WEBVTT 1 00:00:05.280 --> 00:00:08.800 With Laurent Seglement from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. 2 00:00:09.320 --> 00:00:11.240 This is redefining. 3 00:00:10.720 --> 00:00:15.880 Energy today, on redefining energy job. It's the beginning of 4 00:00:16.239 --> 00:00:19.800 Cup twenty nine. Good morning, Baku. 5 00:00:20.640 --> 00:00:22.920 And you've been to COPS in the past. 6 00:00:23.160 --> 00:00:23.640 I haven't. 7 00:00:23.920 --> 00:00:26.640 Oh yeah, I've been to Cops seven, Coup nine, Cop ten. 8 00:00:27.559 --> 00:00:30.519 And at the time it was party, party, party, I 9 00:00:30.559 --> 00:00:36.079 mean we got drunk every night, and you. 10 00:00:36.200 --> 00:00:37.880 Made lots of the missions because you had to fly 11 00:00:37.960 --> 00:00:39.600 to all these exotic places, I know. 12 00:00:39.920 --> 00:00:43.719 Yeah. Now, going a bit into the history of Bakhu, 13 00:00:44.240 --> 00:00:48.320 I learned that oil drilling started in Baku a decade 14 00:00:48.439 --> 00:00:52.479 before Connel Drake in Pennsylvania. Really okay, yeah, oh my god, 15 00:00:52.520 --> 00:00:56.560 didn't know that, okay. And in nineteen hundred Bakhu was 16 00:00:56.600 --> 00:00:58.399 producing more oil than the US. 17 00:00:58.840 --> 00:00:59.399 No that letter. 18 00:01:01.840 --> 00:01:06.439 And the king pins of the oil industry under the 19 00:01:06.519 --> 00:01:10.000 TZAR were the Nobel Brothers and now you have the 20 00:01:10.040 --> 00:01:13.799 Nobel Prize all from Sweden, right, okay, And they were 21 00:01:14.040 --> 00:01:17.799 in partnership with a company called Shell. Never heard of them. 22 00:01:18.280 --> 00:01:21.359 I never heard of them. And the Rothschild, oh all 23 00:01:21.400 --> 00:01:24.920 of them all right, Okay, that's funny, Lauren, Okay, I 24 00:01:25.040 --> 00:01:29.480 like that, and around that time that the employee was 25 00:01:29.560 --> 00:01:35.319 kind of restless, young Georgian who apparently created the strikes 26 00:01:35.319 --> 00:01:38.280 in their refinery. And his name was Joseph Stalin. 27 00:01:38.439 --> 00:01:40.560 All right, okay, that's funny. 28 00:01:40.640 --> 00:01:47.079 Before he became a gangster. Okay, enough talking about the past. 29 00:01:47.400 --> 00:01:50.439 We have a great guest who are very privileged. We 30 00:01:50.519 --> 00:01:54.799 have a lord. Great to have for those who don't 31 00:01:54.840 --> 00:01:58.920 know Low Turner. He was really instrumental in developing UK 32 00:01:59.040 --> 00:02:03.040 climate change policy. Absolutely, he was the first chair of 33 00:02:03.079 --> 00:02:06.799 the Climate Change Committee and at the same time he 34 00:02:06.959 --> 00:02:10.319 was head of the Financial Services Authority during the Financial crisis. 35 00:02:10.360 --> 00:02:13.319 So this guy has been taking on big challenges in 36 00:02:13.360 --> 00:02:13.919 his life. 37 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:17.400 Yeah, he's no Chair of the Energy Transition Commission. 38 00:02:17.080 --> 00:02:20.840 Which is a group of leading CEOs committed to achieving 39 00:02:20.879 --> 00:02:25.639 NETZIO by mid century. A very respected voice, both with 40 00:02:25.719 --> 00:02:30.039 an unjumented background and a finance background. We're welcoming l 41 00:02:30.240 --> 00:02:34.080 Turner to talk about cop exactly. Adair, welcome to the show. 42 00:02:34.479 --> 00:02:37.400 Thank you, great pleasure to be here, Darlie. 43 00:02:37.520 --> 00:02:40.360 We're going to talk today about cop but before we 44 00:02:40.400 --> 00:02:42.159 do that, I think you actually need to explain to 45 00:02:42.159 --> 00:02:43.159 people what cop is. 46 00:02:43.800 --> 00:02:48.560 The cops are Conferences of the parties, and they go 47 00:02:48.680 --> 00:02:52.120 back to the nineteen nineties when the governments of the 48 00:02:52.120 --> 00:02:57.960 world first agreed the unf Triple C at the UN 49 00:02:58.439 --> 00:03:03.840 Framework Convention on Climate Change, an agreement to take action 50 00:03:04.280 --> 00:03:09.000 together in a cooperative fashion to limit the impact of 51 00:03:09.240 --> 00:03:14.800 climate change, and that led to a set of annual 52 00:03:15.159 --> 00:03:20.520 usually annual conferences called the Conference of the Party's COP 53 00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:24.800 and they have gone on over the years, and some 54 00:03:24.840 --> 00:03:26.879 of them have been much more important than others. One 55 00:03:26.919 --> 00:03:31.240 of the most important was COP twenty one in Paris 56 00:03:31.280 --> 00:03:35.719 in December twenty fifteen, where for the