Speaker 1: Welcome to the prop line Thanksgiving and Black Friday Audition,
the only show we're two thirds of the host celebrate
Thanksgiving and probably even know what Black Friday is? Corbyn,
can you imagine a Friday after.
Speaker 2: We have Black Friday in the hen now?
Speaker 1: Is it is? It is a nightmare?
Speaker 3: Chaos is Like I it's always viral videos. Back in school,
we used to load up like the news page for
Black Friday during like it and used to just sit
there and it's like woman like attacks full for like.
Speaker 4: Okay, so.
Speaker 1: You're in the holiday spirit. Okay, it's always watch I
did it once just to say I've done it and
I've had better ideas in my life. We'll just leave it.
Speaker 2: What did you come away with? What did you manage
to get?
Speaker 1: Oh? I got I got a lot of gifts. But
when I say a lot of gifts, it took me
like like twelve hours to get like six of them.
Like it was like, I'm glad I did it, but
it was like going to the Ryder Cup bucket list.
Glad I did it, couldn't pay me to do it again.
So all right, well let's get into it. So guys,
here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna break down the
Thursday and the Friday game. We do not have enough
props out officially for the Sunday game, so we'll have
to do that in a separate video. So we're just
gonna concentrate on these games. We do have best bets
that are up. We'll tell you about those so that
we can get cashing on Thanksgiving. I'm just telling you, guys,
cashing on props on Thanksgiving just hits just a little
bit different. There's something pretty cool when you hit a
prop on Thanksgiving and you just you're like, you know what,
I'm gonna go celebrate by getting another sandwich. All right,
Jim knows the.
Speaker 4: Stuff. And if you lose, you go get another save.
That's the best part.
Speaker 1: All right. We're gonna start with the Packers and the Lions.
Corbyn coming to you first. Any props that you like
in this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have two, one more stronger than the other.
I start with the weaker of the two, Jimmed Gibbs
over seventeen and a half longest rushing. We've discussed his
stats before, but it's really weird. It's like every other
week he just has an amazing game and then comes
flying back down to earth. I picked his longest because
I feel like that's one he can get, even if
they have to struggle that week I've mentioned I think
the Packers rush defenses falling backwards basically, and they only
gave up I think it was ninety three yards at
the at the weekend. But the things I saw that
they still the rush defense is slowly reverting back to
how it was, so I quite liked Jimmy Gibbs at
home with the speedy has to get a long run.
Speaker 2: Sorry here my only other Corbyn.
Speaker 1: I don't mean interrupt, but just to her on your point.
Look at his just rushing yards the last six weeks. Yeah, like,
explain this sixty five one, thirty six, twenty five, thirty nine,
two nineteen.
Speaker 2: It's it's pappling.
Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense. So good luck figuring this
one out, all right, what's your next problem?
Speaker 2: Exactly? The other one is field goals.
Speaker 3: Actually I love the over field goals in this game,
but particularly the Packers side of the ball.
Speaker 2: Six of a.
Speaker 3: McManus has gone over one and a half field goals.
Who the Packers have had a couple of kickers this
year and they've all basically been going over this total.
We've had some red zone issues. I think Jacobs will
be back. I think for this game he was dealing
with an injury. Love, we mentioned it. He's been a
bit flustered. I'm not the biggest Love supporter. I think
we're gonna have some red zone issues and kick a
couple of field goals.
Speaker 5: So that's where I'm looking Jim Well, I'll go David
Montgomery anytime touchdown. Gibbs coming off the absolute monster game.
They're not silly over there. They know that they have
to alternate. And maybe that's the explanation on the Gibbs
workload is you know you have a big week.
Speaker 4: Okay, we're gonna run the other guy the next following week.
Speaker 5: I mean you can go back and even look and
see if it's good defense, it is bad defense. It
doesn't make sense that way either. So I would be
looking at Montgomery to score. He's gone three games without it.
He's due David Montgomery anytime touchdown with the Lions at
home just sounds right on Thanksgiving, and so does aman Ross.
Saint Brown at home on Thanksgiving. If we look at
Saint Brown splits home and away. He is much better
as far as scoring at home than he is away.
