WEBVTT 1 00:00:32.200 --> 00:00:35.039 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander, an 2 00:00:35.079 --> 00:00:38.359 Eagle one from Eagle Speak at seer Shure your home 3 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:41.119 for a discussion of netview issues and all things maritime. 4 00:00:42.079 --> 00:00:45.200 And good day everybody. Glad to have you aboard. If 5 00:00:45.200 --> 00:00:47.960 you are with us Live, I would like to invite 6 00:00:48.039 --> 00:00:50.880 you to go ahead and find the chat room there 7 00:00:50.920 --> 00:00:54.359 on the riverside app. I will be monitoring that during 8 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:56.119 the course of the show. And if you have an 9 00:00:56.159 --> 00:00:59.039 observation you want to share our question you would like 10 00:00:59.079 --> 00:01:01.479 for us to ask our guest during the course of 11 00:01:01.520 --> 00:01:03.960 their visit, that's the perfect place to do it. We'll 12 00:01:04.000 --> 00:01:06.239 be more than happy to pull up your good questions 13 00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:09.200 and roll it into the conversation. And as always, if 14 00:01:09.239 --> 00:01:10.879 you've got to head off and take care of some 15 00:01:10.920 --> 00:01:12.480 stuff and you want to catch up on what you 16 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:15.319 miss or if you're new to mid Rats, if you 17 00:01:15.319 --> 00:01:19.439 don't already, go over it up to iTunes, Spreaker, Spotify, 18 00:01:19.560 --> 00:01:22.480 wherever you aggregate your podcasts. Look us up, find us, 19 00:01:22.799 --> 00:01:26.040 go ahead and subscribe that way. If next show you 20 00:01:26.079 --> 00:01:28.239 can't join us live, we'll be there waiting for you 21 00:01:28.599 --> 00:01:32.319 on the podcast when you have a chance. And enough 22 00:01:32.319 --> 00:01:34.439 of that, let's go ahead and dive into today's show 23 00:01:34.599 --> 00:01:37.159 and springtimes in the air and so, like all right 24 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:40.599 minded people at least, we think it's a great time 25 00:01:40.920 --> 00:01:45.200 to discuss the latest developments with NATO's maritime North with 26 00:01:45.359 --> 00:01:49.400 the absolute great returning guest. It's been too long since 27 00:01:49.400 --> 00:01:53.680 we had in bat Doctor Sebastian Bruin's senior researcher at 28 00:01:53.719 --> 00:01:58.799 the Institute for Security Policy at Keel University. Sebastian, welcome 29 00:01:58.799 --> 00:01:59.599 back to Midrats. 30 00:01:59.640 --> 00:02:01.439 Thank you so much, thanks for having me. It's great 31 00:02:01.439 --> 00:02:02.400 to be back on mid Rats. 32 00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:06.280 Well, we really appreciate you taking time from across the 33 00:02:06.439 --> 00:02:10.080 narrow Atlantic as before you even joined the pre show, 34 00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:12.919 Mark and I were talking about that. We were talking 35 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:16.240 about the Pacific so much we had forgotten. Yeah, it's 36 00:02:16.479 --> 00:02:19.039 people always telling the Pacific about how big the Pacific 37 00:02:19.199 --> 00:02:21.120 is and how big the ranges are. If you do 38 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:24.599 that too much, when you refocus your mind to the 39 00:02:24.639 --> 00:02:28.240 North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic you realize 40 00:02:28.439 --> 00:02:32.639 how tight the distances are in everything else. But here 41 00:02:32.680 --> 00:02:35.639 we are approaching mid April and you're over there in Keel, 42 00:02:35.680 --> 00:02:38.039 which is a beautiful time after a long winter in 43 00:02:38.080 --> 00:02:40.680 northern Germany. How is the view from Keel today. 44 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:46.680 Well spring is truly in the air here and it's well, 45 00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:49.479 it's interesting times. But I guess that's what's You know 46 00:02:49.520 --> 00:02:52.439 that the provoc promised us interesting times, I'm not sure 47 00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:55.800 it was meant to be that interesting. We've seen a 48 00:02:55.800 --> 00:03:00.520 lot of activity in the Baltic Sea, lots of undersea 49 00:03:00.560 --> 00:03:06.039 infrastructure that was destroyed or tampered with by well, uh, 50 00:03:06.240 --> 00:03:10.439 a shadow fleet of you know, vessels that are linked 51 00:03:10.520 --> 00:03:14.159 to Russia. And