Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and the interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 1: I'm getting this out late to you. It's been a
Speaker 1: crazy day, both for the markets but also personally, like
Speaker 1: my father in law had to go to the er,
Speaker 1: get surgery and all these things. So lot's happening on
Speaker 1: the family side. But man, bitcoin was in free fall today.
Speaker 1: It's bloody out there. So let's look at the chart.
Speaker 1: So bitcoin at the time we're recording at sixty four,
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty eight dollars. Today it wiked down
Speaker 1: to below sixty k, so eighties. Bloody out there. But guys,
Speaker 1: you know, if we put the emotions and did the
Speaker 1: pression and the anxiety and the uncertainty to decide, and
Speaker 1: you just look at the chart, we are so over sold.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's crazy. We're at levels even worse than
Speaker 1: like COVID and FTX and so forth. And it's not
Speaker 1: like there were some major catalysts like an FTX, like
Speaker 1: a COVID. Right, those are shock factors that have big
Speaker 1: mainstream narratives and news cycles and affect people in different ways.
Speaker 1: None of that happened. Obviously. October tenth, we had that
Speaker 1: liquidation event when Trump tweeted out about the one hundred
Speaker 1: percent terrorists on China. He obviously reverted on that, but
Speaker 1: it caused some sort of cascading effect that has been
Speaker 1: going down and down and down at bigcoin is falling
Speaker 1: so fast. I mean, I don't think I've ever seen
Speaker 1: it fall that fast outside of a black swan event, right,
Speaker 1: And look, some people are saying, maybe it's the Epstein
Speaker 1: file release that is the catalyst the black swan. I
Speaker 1: don't know, it doesn't seem that way. Maybe that's just
Speaker 1: the cover story. But there's some manipulation here, you know that.
Speaker 1: Look the markets right now, based on the economy and
Speaker 1: so forth, retail is not really here. So let's just
Speaker 1: wrap it, right. It could be simple as that, And
Speaker 1: again the cover story could be whatever it is. But
Speaker 1: you know, this is Big one's largest one day drop
Speaker 1: in history, down nearly ten thousand dollars and still dropping
Speaker 1: like a stone. Joe CONSORTI said here, and he said,
Speaker 1: it's starting to smell like capitulation. So guys, we are
Speaker 1: in extreme oversold territory, even on the weekly chart. So
Speaker 1: all these things are looking like a relief rally. Something,
Speaker 1: some sort of bounce is going to come. Because markets
Speaker 1: don't go in the same direction forever. Right there is
Speaker 1: a point of exhaustion for the sellers, and you have
Speaker 1: a contrary move to the herd because everybody's bearish right now, everybody.
Speaker 1: There's not one bull left, and I think it's safe
Speaker 1: to say we are in a bear market. And all
Speaker 1: the levels we were looking at have been invalidated, a
Speaker 1: lot of the thesis and much more so. It is
Speaker 1: what it is, folks. This is the market. So let
Speaker 1: me sure some other things here. The bitcoin two week
Speaker 1: RSI is the most oversold in HISS. In addition, we
Speaker 1: are so over sold it's worse than the FTX crash,
Speaker 1: the COVID crash, the lunar crash, even the October ten
Speaker 1: crash which started all of this. So it is wild, guys.
Speaker 1: So I'm expecting some sort of reversal. Now it's funny.
Speaker 1: I was looking at this data from Santiment over the
Speaker 1: past week, as you know, the market was starting to
Speaker 1: correct and so forth, and I saw the whales started
Speaker 1: distributing the Whale wallet data, which was in accumulation for
Speaker 1: a good amount of time. They started dumping and retail
Speaker 1: started picking up. And that is a clear sign. That
Speaker 1: is a clear sign that the whales are like, ahh,
Speaker 1: we're out of here. So that's where this fores selling
Speaker 1: I think, is you know, the whales just saying, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're giving up on the market until this whole thing
Speaker 1: resets and there's more capitulation. Because throughout Bitcoin's history and
Speaker 1: just alone in this cycle, we've seen that when the
Speaker 1: opposite is happening, when retail's giving up and their wallets
Speaker 1: are going down, that's when the whales start buying and
Speaker 1: then they pump the markets. Well, over the past a
Speaker 1: couple months or so, that has not been happening, and
Speaker 1: retail has been picking up. A lot of people have
Speaker 1: been you know, buying and still believing. And the whales,
Speaker 1: while they started accumulating, I think they noticed, well, the
Speaker 1: retail is not capitulating, we're going to do the opposite.
