Speaker 1: Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander, an
Speaker 1: Eagle one from Eagle Speak at seer Shure your home
Speaker 1: for a discussion of netview issues and all things maritime.
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Speaker 1: of that, let's go ahead and dive into today's show
Speaker 1: and springtimes in the air and so, like all right
Speaker 1: minded people at least, we think it's a great time
Speaker 1: to discuss the latest developments with NATO's maritime North with
Speaker 1: the absolute great returning guest. It's been too long since
Speaker 1: we had in bat Doctor Sebastian Bruin's senior researcher at
Speaker 1: the Institute for Security Policy at Keel University. Sebastian, welcome
Speaker 1: back to Midrats.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, thanks for having me. It's great
Speaker 2: to be back on mid Rats.
Speaker 1: Well, we really appreciate you taking time from across the
Speaker 1: narrow Atlantic as before you even joined the pre show,
Speaker 1: Mark and I were talking about that. We were talking
Speaker 1: about the Pacific so much we had forgotten. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: people always telling the Pacific about how big the Pacific
Speaker 1: is and how big the ranges are. If you do
Speaker 1: that too much, when you refocus your mind to the
Speaker 1: North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic you realize
Speaker 1: how tight the distances are in everything else. But here
Speaker 1: we are approaching mid April and you're over there in Keel,
Speaker 1: which is a beautiful time after a long winter in
Speaker 1: northern Germany. How is the view from Keel today.
Speaker 2: Well spring is truly in the air here and it's well,
Speaker 2: it's interesting times. But I guess that's what's You know
Speaker 2: that the provoc promised us interesting times, I'm not sure
Speaker 2: it was meant to be that interesting. We've seen a
Speaker 2: lot of activity in the Baltic Sea, lots of undersea
Speaker 2: infrastructure that was destroyed or tampered with by well, uh,
Speaker 2: a shadow fleet of you know, vessels that are linked
Speaker 2: to Russia. And so there's a lot of activity also
Speaker 2: on on Germany's and Denmarks and Swedeness and Finland's and
Speaker 2: the Baltic States and Poland's part to try to deter
Speaker 2: further attacks on the critical infrastructure and uh, well to
Speaker 2: deter Russia as a whole. And so a lot of
Speaker 2: things are going on, lots of uh, lots of things
Speaker 2: to do, which is which is great in many ways,
Speaker 2: but also raises questions in many more aspects. And I'm
Speaker 2: happy to dive into this in the next hour or so.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's let's talk a little bit about the response
Speaker 3: by the Well first, let'st's we've got we've got NATO forces,
Speaker 3: we've got European forces, we've got individual countries, UH, and
Speaker 3: there there are nine countries that line the Baltic and
Speaker 3: eight of them are NATO countries. Now kind of talk
Speaker 3: about how this, how that, what the interplay is between them,
Speaker 3: and if you can kind of what the initial response
Speaker 3: is to what the Russians appear to be up to
Speaker 3: following the uk I'll just make this a catch all question.
Speaker 3: Following the beginning to the Ukraine Russian.
Speaker 2: I'm glad to we're coming around to the understanding that
Speaker 2: the Baltic has been part of this Russian Ukraine war
Speaker 2: since twenty fourteen. Mostly. I mean, that's that's the perspective
Speaker 2: that you'll that that our eastern neighbors Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia,
Speaker 2: Poland will be sharing happily. And it took some time
Speaker 2: for UH, for Germans to realize that, given our difficult
Speaker 2: relationship and and business deals with with Russia. But you know,
Speaker 2: ever since the war escalated more than three years ago
Speaker 2: with Russia's invasion, full scale invasion of Ukraine and all
Speaker 2: the horrible things that that are happening there, the Baltic
Speaker 2: is certainly back on the on the agenda of decision makers.
Speaker 2: The German Navy actually in twenty fourteen, together with some
Speaker 2: of its partners, there were some some you know forums
Speaker 2: that were created both as part of NATO but also
Speaker 2: sort of coalision of the Willing. One example is the
Speaker 2: Baltic Commander's Conference. So for the first time actually the
Speaker 2: commanders of the navies of the Baltic Sea area, including
Speaker 2: Norway of course without Russia, gathered together had a sort
Speaker 2: of a formal conference every year with you know, with
Speaker 2: workshops and naval drills and all these kind of things
Speaker 2: things that navies do. But I you know that that
Speaker 2: sort of in the in the era of counter piracy
Speaker 2: operations and Mediterranean operations and all these kind of things
Speaker 2: that kept us busy in the in the nineties and
Speaker 2: two thousands sort of fell over the wayside. So building
Speaker 2: on that, when twenty twenty two rolled around, and certainly
Speaker 2: when the North Stream sabotage happened in September of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty to the German Navy and its partners were relatively
Speaker 2: well placed with a sort of a revival of the
Speaker 2: Baltic Sea. That's you know, still with very very small,
Speaker 2: two small navies. I'm sure that's no secret to the
Speaker 2: listeners of this podcast. But you know, it's also meant
Speaker 2: in many ways a return to this very close operating area,
Speaker 2: the national defense issue of what navies are doing. I'm
Speaker 2: not saying, you know, the Navy didn't do the expeditionary
Speaker 2: operations of the nineties and the and the counter terrorism
Speaker 2: operations of the U of the two thousands. You know,
Speaker 2: they did, they performed relatively well. But the Baltic Sea
Speaker 2: and the North Sea are of course, you know, that's
Speaker 2: where Germany's borders are, and that's where that's NATO territory,
Speaker 2: that genuine NATO territory. And I think I believe that
Speaker 2: a number of naval leaders and policy leaders, I mean
Speaker 2: first naval leaders are educated, you know, with a clear
Speaker 2: view of the Baltic That's where they train, that's where
Speaker 2: they get usually get their first commissions. The the most
Speaker 2: most chiefs of Navy in Germany are actually sort of
Speaker 2: born and raised professionally either in the submarine uh but
Speaker 2: with you know, driving submarines or mine hunters. They're Baltic
Speaker 2: Sea people. And and the same goes for the Chief
Speaker 2: of Navy, Admiral Jancock, who was born and he was
Speaker 2: was born in kiel Or in Crincitica Colture time rather,
Speaker 2: and he grew up commanding for you know, among other things,
Speaker 2: a fast patrol boat. So he's a he's he's a
Speaker 2: sort of a child of the Cold War. And I'm
Speaker 2: saying this to try to illuminate his mindset and that
Speaker 2: and many and that mindset of many of his peers
Speaker 2: that the Baltic Sea is sort of their historical operating area.
Speaker 2: And and so when twenty twenty two rolled around, uh,
Speaker 2: he and other navy leaders were very very keen, and
Speaker 2: very enthusiastic and readily available providing their forces to to well,
Speaker 2: you know, make a statement, try to try to put
Speaker 2: as many ships to see as possible. And a lot
Speaker 2: of other nations around the Baltic Seed did so as well.
Speaker 2: It should be noted that the German Navy is the largest,
Speaker 2: uh Baltic Sea navy. And and you know, followed closely
Speaker 2: by this by the Swedes and the Finns and now
Speaker 2: the Danes. The Swedes and Finns, of course, at the
Speaker 2: time were not NATO members. And there you have it.