We got him back on the board this week. He
had the week off, so we'll get back to him. Corbin,
curious about your opinion. Somebody's got to catch the ball.
This Lion's defense got eaten up by Jamis Winston. How
high could we go on Watson if he's the deep
threat weapon. Can Jordan Love complete a deep pass against
the Lion's defense that gave up three?
Speaker 3: There's just so many options, Like like Dobbs, I think
Wix came back last week. I think Jaden Reid might.
I've seen Read practicing. I don't know if that if
he's going to be back. That's like it is Watson
out of all of them, that I would trust the most,
But we're talking about four or five, maybe six different
guys here, Like as soon as it gets into that territory,
it's just I can't trust anyone with any kind of confidence.
But if I had to pick one, it it's probably
Watson's longest receiving again, so.
Speaker 1: I will go with I don't know what to do
with it. It's just I don't know. If you love it,
go for it. You can get it at minus four
to threey it mightus forty thirty three is playable over
one and a half. Passing touchdowns for Jared Goff, can
I submit to you that since he's been with the Lions,
he's thrown for two in every home game against Green Bay.
This is just home games, four out of five this year.
And you know you look at away games, you know,
three for three, So home games Jared Goff to throw
a touchdown or throw two touchdowns at Minas won forty
three at DraftKings probably playable up to minus one fifty.
Anything after that you might win a parlay it with something.
I don't know. Sometimes we hum in hall about the
lines on these props and then they end up just
hitting game after game after games. So home against Packers,
Jared Goff passing touchdowns. All right, we'll move on to
the Chiefs. And how about them Cowboys?
Speaker 2: Cowboys say it? Yehaw?
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Jim. You're not a believer
of the Dallas defense. No, A few good quarters against
Philly down that vaunted Raiders offense. What do you think
here about this game?
Speaker 5: I don't think the two guys could transform a defense. Look,
they're coming off the big win. Philly does what Philly does.
They just keep things close and it bites them when
it can they can't. You know, it was a pretty
nette passing day and Jalen Hurts still for two touchdowns
against this Dallas defense. And the takeaway after the game
was just how bad at quarterback Jalen Hurts is. Yet
he throws.
Speaker 4: For two touchdowns. So I think you just go back
to it. Now the books have caught on.
Speaker 5: Obviously we're sitting at a two and a half on
Patrick Mahomes, but I think you have to do something
with Mahomes.
Speaker 4: Over one and a half.
Speaker 5: I'm a little terrified that this becomes the Siev run
defense of the Cowboys, and we can look at Kareem Hunt.
But it's the spotlight and I'll take a page out
of Korbyn's book here, greedy Patrick Mahomes on Thanksgiving once
to be the star and he always is the star.
It just I was dying and was about halftime in
the Colts game. Watch him with someone.
Speaker 4: They go, this is it.
Speaker 5: This is the end of the Chiefs. Everyone keeps watching it,
but I got a feeling we're gonna see this team.
We're gonna see them hitting their stride when they need to.
I expect them to pull this one off. I'd be
looking at a turnover for Dak. I believe they're gonna
be down, They're gonna be tossing. We did get that
home already last week. So but they don't know where
to go with the rest of the props. I know
you guys have some opinions on some players, but I'll
be looking at the passing game of Mahones to exploit
the Cowboys defense in some way or for him.
Speaker 1: All right, interesting, So you're pretty bullish on the Chiefs here, Corbyn.
What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Chiefs are gonna win quite easily.
I'm gonna I have three props. They kind of roll
into each other. So we're gonna startf with Mahomes over
his longest pass of thirty seven and a half yards.
I believe you just look, he's done it in five stride.
They have so many weapons. Now, if it's not Kelsey's worth,
if it's not worthy, it's rice. There's just too many
deep threats speed, particularly obviously with the last two. The
Cowboys past defense is the fourth worst. It's just awful,
which is then going to lead into I also like
Kelsey over his longest of twenty and a half four
or five. The one he went under was last week
where he had seventeen. Again, Cowboys are awful against the pass.
