WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.720 --> 00:00:03.200 All right, hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes 2 00:00:03.240 --> 00:00:05.799 on Geopolis. We've got a full crew today, Andy Milburn, 3 00:00:06.040 --> 00:00:08.800 Mark poly Moropolis, Jonathan Hackett, Mick mulroy. 4 00:00:09.519 --> 00:00:10.480 The boys are all here. 5 00:00:10.519 --> 00:00:13.199 Too many marines, but we'll figure that out at some point, 6 00:00:13.279 --> 00:00:19.000 I hope. All Right, we've had our dizzying week with 7 00:00:19.239 --> 00:00:24.760 the the Memorandum of Understanding. I'm gonna do a little 8 00:00:24.760 --> 00:00:27.000 bit of context for people, just because, like if you're 9 00:00:27.000 --> 00:00:29.120 following me on Twitter and stuff and like reading like 10 00:00:29.320 --> 00:00:32.359 an article here and there, it's like it changes every 11 00:00:32.439 --> 00:00:37.640 twelve hours essentially at what's going on. We signed a 12 00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:43.759 deal basically over like you know, remotely with Iran for 13 00:00:43.880 --> 00:00:47.119 the sixty day seasfire where they were gonna talk about 14 00:00:47.520 --> 00:00:50.840 the larger issue of the nuclear issue and the enriched 15 00:00:50.960 --> 00:00:55.479 uranium in that fourteen point plan. These are just someone 16 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:57.759 like the basic points. You guys can correct me and 17 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:00.439 add a little bit more context. On top of that, 18 00:01:01.159 --> 00:01:04.239 there would have been the straight of Hormuz opening to normal, 19 00:01:05.239 --> 00:01:11.879 the US blockade lifted, some talk about opening up and 20 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:15.760 giving some money to you a round like their frozen assets, 21 00:01:16.159 --> 00:01:17.959 and then there was also talk of a three hundred 22 00:01:17.959 --> 00:01:21.319 billion dollar I guess sovereign wealth front of reconstruction fund 23 00:01:21.920 --> 00:01:23.799 that was supposedly going to be paid out by the 24 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:27.400 majority of the GCC countries or the Gulf countries. At 25 00:01:27.480 --> 00:01:30.359 least one hundred and fifty billion of that was supposedly 26 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:33.879 secured for that. The other one hundred and fifty billion, 27 00:01:33.879 --> 00:01:35.760 I don't know where it's coming from. Some say US, 28 00:01:36.400 --> 00:01:40.719 you know, the US is denying that obviously over and 29 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:43.920 the big Cavy, the big boy. The big issue that 30 00:01:44.120 --> 00:01:49.280 looks like what will could kill the ceasefire is Lebanon 31 00:01:49.359 --> 00:01:51.959 and what's going on with Israel and Hesbola, who have 32 00:01:52.040 --> 00:01:56.000 been trading back and forth clearly out of Israel. I 33 00:01:56.000 --> 00:01:58.799 would say that Yahoo's been playing at Kanda down the line, 34 00:01:58.799 --> 00:02:00.879 trying to like weasel his way like he's good at 35 00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:02.599 because he's a politician at the end of the day. 36 00:02:02.920 --> 00:02:06.719 But the ultra right homies like Kevier have been freaking 37 00:02:06.760 --> 00:02:09.159 out about this, you know, saying that we're not going 38 00:02:09.199 --> 00:02:11.240 to stop the war no matter what they're not. No 39 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:15.039 no deal is going to stop us unless we're involved. 40 00:02:15.960 --> 00:02:21.759 That's just like basically like the top little layer of it. 41 00:02:21.759 --> 00:02:24.000 It's been dizzy because I've been trying to keep track 42 00:02:24.039 --> 00:02:25.919 of this ship for the last week, and it's been 43 00:02:27.000 --> 00:02:29.159 I was just I was just fed up. I was like, 44 00:02:29.520 --> 00:02:32.080 you know, who knows what will happen. Vance was supposed 45 00:02:32.120 --> 00:02:35.639 to go to Switzerland. He delayed. He eventually showed up today. 