Speaker 2: You know, you have this kind of spaghetti bowl for
Speaker 2: anyone who's who's ever seen that, uh, that terrible slide
Speaker 2: of the counter insurgency in Afghanistan. You know you've got
Speaker 2: various national uh uh well, you've got the national navies,
Speaker 2: you've got the European Union, you've got NATO, you've got
Speaker 2: coalisions of the Willing, and you have other players in
Speaker 2: the Baltic Sea, you know, the Brits, the United States Navy,
Speaker 2: the Dutch Navy, who are all mixing and mingling in
Speaker 2: this in this very confined and very very shallow body
Speaker 2: of water. And when the we had another escalation of
Speaker 2: uh well, fiddling with with undersea critical undersea infrastructure, so cables, pipelines,
Speaker 2: lots of intelligence gathering ships that we see going around
Speaker 2: wind farms, offshore wind farms that we are we're so
Speaker 2: happy about in Europe. So a lot of this is
Speaker 2: is now even home. The threat picture that the Baltic
Speaker 2: Sea is is a theater. It is it truly is
Speaker 2: a theater of this this well renewed Cold war, not
Speaker 2: not quite peace anymore. We're not not at full scale
Speaker 2: war obviously, and so there's a lot of naval activity
Speaker 2: now in the Baltic Sea, together with partners. There's also
Speaker 2: been a the establishment of the Commander Task Force Baltic
Speaker 2: a new national headquarter, German Navy headquarter that works for NATO,
Speaker 2: and the idea is that maritime domain awareness needs to
Speaker 2: be updated and up graded. And yeah, so this is
Speaker 2: where we stand right now.
Speaker 1: Earlier today, I ran into a map of the Baltic.
Speaker 1: I always feel that a lot of our conceptions are misconceptions.
Speaker 1: Is simply because we're always looking at a north up
Speaker 1: map from a certain perspective. That this map was of
Speaker 1: the Baltic, but it's west up, so at the bottom
Speaker 1: you have Saint Petersburg and the Baltic republics in Finland.
Speaker 1: At the bottom you have that huge mass of Sweden
Speaker 1: sitting up there. And it really does emphasize especially with
Speaker 1: Finland and Sweden officially inside of NATO lifelines. But twenty
Speaker 1: years ago we had thinn and Swedes and NATO headquarters
Speaker 1: in the Partnership for Partnership for Peace plan, so all
Speaker 1: they had to do was change their name tag. So
Speaker 1: we had already historically worked a lot with them. But
Speaker 1: it does emphasize the fact that the old joke of
Speaker 1: the Baltic being a quote NATO lake is absolutely true now.
Speaker 1: But I think what's also helpful is I don't know
Speaker 1: if you share this frustration, but I've always shared this
Speaker 1: frustration is people talk about Baltic security if they're not
Speaker 1: familiar with the area too much. They'll think the Baltic
Speaker 1: republics in Scandinavia forgetting that Poland and Germany are one
Speaker 1: hundred percent Baltic nations and are critical. And especially Denmark,
Speaker 1: Germany and Sweden. Norway they owned the gate to the
Speaker 1: Baltic if you look at it for when you need
Speaker 1: to come in and out, and it has been amazing though.
Speaker 1: Even though the Russians controlled just a little bit of
Speaker 1: shoreline and the Kaliningrad and also in Saint Petersburg in
Speaker 1: the last few years since Nordstream two went bubbly, the
Speaker 1: Russians are still able to produce a lot of havoc
Speaker 1: officially or unofficially, not just in the Baltic but also
Speaker 1: up in the North Sea. That led NATO to create
Speaker 1: an interesting new command that is focused on securing though
Speaker 1: the undersea infrastructure that whether you're talking about Norwegian hydrocarbons,
Speaker 1: are being able to get Internet connectivity between Finland and Estonia.
Speaker 1: It's really been an interesting development that I think has
Speaker 1: been a tap on the shoulder for NATO that there
Speaker 1: are other parts inside our alliance that we need to
Speaker 1: be pay special attention to should things get nasty sooner
Speaker 1: or later. Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, I mean you're right about one thing. Is well,
Speaker 2: you're right about many things. But you know what you
Speaker 2: mentioned is is clearly you know, I mean people need
Speaker 2: to understand that the Baltic Is has such a rich history.
Speaker 2: You know, it goes back to the Hanseatic League, you know,
Speaker 2: first naval power coalition really coalition of the willing, and
Speaker 2: they built warships to God to guard the trade that
Speaker 2: they these early republics, early state in the Middle Ages
Speaker 2: would it would facilitate with one another. And of course
Speaker 2: there's been lots of wars, but there's also been lots
Speaker 2: of cultural exchanges, and the Baltic Sea has always been
Speaker 2: about exchange and trade. And I think that's why Europeans
Speaker 2: were sort of lured into this false understanding after after
Speaker 2: the Cold War. Of course, in the Cold Wars it
Speaker 2: was also it was right on the front line, you know,
Speaker 2: the West German Navy in the East German Navy uh
Speaker 2: met on a daily basically literally and and and if
Speaker 2: the balloon had gotten gone up entirely, the Baltic Sea
Speaker 2: would have been the site of a of a massive,
Speaker 2: massive Soviet red fleet amphibious assault against against NATO, Denmark
Speaker 2: and northern Germany. Uh. More precisely, when the Cold War
Speaker 2: went away, there was so much enthusiasm, I mean, coupled
Speaker 2: with all these other problems that sprung up around the world,
Speaker 2: but the Baltic Sea trill truly became in the minds
Speaker 2: of many see a sea of peace. Right, everyone was
Speaker 2: was a friend. Now everyone could be integrated. And and
Speaker 2: I think that's that's the sort of the false narrative
Speaker 2: that uh that that too many people, including decision makers
Speaker 2: in my country, hung on for for way too long,
Speaker 2: sort of seeing something in the other side, uh and
Speaker 2: more precisely Russia that simply wasn't there. And in the
Speaker 2: meantime sort of going over the concerns, very real concerns
Speaker 2: by the Baltic States, by Poland, by Finland in favor
Speaker 2: of our own economic forcecomings. So so you know, I
Speaker 2: think this is important to understand how how you know,
Speaker 2: the Baltic Sea is not simply this this this confined
Speaker 2: body of water and and uh, you know, can be disregarded.
Speaker 2: It actually is one of the one of the true
Speaker 2: hearts of European culture in European history. And it just
Speaker 2: takes takes some time for for for us to to
Speaker 2: realize this new threat environment which is different from the
Speaker 2: Cold War. You know, this is this is no longer
Speaker 2: the threat environment. And and as we sort of graduate
Speaker 2: from the Baltic Sea to other areas, the North Sea
Speaker 2: and and so on, you know, we can no longer
Speaker 2: as as strategists, as naval lists, we can no longer
Speaker 2: limit ourselves to ship counting. Yes, quantity has a quality
Speaker 2: of its own, but suddenly we have to talk about
Speaker 2: sea cables, we have to talk about wind firms, We
Speaker 2: have to talk about railroad railroads in Sweden and Norway
Speaker 2: for to get forces into the theater if we need to,
Speaker 2: and suddenly we are we need to be experts on
Speaker 2: missile ranges and all these kinds of things, land based
Speaker 2: missile ranges.
Speaker 1: That is.
