Speaker 1: Welcome to the Auction Brief.
Speaker 2: There's a joy in these games.
Speaker 1: Taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,
Speaker 1: and life.
Speaker 2: We saw your depends on.
Speaker 3: How much you want, and now you're legal analyst and
Speaker 3: auction draft expert here to help you.
Speaker 1: Dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport, there are
Speaker 1: full hearts.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said,
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much
Speaker 2: for joining me for another episode. As you know, we
Speaker 2: have one goal here on the Auction Brief, and that
Speaker 2: is to help all of you win more titles. And
Speaker 2: one of the ways that we do that is by
Speaker 2: bringing the best and brightest minds in the fantasy community
Speaker 2: on here from my weekly disc Dicussions with Drew. These
Speaker 2: conversations are there to help you with the most difficult
Speaker 2: fantasy situations you're going to face in your drafts this summer.
Speaker 2: Let's not delay. Let's get right to this week's guest
Speaker 2: on another installment of Discussions with Drew.
Speaker 4: Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the
Speaker 4: brightest minds in the fantasy industry.
Speaker 2: Welcome into this week's discussions with Drew. Our guest for
Speaker 2: you this week is John Dagel from Established the Run,
Speaker 2: and of course wanted to make sure and mentioned Emmy
Speaker 2: Award winner FSWA Award winner. This guy is always here
Speaker 2: to bring us not only good fantasy football information, but
Speaker 2: plenty of energy. Happens to be one of my good
Speaker 2: friends too, that I got to play little cards with
Speaker 2: last weekend. So welcome to the show, John, Thank you
Speaker 2: so much for making the time for us.
Speaker 3: Funny you say energy, because that's how I actually sign
Speaker 3: off all my professional emails as well. I started doing
Speaker 3: it in college because it caught everyone's attention, but it
Speaker 3: also fits my personality to be energetically Comma, John Dagel.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that, and every time I've had
Speaker 2: you on, you do bring the energy and of course
Speaker 2: excellent fantasy takes as well. So you happened to have
Speaker 2: the honor of running the anchor leg for the auction
Speaker 2: brief this summer. You are the final guests that we're
Speaker 2: on for the summer, so hey, no pressure, I know
Speaker 2: you can bring it, but yeah, so I when I
Speaker 2: saw you this past weekend. Of course, we never get
Speaker 2: enough time to hang out together. But we did spend
Speaker 2: quite a bit of time at a small stakes cash
Speaker 2: game together. That was a lot of fun. But boy,
Speaker 2: was at a mess, wasn't it.
Speaker 3: You Let me tell everyone quickly though, how good of
Speaker 3: a person you are to your friends, because it was
Speaker 3: the kind of game where if you really wanted to
Speaker 3: run it, you could. But given the circumstances of some
Speaker 3: people around us, sometimes they had a little more confidence
Speaker 3: than they'd usually have, and they would go in to
Speaker 3: reraise you, and you would be such a good friend.
Speaker 3: You would literally push their chips back to them and say,
Speaker 3: just call, because you knew you beat them, and you
Speaker 3: knew the plane they are on at three in the morning.
Speaker 3: So yes, I want to give I want to tip
Speaker 3: my hat to you, because you were the one who
Speaker 3: was really helping everyone out.
Speaker 2: I think, I said. I remember one particular pot where
Speaker 2: I just kept saying, just call, man, just call.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say the person, but I remember also
Speaker 3: seeing the hamsterbill in his head, and you said, Nope,
Speaker 3: just call.
Speaker 1: Don't don't do what you're thinking right now.
Speaker 2: I remember that, and it's so funny that you say
Speaker 2: that now, because I until you said that, I didn't remember,
Speaker 2: and I think I did it a couple of times.
Speaker 2: But yeah, that was I mean it was fun. And look,
Speaker 2: I had already made some money and we're The goal
Speaker 2: was not to go in there and fleece everybody who'd
Speaker 2: had a few too many to drink. It was just
Speaker 2: have a good time. So and I had a blast.
Speaker 2: I felt a little bit bad that the whole crew
Speaker 2: wasn't at one table, but hey, you know it is
Speaker 2: a busy is a busy card game there, so.
Speaker 1: The whole cruise in one garage. That's what matters.
Speaker 3: We were all within distance to pat each other on
Speaker 3: the back and yell at each other, and you know,
Speaker 3: make sure if there's a beer run, grab that for
Speaker 3: the other person.
Speaker 1: So it was good.
Speaker 2: The bush Light, Apple boil per Ian hard It's yeah,
Speaker 2: great table, great, that was a lot of fun. That
Speaker 2: was a lot of fun. I can't wait till next
Speaker 2: year already. But well, hey, we're in the thick of
Speaker 2: it now in NFL training camps and preseason and I
Speaker 2: can't even believe real football is on the TV. So
Speaker 2: let's talk about some of this stuff. And last week's show,
Speaker 2: I did a little bit of a training camp hype
Speaker 2: talk with our prior guests, but today I just want
Speaker 2: to hit some sticky situations with you because I always
Speaker 2: respect your takes on things like this. So I'm going
Speaker 2: to hit some stuff that, frankly is stuff I'm wondering about.
Speaker 2: And the one thing that I saw yesterday on Twitter
Speaker 2: and I tweeted out, this is going to change Jaden
Speaker 2: Reid's ADP by about three rounds. But somebody tweeted out
Speaker 2: that Jaden Reid is going to be the guy that's
Speaker 2: playing in two wide receiver sets, and I thought, boy, okay,
Speaker 2: if we had all suspected this or thought this through
Speaker 2: the whole offseason, I think Reid's price would be completely
Speaker 2: different today. Same with Matthew Golden, although his price has
Speaker 2: just never really been that high. What do you think
Speaker 2: is going on in Green Bay with two wide receiver sets?
Speaker 2: Do you buy this that we're going to see more
Speaker 2: Jayden Reid this year on the field?
Speaker 3: I do buy it, if only because we did lose
Speaker 3: both Romeo Dubs and Dontavian Wicks, who are not only
Speaker 3: target earners but also route eaters, and that's kind of
Speaker 3: been the problem for Jaden Reid. Just six routes from
Speaker 3: two wide receiver sets the last two years literally can't
Speaker 3: get on the field whenever the Packers have two or
Speaker 3: fewer wide receivers in their personnel. But now it is
Speaker 3: simply and strictly a three man rotation between Christian Watson,
Speaker 3: Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden. One of my most i'll
Speaker 3: say polarizing, the best tweets, by the way, I don't
Speaker 3: know if you know this, but the most viral, The
Speaker 3: best tweets are when you don't even have an opinion,
Speaker 3: literally just put the facts out there, the data, and
Speaker 3: they kind of speak for themselves. And I put out
Speaker 3: the tweet last year that, like going all the way
Speaker 3: back to high school, I showed Matthew Golden's target shares
Speaker 3: and he had never reached seventeen percent in any season.
Speaker 1: He just can't earn targets.
Speaker 3: But last year that was a sixth seventh round cost right,
Speaker 3: so he was just an easy player of fade. He
Speaker 3: obviously failed to earn targets unsurprisingly as a rookie with
Speaker 3: the Packers, got drafted in the first round solely because
Speaker 3: of his forty times, which happens a lot unfortunately, and
Speaker 3: then it takes a few years to develop. But this year,
Speaker 3: because we don't hate players, we hate ADP, this year
Speaker 3: Golden's going much further despite having less competition.
