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<v Speaker 1>We've got Box thirty one's Dave Frasier on the phone lines.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon.

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<v Speaker 3>Hope you enjoying it.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what good afternoon it is. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>where you mail ordered this weather from, but it is

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<v Speaker 1>a okay with me. How much longer do we get

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<v Speaker 1>to enjoy it?

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<v Speaker 3>Two more days?

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<v Speaker 2>Two more days?

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<v Speaker 3>See day Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to remind people, if you're out and

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<v Speaker 1>about today, take a good glance at these snow capped mountains.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm not saying the mountains are ugly during the summer,

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<v Speaker 1>but aren't they so much prettier when they've got snow

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<v Speaker 1>sitting on the top of them like they do today.

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<v Speaker 1>I made a note of that this morning when I

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<v Speaker 1>was driving in and I was like, dang, they're pretty.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to remind people to take a minute and

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<v Speaker 1>just appreciate the beauty of the front range if you

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<v Speaker 1>have the opportunity.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it's definitely a chamber of commerce picture. There's

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<v Speaker 3>no question about that. Blue sky's overhead, white capped mountains.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it'd be great if we were a little

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<v Speaker 3>deeper in the spring and everything down here and already

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<v Speaker 3>greened up and blossomed out. But just looking at those

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<v Speaker 3>mountains too, you'll notice it's deep snow. You can tell

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<v Speaker 3>with your deep snow. And so for the Front Range,

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<v Speaker 3>while other parts of the state are struggling for their

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<v Speaker 3>water supply, we're still looking pretty good. Even though it

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<v Speaker 3>has been a dry March. There's no question about that.

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<v Speaker 3>And I was just sitting here crunching all the numbers

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<v Speaker 3>for March. As we get close to the end of

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<v Speaker 3>the month, we're definitely going to get into the record books.

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<v Speaker 3>The question is where, So what are.

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<v Speaker 1>We looking at in the parts of the state that

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<v Speaker 1>are not snow packed properly? What are what kind of

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<v Speaker 1>levels are we seeing and what does that mean?

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<v Speaker 3>So it just has to go with the water supply.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we have eight river basins where the mountains

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<v Speaker 3>feed into those basins, and so the southern and southwestern

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<v Speaker 3>part of the state are struggling at less than sixty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of normal. You have close to ninety ninety plus

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<v Speaker 3>to the northwest corner, and then the Front Range is

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<v Speaker 3>doing pretty good still in the ninety percent stile. Remember

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<v Speaker 3>we load all the way through early April, so we

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<v Speaker 3>can still add to that and boost those numbers. But

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<v Speaker 3>to be that close to one hundred percent of normal

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<v Speaker 3>is pretty good. And all of that obviously melts off,

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<v Speaker 3>turns into recreations for the rivers, the streams, the creeks, fishing, wrapping,

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<v Speaker 3>and so but more importantly, it fills the reservoirs and

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<v Speaker 3>gives us the water supply should we stay on a

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<v Speaker 3>dry note. And quite frankly, you know the outlook for March.

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<v Speaker 3>I've told you this time and time again. Don't put

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of effort or emphasis on those long range

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<v Speaker 3>models thirty sixty ninety. It can give you a pattern

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<v Speaker 3>kind of a look, but it doesn't tell you anything

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<v Speaker 3>about the day to day. And so you think about

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of months. February, for instance, we had one

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<v Speaker 3>big snowstorm and that was enough to get us through

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<v Speaker 3>the month. March is not delivered. We've had less than

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<v Speaker 3>an inch of snow. We're struggling with only a quarter

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<v Speaker 3>of an inch of moisture. However, one last push this weekend,

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<v Speaker 3>we have a chance Saturday and Sunday to pick up

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<v Speaker 3>some needed moisture. Right now, it looks to be all

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<v Speaker 3>in the form of rain, and it could be up

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<v Speaker 3>to a half an inch and if that's the case,

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<v Speaker 3>that would get us off the driest list for March,

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<v Speaker 3>which would be fantastic. And the timing is perfect, get

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<v Speaker 3>some moisture as things are starting to the you know,

