Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total bases.
It is Tuesday. Had to think about that for a second,
forget what day it is sometimes, but Tuesday is always
five dollars Tuesday at the wager Talk site. I'm here
with Tokyo Brandon Brian Leonard. We're gonna hit as many
baseball games as possible over the next forty five minutes,
and I'm gonna start. Well, let's start the same place
we did yesterday. Yankees Mariners heads over to TBS tonight
here in the States, National TV game winner for me
last night on the Mariners, Brian Leonard my only client play.
It was nice to win in walk off fashion for
once after getting walked off multiple times over the weekend.
So the Mariners get it done two to one, use
a whole bunch of relievers in the process. Now you've
got Max Freed, Logan Gilbert. Definitely a matchup worthy of
National TV. So talk to me about Yankees Mariners. Do
you see it going the other way? Or you back
on the Mariners tonight?
Speaker 2: Ye, Mariners. If you've noticed, I'm wearing my glasses today
because I haven't been seeing the card well. So for
this season, I had I had a small player on
the Yankees. I only had small plays yesterday in baseball.
But uh yeah, it's been a rough start. You're right.
Both these guys are people you like to back. We're
actually getting to the point now in the season where
we've got a little bit of information behind us, and
I know that means a lot to Tokyo. Brandon is.
He doesn't use a lot of last year's stats, and
maybe I shouldn't have either because it's getting off to
a rough start. But hey, let's get him back tonight.
Gilbert going for Seattle tonight, and he's one of my
favorite pitchers. He's going at home. I've talked many times
about how well these Seattle pitchers pitch at home, and
they struggle on the road a little bit. But he's
been very good against both lefties and righties. He's probably
gonna play six lefties tonight, and he's got a thirty
one point seven to five point nine strikeout the walk
ratio in that regard, which is very similar to what
he does against against the So he's very good. He
doesn't have any any problem going left already. It either
really does the pitcher for the Yankees going today in
Max Free, He's very much the same way too, slightly better,
I guess one or the other, but not major differentials
for differentials like you see many times in the lineup today.
It's like, oh, Tony's only going to face one left
handed batter probably, or one right handed batter in the
Cleveland lineup tonight. But like both these pitchers, the offenses
have been hitt and miss so far from both these teams. Obviously,
when you take a look at this line we are seeing,
basically it's it's somewhat of a pick on. The Yankees
are slightly favored into one ten to one to fifteen
ranch total of a seven. Normally I'd say the under here,
but the Yankees do have one of the best hitting
teams in Major League Baseball. It's when like the Dodgers
or the Yankees are playing, it's tough to play unders
because the offenses can go off at any time. So
I'm saying the line basically what I thought it was
going to be. So there's not enough on me heater
to make it to play, and because of the way
we've been playing lately, I don't want to force anything.
So maybe maybe Brandon has something better than I do
on this one or maybe yourself.
Speaker 1: Yeah, go ahead, TV. You had Max Freed on opening Day,
a nice easy winner with the Yankees in their opener
out in San Francisco. So now you get Max Freed
around second time. I think he went six and a third,
two hits, no runs, look really good on opening day.
How do you are you riding it with Max Freed
here after that opening day effort?
Speaker 3: He did look good on opening day, and Gilbert didn't
look too good on opening Day, So yeah, what do
you do with these guys? Well, take a look at
the bullpens. I think the Yankees bullpen. I mean, Seattle's
known for their bullpen, but the Yankees bullpen is playing
really well right now. Like Brian said, we're starting to
build up some stats now so we can kind of
judge how things are. But you know, these guys have
only played one team so far or one series so far,
and they're on their second team, So take it with
a little bit of a grain assault, But yeah, the
Yankees bullpen is playing well. On my Twitter Tokyo underbar Brandon,
I put up the today's pitchers and their ops against
the team they're playing against, and yeah, Max Fried's ops
in sixty three at bats against these batters that he
faces today is six point twenty. And I've said in
previous shows that seven point fifty is kind of my
Mendoza line. So he's under the Mendoza line. It means
he does pretty well against these batters. You might be
surprised to know that Logan Gilbert's ops in seventy four
at bats against these guys is a whopping nine to fourteen.
That's not very good. The one caveat to these stats,
and I put the whole list every starter up on
my on my Twitter ex. Tokyo and Barburton. The caveat
to this, though, is you don't know how recent these
these numbers are. They could be four or five years ago,
and generally when I do my stats, I only consider
last year and partial twenty twenty four at this point.
So so some of these stats for long in the
tooth pitchers like Castillo and even Freed's been around for
a while. Some of these might be from six years ago.
I don't know, and I can't differentiate, So that's the caveat,
But it is telling to know that Gilbert has been
rocked by these guys at least at some point in
his career. Particularly Stanton and Judge both have over one
thousand ops's against him in twenty or more sorry ten
or more at bats, so that's relevant. I like the Yankees.
I made a free play video about this. I sent
it in that Wager Talk might not have uploaded it yet,
but it's on their YouTube channel. I like the Yankees
on the money Line, and I think it's good value.