Speaker 2: That, you know, sort of defy the old how many
Speaker 2: ships do you have and how many how many ships
Speaker 2: does the other side have narrative. I will push back
Speaker 2: Cell on one thing, and I'm always really excited to
Speaker 2: do it. I just simply don't like the term of
Speaker 2: the NATO Lake. And I've written about this so so
Speaker 2: I'm on record for that. It's I understand that you
Speaker 2: know where this is coming from, and there's a lot
Speaker 2: of enthusiasm, and I get that from Finland and Sweden
Speaker 2: as well. They're very happy to join the alliance. And
Speaker 2: of course you're right, it was a small step for them.
Speaker 2: They were as closely personally integrated but associated as a
Speaker 2: as any non member could ever be. And well, it
Speaker 2: took some time for for them to formally join NATO.
Speaker 2: You know, the decision was was was hands on, it
Speaker 2: was wasn't even close in the in the two countries
Speaker 2: whether they should join after February twenty twenty two. My
Speaker 2: problem with with the term is that it might be
Speaker 2: another self delusion in that we simply dust our hands
Speaker 2: off and say, oh, this is a NATO lake now
Speaker 2: we have don't have to worry about anything else. NATO
Speaker 2: rules the seas, NATO rules rules the Baltic and you know,
Speaker 2: my first my first point here is I've I've heard
Speaker 2: that record before. You know, when you look into some
Speaker 2: of the literature on the Cold War, the Mediterranean at
Speaker 2: some point was a NATO lake. After the establishment, the
Speaker 2: creation of U. S. Six fleet, well until at some
Speaker 2: point the Soviets showed up. And there's other there's other
Speaker 2: literature out. The first German Chief of Navy in the
Speaker 2: nineteen fifties declared the North Atlantic a NATO lake, well
Speaker 2: until the Russians showed up or the Soviets showed up
Speaker 2: in in numbers, and and so you know, be careful
Speaker 2: of this of this world. I want to be careful
Speaker 2: of a sort of a reverse self fulfilling prophecy here
Speaker 2: in that the Baltic will be a NATO lake until
Speaker 2: suddenly it isn't. And the other is sort of the
Speaker 2: other problem I have. The other challenge I will I
Speaker 2: will raise is you know what if at some point
Speaker 2: the Chinese declared the South China See a China lake,
Speaker 2: citing the very very same statements that we've in the West. Uh,
Speaker 2: you know, we've we've pat we've we've patted ourselves on
Speaker 2: the shoulders and said, you know, this is a NATO lake.
Speaker 2: What kind of implications does it have globally that we
Speaker 2: should perhaps take into consideration. So you know that this
Speaker 2: would be sort of my my, my, my counterpoints. I'm
Speaker 2: all for NATO expansion and and deeper integration, and and
Speaker 2: but I also want to make a third point, since
Speaker 2: this is a conversation of two American gentlemen and a German,
Speaker 2: and and in our times where we are sort of reassessing,
Speaker 2: you know, our our transatlantic relationship, I wonder if the
Speaker 2: term NATO lake will lead to some policy makers in
Speaker 2: the United States dusting off there and saying, Okay, well,
Speaker 2: it's a NATO lake. We don't have to send any
Speaker 2: U S forces even in the case of conflict anymore.
Speaker 2: And and that's some that's a narrative. I would you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, if it's out there, I would very be
Speaker 2: very curious whether either of you have picked up any
Speaker 2: any of those sentiments, because I know for a fact
Speaker 2: that certainly the Baltic States are very in the Swedes
Speaker 2: and the Fins are very interested in having the US
Speaker 2: in the Baltic seat at some point or in some capacity,
Speaker 2: maybe not with a ship, but certainly with staff and
Speaker 2: with sort of the political and political engagement.
Speaker 1: Well, I only say this partially tongue in cheek. I
Speaker 1: think there are too many sailors that have had great
Speaker 1: liberty experiences during ball tops. So probably the best thing
Speaker 1: NEO could do is just just keep the Navy invited
Speaker 1: inactive at ball tops with good liberty ports. And I
Speaker 1: don't think the US Navy will go anywhere over to you, Mark.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you have to take some of the things that
Speaker 3: are going on with NATO. This is my view of
Speaker 3: the politics involved here. You know, if the NATO countries
Speaker 3: boost their share of the load, as it's saying, goes
Speaker 3: in the US and start really taking things seriously, which well,
Speaker 3: you know, I think it's happening now. Uh, then I
Speaker 3: think that that whole issue of NATO being something the
Speaker 3: US wants to bail out of is going to go away.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: I think it's been too important to us and too
Speaker 3: important to other people around the world that for US
Speaker 3: to get out of it. But it's also the appearance
Speaker 3: of disproportionate burden being placed on the US is is
Speaker 3: is causing some some heartburn, and I think most people
Speaker 3: would understand that if they take it, if they take
Speaker 3: a good look at all that aside. I'm sitting there
Speaker 3: looking at at the at the map like sal Is
Speaker 3: and I'm thinking, well, you know, the Russian's major port
Speaker 3: and the Baltic is Saint Petersburg, and that's a tough
Speaker 3: place to go out of if Finland and Estonia and
Speaker 3: and Sweden are all going to try and stop them.
Speaker 3: And you know, it looks like really easy water to mine.
Speaker 3: But then there's the the threat I think you just
Speaker 3: hit it, the threat of I understand there's some some
Speaker 3: Russian missiles being located in colin Grad and UH, and
Speaker 3: that poses you know, depending on the range of those things,
Speaker 3: that really does pose an interesting threat to anybody trying
Speaker 3: to to transit the Baltic Sea. So talk a little
Speaker 3: bit about that. The difficulties of operating in a small
Speaker 3: environment when you've got this one little tiny part of
Speaker 3: Russia in between Lithuania, UH and Poland, that could cause
Speaker 3: some serious issues if they if they are as heavily
Speaker 3: armed as I would guess they would like to be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And thank you for for raising the cleaning
Speaker 2: Grut issue once again. So yeah, you know, maps, maps, maps.
Speaker 2: Compared to the Cold War, the Russian strategic geography has
Speaker 2: has fundamentally changed for the worst, as you as you
Speaker 2: just pointed out, and the cleaning Grot exclave, so this
Speaker 2: is the former kun Exparira in Prussia, and this is
Speaker 2: the Russians kept the well. When the Soviet Union fell apart,
Speaker 2: Russia retained the part most importantly at the time because
Speaker 2: it was uh they're one of their naval bases. And
Speaker 2: this is the time when in the nineteen nineties when
Speaker 2: the Russian navy went didn't go anywhere.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: It was, it was rusty, it was it was rotting
Speaker 2: in port. And the kleaning Grod exclave or enclave rather
Speaker 2: is it can only be be reinforced through uh well
Speaker 2: coming from the sea from Saint Petersburg or flying all
Speaker 2: around the Baltic Sea states, so usually across the Gulf
Speaker 2: of Finland and then uh then flying into Cleaning Grod.
Speaker 2: And there's a little stretch of land where Lithuania which
Speaker 2: borders kleaning Grad to the north, and Poland which borders
Speaker 2: kleaning Grad to the south, where they where they meet,
Speaker 2: and this is called the Slovak Gap. To anyone who's
Speaker 2: familiar of the of the Cold War, this is the
Speaker 2: new folda gap. This has been this has been identified
Speaker 2: as sort of the the one small corridor where if
Speaker 2: push comes to shove, the Russians would try to go
Speaker 2: through through through Belarus, which they more or less control
Speaker 2: as a proxy state to try to build a land
Speaker 2: bridge between the the the between cleaning Grad and the
Speaker 2: oblast of the wider area and and the Russian motherland.
