Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It is time for full
court press. It's also five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk,
which means myself, Rob Bino, every other handicapper on the
site will have plays today on their page for just
five dollars, So be sure to check that out. Be
sure to check out Robin, and my page is for
joint specials from now through the end of the NCAA tournament.
You've got three day specials in the full season, and
we have a monster board today, Rob, So real quick
recap of last night I have because I have to
point this out. I have come on here numerous times
and said, Rob, I you know I made a good
bet that lost. What does that mean? Well, I was
right on in my intel was correct. I beat a
line move and it just didn't work me out that
that would typically is. You know, you can make good
bets that lose, and so I got to at least
acknowledge last night. I feel like I made a bad
bet that one. I was on Cleveland State. I thought
Neessa was gonna play. He did not play. They actually
showed up without two starters, and so the number moved
against me. But sure enough, what did Cleveland State do
they came out dropped one hundred I think more than
one hundred and won the game. So hey, I kind
of would rather be on the bad bet that win. Dram,
I don't know about you, what do you think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's take the bad bet that wins every day
of the week at them. Yeah, that's definitely. You know,
there's the old saying, rather be lucky than good, and
then in instances were unlucky. In this business, when you
do it every single day of the year of the season,
you're gonna run into spots like that and we'll take them.
I mean, you know, sometimes you have the wrong calculation,
but it works out right in the final result. For
myself last night, parlay record with Eastern Washington eighty five
eighty one law And I tell you, I don't know
if anyone an infactive Garth who was on the Eastern
Washington side with me if you watch that second half
of that game, but it was that was as gut
wrenching and as frustrating as it could get watching Idaho
just get second chance after second chance after second chance
and hit just about every three they threw up in
the second half. And but despite all that Eastern Washington
comes back, it takes the lead sixty three to sixty two,
comes down, the next possession commits a foul, Idaho misses
the front end. What happens? Offensive rebound kick out three?
Missed the three? What happens offensive rebound kick out for three?
Make the three? Sixty five sixty And that's kind of
how the entire second half went as Eastern Washington tried
to claw back.
Speaker 1: You know, you get out real quick, you would be
you know, that was an even better back when Idaho
showed up with no Colton Mitchell last night. So yeah,
you know, you second leading scorer for Idaho doesn't play.
You had to feel like you were in a good
spot there. It just didn't work out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, two games in a row, Northern Colorado I had
their team total against Idaho lost by a half because
of no Colton Mitchell and then again no Colton Mitchell's yeah,
he probably returned for the Big Sky Tournament. I would think,
I mean, Beco Johnson's a nice backup obviously senior and
did a nice job, but twenty five second chance points
you just can't give them up, and you can't get
beaten forty two to eighteen from the three point zero stuff.
I didn't handicap. I have to admit I didn't see
any of that coming here. But watching Eastern Washington tried
a defensive rebound last night, you'd have thought the opponent
was Michigan State, Arizona Duke, Michigan, somebody that just our
monsters on the boards, and Idaho's not monsters on the boards,
but they were last night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, this is like specifically in those Big
Sky games, and it's something we're gonna have to keep
an eye on for today. A lot of those Big
Sky teams I felt like just sort of showed up
to play last night, went through the motions for forty.
They know that most of those teams were locked in
to like their general seed, and it looks like they're
already for the Big Sky Tournament. The reason I bring
that up is we're going to see a lot of
teams playing tonight, teams from the Colonial, the America East,
like teams that are already the tournament field is essentially
set and now they're playing their final regular season games.
So it's it's something that I'm sure we'll bring up
on the show. Shane Russell says, UCLA plays well at home.
Let's go there first, Rob, I said, you know, we
got to pick one of these for me. I'll I'll
harp on it. The feature game for me is always
going to be an NCAA Conference tournament game over a
regular season finale. But we have to, you know, we
still have to do a show for the folks that
pay us, and I know that they would love of
a feature game from a power conference, specifically one that
they maybe they can clip. So I'm gonna be a
good company guy today, Rob. I picked the latest big
game on the board for the feature game. And I'll
start with the point Shane is making here because I
think that's ultimately the handicap. UCLA does play well at home.
And I think we're starting to see, you know, you've
had Mick cron and complain a little bit. I'll just
I just pause there for a second because you could
fill in the blank about just about anything. But he
did complain about, you know, having to travel early in
the conference season. Well, I would say, Mick, you know what,
it does work in your favor also, right, because I
think we're starting to see Rob teams struggling a little
bit to go out to the West Coast, especially as
it gets later in the season and now you have
a west coast trip. So like, if you were to
tell me, hey, I love the spot for Ucla because
it's probably a tough spot for Nevada, I think I
would agree with you there. If you were to tell
me Nevada might do what Minnesota just did to Ucla
the weekend space the floor and just torch them and
go in there and win, I'd agree with that too.
Nebraska's a top ten team if they can get over
kind of having to go on to the West Coast.
I don't see why they would would not have success here.
So how are you seeing this one, Rob? Do you
want the spot with Ucla or do you want what
I consider to be the better team with Nebraska.
Speaker 2: Yeah, ultimately that is it, right Adam, Ucla seven to
zhero straight up at home against big ten competition. Haven't
lost on this floor yet as far as this straight
up goes in today, Actually you're only asking them to
win straight up. I mean minus one and a half,
we've seen a line switch, here's some pick them still
out there. Ones shot the best you can, But essentially
you're asking UCLA to win the game, and you can
money line those one and a halfs down if you
really wanted to. But you counter that by saying, Nebraska
has been great on the road six and two against
the spread on the Big ten road. I mean, nothing
has phased these guys. And it's not like they've walked
into horrendous arenas every time they've been on the road.
I mean, cover at Michigan as a huge dog, went
straight up in places like Indiana and Ohio State. So
they've been very good on the road themselves. I think fundamentally,
when you try to handicap this one out, Nebraska does
have some edges. And it's interesting, you know, the last
game that they played. You talked about Nebraska beating USC
the other day, and obviously USC is going through some
turmoil here. Chad Baker Mazara kicked off the team. So
that win, I think they took advantage of a team
that was just in disarray. Eric Musselman's got a lot
of work to do there here. They're not necessarily facing
a team in disarray. You just hit on it a
little bit. I talked about it the other day, how
the team has responded to Mick Cronin and then they
go out and lose on the road at Minnesota. So
UCLA is a funny team. Home road dichotomy is a
real thing. But Nebraska unfazed by this stuff. Nebraska the
better shooting team. Stuff that Nebraska doesn't do well offensively, Adam,
UCLA doesn't necessarily do well defensively, which kind of negates itself.
