Speaker 1: Week thirteen college football. The five biggest games this Saturday,
November the twenty second. Your Top twenty five report is
ready right now. Hyas is Steve merrillwater talk dot Com
right back here on wager Talk TV. And as I
do every Saturday, I give you all the head to
head top twenty five matchups. And there are only two
true top twenty five matchups here in week thirteen because
a lot of the big name schools, especially the secs
like Alabama Georgia, they're all playing some FCS opponents this week.
So I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper and give
you three bonus games as well, with some top twenty
five teams mixed in with some teams that just fell
out of the rankings. But let's start with those two
official top twenty five matchups here for week thirteen, and
the first one goes early at noon Eastern high noon
on ABC Saturday, and that's number twenty two Missouri at
number eight Oklahoma. And the Missouri Tigers quarterback situation has
been dicey the last few weeks. They've been banged up
at QB. Still some uncertainty in this game, but one
thing that has been certain this season is Missouri has
been a very good defensive team, give it up just
a nineteen and a half actually nineteen point nine, just
under twenty points a game, just four and a half
yards per play. But the Oklahoma defense has been even better,
given up less than fifteen points a game and just
four point three yards per play. However, Oklahoma has not
been as strong offensively as in recent years. You know,
quarterback Materia was the heights bean favored a couple months ago,
got injured, and he's really done very little this year,
barely averaging over seven yards of pass eight touchdowns, seven interceptions.
And on the season, Oklahoma has been a very average
offensive team, averaging five point four yards per play against
teams that allow five point three. So they might struggle
to move the ball a bit against Missouri, but I
think Missoo's offense is gonna be banged up as well. Now.
They are a run based offense, averaging over two hundred
and forty rushing yards, so the quarterback situation a little
less of a concern here. The problem is Oklahoma has
a shutdown run defense, one of the best in the country,
given up just eighty two rushing yards a game, just
two point five yards per carry, so I do think
both offenses will be a disadvantage in this game, and
I would lean under in this one as well for
that reason. However, the odds makers have caught on to
the fact that both defenses had the edge, and it's
the pretty modest total open forty two and a half.
It has dropped to forty two in some spots circa
of Las Vegas has forty three. As long as it
stays above that key number of forty one or more,
I do think there's some value with the under in
this game. And the Missouri quarterback situation looks like it's
been upgraded a bit because this total head dropped to
forty one and a half earlier this week. Now it's
back up to forty two forty two and a half.
And the line opened to Oklahoma minus nine and a half.
Thursday afternoon, it was seven and a half, and now
heading into Friday, we're seeing sevens even some six and
a half. So it looks like Missouri's quarterback spot has
been upgraded based on the line move, and I do
think there's some value now with Oklahoma at that key
number of minus seven or less. We'll look at my
ten thousand game simulation, which I do every week for
every FBS game on the board, and on average, I've
got Oklahoma winning this game outright by more than twelve points.
So now that it's dropped to that key number of
minus seven, I do think there's some value with the
Sooners here in this game on Saturday afternoon at noon Eastern.
All right, your other true top twenty five matchup goes
at three thirty eastern on CBS in the Big ten.
How weird is that? USC Oregon Big ten? What it's
a PAC twelve matchup? Still damn it? Number fifteen USC
at number seven Oregon, And that once again is at
three thirty eastern on CBS. And this is another situation
where I think there's some value with the home favorite
at my ten thousand game simulation, and this one on
average has Oregon winning by over thirteen points a game.
And the current line as we head closer to the
weekend right now is Oregon minus ten. Here again, it's
sitting on a key number. It was nine and a half,
it's moved up to ten, and I'm seeing ten minus
fifteen at many locations, which makes me think it will
go up to ten and a half, perhaps by kickoff
Saturday afternoons. If you like Oregon, you probably want to
grab the minus ten. Now, if you like USC, I
would wait. You might get some plus ten and a halves.
And by the way, there's about a three to four
percent chance Oregon wins by exactly ten. It is a
key number, but I project a thirteen point wins. I'd
rather have the Ducks in this game with some line
value and also like the matchup as well. Know I
also give you my offense to the defensive ratings each week,
and these videos were applicable, and USC for most of
the season has been my number one ranked offense in
the country, but now they're coming in just number six.