so there's a lot of activity also 52 00:03:14.360 --> 00:03:18.520 on on Germany's and Denmarks and Swedeness and Finland's and 53 00:03:18.560 --> 00:03:22.319 the Baltic States and Poland's part to try to deter 54 00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:26.919 further attacks on the critical infrastructure and uh, well to 55 00:03:26.960 --> 00:03:29.960 deter Russia as a whole. And so a lot of 56 00:03:29.960 --> 00:03:32.319 things are going on, lots of uh, lots of things 57 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:34.319 to do, which is which is great in many ways, 58 00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:37.479 but also raises questions in many more aspects. And I'm 59 00:03:37.479 --> 00:03:40.520 happy to dive into this in the next hour or so. 60 00:03:40.639 --> 00:03:43.680 Yeah, let's let's talk a little bit about the response 61 00:03:44.360 --> 00:03:49.360 by the Well first, let'st's we've got we've got NATO forces, 62 00:03:49.439 --> 00:03:54.240 we've got European forces, we've got individual countries, UH, and 63 00:03:54.280 --> 00:03:56.960 there there are nine countries that line the Baltic and 64 00:03:57.039 --> 00:04:00.199 eight of them are NATO countries. Now kind of talk 65 00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:02.759 about how this, how that, what the interplay is between them, 66 00:04:02.960 --> 00:04:05.520 and if you can kind of what the initial response 67 00:04:05.599 --> 00:04:07.520 is to what the Russians appear to be up to 68 00:04:07.879 --> 00:04:11.159 following the uk I'll just make this a catch all question. 69 00:04:11.280 --> 00:04:14.319 Following the beginning to the Ukraine Russian. 70 00:04:14.719 --> 00:04:20.120 I'm glad to we're coming around to the understanding that 71 00:04:21.759 --> 00:04:24.920 the Baltic has been part of this Russian Ukraine war 72 00:04:25.079 --> 00:04:29.680 since twenty fourteen. Mostly. I mean, that's that's the perspective 73 00:04:29.759 --> 00:04:34.399 that you'll that that our eastern neighbors Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, 74 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:37.600 Poland will be sharing happily. And it took some time 75 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:41.920 for UH, for Germans to realize that, given our difficult 76 00:04:42.879 --> 00:04:48.639 relationship and and business deals with with Russia. But you know, 77 00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:52.959 ever since the war escalated more than three years ago 78 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:56.959 with Russia's invasion, full scale invasion of Ukraine and all 79 00:04:56.959 --> 00:05:00.519 the horrible things that that are happening there, the Baltic 80 00:05:00.680 --> 00:05:04.399 is certainly back on the on the agenda of decision makers. 81 00:05:05.560 --> 00:05:09.160 The German Navy actually in twenty fourteen, together with some 82 00:05:09.199 --> 00:05:12.560 of its partners, there were some some you know forums 83 00:05:12.600 --> 00:05:15.639 that were created both as part of NATO but also 84 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:19.079 sort of coalision of the Willing. One example is the 85 00:05:19.079 --> 00:05:21.839 Baltic Commander's Conference. So for the first time actually the 86 00:05:21.839 --> 00:05:25.920 commanders of the navies of the Baltic Sea area, including 87 00:05:25.959 --> 00:05:30.000 Norway of course without Russia, gathered together had a sort 88 00:05:30.000 --> 00:05:33.639 of a formal conference every year with you know, with 89 00:05:33.759 --> 00:05:36.199 workshops and naval drills and all these kind of things 90 00:05:36.360 --> 00:05:39.000 things that navies do. But I you know that that 91 00:05:39.680 --> 00:05:43.439 sort of in the in the era of counter piracy 92 00:05:43.480 --> 00:05:47.120 operations and Mediterranean operations and all these kind of things 93 00:05:47.120 --> 00:05:49.560 that kept us busy in the in the nineties and 94 00:05:49.600 --> 00:05:53.000 two thousands sort of fell over the wayside. So building 95 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:55.759 on that, when twenty twenty two rolled around, and certainly 96 00:05:55.800 --> 00:05:59.759 when the North Stream sabotage happened in September of twenty 97 00:05:59.759 --> 00:06:02.759 twenty to the German Navy and its partners were relatively 98 00:06:02.759 --> 00:06:06.879 well placed with a sort of a revival of the 99 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:10.959 Baltic Sea. That's you know, still with very very small, 100 00:06:11.480 --> 00:06:15.680 two small navies. I'm sure that's no secret to the 101 00:06:15.720 --> 00:06:21.480 listeners of this podcast. But you know, it's also meant 102 00:06:21.759 --> 00:06:26.800 in many ways a return to this very close operating area, 103 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:30.800 the national defense issue of what navies are doing. I'm 104 00:06:30.800 --> 00:06:33.839 not saying, you know, the Navy didn't do the expeditionary 105 00:06:33.839 --> 00:06:36.839 operations of the nineties and the and the counter terrorism 106 00:06:36.920 --> 00:06:40.560 operations of the U of the two thousands. You know, 107 00:06:41.000 --> 00:06:44.680 they did, they performed relatively well. But the Baltic Sea 108 00:06:44.759 --> 00:06:46.920 and the North Sea are of course, you know, that's 109 00:06:46.920 --> 00:06:50.079 where Germany's borders are, and that's where that's NATO territory, 110 00:06:50.120 --> 00:06:54.680 that genuine NATO territory. And I think I believe that 111 00:06:55.040 --> 00:06:59.040 a number of naval leaders and policy leaders, I mean 112 00:06:59.079 --> 00:07:02.040 first naval leaders are educated, you know, with a clear 113 00:07:02.120 --> 00:07:03.920 view of the Baltic That's where they train, that's where 114 00:07:03.959 --> 00:07:07.800 they get usually get their first commissions. The the most 115 00:07:07.920 --> 00:07:10.759 most chiefs of Navy in Germany are actually sort of 116 00:07:10.800 --> 00:07:14.079 born and raised professionally either in the submarine uh but 117 00:07:14.120 --> 00:07:18.519 with you know, driving submarines or mine hunters. They're Baltic 118 00:07:18.600 --> 00:07:22.319 Sea people. And and the same goes for the Chief 119 00:07:22.360 --> 00:07:26.079 of Navy, Admiral Jancock, who was born and he was 120 00:07:26.079 --> 00:07:29.360 was born in kiel Or in Crincitica Colture time rather, 121 00:07:30.120 --> 00:07:34.680 and he grew up commanding for you know, among other things, 122 00:07:34.759 --> 00:07:37.720 a fast patrol boat. So he's a he's he's a 123 00:07:37.879 --> 00:07:39.800 sort of a child of the Cold War. And I'm 124 00:07:39.839 --> 00:07:44.279 saying this to try to illuminate his mindset and that 125 00:07:44.399 --> 00:07:46.600 and many and that mindset of many of his peers 126 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:52.480 that the Baltic Sea is sort of their historical operating area. 127 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:56.639 And and so when twenty twenty two rolled around, uh, 128 00:07:56.680 --> 00:08:00.519 he and other navy leaders were very very keen, and 129 00:08:00.600 --> 00:08:06.040 very enthusiastic and readily available providing their forces to to well, 130 00:08:06.240 --> 00:08:08.560 you know, make a statement, try to try to put 131 00:08:08.600 --> 00:08:11.839 as many ships to see as possible. And a lot 132 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:14.720 of other nations around the Baltic Seed did so as well. 133 00:08:15.680 --> 00:08:19.079 It should be noted that the German Navy is the largest, 134 00:08:19.519 --> 00:08:23.480 uh Baltic Sea navy. And and you know, followed closely 135 00:08:23.519 --> 00:08:25.240 by this by the Swedes and the Finns and now 136 00:08:25.279 --> 00:08:27.399 the Danes. The Swedes and Finns, of course, at the 137 00:08:27.439 --> 00:08:29.560 time were not NATO members. And there you have it. 138 00:08:29.600 --> 00:08:31.480 You know, you have this kind of spaghetti bowl for 139 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:34.600 anyone who's who's ever seen that, uh, that terrible slide 140 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:39.120 of the counter insurgency in Afghanistan. You know you've got 141 00:08:39.639 --> 00:08:43.080 various national uh uh well, you've got the national navies, 142 00:08:43.279 --> 00:08:46.039 you've got the European Union, you've got NATO, you've got 143 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:49.879 coalisions of the Willing, and you have other players in 144 00:08:49.919 --> 00:08:54.360 the Baltic Sea, you know, the Brits, the United States Navy, 145 00:08:55.559 --> 00:08:59.000 the Dutch Navy, who are all mixing and mingling in 146 00:08:59.039 --> 00:09:02.159 this in this very confined and very very shallow body 147 00:09:02.200 --> 00:09:07.679 of water. And when the we had another escalation of 148 00:09:08.000 --> 00:09:13.799 uh well, fiddling with with undersea critical undersea infrastructure, so cables, pipelines, 149 00:09:15.080 --> 00:09:18.080 lots of intelligence gathering ships that we see going around 