Speaker 1: The Super Bowl is less than a week away. We're
going to break down the side the totals, hit up
some of those prop bets, and of course best bets
coming up next on Beat on It, Kelly Stewart Here,
we're in the green money jacket because this is my
last opportunity to make a little bit of money for
football season with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek. That
has been the name of the game. So thank you
guys for hanging out with us all football season long.
We'll be back for March Madness, but this is our
last show for the twenty six NFL season. Marco DiAngelo,
I want to get right into this this odd logic
screen right.
Speaker 2: Now pretty much five some four and a half.
Speaker 1: Still I don't know we're going to see another five
and a half, and I definitely don't think we're gonna
see a six. We'll get into that here in a
little bit. Total forty five and a half. But the
money line has been rather interesting, especially looking at the
screen around Vegas.
Speaker 3: Kelly, around town, We've got different lines all over the place,
and what you need to do is shop. We always
tell you to have different outs, but right now you
can bet Seattle minus two twenty on the money line
on the low end, up to to forty on the
high end. And the reason for that with the different
lines around town is each book has different liabilities, whether
it's from the future market at the beginning of the
season or if they've already taken some big bets. Now,
one of the books in town that is always generally
considered one of the sharp books is Circup and they
have the lowest line on Seattle. But there's a good
reason for it. It started way back at the beginning.
Somebody plays a Super Bowl exact, and what that is
is you have to bet pick both Super Bowl participants
and the winning team in the Super Bowl. Somebody took
the exacted New England and Seattle, with New England winning it.
That was at plus thirty one hundred odds. They bet
one hundred dollars, which that one hundred dollars bet puts
them on liability for three hundred and ten thousand dollars.
Now to a sports book, three hundred and ten thousand,
that's not going to take anybody out of business. But
when it's only one hundred dollars investment, that's something that
you don't want to see happen. So they are trying
to invite some Seattle money at their book to try
to offset their liability, and then to make matters worse,
they took a one point one million dollar bet on
New England money line and that further their liability even more.
So shop around you'll find the best line. And I'm
sure when you go to VR he'll tell you too.
Super Bowls money line are just like heavyweight fights. You're
gonna see a better price come game day on the
favorite because the tours want to bet the money line
and they want to bet the underdog.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if that's the case here, Marco. I
got off the phone with John Murray this morning. I
know you're gonna see him Friday at the west Gate
super Book and I said, John, what's going on? You
guys went back to five? And he said, yeah, we
just wanted to kind of see right now they're booking
the game at minus one oh eight minus one oh
five through the weekend.
Speaker 2: And I said, well, what do you mean.
Speaker 1: He goes, so we just tipped it back to five
just to see if we could get any interest, and
he goes, no dice, and I said, okay, we're going
to see a five and a half, We're gonna see
a six. And he said, no, we're not going to
see a six. He'd be very surprised to see it.
So I found that really interesting because I'm looking at
all these notes he told me, and I'm like, what why.
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that
they're not seeing any of the push from the Patriots
side of things. It's seventy plus percent of the tickets
on Seattle, and if they are betting the Patriots, they're
betting the Patriots on.
Speaker 3: The money line. Yeah, Kelly. The one thing, and I
did talk to John on Friday and he said, you know,
the exact same things is we're getting all Seattle money yet.
But you have to remember the public hasn't bet yet, Kelly.
The public, you know, the tourist they're going to come
to town Thursday night and Friday, that's when they'll start
hitting Vegas and that's when they'll start betting on the weekend.
And even the locals we know that, and we talk
about that all the time. The Sharks will get their
money down whenever they think it is the best time
to do so the public doesn't bet until game day
or the day before. And the reason is they just
don't have the bank roll to tie their money up
four or five six days in advance because they want
to play basketball every day and they need that money
so they can play on a daily basis and not
have all their money tied up for the weekend. Like
with all of think about all the props and people.
You know, if you're betting ten to fifteen props, which
a lot of people are gonna be doing, they don't
want to tie that money up until the day of
the game. And the props that can be graded once
they happen always get happy, always get graded right away
by the sports books that have apps, because they want
to put that money back into your account if you hit,
so you have money to go ahead and bet something
else during the game.
Speaker 1: Very very good point, Marco VR. You and I always
talk about the different steam in what we saw right
I was shocked to see this line get steamed right away.
