WEBVTT 1 00:00:06.719 --> 00:00:09.400 Welcome back in today, guys. I've got Zach Pandel coming 2 00:00:09.439 --> 00:00:12.320 in from Grayscale. We are going to break down the 3 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:14.359 market because there's a lot happening. I want to thank 4 00:00:14.400 --> 00:00:17.879 our sponsor today and that is Uphold. We've all been there. 5 00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:21.480 Expenses pop up right when the market's starting to heat up. 6 00:00:21.760 --> 00:00:24.120 It's not the right time to sell. The last thing 7 00:00:24.160 --> 00:00:26.320 you want to do is sell your Bitcoin, your ethereum, 8 00:00:26.440 --> 00:00:30.039 your XRP, or even your stable coin USDC. This is 9 00:00:30.160 --> 00:00:33.799 exactly why Uphold launched the Exa credit card. When I 10 00:00:33.840 --> 00:00:36.399 found out about this, I was blown away. 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Again 22 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:11.439 looking forward to this conversation. 23 00:01:11.959 --> 00:01:14.319 Yeah, so we've got a lot happening in the markets 24 00:01:14.400 --> 00:01:17.319 right now. If you consider one thing, and that is 25 00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:20.760 just the simple thing of bitcoin price. We are now 26 00:01:20.799 --> 00:01:23.319 at sixty nine thousand, so we're seeing the sixes again. 27 00:01:24.120 --> 00:01:27.000 You look at a couple of points right now, and 28 00:01:27.280 --> 00:01:29.400 one of the things I want to focus in on 29 00:01:30.280 --> 00:01:32.959 is why so you've got a little bit of a 30 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:35.760 market pushback. There's been some selling across some of the 31 00:01:35.799 --> 00:01:38.920 major exchanges. Right there, I'm showing finance coinbas bybit. They're 32 00:01:38.959 --> 00:01:42.280 all offloading some large amounts right now. Do you think 33 00:01:42.319 --> 00:01:46.000 this is something to do with the broader risk market 34 00:01:46.200 --> 00:01:49.400 or is this simply a rotation of capital into what's 35 00:01:49.400 --> 00:01:51.200 happening over on the S and P five hundred. 36 00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:57.680 I think the bitcoin has a flow problem from a 37 00:01:57.799 --> 00:02:03.079 number of large sellers, particularly Strategy formerly micro Strategy, and 38 00:02:03.120 --> 00:02:06.040 the other large digital asset treasuries. I think we have 39 00:02:06.079 --> 00:02:09.919 an overhang of supply from the dats at the moment, 40 00:02:10.240 --> 00:02:13.159 and we're still working through that a supply. We have 41 00:02:13.840 --> 00:02:18.800 confirmation now that Strategy sold. We know that Maha or Marathon, 42 00:02:19.919 --> 00:02:22.400 the bitcoin minor, which also operates sort of as a 43 00:02:22.479 --> 00:02:25.159 Quasi dat had sold some assets, and some of the 44 00:02:25.199 --> 00:02:29.520 smaller players also selling. So look, I think that unfortunately, 45 00:02:29.520 --> 00:02:33.159 this is a bitcoin specific problem clearly not something that's 46 00:02:33.199 --> 00:02:35.039 weighing on the S and P five hundred, and I 47 00:02:35.080 --> 00:02:38.319 think it's largely a supply overhang from the dats. I 48 00:02:38.360 --> 00:02:40.439 think we're going to get through this in the coming 49 00:02:40.479 --> 00:02:42.680 weeks and find a durable bottom. 50 00:02:43.680 --> 00:02:47.159 Well that's the key right now, is finding the durable bottom. 51 00:02:47.280 --> 00:02:49.560 If we continue to see the S and P five 52 00:02:49.680 --> 00:02:54.759 hundred skyrocket, and if this does I mean because I've 53 00:02:54.759 --> 00:02:56.879 talked to a couple of analysts that I've got one 54 00:02:56.879 --> 00:02:59.639 analyst O here telling you this is a supercycle. This 55 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:02.000 is not like the bomb era. We are going to 56 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:05.000 continue to see this kind of train moving and we 57 00:03:05.039 --> 00:03:08.879 haven't seen anything like this in all of the finance 58 00:03:08.960 --> 00:03:13.280 sector's history. Do you think that continues to put pressure 59 00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:17.560 on risk in terms of just liquidity where the cash 60 00:03:17.639 --> 00:03:18.080 is moving. 