So you can't take advantage of the fact that Nebraska
doesn't get to the free throw line a lot. You
can't take advantage of the fact that Nebraska doesn't offensive
rebound really well because UCLA doesn't do those on the
defensive side very good either. What you wind up with
is a really basically a debate. I think you ended
it pretty well, the fundamental over the situational or the
situational over the fundamental. Both teams. You know, both teams
can climb standings. Here, Nebraska's in a position where they
can be a two seed if they get you know,
they're tied with four losses with Michigan State fourteen and
four each. UCLA has the ability to climb the standings.
They're only a game behind Perdue in Wisconsin. These teams
both have two to play, so the intention the focus,
everything will be there. This is a difficult game. I
will say. One last thing is that we talk an
awful lot about Rink Mask, the pivotman for Nebraska who
stretches the floor from three point range. UCLA does have
a guy in Tyler Billadeau that is athletic enough to
go out and cover him around the arc. So that
advantage that usually helps Nebraska a little bit might not
be such an advantage here tonight. And to counter that,
Mask is going to have to guard Billadeau, and Billadoh
is extremely athletic around the perimeter too, so that matchup there,
which generally swings in Nebraska's favor, doesn't really swing in
their favor tonight. I'd probably look at this game staying
I was gonna say, staying under the total. I'm afraid.
What I'm afraid of it with that statement is game
extension at the end, close game score, foul score, foul score, foul,
and before you know what, you're at one forty four
and you lose the bit. So nothing firm here on
either side. I would say, you have to make that
decision which side of the fence you want to stand on,
And for me, yeah, I'd rather firmly stand on one
side of the fence and other games in this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of with you in terms of, you know,
we know Nebraska they are going to have some variants
in their games, right, Like the three point shooting for
Nebraska can really swing a game one way or the other.
I was just kind of going to my I just
want to go to my numbers here and see what. Yeah, like, see,
here's the thing. For me, I'm pretty much right in
line side in total, I think you can make a
very strong case for both sides. And I'm kind of
looking in the chat. I think the chat is like
sort of playing this out the way I would have
expected this conversation to play out. There is very strong
points to be made for Nebraska and there's very strong
points to be made for UCLA. If you just think,
if you're just trying to take the better basketball team here,
I think you would take Nebraska. They have proved, you know.
I don't know who was Maybe it was by you.
I was scrolling the chat. I'm like trying to watch
the chat, look into the camera, look at the odd screen.
So I miss who SAIDs some things sometimes, but whoever
made the point of Nebraska's law. Like, look at Nebraska's
losses at Michigan, and they were down two starters and
they nearly won that game. They lost by three. That's
actually a win for Nebraska. They were a ten point underdog,
they were missing two starters. They led for the majority
of that game. They lost by three to Michigan, very
very impressive. A home game against Illinois, which was a
huge revenge spot for Illinois, if you remember Nebraska went
to Illinois earlier this year and wanted the buzzer, so big,
big revenge spot. Illinois gets the win in that game. Yeah,
that's another top ten team. They lost to Purdue at
home by three in what was a very very competitive game.
And if I remember kind of a desperate spot for Purdue.
I feel like Purdue really needed a result in that game,
and they got the result at Nebraska by three. And
then finally the road lost to Iowa, where Nebraska kind
of played one of their worst games in the season,
only scored fifty two points. It was a fifty two
to fifty seven final. It's just a really off night
for Nebraska. Now, Nebraska has Iowa coming up at home
this weekend, So if you want to make the case
that Nebraska is looking ahead to that Iowa rematch because
Nebraska like Iowa. I'm sure, I am certain that Nebraska
cares more about Iowa, like the program, like I would
think the Iowa game is a bigger game than like UCLA,
who they're probably still trying to figure out why they
have to play Ucla or why they're in their league.
Like I could buy into that as well. But man, Rob,
if Nebraska comes in here and plays their game tonight,
they're probably gonna win. And that's that's why it's really
tough for me to bet. I don't like to just
bet a spot without having a lot to back it up,
and I feel that like that's what I'd be doing
with Ucla here, So it's a pass for me. Probably
shouldn't have picked this as the feature game because now, like,
if they watch this back, they're gonna be like, we
can't clip that. How are we supposed to clip that
right there? But I mean, you know, we're here to
we're here to talk basketball. And I did think that
was an intriguing discussion, So we'll move it along. I'm
sure we'll go with it. There's gonna be another big
game that comes up. I'm sure they can find something
better to clip from the show. But again it's it's
supposed to you know that this show is also supposed
to illustrate, Like, maybe that's not you know, we have
this huge late of games tonight. Maybe Nebraska UCLA isn't
the one to target. Maybe the one to target is
the one Garth wats to look at out in the
Atlantic ten tonight. So Garth says he's looking at the
A ten dayton Richmond under one forty six and a half.
I'm glad you brought this game up, Garth, because this
is this is this Richmond team ever since I saw
them play a couple of weeks ago. It is one
that I have a fairly strong opinion on. And Rob,
what I've noticed about Richmond is they are gonna chuck
threes and if they go in, they're gonna have a
chance to win, and if they don't go in, they're
gonna lose. It is it is really that simple. They
take a lot of outside shots, and my concern with Richmond,
Rob is they don't they don't make up for it
in other places. So it's like they truly are a
team that is going to live and die by the
perimeter shot. Now I have noticed that they they are
scrappy and I like how they play from behind. A
couple times this year, Richmond has dug themselves into a big,
big hole, and I thought they did a really impressive
job to get back in the game. The game I
was at against VCU, they were down twenty, came back
to within two. The following game, I believe I had
them as a five percent play. They were down fifteen,
came back and easily covered the five and a half.
So how do you do? You can? You can you
take that and make a case for the over, and
then I guess I'll give my final thoughts on the side.
I mean, I'm sorry the under Garth wants specifically says under,
but make a case for the total either way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think Garth was probably on the right
side here because of the number where it is. It's
in that higher half of the one forties, in the
lower half of the one forties. I might not agree
as much as I would with one forty six in that,
but let me just start with why I agree. It's
because Anthony Grant's team seems to have gotten back to
what Dayton basketball has been under him and what his
entire coaching career has really been, which is very pedestrian
like pace led by your defense. So he slows the game, Adam.
