has, like it has shifted from speculative fantasy 29 00:01:32.519 --> 00:01:37.159 into a very serious, very intense realm of scientific research 30 00:01:37.879 --> 00:01:41.640 and economic planning and frankly intense geopolitical competition. 31 00:01:42.079 --> 00:01:44.640 It absolutely has, though I will say the transition hasn't 32 00:01:44.680 --> 00:01:48.760 been as smooth or as cinematic as the science fiction 33 00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:49.680 authors promised us. 34 00:01:49.760 --> 00:01:51.599 Fair enough, it rarely is right. 35 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:56.239 The reason for that shift is basically a sudden collective 36 00:01:56.280 --> 00:01:59.280 realization of scale. I mean, when you actually run the 37 00:01:59.359 --> 00:02:02.079 numbers on what is floating out there, the solar system 38 00:02:02.079 --> 00:02:05.920 contains resources on a scale that completely dwarfs Earth capacity. 39 00:02:06.200 --> 00:02:08.360 It's hard to even wrap your head around, honestly. 40 00:02:08.080 --> 00:02:09.879 It really is. And we are not just talking about 41 00:02:09.879 --> 00:02:12.159 a few interesting rocks scattered randomly through the void, which 42 00:02:12.199 --> 00:02:14.360 I think is super common misconception. 43 00:02:14.439 --> 00:02:16.719 Yeah, like you just grab a net and catch a shiny. 44 00:02:16.479 --> 00:02:19.360 Rock, exactly. We are actually talking about the foundation for 45 00:02:19.400 --> 00:02:21.879 an entirely new era of human civilization. 46 00:02:22.039 --> 00:02:22.479 Wow. 47 00:02:23.120 --> 00:02:25.719 The overarching reality here is that if we want to 48 00:02:25.759 --> 00:02:28.000 expand permanently into space, if we want to become a 49 00:02:28.039 --> 00:02:33.159 truly multiplanetary species, we cannot keep dragging every single piece 50 00:02:33.199 --> 00:02:33.840 of steel up. 51 00:02:33.800 --> 00:02:35.680 From Earth, or every drop of water. 52 00:02:35.719 --> 00:02:39.080 Right, every breath of oxygen, dragging it all up from 53 00:02:39.080 --> 00:02:42.800 the bottom of Earth gravity. Well, those drifting vaults you mentioned, 54 00:02:42.800 --> 00:02:44.400 they aren't just a bonus. 55 00:02:43.960 --> 00:02:44.879 They're a necessity. 56 00:02:44.919 --> 00:02:50.360 They are the mandatory, permanent foundation for humanity's extraterrestrial industrial 57 00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:54.080 economy because without them, honestly, we're grounded. 58 00:02:54.319 --> 00:02:57.520 Okay, let's unpack this, because the mission of our conversation 59 00:02:57.639 --> 00:03:01.680 today is to figure out how hart harvesting these ancient 60 00:03:01.840 --> 00:03:06.039 floating treasure vaults isn't just about some modern day. 61 00:03:05.879 --> 00:03:07.319 Gold rush, Oh not at all. 62 00:03:07.360 --> 00:03:10.159 It's not about bringing giant chunks of gold or platinum 63 00:03:10.199 --> 00:03:14.000 back to Earth to make a few massive corporations incredibly. 64 00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:15.520 Rich, which is what everyone assumes. 65 00:03:15.240 --> 00:03:17.919 Right, But it is about something much, much bigger. It's 66 00:03:17.960 --> 00:03:22.080 about laying the groundwork for a self sustaining ecosystem. 67 00:03:21.439 --> 00:03:22.919 Off world precisely. 68 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:25.560 But you know, before we can even begin to build 69 00:03:25.560 --> 00:03:28.080 an economy, in space. We really have to understand exactly 70 00:03:28.120 --> 00:03:30.479 what is floating out there waiting to be claimed. 71 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:33.240 We do. We have to look at the geology. 72 00:03:33.039 --> 00:03:35.199 Right like, think about the device you're listening to this 73 00:03:35.319 --> 00:03:38.960 on right now. The rare earth elements inside it required 74 00:03:39.080 --> 00:03:42.599 moving literal mountains of dirt to extract here on. 75 00:03:42.520 --> 00:03:45.280 Earth tons and tons of rock for just a few 76 00:03:45.319 --> 00:03:47.000 grams of material exactly. 