61 00:03:20.039 --> 00:03:23.560 As long as risky assets like the stock market continue 62 00:03:23.599 --> 00:03:27.599 to go up, I think ultimately that's a positive for crypto, 63 00:03:28.000 --> 00:03:31.919 and I would see a setback in equities as something 64 00:03:31.960 --> 00:03:34.960 that could weigh on crypto short term. It's true that 65 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:39.039 there is maybe some rotation, you know, speculative investors taking 66 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:41.919 capital out of crypto deploying it into some of the 67 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:44.560 high flying AI stocks has been that been part of 68 00:03:44.560 --> 00:03:47.479 the story. Yes, I think absolutely, But it'd be pretty 69 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:50.840 unusual situation if the equity market continue to make new 70 00:03:50.919 --> 00:03:55.039 highs driven by AI and this other part of the market, 71 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:59.520 digital assets, which is complementary to AI, didn't ultimately participate 72 00:03:59.639 --> 00:04:02.599 in that a trade. So look, I think that crypto 73 00:04:02.680 --> 00:04:05.719 is going to catch up to the move inequities here 74 00:04:05.800 --> 00:04:09.120 over the coming months. It may take a few catalysts, 75 00:04:09.120 --> 00:04:11.599 some of the things that we'll talk about, clarity, maybe 76 00:04:11.639 --> 00:04:15.879 getting through this supply overhang, but rather than crypto staying 77 00:04:15.919 --> 00:04:18.639 depressed while equities take off, I ultimately think that there's 78 00:04:18.639 --> 00:04:21.040 a pretty good chance we catch up to the boom 79 00:04:21.079 --> 00:04:22.519 that we see in stocks. 80 00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:27.279 You look at Tom Lee's a narrative here, and we've 81 00:04:27.319 --> 00:04:29.839 talked about it before. He has this three phase idea, 82 00:04:30.399 --> 00:04:35.480 but he's also referencing the tailwinds that he thinks are sustainable, 83 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:38.600 which is what has happened to drive us to seventy 84 00:04:38.639 --> 00:04:42.920 six hundred. He's also talking about us GDP growth is accelerating. 85 00:04:42.959 --> 00:04:46.480 So this economy is not slowing down. And then the 86 00:04:46.519 --> 00:04:50.920 timing is he's saying leads into a raging bull in 87 00:04:50.920 --> 00:04:53.920 twenty twenty seven and beyond. Do you think that is? 88 00:04:54.120 --> 00:04:57.720 Would you put that timeline as the same as what 89 00:04:57.839 --> 00:04:59.680 Lee is pointing to or do you see a different 90 00:04:59.720 --> 00:05:00.600 frame work here. 91 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:04.519 Look, I love Tom Lee's work, and I agree with 92 00:05:04.560 --> 00:05:06.360 a lot a lot of that. I could see crypto 93 00:05:07.079 --> 00:05:11.240 recovering sooner than twenty twenty seven. I'm more optimistic, I 94 00:05:11.319 --> 00:05:14.439 think on the shorter term outlook. The only thing I 95 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:16.560 would add to that frame where is I think both 96 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:21.199 crypto and the equity market has some fed risk over 97 00:05:21.240 --> 00:05:25.759 the shorter term. Inflation is still running relatively high. We 98 00:05:25.800 --> 00:05:28.399 don't have a resolution in the Iran conflict, so it's 99 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:30.839 hard to be confident that oil prices will come down. 100 00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:34.040 So there is some risk that the Federal Reserve needs 101 00:05:34.040 --> 00:05:36.519 to at least talk about higher rates. That could be 102 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:39.839 the one thing that's a speed bump to risky assets 103 00:05:39.879 --> 00:05:42.399 over the coming months, and something I'm a little nervous about, 104 00:05:42.439 --> 00:05:42.680 to be. 105 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:45.600 Honest, Yeah, and I'm nervous, but I just saw some 106 00:05:45.680 --> 00:05:48.879 big data. Obviously, we're down here in Florida. I tweeted 107 00:05:48.879 --> 00:05:53.680 about this this morning, is that this is almost recessionary 108 00:05:53.920 --> 00:05:58.399 price action that's happening in the real estate market here 