WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.840 --> 00:00:03.279 I want me some glory over. 2 00:00:05.120 --> 00:00:30.079 Mm hmmmmmmmmm. 3 00:00:22.120 --> 00:00:24.600 H m. 4 00:00:27.280 --> 00:00:27.399 Hm. 5 00:00:32.560 --> 00:00:37.759 Oh yeah, Hello, Welcome to the FGH podcast. 6 00:00:38.280 --> 00:00:42.679 Listen on app podcast sound about Speakers YouTube, watch us 7 00:00:42.960 --> 00:00:49.200 lot on YouTube, Live on Instagram, live upon, TikTok live 8 00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:50.719 reporting anyway you can afford it. 9 00:00:50.759 --> 00:00:54.399 Maybe you think each other glory. Oh se you're tuning 10 00:00:54.399 --> 00:00:59.159 in this week housball Cities. I'm join here, Adam oh By, 11 00:00:59.280 --> 00:01:00.640 my good buddy Ones. 12 00:01:01.880 --> 00:01:07.040 What the fuck all rid oh Ride, we're both seeface. 13 00:01:07.120 --> 00:01:07.680 Here we go. 14 00:01:08.120 --> 00:01:14.200 NFL week number six and this week, buddy, I celebrated 15 00:01:14.400 --> 00:01:21.120 a birthday and as I approached fifty, I'm approaching it. 16 00:01:21.239 --> 00:01:23.200 I see I see it on the horizon. It's not 17 00:01:23.319 --> 00:01:27.719 there yet. I'm wondering if I should stop the the 18 00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:31.439 throwing of the beer. The ship fits after horrible losses 19 00:01:31.560 --> 00:01:35.400 like I had in Arizona Tennessee game last week. My houses, 20 00:01:35.959 --> 00:01:38.280 my houses are getting much nicer than when I started 21 00:01:38.319 --> 00:01:41.079 the beer toss in this shitty apartment many many years ago. 22 00:01:41.400 --> 00:01:44.560 And on top of that, the may doesn't come until Fridays, 23 00:01:44.640 --> 00:01:47.560 so the beer mess just sits there for five days 24 00:01:47.640 --> 00:01:49.799 until she you know, comes around and starts cleaning up 25 00:01:50.120 --> 00:01:54.560 and My story is about how the beer happened in 26 00:01:54.719 --> 00:01:57.079 the corner and all that mess. She it's just not 27 00:01:57.359 --> 00:01:59.560 landing very well with her anymore. 28 00:01:59.799 --> 00:01:59.840 So. 29 00:02:00.040 --> 00:02:02.760 The moral of the story is, when you get older, 30 00:02:03.159 --> 00:02:07.280 stop throwing beer cans across the room after a bad beat. 31 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:10.919 And number two, although it's getting much harder, make sure 32 00:02:11.000 --> 00:02:13.520 you hire a maid who does not speak English so 33 00:02:13.639 --> 00:02:18.719 she can't question the mystery of the flying fucking beer cans. Now, 34 00:02:19.159 --> 00:02:22.560 whether you are here for the funny, it's a question 35 00:02:22.560 --> 00:02:22.919 for fun. 36 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:25.199 I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun. 37 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:27.520 We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the 38 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:31.039 plastic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling 39 00:02:31.080 --> 00:02:33.960 symphony do to out of your assholes. You are here 40 00:02:34.120 --> 00:02:36.120 for the money. Anybody tells your money's the root of 41 00:02:36.120 --> 00:02:36.560 all evil. 42 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:39.719 Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness. 43 00:02:39.759 --> 00:02:42.960 Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to hear, baby, 44 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:45.879 you have come to the right place. Two questions for 45 00:02:45.960 --> 00:02:49.319 you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question? 46 00:02:49.479 --> 00:02:49.719 That is? 47 00:02:50.520 --> 00:02:54.000 What a stupid question? You ask a lot of stupid questions. 48 00:02:55.680 --> 00:02:59.560 My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you 49 00:03:00.199 --> 00:03:00.840 like money. 50 00:03:00.919 --> 00:03:03.800 I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I 51 00:03:04.000 --> 00:03:04.240 use it. 52 00:03:04.759 --> 00:03:06.800 I have a little I keep it in a jar 53 00:03:06.879 --> 00:03:09.159 on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more 54 00:03:09.199 --> 00:03:11.360 in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right, 55 00:03:11.400 --> 00:03:14.680 Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. Visit our 56 00:03:14.759 --> 00:03:18.199 Patreon page and check out all the winning opportunities. That's 57 00:03:18.319 --> 00:03:23.319 patreon dot com. Slash bet Underscore FGH. Become our football 58 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:25.639 partners for life so that you can bet football the 59 00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:34.360 right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And 60 00:03:34.719 --> 00:03:37.759 as always here on the sports patio, we got the 61 00:03:38.000 --> 00:03:42.039 TV's glowing, we got to bear heavily flowing tonight and 62 00:03:42.199 --> 00:03:45.879 right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of 63 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:52.599 the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting, 64 00:03:53.080 --> 00:03:56.800 how choice of the week. 65 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:02.039 I still drug. 66 00:04:02.159 --> 00:04:03.199 I feel right do it. 67 00:04:04.879 --> 00:04:07.479 Well? Thank you everyone, sir, sir, it's not I'm drinking 68 00:04:07.560 --> 00:04:14.560 a soaking the dishes by Allston Beer Brewing Company in Alexandria, Virginia. 69 00:04:15.680 --> 00:04:20.040 These names of these beers, I swear to good they're 70 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:22.560 just throwing shit. They're throwing beers across the room and 71 00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:25.360 wherever the name, wherever the name lands, they'll us throw 72 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:26.560 at it. There's a throat on there. 73 00:04:27.839 --> 00:04:30.959 Well, it is very apropos that I'm drinking this beer tonight, Longhorner, 74 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:34.480 because did you know that on this day in nineteen hundred, 75 00:04:34.600 --> 00:04:37.360 Helen Hayes was one, and she was, of course the 76 00:04:37.639 --> 00:04:42.279 quote first lady of American theater unquote. She won two 77 00:04:42.519 --> 00:04:45.639 Oscars thirty nine years apart. But of course she was 78 00:04:45.839 --> 00:04:54.600 best known for her sorry, she was best known for 79 00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:58.839 work on Broadway, where she would do the laundry and 80 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:02.279 dishes of the mill actors who actually everybody paid to see. 81 00:05:02.879 --> 00:05:08.680 And of course, although she did get her screen time, 82 00:05:08.720 --> 00:05:11.879 she was still just a woman, and the male characters 83 00:05:12.279 --> 00:05:17.199 had to remind her that of this, I'm. 84 00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:19.759 A man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel 85 00:05:19.879 --> 00:05:22.879 Tower out of metal and brawn. That's what kind of 86 00:05:22.959 --> 00:05:25.879 man I am. You're just a woman with a small brain, 87 00:05:26.879 --> 00:05:31.600 with a brain a third the size of us. It's science, it. 88 00:05:31.720 --> 00:05:34.800 Is nine, longhorned. And although she was the first American 89 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:39.000 woman of whatever America theater, nobody fucking knows her. Nobody 90 00:05:39.040 --> 00:05:42.319 even outside of this podcast, will ever remember that she existed. 91 00:05:42.439 --> 00:05:44.199 So you know it is what it is. 92 00:05:44.519 --> 00:05:47.079 Cheers to all the men and all the women doing 93 00:05:47.120 --> 00:05:48.879 all over along, thank you very much. 94 00:05:49.279 --> 00:05:53.959 As soon as you said first American woman, I zoned out. 95 00:05:54.240 --> 00:05:57.519 I kind of I kind of went blurry ahead, and 96 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:00.720 I just was like, when is he gonna start talking 97 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:04.040 about football? And then I think we're almost there, so 98 00:06:04.439 --> 00:06:05.160 so cheerous to that. 99 00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:16.360 Please and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages. 100 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:28.839 Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what do you 101 00:06:29.000 --> 00:06:30.079 think is happening right now? 102 00:06:31.439 --> 00:06:34.680 Xcuse me? What is happening here? What is happening? What 103 00:06:34.879 --> 00:06:36.600 the fuck just happened? Oh? 104 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:38.120 You know what's happening. 