It's clutch. They have to win this. You know that
he's going to get the targets and receptions. Kelsey always
seems to find a way which is then going to
lead into my little parlay, which is Chief's money line
and Kelsey forty plus receiving yards. Again, I think the
Chiefs are better all over the pitch against it. I
think they win this game actually quite comfortably. It's also
a must win at this point. Every game's a miss
must win for the Chiefs. And then Kelsey forty us receiving.
I think he's done it in all bar one game
this season. It's such a low tail for Kelsey. I
really like that it's plus one hundred for that play,
So you put those two pieces together and get plus
one hundred.
Speaker 2: That's my probably my favorite one.
Speaker 1: All right. They have really upped the numbers on George
Pickens seventy five and a half. I'm still not taking
hunderds on this one. I saw they sat him out
of practice, and then they he got listed to this questionable. Yeah,
the only questions is how many yards is he going
to go over? I think he goes over this one.
He is the number one. He's not the one dropping
balls out there, He's the one making one handed catches.
So I think George Pickens, if it ain't broke, don't
fix it. And then there was another passing prop. It
may have been receptions. It was it Hollywood Brown. Yeah,
one and a half again juicy here it went under
against Indy. But I'll just go back to playing it consistently.
I know that they've got all their guys back, but
I think this game, I think this game could be
up and down the field. I think that I think
the Dallas defense is a little bit more bend, maybe
don't break, But I think there's gonna be opportunities. I
think the game is way closer than you guys think me.
Cowboys plus three and a half wow at home? Yeah yeah,
yeah yeah, Chiefs win a real close one and Dallas,
I don't know, Dallas has a ball with you know,
a chance to win, and there's a fumble or Dallas
does something stupid and clocks it on fourth down, just
something very dallasy, just like something very cowboys y on
Thanksgiving that makes everybody laugh. And then that's what leads
the headlines.
Speaker 4: So what's the Can you pull up the field goal props? Please?
Speaker 1: They are not up yet. They don't come on.
Speaker 4: CORB. But I'm sure you have an opinion on that
as well.
Speaker 1: Oh wait, they do have them here.
Speaker 4: Okay, I was.
Speaker 3: Gonna say they always won, no now what the game
is or anything, it's always one and a half.
Speaker 5: I'm playing them both. I'm just I'm playing a boat.
The Chiefs kickfield goals. They don't go for on fourth
down all the time like some of these teams. And
I think both these coaches understand that three points can
sway a game of this bad. If you're thinking close game,
we could get a lot of value in those two bets.
Speaker 4: I used that V word. Everybody have a heart attack.
Good if it's going to be a close game.
Speaker 2: In the third, Yeah, Aubrey, Aubrey's won that.
Speaker 3: At the start of the if anyone said Aubrey over
one and a half field goals, you would be like sure,
Like that's great, he's the best kicker. But the amount
of juice you've had to pay these last four games.
Speaker 4: Oh, it's been crazy.
Speaker 3: At one point this was like minus two fifty for
him to go over one and a half and he
went under. And it's still juice. You can't lay the
juice on Aubrey. The Bucker won is good. I think
he had four last week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had to look anywhere, I'd go with the.
Speaker 5: It just seems to be like a defense that could
stall them.
Speaker 1: All right, we move on to the Ravens and of
the Bengals, but real quick, we mentioned that we have
our plays up. If you want to get those plays
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page wt dot buzz slash al lock in these plays.
Let's cash on Thanksgiving. All right, interesting game here, We've
got Joe Burrow coming back and I can make the
case that Joe Burrow is the healthiest quarterback in this game,
which is just just absolutely wild. So Cormyn coming to you.
Speaker 3: For Yeah, well we all know where Corbyn's going when
there's an injury involved. A player coming back from injury
is like money to my ears. I don't care who
it is, I don't care where they are, what sport.
I'm playing their overs and I'm doing the same with
Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 3: He went under his passing yards in the two games
that he played this season. If you pull up the
last I think it's last ten games, he ended the
season with nine straight over this total, I'm pretty sure.