Speaker 1: So the data shows that and it's some sentiment. You know,
Speaker 1: Me and Brian from Santiman have covered this in the
Speaker 1: most recent episodes of the dichotomy between you know, these
Speaker 1: two Wallea types and how that affects the markets. Now,
Speaker 1: you know, as mentioned, I believe some sort of relief
Speaker 1: rallies coming. How high we go? I don't know, guys,
Speaker 1: and even Capo, the master of the Bears, the guy
Speaker 1: who's often bearished a lot. He's saying, look, main support zone,
Speaker 1: reach and confluence. In regards to the twenty twenty one
Speaker 1: highs and all that jazz. He says, lots of liquidity
Speaker 1: above and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative.
Speaker 1: We're in extreme fear again, depression and much more so.
Speaker 1: Some sort of relief rallies coming here again doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that we are in a bull market. Is just a
Speaker 1: relief rally and Bitcoin could go lower. But obviously, timeline wise,
Speaker 1: the Fourier cycle played out to a tee. It just
Speaker 1: it had different characteristics. No your foric blow off top,
Speaker 1: no all season right. You did not see the common
Speaker 1: things that we saw in the past, and that could
Speaker 1: mean that in this cycle we saw the law of
Speaker 1: diminishing returns play out here for bitcoin, So could that
Speaker 1: be reflected in the downside as well, that you had
Speaker 1: diminished returns to the upside, but also you might get
Speaker 1: less volatility to the downside, right, I think that's plausible.
Speaker 1: And look, you're gonna see bears are going to do
Speaker 1: their victory lap and saying hah, I told you and
Speaker 1: so forth, and we're going to ten k and they're
Speaker 1: going to say all types of outlandish things. But again,
Speaker 1: if you didn't have the same type of upside we've
Speaker 1: seen in the past, I don't believe you're gonna see
Speaker 1: eighty ninety percent draw down, honestly, but I could be wrong. Look, right,
Speaker 1: I don't have a crystal ball, but if you know,
Speaker 1: the things we're seeing are very different than the previous
Speaker 1: cycles with bloff tops, euphoria, retail all season, and much more. So.
Speaker 1: What's my strategy, guys. I'm gonna look to take a
Speaker 1: little bit of profits if we have some sort of
Speaker 1: relief rally, you know, maybe bitcoin goes back to one
Speaker 1: hundred k, so we take some profits there. But I'm
Speaker 1: not liquidating everything. I've often stated that I'm not in
Speaker 1: a position where I need the money. Some of you
Speaker 1: may be right and you may have to liquidate more.
Speaker 1: I'm just you know, sharing my opinion and what's happening
Speaker 1: with me. But I will take a little bit off
Speaker 1: the table, and I plan to buy the all coin
Speaker 1: dips as we go lower. So buy the blood in
Speaker 1: the streets, right. Obviously, that's not financial advice. Do your
Speaker 1: own research, do what's best for you. I'm just saying
Speaker 1: what has worked for me, you know, is buying those lows.
Speaker 1: So for example, I was buying the FTX crash in
Speaker 1: November and December. You guys may recall I posted the
Speaker 1: receipts of those purchases a Bitcoin and other all coins,
Speaker 1: So my portfolio based on those entry prices is up
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna look to take some profits, but I'm
Speaker 1: still holding the majority of my bag for the next
Speaker 1: bull market. So I've often stated we got to have
Speaker 1: a macro view, and that's the approach I'm taking. Now,
Speaker 1: you are free to do whatever you want. I'm just
Speaker 1: sharing my opinion and playing the cycles accordingly. Obviously, this
Speaker 1: cycle did not turn out to how we expected it,
Speaker 1: even with ETFs, all coin ETFs, even with the Genius
Speaker 1: Act passing, and of course we didn't get the crypto
Speaker 1: market structure, and I've often stated that I think Trump
Speaker 1: launching the meme coins kind of hurt us, even though
Speaker 1: you know, overall I think he's been net positive, but
Speaker 1: that that kind of stole the all season. Not to mention,
Speaker 1: it alienated a lot of people who are let's say
Speaker 1: on the Democrat side, right, who may have been interested
Speaker 1: in crypto and was like, wait a minute, I don't
Speaker 1: want to get involved with Donald Trump's involved in this. Look,
Speaker 1: that's how human behaviors and the nature of politics works, right,
Speaker 1: So I think that hurt us. I think that a
Speaker 1: bit of the tariff stuff hurt us as well. And overall, economically,
Speaker 1: you know, people didn't have as much money to just
Speaker 1: go buy a bunch of all coins, and then you
Speaker 1: had competing markets such as AI taking away a lot
Speaker 1: of liquidity and things like that. So the cycle was
Speaker 1: different a bit rough, right, But like I said, I
Speaker 1: got the macro view. Crypto is getting the most adoption
Speaker 1: we've ever seen in history of this acid class and industry,
Speaker 1: with huge institutions, you know, getting involved, and I do
Speaker 1: believe once they are fully positioned, once the market structure
Speaker 1: has passed, they're gonna pump the hell out of it.
