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Speaker 1: Week thirteen college football. The five biggest games this Saturday,

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November the twenty second. Your Top twenty five report is

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ready right now. Hyas is Steve merrillwater talk dot Com

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right back here on wager Talk TV. And as I

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do every Saturday, I give you all the head to

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head top twenty five matchups. And there are only two

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true top twenty five matchups here in week thirteen because

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a lot of the big name schools, especially the secs

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like Alabama Georgia, they're all playing some FCS opponents this week.

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So I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper and give

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you three bonus games as well, with some top twenty

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five teams mixed in with some teams that just fell

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out of the rankings. But let's start with those two

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official top twenty five matchups here for week thirteen, and

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the first one goes early at noon Eastern high noon

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on ABC Saturday, and that's number twenty two Missouri at

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number eight Oklahoma. And the Missouri Tigers quarterback situation has

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been dicey the last few weeks. They've been banged up

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at QB. Still some uncertainty in this game, but one

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thing that has been certain this season is Missouri has

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been a very good defensive team, give it up just

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a nineteen and a half actually nineteen point nine, just

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under twenty points a game, just four and a half

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yards per play. But the Oklahoma defense has been even better,

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given up less than fifteen points a game and just

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four point three yards per play. However, Oklahoma has not

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been as strong offensively as in recent years. You know,

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quarterback Materia was the heights bean favored a couple months ago,

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got injured, and he's really done very little this year,

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barely averaging over seven yards of pass eight touchdowns, seven interceptions.

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And on the season, Oklahoma has been a very average

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offensive team, averaging five point four yards per play against

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teams that allow five point three. So they might struggle

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to move the ball a bit against Missouri, but I

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think Missoo's offense is gonna be banged up as well. Now.

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They are a run based offense, averaging over two hundred

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and forty rushing yards, so the quarterback situation a little

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less of a concern here. The problem is Oklahoma has

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a shutdown run defense, one of the best in the country,

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given up just eighty two rushing yards a game, just

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two point five yards per carry, so I do think

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both offenses will be a disadvantage in this game, and

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I would lean under in this one as well for

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that reason. However, the odds makers have caught on to

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the fact that both defenses had the edge, and it's

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the pretty modest total open forty two and a half.

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It has dropped to forty two in some spots circa

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of Las Vegas has forty three. As long as it

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stays above that key number of forty one or more,

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I do think there's some value with the under in

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this game. And the Missouri quarterback situation looks like it's

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been upgraded a bit because this total head dropped to

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forty one and a half earlier this week. Now it's

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back up to forty two forty two and a half.

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And the line opened to Oklahoma minus nine and a half.

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Thursday afternoon, it was seven and a half, and now

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heading into Friday, we're seeing sevens even some six and

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a half. So it looks like Missouri's quarterback spot has

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been upgraded based on the line move, and I do

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think there's some value now with Oklahoma at that key

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number of minus seven or less. We'll look at my

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ten thousand game simulation, which I do every week for

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every FBS game on the board, and on average, I've

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got Oklahoma winning this game outright by more than twelve points.

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So now that it's dropped to that key number of

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minus seven, I do think there's some value with the

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Sooners here in this game on Saturday afternoon at noon Eastern.

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All right, your other true top twenty five matchup goes

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at three thirty eastern on CBS in the Big ten.

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How weird is that? USC Oregon Big ten? What it's

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a PAC twelve matchup? Still damn it? Number fifteen USC

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at number seven Oregon, And that once again is at

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three thirty eastern on CBS. And this is another situation

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where I think there's some value with the home favorite

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at my ten thousand game simulation, and this one on

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average has Oregon winning by over thirteen points a game.

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And the current line as we head closer to the

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weekend right now is Oregon minus ten. Here again, it's

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sitting on a key number. It was nine and a half,

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it's moved up to ten, and I'm seeing ten minus

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fifteen at many locations, which makes me think it will

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go up to ten and a half, perhaps by kickoff

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Saturday afternoons. If you like Oregon, you probably want to

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grab the minus ten. Now, if you like USC, I

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would wait. You might get some plus ten and a halves.

