Speaker 1: And Hi, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast
Speaker 1: on this Thursday. Today is the sixth day of November,
Speaker 1: Year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five. My name is
Speaker 1: Tom Sullivan. And well here we are day anybody counting. Well,
Speaker 1: I am a day thirty seven of the shutdown, and
Speaker 1: it's interesting to watch. We don't get to see what's
Speaker 1: going on behind the scenes. You know, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of people brainstorming trying to figure out what to do.
Speaker 1: I was talking with a friend of mine earlier today
Speaker 1: and she has this theory that she's because I had.
Speaker 1: I told her about this theory that well, they're not
Speaker 1: going to solve this until after the election. That was
Speaker 1: two days ago. And I said, they'll wait a couple
Speaker 1: of days and then all the ramifications from the shutdown
Speaker 1: won't have anything to do with politics or elections or
Speaker 1: anything like that, so they'll go ahead and solve whatever
Speaker 1: their problems are. So give it a couple of days
Speaker 1: to make a little space in there and make it
Speaker 1: look like it's not tied to the elections. Well, here
Speaker 1: we are a couple nks later, and there's nothing but
Speaker 1: my friend's viewpoint is this, I mean, it's pure speculation, folks,
Speaker 1: I don't know what else to do with it at
Speaker 1: this point. She says that what they're doing, especially with
Speaker 1: the airlines now that they are going through and saying
Speaker 1: we're going to be cutting back on ten percent of
Speaker 1: the flights in four different airports and then forty well
Speaker 1: we'll get into that in a minute here, but that
Speaker 1: will really cause all kinds of consternation. It will be
Speaker 1: a big nuisance. And then after everybody's all upset about
Speaker 1: that for a day or two, then the White House
Speaker 1: will come along and solve all this by saying, fine,
Speaker 1: we will sit down and negotiate the extension to the
Speaker 1: Obamacare ACA, and then it will all come to an
Speaker 1: end because they have to look like heroes. They've got
Speaker 1: to come out of this looking they both need off ramps.
Speaker 1: They're both stuck, and so that will be the White
Speaker 1: House will say, Okay, we will sit down and negotiate.
Speaker 1: And what they're already talking about, there's a number of
Speaker 1: people already talking about the fact that they are talking
Speaker 1: about maybe instead of the one point five trillion dollars number,
Speaker 1: that's a ten year number on the if the subsidies
Speaker 1: for people on Obamacare or were boosted or were not
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to expire at the end of this year,
Speaker 1: they would not expire. It would cost one and a
Speaker 1: half trillion dollars over the next ten years. So then
Speaker 1: you will what about if we just do one year,
Speaker 1: or maybe we do two. And that's so typical of Washington.
Speaker 1: They love to kick the can down the road. This
Speaker 1: thing was supposed to be a temporary help for people
Speaker 1: that were on Obamacare during COVID when they did not
Speaker 1: have jobs, a lot of businesses were closed. It was
Speaker 1: let us help you out through this crisis. Well, the
Speaker 1: crisis is pretty much behind us, isn't it. So they're
Speaker 1: going to kick it down the road another I don't
Speaker 1: know what you watch, it'll be a one or two,
Speaker 1: maybe three year deal, and that's how they're going to
Speaker 1: get out of this. In fact, Josh Gothheimer, who is
Speaker 1: a Congressman from New Jersey, he's a Democrat. What was
Speaker 1: the name of that committee, he was on the Solution
Speaker 1: Committee or something. It was made up a handful of
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans and they got together to try to
Speaker 1: solve some of the political problems that Congress faces. Anyway,
Speaker 1: here's a little bit from Josh Gothheimer and listen to
Speaker 1: sounds like he's kind of looking for something like a
Speaker 1: couple of years huge.
Speaker 2: Hit on our economy.
Speaker 3: You're talking about twenty percent of the nation's GDP runs
Speaker 3: through this region. It just puts a finer point on
Speaker 3: the fact that and as the President admitted himself, as
Speaker 3: you just reported, that the shutdown was caused by the Republicans, right,
Speaker 3: admitted that the shutout was hurting Republicans. That we saw
Speaker 3: that on Tuesday night, very clearly the public has said enough.
Speaker 3: And what we're doing and why I'm continuing to talk
Speaker 3: to my colleagues across the aisle every single day in
Speaker 3: the House, in the Senate is to figure out how
Speaker 3: we can get the government back open and of course,
Speaker 3: at the same time address what people made it clear
Speaker 3: Tuesday night that they're concerned about, which is the rising
Speaker 3: prices across the board that's killing them.
Speaker 1: So you hear where his point is he's talking about.
Speaker 1: The President did go talk to the Republicans in the
Speaker 1: Senate and said, man, the shutdown is really hurting Republicans.