They're Bullpens in good form. They Aaron Judge, they have
Max Freed. It's Yankees or nothing for me. Yeah, listen,
I go ahead, I might make it my parlay leg.
Speaker 1: Listen. I can't really argue there. I thought Free looked
really good in his opening start, and and like you said, Gilbert,
he battled against the Guardians, but that I don't think
there is a very good Guardians lineup, and they got
to him for enough. It wasn't a it wasn't a
bad start, but you're right, TV, it was it was not.
You know, when you're betting on Logan Gilbert, you kind
of need better than that. Typically where he's he's priced
for me. Yesterday, I just came to the conclusion that Okay,
I've got I've got the Mariners rate. You know, do
my power rankings. I have the Mariners one, I had
the Yankees two. And I kind of sat there and said,
wait a minute, so I could get the team that
I have won against the team that I have two
at minus one oh five. I'm not at a pitching deficit,
and all my bullpen guys are healthy. That was I
was ultimately rational with landing on Seattle last night. Something
I found interesting. I saw wager Talk Gianni are our coworker,
Gianni the Greek who you know, I mean, if he's
gonna give something out to probably listen to it. He
posted his MLB power rankings to the wager Talk site
yesterday in a video, and he didn't have the Mariners
in his top five. And I said, okay, that's I'm
surprised that that there's It almost seems like there's like
a pretty polarizing opinion when it comes to this team.
For me, though, the pitching that they have is why
I have them so high. And last night to close
that game out for Jose Ferrar to bizarre or de
Spire to brash, that is really really good in my opinion.
That's that's as good as you're gonna get But all
four of those guys pitched last night, so we're early
in the season. I still think you probably see some
of them here. I don't think anyone went crazy with
with pitch count, but it's not as good of a
spot for the Mariners as last night was in my opinion.
So I think with giving Freed the slight edge over Gilbert,
I'm kind of with you, TV. I think i'd go
I think it would be Yankees or pass for me
as well. Right here, Brian, Sorry, did you have something
to add there?
Speaker 2: Before we move on, I'll put up a finger in
case I have something to add.
Speaker 3: Brian in the finger.
Speaker 1: All right, there's there's plenty of other games to get to,
so go ahead. TV.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry to cut in.
Speaker 1: It's five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: By the way, all three of us will certainly have
a play up today for five dollars. I have a
four percenter up so in MLB, so I just wanted
to throw that in make management happy.
Speaker 1: So we will move along. Yeah, I'll bring up the parlay.
Yesterday it was ozho and three, but guess what Friday
the parlay went three and oh. And you know when
you're doing Parlays. I think that's right, that's how you'd
rather have it. Although I know some people bet the
the best bets individually. So anyway, uh yeah, listen, gee Hurt,
I don't know if the Jays being ashamed of themselves. Listen,
you want to know something even more rosiculous. Here's even
more ridiculous. I went into a ten minute my under
the Radar segment yesterday. I did ten minutes on Cody
Ponce and how I expected this like breakout of him
and the poor guy like pulls a hamstringer gets he
leaves the game injured. He wasn't pitching bad too, you know,
into the third. I think that if he made the play,
the run probably would have come in. But the stuff's
looking decent, and I think that's the reason. You know,
the Jays they lose their starter in the third. They
have to kind of go to the bullpen earlier, and
once it went off the rails, it just it just
kind of went off the rails. So we can go
back to that series here. So I'm going to go
to Brian. Brian talk to me about man. I feel
like I maybe cursed Cody Ponce. He's back in the States.
For the first time in four years. Is his debut
with the Blue Jays, and I I don't know how
much I might have put him on the il for
a couple of months after that, but let's go to
that game. I'll go to you Rockies, Blue Jays and
what did you see there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like it's a it's going to be
a serious injury. And I think that took the air
out of Toronto because they've had so many starting pitchers
get hurt this year. It's a team coming into the
season expect to go back to the World Series, so
they continue to lose their starters and they just don't
have the depth to do it. I think that's what
it is, an in game thing where you just don't God,
here we go again. But today they got Feldner going
for Colorado, and we talked about it. We like Colorado
better this year than we have in the past. Still
the road Rockies, everybody writes it up as an automatic win.
But like I said before this series started, they're on
the road. They haven't been in Colorado yet. And when
we Colorado travels from home to road, that's when you
take care. You could take advantage of the road Rockies
Felner goal for Colorado. Shares are going for Toronto. Toronto
big favorite here and they're about to watch seventy five.
Watch seventy range eight and a half to the under
slightly on this one. Yeah, I'm sorry to seventy Yes. Yeah,
Schurezer joined the team late because he was a late Sidney.
But from everything we have seen in the springding and
now we haven't seen a lot, he looks really good
right now. He's a dog out there. He's going to
make sure this team is ready to go in this game.
I've never been much of a Feltoner fan, but do
I want to really lay this kind of number with Toronto?
