1
00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: All right, guys, welcome in. It is Tuesday. It's time

2
00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,000
for total bases.

3
00:00:08,519 --> 00:00:08,919
Speaker 2: I threw it.

4
00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,439
Speaker 1: I need to throw a rally cap on Tokyo Brandon

5
00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,279
because things are not going good for me. And then

6
00:00:13,279 --> 00:00:15,320
I got a KBO win, so I'm all ready to

7
00:00:15,359 --> 00:00:16,760
go all jazzed up.

8
00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 2: It's Tuesday.

9
00:00:17,359 --> 00:00:19,920
Speaker 1: We got fifteen games, they're all at night, and we're

10
00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,359
gonna get right into it. Brian Leonard, we have a

11
00:00:22,519 --> 00:00:26,519
nationally televised game tonight here in the States. It's a

12
00:00:26,559 --> 00:00:30,760
big matchup in the in the National League Central. Last

13
00:00:30,839 --> 00:00:33,439
night it was a good game back and forth. And

14
00:00:34,759 --> 00:00:38,560
you know, are you getting at all concerned for the

15
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,920
Chicago Cubs right now or is this still a team

16
00:00:41,679 --> 00:00:45,799
that is going to get it right because the last

17
00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:47,439
I think, we're going on a month now, and I

18
00:00:47,439 --> 00:00:49,960
gotta I gotta credit one of our users or one

19
00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,320
of our one of our users.

20
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:52,759
Speaker 2: It's a ridiculous term.

21
00:00:52,759 --> 00:00:54,280
Speaker 1: It's not even what I was trying to say one

22
00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,039
of our members in the chat about five weeks ago.

23
00:00:58,600 --> 00:00:59,399
Speaker 2: I forget who it is.

24
00:00:59,439 --> 00:01:01,359
Speaker 1: If you're here now, let us know, because I want

25
00:01:01,359 --> 00:01:04,239
to shout you out, pointed out some reasons, and I

26
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,879
think even gave us some analysis in the comments of

27
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,239
why the Cubs might start to trend downward, and that

28
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,120
is kind of exactly what's happened, probably going back four

29
00:01:15,159 --> 00:01:18,000
or five weeks. Last thing, they come out and lose

30
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,400
to the Reds. So how are you seeing the Cubs

31
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,400
right now and what do you think about this one

32
00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:23,439
Red's Cubs tonight.

33
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,200
Speaker 3: Well, as we have seen, it's a long season. You

34
00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,400
have lots of ups and downs as the year goes on.

35
00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,439
If you take a look at run differential, they're still

36
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:39,760
second in baseball and run differential plus one fourteen. Let

37
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,719
me point out that they've been surpassed, not only in

38
00:01:42,719 --> 00:01:45,079
the division by the Milwaukee Brewers with a three run

39
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,760
a three game advantage. The Brewers are now at plus

40
00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,799
one twenty one. They're not only the best team from

41
00:01:51,879 --> 00:01:56,519
win percentage, they're the best team from run differential. This

42
00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,840
Milwaukee team is built differently than what we see now.

43
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,200
There to remind me a lot of teams that we

44
00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:08,400
grew up on, Kansey, Royal St. Louis Cardinals, teams that run.

45
00:02:08,759 --> 00:02:10,599
You get a guy on base and they can move it.

46
00:02:11,199 --> 00:02:14,439
And the Cubs have some guys who can steal. They

47
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:18,400
just don't do it as often. Both these teams are

48
00:02:18,439 --> 00:02:20,439
going to be in the playoffs, and I think they're

49
00:02:20,439 --> 00:02:22,599
both going to be dangerous. I'm not giving up on

50
00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,680
the Cubs. It's a long season. Getting back to the

51
00:02:26,719 --> 00:02:29,960
Reds game that we're going to talk about today. Yeah,

52
00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,360
the Reds are sitting here now, nine and a half

53
00:02:32,479 --> 00:02:34,840
back of the Brewers. They got a five twenty two

54
00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:41,240
winning percentage now, and they have not been hitting very well,

55
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,800
and yet they continue to play pretty well as a

56
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,719
team if you look at their statcast page, and it

57
00:02:47,759 --> 00:02:50,000
does have the hitters as well as the pitchers. And

58
00:02:50,039 --> 00:02:52,960
I seem to stick with the pitchers most of the

59
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,960
time when I'm on the show. But Ellie Dela Cruz

60
00:02:56,039 --> 00:02:59,039
is really the only guy that is having a consistently

61
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,680
good season. Hayes has slumped a little bit. He was

62
00:03:02,719 --> 00:03:06,840
good before Tyler Stevens are coming back this year. Has

63
00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,960
not been as good as he's been in the past.

64
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,400
As some of their other guys but they were leaning

65
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,680
on earlier in the season have not hit as well.

66
00:03:14,719 --> 00:03:17,719
Matt mcclean's starting to come out of his slump a

67
00:03:17,719 --> 00:03:20,360
little bit, but he's still His numbers on the season

68
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,159
are not very good. But when you take a look

69
00:03:23,159 --> 00:03:26,800
at the Cubs hitters, Suzuki has been terrific all season long,

70
00:03:26,879 --> 00:03:30,719
Bush Tucker. Even though Tucker is not performing like he

71
00:03:30,759 --> 00:03:32,919
did earlier in the season, he's still a great player.

72
00:03:33,319 --> 00:03:35,879
Dansby Swans is having a nice bounce back season. So

73
00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,240
they've got a lot more hitting choices on this team

74
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,120
than the Reds do, and that's something you have to

75
00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:46,719
take into account. Here the two pitchers, Zach Lettel making

76
00:03:46,759 --> 00:03:53,000
his first start coming over from Tampa, and there I

77
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,680
retweeted yesterday there were somebody that put it all together

78
00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,280
on the internet. I do a lot of retweeting of

79
00:03:59,759 --> 00:04:04,719
our cools and things that are very good on YouTube

80
00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:09,719
or excuse me, on on the internet. And Zach Lettel

81
00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,479
is making his first start here. There was like four

82
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,199
or five pitchers that made their first starts yesterday at

83
00:04:15,199 --> 00:04:15,960
the New ball Clubs.

84
00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:16,800
Speaker 4: They all got behind.

85
00:04:17,639 --> 00:04:20,959
Speaker 3: I'm usually of the feeling that these guys, especially if

86
00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:23,279
you're coming over from a team that's not in contention,

87
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,079
this is like a wake up call. This team wants you.

88
00:04:26,759 --> 00:04:28,639
And usually I like the betting list teams, thank god

89
00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,519
it is. And yesterday I had a losing day Anyway,

90
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:35,120
my five percent was the Cleveland team total under They

91
00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,079
get shut out eight of the nine innings and they

92
00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,920
still reach scoring five runs in the sixth ugly loss there.

93
00:04:42,959 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 4: But yeah, Zetel coming over.

94
00:04:45,199 --> 00:04:48,000
Speaker 3: His best stuff is the walk rate ninety nine percent

95
00:04:48,079 --> 00:04:51,319
toel Chase right eighty four. It's got a three point

96
00:04:51,319 --> 00:04:54,639
five eighty RA four point six to two expected, one

97
00:04:54,639 --> 00:04:59,199
point one two whip. Now coming over and pitching for

98
00:04:59,759 --> 00:05:04,040
the Reds, I would expect his numbers to decline a

99
00:05:04,079 --> 00:05:07,319
little bit if you look at his blue which.

100
00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:07,720
Speaker 4: Is not good.

101
00:05:07,959 --> 00:05:10,480
Speaker 3: His barrel rate ten percentile struck out R eight twelve.

102
00:05:10,639 --> 00:05:14,920
We have fourteenth average X velocity fifteenth. This is not

103
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,759
the best stadium for him. Although for some reason some

104
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,639
of the you know, a couple of these Abbott and

105
00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,800
a few others have had success in here being flyball pitchers.

106
00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,079
We'll see how it goes. Maybe they've got some magic pills.

107
00:05:29,079 --> 00:05:33,199
They are taken over there in Cincinnati. Imanaga going for

108
00:05:33,439 --> 00:05:35,560
the Cubs. He's headed up and down second half of

109
00:05:35,639 --> 00:05:38,759
the season. Three point twenty five ERA, three point eight

110
00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,480
seven expected. So both these pictures are pitching over their

111
00:05:41,519 --> 00:05:44,399
heads right now. His whip is one point oh four

112
00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,879
ground bowl rate third percent out in Chicago. When the

113
00:05:49,879 --> 00:05:52,959
wind's blown out, he's in trouble. And when we're looking

114
00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,600
at the park factors for today in the Wrigley Field,

115
00:05:56,639 --> 00:05:59,240
the winds blowing in. So that's a good thing for him,

116
00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,600
probably good thing also for his counterpart on the mound

117
00:06:03,639 --> 00:06:08,000
here on the line currently in this one with Tampa

118
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,160
Bay playing excuse me, Tampa Bay. I'm still thinking of

119
00:06:11,199 --> 00:06:14,720
his old team for Cincinnati playing the Cubs. We've got

120
00:06:14,879 --> 00:06:18,319
imanago about him now, one seventy five favorite seven and

121
00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:20,560
a half here. Anytime you see a seven and a

122
00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,160
half in a Cubs game, that tells you the wind

123
00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,399
is blowing in here. I prefer the offense is a

124
00:06:25,439 --> 00:06:28,240
little bit more. I think both these pitchers, as I

125
00:06:28,319 --> 00:06:32,040
pointed out, been a little bit lucky so far this season.

126
00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,160
I prefer the over a little bit. Seven and a

127
00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,800
half's not that hard to get there, but without the

128
00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,120
home runs, and just according to the park factorss, the

129
00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,680
home runs for Regally Field tonight will be minus twenty

130
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,720
three percent of what they normally have. So the home

131
00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,199
runs may not get there tonight, but the runs are

132
00:06:50,199 --> 00:06:52,680
only minus ten percent, and you're for getting a seven

133
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:53,040
and a half.

134
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,480
Speaker 4: That's pretty good. So I kind of lead with the

135
00:06:55,519 --> 00:06:57,560
over between these two teams.

136
00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,399
Speaker 5: So yesterday I cashed my five percent and my four percent,

137
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,360
so I was pretty happy. It was a kind of

138
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,160
a big day. And I just went two and one

139
00:07:06,199 --> 00:07:10,399
in KBO as well, so rolling pretty well after a

140
00:07:10,439 --> 00:07:14,680
disastrous week last week. So it's good. Today's five dollars Tuesday, everyone.

141
00:07:14,879 --> 00:07:17,399
I already have my play up. I'm sure these two

142
00:07:17,439 --> 00:07:20,480
guys are going to or already have a play up.

