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<v Speaker 1>With Laurent Segeland from London and Gerard Read from Berlin.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, on Redefining Energy, we're going to talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>Tony Blair Institute recent report on climber, which we warmly

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<v Speaker 2>recommend people not to read.

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<v Speaker 3>Joining us on the show, our partner in crime, the Fearless,

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<v Speaker 3>the Invincible, Michael Barnard, the three of us, we have

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<v Speaker 3>put together the most downloaded episode of the past twelve

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<v Speaker 3>months of prediction, extremely popular, and of course the episode

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<v Speaker 3>on Bill Gates where we were not very nuts. I

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<v Speaker 3>really won't though, where we still have guests because we're

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<v Speaker 3>better off babbling together. So without further ado, Michael Barnard, Michael,

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<v Speaker 3>welcome to the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Great to be here again.

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<v Speaker 3>Talking about the Tony Blay Institute. Probably child first, we're

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<v Speaker 3>going to talk about Tony Blair because for those Billow

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<v Speaker 3>forty years old or American audience, probably Tony Blair is

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<v Speaker 3>like a forgotten name. So just remind us of his career.

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<v Speaker 2>What Tony player was Labor Prime Minister in the UK

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<v Speaker 2>from nineteen ninety seven to two thousand and seven and

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<v Speaker 2>really popular through that whole period until the Iraq War.

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<v Speaker 2>Came really two thousand and three, and that sort of

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<v Speaker 2>has left to sort of stain in and around his reputation.

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<v Speaker 2>But he definitely was the sort of body called the

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<v Speaker 2>cultural icon and around the center left in the Labor Party.

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<v Speaker 2>So he took the Labor Party more from the left

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<v Speaker 2>side to the center. And really, you know, you could

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<v Speaker 2>say he was the most charismatic European leader of his era.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, he was young. And if you look at the period,

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<v Speaker 3>China was still an economic mino. The Russian early garchs

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<v Speaker 3>were busy killing themselves rather than killing us. The Gulf

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<v Speaker 3>States wonder construction. It was low. Europe was expanding, what

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<v Speaker 3>three percent grows? It was cool. Britannia where the spies

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<v Speaker 3>girls the most at my company was Gee, the big

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<v Speaker 3>company were IBM, AOL andron Kodak Nokia. So it's a

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<v Speaker 3>different it's a different epoch.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And in the United States had turned into a gerontocracy.

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<v Speaker 1>Bill Clinton was the charismatic, young, energetic leader that was

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<v Speaker 1>Blair's foil on either side of the Atlantic until he wasn't.

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<v Speaker 3>After his tenure as Prime Minister, he becomes lead the

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<v Speaker 3>list envoy whatever that means. It means you go a

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<v Speaker 3>lot to the Middle East. That was until two or fifteen,

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<v Speaker 3>and then he created the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change,

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<v Speaker 3>the Tony Blair Institute. What is it right now, Jod.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a good question, ruh. I mean, ultimately, they produce

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<v Speaker 2>lots of reports and the lobbin that's what they do.

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<v Speaker 2>Huge budget, one hundred million dollars. I suppose they model

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<v Speaker 2>themselves really on the Clinking Foundation in the US, and

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<v Speaker 2>some people listen to them.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of people listen to them. Look the stuff

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<v Speaker 3>of eight hundredd which is a lot. And if you

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<v Speaker 3>look at their website, they do government advisory services, which

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<v Speaker 3>is his name, lobbying for governments and they have no

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<v Speaker 3>problem dealing with any type of regime. They got a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of money from Ceudi Arabia, from Azerbaijan. Big funders

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<v Speaker 3>also are the Larryalism Foundation, the Gates Foundation. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>a very cozy DeVos world we have here.

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<v Speaker 2>And actually, by the way, they do write quite a

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<v Speaker 2>bit on energy. Yeah, they don't write very well on energy,

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<v Speaker 2>but they do write on energy.

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<v Speaker 3>So they publish their report on policy two or three

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<v Speaker 3>per months on anything like health, economics, technology, governance and

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<v Speaker 3>climate change. And if I look at the statistics, one

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<v Speaker 3>in four of the report are related to energy. And

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<v Speaker 3>the reason we're having that conversation today is because last

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<v Speaker 3>month the release they are now infamous Climate Paradox report,

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<v Speaker 3>which triggered a certain number of number one wonderful coverage

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<v Speaker 3>by the classic media, the ft the Bloomberg, Oh my god,

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<v Speaker 3>Tony Blair is so brilliant and so and a few

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<v Speaker 3>eark reaction, once from Michael Levage and his substack and

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<v Speaker 3>the other one by Michael Barnard on a clean Technicia.

