Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks.
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Speaker 1: Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno.
Speaker 2: Innes Sea Hockey Live. It's once again time. In fact,
it is the last time. I believe. This is our
thirty second team preview. Victor, we're getting over the finish line.
You appear to not be a sweating exhausted. I haven't
seen you collapse yet. You seem to still be hydrated.
How you doing today?
Speaker 1: I am a hologram of myself because I'm so exhausted,
so I'm glad it looks like I'm okay. But yeah,
this has been a marathon. It's a labor of love.
We love doing it, but it is a lot going
through all thirty two teams, and we are happy to
be done, and we'll be doing some catch up stuff after.
No worries. I know that some teams, some players moved
around teams and it's all good. We'll get to that.
But yeah, it's awesome to put a bow on this.
And none, no, no, than your team Jesse Washington Capitals.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're doing Yeah, I'm doing good Man. And did
I mention he's ep ring sides Victor Nuno. I don't
know if I did, and I should because you have
written about I don't know if you've written about a
ton of capitals, but like a lot of the guys
we talked about, you've written good articles on people how
to subscribe and go read those things. But yeah, man,
I'm good, I'm good. I'm it's feeling good to be
through this series. But you know what it never stops
for is Victor, because we just want to start the conversation.
We want others to continue it. We want people to
go back and forth on it, and they can do
that in our discord, which you can get a invite
to if you just hit us up. It's free. We're
not really gay keepers. We won't ask you trivia questions.
There'll be no major impediments to your being able to join,
other than your a bill to either reach us on
x at fan Hockey Life at Victor Nuno twelve or
compose an electronic mail to Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail
dot com. Those are the only two ways. I don't
know if you could find us, if you can catch
Victor on the street. Have you ever seen Victor? If
you don't know what Victor looks like, picture Albert Pooholtz.
That is exactly what Victor looks like. If you know
the baseball player Albert Pooholds, if you see Albert Pooholtz
on the street, odds are Albert Pooholtz is very famous.
You're probably not going to see him, but you might
be looking at Victor Nuno Victor. Is that the way
that I should introduce you? And what else is going
on in the discord and in Fantasy Hockey Life world.
Speaker 1: I'll take it. I don't know that I would agree
with that, but I'm happy to look like or resemble
in any way Albert Pooholds. I don't. I'm sure that
I cannot hit a baseball like he can or anywhere
close to that, but I'm happy for that comparison. No,
there's a lot of great stuff going on Fantasy Hockey
Life Discord. We're obviously getting ready for the season, lots
of lee starting, We're doing the tidy dispersal drafts and
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There's all kinds of goodies. If you want to support
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Speaker 2: You jarned right there is and right after this we're
going to come back and we're going to talk about
the Washington Capitals. Victor. It's time for the Washington Capitals.
And unlike all the other thirty one team previews, this
was just going to be you and me, not because
of any special expertise, but frankly because I'm exhausted and
I like talking about the Capitals anyway, you know what,
I just want to say this. I know I don't
hide the fact that the Washington Capitals of the team
I follow most closely. I love watching Locker and jb it,
but I think I can maintain a certain impartiality slash
critical opinion toward the Washington Capitals. And it starts with
the team preview statement. I don't know what to do
with the Washington Capital season last year. I looked it up.
I actually subscribed to a month of Statthead to be
able to dwell and wallow in some of these stats.
A negative thirty seven goal differential last year victory for
the Capitals. On the season, they had six goals or
more in eleven contests. There has been no team with
a negative thirty goal differential to make the playoffs since
nineteen ninety five until last year, and the Caps were
thirty seven underwater. That's just dogg on insane. And we
all know the NHL lets everybody in the playoffs. All
you have to do is really show up and win
a couple games and you're in the playoffs. It was
unreasonable that the Capitals made it in Nobody makes it
in with that type of stat I joked in the
playoffs that it was pretty impressive also for the Hershey
Bears to make both the NHL Playoffs and win the
Calder Cup in the same year, because it felt like
there were some JV guys coming in. As the playoffs
went along, the Capitals were reaching into that depth. It
was one of those years where you felt following the
team like, would it have been better just to have
missed the playoffs and maybe get a chance at celebrating
the demodof what one of those other elite picks, maybe
just get lucky instead of being meet for the Rangers
in the first round. I don't know, but it definitely
is a turning of the calendar for the Capitals. They
are not They are not tanking, There's no doubt about that.
Because we're going to talk about some of the additions,
but some of the guys who are going away who
definitely were long in the tooth or it's it's those days,
Nick Bastrom, I think it's officially unofficially done. Tg Oshi,
I know we're going to talk about later. I don't
think he's ever gonna put on a sweater for the
Caps again, except except in ceremonies on the theoretical starting
goalie of the last couple of years. Starcy Kemper has gone.
Longtime defenseman Nick Jensen has gone. Max Pacioretti has not resigned.
I don't know that Max Pacioretti, I think is running
on fumes. I don't think he's coming back to the Caps.
And then even during the season, if Ganny kuznets Off,
Anthony Mantha, Joel Edmondson all departed, most of the elite
team that won the Stanley Cup has now basically moved
on there aside from a couple of the stalwarts we're
going to talk about, but a lot of the guys
who've played a ton of minutes are gone. I think
in one sentence, Victor, I'm going to try to do
this in one sentence, Apps takes step back all that's
going to be my one sentence preview of what the
Caps are going to be. What do you think if
you had to someone up this is a pop quiz.
I wrote it up here though, how would you sum
up the Capitals the seasons? Last season?
Speaker 1: To come Caps help OV get record. That's it. That's
what they did last year. That's what they're doing. This year.
That's what I think. I do think they made a
little bit of potential improvement. Some of them obviously, or
some good players that aren't coming back as you mentioned,
or might not be coming back, but they brought in
some interesting players that could work out well. We've seen
PLD have some good play, some relevance. We've seen Mangiapani
score a fair number of goals, and Strom has been
a revelation for them, so he could continue. Connor McMichael
arguably took a step forward, a big step forward. There's
some interest there. Hendrix Lapierre looks like the player. So
they don't have the best prospect pool, but they have
some guys that have come along. Actually, when I was
talking with Shane molloy at the draft, he was telling
me how the capital is E mean, I think so.
But they are one of the best teams at drafting
in terms of getting NHL games out of players, So
they're actually really good from that standpoint. Maybe they're not
the most exciting players or the most fantasy relevant players,
but they are good at drafting and getting guys to play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're absolutely right, Victor. We every year we ranked
this system like thirtieth or something like that, and yet
multiple calder Cups, a whole lot of games, and they
have been drafting for upside the last couple of years.
We're going to talk about some of those guys, and
some of those guys are making the NHL and they
have some amazing prospects to keep your eye on prospect
When we talk about in the dig I'm like, Wow,
this is one of the better keep your eye on
prospects I feel like we talk about in this series.
But yeah, absolutely, Victor. But I don't know some old
random guy who were going to start talking about. In
terms of the players on this team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been a long time that Alexovechkin has been
the best player on the team, and he arguably is
not now, but we're still going to start with him
for old time sake. And his zero point three to
nine goals per game last season twenty three, three, twenty
four were his worst since the twenty ten to eleven season,
that is a long time ago, twelve seasons ago. And
he scored thirty two goals and seventy nine games play
last season. That's a really good season for a lot
of people, but it was his down season. Despite that,
down season, The soon to be thirty nine year old
is just forty one goals away from Gretzky's all time record.