Speaker 2: In recent years we've seen that there's been a drastic
Speaker 2: increase of land based missiles of various types stationed in
Speaker 2: in in the kleini Grad area UH. That area has
Speaker 2: been heavily militarized, much like in the rest of Russia.
Speaker 2: Any civilian opposition, any peace movement to speak of, has
Speaker 2: been has been driven out or I suppose killed, or
Speaker 2: putting put in the gulag perhaps. And so it's it's
Speaker 2: it's been fortified, and it really sits just right across
Speaker 2: the bay, the Bay of Gadinya and Gadansk two of
Speaker 2: the major Polish UH commercial ports, and Gadinia is also
Speaker 2: the home of the Polish navy. So this is very
Speaker 2: close and very delicate, very delicate situation, and the Russians
Speaker 2: have been able to well, you know, the old saying
Speaker 2: was at was an A two A D zone. There's
Speaker 2: been much more research done now, fantastic papers by the
Speaker 2: Swedes of old people. One of the papers was called Bursting,
Speaker 2: Bursting the Bubble, which did away and convinced me. So
Speaker 2: I thought with the idea that the Baltic Sea would
Speaker 2: be sort of a red lake, and no, no Western
Speaker 2: navy should ever venture into this because it would be
Speaker 2: subject to to Russian land based missile strikes. The threat
Speaker 2: is serious, don't get me wrong. And the Russians have
Speaker 2: have have adapted to their to their less favorable geography
Speaker 2: in in that they have put a lot of emphasis
Speaker 2: on the land based missiles. They've put some caliber missiles
Speaker 2: which is their version of the Tomahawk, on on corvettes
Speaker 2: and and and ships that the navy ships that they
Speaker 2: operate in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic fleet is still
Speaker 2: very small, and it's it's it's sort of insignificant when
Speaker 2: you just use the the metric of vals, tubes or ships,
Speaker 2: you know, native ships us versus Russian ships. But the
Speaker 2: Russians have also been able to utilize a lot of
Speaker 2: these other well is it domains or these other issues
Speaker 2: of of or these other forms of of naval warfare.
Speaker 2: For instance, they've created what they call the shadow of
Speaker 2: what we call the shadow fleet so to so they
Speaker 2: operate through flags of convenience, a fleet of tankers and
Speaker 2: cargo ships, which helps go around the embargo that has
Speaker 2: been put against Russia. And you know, historical and and
Speaker 2: so so these ships are not in a very good state.
Speaker 2: They're rusty, they're often underinsured, the crews are not trained properly,
Speaker 2: and some of them are being used we we understand,
Speaker 2: to launch drones against Polish territory, against German territory, to
Speaker 2: collect data, tolect to to to collect target data from
Speaker 2: naval bases, from our naval basis, from airports, from uh,
Speaker 2: you know, just you name it, the classic, the classic stuff. Now,
Speaker 2: these are not naval ships, so we in the West
Speaker 2: have a little bit of a problem countering them because
Speaker 2: to to us, and you know, every every third or second,
Speaker 2: the second or third ship that passes by is actually
Speaker 2: just the cargo ship. But you know, they do look
Speaker 2: like like regular cargo ships. And so getting the intel
Speaker 2: right and addressing this whether they are now you know,
Speaker 2: whether they's dragging anchor trying to destroy cables or under
Speaker 2: the infrastructure, whether they're you know, doing GPS spoofing, which
Speaker 2: in a in a confined and shallow territory like the
Speaker 2: Baltic Sea kind of does disastrous consequences. Imagine an oil
Speaker 2: tanker or a big cargo ship. Uh, you know, sinking
Speaker 2: and and creating, creating a horrible, horrible mess imagine. You know,
Speaker 2: of course, certainly in the military context as well, you
Speaker 2: need all these you need this, you know, you need
Speaker 2: to working cyber domain, you need GPS and all these
Speaker 2: kind of neat things that you need to navigate in
Speaker 2: in confined and shallow waters, and and and so the
Speaker 2: Russians have also taken a page out of the Soviet
Speaker 2: naval doctrine. Again, if you were around in the Cold War,
Speaker 2: you may have spotted a a well suspicious fishing troller
Speaker 2: type vessel off and Norfolk perhaps hanging out there and
Speaker 2: just you know, just just mining its own business. But
Speaker 2: of course these were signal intelligence ships that were attempting
Speaker 2: to well to to to find out when the US
Speaker 2: Navy would uh would deploy and what it would do
Speaker 2: and all these kind of things. And you know, European
Speaker 2: Northern Europeans turned a bit of a blind eye against
Speaker 2: that capability. Perhaps, you know, we didn't really understand Russian
Speaker 2: naval doctrine. We didn't understand their naval plans and their ambitions. Uh,
Speaker 2: we had a good time laughing about these that that
Speaker 2: that fuming and and uh smoke bellying aircraft carriers of theirs.
Speaker 2: But in the shadow of that, Russia has created a
Speaker 2: lot of headaches for naval planners and naval operators, be
Speaker 2: it again the land based or the ship based missiles,
Speaker 2: be it their activities in the in this in in
Speaker 2: in the Seabad warfare and the undersea domain were the
Speaker 2: activities that they've been they've been doing in this gray zone, UH,
Speaker 2: and the and the hybrid context. So anything that's short
Speaker 2: of war but not peace as we know it yet,
Speaker 2: and then we we really have a problem addressing the scope,
Speaker 2: the width, and the breadth of of that of the
Speaker 2: threat both to our forces but also to our alliance.
Speaker 1: Now, I've always thought the use of gray zone, both
Speaker 1: in this context and also some of the things that
Speaker 1: the people's the Republic of China does, uh in some ways,
Speaker 1: I think in a broader audience that can kind of
Speaker 1: just flow past them. Uh. I almost like the term
Speaker 1: though it can have the opposite reaction, but it really
Speaker 1: is a preparation of the battlespace. And you know, the
Speaker 1: American Navy and Marine Corps, you know, we kicked off
Speaker 1: this entire type of warfare back during the Spanish American War.
Speaker 1: One of the first things we did is off of
Speaker 1: I think of Scinthuegos in Cuba, we sent a landing
Speaker 1: party ashore with a bunch of axes and to cut
Speaker 1: up the Transatlantic cable going from from from mainland from
Speaker 1: continental Spain uh to the New World. And it's one
Speaker 1: of the things that should things a decision made to
Speaker 1: go kinetic that everything that they're doing to map the seabed,
Speaker 1: whether it's in the Baltic with the Russians or the
Speaker 1: Chinese off and around Taiwan, that that that's just giving
Speaker 1: them the information they need to be able to move
Speaker 1: fast early, because especially the Baltic, with those short range
Speaker 1: and all the things you can do from shore based assets,
Speaker 1: it'll get furry furry, real fast. I wanted to roll
Speaker 1: back a little bit to a comment that Mark made
Speaker 1: about NATO spending, and it's been eight years since it
Speaker 1: really broke above the background noise, but heck, when I
Speaker 1: was a NATO staff officer in the first decade of
Speaker 1: this century, it was a regular topic then. But getting
Speaker 1: everybody above above two percent, and I think in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five plus or minus depending upon where you get
Speaker 1: your information from. We're looking at about twenty twenty three
Speaker 1: of thirty two nations have gotten above two percent. And
Speaker 1: we actually have of five NATO members, three of which Poland,
Speaker 1: Stony and Latvia and Lithuania is not too far behind them.