Speaker 1: Everybody always blames the Republicans regardless, but even the President
Speaker 1: admitted it, and his answer was to get rid of
Speaker 1: the filibuster, and nobody wants to do that. That is
Speaker 1: not a good idea, and it's the first time that
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans in the Senate have bucked the
Speaker 1: President on his ideas. So Josh Gosheimer says, while this
Speaker 1: is obviously hurting Republicans, so there's going to be some
Speaker 1: give on their part.
Speaker 3: You know, whether it's healthcare insurance premiums, which we know
Speaker 3: are up massively and we'll go up next year on
Speaker 3: average about eighteen percent in Jersey. If you're on the
Speaker 3: ACA and getting those subjects and extra help on those
Speaker 3: tax credits, you're talking about one hundred and seventy five
Speaker 3: percent increase plus energy costs and childcare bills.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: People need some help, and the tariffs aren't doing it.
Speaker 3: And what we're clear is they say to the President enough,
Speaker 3: the country's going in the wrong direction. You've got to
Speaker 3: change things. So that's what we're focused on doing, is
Speaker 3: helping people out.
Speaker 1: So he believes he's helping people out, and a lot
Speaker 1: of people in Congress are of the same thought, but
Speaker 1: they're actually hurting people. We've talked about this before. Every
Speaker 1: time they subsidize something. What the easiest one to understand
Speaker 1: is when they give college students loans student loans, they're
Speaker 1: subsidizing their education. It's got to be paid back some
Speaker 1: day theoretically. But what they do is makes it easier
Speaker 1: than for the universities to raise the students to wish.
Speaker 1: And it's the same in this is that as the
Speaker 1: government keeps subsidizing people on the government health insurance plan,
Speaker 1: the insurance companies just raise their prices. It's not helping
Speaker 1: anybody other than the insurance companies. And I'm sure there's
Speaker 1: some of them in Congress that know that and are
Speaker 1: more than happy to accept the campaign contributions from the
Speaker 1: insurance companies. But there's a lot of them like Josh Gothheimer,
Speaker 1: who thinks he's helping people out, and all he is
Speaker 1: doing is helping the insurance companies out. But there are
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans licking their wounds. After Tuesday, Democrats
Speaker 1: ran the board And I got an email the other
Speaker 1: day from somebody who thought that saying the word affordability
Speaker 1: was fake and wasn't real and all that. No affordability
Speaker 1: is I think the issue that came out of the
Speaker 1: election on Tuesday and I've heard it before the election.
Speaker 1: People are screaming about the fact that prices are too high.
Speaker 1: Now you've got gas prices are down. That's one of
Speaker 1: your economic indicators for most people. But they're not back
Speaker 1: to where they were back in Trump one point zero,
Speaker 1: so they've come down. The other big economic indicator is
Speaker 1: the grocery store. In grocery prices by and large are up.
Speaker 1: People also have had pay raises, and companies feel like
Speaker 1: they've had to in order to get people to work
Speaker 1: for them, give them pay raises, and those pay raises
Speaker 1: have been inflationary. They drive up the cost of the employer,
Speaker 1: and so the employer raises the price of their products.
Speaker 1: So it's a vicious circle. And the latest example of
Speaker 1: it was Tuesday, people said, I don't like what's going on.
Speaker 1: When you look at the polling about President Trump. Approval
Speaker 1: ratings are down into the mid thirties, while on the
Speaker 1: economy they're down to like forty percent approve of the economy.
Speaker 1: That doctor Donald Trump is doing a good job on
Speaker 1: the economy. That's the same as as Joe Biden, and
Speaker 1: back when he bailed out of running for a second term,
Speaker 1: his approval rating was forty Donald Trump's is forty one
Speaker 1: on the economy. So people are looking at going You
Speaker 1: said you were going to get you were going to
Speaker 1: get prices down, the cost of living was going to
Speaker 1: go down, and it hasn't And that I think has
Speaker 1: a great deal to do with the election results on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: And also they don't know what to do in the
Speaker 1: Congress because they don't want to upset the president. But
Speaker 1: they're hearing this from their constituents as well. Steph Knight
Speaker 1: is a reporter for Axios, and she was asked about
Speaker 1: what she is hearing is she wanders in the halls
Speaker 1: of the US capital. Have there been any signs of
Speaker 1: somebody coming to an agreement?
Speaker 5: You know, at the start of the week on Monday,
Speaker 5: it seemed that we were moving pretty quickly towards some
Speaker 5: kind of a deal. We started getting a framework for
Speaker 5: what a deal would look like, what it seemed that
Speaker 5: at least a handful of moderate Democrats would be willing
Speaker 5: to vote for to open the government and move forward
Speaker 5: on some of these other issues.
Speaker 2: But then two big moments happen.
Speaker 5: Of course, Tuesday night, a Democrats swept in Virginia and
Speaker 5: New Jersey. In California, and that's really emboldened parts of
Speaker 5: the Democratic Party. To Senator Bernie Sanders point, it's emboldened
Speaker 5: many of them to keep going, to not keep yet,
Speaker 5: and to not distract from the fact that their party
Speaker 5: is really riding a high right now. They want to
Speaker 5: keep the focus on them fighting Trump and moving forward.