46 00:02:36.080 --> 00:02:40.560 They're meeting now and Steve Wickoff and Jared Kushner are there, 47 00:02:40.599 --> 00:02:43.560 of course, so everything will be great. I'm sure of it. 48 00:02:44.479 --> 00:02:48.439 Vance did bite back at a specifically Gavier. He kind 49 00:02:48.439 --> 00:02:51.199 of he kind of kept net and Yahoo out of 50 00:02:51.240 --> 00:02:52.919 it and gave Net and Yahoo a little bit of 51 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:57.400 credit while going at Gavier and the the far right 52 00:02:57.599 --> 00:03:01.120 of the war cabinet pretty harsh words too. 53 00:03:01.159 --> 00:03:02.840 You know. You know there was a I think a 54 00:03:02.919 --> 00:03:04.479 quote saying there's a country of. 55 00:03:04.520 --> 00:03:06.560 Nine million people and you can't just kill your way 56 00:03:06.599 --> 00:03:09.439 out of your problems. And I'm gonna be honest, for 57 00:03:09.479 --> 00:03:12.360 the first time probably ever, I'm agreeing with JD. 58 00:03:12.479 --> 00:03:12.759 Vance. 59 00:03:14.680 --> 00:03:18.000 So you guys give us some context, let us know 60 00:03:18.240 --> 00:03:19.879 you know what you guys are thinking, what you guys 61 00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:25.439 are tracking. I'm gonna start with let's start with Milburn today. 62 00:03:26.240 --> 00:03:26.879 Uh huh. 63 00:03:27.280 --> 00:03:29.439 Well, you know I'm gonna be fairly short because I 64 00:03:29.479 --> 00:03:33.159 know Mark wrote an excellent essay on what a tremendous 65 00:03:33.159 --> 00:03:36.680 success this for the United States, the the MoU is. 66 00:03:36.719 --> 00:03:37.240 So I think we. 67 00:03:37.240 --> 00:03:39.400 Should to sum that up. 68 00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:41.039 Well, what do make me? 69 00:03:41.159 --> 00:03:44.120 You know, just ooking with what just happened. So just 70 00:03:44.159 --> 00:03:48.479 three days after signing, Iron shut US straight again over 71 00:03:48.520 --> 00:03:52.319 over Lebanon, right, because that was part of Iran's stipulation 72 00:03:52.439 --> 00:03:56.159 that Lebanon become part of the deal. So even the 73 00:03:56.280 --> 00:04:00.560 US and Iran's own government kind of agree if if 74 00:04:00.599 --> 00:04:08.800 it was actually closed, Syncom apparently saying traffic's flowing. But 75 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:11.520 but you know, this brings up an interesting point. And 76 00:04:11.960 --> 00:04:17.519 and you know, I mentioned Mark's Marx article h and 77 00:04:17.519 --> 00:04:23.839 and of course I think it really there's the fact 78 00:04:23.879 --> 00:04:27.040 that the US failed and in our strategy, we really 79 00:04:27.079 --> 00:04:29.399 didn't have a strategy. We have a list of targets, 80 00:04:30.000 --> 00:04:34.079 it was kind of vague, there was no defined end state. Yes, 81 00:04:34.160 --> 00:04:37.199 that is a story in itself, but I think, and 82 00:04:37.240 --> 00:04:39.759 this is where John's expertise, I think will come in. 83 00:04:40.040 --> 00:04:42.720 I think it's fair to say Iran did have a strategy, 84 00:04:43.040 --> 00:04:45.680 and it's one they've been preparing for years. You know, 85 00:04:45.720 --> 00:04:48.600 a lot of people talk about the mosaic doctrine, which 86 00:04:48.680 --> 00:04:52.639 is kind of decentralized command. It's kind of mission command, 87 00:04:52.680 --> 00:04:56.199 which is our own doctrine. But it really worked. I mean, 88 00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:58.560 they anticipated that they would lose a lot of guys 89 00:04:58.560 --> 00:05:00.920 at the top of the pyramid, and they designed a 90 00:05:01.079 --> 00:05:03.879 system that could still continue to function. 91 00:05:04.560 --> 00:05:05.279 So that worked. 92 00:05:05.319 --> 00:05:08.160 Number one, and again i'll keep this brief. Number two, 93 00:05:08.279 --> 00:05:12.959 they've built an economy that was some extent resistant to sanctions. 