Speaker 1: Are Baltic nations are actually spending over three percent. The
Speaker 1: other is Greece in the USA, and the other nations
Speaker 1: are catching up. And I'm curious A lot of this
Speaker 1: has to do with the fact everybody is realized there's
Speaker 1: still a bear to the east, as there always submit
Speaker 1: a bear to the east for a thousand years. How
Speaker 1: much of the additional funding that nations are investing in
Speaker 1: both national and an alliance defense is going to see
Speaker 1: or as a lot of the additional plus up going
Speaker 1: towards the land component and aviation.
Speaker 2: Great question. So you know from how I see things.
Speaker 2: So when I look at Poland, when I look at
Speaker 2: the three Baltic republics, each of them individually, but also
Speaker 2: the three together, they are bordering Russia, and so they
Speaker 2: will they they are investing much more into the land
Speaker 2: and air components than in the in the naval and
Speaker 2: maritime domain. Historically, the Polish Navy has always been insignificant,
Speaker 2: insignificant in comparison to the Polish Army and the Polish
Speaker 2: Air Force. And you know, a lot of the spending
Speaker 2: also goes into things like border defense, civil civil defense,
Speaker 2: air raid shelters. I mean, all these things that that
Speaker 2: are suddenly more or less suddenly on the on the
Speaker 2: on the to do list, on the agenda. And the
Speaker 2: maritime domain, the maritime sphere, the Southern Baltic Sea, the
Speaker 2: Eastern Baltic Sea is not something that these countries will
Speaker 2: be heavily invested in. When it comes to Germany, you
Speaker 2: know that we we had a at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, this country is a continental nation and it's
Speaker 2: it's waging continental warfare, and so what what what we're doing.
Speaker 2: What we're seeing is that the Navy is sort of
Speaker 2: the German Navy is capitalizing on twenty years post Cold
Speaker 2: War of serving for what was well then always perceived
Speaker 2: as as German national interests. So you know, hunting pirates
Speaker 2: of Somalia, you know, picking up people in distress, refugees
Speaker 2: from the Mediterranean, you know, domestic politics aside. All these
Speaker 2: things showed policy makers and showed people in Germany that
Speaker 2: the navy does things. It's out there operating. It's not
Speaker 2: you know, it's not the air force. It's not you know,
Speaker 2: the army that's garrison or in barracks, and they just
Speaker 2: go places when they when they have to. The Navy's
Speaker 2: out there working and so I think that helps. And
Speaker 2: you know, in conjunction and coupled with the fact that
Speaker 2: the Baltic Sea Germans get it. The Baltic Sea is
Speaker 2: is is a sea. It you know, it's it's maritime.
Speaker 2: So we need some forces and this is sort of
Speaker 2: the lay of the land where the German Navy picks up.
Speaker 2: The problem was that in twenty twenty one, this is
Speaker 2: before the full scale invasion, the German Navy and sort
Speaker 2: of the last grand coalition of the Conservatives and the
Speaker 2: Social Democrats, the outgoing government of Missus Merkel, in the
Speaker 2: last decisions, what they provided sort of over the summer
Speaker 2: before they broke for the election was they checked off
Speaker 2: the wish list modest the very modest wish list of
Speaker 2: the German Navy, including you know, the P eight American
Speaker 2: built maritime patrol aircraft, a couple of midlife refits for frigates.
Speaker 2: The German Navy wasn't quite ambitious, so to speak. It
Speaker 2: sort of you know, we was happy with the bread crumbs.
Speaker 2: And so when twenty twenty two and siteen Vendor, the
Speaker 2: Sea Change speech by Chancellor Schultz rolled around, the German
Speaker 2: Navy actually didn't have anything to know. They didn't have
Speaker 2: a shopping list, like, oops, what are we doing now,
Speaker 2: whereas the army, the German Army and the German Air
Speaker 2: Force had a had glossy brochures ready to say, oh,
Speaker 2: by the way, we're gonna we need the F thirty five,
Speaker 2: which Germany will procure from the United States. And so
Speaker 2: the navy was a bit of a was was was
Speaker 2: caught at a you know, with its pants down. It's changing,
Speaker 2: and it's it's you know, they've they've picked up speed
Speaker 2: again to try to make sure that the Navy is
Speaker 2: growing and that we're modernizing our fleets and and and
Speaker 2: it's it's been certainly in the in the high end,
Speaker 2: in the high end on the on the intensity spectrum.
Speaker 2: So Germany will get new anti submarine warfare frigates of
Speaker 2: the Nita Zaxen class, the F one twenty six. Now
Speaker 2: there's a design for for eaches equipped a w anti
Speaker 2: air warfare frigates of the type F one twenty seven
Speaker 2: ten thousand tons by the way, So you know there's
Speaker 2: those are not frigates in my in my in my book.
Speaker 2: But that's enough. That's for another day. There's going to
Speaker 2: be two additional P eight preside on maritime patrol aircraft.
Speaker 2: There's going to be additional submarines, big submarines that Germany
Speaker 2: and Norway are building together. And lo and behold, these
Speaker 2: are the same submarines. They do not differ. The Norwegians
Speaker 2: and the Germans will be getting the same boats and
Speaker 2: chances are or it it's it's planned that Germany will
Speaker 2: forward base one of its submarines in Bergen, Norway, to
Speaker 2: get some reach into the Norwegian Sea. So you know,
Speaker 2: things that are have been unheard of are are happening
Speaker 2: in the maritime domain. There's other things where we simply well,
Speaker 2: the German Navy and the German government UH and of
Speaker 2: course we had a general election to just this February.
Speaker 2: The coalision is UH is getting ready to to start working.
Speaker 2: The Chancellor, mister Mertz uh well needs to be elected.
Speaker 2: So you know, we we we're we're in limbo here,
Speaker 2: which is of course, you know, always a very bad
Speaker 2: idea when when Europe's economic power is in political limbo
Speaker 2: and doesn't make any decisions. But here we are anyway.
Speaker 2: So there's some some issues, for instance with the mind
Speaker 2: clearance capability, some a capacity in the Baltic Sea that's
Speaker 2: very very useful, but that's been dangerously neglected by naval
Speaker 2: leadership and also by policy makers. There's no replacement at stake.
Speaker 2: And uh, you know, there's also some some some people
Speaker 2: who are wishing back the naval jets.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: The German Navy used to have a Starfighter and then
Speaker 2: later Tornado aircraft. We all gave it up, gave it
Speaker 2: up to the luffuff in two thousand and five. Lufuff
Speaker 2: Is said I will do it, and they never exercised it.