143
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,920
Go to our pages see what we got for five

144
00:07:22,959 --> 00:07:26,040
bucks today. I'm not gonna play this game, so I'll

145
00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:30,199
make it very short. But neither one of these teams

146
00:07:30,279 --> 00:07:33,680
is ripping the cover off the ball here, and I

147
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:38,600
don't really trust either bullpen. Neither pitcher is either pitching

148
00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,399
that great. But what I do like is Lattel's numbers

149
00:07:42,439 --> 00:07:45,759
against these Cubs in his career two eleven average against

150
00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,319
six ninety seven OPS against very good numbers. And he's

151
00:07:49,319 --> 00:07:52,600
actually a pretty good road pitcher. Since he just got traded,

152
00:07:52,839 --> 00:07:54,519
every game is going to be on the road for him,

153
00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:59,480
even in Cincinnati, because he's not used to it. Imanaga

154
00:07:59,519 --> 00:08:02,439
has a great numbers against these batters as well, two

155
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,839
thirty five against average and a five seventy two. Oh

156
00:08:05,839 --> 00:08:08,079
ps e. Monaga's numbers are actually a little bit better,

157
00:08:09,319 --> 00:08:12,319
So I guess first five under. I'm gonna go directly

158
00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:17,279
against what Brian said, first first five under, but three

159
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,360
and a half. Look, I'm looking at Pinnacle and there's

160
00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:24,000
no first five under yet, So I am guessing this

161
00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,360
is going to be three and a half. Since the

162
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,000
game total seven a half. Three and a half so

163
00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,079
hard to bet, so I'm probably not going to bet

164
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,440
it in Major league. You know, one one, a couple

165
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,480
of walks and a bloop and a blast and boom,

166
00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,399
You're you're under is done. So I won't play it,

167
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,360
but if I were to, that would be the way

168
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:39,840
I would go.

169
00:08:41,799 --> 00:08:45,000
Speaker 2: Uh is that Rod Peru? He shouts you out TV.

170
00:08:45,159 --> 00:08:48,159
Speaker 1: He says, great wins on your five and four percent plays,

171
00:08:48,159 --> 00:08:52,080
And I know it's a good name, that's a good

172
00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:53,960
name if that's a playoff.

173
00:08:53,919 --> 00:08:55,559
Speaker 5: One of the best of all time.

174
00:08:55,399 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 1: Fantastic, But he shouts you out for the five percent

175
00:09:00,039 --> 00:09:01,039
and the four percent win.

176
00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:02,200
Speaker 5: Yeh.

177
00:09:02,919 --> 00:09:06,519
Speaker 1: I've got some concerns with the Cubs right now. The

178
00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:10,480
just like a like, the body language is horrible if

179
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,399
you watch that get I don't know what Kyle Tucker's

180
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,399
deal is. I feel like he's just like like soft,

181
00:09:17,519 --> 00:09:20,159
like not mentally tough at this point. And then you've

182
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,679
got of course, you know, they go out and trade.

183
00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:24,879
And now Mike sarkis headed to the i L, where

184
00:09:24,919 --> 00:09:26,639
he's spent the majority of his career.

185
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,759
Speaker 2: I actually feel horrible for him.

186
00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,320
Speaker 1: That is, that just sucks for him because he's finally

187
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,559
gotten you know, kind of gotten back.

188
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,639
Speaker 2: He's having a good season, and back to the i

189
00:09:36,879 --> 00:09:39,200
L he goes. So they're gonna have to figure out, uh,

190
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:40,159
what to do about.

191
00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:44,039
Speaker 1: That rotation spot at this price, the way things are

192
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,200
sort of going for the Cubs at the moment, there's

193
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:48,799
no chance I could play the Cubs here.

194
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:49,120
Speaker 4: Now.

195
00:09:49,159 --> 00:09:52,240
Speaker 1: Brian makes a good point. I I got caught on

196
00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,240
one of those last night. I had the raise with

197
00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,879
Adrian Hauser. Awful And he's right like that that that's

198
00:09:57,919 --> 00:10:02,799
a concern. It It's definitely happened so far. These guys,

199
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,519
the pitchers that are getting to their new destination have

200
00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:10,960
not been very good. So again, I do have some

201
00:10:11,279 --> 00:10:14,120
concerns with the Cubs. You pull up the standings, they're

202
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,679
still tied with the Dodgers for the second best record

203
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:17,240
in the league.

204
00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:19,120
Speaker 2: But I've got to go back five weeks.

205
00:10:19,159 --> 00:10:22,039
Speaker 1: There was a there was a time where I said

206
00:10:22,039 --> 00:10:23,759
the Cubs are going to run away with this division.

207
00:10:24,159 --> 00:10:26,600
Now they're three back of the Brewers, and they're the

208
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,799
clear second team at this point. If you've watched the

209
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,120
Brewers play and you've watched the Cubs play, I mean

210
00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:35,320
it's like not close. The Brewers appear to be the

211
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,840
far better team. So yeah, I have some concerns with

212
00:10:37,919 --> 00:10:40,840
this Cubs team, and there's no chance I can lay

213
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,519
a price like that, So it would be reds or pass.

214
00:10:43,879 --> 00:10:47,279
Bryan said, he retweets some stuff. I don't retweet often.

215
00:10:47,519 --> 00:10:50,919
I tweet a lot. I don't just retweet stuffed often often.

216
00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,200
But I did have to retweet Max Freed firing the

217
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,240
ball in the center field last night because why not.

218
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 2: I mean, it just continues to get bad for the Yankees.

219
00:11:02,879 --> 00:11:05,120
Speaker 1: Uh, they take a lead into the ninth Brian Leonard

220
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:09,279
and then David Williams comes in, gives the game up

221
00:11:09,879 --> 00:11:14,960
and Josh Jones Josh Younges Josh Younges batflip hasn't landed yet.

222
00:11:15,039 --> 00:11:18,000
Three run homer he threw the bat basically off the

223
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:19,120
roof of the stadium.

224
00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:21,200
Speaker 2: It was awesome, and.

225
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,159
Speaker 1: It's been it's been a tough weekend for the Yankees.

226
00:11:25,399 --> 00:11:28,679
They get their guy back tonight, supposedly Aaron Judge back

227
00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:33,440
in the lineup today today. Yeah, but who wants any

228
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:34,919
part of this Yankees team right now?

229
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 2: Even with Judge? What do you think, Brian.

230
00:11:38,279 --> 00:11:41,600
Speaker 3: Current line in this one Yankees of Texas. We've got

231
00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,679
Will Warren, who's up and down more than just about

232
00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,159
anybody in baseball, going against Nathan Eovaldi, who has been

233
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,480
the most consistent pitcher in the major leagues.

234
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:52,679
Speaker 4: You know what you're gonna get out of Texas. You

235
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,679
don't know what you're gonna get out of the Yankees here.

236
00:11:55,600 --> 00:12:00,200
Speaker 3: Eovaldi's about a one twenty three favorite total of eight

237
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,320
to the over or eight and a half to the under.

238
00:12:02,399 --> 00:12:02,639
Speaker 4: Here.

239
00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,840
Speaker 3: I've talked about Texas being a really good pitchers ballpark.

240
00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,120
I think Ivaldi will continue to have some success there.

241
00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:14,320
But when you take a look at the way these

242
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,759
teams have gone so far, the Yankees are definitely needing

243
00:12:17,799 --> 00:12:21,240
that boost of getting getting him back, and normally it

244
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,440
takes some time when you come back from sitting out,

245
00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:26,960
so I wouldn't expect him to, you know, hit a

246
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,919
homer or anything like that tonight. It's gonna take a

247
00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:31,639
little bit for him to get back in the groove.

248
00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 4: Will Warren, I've.

249
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,639
Speaker 3: Talked about his inconsistencies four point sixty four e r

250
00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,159
A four point zero nine expected one point four to

251
00:12:40,159 --> 00:12:43,200
three whip. You take a look at his game logs.

252
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,840
His last two have been pretty good. He placed the face,

253
00:12:46,879 --> 00:12:49,440
the Phillies and the Rays. Before that, he got bombed

254
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,480
by the Braves a couple of good ones before that.

255
00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:58,679
Then he'd gotten bombed by Toronto. He's a walking time bomb.

256
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,799
There's there's some I follow on podcasts of stuff that

257
00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:05,639
are in the fantasy world. They call him a cherry

258
00:13:05,639 --> 00:13:08,559
bomb because he could be really good all the side.

259
00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,159
He just blows up, and that's what he's done. His

260
00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,360
off speed run value for Will Warren is in the

261
00:13:14,399 --> 00:13:19,120
first percentile, breaking ball run value in the ninth average

262
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,039
ex velocity, fifteenth, chase rate, thirteenth, walks too many people

263
00:13:23,039 --> 00:13:24,799
in the eighteenth hard hit twenty second.

264
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:26,799
Speaker 4: He's not a guy I'm looking to back.

265
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,399
Speaker 3: It's it's just something that you want more consistency, than

266
00:13:31,399 --> 00:13:34,919
what he has gotten. You know, he's had two seasons now,

267
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,120
he's got a five point six ORA, one point five

268
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:37,720
to one WHIP.

269
00:13:38,159 --> 00:13:38,960
Speaker 4: I don't care who you.

270
00:13:38,879 --> 00:13:42,200
Speaker 3: Play for, even if you're playing for Colorado, those are

271
00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,159
not good numbers. So I want no part of will

272
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,960
Warren Eovaldi, as I said, the most consistent pitcher in baseball.

273
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,360
One point four to nine ERA obviously is expected. The

274
00:13:53,519 --> 00:13:55,399
ra is going to be higher three point twenty six.

275
00:13:56,279 --> 00:13:57,600
He's not going to end the year with a one

276
00:13:57,639 --> 00:13:59,919
point four nine ERA, but you know, the last two

277
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,399
years he was three point eight three point sixty three.

278
00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:08,000
And the way this stadium has been the results this year,

279
00:14:08,519 --> 00:14:10,519
he could keep it around the two to two and

280
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:12,720
a half range at the end of the season, and

281
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:16,240
that's excellent. All his numbers are great. Pitching run value

282
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,919
ninety nine percent, tile fastball run value ninety fourth, recky

283
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,279
run value ninety second, off speed ninety eighth. He's good

284
00:14:23,399 --> 00:14:26,879
basically everything he does. He doesn't overthrow the four seamer,

285
00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,240
and his fastball is ninety four percent for ninety four

286
00:14:31,279 --> 00:14:33,840
miles an hour, and which is about a mile an

287
00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:36,159
hour worse than measor League Baseball. But it only throws

288
00:14:36,159 --> 00:14:37,799
at twenty eight percent of the time. He's basically a

289
00:14:37,799 --> 00:14:40,600
four pisce pitcher and he's had a lot of success.

290
00:14:40,679 --> 00:14:43,519
I would look for more of that here. The Yankees

291
00:14:43,519 --> 00:14:46,279
are not a team and looking to back. Texas needs

292
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,559
this win just as bad, if not more than the

293
00:14:48,639 --> 00:14:52,240
Yankees do. Texas trying to fight their way past the

294
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,279
Yankees here in that wildcard race. This is a huge,

295
00:14:56,919 --> 00:15:02,399
huge series for Texas after struggling against Seattle. They need

296
00:15:02,399 --> 00:15:05,039
to really come out and win the series against the Yankees.

297
00:15:05,039 --> 00:15:09,600
I like Texas here, and I think there's value here

298
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,519
anything in the one twenty three year under range. I

299
00:15:12,519 --> 00:15:14,720
think you've got some nice value here on Texas.

300
00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, Will Warren might have the biggest dichotomy and splits

301
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,360
home road away. He's two eight eight. He's got a

302
00:15:24,399 --> 00:15:26,240
two eight eight e RA at home and a seven

303
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,080
two oe er in the road, so he is absolutely

304
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,279
stunk on the road. The problem is against these Texas

305
00:15:32,279 --> 00:15:35,120
batters in his career, He's only got twenty two at

306
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,600
bats against, but he did pretty well, holding him to

307
00:15:37,639 --> 00:15:40,879
two twenty seven and a five thirty four ohps. So

308
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,360
kind of torn on this one, like Brian, said, Evaldi,

309
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,840
He's good no matter what. I actually wasn't a huge

310
00:15:48,879 --> 00:15:52,799
Evaldi fan when he pitched for Boston and in the past.