77 00:03:47.479 --> 00:03:50.960 Now, imagine sourcing those elements not by tearing up a rainforest, 78 00:03:51.039 --> 00:03:53.439 but by catching a rock that has been drifting in 79 00:03:53.479 --> 00:03:55.400 the dark for four billion years. 80 00:03:55.599 --> 00:03:58.680 It's a profound shift. But to do that, we have 81 00:03:58.719 --> 00:04:02.360 to completely rethink our understanding of what an asteroid actually is. 82 00:04:02.919 --> 00:04:04.879 Because they are not all created. 83 00:04:04.520 --> 00:04:08.120 Equal, right, They're not just giant, uniform boulders. 84 00:04:07.680 --> 00:04:12.039 No, not at all. They're incredibly diverse and their chemical 85 00:04:12.039 --> 00:04:15.479 and geological composition basically dictates their value. 86 00:04:15.800 --> 00:04:17.000 So how do we break them down? 87 00:04:17.079 --> 00:04:20.399 Well, from an extraction standpoint, you can broadly categorize them 88 00:04:20.439 --> 00:04:23.879 into three major types. First, you have your C type asteroids, 89 00:04:23.879 --> 00:04:27.360 which are carbonaceous carbonaceous. Yeah, they're ancient, dark and they 90 00:04:27.399 --> 00:04:30.879 often contain a lot of water bearing minerals and organic compounds. 91 00:04:31.399 --> 00:04:33.600 Then you have S type asteroids, and the S stands 92 00:04:33.600 --> 00:04:38.600 for silicate silicate exactly, primarily silicate rock mixed with the metals. 93 00:04:39.160 --> 00:04:40.959 This is closer to what you might imagine if you 94 00:04:41.079 --> 00:04:43.079 just pictured a standard rock in space. 95 00:04:43.319 --> 00:04:45.519 Got it, So C type and S type. 96 00:04:45.439 --> 00:04:48.360 And this only you have the M type asteroids. 97 00:04:47.920 --> 00:04:49.519 And the M stands for metallic. 98 00:04:49.759 --> 00:04:50.279 You got it. 99 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:52.920 And from everything I'm reading, these are the ones where 100 00:04:52.959 --> 00:04:57.199 the sheer, mind boggling scale of the resources really comes 101 00:04:57.199 --> 00:04:57.759 into focus. 102 00:04:57.800 --> 00:04:59.079 Oh absolutely, these. 103 00:04:58.879 --> 00:05:02.879 Are the ones packed with iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and 104 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:06.720 rare earth elements. But here's what I don't get. 105 00:05:06.920 --> 00:05:07.759 Okay, what's up? 106 00:05:08.319 --> 00:05:11.399 If you look at Earth's geology, all the incredibly dense 107 00:05:11.560 --> 00:05:14.959 heavy stuff, like the massive concentrations of heavy and precious metals, 108 00:05:15.360 --> 00:05:16.800 it all sank. 109 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:18.680 Down right down to the planetary core. 110 00:05:18.800 --> 00:05:21.079 Yeah, it's saying, all the way down while the Earth 111 00:05:21.160 --> 00:05:23.279 was still a molten ball of magma. That's why it's 112 00:05:23.279 --> 00:05:24.759 completely inaccessible to us today. 113 00:05:24.800 --> 00:05:26.959 We are just scratching the crust exactly. 114 00:05:27.120 --> 00:05:30.160 So if heavy metals naturally sink to the center of 115 00:05:30.199 --> 00:05:33.319 a planet during formation, how on Earth were we finding 116 00:05:33.360 --> 00:05:36.600 them just floating completely exposed on the surface of an asteroid. 117 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:40.800 That is the multi trillion dollar question, and the answer 118 00:05:40.839 --> 00:05:44.720 involves a level of violence that is honestly hard to comprehend. 119 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:45.399 Violence. 120 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:49.279 Yeah, what's fascinating here is that these m type asteroids 121 00:05:49.279 --> 00:05:52.120 aren't just random clumps of metal that happened to stick 122 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:54.600 together in a vacuum. Okay, many of them are actually 123 00:05:54.639 --> 00:05:58.120 the exposed planetary cores of ancient protoplanets. 