You have to imagine the Caps are going to do
everything they can to help him break it. Forty one
doesn't seem that long, considering he's done well over that
many times. So Jesse, do you think he's going to
get forty one this season? And what else is he
going to be able to do along with that? Is
he going to get past the sixty seven point pace
that he had last season, which was also the lowest
mark that he has had in terms of a point
pace in his entire career.
Speaker 2: Pic sure you remember in Kobe's last season, Kobe Bryant
went for seventy points near the end of his career,
and he was basically a sink on the Lakers at
that point, but he made there. At Ovechkin's got a
little more juice left, I think than Kobe did then.
But I think it is going to be one of
those things where they are going to do everything to
get Obi the puck, to get him to get that record.
And I was saying last year or the year before,
I didn't know if he would get to the record.
Now I actually think he will and I think he
may well get it this year. The only question really
is health because Ovechkin so s thirty over the years.
Actually actually he only missed three games, but it felt
like there were some injury things he was dealing with
more than Ovechkin normally does. So yeah, we'll see, but
I think I'm in favor of he might just cross
that record this year. And you talk about selling out games,
that is going to be that is going to be amazing,
is going to keep people glued if we get there,
people glued into hockey in April watching Capitals games. Let's
talk about the guy who actually led the team in
scoring last year. In the last twenty years, there have
been four players that led the team in scoring, and
they're exactly the ones you would think they did. And
I'm talking about individual season scoring. Ovechkin, Backstrom obvious who's
nets off and John Carlson probably the next two guesses
you would have had in terms of guys that had
done that, all heroes of that twenty eighteen Cup team.
The change into the guard in some ways indicated by
the fact that Dylan Strom broke into that group. So
he is the leading scorer on the team sixty seven
points with twenty seven goals forty assists. Obviously, that was
his career high by just a couple over the prior year.
He's simply been a great addition to this offense. He's
just flourished with the Capitals, just as the experienced center
depth was melting way. He fit in like a glove.
Eleven of Ovi's goals last year came on Strom assists
about a third of them. That was certainly part of
the process there. The bash with Strom is minimal. If
you're looking from a fantasy perspective, that is a serious flaw.
Strom is not a guy, you know. You talk about
sixty seven guy who played all eighty two games, and
he only takes two shots a game. That's not as
valuable as you would hope for. And if you hadn't,
if you still somehow have it in your mind that
the Capitals have an above average power play, they don't.
It is a little bit better last year, but we're
still talking a little bit in the bottom half of
a power play right now. I don't know. He is
actually the best face off guy of the returning players,
a way above fifty percent on face off. If you're
playing in that type of a league, that's good. And
only five million for a power play one line, one
centerman who's going to be able to play with Olvatchkin
in the salary league is nice. But Victor, I don't know.
I have been pleased with strong A certainly limitations to
his game. I don't see that role changing last year.
I really don't see the production changing a ton. What
do you think of this guy on the Caps.
Speaker 1: I think he's definitely arguably their best player, as you mentioned,
and he has gotten much better defensively. That has never
been his strong suit. He's never been a defensive star
war but I think he has been and has needed
to be been able to carry the mail at both ends,
and that has happened, and I think has really helped
his point numbers because he's better than average now defensively
and arguably quite good, and so he's able to get
a little bit more ice time, and I think that's
that's always key. We talk about that for players. He
had the most averageized time he's ever had last season,
so that trickles into a little bit more points. I
am a little bit worried too about the assists. As
you mentioned, OVI obviously is turnding down, but there's I
think there's going to be more excitement this season than
ever to get him that record. Only being forty one
away last season seemed like a slog and it seemed
like there was a really like there was obviously still
a lot of help to try to and encouragement to
try to get there, but it wasn't gonna happen. Last season.
We knew that that was too far away. But this season,
I think with all the fanfare and likelihood that it
could happen, I think there'll be more help there. So
I'm a little bit worried about the assist but I
think he can get there, and I think that he's
had consistently sixty seven, sixty six, sixty seven points. The
shooting percentage was a little bit hot last season, and
so that makes you a little bit worried, but the
other indicators I think are pretty much in line. He
wasn't cooking hot on PDO or power play IPP or
any of the other things that we look at. So
I think he can be around seventy points again, and
especially because I do think there's a little bit more
help around him. Even though we don't know exactly how
things are going to go for PLD. But there's a
little bit more scoring help too, with guys like Manjia Pani,
who they didn't really have a whole lot of that
in the past. I think that there's a little bit
more surrounding talent which should help him stay in that
seventy point range. It seemed like he was an island
not there before. So I'm pretty optimistic on stro actually,
and I think that he could. He'd be definitely someone
to be of interest, and I think it's a little
less confusing this year too, with Backstrom pretty clearly out
of the way. I think last couple of seasons there
was still like some hope and some lack of clarity
on who was exactly the guy. And I think it's
pretty clearly him at this point, So that's good. Let's
talk about the guy we've referenced a couple of times now,
Pierre Luke Dubois. We talked about him in the LA
episode and his dreadful forty point season we talked about
with We talked about how he seems really disinterested at
the time, and a lot of that lack of production
was on him, but some of it was on the Kings,
and obviously the Capitals trade for him and they trade
their starting goalie, so it was pretty big piece they
take on a big cap hit. There's certainly there you
would imagine have to be a pretty significant role for
him with that kind of cap hit, and the Caps,
unlike the Kings, don't really have a couple of two
or three really strong centers to put in front of him.
It's basically just Strom. I can't imagine he's not playing
second line minutes, so his minutes should go up back
to the eighteen point range, I would imagine. But how
do you think this season's going to go for PLD?
Do you think he can get past that sixty point
pace and get all that bash that we've grown to
know and love.
Speaker 2: What the heck with PLD? Talk about having a complete
wild card coming on your team. Pierre Luteois could be excellence,
he could be he could be disappointment. There's a reason
there was even a reason that there was talk about
Pod getting bought out or something by the Kings before
this all happened. But luckily one team traded their cap
anchor for another team's cap anchor. Will hope for the best.
I did read one thing that I found fascinating on
the Great NB website, and that was that apparently Pierre
Lukedabla loves playing with Russians, back to the time that
he played with our Timmy Pineren on Columbus. He loves
the style of game that some of those Russian guys had.
So why don't we get him out there with Ovi
and Morosnatchenko and just see what happens. What the heck,
I don't know if they can play those areas of wings,
but that's what it takes to unlock Peeld. Let's try everything,
because when this guy's activated, he is a great fantasy
player and he can be very useful for fantasy. If
you ask me to predict, I would say the chances
are better that he will be a disappointment, then he
will be a thrill ride for the Capitals. But hope
springs eternal. Next up, Victor, we're going to talk about
Tommy Wilson. It has been three years and six months
since Tom Wilson's last suspension. I think it should be
like one of those signs how many days it's been
since the last accident in a workplace. Three years and
six months since Tom Wilson's life suspension. So I just
assume everybody is happy with him now and loves him,
including Victor. But here's the deal with Tom Wilson. His
odometer rolled over to thirty last spring, A seven year
extension is kicking in this year, and with this physical
game that he plays, the mileage is there. I'm worried
about a six point five million dollars hit, even though
not unreasonable for a guy who's been talked about potentially
as a future captain for this team. When Ovechkin finally goes,
he remains somewhat productive, but there has been declined in
his stats. If you haven't noticed, his hitting rate, which
has been the centerpiece of Tom Wilson's game, has actually
declined over the years. He threw two hundred and twenty
eight last year, so you might not realize it, but
the rate per minute, if you look at the rate
per minute of hits that he's had throughout his career
the last four years are dead at the bottom, and
his mid twenty ten spree of violence featured about twice
the raid of hits that he's getting out there now.