He cuts possessions in two different ways. A they're playing
better defense, and it's you know, it's not remarkable defense
when you go through the game logs. It's not like
they're holding teams to thirty percent shooting or less, but
it's good enough to where when you play the methodical style,
you can cut teams opportunities to score. Last six games
they or excuse me, on this five game winning streak
that they're on. Last five results. Davidson fifty nine points.
You can justify that. You could say to me, all right, Rob,
you know, David's is not a good offensive team, okay.
George Mason sixty seven points. George Mason is not a
great offensive team, Okay. Saint Louis sixty two points. Don't
come at me from either angle there. Saint Louis is
a fast paced team and extreme tempo team that scores
in bunches sixty two points, little revenge in that game,
and then GW sixty six points. These teams are all equivalent,
if not better than Richmond is offensively, So you would
have to believe that the Richmond side here, even at home,
is destined for a result somewhere between sixty four and
sixty eight. The way Dayton's playing and Dayton offensively they've
been really good as of late, but you give yourself
a lot of room there. I mean, you could win
a game seventy seven sixty eight, stay under seventy eight
sixty eight and stay under. So just from the sheer
mathematics of it, Adam, I like the fact that this
total is priced, like I say, in the upper half
of the one forties. I think it's a severe difference
between being like one forty three and a half on
forty four and a half on forty six and a half.
Makes that difference, So I'd be with Garth in this instance.
And we'll see. I mean, this is the kind of
game where if Dayton's going to falter at some point
off of this five game hot streak, it could be
here on the road at Richmond. But if they win again,
you know Vcus on deck four him and we could
see Dayton being a major player inside this conference tournament.
They can Yeah, I'm just looking at their standings now.
They can secure themselves a top four spot in the
A ten tournament with a win here, which is big
for Dayton. Richmond for what it's worth, you know, trying
to fight their way out of the bottom. But it's
not really other than it being Richmond's final home game, right.
Speaker 1: Everyone makes it in this league, rob Everyone goes in
this league, and their.
Speaker 2: Ambition would be the senior night, the final home game
is the point I was trying to make here. So
I think you've got different motivations here, both motivated, but
I think Dayton probably a little more as they try
to lock in a top four spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it'd be Dayton or under for me.
I'll just wrap it up by saying, so you've got
Richmond might have some depth issues again. Jaden Daughtry did
not play against Loyol Chicago and Jonathan Beagle has not
played in a couple of games, and they did rich Richmond.
I watched a good amount of that Richmond Loyal in
Chicago game on Saturday. Richmond just listen like they're not.
I mean, I don't think they rely on either of
those players particularly, but I do think depth matters a
little bit for Richmond like out like obviously, like they're
so the way they're set up, you're gonna have like
AJ Lopez barely you know, they try to. You know,
he's kind of there's three guys that they play like starters. Okay,
it's Lopez, argabright, and Will Johnston kind of get like
what would you would consider quote unquote starters minutes. Everyone
else kind of plays like fifteen to twenty minutes per game.
So they do so, so Mooney does have a pretty
deep rotation, and you start to take two guys out
of the rotation when you like if you're playing rob
if you're gonna play nine ten guys, but but you
sort of to take like what you would consider guy
like four or five and five or six out of
that rotation. I think you get something like you saw
over the weekend against Loyola Chicago was a team that
scored in the mid sixties, was never the right side
in that game. Loyola Chicago was always the right side
in that game. And how poor has Loyal in Chicago
been this year like historically bad a you know, a
ten team relative to what they were supposed to be
coming into the year. So I can see where you're
going with the undergarth, and I think that you make
a good point. Dayton has totally turned their season around
and and now like you can almost you know, it's
almost like they smell blood in the water a little bit,
knowing they can get into that top four. And just
look at the defensive efforts from Dayton the last couple
of games to you know, to beat like some of
the teams they've beat along the way. Saint Louis played
really good defense in that game. I'm going off memory.
I should have had this pulled up. I want to
say George Mason might have been one of them. I
know the Davidson game where we laid I laid five
as a client play with Dayton. They really locked in defensively.
Davidson couldn't really do much, scored fifty nine points. Yeah,
so here here you go. This is all. This is
all in the last two weeks. Fifty nine Davidson sixty seven,
George Mason sixty six, Ducane sixty two. Saint Louis. That
Saint Louis team that was that put that dropped the game.
I went to up at Chapis Arena. Day I think
Saint Louis dropped one hundred plus. I know we were
celebrating one hundred being on the scoreboard, everyone in the
in the arena, and then the most recent game holding
George Washington Rapio Castro back to sixty six. So this
Dayton team has figured it out and where they figured
it out. As the defensive end, you make a great
point about pace, rob when they're at their best, they're
they're kind of, you know, slowing it down. They're not
letting teams run on them. So, yeah, garthiare under makes
a lot of sense. And I kind of feel like
if Dayton shows up here, they're going to cover this
numbers is smaller than Richmond took some money. Hear that
I don't understand. I thought this would have gone the
other way. So if you're looking at a four and
a half, I think Dayton might be something I may
circle back and consider when we get off the show here,
all right, Yeah, I mean, listen, this is a this
is a good time to promo. There are so many
games today. I've got one locked in already. I'm probably
gonna give it out here on the show because I
have a feeling I'll have quite a few plays on
this board, and I've just been you know, we're at
the point in the year, late in the year where
I'm gonna take I'm gonna take my time on some
injury stuff and just like you know, making sure that
we're not gonna have a team show up and sit
three guys. Probably what you and Ski do all season
long in the NBA, just try to figure out who
the hell is playing rob because that's what I think
you might see. I think you might see some load
management this week in college basketball, So it's something to
keep an eye on. Where I was. Where I was
going with that though, it was you'll get all our
plays on the three day double, the Firepower package, or
I believe we have at least for one more day,
the March Madness Package. Do you remember what they said
about that. I probably should have read our email.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was extended out It had expired
but then got extended. So you're still able to go
ahead and purchase both of our plays in a combo package,
much like the double the CBB Firepower three Day package.
