WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.040 --> 00:00:03.640 Welcome to the Auction Brief. 2 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:09.080 There's a joy in these games. 3 00:00:10.320 --> 00:00:13.759 Taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law, 4 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:15.400 and life. 5 00:00:16.920 --> 00:00:18.640 We saw your depends on. 6 00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:23.039 How much you want, and now you're legal analyst and 7 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:25.199 auction draft expert here to help you. 8 00:00:25.199 --> 00:00:31.120 Dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport, there are 9 00:00:31.600 --> 00:00:32.240 full hearts. 10 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:40.200 Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said, 11 00:00:40.359 --> 00:00:42.719 I'm your host, Drew Davenport, and thank you so much 12 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:46.280 for joining me for another episode. As you know, we 13 00:00:46.439 --> 00:00:49.399 have one goal here on the Auction Brief, and that 14 00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:53.840 is to help all of you win more titles. And 15 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:55.560 one of the ways that we do that is by 16 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:58.399 bringing the best and brightest minds in the fantasy community 17 00:00:58.679 --> 00:01:01.880 on here from my weekly disc Dicussions with Drew. These 18 00:01:01.920 --> 00:01:05.079 conversations are there to help you with the most difficult 19 00:01:05.079 --> 00:01:07.879 fantasy situations you're going to face in your drafts this summer. 20 00:01:08.680 --> 00:01:11.400 Let's not delay. Let's get right to this week's guest 21 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:15.239 on another installment of Discussions with Drew. 22 00:01:17.040 --> 00:01:20.519 Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the 23 00:01:20.560 --> 00:01:22.480 brightest minds in the fantasy industry. 24 00:01:24.000 --> 00:01:26.719 Welcome into this week's discussions with Drew. Our guest for 25 00:01:26.799 --> 00:01:30.200 you this week is John Dagel from Established the Run, 26 00:01:30.719 --> 00:01:33.480 and of course wanted to make sure and mentioned Emmy 27 00:01:33.519 --> 00:01:39.879 Award winner FSWA Award winner. This guy is always here 28 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:43.439 to bring us not only good fantasy football information, but 29 00:01:43.519 --> 00:01:46.480 plenty of energy. Happens to be one of my good 30 00:01:46.480 --> 00:01:48.359 friends too, that I got to play little cards with 31 00:01:48.680 --> 00:01:51.760 last weekend. So welcome to the show, John, Thank you 32 00:01:51.840 --> 00:01:53.319 so much for making the time for us. 33 00:01:53.799 --> 00:01:56.840 Funny you say energy, because that's how I actually sign 34 00:01:56.920 --> 00:02:00.519 off all my professional emails as well. I started doing 35 00:02:00.560 --> 00:02:02.920 it in college because it caught everyone's attention, but it 36 00:02:02.959 --> 00:02:07.359 also fits my personality to be energetically Comma, John Dagel. 37 00:02:07.719 --> 00:02:10.360 Yeah, I agree with that, and every time I've had 38 00:02:10.400 --> 00:02:13.080 you on, you do bring the energy and of course 39 00:02:13.960 --> 00:02:17.360 excellent fantasy takes as well. So you happened to have 40 00:02:17.400 --> 00:02:20.680 the honor of running the anchor leg for the auction 41 00:02:20.759 --> 00:02:23.479 brief this summer. You are the final guests that we're 42 00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.840 on for the summer, so hey, no pressure, I know 43 00:02:26.919 --> 00:02:31.360 you can bring it, but yeah, so I when I 44 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:33.560 saw you this past weekend. Of course, we never get 45 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.240 enough time to hang out together. But we did spend 46 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:39.520 quite a bit of time at a small stakes cash 47 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:43.000 game together. That was a lot of fun. But boy, 48 00:02:43.080 --> 00:02:45.159 was at a mess, wasn't it. 49 00:02:45.639 --> 00:02:48.240 You Let me tell everyone quickly though, how good of 50 00:02:48.280 --> 00:02:51.520 a person you are to your friends, because it was 51 00:02:51.560 --> 00:02:53.520 the kind of game where if you really wanted to 52 00:02:53.599 --> 00:02:58.919 run it, you could. But given the circumstances of some 53 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:02.520 people around us, sometimes they had a little more confidence 54 00:03:02.560 --> 00:03:04.639 than they'd usually have, and they would go in to 55 00:03:04.759 --> 00:03:06.919 reraise you, and you would be such a good friend. 