Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is total basis. We're
here to kick off a new week. It is Monday.
I'm here with Brian Leonard, Tokyo Brandon, and our goal
is to do what we're here to do, five days
a week, every day, nine am Eastern, bring you solid
MLB analysis and free MLB picks, the only show right
now that's exclusively doing MLB free picks on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. So appreciate you guys tuning in with us,
and guess we'll get right into it. I didn't even
have a I didn't have a feature game in mind,
per se, but I think I know what it is.
Brian Leonard, we got to talk Cubs Brewers. This is
a huge series in the NL Central. Shocking in my
opinion that the Brewers have closed the gap as quickly
as they have, because if you go back a month,
what are the Cubs have a six game lead in
this division? Now it looks like this race might be
it might be like one of the storylines of the
second half. So Cubs Brewers, we got I believe it's
Matt Boyd for the Cubs. Are you getting involved with
this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Boyd against Miseroski and Boyd is actually a slight favorite
right now minus minus one twelve thirteen or something for Boyd,
a lefty going against Miserowski at home, a total of
at eight. The problem with Meserowski is they're trying to
limit his innings for the playoffs, so as you have seen,
they will pull him early after like sixty pitches. Not
good for his fantasy value if you're at him on
your fantasy team because he doesn't get the wins. But
he still has been very impressive. We'll see how this goes.
Matthew Boyd comes in with a two point two OERA
three point two two expected, so he's pitching over his head,
but he's been terrific. Last year had that two point
seven two, but he only had eight games. This year's
up to twenty already, so he's gone from seventy one
innings in twenty twenty three, only thirty nine last year
with an injury, and now he's up to one hundred
and eighteen. So I just talked about Meserawski limiting their innings.
I'm a little bit worried about Matthew Boyd getting his
innings limited. At this point, he's already over what he
has been for a long time. In fact, you go
back in his career right now, I was the seventeen
eighty two pitches thrown. You got to go all the
way back to twenty nineteen where he threw thirty one hundred.
So it's been a while since he's been up in
this numbers. So I could see even though he's got
two great pictures on the mound here, I could see
this possibly going over. His weap is one point o one.
He's got a lot of really nice numbers walk grate
obviously being number one at ninety three, but he's ground
bow percentage is only in the thirty second percentile, fifth percentage,
thirty third. A lot of his numbers are showing that
he's been pretty lucky so far. But still he's been great,
and we'll see what happens. Misowski two point four five,
ERA zero point nine two, whip two point four to
seven expected ninety ninth percentile and extension, and he's six
foot seven, so that makes it very hard uh to see.
Plus his fastball velocities in the ninety ninth percentile. His
average for saymer is ninety nine point three, which is
about four and a half miles an hour faster than
the average right hander. Two very pressive pitchers, but I
am worried about their limited innings, so I think we'll
see the bullpens for probably three to four innings at
least for the Cubs. Cubs probably three innings, Milwaukee may
get four, maybe get five out of this. So if
you do like these pitchers and you want to bet
the under, I would bet the first half under as
opposed to the game, so it seems to be price
right for me. I don't know if I'll get involved,
but I'd definitely be watching it. I love these two pictures.
It should be a fun game to watch.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with Brian. Miserrowski's been great so far
in his six starts of his MLB career. One bad
game only against the Mets. He gave up five, and
every other start he's given up two or lesser and
runs excellent stuff if you look at the expected numbers
and current form. Actually I got Matthew Boyd ranked higher
than Miserowski, but like Brian said, he's not exactly a
spring chicken. He's thirty four years old, so usually these
guys who are over thirty ten to either limit innings
or regress in the second half most of them. Let's see,
Boyd has great stats against these Brewers though in his
career thirty three at vats against one eighty two average
against in a four eighty five ops, which is shiny
shiny like seven fIF actually average. So I would agree
on the first five under here if you can get
a four and a half or altered up to a
four and a half four and a half, I certainly
don't think that this game is going to be on
a one inning pace or one run per inning pace
in the first five. It could get there in it
at the end. As far as my rankings are concerned,
I have the Brewers ranked slightly higher and hitting slightly
higher in bullpen, and then I got Void slightly higher
than Milwaukee, so I won't play aside.
Speaker 1: So two follow ups to two things you said in
regards to Bisarowski, which are I think are very important.
One Tokyo Brandon pointed out his one bad start was
the Mets start. That was when he kind of got
jerked around with the rain, So I think he actually
may have gotten rained out and maybe pushed off a day.
I know that start came as part of that doubleheader
against the Mets. I can't remember if it was like
the second game, but long story short, he probably you know,
that probably disrupted his you know, prep a little bit
because there was rain, and I think he maybe got
pushed today or so on and so forth. The second
thing was Brian pointed out last week, you know, getting
pulled early that by anything that I could find, look
to be by design, Like that looked to be planned out.
He had pitched one inning in two weeks, so he
had made a start. He had thrown an inning seven
days later during the All Star Game, and then that
start came seven days later. So he was all smiles
when he came out of that game. There was no
like if you watch the game, I mean he was
in the dugout joke and with like that was a
pre planned Hey you could be you could throw sixty
straight strikes. Sixty five pitches were done today, So I
don't even look anything into that.
Speaker 2: That was just like, hey, you haven't thrown much in
two weeks.
Speaker 1: We really because now you got to think the Brewers
have had to like do this probably shift in thought
process where it was like, let's get him up if
you're a Milwaukee you got to be like, this is
our game one starter in the playoffs right here, Like,
we think we have a good enough team to get
to the playoffs now, and this is the guy that
we want starting the big games in the playoffs. And
I think you're gonna see them start to manage like
that a little bit now. So that's why he was
out early last week. And you know what, though, I
don't think that is a real reason to like, maybe
not back him. The better reason in terms of not
backing him, would be, I think he's gonna start getting
the Paul Skeans treatment where there's just gonna be zero
value in doing so. Now Here you could say, okay,
there's a little value you get him at a pick,
but in my opinion, you're getting him a year. The
Brewers are still the lesser team that the Cubs are
still going to win this division, I think, and the
Cubs with Matt Boyd on the mound, is still a
more complete team. I think the Cubs are gonna flex
on some teams over the next four or five weeks
where it's like they had their little lull surrounding the
All Star break and you're gonna see the Cubs sort
of like reinforce why they maybe are the best team
in the National League this year. So no shade to
the Brewers, but they are, in my opinion, up against
a better team, and I lean Cubs because of that.
Speaker 2: Go ahead Bright.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this was the game that I mentioned last week
that the coach was on the national broadcast on uh
ON in Baseball and he talked about it. He said, yeah,
he said, he says we're going to pull him early.