Speaker 5: There are still some Democrats who are willing to work
Speaker 5: with Republicans. There are still ongoing conversations happening. Be a
Speaker 5: key meeting with Senate Democrats today where we expect the
Speaker 5: caucus to really hash out what the path forward is,
Speaker 5: how long they want to delay there any decision to
Speaker 5: vote to reopen the government. So today is going to
Speaker 5: be a key day. The other thing that happened yesterday
Speaker 5: was that President Trump blamed Republicans for the shutdown behind
Speaker 5: closed doors. He said the shutdown has been worse for
Speaker 5: Republicans than Democrats. He also again put pressure on Republicans
Speaker 5: to end the filibuster. This has kind of sown tension
Speaker 5: within Republicans who felt like they were actually, you know,
Speaker 5: doing well when it comes to the shutdown politics. Republicans
Speaker 5: were continuing to say that they felt that, you know,
Speaker 5: Democrats were at fault for the shutdown, and the American
Speaker 5: people were hearing that Trump completely undermined that message, and
Speaker 5: that has sewn, you know, some discord within Republicans as well.
Speaker 1: So Monday, the Democrats were feeling like, oh boy, we better,
Speaker 1: we better give in, looking pretty bad for is Tuesday.
Speaker 1: The election gave wind into the sale of the Democrats.
Speaker 1: They are feeling bigger and better, stronger from the results
Speaker 1: of their clean sweep on Tuesday. The Americans for Limited
Speaker 1: Government conservative organization in their newsletter that came out today,
Speaker 1: they're talking about around the election time. In twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: Biden's approval rating on the economy was around forty percent.
Speaker 1: Democrats fared poorly as swing voters punished Biden, who repla
Speaker 1: and then Harris, who replaced Biden on the ballot. Oil
Speaker 1: was seventy two dollars. It's now down to sixty. So far,
Speaker 1: so good. By using the same metrics, even with inflation
Speaker 1: continuing to cool versus income, the president's approval on the
Speaker 1: economy today averages forty one percent. Every election is a
Speaker 1: referendum on the incumbent, and now the shoe is on
Speaker 1: the other foot. With the twenty twenty six congressional mid
Speaker 1: terms now one year away. Perception is everything inflation is cooling,
Speaker 1: but are American people feeling it? That's from the Americans
Speaker 1: for Limited Government. I think their question is a very
Speaker 1: very legitimate question. All Right, we have the election reaction
Speaker 1: from let's check in Harry Inton always finds the latest
Speaker 1: numbers on what's going on out there. Here's Harry On reacting.
Speaker 2: Tatoosay, Yeah, I think there are a lot of Republicans
Speaker 2: who saw those polls that you know, showed Donald Trump
Speaker 2: low nationally and they didn't necessarily believe them. But for Democrats,
Speaker 2: those polls are real and they are spectacular. And the
Speaker 2: reason I say that is because take a look here,
Speaker 2: voted for the Democratic nominee. Among Trump disapprovers, I got
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen Trump's first term and twenty twenty five in
Speaker 2: New Jersey. In Virginia and seven team Among the Trump disapprovers,
Speaker 2: the Democrat nominees got eighty two percent in New Jersey,
Speaker 2: eighty seven percent of Virginia. Come over to this side
Speaker 2: of the screen. If there is any idea that Republicans
Speaker 2: are going to be able to outrun Donald Trump's low
Speaker 2: approval ratings, this says, Nah, they're going to be like
Speaker 2: and Paula's getting chased down in the African desert by
Speaker 2: a big lion.
Speaker 4: Look at this.
Speaker 2: Ninety three percent of Trump disapprovers voted for the Democrat
Speaker 2: nominee in New Jersey and ninety two percent voted for
Speaker 2: them in the Great Commonwealth of Virginia.
Speaker 1: I get that because people that disapproved of Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: we're certainly going to vote for the Democrats to one
Speaker 1: in New Jersey and Virginia.
Speaker 2: Okay, what does that all mean? Right? I think there
Speaker 2: are a lot of Republicans saying, Okay, Donald Trump ain't
Speaker 2: that popular, but the Democrats aren't popular either, and those
Speaker 2: Democratic low favorite ratings, those will save us. Well, we
Speaker 2: had a test of that on Tuesday night. So what
Speaker 2: do we see here? Okay, vote for the Democratic nominee,
Speaker 2: view neither party favorably. Here's the margin. Look at this
Speaker 2: in New Jersey. If you viewed neither party favorably in
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Mike, you sure won that vote by sixty
Speaker 2: six points. How about in Virginia, Abigail Spamberger won that
Speaker 2: vote by fifty six points. It doesn't necessarily matter. It
Speaker 2: turns out that the Democrats have viewed that unfavorably because
Speaker 2: amongst those who like neither party, the Democrats ran away
Speaker 2: with it. You know, I started off with a running
Speaker 2: analogy talking about the African desert. These folks are like
Speaker 2: Usain Bolt, despite the fact that Donald Trump is despite
Speaker 2: the fact that Democrats have viewed unfavorably, Democrats are like
Speaker 2: usaying vote because Donald Trump is like rocket fuel, and
Speaker 2: they're able to run away from the pack. And I
Speaker 2: think you say, boat would leave both of us in
Speaker 2: the disk.