56 00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:09.840 You would literally push their chips back to them and say, 57 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:12.520 just call, because you knew you beat them, and you 58 00:03:12.599 --> 00:03:15.439 knew the plane they are on at three in the morning. 59 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:17.800 So yes, I want to give I want to tip 60 00:03:17.800 --> 00:03:19.840 my hat to you, because you were the one who 61 00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:21.520 was really helping everyone out. 62 00:03:22.360 --> 00:03:24.840 I think, I said. I remember one particular pot where 63 00:03:24.879 --> 00:03:26.840 I just kept saying, just call, man, just call. 64 00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:30.240 I'm not gonna say the person, but I remember also 65 00:03:30.240 --> 00:03:32.400 seeing the hamsterbill in his head, and you said, Nope, 66 00:03:32.520 --> 00:03:32.840 just call. 67 00:03:33.120 --> 00:03:34.879 Don't don't do what you're thinking right now. 68 00:03:36.840 --> 00:03:38.879 I remember that, and it's so funny that you say 69 00:03:38.919 --> 00:03:42.000 that now, because I until you said that, I didn't remember, 70 00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:43.599 and I think I did it a couple of times. 71 00:03:43.599 --> 00:03:46.520 But yeah, that was I mean it was fun. And look, 72 00:03:46.560 --> 00:03:48.800 I had already made some money and we're The goal 73 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:51.479 was not to go in there and fleece everybody who'd 74 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:52.879 had a few too many to drink. It was just 75 00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.319 have a good time. So and I had a blast. 76 00:03:55.919 --> 00:03:58.840 I felt a little bit bad that the whole crew 77 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:00.879 wasn't at one table, but hey, you know it is 78 00:04:00.919 --> 00:04:04.120 a busy is a busy card game there, so. 79 00:04:04.039 --> 00:04:06.080 The whole cruise in one garage. That's what matters. 80 00:04:06.159 --> 00:04:09.000 We were all within distance to pat each other on 81 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:11.120 the back and yell at each other, and you know, 82 00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:14.199 make sure if there's a beer run, grab that for 83 00:04:14.240 --> 00:04:14.879 the other person. 84 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:15.639 So it was good. 85 00:04:16.439 --> 00:04:22.600 The bush Light, Apple boil per Ian hard It's yeah, 86 00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:25.079 great table, great, that was a lot of fun. That 87 00:04:25.160 --> 00:04:26.720 was a lot of fun. I can't wait till next 88 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:29.839 year already. But well, hey, we're in the thick of 89 00:04:29.879 --> 00:04:35.519 it now in NFL training camps and preseason and I 90 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:38.480 can't even believe real football is on the TV. So 91 00:04:38.720 --> 00:04:42.560 let's talk about some of this stuff. And last week's show, 92 00:04:42.600 --> 00:04:45.040 I did a little bit of a training camp hype 93 00:04:45.160 --> 00:04:47.959 talk with our prior guests, but today I just want 94 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:50.600 to hit some sticky situations with you because I always 95 00:04:51.079 --> 00:04:54.360 respect your takes on things like this. So I'm going 96 00:04:54.399 --> 00:04:58.720 to hit some stuff that, frankly is stuff I'm wondering about. 