And when I looked, it was under five innings or whatever,
it minus two fifty on on his stats. But yeah,
it's what happened. But I got to say, Brandon, was
it was it Friday show that you used the Brewers
on and then all of a sudden they had a
bad weekend. So I know, I sure hope you don't
have a play honor against the Brewers today because that's
the one team that's been giving you struggles. Mine has
been really Houston Astros. And I should have been listening
to a trig over the last three weeks about the
Astros because they continue to burn my bankroll.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they very much look like the sugar Lands Space
Cowboys this weekend, which that lineup was basically sugar Lands
lineup at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: So just to before we move on from this game.
Speaker 1: Though, Sean is right, like he says he's not going
past sixty pitches. I could see him going past sixty pitches.
But the point is he they're they're the Brewers have
to start limiting limiting his pitches. Markinson says, do we
know why they're limiting his pitches? Yeah, because now the
Brewers they know that they are, Like if you look
at the National League and where they are, they should
be a playoff team this year, and that that's your game.
That is your that's your game one starter in the playoffs.
Like that, he is your ace. So you now the
Brewers as equally as is important to win games, you
have to get to September or you have to get
to October with Miserowski ready to rock as your ace.
If you want to if you want to win anything
other than like, if you want to do anything other
than get to the playoffs, if you want to win
in the playoffs, this has to be your ace and
you've got to be able to send him out there
as such.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, last comment, Uh, he will not be their
number one starter, unless it happens to come up that way.
They've already talked about their other two veterans that they're
healthy now, so he'll be number three. But that's he
will be the best number three starter in baseball. Want
to get to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: That's a good point, Brian, I misspoke. I should not
have said that. What I meant is he is the
X factor from them being a wild card team to
potentially ending up in the World Series. I should have
I should have phrased that differently. Sorry, TV, were you
gonna jump in there?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 1: No? Uh?
Speaker 4: Number three starter, Yeah, Seattle's got a pretty good one
in WU as well. But yeah, I mean that's a
heck of a that's a heck of a rotation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that I should have. I should have phrased that differently.
Speaker 1: I mean, like, he's the X factor that could get
them to like over the hump against the team like
the Dodgers or the or the Cubs come playoff time
if they team them out.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, for a team that's supposed to be nose diving. Yeah,
it's a great rotation.
Speaker 1: Well, I just think it illustrates the point perfectly where
it's like they were in a little bit of limbo
and they bring him up. Like, listen, you can't expect
We've seen talented guys come up. You can't expect this
to happen. This is this is the dream. This is
the miser Miseroski thing. Is why these teams call these
guys up when they do. It's why the Reds call
Chase Burns up. What we do right, Like, it's like
the dream is to have it all click at the
big league level and then to be able to sort
of be like, oh now we've got this guy this year.
Speaker 2: We didn't expect to have him.
Speaker 1: It's like it's like going out and signing a big
time free agent. So that's you know that, That's really
what the reason for bringing that up was.
Speaker 4: All right, Also have that Henderson guy too.
Speaker 3: Can't find his plot for him right now, I can
back up there.
Speaker 4: But Dodgers, the dogs would kill for that hill.
Speaker 1: They are they He pitched good again this weekend at
Triple A, like he's he's down there and and he's
giving them reasons to bring them up. But like Brian said,
they're they're just it's a it's an embarrassment of riches
to an extent. It's not a bad problem to have.
Let's put it that way. Let's go to this game.
This is an interesting one. Brian kind of alluded to
it a second ago. The A's took it out on
the Astros this weekend, Nick Nick Kurtz one of the
best performances in recent memory for Homers. Think he went
six for six in that game. Brian Leonard, this is
a This is a big series for the Mariners. They
made the move for Naylor last week, they turned around
and I think dropped two of three to the Angels.
The A's come in red hot, and we've talked about
the A's a bunch of young kids. When they get going,
they get going, uh and and they you know, when
they're playing good, they're playing good. When they're playing poorly,
they're playing poorly. How much of last weekend do you
think was the Astros finally coming back to Earth and
playing to their level or as the A's a team
you want to keep riding here? Interesting series of A's Mariners.
How do you see in this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think a little of both, especially the Houston
coming down to earth a little bit. I am surprised
a little bit about this line. Seattle is a legitimate
playoff team. The A has got a pretty nice future,
at least from their hitting standpoint. But Castillo on the
road against seriars here series a lefty, Castillo's down to
like a you know, a one thirteen, one fourteen favorite
here and the total is ten. I've not been a
still fan if you watch this at all, but still
that number is a little bit cheap if you ask me,
if you're look at place Seattle series has been pretty good,
but he's he's a journeyman. He's a fourth or fifth
starter for most teams. So I'm a little bit surprised
about the Lion. So maybe there's a little bit of
value here on Seattle. But Castillo three point three, Oh,
you're a four point twenty six expected one point two
for a whip. You know, the last two years combined,
despite playing for what I consider a pretty good team
in Seattle. I know, wins losses don't tell the whole story.
But he's he's eighteen and eighteen. Even though he's been
a really good pitcher three point six four ERA three
point three zero, his numbers have not been good. There's
really no red on his deckcast page. The best things
he does is his walk grade sixty seven percent, fastball
rate sixty fifth. So you know, he's a guy that
I've been looking to fade, but I don't know if
I could fade him at this number. Maybe do something
with the a's, you know, maybe team total over or
something to that effect. But JP sears four point nine
to eighty RA three point ninety five expected, just the opposite.
He's been better than what his number show, one point
twenty five whip. His walk grade is really the only
thing he's good at. He's in the eighty fifth percentile,
only walks five point eight his walk percentage. His struckout
percentage is twenty point one, so he's got a fourteen
point three, slightly less than league average. So we got
two pictures here that are okay, but I don't I
don't think there are anything special. So the total of
ten makes sense, and they can even be a little
bit short because this has been a pretty good hitting ballpark,
although mostly it's been the visiting teams that have been
hitting in Sacramento. Slight value on Seattle, slight value on
the over likely not getting involved. At this point, I'll
give it more of a look later on, and I
will say, as opposed to the games we've had over
the weekend, all these games are on the evening card,
and most of them have pretty good weather situations. There's
only one or two that you have to worry about
some rain. The Minnesota game is pretty nice all day long,
and then at night it really the weather is supposed
to be really bad, so you know, and with that,
if they didn't have the fans storry about, they could
easily move this game to a day game and get
the game in. But I think there's gonna be some
some stoppages in the in the game tonight for the
Boston Minnesota game. But other than that, looks pretty clear
out there.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna kind of go against Brian on this one
because I really like I really like the JP series
in this one. I like how he's pitched. He's got
one hundred and nine at bats against the Seattle lineup.