105 00:06:38.360 --> 00:06:41.000 It's time for all those wins coming to the ads 106 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:49.360 a knifeber all right, boys and girls, it is time 107 00:06:49.560 --> 00:06:52.160 for all those what's coming there to night. However, before 108 00:06:52.199 --> 00:06:54.399 we get there, I do have to remind you that 109 00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:56.720 we will get you paid on our free pixes. We 110 00:06:56.800 --> 00:06:59.319 always do and to get us paid, Oh, it's our 111 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:04.319 sponsored excess telehealth dot com. Look, winter time is coming. 112 00:07:04.399 --> 00:07:06.639 I know it's still one thousand degrees in the state 113 00:07:06.680 --> 00:07:10.639 of Texas right now. That's fine. Eventually it will get 114 00:07:10.720 --> 00:07:12.959 cold and you will get a cold and when you 115 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:17.319 do call my boy, text tellhealth dot com doctor West. 116 00:07:17.399 --> 00:07:21.839 He'll get you on a appointment at thirty minutes or less. 117 00:07:21.920 --> 00:07:23.600 He'll have you fucking have a script and a no 118 00:07:23.800 --> 00:07:26.199 time and you never have to leave your house or 119 00:07:26.319 --> 00:07:30.480 work again. I use doctor West, Longhorn. Does my parents do, 120 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:33.439 and you should too, because text telehealth dot com. 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That is texts to E l E health 130 00:08:02.199 --> 00:08:07.000 dot com for all your medical needs, all right, Longhorn. 131 00:08:07.040 --> 00:08:10.000 Tell you about some uh maybe some teams that might 132 00:08:10.079 --> 00:08:16.839 have some fucking uh medical needs. We're going We're gonna 133 00:08:16.839 --> 00:08:20.720 start over in London with those jets and those ten 134 00:08:21.079 --> 00:08:27.519 verb broncos are in London, and that line is sitting 135 00:08:27.600 --> 00:08:31.279 at Denver minus seven and a half and that's pretty solid, Longhorn. 136 00:08:31.439 --> 00:08:32.799 So what are you going on this one? 137 00:08:33.879 --> 00:08:36.559 Yeah, well, the Jets. It's well, it's well documented how 138 00:08:36.639 --> 00:08:38.840 much I hate the head coach. 139 00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:40.879 I hate he s looves to put the sounder on 140 00:08:41.039 --> 00:08:43.440 the Jets. You know, he loves he loves to do, 141 00:08:44.039 --> 00:08:44.759 he loves to do. 142 00:08:45.480 --> 00:08:47.960 Yeah, that's that's a good that's a good disclaimer on 143 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:50.799 being able to say that this week there's is gonna 144 00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:53.480 be a lot of favorites that I like, which is unusual. 145 00:08:53.519 --> 00:08:55.759 It's not how I usually like to lean and and 146 00:08:55.960 --> 00:08:59.240 find find you know, uh picks. But it is what 147 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:01.399 it is, and it's not even a heavy teaser week. 148 00:09:01.480 --> 00:09:03.399 So it's just a it's just a weird week for 149 00:09:03.519 --> 00:09:04.799 me where I'm not going to have a whole lot 150 00:09:04.840 --> 00:09:07.480 of action, to be quite honest with you, and serting 151 00:09:07.759 --> 00:09:09.279 not a lot of action with the sounders and the 152 00:09:09.799 --> 00:09:11.799 danger zones and the big dig pick. So it's gonna 153 00:09:11.799 --> 00:09:15.080 be a little weak on that. But Jets are in 154 00:09:15.200 --> 00:09:19.240 the do not bet, do not touch, do not pass 155 00:09:19.320 --> 00:09:22.240 go with Tennessee for me, and I know Tennessee got 156 00:09:22.279 --> 00:09:27.399 the we well documented Arizona cover loss bullshit last week. 157 00:09:27.519 --> 00:09:31.120 That's I'm going against Tennessee literally the next ten weeks. 158 00:09:31.120 --> 00:09:33.480 I don't care. Like they're a horrible team. And then 159 00:09:33.559 --> 00:09:35.480 Jets are the same thing to me, the fact that 160 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:38.559 this is overseas, so you got you got a new 161 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:49.399 coach Sunday somewhere overseas, over there Australia, New England, England, 162 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:52.360 who knows they're over there somewhere, new head coach, who 163 00:09:52.399 --> 00:09:53.879 doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't know what he's 164 00:09:53.919 --> 00:09:56.480 doing on American soil, So I don't know that he 165 00:09:56.559 --> 00:10:00.919 can handle this kind of He can't handle this kind 166 00:10:00.919 --> 00:10:03.440 of travel and preparation takes. And Sean Paynton's been in 167 00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:05.039 the league for a very long time. So this is 168 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:10.200 just a massive, massive head coaching mismatch, and in on 169 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:13.519 the field, it's just a massive mismatch from what we've 170 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:15.000 seen so far. As you're now, I do think the 171 00:10:15.159 --> 00:10:18.399 Jets are better on paper than what they've shown, but 172 00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:20.360 they're on five because they have no head coach. And 173 00:10:20.720 --> 00:10:22.279 this is what happens when you do a d IHR 174 00:10:23.120 --> 00:10:26.360 dee I in the NFL. Is might as well be 175 00:10:26.480 --> 00:10:29.200 d I E. You are, You're dead, You're you're gonna die. 176 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:31.480 You got nothing, so it's not gonna work. 177 00:10:32.200 --> 00:10:37.200 Yeah, they would take you know, pensidents. 178 00:10:38.039 --> 00:10:40.279 Well, that wasn't. That's a great hire they've had. They've 179 00:10:40.320 --> 00:10:43.120 had three head coaches in seventy years or whatever it is, 180 00:10:43.200 --> 00:10:45.440 So they clearly know what they're doing. That's that's the 181 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:49.159 that that that ain't d I that's that's like they 182 00:10:49.320 --> 00:10:51.080 know what they're doing and they made a good pick. 183 00:10:51.639 --> 00:10:54.840 But this was a bad one. But now I said, 184 00:10:54.840 --> 00:10:57.879 there's not a lot of teasers. You don't ever tease 185 00:10:58.840 --> 00:11:01.759 a favorite on the road down. It's not. It doesn't. 186 00:11:01.799 --> 00:11:03.919 That's not the wrong strategy, it's not. That's not what 187 00:11:04.039 --> 00:11:07.879 you do. But this isn't a technical road. This is 188 00:11:07.960 --> 00:11:10.720 a neutral site. So if you want to play with Denver, 189 00:11:11.240 --> 00:11:14.360 teas down and pair them up with with maybe Detroit 190 00:11:15.159 --> 00:11:17.080 or there's not a whole lot of candidates this week, 191 00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:19.679 so that's a possibility that you could play with, so 192 00:11:19.799 --> 00:11:22.600 be it. Yeah, I'm on Denver every which way. I'm 193 00:11:22.679 --> 00:11:26.720 fading the Jets all year long until proven differently, same 194 00:11:26.759 --> 00:11:27.720 as Tennessee. 195 00:11:28.639 --> 00:11:31.519 Except that you just bet on the Jets. 196 00:11:31.600 --> 00:11:33.799 Plus, yeah, that was that was their last straw. That 197 00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:37.000 was my last straw. Well, I mean, how long did 198 00:11:37.080 --> 00:11:39.279 it take first to get off the Tennessee thing, Like, 199 00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:41.720 I mean took that or at least me, it took 200 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:46.120 a long time. So it's everybody's got a breaking point 201 00:11:46.200 --> 00:11:46.720 on teams. 202 00:11:46.799 --> 00:11:49.639 And I never got on Tennessee until I got on them, 203 00:11:49.799 --> 00:11:53.960 and then I immediately lost off of them. However, I 204 00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:57.440 just have to say, so, okay, so let's look at 205 00:11:59.399 --> 00:12:01.960 I'm not totally disagree with the year. So I'm just 206 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:04.240 playing a little bit of devils having good. So in 207 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:08.279 this game, I had Denver minus six, Vegs had minus 208 00:12:08.279 --> 00:12:12.159 six and a half. It's sitting at minus seven. Now 209 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:15.200 it's taking money on the Jets side. Now the money 210 00:12:15.279 --> 00:12:22.840 is starting to trickle back in on looks like Denver. However, 211 00:12:25.519 --> 00:12:30.360 you're talking about a Bownecks led team that is not 212 00:12:30.519 --> 00:12:35.159 really good scoring the ball, laying seven to seven and 213 00:12:35.200 --> 00:12:37.000 a half dep anywhere you want to get this. It's 214 00:12:37.000 --> 00:12:43.639 still seven halfs available. I don't know so power rankings wise, 215 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:47.480 it's now called buckets. Great, it's the Jets Denver who 216 00:12:47.519 --> 00:12:51.600 gets the V two, Just get the D two. The 217 00:12:51.720 --> 00:12:54.080 over runner sitting forty three and a half. I've got 218 00:12:54.159 --> 00:12:57.639 this Broncos winning twenty four to twenty one, which slightly over. 219 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:02.159 Now I have it in a special team's grade on this, 220 00:13:02.360 --> 00:13:04.559 I'm not gonna go over them just because I want 221 00:13:04.559 --> 00:13:06.679 to see how they kind of work out. I did 222 00:13:07.759 --> 00:13:10.559 retro grade last week with this new special teams that 223 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:14.320 algorithm I'll come up with. And last week, just for 224 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:19.480 full transparency, the totals in the BBG with four and four. However, 225 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:22.480 if you added a special teams trading and they went 226 00:13:22.720 --> 00:13:27.879 five and three, but that's retroacting, so I can't say 227 00:13:27.960 --> 00:13:31.679 that's accurate. We'll track it going forward and we'll kind 228 00:13:31.720 --> 00:13:34.039 of see what this looks like. But even with the 229 00:13:34.120 --> 00:13:37.600 special teams in, it's twenty five to twenty two, so 230 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:41.200 it's still the over. So I do leand to the over. 231 00:13:41.799 --> 00:13:45.679 Now the home team technically is the Jets. It's not 232 00:13:45.799 --> 00:13:48.080 the best matchup Frials he loses a half a point. 