124 00:05:58.199 --> 00:06:02.000 Wait, really expose planetary Yes, you. 125 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:04.360 Have to imagine the early Solar System around four and 126 00:06:04.360 --> 00:06:07.639 a half billion years ago. It wasn't this orderly clockwork 127 00:06:07.680 --> 00:06:08.360 of orbits we. 128 00:06:08.319 --> 00:06:09.879 See today, right, It was much messier. 129 00:06:10.040 --> 00:06:13.959 It was a chaotic, violent, pinball machine of celestial bodies. 130 00:06:14.240 --> 00:06:18.519 You have these early planets forming, sweeping up, mass, heating up, and. 131 00:06:18.519 --> 00:06:22.560 Differentiating, differentiating. That's the process where the heavy stuff sinks, right, exactly. 132 00:06:22.639 --> 00:06:25.959 Differentiation is that exact process you mentioned. The entire body 133 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:28.560 becomes molten, the heavy metal sink to the center to 134 00:06:28.600 --> 00:06:31.319 form a dense core, and the lighter silicates float to 135 00:06:31.360 --> 00:06:33.120 the top to form a crust and a mantle. 136 00:06:33.240 --> 00:06:35.000 Wait, I think I see where this is going. So 137 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:38.639 if a proto planet successfully differentiates, it has a dense 138 00:06:38.680 --> 00:06:41.759 metallic core, a rocky mantle and a crust. 139 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:42.759 It's exactly right. 140 00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:44.160 It's basically a cosmic egg. 141 00:06:44.319 --> 00:06:46.040 I like that, Yes, a cosmic egg. 142 00:06:46.120 --> 00:06:48.959 But if these m type asteroids are practically pure metal, 143 00:06:49.839 --> 00:06:52.319 that means something had to crack the egg. 144 00:06:52.439 --> 00:06:54.879 A lot of things cracked, a lot of eggs. Oh wow. Yeah. 145 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:59.560 During a period astronomers call the late heavy Bombardment, these 146 00:06:59.639 --> 00:07:03.160 nis worlds were just slamming into each other at tens 147 00:07:03.199 --> 00:07:06.240 of thousands of miles per hours. Just total chaos, total chaos. 148 00:07:06.759 --> 00:07:10.680 When a differentiated protoplanet suffered a catastrophic collision with another 149 00:07:10.759 --> 00:07:13.920 massive body, the impact would literally shatter the. 150 00:07:13.879 --> 00:07:15.959 World, shatter an entire planet. 151 00:07:16.079 --> 00:07:19.120 Yes, the lighter crust and mantle, the eggshell, and the 152 00:07:19.160 --> 00:07:23.160 egg white in your analogy, were blasted away, completely vaporized, 153 00:07:23.240 --> 00:07:25.000 or just scattered across the Solar System. 154 00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:27.319 And all that was left behind was the yolk, the. 155 00:07:27.319 --> 00:07:32.120 Yoke, the dense, incredibly concentrated metallic core of a dead, 156 00:07:32.560 --> 00:07:35.800 shattered world, just drifting there, perfectly exposed. 157 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:39.079 I mean, that is wildly macabre, an amazing. We are 158 00:07:39.120 --> 00:07:41.759 literally looking at the guts of murdered planets. 159 00:07:41.759 --> 00:07:43.560 It is a profound way to look at it. Yeah, 160 00:07:43.800 --> 00:07:46.600 and those violent cosmic collisions did the hardest part of 161 00:07:46.639 --> 00:07:47.279 the mining force. 162 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:48.560 They dug out the core. 163 00:07:48.839 --> 00:07:51.680 They stripped away thousands of miles of rock to expose 164 00:07:51.720 --> 00:07:56.079 the dense interior. They created resource concentrations in these metallic 165 00:07:56.160 --> 00:08:00.199 remnants that are simply impossible to find on Earth's surface today. 166 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:02.800 Because on Earth we'd have to drill to the center 167 00:08:02.839 --> 00:08:03.879 of the planet. 168 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:07.439 Which we can't do. Geologic processes over billions of years 169 00:08:07.680 --> 00:08:10.560 have either buried these materials deep near the core, or 170 00:08:10.600 --> 00:08:14.639 they've been dispersed so thinly across the crust through volcanic activity. 