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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home

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<v Speaker 1>for cryptocurrency news and the interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.

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<v Speaker 1>On your way in. Please at that subscribe button as

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<v Speaker 1>well as the thumbsup button and leave a common below.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify

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<v Speaker 1>or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, Apologies,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm getting this out late to you. It's been a

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<v Speaker 1>crazy day, both for the markets but also personally, like

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<v Speaker 1>my father in law had to go to the er,

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<v Speaker 1>get surgery and all these things. So lot's happening on

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<v Speaker 1>the family side. But man, bitcoin was in free fall today.

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<v Speaker 1>It's bloody out there. So let's look at the chart.

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<v Speaker 1>So bitcoin at the time we're recording at sixty four,

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred and sixty eight dollars. Today it wiked down

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<v Speaker 1>to below sixty k, so eighties. Bloody out there. But guys,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if we put the emotions and did the

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<v Speaker 1>pression and the anxiety and the uncertainty to decide, and

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<v Speaker 1>you just look at the chart, we are so over sold.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's crazy. We're at levels even worse than

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<v Speaker 1>like COVID and FTX and so forth. And it's not

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<v Speaker 1>like there were some major catalysts like an FTX, like

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<v Speaker 1>a COVID. Right, those are shock factors that have big

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<v Speaker 1>mainstream narratives and news cycles and affect people in different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>None of that happened. Obviously. October tenth, we had that

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<v Speaker 1>liquidation event when Trump tweeted out about the one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent terrorists on China. He obviously reverted on that, but

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<v Speaker 1>it caused some sort of cascading effect that has been

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<v Speaker 1>going down and down and down at bigcoin is falling

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<v Speaker 1>so fast. I mean, I don't think I've ever seen

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<v Speaker 1>it fall that fast outside of a black swan event, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And look, some people are saying, maybe it's the Epstein

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<v Speaker 1>file release that is the catalyst the black swan. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, it doesn't seem that way. Maybe that's just

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<v Speaker 1>the cover story. But there's some manipulation here, you know that.

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<v Speaker 1>Look the markets right now, based on the economy and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth, retail is not really here. So let's just

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<v Speaker 1>wrap it, right. It could be simple as that, And

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<v Speaker 1>again the cover story could be whatever it is. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is Big one's largest one day drop

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<v Speaker 1>in history, down nearly ten thousand dollars and still dropping

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<v Speaker 1>like a stone. Joe CONSORTI said here, and he said,

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<v Speaker 1>it's starting to smell like capitulation. So guys, we are

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<v Speaker 1>in extreme oversold territory, even on the weekly chart. So

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<v Speaker 1>all these things are looking like a relief rally. Something,

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of bounce is going to come. Because markets

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<v Speaker 1>don't go in the same direction forever. Right there is

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<v Speaker 1>a point of exhaustion for the sellers, and you have

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<v Speaker 1>a contrary move to the herd because everybody's bearish right now, everybody.

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<v Speaker 1>There's not one bull left, and I think it's safe

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<v Speaker 1>to say we are in a bear market. And all

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<v Speaker 1>the levels we were looking at have been invalidated, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the thesis and much more so. It is

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<v Speaker 1>what it is, folks. This is the market. So let

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<v Speaker 1>me sure some other things here. The bitcoin two week

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<v Speaker 1>RSI is the most oversold in HISS. In addition, we

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<v Speaker 1>are so over sold it's worse than the FTX crash,

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID crash, the lunar crash, even the October ten

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<v Speaker 1>crash which started all of this. So it is wild, guys.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm expecting some sort of reversal. Now it's funny.

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<v Speaker 1>I was looking at this data from Santiment over the

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<v Speaker 1>past week, as you know, the market was starting to

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<v Speaker 1>correct and so forth, and I saw the whales started

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<v Speaker 1>distributing the Whale wallet data, which was in accumulation for

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<v Speaker 1>a good amount of time. They started dumping and retail

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<v Speaker 1>started picking up. And that is a clear sign. That

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<v Speaker 1>is a clear sign that the whales are like, ahh,

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<v Speaker 1>we're out of here. So that's where this fores selling

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<v Speaker 1>I think, is you know, the whales just saying, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we're giving up on the market until this whole thing

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<v Speaker 1>resets and there's more capitulation. Because throughout Bitcoin's history and

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<v Speaker 1>just alone in this cycle, we've seen that when the

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<v Speaker 1>opposite is happening, when retail's giving up and their wallets