311
00:15:52,879 --> 00:15:56,320
But this year, I don't know test that guy. Something's

312
00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:00,000
going on. Man, he's just a different guy this year.

313
00:16:01,799 --> 00:16:05,720
But yeah, that being said, I don't know which Will

314
00:16:05,759 --> 00:16:08,200
Warren's gonna show up. Is it gonna be the road

315
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,639
Will Warren or the guy who's good against these batters?

316
00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:15,039
Will Warren sample size against these batters is not real,

317
00:16:15,399 --> 00:16:20,080
real large, so I would think the horrible road Will

318
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,399
Warren will show up here. But I'm not gonna I'm

319
00:16:22,399 --> 00:16:24,919
not gonna test that. I'm gonna go with what I know.

320
00:16:25,039 --> 00:16:28,360
And I know Ivaldi is good. I know Ivaldi has

321
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:34,559
good stats against these Yankees. Uh and Texas's bullpen is

322
00:16:34,799 --> 00:16:37,759
playing pretty well. So I think the Yankees team total

323
00:16:37,879 --> 00:16:41,200
under I think it's four and a half. If it's

324
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:42,759
four and a half, I'll jump all over it. If

325
00:16:42,759 --> 00:16:44,279
it's three and a half, I'll think about it. But

326
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:45,759
that would be the way I would lean in this.

327
00:16:45,679 --> 00:16:48,559
Speaker 4: One three and a half to the over minus one thirty.

328
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,039
Speaker 5: And I'll have to think about it.

329
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 1: If you told me Will Warren was gonna be starting

330
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,320
games for the Yankees in August. I would have set

331
00:16:58,399 --> 00:17:00,720
up at the beginning of the season, and I always said, wow,

332
00:17:00,879 --> 00:17:02,879
he must he must have had a breakout year that

333
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,440
you know, he must have. He must be just dealing,

334
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,279
and he must have forced his way into that rotation

335
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,039
because last year he got called up and he got

336
00:17:10,079 --> 00:17:12,839
crushed and I had, you know, I felt like he

337
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:14,720
was a guy that beat Scranton for most of the

338
00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:16,759
year and you would have to pitch his way into

339
00:17:16,799 --> 00:17:19,599
the rotation. Well that didn't happen because the Yankees had

340
00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:23,640
numerous injuries to their rotation. And you know, here we

341
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,000
are in August, and the Yankees are supposedly a playoff team,

342
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,880
even though the three of us don't really think they're

343
00:17:29,079 --> 00:17:32,079
necessarily a playoff team, and Will Warren is still starting

344
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,960
games every fifth day, four six four yr one point

345
00:17:35,039 --> 00:17:37,799
four to three whip. It hasn't been hasn't been terrible,

346
00:17:38,079 --> 00:17:41,960
but it's also like, you know, not like I still

347
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,680
think the Yankees get positioned at this as this elite

348
00:17:44,759 --> 00:17:46,960
team or as like one of the elite teams, and

349
00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:49,440
yet that's what they're throwing out there every fifth day.

350
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,599
So that's Issue number one. Issue number two and I

351
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,039
was I was anti. I was anti like a lot

352
00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:58,480
of Yankee fans and a lot of just people in general.

353
00:17:58,599 --> 00:18:01,440
It really dislike Aaron Boone and I was never on that.

354
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,920
I never liked that sort of narrative because I do

355
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:06,759
think that, you know, the players like him, and I

356
00:18:06,799 --> 00:18:09,039
think he brings other things to the table there. But

357
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:14,720
at some point, like the just the lack of like

358
00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:19,480
baseball IQ and just mistake, like someone needs to fall

359
00:18:19,519 --> 00:18:21,240
on the sword for that, and it's probably got to

360
00:18:21,279 --> 00:18:24,680
be the coach. Like here, I'll just make a point

361
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,200
last year to this year, the Yankees did a lot

362
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,759
of this same stuff last year, base running mistakes, errors,

363
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,160
stuff like that, but they made it to the World

364
00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:36,119
Series and it didn't it didn't come back to bite

365
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,559
them as much because they were a better team. Last

366
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,680
year's Yankees team was just better than this year's Yankees team.

367
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:47,799
Juan Soto, they more timely, hitting, a little bit more

368
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,960
bullpen like in terms of like the numbers were better.

369
00:18:51,039 --> 00:18:53,759
So so they had a better team last year and

370
00:18:53,799 --> 00:18:56,720
they were able to overcome the mistakes. The team isn't

371
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,759
as good this year. They've been without Aaron Judge for

372
00:18:58,799 --> 00:19:02,599
what about two weeks now, and listen, it's major League baseball.

373
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,759
It's very difficult to overcome getting picked off. For Josh

374
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,960
Chisholm getting picked off first base, just sleeping Austin Wells,

375
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,000
forgetting that there's three outs in an inning, Max Freed

376
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,480
firing a ball in the center field in a spot

377
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,279
where he probably didn't even really need to do that

378
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,799
at that point in the game, just bear down and

379
00:19:20,839 --> 00:19:23,160
get the out, Like what are we doing here? So

380
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,160
that's the type of stuff where like they don't have

381
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,880
the roster to overcome that this year. You can't make

382
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,759
two three errs a game, in my opinion, with this

383
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:37,319
Yankees team and overcome that. So for that reason, I'm

384
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,519
just going to continue to play against the Yankees until

385
00:19:39,519 --> 00:19:40,400
further notice.

386
00:19:40,599 --> 00:19:42,519
Speaker 2: It would have to be Rangers or pass here.

387
00:19:42,839 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 1: And with how consistently good Eabaldi's been, and now that

388
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,559
the Rangers have a little momentum, this might be the

389
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,680
leg I throw in the parlay. I'll think about it

390
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,319
as the show goes on. Ethan says, so glad I

391
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,519
passed on my leans of the Giants and Yankees yesterday. Hey,

392
00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:58,839
sometimes leaving one off is as good as a win

393
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:01,559
in the long run. If you can, if you can

394
00:20:01,599 --> 00:20:04,640
avoid a loss, it is as good as a win.

395
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,319
Speaker 2: So Rangers are passed for me. Uh in that one.

396
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,960
It will circle back. We have a comment here.

397
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: Let drig sporting the Chickens. That's not a chicken. I

398
00:20:15,039 --> 00:20:16,799
guess it could be a type of chicken. Anyone knows

399
00:20:16,799 --> 00:20:20,799
what that is. It's a good guess. It's it's it's

400
00:20:20,839 --> 00:20:23,599
not Louisville, but it's a good guess. Brian Leonard, you

401
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:24,759
got do you have the team?

402
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:25,519
Speaker 5: No?

403
00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 4: I don't.

404
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,519
Speaker 2: That is the hen close.

405
00:20:30,839 --> 00:20:33,759
Speaker 1: It's the Rochester red Wings. So I don't know what

406
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:36,039
a red Wing is. Is that a chicken or is it.

407
00:20:36,039 --> 00:20:37,799
Speaker 4: Just a cardinal? Right?

408
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 5: It's a Detroit play.

409
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:45,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess so anyway, Yeah, Rochester red Wings triple

410
00:20:45,599 --> 00:20:51,240
a affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Great little ballpark about

411
00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:54,319
ninety minutes from about hour and forty five minutes from

412
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:54,839
where I live.

413
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 5: To be Nationals hats.

414
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 2: I don't own a Nationals hat.

415
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,599
Speaker 1: I've actually that's a ballpark they've never been to. I'll

416
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:09,640
get down of DC sometimes, all right, turnbucle Tommy Astros

417
00:21:09,759 --> 00:21:12,480
was free last night. You can't take the Marlins as

418
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,880
a favorite. Astros at one fifteen was nuts. They are

419
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:20,240
significantly better teams. So I agree, I agree.

420
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 2: With some of that.

421
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,279
Speaker 1: I disagree with some of that. Significantly better team, I don't.

422
00:21:24,319 --> 00:21:26,400
I disagree that that. I'll disagree.

423
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,079
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't think they are significantly better. Now.

424
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,920
If you want to say, like you know, based on

425
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,000
full body of work this year, that they're better than

426
00:21:33,039 --> 00:21:34,839
the market Marlins, I can live with that.

427
00:21:35,319 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: However, I do think it was turnbucle Tommy yesterday that

428
00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:42,039
was basically like, you can't bet the Marlins at that price,

429
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,599
And in hindsight, I kind of agree with that a

430
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,200
little bit. Like where the market ended up on that game,

431
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,359
I think they were man. I think the Marlins got

432
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,640
all the way up to a dollar thirty favorite at

433
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,279
one point, Brian Leonard and and lo and behold, like

434
00:21:56,519 --> 00:21:58,799
you kind of just knew what was coming, and especially

435
00:21:58,839 --> 00:22:01,799
and then early in the game very apparent that the

436
00:22:02,599 --> 00:22:04,599
juice had run out a little bit for the Marlins

437
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,319
and the Astro's got a much needed win.

438
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 2: But today is a new day. This one's interesting.

439
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: Raghetty is back, and Cal Quantrill has looked better than

440
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,720
he's supposed to look recently. Do you see Astros getting

441
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,880
some momentum here or do you like the Marlins in

442
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:21,400
this one?

443
00:22:22,039 --> 00:22:24,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, yesterday, if you tuned in for the first time

444
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,960
and you saw what I was leaning towards or whatever,

445
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,960
I could have gone over the entire day. I talked

446
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,079
about Baltimore. Baltimore took that three or nothing late. I thought, Oh,

447
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,079
I'm feeling pretty good, and then all of a sudden

448
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:39,720
they give up what ten eleven straight run?

449
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:41,599
Speaker 4: Fourteenth straight run? So crazy?

450
00:22:42,599 --> 00:22:46,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing I touched yesterday work, So I apologize for that.

451
00:22:46,319 --> 00:22:49,200
You have those kind of days every once in a while.

452
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:58,279
But Houston on the road against Miami. I had Miami yesterday.

453
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,240
I used him in my parlay and agave him does

454
00:23:00,279 --> 00:23:04,079
the smaller play for clients and my free play. Houston

455
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,720
is basically about a one ten, one fifteenth favorite according

456
00:23:08,759 --> 00:23:13,759
to our line service oddslogic dot com an excellent line service.

457
00:23:14,039 --> 00:23:17,440
They don't have Houston's starting picture listed going against Quantrell

458
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,960
total on this is eight. Have you heard anything else

459
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:27,799
as to Houston and who they're starting, Adam your muted.

460
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,839
Speaker 1: I thought it might be Spencer Raghetty, who's been rehabbing.

461
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,759
I think it's like his turn so that was one.

462
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 2: I had jotted down.

463
00:23:36,799 --> 00:23:39,319
Speaker 1: But I actually if it's not him, then I'm not

464
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:40,880
really quite sure who they're going to go with.

465
00:23:41,599 --> 00:23:41,799
Speaker 4: Yeah.

466
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 3: I like Arraghetty, but I don't know if it's going

467
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,599
to be his start or not. I talked about Quatrill

468
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,519
on the road. Yes, on the road.

469
00:23:51,079 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: Sorry, let me can I jump in real quick?

