1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: The Super Bowl is less than a week away. We're 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:06,240 going to break down the side the totals, hit up 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:08,759 some of those prop bets, and of course best bets 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:28,239 coming up next on Beat on It, Kelly Stewart Here, 5 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,480 we're in the green money jacket because this is my 6 00:00:30,559 --> 00:00:32,119 last opportunity to make a little bit of money for 7 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:36,520 football season with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek. That 8 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:38,679 has been the name of the game. So thank you 9 00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:41,240 guys for hanging out with us all football season long. 10 00:00:41,439 --> 00:00:44,119 We'll be back for March Madness, but this is our 11 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:50,759 last show for the twenty six NFL season. Marco DiAngelo, 12 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,320 I want to get right into this this odd logic 13 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:54,920 screen right. 14 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: Now pretty much five some four and a half. 15 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: Still I don't know we're going to see another five 16 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:01,960 and a half, and I definitely don't think we're gonna 17 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,040 see a six. We'll get into that here in a 18 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,840 little bit. Total forty five and a half. But the 19 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,480 money line has been rather interesting, especially looking at the 20 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,519 screen around Vegas. 21 00:01:12,599 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: Kelly, around town, We've got different lines all over the place, 22 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,040 and what you need to do is shop. We always 23 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,439 tell you to have different outs, but right now you 24 00:01:21,519 --> 00:01:25,640 can bet Seattle minus two twenty on the money line 25 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,400 on the low end, up to to forty on the 26 00:01:29,519 --> 00:01:32,359 high end. And the reason for that with the different 27 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,400 lines around town is each book has different liabilities, whether 28 00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:38,760 it's from the future market at the beginning of the 29 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,439 season or if they've already taken some big bets. Now, 30 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,920 one of the books in town that is always generally 31 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:50,079 considered one of the sharp books is Circup and they 32 00:01:50,159 --> 00:01:53,040 have the lowest line on Seattle. But there's a good 33 00:01:53,079 --> 00:01:57,239 reason for it. It started way back at the beginning. 34 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:02,000 Somebody plays a Super Bowl exact, and what that is 35 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:06,400 is you have to bet pick both Super Bowl participants 36 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,520 and the winning team in the Super Bowl. Somebody took 37 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,840 the exacted New England and Seattle, with New England winning it. 38 00:02:16,439 --> 00:02:20,639 That was at plus thirty one hundred odds. They bet 39 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,520 one hundred dollars, which that one hundred dollars bet puts 40 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,319 them on liability for three hundred and ten thousand dollars. 41 00:02:28,479 --> 00:02:31,080 Now to a sports book, three hundred and ten thousand, 42 00:02:31,199 --> 00:02:33,800 that's not going to take anybody out of business. But 43 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,719 when it's only one hundred dollars investment, that's something that 44 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,560 you don't want to see happen. So they are trying 45 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,159 to invite some Seattle money at their book to try 46 00:02:45,199 --> 00:02:48,479 to offset their liability, and then to make matters worse, 47 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,039 they took a one point one million dollar bet on 48 00:02:51,159 --> 00:02:55,360 New England money line and that further their liability even more. 49 00:02:55,599 --> 00:02:59,000 So shop around you'll find the best line. And I'm 50 00:02:59,039 --> 00:03:03,319 sure when you go to VR he'll tell you too. 51 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:08,120 Super Bowls money line are just like heavyweight fights. You're 52 00:03:08,199 --> 00:03:12,280 gonna see a better price come game day on the 53 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,560 favorite because the tours want to bet the money line 54 00:03:15,599 --> 00:03:16,879 and they want to bet the underdog. 55 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: I'm not sure if that's the case here, Marco. I 56 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,120 got off the phone with John Murray this morning. I 57 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:23,719 know you're gonna see him Friday at the west Gate 58 00:03:23,759 --> 00:03:26,159 super Book and I said, John, what's going on? You 59 00:03:26,159 --> 00:03:29,000 guys went back to five? And he said, yeah, we 60 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:30,639 just wanted to kind of see right now they're booking 61 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,000 the game at minus one oh eight minus one oh 62 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:34,960 five through the weekend. 63 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 2: And I said, well, what do you mean. 64 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:37,919 Speaker 1: He goes, so we just tipped it back to five 65 00:03:38,039 --> 00:03:39,840 just to see if we could get any interest, and 66 00:03:39,879 --> 00:03:42,280 he goes, no dice, and I said, okay, we're going 67 00:03:42,319 --> 00:03:44,280 to see a five and a half, We're gonna see 68 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,159 a six. And he said, no, we're not going to 69 00:03:46,199 --> 00:03:48,240 see a six. He'd be very surprised to see it. 70 00:03:48,439 --> 00:03:50,840 So I found that really interesting because I'm looking at 71 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,599 all these notes he told me, and I'm like, what why. 72 00:03:54,879 --> 00:03:58,120 It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that 73 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,800 they're not seeing any of the push from the Patriots 74 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,520 side of things. It's seventy plus percent of the tickets 75 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,680 on Seattle, and if they are betting the Patriots, they're 76 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:08,560 betting the Patriots on. 77 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 3: The money line. Yeah, Kelly. The one thing, and I 78 00:04:12,039 --> 00:04:14,319 did talk to John on Friday and he said, you know, 79 00:04:14,479 --> 00:04:16,959 the exact same things is we're getting all Seattle money yet. 80 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,160 But you have to remember the public hasn't bet yet, Kelly. 81 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,879 The public, you know, the tourist they're going to come 82 00:04:22,879 --> 00:04:26,000 to town Thursday night and Friday, that's when they'll start 83 00:04:26,079 --> 00:04:29,439 hitting Vegas and that's when they'll start betting on the weekend. 84 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,240 And even the locals we know that, and we talk 85 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,879 about that all the time. The Sharks will get their 86 00:04:35,879 --> 00:04:38,680 money down whenever they think it is the best time 87 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:43,199 to do so the public doesn't bet until game day 88 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,720 or the day before. And the reason is they just 89 00:04:46,759 --> 00:04:49,800 don't have the bank roll to tie their money up 90 00:04:49,959 --> 00:04:53,000 four or five six days in advance because they want 91 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,920 to play basketball every day and they need that money 92 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,800 so they can play on a daily basis and not 93 00:05:00,079 --> 00:05:01,920 have all their money tied up for the weekend. Like 94 00:05:01,959 --> 00:05:05,000 with all of think about all the props and people. 95 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:07,720 You know, if you're betting ten to fifteen props, which 96 00:05:07,759 --> 00:05:10,399 a lot of people are gonna be doing, they don't 97 00:05:10,399 --> 00:05:12,759 want to tie that money up until the day of 98 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:16,600 the game. And the props that can be graded once 99 00:05:16,639 --> 00:05:20,600 they happen always get happy, always get graded right away 100 00:05:20,639 --> 00:05:23,279 by the sports books that have apps, because they want 101 00:05:23,319 --> 00:05:26,319 to put that money back into your account if you hit, 102 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,959 so you have money to go ahead and bet something 103 00:05:28,959 --> 00:05:29,959 else during the game. 104 00:05:30,759 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: Very very good point, Marco VR. You and I always 105 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,360 talk about the different steam in what we saw right 106 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,959 I was shocked to see this line get steamed right away. 107 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,959 Three and a half for Seattle early in the week. 108 00:05:44,079 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 2: Kept on going. 