Same with the completions, twenty four and a half completions,
they kind of go hand in hand together. Not so
good to start the year, but you look previous head
to heads. You look last year, it all kind of
tallies up really well. Again, this line is too low.
You look at the quarterbacks that have played the Ravens
and it's like Tyrod Taylor had two hundred and twenty two,
McCarthy two forty eight, Tour two sixty one, Caleb Williams
two eighty five last two head to heads over Just
I love this player. I love Joe Burrow to go
over and if I think he's gonna make a lot
of passing, there's one problem that I am very confused about.
It's no a fan over one and a half receptions.
I played his yards last week and I think he
only had one reception for like ten eleven yards or something.
So he's gone under twice this whole year, which was
against the Lions and obviously last week against the Patriots.
But he had four in the opener with Burrow, so
the whole borough coming back, Oh, he's not gonna have
the same production. I just I don't agree with that
in the slightest. I don't understand why this isn't two
and a half. So yeah, I really liked that. Over
one and a half. All the receiving on this player
as well. It's basically the same, Jim.
Speaker 4: I love the one and a half receptions.
Speaker 5: I wish somebody you explained to me, well, all of
a sudden, Mike Kosecki was the focal point of the
entire offense last week.
Speaker 1: That's what That's what was so weird, ridiculous. Four catches
thirty five yards from Koseki. Okay, nowhere.
Speaker 5: What has Giseki done the rest of the season. He
hasn't nothing. I didn't even know he was on the team.
Speaker 3: If we think he's not gonna have the same production,
and if you could just pull that back up, so
he only just went over with four receptions, now we
can take an under when he's flown underneath this every
other game.
Speaker 1: Like, I don't know what the deal was with it.
I mean, he came back from an injury, but it
still doesn't make any sense. Why why you know it's
it's Mike Kisicki's time to eat d not Micah Sicki's time.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 5: Well, bottom line for me is that this Joe Burrow
or not, this Bengals defense is still absolutely atrocious. I
know Keith Mitchell didn't get any run, but I have
to figure that against this defense, a number like twenty
at minus one eighteen, Boy is that low?
Speaker 4: Boy? Is that low?
Speaker 5: We're talking about a draw play on third and twenty
that can get you twelve right there. You know, if
Lamar's not gonna run, they're gonna have to be a
little creative, and I think they're gonna have to give
Derek Henry a breather. The carries are the worry. If
we get a two carry performance, we're dead. If he
gets six carries, he flies over this number. Against the Bengals,
we're looking at forty yards, so we don't know what
the games script can be. I don't know if I'm
betting it beforehand, but I'll just say this number is
one of those that you can look back on after
the game and just say, Mike, I can't believe I
got him at eighteen and a half yards rushing against
the Bengals. The Bengals we're talking about here. As far
as the passing game goes for Baltimore, I have no
clue what to make of it with Lamar. I want
to play the tight ends against Cincinnati, but we don't
know which one it's gonna be. Mark Andrews dropping passes.
Isaiah likely very very very small role in the offense
last week, but somebody has to catch the ball here,
So who's gonna step up? I believe Andrews had what
one reception, so they very well could on Thanksgiving if
he gets three receptions he sets I believe the Bengals
the uh help me out here Ravens record.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Ravens.
Speaker 5: So we're looking at three receptions here to get there.
So of course they're gonna line it at three and
a half. If you feel like he goes over and
they're gonna want to do this on Thanksgiving, that's where
you go with the receptions over.
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of Mark. I mean,
look at these receiving totals.
Speaker 2: It's just under. You can look at that, girlf and go,
I'm gonna play it.
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree completely. I will go back to
one of my biggest regrets from last week, and that's
not playing the Lamar Jackson under his rushing. He comes
back against Miami and he only has fourteen he's not rushing,
goes over against Minnesota and hurts himself again, and now
he's got another injury, like he's got like two leg
injuries and now a big toe injury, and this just screams,
I'm not gonna rush. So twenty five and a half
just seems like a lot for a quarterback that absolutely
does not want to run. I'm just wondering if the
books are telling us a story with this Keaton Mitchell
and Derrick Henry thing. Derrick Henry only sixty four yards,
but they have ninety and a half. Some books have
already popped up to ninety two and a half. Could
this be just the ton of Derrick Henry so I
would look at his rush attempts as opposed to his yards.