109 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:01.959 in Florida. And what I mean by that is that 110 00:06:02.439 --> 00:06:05.240 right now, it's almost twelve percent of homes in Florida 111 00:06:05.360 --> 00:06:08.879 have either lowered their price or actively lowering their price 112 00:06:09.160 --> 00:06:13.399 right now, which is very indicative of a risk on market, 113 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:15.959 which is our risk off market, which is what we're 114 00:06:15.959 --> 00:06:19.079 seeing now in real estate in Florida, which has been 115 00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:22.720 mostly bulletproof against these kind of things. If a rate 116 00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:26.360 hike were to come in come on, that would just 117 00:06:26.480 --> 00:06:29.720 absolutely put a bombshell in the middle of the real 118 00:06:29.839 --> 00:06:31.120 estate market, wouldn't you think. 119 00:06:32.040 --> 00:06:34.759 I do think it would be a major headwind for 120 00:06:35.000 --> 00:06:38.160 real estate. And we have this sort of bifurcated economy 121 00:06:38.199 --> 00:06:40.879 at the moment to Paul, where you know, AI AI 122 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:44.920 cap X related things really taking off and other parts 123 00:06:44.959 --> 00:06:47.480 of the economy looking a little bit soft. You know, 124 00:06:47.480 --> 00:06:49.560 what are you supposed to do as the Federal Reserve? 125 00:06:49.839 --> 00:06:52.279 You know, these are difficult decisions that are they're going 126 00:06:52.279 --> 00:06:55.240 to have to make, But ultimately, if inflation is still 127 00:06:55.319 --> 00:06:59.399 running around three percent or higher, they're probably going to 128 00:06:59.480 --> 00:07:01.439 need to take action on it, and that will be 129 00:07:01.480 --> 00:07:05.279 a surprise for President Trump to nominate a candidate President 130 00:07:05.279 --> 00:07:06.879 Trump obviously interested. 131 00:07:06.480 --> 00:07:07.399 In low rates. 132 00:07:07.680 --> 00:07:10.480 To nominate a candidate that ultimately raises rates pretty quick 133 00:07:10.480 --> 00:07:12.040 would be a surprise, But I don't think we can 134 00:07:12.160 --> 00:07:14.399 rule it out given what we're seeing on the inflation 135 00:07:14.480 --> 00:07:15.160 side of the ledger. 136 00:07:15.680 --> 00:07:17.879 What do you make of Charles Schwab saying they're going 137 00:07:17.920 --> 00:07:21.360 to roll out direct spot crypto trading to advisors next year. 138 00:07:22.480 --> 00:07:25.199 Well, it's great to see, and another and a long 139 00:07:25.399 --> 00:07:30.279 line of steps unlocking digital assets for every type of investor. 140 00:07:30.279 --> 00:07:33.160 Of course, greyscale has played a central role in that 141 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:37.199 story for more than a decade, providing more efficient access 142 00:07:37.240 --> 00:07:40.600 to investors to the digital assets space. And we want 143 00:07:40.639 --> 00:07:43.040 to see all these types of access opened up. The 144 00:07:43.279 --> 00:07:46.680 ETF products that we specialize in our a great solution 145 00:07:46.800 --> 00:07:51.279 for many investor types owning tokens directly on chain or 146 00:07:51.319 --> 00:07:54.519 through a wallet infrastructure. Is it going to be an 147 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:58.120 increasing part of the future story as well. We're thrilled 148 00:07:58.160 --> 00:07:59.639 to see this. I think it will be the first 149 00:07:59.639 --> 00:08:03.959 of many platforms opening up of true access to token trading. 150 00:08:04.560 --> 00:08:07.319 Well. Timing is interesting too, because that of course next 151 00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:10.360 year would mean that hopefully we're post clarity. By then, 152 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:13.839 rias are going to be getting much more active in 153 00:08:13.879 --> 00:08:16.360 the digital space, I think by then, and much more 154 00:08:16.480 --> 00:08:20.360 educated as well. Speaking of ETFs, I was looking at 155 00:08:20.360 --> 00:08:23.240 this right here, which is the chains by app revenue 156 00:08:23.560 --> 00:08:26.800 in May, Solana leading the way. I know you guys 157 00:08:26.839 --> 00:08:30.000 have ETFs around a lot of these. Hyper Liquid comes 158 00:08:30.040 --> 00:08:33.840 at number two, but Solana was up ninety one million, 159 00:08:33.879 --> 00:08:36.879 almost double hyper liquid. That blew me away when you 160 00:08:36.879 --> 00:08:40.000 saw the app revenue just in May. Ethereum came in 161 00:08:40.039 --> 00:08:41.720 a little soft at fifty two, and then you have 162 00:08:41.799 --> 00:08:44.879 Polygon and Base. When you look at these chains right 163 00:08:44.919 --> 00:08:49.399 now and you consider the opportunity, is it Solana that 164 00:08:49.480 --> 00:08:53.840 you think might end up leading this somewhat bear market. 