Speaker 1: Maybe he still can't.
Speaker 3: Earn targets as a sophomore, but the fact is he
Speaker 3: will logically get more opportunity because there's less competition. So
Speaker 3: I kind of want to gobble all these players up,
Speaker 3: quite honestly. Christian Watson, out of all players wide receivers
Speaker 3: tight ends the board, finished fifth and yards per rout
Speaker 3: run when he was healthy, and last year set career
Speaker 3: highs and yards per route run.
Speaker 1: And targets per route run.
Speaker 3: So on a per route basis, when he's on the field,
Speaker 3: all he does is earn targets. And we're talking about
Speaker 3: that kind of profile being drafted around DJ Moore and
Speaker 3: Carnell Tape for example, when I'm gonna make the Christian
Speaker 3: Watson Betton home leagues ten out of ten times. So
Speaker 3: Watson's been a target for me in that range, especially
Speaker 3: since we lost Ricky Piersall for example, who I also
Speaker 3: wanted to take pieces of. Then for Jayden Reid, like
Speaker 3: I said, all it's ever been is can you get
Speaker 3: on the field, can you play in three wide receiver
Speaker 3: sets because when he's allowed to, we know he can.
Speaker 3: For example, when he was on the field last year
Speaker 3: with Jordan Love, it was only seventy five routes, right
Speaker 3: because there were just so many times where Jordan Love
Speaker 3: was on and they instead only used Watson, dubs and Golden.
Speaker 1: But seventy five.
Speaker 3: Plays last year with Jordan Love and Reid led the
Speaker 3: team with a twenty three percent target share. This is
Speaker 3: just the kind of player I want to bet on
Speaker 3: again in his range, given the other dead zone. It's
Speaker 3: not the dead zone, but given the running backs that
Speaker 3: are being taken there mid round tight ends, which we
Speaker 3: know are not a good bet historically, I want to
Speaker 3: take Jayden Reid and again since Matthew Golden Ulto falls,
Speaker 3: I just want all these guys right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I've been surprised that Golden's ADP hasn't
Speaker 2: been higher, even like seeing them trim their wide receiver
Speaker 2: treat and then see Matthew Golden languishing there despite everyone's
Speaker 2: optimism last year. It's been a little bit odd to me.
Speaker 2: But gosh, this Jaden Reid stuff. I have always been
Speaker 2: a read guy. The fact that we're hearing this news
Speaker 2: right now, I haven't really taken very many shots on them,
Speaker 2: and now I'm upset about that because I'm thinking that
Speaker 2: it's going to be a mistake that I've made to
Speaker 2: this point. But hopefully we can rectify that. So but hey,
Speaker 2: by the way, I love the point you made about
Speaker 2: Golden and his target share. He's just never been a
Speaker 2: high target earner and that just gives me pause. It
Speaker 2: makes me think, what is it that he does that
Speaker 2: makes him somebody that never can earn a twenty percent
Speaker 2: target share? I don't do we have any insight into
Speaker 2: why that is.
Speaker 3: No, it's perhaps the route tree he had at Texas.
Speaker 1: It could be a lot of things.
Speaker 3: But we see this from a lot of players, and
Speaker 3: again Taekwon Thornton's one that comes to mind. Other individuals
Speaker 3: that just run fast forties in their draft capital is
Speaker 3: not dictative of the kind of player they are, which
Speaker 3: we're always more skeptical about wide receivers than running backs.
Speaker 3: Since the last decade, actually draft capital has decided has
Speaker 3: been thirty three percent of a running backs fantasy points
Speaker 3: in year one. Basically, just going early tells you like
Speaker 3: a third of the time this player's probably going to
Speaker 3: hit and then we can just.
Speaker 1: Base how we draft them on adplan. It's kind of
Speaker 1: the argument too.
Speaker 3: It's not the same thing, but Dayson Stribbling is like
Speaker 3: the trend right now. He's the hot news because he
Speaker 3: was the first player taken on Day two, number thirty
Speaker 3: three overall pick. The runway is kind of being clear
Speaker 3: of Ricky Pearsall now officially out for the season. Christian
Speaker 3: Kirk also dealing with an injury, but days On Stribbling
Speaker 3: and his loan his only in final year in the SEC.
Speaker 3: Last season just a fourteen point nine percent target share.
Speaker 3: Having said that, it is a different offense that Kyle
Speaker 3: Shanahan really elevates players. I believe Juwan, Jennings, piersall these
Speaker 3: guys are very talented, but I also believe Kyle Shanahan
Speaker 3: runs them open despite their talent and just makes them better.
Speaker 3: Whereas like Matthew Golden, it's not that in the Packers offense.
Speaker 3: Even his loan play in the playoffs against the Bears,
Speaker 3: it was a screen, right, they just got in the ball.
Speaker 3: They could have done that throughout the season that probably
Speaker 3: would have helped him. So I still like Stribbling, who
Speaker 3: goes much later to given the path, but he's not
Speaker 3: going to be asked to earn targets the same way
Speaker 3: as Golden was as a rookie.
Speaker 2: Well, I always enjoy having you on for exactly this reason.
Speaker 2: This conversation about the packers is fascinating to me. Let's
Speaker 2: hit another topic that it's fascinating in that I'm not
Speaker 2: seeing as much discussion about this as I thought I would.
Speaker 2: I kind of feel like I'm shouting into the wind
Speaker 2: a little bit about Quinn Shawn Judkins and Cam Scattaboo
Speaker 2: because they both suffered fairly devastating leg injuries last year.
Speaker 2: I think we can probably agree that Scataboo's was a
Speaker 2: degree worse than Judkins. Am I crazy to think that
Speaker 2: we need to have more caution about these guys and
Speaker 2: their leg injuries and how they're going to perform in
Speaker 2: year end plus one after suffering the injury? Although I
Speaker 2: will say that I'm not seeing an ADP that I
Speaker 2: thought I could see, because there are some people out
Speaker 2: there who obviously have reservations keeping their ADP depressed a
Speaker 2: little bit. What do you think about the injury and
Speaker 2: where they're being priced right now?
Speaker 3: Is it fair It's a hard conversation because we don't
Speaker 3: know the extent of medical updates in the past couple
Speaker 3: of years. Because historically we've bet on the player who
Speaker 3: will come back from injury and then help us in
Speaker 3: the second half of the season. But that's not the
Speaker 3: case because there's usually a slow ramp up time and
Speaker 3: really just inefficiency. Ryan Heath oer at fantasy points. I've
Speaker 3: mentioned them on so many shows I've been on this
Speaker 3: offseason because he's doing incredible work. But even he had
Speaker 3: mentioned that the foremost recent players to return from fibula fractures,
Speaker 3: which includes Kim Scataboo and Quinchawn Jenkins this year, they've
Speaker 3: averaged six point seven fewer fantasy points per game when
Speaker 3: they return that season. So that's kind of the outlook
Speaker 3: I have. Having said that, given what both Judkins and
Speaker 3: Scataboo showed us last season, I do think their ADPs
Speaker 3: are not good but fair. You mentioned that word, and
Speaker 3: I'm glad you used it because there can be gray
Speaker 3: in this conversation.
Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be black and white.
Speaker 3: When when they fall at their current ADPs, I don't
Speaker 3: mind taking them as long.
Speaker 1: As the Great Wall of Wide receivers.