470
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 1: Yes, but it's so one of the beat writers tweeted,

471
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,720
Araghetty's been pushed back to Wednesday, So it looks like

472
00:24:00,759 --> 00:24:03,160
a true bullpen game for the Astros today.

473
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,279
Speaker 3: Well, then the first thing we need to check out

474
00:24:05,559 --> 00:24:09,839
is the Astros bullpen availability, and you can do that

475
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:19,599
over a fang Roster resources. Great, great website here. Okay,

476
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,880
the Astros, when you take a look at their bullpen,

477
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,279
they look at pretty good shape. Yesterday I bray you

478
00:24:25,599 --> 00:24:30,000
seventeen pitches, King twenty six pitches, Petri Nora and Ares,

479
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,400
who has been a nice pick up for them, sixteen pitches,

480
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,720
so they're in pretty good shape here. They've got nobody

481
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,079
that's pitched two games in a row here or pitched

482
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,839
two out of three, so they're in pretty good shape

483
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:44,400
here from a bullpen standpoint, and they have a pretty

484
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:49,319
decent bullpen. We'll see how that goes for them. When

485
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,079
I take a look at the sad cast numbers here

486
00:24:53,599 --> 00:25:00,759
I've talked about calla Quantrill four point seventy nine, four

487
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:05,240
point eight, oh expected one point three to one whip.

488
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,319
He's doesn't walk any better, seventy seventh percentile in that

489
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,960
regard six point four walks. Not a big strikeout guy,

490
00:25:12,519 --> 00:25:15,880
although it is higher than has been since twenty twenty one,

491
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,599
so he's getting a little bit more strikeouts, but he's

492
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,279
not a stracted guy. He's gonna try to keep it

493
00:25:20,279 --> 00:25:23,519
a little bit off balance. Throws six different pitches eight

494
00:25:23,559 --> 00:25:25,960
percent or high on nothing more than twenty two percent,

495
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,839
which is his cutter. So he's a guy I find

496
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,920
value in guys that aren't major strikeout pitchers. I think

497
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,240
a lot of people give up on him, and.

498
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,759
Speaker 4: He's a guy I like. He was very good as

499
00:25:37,799 --> 00:25:38,200
of late.

500
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: But it was pointed out that Houston coming back, and

501
00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:46,559
line's basically a pick him right now.

502
00:25:48,079 --> 00:25:50,799
Speaker 4: With that number, I kind of like Miami a little

503
00:25:50,839 --> 00:25:51,160
bit here.

504
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 3: I won't get it, probably won't get involved, not enough

505
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,960
for a Quantrill to shout out Houston's offense. So I'll

506
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,440
probably pass here until we actually find out what's going on.

507
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,279
If it's a bullpen game, I would expect the Miami

508
00:26:05,319 --> 00:26:07,960
side to take some money. So if you like Miami

509
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:09,640
and you think it's going to be a bullpen game

510
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,799
right now, you know a pinnacle you can get plus

511
00:26:11,799 --> 00:26:14,599
one on one for the home home team, So that's

512
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:15,039
not bad.

513
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 5: Five dollars Tuesday, guys, get our best bets for five bucks.

514
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,880
All of us will probably have one mind's out already,

515
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,839
and along with our five dollars plays, all three of

516
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:29,920
us usually put out a free play as well. So

517
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:33,400
go check our page. It's scrolling down there at the bottom.

518
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,960
Take ten seconds and see what we got at least

519
00:26:36,039 --> 00:26:42,160
at least swoop up our free plays there. So without

520
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,039
a starter listed for the Astros, I'm going to find

521
00:26:45,079 --> 00:26:47,640
it hard to bet this game, but I will share

522
00:26:47,799 --> 00:26:56,400
my rankings. Cal Quantrell gets a really bad rap, but

523
00:26:57,799 --> 00:27:02,079
his numbers are not as bad as his reputation, and

524
00:27:02,599 --> 00:27:06,279
his numbers against the Astros are not horrible. They're not good,

525
00:27:06,319 --> 00:27:09,640
they're not horrible. In his career two eighty nine average

526
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,680
against It's yeah, it's pretty bad. Seven ninety seven oh ps,

527
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,680
So anything over seven fifty is not good and he

528
00:27:16,759 --> 00:27:21,079
ranks in the bottom one third of pitchers, So the

529
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,599
problem is the Astros are not really tearing the cover

530
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,839
off the ball right now. I got him ranked nineteen

531
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,720
in batting. I got Miami ranked better at hitting better

532
00:27:29,759 --> 00:27:34,480
in the bullpen, but they're starting a very questionable picture,

533
00:27:34,599 --> 00:27:39,880
so I would definitely not play a side here. One

534
00:27:40,039 --> 00:27:43,960
interesting thing is cal Quantrell. He doesn't strike people out.

535
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,240
He's a very low strikeout guy. In his career against

536
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,599
this team. He's averaging only two point three strikeouts per

537
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,039
start against the Astros, and I projected him at three

538
00:27:54,039 --> 00:27:57,680
point seven today. So maybe if his strikeout prop if

539
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,559
you're lucky enough to get a four and a half,

540
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,079
bet that the under in strikeouts for Calica Quantrell. If

541
00:28:04,079 --> 00:28:07,160
it's three and a half m that's exactly what I'm

542
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,319
predicting it, so I'd lay off. That would be the

543
00:28:09,319 --> 00:28:10,359
only way I would go here.

544
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,799
Speaker 3: I do want to point out and as last fourteen starts,

545
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,759
he's allowed three earned runs or less in thirteen of

546
00:28:17,799 --> 00:28:22,680
the fourteen, So yeah, I just he got rick pretty

547
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:27,000
well early in the season, but now he's pitching much better.

548
00:28:27,039 --> 00:28:29,119
So I think you need to you need to take

549
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,039
those year to date numbers a little bit with a

550
00:28:31,079 --> 00:28:31,839
grund salt.

551
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, and also, like I said, he's not as bad

552
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:36,799
as his reputation.

553
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: Well yeah, I mean, so you do know who's starting

554
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,519
for the Astros. You know, you know it's just a

555
00:28:43,559 --> 00:28:46,640
bullpen game. They've already they pretty much announced that. So

556
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,799
it's it's really just do you like the Astros collection

557
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,119
of depth arms in their bullpen's That's how you evaluate

558
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:56,640
the Astros pitching here.

559
00:28:56,839 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: I am kind of indifferent on that.

560
00:28:59,079 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: I think they could pretend piece it together, but like

561
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,839
it's definitely something that I'm not like really scared.

562
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:05,279
Speaker 2: To play against.

563
00:29:05,839 --> 00:29:07,839
Speaker 1: Now, you talked about Quantrill one of the things I

564
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,720
talked about after his last start. I mean, he was

565
00:29:09,759 --> 00:29:14,799
throwing like ninety seven. That was like really impressive. I again,

566
00:29:15,039 --> 00:29:17,440
I'm willing to trust what the Marlins are doing with

567
00:29:17,519 --> 00:29:20,880
their their pitching at all levels at this point, and

568
00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:23,640
you got cal Quantrell coming out throwing ninety I think

569
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,720
he touched ninety seven ninety eight on the on the

570
00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:27,920
gun in his last start.

571
00:29:28,279 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: Start before that, he was very solid.

572
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,319
Speaker 1: I believe he beat the Brewers on the road, so

573
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:34,480
he's looked pretty good.

574
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:38,119
Speaker 2: I don't. I guess I'm a little bit.

575
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: Concerned that I step in and then he maybe regresses

576
00:29:41,519 --> 00:29:43,519
a little bit, because we know, you know, he's had

577
00:29:43,759 --> 00:29:47,000
stretches where he's not great. But I think the bigger

578
00:29:47,079 --> 00:29:50,720
concern here for me is the Marlins had played so

579
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:55,039
well last week they lost, and with these younger teams,

580
00:29:55,519 --> 00:29:58,279
sometimes one loss becomes two, becomes three, so on and

581
00:29:58,279 --> 00:29:58,720
so forth.

582
00:29:58,799 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: So my decision was easy here.

583
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,559
Speaker 1: I thought this might be Arraghetty, and he was someone

584
00:30:03,559 --> 00:30:06,799
that I didn't think threw the ball particularly well down

585
00:30:06,839 --> 00:30:10,079
at sugar Land. Granted he went up against a very

586
00:30:10,119 --> 00:30:12,640
good to COMBA lineup last week, but they were all

587
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,039
over him. I was certain that they would have had

588
00:30:15,119 --> 00:30:18,000
him start one more game down at sugar Land.

589
00:30:18,039 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: It looks like that's not going to be the case.

590
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: So most likely going to be a spectator here, and

591
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,720
I'll see if I can find a way in tomorrow,

592
00:30:24,839 --> 00:30:28,559
because again I think if the Marlins had a little

593
00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:31,519
bit of momentum tonight, tomorrow might be the day to

594
00:30:31,599 --> 00:30:34,200
play them. Raghetty did not look good in his most

595
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,839
recent rehab start.

596
00:30:36,039 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on.

597
00:30:37,039 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: We have Ethan Bainbridge, says White, Sox plus one and

598
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,599
a half, a day off with short travel for the Socks.

599
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,160
Mariners off three straight divisional series in a very tight

600
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,920
division race, took three or four in the most recent

601
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,359
series for Texas, momentum stopper.

602
00:30:53,039 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 2: With the day off.

603
00:30:53,839 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, not only did they take three or four from Texas, Ethan,

604
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,680
but they easily could have lost three of four. That

605
00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:04,079
was a very very competitive series and it was a

606
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,799
one of those ones where the Mariners just got the

607
00:31:06,839 --> 00:31:09,680
breaks they I believe that. On Sunday, I think Brian,

608
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,240
they won two challenges in the ninth inning to hold

609
00:31:13,279 --> 00:31:16,000
off a five for our win, so game of inches.

610
00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:18,960
As we always talk about the Mariners, you know, you

611
00:31:19,039 --> 00:31:21,000
make your own luck to an extent, But the Mariners

612
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,960
got the breaks this weekend. And yeah, so maybe they

613
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,720
are a little bit inflated here. White Sox a team

614
00:31:26,759 --> 00:31:29,960
we've liked, team that's played better. How are you seeing

615
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,240
this one? Do you agree with Ethan's assessment of White

616
00:31:32,279 --> 00:31:33,400
Sox plus one and a half?

617
00:31:33,799 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: Well, if you don't take one and a half, you

618
00:31:35,319 --> 00:31:37,240
want to do so in a low total game, and

619
00:31:37,279 --> 00:31:39,119
that's what you're getting here. You're getting seven and a

620
00:31:39,119 --> 00:31:42,319
half under twenty between the White Sox and seat. I've

621
00:31:42,359 --> 00:31:49,119
got Martin going against Wu Woo's two fifty range here,

622
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,319
which is a little bit higher than I want to play.

623
00:31:53,359 --> 00:31:56,519
Because the White Sox offense is playing a lot better

624
00:31:56,559 --> 00:31:59,720
than it was earlier in the season. They finally got

625
00:31:59,799 --> 00:32:03,759
an actual major league lineup, so to catch them, you

626
00:32:03,799 --> 00:32:06,279
can catch upwards of two twenty coming back that way.

627
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:09,000
That would be the only way I would look here.