109 00:05:44,879 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: We saw five and a half last Monday. I was 110 00:05:47,199 --> 00:05:49,399 doing the opening line report with Teddy. I said, Teddy, 111 00:05:49,639 --> 00:05:52,240 I'm gonna take it. I haven't taken Teddy, I haven't 112 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,279 take the five and a half, so I did take 113 00:05:54,319 --> 00:05:56,839 it thinking, Hey, like Marco said, maybe I can find 114 00:05:56,879 --> 00:05:59,639 a cheap number on Seattle money line and middle of 115 00:05:59,639 --> 00:06:02,360 the Super all will be right in the world in 116 00:06:02,399 --> 00:06:04,879 a perfect scenario. But talk to me about what you've 117 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,079 seen from sharp accounts. Talk to me how you've seen 118 00:06:07,079 --> 00:06:10,480 the market and how you're interpreting what is happening here, 119 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:12,319 and maybe do you think we see a six. 120 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 2: I wasn't surprised where the books brought the number out, 121 00:06:16,079 --> 00:06:18,199 because they're gonna bring it as close to the power 122 00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:22,240 rating as possible, where they think that the sharpest groups 123 00:06:22,399 --> 00:06:25,519 have their NFL power ratings, and that's where they're gonna 124 00:06:25,519 --> 00:06:28,000 bring the number out. And then they're gonna let the 125 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:32,519 market decide. They know early on the market's gonna be 126 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,439 sharp betters, it's gonna be wise guys that bet the 127 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,720 Super Bowl, they're gonna help them shape the number a 128 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,680 little bit. Well, most of the money bet by betting 129 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,439 syndicates is going to be on the prompts. It's not 130 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:45,959 gonna be on the side, it's not gonna be on 131 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,600 the total. It's it's gonna be a small bet if anything, 132 00:06:50,079 --> 00:06:52,720 or a lot of times it's even middle or manipulation, 133 00:06:53,879 --> 00:06:57,360 just taking advantage of the market, knowing which way the 134 00:06:57,399 --> 00:07:00,360 market's gonna move. And in this game, it was obvious 135 00:07:00,399 --> 00:07:02,120 it was going to move in the side of scattle. 136 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,040 And here's why. Number one the argument was what New 137 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,560 England was the whole season? Are they legit? Are they 138 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,519 for real? They keep winning one score games, They had 139 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,519 the weakest strength of schedule. Nobody played an easier schedule 140 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,759 than New England. They play in the weekest division. It 141 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:20,720 was all the questions have been on the New England 142 00:07:20,759 --> 00:07:22,959 side and coming in, What in New England do in 143 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,000 the playoffs? They beat the Chargers, they put up only 144 00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:30,360 sixteen points. They beat Houston, they put up twenty eight points, 145 00:07:30,399 --> 00:07:32,240 and then what did they do? They beat Denver by 146 00:07:32,319 --> 00:07:35,759 three and only put up ten points. What's to get 147 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,519 excited about New England? On the other side, look at 148 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,160 what Seattle's run coming in. They had shut out Minnesota 149 00:07:43,199 --> 00:07:47,399 twenty six nothing, then beat Atlanta by thirty, beat the Colts, 150 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:52,240 beat the Rams, went to Carolina, knocked them out by seventeen, 151 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,839 beat San Francisco on the road, then put forty one 152 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,000 up on San Francisco in the playoffs, then put thirty 153 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,439 one up on the in the playoffs. So obviously a team. 154 00:08:03,279 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: Coming in having scored seventy two points and keeping their 155 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,519 appointments to thirty three in two playoff games and out 156 00:08:10,519 --> 00:08:14,120 performing the betting market by a combined probably four touchdowns, 157 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,240 they're usually going to get some attention at the betting window. 158 00:08:17,279 --> 00:08:21,319 Speaker 2: And that's exactly what's happened. But rest assured New England 159 00:08:21,399 --> 00:08:23,879 money's gonna come in like it does every Super Bowl. 160 00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:26,199 Why because these are two of the best teams in 161 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:30,160 the NFL and they're both going to attract money. When 162 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,320 it's all said and done, everyone's going to have an 163 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,879 opinion on this game, and it's the most bet sporting 164 00:08:35,919 --> 00:08:39,159 event all year, and most of the money that comes 165 00:08:39,159 --> 00:08:41,759 in is not even better is that have been, you know, 166 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,840 following the NFL all season long? And I agree with 167 00:08:45,919 --> 00:08:48,720 Marco that money hasn't even gotten to the window yet. 168 00:08:48,759 --> 00:08:51,080 It will not get to the window until Saturday night 169 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,000 Sunday morning. And I do agree that the money line 170 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:55,720 on New England is going to do only one thing, 171 00:08:55,799 --> 00:08:58,360 and that's going to drop. If you like the New 172 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,240 England side and you want to bet the plus money. 173 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,000 I would not wait because even though the argument is 174 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,360 Seattle betters might come in and bet the money line, 175 00:09:07,639 --> 00:09:10,759 I don't think you'll get enough recreational betters willing to 176 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:15,639 lay over two to one in a game like this 177 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,840 where they'll lay the eleven to win ten on the 178 00:09:18,879 --> 00:09:21,159 point spread. I think on the Seattle sign, but I 179 00:09:21,159 --> 00:09:23,960 think on the England side, getting them to win the 180 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,519 Super Bowl at plus money I think will be more attractive. 181 00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:30,320 And usually that's what happens out here where the money 182 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,000 line isn't a reflection of the point spread, and there's 183 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:39,480 usually a positive ev if you bet the favorite late 184 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:42,399 on the money line. So Seattle on the money line 185 00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:46,440 should offer up a decent bet before kickoff if his 186 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:50,559 three cold's true and the New England money comes in. 187 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:52,759 Because again, if you're sitting back and you like New 188 00:09:52,799 --> 00:09:55,039 England and you're seeing this line open, three and a half, 189 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:56,919 go to four and a half, go to five, Like 190 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:58,960 you said, kel is it going to go to six? 191 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,759 You're more sophisticated. You talked to book makers, odds makers, 192 00:10:03,799 --> 00:10:07,759 sharp betters. Everyone doesn't have access like that, so you 193 00:10:07,799 --> 00:10:10,480 were able to conclude quickly. Now this probably isn't getting 194 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,600 the six. But I'm sure there's a lot of betters 195 00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:14,720 out there that think, hey, this may get the six. 196 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,240 Let me wait till Sunday. And I think they are 197 00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:20,440 waiting if they had taken New England side until closer 198 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,639 to the weekend. And I do think that money will 199 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,720 come in. And as I've said, I've been here for 200 00:10:25,759 --> 00:10:28,720 thirty plus Super Bowls and there's only one Super Bowl 201 00:10:28,759 --> 00:10:31,519 that they did not make money, and they barely lost 202 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,519 pennies on