94 00:05:13.040 --> 00:05:16.759 I mean, John's already talked about the fact that the 95 00:05:16.800 --> 00:05:21.319 IRGC didn't suffer too terribly from the pounding that the 96 00:05:21.560 --> 00:05:24.360 Iranian economy took for all the reasons that we've given 97 00:05:24.399 --> 00:05:29.920 on their show, but also the fact that you know, 98 00:05:30.000 --> 00:05:34.480 through deals with China and elsewhere, Iran has again designed 99 00:05:34.519 --> 00:05:38.920 its economy so that so that sanctions are are no 100 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:41.879 longer such a such a weapon as as they used 101 00:05:41.879 --> 00:05:46.639 to be. And the last thing I'll say on that 102 00:05:47.319 --> 00:05:51.079 on their strategy, which I think is really important, it's 103 00:05:51.120 --> 00:05:53.879 what they went after. You know, all these firing of 104 00:05:53.959 --> 00:05:57.600 missiles and drones and they had, yeah, they had an 105 00:05:57.639 --> 00:06:01.560 extensive inventory, but it wasn't random. You know, they went 106 00:06:01.600 --> 00:06:06.360 after key targets. They went after uh they'd identified what 107 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:12.480 makes what what? When US employees airpower. What really makes 108 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:16.240 that work, and it is the what high density or 109 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:20.480 high demand load density items it depends on, and that 110 00:06:20.639 --> 00:06:24.279 is our command and control notes, right, especially a wax aircraft, 111 00:06:25.000 --> 00:06:29.240 our tanker fleet, which actually is quite limited and it's aging. 112 00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:33.959 And it went after both of those on the ground, 113 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:39.120 for instance in Saudi Arabia and peace app and caused 114 00:06:39.160 --> 00:06:45.600 extensive damage. And and also ground based command and control 115 00:06:45.759 --> 00:06:49.040 as well as air defense our radars, so ability to 116 00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:52.240 sense all of these things were on the Iran's target list. 117 00:06:52.600 --> 00:06:55.439 It wasn't simply hey, we're going to just fire ship 118 00:06:56.120 --> 00:06:59.079 and show they were not beaten. They were very careful 119 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:06.959 about what they had. They understood clearly the imbalance between 120 00:07:07.959 --> 00:07:13.720 you know, the cost in effectiveness between interceptors and drones 121 00:07:13.800 --> 00:07:18.639 and missiles, especially drones. And that isn't just about you 122 00:07:18.680 --> 00:07:21.040 know that cliche we always hear about that, you know, 123 00:07:21.079 --> 00:07:24.800 and a Patriot interceptor costs x million dollars and a 124 00:07:24.879 --> 00:07:28.800 Shahad missile costs twenty to thirty thousand dollars. It's not 125 00:07:28.920 --> 00:07:31.879 just about that. It's about death on the bench. How 126 00:07:31.920 --> 00:07:35.399 many interceptors we actually have, all right, how many we 127 00:07:35.480 --> 00:07:40.399 need globally in order to sustain our commitments, and they 128 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:43.399 understood all that they and they kind of led us dry. 129 00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:48.279 And the last thing was that targeting of golf countries 130 00:07:49.240 --> 00:07:56.199 was very carefully deliberately done and instead of yes, it 131 00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:59.959 did piss off the golf countries, but it also had 132 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:03.680 the effect of driving a wedge between the US and 133 00:08:03.759 --> 00:08:07.000 our partners here because Iran could show that we could 134 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:09.800 not protect them, we had not gone to the effort 135 00:08:09.800 --> 00:08:12.680 to build a coalition. And then when it really mattered, 136 00:08:12.920 --> 00:08:17.120 you saw UAE and Saudi Arabia saying at key parts 137 00:08:17.120 --> 00:08:20.560 of this conflict, no, we're not going to support and 138 00:08:20.639 --> 00:08:23.759 I believe I think it was Kuwait right, they said, no, 139 00:08:23.839 --> 00:08:26.600 we're not going to allow our bases to be used 140 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:32.720 for further strikes on Iran. So again, you know, this, 141 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:37.519 MoU is kind of I think a natural follow on. 142 00:08:37.960 --> 00:08:41.720 They sustained a beating, but all they had to do 143 00:08:41.799 --> 00:08:42.320 was survive. 