Speaker 3: As I'm dubbing it is still not there because I
Speaker 3: do want to leave the second or third to sixth
Speaker 3: and seventh round with three to four wide receivers, because
Speaker 3: that entire group all the way from you know, Luther
Speaker 3: Burden to when it starts at DeVonta Smith, there's eleven
Speaker 3: guys there. Christian Watson and I already talked about that
Speaker 3: I really want, and so I made Nitpick juckets in
Speaker 3: Skataboo around them. Skataboo was a top six back who
Speaker 3: led his team in touches, showed a high target sharre
Speaker 3: in yards per route run as a.
Speaker 1: Receiver as well whenever he was healthy.
Speaker 3: J Justkins we saw even Todd Munkin has said this
Speaker 3: offseason can be a three down back within this offense.
Speaker 3: We're really questioning the quarterback play there because I trust Monkin,
Speaker 3: I trust the pace and the ball you were going
Speaker 3: to get. I'm just not sure of the inefficiency of
Speaker 3: the targets that are going to happen similar to a
Speaker 3: Bryce Young lead offense and really dampen the ceiling.
Speaker 1: Of everyone here.
Speaker 3: But at the right adp yes, I'm still comfortable with
Speaker 3: Skataboo and Junkins and just crossing my fingers that I
Speaker 3: do not understand the advancements of medicals just yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, completely fair, And I love that that we don't
Speaker 2: have enough gray in our conversation sometimes. So I really
Speaker 2: like that because the people, at least I know that
Speaker 2: listen to my show, They're not looking for declarative statements
Speaker 2: and the conversation is what they're looking for. So I
Speaker 2: appreciate that, and it gives me some good perspective on
Speaker 2: those two guys, because I really have had trouble pulling
Speaker 2: the trigger on either one of them, and I think,
Speaker 2: as you allude to, the ADPs are fair and because
Speaker 2: of that, I look at them like, Okay, that's fine,
Speaker 2: but I'd rather have X, Y or Z when it
Speaker 2: gets to that point. So okay, let's move the focus
Speaker 2: down to New Orleans. And another conversation that I'm a
Speaker 2: little surprised we're not having more of right now is
Speaker 2: what the effect of Alvin Kamara hanging around in New
Speaker 2: Orleans is going to have on Travis etn. You know,
Speaker 2: he started out the off season as somebody that I
Speaker 2: was pretty excited about the landing spot, and they obviously
Speaker 2: made it a priority to go down or to go
Speaker 2: to Jacksonville and grab him. But Camara's hanging around. We
Speaker 2: know he's good catching the ball. Should we be more
Speaker 2: concerned about Kamara nerfing Etn's upside in the receiving game.
Speaker 3: It's a tough conversation because on one hand, I do
Speaker 3: think Etn is in a great situation. The Saints aren't
Speaker 3: offense in general that I'm betting on. We already saw
Speaker 3: Kellen Moore in year one second in the league in pace,
Speaker 3: first in time between snaps, So we're going to get
Speaker 3: that volume. And that was with an offense that with
Speaker 3: Tyler Schuck. Think about after they traded Rashid Shaheed. He's
Speaker 3: simply staring around at chris A lav de bond Vailey
Speaker 3: for a time and Juwan Johnson at the last month
Speaker 3: of the season, we're rotating because Alvin Kamara was already injured,
Speaker 3: Devin Neil and Odrick Estimate. Now you look around at
Speaker 3: everything here and we're talking about Jordan Tyson, who led
Speaker 3: this class and being targeted on thirty one percent of
Speaker 3: his routes across from chrysal Lava multiple tight end sets.
Speaker 3: Since the auser also added some draft capital and veteran
Speaker 3: assistance with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp. Travis Etn now
Speaker 3: to play ahead of Alvin Kamaras. So already the upgrades
Speaker 3: when you zoom out, and remember that the Saints went
Speaker 3: five to one and increased to tenth in yards per
Speaker 3: play when Tyler Schuck was under center with more with
Speaker 3: that worst surrounding cast, and he has this year. It's
Speaker 3: an offensive team I want to be high on. I
Speaker 3: even have bets, for whatever it's worth, on them winning
Speaker 3: the NFC South this season. So I like the overall
Speaker 3: environment and that's the case I'm making four Travis Etn
Speaker 3: since coaches have trusted him historically. He's handled two hundred
Speaker 3: ninety six plus touches and two of the last three seasons. Also,
Speaker 3: the Jaguars offensive line last year finished twenty fifth and
Speaker 3: yards before contact per carry, which means that's an offensive
Speaker 3: line stat every time Basil Tooton and Travis et And
Speaker 3: touched the ball, they basically got wrecked behind the line
Speaker 3: of scrimmage.
Speaker 1: I'm expecting much better.
Speaker 3: Than that, especially since Brandon thorn Over at established the run,
Speaker 3: does all this deep offensive line work, and he ranked
Speaker 3: their line this year or fifth overall, So I am
Speaker 3: excited for ETN. Now I said it was a tough conversation.
Speaker 3: So let me also say the way I'm drafting does
Speaker 3: not lend itself unfortunately a lot of the time to
Speaker 3: Javonte Williams, Kira Williams, Travis Etn, that group of players
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs included. And that's just because of the structure
Speaker 3: of how drafting has worked. The last couple of years,
Speaker 3: running backs have stayed healthy, right, so it's unsurprising to
Speaker 3: learn that the top twelve running backs in points per
Speaker 3: game the last two seasons, only one Javonte Williams last
Speaker 3: year in the eighth round. Only one has been drafted
Speaker 3: outside the top three rounds. So ADP has been pretty
Speaker 3: correct the last couple of seasons on the top twelve
Speaker 3: running backs.
Speaker 1: But the dead zone the.
Speaker 3: RB thirteen through twenty four, so RB two we start weekly.
Speaker 3: They have actually averaged a sixth round ADP the last
Speaker 3: two seasons. And that's simply saying it's not like a
Speaker 3: player take on Travis et and Javonte william Kyle Williams,
Speaker 3: the list go on. It's about telling ourselves and showing
Speaker 3: the data that we can match their hit rates where
Speaker 3: they're being drafted with running backs from the sixth round
Speaker 3: on this year, like those targets for me include like
Speaker 3: David Montgomery, Jalen Warren, Jonathan Brooks. That's an entirely different
Speaker 3: player discussion, but I'm betting I can match Travis Eten's
Speaker 3: hit rate later on, and I'm instead looking at elite
Speaker 3: tight end like Brock Bowers in the second round over
Speaker 3: that group of guys in home leagues where running backs
Speaker 3: are going to go much higher. Typically, I'm looking at
Speaker 3: that great wall of wide receivers I talked about and
Speaker 3: coming away with three or four of them. I'm staring
Speaker 3: at Jalen Hurts in the same round as Chubabber. These
Speaker 3: are just bets I would much rather make than that
Speaker 3: group of running backs. Thus, the long winded way to
Speaker 3: answer your question is, Unfortunately, although I like Eten's outlook,
Speaker 3: I'm probably just not going to have much of him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and That's where I've been finding myself is Initially
Speaker 2: I was pretty excited, but then it's tempered a little bit,
Speaker 2: and RB eighteen doesn't feel crazy, but I just don't
Speaker 2: find myself clicking the button there very often.