165 00:08:54.399 --> 00:08:57.440 Out of this bear market, what do you think. 166 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:00.720 Well, you have a couple of chains that are running 167 00:09:00.759 --> 00:09:04.600 ahead of the others over the short term. Some people 168 00:09:04.679 --> 00:09:08.480 are calling it the three headed dragon of hyper liquid, 169 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:11.360 z cash, and niear. I would say those are the 170 00:09:11.399 --> 00:09:14.159 things that really have stood out since the end of March, 171 00:09:14.200 --> 00:09:16.759 since we've seen some movement in the ald coin space. 172 00:09:16.960 --> 00:09:20.000 I think those can continue to be leaders. That being said, 173 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:22.159 I think that's a great chart that highlights really the 174 00:09:22.200 --> 00:09:27.240 strength of the Salana ecosystem. Incredible diversity projects that make 175 00:09:27.480 --> 00:09:33.480 real revenue and have lots of users. It's a very sound, durable, 176 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:34.919 diverse ecosystem. 177 00:09:35.000 --> 00:09:35.480 Solana. 178 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:38.159 It should be a key part in anybody's crypto portfolio, 179 00:09:38.159 --> 00:09:41.360 and I think entry points to that asset are very good. 180 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:43.480 At the moment. Solana is not going anywhere. 181 00:09:43.559 --> 00:09:46.679 You're getting, as a longer term investor, a great access 182 00:09:46.720 --> 00:09:48.679 point in the ecosystem at current prices. 183 00:09:49.759 --> 00:09:54.600 I saw this right here, which was a topic on gold, 184 00:09:55.159 --> 00:09:58.559 and the question was I think a lot of people 185 00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:01.039 at least in our chat was talking this very issue, 186 00:10:01.080 --> 00:10:04.200 and that is gold starting to take over for treasuries. 187 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:07.600 The ECB comes in it says, yeah, the gold has 188 00:10:07.679 --> 00:10:10.480 replaced treasuries as the worldtop preserve. I don't see how 189 00:10:10.480 --> 00:10:13.720 there's enough gold to do that. What do you make of. 190 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:17.399 This, well, Paul, this is a topic near and dear 191 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:18.519 to my heart. Definitely. 192 00:10:18.519 --> 00:10:21.200 The reason that I started to get so interested in 193 00:10:21.240 --> 00:10:24.360 bitcoin back in the day was thinking about exactly the 194 00:10:24.480 --> 00:10:29.279 challenges of fiat currencies. Debt and deficits are fracturing global 195 00:10:29.279 --> 00:10:32.240 monetary system, and some of the things that have driven 196 00:10:32.279 --> 00:10:36.279 central banks to look at gold. Your listeners will remember 197 00:10:36.320 --> 00:10:39.120 that really the thing that I think was the starting 198 00:10:39.200 --> 00:10:43.360 gun on this diversification process was actually Russia's invasion of 199 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:47.159 Ukraine and the sanctions that the US and European governments 200 00:10:47.159 --> 00:10:50.360 imposed on the Russian Central Bank really motivated a rethinking 201 00:10:50.879 --> 00:10:53.919 about the security of treasury bonds as reserves and a 202 00:10:54.039 --> 00:10:58.440 need for major central banks to start accumulating gold again. 