150 00:09:18.440 --> 00:09:21.000 wind farms, offshore wind farms that we are we're so 151 00:09:21.039 --> 00:09:24.919 happy about in Europe. So a lot of this is 152 00:09:24.919 --> 00:09:27.519 is now even home. The threat picture that the Baltic 153 00:09:27.600 --> 00:09:30.559 Sea is is a theater. It is it truly is 154 00:09:30.559 --> 00:09:35.879 a theater of this this well renewed Cold war, not 155 00:09:35.879 --> 00:09:38.559 not quite peace anymore. We're not not at full scale 156 00:09:38.600 --> 00:09:42.720 war obviously, and so there's a lot of naval activity 157 00:09:42.759 --> 00:09:46.200 now in the Baltic Sea, together with partners. There's also 158 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:50.440 been a the establishment of the Commander Task Force Baltic 159 00:09:50.679 --> 00:09:55.480 a new national headquarter, German Navy headquarter that works for NATO, 160 00:09:56.440 --> 00:09:59.120 and the idea is that maritime domain awareness needs to 161 00:09:59.120 --> 00:10:03.159 be updated and up graded. And yeah, so this is 162 00:10:03.159 --> 00:10:04.120 where we stand right now. 163 00:10:04.159 --> 00:10:07.960 Earlier today, I ran into a map of the Baltic. 164 00:10:08.720 --> 00:10:14.799 I always feel that a lot of our conceptions are misconceptions. 165 00:10:14.799 --> 00:10:17.360 Is simply because we're always looking at a north up 166 00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:20.960 map from a certain perspective. That this map was of 167 00:10:21.000 --> 00:10:25.000 the Baltic, but it's west up, so at the bottom 168 00:10:25.159 --> 00:10:29.159 you have Saint Petersburg and the Baltic republics in Finland. 169 00:10:29.200 --> 00:10:31.519 At the bottom you have that huge mass of Sweden 170 00:10:31.919 --> 00:10:35.080 sitting up there. And it really does emphasize especially with 171 00:10:35.480 --> 00:10:40.399 Finland and Sweden officially inside of NATO lifelines. But twenty 172 00:10:40.480 --> 00:10:43.559 years ago we had thinn and Swedes and NATO headquarters 173 00:10:43.639 --> 00:10:47.519 in the Partnership for Partnership for Peace plan, so all 174 00:10:47.519 --> 00:10:49.159 they had to do was change their name tag. So 175 00:10:49.440 --> 00:10:52.080 we had already historically worked a lot with them. But 176 00:10:52.159 --> 00:10:56.120 it does emphasize the fact that the old joke of 177 00:10:56.399 --> 00:11:00.200 the Baltic being a quote NATO lake is absolutely true now. 178 00:11:00.360 --> 00:11:03.679 But I think what's also helpful is I don't know 179 00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:05.799 if you share this frustration, but I've always shared this 180 00:11:05.840 --> 00:11:09.600 frustration is people talk about Baltic security if they're not 181 00:11:09.840 --> 00:11:12.919 familiar with the area too much. They'll think the Baltic 182 00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:18.360 republics in Scandinavia forgetting that Poland and Germany are one 183 00:11:18.440 --> 00:11:23.720 hundred percent Baltic nations and are critical. And especially Denmark, 184 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:27.720 Germany and Sweden. Norway they owned the gate to the 185 00:11:27.759 --> 00:11:30.120 Baltic if you look at it for when you need 186 00:11:30.159 --> 00:11:33.080 to come in and out, and it has been amazing though. 187 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:36.840 Even though the Russians controlled just a little bit of 188 00:11:36.919 --> 00:11:43.639 shoreline and the Kaliningrad and also in Saint Petersburg in 189 00:11:43.679 --> 00:11:48.080 the last few years since Nordstream two went bubbly, the 190 00:11:48.159 --> 00:11:51.720 Russians are still able to produce a lot of havoc 191 00:11:53.519 --> 00:11:56.120 officially or unofficially, not just in the Baltic but also 192 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:59.840 up in the North Sea. That led NATO to create 193 00:12:00.759 --> 00:12:05.639 an interesting new command that is focused on securing though 194 00:12:06.279 --> 00:12:11.399 the undersea infrastructure that whether you're talking about Norwegian hydrocarbons, 195 00:12:11.799 --> 00:12:16.639 are being able to get Internet connectivity between Finland and Estonia. 