first time all 57 00:03:35.800 --> 00:03:40.960 the parties at that COP actually agreed a temperature limit 58 00:03:41.039 --> 00:03:44.840 to limit global warming to well below two degrees centigrade 59 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:49.120 above pre industrial levels, and ideally to limit it to 60 00:03:49.199 --> 00:03:53.319 one point five degrees. Since Paris in twenty one, there's 61 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:55.520 been a series. There was also one in the UK 62 00:03:55.680 --> 00:03:58.840 in Glasgow in it was going to be actually in 63 00:03:58.840 --> 00:04:01.039 twenty twenty, but it got laid by COVID. It was 64 00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:04.319 in twenty twenty one. Then there's one been one in Egypt. 65 00:04:04.879 --> 00:04:08.240 Then there was one last year COP twenty eight run 66 00:04:08.280 --> 00:04:12.560 by the United Emirates in Dubai, and this year the 67 00:04:12.680 --> 00:04:17.399 COP is under the presidency. The organizers will be the 68 00:04:17.439 --> 00:04:19.600 Azerbaijanis and it is in Baku. 69 00:04:20.279 --> 00:04:22.600 How many people go to KOP and I guess they're 70 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:24.639 all not doing the same things, so you must have 71 00:04:24.759 --> 00:04:26.360 different concentrates, sir. 72 00:04:26.839 --> 00:04:31.720 Well. The absolute core of the COP is an inter 73 00:04:31.920 --> 00:04:36.519 governmental negotiation. And I forget how many countries are there, 74 00:04:36.680 --> 00:04:38.879 but it's getting up to one hundred and nineties. Basically 75 00:04:38.879 --> 00:04:41.680 all the countries in the world are there. They sent 76 00:04:41.759 --> 00:04:45.639 a cluster into what are called negotiating groups. Of the rich, 77 00:04:45.720 --> 00:04:50.720 developed countries, the poorer countries, the most vulnerable island states 78 00:04:51.120 --> 00:04:55.879 go into a negotiating group, and those are the countries 79 00:04:55.920 --> 00:04:57.879 all of the countries in the world and the negotiating 80 00:04:57.920 --> 00:05:01.279 groups which try to agree the things which are actually 81 00:05:01.399 --> 00:05:06.480 in the communicate the agreement at the end of COP 82 00:05:06.519 --> 00:05:09.839 and those can be agreements to set the targets, they 83 00:05:09.879 --> 00:05:15.800 can be agreements to have rules on how you report emissions. 84 00:05:16.079 --> 00:05:19.079 They have something called Article six which is under negotiation 85 00:05:19.399 --> 00:05:23.240 to how you can trade carbon emissions between countries. But 86 00:05:23.319 --> 00:05:26.240 there is this intergovernmental process and there is a part 87 00:05:26.279 --> 00:05:29.759 of a COP which has a whole load of diplomats 88 00:05:30.120 --> 00:05:34.480 from governments attempting to agree. What has tended to happen 89 00:05:34.519 --> 00:05:37.160 at COPS, and it has grown and grown over the years, 90 00:05:37.680 --> 00:05:42.279 is that around that actual inter governmental process there are 91 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:48.879 many people there from NGOs arguing for ambitious carbon action, 92 00:05:49.079 --> 00:05:53.120 and there are many people from businesses, in particular businesses 93 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:57.120 interested in the business of climate change mitigation. And there 94 00:05:57.160 --> 00:06:01.360 are financial institutions. So the thing up as both the 95 00:06:01.399 --> 00:06:05.720 inner core is a negotiation and attempt to progress the 96 00:06:05.759 --> 00:06:11.720 intergovernmental agreement, but round it a lot of people holding panels, 97 00:06:11.759 --> 00:06:15.839 holding discussions and indeed meeting and doing business deals. You know, 98 00:06:16.279 --> 00:06:21.160 people who are interested in developing gridlinks between one country 99 00:06:21.199 --> 00:06:23.439 and another, but people who are arguing for one point 100 00:06:23.480 --> 00:06:25.920 of view or another. And that's what it is. The 101 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:29.480 numbers vary. I think by COP twenty eight there are 102 00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:33.360 probably thirty thousand people there in Dubai. I believe it 103 00:06:33.399 --> 00:06:36.399 is less this year, but I don't have the precise figures. 104 00:06:36.639 --> 00:06:39.319 Yeah, I hope eighty five thousand in Dubai. 