Three and a half for Seattle early in the week.
Speaker 2: Kept on going.
Speaker 1: We saw five and a half last Monday. I was
doing the opening line report with Teddy. I said, Teddy,
I'm gonna take it. I haven't taken Teddy, I haven't
take the five and a half, so I did take
it thinking, Hey, like Marco said, maybe I can find
a cheap number on Seattle money line and middle of
the Super all will be right in the world in
a perfect scenario. But talk to me about what you've
seen from sharp accounts. Talk to me how you've seen
the market and how you're interpreting what is happening here,
and maybe do you think we see a six.
Speaker 2: I wasn't surprised where the books brought the number out,
because they're gonna bring it as close to the power
rating as possible, where they think that the sharpest groups
have their NFL power ratings, and that's where they're gonna
bring the number out. And then they're gonna let the
market decide. They know early on the market's gonna be
sharp betters, it's gonna be wise guys that bet the
Super Bowl, they're gonna help them shape the number a
little bit. Well, most of the money bet by betting
syndicates is going to be on the prompts. It's not
gonna be on the side, it's not gonna be on
the total. It's it's gonna be a small bet if anything,
or a lot of times it's even middle or manipulation,
just taking advantage of the market, knowing which way the
market's gonna move. And in this game, it was obvious
it was going to move in the side of scattle.
And here's why. Number one the argument was what New
England was the whole season? Are they legit? Are they
for real? They keep winning one score games, They had
the weakest strength of schedule. Nobody played an easier schedule
than New England. They play in the weekest division. It
was all the questions have been on the New England
side and coming in, What in New England do in
the playoffs? They beat the Chargers, they put up only
sixteen points. They beat Houston, they put up twenty eight points,
and then what did they do? They beat Denver by
three and only put up ten points. What's to get
excited about New England? On the other side, look at
what Seattle's run coming in. They had shut out Minnesota
twenty six nothing, then beat Atlanta by thirty, beat the Colts,
beat the Rams, went to Carolina, knocked them out by seventeen,
beat San Francisco on the road, then put forty one
up on San Francisco in the playoffs, then put thirty
one up on the in the playoffs. So obviously a team.
Speaker 4: Coming in having scored seventy two points and keeping their
appointments to thirty three in two playoff games and out
performing the betting market by a combined probably four touchdowns,
they're usually going to get some attention at the betting window.
Speaker 2: And that's exactly what's happened. But rest assured New England
money's gonna come in like it does every Super Bowl.
Why because these are two of the best teams in
the NFL and they're both going to attract money. When
it's all said and done, everyone's going to have an
opinion on this game, and it's the most bet sporting
event all year, and most of the money that comes
in is not even better is that have been, you know,
following the NFL all season long? And I agree with
Marco that money hasn't even gotten to the window yet.
It will not get to the window until Saturday night
Sunday morning. And I do agree that the money line
on New England is going to do only one thing,
and that's going to drop. If you like the New
England side and you want to bet the plus money.
I would not wait because even though the argument is
Seattle betters might come in and bet the money line,
I don't think you'll get enough recreational betters willing to
lay over two to one in a game like this
where they'll lay the eleven to win ten on the
point spread. I think on the Seattle sign, but I
think on the England side, getting them to win the
Super Bowl at plus money I think will be more attractive.
And usually that's what happens out here where the money
line isn't a reflection of the point spread, and there's
usually a positive ev if you bet the favorite late
on the money line. So Seattle on the money line
should offer up a decent bet before kickoff if his
three cold's true and the New England money comes in.
Because again, if you're sitting back and you like New
England and you're seeing this line open, three and a half,
go to four and a half, go to five, Like
you said, kel is it going to go to six?
You're more sophisticated. You talked to book makers, odds makers,
sharp betters. Everyone doesn't have access like that, so you
were able to conclude quickly. Now this probably isn't getting
the six. But I'm sure there's a lot of betters
out there that think, hey, this may get the six.