196 00:12:16.879 --> 00:12:19.600 It's really been an interesting development that I think has 197 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:22.840 been a tap on the shoulder for NATO that there 198 00:12:22.919 --> 00:12:26.440 are other parts inside our alliance that we need to 199 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:31.039 be pay special attention to should things get nasty sooner 200 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:31.919 or later. Yeah. 201 00:12:31.919 --> 00:12:35.799 No, I mean you're right about one thing. Is well, 202 00:12:35.840 --> 00:12:39.039 you're right about many things. But you know what you 203 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:42.120 mentioned is is clearly you know, I mean people need 204 00:12:42.159 --> 00:12:46.799 to understand that the Baltic Is has such a rich history. 205 00:12:46.840 --> 00:12:49.159 You know, it goes back to the Hanseatic League, you know, 206 00:12:49.279 --> 00:12:53.879 first naval power coalition really coalition of the willing, and 207 00:12:53.919 --> 00:12:57.440 they built warships to God to guard the trade that 208 00:12:57.480 --> 00:13:01.279 they these early republics, early state in the Middle Ages 209 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:04.840 would it would facilitate with one another. And of course 210 00:13:04.840 --> 00:13:06.840 there's been lots of wars, but there's also been lots 211 00:13:06.879 --> 00:13:09.440 of cultural exchanges, and the Baltic Sea has always been 212 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:16.159 about exchange and trade. And I think that's why Europeans 213 00:13:16.840 --> 00:13:21.879 were sort of lured into this false understanding after after 214 00:13:21.960 --> 00:13:24.039 the Cold War. Of course, in the Cold Wars it 215 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:26.559 was also it was right on the front line, you know, 216 00:13:26.600 --> 00:13:29.000 the West German Navy in the East German Navy uh 217 00:13:29.519 --> 00:13:33.200 met on a daily basically literally and and and if 218 00:13:33.200 --> 00:13:36.759 the balloon had gotten gone up entirely, the Baltic Sea 219 00:13:36.759 --> 00:13:38.360 would have been the site of a of a massive, 220 00:13:38.480 --> 00:13:44.639 massive Soviet red fleet amphibious assault against against NATO, Denmark 221 00:13:44.679 --> 00:13:49.960 and northern Germany. Uh. More precisely, when the Cold War 222 00:13:50.000 --> 00:13:53.919 went away, there was so much enthusiasm, I mean, coupled 223 00:13:53.919 --> 00:13:56.480 with all these other problems that sprung up around the world, 224 00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:59.720 but the Baltic Sea trill truly became in the minds 225 00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:03.399 of many see a sea of peace. Right, everyone was 226 00:14:03.399 --> 00:14:07.440 was a friend. Now everyone could be integrated. And and 227 00:14:08.639 --> 00:14:10.840 I think that's that's the sort of the false narrative 228 00:14:10.919 --> 00:14:15.120 that uh that that too many people, including decision makers 229 00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:17.840 in my country, hung on for for way too long, 230 00:14:18.879 --> 00:14:22.000 sort of seeing something in the other side, uh and 231 00:14:22.360 --> 00:14:26.759 more precisely Russia that simply wasn't there. And in the 232 00:14:26.799 --> 00:14:33.159 meantime sort of going over the concerns, very real concerns 233 00:14:33.399 --> 00:14:38.120 by the Baltic States, by Poland, by Finland in favor 234 00:14:38.200 --> 00:14:43.720 of our own economic forcecomings. So so you know, I 235 00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:47.039 think this is important to understand how how you know, 236 00:14:47.080 --> 00:14:50.399 the Baltic Sea is not simply this this this confined 237 00:14:50.799 --> 00:14:54.600 body of water and and uh, you know, can be disregarded. 238 00:14:54.759 --> 00:14:58.480 It actually is one of the one of the true 239 00:14:58.519 --> 00:15:02.720 hearts of European culture in European history. And it just 240 00:15:02.759 --> 00:15:05.960 takes takes some time for for for us to to 241 00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:10.200 realize this new threat environment which is different from the 242 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:11.960 Cold War. You know, this is this is no longer 243 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:14.799 the threat environment. And and as we sort of graduate 244 00:15:14.840 --> 00:15:17.279 from the Baltic Sea to other areas, the North Sea 245 00:15:17.320 --> 00:15:19.480 and and so on, you know, we can no longer 246 00:15:19.639 --> 00:15:22.919 as as strategists, as naval lists, we can no longer 247 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:26.080 limit ourselves to ship counting. Yes, quantity has a quality 248 00:15:26.080 --> 00:15:28.919 of its own, but suddenly we have to talk about 249 00:15:29.440 --> 00:15:31.360 sea cables, we have to talk about wind firms, We 250 00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:34.879 have to talk about railroad railroads in Sweden and Norway 251 00:15:35.080 --> 00:15:40.759 for to get forces into the theater if we need to, 252 00:15:41.879 --> 00:15:44.120 and suddenly we are we need to be experts on 253 00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:47.159 missile ranges and all these kinds of things, land based 254 00:15:47.200 --> 00:15:47.799 missile ranges. 