97 00:04:59.240 --> 00:05:01.959 And the one thing that I saw yesterday on Twitter 98 00:05:02.519 --> 00:05:04.959 and I tweeted out, this is going to change Jaden 99 00:05:05.000 --> 00:05:08.480 Reid's ADP by about three rounds. But somebody tweeted out 100 00:05:08.519 --> 00:05:11.879 that Jaden Reid is going to be the guy that's 101 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:14.680 playing in two wide receiver sets, and I thought, boy, okay, 102 00:05:15.519 --> 00:05:18.639 if we had all suspected this or thought this through 103 00:05:18.680 --> 00:05:22.079 the whole offseason, I think Reid's price would be completely 104 00:05:22.120 --> 00:05:25.240 different today. Same with Matthew Golden, although his price has 105 00:05:25.319 --> 00:05:27.680 just never really been that high. What do you think 106 00:05:27.720 --> 00:05:29.959 is going on in Green Bay with two wide receiver sets? 107 00:05:29.959 --> 00:05:31.839 Do you buy this that we're going to see more 108 00:05:31.920 --> 00:05:33.160 Jayden Reid this year on the field? 109 00:05:33.839 --> 00:05:37.759 I do buy it, if only because we did lose 110 00:05:37.839 --> 00:05:41.720 both Romeo Dubs and Dontavian Wicks, who are not only 111 00:05:41.959 --> 00:05:45.160 target earners but also route eaters, and that's kind of 112 00:05:45.160 --> 00:05:47.959 been the problem for Jaden Reid. Just six routes from 113 00:05:47.959 --> 00:05:50.800 two wide receiver sets the last two years literally can't 114 00:05:50.839 --> 00:05:53.759 get on the field whenever the Packers have two or 115 00:05:53.800 --> 00:05:57.360 fewer wide receivers in their personnel. But now it is 116 00:05:57.639 --> 00:06:02.800 simply and strictly a three man rotation between Christian Watson, 117 00:06:03.120 --> 00:06:06.560 Jaden Reed, and Matthew Golden. One of my most i'll 118 00:06:06.600 --> 00:06:09.360 say polarizing, the best tweets, by the way, I don't 119 00:06:09.360 --> 00:06:10.680 know if you know this, but the most viral, The 120 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:12.519 best tweets are when you don't even have an opinion, 121 00:06:12.720 --> 00:06:15.040 literally just put the facts out there, the data, and 122 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:17.319 they kind of speak for themselves. And I put out 123 00:06:17.360 --> 00:06:19.040 the tweet last year that, like going all the way 124 00:06:19.040 --> 00:06:21.879 back to high school, I showed Matthew Golden's target shares 125 00:06:22.120 --> 00:06:24.519 and he had never reached seventeen percent in any season. 126 00:06:24.560 --> 00:06:25.720 He just can't earn targets. 127 00:06:25.959 --> 00:06:29.720 But last year that was a sixth seventh round cost right, 128 00:06:29.759 --> 00:06:31.560 so he was just an easy player of fade. He 129 00:06:31.639 --> 00:06:34.839 obviously failed to earn targets unsurprisingly as a rookie with 130 00:06:34.879 --> 00:06:37.439 the Packers, got drafted in the first round solely because 131 00:06:37.480 --> 00:06:40.079 of his forty times, which happens a lot unfortunately, and 132 00:06:40.079 --> 00:06:42.560 then it takes a few years to develop. But this year, 133 00:06:42.920 --> 00:06:45.519 because we don't hate players, we hate ADP, this year 134 00:06:45.560 --> 00:06:49.199 Golden's going much further despite having less competition. 135 00:06:49.560 --> 00:06:50.720 Maybe he still can't. 136 00:06:50.519 --> 00:06:52.759 Earn targets as a sophomore, but the fact is he 137 00:06:52.839 --> 00:06:56.720 will logically get more opportunity because there's less competition. So 138 00:06:56.800 --> 00:06:59.000 I kind of want to gobble all these players up, 139 00:06:59.079 --> 00:07:02.439 quite honestly. Christian Watson, out of all players wide receivers 140 00:07:02.480 --> 00:07:04.720 tight ends the board, finished fifth and yards per rout 141 00:07:04.800 --> 00:07:08.199 run when he was healthy, and last year set career 142 00:07:08.279 --> 00:07:10.120 highs and yards per route run. 143 00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:11.600 And targets per route run. 144 00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:13.600 So on a per route basis, when he's on the field, 145 00:07:13.839 --> 00:07:16.720 all he does is earn targets. And we're talking about 146 00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:20.519 that kind of profile being drafted around DJ Moore and 147 00:07:20.560 --> 00:07:23.160 Carnell Tape for example, when I'm gonna make the Christian 148 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:26.040 Watson Betton home leagues ten out of ten times. So 149 00:07:26.120 --> 00:07:28.920 Watson's been a target for me in that range, especially 150 00:07:28.920 --> 00:07:31.639 since we lost Ricky Piersall for example, who I also 151 00:07:31.720 --> 00:07:35.199 wanted to take pieces of. Then for Jayden Reid, like 152 00:07:35.240 --> 00:07:37.439 I said, all it's ever been is can you get 153 00:07:37.480 --> 00:07:39.279 on the field, can you play in three wide receiver 154 00:07:39.360 --> 00:07:41.759 sets because when he's allowed to, we know he can. 155 00:07:42.120 --> 00:07:44.399 For example, when he was on the field last year 156 00:07:44.399 --> 00:07:47.000 with Jordan Love, it was only seventy five routes, right 157 00:07:47.079 --> 00:07:49.519 because there were just so many times where Jordan Love 158 00:07:49.600 --> 00:07:53.519 was on and they instead only used Watson, dubs and Golden. 