Speaker 3: I sat down with our friend jaj Zacharies on his show,
Speaker 3: and like Javonti Williams right last year was the RB
Speaker 3: twelve and points per game, but he was drafting the
Speaker 3: eighth round. That's kind of like what we're telling ourselves
Speaker 3: with Jalen Warren and Jonathan Brooks this year.
Speaker 1: Whereas if you draft the.
Speaker 3: RB twelve and points per game in the third round
Speaker 3: this year, that's like touching yourself and telling your friends
Speaker 3: you had sex, like it doesn't matter, Like you're not
Speaker 3: doing anything at all. And so the point is you
Speaker 3: are not winning if you draft the RB twelve as
Speaker 3: the RB twelve, that.
Speaker 1: Is not how you win Fantasy football. Rats on your floor.
Speaker 3: But what if a Mecca Buca outscores Jackson with and Jigba,
Speaker 3: which is in his range of outcomes, Like we kind
Speaker 3: of saw that right within the first six weeks whenever
Speaker 3: the Bucks were healthy, Lad mcconkee getting Mike McDaniels. Those
Speaker 3: are the kind of bets I kind of want to
Speaker 3: make and instead saying Javonta Williams, I will match you
Speaker 3: because I back and find that hit rate later on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and congrats on all the sacks too, So yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna clip that one. I'm gonna this is what
Speaker 2: it's like around the poker table, by the way, folk, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm going to clip that one up. That's going on Twitter.
Speaker 2: Just kidding. Okay, you mentioned David Montgomery, and that's somebody
Speaker 2: I want to talk about next. I wonder a little
Speaker 2: bit also on this one. Why he's not shooting up
Speaker 2: draft boards. Not that I'm the biggest David Montgomery stand,
Speaker 2: just that I'm a little surprised with the runway that
Speaker 2: he has to produce as a fantasy asset. Why he's
Speaker 2: still languishing there at the bottom of RB two territory.
Speaker 2: And you know, it's a role that we've seen in
Speaker 2: the past with Joe Mixon be very successful. He's kind
Speaker 2: of got the backfield to himself, although he doesn't I
Speaker 2: understand we've got some Woody Mark's issues here, although I'm
Speaker 2: not a Woody Marks guy, but you know, falling into
Speaker 2: the end zone quite a few times. They've got a
Speaker 2: really good defense that allows the running game to continue
Speaker 2: to stay relevant in most of their games. So what
Speaker 2: is it about David Montgomery? Am I missing something? Why
Speaker 2: aren't people more interested in him this year?
Speaker 3: I actually get being somewhat down on him when we're
Speaker 3: talking about the arch types of players we chase just
Speaker 3: because he does lack the receiving profile. But I do
Speaker 3: want to, you know, establish a run. We always say
Speaker 3: in the slack, we just say IKB whenever we nudge projections,
Speaker 3: which is I know better.
Speaker 1: I want to I know better this situation because we.
Speaker 3: See it coming and I don't want to be behind
Speaker 3: on it, especially at his current fifth through seventh round cost.
Speaker 3: For example, to add context to your Joe Mixon reference,
Speaker 3: the Texans traded a seventh round pick for Joe Mixon,
Speaker 3: gave him twenty touches per game. He finished at the
Speaker 3: RB nine at points per game. Right, they gave a
Speaker 3: fourth and a seventh for some more capital for David Montgomery.
Speaker 3: Not only that, but like the additions that the Texans
Speaker 3: made and showing us what they want to be multi
Speaker 3: tight end sets running the ball heavily. The additions they
Speaker 3: made that include Ed Ingram for thirty six million. I
Speaker 3: believe it was in their offensive line. They added Trip
Speaker 3: Brown at tackle. They drafted Kaylin Rudgs starting center in
Speaker 3: the first round. Brown and Ingram in particular, whenever they
Speaker 3: were signed Pro Football Focus noted that those were graded
Speaker 3: as the two best GAT blocking GAT blockers a should
Speaker 3: say at their.
Speaker 1: Position in free agency.
Speaker 3: And what's funny is that then I went to FT
Speaker 3: and Fantasy our friends over there with Jet Ratcliffe Andrew Mackins.
Speaker 3: The list goes on because they have a great data suite.
Speaker 3: And if you look at David Montgomery and gat blocking
Speaker 3: last year, he averaged five point seven yards per carry,
Speaker 3: So I kind of want to zoom out and say, like,
Speaker 3: I know he has not been a great receiver, especially
Speaker 3: when not getting that role behind Jamior Gibbs, but also
Speaker 3: I know if there's one skeleton key, there really isn't.
Speaker 3: But if there is one skeleton key in fantasy football,
Speaker 3: it is touches and projecting for touches and everything shows
Speaker 3: us this guy is gonna get twenty four touches per game.
Speaker 3: So even if it's eighty yards and a couple touchdowns
Speaker 3: per week, you better buckle up because it's something you
Speaker 3: have to have. So I personally like David Montgomery him
Speaker 3: to baseil toutin. I already talked about Warren Jonathan Brooks.
Speaker 3: The way I'm drafting this year just kind of lends
Speaker 3: itself where those are naturally going to be my RB
Speaker 3: twos after a hero RB build.
Speaker 2: Okay, And I want to talk about Beasehall Tutan because
Speaker 2: the steam certainly seems to be continuing with the talk
Speaker 2: on Twitter, and I know that we live in a
Speaker 2: bit of a bubble there talking to all the analysts
Speaker 2: all the time, going on each other's shows, and so
Speaker 2: the Teuton steam seems to be real. What do you
Speaker 2: feel about him right now? He's still fairly affordable at
Speaker 2: RB twenty five, but you know these days fourth round
Speaker 2: to get him, you know, maybe fifth, But what do
Speaker 2: you think about Tuton's price? But also how do you
Speaker 2: feel he's set up in Jacksonville this year?
Speaker 1: And Best Ball?
Speaker 3: If you want to poke holes and draft Chris Rodriguez,
Speaker 3: I get it, because floors matter. You can't take zero's
Speaker 3: in best Ball. That's the agreeious mistake everyone makes. But
Speaker 3: in season long, all we care about is upside, and
Speaker 3: so of course we should then care about and take
Speaker 3: a swing on quite literally the most athletic running back
Speaker 3: in Combine history before or Mike Washington tested for this
Speaker 3: year's class. As I already mentioned, the Jags were one
Speaker 3: of the worst teams in the league. In creating gaps
Speaker 3: and allowing their running backs to get hit behind the
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage consistently. Having said that, Basil Tutons still
Speaker 3: finished sixth in success rate among all running backs and
Speaker 3: converted four of his six carries into touchdowns inside the
Speaker 3: five yard line. They're running backs, actually, it's a skill
Speaker 3: who just can't convert inside the goal line for whatever reason.
Speaker 3: You wouldn't think so of a Nick Chubb is historically
Speaker 3: like one of the worst running backs at that where
Speaker 3: we got goal line carries, it was ne good Basil
Speaker 3: Tutons so far, it's very early one year into his career,
Speaker 3: but has shown he can be trusted at the goal
Speaker 3: line too. So I just like everything about his profile
Speaker 3: quant honestly at his cause. So regardless of if it misses,
Speaker 3: I am not going to be upset if it does,
Speaker 3: because this is the.
Speaker 1: Kind of player I want to bet on historically anyhow, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Think that's a perfect way to end it with Tuton
Speaker 2: is it doesn't matter if we miss These are the
Speaker 2: kinds of bets we make, and that's the kind of
Speaker 2: pro file that we're looking for. And I believe that
Speaker 2: if I remember right, Liam Cohen has even made a
Speaker 2: comment about Tuton's ability at the goal line and about
Speaker 2: his short yardedge ability already this summer, so that should
Speaker 2: give us even more confidence there.