Speaker 1: So people like me that don't care for Republicans or Democrats,
Speaker 1: I think there are a bunch of clowns voted heavily
Speaker 1: for the people that won't in Virginia and in New Jersey.
Speaker 1: Something to chew one after the Tuesday election, let's talk cairlines,
Speaker 1: because if you're flying someplace, there's a little bit of
Speaker 1: a roll of the dice that you're going to be
Speaker 1: facing starting tomorrow. We're going to find out sometime probably
Speaker 1: late this afternoon or this evening which airports are involved.
Speaker 1: But you'll hear Sean Duffy, the Transportation Secretary, and the
Speaker 1: FAA administrator. They've decided to reduce the number of airplanes
Speaker 1: in the sky by saying ten percent of the flights
Speaker 1: at forty of the busiest airports are going to be canceled,
Speaker 1: So your flight may be one of those. Now, one
Speaker 1: of the things that I'm hearing from people that I
Speaker 1: know in the aviation industry is what they're targeting, probably
Speaker 1: regional airlines. So if you're flying in and again it
Speaker 1: may say American Airlines, that may say United Airlines. But
Speaker 1: if your ticket or your reservation says operated by and
Speaker 1: there's three or four big regional carriers that operate the
Speaker 1: flights for United and American and Delta, and they don't
Speaker 1: carry a lot of passengers. They fly to smaller communities,
Speaker 1: but they take up one space of one airplane in
Speaker 1: the aviation sky. So it may be where the ones
Speaker 1: that they pick on for cancelations will be regional carriers'
Speaker 1: flights will have to wait for the officialdom from them.
Speaker 1: Here's Sean Duffy, the Secretary of Transportation.
Speaker 6: But our number one priority is to make sure when
Speaker 6: you travel, you travel safely. And that's why, as the
Speaker 6: Administrator and I have been talking throughout the day, his
Speaker 6: team has been working for the last twenty four to
Speaker 6: thirty six forty eight hours crunching data. We're noticing that
Speaker 6: there's additional pressure that's building in the system. And again,
Speaker 6: our priority is to make sure that you're safe, and
Speaker 6: so we're going to talk about additional measures that we
Speaker 6: are going to take that's going to reduce their risk
Speaker 6: profile in the national airspace. And I'm going to turn
Speaker 6: it over to the administrator to do that. As he
Speaker 6: walks through what that plan is going to look like.
Speaker 6: I anticipate there will be additional disruptions, there will be frustration.
Speaker 6: We are working with the airlines, they're going to work
Speaker 6: with passenger tent reduction in capacity at forty of our locations.
Speaker 6: The administrator is going to tell you, the trader is
Speaker 6: going to talk about all of the tools we're going
Speaker 6: to deploy. One of them, though, is going to be
Speaker 6: that there is going to be a ten percent reduction
Speaker 6: in capacity at forty of our locations.
Speaker 1: Hey, you heard that right, ten percent of the fights
Speaker 1: at forty of the busiest airports in the country. Like
Speaker 1: you said, the disruption is going to get worse. Here's
Speaker 1: Brendon Bedford, who's the FAA administrator.
Speaker 7: There's no perfect science here, so it's really trying to
Speaker 7: look at where the potential pressure points are building, what
Speaker 7: we're seeing in terms of safety disclosure reporting from our
Speaker 7: commercial air transport pilots that's informing us, and then as
Speaker 7: we get into the granular details on these forty individual markets,
Speaker 7: we felt like this was the appropriate next step.
Speaker 1: Again, I refer back to the lady I know whose
Speaker 1: grand theory is is that they're going to make it
Speaker 1: very uncomfortable and then the White House will come in
Speaker 1: and save the day by negotiating some sort of partial
Speaker 1: subsidy for people on Obamacare. Peter Gottz is a former
Speaker 1: NTSB chairman and his whole world is about safety.
Speaker 8: He's dead right unfortunately. I mean, this is chaos out there,
Speaker 8: and I think Secretary Duffy, you know, he's a good guy,
Speaker 8: but he's not an aviation guy. His service in the
Speaker 8: con was not on the Aviation Committee. He's been doing
Speaker 8: the best he can, but there's a profound mistrust on
Speaker 8: the part of some of the Democratic negotiators that they
Speaker 8: could cut a deal with John Thune and the White
Speaker 8: House wouldn't back it up. So they want somebody from
Speaker 8: the White House to commit to any kind of deal
Speaker 8: going forward. And that's just not there yet. I would
Speaker 8: say he's learning on the job. He's getting reports from pilots.