Let me wait till Sunday. And I think they are
waiting if they had taken New England side until closer
to the weekend. And I do think that money will
come in. And as I've said, I've been here for
thirty plus Super Bowls and there's only one Super Bowl
that they did not make money, and they barely lost
pennies on the dollar, and that was when the Giants
upset in New England, because they had so much New York
Giants money line action that it didn't even matter. All
the negative B teasers, negative B parlays didn't matter when
they were paying out four to one, five to one
on all the straight bets that were on the Giants
and all the money line parlays that were tied in
with the Giants and the total. And that's what happened
in that Super Bowl. But that's a very very rare occasion. Otherwise,
they make money regardless of the outcome. And as I
said before, when they kick off, the books are going
to be very close, much closer to fifty to fifty
than they are now. Granted they're going to prefer one
result over another, but at the end of the day,
whether the New England covers Seattle covers, it goes over,
it goes undern next Monday, here's what you're going to hear.
This is what was bet this is what the hold was.
And I will venture a guest on this Super Bowl.
The hold will probably be somewhere between eleven and thirteen percent,
somewhere around ten, ten, fourteen percentwhere around there is what
they'll profit off this Super Bowl when the dust settles.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was really shocked to see John Murray tell
me that sixty percent of their handle right now is
wrapped up in props.
Speaker 3: Holy cow.
Speaker 1: So not only have we seen since VR's been betting
the Super Bowl Las Vegas, since Marco's been betting the
Super Bowl in Las Vegas since I that was my
first Super Bowl in Las Vegas was the Giants upsetting
the Patriots, and I might have been the only person
inside and this Cason Sportsbook with a New England ticket
that day. The entire place is going absolutely nuts, all
Giants betters. It was crazy. But Marco, back to this side,
I know you have a stronger opinion than I do.
I know VR's got a five percent play on this.
So you are on an island here, make a case,
make a case here for the side that you like.
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, you know, And again we get a lot
of grief whenever we bash a team, you know, and
we say that, you know, and I'm not going to
use the word that they, you know, fraudulent, you know,
because people don't like that. And I'm not going to
say that because New England's done everything they're supposed to do.
They beat who was in front of them. But you know,
the fact is in VR already addressed it. They did play,
you know, the softer schedule in the playoffs. They really
couldn't have had a better situation arise for them in
the playoffs. And again I'm not bashing them, I'm just
pointing out facts. They got to play the Chargers in
the first round. The Chargers had big offensive line problems,
and that New England defense was able to pressure Justin
Herbert the whole game. He was under durest in that game.
When he was able to get the ball off, they
were completing passes, but more often he was running for
his life or getting sack. That was how they won
the first game, and it was a warm weather team
playing in the cold. Then what do you have in
the second game, you had horrible field conditions weatherwise. Houston
comes to town, which is an indoor team. They play
New England and they struggled in that game.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 3: Stroud, just like he did in the Pittsburgh game in
the first week of the playoffs, was horrible. Five turnovers
again for the Texans. This time they weren't able to
overcome it in New England won that game. But New
England wins that game. What was a twenty eight to
sixteen It was still a close game in the third quarter,
even with the weather conditions and with the turnovers. Then
what are they catching The third game, they go on
the road and they play Denver, who has to start
a quarterback that hasn't thrown a pass in over two years,
all right, and then they get bad weather on top
of that in that game as well, So neither team
could move any move the football. They haven't been impressive
in winning. They're winning, but there's asterisk to those wins,
and you can't overlook that. On the flip side of things,
As A said, Seattle can't look any better than they've
been right now, and they've got a stellar defense. You
look at what New England's done, and again, their offense
hasn't been explosive because they've played in bad weather. That's
part of it. But they also have played a couple
better defenses, and this is going to be the best
defense they have faced in the playoffs. Seattle is, you know,
the second best. If they're not the best, they're the
second best in the NFL. And people are gonna say, yeah,
but look at the points they gave up to the Rams.
The Rams are an elite offense. Okay, that's one, and
I don't care how good you know your defense is.
When you've got an offense, it has many weapons and
a quarterback that's in the talk for MVP, and yes,
I know Drake may is in the talk for MVP
as well, but Stafford has been there and done that.
Then you also throw in with all those weapons that
they have that facing Seattle is a division rival that
you face two times every year, so you're gonna have
more success because you know each team's strengths and weaknesses
and that's what you drill upon. New England has been
able to put pressure on the quarterbacks with a lot
of blitz packages because they've had compromised offenses that they fail.