You could just have that right through the National Championship
Game and now. And those of you who have been
watching the show for it since November. You know, all
these little conference tournaments, you're probably not going to get
better info on these games than what you're getting here, Adam,
especially with mid to low majors on top of personnel
as well as anybody. So we're gonna have plays, guys,
we like this stuff, and you're probably gonna get an
exorbitant amount of plays. I will say this for myself
just speak before. Myself been in a plus column for
the entire season, but have not played anything with a
rating above three percent at wager Talk all season long,
and I can honestly say that three percent probably is.
On one hand, I could count them. But now that
we're into the conference tournament and the major tournament stuff
will be upgrading a lot of these players, you'll see
more four percent stuff out of me. So a good
time to get on board right through the end of
March madness, Adam. The only thing I don't recall is
what they're charging for a price for the two of
us with the combo pack is priced at I want
to say one ninety nine, but don't hold me to that.
I'm not positive. I'd have to go back and check
the board here to see exactly where the Detroit office
has that package price. But nonetheless, it's the busiest time
of year. It's March madness. You're gonna get a ton
of action from the two of us. And last thing
I'll say is that I'll preface this package by saying
I like it a lot, and I would like it
as a consumer simply because Adam comes from a side
perspective and I come from a totals perspective, and you
get a huge mix of both with the two of us.
So whatever you like, you'll find it here. Double the
CVB Firepower three day or full season.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think I can count on one hand how
many times we've even we've been on this either like
the same game, same side. I don't know if we've
ever been head to head, but I do know, like
I know, San Diego State was like one of the
only ones I can think of where we both had
it and thankfully it won. So you know, no complaints there,
all right. I want to go to mad max here
because this this might exemplify load management as as good
as any game on the board.
Speaker 2: Tonight.
Speaker 1: Your boy was in the building on Saturday, rob at
the O Dome, the O'Connell Center, the exact Tech arena
for Florida, just absolutely dismantling Arkansas. That was Listen. I've
been all I've been around this year. I've seen a
lot of the top twenty five in person. That was
as impressive of a performance that I've seen all season.
Any team. I've seen Duke play twice in person, seen
Arkansas play twice, Michigan State, Kansas, a lot of the
top teams, and Florida. What they did to Arkansas on
Saturday was as impressive as it gets. I stayed after
the game for the net cutting ceremony, so because Alabama.
I think it was the Alabama result them beating Tennessee
on Saturday. It created the outright conference win. So Florida
basically they announced it before the game, which I was
a little nervous of. I was like, not that I had.
I rode ct loved Florida, so obviously I was there.
I laid the nine and a half with him just
for some action while I was there, and I was like,
they literally made an announcement before the game like if
Florida wins, they win the SEC. Everyone goes nuts. Then
they said to hang around after the game. I'm like, oh,
I was like, did they just indirectly tell you that
they're gonna celebrate the SEC win before the game rob
By fifteen minutes into that game, the celebration they you know,
they had shirts. I don't know how they did. So
someone needs to explain to me how they already had
this stuff. They had the shirts, the hats ready to go.
They must have been generic. I didn't get a good
look at them. They must have just said, like SEC champions.
But the point is they celebrated that win. They cut
the nets down. Todd Golden addressed the crowd. He's there
with the shirt on the backwards hat thanking the fans.
They now come in tonight as a twenty three. They're
a million point favored against Mississippi State. I would be
shocked if like half of their starters don't get the
night off. I already think Thomas Hoe might either not
player barely play. There's there's some guys that are probably
gonna rest here. And if they're not gonna rest, like
you're you're likely gonna see Golden like play everyone like that.
That would I'd be I'd be really surprised if this
is like, especially if like let's say they get up
fifteen or twenty. The crowd went insane. The people that
were still there, which was most of them. When they
brought in the seven to nine guy at the end
of the game against Arkansas, I forget his name. He
sees literally eight feet tall, can barely move, but he's
on the Florida bench. Point I'm trying to make here
is mad. Max says he really likes Florida. I don't
know that this is a a duke scenario like last
night with NC State. I think this could be like
ause because I believe correct me if I'm wrong, Rob,
But I think Florida heads to Kentucky this weekend. So
to me, like this will be a celebration of basketball
for Florida where the entire team plays, especially the seniors.
The suit manager who doesn't even have a uniform, might
end up in this game for Florida, and then they
will take the Kentucky game this weekend serious because that
you know that that's just I think that would be
in the name of like staying sharp. I don't know,
I just like, under those circumstances, I just don't think
I could lay twenty three. But the question is, do
you have the do you have the guts to take
Mississippi State. It feels a lot like Troy Louisiana Monroe
for from the other day, which Monroe ended up cashing
as a big dog. So what do you do with
this game here for mad Max, Yeah.
Speaker 2: It's hard. Just from that situational aspect, Mississippi State has
shown you the last two games they're more than capable
of being beaten by this number in a great spot.
I would say great, because I don't know that Mississippi
State ever has a great spot. But in a favorable
spot against Missouri the other day, they lose by twenty four,
and prior to that they've lost by twenty five. So
you've got two consecutive games where they've lost by twenty
three plus, which is what you need tonight to go
ahead and get to get a point spread cover ninety
one plus out of Florida. I think could be somewhat
in danger because of exactly what you said. You would
expect everybody to play here. It's Florida's final home game.
They've already done the work necessary to obtain the number
one seed in the conference tournament. This is you know,
you call it let down, call it sandwich, call it
whatever you want. It's one of those spots where you
just don't know that Florida is going to have maximum
focus in this game where Mississippi State will come to play.
They're not very good, but they're going to play the
entire time, and Josh Hubbard is still capable of leading
the team to a point spread cover the ninety one
and a half. I do think just comes into issue
because of the fact that you're probably not going to
see a host of starters on the floor for Florida
the last five minutes of this game, four minutes of
this game, and when you're looking for buckets and you're
trusting the deep, deep reserves, the low end reserves to
get you those buckets, it's tough. So I think this
is probably one of those spots where you can't qualify
it as a situational letdown off the high from Saturday,
off the energetic performance of Saturday, that same energy probably
not applied here by Florida, who knows they can roll
the balls out and win this basketball game. So to me,
for anybody who does watch the NBA Show with myself
and Ski Profit, we had the same instance last night
on an NBA level with Houston and the Washington Wizards.