Speaker 1: I do want to note for everyone listening though, that
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens.
Speaker 3: We are hoping Chris Rodriguez has a bigger role in
Speaker 3: the first month because if no one's noticed this Jaguars schedule,
Speaker 3: it's gonna cause some changes. This is also why I'm
Speaker 3: drafting like Travis Hunter in the fourth round. It's inconsequential
Speaker 3: to who cares. He's probably a guy we're gonna drop anyways.
Speaker 1: But in six of their first seven.
Speaker 3: Games the Jaguars play the Browns, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and
Speaker 3: Texans like there's going to be most likely unless Cohen
Speaker 3: is an absolute true Sean mcfay genius, and that's possibly
Speaker 3: is it's what he was in year one, but against
Speaker 3: that schedule, most likely it's going to lead to some
Speaker 3: rotations and changes just to figure some things out as
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence struggles. That's also why I'm not really drafting
Speaker 3: Trevor law Lawrence. Love him, but you're going to get
Speaker 3: a chance in week six or seven to trade for
Speaker 3: him very very low, and so I've kind of been
Speaker 3: in one quarterback league suggesting everyone do not draft Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3: Actually just take a shot on a rushing quarterback like
Speaker 3: Jackson Dart or brock Party in that range instead. But yeah,
Speaker 3: it might be ugly start for Bachel Tooton, but again
Speaker 3: it's a bet I want to make, and we know
Speaker 3: the window. Then a month and a half later, we
Speaker 3: can still trade low for him.
Speaker 2: Excellent little nugget there.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 2: All right. So we've hit some situations here that I've
Speaker 2: been wondering about. I want to talk. I want to
Speaker 2: play a fun little game of what I call this
Speaker 2: or that with some ADP guys. But before I do that,
Speaker 2: one of the things that I try to hit on
Speaker 2: every year is that as fantasy managers, we have this
Speaker 2: tendency to completely dismiss certain offenses every year. And I
Speaker 2: don't think that's a bad idea from the standpoint that
Speaker 2: we need to know who's going to be a productive
Speaker 2: offense because we want players on good offenses, But we
Speaker 2: seem to miss on one or two offenses every year
Speaker 2: that outproduce what we think they're going to do. Do
Speaker 2: you have an offensive mind that everyone's kind of shoving
Speaker 2: to the bottom third of the league and saying they're
Speaker 2: not going to be very good, but you think might
Speaker 2: surprise us.
Speaker 3: I can't necessarily say the Raiders because brock Bowers are
Speaker 3: at to Ashton genty possibly go at the first second
Speaker 3: round turn. The Chargers are the hottest team on the block,
Speaker 3: so can't suggest them. We all know they're going to
Speaker 3: absolutely explodeunder Mike McDaniel this year. So the one that
Speaker 3: I keep coming back to that people are not catching on,
Speaker 3: probably because of their disdain and having these players either
Speaker 3: last year or the last few years, are the Vikings.
Speaker 3: But we need everyone to catch up and catch up
Speaker 3: in ADP, JJ McCarthy last year ranked forty first in
Speaker 3: on target rate, which was which finished forty fifth or
Speaker 3: forty first out of forty fifth among quarterbacks with one
Speaker 3: hundred drumpbacks, whereas Kyler Murray finished sixteenth in that stat
Speaker 3: and delivering more catchable targets justin Jefferson and finished with
Speaker 3: the career low in points per game because he also
Speaker 3: had a.
Speaker 1: Career low and catchable target rate.
Speaker 3: Think about what Kevin O'Connell has done with everyone around
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy, including Nick Mullins Josh Dobbs, he's turned them
Speaker 3: into elite fantasy quarterbacks or four hundred yard passers in
Speaker 3: Mullen's case. JJ McCarthy is the only one that hasn't
Speaker 3: been incapable of having any success. So if we get
Speaker 3: even league average Kyler Murray, it's going to elevate everyone substantially.
Speaker 3: And so I think personally, justin Jefferson and PPR leagues
Speaker 3: is my one oh six over Christian McCaffrey because I
Speaker 3: just want to be higher on the Vikings offense. I
Speaker 3: think in one quarterback leagues, if you missed the boat,
Speaker 3: even though quarterbacks are going so late, like I already
Speaker 3: talked about the running backs that are going in Jalen
Speaker 3: Hurts and Jane Daniels range, so it's easy to go
Speaker 3: elite quarterback. But I also really don't mind waiting until
Speaker 3: the last couple of rounds and getting both Kyler Murray
Speaker 3: and Malik Willis and just streaming them in one Quarterback
Speaker 3: League two. The fact is like the Vikings are going
Speaker 3: to be entirely different this season, and ADP unlike the
Speaker 3: Eagles players the Chargers players, it's not reflecting it for Minnesota.
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. I like it. Okay, let's
Speaker 2: play a fun little game here, and then I'm gonna
Speaker 2: let you go with a couple of targets and fades.
Speaker 2: But this is a game, like I said, I called
Speaker 2: this or that because all of these guys I'm going
Speaker 2: to ask you about. I've got six situations, three running
Speaker 2: back situations, three wide receiver situations. Who are you clicking
Speaker 2: on when it gets to you? Now, you don't have to.
Speaker 2: I understand that when we play best ball, we try
Speaker 2: to diversify, we try to make different clicks. And also
Speaker 2: I understand that there may be players in this range
Speaker 2: that you would rather have. But for the purpose of
Speaker 2: this exercise, you're not allowed to draft anybody else. And
Speaker 2: we're playing for a redraft situation for one shot at
Speaker 2: it here. This is not a best ball situation. So
Speaker 2: the first one I want to ask about is James
Speaker 2: Cook versus Ashton Genty. Who is it for?
Speaker 3: You? Love both of them, but I'm personally going to
Speaker 3: go Ashton Genty, which I know is yes, yeah, well no, no, no,
Speaker 3: it's the minority answer.
Speaker 1: Don't worry. I'm in an island here, and I love
Speaker 1: James Cook. That's fine.
Speaker 3: I actually have them in redraft tiers. I have him
Speaker 3: the same tier I do Cook as Christian McCaffrey and
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor because that's the range of outcomes for James Cook.
Speaker 3: I have Genty a tier below with Saquon Barkley only
Speaker 3: because you can get them in home leagues at the
Speaker 3: first second round turn. Even though I do think Saquon
Speaker 3: Barkley can easily outscore Christian McCaffrey this year, but again
Speaker 3: we're only talking about these two players, and so I'm
Speaker 3: betting on Ashton Genty this season. Last year, the Raiders
Speaker 3: scored eighty percent of their touchdowns through the air, and
Speaker 3: over the last decade, none of the teams that have
Speaker 3: scored eighty percent of their touchdowns have been able to
Speaker 3: eclipse that mark the following season, and that regression has
Speaker 3: led to a lot of meandering for running backs the
Speaker 3: following year. If you logically do the study and think about, well,
Speaker 3: if we think the offense is going to score more
Speaker 3: rushing touchdowns, the running back probably succeeded and ended up
Speaker 3: being like if you look at the study, I have
Speaker 3: it on Twitter. I'm not going to sit all the
Speaker 3: names here ended up being a lot of like Javonte
Speaker 3: Williams right where it's like RB sixteen finishes the RB twelve,
Speaker 3: the RB eighteen finishes the RB twenty eight.