105 00:06:39.759 --> 00:06:42.360 It'll be much less this year because the bluntly there 106 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:46.120 aren't enough hotels or hostels in Baku to take anything 107 00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:50.000 like that number. They are huge events, true to say, 108 00:06:50.439 --> 00:06:52.959 they have a huge carbon footprint of all those people 109 00:06:53.000 --> 00:06:55.360 flying across the world to go to an event like that. 110 00:06:55.959 --> 00:06:59.040 I do worry myself as to whether it is justified 111 00:06:59.160 --> 00:07:02.560 to go. I haven't onto all cops and I did 112 00:07:02.560 --> 00:07:05.000 have a debate with myself about whether I should go 113 00:07:05.399 --> 00:07:09.000 to this one in Baku. From our Energy Transition Commission 114 00:07:09.079 --> 00:07:11.839 last year we had a significant number when to Dubai. 115 00:07:12.120 --> 00:07:15.000 We had much rather bigger numbers go to Glasgow when 116 00:07:15.040 --> 00:07:17.199 we could all go by train. This year there will 117 00:07:17.240 --> 00:07:19.720 be just two of us going there, but I think 118 00:07:19.720 --> 00:07:22.560 it is worthwhile. We will be trying to argue for 119 00:07:22.639 --> 00:07:25.120 some of the policies and actions that we believe in, 120 00:07:25.720 --> 00:07:30.000 and different cops have been varied in effectiveness in terms 121 00:07:30.040 --> 00:07:33.199 of how much we really progress the agenda and actually 122 00:07:33.240 --> 00:07:35.000 get decisions that make a difference. 123 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:38.160 So a dare what are your priorities then when you 124 00:07:38.199 --> 00:07:38.560 go there. 125 00:07:38.600 --> 00:07:41.920 In previous years we have had a close relationship with 126 00:07:42.079 --> 00:07:46.439 the COP presidency. We have actually had a semi official 127 00:07:46.519 --> 00:07:50.480 role or an advisory role in helping those COP presidencies 128 00:07:51.079 --> 00:07:57.240 work out what might happen to emissions if the commitments 129 00:07:57.279 --> 00:08:00.759 that they've managed to negotiate were st to And we've 130 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:03.279 been involved in that process. We do not have that 131 00:08:03.360 --> 00:08:09.319 relationship with the Azerbaijani COP presidency. We are, however, trying 132 00:08:09.319 --> 00:08:13.639 to get over many of our messages, above all about 133 00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:18.959 the technological possibility and priorities. Even if we can get 134 00:08:19.079 --> 00:08:24.079 very pessimistic about the progress of international agreement on climate 135 00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:27.199 change and the fact that emissions are still creeping up 136 00:08:27.240 --> 00:08:30.120 and have not reached a peak, even if we should 137 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:33.519 be worried that the climate is warming, it'll go over 138 00:08:33.639 --> 00:08:37.519 one point five degrees above pre industrial levels this year, 139 00:08:38.000 --> 00:08:40.919 and we are seeing large climate effects. The thing that 140 00:08:41.159 --> 00:08:45.759 actually makes one optimistic is that underlying that the technologies 141 00:08:45.799 --> 00:08:50.919 which help can help us dramatically reduce emissions, solar photo ortaics, 142 00:08:51.360 --> 00:08:57.879 wind turbines, long duration storage, extensive long distance grids, batteries, 143 00:08:58.000 --> 00:09:02.360 electric vehicles are progressed far faster than we used to 144 00:09:02.440 --> 00:09:06.480 dream as possible, and we will be making that argument 145 00:09:06.639 --> 00:09:10.000 and putting forward the argument for that. I will also 146 00:09:10.120 --> 00:09:15.879 be engaged in something called the Industrial Transition Accelerator discussions. 147 00:09:15.919 --> 00:09:21.039 The ITA was launched at COP twenty eight in Dubai 148 00:09:21.399 --> 00:09:24.720 last year. It is an official part of the COP 149 00:09:24.759 --> 00:09:28.679 process rolling forward to COP thirty in Brazil. And on 150 00:09:28.799 --> 00:09:31.879 to COP thirty one in Australia, and it is about 151 00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:35.840 a set of actions that can be taken to energize 152 00:09:36.240 --> 00:09:40.120 the decarbonization of hard to abate sectors of the economy 153 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:44.639 like steel and cement and aviation and shipping, where it 154 00:09:44.679 --> 00:09:47.639 would be great if we can have a global common 155 00:09:47.759 --> 00:09:49.559 vision of how to get there. So that will be 156 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:53.279 one other very specific topic where I will be involved 157 00:09:53.320 --> 00:09:56.519 in discussions and trying to make the arguments for rapid 158 00:09:56.559 --> 00:09:57.799 action in that area. 159 00:09:58.399 --> 00:10:00.600 What would you say to people who say, you know, 160 00:10:00.679 --> 00:10:04.799 the Old Cup movement kind of peaked between Paris and Glasgow. 