Speaker 2: So we we know lovet that capability. Also there's a
Speaker 2: there's a smaller group of interest, well interest group who
Speaker 2: want to go back to the fast patrol boats of
Speaker 2: the Cold War. Those are not coming back. The German
Speaker 2: Navy gets five additional corvettes, which are not a one
Speaker 2: to one replacement of those fast patrol bo But you know,
Speaker 2: to the two major issues, and this is not genuine
Speaker 2: to the German Navy. This is not genuine to the
Speaker 2: German unforced. It's an issue of the ships, and the
Speaker 2: boats are not on time and they're not on budget.
Speaker 2: And the second issue is manning. Crewing is the fundamental challenge.
Speaker 2: And even if you you know, if you think about
Speaker 2: operating these ships, operate getting people to join the military
Speaker 2: in a society. This is for Germany. You can only
Speaker 2: speak for German. For Germany really that has unlearned war.
Speaker 2: That's been one of my colleagues described as post heroic,
Speaker 2: not willing, not able to to to go into into
Speaker 2: into battle. Really that that, you know, turns a blind
Speaker 2: eye to to the fact that war is still around
Speaker 2: and wars are messy and bloody and traumatic and and
Speaker 2: frankly need to be avoided. This is this is the
Speaker 2: larger conversation and and the Navy alone cannot simply change
Speaker 2: that conversation. It never could, but it can in the
Speaker 2: shadows of these of these conversations. I think it can.
Speaker 2: It can make some headway. But at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, coming back to my initial initial opening, TI
Speaker 2: rate Germany remains army centric and.
Speaker 3: For center, Yeah, I guess the good news is that
Speaker 3: both Sweden and Finland are building some new destroyers and
Speaker 3: frigates or whatever they're going to use. So that's going
Speaker 3: to help supplement the forces in the in the Baltic Sea,
Speaker 3: except that's not going to happen for what three or
Speaker 3: four years. I think they're going to show up. But
Speaker 3: speaking of activity, and the European NATO has started this
Speaker 3: Baltic Century network, and I wondered as part of that,
Speaker 3: Estonia recently arrested one of these dark shadow ships whatever
Speaker 3: you want to shadow fleet ships. How does how is
Speaker 3: how is that viewed in context of what the Russians
Speaker 3: are up to with these with these other vessels they've
Speaker 3: been flowed through the Baltic.
Speaker 2: Mm hmm, great question. Yeah, so you know this is
Speaker 2: this is one of the challenges of this gray zone
Speaker 2: is that when all you have is a hammer, every
Speaker 2: problem looks like a like a nail. Navies are not
Speaker 2: the probably the first best response for, you know, to
Speaker 2: to to board these tankers and these cargo ships, simply
Speaker 2: because there's too many cargo ships and even if you
Speaker 2: just take the suspected ones, we would never have enough
Speaker 2: enough boarding personnel. Not to mention that there's there's tremendous
Speaker 2: legal issues involved. I mean, you don't want to be
Speaker 2: subject to you know, to to to piracy charges if
Speaker 2: if you can't make a clear statement that you need
Speaker 2: to board this vessel right now. And what we've seen
Speaker 2: around the Baltic Sea, interestingly enough, is it's been the
Speaker 2: coastguards UH and the customs inspections that have really put
Speaker 2: a pin into into that shadow fleet. I believe it
Speaker 2: was Finland of Christmas last year that started that the
Speaker 2: Finnish Coast Guard detained a a vessel. And these aren't
Speaker 2: mind you, these are not Russian flagged. These are you know,
Speaker 2: flags of convenience UH. And and usually none of the
Speaker 2: crew is is from Russia. They are simply being you know,
Speaker 2: through shadow firms and through through UH money laundering schemes
Speaker 2: and all these things. They're being utilized as Russian assets.
Speaker 2: Now it's very difficult to prove that while a ship
Speaker 2: is dragging an anchor across the sensitive area of of
Speaker 2: the Baltic Sea. And you know, we've we've with Europeans
Speaker 2: pride ourselves with with you know, due process, and we
Speaker 2: don't want to risk a military mirror till military confrontation
Speaker 2: over some rusty sey shells flagged general cargo ship. And
Speaker 2: so you know, i'll i'll have to admire the both well,
Speaker 2: with the Fins and the Estonians, even the Germans, my
Speaker 2: fellow Germans, found ways to and to to detain those
Speaker 2: ships through inspections, through coast guard inspections and in German,
Speaker 2: in the case of Germany, the customs inspection. In fact,
Speaker 2: there's a tanker that was that had that had an
Speaker 2: engine failure of the island of Rugen, Germany's largest island
Speaker 2: in in the Baltic Sea. That it took some it
Speaker 2: actually took some some days to secure it. And then uh,
Speaker 2: the custom the German bureaucracy stepped in, and you know,
Speaker 2: you don't want to mess this is pure discretion as advised,
Speaker 2: never messed with German bureaucracy, because the bureaucrats in the
Speaker 2: customs offices they found ways to not only detain that
Speaker 2: particular ship, but also to confiscate the cargo and to
Speaker 2: sell it, which is which was oil crude oil from Russia,
Speaker 2: you know, which was which was going out of the
Speaker 2: Baltic Sea into likely the Mediterranean or somewhere in the
Speaker 2: in in Asia. Now, these things are not glamorous. This
Speaker 2: is not your Captain Phillips movie type of visit board,
Speaker 2: surge and seizure operation. These take some time and these
Speaker 2: are again bureaucrasts. They work slowly, but once their wrath
Speaker 2: is unleashed, they can really go places. And I think
Speaker 2: that's been happening in Estonia, that's been happening in uh
Speaker 2: in Germany and Finland. The coast guard corporation coast guards
Speaker 2: is another matter. Most navies here don't have the uh, well,
Speaker 2: I should I should step back. Some navies here in
Speaker 2: the Baltic Sea region and in the wider Northern Flank region,
Speaker 2: they the navies have coast guard tasks, so there's not
Speaker 2: a separate coast guard. In other nations there's a separate
Speaker 2: coast guard, and then still other nations there's a coast guard,
Speaker 2: like in Germany, but the coast guard is simply just
Speaker 2: an umbrella organization which has you know, like the Customs
Speaker 2: Inspectionship and the Federal police and the you know, the
Speaker 2: Department of Transportation. Ships. They all have this kind Frombrella,
Speaker 2: but there's no unified coast guard. So that's where corporation corporation,
Speaker 2: and that's where integration is is really important. It certainly
Speaker 2: would help to engage. You know, there's there's things like
Speaker 2: the Coastguard. There's coast guard interaction. I forget the name
Speaker 2: of it, uh, you know, but but there's there's there's
Speaker 2: ways for these coast guards to interact so that navies
Speaker 2: are not uniquely tasked with stopping cargo ships, because we
Speaker 2: need our navies to do other things, most importantly to
Speaker 2: deter Russia.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: I don't know if mister Putin and his cronies are
Speaker 2: deterred by German bureaucrats or Estonian bureaucrats, but it's a
Speaker 2: step in the right direction.
Speaker 1: It's a good thing. I had my my mic muta
Speaker 1: because I started laughing. You know, from their American perspective,
Speaker 1: and Sebastian, you lived in the US, you understand this.
Speaker 1: The American government a bureaucrats. Uh. And don't get me wrong,
Speaker 1: I love Italians, but they're kind of like the Italian bureaucracy.
Speaker 1: You take a deep breath, you know it's going to
Speaker 1: be painful. No, for those have it experienced. German bureaucrats
Speaker 1: are Dutch bureaucrats, or they're scary because they're really, really good.