144 00:08:42.559 --> 00:08:43.080 They did that. 145 00:08:43.519 --> 00:08:46.200 They sent a message of resilience. We've all seen these 146 00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:51.000 lego videos that were masterfully made, and now they've they've 147 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:55.720 controlled the negotiations. Do I like that? No, of course 148 00:08:55.759 --> 00:08:58.559 I don't like that, And I'm just commenting on how 149 00:08:58.600 --> 00:09:03.600 they've they've and they've really understood. That's how switching thing 150 00:09:03.679 --> 00:09:06.759 about war being politics by another. 151 00:09:06.559 --> 00:09:10.320 Means well, wants it back at you go, I'm gonna 152 00:09:10.320 --> 00:09:11.480 take it. I'm taking charge here. 153 00:09:12.120 --> 00:09:14.480 Yeah, I'll branch off of what Andy mentioned about the 154 00:09:14.559 --> 00:09:17.279 economy and sanctions and all this. You know, the regime 155 00:09:17.279 --> 00:09:20.720 has been framing their economy as a resistance economy since 156 00:09:20.720 --> 00:09:23.200 the nineteen nineties, and in Farsi they actually call it 157 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:25.480 this a resistance economy, and what that means is a 158 00:09:25.519 --> 00:09:29.840 resilient economy that can survive external impacts, whether those are 159 00:09:29.919 --> 00:09:34.039 sanctions or reductions in capacity, or just actual logistical challenges 160 00:09:34.039 --> 00:09:36.320 of getting things done out of the country due to geopolitics. 161 00:09:36.639 --> 00:09:40.000 They've designed their economy to survive this way, and it's 162 00:09:40.120 --> 00:09:43.799 very clear that their structuring of that was successful. And 163 00:09:43.840 --> 00:09:45.879 that doesn't mean it was successful for the running people. 164 00:09:45.879 --> 00:09:47.879 It means it was successful for the regime elites, the 165 00:09:47.919 --> 00:09:51.240 small minority of people in and outside of Iran who 166 00:09:51.559 --> 00:09:54.720 are able to maintain their safety, security, and their grip 167 00:09:54.759 --> 00:09:59.399 on power throughout this really high intensity conflict against their country. 168 00:10:00.039 --> 00:10:02.600 The US is very good at overwhelming fire superiority. This 169 00:10:02.679 --> 00:10:04.919 is something that we're very good at we're very precise 170 00:10:04.960 --> 00:10:06.480 at that we can put a lot of ordinance on 171 00:10:06.519 --> 00:10:10.200 targets very rapidly in a very large geographic dispersion, which 172 00:10:10.200 --> 00:10:12.679 we saw was true especially in Western Iran during the war. 173 00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:17.080 Despite that, Iran was able to use, as Andy mentioned, 174 00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:20.840 very precise, careful, deliberate strikes on allies and partners in 175 00:10:20.840 --> 00:10:25.600 the region for non military purposes. And that's contrast to 176 00:10:25.639 --> 00:10:28.000 what it seemed the US strategy was was a purely 177 00:10:28.519 --> 00:10:33.080 operational or campaign level strategy of striking a certain series 178 00:10:33.120 --> 00:10:36.159 of targets or a target deck to affect a military outcome, 179 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:39.720 whereas the Iranian regime the IERGC was thinking beyond the 180 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.639 military objective. They were thinking about political outcomes and impacts 181 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:46.639 of their military actions, which again is just like Andy 182 00:10:46.639 --> 00:10:49.559 mentioned a klouds Whitzy in concept, where military is a 183 00:10:49.559 --> 00:10:52.320 policy instrument, it is not an end. 184 00:10:52.799 --> 00:10:53.399 And it seemed that. 185 00:10:53.399 --> 00:10:55.759 Iran was using that and understood that that if they 186 00:10:55.799 --> 00:10:59.279 hit Katar or they hit Kuwait, there will be political ramifications. 