They have fallen several spots over the past few weeks,
and one of the reasons is that their offense is
tapered off a bit in conference play. In fact, each
of the last four games, in three of the last
four games they have scored twenty six points or less
three of the last four weeks, not nearly as explosive
as they were a non conference play. And now the
USC has taken on a very good Oregon Ducks defense.
We always think of Oregon as an up tempo, fast
paced team with a lot of offense no defense. Well
that's not the case, by the way I do right.
Oregon's the tenth best offense. These are both top ten offenses,
but Oregon has a huge edge defensively. They come in
as my number three ranked defense in the country. USC
is barely in the top forty right now. The Ducks
d is for real, and they are balanced as well,
given up just three point two yards per carry just
five point one yards per pass against teams that average
six point nine. Now, USC has thrown for nine and
a half yards of pass, so this is a step
up in class for Oregon. But it's probably the best
pass defense USC has faced this year, and as I
mentioned earlier, they have regressed a bit in conference games
this season offensively, have not been nearly as explosive, at
least from a points perspective, as they have in regular
season games. I lean Oregon in this one based on
some line value as long as it stays below minus
ten or less. That's a three point thirty Eastern on CBS.
All right, those are two true top twenty five matchups.
I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper here for you
and give you three bonus games as well here in
the top twenty five card. And what I normally do
is I look at the additional votes as you know
in the A people now I'm using. By the way,
the rankings I'm using are the playoff College Football playoff
rankings for the top twenty five teams. But then in
order to dig a little bit deeper, we have to
use either the coaches full over the APO pole to
see the additional votes. And there are two teams that
are kind of on the outside looking in right now
in the AP pole, and that's number thirty Louisville against
number twenty eight SMU. Once again, Louisville and SMU not
ranked in the top twenty five right now in the
playoff rankings, but they are pretty close. If you look
at the additional votes in the AP pole, Louisville would
come in thirtieth this week. They're getting the fifth most
additional votes and SMU is getting the third most at
number twenty eight. By the way, this is an early
game at twelve noon Eastern on ESPN two. The Deuce
gets SMU and Louisville will start off with the points
spread in this game. Let's take a look at the
current line here in this one. We're seeing SMU right
now is about a two and a half to three
point favorite. A little bit money has coming on Louisville
this week, as the line opened as high as three
and a half. It's been bet down now to that
key number of three, and a lot of two and
a half's out there betting one oh one. And I'll
talk about this in the other two games we'll have
to bring up as well. Three is the key number
if you're new to sports betting. Football has key numbers three, seven, ten,
as I talked about earlier because of the way football
is scored mostly threes and sevens field goals and touchdowns
with extra points. So whenever you have a three, you
really need to shop around and try to get two
and a half or three and a half or three,
depending on what side you're on. As there's about an
eight to nine percent chance SMU is going to win
this game by exactly a field goal, So if you
like Louisville, you can find a plus three. If you
like SMU, there are minus two and a halfs with
a little extra juice which is worth paying on that
key number. Available. I like SMU in this game. I
project over a six point win on average with my
ten thousand game simulation, and I think the home team
gets it done in this one. And from a matchup perspective,
one thing I do like as well is that Louisville
strength this year has been running the ball over five
yards per carry. They've been a very average passing attack.
SMU has a decent pass defense, but a very strong
run de given up just over one hundred yards a
game two point nine yards per carry. So the strength
of the SMU defense I think can slow down Louisville's
rushing attack. And SMU is a more balanced, a better
passing team rather that can throw the ball in this
game and what's been a very good Louisville defense this year,
no question about it, but Louisville looks like they're perhaps
wearing down here down the stretch. They've lost each of
their past two games as a favorite outright against Cal
and Clemson, and they've gone just one and three against
the spread their last four. I like SMU here at
minus two and a half as I project a six
point win. That's at noon Eastern on ESPN two. Right
your next game has a team that just fell out
of the top twenty five, and that's Pittsburgh is coming
in thirty second now in the ap Pole against number
sixteen Georgia Tech. That's at seven pm Eastern Saturday night
on ESPN. And by the way, I gave you a
deep dive video on both this Pittsburgh Georgia Tech game
and the next game I'm going to talk about BYU
Cincinnati a two for one video this week here in
the channel. So I'm not going to spend too much
time breaking these games down because you can watch that
other video to get my full breakdown for both pitt
Georgia Tech and BYU Cincinnati. But as I'll point out
in this game, once again, sitting on that key number
of two and a half to three depending on where
you look, some spots have two and a half. Some
of the sharper allshore books have already moved to that
key number of three. So there is a little bit
of sharp money on Georgia Tech. If you like them,
I would play it sooner than later and grab the
minus two and a half with the little juice. If
you like Pittsburgh, there are some plus threes starting to
show him by seven o'clock Eastern Saturday night. I think
there'll be more plus threes. I'd prefer, though, to be
on the Georgia Tech side in this one. First of all,
my ten thousand game simulation shows that the line is fair.