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<v Speaker 3>The auto is Lindy Firstman, and she's the head of

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<v Speaker 3>energy policy for the Tony Blind Institute. And she has

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<v Speaker 3>a PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, and she has

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<v Speaker 3>done her all work in academia, government and ngios. I

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<v Speaker 3>think she never worked in the company in her whole life,

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<v Speaker 3>but I'm sure she's very talented. Okay, let's go back

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<v Speaker 3>to the report. Child.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, at the end of the day, it's a

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<v Speaker 2>report for me that's follow words. Now, why do I

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<v Speaker 2>start with full of words? Is because nobody reads reports

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<v Speaker 2>like that anymore. I mean, I think there was two

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<v Speaker 2>graphs in the whole thing, right, you have to do

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<v Speaker 2>a word search to understand it. But what I will

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<v Speaker 2>say is, maybe take a step back. What I would

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<v Speaker 2>look at is the first recommendation of the report is

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<v Speaker 2>accelerating scaling technologies that capture carbon. Then it's harnessing the

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<v Speaker 2>power technology including area, investing in breakthrough in frontier energy solutions,

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<v Speaker 2>scaling nature based solutions. So the whole message is that

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<v Speaker 2>we don't have the technologies in place to actually solve

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<v Speaker 2>the issue. And actually what annoys me by this is,

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<v Speaker 2>and I will talk about the technologies head run, we

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<v Speaker 2>do have the technologies right and also, by the way,

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<v Speaker 2>they're also low cost. So when I listened to this

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<v Speaker 2>and when I read it, and I read it with

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<v Speaker 2>some of the comments and newspapers, I looked at it

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<v Speaker 2>and I went, Okay, this is the typical blocking strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>And what we're seeing a present is a fossil fuel

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<v Speaker 2>industry that is doing a huge amount of financing of

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<v Speaker 2>anti renewabilization, anti electrification. And there's a reason why because listen,

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<v Speaker 2>they've got huge amounts of assets in play, and guess

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<v Speaker 2>what if electrification and renewabilization happens quicker, it's very, very

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<v Speaker 2>bad for their business. So that's certainly what you're seeing

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<v Speaker 2>in the media. So when I saw this report, i'ment, ah,

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<v Speaker 2>this is just propaganda, you know. But Michael, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know you wrote something of this. What was your initial

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<v Speaker 2>reaction what you saw this? Well, I'm just going to.

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<v Speaker 1>Lean back into the primary energy fallacy. These people are

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<v Speaker 1>in the same camp as Vaclav Smell. So we can't

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<v Speaker 1>get there from here in less than a century, which

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<v Speaker 1>just isn't true. The primary energy fallacy. Brief primary on

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<v Speaker 1>that right now, A bunch of energy comes into our

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<v Speaker 1>economies because it's fossil fuels. We burn it and we

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<v Speaker 1>get fifteen to fifty percent of the energy, and the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of it we waste. It is waste heat in

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<v Speaker 1>an electrified economy, Well, guess what we waste a lot

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<v Speaker 1>less of the energy wind turbines to heat pumps actually

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<v Speaker 1>gives us excess energy from the environment. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be down forty percent of the energy coming into our

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<v Speaker 1>economy to deliver all the same economic comfort and convenience

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<v Speaker 1>benefits we get. No anybody who's driven an electric car

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<v Speaker 1>knows this. They accelerate faster, they're a quiet, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>think they're full in the morning when you get up

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<v Speaker 1>and hop into them, and you can use an app

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<v Speaker 1>make sure they're warm when you get in. That future

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<v Speaker 1>is a lot lower waste than the present. And Smill

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<v Speaker 1>just kind of miss that he in his very influential

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<v Speaker 1>books on this. Bill Gates was a big fan read

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<v Speaker 1>apparently all of Smill's thirty seven books. Smill just missed it.

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<v Speaker 1>It was only in twenty twenty one that Vaclav Smill

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<v Speaker 1>wrote a monograph of three pages acknowledging the primer energy

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<v Speaker 1>fallacy and didn't change the assumptions that he'd gotten wrong

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<v Speaker 1>in his books. And Tony Blair is in the same space.

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<v Speaker 1>They're saying energy use has only ever gone up in

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<v Speaker 1>every energy transition. It's always been an energy addition, ignoring

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that we don't burn whale oil and lamps

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<v Speaker 1>and albums anymore. The primary energy fallacy is the big one.