187 00:10:59.320 --> 00:11:01.480 That true, there is some sacrifice on their side that 188 00:11:01.519 --> 00:11:04.279 are negative impacts for Iran, but they will also negatively 189 00:11:04.279 --> 00:11:06.679 impact the United States. So they're kind of using that 190 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:09.159 concept of the Samson option that Israel actually uses for 191 00:11:09.159 --> 00:11:11.919 its own nuclear policy, where they understand that once they 192 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:13.840 unleash this weapon, it will harm them, but it will 193 00:11:13.879 --> 00:11:16.200 also harm their enemy in a way that's beneficial to 194 00:11:16.240 --> 00:11:20.360 them unleashing this strike. And Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament 195 00:11:20.360 --> 00:11:23.320 who's now in Switzerland sitting across the table from Jdevance, 196 00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:27.720 negotiating a very uneven settlement right now in favor of 197 00:11:27.759 --> 00:11:31.159 Iran and against the favor of the United States. Yesterday, Glibaff, 198 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:32.840 before he got on an airplane, said that he is 199 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:37.519 a post war economic commander, which again underscores this understanding 200 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:40.519 of economics for Iran, for the elites in Iran, that 201 00:11:40.679 --> 00:11:44.240 it's about the money. It's not about protecting their people, 202 00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:47.120 it's not about political institutions, it's not about these esoteric 203 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:51.000 philosophical concepts that we appreciate in the West. It's about 204 00:11:51.039 --> 00:11:55.399 surviving and enriching themselves and surviving to enjoy that enrichment 205 00:11:56.039 --> 00:11:57.799 and a lot of their money. Almost all of it 206 00:11:57.840 --> 00:11:59.960 is not in Iran. It's in Europe, it's in Hong Kong, 207 00:12:00.320 --> 00:12:03.159 it's around the world. It's in Canada. Billions of dollars, 208 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:06.480 and they've designed these systems to protect those dollars and 209 00:12:06.559 --> 00:12:09.519 protect themselves. And if you see, for example, Golibov's son 210 00:12:10.840 --> 00:12:13.559 has hundreds of millions of dollars in Iran and outside 211 00:12:13.559 --> 00:12:16.960 of Iran he posts on Instagram. Other IERGC commanders their 212 00:12:17.039 --> 00:12:20.080 children have yachts in the Mediterranean that on Instagram. These 213 00:12:20.080 --> 00:12:22.519 are not secrets. And there's even a website called I 214 00:12:22.519 --> 00:12:24.840 think like the Children of the Regime or something like 215 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:28.240 this where you can go see their daily lives, documented 216 00:12:28.799 --> 00:12:31.480 them spending just untold amounts of money. None of this 217 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:33.879 money from work they ever did. This is from either 218 00:12:34.320 --> 00:12:37.759 oil sales or other illicit activity. Right now, Iran has 219 00:12:37.799 --> 00:12:40.639 a special program where if you own a vehicle in Europe, 220 00:12:40.960 --> 00:12:42.960 you can import it into Iran and just pay a 221 00:12:43.000 --> 00:12:44.480 small tax on it, and now you can bring it 222 00:12:44.480 --> 00:12:46.759 into Iran, so you can buy it in Germany, for example, 223 00:12:47.039 --> 00:12:49.840 and then bring it to Iran. There's sanctions that are 224 00:12:49.879 --> 00:12:52.360 supposed to stop this from happening, but it's happening just 225 00:12:52.559 --> 00:12:55.799 totally allowed, right and even I think we've talked about 226 00:12:55.799 --> 00:12:59.320 it before. Companies like Audi for example, or BMW, they 227 00:12:59.360 --> 00:13:01.200 know about these action, so what they do is they 228 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:04.639 take the vehicle slightly apart and they'll put little pieces 229 00:13:04.679 --> 00:13:06.320 in between the doors and windows and things, and it 230 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:09.480 arrives in a box so it's not technically assembled in Europe, 231 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:12.240 and they'll bring it to Iran, take the little pieces out, 232 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:15.279 reattach everything, and now it's a vehicle that should not 233 00:13:15.279 --> 00:13:16.960 have been there in the first place. And it's not 234 00:13:17.000 --> 00:13:19.879 the average person doing this, it's the elites. And the 235 00:13:19.919 --> 00:13:22.159 reason I'm kind of pushing this elite's button is because 236 00:13:22.200 --> 00:13:24.840 these are the people in Switzerland right now negotiating with 237 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:29.519 the United States on a three hundred billion dollar cash infusion. Again, 238 00:13:29.799 --> 00:13:32.440 money is there objective. We are about to give them 239 00:13:32.440 --> 00:13:35.360 more of it. They use this money for very specific reasons, 240 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:37.200 like we mentioned corruption and things like this, but also 241 00:13:37.279 --> 00:13:40.519 to fund has Bullat. After we exited the Joint Comprehensive 242 00:13:40.519 --> 00:13:44.279 Plan of Action in twenty eighteen, the Hesbola funding levels 243 00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:46.080 went up from about two hundred and fifty million dollars 244 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:49.080 a year to a billion dollars a year until last December. 245 00:13:49.720 --> 00:13:52.639 We don't have twenty twenty six numbers yet, but there's 246 00:13:52.679 --> 00:13:54.399 going to be more of it. And we can see 247 00:13:54.440 --> 00:13:57.960 that this connection to has bullet remains relevant because that's 248 00:13:58.000 --> 00:14:00.320 why the negotiations were threatened this past seven days in 249 00:14:00.360 --> 00:14:02.679 the first place, is because Israel and Hezbola were fighting 250 00:14:02.679 --> 00:14:05.639 war in Lebanon, and Iran said, that's point number one 251 00:14:05.639 --> 00:14:08.279 on our fourteen point plan. You've got to stop fighting 252 00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:10.960 in Lebanon, Israel or else we're not going to negotiate. 253 00:14:11.000 --> 00:14:13.759 So they're telling us that this is important to them financially, 254 00:14:14.320 --> 00:14:17.279 for security reasons, and many other things in between, and 255 00:14:17.320 --> 00:14:19.039 they're not going to give up on this point. 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I don't want to reiterate all the great 299 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:18.360 things you guys said, but I think that and it's 300 00:16:18.360 --> 00:16:22.440 an article I did write in Engelsburg Ideas, which you 301 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:24.399 guys were referring to. I think the title was the 302 00:16:24.480 --> 00:16:26.080 art of a Bad Deal. I co wrote it with 303 00:16:26.120 --> 00:16:29.240 Sam Worby. But it's the idea of putting a carrot 304 00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:32.399 forward deal. And it's exactly what you're talking about, Jonathan. Like, so, 305 00:16:32.879 --> 00:16:35.120 I guess, first of all, the wisdom of that is 306 00:16:35.200 --> 00:16:38.799 kind of beyond me. We're actually putting carrots for it. 307 00:16:39.000 --> 00:16:41.879 Jd Vance, in a press interview, basically came out and 308 00:16:41.879 --> 00:16:43.559 said we're not doing that, and I think he's lying. 