628
00:32:10,039 --> 00:32:13,759
Brian wu is a pitcher I really love, but lately

629
00:32:14,319 --> 00:32:19,480
he's he's had some up and down games. Last time out,

630
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,799
he gave up five earned runs and six and a

631
00:32:21,839 --> 00:32:26,079
third against the Athletics. Before that, against the Angels, he

632
00:32:26,119 --> 00:32:27,920
was pretty good. But he got hit pretty well against

633
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,200
the Astros four and runs the sixth innings, So he's

634
00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:35,519
not on his best behavior as of now. But three

635
00:32:35,519 --> 00:32:37,960
point one one ERA coming on the heels of a

636
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,000
two point eight nine last year. This is a guy

637
00:32:41,039 --> 00:32:44,680
that could pitch and and I love him. But Barrel

638
00:32:44,759 --> 00:32:48,640
Ray twenty seventh percentile breaking ball run value twelve. He

639
00:32:48,759 --> 00:32:51,559
can be hit, still throws a f four seamer too much.

640
00:32:51,599 --> 00:32:54,440
If you ask me, forty five percent of the times

641
00:32:54,519 --> 00:32:57,319
it is a little bit stronger than league average. But

642
00:32:58,599 --> 00:33:01,400
when you throw those fast balls, anybody can hit him,

643
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,559
even a team like the Chicago White Sox. Davis Martin

644
00:33:05,119 --> 00:33:07,079
going for the White Sox is the Ray is now

645
00:33:07,119 --> 00:33:09,480
down below four on the season. Three point eighty four

646
00:33:10,079 --> 00:33:12,519
was expected theras five point three three. He's been a

647
00:33:12,559 --> 00:33:15,880
little bit lucky one point twenty six whip. If you

648
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,039
look at his stat cast page. He's a great ground

649
00:33:18,039 --> 00:33:21,079
ball pitcher eighty eighth PERCENTLE. Doesn't walk a lot of

650
00:33:21,079 --> 00:33:24,119
players seventy first PERCENTLE. But everything else is in the blue.

651
00:33:25,319 --> 00:33:30,559
Breaking run value sixth percentl expected the RA eighth betting average,

652
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:35,720
fourth walk, hardhit raate eleventh, strike out ray twelfth In

653
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,279
fact is strike out minus walk RADE is less than

654
00:33:38,359 --> 00:33:41,920
ten nine point seven. He's not as good as what

655
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,559
he has shown from that era that he has right now,

656
00:33:45,799 --> 00:33:48,160
so I would expect Seattle to have a little bit

657
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,480
of success against him. You would expect WU to bounce

658
00:33:51,559 --> 00:33:53,960
back a little bit, but he's not coming in off

659
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:59,039
of a good run. One and a half here for

660
00:33:59,359 --> 00:34:02,839
the White Sox would be a value if I thought

661
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:08,760
Martin co Would keep Seattle to you know, four runs.

662
00:34:09,039 --> 00:34:12,880
If it gets to five, that means the White size

663
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,960
need to score four runs to get the cover. I

664
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,840
don't know if they will here. So I laaned Chicago

665
00:34:18,039 --> 00:34:19,519
with that one and a half, but not enough to

666
00:34:19,519 --> 00:34:20,119
make it a play.

667
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 5: So I looked at Davis Martin's stats against these Seattle batters,

668
00:34:28,119 --> 00:34:31,000
and he's got twenty eight at bats against, one forty

669
00:34:31,039 --> 00:34:34,519
three average against and a four fifty oh ps. That's

670
00:34:34,599 --> 00:34:38,599
three hundred points less than the Mendoza line for good

671
00:34:38,679 --> 00:34:43,360
or bad. So he has absolutely dominated these Seattle batters. Now,

672
00:34:44,039 --> 00:34:46,159
is the sample size big enough to trust it? Is

673
00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:50,599
the next question? And also is his four point seven

674
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,840
road er going to trump those numbers? Yes or no?

675
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,719
So it's a little bit of a little bit of

676
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,960
a conundrum there, so I'm probably going to stay away

677
00:35:00,119 --> 00:35:02,559
from it. But Seattle's bats have been a little bit cold,

678
00:35:02,599 --> 00:35:08,519
that's something to consider. Chicago has been actually hitting the

679
00:35:08,559 --> 00:35:12,440
ball quite well. Considering they're a very bad team, they

680
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,360
have been hitting the ball well, and WU has really

681
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,800
good numbers against them. But his sample size is really small.

682
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:24,199
So despite giving up what is it, four two five

683
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,719
earned in his last three starts something like that, his

684
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,800
whip is still zero nine to seven, which is pretty

685
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,119
amazing and his home ERA is two two nine, which

686
00:35:34,159 --> 00:35:37,800
is really good. Although era is not the tell all statistic,

687
00:35:38,559 --> 00:35:40,760
but in a lot of in forty plus innings, if

688
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,599
your ERA is two one one, it certainly says that

689
00:35:43,679 --> 00:35:47,719
you're keeping the ball in the park. So I would

690
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,119
think a first five innings under would be appropriate for

691
00:35:51,159 --> 00:35:54,000
this game. Uh, if you can get a four and

692
00:35:54,039 --> 00:35:56,760
a half under four and a half for the first five,

693
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,360
I think that's good. The first five team total for

694
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,840
Seattle two and a half, and I'm a little tempted

695
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,480
to take that. You have to juggle whether Martin's sample

696
00:36:06,559 --> 00:36:10,440
size against the Mariners is good enough to overcome his

697
00:36:10,559 --> 00:36:13,880
four point seven ROADI or a witch is which Seattle's

698
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:15,800
bats are pretty cold though, so I might I might

699
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,360
go with that Seattle team total first five under two.

700
00:36:19,199 --> 00:36:19,679
Speaker 4: And a half.

701
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Seattle has cool a little bit at the play,

702
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,239
and we've kind of talked about it this season. They're

703
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,760
definitely a team that is built more for the road

704
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,840
than their home ballpark, just with the way that they are,

705
00:36:33,039 --> 00:36:35,920
you know, the their very home run reliant, at least

706
00:36:36,039 --> 00:36:38,519
they they have been, and I don't really think a

707
00:36:38,639 --> 00:36:41,280
Gino and Naylor changed that. I still think it's a

708
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:45,119
team that that's very much just you know, waiting for that,

709
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:50,360
you know, that big blast to generate offense with Brian Davis.

710
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,400
Martin's not the guy that I want to back in

711
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,159
this rotation. So for me, this was a I know,

712
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:58,079
you got people are like, oh, he's gonna one hundred percent,

713
00:36:58,159 --> 00:37:00,280
come on here, sate White Sox one and a half. Well,

714
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,519
I'm not going to tell you to lay two dollars

715
00:37:02,519 --> 00:37:05,599
with the Mariners, that's for certain. But when I look

716
00:37:05,639 --> 00:37:09,000
at this series a three game set, this would probably

717
00:37:09,039 --> 00:37:12,039
be the least like the worst of the three spots

718
00:37:12,039 --> 00:37:15,639
for me. So if I look at this series Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,

719
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:17,599
I see like the White Sox plus one and a

720
00:37:17,639 --> 00:37:21,000
half is likely going to be playable all three days.

721
00:37:21,079 --> 00:37:23,119
It's probably gonna be right in this same range because

722
00:37:23,119 --> 00:37:27,000
you're looking at wu Kirby Gilbert for the Mariners, so

723
00:37:27,039 --> 00:37:29,400
you've got to think they're likely a two dollars favorite

724
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,280
or more in every one of those games. This would

725
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,360
be the least of the three, the my least favorite

726
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,880
spot of the three, So I'm probably not gonna play this.

727
00:37:39,119 --> 00:37:42,679
I will likely hope for a Mariner's convincing win, maybe

728
00:37:42,679 --> 00:37:44,679
actually like a two or three run win where they

729
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,960
use some bullpen because I just think there's gonna be

730
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:48,280
better spots to play the White Sox.

731
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 2: Later in the week, Go Ahead Bright.

732
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 3: Tokyo mentioned the Mendoza line by mistake, I think, but

733
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,239
do you do you guys know you're you know, you're

734
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,679
a little bit younger, trade you know what the Mendoza

735
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:10,199
line is and why it's it's called the Mendoza.

736
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,159
Speaker 1: Line is two hundred batting average, and it's called that

737
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:15,239
because it was it like a player named Mendoza was

738
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,679
either a career two hundred hitter. He was like always

739
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,719
at two hundred.

740
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 3: Veral Mendoza played in I believe it was the seventies

741
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:22,000
for the Pirates.

742
00:38:23,679 --> 00:38:24,639
Speaker 4: He is now.

743
00:38:26,599 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: He's now known for his bad hitting and people don't

744
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,679
even know what he what he's known for. But the

745
00:38:31,679 --> 00:38:35,840
reason why I point that out is the catcher for

746
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:43,599
the Indians or the Guardians he played yesterday, and it's

747
00:38:44,079 --> 00:38:47,199
it's a situation where he was mentioned at the game

748
00:38:47,639 --> 00:38:50,360
on on the game because his poor hitting and he's

749
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,159
been in the league for so long and let me

750
00:38:54,199 --> 00:38:56,559
just get up here and look at the stats here.

751
00:38:57,039 --> 00:39:02,559
But it's Uh, it's Austin Hedges and he's hitting like

752
00:39:02,599 --> 00:39:06,159
one thirty four and his career average is about one

753
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,239
eighty four. But yet he's playing in i think his

754
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,960
eleventh major league season and they said this is the

755
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:17,159
most games, most season since the player has ever played

756
00:39:17,159 --> 00:39:20,480
in the major leagues with a bad career batting average

757
00:39:20,519 --> 00:39:24,320
of below two hundred. And he's just a great defensive player,

758
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,440
but he's a terrible hitter. And when he gets and

759
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,599
when Hedgehog gets a hit up of you, you need

760
00:39:29,639 --> 00:39:30,679
to be a little bit embarrassed.

761
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:35,199
Speaker 2: That's a great story. Yeah, that's that's a really interesting Uh.

762
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,119
Speaker 1: It's not something I've never really thought about, but that

763
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,880
is totally makes sense that it would be a good

764
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,599
defensive catcher though, because that is like a you take

765
00:39:43,639 --> 00:39:45,039
the zero for three.

766
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: At the bottom of that order.

767
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 1: If you can have a guy that's really good defensive

768
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,199
catcher that can handle the pitching staff, control the run

769
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,639
game is far more valuable in my opinion, than a

770
00:39:53,639 --> 00:39:58,400
couple of hits. So that's interesting stuff. Brian, great, great stuff.

771
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:03,039
Let's go to Gene. He says, giants minus one thirty

772
00:40:03,079 --> 00:40:06,480
five with Webb looks cheap. How did you guys like

773
00:40:06,519 --> 00:40:10,000
that Bristol series. I thought the Bristol Series was a

774
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,719
great idea. They just got screwed by the weather. I

775
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:15,360
think if it was a nice night, it would have

776
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,199
gone off without a hitch. It would have been it

777
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,119
would have been a very fun sort of thing. I mean,

778
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,440
it just they kind of got screwed by the weather.

779
00:40:22,519 --> 00:40:24,760
But you know, always good to see baseball get a

780
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:29,639
showcase like that standalone National TV Fox Saturday Night. That

781
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,239
was cool as far as the game is concerned. Brian

782
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,599
Leonard Giants Pirates, This was an interesting This was a

783
00:40:34,639 --> 00:40:35,159
crazy one.

784
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 2: Yesterday.