I'm not sure. I think there's better ways to make
money on the cards, so I'm passing. But you would
expect from a veteran team that that happened to yesterday,
we would expect a nice bounce back. But baseball isn't
like a physical sport like good basketball or a football,
so it's a little you have to take it with
a little bit of a grand salt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think for this one. Listen like you're still
paying a sort of a massive premium to back the
Blue Jays. I was more inclined to do it yesterday
with the minus one and a half because I felt
like we had such a nice pitching edge. I'm not
sure that the pitching edge, even even with Feldner, I
don't think it's as pronounced here. My my numbers suggest
that Rockies plus one and a half, which is now
four and oh on the season. We brought that up
on the first show, that that would be a good
way to play the Rockies. It's four and oh against
the number. I think that's how I would go again.
I I you know, I'll tell you what one thing
about the Blue Jays. They have nothing at the Triple
A level right now. I don't know where they're getting
reinforcements from unless they I mean, they have very very
little in the pipeline in terms of like big league
ready pitching. So that is a that is rough for
them to lose Ponts and like you said, probably lose
him for uh, you know, for for a long period
of time. Yeah. Tough, tough loss, right there, Rockies plus
one and a half. Yeah, it's still undefeated, four and
oh against the number.
Speaker 3: We'll see how long TV.
Speaker 1: I want to come to you with I want to
move it along to a different game. Uh, one that
I agreed with you on yesterday, just it didn't work out.
And that's the Tigers and the Diamondbacks. And you know,
kind of something that we brought up was, listen, Arizona's
still probably gonna hit. So lineups still, you know, they
still have a respectable lineup. Corbyn Carroll could tell Marte
per Domo there's there's offense there. Verlander yesterday didn't have
it and Arizona was able to sort of pound their
way to a nine to six win. I think you
were a day early on the Tigers. I think I'm
kind of leaning toward the Tigers here. I was wondering
if you're willing to come back with Detroit out in
the desert tonight.
Speaker 3: So this is what's interesting. And I was watching that
game last night, and uh, very interestingly, as soon as
the Diamondbacks took a seven to nothing lead and their
starter came out of the game, I said, they're gonna
come back, They're gonna they took their starter at I
think after the fifth inning. I think it was If
I'm not miss I could be wrong, but I was like,
they're gonna get four full innings on this bullpen, they're
gonna come back, and they almost did. So yeah, I
agree with you Adam and your sentiment there. I think,
uh Man, that Arizona bullpen is bad. They got nobody nobody,
but they hit a lot. So, like I said in
the very first show that we did together this season,
look for a lot of overs with this team, especially
in that ballpark. Bullpen is atrocious, but they got some
solid hitting. I mean, Carol whacked it last night. I mean,
I mean, yeah, it was a good It was a
good game for them. Taking a look at the OPS
ranking rankings, though, Mayes has a five to twenty nine
OPS against these batters and only thirty three at bats
and fat has a one thousand and one to sixty
OPS against these batters in twenty five at bats. So
definitely pitching advantage to Detroit. A definitely both advantage to Detroit.
The problem is they're hitting is just flaccid. So if
they can get any kind of I love that word,
if they can get any kind of run production, they
they should be able to win this. But you know,
it's like it's like in football when like Toledo's playing
Hawaii and it's like seventy five to seventy You know,
it's it turns into these kind of games. Can Detroit
you know, uh, put it up and keep up with
the Arizona Bats, That's the question. So I'm gonna stay
off this game. Over would be the only way I
would go in any Diamondbacks game for the rest of
the year.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't make a MAC Football reference without
bringing Brian Leonard in. So if you're gonna throw it,
you're gonna throw the MATC conference in here. We got
to get his gotta get his take on this. I
guess the question I would ask you, Brian, you know
Casey Mize was I was pretty anti Casey Mice at one.
Speaker 3: Point, and last year I think you were. Ye.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he he he sort of like won me
over over in the respect that like I feel like
he's kind of reinvented himself. I don't know that he's
He's certainly not a fade for me at this point. TB.
I'll go, I'll echo your sentiment. The Diamondbacks bullpen is bad.
I mean it is. It is a problem. So you
know yesterday they don't really need the bullpen. They built
themselves up such a big cushion. You know, I see
the Tigers that even money here, It's it's hard to
not to like want to take a shot with that price, Brian,
you know ge Hurt in the chat, let me pull
his comment up. He says, you know, snakes are passed,
they casey mees and the bump. You know, is he
going to hit the bottom of the rotation. I don't
know that I agree with that being like a deterrent
for me to be on the Tigers. So you know,
how are you seeing miz the Tigers? And you know,
talk to g Hurt there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, neither one of us really like myes last year,
but I agree he's grown on me a little bit.
Rando font for Arizona. As I said yesterday, a lot
of these pictures have looked really good at spring training
and it's been blown up in my face panic yesterday.
But fot has looked good. And keep in mind he
was highly regarded as a minor league or big strikeout guy.