159 00:07:53.920 --> 00:07:55.120 But seventy five. 160 00:07:54.959 --> 00:07:58.000 Plays last year with Jordan Love and Reid led the 161 00:07:58.000 --> 00:08:00.439 team with a twenty three percent target share. This is 162 00:08:00.439 --> 00:08:01.879 just the kind of player I want to bet on 163 00:08:02.079 --> 00:08:06.240 again in his range, given the other dead zone. It's 164 00:08:06.240 --> 00:08:08.079 not the dead zone, but given the running backs that 165 00:08:08.120 --> 00:08:10.399 are being taken there mid round tight ends, which we 166 00:08:10.439 --> 00:08:12.720 know are not a good bet historically, I want to 167 00:08:12.759 --> 00:08:15.879 take Jayden Reid and again since Matthew Golden Ulto falls, 168 00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:17.519 I just want all these guys right now. 169 00:08:18.439 --> 00:08:21.279 Yeah, I mean, I've been surprised that Golden's ADP hasn't 170 00:08:21.319 --> 00:08:26.360 been higher, even like seeing them trim their wide receiver 171 00:08:26.439 --> 00:08:30.639 treat and then see Matthew Golden languishing there despite everyone's 172 00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:33.600 optimism last year. It's been a little bit odd to me. 173 00:08:33.759 --> 00:08:38.039 But gosh, this Jaden Reid stuff. I have always been 174 00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:41.480 a read guy. The fact that we're hearing this news 175 00:08:41.600 --> 00:08:45.480 right now, I haven't really taken very many shots on them, 176 00:08:45.559 --> 00:08:48.879 and now I'm upset about that because I'm thinking that 177 00:08:48.919 --> 00:08:51.120 it's going to be a mistake that I've made to 178 00:08:51.159 --> 00:08:54.639 this point. But hopefully we can rectify that. So but hey, 179 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:56.639 by the way, I love the point you made about 180 00:08:56.679 --> 00:09:00.840 Golden and his target share. He's just never been a 181 00:09:00.879 --> 00:09:04.240 high target earner and that just gives me pause. It 182 00:09:04.240 --> 00:09:07.559 makes me think, what is it that he does that 183 00:09:07.639 --> 00:09:12.120 makes him somebody that never can earn a twenty percent 184 00:09:12.240 --> 00:09:15.000 target share? I don't do we have any insight into 185 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:15.759 why that is. 186 00:09:16.519 --> 00:09:20.519 No, it's perhaps the route tree he had at Texas. 187 00:09:20.879 --> 00:09:21.919 It could be a lot of things. 188 00:09:21.919 --> 00:09:23.639 But we see this from a lot of players, and 189 00:09:23.919 --> 00:09:27.679 again Taekwon Thornton's one that comes to mind. Other individuals 190 00:09:27.679 --> 00:09:30.639 that just run fast forties in their draft capital is 191 00:09:30.720 --> 00:09:34.000 not dictative of the kind of player they are, which 192 00:09:34.039 --> 00:09:37.480 we're always more skeptical about wide receivers than running backs. 193 00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:42.360 Since the last decade, actually draft capital has decided has 194 00:09:42.399 --> 00:09:46.120 been thirty three percent of a running backs fantasy points 195 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:49.159 in year one. Basically, just going early tells you like 196 00:09:49.200 --> 00:09:51.080 a third of the time this player's probably going to 197 00:09:51.159 --> 00:09:52.320 hit and then we can just. 198 00:09:52.759 --> 00:09:55.440 Base how we draft them on adplan. It's kind of 199 00:09:55.480 --> 00:09:56.039 the argument too. 200 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:59.159 It's not the same thing, but Dayson Stribbling is like 201 00:09:59.200 --> 00:10:01.320 the trend right now. He's the hot news because he 202 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:03.919 was the first player taken on Day two, number thirty 203 00:10:03.919 --> 00:10:06.720 three overall pick. The runway is kind of being clear 204 00:10:06.759 --> 00:10:09.559 of Ricky Pearsall now officially out for the season. Christian 205 00:10:09.639 --> 00:10:12.639 Kirk also dealing with an injury, but days On Stribbling 206 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:16.320 and his loan his only in final year in the SEC. 207 00:10:16.399 --> 00:10:19.279 Last season just a fourteen point nine percent target share. 