You know, they gotta have these wins like that they're
in you know they're well, they may not be because Pittsburgh
is just free falling, and you know, Pittsburgh still My
favorite part about Pittsburgh is how they keep bringing back
Mason Rudolph and thinking he's the answer, and then it
turns out he's never the answer. And then I just
think this is a week where you could really run
Derrick Henry hard because he's got an XT's got extra
rest going into next week. So if you're gonna use
your your hammer, this would be the week to do it.
I know he had twenty one carries last week, but
he didn't have a bunch of yards. I think this
is a rushing game for Derek Henry. The fact, the
fact that the books are putting out ninety it just
touchdown price minus two hundred. I know, I know it's
it's scary because he's got to get it for like
five yards out.
Speaker 2: He doesn't.
Speaker 3: He just you know he's gonna get one. You know
he's going to score a touchdown. And that's why probably
that's why you said it earlier. We sit here and
we say minus two hundred, then it's like yucky, but
it is probably just gonna hit at which.
Speaker 2: Point just doesn't mean anything when you win.
Speaker 1: Well, it's yucky when it's first and one and they
handed to him and then it's you know, first and
goal from the four because he got tackled for a
loss of three. So I don't know. All right, we
move on to the Black Friday game. If you guys
could please hit like button, leave his comment, tell us
what your favorite prop. Tell us if you agree disagree
with any props that you've heard on the show. We'll
get the Bears traveling to Philly. Philly crowd always in
a festive mood. Corbyn, Corbyn coming to you. What are
you making this Bears Eagles game?
Speaker 3: Well, I still know one thing that the Bears still
suck and nothing ever changes. Wow, yeah, yeah, I hate
the Chicago's They're awful.
Speaker 2: We're going to.
Speaker 3: Start with Jalen Hurts not to throw an interception. I
mentioned last week how we got to keep playing it
and it hit again. And that's where the juice doesn't matter,
because if it just keeps hitting. I always like parlaying
anything over kind of my minus one sixty. I always
find a piece to put it with. I don't like
actually laying the juice. So you look, he's had one
all year. The Bears are not a great team. But
then you look and the Bears have had sixteen interceptions.
They actually lead lead the league in interception. Not sure
if that means much in this game, because it all
kind of comes down to how much Hurts froze the
ball again. He just doesn't throw the ball a time,
which means that he doesn't get that many interceptions. It's
kind of how you think they're going to attack all
the score line against the Bears. Will then go for
my second favorite prop, which is Adunza over twenty and
a half longest reception, Eagles in middle of the pack
versus the run and the pass, and doesn't really lean
either way for me in that regards eight of his
last ten, he's gone over. And you just look at
who the Eagles have played and what their wide receivers
did at I'm not going to read all these names,
because there's a hell of a lot Pickins, Turpin, Lamb
all way Over last week on all for Dallas, a
week before, Saint Brown and Williams both had huge games,
Watson for the Packers, Robinson the week before, Justin Jefferson,
Addison all Way over. These totals of just twenty and
a half Agenza is they're only real kind of deep
threat on this team. I think he could. I think
twenty and a half is way too low. I think
he could have twenty five even thirty longest reception.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I really like that play.
Speaker 1: All right, Corbyn, Let's do a completely uncorrelated parlay a
Duneesa over his longest, Caleb under his longest. We got
basically a fifteen middle window here.
Speaker 3: You have to work out what that price is on
that last year Okay, all right, so I'll go through.
Speaker 1: But yeah, he's gone under three straight games. Now he's
going into Philly. It's a long, long pass, all right.
I will go to the rushing yards. And it's not
happening for Saquon Barkley. It's just not The thing is
under seventy six and a half is Are the Bears
good at stopping the run? Absolutely not. Dallas wasn't supposed
to be that good. They got him for twenty two.
He looks slow. There's just no explosion the offense. It's
like they try to be geared around him and it's
just not happening. So I will take Saquan under seventy
six and a half. I will also go to DeAndre
Swift over his passing. He's gone under or under. He's
gone over in seven out of the last eight games.