Seattle is not that Seattle can run the football. Seattle
can beat you with the pass. And they've got three
different wide receivers that you've got to concern yourself with. Yes,
they're thinner running back because of the injury, but Kenneth
Walker's done everything. They haven't missed a beat with him
since he's been featured back because of the injury. I
like them in this spot and then the old the
last question mark Sam Darnold. Okay, do you think he's
exercised all those ghosts in the three biggest games of
the year. The final game of the regular season when
they went on the road to San Francisco, winner take
all for the number one seed. They won that game,
dominated San Francisco, and then the two playoff games they
dominated offensively, the middle game against San Francisco and then
the last one they went back and forth with the Rams,
but they prevailed. You know what they did in that game,
Sam Donald, Three games, zero turnovers. This is the winningest
quarterback in the NFL of the last two seasons. But
yet the public and you talk about you know, we
get you know, trashed for saying somebody I played an
easy schedule and you know we bashed the team for
their schedule. Hus come, nobody bashes the media, including us.
That all we dwelled upon with Sam Dnald was the
last two games the last season. That's it. And what
happened the Minnesota Vikings didn't re sign them. Where would
the Vikings have been this year if they had Sam
Donald and what he did in Seattle. I like Seattle.
I like Sam Donald. I think they get the job done.
I'm gonna go ahead with Seattle and I will find
different plays, different ways to play Seattle for the Super Bowl.
For my clients, will have Seattle, but we'll have them
in multiple different.
Speaker 2: Ways, all right. VR.
Speaker 1: One of the things that I find interesting is this
total has not moved forty five and a half sit
and steady over a week now. So I asked John Murray,
I said, John Murray, what's going on with this? Why
aren't you guys booking to need the under? They always
every single year say, oh we want a boring game,
we want you know, none of these player props to
go over. And he said that's exactly it. We don't
need to book for the total because we need to
book for the props and he goes in. Generally those
things are correlated. But there's gonna be plenty of people
out here that want to tease the total, even though
we would probably disagree with that, or maybe you would
actually agree in this case with the side, But I'm
generally curious.
Speaker 2: What do you think happens to this number?
Speaker 1: Do you think it's say, steady forty five and a
half through the weekend. Have you seen any sharp groups on.
Speaker 3: The total one way or another.
Speaker 2: No, but I've seen sharp betters taking the under, and
that's what's slowly moving this total half a point at
a time. It hasn't been one of those bettingston to
get moves that moves the whole screen simultaneously, like a
whole point where it all lights up, but slowly but surely.
Since the total came out, you've been getting some limit
bets from sharp betters out there to get respect, and
that's why it's been ticking down. With that said, when
the public gets involved, even with the top, you know
three defenses playing in this game. I think number one
for Seattle, Number three for New England or something like,
you know, top three, both of those in efficiency. I
don't think they're gonna bet this one under. Even seeing
that New England coming off a real low scoring game,
I think that's gonna be the The narrative is gonna
be the bad weather, and obviously Denver's defense, and I
think you're gonna start getting over money and I see
it ticking back up. I don't think you're gonna get
the like, you know, the opener. I think it opened
forty seven and a half in some places. I don't
think it's gonna get as high as that, but I
do think you're gonna get the forty six is forty
six and a halfs maybe even juice to the over.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this where shops get
the forty seven on Sunday, because again you're gonna start
getting not just the straight bets on the over, You're
gonna start getting a lot of teasers on the over.
And there's not really a number you want teaser protect
when it comes to totals, but obviously the higher the total,
the higher the teas is gonna have to go over
as well. They're not gonna be teasing it to the under,
that's for sure, so they have to factor that in
and that's why I do think it'll start going back up.
But again it'll be sharps versus squares, where the books
will want the sharps to be right with it's staying
under and it being a boring super Bowl, even though
I can tell you this kel and if you look
at those books that have been putting out information as
far as saying where the money's coming in on their props,
all of them are pointing to overs, and that money
coming in early on those props is not public money. Now,
not all of those will be true positions. A lot
of those will be middles once the public bets them over. Also,
they'll have an even nicer middle come Sunday. But a
handful of them are legit. So that's where the disconnect
is because I know a lot of the props have
been bet over already by sharp betters. So it'll be
interesting because again there's the disconnect between the props and
the total and how the book. The books obviously want
a boring game and they want all player props to
stay under. That's obviously, and all the you know, yes,
knows that the heavy chalk the cash. But yeah, I've
seen a lot of player props steam go over so
far on these side.