255 00:15:47.840 --> 00:15:48.279 That is. 256 00:15:49.720 --> 00:15:52.519 That, you know, sort of defy the old how many 257 00:15:52.559 --> 00:15:54.039 ships do you have and how many how many ships 258 00:15:54.039 --> 00:15:57.559 does the other side have narrative. I will push back 259 00:15:57.639 --> 00:16:00.759 Cell on one thing, and I'm always really excited to 260 00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:03.080 do it. I just simply don't like the term of 261 00:16:03.080 --> 00:16:06.519 the NATO Lake. And I've written about this so so 262 00:16:06.559 --> 00:16:10.720 I'm on record for that. It's I understand that you 263 00:16:10.759 --> 00:16:12.639 know where this is coming from, and there's a lot 264 00:16:12.639 --> 00:16:16.519 of enthusiasm, and I get that from Finland and Sweden 265 00:16:16.559 --> 00:16:18.639 as well. They're very happy to join the alliance. And 266 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:20.960 of course you're right, it was a small step for them. 267 00:16:21.000 --> 00:16:26.279 They were as closely personally integrated but associated as a 268 00:16:26.279 --> 00:16:30.120 as any non member could ever be. And well, it 269 00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:33.320 took some time for for them to formally join NATO. 270 00:16:34.360 --> 00:16:36.399 You know, the decision was was was hands on, it 271 00:16:36.440 --> 00:16:38.759 was wasn't even close in the in the two countries 272 00:16:39.080 --> 00:16:42.799 whether they should join after February twenty twenty two. My 273 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:46.679 problem with with the term is that it might be 274 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:51.399 another self delusion in that we simply dust our hands 275 00:16:51.440 --> 00:16:52.879 off and say, oh, this is a NATO lake now 276 00:16:52.879 --> 00:16:55.159 we have don't have to worry about anything else. NATO 277 00:16:55.279 --> 00:16:59.720 rules the seas, NATO rules rules the Baltic and you know, 278 00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:04.559 my first my first point here is I've I've heard 279 00:17:04.640 --> 00:17:07.319 that record before. You know, when you look into some 280 00:17:07.440 --> 00:17:11.400 of the literature on the Cold War, the Mediterranean at 281 00:17:11.400 --> 00:17:15.200 some point was a NATO lake. After the establishment, the 282 00:17:15.200 --> 00:17:18.039 creation of U. S. Six fleet, well until at some 283 00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:21.079 point the Soviets showed up. And there's other there's other 284 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:23.920 literature out. The first German Chief of Navy in the 285 00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:27.680 nineteen fifties declared the North Atlantic a NATO lake, well 286 00:17:27.839 --> 00:17:30.640 until the Russians showed up or the Soviets showed up 287 00:17:30.640 --> 00:17:35.200 in in numbers, and and so you know, be careful 288 00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:37.799 of this of this world. I want to be careful 289 00:17:38.319 --> 00:17:42.680 of a sort of a reverse self fulfilling prophecy here 290 00:17:42.920 --> 00:17:45.160 in that the Baltic will be a NATO lake until 291 00:17:45.240 --> 00:17:48.480 suddenly it isn't. And the other is sort of the 292 00:17:48.519 --> 00:17:50.839 other problem I have. The other challenge I will I 293 00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:55.119 will raise is you know what if at some point 294 00:17:55.160 --> 00:17:58.519 the Chinese declared the South China See a China lake, 295 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:05.000 citing the very very same statements that we've in the West. Uh, 296 00:18:05.039 --> 00:18:07.160 you know, we've we've pat we've we've patted ourselves on 297 00:18:07.160 --> 00:18:10.119 the shoulders and said, you know, this is a NATO lake. 298 00:18:10.599 --> 00:18:13.559 What kind of implications