Speaker 1: I think now they're just dipping their toes in the
Speaker 1: water and they need full clarities. Know this is how
Speaker 1: this cycle ends, which man just disappointing and brutal as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fores selling right. Here's what Benjamin Cohen,
Speaker 1: he has a huge following, huge YouTube channel to check
Speaker 1: him out. He said, one common pattern in midterm years
Speaker 1: for bitcoin is that we see a lot of weakness
Speaker 1: going into early February, followed by strength into March, then
Speaker 1: weakness again going into April slash May. Doesn't mean it
Speaker 1: plays out exactly like that, but I think, you know,
Speaker 1: given how oversold we are, given the sentiment, I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna see a bound, some sort of relief rally.
Speaker 1: So I think he's right. February is maybe where we
Speaker 1: have the bottoming out. We started climbing out the hole,
Speaker 1: do a relief rally, and then like you said, here
Speaker 1: it come April May, we start dumping down to lower lows. Right,
Speaker 1: that's certainly certainly possible. Now even the ETFs are taking
Speaker 1: a big hit, so black Rock Spot Bitcoin ETF posts
Speaker 1: ten billion dollars daily volume record, as bitcoin records maj
Speaker 1: Intra dated the clock. Now, you would want this record
Speaker 1: to be broken on the upside when we're pumping. Unfortunately
Speaker 1: it's broken on the downside with a lot of outflows.
Speaker 1: So everybody is taking a beating here. Guys. It is
Speaker 1: brutal out there, man. But you know this is where
Speaker 1: again you don't want to catch a falling knife. But
Speaker 1: when there's blood on the streets, when everybody's afraid, this
Speaker 1: is the time. It is the big contrarian move. Warren
Speaker 1: Buffett has talked about it. But the masses, you know,
Speaker 1: they'll see this and start panic selling again. If you
Speaker 1: need the money, you need to exit the market, and yeah,
Speaker 1: you do what you got to do, But I'm talking
Speaker 1: about if you don't necessarily need the money now, like
Speaker 1: you know, there's not some emergency or whatever, and you
Speaker 1: don't have a long term view. You're just jumping in
Speaker 1: and out of pumps and dumps right then, you're just
Speaker 1: moving by the emotions in the market. You're doing it wrong, right,
Speaker 1: So it's it's tough out there, and guys, obviously you
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of controversy around bind It's a
Speaker 1: lot of fud and in fact people have been withdrawing
Speaker 1: their funds from Binance, So I would be careful with
Speaker 1: some of the exchanges. You know, we don't know if
Speaker 1: they're going to halt withdrawals. Even Binance had to temporarily
Speaker 1: halt withdrawals. They had a temporary disruption, So just be
Speaker 1: careful out there. There's reports coming out on different sources.
Speaker 1: And this is why I'm a big believer in self custody.