the dollar, and that was when the Giants 203 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,279 upset in New England, because they had so much New York 204 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,600 Giants money line action that it didn't even matter. All 205 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,679 the negative B teasers, negative B parlays didn't matter when 206 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,320 they were paying out four to one, five to one 207 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,600 on all the straight bets that were on the Giants 208 00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:53,120 and all the money line parlays that were tied in 209 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,840 with the Giants and the total. And that's what happened 210 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:00,000 in that Super Bowl. But that's a very very rare occasion. Otherwise, 211 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,080 they make money regardless of the outcome. And as I 212 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,639 said before, when they kick off, the books are going 213 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,159 to be very close, much closer to fifty to fifty 214 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,519 than they are now. Granted they're going to prefer one 215 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,200 result over another, but at the end of the day, 216 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,519 whether the New England covers Seattle covers, it goes over, 217 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,759 it goes undern next Monday, here's what you're going to hear. 218 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,840 This is what was bet this is what the hold was. 219 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,480 And I will venture a guest on this Super Bowl. 220 00:11:27,519 --> 00:11:31,759 The hold will probably be somewhere between eleven and thirteen percent, 221 00:11:31,879 --> 00:11:35,840 somewhere around ten, ten, fourteen percentwhere around there is what 222 00:11:35,879 --> 00:11:38,519 they'll profit off this Super Bowl when the dust settles. 223 00:11:38,879 --> 00:11:41,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was really shocked to see John Murray tell 224 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,360 me that sixty percent of their handle right now is 225 00:11:44,399 --> 00:11:45,399 wrapped up in props. 226 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 3: Holy cow. 227 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:51,799 Speaker 1: So not only have we seen since VR's been betting 228 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,600 the Super Bowl Las Vegas, since Marco's been betting the 229 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,440 Super Bowl in Las Vegas since I that was my 230 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,559 first Super Bowl in Las Vegas was the Giants upsetting 231 00:11:58,639 --> 00:12:01,679 the Patriots, and I might have been the only person 232 00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:05,039 inside and this Cason Sportsbook with a New England ticket 233 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,159 that day. The entire place is going absolutely nuts, all 234 00:12:08,279 --> 00:12:13,480 Giants betters. It was crazy. But Marco, back to this side, 235 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,120 I know you have a stronger opinion than I do. 236 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,759 I know VR's got a five percent play on this. 237 00:12:18,919 --> 00:12:22,279 So you are on an island here, make a case, 238 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,200 make a case here for the side that you like. 239 00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:28,519 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, you know, And again we get a lot 240 00:12:28,519 --> 00:12:31,399 of grief whenever we bash a team, you know, and 241 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,240 we say that, you know, and I'm not going to 242 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,120 use the word that they, you know, fraudulent, you know, 243 00:12:36,279 --> 00:12:38,200 because people don't like that. And I'm not going to 244 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,000 say that because New England's done everything they're supposed to do. 245 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,120 They beat who was in front of them. But you know, 246 00:12:44,279 --> 00:12:47,720 the fact is in VR already addressed it. They did play, 247 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,679 you know, the softer schedule in the playoffs. They really 248 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,440 couldn't have had a better situation arise for them in 249 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,279 the playoffs. And again I'm not bashing them, I'm just 250 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,799 pointing out facts. They got to play the Chargers in 251 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:06,320 the first round. The Chargers had big offensive line problems, 252 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,759 and that New England defense was able to pressure Justin 253 00:13:10,799 --> 00:13:13,720 Herbert the whole game. He was under durest in that game. 254 00:13:13,919 --> 00:13:16,039 When he was able to get the ball off, they 255 00:13:16,039 --> 00:13:20,159 were completing passes, but more often he was running for 256 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,600 his life or getting sack. That was how they won 257 00:13:23,639 --> 00:13:26,480 the first game, and it was a warm weather team 258 00:13:26,519 --> 00:13:29,200 playing in the cold. Then what do you have in 259 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:34,240 the second game, you had horrible field conditions weatherwise. Houston 260 00:13:34,279 --> 00:13:37,679 comes to town, which is an indoor team. They play 261 00:13:38,519 --> 00:13:41,519 New England and they struggled in that game. 262 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 2: C J. 263 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 3: Stroud, just like he did in the Pittsburgh game in 264 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,399 the first week of the playoffs, was horrible. Five turnovers 265 00:13:49,399 --> 00:13:52,320 again for the Texans. This time they weren't able to 266 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,519 overcome it in New England won that game. But New 267 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:57,360 England wins that game. What was a twenty eight to 268 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:02,360 sixteen It was still a close game in the third quarter, 269 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:07,600 even with the weather conditions and with the turnovers. Then 270 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,639 what are they catching The third game, they go on 271 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,879 the road and they play Denver, who has to start 272 00:14:14,039 --> 00:14:17,879 a quarterback that hasn't thrown a pass in over two years, 273 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,279 all right, and then they get bad weather on top 274 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,679 of that in that game as well, So neither team 275 00:14:23,679 --> 00:14:28,000 could move any move the football. They haven't been impressive 276 00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:32,159 in winning. They're winning, but there's asterisk to those wins, 277 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,639 and you can't overlook that. On the flip side of things, 278 00:14:36,639 --> 00:14:40,440 As A said, Seattle can't look any better than they've 279 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,639 been right now, and they've got a stellar defense. You 280 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,519 look at what New England's done, and again, their offense 281 00:14:47,639 --> 00:14:52,120 hasn't been explosive because they've played in bad weather. That's 282 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,440 part of it. But they also have played a couple 283 00:14:55,559 --> 00:14:58,320 better defenses, and this is going to be the best 284 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:02,919 defense they have faced in the playoffs. Seattle is, you know, 285 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,840 the second best. If they're not the best, they're the 286 00:15:05,879 --> 00:15:09,120 second best in the NFL. And people are gonna say, yeah, 287 00:15:09,159 --> 00:15:11,200 but look at the points they gave up to the Rams. 288 00:15:11,799 --> 00:15:16,080 The Rams are an elite offense. Okay, that's one, and 289 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,679 I don't care how good you know your defense is. 290 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,759 When you've got an offense, it has many weapons and 291 00:15:22,159 --> 00:15:26,799 a quarterback that's in the talk for MVP, and yes, 292 00:15:26,919 --> 00:15:30,200 I know Drake may is in the talk for MVP 293 00:15:30,399 --> 00:15:33,159 as well, but Stafford has been there and done that. 294 00:15:33,679 --> 00:15:36,559 Then you also throw in with all those weapons that 295 00:15:36,639 --> 00:15:40,320 they have that facing Seattle is a division rival that 296 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,399 you face two times every year, so you're gonna have 297 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,919 more success because you know each team's strengths and weaknesses 298 00:15:47,919 --> 00:15:52,200 and that's what you drill upon. New England has been 299 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,879 able to put pressure on the quarterbacks with a lot 300 00:15:54,919 --> 00:16:00,000 of blitz packages because they've had compromised offenses that they fail. 301 00:16:00,759 --> 00:16:04,840 Seattle is not that Seattle can run the football. Seattle 302 00:16:04,879 --> 00:16:08,480 can beat you with the pass. And they've got three 303 00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:12,039 different wide receivers that you've got to concern yourself with. Yes, 304 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,440 they're thinner running back because of the injury, but Kenneth 305 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,960 Walker's done everything. They haven't missed a beat with him 306 00:16:19,759 --> 00:16:23,360 since he's been featured back because of the injury. I 307 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,120 like them in this spot and then the old the 308 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,559 last question mark Sam Darnold. Okay, do you think he's 309 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:35,000 exercised all those ghosts in the three biggest games of 310 00:16:35,039 --> 00:16:38,000 the year. The final game of the regular season when 311 00:16:38,039 --> 00:16:41,279 they went on the road to San Francisco, winner take 312 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:45,440 all for the number one seed. They won that game, 313 00:16:45,639 --> 00:16:49,559 dominated San Francisco, and then the two playoff games they 314 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:54,279 dominated offensively, the middle game against San Francisco and then 315 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,000 the last one they went back and forth with the Rams, 316 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,840 but they prevailed. You know what they did in that game, 317 00:17:00,039 --> 00:17:05,160 Sam Donald, Three games, zero turnovers. This is the winningest 318 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,240 quarterback in the NFL of the last two seasons. But 319 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,119 yet the public and you talk about you know, we 320 00:17:11,279 --> 00:17:14,680 get you know, trashed for saying somebody I played an 321 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,079 easy schedule and you know we bashed the team for 322 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,079 their schedule. Hus come, nobody bashes the media, including us. 323 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,720 That all we dwelled upon with Sam Dnald was the 324 00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:28,359 last two games the last season. That's it. And what 325 00:17:28,519 --> 00:17:31,640 happened the Minnesota Vikings didn't re sign them. Where would 326 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,160 the Vikings have been this year if they had Sam 327 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:38,200 Donald and what he did in Seattle. I like Seattle. 328 00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:40,880 I like Sam Donald. I think they get the job done. 329 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,079 I'm gonna go ahead with Seattle and I will find 330 00:17:44,079 --> 00:17:48,559 different plays, different ways to play Seattle for the Super Bowl. 331 00:17:48,559 --> 00:17:51,039 For my clients, will have Seattle, but we'll have them 332 00:17:51,039 --> 00:17:52,400 in multiple different. 333 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,279 Speaker 2: Ways, all right. VR. 334 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,759 Speaker 1: One of the things that I find interesting is this 335 00:17:57,799 --> 00:18:00,480 total has not moved forty five and a half sit 336 00:18:00,559 --> 00:18:03,160 and steady over a week now. So I asked John Murray, 337 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:04,920 I said, John Murray, what's going on with this? Why 338 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,160 aren't you guys booking to need the under? They always 339 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,720 every single year say, oh we want a boring game, 340 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,240 we want you know, none of these player props to 341 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,319 go over. And he said that's exactly it. We don't 342 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,759 need to book for the total because we need to 343 00:18:18,759 --> 00:18:21,519 book for the props and he goes in. Generally those 344 00:18:21,519 --> 00:18:23,960 things are correlated. But there's gonna be plenty of people 345 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,200 out here that want to tease the total, even though 346 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,880 we would probably disagree with that, or maybe you would 347 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,680 actually agree in this case with the side, But I'm 348 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:34,640 generally curious. 349 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:36,599 Speaker 2: What do you think happens to this number? 350 00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:38,079 Speaker 1: Do you think it's say, steady forty five and a 351 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,359 half through the weekend. Have you seen any sharp groups on. 352 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 3: The total one way or another. 353 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,839 Speaker 2: No, but I've seen sharp betters taking the under, and 354 00:18:47,839 --> 00:18:50,960 that's what's slowly moving this total half a point at 355 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,599 a time. It hasn't been one of those bettingston to 356 00:18:53,599 --> 00:18:57,440 get moves that moves the whole screen simultaneously, like a 357 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,880 whole point where it all lights up, but slowly but surely. 358 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,799 Since the total came out, you've been getting some limit 359 00:19:03,839 --> 00:19:07,720 bets from sharp betters out there to get respect, and 360 00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:11,160 that's why it's been ticking down. With that said, when 361 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,480 the public gets involved, even with the top, you know 362 00:19:14,799 --> 00:19:17,759 three defenses playing in this game. I think number one 363 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,200 for Seattle, Number three for New England or something like, 364 00:19:21,279 --> 00:19:25,720 you know, top three, both of those in efficiency. I 365 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,480 don't think they're gonna bet this one under. Even seeing 366 00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:31,839 that New England coming off a real low scoring game, 367 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,519 I think that's gonna be the The narrative is gonna 368 00:19:35,519 --> 00:19:41,200 be the bad weather, and obviously Denver's defense, and I 369 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,119 think you're gonna start getting over money and I see 370 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,440 it ticking back up. I don't think you're gonna get 371 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,319 the like, you know, the opener. I think it opened 372 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,319 forty seven and a half in some places. I don't 373 00:19:51,319 --> 00:19:53,279 think it's gonna get as high as that, but I 374 00:19:53,319 --> 00:19:55,200 do think you're gonna get the forty six is forty 375 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,599 six and a halfs maybe even juice to the over. 376 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:00,880 I wouldn't be surprised to see this where shops get 377 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,519 the forty seven on Sunday, because again you're gonna start 378 00:20:04,519 --> 00:20:07,200 getting not just the straight bets on the over, You're 379 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,160 gonna start getting a lot of teasers on the over. 380 00:20:09,759 --> 00:20:14,359 And there's not really a number you want teaser protect 381 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,240 when it comes to totals, but obviously the higher the total, 382 00:20:18,319 --> 00:20:20,039 the higher the teas is gonna have to go over 383 00:20:20,079 --> 00:20:22,440 as well. They're not gonna be teasing it to the under, 384 00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:25,799 that's for sure, so they have to factor that in 385 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,400 and that's why I do think it'll start going back up. 386 00:20:29,039 --> 00:20:32,039 But again it'll be sharps versus squares, where the books 387 00:20:32,079 --> 00:20:34,240 will want the sharps to be right with it's staying 388 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:38,200 under and it being a boring super Bowl, even though 389 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,480 I can tell you this kel and if you look 390 00:20:40,519 --> 00:20:44,319 at those books that have been putting out information as 391 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,960 far as saying where the money's coming in on their props, 392 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,079 all of them are pointing to overs, and that money 393 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,759 coming in early on those props is not public money. Now, 394 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,359 not all of those will be true positions. A lot 395 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:03,680 of those will be middles once the public bets them over. Also, 396 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:08,240 they'll have an even nicer middle come Sunday. But a 397 00:21:08,319 --> 00:21:12,039 handful of them are legit. So that's where the disconnect 398 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,079 is because I know a lot of the props have 399 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:20,039 