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<v Speaker 1>are going down, that's when the whales start buying and

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<v Speaker 1>then they pump the markets. Well, over the past a

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<v Speaker 1>couple months or so, that has not been happening, and

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<v Speaker 1>retail has been picking up. A lot of people have

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<v Speaker 1>been you know, buying and still believing. And the whales,

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<v Speaker 1>while they started accumulating, I think they noticed, well, the

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<v Speaker 1>retail is not capitulating, we're going to do the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>So the data shows that and it's some sentiment. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>Me and Brian from Santiman have covered this in the

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<v Speaker 1>most recent episodes of the dichotomy between you know, these

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<v Speaker 1>two Wallea types and how that affects the markets. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, as mentioned, I believe some sort of relief

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<v Speaker 1>rallies coming. How high we go? I don't know, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>and even Capo, the master of the Bears, the guy

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<v Speaker 1>who's often bearished a lot. He's saying, look, main support zone,

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<v Speaker 1>reach and confluence. In regards to the twenty twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>highs and all that jazz. He says, lots of liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>above and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative.

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<v Speaker 1>We're in extreme fear again, depression and much more so.

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<v Speaker 1>Some sort of relief rallies coming here again doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>that we are in a bull market. Is just a

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<v Speaker 1>relief rally and Bitcoin could go lower. But obviously, timeline wise,

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<v Speaker 1>the Fourier cycle played out to a tee. It just

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<v Speaker 1>it had different characteristics. No your foric blow off top,

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<v Speaker 1>no all season right. You did not see the common

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<v Speaker 1>things that we saw in the past, and that could

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<v Speaker 1>mean that in this cycle we saw the law of

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<v Speaker 1>diminishing returns play out here for bitcoin, So could that

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<v Speaker 1>be reflected in the downside as well, that you had

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<v Speaker 1>diminished returns to the upside, but also you might get

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<v Speaker 1>less volatility to the downside, right, I think that's plausible.

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<v Speaker 1>And look, you're gonna see bears are going to do

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<v Speaker 1>their victory lap and saying hah, I told you and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth, and we're going to ten k and they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to say all types of outlandish things. But again,

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<v Speaker 1>if you didn't have the same type of upside we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen in the past, I don't believe you're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>eighty ninety percent draw down, honestly, but I could be wrong. Look, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't have a crystal ball, but if you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the things we're seeing are very different than the previous

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<v Speaker 1>cycles with bloff tops, euphoria, retail all season, and much more. So.

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<v Speaker 1>What's my strategy, guys. I'm gonna look to take a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of profits if we have some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>relief rally, you know, maybe bitcoin goes back to one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred k, so we take some profits there. But I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not liquidating everything. I've often stated that I'm not in

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<v Speaker 1>a position where I need the money. Some of you

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<v Speaker 1>may be right and you may have to liquidate more.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just you know, sharing my opinion and what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>with me. But I will take a little bit off

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<v Speaker 1>the table, and I plan to buy the all coin

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<v Speaker 1>dips as we go lower. So buy the blood in

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<v Speaker 1>the streets, right. Obviously, that's not financial advice. Do your

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<v Speaker 1>own research, do what's best for you. I'm just saying

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<v Speaker 1>what has worked for me, you know, is buying those lows.

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<v Speaker 1>So for example, I was buying the FTX crash in

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<v Speaker 1>November and December. You guys may recall I posted the

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<v Speaker 1>receipts of those purchases a Bitcoin and other all coins,

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<v Speaker 1>So my portfolio based on those entry prices is up

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm gonna look to take some profits, but I'm

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<v Speaker 1>still holding the majority of my bag for the next

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<v Speaker 1>bull market. So I've often stated we got to have

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<v Speaker 1>a macro view, and that's the approach I'm taking. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>you are free to do whatever you want. I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>sharing my opinion and playing the cycles accordingly. Obviously, this

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<v Speaker 1>cycle did not turn out to how we expected it,

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<v Speaker 1>even with ETFs, all coin ETFs, even with the Genius

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<v Speaker 1>Act passing, and of course we didn't get the crypto

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<v Speaker 1>market structure, and I've often stated that I think Trump

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<v Speaker 1>launching the meme coins kind of hurt us, even though

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<v Speaker 1>you know, overall I think he's been net positive, but

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<v Speaker 1>that that kind of stole the all season. Not to mention,

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<v Speaker 1>it alienated a lot of people who are let's say