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<v Speaker 3>leaves are thinking about budding out and the grasses trying

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<v Speaker 3>to get you know, become on doormant and green up

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit. So the timing of this weekend's rain

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<v Speaker 3>would be perfect. The question and we have is where's

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<v Speaker 3>that snow line? Because it is still March and it

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<v Speaker 3>can drop down, and so we're watching that closely to

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<v Speaker 3>see if there could be a mix maybe on the

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<v Speaker 3>south and west side of town above six thousand, or

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<v Speaker 3>could it accumulate to a slushy couple of inches. Those

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<v Speaker 3>are the questions we have to answer in the next

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<v Speaker 3>few days. All right.

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<v Speaker 1>I got a question from a text on the Common

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<v Speaker 1>Spirit Heal text line at five sixty six nine Ohero

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<v Speaker 1>question for Dave F. The National Weather Service is reducing

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<v Speaker 1>balloon launches at some sites, including in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.

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<v Speaker 1>How will this impact models as well as human forecasting?

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<v Speaker 1>And I want to add to that question and ask

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<v Speaker 1>what are we using the weather balloons for? It almost

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<v Speaker 1>seems archaic in the time of all these super duper

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<v Speaker 1>Doppler radar seven thousands that we have all over the place.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the weather balloons have instrumentation attached to them as

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<v Speaker 3>they leave the ground and go through the atmosphere, and

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<v Speaker 3>those instruments are taking slices of the atmosphere temperatures, wind

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<v Speaker 3>de point, humidity levels, and all of those factor into

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<v Speaker 3>what the atmosphere looks like. Vertically, that information is plugged

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<v Speaker 3>into computer models to help analyze the atmosphere, and then

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<v Speaker 3>the computer models extrapolate that out to give us what

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<v Speaker 3>we call our guidance. Different computer models have different algorithms

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<v Speaker 3>set into them, and that's why you have variations in forecasts.

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<v Speaker 3>Some computer models will you know, go crazy with certain things,

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<v Speaker 3>others will be a little more restricted, and it's our

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<v Speaker 3>job as meteorologists to look into that. I do you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there is a concern that if we lose too much

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<v Speaker 3>of that valued upper atmosphere data, then it could skew

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<v Speaker 3>the models, giving us, you know, a real headache in

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<v Speaker 3>trying to interpret what might be happening in the future,

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<v Speaker 3>predicting you know, the forecast, so to speak. It's not

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<v Speaker 3>a crisis right now, what we're watching closely in we're

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<v Speaker 3>in partnership, and I talk with our friends up in

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<v Speaker 3>Boulder at the National Weather Service is where they may

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<v Speaker 3>make cuts, what jobs may be eliminated, and does that

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<v Speaker 3>have anything to do with public safety. That's my concern,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I don't want I want the forecast to

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<v Speaker 3>be as accurate as possible, and that's why I spend

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<v Speaker 3>hours digging through model data and details and looking at

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<v Speaker 3>as much as I can. You could, literally, Mandy, spend

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<v Speaker 3>eight hours looking at the variations and models and the details,

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<v Speaker 3>finite details, and never get a forecast complete. At some

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<v Speaker 3>point you have to make a decision right and move on.

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<v Speaker 3>And so, you know, I spend as much time as

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<v Speaker 3>I can, and then I'll tweak it, don't I don't

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<v Speaker 3>just throw it down on paper and walk away. I'll

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<v Speaker 3>throw it down on paper and go back and look

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<v Speaker 3>at it and updated with new model data. But again,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not terribly concerned at this juncture about those weather

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<v Speaker 3>balloons and the data. But I am concerned if the

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<v Speaker 3>National Weather Service loses frontline people who may be doing

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<v Speaker 3>nothing more than watching radar closely to determine if the

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<v Speaker 3>storm is going to hail. If it's got lightning, could

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<v Speaker 3>have produced a tornado and not getting those warnings out.

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<v Speaker 3>By the way, we can see that same data with

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<v Speaker 3>our set, but they are the governing body responsible for

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<v Speaker 3>alerting the public to those dangers.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me ask one.