203 00:10:58.480 --> 00:11:01.639 And that's been a huge run. Look, my own personal 204 00:11:01.720 --> 00:11:03.679 view is that this continues for a long time, and 205 00:11:04.000 --> 00:11:08.679 ultimately it also incorporates digital assets. I think bitcoin and 206 00:11:08.759 --> 00:11:11.399 some other digital assets have features like a goal that 207 00:11:12.559 --> 00:11:15.200 have a role to play in central bank up portfolios 208 00:11:15.240 --> 00:11:18.360 and will compete with treasury bonds with other types of 209 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:22.600 Fiat currency risk, and they belong there in those portfolios 210 00:11:22.600 --> 00:11:23.279 for the long run. 211 00:11:23.799 --> 00:11:27.320 Could we ever see an ETF that is multi asset 212 00:11:27.480 --> 00:11:29.120 with multi markets. 213 00:11:29.720 --> 00:11:31.960 Absolutely, I think watch this space. 214 00:11:32.919 --> 00:11:38.360 I think you will see portfolios that blend both equities 215 00:11:38.399 --> 00:11:43.200 and eat crypto exposures for different themes. I don't want 216 00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:45.559 to overshare here at this moment. I think you will 217 00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:49.240 see more of that and also sort of acid allocation 218 00:11:49.360 --> 00:11:53.519 type products that look across the spectrum and incorporate digital assets. 219 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:55.919 I think that absolutely will be part of the next 220 00:11:56.080 --> 00:12:00.200 phase of product innovation for digital assets. 221 00:12:00.840 --> 00:12:02.600 Well, a lot of that is going to be critical 222 00:12:03.919 --> 00:12:06.480 in terms of what's going on with Clarity, because the 223 00:12:06.480 --> 00:12:10.000 Clarity Act is entering a very very important four week 224 00:12:10.039 --> 00:12:13.879 window right now. The Senate returns back to DC and 225 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:17.440 they're expected to resume on Clarity right now. The question 226 00:12:18.360 --> 00:12:20.200 really because we had that and I'll show you the 227 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.080 poly market actually, let me bring it up real quick 228 00:12:23.440 --> 00:12:26.639 because this was a little bit surprising on where poly 229 00:12:26.799 --> 00:12:30.559 market was on Clarity. And I'll show the week on 230 00:12:30.600 --> 00:12:33.159 this for you guys that might be listening in the audio. 231 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:35.960 It started right around sixty one. We had kind of 232 00:12:35.960 --> 00:12:40.000 peaked around right there on May. Yeah, so you're looking 233 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:42.919 at around May thirty first, around sixty one percent, and 234 00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:45.879 then it dove over the weekend and we saw a 235 00:12:46.080 --> 00:12:49.919 very low point right here just yesterday, which was holding 236 00:12:49.960 --> 00:12:52.000 it at a forty nine percent chance, and it is 237 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:54.960 bounced back today and it's holding it fifty five. So 238 00:12:55.799 --> 00:13:00.240 why do you think the erratic nature first? And do 239 00:13:00.279 --> 00:13:03.720 you think that Congress is going to get this on 240 00:13:03.759 --> 00:13:06.039 the floor before the midterms. 241 00:13:07.759 --> 00:13:10.559 I think clarity is coming, and I think that we're 242 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:13.919 going to see rapid progress over the next month or two. 243 00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:16.759 It's not a done deal, and there are obviously people 244 00:13:16.799 --> 00:13:20.639 opposing the legislation. As we've talked about in the past, Paul, 245 00:13:20.720 --> 00:13:24.200 the banking lobby is not thrilled about this piece of legislation. 246 00:13:24.519 --> 00:13:27.320 But that's one good sign that it is making real 247 00:13:27.399 --> 00:13:31.120 inroads and has a real shot to pass. Look, my 248 00:13:31.480 --> 00:13:35.960 personal odds are higher and more stable than the polymarket contract. 249 00:13:36.039 --> 00:13:36.399 I think. 250 00:13:36.600 --> 00:13:38.559 As much as I love poly market, I look at 251 00:13:38.559 --> 00:13:40.519 these charts myself, so you know, the liquidity on some 252 00:13:40.600 --> 00:13:42.840 of these contracts are a bit low, and so we 253 00:13:42.879 --> 00:13:45.879 just need to be careful not to overinterpret them. I 254 00:13:45.879 --> 00:13:48.519 think maybe the gyrations reflect just you know, people are 255 00:13:48.519 --> 00:13:51.600 a little unsure and it's a it's a thin market. 