It hasn't really been that way in the majors. But
he was terrible last year, no doubt about it. He
was a good You get so many starts from the
year before you go God how many times am I
going to lose on this guy. It's tough to come
back and back him. But the line to me looks
about where it should be. I expect both pitchers to
have have a pretty good game here. This This is
a pretty good hitters ballpark, So I don't like to
bet the under in this one, but I'm not finding
an edge here either way. I think both these pitchers
are going to have better seasons than what they saw
in the past.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean five. If he ever figures out the
secondary stuff again, he could be very good. That fastball
is a big fastball. You know what, Brian, I'm gonna
stay with you and then and then we'll get Tokyo
the next one. Just because blister bets here says thank
you by your breakdown on the Dodgers Guardians game yesterday.
I wish I played Guardians first five, but the under
verse five won me some good coin mess. It pitched
very effect efficiently. Yeah, he did that. That was a
great call Guardians. I mean, you know, Brian, I think
now we're both in the mode of like the other
shoe to drop mode with this team. I think because
they did look good yesterday and so I'll go back
to you show. Hey, Otani, Tanner, Biby looks like the
matchup tonight, So talk to me. Dodgers Guardians. Do you
know when do we start fading the Guardians? I guess
that's a question.
Speaker 2: Well, as much as I talked up the Guardians, and
yesterday's game was because of the starting pitcher, and he
was great, and I like the fire. He had something
to keep in mind for the rest of the season.
I've always liked he's the best picture, and I mentioned
that yesterday. I think he's the best picture in the
organization starting pitchers. But the problem was I used Cleveland
over one and a half first five runs, and I
always scored one. Now that I had other kinds on base,
thought they would go to score. So I'm probably the
only one out there that didn't play my entire Andy
cap and it ended up losing. What are you gonna do?
One and a half percent? But anyway, he got tenor
Biby going against Sotani today, and when Tony starts as
a starting pitcher, if you're a prop player, I like
to bet against his props from hitting because he's got
something else on his mind. If you take a look
at his stats when he's dhing as a post to pitching.
So if you're a prop guy, I'm not really I
follow it a little bit, but I don't give out
a lot of plays to clients. But he hasn't done
well in that regard. But Biby did have They pulled
up earlyer the last start he had, he had some problems,
but a few days later he said he was great,
So they were really originally concerned and but no, everything
seems to be good for Bibby. I'm not a big
fan of this Cleveland offense. They have some guys right
now hitting over their heads and so as the team
I'm looking to face overall. But do I really want
to lay anywhere from two thirty five to seventy on
the Dodgers here? It would be Dodgers or nothing for me.
But I think there's other ways to play it as
opposed to straight up. Cleveland's bullpad is still very good.
Dodgers have a very good bullpad. Maybe Dodgers first half
and try to try to find something with that, or
maybe Cleveland team total under first off something to that effect.
Speaker 1: Tokyo, Brandon, You're good at in the other ways to
play the bigger favorites department. I feel like you do
a good job at this, so I'll bring you in here.
Can you find a way to play the Dodgers here,
you know, try to circumvent this large price.
Speaker 3: I can't. Unfortunately. If anything, I would play like a
O tiny pitching prompt. Okay, like I would play his
outs under perhaps if you look at his early season starts,
he generally comes out of games pretty early, and the
Dodgers do not want to get him injured in his
first start, So any kind of outs prop under perhaps,
especially if it's fifteen point five, definitely playing under, but
it's probably you're probably not gonna get that, and you're
probably gonna be fourteen and a half. Probably his strikeouts
I haven't projected at six strikeouts and fourteen outs recorded,
So I would look at that if you have to
bet this game. But I think there's other ways to
make money today, and.
Speaker 1: That is what we are here to ultimately find, you know,
working our way through the chats. Obviously, if you're new
to the show, hang around. Last fifteen minutes will be
giving out the best bets for the show. But this
is the period of the show where we do things
like try to talk people off of play. I guess
plays they don't want. Gee Hurt says, someone talk me
off the Nats again today, So I'll go to Brian.
I mean, I guess the quick thing I would say
is like maybe Andrew Painter has arrived. I guess that
would be the way you look at like potentially not
being on the Nationals. This is a guy that I
feel like Philly has been waiting forever to come up
and be in the rotation, and now he's in the rotation.
So Bryan Leonard, can you talk gee her off the
Nats today?
Speaker 2: I'm glad somebody asked for this one because this is
probably going to be my play in the parlay today.
Speaker 1: PJ.
Speaker 2: Polland is going for Washington. He's been installed as a reliever.
He's already pitched twice this season coming out of the
ball been He's a lefty and if you take a
look at his breakdowns, he's a LEFTI. He doesn't have
a lot of control against lefties. Last year he had
a thirty two point six strikeout percentage, which is very good,
but his walk percentage against lefties was fifteen point two percent.
He wasn't a whole lot better against Ready, but his
strikeout right went really down eighteen point one, dropped from
thirty two point six to eighteen point one. With facing
Righty's his walk Gray was still eleven point one. So
you've got a Washington pitcher who I'm assuming is only
going to be out there for an inning or two
and he's had control problems. Philadelphi's a veteran team. They
should be able to draw some walks here, and I
think that's going to be good for them. The problem
with Washington is we've talked about this bullpen being the
worst in Major League Baseball. Cole Henry's who usually their
eighth inning guy. He's pitched to the last three days.