171 00:08:14.759 --> 00:08:17.000 Right, so we have to move mountains of dirt just 172 00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:21.120 to extract a few ounces of cobalt or neodymium exactly. 173 00:08:21.720 --> 00:08:25.399 But out there the concentration is practically pure. We're talking 174 00:08:25.439 --> 00:08:31.439 about a single large m type asteroid theoretically containing trillions 175 00:08:31.439 --> 00:08:33.879 of dollars worth of raw materials, trillions with a tea 176 00:08:34.000 --> 00:08:36.480 with a tea. Some of them might hold more platinum 177 00:08:36.519 --> 00:08:39.240 group metals than have ever been mined throughout the entirety 178 00:08:39.240 --> 00:08:40.399 of human history combined. 179 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:42.759 It's almost hard to wrap your head around those numbers. 180 00:08:43.000 --> 00:08:45.360 But you know, it's not just about what they're made 181 00:08:45.440 --> 00:08:47.039 of it's about where they are. 182 00:08:47.279 --> 00:08:49.480 Ah, yes, the geography of space. 183 00:08:49.799 --> 00:08:52.720 Yeah, because when people hear the word asteroid, they almost 184 00:08:52.799 --> 00:08:56.120 universally think of the asteroid belt right way out there 185 00:08:56.120 --> 00:08:57.639 between Mars and Jupiter. 186 00:08:57.840 --> 00:09:01.039 Right They picture Han Solo dodging rock in the millennium. 187 00:09:00.759 --> 00:09:06.080 Falcons exactly millions of objects but incredibly far away, which. 188 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:09.279 By the way, is largely a Hollywood fabrication. Anyway, The 189 00:09:09.320 --> 00:09:11.639 asteroid belt is actually incredibly sparse. 190 00:09:12.440 --> 00:09:16.000 Wait, really, it's not a giant hazard course, not at all. 191 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:18.279 If you stood on one asteroid in the main belt, 192 00:09:18.600 --> 00:09:20.360 you likely wouldn't even be able to see the next 193 00:09:20.399 --> 00:09:21.799 nearest one without a telescope. 194 00:09:21.919 --> 00:09:23.399 Oh wow, I had no idea. 195 00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:27.360 But you're touching on a crucial point about logistics. From 196 00:09:27.399 --> 00:09:30.960 an economic and engineering standpoint, the main asteroid belt is 197 00:09:30.960 --> 00:09:34.159 actually a secondary, perhaps even tertiary target. 198 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:35.399 So where are we looking them? 199 00:09:35.840 --> 00:09:38.639 The primary targets right now are the near Earth objects 200 00:09:38.799 --> 00:09:39.840 or NEOs. 201 00:09:39.480 --> 00:09:41.000 Okay, near Earth objects. 202 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:44.120 Yes, these are asteroids whose orbits have been perturbed over 203 00:09:44.159 --> 00:09:48.639 millions of years, bringing them relatively close to Earth's orbital. 204 00:09:48.320 --> 00:09:50.799 Path, and I guess that proximity makes them easier to 205 00:09:50.840 --> 00:09:51.679 get to it. 206 00:09:51.720 --> 00:09:55.480 Does. But it's not just distance. The geography of these 207 00:09:55.519 --> 00:09:59.960 targets changes everything regarding the energy economics of reaching them. 208 00:10:00.039 --> 00:10:03.440 The energy economics. Okay, this completely blew my mind when 209 00:10:03.480 --> 00:10:07.080 I realized it, because it feels so counterintuitive. How so well, 210 00:10:07.279 --> 00:10:09.480 you would naturally think that getting to the Moon is 211 00:10:09.519 --> 00:10:12.679 always the easiest, cheapest thing we can do in space, right, 212 00:10:12.799 --> 00:10:13.759 because it's right there in. 213 00:10:13.759 --> 00:10:16.879 Our backyard, right it dominates the night sky exactly. 214 00:10:16.919 --> 00:10:20.720 But because of orbital mechanics, there are actually certain near 215 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:25.000 Earth asteroids that require less energy to rendezvous with than 216 00:10:25.039 --> 00:10:26.639 the surface of our own moon. 217 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:28.159 It is wild, isn't it. 218 00:10:28.159 --> 00:10:30.120 It's insane? How is that even possible? 