161 00:10:05.480 --> 00:10:08.320 Glasgow it was the top of the ESG movement, and 162 00:10:08.360 --> 00:10:12.279 what all these initiative flowing from all the place. And 163 00:10:12.320 --> 00:10:14.840 now when you look at the situation of the world 164 00:10:14.879 --> 00:10:17.799 as it is right now, China they are doing their 165 00:10:17.840 --> 00:10:21.320 things and probably they're doing their thing faster than expected. 166 00:10:21.440 --> 00:10:25.200 The Trump just got reelected, so that doesn't board well. 167 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.799 Europe is like what six percent of the world emission, 168 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:31.080 so I don't know if if he counter as European. 169 00:10:31.240 --> 00:10:34.960 So the war in Ukraine, do you still think that 170 00:10:35.120 --> 00:10:37.559 COPP has much relevance that it used to have a 171 00:10:37.559 --> 00:10:38.440 few years ago? 172 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:42.600 At one level, I'm always amazed that the COP process 173 00:10:42.639 --> 00:10:48.039 produces anything. This is a conference of one hundred and 174 00:10:48.039 --> 00:10:51.799 eighty five hundred and ninety whatever it is countries, some 175 00:10:51.879 --> 00:10:54.960 of them are at war with each other, some of 176 00:10:55.000 --> 00:10:59.840 it which are locked in extreme political disagreement and tension, 177 00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:03.399 and they're trying to get a unanimous agreement on a 178 00:11:03.440 --> 00:11:07.080 common problem. At one level, you could say it's amazing 179 00:11:07.159 --> 00:11:11.480 we ever agree anything, and thank god we do agree 180 00:11:11.519 --> 00:11:14.120 because at least gives us a chance of at least 181 00:11:14.360 --> 00:11:18.720 mitigating somewhat this problem of climate change, which can only 182 00:11:18.759 --> 00:11:22.720 be solved if we managed to get some global agreement. 183 00:11:23.360 --> 00:11:27.559 I think you may be right that we are not 184 00:11:27.720 --> 00:11:30.919 in a great period in terms of achieving further progress. 185 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:34.840 I think actually COP twenty eight did manage to make progress. 186 00:11:34.879 --> 00:11:39.159 I think Glasgow did, Paris undoubtedly did. What is true 187 00:11:39.480 --> 00:11:44.840 is that there probably was a high point of the 188 00:11:44.919 --> 00:11:50.919 consensus across companies and the private sector in favor of 189 00:11:50.960 --> 00:11:56.000 action on climate change, which was widest somewhere around COP 190 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:59.960 twenty six in Glasgow and COP twenty eight in Dubai. 191 00:12:00.039 --> 00:12:04.639 And that consensus has, I think eroded above all in 192 00:12:04.679 --> 00:12:09.799 the States, and the States clearly has now a governing 193 00:12:09.840 --> 00:12:13.320 party with a newly elected president who will be in 194 00:12:13.399 --> 00:12:17.080 place by the end of January, most of whom actually 195 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:21.080 deny the existence of climate change, and those who don't 196 00:12:21.559 --> 00:12:24.399 still don't want to take major actions. That is a 197 00:12:24.440 --> 00:12:29.600 major setback. And even before that we had seen significant 198 00:12:29.600 --> 00:12:34.840 examples of for instance, US financial institutions getting much less 199 00:12:35.039 --> 00:12:38.440 ambitious in terms of what they said they would achieve, 200 00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:42.320 in part because they were getting under pressure from Republican 201 00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:47.360 run states not to pursue this quote esg agenda. So 202 00:12:47.480 --> 00:12:51.480 look compared with how I thought about the world when 203 00:12:51.519 --> 00:12:55.679 I went up to Glasgow in November twenty twenty one, 204 00:12:56.360 --> 00:13:01.399 I am much more worried about the ability of the 205 00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:05.360 world to agree action that can deal with what is 206 00:13:05.559 --> 00:13:09.480 a huge challenge for humanity. On the