He's got a one to sixty five average against in
a for eighty two oh ps. That's amazing. I realize
that he's kind of dropped off. Like two or three
years ago, Sears was like just really dealing, but he's
kind of fallen off a cliff a little bit. I
think he can recover, though I think he can. I
think he can hold cl down quite a bit. I
like Castillo's numbers. I agree with Brian in the fact
that Castillo's kind of on a downward trajectory in his career.
He's not the the lights out k master that he
used to be, but he's a He's a very respectable
innings leader right now. I mean he quietly holds teams
to If you look at his last five starts, it's
three earned, zero earned, three earned, zero earned, one earned.
He's actually got quality starts in most of his starts
this season, so I like how he's performing. So I
kind of like the under on this one. I realized
the park is like a little A game a Nintendo
park here where the balls do tend to fly. But
I think ten's a little high here, considering the pitchers
have good numbers and looking at the bullpens. I have
both of these bullpens ranked thirteen or better out of
thirty teams, So I think I'll look at an under
in this one.
Speaker 1: Russell in the comments says, Adam glows when he talks
about the A's. Yeah, I don't have children, but I
have to feel like this is similar to like when
you see your kid go out and like play a
good game where they do something to make you proud.
I feel like it's like similar to that, because before
the season I talk this team up. I think I
gave out Jacob Wilson Rookie of the Year year on
a show somewhere, which has proved to be a good
bet based on where that is in the market. Now,
if you listen to my breakdowns even last year into
this year, I was I was already talking about all
these kids Nick Kurtz and like that that are now
up and playing well. And I still think I'm gonna
end up being right about the A's exceeding their market position,
meaning getting their season win total over But on a
day to day basis, they've been value and if you've
been able so that. The tough part about the A's
is that they go on these they'll go on these
stretches where they are terrible for a couple of weeks
at a time, if you've been able to sort of
like meander with them and like try to catch them
when they're playing good ball and then leave them when
they're on one of these ruts where they lose nine
of ten. I bet you've done pretty well, you know,
betting the A's this year, because it really has been
feast or famine for this team. It's why I can't
bet the Mariners here, even like Evan Bambridge has like
the Mariners in this game favorite spot on the card.
If the A's weren't red hot right now, I would
agree with you, like Brian's brought it up a couple
times this year, very much agree that the Mariner's profile
is a better team on the road.
Speaker 2: And what a good ballpark for the Mariners?
Speaker 1: A team that really is is reliant on the home
run ball, and a lot of what they do is
a lot of their run productions predicated on hitting home runs.
Couldn't ask for a better ballpark for that because the
ball will get out of this park relatively easily. But
I am just not I'm not going against the A's
until they lose, because when you have young teams go
back like what it was it four weeks ago, five
weeks ago, everyone's like, oh, Marlins, the loss is coming,
the loss is coming. What do they rattle off eight
or nine in a row? The A's and the Marlins
are very similar teams. It's all young guys. We don't
truly know. We don't really know what the ceiling of
a Nick Kurtz is yet. I mean he could be
a league MVP, like he is literally that good. Where
we don't really know the ceiling. I mean they the
A's could be sitting on like a couple of guys
that are like legitimate All Star Lawrence Butler, Kurtz, Jacob Wilson.
Speaker 2: So how do you really appropriately price this team?
Speaker 1: But if the books are going to continue to just
give you plus money with them, I feel like you
either have to take it or pass, or wait for
them to start playing poorly where you're like, Okay, they're unraveling. Now,
they're having bad at bats. Now I can go against them.
With that being said, i'd have to go with the over.
I disagree on the total here TV. I have to
go with the over because the Mariners they fit better
in this park from a run production standpoint. And even
though the A's don't hit left handed pitching particularly well,
they're hitting well right now and I think that they
get their part.
Speaker 2: So I kind of like the over here, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Brian Well, Seattle, you mentioned there were similar Seattle's pitching
staff is tremendous. The A's pitching staff is terrible. And
when you see young teams like the White Sox have
put it together some pretty good ball games. Now you
see more variance as the season goes on on. As
you pointed out, the younger of the team is the
the more ups and downs you're going to have. Unfortunately
in baseball this year, there's been a lot of ups
and a lot of winning streaks and losing streaks going
on for some of these teams, but very stricty this year,
and I can see not one there. You know, it's
a young team, as you pointed out, that is starting
to gain confidence. So yeah, I understand that, which, fy,
I'll probably sit this one out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of think I'm gonna sit it out too,
because there's a lot of great points being made here.
And that's another thing, Like we talked about a game
like Tokyo, Brandon brings up JP sears and his numbers
against the Mariners. Yeah, you can't ignore that because I'm sorry,
his numbers against the.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you can't. You know, that's that's things that
you can't ignore.
Speaker 1: And he's like the kind of guy that will like
when when he can come out and sort of has
all his stuff working, like he can give you six
innings two runs and suddenly have his team in the game.
So yeah, that's uh. But the a's profile better against
right handed pitching. They they really could like because deal
up tonight. I wouldn't be that surprised about that.
Speaker 2: So it's an.
Speaker 1: Interesting game, tough, tough one. I don't know if I'll
be involved with this one, but it's certainly a lot
of good talking points there. And yeah, that's uh, let's move.
Oh okay, five people have asked for it. I see
Sean is back today. Tigers got off the they broke
the streak. Even though Shawn on Twitter canceled the season
days ago. He said, we're on the football season. He's
on to the Lions. The season's over.
Speaker 4: Oh now, the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: And you know what, they actually very well might. This
might this might mean they could be the Super Bowl
favorite right now. I wouldn't argue with that one bit.
Brian Leonard, I don't think the season's over for the
Tigers by any means. He got off the Schneid as
Berman used to say, yesterday finally won a game. They're
fifteen games over five hundred, and they still have an
eight game lead in the division, which is Little Sisters
of the Poor, basically the rest of the the rest
of that division. None of those teams, Guardians, Royals, Twins,
White Sox are winning that division. So your Detroit Tagos
will be in the playoffs. I don't think it will
be particularly close. Do you think this is where they
sort of make their ascent back to double digit lead
and putting this division away?
Speaker 3: Yeah, That's that's the problem with being a fan, is
you get disappointed if a team doesn't play as well
as you expect them on an everyday basis, And now
they have not been playing well. But no, this season
is still in good shape for the Tigers. As long
as they've got school ball and he's healthy. This is
a team that's the best team in this division. Although
I do like some of the moves that the Royals
have been making as of late, I don't think they're
going to lose this division. Erad Rodriguez going for Arizona.
He's a lefty going against Melton for Detroit. Detroit's about
one twenty six seven favorite here total of nine to
the under Eduardo Rodriguez on the season five point five
all we are a four point three one expected one
point sixty five whip. Last two years his whip has
really hurt him once point sixty five this year, one
point five to zero the season before. What he does
good heart hit percentage eighty eighth percentile average ex velocity's
seventy first, but he's got a lot of negativity here.