219 00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:33.519 Well, it comes down to understanding gravity wells and delta VI. 220 00:10:33.639 --> 00:10:34.080 Delta V. 221 00:10:34.159 --> 00:10:37.039 Yeah, Delta V is the aerostace term for the change 222 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:40.279 in velocity required to perform a maneuver. It's essentially a 223 00:10:40.320 --> 00:10:43.600 measure of how much energy and therefore how much fuel 224 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:45.000 you need to get from point A to point B. 225 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:47.720 Okay, so more fuel means a higher delta. 226 00:10:47.519 --> 00:10:51.320 V requirement exactly. Now, the Moon might be geographically close, 227 00:10:51.480 --> 00:10:54.399 roughly two hundred and forty thousand miles away, but it 228 00:10:54.440 --> 00:10:56.639 has a significant gravity well. 229 00:10:56.279 --> 00:10:58.480 Right, it has enough gravity to pull the tides on 230 00:10:58.519 --> 00:10:59.639 Earth exactly. 231 00:11:00.039 --> 00:11:02.360 So to land on the Moon you have to expend 232 00:11:02.440 --> 00:11:06.080 a massive amount of fuel to slow your spacecraft down 233 00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:09.720 and counteract that gravity. So you don't just smash into 234 00:11:09.759 --> 00:11:10.679 the lunar regolith. 235 00:11:10.799 --> 00:11:12.559 That makes sense. You have to break. 236 00:11:12.639 --> 00:11:15.320 Right, and if you want to bring anything back, you 237 00:11:15.360 --> 00:11:18.279 have to expend massive amounts of energy to take off again, 238 00:11:18.720 --> 00:11:22.200 fighting that same gravity to achieve lunar us gate velocity. 239 00:11:22.519 --> 00:11:26.320 But a small near Earth asteroid doesn't have that problem. 240 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:28.480 Barely any at all. I mean, a rock that is 241 00:11:28.519 --> 00:11:32.080 a few hundred meters across has practically zero gravity. 242 00:11:31.759 --> 00:11:33.159 So you don't really land on it. 243 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:34.960 No, you don't land on it so much as you 244 00:11:35.320 --> 00:11:37.879 gently dock with it. You just match its orbit and 245 00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:39.320 pull up alongside. 246 00:11:38.799 --> 00:11:41.519 It like two ships on the ocean sort of. 247 00:11:41.600 --> 00:11:44.399 Yeah. You don't need huge thrusters to break and you 248 00:11:44.440 --> 00:11:46.960 certainly don't need a massive launch vehicle to leave. You 249 00:11:47.080 --> 00:11:49.039 just give a little push and you're on your way home. 250 00:11:49.159 --> 00:11:49.679 Wow. 251 00:11:49.879 --> 00:11:53.399 So the delta VI requirement to rendezvous with specific NEOs 252 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:56.679 and return material to Earth orbit is actually lower than 253 00:11:56.720 --> 00:11:58.360 the round trip to the lunar surface. 254 00:11:58.559 --> 00:11:59.519 That's incredible. 255 00:11:59.679 --> 00:12:02.519 It is. This is why these bodies have become the 256 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:07.919 absolute vanguard, you know, the primary targets for future mining missions. 257 00:12:08.039 --> 00:12:11.240 Okay, So we have these exposed cosmic yokes packed with 258 00:12:11.320 --> 00:12:14.679 trillions of dollars in platinum, floating closer than the Moon 259 00:12:14.879 --> 00:12:17.360 in terms of the energy required to reach them. 260 00:12:17.519 --> 00:12:18.279 That's the setup. 