been bet over already by sharp betters. So it'll be 400 00:21:20,079 --> 00:21:23,200 interesting because again there's the disconnect between the props and 401 00:21:23,279 --> 00:21:26,319 the total and how the book. The books obviously want 402 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,000 a boring game and they want all player props to 403 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,119 stay under. That's obviously, and all the you know, yes, 404 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:37,240 knows that the heavy chalk the cash. But yeah, I've 405 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,440 seen a lot of player props steam go over so 406 00:21:39,599 --> 00:21:40,720 far on these side. 407 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: Would you say that's because they want to get out 408 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,920 ahead of the market and they know that come Saturday 409 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,319 Sunday they're going to be able to take the under 410 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:50,119 if they wanted to. 411 00:21:50,599 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 2: Yes. And also I think they came out a little 412 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,799 short on some of these numbers because of the defense 413 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,880 defense defense. When you look at these two teams again, 414 00:22:04,279 --> 00:22:08,079 Seattle number one, New England number two. I'm looking right 415 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,640 now just to confirm number one in defense, number two 416 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,720 in defense when you're talking about efficiency, So yeah, the 417 00:22:13,799 --> 00:22:16,119 number one team and the number two team. Obviously strength 418 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,400 of schedule matters. Seattle had the eleventh, New England had 419 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,079 thirty second. But yeah, that you're looking at two very 420 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,720 very very good defenses. So yeah, I think they brought 421 00:22:28,759 --> 00:22:32,440 some of those player props out a little bit short 422 00:22:32,839 --> 00:22:35,759 and they got ringed handful of those overs. 423 00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:38,319 Speaker 1: Marco, I know you were down there the night of 424 00:22:38,519 --> 00:22:42,119 the proper release. I did find it really interesting because 425 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,960 there were some guys that were standing in line that 426 00:22:44,799 --> 00:22:47,759 either were wager talking employees or other guys putting out 427 00:22:47,759 --> 00:22:51,200 content that did bet some overs, and typically that's not 428 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,400 it when you're looking for player props. What are you 429 00:22:54,519 --> 00:22:55,079 looking for? 430 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,519 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, I wasn't actually downer that night because I 431 00:22:58,559 --> 00:23:00,599 was going to be there the next day with the 432 00:23:00,759 --> 00:23:03,799 John Murray doing the show and such. But you know 433 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,759 one thing I will say, and here's a trivia question 434 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,480 for you. Two guys we talked about. You know, Ace 435 00:23:09,599 --> 00:23:13,319 mentioned what super Bowl that the Books lost? What was 436 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,440 the best super Bowl for the Books? 437 00:23:16,319 --> 00:23:19,799 Speaker 1: Probably not awful Rams Patriots super Bowl that was like 438 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,839 the worst day ever. It was the worst super Bowl 439 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,440 party I've ever hosted. I had over three and a 440 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,640 half field goals and I forget the name of the 441 00:23:27,759 --> 00:23:30,200 kicker of the Rams who missed two of them. It 442 00:23:30,279 --> 00:23:33,000 was just a heinous super Bowl. 443 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,880 Speaker 3: It was a great super Bowl for the Books. It 444 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,640 was their biggest windfall ever. And then if you want to, 445 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,319 you know, poke the bear when you do your show 446 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,640 with John Murray. The one of the worst ones for 447 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,160 him was last year. 448 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 1: Well, Jemmy is all the garbage time in the fourth quarter. 449 00:23:50,599 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 3: Yes, Kansas City wouldn't give up and was getting all 450 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,880 that trash and sent all of the props over. So 451 00:23:57,279 --> 00:24:01,240 that's the thing, and people remember things like that recency bias. 452 00:24:01,279 --> 00:24:04,720 So what A said. And whenever I'm looking to play, 453 00:24:05,079 --> 00:24:08,920 if I have a prop that I want to bet over, 454 00:24:09,319 --> 00:24:12,680 I'm doing it early. If I have a prop that 455 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,839 I'm betting under, I'm doing that on Saturday and Sunday 456 00:24:17,039 --> 00:24:20,200 as late as I can possibly do. Now, you know, 457 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,759 the one thing is, you know, you don't what happens 458 00:24:23,799 --> 00:24:25,640 if you wait till Sunday. And it's a little bit 459 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,000 easier obviously now with all of the apps because you 460 00:24:29,039 --> 00:24:32,240 can just log in and do your stuff, but you're 461 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,000 also going to be fighting the sharks that are going 462 00:24:35,039 --> 00:24:37,799 to be looking to pick off the same numbers. And 463 00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:41,279 if you're doing it live in person in Vegas, get 464 00:24:41,279 --> 00:24:44,319 there early and get in line, because if you've never 465 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,640 been to a Vegas sports book on a Sunday morning, 466 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,960 on Super Bowl Sunday, it is total chaos. The lines 467 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,359 are deep, everybody's making their bets, and like you said, 468 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,920 you know, for me, being a horse player, it's like 469 00:24:59,039 --> 00:25:01,720 on a big Kentucky Derby Day, you get behind somebody 470 00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:04,359 in line and they're taken forever because they don't know 471 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,079 what they're doing. And you just want to like, reach 472 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,119 over and strangle them to get out of your way. 473 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,599 So general rule of thumb, if you like it over, 474 00:25:13,079 --> 00:25:15,680 bet it now. If you like an under, bet it 475 00:25:15,799 --> 00:25:19,519 Saturday early Sunday morning. Those are my tips as far 476 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,240 as the prop bets go. 477 00:25:22,279 --> 00:25:24,279 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into some of these best bets. 478 00:25:25,319 --> 00:25:28,079 Before we do, make sure you guys head over to 479 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,480 the wager Talk homepage and check out Ralph's super Bowl 480 00:25:31,519 --> 00:25:34,519 prop guide. He has done such an awesome job with this, 481 00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:37,480 and of course it is free, so head over there 482 00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:42,160 wut dot buzz back slash RM for Ralph Michaels, or 483 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,359 just go to the download section and you can download 484 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,359 the entire pdf. He has tons of stuff like recent history, 485 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,319 eighteen dog six favorites, one pick them that one I 486 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,440 thought was really really interesting. 487 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 2: VR. 488 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to you first. Let's go into these 489 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,519 best bets I want to hear. I know you've got 490 00:26:01,559 --> 00:26:03,680 a five percent play up on going to talk dot com, 491 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,000 so talk about that as well as what people need 492 00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:08,119 to be betting for the Super Bowl. 493 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I got eleven bets in that package already, and 494 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:17,920 I'm staying very very selective, even less props than past years. 495 00:26:18,599 --> 00:26:20,359 But there was just a ton of value on the 496 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,599 board and I even sent one out this morning. But 497 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,359 I'll give a four percent. I have two four percents 498 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,599 in there that are props. I'll give one as the 499 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,519 best bet, and I'm gonna go with George Hallani for 500 00:26:31,599 --> 00:26:36,720 Seattle receptions over one and a half. Here's why I 501 00:26:36,799 --> 00:26:41,000 like this pick because when you look at his season average, 502 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,039 the guys that are just looking at the match, it's 503 00:26:44,039 --> 00:26:45,880 gonna be like, hey, he doesn't average all that much. 504 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,359 Why well he hasn't played, but now you need him 505 00:26:49,799 --> 00:26:53,240 and straight off injured reserve, you saw how well he played. 