Speaker 1: Would you say that's because they want to get out
ahead of the market and they know that come Saturday
Sunday they're going to be able to take the under
if they wanted to.
Speaker 2: Yes. And also I think they came out a little
short on some of these numbers because of the defense
defense defense. When you look at these two teams again,
Seattle number one, New England number two. I'm looking right
now just to confirm number one in defense, number two
in defense when you're talking about efficiency, So yeah, the
number one team and the number two team. Obviously strength
of schedule matters. Seattle had the eleventh, New England had
thirty second. But yeah, that you're looking at two very
very very good defenses. So yeah, I think they brought
some of those player props out a little bit short
and they got ringed handful of those overs.
Speaker 1: Marco, I know you were down there the night of
the proper release. I did find it really interesting because
there were some guys that were standing in line that
either were wager talking employees or other guys putting out
content that did bet some overs, and typically that's not
it when you're looking for player props. What are you
looking for?
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, I wasn't actually downer that night because I
was going to be there the next day with the
John Murray doing the show and such. But you know
one thing I will say, and here's a trivia question
for you. Two guys we talked about. You know, Ace
mentioned what super Bowl that the Books lost? What was
the best super Bowl for the Books?
Speaker 1: Probably not awful Rams Patriots super Bowl that was like
the worst day ever. It was the worst super Bowl
party I've ever hosted. I had over three and a
half field goals and I forget the name of the
kicker of the Rams who missed two of them. It
was just a heinous super Bowl.
Speaker 3: It was a great super Bowl for the Books. It
was their biggest windfall ever. And then if you want to,
you know, poke the bear when you do your show
with John Murray. The one of the worst ones for
him was last year.
Speaker 1: Well, Jemmy is all the garbage time in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: Yes, Kansas City wouldn't give up and was getting all
that trash and sent all of the props over. So
that's the thing, and people remember things like that recency bias.
So what A said. And whenever I'm looking to play,
if I have a prop that I want to bet over,
I'm doing it early. If I have a prop that
I'm betting under, I'm doing that on Saturday and Sunday
as late as I can possibly do. Now, you know,
the one thing is, you know, you don't what happens
if you wait till Sunday. And it's a little bit
easier obviously now with all of the apps because you
can just log in and do your stuff, but you're
also going to be fighting the sharks that are going
to be looking to pick off the same numbers. And
if you're doing it live in person in Vegas, get
there early and get in line, because if you've never
been to a Vegas sports book on a Sunday morning,
on Super Bowl Sunday, it is total chaos. The lines
are deep, everybody's making their bets, and like you said,
you know, for me, being a horse player, it's like
on a big Kentucky Derby Day, you get behind somebody
in line and they're taken forever because they don't know
what they're doing. And you just want to like, reach
over and strangle them to get out of your way.
So general rule of thumb, if you like it over,
bet it now. If you like an under, bet it
Saturday early Sunday morning. Those are my tips as far
as the prop bets go.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some of these best bets.
Before we do, make sure you guys head over to
the wager Talk homepage and check out Ralph's super Bowl
prop guide. He has done such an awesome job with this,
and of course it is free, so head over there
wut dot buzz back slash RM for Ralph Michaels, or
just go to the download section and you can download
the entire pdf. He has tons of stuff like recent history,
eighteen dog six favorites, one pick them that one I
thought was really really interesting.
Speaker 2: VR.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to you first. Let's go into these
best bets I want to hear. I know you've got
a five percent play up on going to talk dot com,
so talk about that as well as what people need
to be betting for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got eleven bets in that package already, and
I'm staying very very selective, even less props than past years.
But there was just a ton of value on the
board and I even sent one out this morning. But
I'll give a four percent. I have two four percents
in there that are props. I'll give one as the
best bet, and I'm gonna go with George Hallani for
Seattle receptions over one and a half. Here's why I
like this pick because when you look at his season average,
the guys that are just looking at the match, it's
gonna be like, hey, he doesn't average all that much.
Why well he hasn't played, but now you need him
and straight off injured reserve, you saw how well he played.