He's just playing more minutes He put up career highs
in blocks and shots last year, which was interesting that
maybe that's becoming part of his game, But his scoring
has slumped under half a point per game for the
first time since the twenty seventeen eighteen Cup year. Victor,
why is Tom Wilson your favorite hockey player? And will
you be joining me in picking him for this year's
Lady Bing Trophy?
Speaker 1: Those are both gaslighting questions, so I'm just going to
move past them. But no, I think that he is.
His value obviously always came from the really strong priffs,
but what made him more even more interesting was that
he could get over a fifty point pace. But he
didn't do that last season, and it seems like that
might be in the past because those the team around him,
the context around him, as we've been alluding to, has
taken a real nose dive, and so I'm not really
sure how many points there are to go around. He
has still been getting what you would want in terms
of the best deployment on the team. He is still
playing with OVI most of the time. He is playing
with their chop line center fair amount, which is Dylan Strom.
So you would imagine there's still the good opportunity in
terms of what he can muster out of that. He's
never had the most power play time, but he actually
has had the second He had the second most amount
of power play time last season and didn't do a
ton with it. And power play points actually boosted his
point pace up to thirty nine point pace, which is
pretty sad. If he didn't have those, if he had
more of the average power play points that he had previously,
he would have been more like a thirty four point pace.
It would have been even more disappointing. So that's I
think this idea that Wilson is someone who can get
pretty decent amount of points with all those priffs is
probably we need to change our perspective because I don't
see him getting back to those levels. I think he's
going to continue to have pretty good prifs, as you mentioned,
a little trend down and it hits per sixty, but
the overall value of his is going to change a
little bit. There's still be worth it, still be a
valuable piece someone that you can especially in categories leagues
where you can rely on him to stuff those categories,
and really good walks for forward as well that actually
went up quite a bit, still valuable, but not exactly
the same. So I think we have to change our
perspective a little bit on Wilson. All right, Jesse, I'm
going to give you a little bit of a points
pick him here, So Andrew Manjiapani, the new guy coming
into town, and Sunny Milano who's been there for a
while now. And Manjiapani's point five to three points per
game would have been third on the Capitols. That's that
would be pretty nice. He had forty three and forty
four point pace in his last two seasons in Calgary.
Previously he had a fifty five point pace, so that
was all pretty exciting if you could get back to
that number, but who knows about that. He did have
the thirty five goals in twenty twenty one twenty two,
which was pretty pretty outstanding. Milano, for his part, He's
average of forty point pace the last three seasons with Anaheim,
where he had quite a bit more time on ice,
and the last two with the Capitals, where he had
a little bit less. So, Jesse, who are you taking here?
I think I'm.
Speaker 2: Taking manchia Pani. That's a very interesting guy to be
arriving on your team, and even though his contract expiring
this year, it's actually three times that of Milano, so
one would expect he probably will get some more opportunities
there of a similar age. So I think the bread
Eater is my man here, just to see if he
can recapture some of the glory that he had in
better years in Calgary. Certainly, his context in Calgary last
year was anything but ideal, as Calgary had a bit
of a down year. So let's see what happens with him.
I have expectations within reason, but I'd be very pleased
with a fifty point season out of Monte Pani if
I could get him. It's something like that value one
more of these Pickham's Victor. We've got Alexi Protas, We've
got Hendrik Slapierre. Protas has far more NHL games now
one hundred and sixty nine versus fifty seven for la Pierre.
He's a year older than Hendrix, not quite as long
as you would think. It feels like Protass has been
around a bit longer. Lapier's scoring rate is far better,
and he's got yet more championship experience with Hershey. Crucially,
Lapierre's projection as at least a centerman possibly. I feel
like there's a greater likelihood that Lapierre has a significant
role on the third line or even potentially the second line,
then that Protas could get up to those areas. I
see him more with his physicality down on that fourth line.
So for fantasy purposes, not so great and neither are
big on Bash. So Protash is a guy more on
my distant watch list, while Lapierre, I think, is a
guy who's getting ready to break in and be a
significant member of these capitals, probably one of the better
hopes for the future that they developed in and really
was a high upside swing. What do you think, Victor
Protash or Lapierre.
Speaker 1: I'm definitely going to go Lapierre for me. I think
that there are a couple of reasons for that. One
of the fun fun facts here is that the capital's
actually drafted Alexa Protest his little brother Bill yet Protest.
That was pretty fun. He's also huge, just like Alexa,
he's six foot four. They're both Bella Russian. One thing
that might be a little bit more interesting about the
brother is that he's actually really young for this draft year,
and he produced in the USHL. So keep an eye
on that as he develops, and being in part of
the same organization and have a big brother to help
you through some of that, navigate through some of that
could be really good for him. But in terms of Alexey,
I agree with you. I think he's more just that
he's a really good, solid bottom six forward who can
protect the puck and throw some hits that kind of stuff.
But I'm not sure that he's ever going to be
a big score to this state. His career point pace
is twenty six and that's what I expect of him,
maybe chip in five to maybe ten on a good
year goals and the assists are probably just overdouble that,
so maybe he can get twenty twenty five assists, So
pretty low point totals, I would say there for alex Say,
that's not really going to be his bread and butter.
And when you look at his underlyings, he's pretty average
defensively and actual goals outweigh his expected scoring. So that's
never what you want to see in terms of someone
maybe deserving a little bit more. On the other hand, Lapierre,
he now he's someone who actually has the opposite and
so he had quite a bit more expected goals and
he converted on last season, and it was his first
full season fifty one. He didn't play all the games,
with fifty one games thirty five point pace, so he
actually and he actually deserved a little bit more scoring
than that. Potentially there's more upside there. His defensive game
is a little bit worse, so getting the amount of
time on ice is going to be the issue. But
I think there's more upside with Lapierre, and I think
that it's not clear whether he'll get there, but I
think he has a little bit more potential. So he's
the one that I would take there. Let's go to
Conor McMichael, the last guy that we're going to talk about,
and yeah, he finally had the big breakout season that
we were hoping for in terms of the number of
games played. He played eighty games and that was a lot.
His thirty four point pace may not seem that inspiring,
but he his ice time grew tremendously. He had just
on her hair, sixteen minutes fifteen fifty nine average time
on ice. His defensive impacts were not great, but maybe
that was partially the team effect around him. He also
converted on a more goals than expected, so maybe there's
some regression there. But Jesse, what do you think about McMichael.
Is he going to stay under that forty point pace
or do you think he can climb over that maybe
all the way up to around fifty.
Speaker 2: I think fifty is within range. He's continued to mature.
He seems to be appropriate for this level. If you're
expecting to start out of this guy, I think you're
making a bit of a mistake. But especially he's been
able to play some on the wing. That's probably what
he's going to need to be able to do. And
there's certainly openings in the Caps top six, so I
think that's very much within range for him, but not
necessarily a star upside here. And I think you had
next Victor updates on Max Patcher ready Tjoshi. I really
don't see one of them coming to pass TJ battling
with back problems. The team has only a little bit
of cap and it, frankly, I think it unfortunately. Some
of the moves that they made makes me think that
they're expecting TJ to be on the LTIR so that
they have the flexibility to do some of the things
this year. But out of respect to him and he
is an expiring contract year. This year they will see
what he is able to do. Yeah, and Max Patcheria,
I think is none. Do you have more optimism that
one of these two guys is going to be rocking
the Red this year?
Speaker 1: I'm not really I don't. I haven't followed it as closely.