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<v Speaker 1>People have done big studies on this, mark said Jacobson

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<v Speaker 1>did this in the two thousands, did a whole bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of work to say what would an electrifying economy look

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<v Speaker 1>like in terms of energy demand. Saul Griffiths did this

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<v Speaker 1>under contract to the US Department of Energy in the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty tens and I did my basic Napcin math. It

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<v Speaker 1>only takes Napkin math to show this, and apparently Napkin

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<v Speaker 1>math and reading decades of articulation of this is beyond

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<v Speaker 1>the Blair Institute's capacity. That's my first observation.

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<v Speaker 3>Lurm, what was your thoughts on when My thoughts was

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<v Speaker 3>very simple, because I did the word count and the

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<v Speaker 3>world DAK directa capture a peard eleven times, CCS nine times,

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<v Speaker 3>capture seventeen times, NUCAR eight times, wind four times, so

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<v Speaker 3>last six times give you a bit of an idea.

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<v Speaker 3>And of course the second thing which triggered this current

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<v Speaker 3>episode is on the cover there's a picture of the

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<v Speaker 3>I would say famous or infamous climb Works direct air

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<v Speaker 3>capture plant in Iceland. The week after the publication of

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<v Speaker 3>the report, the posta child for direct air capture, which

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<v Speaker 3>I call deception, amatterism and con because that's what DAC

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<v Speaker 3>is about, started showing the real numbers of how much

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<v Speaker 3>the capture and it's an absolute joke. And immediately Michael

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<v Speaker 3>wrote another uped on Clint Technica. Michael, can you talk

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<v Speaker 3>a bit about climb Works, which is the posta child

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<v Speaker 3>of Tony Blair.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a bit about the problem they're trying to solve.

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<v Speaker 1>They're trying to drag CO two out of the atmosphere.

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<v Speaker 1>The analogy uses, you've got a beach full of dark

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<v Speaker 1>black sand, and there's a million grains of black sand,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's four hundred and thirty grains of dark gray sand,

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<v Speaker 1>and your job is to take the dark gray sand out. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 1>somebody else is scattering dark gray sand over the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the beach. As you're sipping through the sand looking

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<v Speaker 1>for those individual ones. It's just an entropic nightmare. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a waste of time. And from a materiality perspective, you

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<v Speaker 1>need to get up to one hundred million tons a

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<v Speaker 1>year to be making a dent in the forty billion

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<v Speaker 1>tons a year of CO two that we're adding. So

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<v Speaker 1>those are the numbers, like they're big numbers now, Clime

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<v Speaker 1>Works this was their second plant. Their first plant was

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<v Speaker 1>orca ten thousand tons a year. In theory has not

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<v Speaker 1>hit those numbers. Then they're building Mammoth, and Mammoth is

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<v Speaker 1>the one that hit the headlines because an investigative journalist

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<v Speaker 1>found that it, though was designed for forty thousand tons

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<v Speaker 1>a year forty thousand, it had managed to remove one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and five tons in twenty twenty four, and they

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<v Speaker 1>have all sorts of excuses for that. But the other

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<v Speaker 1>thing is I like to their sustainability page to look

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<v Speaker 1>for their metrics, and you'd figure they'd say, here blazon

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<v Speaker 1>how much carbon we've sequestered. They never tell anybody on

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<v Speaker 1>their website how much CO two they've actually seequestered, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a remarkable gap for a firm which is whose

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<v Speaker 1>only purpose is permanent speek questation in CO two. It's fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>And I've got a long history of looking at direct

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<v Speaker 1>air captures or was it deception, amateurism and cons yep.

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<v Speaker 1>I looked at carbon engineerings back in twenty nineteen, and

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<v Speaker 1>I spoken to the founders of Global Thermostat, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that was in twenty ten. You know, I've

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<v Speaker 1>talked to people all over the space, David Keith, and

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<v Speaker 1>I just never found anything worth doing in the entire

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<v Speaker 1>space because none of them scale up to that degree

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<v Speaker 1>of materiality. And cly Works is no different. Eight hundred

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars, five hundred staff. Now they're laying off staff

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<v Speaker 1>because all gee thermodynamic and entropic reality is just proving

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<v Speaker 1>that they're not going to ever be dirt cheap, and

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<v Speaker 1>they have to be dirt cheap and or to be relevant.