You can do this number at twelve and a half
with one catch, just like he did last week. And
it's just a weird scenario with Swift fumbles on the
ball and then Manonguy gets most of the carries. They're
not benching DeAndre Swift. They need him. They use both
of these running backs, so they're not just casting one
out you gotta keep his confidence. But what if Manonguy
gets some more carries and DeAndre Swift moves into the
third down role. This is an Eagles team that gives
up but third most receiving yard to running backs. So
Jandre Swift I think could be a sneaky play out
of the backfield. And then I just there's something about
there's something about Caleb Williams in this over one and
a half touchdowns. It's not like he does it a lot,
but you can play this at two to one if
they're playing from behind and they can't get this running
game going with Swift and manong Guy. I know Philly's
got a really good pass defense, but two to one just,
I don't know, it feels like a really really good
price on Caleb Williams. I know he's only done it
four times, but there's I don't know, it's a gut
that's more of a gut feeling than anything. I was
just look at that going that plus money price sounds
pretty juicy. Did you find that is that parlay?
Speaker 2: It wouldn't let you parlay it together.
Speaker 1: Because they know, you know why, because they know right
in the middle. Thank you, Jim, Do you like anything
in this game.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna stick with Saquon Barkley. With you, I'm gonna
play it a different way, though, I'm gonna go Barkley
over twenty and a half receiving yards. Everything that you
said rings true, and it looks like it's just not working. However,
they have to get him the ball in this offense,
and I would say a much more efficient way of
doing it, which they did last week, was get him
involved in the passing game. Also, the Steelers went over
this number against the Bears. The Giants sored over this
number with Singletary against the Bears. So this twenty and
a half is a very low number a couple plays.
If we're looking at three receptions to Barkley, I could
see it getting there. It just I'm not gonna buy
into Jalen Hurts being this comfortable quarterback because he threw
two touchdowns last week.
Speaker 4: It's just a clunky, clunky offense.
Speaker 5: And you see if it's not there, like Corbyn said,
he's not gonna throw it up for an interception, He's
gonna look for the check down. He's gonna look for
the dump off, and that's Barkley. So I only need
one in this game to make money. It's twenty and
a half for Barkley. That's it, biggest thing. Public service announcement.
Do not have nine million different bets on these games
while you've been drinking and eating all day. Take your
profits and get out of the holiday. Take your money
and run one play.
Speaker 4: We're out.
Speaker 1: I'm not kidding Corbyn when I say this is the
hardest besides the Super Bowl. Maybe this is the hardest
day to prevent yourself from live betting. There are only
three games, and yet when you're at Thanksgiving pulling out
your you can just heavy of the day and be like,
how did I have thirty bets today? And it's just
like mashed potatoes taste good? I'll fire one on Jamar Chase. Okay,
like uncle's telling a boring story. Let's going ooh burrow pass.
I'm I'm serious, man, Be careful, guy. That is that
is Jim's best Publicsnotsman, Be careful. It is way too
easy to pull out your phone and start firing off bets,
and at the end of the day you're like, three games,
how did I have thirty bets?
Speaker 4: My favorite? Out of wine? We're out of wine? But
we have whiskey, so the bets really get going once
you just go from wine to whiskey. That always works great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I put my bets in and that's it. There's
just on your account. Yeah, it's it's it really is
the truth. So however, if you want to join us
on bets that we made sober before that are properly
researched and not going off of your gut feeling at
three o'clock in the afternoon, join us, but really get
the seven day special sixty seven bucks locking in now,
start getting those plays asap for us. We have a
Formula One race with a sprint race involved, so that's
always good, and our NFL props. We also have NBA, NHL,
all the good stuff that we normally have. So thanks
very much, watching, safe travels, happy holidays, Happy Thanksgiving, enjoy yourself,
be responsible with your bankroll, and we'll have a video
out on Friday. Get you ready for the Sunday games.
Good luck under your bets and we'll see you later.
Speaker 4: Take care, good luck, Happy Thanksgiving,