Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 1: let's take a look at the price a bitcoin right now,
Speaker 1: currently trading at just over one hundred and nine thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: So the chop continues, and as we've been saying, we
Speaker 1: have to be patient here. A lot of different things
Speaker 1: are playing out. We still have some incredibly bullish milestones
Speaker 1: coming up on the horizon with the FED ending QT,
Speaker 1: the US government reopening, so more liquidity starts coming in.
Speaker 1: You have the Crypto Market Structure Bill passing in the
Speaker 1: Senate and of course being signed into law by Trump,
Speaker 1: in addition to the flurry of all coin ETFs on
Speaker 1: the SEC's desk to be approved, mainly xrpns ETFs. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of things on the horizon, but it's
Speaker 1: very much a boring chop zone and we could see
Speaker 1: further volatility. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin went down
Speaker 1: and touched one hundred and six thousand dollars. But nevertheless,
Speaker 1: it's all part of the process. And when you zoom out,
Speaker 1: when in down, zoom out, you see we're still in
Speaker 1: a bull market. We're still holding key support levels. And
Speaker 1: you know, of course, other factors are things like bitcoin
Speaker 1: dominance that has not broken down like we've seen in
Speaker 1: previous bull market cycles. And right now bitcoin dominance is
Speaker 1: actually on the rise. It's been showing some strength here,
Speaker 1: so I do believe eventually it's going to roll over.
Speaker 1: And here's a couple of analysts have shared their charts,
Speaker 1: so Wrecked Capital says bitcoin dominance has monthly closed below
Speaker 1: sixty point two zero percent, which technically continues to solidify
Speaker 1: this level as resistance. As a result, bitcoin dominance remains
Speaker 1: within the fifty seven point sixty eight percent two these
Speaker 1: sixty point two twenty percent unless bitcoin dominance is able
Speaker 1: to reclaim sixty point two zero percent as support in
Speaker 1: the short term, additional consolidation to the downside within the
Speaker 1: ranges on the cards or in the cards. So this
Speaker 1: is where again, patients, right, the market's going to do
Speaker 1: with thing you're going to see bitcoin dominance rise again,
Speaker 1: and then I believe it's going to eventually roll over,
Speaker 1: and that could be the final phase where I think
Speaker 1: this bullmarket runs into twenty twenty six. And in fact,
Speaker 1: today I tweeted out about it where I said the
Speaker 1: following I said, I'm not sure why many are overlooking
Speaker 1: the impact that the tariff situation has had on the
Speaker 1: crypto market timeline since the crash in early twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: I've been saying that the prolonged correction after the Q
Speaker 1: four twenty twenty four rally is going to shift things.
Speaker 1: We saw bitcoin hitting new all time high in August,
Speaker 1: which is unusual, and then we had another tariff surprise
Speaker 1: from Donald Trump, you know, in October thirteenth. Of course,
Speaker 1: that was another row block, and I said, I believe
Speaker 1: this bullmarket will continue into Q one, twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Now that's not my feelings or emotions, but just based
Speaker 1: on facts. Right, Like I've said many times, I have
Speaker 1: skin in the game. I want to make money and
Speaker 1: I don't want to make foolish decisions here, so I'm
Speaker 1: looking at the data. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball,
Speaker 1: but based on the data. I believe the bullmarket thesis highest,
Speaker 1: the higher probability of pulling out versus a bear market thesis. Right,
Speaker 1: some other things that I want to highlight here Crypto
Speaker 1: currently you can check out his channels that he does
Speaker 1: some great analysis. Gave a great breakdown of Bitcoin's chart
Speaker 1: showing three possible scenarios. So he says Bitcoin is still
Speaker 1: above it's fifty week moving average. Therefore the full reset
Speaker 1: scenario remains the bull case. Could the cycle be over,
Speaker 1: of course, but as long as we maintain the macro structure,
Speaker 1: I still stick with the trend. This is what I've
Speaker 1: been sharing, right, that the macro structure is still intact.