261 00:12:18.399 --> 00:12:21.120 Yes, it sounds like the ultimate gold rush. You send 262 00:12:21.159 --> 00:12:23.720 a ship, you grab a mountain of platinum, you bring 263 00:12:23.720 --> 00:12:27.519 it home, and you are the richest person in human history. WHOA, 264 00:12:27.840 --> 00:12:30.840 but wait, I want to challenge this entire premise we do. 265 00:12:31.080 --> 00:12:33.799 If I'm an investor backing a space startup and I 266 00:12:33.840 --> 00:12:37.000 look at the actual physics and economics of this, is 267 00:12:37.000 --> 00:12:40.440 all this talk about trillion dollar platinum asteroids just a 268 00:12:40.480 --> 00:12:43.600 massive distraction, the distraction from what from the water. If 269 00:12:43.639 --> 00:12:46.120 I'm an investor, you're telling me the real gold rush 270 00:12:46.200 --> 00:12:49.759 is actually for ice, I am honestly yes, Wait really Ice. 271 00:12:49.960 --> 00:12:53.600 Yes, If we connect this to the bigger picture, the 272 00:12:53.799 --> 00:12:59.120 entire economic model of space extraction requires a massive paradigm shift. 273 00:12:59.159 --> 00:12:59.960 Okay, walk me through that. 274 00:13:00.440 --> 00:13:03.399 The immediate ultimate prize in the Solar system right now 275 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:08.240 isn't metal. It is water. And to understand why you 276 00:13:08.320 --> 00:13:11.320 have to understand the tyranny of the rocket equation and 277 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:13.480 the gravity well. We're currently sitting at the. 278 00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:16.879 Bottom of the gravity well, the invisible dictator holding all 279 00:13:16.919 --> 00:13:18.240 of human potential down. 280 00:13:18.480 --> 00:13:20.840 It truly is a tyrant. I mean right now, Launching 281 00:13:20.840 --> 00:13:23.399 materials from Earth is crushingly. 282 00:13:22.840 --> 00:13:24.639 Expensive because everything is so heavy. 283 00:13:24.799 --> 00:13:29.799 Exactly, every single kilogram of mass, whether it's a structural 284 00:13:29.840 --> 00:13:33.679 beam for a habitat, a tank of breathable oxygen, or 285 00:13:33.720 --> 00:13:36.639 a human being, must overcome the massive gravitational pull of 286 00:13:36.679 --> 00:13:41.039 an entire planet. Right This requires the Silkowsky rocket equation, 287 00:13:41.440 --> 00:13:44.480 which essentially states that to lift a payload you need fuel. 288 00:13:44.639 --> 00:13:48.000 Makes sense, but fuel has mass, so to lift the 289 00:13:48.000 --> 00:13:50.879 fuel you need more fuel, and to lift that fuel, 290 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:53.000 you need even more fuel. It's just a vicious cycle, 291 00:13:53.080 --> 00:13:56.519 a completely vicious cycle. Modern rockets are roughly eighty five 292 00:13:56.559 --> 00:14:00.720 to ninety percent propellant by mass. They're mostly just highly 293 00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:02.840 explosive fuel tanks required to lift their. 294 00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:05.679 Own fuel, leaving like what ten percent for the actual 295 00:14:05.720 --> 00:14:07.120 stuff we want in space. 296 00:14:07.240 --> 00:14:10.840 If we're lucky, leaving only a tiny fraction of the 297 00:14:10.919 --> 00:14:15.000 rocket's weight for the actual cargo. It is an incredibly 298 00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:17.840 inefficient way to build infrastructure. 299 00:14:17.200 --> 00:14:20.480 Which means returning massive amounts of metal to Earth might 300 00:14:20.600 --> 00:14:22.399 actually be a terrible business plan. 301 00:14:22.519 --> 00:14:26.519 It would be an economic catastrophe, really a catastrophe. Oh absolutely, 302 00:14:26.799 --> 00:14:29.080 let's run the thought experiment. Yeah, let's say you do 303 00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:33.039 go out, you capture a trillion dollars worth of platinum, and, 304 00:14:33.480 --> 00:14:37.120 at enormous expense and engineering risk, you bring it safely 305 00:14:37.159 --> 00:14:39.360 down through Earth's atmosphere. 306 00:14:38.759 --> 00:14:42.759 Okay, without vaporizing it or you know, causing a dinosaur 307 00:14:42.840 --> 00:14:44.440 level kinetic bombardment event. 308 00:14:44.639 --> 00:14:47.080 Right, assuming you land it safely, what happens to the 309 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:50.360 global platinum market the second that cargo touches the ground. 