Speaker 1: When they have you at a corner, there's no escape,
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it's definitely a different experience. Nobody wants
Speaker 1: to be at the at the focused end of a
Speaker 1: of a Baltic bureaucrat. That's a fact, especially if he's
Speaker 1: if he if he's German. And also something for the
Speaker 1: listeners to look up when a couple of times we've
Speaker 1: mentioned the Hanseatic League and most of most of our
Speaker 1: listeners are Americans that you can't it seems like it's
Speaker 1: you know, medieval history or Renaissance history, but it's really not.
Speaker 1: And for those who live in the continent and they
Speaker 1: drive around, you start to notice, even to this day
Speaker 1: and the as we are entering the second quarter of
Speaker 1: the twenty first century, even on the German license plates,
Speaker 1: the old Hanseatic cities, their license plates still have it
Speaker 1: h at the front. History. History is always there. It's uh,
Speaker 1: I know, as somebody focused on German security issues, this
Speaker 1: focus back to the Baltics. It's serious and it has
Speaker 1: a lot of history there and things haven't changed all
Speaker 1: that much and a lot of it is as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: it's trade. It's you know, everything from iron ore to
Speaker 1: lumber to manufactured goods, going back to beeswax and pickled herring.
Speaker 1: It's it's serious, it's big money. But there's also in
Speaker 1: that business. It's shipbuilding. And you mentioned the new submarine
Speaker 1: that Norway and Germany is going to be working together.
Speaker 1: If I had a magic wand, I would have the
Speaker 1: Canadians get in on that action and find a way
Speaker 1: to buy some of those to replace their old upholder submarines.
Speaker 1: Poland they need, they need some submarines to do so
Speaker 1: maybe German industry as an alliance, we can we can
Speaker 1: help each other out. And we saw something interesting on
Speaker 1: our end that America loves selling their f thirty fives
Speaker 1: and other equipment to other people. But we haven't big,
Speaker 1: big fans unfortunately of buying from our friends and ally
Speaker 1: as well. But last month we saw an announcement that
Speaker 1: the US is going to enter in and work with
Speaker 1: the FINS to buy thin ice breakers. And I'm curious
Speaker 1: with the industry and in the maritime nations in NATO
Speaker 1: if they can get past some of the nashing of
Speaker 1: teeth and rending a close at the new administration has
Speaker 1: that announcement with partnering with the FIN shipbuilding industry, has
Speaker 1: that started any other conversation about other things, because let's
Speaker 1: be honest here, when you look at all the European
Speaker 1: nations that have substantial shipbuilding, they produce some really good product,
Speaker 1: they have a lot of expertise, they're very modern in
Speaker 1: a lot of ways. America could our industry could definitely
Speaker 1: learn a lot. Fincantierry has brought some good stuff over here.
Speaker 1: But has that action with Finland started some other conversations
Speaker 1: about expanding the partnership between North America in Europe and
Speaker 1: the ship building arena.
Speaker 2: That's a good question. It certainly has once one moves
Speaker 2: beyond the headlines, I mean the whole conversation, and I
Speaker 2: just want to touch it. But the whole conversation about
Speaker 2: Greenland has not been helpful in this wider context. However,
Speaker 2: I think what it did was it raised attention to
Speaker 2: issues such as ice breaking capability, such as Chinese and
Speaker 2: Russian influence in the hard North. And you know, I
Speaker 2: think this is this is where this conversation where we
Speaker 2: collectively have to drive this conversation is how do we
Speaker 2: get ships into the water capable ships? And you know,
Speaker 2: to to to do away with some of these or
Speaker 2: to unlearn rather some of these things that we've just
Speaker 2: individually and collectively learned that we just built our national
Speaker 2: ships and we just operate them like that. And and
Speaker 2: you know, I would you know, there's a lot of
Speaker 2: appetite for this new kind of creativity. You know, let's
Speaker 2: let's try something else, let's try something different this time.
Speaker 2: And I you know, there's the German Norwegian Submarine pro
Speaker 2: program is sort of very unique, and it was born
Speaker 2: out of this idea that hey, let's let's do something
Speaker 2: that we that no one has ever done. Yes, there's
Speaker 2: been NATO navies who built frigates together, but they ended up,
Speaker 2: you know, fifty percent different from one another, depending on
Speaker 2: which country operate. And this is this is something new
Speaker 2: and and to to uh, you know, to to to
Speaker 2: your point, sell, the Canadians are genuinely genuinely interested in
Speaker 2: getting in on that program. That's all I can say
Speaker 2: at this moment. But that would create a new that
Speaker 2: would create sort of a NATO North Atlantic conventional submarine
Speaker 2: alliance and could really complement the the established submarine forces,
Speaker 2: the nuclear powered tag boats that U you know, are
Speaker 2: keeping the North Atlantic safe, and the icebreaker issue would
Speaker 2: be another would be another great thing to look into.
Speaker 2: And you know, we need to get our brightest minds together,
Speaker 2: both from amer in America, in Europe, but also collectively
Speaker 2: to think about where is potential that we, for one
Speaker 2: reason or another haven't seen, you know, think about shipyard
Speaker 2: that shipyards that can repair use navy ships in Europe,
Speaker 2: think about building ships on either side of the Atlantic.
Speaker 2: I you know, I'm very enthusiastic about two of my
Speaker 2: two of my friends who are now involved in shipbuilding
Speaker 2: and policy. First Jerry Hendrix, Captain retired working now in
Speaker 2: the White House, but more so my former boss, now
Speaker 2: Senator Todd Young of Indiana. When I worked for him
Speaker 2: when he was a junior congressman in the House of
Speaker 2: Representatives some fifteen years ago, he he already had his
Speaker 2: eyes on shipbuilding, and lo and behold, he's now one
Speaker 2: of the authors, one of the people who push aggressively
Speaker 2: the the the ships Act, not the chips, but the
Speaker 2: ships Act. So there's a lot of movement there and
Speaker 2: and you know, I think there's also there's also an
Speaker 2: opportunity for Europe again. We are you know, we are
Speaker 2: you know, there's there's a lot of things that we
Speaker 2: we can be accused of mostly most of it is true.
Speaker 2: But we do get around. We eventually do get around.
Speaker 2: We're not lazy, We're not you know, we're not trying
Speaker 2: to to stop everyone from having a successful shipbuilding or
Speaker 2: naval uh naval corporation. It just it just takes some
Speaker 2: time for us to to to get around the curve here.
Speaker 2: And you know, there's there's things that have been sort
Speaker 2: of courtesy even of the European Union. I know that
Speaker 2: not a lot of people are fans of the European
Speaker 2: Union as a as a as a body, but it's
Speaker 2: created some standards and it's created some you know, some
Speaker 2: some some things legislative things really in shipbuilding. One of
Speaker 2: them led to the German government actually giving the F
Speaker 2: one twenty six this is our next ASW frigate who
Speaker 2: diamond shipyards in the Netherlands. Because the European specification said
Speaker 2: you have to make an open call, so every European
Speaker 2: shipyard can nominally make an offer for your next frigate.
Speaker 2: This has been the case, this has been around four decades.