233 00:13:48.200 --> 00:13:51.039 It's decent matchup for bo Naci gains a half a point. 234 00:13:52.240 --> 00:13:57.519 Both running games should be around normal. However, this one 235 00:13:57.600 --> 00:14:00.279 trend I did pull. If you're on five and it's 236 00:14:00.320 --> 00:14:04.639 week six, since twenty twelve, we've had seventeen games of 237 00:14:04.720 --> 00:14:10.639 that long horn seven and ten straight up so losing record. However, 238 00:14:11.000 --> 00:14:16.960 ats ten and seven, two point four points ats margin 239 00:14:17.120 --> 00:14:19.440 on that, and that's been the line of six and 240 00:14:19.480 --> 00:14:24.039 a half. It's about where we're at. So not in 241 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:26.799 an eightst the over which the numbers du suesses go over. 242 00:14:27.519 --> 00:14:30.320 I like the Jets. I like the over. That's the 243 00:14:30.360 --> 00:14:33.159 way I would play this one. I don't believe Bonis 244 00:14:33.200 --> 00:14:35.639 can beat I don't believe Bonnis can beat fucking Air 245 00:14:35.960 --> 00:14:40.720 by fucking seven points. He sucks. And that's the way 246 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:43.559 I would go with that. And again you're I mean, 247 00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:45.559 you're looking at the h to five team going to 248 00:14:45.799 --> 00:14:49.639 to six that there had at some point there has 249 00:14:49.759 --> 00:14:53.399 to be some fight with this team. If not now, 250 00:14:53.519 --> 00:14:59.399 then win If I mean again, where if you look 251 00:14:59.440 --> 00:15:04.559 at the games Broncos one, they smother people defensively, they 252 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:08.799 get lucky offensively. Maybe they can do that here because 253 00:15:08.799 --> 00:15:11.960 the Jets offensive obviously isn't great and it doesn't great 254 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:16.399 out great again against this team, But are they really 255 00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:21.399 gonna go win by eight points Overseas? Spelled Dixon's first 256 00:15:21.759 --> 00:15:24.639 turn Overseas too. He's not a mature person at all. 257 00:15:24.960 --> 00:15:28.840 That's well documented. I don't know it. It's not I 258 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:30.519 don't have a great feeling for it. But yeah, I'll 259 00:15:30.559 --> 00:15:31.960 take the Jets and the fucking over. 260 00:15:33.120 --> 00:15:36.679 Yeah, there's a lot there. Let's just I'll let the 261 00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:38.679 comments section take care of a lot of that for me. 262 00:15:38.759 --> 00:15:39.919 They'll they'll, they'll get on that. 263 00:15:43.759 --> 00:15:48.159 Let's move on to those Indians, those Indiana Jones's hosting 264 00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:51.840 those fighting midgets. They're on the road. I'm told you 265 00:15:52.200 --> 00:15:54.759 that's where the midgets come to fight. It's on the 266 00:15:55.559 --> 00:15:59.519 road performers. Maybe that's what they do, it's what they do. 267 00:16:00.159 --> 00:16:04.480 Let's see where this game is at right now. Preseason, 268 00:16:06.360 --> 00:16:09.000 this game was at Arizona minus one and a half. 269 00:16:09.960 --> 00:16:12.240 Let's see where I had it. I had it one 270 00:16:12.279 --> 00:16:15.559 and half, Vegas at one half, so we're lock step. 271 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:21.240 We were lockstep. Obviously we were way fucking wrong because 272 00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:26.679 this game, let's see where it's at currently, it's at 273 00:16:26.919 --> 00:16:31.000 seven and a half. So me and Banks, me and Veanks, 274 00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:37.840 we're literally six points off on this game. Does that 275 00:16:38.039 --> 00:16:41.159 seem possible? I don't know. I mean, I've been wrong 276 00:16:41.320 --> 00:16:42.720 many times in my life. I've been that. 277 00:16:43.559 --> 00:16:44.799 It's definitely the way it's going. 278 00:16:45.399 --> 00:16:47.919 Very very rarely have I been that wrong, though the 279 00:16:48.039 --> 00:16:48.679 long more, where do you go. 280 00:16:48.720 --> 00:16:51.919 On this well, this one actually is one that falls 281 00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:55.600 into the to the teaser category. Indy at home catching 282 00:16:55.639 --> 00:16:57.639 the seven, seven and a half, You can tease them down, 283 00:16:58.279 --> 00:17:01.399 I certainly have. But on this one, Kyler is just Yes, 284 00:17:01.559 --> 00:17:04.200 this is normally a great Kyler. This is the this 285 00:17:04.359 --> 00:17:07.559 is the spot you want Kyler in dog This is 286 00:17:07.640 --> 00:17:11.119 this sweet spot for sure. But Kyler's a little bitch. 287 00:17:11.519 --> 00:17:15.559 And Kyler might not play this. He might not play 288 00:17:15.640 --> 00:17:18.319 this week. He's gonna bitch out. He's he's You don't 289 00:17:18.359 --> 00:17:21.119 like the heat that he's getting from a ball hitting 290 00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:24.359 him in the face mask and now he's concussed. He's 291 00:17:24.359 --> 00:17:27.039 got a little ankle row issue. He didn't dive on 292 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:28.960 the ball when he when he hit him on the 293 00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:31.240 face mask, he just did the Cam Newton stared at it. 294 00:17:31.279 --> 00:17:34.440 Didn't even didn't even try. He's just of he is 295 00:17:34.559 --> 00:17:37.720 the He's just a bitch. He's not he you give 296 00:17:37.759 --> 00:17:40.960 bow Nick someer ship with like Tyler. Kyler has all 297 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:44.039 the talent. He's just a bitch, So you go ahead. 298 00:17:44.119 --> 00:17:45.680 I don't I don't give a lot of love to 299 00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:48.799 Lebron James NFL. 300 00:17:50.440 --> 00:17:52.119 Except diminutive, y'all. 301 00:17:53.880 --> 00:17:57.960 Now, Lebron James is like the greatest athlete we've ever seen, 302 00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:01.880 and he's fucking won two championships. Whatever, it's kind it's 303 00:18:01.960 --> 00:18:02.559 kind of the same. 304 00:18:02.680 --> 00:18:05.559 It's kind of the same now as far as the 305 00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:08.640 and another reason, like any is and I'm all over 306 00:18:08.720 --> 00:18:10.440 into here every which way. I don't know, I don't 307 00:18:10.440 --> 00:18:15.440 even mind laying in the points because yeah, because like 308 00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:19.759 if we get Kyler, then we're getting him not one 309 00:18:19.839 --> 00:18:21.920 hundred percent. And we know when he's not one hundred percent, 310 00:18:21.960 --> 00:18:28.039 he doesn't run the ball. He doesn't he doesn't run 311 00:18:28.079 --> 00:18:29.640 the ball when he's not one hundred percent, So like 312 00:18:29.720 --> 00:18:31.920 you're not getting the best of Kler Murray. And like, 313 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:33.799 and so if he's gonna be out there and he 314 00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:35.960 does actually fight through and play this game, you're not 315 00:18:36.079 --> 00:18:38.119 getting the real Klin Murray. Which that that knocks the 316 00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:40.519 value off the seven and seven half that you would 317 00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:44.000 normally be a sweet spot for color. But if he 318 00:18:44.079 --> 00:18:47.079 doesn't play well, then obviously you're gonna have Jacoby Pressett 319 00:18:47.319 --> 00:18:50.279 and I don't you know, I don't really like that. 320 00:18:50.400 --> 00:18:53.559 And then and then the final thing is the is 321 00:18:53.599 --> 00:18:58.599 the divided locker room. Okay, we've got obviously we all 322 00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:01.319 saw the thing with the code coach and the running 323 00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:05.160 back thumbing the ball. People are on both sides of this. 324 00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:07.440 People are like, oh, the coach out in the same thing. 