Brad Lord is their seventh inning guy. He threw fifty
one pitches yesterday. He won't be there. So that leaves
Clayton Veeter along with the rest of the bullpen that
are the worst of the bullpen arms. So there's a
way to play this game, and it's not going to
be on Washington for me. When you're looking at obviously,
when you're looking at the Phillies, we've all heard about
Andrew Panner. Excited for Andrew Panner, but it is a
game in which people have been waiting for. So you're
looking at you know, the line out there is anywhere
from like one seventy five to one ninety. I like
the Philadelphia spot, but maybe we're doing better. We'll look
better at the team total. Let's take a look at
the team total here for Philadelphia. You can get any
It just goes anywhere from three and a half to
five and a half. Right now, I'm saying a four
and a half out there at minus one forty I
like to I like the Philadelphia team total over. I'd
even I'd even lay it for them to get six
runs and get plus money back. So let's let's take
a look at that. I like the Philadelphia team total.
I'll even go to the five and a half here.
I'm pretty confident they're gonna have a lot of success
against this Washington pitching staff. Let's look at playing Philadelphia
to score six or more runs, and you're getting them
about a plus one oh five or something to that range.
So I'll go with that. I think Philadelphia gets to
this Washington team this right here.
Speaker 1: And Brian, just to clarify, that was Phillies team total over.
What was the price on that and a half over
five and a half. Okay, perfect, we will uh, and
we'll recap the parloight the end of the show. I'll
just say a couple of words about Andrew Paynter quick
before we move on on major league debut. Uh, he's
only twenty two. I think that's like the thing that's
like he's been if you've if you follow the miners
and the prospects, he's been around for a while. Tommy
John surgery a couple of years ago. Uh, they really
protected him last year. He could they could have easily
called him up at some point last year, and they just,
you know, he was coming off of an injury. It
wasn't like he was just totally dominant in the miners.
And and that's that's the luxury. When you're the Phillies
and you're just you're gonna win one hundred games, you
don't you don't need to bring a guy like that
up and and potentially expose him to the big leagues
and have him, you know, get his confidence shattered and stuff.
So now he's had an entire offseason. This was the
thirteenth overall pick in twenty twenty one, and they are
the organization's very high on him. I think is part
of the reason that they were willing to let Ranger
Suarez go, knowing that, you know, they expect him to
hold down a rotation spot this year. So I'm pretty
high on him as well. I think he's gonna be
pretty solid and uh so, yeah, I'm I'm with Philly's
correlated stuff in this game. I still think the Nats
are awful. I think I don't know how they win games,
to be honest with you, his team's gonna start losing
games soon. So TV, I'm gonna go. H I see you,
you know, chatting up with leg Show magazine in the chat,
I'm gonna go to leg Show here and I'll send
this to you. He brings up the A's OH to
four straight up in first five. Yeah, the A's not
off to a great start. Who would have thought that? Oh,
we did, because we said that probably would happen on
our opening show. So the oh and four A's heading
out to Atlanta tonight, Will staying in Atlanta. Looks like
we've got a couple of journeymen on the mound. Aaron Savale,
Jose Suarez. How are you seeing this one? A's Braves.
Speaker 3: I won the Braves yesterday. Uh so yeah, I was
pretty happy about that. Let me address two things in
the chat very quickly. One person asked, what does F
five mean in your plays? It means first five innings? Uh.
And then uh, someone else said, leave it to Brandon
tell say that Washington is trash and then they come
out and win. So yeah, Uh, if you need Cody
Ponce to come back off his injury, just let me
talk trash about him and he'll probably come back and
win the cy Young So anyways, to address this one,
the A's. The A's are another team that. Man, their
pitching is not performing, but they have some Their one
two three is really nice. They're they're whacking it really good.
Not much of a bullpen. So this is another team
I look to a lot of overs on. I really
want to play the Braves in this one, but a
couple things holding me back number one two in a row.
I'm not one of those guys. I treat every game
as kind of its own entity, so I don't really
do the like streak or on a roll kind of thing.
But recently I haven't been able to win the same
team two times in a row, so it's kind of
kind of a voodoo for me. Is kind of a
taboo for me, so I'm not sure if I'll do it,
but the price is pretty nice at minus one forty.
The Braves seem like they can win those one two
three lineup for the A's though that scares me a
little bit. Rooker and solderstrom Man they can whack it,
but their pitching is terrible. If anything, I would take
the over, but Jose Suarez is kind of an X
factor for me here. So those two factors are keeping
me off the two in a row thing, and then
the Jose Suarez. I don't really know what to expect
from him.