Speaker 1: Lots of meandering, but the hits not the misses. The
Speaker 1: hits were massive.
Speaker 3: It led to such situations such as Orleans Darkwall, who
Speaker 3: went undrafted in twenty seventeen for the Giants only to
Speaker 3: finishes the RB forty in points per game, and then
Speaker 3: James Robinson in twenty twenty three, who finishes the overall
Speaker 3: RB seven despite being like a twelfth round on selection
Speaker 3: in home leagues. And so Ashton Genty, like I talked about,
Speaker 3: already being drafted at the first second round turn, maybe
Speaker 3: goes a little bit more later than that if your
Speaker 3: home league, like thinks the Raiders are going to be
Speaker 3: the same unit this year. But Genty's a player I
Speaker 3: absolutely want to bet on this season.
Speaker 2: That's interesting. Yeah, I like Cook more. But again we're
Speaker 2: splitting here is here that's the point of exercise. So
Speaker 2: all right, the next one is you know I'm hearing
Speaker 2: through the discussion already. You don't have a lot of
Speaker 2: these guys anyway, But who do you want between Javonte
Speaker 2: Williams and Kirene Williams.
Speaker 3: It's actually Javonte Williams for me.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Kyen Willias really quick.
Speaker 3: So historically we know Sean mcfay has leaned on one
Speaker 3: running back and we've always got by with those touches.
Speaker 3: Sean mcvay's offense has never been one that targets his
Speaker 3: running back, so we don't really get targets, but we
Speaker 3: always got a workhorse. And again, if there's any skeleton
Speaker 3: key for running backs and fans football, it's just projecting
Speaker 3: and getting touches, because then you can counter even inefficiency
Speaker 3: if you fall forward for a touchdown very easily.
Speaker 1: You gotta get touches.
Speaker 3: Kyle Williams last year was at seventy four percent of
Speaker 3: the team's backfield touches before their by and then from
Speaker 3: week seven on he went all the way down to
Speaker 3: sixty sixteen percent if you include I'm sorry, sixty percent,
Speaker 3: not sixteen if you include the postseason, So a fourteen
Speaker 3: percent drop, and that's because Blake Korum was just a
Speaker 3: better player who deserved more touches. Only Devon h Chan
Speaker 3: actually finished with a higher rate of ten yard carries
Speaker 3: than Blake Korum. So if we're talking about a more
Speaker 3: explosive back now who already showed for the second half
Speaker 3: of the season, he was going to get more touches
Speaker 3: and eat into Kyron Williams' share. We're talking about someone
Speaker 3: who goes four to six rounds later in coreum that
Speaker 3: could also lead the team in touches, which makes it
Speaker 3: hard to draft Klin Williams around Javonte Williams range. So
Speaker 3: I'm not going to have any Klon Williams. Actually, I'd
Speaker 3: rather just play it through the passing game for Javonte.
Speaker 3: It's interesting too, though, because maybe more carries and a
Speaker 3: heavier running offense happens. They have elite talent through Dak
Speaker 3: Prescott in the passing game, so it probably continues that route.
Speaker 3: But the Cowboys defense is not going to be.
Speaker 1: The same as last year.
Speaker 3: We are talking about Caleb Downs, who was rumored to
Speaker 3: be the best defensive player in the entire draft, potentially
Speaker 3: also a chess piece like Kyle Hamilton who can move
Speaker 3: around and cover both tight ends and wide receivers. Whenever
Speaker 3: they acquired Quinn Williams in the second half of the season,
Speaker 3: whenever he played, they were one of the league's top
Speaker 3: three run defenses teams. They finally became a funnel well
Speaker 3: where teams had to pass on them because teams could
Speaker 3: not do both, whereas before Williams was added, they could
Speaker 3: just run and pass on them. And so I do
Speaker 3: wonder if we're going to get tighter game scripts or
Speaker 3: more Cowboys leads and not trailing, which would be then
Speaker 3: good for Javonte Williams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that comment about the Dallas defense because
Speaker 2: I do think we're going to see something different there,
Speaker 2: So it is a consideration. Let's flip over to the
Speaker 2: wide receivers for a minute. I've been struggling with Drake London,
Speaker 2: and the narrative I've been running with over the past
Speaker 2: week is maybe we're not concerned enough about the situation
Speaker 2: in Atlanta with both of their starting quarterbacks currently hurt
Speaker 2: and having a long history of being hurt. So when
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Drake London in that second round, I'm
Speaker 2: also looking at AJ Brown and I just can't seem
Speaker 2: to click on London. What do you think about Brown
Speaker 2: versus London On a.
Speaker 3: Per rop basis, London was amazing and that's why he's
Speaker 3: my pick over Aj Brown.
Speaker 1: Again we're nitpicking.
Speaker 3: I even think in the rankings I have them back
Speaker 3: to back. But before week eleven, whenever he suffered a
Speaker 3: season anything injury, London was targeted on thirty one percent
Speaker 3: of the route so sixth in the entire league, for
Speaker 3: a twenty eight percent target share which finished seventh and
Speaker 3: forty percent of his team's air yards. A guy who
Speaker 3: can both play intermediate from the slot or get downfilled
Speaker 3: and win. So I'm going to take Drake London a J. Brown,
Speaker 3: still an elite talent who's in a more crowded wide
Speaker 3: receiver tree, or at least we can say it is
Speaker 3: solely Drake London and Kyle Pits. Perhaps Zachariah Branch breaks out,
Speaker 3: that wouldn't be too shocking. But also I do wonder
Speaker 3: if Branch even has a full route tree. He led
Speaker 3: this class in his career rate of targets that came
Speaker 3: on screens. Just an explosive guy. You want to get
Speaker 3: more involved closer to the line of scrimmage.
Speaker 1: So I personally like London.
Speaker 3: The indoor environments should help out as well. I think
Speaker 3: it's at least it's eleven game it's eleven or thirteen.
Speaker 3: I think it's eleven games indoors with the Falcons considering this,
Speaker 3: Saints are also obviously a dome.
Speaker 2: All righty, let me stick with the wide receivers here,
Speaker 2: And this is an interesting one for me because I
Speaker 2: have just never been a Za Flowers guy, but there
Speaker 2: seems to be some real conversation about how he's going
Speaker 2: to look in a different offense. And frankly, we understand
Speaker 2: there's not a lot of target competition there either at
Speaker 2: the wide receiver spot, although he I argue with this
Speaker 2: as a Hoosier fan that they've got a pretty good
Speaker 2: receiver and Elijah through out there. But that aside. What
Speaker 2: do we think about Zay Flowers this year? And specifically
Speaker 2: I'm going to put him against DeVante Smith because I'm
Speaker 2: pretty excited about Davonte Smith. What do you think about
Speaker 2: these two? Who are you clicking on between those guys?
Speaker 3: I'm going to say positive things about both players, and
Speaker 3: I want both, so I will tell you I have
Speaker 3: DeVonta Smith and a whole tier ahead of Zay Flowers,
Speaker 3: so that answers your question. But now I'm going to
Speaker 3: say the positive things about both player because I think
Speaker 3: both have promising outlooks.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six for the Ravens.