They don't have their star running back, Charbonnay has been
out and now you got Halani and Kenneth Walker back there.
You know, Walker's not the type of back that's going
to be able to, you know, just rush for fifty carries.
So Halani's going to get some play. And the one
thing he is good at what we've seen historically is
he doesn't drop balls, Like if you target him, he's
gonna catch. He's been targeted I think seven times this year,
six times he caught the ball. So just get the
ball near this guy. He's going to get his hands
on it. And with the skill position players that Seattle has,
even though Halani had a decent game against the Rams,
he's not high enough up in that skill position depth
chart where you're going to game plan for Halani. Like I,
it's not like we got to eliminate Halani and we'll
be fine defensively. So I think that bodes well for
us as well as Seattle checking down with that New England,
very very capable defense. I do think they're gonna to
and get him again coming out of the backfield. Catch
one in the first half, one in the second half,
and we cash our ticket easy. Six out of ten
times you catch this. So anything one fifty or better,
this doubt this is worth that four percent play, which
for me is you know, one percent of bank roll via.
Speaker 1: I want to kick it back to you really quickly
because a lot of these propositions are juiced, and I
don't understand how to calculate the appropriate amount of juice.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: So one of the videos that we saw up on
the Way to Talk Instagram was Teddy Covers talking about
three unanswered scores and how it used to be the
wise guy bet back in the day. But now at
minus one seventy, it's unbettable. Right, So when determining some
of these prop bets, how much juice are you willing
to lay? And what should people be looking at as
far as parameters go. I it's really such a new
world to me. I know props have been around for
a while, but it's not something that I've really spent
a ton of time on when it comes to the
super Bowl because it's juiced, right, Like, I know how
to calculate player props, all right, the last fifteen games,
player X has done this. Here's what he's done against
opposing defenses. Here's what he's done against bottom five defenses.
Those types of things are a lot easier. But when
you start making something minus one thirty minus one forty fifty,
you're paying a premium in my mind. But I know
that the wise guys will still bet those because they
made it minus one seventy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's a great, great question and topic to
cover because I see it all the time weekly. Also,
here's what the comparison in with the promps. It's it's
the comparison of like buying points, where now not only
do you have to go over thirty eight and a half,
but now it's thirty eight and a half minus one forty,
So you're still getting the thirty eight and a half,
but not at minus one ten. Now it's at minus
one forty, so your break even is now a lot higher.
You now have to hit this bet at a higher
clip for it to be prompt fitable. And that's what
they're doing with a lot of these prompts because it's
a way also to stop them from being middled. By
adjusting the juice rather than adjusting the total, you limit
the opportunity of the middle because you're now not moving
the yardage. You're not going from over thirty eight and
a half yards to forty two and a half. So
now if it lands thirty nine forty forty one, you
get middled instead. Now just start adding juice. So now
if you want to go over thirty eight and a half,
you got to lay minus one thirty one forty one
fifty because at minus one ten he has to go
over thirty eight and a half fifty two and a
half percent of the time. But if they put it
up the way he got lay minus one fifty, now
he's got to do it sixty percent of a time
for you to break even. They just added eight percent
to implied win probability without even changing the number. They
just had to change the veig And to most recreational betters,
that disconnect is where the books are able to make
the kind of hold that they do because they look
as getting a better number, and nothing could be further
from the truth. You're not getting a better number. In fact,
you're getting a worse number because now you're paying more
for it. So it's like you're just going over forty
and a half. You're not going over thirty eight and
a half anymore. It just says thirty eight and a half,
but because now you're laying minus one fifty for it,
it's not thirty eight and a half anymore. And I
think the books, knowing that most betters aren't looking at
their wagers this way, is why they continue to do it.
And I think that's a great point and one. When
you're betting these prompts, you have to pay attention not
just what the number is, but what is the juice
that they're attaching, Because, like I said, I like over
one and a half receptions for Halani. I gave it
out to my subscribers, I think minus one thirty one
thirty five one forty if they have it up to
minus one sixty one sixty five, now that value has
been extracted, it's still one and a half receptions, but
I would embed it at that number anymore. So you
always want to have in your mind what does that
money line mean? And there's nothing wrong with with pulling
it up and go to Google Google money line conversion
and pull up the chart and print it out and
keep it on your desk or keep it in front
of you until you automatically look at minus set three
hundred and you know it's, oh, it's seventy percent. Like
those numbers will start becoming automatic. But if you're going
to be paying the playing these props, you have to
pay attention to the money line as well as what
the total is. So that's a great point that Kelly
brought up. And for me, I always just if if
once that moves too much, I know that it's too late.