208 00:10:20.000 --> 00:10:22.840 Having said that, it is a different offense that Kyle 209 00:10:22.919 --> 00:10:27.240 Shanahan really elevates players. I believe Juwan, Jennings, piersall these 210 00:10:27.240 --> 00:10:29.879 guys are very talented, but I also believe Kyle Shanahan 211 00:10:29.960 --> 00:10:32.960 runs them open despite their talent and just makes them better. 212 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:36.840 Whereas like Matthew Golden, it's not that in the Packers offense. 213 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:39.440 Even his loan play in the playoffs against the Bears, 214 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:41.679 it was a screen, right, they just got in the ball. 215 00:10:41.799 --> 00:10:43.759 They could have done that throughout the season that probably 216 00:10:43.759 --> 00:10:46.840 would have helped him. So I still like Stribbling, who 217 00:10:46.919 --> 00:10:49.639 goes much later to given the path, but he's not 218 00:10:49.679 --> 00:10:51.519 going to be asked to earn targets the same way 219 00:10:51.559 --> 00:10:52.960 as Golden was as a rookie. 220 00:10:53.320 --> 00:10:56.559 Well, I always enjoy having you on for exactly this reason. 221 00:10:56.600 --> 00:11:00.480 This conversation about the packers is fascinating to me. Let's 222 00:11:00.519 --> 00:11:04.320 hit another topic that it's fascinating in that I'm not 223 00:11:04.440 --> 00:11:07.440 seeing as much discussion about this as I thought I would. 224 00:11:07.759 --> 00:11:09.440 I kind of feel like I'm shouting into the wind 225 00:11:09.440 --> 00:11:12.720 a little bit about Quinn Shawn Judkins and Cam Scattaboo 226 00:11:12.879 --> 00:11:16.639 because they both suffered fairly devastating leg injuries last year. 227 00:11:16.879 --> 00:11:19.919 I think we can probably agree that Scataboo's was a 228 00:11:19.960 --> 00:11:24.159 degree worse than Judkins. Am I crazy to think that 229 00:11:24.240 --> 00:11:26.960 we need to have more caution about these guys and 230 00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:29.720 their leg injuries and how they're going to perform in 231 00:11:29.879 --> 00:11:33.600 year end plus one after suffering the injury? Although I 232 00:11:33.639 --> 00:11:36.639 will say that I'm not seeing an ADP that I 233 00:11:36.679 --> 00:11:40.320 thought I could see, because there are some people out 234 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:44.759 there who obviously have reservations keeping their ADP depressed a 235 00:11:44.799 --> 00:11:47.240 little bit. What do you think about the injury and 236 00:11:47.279 --> 00:11:48.639 where they're being priced right now? 237 00:11:48.679 --> 00:11:54.240 Is it fair It's a hard conversation because we don't 238 00:11:54.279 --> 00:11:58.679 know the extent of medical updates in the past couple 239 00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:03.799 of years. Because historically we've bet on the player who 240 00:12:03.879 --> 00:12:06.080 will come back from injury and then help us in 241 00:12:06.120 --> 00:12:08.200 the second half of the season. But that's not the 242 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:10.559 case because there's usually a slow ramp up time and 243 00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:14.039 really just inefficiency. Ryan Heath oer at fantasy points. I've 244 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:15.679 mentioned them on so many shows I've been on this 245 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:19.559 offseason because he's doing incredible work. But even he had 246 00:12:19.600 --> 00:12:23.679 mentioned that the foremost recent players to return from fibula fractures, 247 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:27.159 which includes Kim Scataboo and Quinchawn Jenkins this year, they've 248 00:12:27.200 --> 00:12:30.559 averaged six point seven fewer fantasy points per game when 249 00:12:30.559 --> 00:12:33.279 they return that season. So that's kind of the outlook 250 00:12:33.360 --> 00:12:37.840 I have. Having said that, given what both Judkins and 251 00:12:37.879 --> 00:12:41.120 Scataboo showed us last season, I do think their ADPs 252 00:12:41.159 --> 00:12:43.720 are not good but fair. You mentioned that word, and 253 00:12:43.759 --> 00:12:45.960 I'm glad you used it because there can be gray 254 00:12:46.039 --> 00:12:46.799 in this conversation. 