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<v Speaker 3>Now one hundred five tons. To give our listeners a

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<v Speaker 3>bit of an idea, if you fly going from from

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<v Speaker 3>London to New York, that one hundred and sixty five tons,

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<v Speaker 3>So they did not even compensate for one flight. And

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<v Speaker 3>there is eight hundred million at stake. Now that lab

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<v Speaker 3>in research to do some that's all when I'm fine,

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<v Speaker 3>But we're talking eight hundred million, and we're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>serious people which have been advocating it. You want to

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<v Speaker 3>talk about serious people, Let's talk about the people who

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<v Speaker 3>financed them their Series A into twenty two, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the Hey days. So we have Partners Group. Of course,

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<v Speaker 3>some people say, okay, Climb works, they're Swiss, they bring

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<v Speaker 3>Swiss Ray, they bring Partners Group. The guy who signed

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<v Speaker 3>off and it's not me. I mean it's on the

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<v Speaker 3>press release they did way back when you add the

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<v Speaker 3>vice CEO, Alfred Gartner, you had the Esther Piiner, head

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<v Speaker 3>of infrastructure. I mean those people normally they're serious. Esther

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<v Speaker 3>I know her, she's doing some real investment, but what

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<v Speaker 3>the heck is she doing in climb works? And then

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<v Speaker 3>they brought in poor guys because I'm sure they didn't

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<v Speaker 3>have time to re see what's going on. They broad

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<v Speaker 3>in the g i C, the Singapore Sovereign Wildfront. Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>they brought in so Swiss Ray so is Christian Momentary,

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<v Speaker 3>our CEO at the time now is gone. But the

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<v Speaker 3>guy who did the investment, mich Repman, is still there.

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<v Speaker 3>And of course the guys who did the placement is

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<v Speaker 3>JP Morgan. They are names same on the press release,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's not you know, it's not a new secret.

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<v Speaker 3>Brandy Marino, ed Zichell. They're there, the Global ad of

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<v Speaker 3>Sustainability and so on. A lot of those people are

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<v Speaker 3>still around, and of course the question is are they

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<v Speaker 3>going to ask to pony up for the second rounds?

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<v Speaker 3>Because for me that smell like tuna bonds. The people

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<v Speaker 3>in the finance industry know what I'm talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I just guys, it's easy easy criticize, and we're

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<v Speaker 2>right to do so, but I just want to just

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the reality of what's going on in the

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<v Speaker 2>world of electrification. So the first thing is just take

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<v Speaker 2>the case of solar. There were six hundred kickawats install

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<v Speaker 2>last year just in terms of power produced without six

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<v Speaker 2>hundred kick awats. This here, that's the equivalent of Japan's

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<v Speaker 2>demand needs for the whole year. That's the scale. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>saying this because it's the scale at which that technology

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<v Speaker 2>is coming to market, right. And the second thing is,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll take the case of lithium ion batteries. If you

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<v Speaker 2>went back twenty twenty, it was two hundred gig of

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<v Speaker 2>what hours of batteries produced a year. We're over eleven

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<v Speaker 2>hundred now, fourfoldingquish Again, I'm just giving you an example

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<v Speaker 2>that's for me technology innovation and speed to market. And

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<v Speaker 2>we go back to what you said about backlaf Smell.

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<v Speaker 2>He does not understand the technology change that's going on

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<v Speaker 2>around it now. The one thing I did like in

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<v Speaker 2>the report is the mention of AI because AI is

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<v Speaker 2>really critical because what AI does is it enables you

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<v Speaker 2>to manage this complexity going forward in a much better

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<v Speaker 2>way than before. And I would also say a lower

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<v Speaker 2>cost way. And that's the reality of what we're in now.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's not again to put into context. The technologies

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<v Speaker 2>are here and they're coming faster than whatever everybody thinks.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd like to lean into that because one of the

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<v Speaker 1>takeaways I also get in addition to them not understanding that,

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<v Speaker 1>not understanding the primary energy fallacy, Clearly they've never looked

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<v Speaker 1>at anything China has been doing for the past two years.

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<v Speaker 1>If they're asserting nuclear is the answer, wind and solar

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<v Speaker 1>and batteries and storage arn't. So let's give some numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>Last week, it was announced by an analyst who spends

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<v Speaker 1>all this time assessing stuff that China's emissions of CO

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<v Speaker 1>two declined by one percent from March last year to

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<v Speaker 1>March this year, despite their economy growing substantially.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow. I didn't see that. Wow, But that's big news.