Fastball velocity is not what it used to be. It's
only ninety two point zero and he throws that fastball
forty five percent of the time.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: He does have six pitches, but the slider seven percent,
curve one percent cutter is eighteen cutter change in for seamer,
and I don't like to back guys who are less
than league average in the fort seemer four seamer miles
more hour. But he is a lefty and that helps
him a little bit about that, but his numbers have
not been great. He is it's been a disappointing sign
for Arizona. Troy Mountain, coming in just his second start
for Detroit, didn't work out very well. In the first
game ten point eight Ora seven point seven to two,
expect at one point eight oh whip. I think things
would be better better for him as he goes on,
but that first start in the major leagues is always
a concern, especially if you're a righty. He does have
that nice fastball ninety seven miles an hour, and he
does throw six pitches. I mean it goes to fastball
only twenty nine percent of the time. That's something I like.
So from a pitching standpoint, I prefer the Tigers a
little bit here over Arizona. Arizona. We talked about this
last Friday, that this is a team either selling or
looking to sell, and they've already gotten rid of Naylor
and a lot of other guys are on the chopping
block for Arizona. I prefer the Detroit side here, but
I don't know enough about Melton to know how long
he's going to go. They've got a pretty good bullpen
in Detroit, so I'm leaning Detroit here, and I want
to fade Rodriguez. I don't know if they'll get their
at this line. It' a little bit higher than what
I liked, but I'm still leaning a little bit with Detroit.
Speaker 4: So I don't know much about the Meltain guy, and
I agree with Brian that Detroit's bullpen is performing quite well.
Their lineup is ranked thirty out of thirty right now.
Arizona's is ranked twenty three, But I got Eduardo Rodriguez
on a curve of thirty ranked twenty five, so not
much faith in him. So I'm definitely gonna stay away
from this game. It's too mini X factors. But I'm
going to take a minute here to say, please visit
our pages, you guys, because we always put free plays
up and we're the best baseball cappers in the world.
Go to our pages and check what we have out
for free, and check what we have for sale. Go
to the replay comment and like we would appreciate it.
Till Wager talk. You love baseball and you love our
show at him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a five percent plate tonight.
Speaker 1: Should have probably brought that up at some point, but yeah,
it's on my page. Just probably as bad of a
promo as you could possibly imagine right there. Uh, but
keep it simple. As far as this game is concerned,
I'll talk about Troy Melton. He is, he's he's well
up on my rankings as far as starters at Triple
A this year.
Speaker 2: Uh you know.
Speaker 1: And so if you want to talk about length he's got,
he's going the full It's a full start. I mean
he's pitching. He's been pitching six seven innings at Triple A.
He's not he's not out there. I mean he the
only way he's out early is if he is if
he gets knocked around. And I don't have any faith
in the Diamondbacks knocking anyone around right the second, because, uh,
that was so I I got. I lost with Arizona
on Saturday, and I could not believe how how mentally
not there they were in that game, especially after winning
the extra inning game on Friday night. I thought the
Friday night extra innings win was was what was gonna
kind of like get.
Speaker 2: The juices flowing.
Speaker 1: And they were more concerned about hugging Randall Gritschik on
Saturday in the dugout than they were about playing.
Speaker 2: A baseball game.
Speaker 1: And I mean, Yo Suarez came up at one point
with the game on the line, it's like a two
nothing game. I mean he swung at three pitches that
were not even remotely close to the strike zone.
Speaker 2: So I'll go back to Tokyo.
Speaker 1: Brandon was right about this, and I gotta I have
to go back to last week's conversation and really like
you were right, like the Diamondbacks do not look like
they're in the mental state to play a game right now,
like they're just in yesterday totally checked out. Now, I
will circle back because I do think when the dust
settles and if those young guys are up, if they've
got like Tim Tawe in the lineup, that Jordan Lawler
ever comes back, guys just hurt every year for long stretches,
then maybe you've got a little bit of a chance
to buy low with Arizona.
Speaker 2: But yeah, right now, on.
Speaker 1: All accounts, if you watched them the last really all weekend,
they won that game on Friday, won nothing.
Speaker 2: They're just not mentally there.
Speaker 1: And I'm starting to buy into maybe they're just you know,
they're checked out, they're mailing it in a little bit.
They don't know the veterans, don't know who's leaving at
this point, and you're not gonna go on the road
and beat the Tigers, especially a Tigers team that just
got smacked around by the Blue Jays for four days. Basically, yeah,
they salvaged yesterday, but they still lost that series.
Speaker 2: They lost the series before.
Speaker 1: I think you get a very motivated Tigers team on
their home field here, and this is what I've had
my eye on today. So have not played the ship,
but I'm gonna put this in the parlant. Brian Leonard,
go ahead, and then also tell me what line I
can get on this game sewn Michael.
Speaker 3: I appreciate your fandom for the Tigers, but Kerry Carpenter
went out with three with two strikeouts yesterday. They scored
ten runs without him, so I understand his value on
this team, but he did nothing yesterday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Brian, don't you just think him being in
the lineup is huge for them? Just him literally, Like
I feel like he makes that lineup turnover and everything's
better when he's in that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's definitely a good player and they need him
in the lineup, but he doesn't he doesn't play against lefties,
and he didn't do well yesterday. He's definitely somebody that
you want in the lineup, but I'm just pointing out
that he had nothing to do with them scoring ten runs.
Right now we're looking at Detroit. It did take a
little bit of money since we just spoke about it
probably about a one twenty eight favorite.
Speaker 2: No question, that works, that's what you're looking for.
Speaker 3: That's one twenty eight right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I was actually I was hoping that might
go the other way a little bit because Arizona did.
Arizona did take some money in that Pirate series on
a couple of occasions. So that's why I haven't played
it yet. I was I was kind of like hoping
that someone would come in and see underdog price, not
really know who Troy Melton is, and decide to drive
the price down. But right now, Melton's probably the more
desirable of the two pitchers, and again he is. He
is someone I've been super impressed ate with than the
miners this year. I don't put a ton of stock
into the into the Pirates start, which which was his
big league gave you not going like as planned. I
think he's gonna be fine, got it. He's a good
He's a really good pitcher. And I think in that
organization too, Hinge tends to Hinge tends to know.
Speaker 2: When a guy needs to come out. He's a he
presses the buttons as well as anyone.
Speaker 1: So I think Meltain's going to pitch well tonight, and
I'll take the Tigers for the parlay.
Speaker 2: Good good week for the parlay.
Speaker 1: Last week, we're back up, even even losing it on Friday,
We're back up plus eleven point four units on the season,
or eleven dollars and forty cents for every dollar. And
over the next twenty eight minutes we'll be locking in
two other So don't go anywhere. This will be a
three teamer by the time we get off the show.