Speaker 8: The pilots are saying that there are more and more
Speaker 8: indications that the system is beyond you safe, that it
Speaker 8: is stretching, and they the pilots call in their reports
Speaker 8: after their flights. He has to make a decision to
Speaker 8: back those down, to back up if he has an
Speaker 8: accident in an area where the pilot has warned, where
Speaker 8: pilots have warned that this has been an unsafe situation developing,
Speaker 8: it would be devastating. The entire system would have to
Speaker 8: shut down. So it's a very delicate situation.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 8: It raises the question of privatization of the airspace. This
Speaker 8: has long been a goal of the conservative Republican side.
Speaker 8: They think the airspace should be privatized, should be run
Speaker 8: as a private entity with some government input. The pilots
Speaker 8: and the air traffic controllers have opposed that. This is
Speaker 8: underscoring that debate, and I think we'll see it come
Speaker 8: up again in the future.
Speaker 1: Well, Peter Gtz is right. The whole thing about privatizing
Speaker 1: the air traffic control system is being fought by the
Speaker 1: Air Traffic Control Union. It's being fought by a lot
Speaker 1: of people that are commercial airline pilots. The general aviation
Speaker 1: pilots don't want that because a private system would require
Speaker 1: that if you want to fly, you've got to pay
Speaker 1: a fee before you you can take off, or it
Speaker 1: would also encourage people not to file flight plans, which
Speaker 1: would make more flights, make it more danger especially if
Speaker 1: there's an emergency. They do have a private air traffic
Speaker 1: control system in Canada, and it works. It's very it
Speaker 1: works very well, it's very professional, but they don't have
Speaker 1: anywhere near the air traffic that we have here in
Speaker 1: the United States. So we wait to see what's going
Speaker 1: to happen on how many of the Even if you
Speaker 1: don't live in an area where there are the forty
Speaker 1: airports that they're going to select, if you want to
Speaker 1: take a flight, are you going to fly from a
Speaker 1: smaller medium sized airport to another smaller medium sized airport,
Speaker 1: or are you're going to be flying into one of
Speaker 1: the big airports where there are going to be restrictions.
Speaker 1: So we still are waiting to see what happens. But again,
Speaker 1: this all starts Friday eight We're recording this on Thursday,
Speaker 1: the sixth. This starts Friday the seventh, So if you
Speaker 1: have a ticket, be prepared now. Ten percent. If you
Speaker 1: want to do the math on this, there's about fifty
Speaker 1: thousand flights a day in the United States. Ten percent
Speaker 1: means five thousand flights could effectively be canceled. Is that
Speaker 1: enough to reduce the pressure on the air traffic system.
Speaker 1: I don't know. But that also means that if you
Speaker 1: have a flight schedule for Tomorrow or Saturday or Sunday,
Speaker 1: if ten percent are going to be canceled, that means
Speaker 1: you have a ninety percent chance that your flight is
Speaker 1: going to go. I don't know if it'll be on time,
Speaker 1: but a ninety percent chance that it is going to
Speaker 1: actually get from point A to point B. Still a
Speaker 1: lot of buzzs flying around today after the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: did a hearing yesterday on the tariffs. Whether the President
Speaker 1: has not this president just presidents have the authority to
Speaker 1: lay tariffs on foreign countries. Here are some of the
Speaker 1: comments from justices. The first voice you hear is Chief
Speaker 1: Justice Roberts, the second voice you hear is Amy Coney Barrett,
Speaker 1: and the third voice is a Justice Gorsage.
Speaker 4: Tariffs.
Speaker 9: If a tariff is imposed on either automobiles, who pays them?
Speaker 2: Is it your.
Speaker 10: Contention that every country needed to be tariff because of
Speaker 10: threats to the defense and industrial base? I mean it Spain, France,
Speaker 10: I mean I could see it with some countries.
Speaker 9: Could the president impose a fifty percent tariff on gas
Speaker 9: powered chorus and auto parts to deal with the unusual
Speaker 9: and extraordinary threat from abroad of climate change?
Speaker 1: The last one, Justice Gorsage, he was making the point,
Speaker 1: if there is a president, and it would have been
Speaker 1: something I could imagine Joe Biden would have done. If
Speaker 1: a president can issue tariffs for whatever he or she thinks,
Speaker 1: and the president is a big climate change warrior, then
Speaker 1: could the president impose a massive tariff on gasoline powered
Speaker 1: automobiles that are made in other countries and come into
Speaker 1: the US. And that it sounded to me like Justice Roberts,
Speaker 1: Justice Barrett, Justice Garsage, all of them seem rather skeptical
Speaker 1: about the ability of the president to be able to
Speaker 1: lay tariffs. Dan Rayfield, he is the attorney general for
Speaker 1: the state of Oregon.
Speaker 2: This is what he had to say.