It just was, you know, it was Houston concluding a
road trip with a couple of days for rest after that,
and then a big game on Thursday night, and you
saw it play out double digit Favorite wins by five.
Kind of the same thing here. It's your favorite that's
not gonna win by five. They could probably win by
fourteen fifteen. Twenty two and a half is a lot
to ask in this particular situation, as far as I'm concerned,
and again it correlates to get ninety two is a
lot to ask in this situation. You might be better off.
Was it Max who asked that question? I would say this,
you might be better off isolating your bet to a
first half bet, knowing that you'll probably get to Florida
starters in full force for the first half, and if
they don't come out half asleep or not caring, then
you'll get You'll get exactly what you're asking for here,
probably Florida points. I'm trying to look real fast forward.
Turn it over to you, Adam, what the first half
team total is here for Florida And I'm showing forty
four and a half, So it's been bet down from
forty five and a half to forty four and a half.
But I think max my best, my inclination would be
try something first half rather than full game.
Speaker 1: Jacob Hepger says, Mississippi State is the play. I agree.
If I was listen here, I tried to. So I'm
trying to like manually tweak my number with like who
I think is going to be out and like how
much it matters and who I think, you know, even
though if they're not out they may play sparingly. I'm
I'm coming out up with eighteen and a half as
what the number should be for this game. So again,
as you get as you know, Rob, I always say this,
the higher you get away from pick right, the less
like a four point difference in my number. If it's
like the spread is one and I'm at five, that's
a big deal to me. Once you get up in
the twenties, it's it's not as big of a deal,
but but that is where I'm at, like eighteen and
a half on Florida all things considered, So there's some
twenty three is out there right now, like that that's
not a bad bet. Listen, you you could be. It's
one of those ones where you could look really stupid
when it's all said and done. I think back to
my Notre Dame bet from a couple of weeks ago
against Duke. But I'll say this again, I don't think
that's I don't think this is the same scenario. I
really do think Florida, this might be a televised practice
rob and then let the game that they actually care
a little bit about is this weekend in Lexington. So
I will Jacob and I are right in line, he goes,
He goes, I uh, I wish I could show you
all the papers I write down all my predicted spreads.
I of Florida minus eighteen and a half. Well, we're
right in line with that. That is uh, I'm right
on eighteen and a half with you, and it would
be Mississippi State or pass. All right, do you know,
let's I'm gonna take the floor here, I'm gonna give
out my parlay leg and this is gonna be a
client play for me and oh yeah, there it is,
so all right. So I I I wish I did
this ten minutes ago. But what I thought was gonna
happen happened, And so here. This is so, here's what
we're gonna do. I for for the parlays. Because we
have we have a little ground to make up. We're
gonna go three teamers the rest of the way because
I think we I want to get a full payoff
on our parlay. It's gonna be me, it's gonna be you,
and it's gonna be someone that I think made a
really smart point in the chat. Okay, that's our that's
gonna be our three team parlay. I I have not
decided yet. It might be Jake, it might be Jacob
because our numbers land the same on Mississippi State. I
haven't decided how much I want to piss you guys
off yet. So let we're gonna we'll revisit that because
twenty two and a half Mississippi State might be in there.
By you says by you might buy. You might take
this over and be like, no, I'm giving the third legout,
which is which is fine because he's he's I still
owe him one. But the point is, we're going three
teamers the rest of the way. I'm gonna give out
a four percenter right now. I played New Jersey Institute
of Technology plus five and a half. Now, the reason
I wish that I said I gave it out a
few minutes ago is UNBC got bet further. I thought
I was getting the best of the numbers, so UNBC
got bet up and it actually went to six and
a half. And I said, man, I hope that's a headbake,
And sure enough it was, because it's back down to
five and a half or five. I played it at
five and a half. That six and a half was
clearly someone manipulating the extra board. At nine forty five,
nine fifty am, that was quickly gone. So so Colin
Gregory says, NJIT plus five and a half for the parlate, No,
take the five and a half. I'm not giving out
the money line. We are going to take the five
and a half here because I do think that spread
is important. And so I want to set this game
up because Rob, this is the mindset that you need
to go into tonight for a lot of these games
like this handicap can be applied to a lot of
these games. Okay, UNBC has won their league, They've already
won the one seed. Okay, they've they've wrapped up the
outright America East title. For this year and they wrapped
up the number one seed in their conference tournament. We
talked about it on Saturday. I gave out UNBC on
Saturday on the Show with Kelly. They won by a million.
They wrapped up the league. Okay, now they have to
go on the road to the the I think it's
the Joel and Dianne Bloom Wellness and Events Center. I'm
going off the top of my head. They call it
the weck Great Building. I put up my walk through
that building. I couldn't believe, can't believe how big it is,
can't believe how nice it is. I'm over here watching
ESPN Plus thinking nj i T plays in some little gym,
no rob This thing was built like only like maybe
seven years ago. It was awesome. They are gonna host.
So here's the situation with nji T, which I think
is just as important as UNBC not not having much
to play for. Here there is a scenario where they
get the two seed, which, of course in the America
East that matters because this tournament goes highest seed host
reseed at the end of each round. So remember America East,
higher seed, host reseed at the end of each round,
so every seed is very very important because that too.
Not only is that to the potentially hosting a semi final,
but it like you you know, it could mean you
host the final or not. So again, they would need
Vermont to lose, but still it's it's possible. What I
think is more important here for NJIT rob is just
playing a good game because this team. I was at
the Vermont game. I thought they played good enough to win.
They didn't get a single call down the stretch. Vermont
ends up winning by like six. It was a game
that NJIT was competitive in throughout and the last couple
like over the weekend, they got crushed by Briant. I
just think that, like I'm not I feel like they
got a little bit tired. They went on the road.
I believe that was a road game. My point is
this NJIT, just for the vibes, needs to play good tonight, right, Like,
I really think you'll love this. Their head coach is
a former Seaton Hall legend, Grant bill Meyer. Big big dude.
He was on I think he was on the Shaheen
Holloway Seaton Hall teams back in the day. It's like
he's like six' eleven and the guy goes absolutely nuts
on the. Sideline it's just funny watching tall dudes get
pissed off and like freak. Out it's just a little bit.