325 00:19:07.480 --> 00:19:08.960 I'd have been pissed off. I'm tired of these players 326 00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:11.240 doing that. And then other people are gonna be like, hey, 327 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:13.759 you shouldn't. You can't. You can never put your hands 328 00:19:13.799 --> 00:19:15.759 on a player, which is complete bullshit. So but just 329 00:19:16.000 --> 00:19:19.319 just saying that, I guarantee that some players that are like, oh, you, 330 00:19:19.480 --> 00:19:21.200 coach has a little out of bounds. You shouldn't doing that. 331 00:19:21.240 --> 00:19:23.599 And it's probably some players like yay, maybe don't fucking 332 00:19:23.720 --> 00:19:25.319 fumble the ball in one yard line and costs a 333 00:19:25.480 --> 00:19:28.039 goddamn win in the NFL. So you've got to divide 334 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:30.279 a locker room that's not going to fix itself immediately 335 00:19:30.319 --> 00:19:32.880 in one week. So yeah, everything points to Indy. I like, 336 00:19:34.039 --> 00:19:37.079 I want no part of Arizona and that cancer that 337 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:39.240 they got going on with them right now. It may 338 00:19:39.400 --> 00:19:42.119 fix at a certain point this season if they can 339 00:19:42.160 --> 00:19:45.039 pull it out, but no, this week. Give me all Indy, 340 00:19:45.279 --> 00:19:48.359 any any way you can get them all right, So. 341 00:19:51.039 --> 00:19:54.559 On the power raise, no goal buckets, no goal V 342 00:19:54.680 --> 00:19:57.680 two D two Arizona now I do have this gaded 343 00:19:57.720 --> 00:20:00.400 out twenty four twenty Indy. This is with Colin playing. 344 00:20:00.599 --> 00:20:04.279 Obviously it's not a great matchup though for Indiana. Jones 345 00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:07.799 versus Defense actually would be a half a point better 346 00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:12.640 for Kylin Murray if he does play. But it's a 347 00:20:12.680 --> 00:20:16.480 flat matchup for Indy's running game. It's minus half a 348 00:20:16.519 --> 00:20:19.519 point three Arizona's running game. And that's what's going to 349 00:20:19.599 --> 00:20:22.440 great out India as the winner here, not cover seven 350 00:20:22.440 --> 00:20:24.920 and a half. But if Colin doesn't play, who knows, 351 00:20:25.240 --> 00:20:28.880 you know, Joe Brissett, maybe they're better, maybe they're worse. 352 00:20:29.000 --> 00:20:31.400 I don't fucking know. I mean, like you said, they don't. 353 00:20:31.839 --> 00:20:34.400 We didn't. We just talked about this. They don't even 354 00:20:34.920 --> 00:20:41.400 use Coller's legs anymore what he does but play calling Loise. 355 00:20:41.440 --> 00:20:44.359 They don't like the design runs are way fucking down 356 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:47.240 to what they what they were when he was a 357 00:20:47.279 --> 00:20:53.440 younger player. So if jagober Set plays, I mean, are 358 00:20:53.480 --> 00:20:56.279 we are we really sure that Jagobra Pressett is a 359 00:20:56.440 --> 00:21:00.880 worse passer than Colin Murray? If you're just talking out 360 00:21:00.880 --> 00:21:03.839 of the pocket, Yes, I don't think we are. I 361 00:21:03.839 --> 00:21:04.440 don't think we're that. 362 00:21:04.839 --> 00:21:05.119 I don't. 363 00:21:05.119 --> 00:21:07.359 I don't. I don't think it's that big of downgrade. 364 00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:09.799 I'm gonna go with the affirmative on that one. 365 00:21:10.279 --> 00:21:12.279 I'm gonna be off this game completely. 366 00:21:12.559 --> 00:21:15.920 So I'm just playing now if you're saying, if you're saying, 367 00:21:16.039 --> 00:21:20.319 do I think that Jacoby Brisset can kind of just 368 00:21:20.440 --> 00:21:24.359 hold up? And yeah, that's a that's a different discussion though, 369 00:21:24.440 --> 00:21:26.559 Like but as far as like throwing the fucking football, 370 00:21:26.599 --> 00:21:28.039 it's not even close between those two. 371 00:21:28.839 --> 00:21:31.160 Yeah, but I'm saying, can you cover seven points to keep? 372 00:21:31.480 --> 00:21:33.559 No, you didn't say that. No, you didn't say that. 373 00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:35.759 If you say that, then I agree with you. You 374 00:21:35.880 --> 00:21:37.599 might have a bit. You might have a better shot 375 00:21:37.960 --> 00:21:40.599 with Jacob because we've seen it for years and years, 376 00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:45.920 him coming in and even though he's not God, yeah 377 00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:47.440 he's back. 378 00:21:48.200 --> 00:21:53.160 I remember very steeply. It was fucking Rams versus the 379 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:55.559 forty Nins. I had like the under forty nine. Its 380 00:21:55.599 --> 00:22:00.680 two years ago. He fucking comes in as sorry. 381 00:22:00.720 --> 00:22:02.319 I about to say, when did he play for either 382 00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:03.160 one of those teams? 383 00:22:03.440 --> 00:22:08.160 Arizona comes into the fucking backup. No, it was the 384 00:22:08.240 --> 00:22:11.039 Red Sorry, it was the Redskins and the Rams. 385 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:13.279 Okay, the Residents are. 386 00:22:13.279 --> 00:22:16.279 The doors blown off? I had all have was down 387 00:22:16.559 --> 00:22:23.720 under forty nine? He comes in after who was he 388 00:22:23.759 --> 00:22:25.960 got hurt? I can't even remember who the fucking quarterback 389 00:22:26.039 --> 00:22:30.440 was at that point. And he fucking scores two touchdowns 390 00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:32.640 in the fourth quarter and told the trash time, it 391 00:22:32.880 --> 00:22:37.480 blows my goddamn under just because he can simply take 392 00:22:37.559 --> 00:22:41.519 a snap, perform the offense, hit through his fucking backstep 393 00:22:41.559 --> 00:22:44.240 with his third, fifth or seven, and deliver a fucking 394 00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:47.839 football on fucking time. That's what jacobra for said, can 395 00:22:48.039 --> 00:22:53.079 absolutely fucking do and right now Calamerray not absolutely fucking 396 00:22:53.160 --> 00:22:56.680 doing that again, does it make it better than him? No? 397 00:22:57.000 --> 00:23:00.559 To your point, can they cover seven him? Yeah? Probably, 398 00:23:00.839 --> 00:23:01.160 I'm not. 399 00:23:01.240 --> 00:23:04.519 Betting on it, but whatever, Well, the coach had to 400 00:23:04.519 --> 00:23:07.440 write a check for one hundred thousand dollars this week, 401 00:23:07.599 --> 00:23:10.119 so that's uh, that's how one's gonna sting. 402 00:23:10.759 --> 00:23:13.759 Yeah, and that's a great one that you bring up. 403 00:23:13.960 --> 00:23:15.720 I didn't touch on it because I don't know. I 404 00:23:15.759 --> 00:23:17.799 don't know which way to go on. I really don't. 405 00:23:18.079 --> 00:23:20.000 Well, I don't think the whole locker room knows. Like 406 00:23:20.079 --> 00:23:21.799 I think it's gonna be divided and you're gonna have 407 00:23:21.880 --> 00:23:24.119 some that are like, man, fuck that fuck that guy. 408 00:23:24.519 --> 00:23:26.519 Both ways, it's gonna be like fuck that dude to 409 00:23:26.599 --> 00:23:29.759 dropped the ball. And he's a defensive coach, so it's 410 00:23:29.799 --> 00:23:32.599 probably offensive guys gonna be like the Mark. They're gonna, 411 00:23:32.680 --> 00:23:34.599 you know, defend, Hey, don't touch our guy, and the 412 00:23:34.680 --> 00:23:36.680 defense guy's like, hey, man, but yeah, but you fucked 413 00:23:36.720 --> 00:23:38.640 us out of a win, like you know you. So 414 00:23:38.920 --> 00:23:42.599 I don't know. It's it's uh not good times over 415 00:23:42.640 --> 00:23:45.319 there in arizon I'm glad I bailed off them winning 416 00:23:45.359 --> 00:23:47.359 this division. I was trying to pick somebody else beside 417 00:23:47.440 --> 00:23:50.559 San Frian and that's that's on the struggle bus right now. 418 00:23:50.640 --> 00:23:52.960 With San Francis, seemingly that just they just don't lose, 419 00:23:53.079 --> 00:23:55.599 because no matter all the fucking herd players in the 420 00:23:55.640 --> 00:23:58.319 world doesn't matter. Just keep fucking winning. But I belt 421 00:23:58.359 --> 00:24:00.359 off Arizona win with Seattle and we'll see how that 422 00:24:00.400 --> 00:24:00.920 plays out. 423 00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:05.160 Yeah. I was too high on Seattle coming in obviously. 424 00:24:05.279 --> 00:24:08.640 I just I had faith that, you know, this coach, 425 00:24:09.559 --> 00:24:12.119 he's had a team going and saw the right direction 426 00:24:12.759 --> 00:24:16.240 and I thought that caliber would take it at least 427 00:24:16.279 --> 00:24:17.240 a step forward. 