256 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:53.799 But you know, we're gonna see big steps over the 257 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:55.759 coming weeks, you know. To me, the biggest piece of 258 00:13:55.759 --> 00:13:59.720 news recently was Jamie Diamond and some of the other 259 00:14:00.200 --> 00:14:03.679 key constituents in the bank lobby really coming out so 260 00:14:03.879 --> 00:14:07.919 forcedly against Clarity is a sign that they need to 261 00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:10.679 spend their time, their effort, their lobbying dollars on this 262 00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:13.679 tobby because it's very important and it's probably likely going 263 00:14:13.919 --> 00:14:16.120 to pass, so you know, we will see how the 264 00:14:16.159 --> 00:14:17.320 next couple of months shakeout. 265 00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:19.480 I hope that this passes. I think this will pass. 266 00:14:19.720 --> 00:14:23.080 I think it will be very positive for ensuring that 267 00:14:23.440 --> 00:14:26.200 crypto can continue to be built effectively in the United States. 268 00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:31.559 This was an odd video that came in from the 269 00:14:32.320 --> 00:14:35.559 chief policy officer with Coinbasin, and what he was talking 270 00:14:35.559 --> 00:14:39.360 about was that it was almost because, I mean, we 271 00:14:39.440 --> 00:14:42.480 all heard the words come out of Jamie Diamond's mouth 272 00:14:42.519 --> 00:14:49.240 about Coinbase. Brian Armstrong wasn't nice. But at the same time, 273 00:14:49.360 --> 00:14:52.360 it's as if Coinbase is trying to play kind of 274 00:14:52.519 --> 00:14:55.480 nice with the banks, saying, hey, every big bank is 275 00:14:55.480 --> 00:14:57.720 going to get into this crypto sector. This is after 276 00:14:57.799 --> 00:15:01.000 those statements. So I'm getting mixed signals here as to 277 00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:04.440 what's actually going on up there. Is this all theater? 278 00:15:04.960 --> 00:15:08.559 I'm beginning to wonder if this is all theater going forward? 279 00:15:08.679 --> 00:15:11.519 So well, I think you can assume that things that 280 00:15:11.600 --> 00:15:15.120 happen in Washington are mostly theater. Uh And you know my, 281 00:15:15.440 --> 00:15:17.720 I'll leave that to the professionals and the lobbyist. You 282 00:15:17.720 --> 00:15:19.879 know my, my judgment as a market analyst is to 283 00:15:19.879 --> 00:15:22.080 try to get my best guess odds on this thing 284 00:15:22.120 --> 00:15:24.480 happening or not. And I feel pretty good about it. 285 00:15:24.519 --> 00:15:26.159 That's my that's my judgment. 286 00:15:26.159 --> 00:15:28.720 I like it, Yeah, I like it. Listen, we've got 287 00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:32.840 to talk about XRP ETFs continuing to be on the 288 00:15:32.919 --> 00:15:35.919 move here right now, we've got some big winners right now. 289 00:15:35.960 --> 00:15:40.159 Bit Wise leads out with the largest position at least 290 00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:44.000 in XRP, Franklin templand holding number two. Canary, you guys 291 00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:47.159 coming in at number four. So growth is still coming 292 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:53.519 in pretty aggressively. And this right here was pretty interesting 293 00:15:53.600 --> 00:15:57.360 because we've talked about this before with some other analysts 294 00:15:58.039 --> 00:16:01.840 and it was trying to predict where xrp's total assets 295 00:16:01.919 --> 00:16:05.919 net assets would be crossing now one point one billion 296 00:16:07.000 --> 00:16:10.679 coming in hot. So where do you think this ends up? 297 00:16:10.720 --> 00:16:14.879 All ETFs by end of year holding XRPH, where do 298 00:16:14.919 --> 00:16:16.159 you think this ends up? 299 00:16:17.159 --> 00:16:19.360 Yeah? Good, good question. I think it's a good highlight 300 00:16:19.440 --> 00:16:19.840 of Paul. 301 00:16:20.440 --> 00:16:24.679 The XRP ETFs have been popular with investors lately, and 302 00:16:25.039 --> 00:16:27.799 I have seen inflows while some of the other products 303 00:16:27.840 --> 00:16:30.919 have seen outflows. I think one of the advantages here 304 00:16:31.000 --> 00:16:34.679 