other hand, I 207 00:13:09.519 --> 00:13:12.360 can tell you that over those three years, the cost 208 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:15.200 of solar PV panels has come down another fifty percent, 209 00:13:15.559 --> 00:13:18.720 the cost of storage batteries has come down another twenty 210 00:13:18.759 --> 00:13:22.679 five percent. The cost of evs in China is now 211 00:13:22.879 --> 00:13:26.360 cheaper than internal combustion engines. So one lives with a 212 00:13:26.399 --> 00:13:33.000 disconnect between an increasing technological possibility that if we could 213 00:13:33.120 --> 00:13:38.240 only get really forceful international agreement, we would get to 214 00:13:38.279 --> 00:13:42.000 a net zero economy far more cheaply than we used 215 00:13:42.039 --> 00:13:47.039 to dare hope was possible, but the direction of change 216 00:13:47.159 --> 00:13:51.039 in the politics has not been favorable. Russia's invasion of 217 00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:57.480 Ukraine unleashed energy price increases. There weren't energy price increases 218 00:13:57.519 --> 00:14:01.879 of gas above all, but that a cost of living crisis, 219 00:14:01.919 --> 00:14:04.919 which made it much more politically difficult in Europe and 220 00:14:04.960 --> 00:14:09.440 the US to have support for strong action on climate change. 221 00:14:10.080 --> 00:14:16.480 The recovery from COVID plus the Ukraine War unleashed generalized inflation, 222 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:19.720 which has also driven up interest rates and the cost 223 00:14:19.759 --> 00:14:24.120 of capital, which has increased the cost of investing in 224 00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:28.399 the new technologies with which we'll build a zero carbon economy. 225 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:33.600 So those are undoubtedly policy and macroeconomic headwinds that we 226 00:14:33.679 --> 00:14:37.159 didn't face three years ago, which balance against the fact 227 00:14:37.559 --> 00:14:42.120 that the progress of the technologies has been quite as fast, 228 00:14:42.159 --> 00:14:45.639 indeed much faster than we had previously believed possible. 229 00:14:46.840 --> 00:14:49.279 Derek, can you talk a little bit about how you 230 00:14:49.320 --> 00:14:51.879 see China and the role of the gone for and 231 00:14:51.919 --> 00:14:54.200 where I think I'm coming from, And Laurana, I'm sure 232 00:14:54.240 --> 00:14:56.639 with a greet me, it's just what we're seeing is 233 00:14:56.759 --> 00:14:59.759 I mean, they seem to be leading the electrification of everything, 234 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:04.360 of transform electrications and the renewabilization of electrication. 235 00:15:04.639 --> 00:15:10.320 China is now absolutely central to whether the world limits 236 00:15:10.360 --> 00:15:13.679 global warming to one point seven or to where we 237 00:15:13.799 --> 00:15:18.360 end up. Absolutely central. It is responsible for around a 238 00:15:18.480 --> 00:15:22.399 third of all global emissions now about twelve gigatons of 239 00:15:22.519 --> 00:15:27.159 CO two out of thirty six gigatons or so, and 240 00:15:27.600 --> 00:15:31.600 it's emissions per capita are now very high. China has 241 00:15:31.679 --> 00:15:35.840 higher emissions per capita than Europe and much higher emissions 242 00:15:35.879 --> 00:15:39.519 co capita than the UK, and its emissions have not 243 00:15:39.639 --> 00:15:42.679 yet peaked. All of which you say, well, that's a problem. 244 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:47.279 On the other hand, let's be clear, China is absolutely 245 00:15:47.559 --> 00:15:52.399 leading the development of the technologies which will fix this problem. 246 00:15:52.879 --> 00:15:56.759 Anybody who thinks that China is taking other people's intellectual 247 00:15:56.799 --> 00:16:00.240 property and then commercialize itself is just living in out 248 00:16:00.240 --> 00:16:04.600 cuckoo land. The Chinese companies in these technologies are at 249 00:16:04.639 --> 00:16:09.759 the absolute cutting edge of technological development. The major solar 250 00:16:09.799 --> 00:16:15.200 PV companies Long and Trinner and Jinker. These are the 251 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:20.039 people who are driving up the efficiency and driving down 252 00:16:20.080 --> 00:16:23.840 the cost of solar PV panels. Year after year after year. 253 00:16:24.159 --> 00:16:28.159 Companies like Bid and Coatl are at the absolute cutting 254 00:16:28.279 --> 00:16:32.559 edge of new battery chemistries, which