On average. It projects Georgia Tech winning by just over
two points a game, almost two and a half points
a game, So the number is fair. But I like
the match up here, and I like the situational setup
for the home team. First of all, Pittsburgh's coming off
that tough loss, as I mentioned in Notre Dame knocked
them out of the rankings. Not only top twenty five,
they're not even top thirty anymore, and I think that
loss could linger against a physical Notre Dame team. And
pitt also had the turnover edge last week and still
lost that game by twenty two points, not a good sign. Meanwhile,
Georgia Tech has only lost all season once and that
was that NC State game a few games back on
November first. Good showing in that one. Defensively, they gave
up over five hundred and eighty total yards, but they
also have not forced to turnover in either of those
past two games, and they still found a way to
beat Boston College on the road, another lackluster defensive effort,
so that is a little bit of a concern, but
I'm just not sure Pittsburgh has the offense to take advantage.
Pitt barely had over two hundred total yards against Notre
Dame last week. Offensively and on the season, Pitt's been
very mediocre running the ball just three and a half
yards to carry against a Georgia Tech team that's been
weaker against the run this year than the past. Georgia
Tech has a substantial offensive edge, averaging nine and a
half yards per pass, six yards per carry, and over
seven and a half yards per play, much better offense,
more balanced offense, and at home. I think Georgia Tech
wins this game, which means a likely cover the short
number of minus two and a half. That's at seven
Eastern on ESPN, and then your final bonus game, as
I mentioned, is BYU Cincinnati. I also had that including
that two for one video with Pitt and Georgia Tech,
so if you want a deep dive, check out that
video after this game. This one, by the way, on
eight o'clock eastern on Fox, number eleven BYU against unranked
Cincinnati you know, Cincinnati snuck into the top twenty five
last week. They were twenty fifth exact in the playoff rankings,
and after their loss, they're not even getting a single
additional vote and either the coaches pull or the ape pole,
so they're really unranked now, barely a top forty team.
But I wanted to include them still in this video
because the points spread is pretty low here and they
do have a chance to get back on track once again.
Key number BYU a two and a half point favorite
and open two and a half. It's been sitting two
and a half all week, but we are starting to
see two and a half's minus fifteen, minus one twenty, which,
once again, if you like BYU, play it sooner than later.
If you like Cincinnati, wait, you might get a plus
three by kickoff on Saturday night. As far as my
ten thousand game simulation, just like the Georgia Tech game,
I think this line is spot on. I've got BYU
by about two point three two to two and a
half point average win here for BYU, so I think
the points spread is spot on in this one. But
what I do want to talk about is the total
in this game, and there's been some sharp money earlier
this week on the over. It opened fifty three. It's
been bet up to fifty five and a half, even
seeing some fifty six fifty six and a halfs at
some of the Sharper books around the world, and I
agree with that move. I think the over is the
play in this game. Cincinnati's defense is very suspect this season,
no question about it, and that's why they're a home
dog in this one. But their offense is for real
thirty four to a half points a game, over seven
yards per play, and it's a balanced attack six yards
per rush, eight and a half yards per pass. And
while BYU has a good statistical defense, they haven't faced
an offense like this. BYU's given up five yards of
play against teams at average five point seven. Cincinnati is
averaging seven point two yards per play, so a huge
step up in class. And BYU is a balanced offense
as well, over five yards per rush, almost eight yards
per pass, over six yards per play, so both teams
run and throw the ball well. And I think the
Cincinnati defense is definitely suspect, to say the least. And
this is a very modest total here, about fifty five
and a half. I like BYU and Cincinnati up and
over the total. That game once again is for you
at eight o'clock Eastern on Fox National TV Saturday night. Hey,
if you're liking these freeplay videos, all I asked truly
is a quick thumbs up like click that like button.