does it have globally that we 299 00:18:14.000 --> 00:18:18.240 should perhaps take into consideration. So you know that this 300 00:18:18.279 --> 00:18:21.720 would be sort of my my, my, my counterpoints. I'm 301 00:18:21.799 --> 00:18:26.240 all for NATO expansion and and deeper integration, and and 302 00:18:26.319 --> 00:18:28.119 but I also want to make a third point, since 303 00:18:28.279 --> 00:18:31.240 this is a conversation of two American gentlemen and a German, 304 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:35.000 and and in our times where we are sort of reassessing, 305 00:18:36.440 --> 00:18:41.319 you know, our our transatlantic relationship, I wonder if the 306 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:45.119 term NATO lake will lead to some policy makers in 307 00:18:45.119 --> 00:18:47.559 the United States dusting off there and saying, Okay, well, 308 00:18:47.559 --> 00:18:49.559 it's a NATO lake. We don't have to send any 309 00:18:49.680 --> 00:18:52.359 U S forces even in the case of conflict anymore. 310 00:18:53.319 --> 00:18:55.640 And and that's some that's a narrative. I would you know, 311 00:18:55.880 --> 00:18:58.640 I mean, if it's out there, I would very be 312 00:18:58.759 --> 00:19:01.960 very curious whether either of you have picked up any 313 00:19:02.039 --> 00:19:05.160 any of those sentiments, because I know for a fact 314 00:19:05.240 --> 00:19:08.759 that certainly the Baltic States are very in the Swedes 315 00:19:08.759 --> 00:19:11.720 and the Fins are very interested in having the US 316 00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:16.200 in the Baltic seat at some point or in some capacity, 317 00:19:16.200 --> 00:19:18.680 maybe not with a ship, but certainly with staff and 318 00:19:18.720 --> 00:19:21.960 with sort of the political and political engagement. 319 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:25.359 Well, I only say this partially tongue in cheek. I 320 00:19:25.359 --> 00:19:28.000 think there are too many sailors that have had great 321 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:31.440 liberty experiences during ball tops. So probably the best thing 322 00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:35.880 NEO could do is just just keep the Navy invited 323 00:19:35.920 --> 00:19:38.799 inactive at ball tops with good liberty ports. And I 324 00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:41.839 don't think the US Navy will go anywhere over to you, Mark. 325 00:19:41.799 --> 00:19:45.559 Yeah, you have to take some of the things that 326 00:19:45.599 --> 00:19:47.160 are going on with NATO. This is my view of 327 00:19:47.200 --> 00:19:50.279 the politics involved here. You know, if the NATO countries 328 00:19:51.839 --> 00:19:55.720 boost their share of the load, as it's saying, goes 329 00:19:55.759 --> 00:20:00.279 in the US and start really taking things seriously, which well, 330 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:03.119 you know, I think it's happening now. Uh, then I 331 00:20:03.160 --> 00:20:06.039 think that that whole issue of NATO being something the 332 00:20:06.200 --> 00:20:08.519 US wants to bail out of is going to go away. 333 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:09.119 You know. 334 00:20:09.160 --> 00:20:11.319 I think it's been too important to us and too 335 00:20:11.359 --> 00:20:13.920 important to other people around the world that for US 336 00:20:13.960 --> 00:20:16.759 to get out of it. But it's also the appearance 337 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:22.319 of disproportionate burden being placed on the US is is 338 00:20:22.319 --> 00:20:25.440 is causing some some heartburn, and I think most people 339 00:20:25.440 --> 00:20:27.160 would understand that if they take it, if they take 340 00:20:27.160 --> 00:20:29.680 a good look at all that aside. I'm sitting there 341 00:20:29.720 --> 00:20:32.680 looking at at the at the map like sal Is 342 00:20:32.759 --> 00:20:36.000 and I'm thinking, well, you know, the Russian's major port 343 00:20:36.039 --> 00:20:39.799 and the Baltic is Saint Petersburg, and that's a tough 344 00:20:39.839 --> 00:20:43.319 place to go out of if Finland and Estonia and 345 00:20:43.319 --> 00:20:46.359 and Sweden are all going to try and stop them. 346 00:20:46.359 --> 00:20:48.640 And you know, it looks like really easy water to mine. 347 00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:51.559 But then there's the the threat I think you just 348 00:20:51.640 --> 00:20:54.400 hit it, the threat of I understand there's some some 349 00:20:55.160 --> 00:21:02.079 