is is diversification in a in a crypto portfolio. You know, 305 00:16:34.720 --> 00:16:38.799 bitcoin and ethereum ETFs have seen similar behavior and similar 306 00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:41.639 price action. XRP uh, you know, sort of zigging while 307 00:16:41.639 --> 00:16:44.559 the others are are zagging. Makes it a good diversifier 308 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:47.559 in the mix. In terms of where this is going, look, 309 00:16:47.600 --> 00:16:50.480 I think some rough benchmarks can be the percent of 310 00:16:50.679 --> 00:16:53.720 assets that are held in the bitcoin and ethereum ETFs 311 00:16:53.720 --> 00:16:56.279 that are a little bit further along, you know, that's 312 00:16:56.279 --> 00:16:58.879 in the zone of you know, five six percent or 313 00:16:58.960 --> 00:17:02.720 so any given a month. I think probably that's the 314 00:17:02.799 --> 00:17:07.160 shorter term direction of travel for XRP other ult coins 315 00:17:07.240 --> 00:17:09.400 is heading in that the direction of total asset and 316 00:17:09.440 --> 00:17:12.200 then probably more growth over time. But I would expect 317 00:17:12.200 --> 00:17:13.880 to get you know, to five six percent of the 318 00:17:14.359 --> 00:17:18.079 outstanding circulating supply and then we'll see, you know, we'll 319 00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:19.799 see what investor appetite looks like. 320 00:17:20.640 --> 00:17:23.119 When you say to five to six percent of outstanding 321 00:17:23.119 --> 00:17:27.319 supply of both assets accumulative or each individual asset. 322 00:17:27.559 --> 00:17:30.880 Meaning the XRP ETFs collectively hold you know, five to 323 00:17:30.920 --> 00:17:34.200 six percent of the circulating supply of the XORP token 324 00:17:34.279 --> 00:17:37.480 something like that with a big round number. Guess as 325 00:17:37.480 --> 00:17:39.960 a starting point. I think we're heading in that direction. 326 00:17:40.000 --> 00:17:42.599 I think XORP has seen, as you said, lot lots 327 00:17:42.640 --> 00:17:45.200 of demand. I think there's a good chance that that 328 00:17:45.359 --> 00:17:48.640 or certainly higher number in the ETFA structure as possible. 329 00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:52.400 SEEMI Group is officially live with twenty four to seven 330 00:17:52.400 --> 00:17:56.519 crypto futures now, so that's all rolling Ripple Prime, their 331 00:17:56.599 --> 00:18:02.200 day one clearing and financing partner is underway. XRP futures also, 332 00:18:02.279 --> 00:18:04.559 as you know, kind of just as a note, they 333 00:18:04.559 --> 00:18:07.440 were the fastest ever to cross the one billion in 334 00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:11.279 open interest on CIMI, so that in itself probably opens 335 00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:14.279 up a large market. How big of an impact is 336 00:18:14.319 --> 00:18:16.960 this on the markets in generally what's going on right 337 00:18:17.000 --> 00:18:19.720 now with just crypto futures and options. 338 00:18:20.759 --> 00:18:24.319 Yeah, Well, futures are a huge part of the ecosystem, 339 00:18:24.519 --> 00:18:26.599 and I think are a big part of the broader 340 00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:28.880 adoption story of the technology. 341 00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:29.880 You know. 342 00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:34.119 Futures of course a critical element of virtually every developed 343 00:18:34.279 --> 00:18:37.920 financial asset, and an important part in crypto. They're used 344 00:18:37.920 --> 00:18:43.720 for hedgers, speculators for basis trade activity, and certainly for 345 00:18:43.880 --> 00:18:48.240 institutional investors like hedge funds that want to capture leverage 346 00:18:48.279 --> 00:18:51.400 through a regulated product. Of futures are still the right 347 00:18:51.440 --> 00:18:53.960 place to go. And then of course there's the bigger 348 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:56.240 story Paul, that we've talked about as well, but. 349 00:18:56.240 --> 00:18:57.400 Of perpetual futures. 