are giving us remarkable 255 00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:36.080 breakthroughs in terms of what's called energy density, how much 256 00:16:36.440 --> 00:16:39.639 energy you can pack into a kilogram or a liter 257 00:16:39.720 --> 00:16:43.360 of a battery, which then enables you to produce electric 258 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:47.240 vehicles with much longer range, and they are driving the 259 00:16:47.279 --> 00:16:50.759 development of evs. They're also driving the development of really 260 00:16:50.840 --> 00:16:54.440 really cheap storage batteries that enable you to have a 261 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.759 solar panel, put a battery next to it, and in 262 00:16:57.799 --> 00:17:00.799 the sunny parts of the world where shines pretty much 263 00:17:00.799 --> 00:17:04.160 every day, you've got a complete electricity solution because of 264 00:17:04.200 --> 00:17:07.680 the technologies being developed in China. So they are, at 265 00:17:07.680 --> 00:17:10.440 one level a huge part of the challenge, but they 266 00:17:10.440 --> 00:17:12.400 are a huge part of the solution, and they are 267 00:17:12.440 --> 00:17:18.000 deploying renewables at an extraordinary pace and way beyond the 268 00:17:18.039 --> 00:17:22.000 targets they've set. They still have an official target of 269 00:17:22.279 --> 00:17:28.559 achieving twelve hundred gigawatts of wind and solar in place 270 00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:32.039 by twenty thirty. They have already shot through that and 271 00:17:32.200 --> 00:17:35.559 people believe that they could have well over three thousand 272 00:17:35.680 --> 00:17:38.839 gigawatts in place by twenty thirty, and that, by the way, 273 00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:43.799 illustrates an interesting thing about how China plays its hand 274 00:17:44.559 --> 00:17:50.920 in global negotiations. It always over delivers what it promises. 275 00:17:51.000 --> 00:17:55.319 It doesn't promise as much as it should, given its 276 00:17:55.480 --> 00:17:59.359 role in emissions, but whatever it promises it over delivers. 277 00:17:59.799 --> 00:18:03.359 It has currently promised that it will quote peak emissions 278 00:18:03.759 --> 00:18:09.200 before twenty thirty. Everybody who is following China or ever 279 00:18:09.319 --> 00:18:12.279 he talks to Chinese policymakers know that they will peak 280 00:18:12.279 --> 00:18:14.920 emissions in about twenty twenty six and will be already 281 00:18:15.160 --> 00:18:18.000 quite a bit down by twenty thirty. But for whatever 282 00:18:18.039 --> 00:18:22.519 reason about the way they believe in playing international negotiations, 283 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:26.599 they're not willing to set that. There was a famous 284 00:18:26.599 --> 00:18:29.400 debate at Glasgow between the Americans and them, and the 285 00:18:29.440 --> 00:18:32.759 Americans saying, you have an ambition gap. You're not being 286 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:37.119 ambitious enough relative to your responsibilities on how rapidly you 287 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:39.680 woul bring down emissions, and the Chinese were applying to 288 00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:42.720 the Americans, Yeah, but you've got an implementation gap. You 289 00:18:42.839 --> 00:18:45.759 make these promises, but you don't deliver them. But look, 290 00:18:45.880 --> 00:18:50.519 China is a crucial It becomes even more crucial with 291 00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:53.920 Donald Trump as president of the US and actually the 292 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:58.960 relationship between Europe and China on climate change and the 293 00:18:59.039 --> 00:19:02.759 extent to which we can agree to work together on 294 00:19:02.839 --> 00:19:08.160 some aspects of this even if the US is not present, 295 00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:13.480 because Trump may pull the US completely out of this 296 00:19:13.599 --> 00:19:19.400 process and not attend COPS in future. That European China relationship, 297 00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:21.240 I think is going to be crucial, and what we 298 00:19:21.319 --> 00:19:25.559 need to be doing is basically, first of all, welcoming 299 00:19:25.920 --> 00:19:29.119 the technology progress they've made and lauding them for it 300 00:19:29.200 --> 00:19:33.359 and treating them with the respect that they deserve for 301 