Speaker 2: Let's move on.
Speaker 1: We had someone in the chat asking about the Giants
and if it was gonna be a bullpen game. I
don't believe. So it looks like they're gonna call up
Carson wizen Hunt to make his big league debut. Giants
last night felt like they had that one, Brian Leonard.
I thought they were gonna salvage one from the Mets,
Matt Chapman putting the team on his back, and they
just couldn't get it done. So Giants kick off a
new series here. Why am I blanking on?
Speaker 2: Who they?
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, I just had this game in my head.
I'm blanking out.
Speaker 2: Who is there?
Speaker 3: Mitch Keller?
Speaker 2: Mitch Keller, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 1: Okay, Pirates are out on the West Coast, it's Carson
wizzen Hunt, It's Mitch Keller.
Speaker 2: Kick us off, Brian Lennon.
Speaker 3: To me, San Francisco is a much better team than
Pittsburgh is. They're gone with nine. He's a lefty, like
the lefties their first month or so in major leagues
and sometimes even longer if they perform well. Right now,
current line, wizen Hunt and the Giants are about a
one thirty favorite in total of eight. That would be
a cheap line for me. Mitch Keller is a guy
who is what he is, and there's been talk about
some pretty good teams. The Mets have been in discussions
with bringing him to New York. I'd love to see
him pitch in that ballpark, although he's pitch is in
a good pitching ballpark right now in Pittsburgh. But as
good as he is, you know, the Pirates are only four.
He's four and ten in those games. He's very similar
to Schimes where they just doesn't get a lot of
run support. Comes in with a three point five to
three ear, a three point eight one expected, one point
one six whip, all pretty nice numbers. His whiff rate
is only a ten percentile though strike out right twenty six.
He's not going to blow you away in that regard,
but he doesn't walk walk a lot of batters eighty
fifth percentile, eight seventy fifth percentile. He's been pretty good
this year. Carson win Wiston hunt for the Giants have left.
He twenty four years old, six three. He pitches for
the Sacramento river Cats, same stadium as the Oakland Excuse me.
The Sacramento A's play in interesting when you take a
look at his stats, and he's highly thought of in
that organization. But he's always been a guy who just
blew past more than one strikeout para inning. Last year
he pitched, he pitched in Sacramento one hundred and thirty
five strikeouts in only one hundred and four innings. His
other seasons in the lower miners all more than one
strikeout per inning. He's been very good. Now this year
he's a little bit different. Is his era is four
point four two, which is really when you're playing in
that's in that ballpark afterc games isn't bad. But in
ninety seven eight he's only struck out eighty six batters,
but he's only walked twenty eight. Last year he walked
fifty three and only seven inning. He's more so, he's
been more of trying to get his control down. That
was probably what the management said, get your control down
and don't walk his money batters and you can get
your you can get up there. His whip is at
one thirty three, which isn't actually that bad when you
pitch in the PCL, So I'm interested in seeing him pitch.
He's a lefty. I think he'll have six success against
this Pittsburgh offense, and I think there might be some
value here on San Francisco, but they're really struggling. You
mentioned the two home runs yesterday, but the San Francisco
offense has been dead for a while. So I think
the Giants are a better team and it would not
surprise me for them to break out of this against
Pittsburgh and win a series and get on a run.
But they're not playing well right now, which makes me
very tentative about putting my money on him.
Speaker 4: So here's an interesting statistic about the Pirates. They're the
number number four under team in MLB and more than
thirty three percent of the games they've played today have
ended in a shutout either for them or against them.
So they are a team that really like unders. I
don't have confidence betting for or against a pitcher who's
making his MLB debut, because, as I've said in shows previous,
they could either go five innings shut down, or they
could get blown up for eight runs in the first inning.
We saw that with the Red sky Burns got blown out.
Now he's coming back. But I mean, you know, I
just don't really like to. It's it's kind of an
X factor for me, so I will probably stay away
from it. But I kind of like the first five
under here because it's four and a half. I feel
like doing it, but I don't really want to. The
Pirates are just such a huge underteam. I'm so tempted
to take the under. If I had confidence that the
wizen Hunt guy could could hold his ground, I would.
I would like to take an under, but haven't done
it yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I had confidence that wizard Hunt was going
to pitch, well, I'd like to take the Giants. I
haven't done it yet, and for a lot of the
same reasons. Like you know, Brian makes a good point.
He makes a good point about the difference from last
year to this year. So, like I'll just talk about
wizard Hunt for a second. He he's the guy. Like
if you look at all the pitching prospects in the
Giants organization, he is. He is their guy right now.
He's the one that they've been trying to protect. He
was the one that was having a really good season
when he got to Triple A last year and spent
almost all year at Triple A last year, and they
didn't really want to sort of force him up, you know,
because he is the Usually we talked about this off air,
Brian and I typically the top prospect, your your top
pitching prospect, you either don't want to bring up or
it's a Miseroski or Chase Burn situation where you're like fit,
we're gonna see if they can, you know, potentially come
up and then be like a like our number two,
number three starter. So the Giants have been hesitant to
bring us and Hint Hut up for that reason. I
thought we would have seen him earlier this year.
Speaker 2: And I think the.
Speaker 1: Reason we haven't goes to what Brian's saying. The strikeouts
are down, he's catching too much of the plate at
Triple A. The command's better, he's not walking anyone, but
suddenly he's he's too he's he's too much over the plate.
Batting average against is now two seventy three against him,
and he's given up some hard contact. So that would
be like, my only real concern now having him come
to the big league level is you're you're gonna you're
you're gonna get punished for making mistakes. That being said,
if there was a team that wasn't gonna punish a mistake,
it's probably the Pittsburgh player who have had one of
the lowest WRC pluses of any team in Major League
Baseball this season. So it's a tough one because I
could absolutely see him, you know, kind of hold keeping
this Pirates lineup that bay. The Pirates are not in
the PCL, which means none of these guys have seen
him at the Triple A level. I'd be far more
concerned if this was like the Giants playing let's say
the Astros or the A's or like the Rockies, like
a team that's seen him a ton, that would be
more concerning to me because the PCL, you see everyone
a bunch. There's only ten teams in the league, so
I think I think I'm okay with wizen Hunt here
based on the fact that the Pirates haven't seen him,
and the Pirates they have a hard time like punishing mistakes.
They just it's not like they hit particularly well. This
weekend sort of took two of three off Arizona, but
because Arizona didn't hit at all. So I do think
this is where the Giants snapped their losing streak. So
I like the Giants in Tokyo, Brandon, I can't put
you off that under because I think was an it
holds his own here. Yeah, and there was one other Yeah,
I forget. I thought I had one other thing to say.