506 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,200 They don't have their star running back, Charbonnay has been 507 00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,880 out and now you got Halani and Kenneth Walker back there. 508 00:27:00,319 --> 00:27:02,119 You know, Walker's not the type of back that's going 509 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:06,799 to be able to, you know, just rush for fifty carries. 510 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,240 So Halani's going to get some play. And the one 511 00:27:10,279 --> 00:27:13,640 thing he is good at what we've seen historically is 512 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,039 he doesn't drop balls, Like if you target him, he's 513 00:27:16,039 --> 00:27:18,640 gonna catch. He's been targeted I think seven times this year, 514 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,400 six times he caught the ball. So just get the 515 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,119 ball near this guy. He's going to get his hands 516 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:28,279 on it. And with the skill position players that Seattle has, 517 00:27:28,799 --> 00:27:32,640 even though Halani had a decent game against the Rams, 518 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:37,279 he's not high enough up in that skill position depth 519 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:42,079 chart where you're going to game plan for Halani. Like I, 520 00:27:42,279 --> 00:27:46,000 it's not like we got to eliminate Halani and we'll 521 00:27:46,039 --> 00:27:50,160 be fine defensively. So I think that bodes well for 522 00:27:50,319 --> 00:27:56,640 us as well as Seattle checking down with that New England, 523 00:27:57,079 --> 00:28:00,119 very very capable defense. I do think they're gonna to 524 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,880 and get him again coming out of the backfield. Catch 525 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,000 one in the first half, one in the second half, 526 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,759 and we cash our ticket easy. Six out of ten 527 00:28:08,799 --> 00:28:11,880 times you catch this. So anything one fifty or better, 528 00:28:12,559 --> 00:28:15,599 this doubt this is worth that four percent play, which 529 00:28:15,599 --> 00:28:18,440 for me is you know, one percent of bank roll via. 530 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:19,839 Speaker 1: I want to kick it back to you really quickly 531 00:28:19,839 --> 00:28:23,720 because a lot of these propositions are juiced, and I 532 00:28:23,799 --> 00:28:27,559 don't understand how to calculate the appropriate amount of juice. 533 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:27,799 Speaker 2: Right. 534 00:28:27,839 --> 00:28:31,079 Speaker 1: So one of the videos that we saw up on 535 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,480 the Way to Talk Instagram was Teddy Covers talking about 536 00:28:33,519 --> 00:28:36,119 three unanswered scores and how it used to be the 537 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,680 wise guy bet back in the day. But now at 538 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:44,519 minus one seventy, it's unbettable. Right, So when determining some 539 00:28:44,559 --> 00:28:46,960 of these prop bets, how much juice are you willing 540 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,279 to lay? And what should people be looking at as 541 00:28:49,319 --> 00:28:52,720 far as parameters go. I it's really such a new 542 00:28:52,759 --> 00:28:54,680 world to me. I know props have been around for 543 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,160 a while, but it's not something that I've really spent 544 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,519 a ton of time on when it comes to the 545 00:28:59,519 --> 00:29:01,559 super Bowl because it's juiced, right, Like, I know how 546 00:29:01,559 --> 00:29:04,559 to calculate player props, all right, the last fifteen games, 547 00:29:04,559 --> 00:29:07,640 player X has done this. Here's what he's done against 548 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,400 opposing defenses. Here's what he's done against bottom five defenses. 549 00:29:10,599 --> 00:29:13,359 Those types of things are a lot easier. But when 550 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,640 you start making something minus one thirty minus one forty fifty, 551 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,839 you're paying a premium in my mind. But I know 552 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,359 that the wise guys will still bet those because they 553 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:24,799 made it minus one seventy. 554 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's a great, great question and topic to 555 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:34,960 cover because I see it all the time weekly. Also, 556 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,559 here's what the comparison in with the promps. It's it's 557 00:29:38,599 --> 00:29:42,720 the comparison of like buying points, where now not only 558 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,720 do you have to go over thirty eight and a half, 559 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,319 but now it's thirty eight and a half minus one forty, 560 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,119 So you're still getting the thirty eight and a half, 561 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,160 but not at minus one ten. Now it's at minus 562 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,799 one forty, so your break even is now a lot higher. 563 00:29:55,839 --> 00:29:58,000 You now have to hit this bet at a higher 564 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,039 clip for it to be prompt fitable. And that's what 565 00:30:01,079 --> 00:30:03,119 they're doing with a lot of these prompts because it's 566 00:30:03,119 --> 00:30:06,200 a way also to stop them from being middled. By 567 00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:11,440 adjusting the juice rather than adjusting the total, you limit 568 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,920 the opportunity of the middle because you're now not moving 569 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,240 the yardage. You're not going from over thirty eight and 570 00:30:16,279 --> 00:30:18,640 a half yards to forty two and a half. So 571 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,440 now if it lands thirty nine forty forty one, you 572 00:30:21,519 --> 00:30:25,440 get middled instead. Now just start adding juice. So now 573 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:26,839 if you want to go over thirty eight and a half, 574 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,119 you got to lay minus one thirty one forty one 575 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,200 fifty because at minus one ten he has to go 576 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,720 over thirty eight and a half fifty two and a 577 00:30:33,759 --> 00:30:35,759 half percent of the time. But if they put it 578 00:30:35,799 --> 00:30:38,240 up the way he got lay minus one fifty, now 579 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,240 he's got to do it sixty percent of a time 580 00:30:40,279 --> 00:30:43,279 for you to break even. They just added eight percent 581 00:30:43,599 --> 00:30:48,200 to implied win probability without even changing the number. They 582 00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:52,359 just had to change the veig And to most recreational betters, 583 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,880 that disconnect is where the books are able to make 584 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,960 the kind of hold that they do because they look 585 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:05,319 as getting a better number, and nothing could be further 586 00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:08,960 from the truth. You're not getting a better number. In fact, 587 00:31:09,039 --> 00:31:11,519 you're getting a worse number because now you're paying more 588 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,680 for it. So it's like you're just going over forty 589 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,240 and a half. You're not going over thirty eight and 590 00:31:16,279 --> 00:31:18,759 a half anymore. It just says thirty eight and a half, 591 00:31:18,759 --> 00:31:21,319 but because now you're laying minus one fifty for it, 592 00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:24,119 it's not thirty eight and a half anymore. And I 593 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:29,519 think the books, knowing that most betters aren't looking at 594 00:31:29,519 --> 00:31:34,440 their wagers this way, is why they continue to do it. 595 00:31:35,559 --> 00:31:39,240 And I think that's a great point and one. When 596 00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:41,720 you're betting these prompts, you have to pay attention not 597 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,759 just what the number is, but what is the juice 598 00:31:44,759 --> 00:31:48,160 that they're attaching, Because, like I said, I like over 599 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,480 one and a half receptions for Halani. I gave it 600 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,039 out to my subscribers, I think minus one thirty one 601 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:57,720 thirty five one forty if they have it up to 602 00:31:57,759 --> 00:32:01,000 minus one sixty one sixty five, now that value has 603 