Speaker 1: Yeah I listen, Oh yeah, no, let's I'll I'm gonna
go to Brian here. I was just gonna say that
that's going to be the the conundrum with the A's
this year, because they do have some really you know,
exciting offensive players. They're gonna hit, but you're gonna have
to factor in some pitching. That again, I think Brian,
and I'll go to you to to sort of, you know,
talk on this. If their young pitchers don't like step
up big time this year, I don't. I don't know
how this staff isn't near the very very bottom of
the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree. The problem with the A's is
hitting sampoint. Is they striking out all the time. They're
setting records for strikeouts. I believe they've had the most,
and there's small sample size, the most strikeout percentage, highest
strikeout percentage of Major League baseball history. I mean, it's
been terrible, so I would your first thought would be
Jose Suarez strikeouts over. But if you take a look
at what he did last year against right handed batters
and he's expected to see four right handed batters out
of this lineup, his strikeout on the walk ratio was
exactly the same eleven point nine. How often do you
see a walk rate the same as a strikeout rate
against right handed battery. Now he's a lefty, so that that's, Uh,
he's done pretty well. I guess left he's twenty eight
point nine compared to ten point five in the walk rate.
But against right he's he's I don't trust him at all
against any right hander out there, So yes, I don't.
I don't like him at all. And uh, but the
age batters are not hitting, maybe maybe it's an underplay.
Who knows, but yeah, open right now is just swing
or Sacramento is just swinging for the fences and it's
not they're not getting.
Speaker 1: Attempt It's a really good observation. There were some awful
swings in that Blue Jays series, like straight up just
not even close, just hacking up there and gee hearts. Yeah,
close your eyes and swing as hard as you possibly can.
It looked like that for periods of time in that
opening series for sure.
Speaker 3: Twenty five strikeouts in three games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gotta that's that's not gonna fly. I mean
maybe maybe when you're playing in Sacramento and when you
when you hit one of those pop ups, it goes out.
But it is not a probably not a winning strategy,
and it's something that we I feel like we forecasted
on our very first show of the year. I think
we all were kind of in agreement that maybe maybe
the market was too high on them.
Speaker 3: And if they struck out twenty five times, you get
twenty seven outs per game, so they struck out an
entire game.
Speaker 1: It's hilarious TV. I'm coming to you here. We got
Frank Gomez with a donation, so very much appreciate you
and and he's he says, thank you, gents. I hit
on both unders for Pirates, Reds and Giants, Padres, Tokyo,
Brandon love your outs list. If you have it for today,
please share so over to you TV. Are you sharing
that today? And this is also your window for a
best bet? So take it.
Speaker 3: Away, okay, best bet. I'm gonna do the Yankees here.
I think they're gonna come back. Take them on the
money line minus one twelve. I already broke it down
on my Twitter at Tokyo underbur brand, and I will
since since since mister Gomez asked me specifically, I will
put it out later today before the games. It might
be in the evening, but check my Twitter. I will
put it up. I promise. Today's theme is w k
RP and Cincinnati by the way, and I'm Johnny Fever.
Speaker 1: So yeah, all the Twitter handles are right there on
your screen. TV. That's something he tweets out. I think
somewhat somewhat regularly a couple times a week, basically daily.
Speaker 3: There's so many lists though, so I choose which list
to put out today. But if he wants the outs,
I'll put the outs out later.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's what you You ask it on
here and we try to get it to you. So
TV is going to make sure you get that outs list,
you know. Check that out for check that out on
his Twitter. Also check out his page at wager talk
dot com. I think you said four percent play. That's
up for five bucks today so far mister yep, four
four percenter up for five dollars and then we all
will have something as part of five dollars Tuesday. That's
site wide. Any handicapper on the site five dollars play
at wager talk dot com. I'm going to head to
Brian Leonard Bryan Dealer's choice for you. We already know
what your parlay leg is. Pick a game, and then
let's the three of us hit that game before I
get to my best bet.
Speaker 2: Right, Well, let's look at Boston Houston. That's two very
expected to be two very good teams going below against Brown.
Brown's about a one forty five favorite total seven and
a half. We've talked to the past about how we're
at least myself and I think Trigger agrees Brian Bellow.
It was the wrong starter to give the big contract
to never been much of a Bellow fan, but he's
performed better than what I thought he has the last
couple of years. Brown is very polarizing. I know a
lot of guys in in the fantasy community. I think
he's going to have a letdown this season. Other guys
think he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. So
it'll be interesting how this one comes Outtake the look
at the two teams. I'm not a Houston fan this year.
I think Houston's going to come up a little bit short.
They're a team I'm looking to fade, and I think
Boston is clearly, at least in my regard, the better team.
So you're getting the better team. Is a nice underdog
price here. Yes it's on the road, but Boston's always
been a pretty good road team. I think there's a
little bit of value here on Boston. Although I'm not
a huge Bellow fan, I'm leaning that way, and the
money it's pretty balanced here, so it's sticking in that
same range. But I'm just wondering what you had thought here.
I do want to point out that I am going
I've got to excuse me, a four percent play in
hockey going to now you want our hockey play again.
Last night we had Toronto Maple Leafs, a big underdog
winning in every sport. Once again, it stuff for baseball,
So it'll turn around. The Glasses are going to do
it today, folks. But wondering what your thoughts are on
this Boston game, because I think there's a little bit
of value on him on them here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, listen, it is March thirty. First,
we have we have plenty of time to get in
the in the in the plus in the in the bases,
and I would say handicappers players on the field, that
the the element of randomness those first couple of weeks
is just playing in temperatures like I mean it is.