But we'll move on. So we'll move on to there's
a bunch of there's a bunch of games popping up
in the chat. This is a pretty pretty solid Monday here,
Big Slates, Big Slates, the last couple of Monday Sean, Yes,
and I'll have to double check. I'm like ninety eight
percent sure. This is Carson Wizzon hunts major league debut.
And while I'm finding the next game, Victoria. Yeah, last
night it was a bullpen game for the Giants and
the starter Matt Gage Siena College, Saint. We don't get
many big leaguers out of my album on or Sienna College.
I could probably count on two hands how many guys
have made the MLB out of our school. Matt Gage
is one of them. So shout out to Matt Gage.
He did come out of the bullpen and start that
game for Arizona last night. Will Will says money is
rolling in on the Red think they win today. This
is an interesting one in Brian Leonard, I think this
is one you said there might be some rain in
the forecast we have to look for. But at any rate,
how are you seeing this one because I'm very interested
in this matchup Red Sox twins.
Speaker 3: A couple things here before we get to that one
San Francisco game tonight with Pittsburgh. From a weather standpoint,
no precipitation at all, but it is going to be cold.
It starts at sixty one, probably ends up fifty nine
for the weather part. But the winds blowing out at
sixteen miles an hour. Now, we've seen them the last
week blowing out at ten miles an hour and it
doesn't seem to matter. But sixteen is blown out pretty good.
But this is the one stadium where it could probably
blow out thirty and would make a bunch of difference.
I'd hate to be able. I hate to be a
player playing in that wind and in San Francisco. But
as for the weather in Minnesota, yes, let's get back
to that in one percent chancewerin all all way up
until seven pm. The game starts at eight, then it's
twenty four fifty five, eighty seventy nine, seventy eight, so
a lot of rain after this game starts. So I
don't think we're going to see either one of these
pitchers going very long. Temperatures starts at eighty eight and
then starts to drop about ten degrees since after that,
so that is a concern in this one. We have
got Fits against Woods Richardson and Woods Richardson and Minnesota
is about a one ten favorite right now. We're looking
at nine and a half to the under about one
point fifteen twenty fits in Woods Richardson, Fits is a
guy who very similar to a couple of other guys Dobbins,
who has looked good and then he gets hurt. And
that's the problem that Fitch has had. Now Dobbins is
out for the season, Fitch comes in four point eight
six ERA four point nine to nine expected one point
two seven whip. His numbers are better. He's than his
actual stats chase percent ninety fourth percentile, walk rates seventy ninth,
extension seventieth. His problem is he is getting hit hard
in the barrel rates in the ten percentile, in barrel
percentage thirteenth and expected the ra twentieth in hard hit percentage.
I liked him coming into the season, but because of
injuries and other guys in the rotation, he just can't
get that rhythm going. Simmey and Woods Richardson, He's pitched
much better as of late. Comes in with a four
point one four ERA four point two to three expected
one point three to seven whip. But his extension is
good in the seventieth percentile. But everything else is blue
on his deckcast pages. Ground ball rate eight percent ofle
so he gives up a lot of fly balls. Barrel
rate thirteenth, walk grate twenty third. So these are two
pitchers that I think could get hit here in Minnesota.
The problem is I don't know how long they're going
to be in this game because of the rain, and
it's tough to make decisions on a game where you
come in and you basically know they are going to
be stoppages in the game. So I prefer to bet
this game over, but without knowing the situation with who's
going to all play and the whole thing is rather
be a game that I would rather pass on. There's
a lot of other games today, as you mentioned, pretty
good Monday Card, but I don't have enough on this
one to put my own money on.
Speaker 4: So everyone go to our pages again and grab our plays.
I have an MLB play out, Brian will have one out,
Adam has a five percent, So go to our pages
and grab our plays. We also post a lot of
free plays, so go grab those as well. So the
Red Sox bats are really dead right now. I have
them ranked twenty three out of thirty, and I have
the Twins ranked slightly under fifteen out of thirty. So
the thing is the Boston bullpen is pitching really good.
I have them ranked three. So usually when I see that,
it makes me say I want to bet an under here,
but I'm exactly with Brian. There's a lot of X
factors here, so I Am not going to bet this game,
but I'll just give you my rankings for the Twins
as well. I have their bullpen ranked twenty first out
of thirty, which is not very good. Line up sixteen,
that's about where the Twins always are, very middle of
the road. I got Simeon Woods Richardson ranked fifteen, and
I don't have a ranking for Fits because he hasn't
pitched enough innings the last thirty days. So not even
going to touch this one, so go ahead at him.
Speaker 1: I'm very much in agreement with Brian. I like the over.
That's how I would play this one. I think if
you can get that juiced nine, I don't know what
the juice is on that, but I do I see
a bunch of nine and a half evens, which if
you're at the some of the other shops, like the
League US based ones will give you that nine maybe
like over nine minus one twenty five. I definitely think
that's a good bet. Brian makes a good point about
the rain. You have to maybe worry about them being
taken out Tokyo. Brandon points out the Red Sox offense
hasn't done much well. What do you expect their last
ten games or their last nine games at Chicago at
Cubs at Phillies and then Dodgers at home, Like you
want to talk about a nine game stretch that might
kill your offense a little bit. Basically, just played the
three best teams in baseball, or three of three of
the top five or six teams. So now now you're
gonna get Simeon Woods Richardson. That should be a field day.
Because Simeon Woods Richardson is not a a top caliber
MLB starter. Brian pointed out some of the Yeah, I
mean he doesn't give up.
Speaker 2: He doesn't. He gives up a lot of fly balls,
a lot of age. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And and the thing is, I was I was high
on him two years ago or a year ago, but
now like he's got a big enough sample at the
big league level, he's He's only a guy I really care.
Speaker 2: I'm really interested in fading.
Speaker 1: So I fully expect the Red Sox to hit better
in this series, just based on the fact, you know,
they're not going to be up against like big time aces.
And then for the Twins, like their top top relievers
are very strong, but there is some some chances for
offense in the middle of that. Twins bullpen so to
comment on the rain situation, well, if Simeon Wentz Richardson
is out early here, I still think the Red Sox
maybe can generate some offense until you get to the
guys like the Johanna Rans Griffin Jacks. You know, that's
the tough part of the Twins bullpen. On the other side, Listen,
Richard Fitz like he he does have some redeeming qualities
to gets some swing and miss, But my gut tells
me he's gonna trend toward being a Simon Wood Richardson
at the big league level. I just don't have like
super high hopes for him. He's not someone that ever
really popped for me at Triple A and then all
of a sudden he was kind of in the big leagues.
I'm sure sure the Red Sox know more about that
than me, but like, I just I've watched him pitching
off at Worcester and then in the few big league
starts the last couple of years were like I just,
he's just not like overly like, I don't have him
super highly rated. So the Twins who lose yesterday to
the Nationals, you'd like to think they can bounce back
a little bit from Matt. I think this one gets
to nine. I mean, you're talking about eating four each way.