785
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 1: Look like the Giants were going to cruise to a win,

786
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,199
and suddenly here come those Pittsburgh Pirates suddenly playing good

787
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:45,599
ball in spite of what I consider to be leaving

788
00:40:45,639 --> 00:40:47,519
some of their better players down at Triple A. Talked

789
00:40:47,519 --> 00:40:50,440
about it yesterday. So the Pirates get the walk off.

790
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,840
Do the Pirates bring that momentum into today? Do you

791
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:54,400
like them again?

792
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:54,639
Speaker 2: Here?

793
00:40:55,639 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: I'll talk about the Raceway game. First off, I'm a heavy,

794
00:41:00,119 --> 00:41:02,599
said guy. I like to eat, and there was a

795
00:41:02,599 --> 00:41:05,519
lot of people saying that they were serving hot dogs

796
00:41:05,519 --> 00:41:07,599
without the bunds because they didn't order enough bunds and

797
00:41:07,599 --> 00:41:10,480
they were sure they were selling nachos without cheese because

798
00:41:10,519 --> 00:41:13,239
they didn't have enough cheese. From what I could tell,

799
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,599
it was a complete disaster. It was a good idea,

800
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,079
but it was not well prepared for. They said it

801
00:41:19,119 --> 00:41:25,199
was the fire You remember that concert thing, firefat Yeah, yeah,

802
00:41:25,559 --> 00:41:27,239
of Major League Baseball.

803
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 4: But yeah, Web's going against Burrows here. Yeah. Webbs looks

804
00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:32,280
a little bit.

805
00:41:32,199 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 3: Cheap, but he has not been pitching well as yet late,

806
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,079
and he hasn't gotten a lot of runts apart. Burrows

807
00:41:38,159 --> 00:41:40,239
is a guy who's gotten better as the season goes on.

808
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,920
They keep talking about bringing some other guys up from

809
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,960
the miners, but Burrows has been one of the most

810
00:41:46,039 --> 00:41:50,239
consistent pitchers. He's done pretty well. Currentline, Webb's about a

811
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,800
one thirty three favorite and a total of seven and

812
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:56,400
a half to the under. The under makes a lot

813
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,000
of sense to me based on Webb's history and all

814
00:42:00,039 --> 00:42:03,639
also what's been going on with Burrows. And I don't

815
00:42:03,639 --> 00:42:06,719
think either team is very good offensively. They ever wants

816
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,159
a while these surprising and get ten runs or so,

817
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,679
but neither one really. He has been very good over

818
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:16,400
the last month or so. Logan Web three point three

819
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,119
one ERA, three point six to three expected, one point

820
00:42:19,159 --> 00:42:21,519
two five WEB. Yet he's only got a nine and

821
00:42:21,559 --> 00:42:24,880
eight record. In fact, the last three years he's won

822
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,559
thirty three games and he's lost thirty one games, and

823
00:42:28,599 --> 00:42:31,199
he's one of the top five pitchers in Major League Baseball,

824
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:35,280
just not getting any run support when he pitches. He's

825
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,719
got some great numbers out there. I really like him,

826
00:42:38,119 --> 00:42:39,960
but you know what you're gonna get out of him,

827
00:42:40,079 --> 00:42:42,440
and he's usually very consistent. And that's the one thing

828
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,800
we like about Logan Web going up against Mike Burrows here,

829
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,239
and Burrows is starting to show some red on his

830
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,239
datcast page. He's only got one win of the season.

831
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,719
One win yes last year, he's had thirteen games this year,

832
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,719
only well twelve starts, he's got one win. He's very

833
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,519
som Verlander, who, by the ways, pitching his best ball

834
00:43:03,559 --> 00:43:06,400
of the season. Really nice start from me yesterday. But

835
00:43:06,519 --> 00:43:09,920
Burrow's three point eight eighty RA expect at three point

836
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,960
sixty eight, his whip is one point twenty six. He's

837
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,440
a middling pitcher when you take a look at stat

838
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,280
cast page. Very good at offspreed run value ninety second

839
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:21,840
percentile doesn't get the chases of seventeen. Everything else is

840
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:25,480
between thirty four and sixty six percentile. So he's basically

841
00:43:25,559 --> 00:43:28,199
your league average pitcher. But I like the way he's

842
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:32,880
pitching more now. He's doing much better in that regard.

843
00:43:33,039 --> 00:43:34,719
Kind of like the under here. Don't think either team

844
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,639
is going to have much offensive success. Let's take a

845
00:43:37,639 --> 00:43:41,559
look at the ballpark factors here in Pittsburgh, wins blowing

846
00:43:41,559 --> 00:43:43,880
in a little bit. Home runs should be twenty four

847
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,840
percent less than normal runs about even. Yeah, I kind

848
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:49,079
of like the under in this one.

849
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, guys, do us a huge favorite. Go to the

850
00:43:54,159 --> 00:43:57,400
replay here and leave us a comment, something positive or

851
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:04,639
negative either way. We all check your comment. Yeah, all

852
00:44:04,679 --> 00:44:07,559
three of us check your comments, and we we do

853
00:44:07,599 --> 00:44:09,719
answer them as well. So give us a comment, give

854
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:13,039
us a like. Tell wager Talk that you're enjoying the show,

855
00:44:13,159 --> 00:44:16,079
because in the live chat you're giving us tons of

856
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,800
positive energy, so give us some of that on the

857
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:23,719
replay as well. It helps Wager Talk understand that baseball

858
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,159
is a wonderful sport and that our show is a

859
00:44:26,199 --> 00:44:30,320
wonderful show. So I said this in yesterday's show, I said,

860
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:34,239
cover the logos and bet the Pirates, and I'm gonna

861
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,679
say it again today because honestly, the way these two

862
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,559
teams are playing, if you cover the logos, the Pirates

863
00:44:40,599 --> 00:44:44,559
are leaps and bounds better than the Giants. They're hitting better,

864
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,239
their bullpen's playing better. And if Burrows can, uh, if

865
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,320
Burrows can hold these guys down for a couple of innings,

866
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,159
I think the Pirates are going to win this game.

867
00:44:56,039 --> 00:45:00,880
They might not. I haven't bet it, but Web's numbers

868
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:05,000
against the Pirates are unbelievable though, I mean they're really good,

869
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:09,239
so I would not disagree with Brian's under. Uh. He's

870
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:13,599
got a two six average against in a five thirteen ops,

871
00:45:13,639 --> 00:45:16,760
which is almost two hundred points below the seven two

872
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,079
hundred fifty points below the seven fifty that I call

873
00:45:20,199 --> 00:45:23,760
When I say Mendoza line, I mean above that is

874
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:28,239
good and below that is bad. So anyways, so that's

875
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:32,239
how I use the word. But anyways, uh, I think

876
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:36,280
that this will probably go under, and I also think

877
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,280
that the Pirates have a very good chance of winning this.

878
00:45:38,559 --> 00:45:41,960
The thing about Web, it's so weird, but in my

879
00:45:42,039 --> 00:45:47,400
starting picture rankings, I have Web ranked. I have Web

880
00:45:47,519 --> 00:45:51,239
ranked number eighteen out of two hundred and fifty starting pictures,

881
00:45:51,599 --> 00:45:55,199
but on my current forum rankings, I have him ranked

882
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:58,320
fifteen out of thirty pictures, so he's right in the middle.

883
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:04,639
So which is it, right? He's obviously very talented and

884
00:46:04,679 --> 00:46:08,559
he's a great pitcher, but these Pirates are smashing the

885
00:46:08,559 --> 00:46:11,119
ball right now and weeds on the road. I would

886
00:46:11,119 --> 00:46:13,360
be very careful taking the Giants and thinking it's an

887
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:13,880
easy win.

888
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't disagree with that. I'd love to like.

889
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 1: I wish I had more to share on this one.

890
00:46:23,039 --> 00:46:26,159
I can't fathom how the Pirates have won. The Pirates

891
00:46:26,159 --> 00:46:28,000
have won ten of their last ten of their last

892
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:32,639
thirteen games. They're ten and three mixed Mixed into that

893
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,280
ten and three is a seventeen sixteen loss at Corsefield

894
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,679
where they blew and they were up nine to nothing

895
00:46:38,679 --> 00:46:41,239
in the first inning and lost the game. And they're

896
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,679
doing it with what I don't truly don't believe is

897
00:46:44,679 --> 00:46:48,880
the optimal lineup in their organization, Like Olivia or Pagero

898
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,280
should not be in the starting lineup. Joey Bart at

899
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,039
this point, like I get it, like the guy that

900
00:46:54,159 --> 00:46:56,719
came over from from the Yankees is still young, but

901
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:02,920
it's like just you know, it's like they've got Nick

902
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,159
Solac down at Triple A. Cam Devaney who they traded

903
00:47:06,199 --> 00:47:09,159
Adam Brasier for and he's had a great season at

904
00:47:09,159 --> 00:47:12,199
Triple A still down at Triple A. So it's actually

905
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:17,159
like a total Like it's mind boggling really because the

906
00:47:17,199 --> 00:47:19,400
Pirates in a lot of ways feel like the Twins,

907
00:47:19,679 --> 00:47:23,840
where they they're like doing their the actions of like

908
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,119
the front office are like, hey, we're kind of waving

909
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:30,400
the white flag here, but they're they're winning games. And

910
00:47:30,599 --> 00:47:33,480
you know, TV you talked about Burrows. Yeah, he's not

911
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,280
a terrible option. If he can get you through four

912
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,239
or five innings, the Pirates are going to be in

913
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,159
a very good position to compete here, like they've been

914
00:47:41,199 --> 00:47:43,440
the past couple of weeks. So, you know, going back

915
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,239
to the original question, Yeah, it looks cheap, but man,

916
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:49,760
like the I don't really want the Giants on the

917
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,800
road right now laying a dollar thirty five dollars forty

918
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,159
So I'm not going to like go to the other

919
00:47:55,199 --> 00:47:57,679
side and say, oh, like this is a home run

920
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,920
spot for the Pirates, but like I don't really want

921
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:01,639
to bet against them.

922
00:48:01,679 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 2: What is the uh, what's the run line.

923
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,559
Speaker 1: There is it like cheap or no, what's plus one

924
00:48:06,599 --> 00:48:09,119
and a half out of curiosity because they don't have

925
00:48:09,119 --> 00:48:09,719
it in front of him.

926
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 2: Oh never mind, that's that.

927
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:13,280
Speaker 1: So, you know what, I think the Pirates may have

928
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,280
taken a little money because I think that plus one

929
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,840
and a half was like minus one thirty minus one

930
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:19,760
thirty five before we got in the show. It's up

931
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,639
to minus it's up to minus one forty five. Pirates

932
00:48:22,639 --> 00:48:26,360
are down to plus one twenty. I'm not betting the

933
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,840
Giants here, and I don't love the Pirates, but I'm

934
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:30,920
not I'm not betting the Giants.

935
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:31,559
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead.

936
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,119
Speaker 5: He's looking like a three to two kind of game.

937
00:48:34,559 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're looking at your team and tuttles at three

938
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,320
and a half for both. The Pirates, for some reason,

939
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:45,599
are fixated on young catchers they traded away. There's closer

940
00:48:45,639 --> 00:48:48,159
to the Yankees to bring back another cutcher. They've already

941
00:48:48,199 --> 00:48:51,519
got like three guys that are cutchers that they can't

942
00:48:51,519 --> 00:48:54,880
find a betch for. And they were supposed to be

943
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:59,000
these great catchers and they're not getting anything out of them.