Speaker 11: Well, it was unquestionably skepticism from some of the conservative
Speaker 11: jurists that were sitting there and that was palpable in
Speaker 11: the room some very actually intense moments as they were
Speaker 11: grappling with found national constitutional principles. In this moment, I
Speaker 11: think what was also an incredible takeaway, and I think
Speaker 11: would be incredibly frustrating for Americans if they were listing,
Speaker 11: is that, for what ten eleven months, we've listened to
Speaker 11: the President talk about these tariffs are going to be
Speaker 11: paid by foreign companies, foreign countries. What you heard is
Speaker 11: the attorney for the President, look, these justice in the isset,
Speaker 11: Americans are paying right now thirty to eighty percent of
Speaker 11: the tariff costs here in America. And they sat there
Speaker 11: and said, that's four trillion dollars or what is going
Speaker 11: to come into the treasury because of these tariffs. That's
Speaker 11: wild that they're willing to sit there and admit to
Speaker 11: these justices how much we as Americans are paying.
Speaker 1: I thought that was interesting about the fact that thirty
Speaker 1: to eighty percent's a pretty wide range. Thirty to eighty
Speaker 1: percent of the tariffs are being paid by Americans, and
Speaker 1: that is where tariffs usually work, is the person receiving
Speaker 1: the goods from overseas is the one who pays the tariff.
Speaker 1: Thirty to eighty means some companies are, some shippers are
Speaker 1: picking up the tariff, others are or not. But four
Speaker 1: trillion dollars is the number that he came up with.
Speaker 1: So if this goes in favor of the President, then
Speaker 1: they'll discontinue to keep collecting the tariffs. If it goes
Speaker 1: against the president, I don't know. People are trying how
Speaker 1: will they have to reimburse all the people that have
Speaker 1: paid tariffs? And that is beyond imagination because if the
Speaker 1: wholesaler picking up the product had to pay the tariff,
Speaker 1: then they passed that on theoretically to the distributor, who
Speaker 1: passed it on to the retailer who passed it on
Speaker 1: to you. And I don't have any receipts showing that
Speaker 1: I paid any particular amount for things that I bought
Speaker 1: were tariff related. So it's very complicated. But they're not
Speaker 1: going to hold this decision till next June, like they
Speaker 1: do with most of their decisions. It should be coming
Speaker 1: out fairly soon. So a big cliffhanger coming in on
Speaker 1: the tariffs and the amount of money. Speaking of big money,
Speaker 1: TESLA is having a shareholders meeting today and one of
Speaker 1: the items on the agenda is they're going to vote
Speaker 1: the shareholders will on Elon Musk's one trillion dollar pay package.
Speaker 1: A lot of people raise their eyebrows on that. Phil
Speaker 1: a bow Over at CNBC's follows everything at Tesla. He
Speaker 1: had this to kind of lay out what Elon Musk
Speaker 1: has to do in order to earn one trillion dollars.
Speaker 12: So I would not be sitting here. I would not
Speaker 12: be sitting here if I had a trillion dollar pay package. Look,
Speaker 12: most believe that this is going to be approved. Remember
Speaker 12: Elon Musk himself, who has fifteen percent of the shares
Speaker 12: of Tesla, he can vote as part of this. This
Speaker 12: is not where he's restricted from voting his shares, So
Speaker 12: he's going to obviously vote. And when we'll talk about
Speaker 12: who's FOI and against this in just a little bit.
Speaker 12: The pay package itself, keep in mind it is worth
Speaker 12: up to eight hundred and seventy eight billion dollars. But
Speaker 12: much like the previous package that was ultimately rejected by
Speaker 12: a Chanceley court in Delaware, it's got very trunches in there.
Speaker 12: It raises Elon Musk's potential stake to above twenty five percent,
Speaker 12: and those performance metrics. Those trunches, they must be met
Speaker 12: As they are met it unlocks more shares for Elon
Speaker 12: Musk and obviously more pay. So what are some of
Speaker 12: those metrics. We're not going to go through all of them,
Speaker 12: we'd be here for a while, but some of them
Speaker 12: are great. Key ones deliver twenty million Teslas. Look, they've
Speaker 12: already delivered more than eight million. Most believe this is
Speaker 12: the easiest of the metrics to hit. Deploy one million robotaxies,
Speaker 12: have them in service, and deploy one million humanoid robots.
Speaker 12: So who likes this and who doesn't like this? Well,
Speaker 12: Elon himself obviously, and those who have been rock solid
Speaker 12: porters of his whether it's arc invests, bearing capital, you know,
Speaker 12: the usual players. They are the ones who have said,
Speaker 12: give the man this pay deal, because if he hits
Speaker 12: these metrics.
Speaker 2: We all win.