Speaker 1: So on his chart that he provided, he had as
Speaker 1: a final push as the most possible. So that means
Speaker 1: bitcoin rallies into the end of the year, which takes
Speaker 1: us to about one hundred and forty k ish. He
Speaker 1: has a full reset, which means additional pullback is necessary
Speaker 1: and there's a prolonged consolidation, but that allows us to
Speaker 1: go into higher high so higher prices beyond one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty. And the third scenario is the unlikely one,
Speaker 1: which is it's over and we're going to start seeing
Speaker 1: collapse into a down trend. Now, until this macrostructure breaks,
Speaker 1: we can't say that yet, right, but with the full
Speaker 1: reset scenario that is playing out into twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: so that could He says, that's a likely scenario. So
Speaker 1: let's see, folks again, no one has a crystal ball,
Speaker 1: and we're going to look at the data and what
Speaker 1: we have here and try to navigate the market, not
Speaker 1: be emotional. Right, people are getting very emotional, very depressed.
Speaker 1: People are out there saying this bull market sucks and
Speaker 1: much more. But I think people are so caught up
Speaker 1: into four years cycle of well, Bitcoin must have topped
Speaker 1: at this point because it's x amount of days and
Speaker 1: the other bull markets are X amount of days. But
Speaker 1: what we've seen in the top has progressively gone out
Speaker 1: further each cycle. So that's a fact, right, And we
Speaker 1: have to expect that things are going to be different.
Speaker 1: Just look at what happened in twenty twenty one. We
Speaker 1: had a double peak, right, You had a major top
Speaker 1: local top in April I believe it was of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one. Then later on in the year Bitcoin rally
Speaker 1: to new highs. So this is where things can be different,
Speaker 1: and we want to look at different data sets and
Speaker 1: different factors that have signaled the top, and we're not
Speaker 1: seeing a lot of them. Yes, there are bearers things
Speaker 1: on the charts, but we haven't seen all those respective factors.
Speaker 1: And of course one of the things we continue to
Speaker 1: follow is global liquidity. Here macro Investor Rale Powell gave
Speaker 1: a great update, shared multiple charts and says I usually
Speaker 1: like to give you a small fragment of global macro
Speaker 1: Investor when I sit down to write it, as I
Speaker 1: did with this weekend. Crypto is driven by liquidity. As
Speaker 1: you know, for total two ees to break higher, you
Speaker 1: need liquidity to make new highs. The government shutdown and
Speaker 1: the TGA that's the Treasury General Account delayed it, but
Speaker 1: the everything code is in the process by which the
Speaker 1: debts get monetized, and due to the extension of the
Speaker 1: debts to five years, the largest part of the liquidity
Speaker 1: lies ahead. The liquidity flood is building and the government
Speaker 1: reopening will be the start of a multi vector liquidity
Speaker 1: injection from the Treasury General Account to the PBOC balance sheet,
Speaker 1: from bank reserves to the end of QT and more.
Speaker 1: Macro is a long game. You need patients for it
Speaker 1: to play out. So I'm in full agreement with this,
Speaker 1: not because it's just rousing it, but because I've done
Speaker 1: my own research here and going through all these different
Speaker 1: things and taking the time and going through it with
Speaker 1: a fine tooth comb to make sure that I fully
Speaker 1: grasp all these things and what's happening. And folks, again,
Speaker 1: I still see we are in a bullmarket. Yes, we
Speaker 1: are in a correction right now. Yes it's boring, Yes
Speaker 1: it feels depressing and all that. Right, but stick to
Speaker 1: the data and let's make sure we're focused on that
Speaker 1: as our north star, so to speak. And you know, look,
Speaker 1: Trump and his situation and the tariffs has thrown a
Speaker 1: curveballt in this bull market to us. I think we
Speaker 1: all have to admit that, right that was a black
Speaker 1: swan event that we saw at the beginning of this year,
Speaker 1: and we're still experiencing some of it, Like I said,
Speaker 1: October thirteenth with Trump and you know, the China announcement
Speaker 1: and then some whale you know, took a massive shorts
Speaker 1: some insider trading there, I believe, and I think we're
Speaker 1: still feeling the after effects of that. So we really
Speaker 1: got to be patient here. But the macro structure is
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Speaker 1: Link will be in the description. Now, folks, we got
Speaker 1: some crazy news coming out here about Trump and Cz.
Speaker 1: We heard recently that Trump pardoned Binance founder Cz. And
Speaker 1: there's a report saying that he knows Trump said in
Speaker 1: an interview that he knows nothing about the Binance CZ's pardon.
Speaker 1: Now there's a bit of a controversy because the clip
Speaker 1: is from sixty minutes and it seems to be cut
Speaker 1: off where Trump continued, you know, maybe saying he does
Speaker 1: know by the part and he just doesn't know Caz personally.