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<v Speaker 2>That's brilliant.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. This is not decoupling. This is decline. This is

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<v Speaker 1>not slowing of growth. This is decline of the emissions

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<v Speaker 1>over a year. And this is the first one without

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<v Speaker 1>a forced third event like it declined in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>two because of COVID twenty twenty twenty two. But that

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<v Speaker 1>was a global slowdown. This is economic growth, a vibrant economy,

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<v Speaker 1>no matter what the headlines and the economists say. They've

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<v Speaker 1>had twenty five years of getting China of publishing, China

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<v Speaker 1>is doomed headlines. They've been wrong every time, and so

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<v Speaker 1>the next thing. Coal generation dropped by four point seven

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<v Speaker 1>percent Q one twenty twenty four to Q one twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five, despite having an over five percent GDP growth

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<v Speaker 1>and a growth of electricity demand of total electricity consumed

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<v Speaker 1>in the economy and a bunch of that. The actual

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<v Speaker 1>grid demand drops slightly, but behind the meter solar. They've

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<v Speaker 1>hammered in so much that a drop in grid demand

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<v Speaker 1>is not indicative of a drop in octification, quite the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>What that is is an indication of their ten thousand

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<v Speaker 1>villages Bloom program, where they basically ask an EPC contractor

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<v Speaker 1>to do an entire county of rooftops at once, is working.

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<v Speaker 1>So China is buying more electric cars than any country

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<v Speaker 1>except Norway. Half the grid batteries went in China last year.

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<v Speaker 1>They're building three undred and sixty five gigawatts about twelve

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<v Speaker 1>to fourteen tarawan hours of pump hydro. They have that

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<v Speaker 1>in operation, building it today or in plan to start

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<v Speaker 1>by twenty thirty. They hit their renewables targets for twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thirty last year, they're hitting their EV sales targets for

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<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty five this year. Meanwhile, Nuclear one of Tony

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<v Speaker 1>Blair's institutes pillars of decarbonization. They haven't hit their twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty targets yet. They're likely to hit the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>targets this year, and their twenty twenty five targets are

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<v Speaker 1>two percent of capacity. They're not going to hit that

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<v Speaker 1>two percent of electrical generation capacity. Meanwhile, they're fifty percent

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<v Speaker 1>of electrical generation capacity for renewables and coal is in decline.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is a proof point for the future. And

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<v Speaker 1>apparently Tony Blair Institute and the person who's responsible for

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<v Speaker 1>energy and decarbonateation isn't paying attention.

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<v Speaker 2>Why not, Well, they are a lobbying organization. So that

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<v Speaker 2>tells you something, right, So follow the money.

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<v Speaker 3>When you google. So Tony Blancy to TBI when you

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<v Speaker 3>google the sentence, what does TBI stands for? And the

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<v Speaker 3>answer from Google is traumatic brain injury. That says it all.

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<v Speaker 1>On that note, Paul Martin, Friend of the show, he's

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<v Speaker 1>got a meme saying stop paying attention to old guys.

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<v Speaker 1>And I look at the news coming out about Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Biden and how his handlers were preventing people from realizing

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<v Speaker 1>how much in decline he was. And now Tony Blair

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<v Speaker 1>kind of in a similar demographic. I would say Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>has mostly declined into a me too quiet place more

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<v Speaker 1>than Tony Blair. And it's probably a good thing. But

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<v Speaker 1>I hope that somebody takes me aside when I get

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<v Speaker 1>into that demographic and says, Mike, it's time for you

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<v Speaker 1>to hang up your keyboard.

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<v Speaker 2>Definitely say that to you might don't worry, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, or like, okay, guys, My last words are

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<v Speaker 2>carbon capture is state capture.

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<v Speaker 3>That's as simple as it is. And you're absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 3>Either they're stupid than old, or they crepeat, or they

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<v Speaker 3>are hide guns, and frankly they at best it's significant

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<v Speaker 3>and at worst it's nefarious. That's my conclusion on the

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<v Speaker 3>Tony bar report. And even that technology that which has

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<v Speaker 3>no future said well, I said.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, My last words are everybody ignored Tony Blair, look

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<v Speaker 1>at China's emissions being in decline.

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<v Speaker 3>Gentlemen, Thank you very much, and I hope you were

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<v Speaker 3>not too hard on certain people. But you know that's

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<v Speaker 3>we do it here. We just with the Mavericks exactly cheers.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much, thank you always a pleasure.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 1>or the platform of your choice.