Russian missiles being located in colin Grad and UH, and 350 00:21:02.200 --> 00:21:04.480 that poses you know, depending on the range of those things, 351 00:21:04.519 --> 00:21:07.039 that really does pose an interesting threat to anybody trying 352 00:21:07.079 --> 00:21:11.559 to to transit the Baltic Sea. So talk a little 353 00:21:11.599 --> 00:21:15.519 bit about that. The difficulties of operating in a small 354 00:21:15.680 --> 00:21:18.960 environment when you've got this one little tiny part of 355 00:21:19.039 --> 00:21:22.839 Russia in between Lithuania, UH and Poland, that could cause 356 00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:25.759 some serious issues if they if they are as heavily 357 00:21:25.839 --> 00:21:27.559 armed as I would guess they would like to be. 358 00:21:27.759 --> 00:21:30.920 Yeah, absolutely, And thank you for for raising the cleaning 359 00:21:30.920 --> 00:21:36.680 Grut issue once again. So yeah, you know, maps, maps, maps. 360 00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:41.799 Compared to the Cold War, the Russian strategic geography has 361 00:21:41.880 --> 00:21:45.039 has fundamentally changed for the worst, as you as you 362 00:21:45.160 --> 00:21:48.839 just pointed out, and the cleaning Grot exclave, so this 363 00:21:48.920 --> 00:21:54.039 is the former kun Exparira in Prussia, and this is 364 00:21:54.519 --> 00:21:57.920 the Russians kept the well. When the Soviet Union fell apart, 365 00:21:58.720 --> 00:22:02.759 Russia retained the part most importantly at the time because 366 00:22:02.799 --> 00:22:06.599 it was uh they're one of their naval bases. And 367 00:22:07.079 --> 00:22:09.319 this is the time when in the nineteen nineties when 368 00:22:09.319 --> 00:22:11.279 the Russian navy went didn't go anywhere. 369 00:22:11.720 --> 00:22:11.880 Uh. 370 00:22:11.920 --> 00:22:14.440 It was, it was rusty, it was it was rotting 371 00:22:14.440 --> 00:22:19.480 in port. And the kleaning Grod exclave or enclave rather 372 00:22:20.680 --> 00:22:24.799 is it can only be be reinforced through uh well 373 00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:28.599 coming from the sea from Saint Petersburg or flying all 374 00:22:28.640 --> 00:22:32.039 around the Baltic Sea states, so usually across the Gulf 375 00:22:32.039 --> 00:22:35.200 of Finland and then uh then flying into Cleaning Grod. 376 00:22:36.160 --> 00:22:39.440 And there's a little stretch of land where Lithuania which 377 00:22:39.880 --> 00:22:43.720 borders kleaning Grad to the north, and Poland which borders 378 00:22:44.200 --> 00:22:47.880 kleaning Grad to the south, where they where they meet, 379 00:22:47.920 --> 00:22:51.680 and this is called the Slovak Gap. To anyone who's 380 00:22:51.839 --> 00:22:54.599 familiar of the of the Cold War, this is the 381 00:22:54.640 --> 00:22:57.799 new folda gap. This has been this has been identified 382 00:22:57.839 --> 00:23:02.359 as sort of the the one small corridor where if 383 00:23:02.359 --> 00:23:04.839 push comes to shove, the Russians would try to go 384 00:23:04.960 --> 00:23:08.759 through through through Belarus, which they more or less control 385 00:23:08.839 --> 00:23:11.640 as a proxy state to try to build a land 386 00:23:11.640 --> 00:23:15.119 bridge between the the the between cleaning Grad and the 387 00:23:15.640 --> 00:23:18.960 oblast of the wider area and and the Russian motherland. 388 00:23:20.279 --> 00:23:23.799 In recent years we've seen that there's been a drastic 389 00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:29.160 increase of land based missiles of various types stationed in 390 00:23:29.160 --> 00:23:32.319 in in the kleini Grad area UH. That area has 391 00:23:32.319 --> 00:23:36.079 been heavily militarized, much like in the rest of Russia. 392 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.880 Any civilian opposition, any peace movement to speak of, has 393 00:23:40.880 --> 00:23:45.039 been has been driven out or I suppose killed, or 394 00:23:45.079 --> 00:23:50.240 putting put in the gulag perhaps. And so it's it's 395 00:23:50.599 --> 00:23:53.920 it's been fortified, and it really sits just right across 396 00:23:54.119 --> 00:23:58.039 the bay, the Bay of Gadinya and Gadansk two of 397 00:23:58.039 --> 00:24:01.880 the major Polish UH commercial ports, and Gadinia is also 398 00:24:01.920 --> 00:24:04.920 the home of the Polish navy. So this is very 399 00:24:04.960 --> 00:24:08.480 close and very delicate, very delicate situation, and the Russians 400 00:24:08.480 --> 00:24:12.480 have been able to well, you know, the old saying 401 00:24:12.519 --> 00:24:14.559