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<v Speaker 1>More question, and we only have a couple of minutes

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<v Speaker 1>left here, but it's a question I have and this

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<v Speaker 1>one said Mandy. I saw the closed cloud formation the

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<v Speaker 1>other day. It was like a stack of pancakes. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's called lenticular Can you ask Dave what causes that?

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<v Speaker 1>And is that something that happens mostly in Colorado And

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to be from the east coast. I had

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<v Speaker 1>never seen those until I was I got here.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so it is. It is just that lenticula. Think

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<v Speaker 3>about the curve of a lens, like a like a

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<v Speaker 3>you know, your glasses or a contact lens. And what

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<v Speaker 3>happens is the wind flow comes out of the west

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<v Speaker 3>over the mountains, and as it curls up and over

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<v Speaker 3>the peaks, if there's just the right amount of moisture

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<v Speaker 3>as it's curving, it condenses that moisture into a cloud

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<v Speaker 3>because it's lifting it over the peak, and so you

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<v Speaker 3>get these flying saucer or lenticular looking clouds, and if

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<v Speaker 3>the wind is strong enough, you can get them in.

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<v Speaker 3>Like your listener asked, it can look like pancakes. So

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<v Speaker 3>you could have one of the lower elevation one a

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<v Speaker 3>little higher. They could be dotted down the entire Front

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<v Speaker 3>Range mountains, and they are one of the coolest cloud

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<v Speaker 3>formations when they happen. And yes, you're right, those of

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<v Speaker 3>us from the east who grew up there, you got

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<v Speaker 3>to come west to be able to see that beauty?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that because like the Smoky mountains aren't high enough

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<v Speaker 1>or they're not rocky like our mountains are. They're tree

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<v Speaker 1>covered for the most part, or any amount of humidity.

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<v Speaker 2>Why does it only happen here?

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<v Speaker 3>What?

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<v Speaker 1>So you need a mountain, I'm guessing, and you need

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<v Speaker 1>that upslope wind.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, it's the height of our mountains.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, you know, okay, you know.

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<v Speaker 3>This is This is fine, this is I couldn't believe

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<v Speaker 3>the statistic one I heard years and years and years ago.

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<v Speaker 3>So our mountains, as we know, we have peaks that

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<v Speaker 3>reached thirteen fourteen thousand feet in the atmosphere are fourteen ers. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>do you know that the tallest mountain from base to

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<v Speaker 3>the top. You know where it is, isn't it?

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<v Speaker 2>Isn't it one of the Hawaiian islands.

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<v Speaker 3>No, it's actually I'm pretty sure it's Mount Washington in

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<v Speaker 3>New Hampshire. What so, Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'll I'll

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<v Speaker 3>double check, but I'm almost positive it's Mount Washington in

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<v Speaker 3>New Hampshire. And so it's the face of the mountain

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<v Speaker 3>is more than six thousand feet tall. Where our mountains

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<v Speaker 3>slope up, you go up the footage right right, ten thousand,

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<v Speaker 3>you go up to eleven thousand. You know, you start

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<v Speaker 3>skiing and you go up, so you think about it.

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<v Speaker 3>You're you know, the base of the mountains are not

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<v Speaker 3>all the way down to the ground. They're they're already

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<v Speaker 3>elevated as you climb up to those fourteen ers.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, I got it.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's its height versus tall.

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<v Speaker 2>Got it? I understand?

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<v Speaker 3>Dave.

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<v Speaker 2>One last text, Yeah it does.

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<v Speaker 1>Before I let you go, Dave makes a sound that

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<v Speaker 1>sound like forecasting the weather is a science rather than

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<v Speaker 1>looking outside to.

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<v Speaker 2>See if the rock is wet or dry.

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<v Speaker 1>If only it was just the rock is wet or dry,

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<v Speaker 1>that would be it. Dave Fraser, we appreciate you. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk to again next week, my friend.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, keep an eye on your rock and enjoy

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<v Speaker 3>the next couple of days, all right, Thanks Dave, That

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<v Speaker 3>is Dave Fraser.