944
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,639
Maybe this is just a bad a bad team toward

945
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,360
developing cutchers because they bring in these guys from the

946
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:07,199
other teams, and oh, this is the guy.

947
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 4: This is the guy.

948
00:49:09,039 --> 00:49:11,679
Speaker 3: The Yankees develop them, and the Pittsburgh is the only

949
00:49:12,199 --> 00:49:15,039
the only team that cannot get success out of these

950
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:16,320
cutchers they trade for.

951
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: That's very interesting stuff. I've I'm sure we pirates fans.

952
00:49:23,559 --> 00:49:26,320
They don't like how that team is run or managed

953
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:30,320
and stuff. So it is some mind boggling stuff going

954
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,039
on there. And you're you're doing it all while you

955
00:49:32,119 --> 00:49:36,599
literally landed one of the best players of the last

956
00:49:37,039 --> 00:49:37,719
two decade.

957
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 2: I mean literally of the last decade.

958
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 1: He's yeah, and uh, it's it's been sort of a

959
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:46,000
mind boggling to watch.

960
00:49:46,079 --> 00:49:47,079
Speaker 2: I want to pull up a comment.

961
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 5: They won his last start for him too, by the way, so.

962
00:49:51,159 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 1: I know, nice of them to do that, huh, like

963
00:49:53,039 --> 00:49:56,920
they get a little I'm gonna I'm gonna pull up

964
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:59,440
This is a great feedback from Aaron, and I just

965
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:01,000
wanted to pull the common up. And I'm also going

966
00:50:01,039 --> 00:50:03,199
to give my parlay legout right now because it's a

967
00:50:03,199 --> 00:50:06,039
game we've already discussed. And I'll let while I'm talking

968
00:50:06,039 --> 00:50:07,960
for a second, think of a game that you want

969
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:09,719
to talk about. If you want to propose a game

970
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:12,000
because they've got about ten minutes in the show left.

971
00:50:12,639 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 2: He's talking about a bit of advice.

972
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:18,519
Speaker 1: I think he's referring to, like, you know, kind of

973
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:22,800
looking ahead, evaluating the entire series and you know, pick

974
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:23,360
your spots.

975
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 2: But they don't explain it.

976
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 1: So I'll just do it in the context of this

977
00:50:28,079 --> 00:50:31,880
Yankees Rangers series. And here's the thing for me, I

978
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,000
know if I don't sort of look down the line

979
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,239
a little bit, I know that like if I lose,

980
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:38,920
like like if I lose with the team, Let's say

981
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,480
I played the White Sox tonight. If I lose with them,

982
00:50:41,559 --> 00:50:43,800
I'm going to be very inclined to come back with

983
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:44,440
them tomorrow.

984
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 2: And what I think is a better spot.

985
00:50:46,519 --> 00:50:49,199
Speaker 1: So I do try to look out ahead and look

986
00:50:49,199 --> 00:50:52,159
at the series and try to figure out what the

987
00:50:52,199 --> 00:50:56,480
optimal spot is because I have to be I know,

988
00:50:56,559 --> 00:50:58,639
if I'm a day early. I know if I'm a

989
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,440
day early and I play it that I'm pretty much

990
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,320
committing to playing it the next day. In most scenarios,

991
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,519
right like now, something goes totally crazy where you know

992
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:12,320
I'll pass on it. But it's like my thought processes, well,

993
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:15,519
if you played it under this set of circumstances, and

994
00:51:15,519 --> 00:51:18,519
now the set of circumstances is better, How are you

995
00:51:18,639 --> 00:51:21,000
not going to make that same play the next day.

996
00:51:21,039 --> 00:51:24,119
So I'm trying to be very cognizant of that. It's

997
00:51:24,159 --> 00:51:26,280
part of the reason that I didn't want to play

998
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:30,760
the Rangers last night. It's because there was a money move.

999
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,159
The price got a little bit worse, and now suddenly

1000
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:34,599
I was like, do.

1001
00:51:34,599 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 2: You really want Corbin here?

1002
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:39,639
Speaker 1: Because I was looking ahead to today. The spot to

1003
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,679
do it, the spot to jump in would probably be

1004
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,400
with the Evaldi if you get the good price. Now,

1005
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:49,480
had yesterday played out differently, and let's say the Yankees

1006
00:51:49,559 --> 00:51:53,280
ended up winning that close game, I'm probably I'm probably

1007
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:56,440
on the range here for a client play because it's

1008
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,559
ten cents cheaper, maybe it's five cents cheaper. Maybe the

1009
00:51:59,639 --> 00:52:01,599
Rangers don't have to use the extra bullpen, and so

1010
00:52:01,679 --> 00:52:04,719
on and so forth. So like that's what I'm talking

1011
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:06,880
about with like, you know, I'll kind of look ahead,

1012
00:52:07,199 --> 00:52:08,960
look at the series. And I'm glad that you thought

1013
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,599
that was helpful, because I just think that you should

1014
00:52:11,599 --> 00:52:14,400
be sort of conscious of what you're getting yourself into

1015
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:17,280
early in a series. You might end up, you know,

1016
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,880
playing all three games. So I appreciate that comment, and

1017
00:52:22,039 --> 00:52:23,840
I just wanted to clarify what I.

1018
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 2: Was talking about there.

1019
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,079
Speaker 1: And the reason I brought that up now is because

1020
00:52:27,079 --> 00:52:29,639
I'm going to put that Rangers play in our parlay.

1021
00:52:29,679 --> 00:52:31,960
So let's go Rangers money line for my parlay league.

1022
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,119
What do we have there, Brian? For a money line.

1023
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:40,159
Speaker 3: There Texas currently, let's go H one twenty three.

1024
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:42,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, like and and that's the price.

1025
00:52:42,599 --> 00:52:45,559
Speaker 1: So they So the Yankees not not in the least

1026
00:52:45,639 --> 00:52:48,079
bit surprised they've taken money. They do all the time,

1027
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,559
but that is kind of what you know, I thought

1028
00:52:51,559 --> 00:52:54,159
the price would have been would have been had the

1029
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,559
Yankees won last night. And I'm not saying I'm ruling

1030
00:52:56,639 --> 00:52:58,960
it out, but you know, from a client play perspective,

1031
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,760
but at the at the very least, it's definitely my

1032
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:03,920
favorite thing of what we've talked about so far. So

1033
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,360
I'm gonna go ahead and make that by parlay leg

1034
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:08,480
because I still think it's a good spot for them

1035
00:53:08,559 --> 00:53:10,519
because the Yankees cannot get out of their own way

1036
00:53:10,599 --> 00:53:12,800
right now, so Rangers.

1037
00:53:12,519 --> 00:53:13,760
Speaker 2: Will be the first leg of the parlay.

1038
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:16,920
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard, do you have a game you want to

1039
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,000
talk about or is it something we've already discussed.

1040
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, we discussed it. I also like the Rangers. I

1041
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,360
think that has some value. I'm going to play that

1042
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,840
Pittsburgh game under seven and a half. We're looking at

1043
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:32,599
minus one fifteen I think is about yeah, minus one fifteen,

1044
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:35,840
seven and a half, under one fifteen in the Pirates game.

1045
00:53:37,519 --> 00:53:42,599
Speaker 5: We're going to win this parlay one from you. But

1046
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:46,280
I think I think we all agree on because I

1047
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:49,360
agree with both of your plays, and I am going

1048
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,239
to do a game that we haven't covered yet. Can

1049
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,599
I just bring it up and start talking to Yeah.

1050
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 1: Just tell us what the game is. We'll start with you,

1051
00:53:55,559 --> 00:53:57,920
we'll go to Brian, and we'll do the whole whole thing.

1052
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:00,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, I'll go first then, and I'll just put

1053
00:54:00,679 --> 00:54:02,559
my game out there. It's going to be the Tigers

1054
00:54:02,599 --> 00:54:04,400
and the Twins. I'm going to go with the Tigers

1055
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:09,679
on the money line. Tigers have have caught a wind

1056
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,800
after getting you know, having a tough series against Philadelphia.

1057
00:54:14,119 --> 00:54:17,000
Nothing like bringing your confidence back then playing a team

1058
00:54:17,039 --> 00:54:20,960
that just traded away forty percent of its roster. So

1059
00:54:21,679 --> 00:54:25,239
Paddock gets a bad rap because he's wildly and consistent

1060
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,519
and not that great. But if you actually look close,

1061
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,800
look closer, his one two four whip is not terrible.

1062
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,239
And actually in his last two starts, he went six

1063
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,280
innings in each start and only gave up one earned

1064
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,039
run in each start, and that was against two power lineups,

1065
00:54:41,039 --> 00:54:44,480
the Diamondbacks, who are fading a little bit, but also

1066
00:54:44,559 --> 00:54:48,400
the Dodgers. Before that, he had a three game stretch

1067
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,800
where he gave up thirteen earned runs. So that's where

1068
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:53,719
he gets his stigma of being a terrible pitcher. But

1069
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:57,400
he's not that bad. My numbers have him and Zebbie

1070
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:01,559
Matthews pretty much head to head. One thing about Zebi

1071
00:55:01,599 --> 00:55:05,840
Matthews is he's got a six plus ERA on the road.

1072
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:10,599
Granted it's only nineteen innings, but if you look at

1073
00:55:10,639 --> 00:55:15,320
how if you look at his game log, he's wildly inconsistent.

1074
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:19,719
But he generally doesn't go past five innings. So what

1075
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,079
we know is he's probably going to have a short

1076
00:55:22,079 --> 00:55:25,280
outing here. He might hold the Tigers to one or

1077
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,119
two earned he might even hold him to zero, but

1078
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,800
we know that he's not going to go six, seven,

1079
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:34,840
eight innings. We know that this Minnesota bullpen is playing

1080
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:40,079
like garbage So I'll take this Tiger's lineup with four

1081
00:55:40,199 --> 00:55:43,920
or five innings against this trash bullpen. And I think

1082
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,960
even if Paddock struggles, which I don't think he will

1083
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,000
today actually, but even if he struggles, I think the

1084
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,719
Tigers can come back in the end. If they can

1085
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:56,159
keep it a one run game after five innings, I

1086
00:55:56,159 --> 00:55:59,199
think the Tigers have all every shot in the world

1087
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:01,719
to win this game. I'll take the Tigers on the

1088
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:02,800
money line here.

1089
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:06,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm seeing them about a one forty one right now,

1090
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:10,000
total of eight and a half. I agree the line's

1091
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,159
a little bit cheap. Money has come in on Minnesota

1092
00:56:12,199 --> 00:56:12,880
for some reason.

1093
00:56:13,639 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 4: Zebbie.

1094
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 3: Matthew is very inconsistent. He is still yet to impress

1095
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:19,280
in the major leagues.

1096
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 4: He's been a very.