Speaker 1: And one user posted a clip. I'm not gonna play
Speaker 1: it because sixty minutes keeps copywriting me. But he said,
Speaker 1: Trump said he doesn't know Caz personally, but not about
Speaker 1: the part in itself. Here's the clip. They appear to
Speaker 1: cut him off before he finished his answer. And look,
Speaker 1: this is messy, man, And this is the double edged
Speaker 1: sort of Donald Trump. Right, And look, I'm an independent,
Speaker 1: so I don't have a horse here in a race
Speaker 1: here necessarily that Okay, I'm a Republican or a Democrat,
Speaker 1: and I like to call it like it is. I'll
Speaker 1: criticize anybody who's not doing something right, and I'll praise
Speaker 1: anybody who's doing things right right. We want to be
Speaker 1: logical and reasonable, not to be cult followers here. So
Speaker 1: Trump has been a double edged sort. I told you
Speaker 1: guys many times I hate the Trump mean cooin like
Speaker 1: no president, no political officials, should have that. But I'm
Speaker 1: very thankful for what Trump has done for the crypto market,
Speaker 1: you know, with regulations and getting the right people in
Speaker 1: play and getting rid of Gary Gancer. I'm very happy
Speaker 1: and thankful for that. But you know, Trump has taken
Speaker 1: up advantage a bit of this acid class. Let's be
Speaker 1: real with that meme coin. We're Liberty Financial, and you're
Speaker 1: just seeing a lot of controversy now which his political
Speaker 1: opponents are going to use against him, like people buying
Speaker 1: the world Liberty Financial stable coin and all kinds of stuff. Right,
Speaker 1: and it's it's just messy. It's getting so messy now, right,
Speaker 1: we're past the kind of the honeymoon phase and it's like, man,
Speaker 1: just pump the brakes, do just let the crypto legislation
Speaker 1: get through, you know, do do the right thing. Of course,
Speaker 1: which he has been doing a lot of right things.
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's Trump per se doing these things.
Speaker 1: It's his kids. It's Eric and Don Junior. They're the ones, right.
Speaker 1: I don't think Trump is up looking at meme coins
Speaker 1: and all that stuff. It's the kids. But they they're
Speaker 1: crossing a line in certain places. And you can see
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is himself is like, yeah, you know, it's
Speaker 1: just messy, man. So I hope you guys appreciate it.
Speaker 1: I'm just being candid, right, I'm being very candid here,
Speaker 1: and some people are gonna get mad at me because
Speaker 1: they love politicians, don't. I don't worship politicians. Man. Yes,
Speaker 1: we vote, yes, we picked the candidate we feel his best.
Speaker 1: But there are people who just worship politicians, and we
Speaker 1: shouldn't be doing that. We should hold our up politicians accountable.
Speaker 1: They're here, they're in office to serve us the people, right.
Speaker 1: But man, things are getting really messy here. And you know,
Speaker 1: we talked earlier about the terriff situation and the impact
Speaker 1: that it has had on the crypto market. So it's
Speaker 1: again double edged sword here we're dealing with and it's
Speaker 1: getting messy. Man. Now, speaking of cz Uh, he himself
Speaker 1: has been like pumping Astor to token that's built on
Speaker 1: the finance marchain. So here Astor token goes flying after
Speaker 1: a SZI reveals two point five million dollar personal mistake,
Speaker 1: and today he published that he invested, you know more
Speaker 1: into the aster token, So people are kind of calling
Speaker 1: him out on it. Look at the end of the day, man,
Speaker 1: it is what it is. I didn't even know what
Speaker 1: to say it anymore. This is why I'm just waiting
Speaker 1: for this market to run up. I'll take my profits
Speaker 1: and I'm and you know, whatever happens after that, and
Speaker 1: you know, with the bear market and so forth, and
Speaker 1: they let it be, I'll just be backing up the
Speaker 1: truck buying to dip again, you know, when when it's
Speaker 1: bloody and everybody's calling crypto scam again. Right, And so
Speaker 1: I don't hold the asker token. I don't know if
Speaker 1: any of you do, but this one's you know, close
Speaker 1: to binance. Of course, Now look at this coin based
Speaker 1: mules two billion dollar bv N case startup acquisition and
Speaker 1: stable coin push man. The acquisitions, the mergers that are
Speaker 1: happening is incredible. And of course we've got a lot
Speaker 1: of companies looking to do IPOs, master the card, you know,
Speaker 1: just this week did a massive acquisition. It's just it's
Speaker 1: mind blowing to see these things happen. But it signs
Speaker 1: up a bull market, it signs of a maturing, growing
Speaker 1: acid class. And you know, I recently interviewed I believe
Speaker 1: it was Brandon mobile Hill excuse me, have crossover markets
Speaker 1: and he said, once the market Structure Bill has passed,
Speaker 1: the CLARITIAC You're going to see the big banks and
Speaker 1: many of the old Wall Street firms go buy up
Speaker 1: a ton of these crypto native firms, startups and so forth,
Speaker 1: because they have the capital and they want to, you know,
Speaker 1: take over as much of the market as possible. So
Speaker 1: how do you do that quickly? You go make some acquisitions. Right, So,
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a lot of M
Speaker 1: and A, you know, once that Market Structure Bill passes.