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,319 been extracted, it's still one and a half receptions, but 604 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,160 I would embed it at that number anymore. So you 605 00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:09,559 always want to have in your mind what does that 606 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,079 money line mean? And there's nothing wrong with with pulling 607 00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:17,000 it up and go to Google Google money line conversion 608 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,519 and pull up the chart and print it out and 609 00:32:19,599 --> 00:32:21,720 keep it on your desk or keep it in front 610 00:32:21,759 --> 00:32:25,359 of you until you automatically look at minus set three 611 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,920 hundred and you know it's, oh, it's seventy percent. Like 612 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,799 those numbers will start becoming automatic. But if you're going 613 00:32:31,839 --> 00:32:34,400 to be paying the playing these props, you have to 614 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:39,960 pay attention to the money line as well as what 615 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,680 the total is. So that's a great point that Kelly 616 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,400 brought up. And for me, I always just if if 617 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:51,200 once that moves too much, I know that it's too late. 618 00:32:51,319 --> 00:32:54,359 Like if the implied win probabilities moved more than like 619 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,559 two three four percent, I'm gone, gone, gone, because you know, 620 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,880 the most they're ever going to happen a true edge 621 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,519 is maybe like a four five percent. So if it's 622 00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:08,000 already moved four five percent, like what was the edge 623 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,000 of in the first place, where they have a double 624 00:33:10,039 --> 00:33:12,880 digit edge? If they did, why they stop betting? So 625 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,240 I would I would keep it around that like if 626 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,279 it moves employing implied win probability one two percent, you're good. 627 00:33:19,559 --> 00:33:24,000 Once it get past that, I would be cautious. And 628 00:33:24,039 --> 00:33:25,799 the last point, I don't want to go long. But 629 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,640 this is what you have to remember. The difference between 630 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,640 minus one fifty, for example, like a minus one fifty 631 00:33:33,079 --> 00:33:36,880 is sixty percent break even a minus one sixty is 632 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,640 sixty one and a half percent, So that ten cents 633 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,759 is one and a half percent difference. But the difference 634 00:33:43,799 --> 00:33:49,519 between you know, minus three hundred and minus three ten 635 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,599 is not even one tenth of a percent, not even 636 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,759 a half of a percent. As you go up in 637 00:33:55,920 --> 00:34:01,359 money line, the percentage gets less smaller, smaller, Like minus 638 00:34:01,359 --> 00:34:04,039 three hundred is a seventy five percent rate, even minus 639 00:34:04,039 --> 00:34:06,839 four hundreds eighty percent praate even that's only a five 640 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,519 percent difference. Even though you're going from a minus three 641 00:34:09,599 --> 00:34:12,480 hundred to minus four hundred, you're moving like a whole 642 00:34:12,559 --> 00:34:15,559 hundred cents and it's only a changing implied win probability 643 00:34:15,559 --> 00:34:18,519 by five percent. But you move from minus one fifty 644 00:34:18,519 --> 00:34:21,280 to minus two hundred, that fifty cents, and you move 645 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,079 the whole seven percent in implied win probability. So pull 646 00:34:25,119 --> 00:34:27,840 that again. Pull that chart up. It's a life saver. 647 00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:32,880 Speaker 1: WHOA, that made me really tired, but the mad guys 648 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,199 will be happy. Thank you for VR for breaking that down. 649 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,480 It is true. It is a lot that goes into it. 650 00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:41,039 And there's a lot of implied probability calculators you guys. 651 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 2: Can use online. 652 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,199 Speaker 1: I know I use them every single day because I 653 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,559 don't want to do the heart work. Uh, Marco di'angelo. 654 00:34:47,599 --> 00:34:50,239 We're gonna get into your best bet here in a minute, 655 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,719 but can you let everybody know what is going on 656 00:34:53,119 --> 00:34:56,039 over at wager talk dot com for the Super Bowl? 657 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,519 And of course, what do you have up for the 658 00:34:58,519 --> 00:35:00,599 Super Bowl? I heard you mention earlier that you have 659 00:35:00,639 --> 00:35:03,960 like kind of a myriad hybrid lots of things tied 660 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,360 in with the Seattle Seahawks. 661 00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:08,519 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, we'll have Oh and here's one thing that 662 00:35:08,559 --> 00:35:13,559 I want to say about another tip for your wagers 663 00:35:13,599 --> 00:35:17,039 with props and stuff. When you do your stuff, it 664 00:35:17,119 --> 00:35:20,840 is going to be an extension of your handicap. Okay, 665 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,800 a lot of your props are going to line up 666 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,480 that way. You know, if you think a certain thing's 667 00:35:25,559 --> 00:35:29,679 going to happen, you're going to do correlated not actually parlays, 668 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:33,639 but you're going to have correlated props that match that. 669 00:35:34,039 --> 00:35:36,119 But one thing you should do, and it's just like 670 00:35:36,159 --> 00:35:39,199 when you're investing, don't put all of your eggs in 671 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,599 one basket. Diversify your portfolio, and that should be the 672 00:35:43,639 --> 00:35:48,039 same when you're doing your props. Have props that you 673 00:35:48,079 --> 00:35:52,559 can win both ways, no matter what happens with the game. 674 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,599 You know, don't put everything that has got to be 675 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,760 one thing that happens, because then if you have a 676 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,840 super Bowl where you're completely wrong, or you have a 677 00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,360 super Bowl like we talked about the Rams New England 678 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,239 Super Bowl a few years ago, everything goes up and 679 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,079 smoke with one result. You don't want to have that. 680 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,039 But what we do have over at wager Talk this week, 681 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,679 since it is the Super Bowl and a lot of 682 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,440 people their subscriptions will be ending they bought packages through 683 00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,239 the Super Bowl, we're coming out with our best offer 684 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,400 of the year. You can get Super Bowl to super 685 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:30,480 Bowl sign up eleven hundred eighty eight dollars KA comes 686 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,039 out to just ninety nine dollars a month. You can 687 00:36:33,119 --> 00:36:36,960 pick your favorite handicapper and get all of their plays 688 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:41,159 in every sport for that period of time. You'll start 689 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:45,239 when you sign up and it'll go through the Super 690 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:49,559 Bowl next year. Great way to jump on board. Lock 691 00:36:49,639 --> 00:36:52,559 in your favorite capper. You'll never miss a play. But 692 00:36:52,639 --> 00:36:54,920 that's not all. You get a bonus with it as well. 693 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,519 We're giving everybody that signs up for this package, no 694 00:36:58,559 --> 00:37:01,119 matter what capper you sign up for, you're going to 695 00:37:01,199 --> 00:37:04,920 receive a bonus coupon. That coupon is going to be 696 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:09,599 for twenty five percent off. That means anytime you buy 697 00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:14,239 anybody else during that subscription super Bowl to super Bowl, 698 00:37:14,599 --> 00:37:17,360 you can take twenty five percent off your purchase. That 699 00:37:17,559 --> 00:37:21,599 is a great membership benefit when you buy the super 700 00:37:21,639 --> 00:37:23,840 Bowl to super Bowl. So head over to wager talk 701 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,280 dot com. Pick your favorite cap or you can buy 702 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,639 as many cappers as you want on this special. Take 703 00:37:29,679 --> 00:37:33,679 advantage of it. Me personally for the Super Bowl on Sunday, 704 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,400 I will have a package together that will have multiple 705 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,480 plays in it. Regarding the Super Bowl I'll have sides totals, 706 00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:45,400 some first half wagers, second half wagers, props. You'll get 707 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,639 everything that I give to my clients all in one package. 