428 00:24:18.039 --> 00:24:19.839 But I don't like the way he coached, so like 429 00:24:20.240 --> 00:24:23.359 take throw all that, like the way he coached that game, 430 00:24:23.640 --> 00:24:25.960 and he's not the offensive coordinator. I get it, he's 431 00:24:26.000 --> 00:24:27.119 not making the offensive calls. 432 00:24:27.279 --> 00:24:29.519 Yeah, he said that was a bitch as that was 433 00:24:31.000 --> 00:24:35.240 about to Oh my god, yeah, bitch ass fucking like, dude, 434 00:24:35.279 --> 00:24:39.799 you don't bitch out when you're dominating the whole game. 435 00:24:39.880 --> 00:24:42.039 And they did, and they did, and he signs off 436 00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:42.200 on that. 437 00:24:42.359 --> 00:24:46.400 You're right, all the momentum went to Tennessee though, So 438 00:24:46.559 --> 00:24:49.160 at that point, all the minimums with Tennessee and you 439 00:24:49.440 --> 00:24:51.759 you have to get a first down because they're literally 440 00:24:51.839 --> 00:24:55.119 they have you can't run, run, run in the middle 441 00:24:55.119 --> 00:24:57.319 of the fucking line. That was a horrible like so 442 00:24:57.720 --> 00:24:59.960 so now I'm looking at you sideways as the head 443 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:02.559 coach a little bit. So we'll see how that plays out. 444 00:25:03.799 --> 00:25:07.359 You were about that. That was fucking disgusting and I 445 00:25:07.480 --> 00:25:11.119 can't believe that he fucking did that. Shit. Let's move 446 00:25:11.160 --> 00:25:15.559 one of those Pittsburgh things. Oh coming off though, ye 447 00:25:15.720 --> 00:25:21.079 boys and girls hosting those Cleveland Browns. Good lord, they've 448 00:25:21.200 --> 00:25:25.680 went to fucking I don't know, Amstam and fucking back 449 00:25:25.759 --> 00:25:26.960 and now they have to go all the way to 450 00:25:27.000 --> 00:25:29.440 Pittsburgh to play their arrivals who are coming off of 451 00:25:30.279 --> 00:25:35.759 I don't know, twelve thirteen days rest. Oh, good lord, almighty. 452 00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:40.599 Uh Now this game it was Let's see what did 453 00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:44.400 I have? Well, I have Pittsburgh way fucking lower or 454 00:25:44.799 --> 00:25:49.319 at Cleveland way fucking lower than the market. So let's 455 00:25:49.359 --> 00:25:53.440 look at where we're at now live looks like five 456 00:25:53.480 --> 00:25:57.400 and a half juiced. Let's call it five point seven, 457 00:25:57.960 --> 00:26:01.000 somewhere between five and a half and six. Long morning. 458 00:26:01.319 --> 00:26:03.000 What do you like on this? Yeah, you want to 459 00:26:03.039 --> 00:26:06.319 get that Pittsburgh before it gets to six everywhere or higher. 460 00:26:06.559 --> 00:26:10.599 This is probably going well. Cleveland's defense is good in theory. 461 00:26:10.839 --> 00:26:12.559 It's not good on the road. I'll get to that, 462 00:26:13.440 --> 00:26:15.920 but in theory, the defense is good enough to where 463 00:26:15.960 --> 00:26:18.039 people are gonna want to keep this five and. 464 00:26:18.000 --> 00:26:18.640 A half right now. 465 00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:19.799 Yeah, grab it now. 466 00:26:21.200 --> 00:26:23.519 Where you can get it other than that is six? 467 00:26:23.880 --> 00:26:28.119 Where else six and juice the six at Bovada, So 468 00:26:28.640 --> 00:26:31.640 that's even six at westit even six at circa to 469 00:26:31.759 --> 00:26:34.599 the Sharper books in Vegas. But if the money keeps 470 00:26:34.599 --> 00:26:37.519 coming in which it is right now on Pittsburgh, you 471 00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:38.480 know which way it's going. 472 00:26:39.400 --> 00:26:42.440 Yeah, So this is like this is the spot of spots, 473 00:26:42.559 --> 00:26:45.920 and it's a little troublesome that everybody in the world 474 00:26:46.079 --> 00:26:49.079 knows this is the worst spot in the history of 475 00:26:49.160 --> 00:26:53.039 spots for Cleveland. Uh So that that gives me that 476 00:26:53.400 --> 00:26:57.039 I don't like that when everybody knows something and it's 477 00:26:57.240 --> 00:27:00.440 like that isn't even a point anymore. If everyone knows it, 478 00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:03.519 is it is it like this? You're not, Yeah, you 479 00:27:03.960 --> 00:27:05.519 have got you got no advantage there. 480 00:27:05.599 --> 00:27:08.559 But so the preseason line, just to put it in 481 00:27:08.599 --> 00:27:10.279 a contest, like I was way off, but I'll just 482 00:27:10.319 --> 00:27:13.720 give the bath Vegas prezeas line was Pittsburgh about six 483 00:27:13.799 --> 00:27:14.240 and a half. 484 00:27:15.519 --> 00:27:17.720 Okay, so that's probably where it's gonna settle in at. 485 00:27:18.200 --> 00:27:21.039 I mean, so let's just think about Lohren real quick. 486 00:27:21.160 --> 00:27:24.200 Let's just talk around table to this six and a 487 00:27:24.279 --> 00:27:27.720 half and now we have the and of course that 488 00:27:27.839 --> 00:27:31.880 preseason line tooking into effect the spot and everything else. Yeah, 489 00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:36.920 now are we saying at five and a half five 490 00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:39.960 point seven, five six? What everyone to say that we've 491 00:27:40.039 --> 00:27:43.599 seen half a point of downgrade for Pittsburgh or half 492 00:27:43.640 --> 00:27:47.680 a point of upgrade for Cleveland. With a quarterback's backing 493 00:27:47.759 --> 00:27:52.000 his second start, first time playing in Pittsburgh. Is that 494 00:27:52.160 --> 00:27:55.319 what we're saying is that we're saying that Cleveland somehow 495 00:27:55.400 --> 00:27:57.720 has gotten better in this spot. 496 00:27:58.240 --> 00:28:01.880 No, Cleveland's worst is especially with this new quarterback, the rookie. 497 00:28:02.160 --> 00:28:05.960 And how is Pittsburgh not better? They're they're probably gonna 498 00:28:05.960 --> 00:28:08.400 win this division, They're I mean. 499 00:28:08.559 --> 00:28:10.599 You know, it's funny. You know it's funny, and this 500 00:28:10.880 --> 00:28:13.920 this is insane thing. I looked up these stats three 501 00:28:13.960 --> 00:28:17.359 and one. Well, no, I look up these stats elither 502 00:28:17.359 --> 00:28:22.759 to day, So to bet to win the division? What 503 00:28:22.839 --> 00:28:25.799 would you guess Pittsburgh and Baltimore. 504 00:28:25.440 --> 00:28:29.400 Are right now, right now close to even? 505 00:28:31.240 --> 00:28:35.599 Is that not insane to you? Baltimore? Baltimore is one 506 00:28:35.640 --> 00:28:38.079 and four and they don't have the starting quarterback and 507 00:28:38.079 --> 00:28:39.359 they're not gonna happen this week. 508 00:28:39.279 --> 00:28:41.079 And they're gonna go one and they're gonna go one 509 00:28:41.119 --> 00:28:43.319 in five and Steelers are probably gonna be four and one. 510 00:28:43.440 --> 00:28:47.960 So yeah, it's insane. Is that not insane? It is? 511 00:28:48.680 --> 00:28:50.799 It is? So what is that telling you in the market? Like, 512 00:28:51.720 --> 00:28:58.720 how bo is this Pittsburgh like? For like, I don't know, 513 00:28:58.720 --> 00:29:00.480 I don't even know, and I'm just asked the question. 514 00:29:00.519 --> 00:29:01.200 I have no answer. 515 00:29:01.559 --> 00:29:05.039 I just think that I think there's too many I 516 00:29:05.160 --> 00:29:08.359 think that the the the ratings on Baltimore were so 517 00:29:08.599 --> 00:29:12.599 high that there's just too much prior set in to 518 00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:15.799 where the market can't adjust enough. And maybe they're not 519 00:29:15.839 --> 00:29:18.720 getting enough money. I don't know, because it's just for 520 00:29:18.960 --> 00:29:22.400 like two weeks now, or I guess how long has 521 00:29:22.480 --> 00:29:23.880 Lamar been out? Two weeks? 522 00:29:23.960 --> 00:29:24.400 Two weeks? 523 00:29:24.759 --> 00:29:29.400 Yeah, well, this will be a second, second or third. No, 524 00:29:29.599 --> 00:29:34.200 so he went out during the right, Okay, Yeah, so 525 00:29:34.400 --> 00:29:36.240 so for a week and a half, it's been just 526 00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:40.160 way undervalued and this will probably be the breaking point 527 00:29:40.319 --> 00:29:43.759 and you'll get like just retarded, retarded changing of the 528 00:29:43.880 --> 00:29:45.680 of the numbers on you. 529 00:29:46.119 --> 00:29:48.480 So you have your best bet right now, like fuck 530 00:29:48.599 --> 00:29:52.359 this game. Fuck betting this game. Your best bet right 531 00:29:52.440 --> 00:29:54.640 now would have to be betting Pittsburgh plus one the 532 00:29:54.680 --> 00:29:55.920 win division, right, is. 533 00:29:55.920 --> 00:29:59.119 That what it is? Plus one? Ten? Well then yeah, yeah, 534 00:29:59.240 --> 00:30:00.400 because it's so. 535 00:30:00.480 --> 00:30:02.880 Fuck this game completely off, Like, don't even bet this game. 536 00:30:03.000 --> 00:30:05.319 Just bet Pittsburgh plus ones in the win division. 537 00:30:05.920 --> 00:30:07.759 I mean sure, but I mean I like Pittsburgh in 538 00:30:07.799 --> 00:30:11.480 this game too, but like, uh sure, why would you double? 