Speaker 1: And this is why I believe, guys, this bull market
Speaker 1: is not over. There's just so much on the table
Speaker 1: with that Market Structure Bill and the impact in addition
Speaker 1: to other factors that I don't believe this thing is
Speaker 1: top yet. Now there will be a top, and you know,
Speaker 1: that could lead us into a recession, you know everything
Speaker 1: else that's happening, And maybe that is the catalyst for
Speaker 1: the Fed to go full on Q where they stop printing,
Speaker 1: because we've seen this story before, right, if the recession
Speaker 1: gets too bad, they're going to print their way out
Speaker 1: of it. And this is why we continue to diversify
Speaker 1: into assets. And while we put our money in crypto,
Speaker 1: it's the fastest horse in the race as far as assets.
Speaker 1: So let me give it to details. So Coinbase, the
Speaker 1: world's third largest crypto exchange, is continuing its stablecoin push
Speaker 1: after key legislation in the United States sparked a renewed
Speaker 1: wave of corporate interest in blockchain based payments. Coin based
Speaker 1: exchange is reportedly in late stage talks to acquire stable
Speaker 1: coin infrastructure startup BVNK in a two billion dollar deal.
Speaker 1: According to a report by Bloomberg. The two billion dollar
Speaker 1: acquisition is expected to close later this year or early
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, pending due diligence from the exchange. According
Speaker 1: to an anonymous source, the staplecoin push could bring an
Speaker 1: additional source of revenue for Coinbase, which primarily relies on
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency trading fees to generate profits. So Coinbase continues to
Speaker 1: make massive moves and and in fact, tomorrow morning, I'll
Speaker 1: be publishing my interview with one of the coin bas
Speaker 1: reps where we talk about their bitcoin loan product and
Speaker 1: their Samsung partnership. So stay tuned for that, make sure
Speaker 1: you subscribe. And one of the things I said most
Speaker 1: recently is we heard rumors that coinbase is planning to
Speaker 1: launch a token on base, which is there a theorem
Speaker 1: layer two and I said, I'll buy it a token
Speaker 1: because all the things that are happening here, and you
Speaker 1: know they're going to build and push a lot of
Speaker 1: things on base, so you know that's that's something I'm
Speaker 1: sharing my thoughts, you know, things that I'm thinking about
Speaker 1: and doing, and obviously not financial advice. Do your own research,
Speaker 1: but I'm sharing what I'm doing and obviously i'll let
Speaker 1: you guys know if I do take a position. All right,
Speaker 1: final news item here, and I don't want to play
Speaker 1: it because there's this video because I'm going to get
Speaker 1: copy readed. But trust me when I tell you the
Speaker 1: IMF today put out an explainer on tokenization and it's
Speaker 1: just blown I'm just once again, I'm blown away. You
Speaker 1: got the IMF, you got these central banks, you got
Speaker 1: the Bank of International Settlements and a lot of these
Speaker 1: global firms and associations teaching people about crypto and blockchain
Speaker 1: and tokenization. Man, We've come a far away, a really
Speaker 1: really far away, and I think all these governments and
Speaker 1: central banks are ready to adopt blockchain, so now they're
Speaker 1: educating people about it. Man, so bullish, So you know,
Speaker 1: if you're bearish, I don't know what you're looking at
Speaker 1: You got to look at the full picture here, and
Speaker 1: I'm bullish man. I'm seeing a lot of things here
Speaker 1: that are positive. So folks, that's the news. Let me
Speaker 1: know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below
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Speaker 1: you need to know about crypto folks, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll
Speaker 1: talk to you all later.