Different the point is This BILL, njit in my, opinion
needs some good mojo going into the conference. Tournament this
is the best season they've ever. Had they are at
worst here the three. Seed someone, says Does rob, Talk
hold on a, second this is this is my parlay,
Leg SO i will let him speak in a. Second
they're at worse the three. Seed they could be as
high as the. TWO i think they need to play
well just to have some positive momentum going into The Common.
Tournament So New Jersey institute Of technology plus five and
a half is my leg in a Parlay David, Silva,
Yes i'm Giving rob the floor in the. Second rob,
either do you want To if you have anything to
add to this, game, Great if, not and you want
to go into your parlay, leg we can do that.
Too it's up to.
Speaker 2: You, WELL i don't want to take away from. ANYTHING
i couldn't get any more in depth about nj it
other than just to fortify the fact that you made
that there are games that are going to be played this,
week including, tonight where there is an importance level to
one side and zero importance level to the other. Side
and unless it's a rivalry, game which like last Night's
Eastern Washington idaho, game it didn't matter in the standings
or the seedings for those Two Big sky, teams but
it is a rivalry game that's a little, different then
you'll get full. Focused that's what you got last night
eighty one seventy seven. Final but in games where there's
no rivalry to be had and one team can and
the other team doesn't about their position in the upcoming conference,
tournament then you know the situational plays are. There here
you're getting a home. Underdog So i'm all for everything
That adam just. Said we could move on, though AND
i don't know necessarily for a parlay. Leg just pick
somebody out of the, chat you know, what let me.
Go i'll.
Speaker 1: Go, yeah you need to go because they don't want
to hear me talk right. NOW i JUST i just
went way too long on NJ I. T so we
need to do your parlay.
Speaker 2: Leg, guys, Listen they're not going to get any N
J I t AND U Nbc Inside talk on any other.
Show so obviously you can take that as a as
a added bonus. Here i've Had i've got so many
games on this card THAT i like, tonight and they'll
all be. Up you, Know i'll probably have four on
board my five. Dollars tuesday play is already up for
those who are, in it's already. Up But i'm gonna
go against my grain and just to show THAT i
am not an absolute homer in any, way shape or,
Form i'm gonna go Play oklahoma tonight Against. Missouri oklahoma
in this instance is a one point. Favorite no they're.
Not they're one and a. Half. Two best you can, get,
guys is one and a half mostly twos out. There
let me go ahead and check money line on this
approximately thirty five. CENTS i would just assume lay the. Two,
listen this is as big a revenge game as there
is on the board, tonight And oklahoma is the team
at home seeking the. Revenge missouri Beat oklahoma in. OVERTIME
a little while, back when out of, Desperation Mark, mitchell
who is not known for three point shooting power forward For,
missouri race down the, floor down. Two heaved up at
three at the. Buzzer it went In missoo wins eighty
eight eighty. Seven, oklahoma in typical this, season ends up
on the short end of a game where they played
hard and just did not come out with a. Win
they have blown countless amount of games in the second
half this. Year Gayser oklahoma has been competitive with his
entire sec and just didn't come up with the. Victory
but recently they've started to get a couple of these,
wins AND i think their mindset tonight is going to
be to avenge what happened In Columbia. Missouri LIKE i
said about a month maybe five weeks, ago they certainly
showed that day that they've got the talent to play With.
Missoo maszoo comes off a twenty four point pounding Of
Mississippi state the other, day AND i think What missouri
has done overall now to this point is enough on
the resume to get them. IN i Think missoo was
kind of, pushing, pushing pushing to get into the. TOURNAMENT
i think they're safely in. NOW i don't check these
bracket tala just rankings every single, day but those of
you who, do you'll probably Find missouri settled in the.
Tournament by now got enough quality wins that the road,
win even though it was Against Mississippi, state probably helps
a little bit because it was on THE sec. Road but,
here you, know one Thing i've noticed as of, Late,
adam Is Nigel packs beginning to play and the way
we would expect him to. Play Nigel pack was off
for a majority of the season as far as shooting has,
gone but there's been a couple of instances here recently
Where Nigel pack and the guard played For oklahoma has been. Outstanding,
again it's more situational, spot but the fundamentals come into
it because having watched that game In missouri the first time,
around you could See oklahoma has every ingredient to Beat
missouri and probably should have won that. Day So i'm
gonna play the revenge angle here With oklahoma the short
priced home favorite to atone for what. HAPPENED i don't
Foresee Mark mitchell throwing in another three at the buzzer
to defeat this. TEAM i Think oklahoma right now trying
to make some strides hitting at the conference. Tournament, actually you,
know there was a point in the, Season, adam AND
i think THAT i probably was not alone on this.
Bandwagon WHERE i felt, like you know, what oh you
has suffered so many heartbreaking losses that they're just gonna.
Surrender but give them, credit the team has not surrendered
at all and still continue to play. Hard so for
me one more, time the parlay leg is gonna Be
oklahoma minus the, two because that's the prevalent number. Here,
again if you shop, well you can find one and a,
Half's BUT i Like Porter moses a bunch here to
come up and win this.
Speaker 1: Game you could for the parlay say Go oklahoma money
line if you wanted, to LIKE i mean that, way
it would just take out because you have one and a,
half you have, twos and, then like you, KNOW i feel,
like in case it goes to two and a half
or three later in the, day do you want to
just Say oklahoma money?
Speaker 2: LINE i looked it up to and THINK i saw
one thirties across the board mostly so is probably. Great,
yeah why don't we go ahead and do that money?
Line play owe you, sooners you, know get in The
sooner schooner and right off to victory.
Speaker 1: Here someone just, said does add and. Talk i'll tell you,
what you know What i'm Gonna we usually get to
six games on the show in. Depth but Because rob
did such a good job of breaking that one down
AND i have nothing to add, There i'm gonna not
talk about that game BECAUSE i feel LIKE i would
just be rehashing what he just. Said and we're gonna
get you an extra game. Today So, ROB i am
going to let me go to The Star chat make
Sure i've got, Okay, yeah we'll do. This here's what
we're gonna. Do i'm gonna go to a conference tournament
game because we need some conference tournament talk on this,
show and then we're gonna finish up with the game
Mad max has recommended for. Us SO i want to
talk about The Patriot league, tournament which starts. Tonight and
the REASON i want to discuss this, Game, rob is
you a couple of weeks ago that we were probably
getting a rematch Of Army bucknell when they played at ELEVEN.
Am we both agreed that the over was probably the right.