I think that TJ is the kind of guy who
is gonna want to play no matter what, even when
his body isn't cooperating. So I think he's gonna try
do everything he can to, but I'm not sure that
it's going to work. And Patriretti, on the other hand,
I don't know. That's been more of a mystery and
I'm not really sure what's going to happen there. But
he also seems like he hasn't been anywhere near himself
the last several seasons, so I'm not sure that there's
any reason for optimism there. But I think it's the
kind of thing where maybe I think Patriretti is someone
that I'd be more interested in stashing and seeing if
there's any hope later, because he's someone who if he's
out there, he's probably going to be in a shooters
role and could get some power play time and score
some goals. So that's but I'm not really optimistic on
either of them, and that would probably just be like
a really like late play that you might do just
to stash someone and see what happens. I'm not banking
on any games played for either of these two.
Speaker 2: Over to the blue line, and we start with the
good news. John Carlson just keeps quietly plugging along. Fifty
two points last year in eighty two games, and that
might seem paltry by last year's defenseman standards or before
some defensemen were getting over a point per game. Carlson's
definitely out of that conversation now. But Carlson actually played
the most regular season minutes of his career last year
twenty one to twenty three runner up year was eighty nine. Wait,
let me do math. That would be one minutes less
minutes fewer than he had last year. Pretty amazing. In
twenty one to twenty three minutes last year topp to
NHL skaters, So that's pretty impressive for the thirty four
year old. He took two shots, two and a half blocks,
and a hit per game. He's down to two years
on that big contract. Bash obviously, excellent. One has to
think he's eventually a candidate for a heartbreaking trade. It
depended on how the Capitals have to retool, or maybe
the Capitals keep him around and get him on a
more gently declining contract. But one wonders if the hard
reset comes in after the resolution comes what either, Well,
Vechkin sets the record or it's pretty clear he's not
going to set the record. Whether Carlson could move out
as they moved on a lot of guys who have
been long term parts of the team. Victor, I know
the point total is down, one would think that there's
a good chance it could flex back up. And with
that bash, is Victor Carlson a very back end d
one for you in a twelve team league.
Speaker 1: I don't know who Victor Carlson is, but he might
be related to John or something. I'm not sure.
Speaker 2: He is the cross of Albert Pooholtz and John Carlson.
Speaker 1: Wow, he sounds like a great athlete. Yeah, John Carlson,
I think that you have to still be happy with him,
and there's obviously some concern that he's going to get
some time eaten into his role from a guy we're
going to talk about a couple of guys we're going
to talk about in a little bit, so that's a
little bit of the concern. But he still is mister
Stout back there. He has obviously the reputation and he's
been doing it for a long time. So I think
that you'd be pretty happy with him as a one
D in the twelfth team league. I don't know that
i'd be super happy with that. I would much rather him.
I would much rather have someone else as my top D.
But I do think that he could be very serviceable,
and if he was, I think you just would have
to have another, some stronger second or third defenseman on
your team. But I would be really happy with him
as the second defenseman. That would proride a lot of value.
He still has some pretty decent upside all of the
scoring and the bash continues to be pretty solid as well,
and they're still going to have a dangerous power play
that he's going to be a part of, at least
to some extent. So I think you'd still have to
be pretty happy. But as you said, those days of
like super high upside are not there. But I think
fifty sixty points is still well within reach for him.
I'm also interested to see how some of his even
strength deployment changes. He was playing and has been playing
ridiculous minutes and he's going to be thirty five this season.
He played the most average time on ice he ever
has this past season, almost twenty six minutes. That's I
think he needs a little bit less of an even
strength role, and I think they have the personnel to
allow that to happen a little bit better this season.
We'll have to see about that that I hope will
help him be a little bit more effective on the
power plan and have a little bit more of a
run there. Okay, I alluded to some of the other
defensemen that they have here, and we're not necessarily going
to talk about all of them, but Ferivari, TVR Matt
Roy I think is going to be an exceptional piece
that helps the overall decor not necessarily someone that I
think is that we think is super fantasy relevance. So
we're not going to talk about them, but I think
that should help everyone else have a little bit lighter
load to lift. But Jacob Chickeran is someone that we're
going to talk about, and he's someone who obviously has
had some pretty interesting seasons back when he was in Arizona,
we were all just hoping that he would go somewhere
else and have a little bit more relevance, and it
didn't necessarily happen that way. He did have a big
uptick that partial season with Arizona Ottawa, but in Ottawa
it didn't seem to quite go as well for him,
and obviously there's a crowd to blue line for power
play time, but he still had his strong peripherals and
he still had a pretty okay scoring forty one point
pace what he had there. I think the question is
can he get back up to being closer to a
fifty point pace even though he's not necessarily having the
most power play timinized, he still had a decent number
of minutes. It just wasn't necessarily with the top unit,
and I'm not sure that's going to happen here. But
he does have some really strong value in those peripheral leagues.
So I think that the issue there here is that
there's a high floor. It's just a matter of how
high the ceiling is. Jesse, how high do you think
the ceiling is for Jacob Chickern And do you agree
that the floor is still pretty high.
Speaker 2: I guess the floor is high given the bash there.
I act feel like Chickeran is a guy who had
one career year. He was the flavor of the month.
He was young, he was on a team where it
seems he would be available in Arizona, and then he
was the bell of the ball. And I don't know
that he's going to achieve that level now. If he's
out there with John Carlson this year, that could be
a very good thing, and he could have that high
floor thing. But I'm really not looking for sealing out
of Jacob Chickerin, and I wonder whether the Capitals will
be able to keep him around after this year. I
guess part of it will depend also on whether John
Carlson remains a Capital at that point, and Matt Roy
is going to be around for a while, and another
guy he's being paid more than is Rasmus Sandan. Actually,
Rasmus was the second most quote important defenseman on the
team by usage and actually got a lot of minutes
with Carlson last year. That's according to the Hockey Viz
determinations of these things. He certainly played plenty of minutes
in the times he was able to get out there.
He's not a scoring threat though. What we're missing with
Sandying he doesn't get the power play time, but he's
settled into that long term role with the team. I
think he's going to remain My thought was Sandyin he's
going to remain a top four defenseman with minimal scoring
and not necessarily much for Bash. He'll get some things,
but not probably to the level of some of the
other guys in this team, so he's probably not going
to be a target. Maybe he'll be the new Dimitri
Orloff with fewer points. Dimitri was never a guy I
was that excited about trying to get in fantasy. I
don't know my too low on rast with Sandein Victor.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us have been hoping to
get him out of Toronto and get him a bigger
role and see what he can do with more time
on ice. But as we also say, that bigger role
and more time on ice doesn't always equal more production
and better better stats, and I think this is a
really good example of that. I often thought saw him
in a limited role in Toronto and kept saying, well,
let's he could do so much more with more opportunity.
He didn't necessarily have more power play opportunity, but he
did have a lot more even straight time on ice
the last two seasons, and he had previously. I mean,
he was averaging the first couple of seasons in Toronto
closer to fifteen minutes, and then he went up past
nineteen and even twenty last season, and the impacts were
pretty poor. Actually, his defensive impacts were twelve percentile, offensively
thirty fourth percentile, and he's supposed to be an offensive defenseman.
And of course the team was bad, as you quoted
at the beginning, so there wasn't a whole lot to
work with. But so maybe there is still more here
with Rasmus standing. But I think that I agree with you.
I think that he can be like a thirty to
forty point guy, and I think that he can run
a power play. There's some prospects that are going to
come along that we'll talk about in the dig that
are probably labeled the powerplay quarterback of the future. But
there's going to be an interim I think between Carlson
and Cole Hudson. So I think that he's going to
potentially get some interim time there and maybe he can
do something with that, if he's even still on the
team at that point. But I don't I agree with you,
and my hopes have been dashed a little bit in
terms of what I think sandy In can be. I
think he is a serviceable middle to bottom pairing guy,
but beyond that, I don't think that there's big upside here.