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:37.400 this extraordinary technological progress, and making a claim that we 302 00:19:37.400 --> 00:19:41.559 welcome that technology here in Europe through for instance, Chinese 303 00:19:41.599 --> 00:19:46.720 inward investors, while simultaneously challenging them and saying, guys, your 304 00:19:46.720 --> 00:19:49.720 emissions per capita are now higher than European. You're not 305 00:19:49.799 --> 00:19:52.720 bringing them down as fast as we are, and we've 306 00:19:52.720 --> 00:19:56.279 got to work together to bring both of our emissions 307 00:19:56.279 --> 00:19:59.519 down as fast as possible, and also work together to 308 00:19:59.599 --> 00:20:03.519 take finance and technology to parts of the world like 309 00:20:03.720 --> 00:20:07.599 Africa where the new technologies are so powerful that they 310 00:20:07.680 --> 00:20:12.160 really do provide Africa with an opportunity to build hugely 311 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:16.960 more extensive electricity systems and provide electricity to the mass 312 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:21.039 of African people almost entirely based on renewables. Given the costs, 313 00:20:21.079 --> 00:20:23.960 they don't need fossil fuels any longer. But to do that, 314 00:20:24.039 --> 00:20:28.039 we need low cost finance to flow to Africa. So 315 00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:32.920 finance from Europe and from China. Solar panels and batteries 316 00:20:32.920 --> 00:20:37.839 from China could revolutionize the situation in Africa, and we 317 00:20:37.880 --> 00:20:40.119 should be agreeing to work together to achieve that. 318 00:20:40.680 --> 00:20:43.079 But at the same time we put tariffs on the 319 00:20:43.359 --> 00:20:44.920 Chinese vs in Europe. 320 00:20:45.319 --> 00:20:48.000 We did, but those by the way, the UK has 321 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:50.079 not put tariffs, and as I understand it has no 322 00:20:50.160 --> 00:20:54.680 intention of putting tariffs on China evs. The UK has 323 00:20:54.680 --> 00:20:58.680 a commitment to drive towards electric vehicles, to ban the 324 00:20:58.720 --> 00:21:03.160 sale of internal bustion engines in the UK by twenty thirty, 325 00:21:03.200 --> 00:21:06.359 and I think our new government correctly realizes that it 326 00:21:06.400 --> 00:21:10.519 can only meet that if it welcomes a cheap, small 327 00:21:10.920 --> 00:21:15.279 Chinese evs to provide evs for the masses, rather than 328 00:21:15.759 --> 00:21:20.519 the beautiful but very expensive premium evs which the European 329 00:21:20.559 --> 00:21:25.440 automotive industry has concentrated in providing. Even in Europe. It's 330 00:21:25.480 --> 00:21:29.440 important to realize that the tariffs have been imposed. It 331 00:21:29.599 --> 00:21:33.039 was controversial. The Spanish Prime Minister, for instance, spoke against them, 332 00:21:33.440 --> 00:21:37.400 the CEO of Mercedes spoke against them, but there was 333 00:21:37.519 --> 00:21:40.559 an overall majority consensus for them. But they have not 334 00:21:40.759 --> 00:21:45.240 been set at the level of the US Chinese EV tariffs, 335 00:21:45.240 --> 00:21:47.680 which were just set at one hundred percent, a figure 336 00:21:47.720 --> 00:21:50.720 just plucked out of the air, and with the deliberate 337 00:21:50.720 --> 00:21:55.119 design of making sure that almost no Chinese evs go 338 00:21:55.240 --> 00:22:00.519 into the US. The European ones were based on nownalysis, 339 00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:05.000 which was attempting to be somewhat in line with WTO rules, 340 00:22:05.359 --> 00:22:10.119 looking at what level of subsidy did we think that 341 00:22:10.440 --> 00:22:14.440 current Chinese operators were receiving from the Chinese government, And 342 00:22:14.480 --> 00:22:18.799 for instance, it's set a differential rate for different companies 343 00:22:18.799 --> 00:22:21.519 from China according to whether they were private companies or 344 00:22:21.759 --> 00:22:24.880 state owned companies. Now I still think those towers were 345 00:22:24.880 --> 00:22:27.759 set too high, but at the level they've been set, 346 00:22:28.519 --> 00:22:32.799 they will not be an absolute barrier to Chinese evs 347 00:22:32.880 --> 00:22:36.240 coming into Europe, and I hope we will see excellent 348 00:22:36.319 --> 00:22:39.880 Chinese coming evs coming into Europe as well as into 349 00:22:40.079 --> 00:22:43.079 the UK. And I think I hope we will also 350 00:22:43.160 --> 00:22:47.839 see excellent Chinese automative manufacturers, such as