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And by the way, there's about a three to four

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percent chance Oregon wins by exactly ten. It is a

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key number, but I project a thirteen point wins. I'd

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rather have the Ducks in this game with some line

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value and also like the matchup as well. Know I

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also give you my offense to the defensive ratings each week,

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and these videos were applicable, and USC for most of

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the season has been my number one ranked offense in

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the country, but now they're coming in just number six.

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They have fallen several spots over the past few weeks,

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and one of the reasons is that their offense is

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tapered off a bit in conference play. In fact, each

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of the last four games, in three of the last

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four games they have scored twenty six points or less

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three of the last four weeks, not nearly as explosive

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as they were a non conference play. And now the

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USC has taken on a very good Oregon Ducks defense.

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We always think of Oregon as an up tempo, fast

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paced team with a lot of offense no defense. Well

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that's not the case, by the way I do right.

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Oregon's the tenth best offense. These are both top ten offenses,

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but Oregon has a huge edge defensively. They come in

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as my number three ranked defense in the country. USC

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is barely in the top forty right now. The Ducks

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d is for real, and they are balanced as well,

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given up just three point two yards per carry just

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five point one yards per pass against teams that average

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six point nine. Now, USC has thrown for nine and

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a half yards of pass, so this is a step

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up in class for Oregon. But it's probably the best

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pass defense USC has faced this year, and as I

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mentioned earlier, they have regressed a bit in conference games

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this season offensively, have not been nearly as explosive, at

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least from a points perspective, as they have in regular

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season games. I lean Oregon in this one based on

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some line value as long as it stays below minus

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ten or less. That's a three point thirty Eastern on CBS.

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All right, those are two true top twenty five matchups.

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I'm gonna dig a little bit deeper here for you

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and give you three bonus games as well here in

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the top twenty five card. And what I normally do

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is I look at the additional votes as you know

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in the A people now I'm using. By the way,

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the rankings I'm using are the playoff College Football playoff

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rankings for the top twenty five teams. But then in

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order to dig a little bit deeper, we have to

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use either the coaches full over the APO pole to

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see the additional votes. And there are two teams that

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are kind of on the outside looking in right now

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in the AP pole, and that's number thirty Louisville against

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number twenty eight SMU. Once again, Louisville and SMU not

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ranked in the top twenty five right now in the

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playoff rankings, but they are pretty close. If you look

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at the additional votes in the AP pole, Louisville would

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come in thirtieth this week. They're getting the fifth most

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additional votes and SMU is getting the third most at

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number twenty eight. By the way, this is an early

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game at twelve noon Eastern on ESPN two. The Deuce

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gets SMU and Louisville will start off with the points

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spread in this game. Let's take a look at the

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current line here in this one. We're seeing SMU right

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now is about a two and a half to three

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point favorite. A little bit money has coming on Louisville

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this week, as the line opened as high as three

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and a half. It's been bet down now to that

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key number of three, and a lot of two and

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a half's out there betting one oh one. And I'll

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talk about this in the other two games we'll have

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to bring up as well. Three is the key number

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if you're new to sports betting. Football has key numbers three, seven, ten,

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as I talked about earlier because of the way football

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is scored mostly threes and sevens field goals and touchdowns

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with extra points. So whenever you have a three, you

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really need to shop around and try to get two

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and a half or three and a half or three,

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depending on what side you're on. As there's about an

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eight to nine percent chance SMU is going to win

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this game by exactly a field goal, So if you

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like Louisville, you can find a plus three. If you

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like SMU, there are minus two and a halfs with

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a little extra juice which is worth paying on that

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key number. Available. I like SMU in this game. I

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project over a six point win on average with my

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ten thousand game simulation, and I think the home team

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gets it done in this one. And from a matchup perspective,

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one thing I do like as well is that Louisville

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strength this year has been running the ball over five

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yards per carry. They've been a very average passing attack.