His priffs have come a long way, actually, because initially
in Toronto his priffs weren't super strong. They've gotten a
bit better. He's closer to replacement, a little bit above
replacement level. Now. At least there's that. At least there's
something too hold on too while you're hoping for more points. Jesse,
all right, let's move over to the goalies now. And
the Capitals were ranked twenty second and expected goals against
per sixty and it conceded the twentieth ranked actual goals
per game. Charlie ling Grin was a big reason for that,
and we will talk about him certainly. And then they
brought in Logan Thompson to be part of this tour,
this duo. I was there at the draft when Logan
Thompson was signing autographs for the Vegas Golden Knight fans,
when he was traded. That was pretty hilarious. What I
love what the Caps are doing is that they have
under two million dollars for both of these goalies. That
is the way to do it, in my opinion. They're
not paying either of these guys very much, and I
think they're both pretty serviceable. You see their numbers in
the past. They're both able to pretty close not necessarily
outperform their expected goals, but be in that neighborhood in
terms of their delta Fenwick and so there's there are
two guys that certainly can play. I think it's going
to be interesting to see what's going to happen with
Charlie Linger. And he's someone who I have been interested
in for a long time now getting a little bit
more of a role, and he finally did this last
season and played fifty games and was actually pretty good.
So I think that he is someone who seems like
he can handle the starter role. And Thompson we have
seen take the reins for a fair amount of time
and be someone who at least can play really well
behind a pretty good team. I'm not sure how that's
going to work playing for a team that's defensively quite
at worst in Vegas. But Jesse, how do you see
the starts here rolling out between these two? And do
you think that Lingering is still the starter slash one A.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Lingerin is still the starter slash one A.
I think Logan Thompson is an amazing contract to pull
in and a guy with experience. It seems like some
of these guys it's I don't know what to think
of guys coming out of Vegas in that system, because
guys have just thrived to a level. Aiden Hill was
not Aiden Hill before he went there, and I don't
know what Logan Thompson's going to look like coming out
of there. Charlie Lingern certainly gave up some stinkers last
year and had some rough games, as was covered earlier,
But I do feel like he is the guy I
am more likely to have faith in being able to
settle into this net if he can get the defense
in front of him, and they've beated up that defense,
so let's hope for the best in terms of that.
But yeah, I like Charlie ling grin more. I think
you're victor.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense. I do think he's going to
stick around to be the starter, But quite frankly, I
think this is a tandem that could generate some interest.
You know, they're both pretty decent guys, and I can
see that one of them, you know, getting a little
bit more of a role if Thompson goes on a
roll and Lingren has had some stretches where he hasn't
been so good. So I think I certainly have some
interest in Thompson as a tandem or as a pair
and the second guy if in a deep enough league,
I think that could be interesting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and uh, I think that's all we've got today
for the Washington Capitals. We're going to take a break,
come back with some goalie talk.
Speaker 3: Will since that's good fires Oh my goodness, long with
a quick gram.
Speaker 2: Now it's your Wingley goalie talk. But Kat Silverman, Kat's instincts.
Speaker 1: Time once again for Kat's instincts with Cats, Silverman and
Ngold mag talking Capitals goalies. And we're gonna start with
Klay Stevenson six foot, four hundred, ninety four pounds. He
was a star for Dartmouth. Stevenson was and then signed
as a free agent, was not drafted by anyone last season.
He was mostly in the ECHL this season, the previous
season he was in EHL. This past season he was
in the AHL for the Hershey Bears, and I would
say it went pretty well. His EHL numbers were also
good nine sixteen save percentage of two point five four GAA.
This season in the AHL nine to twenty two save
percentage two point h six. It's pretty awesome when you
go up a level of difficulty and improve your stats.
That's always great to see. Looking at some of his
he is looking at hockey prospecting, some of his numbers
have trended down. I think that's partly because he spent
a lot of time in the BCHL, which has a
really low equivalency, and then now he's bumped up and
actually his most freezent and seasons don't really count in
this model because he's too old. He's down twenty five,
so he's graduated beyond that. But he has some comps
like a Scot. There's a Scott Wedgwood in there who's
an average NHLer and we've seen him have some success
in the NHL. So, Kat, what do your instincts tell
us about Klee Stephenson.
Speaker 4: I thought he was a lot of fun to watch
in college he looked like a goaltender who spent a
lot of time marinating in the younger leagues, which unfortunately
means that he does have that lower equivalent seed, just
in the sense that he is twenty five and he
was playing some games against kids who were like twenty
and twenty one. So even if he put up the
exact same stats as them, obviously they look like a
better prospect than he does, just because of age and
overall possibility moving forwards. But I don't think that's necessarily
a bad thing for some goaltenders, just getting that extra
little bit of chance to really fine tune their technique.
Because he looks like a mature he makes good decisions,
he looks confident out there. He looks like he's playing
among his peers, doesn't look like he is learning from them,
looks like he's enjoying the same the game at the
same level as them. Yeah, I don't know where he
falls in terms of NHL readiness, and I do think
that the capitals are gon limbo right now. But he's
one who could potentially be like a Scott went with
someone who makes it to the NHL plays some games
for them. I don't know if he's necessarily their next
as in a winner, but I do think that he
is going to be just fine, and I think he'll
be someone that they could potentially call up next year
if they need to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like they might. Also they have I
really like Charlie Lndren. I think he's earned his stripes.
He certainly hasn't done it for a long time, and
they have him and Logan Thompson, who also has had
had some run but not the longest track record, so
to me, they have two question marks ahead of him
in the NHL, So it's possible that he gets a
call up. Maybe it's him, maybe it's the next guy
we're going to talk about. Mitchell Thompson is the next guy,
and he is at six foot one hundred and eighty
seven pound goalie to twenty eighteen to fourth round pick.
He was great at Harvard before turning pro and last
year he was in the AHL as well with the
Hershey Bears, and he looked pretty good. He had nine
to fifteen save percentage and two games, but mostly he
was with the ECCHL South Carolina Stingrays fun name, and
he was eight ninety nine save percentage two point five
to six GA, so doesn't look too exciting in that model,
and his hockey prospect team looks really low. I think
part of that's because some of his early seasons were
in THEAHL and the NAHL, so some low equivalency leagues,
and he's down to eighty percent chance of being an NHLer.
But that doesn't include his professional hockey time. The only
comp that I could found that was reasonable is Dan Ellis,
who was like replacement level starter. That's pretty low. Anyways, Kat,
what do you instincts tell us about Gibson. That's a
tough one.
Speaker 4: That's like you said, they have a lot of question
marks in the capital system, so I think they could
be a team that literally anyone could make it to
get an NHL start this year. Nothing about his game
necessarily looks like He looks like a guy who has
been playing hockey for a long time, has really been
grinding it out. Has decent technique, has good movement, seems
like he's pretty unshakable, but he's been grinding it out.
He's twenty five already. I think if we were going
to see him really wow, we probably would have seen
it by now. I think I think Dan Ellis maybe
another Scott Wedgwood. That's a pair of goalies that are
good experience, good locker room guys between Stevenson and Gibson,
but not necessarily that's not ours I ask GARB to
have in their system. Maybe they need one. There's one
for sale, I've heard.
Speaker 1: Yes, there is. Yeah, an interesting system and we'll see
what happens. Thanks so much, Cavig Gama Shaanstincs on the
Washington Capital's goalies, Dig.