If you can get that juice to nine, I gotta
like the total right there. Very much agreeing with Brian.
I think there's gonna be offense. All right, let's keep
it going. Titan CT Yeah, bad weather in Minneapolis. Yeah,
maybe the game doesn't even get in.
Speaker 2: I thought, I.
Speaker 1: Thought, I saw that they would probably get the game in.
But who knows, Dan Zone, I don't think the Yankees
are even gonna make the playoffs. To be honest with you, well,
you echo the sentiment of every Yankee fan who's melting
down this weekend. I know this firsthand because my Siena
college group chat is full of them all myt with
the exception of a couple of Mets fans, like basically
everyone that went to Siena either lived in the Capitol
region like me, or came up from like Long Island,
New York City, Westchester. So they're all Yankee fans, some
Met fans. My group chat Leans Yankees, Brian Leonard and
of the thirteen or fourteen of us that are in
there that are all college buddies, and the melting down
was was really starting over the weekend from the time
that they traded for Brian McMahon to you know, through
that game on Sunday, the meltdown was happening. I don't know, Brian,
Is the Yankee season over? Do they just bounce back
here against the Rays?
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Well, other seasons are not over. But you do have
some concerns about Judge. Initial reports were saying that he
may be up for the season. Now they're looking at it.
He's looking for other other ways to deal that. But yeah,
when you lose the best pure hitter in baseball, that
is a concern. Plus some of the other guys. You know,
you take a look at that lineup, it's pretty weak
when you get out of the top five or six guys.
So that is a concern. And they really wanted Suarez
and they didn't get them the Arizona, which just asked
it for too much, so they had to settle for
a Colorado Rocky. And anytime you trade for a Rocky
and you have to be concerned. Now, he's got off
to a pretty good start for the Yankees, but half
your stats are in Colorado and he's been in Colorado
for a long time. So yeah, the Yankees it's not
going as well as the Yankee fans would like going
against Rasmussen against Slitter, and I don't want to say
Schlitter again because I know I'm gonna screw it up.
But the Yankees are about a one to twenty eight
favorite here. Total of eight and a half has gone
down from it was at nine for the opener, So
money's coming on the under here. Rasa. They decided to
keep him in the rotation. I think they pulled him
a little early last time, but he comes in with
a two point nine three ERA three point six one
expected one point h three whip. He is a really
underrated pitcher overall, but you don't know how many innings
you're gonna get out of him today. Last three years
is eras two point nine three, two point eight three
two point sixty two and six seasons two point nine
five ERA one point oh five whip. Because of his
injuries and because he doesn't wreck up a lot of innings.
You know, this year is at ninety five, last year
is at twenty eight. The year before forty four, which
is why they've been pulling him early, and they don't
want him to get hurt. But when he pitches. He's great,
and he's pitching today, so I like the situation with
him going against this diminished Yankees offense. Round Bowl percentage
eighty seventh percentile, which is something you always have to
keep in mind when you're playing in the Yankee stadium.
The barrel rate eighty five percentile, wall grade eightieth. I
really like Rasmussen when you take a look at the Yankees.
They're going with Schlider, as I mentioned, and he's had
limited inning so far. He's only pitched ten innings. He
got his ten strikeouts, but four point three five ERA,
three point four eight expected, one point five to five
whip fastball velocity ninety fourth percentile. He's very good in
that regard, ninety seven point eight percent on his four seemer,
but he does throw it fifty two percent of the time.
He may have a good enough fastball to get away
with that because he's so young at twenty four, but
as he goes on, he needs to develop his other
pitches a little bit better. He's got five pitches, but
slider he throws twenty eight percent of the time. I
kind of like Toronto, or excuse me, Tampa Bay in
this game. In fact, I think I'm gonna use that
as my my parlay piece right here. It's just that
I don't really see anything jumping out at me today,
and I know the Yankees offense is taking a big
hit without have and without haveing judge in there. So
let's play Tampa Bay is my parlay here. We're looking
at let's go one thirteen plus one thirteen here at
Tampa Bay on the road. Hopefully you know this is
one of those teams that there is the season's going on,
they've been a really good hitting team or a terrible
hitting team. I like the coaching in Tampa Bay. I
think it's much better than I've been never to like
going as a coach for the Yankees. So let's go
Tampa Bay here at plus yeah plus one thirteen will
be my part of the parlay.
Speaker 2: So I was.
Speaker 4: Gonna make this game my parlay piece, but a different
direction than Brian. But I don't think we can use
the same game in the parlay. But I was gonna
go Yankees team total under four and a half. But
I have another backup, so don't worry about that. But
I totally agree with Brian's sentiments here on Rasmussen and actually, Brian,
his name is more difficult than you're actually saying it.
His name is actually Schlitler, so there's an extra l
in there to even make it more tongue twisting and
more dangerous to say on air. So yeah, if you'll
excuse me, I have to go to the Schlitzler for
a minute. How's that sound anyways? Yeah, I was gonna
use the Yankees because without Judge there, they're hitting towards
the bottom of the rankings in MLB. I know they
did beat the Phillies, but they're they're ranking less than
twenty out of thirty teams. Rasmussen, as you said, he
sometimes gets pulled early, but they have a pretty good
bullpen there. My only concern is the Yankees play really
good at home or really well at home? Shall I say?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 4: That concerns me for the Yankees teams total, But that
would be the only way I would go here. Uh yeah,
even Tampa Bay to win or the Yankees team total
under would be how I would go. But I do
have a different game for my parlay, which which we'll
bring up in a minute.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be quick on this one. I don't disagree
with Brian. I don't have much of a play. I
realize we're like five minutes away from the end of
the show, and I want to give TV's game like the.
Speaker 2: Full the full rub.
Speaker 1: So all, I'm gonna say to the initial poster that
we we brought up the original question. I don't think
the Yankees are gonna have any trouble making the playoffs
more and and it's more. It's it's not a pro
Yankee statement. I just don't see how three teams catch them.
Because now, if they were in the National League, yeah,
they might be in trouble. But right now, like, are
the Red Sox, Mariners, and Rangers all gonna chase them down?
I guess you could throw the Rays in the mix
there too. No, like this just not happened. I'd be shocked.
I would be absolutely shocked. And this comes from someone
at the beginning of the season gave out on a
couple of shows the Yankees to not make the playoffs.
I think it was like plus two to eighty or something.
I'd love to see it happen. I just don't think
that there's there's three teams like Titan CT says the
Red Sox are coming. Yeah, someone might catch them for
that top wildcard spot. But now that you've got three
teams that make the wildcard, I will be very surprised
if someone catches them.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, right, Well, the Yankees right now are five
forty three win percentage, with Judge red Sox five thirty three.