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SMU has a decent pass defense, but a very strong

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run de given up just over one hundred yards a

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game two point nine yards per carry. So the strength

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of the SMU defense I think can slow down Louisville's

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rushing attack. And SMU is a more balanced, a better

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passing team rather that can throw the ball in this

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game and what's been a very good Louisville defense this year,

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no question about it, but Louisville looks like they're perhaps

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wearing down here down the stretch. They've lost each of

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their past two games as a favorite outright against Cal

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and Clemson, and they've gone just one and three against

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the spread their last four. I like SMU here at

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minus two and a half as I project a six

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point win. That's at noon Eastern on ESPN two. Right

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your next game has a team that just fell out

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of the top twenty five, and that's Pittsburgh is coming

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in thirty second now in the ap Pole against number

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sixteen Georgia Tech. That's at seven pm Eastern Saturday night

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on ESPN. And by the way, I gave you a

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deep dive video on both this Pittsburgh Georgia Tech game

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and the next game I'm going to talk about BYU

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Cincinnati a two for one video this week here in

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the channel. So I'm not going to spend too much

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time breaking these games down because you can watch that

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other video to get my full breakdown for both pitt

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Georgia Tech and BYU Cincinnati. But as I'll point out

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in this game, once again, sitting on that key number

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of two and a half to three depending on where

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you look, some spots have two and a half. Some

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of the sharper allshore books have already moved to that

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key number of three. So there is a little bit

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of sharp money on Georgia Tech. If you like them,

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I would play it sooner than later and grab the

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minus two and a half with the little juice. If

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you like Pittsburgh, there are some plus threes starting to

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show him by seven o'clock Eastern Saturday night. I think

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there'll be more plus threes. I'd prefer, though, to be

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on the Georgia Tech side in this one. First of all,

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my ten thousand game simulation shows that the line is fair.

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On average. It projects Georgia Tech winning by just over

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two points a game, almost two and a half points

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a game, So the number is fair. But I like

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the match up here, and I like the situational setup

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for the home team. First of all, Pittsburgh's coming off

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that tough loss, as I mentioned in Notre Dame knocked

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them out of the rankings. Not only top twenty five,

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they're not even top thirty anymore, and I think that

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loss could linger against a physical Notre Dame team. And

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pitt also had the turnover edge last week and still

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lost that game by twenty two points, not a good sign. Meanwhile,

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Georgia Tech has only lost all season once and that

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was that NC State game a few games back on

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November first. Good showing in that one. Defensively, they gave

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up over five hundred and eighty total yards, but they

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also have not forced to turnover in either of those

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past two games, and they still found a way to

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beat Boston College on the road, another lackluster defensive effort,

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so that is a little bit of a concern, but

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I'm just not sure Pittsburgh has the offense to take advantage.

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Pitt barely had over two hundred total yards against Notre

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Dame last week. Offensively and on the season, Pitt's been

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very mediocre running the ball just three and a half

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yards to carry against a Georgia Tech team that's been

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weaker against the run this year than the past. Georgia

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Tech has a substantial offensive edge, averaging nine and a

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half yards per pass, six yards per carry, and over

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seven and a half yards per play, much better offense,

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more balanced offense, and at home. I think Georgia Tech

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wins this game, which means a likely cover the short

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number of minus two and a half. That's at seven

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Eastern on ESPN, and then your final bonus game, as

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I mentioned, is BYU Cincinnati. I also had that including

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that two for one video with Pitt and Georgia Tech,

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so if you want a deep dive, check out that

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video after this game. This one, by the way, on

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eight o'clock eastern on Fox, number eleven BYU against unranked

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Cincinnati you know, Cincinnati snuck into the top twenty five

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last week. They were twenty fifth exact in the playoff rankings,

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and after their loss, they're not even getting a single

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additional vote and either the coaches pull or the ape pole,

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so they're really unranked now, barely a top forty team.

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But I wanted to include them still in this video

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because the points spread is pretty low here and they

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do have a chance to get back on track once again.

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Key number BYU a two and a half point favorite

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00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:34,360
and open two and a half. It's been sitting two

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00:11:34,399 --> 00:11:35,840
and a half all week, but we are starting to

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see two and a half's minus fifteen, minus one twenty, which,

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once again, if you like BYU, play it sooner than later.