It is pouring rain, It's it's cold out in the
Northeast right now. It's like those first couple of weeks
are battle So don't sweat that. We'll absolutely get there
with the with the results. I'll before I kick it
to TV, I'll just talk about the Astros. Yeah, I'm
I'm in full fade mode with the Astros. The only
reason I haven't done it yet this year is because
I couldn't really find I mean, their opponents so far
were the Angels, who I think are atrocious and the
Red Sox who you know, just I had the Red
Sox Sunday and just the way they lost that game,
I didn't like, you know, losing in that manner, not
really hitting, blowing it to nothing lead and then kind
of having to turn around go to Houston. Because I
thought about the Red Sox yesterday, and boy am I
happy that I didn't get involved with them because they
completely no showed that game and eight to one loss.
So yeah, like I'm certainly looking for spots to fade Houston.
But once again, I'm with you, Brian. I don't know
if I can get down, you know, with with Bao
on the road here, given how the Red Sox have
come out of the gate one and three, you know,
just that's that's tough. That's tough for me to get
there with them. So I'll bring TV. And why don't
why don't you give us your thoughts? Red Sox astros,
how are you looking at this one?
Speaker 3: Okay? Yeah, I've never been a Brian Bao fan, but
looking at his ops against these batters in his career,
it's right on the Mendos the line, and I am
a Hunter Brown fan and he might be polarizing, but
I'm i'm i'm on, I'm in his click. I think
he's great. I think he's on the precipice of being elite.
I got him ranked really high according to my numbers
as well. So neither one of these teams really hitting
that well. So I would look. You know, the fact
that I like Hunter Brown and the fact that Boston's
baths seem a little cold, but Astro's bullpen's not performing well,
all of that kind of makes me lean to a
first five team total under. And I just went and
looked at it. For some reason, the books are switching
back and forth for both of these teams. The full
game you can get either team two and a half
or three and a half, and for the first five
you can get either team one and a half or
two and a half. So that's kind of strange, But
I think the Red Sox first five innings under two
and a half would be a pretty good bed if
you can get it. I haven't pulled the trigger on that,
but just you know, since you mentioned it to me,
I just did a little quick research, and that would
be the way I would go. If you can get
a two and a half for Boston in the first five.
I think that would be the way. I think Hunter
Brown's great. His ops against these guys in his career
is six oh seven. It's a little bit under the
Mendos line. It's not electric, but it's good enough.
Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, this is you know ge hurt references.
He saw the you know wager Talk posted Jeohnny's clip
where he gave his top five Major League Baseball teams out.
He had Red Sox at five. I don't think he's
like off on that. Like, I think the Red Sox
are definitely in that. They're definitely in my top ten.
I will say this and maybe I'll loop Bryan back
in here. I had a hard time ranking this team
coming into the season, like I want to believe in them,
but then then I watch what I watched the first
four days of the year, and I know I again.
I came out of the show yesterday and said, hey,
don't overreact to four games, but I can't. I couldn't
watch the last two days and then like justify being
on them here, so so help me make sense of that.
Speaker 2: Well, the reason why I think the Red Sox, there's
a lot of people believe in them is that they've
got a lot of pitching depth in the miners. Cruchet's
great Sonny Gray, very good, very solid. Connerly early brought
up early and he's great. We saw that these looked great.
Speaker 1: Shouldn't have taken him out, in my opinion, continue Yeah.
Speaker 2: And uh, I've never been much of a Swas fan,
but and Brian Bellow. But they've got guys down there
in the miners that are really good. Peyton Toley, I
really like him. I'm he'll be up in no time.
And they've got some other guys that are very good.
So from a depth standpoint in the starting rotation, they've
got probably more depth in that regard to anybody in
that division. And I think that's why Boston. There's a
lot of people like Boston. Plus they've got a lot
of good young players. Roman Athlete is terrific.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: They you know, they've got so many good outfielders that
they tried to trade Jared Durant and he wouldn't let
him train him because he had such a great spring
and he performed well last year. Will you're a Bray,
He's going to be one of the top hitters in
baseball this season. And I like the move I'm bringing
into Kenlan Durman. The guy's got some speed, he plays
two different positions. I think got a lot of good
young players on this team. So the future in Boston
is very good, I believe, and in the next couple
of years they are going to be the team debat
in this in this division. So I like Boston, but
I don't think I would have had them in my
top five.
Speaker 3: Definitely not TV.
Speaker 1: I you know what about come to you TV, because
I think as I listen to both that you talk
about that, I think I'm you said you like the
under Red Sox under or like something correlated with Hunter Brown.
I'm looking at the chat and they're they're pro Hunter Brown,
and I'm like, you know, watching the Red Sox swing
the bats the last last two days, I don't think
that's a terrible way to look at this here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Boston's not swinging the bat that well,
and you know, yeah they have Roman Anthony, but I
mean they're pretty mediocre team as far as I'm concerned,
I think the Mets are a lot better than Boston.