We've got Seattle in second place of five twenty eight
and the Rangers of five to twenty eight. I like
their starting pitchers for the for the Mariners and the
Rangers a lot better. I'm not I'm in agreement. I
don't think the Yankees unless they go out in free
agency and make some big grades, I don't think the
Yankees will make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I'd love to see it happen. It
would it would make that futures that from the beginning
of the season a winner. But feel like they just
find a way to turn it on. And then this
is coming from someone that can't stand this team. I'm
very anti Like I've never been a Yankee fan, so like,
you know, having to listen to like all the buddies
chirp about how great they are. I love nothing more
than to see the Yankees miss the playoffs. Tokyo, Brandon,
what game are we closing the show out with?
Speaker 4: Okay, let's close it with the Blue Jays and Orioles.
We've got Oh, do you want to start, Brian? Or
should I just go no?
Speaker 2: No, you just go ahead.
Speaker 4: Okay, So we got basket going against Eflyn. I don't
have enough numbers on Eflyn, but I do know that
I don't really like him very much, like I like
the Blue Jays here, and I think the line is
somewhere around one twenty five. No way this team should be.
The books are sliding the Blue Jays so much, and
like you guys are talking about the Yankees might not
make the playoffs, the Blue Jays are the main reason
they might not make the playoffs because they're probably going
to take this division and the Red are probably going
to be number two. So that's how it's looking to
be right now. But you know, anything can happen. Judge
is probably going to come back next week, so they
put him on the ten day, right, and then Boone's
already talking about when he comes back, he's going to
be a DH and not play the field. So I
think Judge will be back sooner than later. But anyway,
back to this game, Bassett worries me on the road,
and actually he doesn't have really good numbers against these Orioles.
So there's a couple of red flags. But the Orioles
bullpen is so bad, and Toronto is just smashing the ball.
They're just on fire, and their bullpen is top three
right now. I got Bassett ranked twelve out of thirty
on a curve of thirty starting pitchers. I do realize
that he hasn't performed well against the Orioles and he's
not a good road pitcher, but I think he's still
better than Eflyn and no other way I could go
than the Blue Jays.
Speaker 3: Here the number on this right now Toronto is only
a one oh five favorite. It's more it's like a
pick him right now, so you can get a good
number there. My question, and you do the head to
head Capline has been uh faced Toronto a lot in
his career. What is the career numbers against Zach Eflin
for Toronto?
Speaker 4: They're not listed. I can't find him anymore, Okay, all right, Yeah,
I don't know. He is the only answer, but I
know he's not a very good picture.
Speaker 3: Well, he was hurt and he came back from injury
and pitched pretty well in his first game back. I
do like Athleen. He's not a big strikeout guy, but
you usually get pretty good value when you play those
kind of guys, and I was just curious against Toronto
what you have done. I don't I don't use that
value by myself, but just but yeah, the price on Toronto,
considering how hot they are, is pretty cheap. Sometimes that
tells you something, and that's why I'm always worried.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Blue Jays are decent team on the road. I
think they're twenty six and twenty six where actually the
Orioles are twenty four and twenty six at home, so
home away doesn't really factor into it as far as
I'm concerned. So yeah, I mean the way they're hitting
and the way their bullpenner is performing, I couldn't go
any other way. Really.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to just go back to the comment
from Slick Vic here Yankees. He's saying Yankees are plus
four hundred that missed the playoffs. I think that's a
great bet. I did not realize that. I did not
realize that the Yankees were like that. That bet was
that was priced like that because prior to the season,
it was like plus two to eighty, which I thought
was a really good bet coming into the season. The
fact that you can get Yankees plus four hundred now
pretty much knowing they're not going to win their division, Like,
I'm sorry, they're just not catching the Blue Jays.
Speaker 2: I don't think they are great bet.
Speaker 1: Yankees plus four hundred miss the playoffs is a very
good vet at the price point TV. Sorry reading your
parlay leg with the with the price again so I
can do it would be the.
Speaker 4: Blue Jays money line at minus one.
Speaker 2: Oh five minus one oh five.
Speaker 3: In regards to the judge coming back, I mean, he's
he's a good defensive player too. He's got a gun
and he obviously without him in right field, that's gonna
hurt them defensively. Obviously you're worried about his bat being
in the lineup, but he's he's got one of the
best guns in uh major League Baseball.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I gotta I gotta be when so I
I looked at the the the original poster, I gotta like, no,
that that was a very valid comment. I think I
just looked at the standings and I said, Okay, are
these three teams, these four teams really gonna jump them,
Like I saw the Guardians creeping into the mix.
Speaker 2: Sorry, Brian, they're not making the playoffs.
Speaker 1: So I was just like, man, like three or four
teams are gonna have to play good ball to jump them.
But that's it's possible. I mean four to one, that
is crazy. I would have thought it was more like
like plus one fifty. I would have thought my preseason
number on that was better than the number now. So
the fact that they're going to give you four to
one is is crazy. With how close Yeah, slick, slick thick,
I think he was the one that brought it up
or one of the people that chimed in with how
close the wild card is right now. The only reason
I'm harping on it is I think that's like probably
the best bet I've given out on the show so
far today. Like, if you have the means to that
futures or you have credit a credit account, you can
get that down on like confidently, and you can get
four to one on the Yankees to miss the playoffs.
That is a fantastic bet. Okay, we are at the
end of the show. We've got to read off the parlay.
Very simple today Boys. Three sides, Let's get it home.
Three sides plus six forty. That's actually really good. Brian
helping out with the odds. The Rays plus one thirteen,
I got a root that we're definitely rooting for that.
I'm gonna be going to look to add to the
Yankee Samiss playoffs bet as soon as we got off
the show, so hopefully his Rays get it done today
plus one thirteen.
Speaker 2: Tokyo.
Speaker 1: Brandon is on the Blue Jays minus one oh five,
and it's it's the Tigers for me. I think I'm
gonna become like the newest Tigers fan now because I
feel like the market's abandoned them. So I'm with Sean
in the chat. I'm very pro Tigers, at least for
the foreseeable future. So once again, three sides Tigers. Jay's
Rays that three teamers plus six forty.
Speaker 2: So let's start the week off with a parlay.
Speaker 1: Win had a good week with the parlays last week,
hit two of them, so hopefully we're hitting here. Head
on over to the wager Talk YouTube channel if you
want to catch the replay, but also to drop a
like and subscribe on the page. We appreciate it and
a communist Tokyo. Brandon said, we appreciate it. It helps grow,
It helps us grow the show. I've got a five
percenter Tonight, the boys have plays up. You can find
all of that at wagertalk dot com and you can
find us back here tomorrow morning, nine am for another
episode of Total Basis.
Speaker 2: Have a great day. Everyone will see you guys tomorrow