1097
00:56:20,159 --> 00:56:24,519
Speaker 3: Good minor league pitcher, but as much as I like him,

1098
00:56:24,639 --> 00:56:27,679
you know, his numbers in the majors are terrible. He's

1099
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:30,039
got a six point two to one ERA one point

1100
00:56:30,159 --> 00:56:32,880
five to four WHIP in two years. He is just

1101
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,119
not put it together at this level. And Paddock is

1102
00:56:36,119 --> 00:56:39,280
going against the team he just played for. Minnesota just

1103
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:43,960
traded him away. I think that Detroit brought in seven

1104
00:56:44,079 --> 00:56:49,000
pitchers during the trade deadline Minnesota trades away. There are seventh, eighth,

1105
00:56:49,119 --> 00:56:52,519
and ninth inning relievers. If Paddock doesn't have a lead

1106
00:56:52,599 --> 00:56:57,239
after five, I really like Detroit in live betting in

1107
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,400
the second half of this game. In Minnesota, Wow, as

1108
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,679
a lead through five innings, I think we're going to

1109
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,559
get a great bet on Detroit because I really trust

1110
00:57:06,559 --> 00:57:10,159
their bullpen and I do not trust this Minnesota bullpen

1111
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:13,960
at all because they've got guys that were pitching long

1112
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:17,480
relief guys from the miners coming up taking over those

1113
00:57:17,559 --> 00:57:21,519
cannings of seven, eight, and nine. And that's to me,

1114
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:25,599
If that happens, Detroit in the second half of this game,

1115
00:57:25,639 --> 00:57:28,679
live betting could be the best bet on the board today.

1116
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1117
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:34,679
Speaker 1: So I did a one of my solo videos, which

1118
00:57:34,719 --> 00:57:37,280
is just we will put free free pick videos up

1119
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:39,280
on the Wager talk to YouTube channel throughout the day,

1120
00:57:39,639 --> 00:57:42,480
and I did Twins Tigers yesterday. I actually shouted you

1121
00:57:42,519 --> 00:57:45,360
out TV because I pointed out that you had about

1122
00:57:45,679 --> 00:57:49,880
forty to fifty cents of CLV from the show compared

1123
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,760
to what that play went off. Big reason for that

1124
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,880
was Simeon Woods Richardson being scratched with the illness and

1125
00:57:56,199 --> 00:57:57,800
moved to Wednesday or.

1126
00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 2: Whenever they're going to have him throw. But I did

1127
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:01,320
my video.

1128
00:58:01,639 --> 00:58:04,119
Speaker 1: I did my video and kind of talked about, Okay,

1129
00:58:04,159 --> 00:58:07,239
this has now moved forty cents. We didn't have a

1130
00:58:07,239 --> 00:58:09,079
lineup yet, we didn't know who the starting pitcher was

1131
00:58:09,079 --> 00:58:09,719
gonna be yet.

1132
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,079
Speaker 2: But I pointed out.

1133
00:58:11,039 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: Reasons to potentially at the new price, like Twins plus

1134
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,360
one and a half, and none of those things ever

1135
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:21,039
came to fruition because it goes back to it's.

1136
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 2: Very similar to the Pirates.

1137
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:25,199
Speaker 1: It's like the Twins are have very much waved the

1138
00:58:25,199 --> 00:58:28,360
white flag because not only have they traded away eleven

1139
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,519
of their guys, half a lot of the guys that

1140
00:58:31,559 --> 00:58:33,599
are are what I consider to be the better players

1141
00:58:33,679 --> 00:58:36,800
or the more exciting players, the more upside players are

1142
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:39,199
all at Triple A. And so I was thinking, oh, okay,

1143
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,840
they're gonna move Woods Richardson, maybe they're gonna you know,

1144
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:44,480
maybe maybe they're gonna put like Pearson ole And as

1145
00:58:44,559 --> 00:58:46,119
a starter or like one of the guys that I'm

1146
00:58:46,119 --> 00:58:49,079
excited about at Triple A. Now they ran Travis Adams

1147
00:58:49,119 --> 00:58:51,679
out there, who was actually not bad, and then the

1148
00:58:51,679 --> 00:58:55,199
bullpen came in and right now the Bullpen's just it's

1149
00:58:55,239 --> 00:58:59,119
a bunch of like B level depth arms because they

1150
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:02,400
Griffin Jack no longer there ya on Duran brock Stewart,

1151
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:06,960
They're all gone, and so it's basically it's a it's

1152
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:10,000
all arms that would cons you would normally consider depth

1153
00:59:10,119 --> 00:59:13,920
arms in the bullpen. The Twins are going to listen,

1154
00:59:14,159 --> 00:59:16,840
they're gonna go out the twenty six or whoever.

1155
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: However many guys are in that dugout are trying to.

1156
00:59:19,239 --> 00:59:23,159
Speaker 1: Win games, but for whatever reason, management is not for

1157
00:59:23,199 --> 00:59:25,840
that team. If they were, they'd have Mick Abel in

1158
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,920
the starting rotation. They'd have Luke keshel back up playing short.

1159
00:59:29,119 --> 00:59:32,280
They'd probably have Miranda up. They probably have Peyton ELL's

1160
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,800
up like. They would even maybe roll the dice and

1161
00:59:34,840 --> 00:59:36,800
bring a couple of those guys from Double A that

1162
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:38,480
had been knocking the cover off the ball and just

1163
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,400
got to Triple A and had a great week. They

1164
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:42,440
would put them on the big league roster. But for

1165
00:59:42,519 --> 00:59:46,480
whatever reason, they're content would just ride in it out.

1166
00:59:46,519 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 2: And I think it's going to mean a lot of

1167
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:48,920
losses for this team.

1168
00:59:49,039 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 1: So TV, I can't argue with you here, that's a

1169
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:52,679
cheap price for the Twins.

1170
00:59:52,719 --> 00:59:53,199
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bryan.

1171
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,199
Speaker 5: We all agree, Yeah, Varlin.

1172
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 4: They also pread it away, so even a really good year.

1173
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:01,559
Speaker 3: The reason the Twins doing this is because they're looking

1174
01:00:01,599 --> 01:00:06,320
to sell and they're looking to dump salary.

1175
01:00:06,159 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 4: They still have Ryan.

1176
01:00:08,239 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 3: He was supposed to be a Red Sox all the

1177
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:13,519
way through, and then Minnesota got so busy trading everybody

1178
01:00:13,519 --> 01:00:15,199
else the way they ran out of time, or he'd

1179
01:00:15,239 --> 01:00:15,840
have been gone.

1180
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:17,119
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1181
01:00:17,119 --> 01:00:20,400
Speaker 3: The Minnesota team right now is if you're a player,

1182
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,079
veteran player on that team, you're wondering what the hell

1183
01:00:23,239 --> 01:00:25,559
is going on right now. But that's the reason they're

1184
01:00:25,559 --> 01:00:27,280
doing it. They're trying to sell, which is good for

1185
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:30,239
Minnesota because their owner has been one of the cheapest

1186
01:00:30,239 --> 01:00:32,960
owners of Major League Baseball. I hope they do. I've

1187
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:36,280
always liked the Twins because they i'll perform their metrics

1188
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,000
and they had a lot of success. I hope they

1189
01:00:39,039 --> 01:00:40,679
get an owner there. They'll spend some money.

1190
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:47,599
Speaker 5: Very quick point before Adam summarizes the parlay, don't forget

1191
01:00:47,599 --> 01:00:50,480
that these guys are human beings. And if I don't

1192
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:53,440
know the historical statistics, but if you look at pitchers

1193
01:00:53,719 --> 01:00:56,519
who got cut or traded from a team, and the

1194
01:00:56,559 --> 01:00:59,559
first game they face that team, I guarantee you they

1195
01:00:59,599 --> 01:01:02,800
have a really good stats because these guys, these guys

1196
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:06,039
are human and they don't like they don't like being disrespected,

1197
01:01:06,199 --> 01:01:08,679
and anytime they have a chance to stick it to someone,

1198
01:01:08,719 --> 01:01:12,440
they're gonna do it. And so I know Paddick's not

1199
01:01:13,079 --> 01:01:16,480
Tom Seaver, okay, but he's gonna bring his A game today.

1200
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,760
His A game is is a normal Pictures B minus

1201
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:24,639
game maybe, but still he's gonna have as he's gonna bring.

1202
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:26,800
He's gonna bring his stuff today.

1203
01:01:29,039 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and even if it, even if he doesn't, it

1204
01:01:31,519 --> 01:01:35,079
might not matter because like that, that's just where we're

1205
01:01:35,119 --> 01:01:37,280
at with these two teams. And that I still think

1206
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,039
the Tigers, it might be making up for a little

1207
01:01:39,039 --> 01:01:39,480
lost time.

1208
01:01:39,519 --> 01:01:41,199
Speaker 2: They had a really bad week out of the break.

1209
01:01:41,239 --> 01:01:44,159
Speaker 1: So I think you're starting to get a focused Tigers

1210
01:01:44,159 --> 01:01:46,920
team that is like, hey, we got to make up

1211
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:49,599
for that stretch losing like ten of eleven or whatever

1212
01:01:49,639 --> 01:01:50,000
we did.

1213
01:01:50,079 --> 01:01:52,639
Speaker 2: So the parlay is locked in. We've reached the end

1214
01:01:52,679 --> 01:01:53,159
of the show.

1215
01:01:54,199 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 1: Still even with the loss yesterday, still six up six

1216
01:01:56,880 --> 01:01:59,559
point four units on these If you've been playing along

1217
01:01:59,599 --> 01:02:02,559
the whole season, that's a dollar for every dollar. It's

1218
01:02:02,599 --> 01:02:05,599
returned six dollars and forty cents and we're still trying

1219
01:02:05,639 --> 01:02:07,159
to run that up, but we're happy to keep our

1220
01:02:07,199 --> 01:02:09,119
heads afloat here. We do need to hit one, so

1221
01:02:09,159 --> 01:02:12,599
hopefully it's today. We have three full game bets. We

1222
01:02:12,639 --> 01:02:16,480
have Rangers money Line, Tiger's money Line, and then Pirates

1223
01:02:16,559 --> 01:02:19,199
Giants Under seven and a half. And I did one

1224
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,800
of the viewers said, can you can you say whose

1225
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:22,239
pick is?

1226
01:02:22,239 --> 01:02:23,719
Speaker 2: What? So let me read that again.

1227
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:27,719
Speaker 1: It is I'm on Rangers, So Rangers is my pick

1228
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:32,119
on the money line. Brian Leonard has Tiger. I'm sorry, Tokyo.

1229
01:02:32,119 --> 01:02:36,079
Brandon has Tiger's money Line. Brian Leonard Pirates Giants Under

1230
01:02:36,119 --> 01:02:39,199
seven and a half plus four eighty one odds, so

1231
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,800
plus four eighty one on today's parlay. Hopefully it's a winner.

1232
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:46,199
Don't forget it is five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk.

1233
01:02:46,199 --> 01:02:47,920
We will all have a play up at some point

1234
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:50,960
today for five bucks. Great special. You can get all

1235
01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:53,840
three of our plays for less than the cost of

1236
01:02:54,639 --> 01:02:58,800
one full priced one if you so. If you choose

1237
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:01,360
to do that, I you know I made my maybe

1238
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:03,920
kbo I haven't decided yet because I'm running better there

1239
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:05,920
than in Major League Baseball right now, but we'll have

1240
01:03:06,039 --> 01:03:10,039
that up at some point today. TV killed it yesterday

1241
01:03:10,079 --> 01:03:12,760
with his big plays, so grab his five percenter and

1242
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:15,440
Brian's got one as well. Uh, you see you guys

1243
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:20,199
in the morning, fidout. Sorry we didn't discuss today, so

1244
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:25,400
all right, we'll give you something fresh, cool, awesome yep,

1245
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,280
five dollars Tuesday at wager Talk. We'll see you guys

1246
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:30,519
in the morning for more total basis tomorrow nine am.

1247
01:03:30,679 --> 01:03:33,119
Appreciate you for tuning in as always, and have a

1248
01:03:33,119 --> 01:03:33,559
great day.