Speaker 2: The Dynasty, Dig Victor. The Washington Capitals are system number
twenty eight on the ranks. I think that was pre draft. Boy,
it feels like we've got some hotter prospects than that
number would indicate, probably guys who will be coming onto
this into the future. But it starts with your no brainer.
Who is it?
Speaker 1: Yeah, the no brainer is going to be Cole Hudson
twenty twenty four, forty third, forty third overall pick. I
was there at the draft when he was speaking at
the table. It was really fun. Someone asked him if
he had bragging rights on his brother being drafted a
little bit earlier, and I think he very appropriately was like,
I got a lot to prove until I get to
the point where I can say I got anything on Lane,
but he is a really exciting young defenseman, just like
his brother is. And he's a little bit taller than
he than his brother was when he was drafted. Lane
was still five nine when drafted in Cole five ten already,
so that's nice that he's already grown a little bit
left handed d he turned eighteen on the first day
of the draft. He wasn't drafted till Tay two, unfortunately,
but he's very young for this draft cycle. I think
that's always important to note. And so he was seventeen
all season, and he potentially still has a little bit
more to grow in terms of his obviously his all
around game, but also his height. So he's already reached
the height of where his brother is now. And looking
at some of the metrics like Mitch Brown's tracking data,
Cole Hudson elite offensively for the USHL ninety fifth percent
transition eighty two percentile. You got the defense a little
bit lacking at forty fifth percentile, but he's excellent for
expected goals, expected primary assists. His entries and exits are
pretty outstanding. He's got some really great game score and
impact overall in the game, and as I noted a
couple times previously in the draft episodes, I think he
did more with less at the usn TDP I think
he had less talent around him than Lane did and
he was still able to put up significant number of points.
You love to see that. And he was awesome at
the UA teen World Junior Championships for USA, even though
they had lost in that heartbreaker to Canada, but he
was everything four points and nine assists for thirteen points
in seven games. He's an offensive dynamo. His FHL player card,
based on his USHL performance, you can see that he
actually hits a lot. You might think Cole Hudson, Oh,
he's just an offensive guy, is not really going to
throw the body. But ninetieth percentile for hits Cole Hudson,
that probably surprises a lot of people. Reason to take
a look at these FHL player cards. His shots are
eighty percentile. His block's a little bit lower at just
thirty percentile, but that might have been because they often
had the puck and they were a good possession teams,
so that might have helped him. His goals and assists
also ninetieth percentile. He actually is only thirtieth percentile for
pims because if you like pims, he actually takes a
fair number of them. That's something that you might like
if you're in that kind of league. So overall, the
bash is pretty decent for Cole, maybe better than you
would think. But let's hear a little bit more about
some of the nuances of Cole Hudson's game. From Urfahl Scout.
Speaker 2: Leed scout Jeremy Bee pipes in on Cole Hudson skating
smooth skater from the back end, makes use of that
speed and edgework to join the rush and recover Defensively,
passing and handling, Hudson is a great puck handler and
passer consistently can beat defenders in transition a dish to
open teammates shooting. Hudson's shots very good for defenseman. He
should score plenty of goals IQ IQ and panic meter
with the puck could use some work. He has a
habit of giving away the puck by holding on too
long and sometimes making ill advised passes. On the offensive zone,
He'll be exciting, but on the breakout he may give
you some heart attacks defense. Cole Hudson's defensive game is developing,
but there's glimpses of a lot of good things. He
isn't afraid to engage physically and has the edgework to
keep up with opponents. He can get caught puck watching
at times and get muscled off the puck, but those
are teachable skills. Jeremy says. The best asset is the
passing and stick handling. The biggest concern the decision making
is going to frustrate coaches and fans. He needs to
clean that up before being considered a lock for NHL time.
The top tier outcome here sixty point power play one defenseman,
nice role. That's because he has the offensive skill set
and enough defense to get by. He just needs to
clean up the mental game a bit more. The median outcome,
Jeremy says, third pairing limited minutes deep with offensive power
play to upside. If he doesn't hit, he's going to
be a frustrating defenseman that teams can't quite trust at
even strength and that will cap his minutes. Stylistic comparable
Jeremy's going with zach Warensky and the final thoughts He's
got no competition in Washington long term, so look for
him to get some looks soon. Victor. Our friend Mason Black,
the NHL ranking put out the poll col Hudson versus
competition Anton Silajev. So I have who I drafted in
the in one of our rookie drafts when I was
completely on tilt this week and regret it, and I
think the people would agree. Cole Hudson is the higher pick,
the higher prospect, sixty four to thirty six. He comes
in and over Salaiev is that I would bet you
a nickel. That's what you're gonna say. You agree with.
Speaker 1: Yep. Of course, sometimes the NHL ranking Mason gives us
a toss up softball, and this is absolutely it for me.
I would take Cole Hubson Hudson easily, hero ran time.
Salaiev is the more for sure thing to play in
the NHL. He got the size, he's got, the skating
he's been playing professionally. If you want the absolute for
sure thing to play in the league, I guess the
only contingency is since he's rushing, maybe he or there's
some sort of injury. Obviously, anything can happen, but I
think it's extremely likely he plays in the league. I
just don't think he's someone who's gonna score very much
at all. Hudson, on the other hand, all the offensive
upside in the world, but he's a little bit smaller.
Some of the risk that he brings with him in
terms of his offensive game is what you would worry about.
But I would easily take Hudson. By the way, I
was looking at our average draft position, because that's something
that we're tracking, and you can have that as part
of your draft. You can be informed and see where
these guys are coming. Salaiev comes in at fourteen. Cole
Hudson twenty second. If you were drafting around eighteen nineteen,
thinking I wonder if Hudson will be available, odds are
according to our data, he would be maybe you could
wait a little bit. That's always good information to know. Anyways,
I would definitely take Hudson. Looking at the p n
H lead between the two, it's actually similar, surprisingly sixty
for Cudson sixty fifty eight for Salaiev. That's why we're
talking about them together. But I think that there's, as
I mentioned, just way more upside for Hudson. Looking at
the hockey prospecting between these two, you can see this
massive discrepancy. Hudson has sixty nine percent chance of being
a star, Salaia fifteen percent. And actually the NHLer probability
is higher for Hudson too, which I didn't didn't expect
based on Byron's hockey prospecting eighty fifth percentile eighty fifty
five percent for Cole Hudson and just fifty one percent
for Salai. Of of course, I wanted to throw up
the comparison of Cole to Lane Hudson because why not?
And he so far Cole has a higher star potential
than Lane did. In his draft season, Dre Lane was
just fifty three percent chance of being a star, whereas
Cole is already at sixty nine. In fact, this season,
this draft season for Cole looks more like Lane's Draft
plus one season, where he shot up to seventy three
percent chance of being a star. His NHL equivalency was
pretty similar to Cole's draft season. So that's pretty interesting
in terms of what we're going to see moving forward
from the young man. And Cole is off to Boston
University this season just like Lane did, so we'll see
how his transition to the NCAA is. Obviously, that was
a huge pop off for Lane, so we'll see if
he can increase that a little bit. Looking at the
j freshcard, Cole Hudson twelve percent chance of being a star,
which is pretty good for this model, eighty five percent
chance of being in NHLer, So a lot of the
models see him as being a pretty sure bet to
be a great producer. Cole Hudson are no brainer.
Speaker 2: Yes sir, And next up, mister Champagne. The need to
know prospect too, is it?
Speaker 1: Yes? Andrew Christall is our need to know and yeah
he's twenty twenty three. Fortieth overall pick was Andrew Kristall
five ten, one hundred and seventy four pounds left shot
left wing. Is we as. He had a Bonker's Draft
plus one season where he went from ninety five points
in fifty four games to one hundred and eleven points
and sixty two games played, plus another fifteen points in
eleven playoff games. Obviously the points scoring is massive there.