SIDE i Remember Colin gregory really Liked bucknell in that
game they won as a three and a half point,
underdog and you were. Correct we have the rematch tonight
in The Patriot league first. Round that means the four
worst teams in The Patriot league will play, tonight it
is in this, matchup, specifically is going to Be bucknell Hosting.
Army the REASON i want to bring this game up
is Because i'm looking at the total starting to drop
and that makes absolutely no sense to, me Because bucknell
is gonna play zone against a team that only. Shoots
they did it the Other REMEMBER i texted YOU i
THINK i was driving somewhere AND i was, like that overseemed,
easy AND i pulled up the box score AND i was,
Like army shot forty five threes in that. Game AND
i went back and looked and, basically buck now'll just
let him shoot, it which is kind of an issue
because All army wants to do is shoot. Threes so
it's almost like you're letting them do what they want to,
do but at the same, time like they couldn't Defend
bucknell at. All what changes, Here? Roby why would we
not see the same game we saw a couple weeks.
Speaker 2: AGO i, mean that's a that's a million dollar. QUESTION
i don't, know because it's a conference tournament, game and
because it's single, elimination and because perhaps you know those
who have pushed this game down figure, that and again
we talked about conference tournament handicapping. Yicity it does get
a little more defensive because everybody knows that once you lose,
this your season is. Done but to your, Point army
shot forty five threes in that game in nineteen. Twos
forty five threes nineteen. Twos that's. Crazy but the first
game is shot thirty one. Threes it's what you're gonna
get out Of, army and just to forty five a
little bit. Here the first game went, overtime but it
was one sixty at the end of regulation one, sixty
it was eighty, eighty and then you had one forty
eight in the. Rematch everybody knew what the other team could.
Do you've got game film of the other, team and
you still make it to one forty. Eight so it's, Hard,
adam unless you have just, miserable miserable three point shooting
here to understand why you would push this total down
into a. Range. NOW i just talked earlier about how
the upper half of the one, forties to me at,
least is different than the lower half of the one.
Forties you've come from one forty six down to one
forty three and a half at this, point which makes
this kind of playable at the one forty three and
a half. Range money in On army in this, instance
which makes it even more head. Scratching why would you
be Betting army in Under if you're Betting, army you
think they're gonna make? Threes so, yeah i'd agree with
you here that the line move is kind of, weird
and why would you expect anything other than another game
that can make it to one forty?
Speaker 1: Four?
Speaker 2: Now is all you're asking for at this point is
one forty. Four SO i would definitely subscribe to that.
Speaker 1: PLAY i think Buck nell is getting bet right, now
WHICH i WHICH i agree. With IF i had to
bet a side in this, one it would be Buck
nell for for the and the REASON i would make
that play, well they're at remember they're at, home they're
hosting this, game so that certainly. Helps but, two they
they get the easier points, right so it's like they're
going to be able to get to the rim On
army and score at the rim because they have a
couple of. Bigs remember maybe a month AGO i, said
well this is Buck, nell this team. Has last year
they Had Noah, williamson who was as good of a
rim defender as you're gonna find in this, league and you,
know as good of a post player as you're gonna
find in The Patriot, league and they really don't have
that this, year but they've over the course of the
season Buck nell's had some reasonably good post play emerge
for this. Level, remember like you, know in the context
of the Pay, league which is what happens in this
league sometime because a lot of these teams go out
and play non conference games against opponents that are always
better than. Them so sometimes it takes you until Late,
february mid to Late february to see like a team
has guys that are good Against Patriot league. Opposition Aimon
dorris is that. Guy he Is he's Not Noah, williamson
but he's. Sticked he's six, eleven, Right, like he's still
a six to eleven guy that is that has shown
the ability to score at the rim sixteen point one
points per. Game so the WAY i look at this, Game,
ROB i Think bucknell's gonna get easier, points and they're at.
HOME i actually am a little bit. OFF i Think
i'm closer to. Five so there's still two and a
half's out there. ALONE i don't think they're gonna be
there very. LONG i think you're gonna have to lay,
three but it's one That i'm definitely considering as far
as the total is. Concerned there is a scenario Where
army just bombs threes and hits, them which probably puts this.
Over so we're, saying, hey we're still looking for a
third leg of the. PARLAY i, mean we could go
cut IF i don't know how much you like this,
over but it's an option you don't have to decide right.
NOW i want to talk about one more game before
we decide on, that BECAUSE i think you're gonna have
an opinion. HERE i have an opinion, here and like
half of the chat is asking me about this specific,
game which also happens to be what Mad max donated.
About so this seems like the logical place to finish
up the. Show, Alabama. Georgia, tonight Mad max is leaning
over one hundred and seventy nine and a. HALF i
TEXTED ct like an hour ago AND i was, like
probably a casual two hundred in this game. TONIGHT i was, joking,
obviously but, like you, know a couple weeks, Ago, rob
we were laughing at how high The Alabama arkansas total
was and it went over with like literal no. ISSUE
i think there was what were we? Mind it was
in the mid one eighties or something crazy like.
Speaker 2: That it gets tark.
Speaker 1: As, yeah, Listen georgia's got guards that are gonna be
able to score. Here and if you subscribe to the
theory That alabama just put a lot of effort into
that comeback win Over tennessee and they don't come out
like balls to the wall defensively, Here i'm inclined to
agree With max that this one's probably gonna go. Over
what do you Think Alabama georgia do you have a
side opinion in this one as? Well?
Speaker 2: Well two things, HERE, A i did cash a ticket
On georgia team total over Against South carolina the other
day they put up eighty. Seven but bigger than that
is the last four games Since Jeremiah wilkinson returned to
the lineup For, georgia they have reverted back to basically
what they were early on this, season where they just
scored like there was a lull In georgia for a
while Without. Wilkinson but Since wilkinson's returned the last four.
Games they've absolutely been on fire eighty, six ninety, one
eighty and eighty Seven alabama ever Since Charles bediaco was
finally ruled ineligible to play For alabama. Anymore it just
seems to me that they took their return natural form
Natural NATO's form back and started scoring Now. Saturday Because
i'm such a bounce back. Player the game Against tennessee
is not like Any alabama. Game when you play a
game that low, Scoring alabama doesn't, score they hold their opponents.
DOWN i always look for the bounce, back And alabama
has an opponent here much different Than, tennessee an opponent
that will run with. Them SO i looked at this.