309 00:16:43.679 --> 00:16:45.639 I mean, you know, of course, the press never challenges 310 00:16:45.679 --> 00:16:48.399 him and anything. Because everything I talked to, all the 311 00:16:48.440 --> 00:16:50.960 oil analysts, everything, they said that Iran is going to 312 00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:55.240 get between the ability to sell oil and which is 313 00:16:55.240 --> 00:16:59.200 the waivers as well as some relief of some type 314 00:16:59.240 --> 00:17:01.480 of assets. You could be six to twenty billion right 315 00:17:01.519 --> 00:17:04.880 off the bat. Jd Vance is saying it's not gonna happen. 316 00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:07.119 But so you know, first of all, where's the truth 317 00:17:07.119 --> 00:17:09.160 on that? It looks like it actually is gonna happen. 318 00:17:09.440 --> 00:17:12.039 But again, the idea of putting carrots forward first just 319 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:14.079 doesn't make any sense. And it shows how desperate the 320 00:17:14.200 --> 00:17:16.039 United States is and I think that that is that 321 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:19.000 is certainly problematic. The other piece I would add, and 322 00:17:19.039 --> 00:17:21.240 you know, I'm there. You know, maybe Mick is too, 323 00:17:21.559 --> 00:17:25.119 and who knows the kind of the resident Israel whisperer, 324 00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:27.319 But it's the notion of Look, I don't care with 325 00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:29.759 you if you like bb net Nyahu or not. But 326 00:17:29.880 --> 00:17:33.160 the idea of linking this to Lebanon, the US allowing 327 00:17:33.200 --> 00:17:36.599 this is insane. You know, I live in northern Virginia 328 00:17:37.519 --> 00:17:40.359 right across the way is d C. If you know, 329 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:43.079 if I you know I live in Vienna. If I 330 00:17:43.079 --> 00:17:46.200 don't know, if McLain was getting pounded and was evacuated 331 00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:50.720 because someone's firing from d C, that would be a problem. 332 00:17:50.720 --> 00:17:52.480 And yet we have not managed to link this. So 333 00:17:52.519 --> 00:17:54.920 the Israelis do need to have kind of freedom of action. 334 00:17:55.519 --> 00:17:57.799 You know, you can you can debate whether or not 335 00:17:57.880 --> 00:17:59.920 they should have gone into southern lebanon the ground force. 336 00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:03.440 I think that's just unwise. But the idea of you know, 337 00:18:03.920 --> 00:18:07.039 removing that ability there to strike back his bullet, the 338 00:18:07.160 --> 00:18:10.680 US did Israel a terrible favor, and in fact, let's 339 00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:12.759 not forget his ball as a terrorist entity that killed 340 00:18:12.759 --> 00:18:16.519 more Americans up until nine to eleven than than Al Kaida. 341 00:18:16.559 --> 00:18:19.079 And so I think that was a that was an 342 00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:22.000 awful mistake overall. It's the notion of I think, Jonathan, 343 00:18:22.039 --> 00:18:24.319 you're right, Israel survived. Andy. I think you said this. 344 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:27.160 I mean it's not Israel Ron survived. I think both 345 00:18:27.480 --> 00:18:30.960 Jonathan Andy said that they controlled. They demonstrate they have 346 00:18:31.039 --> 00:18:33.359 the control of the straight ufore moves. That's what we're 347 00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:37.119 the MoU is just to to reopen the straight because 348 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:41.000 Trump panicked about the economy period. That's it. It's a 349 00:18:41.079 --> 00:18:44.000 it's a cash tran it's a transaction of funds for 350 00:18:44.079 --> 00:18:48.319 reopening the strait. So they demonstrated that again linking the 351 00:18:48.359 --> 00:18:51.319 linkage to Lebanon was a terrible diplomatic error by the 352 00:18:51.440 --> 00:18:52.039 United States. 