Speaker 12: On the other side, you've got a number of the
Speaker 12: retirement and pension funds who are saying there's not enough
Speaker 12: in here to hold his feet to the fire on
Speaker 12: things like not getting political or spending x amount of
Speaker 12: time working on Tesla projects. As you take a look
Speaker 12: at shares of Tesla, I'm going back to January twenty third,
Speaker 12: twenty eighteen. Remember that. I remember that day, guys. That's
Speaker 12: when the previous pay package was announced. And at that time,
Speaker 12: there were a ton of people. There were a ton
Speaker 12: of people who said, yeah, he might hit a few
Speaker 12: of these, There's no way he hits them all. Guess
Speaker 12: what he hit them all. This is what shares have
Speaker 12: done since that pay package. And we know everything that
Speaker 12: took place following the award of that pay package. I
Speaker 12: was held up, ultimately shot down in court and delaware
Speaker 12: that process is still playing out in terms of whether
Speaker 12: Elon lets get some of that money. We should get
Speaker 12: the results, guys, shortly after the shareholder meeting starts at
Speaker 12: four pm this afternoon.
Speaker 1: Yeah, to go back to twenty eighteen, when he got
Speaker 1: his previous pay package, which like Phil was talking about,
Speaker 1: the court said, no, you can't have it, even though
Speaker 1: that was agreed to upfront. If I achieve X and
Speaker 1: Y and Z, you'll give me this big pile of money.
Speaker 1: And I think it was a billion dollars and they said, sure,
Speaker 1: you'll never achieve it. And he did achieve it, and
Speaker 1: then they reneged on him. The court said, you can't
Speaker 1: have but that's too much money, which who's it? Who's
Speaker 1: the court to decide? They don't have any skin in
Speaker 1: the game. Anyway, The stock since that twenty eighteen pay
Speaker 1: package has gone up one thousand, eight hundred and eighty percent.
Speaker 1: There have been many millionaires made by owning Tesla stock
Speaker 1: from twoenty eighteen. So now the bar has been raised
Speaker 1: up to a trillion dollar pay package. And again he's
Speaker 1: got to produce twenty million Tesla's one million robo tax
Speaker 1: season one million robots, and he thinks he can do it.
Speaker 1: That will make again a bunch of new millionaires. So
Speaker 1: and speaking of people in their jobs, we're supposed to
Speaker 1: have the jobs report out tomorrow. That's not going to
Speaker 1: happen because the gut first Friday of the month, because
Speaker 1: the government obviously isn't producing these things. But we did
Speaker 1: get some information from Austin Goulsby, who's the president of
Speaker 1: the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. This is what he had
Speaker 1: to say.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna save us some time this weekend.
Speaker 13: You just moved the Chicago Fed labor market indicators right
Speaker 13: to the top. You look at it, and you just
Speaker 13: saved yourself thirty minutes. We can we have only the
Speaker 13: private set information when the government is shut down. That said,
Speaker 13: when we put together these labor market indicators, it wasn't
Speaker 13: because of the government shutdown, it was because we wanted
Speaker 13: more real time information, and so we supplement by eleven
Speaker 13: different sources. And to me, most of the labor market
Speaker 13: indicators that we're getting show a lot of stability in
Speaker 13: the market. And when we were getting the government data,
Speaker 13: they showed a lot of stability. The one number that
Speaker 13: was not showing stability that showed pretty substantial deterioration.
Speaker 2: Was total payroll job creation.
Speaker 13: But there's a question mark on that that we should
Speaker 13: be a little careful over indexing on payroll job numbers
Speaker 13: as an indicator of the business cycle. When immigration there's
Speaker 13: a huge question mark, and you don't know what's happening
Speaker 13: to population growth. So I still think there's mild cooling.
Speaker 13: But this labor market indicator reading that we that we
Speaker 13: put out from the Chicago Fed that shows the unemployment
Speaker 13: rate is basically unchanged except for a tiny increase that
Speaker 13: came from the workers who are not working because the
Speaker 13: governments shut down. And at that the hiring rate shows
Speaker 13: a lot of stability, and the layoff and vacancy rate
Speaker 13: also shows a lot of stability. That's what it feels
Speaker 13: like on the labor side so far.
Speaker 1: To me, it seems to be the kind of reporting
Speaker 1: we're getting from all over the place, not only Chicago,
Speaker 1: is that hiring has slowed, Firing has slowed. Companies are
Speaker 1: just hanging on to whatever they have for employer employees
Speaker 1: at this moment. That the unemployment rate is probably somewhere
Speaker 1: a little bit higher than where it was before, so
Speaker 1: four point three somewhere around in there. And we'll have
Speaker 1: to wait for the government to get back to work
Speaker 1: to find out what what the government numbers are. One
Speaker 1: more item today before we get to Wall Street. There
Speaker 1: was a big meeting in the White House today President
Speaker 1: Trump in the Oval Office with a lot of the
Speaker 1: Health and Humans Health Well people, from Secretary Robert F.