350 00:18:57.920 --> 00:19:01.599 Perpetual futures are a crypto native that is being exported 351 00:19:01.640 --> 00:19:05.160 to traditional finance. We saw the CFDC on Friday grant 352 00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:08.119 the first perpetual futures product to Calshi. We're going to 353 00:19:08.119 --> 00:19:10.920 see a bunch more of that. That'll be a tailwind 354 00:19:11.000 --> 00:19:14.440 for hyper liquid and other kind of platforms associated with 355 00:19:14.720 --> 00:19:17.960 a perpetual futures maybe Salona ecosystem and other things, and 356 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:20.920 I think places like the CME will ultimately list these 357 00:19:20.960 --> 00:19:23.440 products as well. So futures have been an important part 358 00:19:23.480 --> 00:19:26.240 of crypto to date. I think our way in which 359 00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:29.240 crypto is beginning to reshape traditional finance as well. 360 00:19:30.359 --> 00:19:32.559 We saw and had a chance to talk with a 361 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:36.880 founder that is building an AI tool for AI enhanced trading, 362 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:40.680 and I asked him very specifically if that tool is 363 00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:45.480 going to be available for ETFs for basically it to 364 00:19:45.559 --> 00:19:48.839 manage and fund in and out of ETFs as well 365 00:19:48.839 --> 00:19:53.519 as vaults. His answer was yes, So it's likely that 366 00:19:53.559 --> 00:19:54.920 we're going to see a lot more of these tools 367 00:19:54.920 --> 00:19:56.480 out there. What do you make of that? If we 368 00:19:56.519 --> 00:20:00.079 do see AI trading occur and it starts to go 369 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:03.079 out and find us the best deals, whether it's vault 370 00:20:03.200 --> 00:20:06.119 best deals for yield, or it's the best ETFs for 371 00:20:06.400 --> 00:20:09.599 lowest rates, best activity to liquidity, all that, what do 372 00:20:09.680 --> 00:20:10.039 you think? 373 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:14.559 Well, I think it's incredibly exciting vision, and I think 374 00:20:14.599 --> 00:20:18.559 something that will drive liquidity and volume and transaction activity 375 00:20:18.559 --> 00:20:23.200 for blockchain, so kind of fundamentally and important growth driver 376 00:20:23.319 --> 00:20:27.599 potentially of crypto and blockchain adoption. I'm curious to see 377 00:20:27.599 --> 00:20:31.440 what risk parameters we put around you as well, because 378 00:20:31.480 --> 00:20:34.079 you know, you put a bazooka in the hands of 379 00:20:34.119 --> 00:20:36.079 a novice, you know you better watch out what's going 380 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:38.880 to happen. So are these sort of things have been 381 00:20:39.000 --> 00:20:41.240 a part of like the hedge fund and quantitative trading 382 00:20:41.480 --> 00:20:44.720 ecosystem for a long time. Black professional investors, they put 383 00:20:44.720 --> 00:20:46.640 a risk framework around it. I think we're going to 384 00:20:46.720 --> 00:20:49.680 need if AI agents are deploying capital for the every 385 00:20:49.720 --> 00:20:51.960 man like myself. I hope that's the case, but I 386 00:20:52.039 --> 00:20:54.759 want to make sure I have a fullsome risk framework 387 00:20:54.759 --> 00:20:55.119 around it. 388 00:20:55.359 --> 00:20:58.279 Listen, I did. I did a full test on it. 389 00:20:58.359 --> 00:21:00.799 Last week in paper mode, which is you know where 390 00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:06.720 it's basically trading you know, fictitious portfolios. I got absolutely demolished. 391 00:21:08.079 --> 00:21:11.519 So I'm not totally in on it just yet. But 392 00:21:11.720 --> 00:21:14.960 there were some wins within it, but not enough to 393 00:21:14.960 --> 00:21:17.440 be able to make that like a successful test. I 394 00:21:17.440 --> 00:21:19.599 think you're right. I think the key is it's going 395 00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:22.240 to be one. It's going to have to learn and 396 00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:26.599 understand the market dynamics are so fluid right now, and 397 00:21:26.720 --> 00:21:29.240 to be able to keep up with that, I don't know. 398 00:21:29.359 --> 00:21:31.440 I'm still on the fence as to how it's going 399 00:21:31.519 --> 00:21:36.039 to be super efficient now. Tactical measurements like hey, go 400 00:21:36.119 --> 00:21:39.680 out and buy this asset and find me the best rate. 401 00:21:40.200 --> 00:21:43.279