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<v Speaker 1>on the Democrat side, right, who may have been interested

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<v Speaker 1>in crypto and was like, wait a minute, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to get involved with Donald Trump's involved in this. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>that's how human behaviors and the nature of politics works, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that hurt us. I think that a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of the tariff stuff hurt us as well. And overall, economically,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, people didn't have as much money to just

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<v Speaker 1>go buy a bunch of all coins, and then you

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<v Speaker 1>had competing markets such as AI taking away a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of liquidity and things like that. So the cycle was

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<v Speaker 1>different a bit rough, right, But like I said, I

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<v Speaker 1>got the macro view. Crypto is getting the most adoption

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<v Speaker 1>we've ever seen in history of this acid class and industry,

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<v Speaker 1>with huge institutions, you know, getting involved, and I do

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<v Speaker 1>believe once they are fully positioned, once the market structure

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<v Speaker 1>has passed, they're gonna pump the hell out of it.

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<v Speaker 1>I think now they're just dipping their toes in the

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<v Speaker 1>water and they need full clarities. Know this is how

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<v Speaker 1>this cycle ends, which man just disappointing and brutal as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's fores selling right. Here's what Benjamin Cohen,

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<v Speaker 1>he has a huge following, huge YouTube channel to check

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<v Speaker 1>him out. He said, one common pattern in midterm years

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<v Speaker 1>for bitcoin is that we see a lot of weakness

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<v Speaker 1>going into early February, followed by strength into March, then

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<v Speaker 1>weakness again going into April slash May. Doesn't mean it

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<v Speaker 1>plays out exactly like that, but I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>given how oversold we are, given the sentiment, I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna see a bound, some sort of relief rally.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think he's right. February is maybe where we

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<v Speaker 1>have the bottoming out. We started climbing out the hole,

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<v Speaker 1>do a relief rally, and then like you said, here

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<v Speaker 1>it come April May, we start dumping down to lower lows. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's certainly certainly possible. Now even the ETFs are taking

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<v Speaker 1>a big hit, so black Rock Spot Bitcoin ETF posts

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<v Speaker 1>ten billion dollars daily volume record, as bitcoin records maj

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<v Speaker 1>Intra dated the clock. Now, you would want this record

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<v Speaker 1>to be broken on the upside when we're pumping. Unfortunately

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<v Speaker 1>it's broken on the downside with a lot of outflows.

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<v Speaker 1>So everybody is taking a beating here. Guys. It is

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<v Speaker 1>brutal out there, man. But you know this is where

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<v Speaker 1>again you don't want to catch a falling knife. But

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<v Speaker 1>when there's blood on the streets, when everybody's afraid, this

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<v Speaker 1>is the time. It is the big contrarian move. Warren

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<v Speaker 1>Buffett has talked about it. But the masses, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they'll see this and start panic selling again. If you

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<v Speaker 1>need the money, you need to exit the market, and yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you do what you got to do, But I'm talking

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<v Speaker 1>about if you don't necessarily need the money now, like

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's not some emergency or whatever, and you

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<v Speaker 1>don't have a long term view. You're just jumping in

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<v Speaker 1>and out of pumps and dumps right then, you're just

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<v Speaker 1>moving by the emotions in the market. You're doing it wrong, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's tough out there, and guys, obviously you

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<v Speaker 1>know there's a lot of controversy around bind It's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of fud and in fact people have been withdrawing

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<v Speaker 1>their funds from Binance, So I would be careful with

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<v Speaker 1>some of the exchanges. You know, we don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to halt withdrawals. Even Binance had to temporarily

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<v Speaker 1>halt withdrawals. They had a temporary disruption, So just be

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<v Speaker 1>careful out there. There's reports coming out on different sources.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is why I'm a big believer in self custody.