He plays for the Colonna Rockets in the WHL and
it was a pretty banana season. He is a February
nineteen birthday, so he will be in the WHL all
of this next season as well, unless he gets a
little bit of a try out with the Caps, I
don't think he's anywhere close to being NHL already quite frankly,
though he did sign his ELC, I think the Caps
know what they have with him. Looking at his tracking data,
he continues to struggle defensively. His defensive impacts are pretty
atrocious eighteenth percentile as a draft plus one guy who
went pretty high in the NHL raft, that's a pretty
low number. His offense, though, ninety nine percentile. We know
that his transitional game also very good, so things like
his off puck assist, his body positioning, his defensive play,
these are all things that really the mids tracks that
really seem to struggle for Andrew Crystal, and I think
it's going to be one of the things that limits
him moving forward. We'll have to see. Looking at his
FHL player card, goals and assists per sixty are out
of this off the charts one hundred percentile, ninety percentile
for shots, but everything else is pretty low. His hits
and blocks are basically hardly even register they're below ten percent,
and the bash is not going to be there for Crystal.
It's going to be points only. Maybe with some shots,
so that's going to be a bit of the concern
too in terms of holding him in fantasy. The floor
isn't necessarily going to be there. He does take a
fair number of penalties as though, if you like that
sort of thing. But let's hear a little bit more
about Crystal from our VERHL scout.
Speaker 2: Just Jeremy has this to say about Andrew Christaal skating
not a but he's good in his feet above average
as a skater, passing and handling. While Christal is more
known for his shot, this is Jeremy's favorite aspect of
the game. He has great finesse with the puck, good
one touch passing. Jeremy thinks he'll succeed as either a
finisher or a playmaker. Shooting the shot is the biggest asset.
He's got a lethal snapshot wrist shot that's a danger
for anyone from anywhere in the offensive zone. IQ the
offensive poison vision are great. He also anticipates plays well
in the defensive zone, although that sometimes leads to him
being out of position for checking. Christal could do to
improve on his foe checking. He applies light pressure, often
slows up and reaches with a stick instead of pushing
plays to the boards. Hopefully Christall ends up on a
better line with better four checkers defense. Crystal's defense is fine,
although he definitely cheats toward the offensive zone at times.
Best asset most would say a shot, but again, Jeremy
actually likes the handle an in passing better and thinks
he'll end up more the setup guy than the finisher
on power plays for example. Biggest concern not quite a
complete game yet. If he doesn't round that out, he's
not going to get twenty minutes a night that will
unlock everything else. Pop tier outcome seventy five to eighty
point play driving winger. If his offense crystallizes, Oh, Jeremy,
he can be more. He can be one of the
more dynamic players from this draft class. The median outcome
third line player, power play one scoring depth guy. Jeremy
does worry his game may not translate one hundred percent
to the NHL. If that happens, he may just be
a middle six guy stylistic comparable. This will indicate something
Jeff Skinner and overall being in a weak Washington system
should help Christall develop more quickly. Our friend Mason Black
the NHL rank King. He put out the poll Andrew
Christall versus Calum Ritchie and Christall in a landslide over
the avl Oh look at that, sixty eight point five
to thirty one point five Victor. That's what the numbers
seem to say. Is that what you say for these two?
Speaker 1: I think that I would take Richie quite frankly, So
I'm going to go against the grain here. Well, yeah, yeah,
I'm going to stand up. I guess I'm gonna fall
down with the avalanche. I'm not really sure what the
right way to say that is. But we've talked about
Christall and all the potential issues with his game, his
lack of two way effort, the lack of ability to
do that. And he's a he's a pretty unidimensional player,
and so he needs a very specific role to be
successful in the NHL. And maybe the Caps will be
able to give that to him, maybe they won't. Maybe
they'll be happy with that, maybe they won't. I think
that there's just a lot of questions there. The upside
is unquestioned. He's a brilliant playmaker, He's an offensive dynamo.
But is all that going to translate? Isn't he going
to be able to flex that at the NHL level.
I'm still skeptical about that. Ritchie, on the other hand,
we talked with Megan Anger about how he's going to
be knocking on the door as early as this season
to play in the NHL, that he's really come a
long way and that they really like him, and so
he might even I don't think he'll make it, but
he might compete for a spot in camp this season,
which will be pretty fun, and at the very least
maybe he'll get some games. At the end of this season.
He will turn twenty in January, so next season, not
this upcoming one, but the one after, he should be
in the AHL. And he's just a more well rounded player,
So I think that there's a lot more potential for
it to completely work out for Callum Ritchie. You look
at his tracking data and his defensive metrics are eighty
second percentile and his offense is just as good statistically
in terms of percentile as Andrew Christal. So you have
a similarly offensively gifted player with a completely different picture
two way transition and defensively for Calum Richie. So I
would definitely take him, and I would take a little
bit more security for the vault latility of the upside
of Andrew Kristal. Looking at the hockey prospecting between the two,
Crystal has it by a fair amount fifty four percent
chance of being a star to Richie, who trend it
down just a little bit in terms of twenty four
to twelve percent chance of being a star, even though
his P and H his NHL went up from twenty
five to thirty nine, just because of the way that
Byron tracks this and the NHLer probability is still higher
for Christal. Looking at some other comps for Crystal, a
lot of them are pretty good. Brian Little is one.
He's got some Leon dry Sidle in there. I don't
think that there's very little likelihood that Christal ends up
being likely and dry Sidle, but you never know. I
guess there's a world where his offense completely translates, and
that's why a lot of people are picking him. I
would say there were certainly some detractors of dry Sitle,
saying that he is his foot speed and his defensive
game were not great, and that maintains to be true.
But he's just so offensively gifted. I'm just not sure
that the offense translates for Kristal. We'll see the J
Fresh card thirty six percentile for Christal eighty percent chance
of being in NHLR. So even the J Fresh card
pretty optimistic on him. He's the twentieth ranked prospect in
that data set, Jesse.
Speaker 2: Yes, sir, and the keep your eye on prospect victor
who is it.
Speaker 1: We'll keep your eye on is going to be Ryan Leonard,
And as you mentioned at the top, this is a
pretty great keep your eye on prospect. A lot of
the systems don't have one quite this good. But he
was a twenty twenty third eighth overall pick, six foot
ninety pounds right shot center, sixty points and forty one
games at BC of the NCAA six points and seven
games at end route to the gold medal for the
USA at the U twenty World Junior Championship. He had
one assist in the Men's World Championship for USA in
six games. He will be back at BC with Gay
Pro and not Will Smith, but they are getting the
infusion of James Hagen's into their lineup. In fact, most
likely going to play between Leonard m Pro is going
to be James Hagen, so I don't know that Higgins
is quite where Will Smith was last year, but his
upside might even be higher than will Smith, so that
he's got one going to trade out one elite center
for another, So that should be pretty good for Leonard,
and I think we'll be interesting to see him play
not with Smith, although he'll still be playing with Pro.
We've been wanting to see those three split up for
a while now, and it's still not entirely happening, but
a little bit. Looking at the tracking data from Mitch Brown,
Leonard offense ninety nine percentile, transition ninety nine percentile, defense
fifty five percentile, and that's always what was triesing to
me because he seems to be billed as more of
the defensively responsible one of that trio, and he's still
just about average, so that's interesting. And at the World
Juniors Leonard was twenty ninth percentile for defense. I think
that line was asked to go out and score, though,
so I'm not sure that was even on his mind
as much. Looking at the FHL player card for Leonard,
you can see that he hits a ton one hundred
percentile essentially, and the shots are also really high. The
blocks see at percentile, so he just looks like a
bash gem, which gives him that super high floor something
we always like to see. That's something we can expect.