Speaker 3: Baltimore averaged twenty four point eight pass attempts last year,
Speaker 3: which was the second fewest of the last decade, and
Speaker 3: the six teams to average twenty seven attempts or fewer
Speaker 3: in the last decade, they increase their passes per game
Speaker 3: by six point one the following year. So I just
Speaker 3: naturally think we're going to get more volume due to
Speaker 3: regression for Baltimore's passing game. Not only that, but Jay
Speaker 3: Flowers has never seen because of the target tree he
Speaker 3: was previously afforded under his past play callers. Three seasons
Speaker 3: in the league, He's never seen more than seven end
Speaker 3: zone targets. He's just never been used like that style
Speaker 3: of player that had the ceiling of like a Monron
Speaker 3: Saint Brown. Let's say, because he's not used in the
Speaker 3: red zone, that's never his route tree. That could change, though,
Speaker 3: given we're getting both a head coaching and offensive coordinator change.
Speaker 3: So due to volume and squinting to see a different
Speaker 3: route path. I like Zay Flowers a lot, but DeVonta
Speaker 3: Smith when we talk about offenses we're betting on the
Speaker 3: Eagles are also the one outside of the vikings that
Speaker 3: everyone should ignore Kevin Patulo last.
Speaker 1: Year and the.
Speaker 3: Incredibly incorrect position he put all his elite talent in.
Speaker 3: So let's start quickly with aj Brown.
Speaker 1: Off the field.
Speaker 3: DeVonta Smith has run one hundred and fifty nine routes
Speaker 3: over the past two years, and he was targeted on
Speaker 3: thirty nine percent of them, for a forty nine percent
Speaker 3: target share That is obviously too good to translate. DeVonta
Speaker 3: Smith is not going to end with a forty percent
Speaker 3: target shore this year, let alone forty nine percent before
Speaker 3: even talking about getting to the twenty eight to thirty
Speaker 3: percent range in which our threshold is. Then literally seven
Speaker 3: out of ten times you are a top twelve wide receiver.
Speaker 3: DeVonta Smith is the one who's the real value here.
Speaker 3: Not to mention Sean Mannion coming in entirely different play
Speaker 3: caller who all the right things has been said both
Speaker 3: from him and the team in working under him so far,
Speaker 3: to the point even where last year the Eagles working
Speaker 3: from under center, which allows right for more play action,
Speaker 3: it just allows you to do so many more different things.
Speaker 3: On offense, the Eagles passed the ball from under center
Speaker 3: forty seven times, which was the third lowest rate, third
Speaker 3: lowest amount in the league. Their first play reportedly out
Speaker 3: of camp was literally under center twelve personnel toss to
Speaker 3: Saquon Barkley. What you saw last year is going to
Speaker 3: be entirely different this season with still I know we
Speaker 3: lost a j Brown, but with still elite talent considering
Speaker 3: we're talking about one more like last Hurrah, similar to
Speaker 3: Christian McCaffrey last year for Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts coming
Speaker 3: off a career low end scramble rate and carries per game,
Speaker 3: that's going to increase under Sean Mannion McKay lemon, first
Speaker 3: round wide receiver who also, unlike Lad McConkie and Jackson's
Speaker 3: in the jigball won from out wide when he wasn't
Speaker 3: playing the slot at usc three point five yards per
Speaker 3: out run from outwide for McKay lemon. I don't think
Speaker 3: people understand the talent and Eli Stowers and mckaye lemon
Speaker 3: that the Eagles have. With the new play calling, that's
Speaker 3: going to translate and make them all great bets on
Speaker 3: their ADPs, including DeVonta Smith.
Speaker 2: My King's Classic team loves hearing that because I took
Speaker 2: sa kwon Barkley and the auctions my first one, and
Speaker 2: really it's our buddy Brian Drake has been sounding the
Speaker 2: alarm on the Eagles offense that this is going to
Speaker 2: be a new look and that we maybe are underestimating
Speaker 2: a little bit of what they can do. So all right,
Speaker 2: love that breakdown, and I love the poll on when
Speaker 2: AJ Brown's off the field. Obviously we're not going to
Speaker 2: see those lofty numbers, but Boyle boy, I don't think
Speaker 2: it's crazy to think that he's going to pull twenty
Speaker 2: eight to thirty percent. DeVante Smith and in that new
Speaker 2: new look offense, I'm hearing all the right things there
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia. Okay, let's move on, because we're getting too
Speaker 2: close to the end. I've got a heart out here
Speaker 2: to actually you know that, No, bro, Bro, those are
Speaker 2: not rambles, by the way, I want to clarify. Those
Speaker 2: are action, actionable, information packed answers. And we love it.
Speaker 2: I love it, My my listeners love it. You're a
Speaker 2: popular guest on the show, and I I just have
Speaker 2: a day job, so you know, I got to get
Speaker 2: to that at some point, but I want to hear
Speaker 2: from you. It's one of my favorite things to do
Speaker 2: and one of the things that my audience likes. Give
Speaker 2: me a couple guys. I mean, we've talked about a
Speaker 2: lot of guys. So if you have a repeat here,
Speaker 2: no big deal, but two guys that you're targeting this
Speaker 2: summer and two guys that you're fading, you can't seem
Speaker 2: to click the button on.
Speaker 3: Let's go with the fades first off, because they are
Speaker 3: based on ranges. Like when people talk about the big
Speaker 3: one is Tyler Warren, just because think about where he's going.
Speaker 3: Pull up ADPC for yourself and you miss out on
Speaker 3: the wide receivers we've already talked about, say Flowers, Lad McConkie,
Speaker 3: Mecca Buka if you want running backs in that range,
Speaker 3: Facial two, David Montgomery if you want to lead quarterback
Speaker 3: in that range, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts. All
Speaker 3: these players I've mentioned like have potential still to finish
Speaker 3: with higher ADPs. And the case of the quarterbacks and
Speaker 3: the wide receivers, wouldn't be shocking if one finishes top three,
Speaker 3: top four, wouldn't be shocking if either Hurts, Jackson or
Speaker 3: Daniels finishes the overall QB one over Josh Allen. But
Speaker 3: the fact is all of them are being drafted around
Speaker 3: Tyler Warren when, as we know historically, mid round tight
Speaker 3: end is the worst possible bet you can make at
Speaker 3: a onesie position in a home league. We know we
Speaker 3: can instead wait, similar to our approach last year with
Speaker 3: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goddard, Tucker Kraft, Juwan Johnson, and Harold
Speaker 3: fannin off waiver wire, we can find and duplicate mid
Speaker 3: round tight end points. It's the most volatile and easiest
Speaker 3: position possible to just mimic on the back end for
Speaker 3: inconsequential picks.
Speaker 1: You can't do that when you're drafting Tyler Warren around
Speaker 1: those individuals.
Speaker 3: So whereas everyone will go on social media and argue
Speaker 3: for Tyler Warren against other tight ends, I am here
Speaker 3: arguing against Tyler Warren because of actually because of then,
Speaker 3: when you're taking this into your practice and your drafts,
Speaker 3: you just can't get him logically and reasonably. So I
Speaker 3: do not like drafting Tyler Warren. I will easily make
Speaker 3: the same argument for Chuba Hubbard, who even when we
Speaker 3: saw last year when Rico Daudle became Walter Payton for
Speaker 3: two games, Chewba Hubbard came back and was strictly in
Speaker 3: a committee, not even as a team's pass catching back.