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<v Speaker 1>I've been talking about it for years. So I custody

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<v Speaker 1>the majority of my crypto assets on hardware wallets, and

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<v Speaker 1>specifically I use Treasure. You know, they make great will

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<v Speaker 1>hardware wallets to make, which makes it easy for you

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<v Speaker 1>to custody. So I've been a user of the Treasure

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<v Speaker 1>Save five and Save seven and Treasure. They've been around

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<v Speaker 1>for years. They started this, guys, they started it back

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty thirteen. They created the hardware wallets and the

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<v Speaker 1>seed phrase setup. Their hardware wallets are open source. That's

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<v Speaker 1>how much they trust the code and folks. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>they support all the major coins such as Bitcoin, Etherorem, Salona, XRP,

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<v Speaker 1>and much more, even new tokens, and they have a

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<v Speaker 1>big discount starting today, it's a Valentine's Day Special up

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty percent off until February fifteen, so make sure

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<v Speaker 1>you check it out. You can get the devices at

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<v Speaker 1>a discount, and it's an easy way and safe way

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<v Speaker 1>to just custody your assets and you'll be able to

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<v Speaker 1>sleep at night, especially if you have the long term

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<v Speaker 1>view and you are looking at you know, storing your

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<v Speaker 1>assets safely. You don't have to worry about exchange problems

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<v Speaker 1>or halting or withdraws and all these things because you

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<v Speaker 1>never know when those things can happen, especially when you

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<v Speaker 1>have you know, the kind of the assets dumping at

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<v Speaker 1>this rate and people are panicking and they're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>get their you know, stuff off the exchanges, it could

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<v Speaker 1>cause problems. So anyway, check out Treasure again. They got

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<v Speaker 1>the Valentine's Day special going on so you can grab

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<v Speaker 1>some devices. I'm a user once again and a believer

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<v Speaker 1>in this product and it's pretty great. And they have

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<v Speaker 1>the new version, the Treasure Saved seven, which is quantum

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<v Speaker 1>ready and much more. So check it out. All the

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<v Speaker 1>links will be in the description. Now I want to

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<v Speaker 1>share what Mike Belshie had to say. He's the CEO Bitgo.

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<v Speaker 1>They just went public and bit goes one of the

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<v Speaker 1>top crypto custodians in the market, and Mike is a

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<v Speaker 1>crypto og and he was building in Web one and

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<v Speaker 1>Web two point zero as well, So he tweeted out,

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<v Speaker 1>this is my fifth major crypto crash. If it's your first,

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<v Speaker 1>I know it feels devastating, but nothing about bitcoins value

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<v Speaker 1>proposition changed in the last thirty days. The infrastructure got better,

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<v Speaker 1>the adoption grew, real use cases have emerged from payments

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<v Speaker 1>with stable coins to tokenize equities. Crypto will come back stronger.

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<v Speaker 1>So absolutely agree with this, but you know, in the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>in the emotions and everything that's going on, it's tough, right.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm avoiding looking at my portfolio, guys. And again I've

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<v Speaker 1>been here since twenty sixteen, so I am certainly not

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<v Speaker 1>immune from the emotions that come. But I tried to.

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<v Speaker 1>But I've learned to master that in the sense of

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<v Speaker 1>not panicking and then looking at, okay, where where can

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<v Speaker 1>I take entries or get entries at, you know, with

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<v Speaker 1>some of these coins. And then final news item, get guys,

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<v Speaker 1>Anchorage Digital, which is actually a competitor bit go. They

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<v Speaker 1>have announced a one hundred million dollar strategic equity investment

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<v Speaker 1>from Tether, implying a valuation of four point two billion dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>so they may get or go try to go public

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<v Speaker 1>at some point. Diogo Monica, who's the co founder anchor,

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<v Speaker 1>has said, even more exciting is the fact that these

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred million dollars are being used for the first

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<v Speaker 1>ever employee tender offer, providing liquidity to long tenured team

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<v Speaker 1>members who have helped build a company over nearly a decade.

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<v Speaker 1>So very very interesting. Let's continue to see how this

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<v Speaker 1>market pans out in the coming days and weeks. Like

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<v Speaker 1>I said, we are so over sold, so I believe

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of relief is coming, but the thesis of

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<v Speaker 1>the bull market continuing that is done. We are in

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<v Speaker 1>a bear market, guys. The structure has broken. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty brutal, pretty tough out there, and I would love

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<v Speaker 1>to hear what you guys think. I know I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>hear it from the bears in the comment section doing

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<v Speaker 1>their victory laps, and by all means, go ahead, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>But remember markets are cyclical, right Bulls won't last forever,

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<v Speaker 1>Bears don't last forever, so the bulls will return, But

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<v Speaker 1>right now, it's the bear show. All right, guys, be

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<v Speaker 1>sure to support the podcast by subscribing to my free

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<v Speaker 1>email newsletter. Grab a copy of my book on Amazon.

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<v Speaker 1>It's available on paperback in digital, and check out my

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<v Speaker 1>course at mycryptocurse dot com. Folks, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>to you all later