Let's hear a little bit more what we can expect
about Ryan Leonard from our FHL scout Jesse.
Speaker 2: Leed scout Jeremy says skating Leonard doesn't have the best
first step, but he's sneaky fast when he gets going.
Passing and handling silky hands for Leonard. He routinely made
NCAA defenders look silly one on one shooting. Leonard's shot
is fine, but he's not going to be scoring most
of his goals from distance. He'll be better at getting
in close and slamming home rebounds. IQ. His hockey IQ
is one of the best that Jeremy's seen from his
draft class. He anticipates plays and seems to always be involved. Defensively,
cuts off lanes, creates pressure for checking. Leonard is an
aggressive for checker who can both create turnovers and wear
down defenders. He seems to have unlimited motor defense. Leonard's
defense is well polished for his his age. He's quick
to move from the ashes to the point when covering
and willing to take the body and block shots. He
could even be an asset on the penalty kill if
asked too. So the best asset was the IQ. The
biggest concern Jeremy didn't really have a biggest concern if
he had a nitpick. He wonders if five eleven, one
hundred ninety pounds can hold up to many years of
this play style, but Jeremy doesn't like projecting injury risks,
so he's not going to go there. Biggest role potential,
top tier ninety plus point do it all player. That's
because the sky's the limit with this guy's potential. Jeremy
thinks he could be a fifty to sixty point NHLer
as soon as next season, and if he gets an
elite center, he could do some real scoring damage for
the next decade. Fiftieth percentile median would be sixty five
to seventy point complementary power forward. Jeremy doesn't really see
the Leonard missing the top six under any circumstances. At
the low end, maybe he's the second line energy guy
like the Toronto era Zachman, and Jeremy thinks most outcomes
for him put him top six power play one, probably
top three on his team in points. Brad Marshaan without
the antics, is the stylistic comparable or the good Travis
connect the seasons and overall, Jeremy is a big fan
thinks he's one of the most NHL ready prospects out there.
The NHL Rankking Pole says that Ryan Leonard's terrible and
everybody should trade him to me in their fantasy leagues. No, actually,
I'm sorry, I misread that it's actually Ryan Leonard versus
Uri Coolich of the Buffalo Sabers. Ryan Leonard absolute route
seventy nine percent to twenty one percent. Victor, are you
that strongly Leonard over Kolich Or do you want to
swim against the grain again.
Speaker 1: Look, I've been doing that a lot lately, swimming against
the grain. Yeah, this one's definitely harder for me. I
love Ury Kulick as a lot of people will probably
know his I think he's in line for a huge
season here with the Sabers sometime soon. I'm not sure
I think it should be this season. I don't know
what else he has to prove at the AHL level.
He's been incredible the last two seasons as a teenager.
He just turned twenty in April, so he had eighteen
to nineteen year old seasons basically as a teenager in
the AHL, and he was awesome, one of the best
AHL teenagers ever in terms of productions. I think Kolik
is amazing. I think that he's he may not have
the Bash that Leonard has, but I'm a little skeptical
of how much the scoring is going to translate for Leonard.
I think he ends up being more of like a
two way, checking, power forward type, whereas Cool Look, I
think has always been more of the offense energy guy,
so it's definitely closer for me. I would have a
really hard time with this one if I was picking
between these two, and obviously the system that they're in
matters a little bit. I do think that there will
be a more defined role for Leonard than there is
for There's so many guys in Buffalo that you wonder
how that top six is going to flesh out. It
looks like it's more like a top nine, and so
there'll be a lot of competition for those top roles,
whereas I think it'll be a little bit more clear
for Leonard. So I guess I would take Leonard, but
it would be really close and difficult for me to
make that decision. The pin Achillie for Leonard is eighty
six and it's seventy three for Kulick. The trend for
Leonard is just like skyrocketing upward towards ninety ish points,
which is pretty eighty five points, which is pretty fantastic.
Kulick has been in that seventy ish points the last
couple of seasons, which is pretty great. There's some really
good comps for Leonard and the Pinacilli model, like Dylan
Lark and Ryan Getzlov, and for Kulick it's a little
bit lower guys like Fiola and Vanik, so that's pretty
interesting looking at the hockey prospecting between the two. It's
always been a bit lower for Koulick just because his
low equivalency and his D minus one season because there
wasn't really much of an equivalency there and then. But
he's really off the charts since coming over to North America.
He's still only had six percent chance of being a
star though, whereas Leonard has basically maintained his star potential
at fifty three the last two seasons, so that's super high.
And the NHL R probability and seventy six percent for
Leonard compared to forty eight for Kolick. Looking at the
comps for Ryan Leonard, there's just a lot of pretty
good ones. Jonathan Drewan is one that's more average, but
Elias Peterson is in there, so that's pretty cool. There's
some other ones like the Sadines twins. I don't know
that he has that kind of upside frankly, but he
does have some comparisons to those, so you love to
see those types of upside in the comparisons, even if
it's potentially not all that likely. But yeah, Leonard. One
thing I can never get out of my mind when
watching Ryan Leonard is thinking about his brother John Leonard,
who played for the Sharks and just seemed to have
a really hard time to translating his skill. So I
don't know that's going to be the case for Ryan Leonard,
but it always sticks in the back of my mind.
Looking at the Jfresh card for Ryan Leonard, twenty three
percent chance of being a start of eighty six percent
chance of being NHL or so, twenty fifth ranked prospect
in that system overall, pretty optimistic for this prospect Pool
in Washington, Jesse. And if you're a patroon, you can
listen to my top ten prospect recaps, which I'm going
through now that we're closing up these team previews. And
if you're interesting to do some skyting with us, shoot
me a DM on Twitter, Discord, or email us.
Speaker 5: We'll be right back to close up the show. Before
you leave today, a plug that you should play Fantasy
Hockey on fan tracks. You can start new leagues. All
the eligibility customization, every type of customization you could ever
want you can do over there. You should get yourself
going and start a league with friends, or come into
our scored make some friends and start some leagues. Fantraks
HQ is going to give you fantasy content throughout the year,
including Fantasy Hockey articles. FAHL is a team. We thank
our Fahl crew for all their hard work. The tidy
leagues are a bunch of work, Thank goodness. Ryan Simone,
Crafter and Tim are out there commissioning them for Victor
and myself. Jeremy v is our lead scout who's getting
all of these scouting reports together, and now he's being
joined joined by my buddy Tony who is going to
assist with that. Brandon is our website guru. He's a scout.
Speaker 2: He helps with prospect ranks and visualizations. If you've got
to show the skills you'd like to lend the show.
Victor would love to talk to you. You can find
him in the Discord email or on X. We're also
brought to you by Dauber Hockey and Dabber Prospects. Victor
is an editor over there. Follow his work as well
as this other podcast, Dobber Prospect Report with Peter Harlan.
Be sure to check out Victor's articles at EP Ringside.
He's part of the fantasy team there with Cam Robinson
and Mike Clifford. I do a solo show called Dynasty
Sports Life where I talk all the Dynasty sports sometimes
multiple in an episode, and some crossover talk because Dynasty
has a lot in common between different sports. Believe it
or not. Follow us on X at Victor Newno. Twelve
at Fan Hockey Life, both worthwhile things. You can watch
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episodes up on YouTube. You see some videos, some film
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your pods. This is the thirty second of thirty two
team previews. I told you all along that we do
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