Immediately i'm not going to disagree with over one seventy
nine and a half, because like, You, adam after seeing
That arkansas, game it just it looks like the same exact,
game especially With wilkinson back For, georgia and they PROBABLY
i wouldn't even say. Probably they are less of a
defensive team Than arkansas Is. Georgia So alabama could be
to one hundred plus on their, Own georgia could get
to ninety. Plus you know their, sides SO i, WOULD
i would totally agree with over one seventy nine and
a half.
Speaker 1: Here, YEAH i mean BECAUSE i DON'T i don't See
georgia just getting like stop after stop Against. ALABAMA i.
DON'T i don't, think, like let's put it this. Way
if IF i wasn't so concerned That bama was a
little bit gassed from, playing you, know from finishing The
tennessee game the way they finished, It i'd be like
probably beyond Just i'd just be laying the money line With.
Bama it was like One bama minus, one Like i've
GOT i actually make them more like minus. Five but
the REASON i haven't bet it yet is my concern
that this might this might be a spot where they
allow some points To georgia and suddenly we're in a
game like a Like Abama. Arkansas that's like that's a.
Game and then of course you're Factoring georgia at home
the game probably meaning more To, Georgia georgia having the home,
fans and it's like then you're starting to be, Like,
okay DO i want to play into that? Spot but
like for, me it's pretty strong leans here To bama
and the, over AND i Guess i'll throw it to.
You so we have three options for The SO i
actually want to address this. FIRST i gotta address this,
First chris. MULHERN i got, listen this is not like
a negative, thing BUT i WANT i want to make sure,
that like if you're new to the, show like people
know what they're getting with this. Show he, says the
show is can't misvalue. Place where are the? Place, okay
here's the thing this, show like where are the? Plays
i'm just going to, promote like we work for Wager.
Talk we sell our. Picks, Okay so like we come
on here an hour every single day give in depth
information about six or seven. Games today we did. Seven
i've already given out a PICK i could sell on the,
website So New Jersey institute Of technology plus five and a.
Half that's a four. Percent any other day it's a
twenty five dollars pick on the. Site today we would
sell it for five because It's. Tuesday rob gave Out
oklahoma as a. PICK i don't know if that's a
client player him or, not but he gave that as a.
Pick we're gonna find a third one we agree on
in a. Second and then we gave opinions in the other.
One i'll say this till on blue in the. Face
if you just want the, picks head on order to Wager.
Talk we have a great special up that gets you
all of the. Picks that is the way to get the.
Picks there's never a scenario Where i'm coming on the
show And rob is coming on the show and we're
just rattling off fifteen to twenty opinions because we sell
like otherwise we Don't rob AND i don't, eat so
it's like it's never gonna. Happen so if you're looking
for the picks wager talk dot, com there's specials on
both of our. Page that's how you get the. Picks
if you're looking for an hour of in depth discussion
on six or seven, games you're in the right. Spot
and look at. That you do get. Picks Because i've
already given out a play That i'm betting that's a
play for my. Clients rob gave, It. OKLAHOMA i, AGAIN
i didn't catch up that was a client player or.
Not and now we're gonna we're gonna figure out a
third one, Here. Rob So i've got three. Options, Okay
we're either gonna ride With jake On Mississippi state or
we're gonna do one of these. Totals i'm gonna let
you give your input on which one of those options
you like, best Because i'm kind of Like i'm on the.
FENCE i think all three are good.
Speaker 2: Options, YEAH i would say IF i were to list
them in pecking, order and we're talking about very slim
variance between these three. ADAMS i was just gonna make
the point About army And, bucknell Where Ryan curry And
Jackson bell two. Guys you shoot a lot of. Threes For,
army we're three of. Twenty last, game three of, twenty
those two, guys and that game still got to one forty.
Eight good reason to play that thing over one forty
three and a. Half but IF i have my way in,
this my say would probably be the safest that is
The Alabama georgia game over one seventy nine and a.
HALF i think that's the. SAFEST i probably Like Mississippi
state plus the, best BUT i don't feel it's the
safest because you have the ability to get absolutely destroyed
if things don't go your, way AND i would prefer
some first half. Stuff so my two cents Is Alabama
georgia over one seventy nine and a.
Speaker 1: HALF i was gonna, say you you basically you did
not help at, all right, there you just you basically
said all three are, good they're all pretty much. Even,
yeah let's let's do. That then, collinsays not gonna, overthink
And i'm taking a two unit On bama tunion and
On bama team total. Over, colin if you like The
bama team total, OVER i kind of Think georgia's team
total over gets there as. Well that's kind of what's
keeping me Off. Bama so let's do. That let's Go Bama.
Georgia what do we say over one seventy nine and a?
Speaker 2: Half you coin is? That? What? Yeah one seventy nine
and a half unless it's moved since we've been, talking
let me, see but it, Was, yeah it's one seventy
nine and a.
Speaker 1: Half all, right let's do. That that's the three teamer for.
TODAY i think THAT'S i like that a. LOT I
my gut tells me that we're gonna be laughing about
how many points there are in This Alabama georgia, game
similar to The arkansas. Game and if it's, CLOSE i
mean it's a one point. Spread you've always got the
chance that it goes o t just like That Arkansas
bama game. Did even though they never needed overtime for that,
over that was over. Easily so we have hit the hour.
Mark we appreciate you guys tuning, in And i'm not
trying to be like you, Know i'm just trying to,
say like, clearly like we. Can't there's there's reasons we
can't just rattle off twenty opinions because then no one
would buy our. Picks so at any, rate the three
team are for, today WHICH i feel good about this. One.
Rob i've got a client play a four percent play
A New Jersey institute Of technology The highlanders plus five
and a half at the at The weck tonight In,
Newark New. Jersey, rob you're gonna go With oklahoma money
and then it seems like we all agree that there's
gonna be points galore In Alabama. Georgia so we are
gonna Go Alabama georgia over one seventy nine and a
Half oklahoma money LINE njit plus five and a. Half
that's our three teamer. Today let's run it up this.
Month we will be back tomorrow morning for more full
Court press ten Am, Eastern, sorry ten Am. Eastern right
here on The wager talk to YouTube channel five Dollars,
tuesday check out all the handicappers five dollars, picks and
we will see you guys tomorrow