310 00:14:50.440 --> 00:14:54.879 Oh, the supply shock exactly. The sudden massive influx of 311 00:14:54.919 --> 00:14:58.720 supply would instantly crash global commodity prices. I mean, platinum 312 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:01.480 is valuable because it's rare on or it's crust, exactly. 313 00:15:01.519 --> 00:15:03.840 The problem if you suddenly dump thousands of tons of 314 00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:05.919 it onto the market, it's not rare anymore. 315 00:15:06.200 --> 00:15:10.440 The price per ounce plummets. That supposed trillion dollar asteroid 316 00:15:10.799 --> 00:15:14.799 is suddenly worth a fraction of that. But your mission costs, 317 00:15:15.080 --> 00:15:20.200 the research, the rockets, the orbital maneuvers, Those costs remained astronomical. 318 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:23.679 So you've effectively bankrupted yourself by succeeding too well. 319 00:15:23.879 --> 00:15:27.519 Yes, the ultimate pyrrhic victory you bring home the gold 320 00:15:27.639 --> 00:15:29.840 and the gold turns to lead man. 321 00:15:30.000 --> 00:15:33.039 That is that's a brutal reality check for the space 322 00:15:33.120 --> 00:15:33.720 gold rush. 323 00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:37.039 It is the true value of asteroid mining. The paradigm 324 00:15:37.120 --> 00:15:40.440 shift we need to make is keeping the resources in space. 325 00:15:40.440 --> 00:15:43.919 Ah, not bringing them back right, And that is where 326 00:15:43.960 --> 00:15:46.639 water becomes the most valuable commodity in the Solar system. 327 00:15:47.240 --> 00:15:50.240 You mentioned earlier that the C type asteroids are carbonaceous 328 00:15:50.480 --> 00:15:52.159 and often contain water bearing minerals. 329 00:15:52.240 --> 00:15:54.480 Yeah, the ancient dark ones exactly. 330 00:15:54.879 --> 00:15:58.120 That water is the key to unlocking the entire solar system. 331 00:15:58.320 --> 00:16:00.519 I mean water is life support for astronaut It provides 332 00:16:00.600 --> 00:16:02.360 hydration and breathe a baloxygen. 333 00:16:02.039 --> 00:16:03.000 Right the basics. 334 00:16:03.039 --> 00:16:06.120 It is also excellent radiation shielding. A thick jacket of 335 00:16:06.159 --> 00:16:10.360 water around an orbital habitat blocks high energy cosmic rays brilliantly, 336 00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:11.919 much better than heavy metals do. 337 00:16:12.159 --> 00:16:14.159 I hadn't even thought of that water is a shield. 338 00:16:14.279 --> 00:16:17.679 It's fantastic for it. But most importantly, water is fuel 339 00:16:17.799 --> 00:16:18.919 because of electrolysis. 340 00:16:19.000 --> 00:16:20.960 Yes, I mean we all know, water is H two O. 341 00:16:21.519 --> 00:16:24.480 If you capture ice from a C type asteroid, melt 342 00:16:24.519 --> 00:16:28.240 it and run a strong electric current through it, presumably 343 00:16:28.279 --> 00:16:31.679 powered by what massive thin film solar rays or a 344 00:16:31.799 --> 00:16:35.600 nuclear microreactor, either one. Yes, you split the molecules, You 345 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:39.039 separate the hydrogen from the oxygen, and suddenly, sitting out 346 00:16:39.039 --> 00:16:41.480 there in the vacuums space, you have the two exact 347 00:16:41.600 --> 00:16:45.000 ingredients you need for high efficiency rocket propellant. 348 00:16:44.879 --> 00:16:50.159 Liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen hydrolox hydrolox. It's the exact 349 00:16:50.200 --> 00:16:54.080 same propellant mixture that powered the Space shuttle main engines. 350 00:16:54.759 --> 00:16:58.159 By processing water from an asteroid, you have just created 351 00:16:58.159 --> 00:16:59.679 an interplanetary gas. 352 00:16:59.480 --> 00:17:02.039 Station, wo an off world gas. 353 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:06.400 Station, and this fundamentally changes everything about deep space payload capacities. 354 00:17:06.519 --> 00:17:09.079 Think about how we do deep space missions right now. Okay, 355 00:17:09.160 --> 00:17:11.279 if a spacecraft wants to go to Mars or Jupiter, 356 00:17:11.599 --> 00:17:14.680 it has to launch from Earth carrying every single drop 357 00:17:14.680 --> 00:17:18.319 of fuel it will need for the entire journey, including 358 00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:20.359 the deceleration at the destination. 