Speaker 2: Usually the case was that, you know, when the French
Speaker 2: Navy wanted to build French ships, they made it so
Speaker 2: that only French yards could eventually make, you know, across
Speaker 2: the hurdle, and the Germans were the first ones to
Speaker 2: to to really go through with this and say maybe
Speaker 2: we were not quite as as as happy with German
Speaker 2: ship building in the past. Let's also make a statement now.
Speaker 2: What happened was German ship building said, oh, okay, we'll
Speaker 2: really have to up our game. Let's create a ship.
Speaker 2: Let's let's build a ship. Let's build the next class,
Speaker 2: the F one twenty seven a W and let's make
Speaker 2: it bigger and better and more on budget and on time.
Speaker 2: So suddenly you have a lot of movement that again
Speaker 2: has has been has its roots in bureaucracy. And I
Speaker 2: can't believe I's say that, but you know, a lot
Speaker 2: of this bureoucracy is actually good for something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good point. You know, earlier on you
Speaker 3: talked about maritime domain awareness, and I know that standard
Speaker 3: standing Naval Maritime Group one is hanging around off or
Speaker 3: floating around in between Finland and Estonia or somewhere out there,
Speaker 3: and I'm wondering what the what the the I was
Speaker 3: And I'm gonna go here, I'm gonna disappear down a
Speaker 3: rabbit hole myself. You talked about the Russian UH intelligence
Speaker 3: gathering ships and you asked whether we had any familiar Well,
Speaker 3: I remember when I was in the Pacific, the Primori
Speaker 3: class ships were following our carriers off Vietnam and and
Speaker 3: also were poked UH sitting off Guam trying to find
Speaker 3: out what was happening there too. So yeah, they they
Speaker 3: do a pretty good job of trying to figure out
Speaker 3: what's going on in the world and see and as
Speaker 3: Seal said, get themselves ready for what could happen. And
Speaker 3: I'm wondering about the same thing with the Standard and
Speaker 3: s N MG one and whether their domain awareness is
Speaker 3: what is helping the the Finns and the the Estonians
Speaker 3: and some of the other countries. Perhaps even Germany could
Speaker 3: aboard some of these ships with their coast guards or
Speaker 3: customs or whatever. Are their people?
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And and and another great question here the
Speaker 2: fact that NATO has not one, but two standing maritime
Speaker 2: groups as an MG one which is mostly frigates and destroyers,
Speaker 2: and as an m c M Mind Continmentials Group one,
Speaker 2: which is as the name suggests, mostly mind condom measure
Speaker 2: ressults vessels. Currently actually last week last week they were
Speaker 2: involved in an exercise off the Polish coast and you know,
Speaker 2: we got some some some some uh interesting information from that,
Speaker 2: including that, of course the Russians were using drones to
Speaker 2: try to harass those ships in international waters. All of
Speaker 2: this is happening at a you know, at an alarming
Speaker 2: and increasing rate, and there's a lot of attention now,
Speaker 2: not least because the media, both mainstream as well as
Speaker 2: blogs as well as a lot of the public interest
Speaker 2: is simply now geared towards things are happening in the
Speaker 2: Baltic seat. It's almost like, you know, almost like a
Speaker 2: like a magnifying glass under magnifying glass where a new
Speaker 2: or not so new threat is emerging and it's it's
Speaker 2: it's more intense by the day. The fact that we
Speaker 2: have a standing or two standing NATO maritime groups there
Speaker 2: is is great. The problem is that there's also other
Speaker 2: groups such as the the bridge Let Joint Expeditionary Force.
Speaker 2: This is not a standing naval task group. But the
Speaker 2: Brits thought this up and I believe twenty sixteen, to
Speaker 2: to engage with the Northern European countries. Poland is not
Speaker 2: a member, Germany is not a member, all the other
Speaker 2: Northern Flag member countries except Russia of course, are members,
Speaker 2: and so there needs to be some deconfliction. The idea
Speaker 2: of this command in Rostock, the city of Baltic, headed
Speaker 2: by a one star German Navy is to fuse all
Speaker 2: that data. And we're just now talking about, of course
Speaker 2: the military data. There's there's tons and tons of commercial
Speaker 2: data because in the Baltic Sea again, wind farms, cable operators, pipelines,
Speaker 2: there's a lot of lots of tourism and commercial traffic.
Speaker 2: All these are principally sensors. All these ships and all
Speaker 2: these all this infrastructure is sensors and with the help
Speaker 2: of big data. There's some interesting work being done here
Speaker 2: out of kiel By by private companies who are trying
Speaker 2: to fuse trying to use big data to to first
Speaker 2: gather all this very often available in the public domain.
Speaker 2: Actually all this, all this data that's available on the
Speaker 2: Baltic see anything from you know, how the how the
Speaker 2: seabed looks like, where where there's where there's infrastructure, where
Speaker 2: there's unexploded ammunition from the world wars. Try to fuse
Speaker 2: that and feed that into this This new command in
Speaker 2: Rostock and you know, there's been some growing pains the
Speaker 2: German The German government was very keen to say this
Speaker 2: is a German national tactical headquarter, whereas all the Allies
Speaker 2: were like, wait a minute, wasn't this a NATO headquarter?
Speaker 2: And isn't that how we assign the troops to it? So,
Speaker 2: you know, the growing pains involve a lot of the
Speaker 2: you know, let's you know, let's let's try not to
Speaker 2: not to to let's try to conflict things, but also
Speaker 2: let's try to fuse things that we already have. This
Speaker 2: is less about that's about reinventing the wheel than you know,
Speaker 2: dodging the eyes and crossing the t's no pun intended.
Speaker 1: Especially, I just realized we have just finished up a
Speaker 1: great and a really really fast hour. Again, I appreciate
Speaker 1: you you taking time to invest out with us and
Speaker 1: our listeners. For the listeners, if they wanted to keep
Speaker 1: track of what what you were working on, where's a
Speaker 1: good place for them to put their eyes And do
Speaker 1: you have a project you're working on right now that
Speaker 1: we should look forward to in the next few months.
Speaker 2: Well, it's been an absolute pleasure to be back on
Speaker 2: the show. Gentlemen. Uh, I couldn't be. It couldn't be,
Speaker 2: couldn't be happy at having spent my late Sunday night.
Speaker 2: It's actually Monday morning in Germany. Now with you, with
Speaker 2: you too. I'm actually in between well, not jobs, but projects.
Speaker 2: Most importantly, I've left X simply because I was too
Speaker 2: busy doing other stuff, and I do plan to start
Speaker 2: a substack in the meantime. You know, if you if
Speaker 2: you look for the Institute for Security Policy at Kill
Speaker 2: University or www dot QC power series dot com, you'll
Speaker 2: find my profile. You'll find that I'm working on a project,
Speaker 2: a multi year project on NATO maritime strategies and naval
Speaker 2: operations from the Cold War to today. And yeah, you
Speaker 2: know I'll be I'll be hanging around podcasts and anyone
Speaker 2: who's who sends me an invite, h I'll attend, I'll speak.
Speaker 3: Well, we need to have you back again more often.
Speaker 3: This has been too long, and you're a fund of
Speaker 3: good information. Thank you, and I.
Speaker 1: Really appreciate it once again, and I hope you have
Speaker 1: a great spring, and I appreciate everybody join us for
Speaker 1: another edition of mid Rats, and until next time, I
Speaker 1: hope you have a great Navy Day chairs,