255 00:12:46.840 --> 00:12:48.279 It doesn't have to be black and white. 256 00:12:48.519 --> 00:12:51.720 When when they fall at their current ADPs, I don't 257 00:12:51.720 --> 00:12:53.480 mind taking them as long. 258 00:12:53.320 --> 00:12:55.519 As the Great Wall of Wide receivers. 259 00:12:55.039 --> 00:12:57.679 As I'm dubbing it is still not there because I 260 00:12:57.720 --> 00:13:01.600 do want to leave the second or third to sixth 261 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:05.159 and seventh round with three to four wide receivers, because 262 00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:08.039 that entire group all the way from you know, Luther 263 00:13:08.159 --> 00:13:12.320 Burden to when it starts at DeVonta Smith, there's eleven 264 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:14.919 guys there. Christian Watson and I already talked about that 265 00:13:15.000 --> 00:13:18.320 I really want, and so I made Nitpick juckets in 266 00:13:18.360 --> 00:13:21.039 Skataboo around them. Skataboo was a top six back who 267 00:13:21.159 --> 00:13:23.240 led his team in touches, showed a high target sharre 268 00:13:23.240 --> 00:13:24.600 in yards per route run as a. 269 00:13:24.559 --> 00:13:26.440 Receiver as well whenever he was healthy. 270 00:13:26.799 --> 00:13:29.279 J Justkins we saw even Todd Munkin has said this 271 00:13:29.320 --> 00:13:31.960 offseason can be a three down back within this offense. 272 00:13:32.279 --> 00:13:35.639 We're really questioning the quarterback play there because I trust Monkin, 273 00:13:35.840 --> 00:13:37.639 I trust the pace and the ball you were going 274 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:40.480 to get. I'm just not sure of the inefficiency of 275 00:13:40.519 --> 00:13:43.200 the targets that are going to happen similar to a 276 00:13:43.240 --> 00:13:46.600 Bryce Young lead offense and really dampen the ceiling. 277 00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:47.039 Of everyone here. 278 00:13:47.440 --> 00:13:50.600 But at the right adp yes, I'm still comfortable with 279 00:13:50.639 --> 00:13:53.519 Skataboo and Junkins and just crossing my fingers that I 280 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:56.960 do not understand the advancements of medicals just yet. 281 00:13:57.840 --> 00:14:00.960 Yeah, completely fair, And I love that that we don't 282 00:14:00.960 --> 00:14:04.039 have enough gray in our conversation sometimes. So I really 283 00:14:04.120 --> 00:14:07.000 like that because the people, at least I know that 284 00:14:07.080 --> 00:14:10.279 listen to my show, They're not looking for declarative statements 285 00:14:10.279 --> 00:14:13.200 and the conversation is what they're looking for. So I 286 00:14:13.240 --> 00:14:15.919 appreciate that, and it gives me some good perspective on 287 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:18.519 those two guys, because I really have had trouble pulling 288 00:14:18.519 --> 00:14:21.120 the trigger on either one of them, and I think, 289 00:14:21.159 --> 00:14:24.759 as you allude to, the ADPs are fair and because 290 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:26.840 of that, I look at them like, Okay, that's fine, 291 00:14:26.840 --> 00:14:28.759 but I'd rather have X, Y or Z when it 292 00:14:28.799 --> 00:14:32.360 gets to that point. So okay, let's move the focus 293 00:14:32.399 --> 00:14:36.200 down to New Orleans. And another conversation that I'm a 294 00:14:36.200 --> 00:14:39.960 little surprised we're not having more of right now is 295 00:14:40.240 --> 00:14:44.679 what the effect of Alvin Kamara hanging around in New 296 00:14:44.720 --> 00:14:47.600 Orleans is going to have on Travis etn. You know, 297 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:50.480 he started out the off season as somebody that I 298 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:53.639 was pretty excited about the landing spot, and they obviously 299 00:14:53.679 --> 00:14:56.399 made it a priority to go down or to go 300 00:14:56.440 --> 00:15:00.320 to Jacksonville and grab him. But Camara's hanging around. We 301 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:03.240 know he's good catching the ball. Should we be more 302 00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:07.840 concerned about Kamara nerfing Etn's upside in the receiving game. 303 00:15:08.600 --> 00:15:11.919 It's a tough conversation because on one hand, I do 304 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:15.159 think Etn is in a great situation. The Saints aren't 305 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:17.960 offense in general that I'm betting on. We already saw 306 00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:22.320 Kellen Moore in year one second in the league in pace, 307 00:15:22.720 --> 00:15:26.159 first in time between snaps, So we're going to get 308 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:28.679 that volume. And that was with an offense that with 309 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:32.080 Tyler Schuck. Think about after they traded Rashid Shaheed. He's 310 00:15:32.120 --> 00:15:36.000 simply staring around at chris A lav de bond Vailey 311 00:15:36.080 --> 00:15:40.440 for a time and Juwan Johnson at the last month 312 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:43.559 of the season, we're rotating because Alvin Kamara was already injured, 313 00:15:43.879 --> 00:15:47.720 Devin Neil and Odrick Estimate. Now you look around at 314 00:15:47.759 --> 00:15:50.600 everything here and we're talking about Jordan Tyson, who led 315 00:15:50.639 --> 00:15:53.200 this class and being targeted on thirty one percent of 316 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:56.639 his routes across from chrysal Lava multiple tight end sets. 317 00:15:56.639 --> 00:15:59.480 Since the auser also added some draft capital and veteran 318 00:15:59.559 --> 00:16:04.159 assistance with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp. Travis Etn now 319 00:16:04.200 --> 00:16:07.480 to play ahead of Alvin Kamaras. So already the upgrades 320 00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:10.200 when you zoom out, and remember that the Saints went 321 00:16:10.279 --> 00:16:13.000 five to one and increased to tenth in yards per 322 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:15.720 play when Tyler Schuck was under center with more with 323 00:16:15.840 --> 00:16:18.320 that worst surrounding cast, and he has this year. It's 324 00:16:18.360 --> 00:16:20.679 an offensive team I want to be high on. I 325 00:16:20.759 --> 00:16:23.639 even have bets, for whatever it's worth, on them winning 326 00:16:23.679 --> 00:16:26.879 the NFC South this season. So I like the overall 327 00:16:27.039 --> 00:16:30.200 environment and that's the case I'm making four Travis Etn 328 00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:34.960 since coaches have trusted him historically. He's handled two hundred 329 00:16:35.000 --> 00:16:38.279 ninety six plus touches and two of the last three seasons. Also, 330 00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:41.720 the Jaguars offensive line last year finished twenty fifth and 331 00:16:41.919 --> 00:16:45.080 yards before contact per carry, which means that's an offensive 332 00:16:45.080 --> 00:16:48.000 line stat every time Basil Tooton and Travis et And 333 00:16:48.039 --> 00:16:50.240 touched the ball, they basically got wrecked behind the line 334 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:50.799 of scrimmage. 335 00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:52.559 I'm expecting much better. 336 00:16:52.440 --> 00:16:55.960 Than that, especially since Brandon thorn Over at established the run, 337 00:16:56.200 --> 00:16:59.399 does all this deep offensive line work, and he ranked 338 00:16:59.399 --> 00:17:01.559 their line this year or fifth overall, So I am 339 00:17:01.639 --> 00:17:05.559 excited for ETN. Now I said it was a tough conversation. 340 00:17:05.839 --> 00:17:09.599 So let me also say the way I'm drafting does 341 00:17:09.680 --> 00:17:13.039 not lend itself unfortunately a lot of the time to 342 00:17:13.559 --> 00:17:17.400 Javonte Williams, Kira Williams, Travis Etn, that group of players 343 00:17:17.480 --> 00:17:21.200 Josh Jacobs included. And that's just because of the structure 344 00:17:21.400 --> 00:17:23.720 of how drafting has worked. The last couple of years, 345 00:17:24.119 --> 00:17:26.559 running backs have stayed healthy, right, so it's unsurprising to 346 00:17:26.680 --> 00:17:29.839 learn that the top twelve running backs in points per 347 00:17:29.920 --> 00:17:33.880 game the last two seasons, only one Javonte Williams last 348 00:17:33.960 --> 00:17:36.680 year in the eighth round. Only one has been drafted 349 00:17:36.720 --> 00:17:39.920 outside the top three rounds. So ADP has been pretty 350 00:17:39.960 --> 00:17:42.079 correct the last couple of seasons on the top twelve 351 00:17:42.160 --> 00:17:42.799 running backs. 