353 00:18:53.240 --> 00:18:53.440 Uh. 354 00:18:53.480 --> 00:18:56.960 And then this inclusion of of some type of financial relief, 355 00:18:57.000 --> 00:18:59.559 which is Jonathan says, is so paramount to the to 356 00:18:59.559 --> 00:19:02.119 the regime, the Iranian regime. I'll finally, you know, it's 357 00:19:02.160 --> 00:19:04.240 something I stupidly have done every day on Twitter. I'm 358 00:19:04.240 --> 00:19:06.720 having fun doing it. I post how many days it's 359 00:19:06.759 --> 00:19:10.119 been each day since January thirteenth, and it's one hundred 360 00:19:10.119 --> 00:19:13.119 and fifty nine days right now since President Trump said 361 00:19:13.119 --> 00:19:15.559 help was on its way, and you know, and a 362 00:19:15.599 --> 00:19:18.680 lot of us were exercised about things like the botched 363 00:19:18.720 --> 00:19:21.839 Afghan withdrawal for good reason. We criticized the Biden administration. 364 00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:25.519 I certainly did, though. I work for a network ms now, 365 00:19:25.559 --> 00:19:28.519 which is super pro kind of Democrat and supports Biden. 366 00:19:28.559 --> 00:19:30.680 I was on there every day howling about it. I 367 00:19:30.799 --> 00:19:35.720 just was period this this is going to be seen 368 00:19:35.759 --> 00:19:38.720 as a betrayal of the Iranian people. Again, help is 369 00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:40.960 on its way. As protesters run the street. They stayed 370 00:19:40.960 --> 00:19:43.640 out there, they got slaughtered, and we are doing nothing 371 00:19:43.799 --> 00:19:46.279 to help them. And in fact, if you talk to anybody, 372 00:19:46.359 --> 00:19:49.319 the infusion of whatever it is, six billion, twelve billion, 373 00:19:49.359 --> 00:19:52.160 God forbid the three hundred billion that allows the regime 374 00:19:52.200 --> 00:19:53.079 to further survive. 375 00:19:54.119 --> 00:19:54.279 You know. 376 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:58.680 Bottom line is, I think we have done a great 377 00:19:58.759 --> 00:20:01.279 harm to the ability for people like all of us 378 00:20:01.599 --> 00:20:04.599 we are don't. We don't do this anymore. Maybe some 379 00:20:04.640 --> 00:20:06.799 of you guys do clandestinely. I certainly don't. I sit 380 00:20:06.839 --> 00:20:08.839 on my ass in northern Virginia. But the idea of 381 00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:11.519 going out into the field and working with indigenous groups 382 00:20:11.519 --> 00:20:15.160 and making promises, we don't look so good right now. 383 00:20:15.359 --> 00:20:16.720 And I think that's a you know, and if you 384 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:20.039 I was just at a conference in Sweden. Uh. There 385 00:20:20.119 --> 00:20:23.079 was a whole bunch of really really famous Iranian academics 386 00:20:23.119 --> 00:20:25.400 there anti regime. 387 00:20:25.640 --> 00:20:25.759 Uh. 388 00:20:25.920 --> 00:20:28.319 But to a t they said that in the beginning 389 00:20:29.000 --> 00:20:32.400 Iranian people welcomed the US and Israeli strikes. They do 390 00:20:32.480 --> 00:20:34.640 not do so anymore now. And there is the incredible 391 00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:37.960 feeling of betrayal right now. Again, you're gonna have the 392 00:20:38.000 --> 00:20:40.839 scene at some point, I hope not. Maybe it's politically 393 00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:43.039 suicidal for jd vance of him shaking the hands of 394 00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:48.359 Valeyboff The from the Iranian side, and and and Mick, 395 00:20:48.559 --> 00:20:50.839 I thought of you today, this that you know, and 396 00:20:50.920 --> 00:20:52.680 of course I freaked out. This is this is my 397 00:20:52.799 --> 00:20:56.680 not promise practicing stoicism. But when jd Vance at the 398 00:20:56.720 --> 00:20:59.960 beginning of the talks said to the cameras, I love Pakistan, 399 00:21:01.359 --> 00:21:04.079 there's nobody on the planet who served in Afghanistan who 400 00:21:04.079 --> 00:21:06.359 says those words I love Pakistan. And so I just 401 00:21:06.400 --> 00:21:08.119