I think I think the Mariners are a lot better
than Boss. There's no way, Boston is the fifth best
team in MLB in my opinion. But you know this
is what this is why they play the games, right.
Speaker 1: If they do have why we have it. It's why
we can bet. If everyone we wouldn't have a market.
Speaker 3: To bet exactly exactly. But I'm a big Hunter Brown fan.
I think he's good. I think he's really good. But
and I think he's getting better actually, So we'll see though.
I mean, now that I'm backing him, he's probably gonna
rupture an achilles tendon or something, so we'll see. You
go ahead, Brian, Yeah, Brian, Ah.
Speaker 2: I just I just wanted to point out we always
make fun of ESPN because they talk about shit that
nobody cares about and argue about it. VR. I don't
think in the three years or the time we've been
doing this show two years, we've or Johnny whatever on
the show and because of putting out something like this
or he's getting to mention on this show. And that's
one of the things that ESPN does. They throw out
something and somebody will make some not that this is
a bad comment. He probably does have them in that
regard with somebody that might make a comment about something
and they can spend a whole hour talking about it. Yeah,
how wrong it is.
Speaker 1: Well, that's the thing. I mean, I think I had
them nine. So it's not like I'm like, I mean,
I'm still I've still got the Red Sox a top
ten team. Shane in the chat says they can't hit
right now. Yeah, that's that is true. But this is
where it comes to like baseball small sample drop this
in the middle of July, no one cares. No One's like, oh,
the Red Sox, Well, they can't hit. So for me,
it's going to be finding a spot to back them.
I am pro. I just want to make that very clear.
I am pro Red Sox and finding a spot to
get back in with this team. I just don't know
that it's here. Maybe it's tomorrow. I thought it might
be yesterday, And I'm glad I talked myself off of that.
So for me and the way I think and the
way I bet, because I talked myself off of that
yesterday they lost, I think I can, like, you know,
I'll see another I'll try to, Like in poker, I'll check,
I'll see if I can see a free card here
and then and then look to play them later in
the week. As far as the parlay is concerned, we
already talked about my leg as well. I'm gonna use
the Tigers even money. I'm at minus one thirteen on
what the Tigers should be favored here. It's not a
huge edge, but it's it's good enough to close out
the parlay. I think if they do get in a
close game. We both talked about, you know, the starters
maybe being like a wash here. I'd much rather have
the Tigers in a close game than the Diamondback. So,
Brian Leonard, I'm gonna go over to you. Can you
tell me what the price the juice was on your
team total over.
Speaker 2: I believe it's plus one oh five. And if you
can't get the team totals, I'm fine with Philadelphia. You're
gonna think minus what seventy seven in some books right now,
So if you can't get a team total, I'm fine
with Philadelphia. It's a little bit high in what I
normally use, but I don't want any part of this
watching and pitching staff in this.
Speaker 1: Game and the final point before we close it down.
You know, Jack is like, I don't think Gianni meant
the power ratings don't mean much until twenty twenty five games.
And I think what he's saying is, don't don't marry
like if you've got him there, you know, I think
you're just not changing your If you came and did
all this research coming into the season, you shouldn't be
like abandoning it on four days of regular season play.
I think that's probably the more pertinent like point to
make about power inankings. Brian, you're nodding. Is that kind
of what you're interpreting as well?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you're not gonna if you work with three
months on doing all your work and you're not gonna
throw it away off of one series or whatever. So yeah,
that's a great point.
Speaker 3: I never pay attention to power rankings. I only care
about the matchups today. I don't care about power rankings
at all, So I don't pay attention to well, well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's not that you don't care TV, it's
just that you're you're forming yours more in season, So like, yeah,
you know, I think I think what you mean to
say is you don't you're not as as married to
like a projection. You want to go off the data.
That's like in the like that's that's coming in from
the games, which is kind of how I bet minor
league baseball, So I get it, like and I've I'm
starting to gravitate more toward that at the big league
level anyway.
Speaker 3: So I think I don't care how a team is
in general, I care how they are today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that that that's
a fair point to make. We've hit the we've hit
the the forty five minute marks. So let's recap the
parlay one more time before we sign off Tokyo. Brandon
is going with Yankees minus one ten. I'm going to
use the Tigers on the full game money line, even money,
and then we've got a team total from Brian Leonard.
He says Philly's team total over five and a hal
app that's plus one oh five. If you can't get
the team total in the parlay, I'm with you, Brian.
I think the Phillies money line you're gonna obviously win
a little bit less. It's a favorite, but I think
that might work there as well. And we'll be back
as always nine am Eastern every day here on the
Wage You Talking YouTube channel more five dollars Tuesday, all
day Today, all handicappers check out all of our pages.
We've got the Double Play Special. Even though it's Tuesday,
the Double Play Special is still there. You can pick
two of us at a very reduced rate, and we'll
be back in the morning tomorrow nine am Eastern for
more total basis. Have a great day, everybody,