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If you like Cincinnati, wait, you might get a plus

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three by kickoff on Saturday night. As far as my

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ten thousand game simulation, just like the Georgia Tech game,

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I think this line is spot on. I've got BYU

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by about two point three two to two and a

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half point average win here for BYU, so I think

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the points spread is spot on in this one. But

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what I do want to talk about is the total

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in this game, and there's been some sharp money earlier

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this week on the over. It opened fifty three. It's

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been bet up to fifty five and a half, even

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00:12:09,399 --> 00:12:11,600
seeing some fifty six fifty six and a halfs at

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some of the Sharper books around the world, and I

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agree with that move. I think the over is the

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play in this game. Cincinnati's defense is very suspect this season,

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no question about it, and that's why they're a home

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dog in this one. But their offense is for real

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thirty four to a half points a game, over seven

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00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,000
yards per play, and it's a balanced attack six yards

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per rush, eight and a half yards per pass. And

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while BYU has a good statistical defense, they haven't faced

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an offense like this. BYU's given up five yards of

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play against teams at average five point seven. Cincinnati is

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00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,679
averaging seven point two yards per play, so a huge

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step up in class. And BYU is a balanced offense

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as well, over five yards per rush, almost eight yards

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per pass, over six yards per play, so both teams

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run and throw the ball well. And I think the

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Cincinnati defense is definitely suspect, to say the least. And

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this is a very modest total here, about fifty five

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00:13:01,399 --> 00:13:03,840
and a half. I like BYU and Cincinnati up and

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00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:06,320
over the total. That game once again is for you

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00:13:06,399 --> 00:13:11,240
at eight o'clock Eastern on Fox National TV Saturday night. Hey,

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if you're liking these freeplay videos, all I asked truly

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It takes two seconds. And hey, a positive comment below

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is great as well, because I do read the comments

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00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,879
and I reply back. What other games do you like

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00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,639
this weekend on the betting board? Hey? Include your best

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bets with some analysis below. Let's learn and earn and

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win together here on wager Talk TV. And don't forget

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click subscribe and click that bell for instant alert so

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posted here on wager Talk TV. Now, these free TV

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games are nice. I try to give you all the

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weeknight college and pro football games Sunday, Monday night Pro Football,

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College football Top twenty five reports, Saturday, nfl FA the

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public Sunday. We all know that, but keep in mind

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a lot of times these are like TV Leans only.

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Sometimes they make my best bet card, but most of

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the time they're like TV Leans only. The only way

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to make sure you get all my official best bets

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five days through late November next year, and it's also

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going to get you all of next year's baseball season

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a true three to sixty five because if I ever

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passed when it's a small card. By the way, never

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force anything. I only play games at have a true

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mathematical edge. If we ever pass when it's a small card,

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you are short a definitely at least three hundred and

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Merrill wager talk dot com. Check out the specials whether

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listed on the main page right now, right above my

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free play every day, and it is a strong opinion

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because it is literally the last cut for my best

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bet card. I'm very selective, maybe two to three best

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bets per day, so I don't want to waste any

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free play for everybody, and those are on a current

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seventy percent run over the past month. Check out the

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daily free play. Check out the previous best bets. The

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last twenty are recapped at the bottom of the page

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every day. You can click on them to read the

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analysis as well. So go to my page on a

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daily basis to get the free play with the analysis,

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read the recaps of the other best bets, get my

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current best bets, which are my personal plays, by the way,

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and also check out those special offers. And by the way,

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it's been the same for the past twenty nine plus

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years since I began as a full time professional handicapper

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way back in August of nineteen ninety six. If I'm

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using a game, my clients get it as well. Doesn't

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matter if you have a one day, a one week,

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and every day. Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com and

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hey get there quicker with shortcut wt dot buzz slash

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sm on the way out. Don't forget to follow me

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on social media on x and Instagram at Steve Merrill

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two RS one L M E R R I L

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at Steve Merrill on x and Instagram, and stay tune

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near to wager Talk TV because you know there's more

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free play videos coming up next