Speaker 3: So what are we expecting now from Chewba Hubbard for
Speaker 3: him to be, you know, a receiver around Jonathan Brooks,
Speaker 3: who you know, we have a very limited sample of
Speaker 3: the last couple of years, the last few times we
Speaker 3: saw him, but he was still targeted on thirty percent
Speaker 3: of his routes. He's a guy who did play on
Speaker 3: passing downs, and he's going to go a few rounds
Speaker 3: ahead of Brooks in your home league. It's not best ball,
Speaker 3: adp but also best ball is Sharper right now that
Speaker 3: the guys who show up and read a magazine in
Speaker 3: your league. So I think Chuba Hubbard is also that's
Speaker 3: also going around elite players that I just can't ever
Speaker 3: find myself drafting, even though these are two players that
Speaker 3: everyone wants and talks about.
Speaker 2: I have zero percent Chuba Hubbard right now. I think
Speaker 2: the only way he makes sense is in really deep leagues,
Speaker 2: maybe like The King's Classic, where you need those plotters,
Speaker 2: you need those between the twenty grinders that are cheap
Speaker 2: boption point two. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, Okay, give me
Speaker 2: a couple of guys you're targeting, oh.
Speaker 3: So many Saquon Barkley second round again that it's really
Speaker 3: screams first round value. And just you ignore last year,
Speaker 3: same thing happened for Christian mccarccaffrey. Right, Sakon Barkley has
Speaker 3: four and eighty two touches two years ago. You can
Speaker 3: nitpick them easily in the first round last year, since
Speaker 3: we already foresaw that ADP first round last year was
Speaker 3: the most accurate we've ever seen it be. So it's
Speaker 3: easy to start saying, I have to poke holes in
Speaker 3: someone here, and I want to poke holes in the
Speaker 3: guy who's upside I question. Sekon Barkley then average literally
Speaker 3: seven point seven fewer points per game as the RB
Speaker 3: fourteen last year, whereas this year, I'm betting on that
Speaker 3: bounce back given his inefficient that he did not reach
Speaker 3: that workload. Whereas Christian McCaffrey had the tenth most touches
Speaker 3: of the twenty first century. I'm betting against Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 3: this season, similar to betting against Barkley last year. So
Speaker 3: love second round Saquon Barkley. All the wide receivers I
Speaker 3: talked about, but If we're talking about which ones I'm
Speaker 3: coming away with more, it's Lad maconkie is a very
Speaker 3: big one who I think will follow in your home
Speaker 3: leagues as well, given last year's circumstances. But also for McConkie,
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniels led the league in their rate of dropbacks
Speaker 3: that include in motion sixty nine percent of his plays
Speaker 3: during his four year stint with the Dolphins, and mconkie's
Speaker 3: average a twenty three percent target share for motion since
Speaker 3: entering the league the last couple of years. For reference,
Speaker 3: that twenty three percent target share, it practically mirrors what
Speaker 3: he averaged as a rookie when everyone was drafting him
Speaker 3: much earlier during last year's offseason at this time, so
Speaker 3: I really just think we're going right back to, you know,
Speaker 3: that rookie season fifteen points per game, better than that
Speaker 3: in a more efficient offense as opposed to last year's
Speaker 3: finish with just eleven point three points per game. So
Speaker 3: I also love Lad McConkie. And then the late round
Speaker 3: guys for everyone I talked about are Jonathan Brooks for sure,
Speaker 3: you know, for everything I just mentioned over Chewba Hubbard
Speaker 3: because I do believe it's inconsequential for late round tight
Speaker 3: ends if you're waiting on it. I like Isaiah Likely,
Speaker 3: who with Malik Neighbors basically in a ramp up period
Speaker 3: and it's wide open behind Neighbors. That's how we those
Speaker 3: last round options that can then mimic the mid round
Speaker 3: tight ends like Tyler Warre and Harold Fannin on a
Speaker 3: name basis, in a rankings and projections basis, of course
Speaker 3: they can't, but structurally that's how we win. And Isaiah
Speaker 3: Likely is an athlete who has really no target target
Speaker 3: competition for wide receiver one and two. Same thing for
Speaker 3: Chicka con Quo. So Chicka cong Quo finished tenth and
Speaker 3: miss missed forced tackles, missed per catch, last year athlete,
Speaker 3: no target competition. I want those two guys to then
Speaker 3: match Warren Fannin and then for a late round running
Speaker 3: back I've been taking. I mentioned Jonathan Brooks, oh the
Speaker 3: two rookies Jonah Coleman and Nick Singleton, it's not really
Speaker 3: catching on their profiles or what they do because their
Speaker 3: last round stashes. It's probably going to be a longer
Speaker 3: time for Nick Singleton to hit. But the fact that
Speaker 3: Tony Poler's yards per route run has decreased for three
Speaker 3: consecutive seasons, whereas Nick Singleton one point five yards per
Speaker 3: out run in each of the last three seasons in
Speaker 3: college a double digit target share in both of his
Speaker 3: last two seasons at Penn State.
Speaker 1: That's great, Jonah Coleman.
Speaker 3: If you look at early breakout age, six point eight
Speaker 3: yards per carry insane at only twenty years old, not
Speaker 3: to mention he also was a receiving back and three
Speaker 3: do workhorse eighty catches on ninety targets the past couple
Speaker 3: of years. So yes, I like Jonah Coleman given that
Speaker 3: he also the Broncos gave him more draft capital than
Speaker 3: an RJ.
Speaker 1: Harvey.
Speaker 2: Well, folks, they don't pay him the big bucks. They
Speaker 2: don't hand out Emmys to guys who I'm sorry we
Speaker 2: said this off air and I'm just giving my friend
Speaker 2: a little bit of shit here because Deegel is a
Speaker 2: fantastic fantasy analyst, good dude, and I consider him to
Speaker 2: be one of my close friends as well. So thank
Speaker 2: you so much for the time. You want to plug
Speaker 2: real quick where people can find your work.
Speaker 3: Right now established the run and it's that time of
Speaker 3: the year.
Speaker 1: Everything's coming out including.
Speaker 3: Three shows per week the free podcast and YouTube feed.
Speaker 3: We just did a twelve team home league mock with
Speaker 3: the entire Established to Run crew where it's nothing but
Speaker 3: arguable because we all come at this so differently, including
Speaker 3: some of the strategies I've talked about throughout this show.
Speaker 3: So please go watch that video if you want to
Speaker 3: see Silva struggle the work sleeper, which is always a
Speaker 3: great time. Not to mention all the team previews and
Speaker 3: then the redraftiers and rankings and articles I Established the Run.
Speaker 2: Right now, Okay, all right, well, hey, this has been
Speaker 2: a lot of fun. I really appreciate the time, and
Speaker 2: you know you crushed it like always, so a lot
Speaker 2: of actionable information for the listeners. So thank you again
Speaker 2: to John Dagel from Established the Run. It's been another
Speaker 2: excellent dis question with Drew. Thanks for joining us. All right,
Speaker 2: that's going to wrap up another week of discussions with
Speaker 2: Drew as we strive to talk with the smartest people
Speaker 2: in the business every single week. Don't forget to tune
Speaker 2: in Thursday morning for my solo time and the auction brief. Mike,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us this week. I'll
Speaker 2: talk to you real soon. The Auction Brief is adjourned.
Speaker 4: The Auction Brief is a journ that'll do it for
Speaker 4: this week's episode. See you next time on the Auction
Speaker 4: Brief