Like if the implied win probabilities moved more than like
two three four percent, I'm gone, gone, gone, because you know,
the most they're ever going to happen a true edge
is maybe like a four five percent. So if it's
already moved four five percent, like what was the edge
of in the first place, where they have a double
digit edge? If they did, why they stop betting? So
I would I would keep it around that like if
it moves employing implied win probability one two percent, you're good.
Once it get past that, I would be cautious. And
the last point, I don't want to go long. But
this is what you have to remember. The difference between
minus one fifty, for example, like a minus one fifty
is sixty percent break even a minus one sixty is
sixty one and a half percent, So that ten cents
is one and a half percent difference. But the difference
between you know, minus three hundred and minus three ten
is not even one tenth of a percent, not even
a half of a percent. As you go up in
money line, the percentage gets less smaller, smaller, Like minus
three hundred is a seventy five percent rate, even minus
four hundreds eighty percent praate even that's only a five
percent difference. Even though you're going from a minus three
hundred to minus four hundred, you're moving like a whole
hundred cents and it's only a changing implied win probability
by five percent. But you move from minus one fifty
to minus two hundred, that fifty cents, and you move
the whole seven percent in implied win probability. So pull
that again. Pull that chart up. It's a life saver.
Speaker 1: WHOA, that made me really tired, but the mad guys
will be happy. Thank you for VR for breaking that down.
It is true. It is a lot that goes into it.
And there's a lot of implied probability calculators you guys.
Speaker 2: Can use online.
Speaker 1: I know I use them every single day because I
don't want to do the heart work. Uh, Marco di'angelo.
We're gonna get into your best bet here in a minute,
but can you let everybody know what is going on
over at wager talk dot com for the Super Bowl?
And of course, what do you have up for the
Super Bowl? I heard you mention earlier that you have
like kind of a myriad hybrid lots of things tied
in with the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, we'll have Oh and here's one thing that
I want to say about another tip for your wagers
with props and stuff. When you do your stuff, it
is going to be an extension of your handicap. Okay,
a lot of your props are going to line up
that way. You know, if you think a certain thing's
going to happen, you're going to do correlated not actually parlays,
but you're going to have correlated props that match that.
But one thing you should do, and it's just like
when you're investing, don't put all of your eggs in
one basket. Diversify your portfolio, and that should be the
same when you're doing your props. Have props that you
can win both ways, no matter what happens with the game.
You know, don't put everything that has got to be
one thing that happens, because then if you have a
super Bowl where you're completely wrong, or you have a
super Bowl like we talked about the Rams New England
Super Bowl a few years ago, everything goes up and
smoke with one result. You don't want to have that.
But what we do have over at wager Talk this week,
since it is the Super Bowl and a lot of
people their subscriptions will be ending they bought packages through
the Super Bowl, we're coming out with our best offer
of the year. You can get Super Bowl to super
Bowl sign up eleven hundred eighty eight dollars KA comes
out to just ninety nine dollars a month. You can
pick your favorite handicapper and get all of their plays
in every sport for that period of time. You'll start
when you sign up and it'll go through the Super
Bowl next year. Great way to jump on board. Lock
in your favorite capper. You'll never miss a play. But
that's not all. You get a bonus with it as well.
We're giving everybody that signs up for this package, no
matter what capper you sign up for, you're going to
receive a bonus coupon. That coupon is going to be
for twenty five percent off. That means anytime you buy
anybody else during that subscription super Bowl to super Bowl,
you can take twenty five percent off your purchase. That
is a great membership benefit when you buy the super
Bowl to super Bowl. So head over to wager talk
dot com. Pick your favorite cap or you can buy
as many cappers as you want on this special. Take
advantage of it. Me personally for the Super Bowl on Sunday,
I will have a package together that will have multiple
plays in it. Regarding the Super Bowl I'll have sides totals,
some first half wagers, second half wagers, props. You'll get
everything that I give to my clients all in one package.