Speaker 1: I've been talking about it for years. So I custody
Speaker 1: the majority of my crypto assets on hardware wallets, and
Speaker 1: specifically I use Treasure. You know, they make great will
Speaker 1: hardware wallets to make, which makes it easy for you
Speaker 1: to custody. So I've been a user of the Treasure
Speaker 1: Save five and Save seven and Treasure. They've been around
Speaker 1: for years. They started this, guys, they started it back
Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen. They created the hardware wallets and the
Speaker 1: seed phrase setup. Their hardware wallets are open source. That's
Speaker 1: how much they trust the code and folks. You know,
Speaker 1: they support all the major coins such as Bitcoin, Etherorem, Salona, XRP,
Speaker 1: and much more, even new tokens, and they have a
Speaker 1: big discount starting today, it's a Valentine's Day Special up
Speaker 1: to twenty percent off until February fifteen, so make sure
Speaker 1: you check it out. You can get the devices at
Speaker 1: a discount, and it's an easy way and safe way
Speaker 1: to just custody your assets and you'll be able to
Speaker 1: sleep at night, especially if you have the long term
Speaker 1: view and you are looking at you know, storing your
Speaker 1: assets safely. You don't have to worry about exchange problems
Speaker 1: or halting or withdraws and all these things because you
Speaker 1: never know when those things can happen, especially when you
Speaker 1: have you know, the kind of the assets dumping at
Speaker 1: this rate and people are panicking and they're trying to
Speaker 1: get their you know, stuff off the exchanges, it could
Speaker 1: cause problems. So anyway, check out Treasure again. They got
Speaker 1: the Valentine's Day special going on so you can grab
Speaker 1: some devices. I'm a user once again and a believer
Speaker 1: in this product and it's pretty great. And they have
Speaker 1: the new version, the Treasure Saved seven, which is quantum
Speaker 1: ready and much more. So check it out. All the
Speaker 1: links will be in the description. Now I want to
Speaker 1: share what Mike Belshie had to say. He's the CEO Bitgo.
Speaker 1: They just went public and bit goes one of the
Speaker 1: top crypto custodians in the market, and Mike is a
Speaker 1: crypto og and he was building in Web one and
Speaker 1: Web two point zero as well, So he tweeted out,
Speaker 1: this is my fifth major crypto crash. If it's your first,
Speaker 1: I know it feels devastating, but nothing about bitcoins value
Speaker 1: proposition changed in the last thirty days. The infrastructure got better,
Speaker 1: the adoption grew, real use cases have emerged from payments
Speaker 1: with stable coins to tokenize equities. Crypto will come back stronger.
Speaker 1: So absolutely agree with this, but you know, in the moment,
Speaker 1: in the emotions and everything that's going on, it's tough, right.
Speaker 1: I'm avoiding looking at my portfolio, guys. And again I've
Speaker 1: been here since twenty sixteen, so I am certainly not
Speaker 1: immune from the emotions that come. But I tried to.
Speaker 1: But I've learned to master that in the sense of
Speaker 1: not panicking and then looking at, okay, where where can
Speaker 1: I take entries or get entries at, you know, with
Speaker 1: some of these coins. And then final news item, get guys,
Speaker 1: Anchorage Digital, which is actually a competitor bit go. They
Speaker 1: have announced a one hundred million dollar strategic equity investment
Speaker 1: from Tether, implying a valuation of four point two billion dollars,
Speaker 1: so they may get or go try to go public
Speaker 1: at some point. Diogo Monica, who's the co founder anchor,
Speaker 1: has said, even more exciting is the fact that these
Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars are being used for the first
Speaker 1: ever employee tender offer, providing liquidity to long tenured team
Speaker 1: members who have helped build a company over nearly a decade.
Speaker 1: So very very interesting. Let's continue to see how this
Speaker 1: market pans out in the coming days and weeks. Like
Speaker 1: I said, we are so over sold, so I believe
Speaker 1: some sort of relief is coming, but the thesis of
Speaker 1: the bull market continuing that is done. We are in
Speaker 1: a bear market, guys. The structure has broken. So it's
Speaker 1: pretty brutal, pretty tough out there, and I would love
Speaker 1: to hear what you guys think. I know I'm gonna
Speaker 1: hear it from the bears in the comment section doing
Speaker 1: their victory laps, and by all means, go ahead, guys,
Speaker 1: But remember markets are cyclical, right Bulls won't last forever,
Speaker 1: Bears don't last forever, so the bulls will return, But
Speaker 1: right now, it's the bear show. All right, guys, be
Speaker 1: sure to support the podcast by subscribing to my free
Speaker 1: email newsletter. Grab a copy of my book on Amazon.
Speaker 1: It's available on paperback in digital, and check out my
Speaker 1: course at mycryptocurse dot com. Folks, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you all later