708 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,159 Look for that super Bowl package on my homepage. And 709 00:37:52,679 --> 00:37:55,159 don't forget a lot of you guys. And I want 710 00:37:55,199 --> 00:37:58,360 to thank you guys for watching Marco's Delhi. It was 711 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,440 a great year with the football so far, it's been 712 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,440 an even better year with the basketball. We decided four 713 00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,800 weeks ago to keep the deli open through basketball season. 714 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,159 We had five plays on the deli this week, four 715 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:15,920 and one with the deli that comes out Friday afternoons, 716 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:20,119 four Saturday games, and if sometimes there's a Sunday play, 717 00:38:20,559 --> 00:38:23,679 We're giving you the plays, breaking down the situations for you, 718 00:38:24,079 --> 00:38:27,400 telling you if it's a sandwich, a trap, whatever. Tune 719 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:31,079 in Friday, late afternoon here on the West Coast, early 720 00:38:31,159 --> 00:38:34,880 evening on the East Coast for Marco's Deli. And that's 721 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,400 what I've got going this week. Kelly. 722 00:38:39,199 --> 00:38:42,920 Speaker 1: All right, Marco, give me your best bets for the 723 00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,719 Super Bowl. I'm excited because I do love to dabble 724 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,880 in the props and you have a good one for us. 725 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kelly, I'm gonna give you actually two plays. One's 726 00:38:53,159 --> 00:38:55,960 gonna be a side play, one's gonna be a or 727 00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:59,519 a prop play. The prop play that I like in 728 00:38:59,559 --> 00:39:02,559 its kind to correlated. When I give you the side play, 729 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,480 I'm gonna bet which half is the higher scoring half, 730 00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,280 and I'm taking the second half is the higher scoring half. 731 00:39:09,639 --> 00:39:14,199 And here's why we talk about it with the Super Bowl. 732 00:39:14,519 --> 00:39:16,800 When you start the Super Bowl, it's just like a 733 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:20,719 heavyweight boxing match. You're going to look at the game. 734 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,840 The coaches don't want to be the ones to make 735 00:39:24,079 --> 00:39:27,719 the first mistake. It's like two heavyweights getting in there. 736 00:39:28,039 --> 00:39:32,320 They're not throwing haymakers. As soon as the opening belt sounds, 737 00:39:32,599 --> 00:39:36,000 they're filling each other out. They're going jabs, and that's 738 00:39:36,039 --> 00:39:38,079 what ends up happening in Super Bowl. One of the 739 00:39:38,119 --> 00:39:41,559 most popular props with a lot of sharps is will 740 00:39:41,559 --> 00:39:45,519 there be a score in the first six and a 741 00:39:45,559 --> 00:39:49,400 half minutes of the Super Bowl? Okay, and it's a 742 00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:55,199 bet because teams are conservative, they would be more likely 743 00:39:55,559 --> 00:40:00,639 to fourth and two punt the football instead of going forward, 744 00:40:00,679 --> 00:40:03,280 as we've seen so often this year, because they don't 745 00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:07,480 want to make that mistake or take that chance to 746 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:12,199 flip field. Position. So I'm gonna go the second half 747 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,000 to be the higher scoring half, and this year I 748 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,519 think it's gonna be even more so because New England 749 00:40:18,559 --> 00:40:20,880 everything that Drake May has done and he's had a 750 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,960 fantastic season. As they said, you know it's gonna be 751 00:40:24,039 --> 00:40:28,119 him or Stafford for the MVP. He is just a 752 00:40:28,199 --> 00:40:31,800 second year quarterback, Okay, And I've made the reference time 753 00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,519 and time again. One of my biggest Super Bowls personally, 754 00:40:35,599 --> 00:40:39,239 betting wise for me was the Miami Dolphins against the 755 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:44,280 San Francisco forty nine ers. That was back in eighty five, 756 00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,400 but it was actually the eighty four season Super Bowl. 757 00:40:47,599 --> 00:40:52,199 They got drilled. Dan Marino, second year quarterback, makes his 758 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,239 first Super Bowl. It's just tough to go there. Now, 759 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,159 he's not going against the veteran quarterback, but he's going 760 00:40:58,159 --> 00:41:01,239 against a veteran that's been in Super Bowl as well. 761 00:41:01,519 --> 00:41:04,480 But he's going against the veteran quarterback that's been around 762 00:41:04,519 --> 00:41:08,800 the league. So I think that the second half things 763 00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:12,280 will open up. They will make halftime adjustments, so you 764 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,320 can get this wager. I've seen it anywhere from minus 765 00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,719 one twenty five to minus one thirty five second half 766 00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:23,679 being the higher scoring half. Now, with that said, the 767 00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,079 play that I'm gonna use for a side wager for 768 00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:29,159 you guys here on the show is I'm gonna take 769 00:41:29,199 --> 00:41:31,599 Seattle and I'm gonna lay the three points in the 770 00:41:31,599 --> 00:41:35,000 first half. This is a spot where I'm gonna trust 771 00:41:35,039 --> 00:41:38,840 their defense and I'm gonna trust the fact that Mike 772 00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,480 Vrabel's not gonna take chances in that first half with 773 00:41:42,639 --> 00:41:45,639 his young quarterback. And I think that defense is gonna 774 00:41:45,639 --> 00:41:49,440 put pressure on New England. And if you look into 775 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,760 three games, and granted I'll be the first to point 776 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:56,239 it out, New England has played in bad weather in 777 00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,800 all of their games, but they haven't scored a lot 778 00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,800 of points in the first half. And I think Seattle, 779 00:42:02,639 --> 00:42:05,360 with that offense and with the weapons they have, they 780 00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:07,559 can run the football down your throat, they can throw 781 00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:11,920 the football with the wide receivers. I think they're gonna 782 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,519 have the early lead in this game. Give me Seattle 783 00:42:15,599 --> 00:42:19,119 minus three first half, give me the second half. Prop 784 00:42:19,199 --> 00:42:21,679 bet is the higher scoring half. Those are my two 785 00:42:21,679 --> 00:42:24,360 plays for you guys here on the show this week. 786 00:42:25,079 --> 00:42:28,199 Speaker 1: All right, Marco vr these guys are the best. Make 787 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,480 sure you be sure to tell them that in the 788 00:42:30,559 --> 00:42:33,519 comment section. We're running along, so I'm just gonna tell 789 00:42:33,519 --> 00:42:35,159 you guys, I'm on the Patriots. If you guys saw 790 00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:39,079 Opening Line Report, KIV and Crack, Kelly and Murray, every 791 00:42:39,079 --> 00:42:41,800 show I've done this week, I've given you guys my synopsis. 792 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,480 So we're just gonna wrap it up really quickly. I 793 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:45,960 don't think we're gonna see another five and a half, 794 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,480 but grab that five minus one oh eight right now 795 00:42:48,519 --> 00:42:52,119 over at the Westgates super Buck and uh, I'm not 796 00:42:52,119 --> 00:42:53,880 gonna sprinkle on the money line. I might come back 797 00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:55,599 after listening to Marko, I might come back if I 798 00:42:55,639 --> 00:42:58,559 can get like a low. I don't think i'm gonna 799 00:42:58,559 --> 00:42:59,920 get that lucky. I don't think i'm gonna get ot 800 00:42:59,920 --> 00:43:02,800 a low two dollars bet on the Seahawks, but I'm 801 00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:04,320 gonna keep an eye out for it and maybe try 802 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,719 to middle this one. Thank you guys for watching with 803 00:43:07,039 --> 00:43:11,480 us all season long. From VR, Marco and myself until 804 00:43:11,519 --> 00:43:13,519 next football season, Let's bet on it.