Look for that super Bowl package on my homepage. And
don't forget a lot of you guys. And I want
to thank you guys for watching Marco's Delhi. It was
a great year with the football so far, it's been
an even better year with the basketball. We decided four
weeks ago to keep the deli open through basketball season.
We had five plays on the deli this week, four
and one with the deli that comes out Friday afternoons,
four Saturday games, and if sometimes there's a Sunday play,
We're giving you the plays, breaking down the situations for you,
telling you if it's a sandwich, a trap, whatever. Tune
in Friday, late afternoon here on the West Coast, early
evening on the East Coast for Marco's Deli. And that's
what I've got going this week. Kelly.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco, give me your best bets for the
Super Bowl. I'm excited because I do love to dabble
in the props and you have a good one for us.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, I'm gonna give you actually two plays. One's
gonna be a side play, one's gonna be a or
a prop play. The prop play that I like in
its kind to correlated. When I give you the side play,
I'm gonna bet which half is the higher scoring half,
and I'm taking the second half is the higher scoring half.
And here's why we talk about it with the Super Bowl.
When you start the Super Bowl, it's just like a
heavyweight boxing match. You're going to look at the game.
The coaches don't want to be the ones to make
the first mistake. It's like two heavyweights getting in there.
They're not throwing haymakers. As soon as the opening belt sounds,
they're filling each other out. They're going jabs, and that's
what ends up happening in Super Bowl. One of the
most popular props with a lot of sharps is will
there be a score in the first six and a
half minutes of the Super Bowl? Okay, and it's a
bet because teams are conservative, they would be more likely
to fourth and two punt the football instead of going forward,
as we've seen so often this year, because they don't
want to make that mistake or take that chance to
flip field. Position. So I'm gonna go the second half
to be the higher scoring half, and this year I
think it's gonna be even more so because New England
everything that Drake May has done and he's had a
fantastic season. As they said, you know it's gonna be
him or Stafford for the MVP. He is just a
second year quarterback, Okay, And I've made the reference time
and time again. One of my biggest Super Bowls personally,
betting wise for me was the Miami Dolphins against the
San Francisco forty nine ers. That was back in eighty five,
but it was actually the eighty four season Super Bowl.
They got drilled. Dan Marino, second year quarterback, makes his
first Super Bowl. It's just tough to go there. Now,
he's not going against the veteran quarterback, but he's going
against a veteran that's been in Super Bowl as well.
But he's going against the veteran quarterback that's been around
the league. So I think that the second half things
will open up. They will make halftime adjustments, so you
can get this wager. I've seen it anywhere from minus
one twenty five to minus one thirty five second half
being the higher scoring half. Now, with that said, the
play that I'm gonna use for a side wager for
you guys here on the show is I'm gonna take
Seattle and I'm gonna lay the three points in the
first half. This is a spot where I'm gonna trust
their defense and I'm gonna trust the fact that Mike
Vrabel's not gonna take chances in that first half with
his young quarterback. And I think that defense is gonna
put pressure on New England. And if you look into
three games, and granted I'll be the first to point
it out, New England has played in bad weather in
all of their games, but they haven't scored a lot
of points in the first half. And I think Seattle,
with that offense and with the weapons they have, they
can run the football down your throat, they can throw
the football with the wide receivers. I think they're gonna
have the early lead in this game. Give me Seattle
minus three first half, give me the second half. Prop
bet is the higher scoring half. Those are my two
plays for you guys here on the show this week.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco vr these guys are the best. Make
sure you be sure to tell them that in the
comment section. We're running along, so I'm just gonna tell
you guys, I'm on the Patriots. If you guys saw
Opening Line Report, KIV and Crack, Kelly and Murray, every
show I've done this week, I've given you guys my synopsis.
So we're just gonna wrap it up really quickly. I
don't think we're gonna see another five and a half,
but grab that five minus one oh eight right now
over at the Westgates super Buck and uh, I'm not
gonna sprinkle on the money line. I might come back
after listening to Marko, I might come back if I
can get like a low. I don't think i'm gonna
get that lucky. I don't think i'm gonna get ot
a low two dollars bet on the Seahawks, but I'm
gonna keep an eye out for it and maybe try
to middle this one. Thank you guys for watching with
us all season long. From VR, Marco and myself until
next football season, Let's bet on it.