539 00:30:11.559 --> 00:30:13.839 Like I mean, I get where gamblers whatever. 540 00:30:13.880 --> 00:30:15.480 Oh I'm making a pick on every game. It's not 541 00:30:15.720 --> 00:30:17.880 not necessarily that I'm gonna put this game out, But like. 542 00:30:19.480 --> 00:30:22.960 In your gambling portfolio, I'm just speaking the kind of 543 00:30:23.599 --> 00:30:27.839 elevator turns. Like in your gambling portfolio, you would have 544 00:30:27.960 --> 00:30:30.720 to have a Pittsburgh plus once into your portfolio at 545 00:30:30.759 --> 00:30:31.319 this point. 546 00:30:31.519 --> 00:30:36.720 Right, I mean unless you think that, and uh, Cincinnati 547 00:30:36.839 --> 00:30:37.519 is gonna make. 548 00:30:37.440 --> 00:30:41.079 A there's no chance. That's it. That's the other thing. 549 00:30:41.400 --> 00:30:43.400 These have no chance. 550 00:30:43.640 --> 00:30:47.079 They're they're all dead. It's it's basically every team is dead. 551 00:30:47.160 --> 00:30:50.799 Like I mean, Baltimore will start winning games after because 552 00:30:50.799 --> 00:30:53.119 there they got a buy after this one. They're kind 553 00:30:53.160 --> 00:30:55.039 of packing it in and just waiting for the buy. 554 00:30:55.160 --> 00:30:58.160 And and if they don't go on like a six 555 00:30:58.279 --> 00:31:00.960 game winning streak to eat at least make it interesting 556 00:31:01.079 --> 00:31:04.839 towards the end, they can and once they get healthy. 557 00:31:05.000 --> 00:31:07.759 But here's the thing, because they weren't even even when 558 00:31:07.799 --> 00:31:11.880 they were healthy to start the year, we saw major issues. Yeah, like, 559 00:31:12.279 --> 00:31:14.799 which is kind I mean, how I don't know that. 560 00:31:14.920 --> 00:31:17.079 Weird things happen in football. You can have an all 561 00:31:17.160 --> 00:31:21.200 star looking type unit on paper, and and just in football, 562 00:31:21.279 --> 00:31:24.799 it's so it's just so different. It can be it 563 00:31:24.880 --> 00:31:28.640 can just go sideways for for whatever a variety of reasons. 564 00:31:28.720 --> 00:31:33.960 And and it's happening this year to Baltimore and yeah, Pittsburgh. 565 00:31:34.880 --> 00:31:37.599 Win the Super Bowl, I can't be more proud. 566 00:31:39.519 --> 00:31:40.599 Well, look, you can't. 567 00:31:41.279 --> 00:31:45.039 You knew, you knew. We've never ever of the show. 568 00:31:47.160 --> 00:31:50.480 So did that probably, I. 569 00:31:50.480 --> 00:31:53.599 Think probably when if that happens next year on our 570 00:31:53.680 --> 00:31:57.160 preseason pod, I'm probably gonna do it audible. No, I'm 571 00:31:57.200 --> 00:32:02.480 just gonna do audible like that until that pot ends. 572 00:32:03.319 --> 00:32:06.200 I can change it. Until that pot ends, I can 573 00:32:06.279 --> 00:32:08.079 change So if if it comes down to that last 574 00:32:08.119 --> 00:32:11.599 seroal pick and you've got let's just say, let's make 575 00:32:11.640 --> 00:32:13.720 it realistic and say that we both have the Cowboys. 576 00:32:14.000 --> 00:32:16.440 That was a joke. Hope everybody got Hope, everybody got it. 577 00:32:18.119 --> 00:32:19.920 If we both got the Cowboys. And now I'm gonna 578 00:32:19.920 --> 00:32:22.559 be like, no, I'm throwing the challenge flag. I'm changing 579 00:32:22.640 --> 00:32:25.480 mind to do at you know, X, y Z, so whatever. 580 00:32:25.640 --> 00:32:27.920 But that's fine, you can do that because if we're 581 00:32:27.960 --> 00:32:30.119 both in the field, I'm just gonna fade that team 582 00:32:30.279 --> 00:32:31.920 for like the first eight weeks. 583 00:32:32.000 --> 00:32:33.960 That's that's another way I attack it too. That's another 584 00:32:33.960 --> 00:32:35.680 way I take it, but just to finish this game, 585 00:32:37.240 --> 00:32:41.440 Pittsburgh's getting healthy. Talked about the spot rookie quarterback, international 586 00:32:41.519 --> 00:32:46.880 flight back on the road, back on the road after 587 00:32:46.960 --> 00:32:50.839 an international game against a good defense. That's getting Heistmith back, 588 00:32:50.920 --> 00:32:55.400 Joey Porter junior back uh and Tomlin Tomlan who coming 589 00:32:55.480 --> 00:32:58.119 off a bye is actually pretty good. So he's he's 590 00:32:58.119 --> 00:33:01.279 seven to three off a bye in the first half 591 00:33:01.319 --> 00:33:02.680 of the season. Like, you haven't buy in the first 592 00:33:02.680 --> 00:33:04.880 half of the season. This is one of his sweet spots. 593 00:33:06.119 --> 00:33:09.920 Weird trade for Cleveland. Cleveland made a weird trade with Jacksonville. 594 00:33:10.599 --> 00:33:13.440 Like and they obviously traded flaccoh too, but that not 595 00:33:13.559 --> 00:33:16.519 that that one matters, Yeah, but don't care the Flako 596 00:33:16.519 --> 00:33:18.319 one that doesn't matter in this game. That don't matter 597 00:33:18.559 --> 00:33:22.759 in a different game. But they traded Greg Newsom their cornerback, 598 00:33:22.960 --> 00:33:28.279 for Campbell, the cornerback for Jacksonville. Weird on both sides. 599 00:33:28.319 --> 00:33:32.519 I don't I don't really get it either way. And 600 00:33:32.599 --> 00:33:36.240 I haven't heard like any inside stories on why exactly 601 00:33:36.359 --> 00:33:40.160 and who initiated or because Campbell's Campbell's not playing well, 602 00:33:40.559 --> 00:33:43.960 but he has played well in the past. Newsom has 603 00:33:43.960 --> 00:33:46.359 always been a kind of decent number two cornerback. I 604 00:33:46.359 --> 00:33:51.119 don't know, just weird shit going on. I mean he's 605 00:33:51.160 --> 00:33:53.960 had some jag years like Campbell is this year. I 606 00:33:53.960 --> 00:33:55.880 don't know. This is weird, just weird. So give me 607 00:33:55.960 --> 00:34:01.599 Pittsburgh and in every way including division to win. 608 00:34:02.000 --> 00:34:04.319 All right, So you did throw the tumult after the 609 00:34:04.359 --> 00:34:06.680 bi However, I do need to throw this in just 610 00:34:06.720 --> 00:34:12.039 so everybody knows, since twenty eighteen, after the buy your 611 00:34:12.199 --> 00:34:15.679 home and your favorite, it's the worst spot. Twenty nine 612 00:34:15.719 --> 00:34:18.519 and forty two and three, ATS loses about one point. 613 00:34:18.599 --> 00:34:22.239 It's forty eight point forty point eight percent on Arizona 614 00:34:22.360 --> 00:34:25.480 six point three. That's about where we're gonna land at 615 00:34:25.920 --> 00:34:28.920 forty four point nine on the toe, fifty three point 616 00:34:29.119 --> 00:34:32.239 four percent to the over the one point over, so 617 00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:37.280 thirty and a half is fucking gross. So not a 618 00:34:37.360 --> 00:34:41.280 good trend to back Pittsburgh there. However, you said toumm's 619 00:34:41.320 --> 00:34:44.559 that trend beater, so we'll see which way that ends 620 00:34:44.639 --> 00:34:48.320 up slipping to make my card either way. Uh, all right, 621 00:34:48.400 --> 00:34:51.639 let's move on to those care a lot of panthers bristils. 622 00:34:52.159 --> 00:34:58.719 This can all right, This one is interesting as fucked me. 623 00:34:59.000 --> 00:35:05.280 So I had this game as pick Vegas has it 624 00:35:05.960 --> 00:35:09.760 had at Carolina plus one and a half. It is 625 00:35:09.880 --> 00:35:15.840 now Dallas minus three live as we said, So I 626 00:35:15.960 --> 00:35:18.880 was close in Vegas on this one. I don't know, 627 00:35:19.119 --> 00:35:19.800 lohe where you go? 628 00:35:21.119 --> 00:35:23.800 Yeah, on this one, I was kind of like, much 629 00:35:23.960 --> 00:35:27.480 like the New York Jets Dallas Cowboys matchup last week, 630 00:35:27.559 --> 00:35:31.199 I was I like Carolina, especially at the three and 631 00:35:31.239 --> 00:35:33.559 a half. It's at three now, so it's you kind 632 00:35:33.599 --> 00:35:36.239 of lost somebody there. It's kind of struggling back and forth, 633 00:35:36.280 --> 00:35:37.960 which which one do I like on this one? And 634 00:35:38.039 --> 00:35:40.760 I finally land on I don't. I'm not taking either ones. 635 00:35:40.800 --> 00:35:43.599 I'm just gonna take the over because we've saw last week. 636 00:35:44.159 --> 00:35:47.760 Even if Dallas plays okay defense for a while, they're 637 00:35:47.800 --> 00:35:50.400 not a good defense. The Jets rolled up. You know, 638 00:35:52.000 --> 00:35:54.519 those are like almost twenty second half points on them, 639 00:35:55.519 --> 00:35:57.760 and Carolina they're not a good defense. So and we 640 00:35:57.920 --> 00:36:01.400 know Dak destroys bad teams. He's sixty five percent ats 641 00:36:01.480 --> 00:36:04.199 against bad teams in his career. It's just what he does. 642 00:36:04.440 --> 00:36:06.800 So he did last week to the Jets. That was 643 00:36:06.840 --> 00:36:09.119 my fear last week. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna 644 00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:11.840 bum my head against that wall again this week. And 645 00:36:11.880 --> 00:36:13.800 then on top of that, the Cowboys can't stop the run. 646 00:36:14.280 --> 00:36:18.920 So we've got Chuba Hubbard probably coming back this week. 647 00:36:19.079 --> 00:36:21.599 We got Rego Dawdle, you know, kind of his uh 648 00:36:21.639 --> 00:36:25.519 his payback for the castile. So Caroline's gonna score, Cowboys 649 00:36:25.519 --> 00:36:27.440 are gonna score. I'm not fucking around with with his 650 00:36:27.639 --> 00:36:30.400 number anymore in this game. And just give me the over. 651 00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:32.840 I think it's around forty nine fifty, you know, right 652 00:36:32.960 --> 00:36:36.159 right there in that in that sweet spot, so you 653 00:36:36.239 --> 00:36:39.760 know it. Just I'm not I'm not trying to get 654 00:36:39.800 --> 00:36:41.239 too cute here. Just give me the over. 655 00:36:42.639 --> 00:36:46.119 All, right, So I've got this one power range is ready, 656 00:36:46.199 --> 00:36:50.719 Carolina buckets Carolina to no call dto Carolina. I've got it. 657 00:36:50.920 --> 00:36:54.880 Cowboys winning twenty, which be to the undup. And if 658 00:36:54.880 --> 00:37:01.039 you factor in my new uh SO, team's great. It's 659 00:37:01.119 --> 00:37:03.360 twenty four to twenty, which is to the under. Salon 660 00:37:03.599 --> 00:37:08.400 is gonna lose one is over bet, so don't follow 661 00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:12.920 him on that. Now. This is literally we say this 662 00:37:13.000 --> 00:37:15.199 every week. So one of the best grades, the fucking 663 00:37:15.239 --> 00:37:17.119 Briscoe is gonna have it. You can't step with the 664 00:37:17.159 --> 00:37:21.440 BVG through the shitty fucking aboys defense. But here's the thing, girls, 665 00:37:22.039 --> 00:37:25.320 Dad actually loses half a point this Carolina saying there 666 00:37:25.480 --> 00:37:29.480 is getting better, it's getting better. Not staying it's good, 667 00:37:29.760 --> 00:37:35.199 but it's getting better. It's getting it's getting better. Now, 668 00:37:35.320 --> 00:37:39.079 Carolina's flat through the running game. Dallas actually does gain 669 00:37:39.679 --> 00:37:41.480 a point though through the running game there, so that 670 00:37:41.559 --> 00:37:44.280 should help them. That's what should carry them to the win. Here, 671 00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:47.360 it's a no call for me on the line. I'm 672 00:37:47.440 --> 00:37:50.239 like along over that. I don't care anything about the line, 673 00:37:51.800 --> 00:37:53.880 you know, It's it's one of those things that it 674 00:37:54.000 --> 00:37:57.480 might end up making my card at three, just depending 675 00:37:57.480 --> 00:38:00.119 on how the rest of the data flows in. However, Well, 676 00:38:00.679 --> 00:38:05.639 all the money's coming out Carolina. You know, the market's 677 00:38:05.679 --> 00:38:10.920 coming on Carolina. It's I don't know, but I would 678 00:38:11.000 --> 00:38:13.519 lean Carolina and the under here. I would not take 679 00:38:13.559 --> 00:38:15.719 the over. He's dead wrong about that. He's gonna lose. 680 00:38:16.159 --> 00:38:19.840 He's gonna lose, and you should take the under and 681 00:38:20.920 --> 00:38:21.599 lean Carolina. 682 00:38:22.639 --> 00:38:24.559 M M all right. 683 00:38:25.159 --> 00:38:31.199 Moving on to those my Hammer dogs hosting those Sandyaco 684 00:38:31.639 --> 00:38:39.199 super charges, and they are currently let's see four point 685 00:38:40.199 --> 00:38:45.119 home dogs now. Preseason, I had this the charges of 686 00:38:45.159 --> 00:38:51.679 minus two and Vegas said it one and a half, 687 00:38:53.000 --> 00:38:59.239 so close with no cigar, we're sitting for a little 688 00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:03.320 bit worse. What's I mean? I think, Longhorn, that's a 689 00:39:03.480 --> 00:39:07.400 fair downgrade on Miami so far. And I was hired 690 00:39:07.440 --> 00:39:09.880 on Miami murdered for the most part, so that tells 691 00:39:09.960 --> 00:39:13.559 me that this number is pretty fair. Here, what do 692 00:39:13.639 --> 00:39:14.079 you got on this? 693 00:39:14.440 --> 00:39:15.719 What's a sitting at right now? 694 00:39:16.320 --> 00:39:16.519 Four? 695 00:39:17.239 --> 00:39:20.719 Four? Yeah, this one, This one just feels like a 696 00:39:20.920 --> 00:39:25.519 Miami spot that I'm gonna probably reluctantly have to be 697 00:39:25.719 --> 00:39:28.159 on in some form of fashion, but on you know, 698 00:39:28.280 --> 00:39:32.320 on paper, on paper, this should be a nice little 699 00:39:32.360 --> 00:39:36.000 spot for the Charters. You know, bad pass rush for Miami, 700 00:39:36.239 --> 00:39:39.039 which is weird because they have good pass rushers, horrible 701 00:39:39.159 --> 00:39:42.840 secondary for Miami, which we knew going in, so it's 702 00:39:42.880 --> 00:39:45.719 a bad setup. Charters should be able to take advantage 703 00:39:45.719 --> 00:39:45.880 of that. 704 00:39:46.960 --> 00:39:52.800 But they broken, Like are they are? Like? Are they broken? 705 00:39:53.400 --> 00:39:58.039 The Charters are? Their offense is going to be broken 706 00:39:58.239 --> 00:40:02.480 if they're running out second and third string offensive lineman and. 707 00:40:04.519 --> 00:40:08.880 Use like literally use all receivers off his love like 708 00:40:09.199 --> 00:40:13.119 every excuse you ever, like it's always excuses for her. 709 00:40:13.199 --> 00:40:15.599 At some point, can the dude just like be the dude, 710 00:40:15.719 --> 00:40:16.639 can be the dude? 711 00:40:16.760 --> 00:40:19.840 I don't know, and mahomes be the dude. He's two 712 00:40:19.880 --> 00:40:22.280 and four? Can he be the dude with without without 713 00:40:22.280 --> 00:40:27.480 one straight championship? Okay, but my point being, you have 714 00:40:27.559 --> 00:40:30.159 to have players. When he had players, he was three 715 00:40:30.199 --> 00:40:33.800 and oh. I'm not making excuses I'm making I'm giving 716 00:40:34.000 --> 00:40:36.400 reasons why they're losing games now because they don't have 717 00:40:36.440 --> 00:40:38.119 their players. I mean, what do you mean, tell you 718 00:40:38.480 --> 00:40:41.639 they got they got? I mean they should win this game. 719 00:40:41.760 --> 00:40:44.320 They I mean, and you know they're favored, so they 720 00:40:44.480 --> 00:40:47.119 clearly they should. If they don't, it's because they're not 721 00:40:47.119 --> 00:40:49.400 gonna be able to score. And Herbert's not good in 722 00:40:49.480 --> 00:40:52.679 one score games historically, is not what he does. So 723 00:40:52.920 --> 00:40:55.440 if this, if this is gonna be a one score 724 00:40:55.519 --> 00:40:59.360 game and he's gonna like, it's just I don't. I 725 00:40:59.400 --> 00:41:01.239 don't see this own. Well, I'm gonna have to take 726 00:41:01.239 --> 00:41:03.239 the four points. I would prefer the four and a half, 727 00:41:03.320 --> 00:41:06.679 but that's kind of gone everywhere, so I don't. I mean, 728 00:41:06.800 --> 00:41:10.400 cross country, you're going cross country and the heat. I mean, 729 00:41:10.400 --> 00:41:12.440 I know they're I know they're from California, so maybe 730 00:41:12.440 --> 00:41:14.760 it won't be too bad. But that's and is this a. 731 00:41:16.559 --> 00:41:17.559 Miami is a lot different? 732 00:41:18.079 --> 00:41:20.880 Yeah, and it's a it's a noon kickoff. So they 733 00:41:21.159 --> 00:41:24.679 we saw the Chargers go to the Giants. That was 734 00:41:24.719 --> 00:41:28.239 a noon kickoff game. Uh. They they didn't look they 735 00:41:28.280 --> 00:41:31.039 didn't look great. Uh they won that. Yeah, they won 736 00:41:31.119 --> 00:41:32.519 that game, but it wasn't pretty. 737 00:41:32.679 --> 00:41:33.280 They lost. 738 00:41:33.599 --> 00:41:39.320 Do they lose that one? Okay? Yeah, so okay, yeah, 739 00:41:39.800 --> 00:41:42.239 I've got to reluctantly take by the way. 740 00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:47.079 So like literally this money is crashing down, crashing. 741 00:41:46.800 --> 00:41:48.920 But I don't feel good about Miami either, because they 742 00:41:49.159 --> 00:41:52.079 are just not And you know, if if the Chargers, 743 00:41:52.159 --> 00:41:53.559 if the Chargers are gonna win, it's gonna be a 744 00:41:53.800 --> 00:41:56.880 discussing seventeen to thirteen win, it's gonna be low scoring. 745 00:41:57.199 --> 00:41:59.480 Miami sucks on offense right now, they got their their 746 00:41:59.519 --> 00:42:02.119 weapons are just fading fast and to it, we know 747 00:42:02.239 --> 00:42:04.960 that he's limited. Also, I mean it's the same sort 748 00:42:05.000 --> 00:42:07.079 with any of these quarterbacks that aren't the all time grace. 749 00:42:07.119 --> 00:42:09.480 They're gonna be limited unless everything is kind of the 750 00:42:09.519 --> 00:42:11.760 way it's supposed to be around them. And and it's 751 00:42:11.840 --> 00:42:13.360 not right now for Miami, and it's not right now 752 00:42:13.400 --> 00:42:15.920 for the Chargers. So low scoring. Give in a low 753 00:42:15.960 --> 00:42:18.960 scoring game, always lean to the points, you know. That's 754 00:42:19.000 --> 00:42:21.880 that's what the side I'm gonna be on, all right. 