It takes two seconds. And hey, a positive comment below
is great as well, because I do read the comments
and I reply back. What other games do you like
this weekend on the betting board? Hey? Include your best
bets with some analysis below. Let's learn and earn and
win together here on wager Talk TV. And don't forget
click subscribe and click that bell for instant alert so
you never miss out when a free play video is
posted here on wager Talk TV. Now, these free TV
games are nice. I try to give you all the
weeknight college and pro football games Sunday, Monday night Pro Football,
College football Top twenty five reports, Saturday, nfl FA the
public Sunday. We all know that, but keep in mind
a lot of times these are like TV Leans only.
Sometimes they make my best bet card, but most of
the time they're like TV Leans only. The only way
to make sure you get all my official best bets
the actual games that I'm using each day is to
be a direct client at wager talk dot com. And
this is a great time of the year to be
an all Sport all Access subscriber because we have four
major sports going at once, college and pro football, and
college and pro basketball each and every day. And if
you'd like to try my all sports all Access, now's
the time to do it as well. Red Hot on
the seventy percent best bet run over the past couple weeks,
free players are cashing as well. And right now, when
you sign up for December, you get the rest of
November for free. That's right, the rest of November for free.
When you sign up for December, and now look, you
know you want to be on board for December, you
get college and pro football, the bowl games, conference championships,
some of the playoffs as well, NFL regular season continuing,
plus college and pro basketball each and every day. So
why wait until December? First sign up now and you
get this next week and a half of November included
for free. It's the rest of twenty twenty five All
sports all Access every day by December. The rest of
November three no promo code, need it It's on my
page right now, Steve Merrill a Talk dot com. Or
if you're ready to take a serious, long term, consistent
investment approach and make money each and every day for
the next year, three hundred and sixty five day all
Access passes the way to go, and the price has
never been better. Instant five hundred dollars discount right now,
plus a bonus twenty five percent coupon included as well
for my one year all Access pass and once again
couldn't be simpler, No promo code needed. Now this is
going to get you every college and pro football and
basketball best bet for the next three hundred and sixty
five days through late November next year, and it's also
going to get you all of next year's baseball season
as well. Keep in mind, we crushed it in the
MLB Playoffs just intoed a couple of weeks ago, finished
eleven and two with baseball best bets this postseason and
what was the greatest World Series I've ever seen. One
year all access This ensures you take a serious investment
approach and play consistently every day. And by the way,
if the instant five hundred dollars discount gets it down
to about a dollar a play for the next three
hundred and sixty five days and nights. And that is
a true three to sixty five because if I ever
passed when it's a small card. By the way, never
force anything. I only play games at have a true
mathematical edge. If we ever pass when it's a small card,
you get an extra day added to your subscription. So
you are short a definitely at least three hundred and
sixty five days of all access Best bet service Steve
Merrill wager talk dot com. Check out the specials whether
you want the by December, get the rest of November three,
or the one year all access with the instant five
hundred dollars discount. There are no promo codes needed. They're
listed on the main page right now, right above my
daily free play. Yeah that's right. I post a bonus
free play every day, and it is a strong opinion
because it is literally the last cut for my best
bet card. I'm very selective, maybe two to three best
bets per day, so I don't want to waste any
additional cuts. The strongest additional cut goes up as a
free play for everybody, and those are on a current
seventy percent run over the past month. Check out the
daily free play. Check out the previous best bets. The
last twenty are recapped at the bottom of the page
every day. You can click on them to read the
analysis as well. So go to my page on a
daily basis to get the free play with the analysis,
read the recaps of the other best bets, get my
current best bets, which are my personal plays, by the way,
and also check out those special offers. And by the way,
it's been the same for the past twenty nine plus
years since I began as a full time professional handicapper
way back in August of nineteen ninety six. If I'm
using a game, my clients get it as well. Doesn't
matter if you have a one day, a one week,
a one month, or one year subscription. Every client gets
the exact same personal best bets that I'm using each
and every day. Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com and
hey get there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz slash
sm on the way out. Don't forget to follow me
on social media on x and Instagram at Steve Merrill
two RS one L M E R R I L
at Steve Merrill on x and Instagram, and stay tune
near to wager Talk TV because you know there's more
free play videos coming up next