359 00:17:20.200 --> 00:17:22.720 Because there's nowhere to stop along the way exactly. 360 00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:27.640 That severely limits how much scientific equipment, shielding, or cargo 361 00:17:27.759 --> 00:17:32.079 it can carry because Again, the rocket equation dictates that 362 00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:35.200 most of the mass must be fueled just to escape Earth. Right, 363 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:38.680 But if you have water rich C type asteroids acting 364 00:17:38.720 --> 00:17:42.920 as refueling depots in high Earth orbit or at lagrange points, 365 00:17:43.359 --> 00:17:44.920 the math completely changes. 366 00:17:45.200 --> 00:17:48.079 Wait, so a spacecraft can launch from Earth with just 367 00:17:48.240 --> 00:17:50.680 enough fuel to break out of the atmosphere and reach 368 00:17:50.759 --> 00:17:52.119 the orbital depot. 369 00:17:51.920 --> 00:17:54.279 Yes, and fill up the tank in space. Oh, that 370 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:58.079 is brilliant, which means the spacecraft departing Earth can be 371 00:17:58.200 --> 00:18:02.240 radically smaller and cheaper, or more likely, it can use 372 00:18:02.279 --> 00:18:05.400 that saved mass to carry vastly more actual cargo. 373 00:18:05.640 --> 00:18:07.920 Because you aren't carrying all that extra fuel up the 374 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:08.960 gravity well. 375 00:18:08.759 --> 00:18:13.079 Exactly, you've completely broken the bottleneck of human expansion. Water 376 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:16.960 off world is literally the fuel for a self sustaining ecosystem. 377 00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:19.039 It cuts the umbilical cord to Earth. 378 00:18:19.240 --> 00:18:21.960 That completely flips the script. We aren't mining space to 379 00:18:22.079 --> 00:18:25.720 enrich Earth. We are mining space to escape Earth's gravity penalty. 380 00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:29.359 And once you break that bottleneck with fuel, I imagine 381 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:32.000 the metals from the M types and the silicates from 382 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:35.000 the S types become the next phase of the off 383 00:18:35.000 --> 00:18:35.799 world economy. 384 00:18:35.920 --> 00:18:36.839 They absolutely do. 385 00:18:36.960 --> 00:18:39.920 But again kept in space. We are talking about in 386 00:18:40.000 --> 00:18:44.319 space manufacturing, taking those materials and building the infrastructure of 387 00:18:44.319 --> 00:18:47.640 the future in orbit, rather than trying to launch it 388 00:18:47.680 --> 00:18:48.960 all from Cape Canaveral. 389 00:18:49.200 --> 00:18:54.200 That's the logical progression. But manufacturing in microgravity isn't just 390 00:18:54.240 --> 00:18:55.559 a logistical convenience. 391 00:18:55.839 --> 00:18:56.279 It's not. 392 00:18:56.519 --> 00:18:59.079 No, it isn't just about building things without having to 393 00:18:59.160 --> 00:19:02.880 launch them. It's about building things that are physically impossible 394 00:19:02.920 --> 00:19:06.039 to build under the crushing weight of Earth's gravity. 395 00:19:06.119 --> 00:19:09.480 Oh right, here's what fascinates me about this. You always 396 00:19:09.480 --> 00:19:13.519 assume gravity is just you know, normal, a constant. 397 00:19:13.119 --> 00:19:14.839 Right, it's just the background of our lives. 398 00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:18.720 But gravity actually ruins a lot of delicate chemistry and manufacturing. 399 00:19:18.880 --> 00:19:22.759 It creates immense chaos at the molecular level. Down here 400 00:19:22.799 --> 00:19:26.279 on Earth. Any manufacturing process that involves heating fluids or 401 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:30.160