352 00:17:43.279 --> 00:17:45.039 But the dead zone the. 353 00:17:45.160 --> 00:17:49.119 RB thirteen through twenty four, so RB two we start weekly. 354 00:17:50.079 --> 00:17:53.279 They have actually averaged a sixth round ADP the last 355 00:17:53.359 --> 00:17:56.200 two seasons. And that's simply saying it's not like a 356 00:17:56.960 --> 00:17:59.640 player take on Travis et and Javonte william Kyle Williams, 357 00:17:59.640 --> 00:18:03.160 the list go on. It's about telling ourselves and showing 358 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:05.759 the data that we can match their hit rates where 359 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:08.960 they're being drafted with running backs from the sixth round 360 00:18:09.119 --> 00:18:11.720 on this year, like those targets for me include like 361 00:18:11.799 --> 00:18:14.920 David Montgomery, Jalen Warren, Jonathan Brooks. That's an entirely different 362 00:18:14.920 --> 00:18:18.000 player discussion, but I'm betting I can match Travis Eten's 363 00:18:18.079 --> 00:18:21.079 hit rate later on, and I'm instead looking at elite 364 00:18:21.079 --> 00:18:23.079 tight end like Brock Bowers in the second round over 365 00:18:23.160 --> 00:18:25.400 that group of guys in home leagues where running backs 366 00:18:25.400 --> 00:18:28.200 are going to go much higher. Typically, I'm looking at 367 00:18:28.240 --> 00:18:30.039 that great wall of wide receivers I talked about and 368 00:18:30.079 --> 00:18:31.839 coming away with three or four of them. I'm staring 369 00:18:31.880 --> 00:18:34.240 at Jalen Hurts in the same round as Chubabber. These 370 00:18:34.279 --> 00:18:36.799 are just bets I would much rather make than that 371 00:18:36.920 --> 00:18:39.720 group of running backs. Thus, the long winded way to 372 00:18:39.759 --> 00:18:43.079 answer your question is, Unfortunately, although I like Eten's outlook, 373 00:18:43.279 --> 00:18:45.000 I'm probably just not going to have much of him. 374 00:18:46.079 --> 00:18:49.400 Yeah, and That's where I've been finding myself is Initially 375 00:18:49.440 --> 00:18:53.039 I was pretty excited, but then it's tempered a little bit, 376 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:56.920 and RB eighteen doesn't feel crazy, but I just don't 377 00:18:56.960 --> 00:18:58.960 find myself clicking the button there very often. 378 00:18:59.480 --> 00:19:01.880 I sat down with our friend jaj Zacharies on his show, 379 00:19:01.960 --> 00:19:04.519 and like Javonti Williams right last year was the RB 380 00:19:04.680 --> 00:19:07.400 twelve and points per game, but he was drafting the 381 00:19:07.440 --> 00:19:09.599 eighth round. That's kind of like what we're telling ourselves 382 00:19:09.640 --> 00:19:11.400 with Jalen Warren and Jonathan Brooks this year. 383 00:19:11.640 --> 00:19:13.599 Whereas if you draft the. 384 00:19:13.720 --> 00:19:16.200 RB twelve and points per game in the third round 385 00:19:16.279 --> 00:19:19.720 this year, that's like touching yourself and telling your friends 386 00:19:19.759 --> 00:19:22.240 you had sex, like it doesn't matter, Like you're not 387 00:19:22.359 --> 00:19:26.200 doing anything at all. And so the point is you 388 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:28.519 are not winning if you draft the RB twelve as 389 00:19:28.559 --> 00:19:29.359 the RB twelve, that. 390 00:19:29.480 --> 00:19:32.279 Is not how you win Fantasy football. Rats on your floor. 391 00:19:32.680 --> 00:19:36.240 But what if a Mecca Buca outscores Jackson with and Jigba, 392 00:19:36.400 --> 00:19:38.480 which is in his range of outcomes, Like we kind 393 00:19:38.480 --> 00:19:40.559 of saw that right within the first six weeks whenever 394 00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:43.920 the Bucks were healthy, Lad mcconkee getting Mike McDaniels. Those 395 00:19:43.960 --> 00:19:45.279 are the kind of bets I kind of want to 396 00:19:45.319 --> 00:19:48.440 make and instead saying Javonta Williams, I will match you 397 00:19:48.519 --> 00:19:50.279 because I back and find that hit rate later on. 398 00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:53.960 Yeah, and congrats on all the sacks too, So yeah, 399 00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:58.359 I'm gonna clip that one. I'm gonna this is what 400 00:19:58.440 --> 00:20:02.279 it's like around the poker table, by the way, folk, Yeah, 401 00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:04.480