for instance, BYD 351 00:22:48.359 --> 00:22:53.240 opening factories in the UK and in Europe. So yes, 352 00:22:53.319 --> 00:22:56.640 there has been pushed back in Europe. But I think Europe, 353 00:22:56.680 --> 00:23:01.799 in its attempts to develop domestic supply chains, is going 354 00:23:01.839 --> 00:23:04.640 to get a much more balanced policy mix of saying 355 00:23:05.119 --> 00:23:09.400 we want the benefit of Chinese cost and Chinese technology, 356 00:23:09.440 --> 00:23:11.759 but yeah, we do want some of the jobs and 357 00:23:11.839 --> 00:23:14.480 value added in Europe, and I think they're trying to 358 00:23:14.839 --> 00:23:19.480 hit a balance there Whereas I'm afraid the US policy 359 00:23:20.359 --> 00:23:23.880 is as it is perceived in China and attempt to 360 00:23:24.039 --> 00:23:27.000 just as the Chinese put it, keep China down and 361 00:23:27.160 --> 00:23:30.200 deny them economic opportunity. And I'm sure it will come 362 00:23:30.240 --> 00:23:32.960 that under Donald Trump, unfortunately, and. 363 00:23:33.039 --> 00:23:35.640 The fine that question good cop or bad cop. 364 00:23:36.119 --> 00:23:40.000 I don't have greater expectations for it. I hope that 365 00:23:40.039 --> 00:23:42.119 the Memento will be achieved, and I think some of 366 00:23:42.160 --> 00:23:45.000 the biggest areas of momentum may be away from the 367 00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:49.279 debate about finance, away from the debate about targets. I 368 00:23:49.319 --> 00:23:51.359 don't expect to see a big step forward in the 369 00:23:52.039 --> 00:23:55.839 overall big you know, communicate figures, but some of the 370 00:23:55.880 --> 00:23:58.880 debates and the targets which people are proposing on. Let's 371 00:23:58.960 --> 00:24:02.960 all agree that the world needs much more long duration storage. 372 00:24:03.440 --> 00:24:05.759 Let's all agree that the world is going to need 373 00:24:05.960 --> 00:24:10.759 much more long distance grids and transmission lines. Those declarative 374 00:24:10.839 --> 00:24:16.519 statements actually do energize a private investment behind the technologies 375 00:24:16.559 --> 00:24:19.240 that we need. So if I'm looking for something good 376 00:24:19.359 --> 00:24:22.000 out of COP, I think it's probably more likely to 377 00:24:22.039 --> 00:24:26.319 come in those rather specific areas rather than the more 378 00:24:26.519 --> 00:24:29.960 political and policy agreement areas where I think we'll see 379 00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:31.839 only very slow propose are. 380 00:24:31.920 --> 00:24:33.519 Thank you so much for coming on the show. 381 00:24:34.559 --> 00:24:36.720 Thank you very much, Thank you, thank you very much. 382 00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:41.119 So on this is over to you. You've been a cop, 383 00:24:41.920 --> 00:24:44.799 you know ed very well. I'd like to hear your 384 00:24:44.839 --> 00:24:46.599 thoughts on COP going forward. 385 00:24:46.960 --> 00:24:50.839 Okay, so I'm going to rant. That's what I'm good at. 386 00:24:51.440 --> 00:24:54.160 On one hand, a world with scups is always better 387 00:24:54.240 --> 00:24:58.039 than the world without COP. It's good that the Head 388 00:24:58.039 --> 00:25:01.200 of States this a week per year we are gathered 389 00:25:01.240 --> 00:25:05.440 together and concentrate on the climate. Now, of course, this year, 390 00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:09.519 literally nobody's going to be there. Seizing thing's not going 391 00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:11.759 to be there, Muddy is not going to be there, 392 00:25:12.319 --> 00:25:17.119 Marcron shirts Biden. Of course, so you really wonder what's 393 00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:19.240 the point once you remove the head of states. And now, 394 00:25:19.240 --> 00:25:21.920 of course you get all those debates of our Article six, 395 00:25:22.400 --> 00:25:26.240 which really nobody cares about except a few diplomat experts, 396 00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:30.200 and you managed to bring a lot of the countries 397 00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:34.000 because we the West are supposed to feel bad about 398 00:25:34.119 --> 00:25:38.039 the historic responsibilities, so we all out money finances called 399 00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:40.960 the finance cup. So how we're going to finance the 400 00:25:41.079 --> 00:25:44.160 energy transition in developing countries? Well, I think China has 401 00:25:44.160 --> 00:25:47.079