Speaker 1: Kennedy Junior, the doctor oz To, I mean, all the
Speaker 1: doctor mcterry. They had the makers of ozembic and mcgovi
Speaker 1: in the office and they have cut a deal where
Speaker 1: those products normally go for something like fifteen hundred dollars
Speaker 1: are going to be sold now for two hundred and
Speaker 1: forty five dollars a month for the weight low structs
Speaker 1: and it's more than just weight loss. It's apparently medicine
Speaker 1: has found out that it is helping so many other
Speaker 1: parts of our health, your brain, your kidneys. It's amazing
Speaker 1: what they have found out. Doctor Mark Siegel reacted to
Speaker 1: the news of this is going to be a much
Speaker 1: cheaper drug. Not cheap, but much cheaper than what it was.
Speaker 4: It's going to be huge.
Speaker 14: We're talking about six about six to ten percent of
Speaker 14: Americans already on them. It's going to go double triple that.
Speaker 14: We're talking about drugs that if you can't get them
Speaker 14: via your insurance, it's twelve hundred dollars a month. Now
Speaker 14: Lily and Nova Nordisk have made it available directly from
Speaker 14: them for about five hundred dollars a month. But what
Speaker 14: Trump is negotiated now, it's going to be two hundred
Speaker 14: and forty five dollars a month. And the one indication
Speaker 14: you did leave out was the heart mem Andaz pointed
Speaker 14: that out. I'm a heart doctor, he said, He's one
Speaker 14: of the top cardiovasculo surgeons in history. By the way,
Speaker 14: But the heart, it lowers blood pressure, It directly affects
Speaker 14: the cornerie arteries.
Speaker 4: It looks like and it lowers cholesterol.
Speaker 14: These are amazing drugs and it looks like it may
Speaker 14: even have an impact on aging.
Speaker 10: Now.
Speaker 14: He also pointed out OZ did and I'm going to
Speaker 14: be talking them tomorrow about this. That does have side effects.
Speaker 14: I mean, we don't know totally about the side effects
Speaker 14: on the eyes. We're looking at that. There's issues with
Speaker 14: the thyroid. Not everybody can tolerated in the gas to
Speaker 14: intestinal track. Some people with reflux can't tolerate it. But
Speaker 14: your point about addiction is because it delays gastric emptying,
Speaker 14: so if you have one glass of wine, it may
Speaker 14: feel like three.
Speaker 4: This is huge, This is a huge step.
Speaker 14: Now, one other point I want to make it's going
Speaker 14: to be covered for Medicaid and Medicare and paying out
Speaker 14: a pocket.
Speaker 4: Medicare is not yet covering for obesity.
Speaker 14: That's a huge point, and I would predict that Center
Speaker 14: for Medicare Medicaid Services is going to fix that and
Speaker 14: make it so it's covered for obesity.
Speaker 4: And that has to still happen. One final point is.
Speaker 14: That generally speaking, the private insurers follow suit with what
Speaker 14: Medicare does. So if you see this happening now, I
Speaker 14: predict you're going to be able to get this through
Speaker 14: your insurance a heck of a lot easier than if
Speaker 14: you come to me right now. The pills are common,
Speaker 14: and not everyone can tolerate shots. It's actually a pretty
Speaker 14: easy shot to give to yourself. But the pills are coming,
Speaker 14: and they're going to come in at even low amount
Speaker 14: we're talking about. That's the group that eats ultra processed
Speaker 14: foods the most because that's all they can afford. So
Speaker 14: this ties together with a MAHA movement. Other thing I
Speaker 14: would add is the elderly. That's the Medicare group. Guess what,
Speaker 14: if you have an obesity problem, you're in to see
Speaker 14: me even more often because all the other things you
Speaker 14: get from having obesity, like diabetes, like high blood pressure,
Speaker 14: like heart disease, like risk for cancer. I got to
Speaker 14: be ultra on the lookout for if you have obesity.
Speaker 4: So this is a huge, huge.
Speaker 14: Gain for the healthcare system and will save billions of dollars.
Speaker 4: There's no question.
Speaker 1: Yeah, every doctor that I've talked to about this or
Speaker 1: listened to are pretty well pumped about what's going on
Speaker 1: with these weight loss drugs. They're much much, much more
Speaker 1: than just weight loss Wall Street. You don't want to
Speaker 1: talk about that today, do you? It was? It was
Speaker 1: to sell off. Look at the market is taking a
Speaker 1: lot of the stocks that ramped up and turning them
Speaker 1: around into selling them off. A lot of the tech
Speaker 1: stocks and so forth went down pretty sharply. Today. The
Speaker 1: Dow was down three hundred ninety eight to forty six
Speaker 1: thy nine to twelve. It had been down over five hundred,
Speaker 1: so down three ninety eight at the close. SMP down
Speaker 1: seventy five NASDAK. A lot of the tech stocks are
Speaker 1: there four hundred, a loss of four hundred and forty
Speaker 1: five points. The price of gold down five dollars to
Speaker 1: thirty nine eighty eight, and oil down just a few
Speaker 1: pennies down to fifty nine dollars for a barrel of oil.
Speaker 1: That's it for today. Thank you for coming by. We
Speaker 1: will be back tomorrow. We hope you are too. See
Speaker 1: you that