755 00:42:22.199 --> 00:42:25.719 So powerings are on the charters bucket. No call B two, 756 00:42:25.800 --> 00:42:28.039 no call D two, no call forty three and a 757 00:42:28.119 --> 00:42:30.639 half percent a hundred. It's a long worm's point, disgusting, 758 00:42:30.760 --> 00:42:33.960 ugly game. The BBG has its great out twenty two 759 00:42:34.199 --> 00:42:37.719 to twenty LAC so all a lot of numbers agree 760 00:42:37.719 --> 00:42:43.599 with him. Home quarterback matchup, it's not. It's a terrible 761 00:42:43.679 --> 00:42:46.199 matchup for two. He loses a point and a half 762 00:42:46.320 --> 00:42:51.679 of the BBG to this. I believe LC defense. It's 763 00:42:51.719 --> 00:42:54.480 a flat matchup for herbs. It's a flat matchup for 764 00:42:54.559 --> 00:42:58.320 both running games. There's no advantage there. Look, if you're 765 00:42:58.320 --> 00:43:01.800 gonna tell me that herbs will be just herbs and 766 00:43:02.039 --> 00:43:04.599 two is gonna suck and they're both gonna run the 767 00:43:04.639 --> 00:43:08.320 ball at the cliff that normally run the ball, I'll 768 00:43:08.400 --> 00:43:11.719 take the under. I'll take Miami and are disgusting, Like 769 00:43:11.840 --> 00:43:17.639 you said, just gross, just sweaty fucking win that I 770 00:43:17.719 --> 00:43:20.320 probably won't end up betting. But iree with you. 771 00:43:20.599 --> 00:43:22.320 I mean this game should be like a thirty eight 772 00:43:22.360 --> 00:43:24.199 and a half thirty nine and a half over Runner, 773 00:43:24.280 --> 00:43:27.039 not forty three and a half. That's that's I don't 774 00:43:27.039 --> 00:43:28.280 I don't know where they get the points. 775 00:43:28.679 --> 00:43:35.079 But it's the potential, it's the it's it's the implication. 776 00:43:35.280 --> 00:43:39.239 It's the implication implication of the points that won't happen. 777 00:43:39.599 --> 00:43:44.920 It's the implication. All right, let's be won those Baltimore Ravens. 778 00:43:45.079 --> 00:43:50.000 Good God almighty, did I even do it right up? 779 00:43:50.119 --> 00:43:50.159 No? 780 00:43:50.280 --> 00:43:52.360 I didn't even do it right up? So this will 781 00:43:52.360 --> 00:43:52.719 be quick. 782 00:43:53.239 --> 00:43:53.599 All right? 783 00:43:53.800 --> 00:43:57.320 There was those Los Angeles Rams. I won't go even 784 00:43:57.400 --> 00:43:59.960 go over the priests numbers. They don't fucking matter. Yeah, 785 00:44:00.039 --> 00:44:04.960 because there is a Lamar, So no Lamart. 786 00:44:05.559 --> 00:44:08.639 There's like no fucking eighteen players on this team. What 787 00:44:08.679 --> 00:44:10.320 do you mean including Lamar? 788 00:44:10.440 --> 00:44:14.199 Yes, well Hamilton should be back if that does anything 789 00:44:14.280 --> 00:44:17.199 for you. But what doesn't do anything for you is 790 00:44:17.320 --> 00:44:20.119 exactly what I just I literally said this last week 791 00:44:20.159 --> 00:44:22.599 the podcast, And I've kicked myself on the ball so 792 00:44:22.920 --> 00:44:27.280 hard for not betting Houston when I said on the podcast, 793 00:44:27.679 --> 00:44:33.760 they've built this offense around one dude that is the 794 00:44:33.960 --> 00:44:40.360 most mobile, most athletic, most dynamic player we have ever 795 00:44:40.719 --> 00:44:44.159 seen in the NFL, and now you stick this fucking 796 00:44:45.480 --> 00:44:50.440 ginger pie's the ship Cooper Rush in there, and you 797 00:44:50.559 --> 00:44:56.800 expected to even come close to expectation. And I said 798 00:44:56.880 --> 00:45:00.880 that out loud, and yet I didn't bet Houston minus 799 00:45:00.960 --> 00:45:06.119 two because I'm retarded. So I'll just set it up 800 00:45:06.119 --> 00:45:12.320 again just like that and say, okay, will you trust 801 00:45:13.039 --> 00:45:15.800 the Los Angeles Rams lay seven and a half points 802 00:45:15.880 --> 00:45:21.519 on the road versus give the get Hamilton back? Fantastic, fantastic, 803 00:45:22.320 --> 00:45:25.599 But there's still no war. We're stuck with this ginger 804 00:45:26.079 --> 00:45:28.920 piece of shit. Cooper Rush, Longhorn, what do you got? 805 00:45:29.920 --> 00:45:32.360 I mean, yeah, no, right up on this one. It's 806 00:45:32.400 --> 00:45:34.639 just I don't even recognize as Baltimore team. I barely 807 00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:37.719 recognize them when they were all healthy. So it's it's 808 00:45:38.400 --> 00:45:40.360 take the Rams any which way you can get them. 809 00:45:40.920 --> 00:45:46.239 You don't tease down road favorites, but you know, if 810 00:45:46.280 --> 00:45:49.320 you're if you're into non wongs, then maybe maybe you 811 00:45:49.639 --> 00:45:53.000 do that here. Maybe do just a money line, parlay 812 00:45:53.239 --> 00:45:56.119 on on the the Rams and plug them into like 813 00:45:56.159 --> 00:45:58.599 a five team or whatever, because those is so many 814 00:45:58.639 --> 00:46:00.880 favorites this week. I don't think I have any shot 815 00:46:00.960 --> 00:46:07.280 of losing. This is one of them. It's just by 816 00:46:07.360 --> 00:46:11.000 the way, Baltimore's got a bye next week, so they're 817 00:46:11.079 --> 00:46:17.280 literally just just just get us to the by, let's 818 00:46:17.320 --> 00:46:19.360 get some players back and try to make a second 819 00:46:19.639 --> 00:46:23.199 half kind of run at the division, because that's their 820 00:46:23.199 --> 00:46:26.559 only their only shot now is not even the division 821 00:46:26.599 --> 00:46:28.519 that you know, even they can just scrap out a 822 00:46:28.599 --> 00:46:30.920 wild card. That's their only hope in the second half. 823 00:46:31.039 --> 00:46:34.280 So yeah, it's it's a it's all and and the 824 00:46:34.519 --> 00:46:36.599 chart and asserts me. The Rams are coming off a loss, 825 00:46:36.719 --> 00:46:38.760 a bad loss one and they should have they should 826 00:46:38.760 --> 00:46:41.000 have could have won. So they're coming in looking to 827 00:46:41.039 --> 00:46:42.760 get that redemption win and that that they. 828 00:46:43.000 --> 00:46:44.519 Should have could have won. My ass, they got the 829 00:46:45.039 --> 00:46:46.800 ass whipped, that's what they got. 830 00:46:48.880 --> 00:46:52.320 Yeah, when they fumbled on the one yard line with 831 00:46:52.440 --> 00:46:56.880 with no time left, they fumbled on the one with 832 00:46:57.119 --> 00:46:59.719 with almost no time left, they would have won the game. 833 00:47:00.639 --> 00:47:04.079 No, they had the ball on overtime, before overtime, they 834 00:47:04.159 --> 00:47:06.960 founded on the one on the one and would have 835 00:47:07.000 --> 00:47:09.679 won the game. So yeah, before it got to overtime. 836 00:47:10.360 --> 00:47:12.039 I mean San Francs still have plenty of time. 837 00:47:12.920 --> 00:47:15.400 No they didn't, but go ahead they did not? 838 00:47:16.280 --> 00:47:20.480 Yeah, they did, Okay, So on this one. You've got 839 00:47:20.760 --> 00:47:25.519 a home dog before by which is the very best 840 00:47:25.559 --> 00:47:31.039 fot fifty nine point six percent ats twenty eight nineteen 841 00:47:31.199 --> 00:47:35.119 and two average out of four point three. Now again 842 00:47:35.800 --> 00:47:37.960 for all those with their starring quarterbacks, none of those 843 00:47:37.960 --> 00:47:40.760 story course, I don't fucking know. It's is twenty eighteen. 844 00:47:40.880 --> 00:47:44.800 Who fucking knows. But here is where the first part 845 00:47:44.920 --> 00:47:55.760 of the numbers gig back the week comes in. Yeah, 846 00:47:57.960 --> 00:48:04.280 it's coming. I promise this coun no fucking nerd with 847 00:48:04.519 --> 00:48:09.679 your nerd half there it is all right. So so 848 00:48:10.000 --> 00:48:12.760 if you are going on the ball and a home 849 00:48:12.840 --> 00:48:17.280 dog between seven and ten, I don't know all the 850 00:48:17.360 --> 00:48:20.480 records or whatever, but what I do know is on 851 00:48:20.599 --> 00:48:23.559 an Amazona seven point six, which does exactly whe we're 852 00:48:23.559 --> 00:48:26.280 sitting at. If you tease that up six points, you're 853 00:48:26.480 --> 00:48:30.679 five and one. That's eighty three point three percent we're 854 00:48:30.760 --> 00:48:33.079 doing with six and a half point teaser we're doing 855 00:48:33.119 --> 00:48:36.000 to the fourteen. We're gonna fucking make it happen. Boys goes. 856 00:48:36.039 --> 00:48:40.119 That's one half of the numbers. Get pick of the week, 857 00:48:40.519 --> 00:48:43.360 like Baltimore is too proud of a team to fucking 858 00:48:43.400 --> 00:48:46.239 get blown out two weeks in a row. They're fucking home. 859 00:48:46.280 --> 00:48:49.840 I don't fucking with Cooper Rush Rams fucking they like 860 00:48:49.920 --> 00:48:52.320 to play with their food and they suck on the road. 861 00:48:53.280 --> 00:48:56.920 There's there's gotta be some hard ball fucking you know, 862 00:48:57.159 --> 00:48:59.519 they've got to stand there ground right here. They win 863 00:48:59.599 --> 00:49:02.760 in this game, probably not to my buddy's point. If 864 00:49:02.800 --> 00:49:06.840 you still have the Rams alive and you're survivor contest, 865 00:49:06.920 --> 00:49:09.079 it's not that's not the pick this week. I'll give 866 00:49:09.079 --> 00:49:11.400 you the pick later this week. That should be your pick. 867 00:49:12.159 --> 00:49:14.719 But you know, if that's where you're at, if that's 868 00:49:14.719 --> 00:49:18.039 where you're down to, it's not a bad pick. However, 869 00:49:19.719 --> 00:49:23.599 Baltimore losing by more than fourteen I don't like that. 870 00:49:23.800 --> 00:49:25.800 I started fourteen and a half if you go six 871 00:49:25.960 --> 00:49:29.679 six and a half, So I like Baltimore plus the 872 00:49:29.760 --> 00:49:35.039 fourteen and a half here on the non long Teasa. 873 00:49:38.280 --> 00:49:42.960 All right, let's move on to those Tampa pub baks. Oh, 874 00:49:43.280 --> 00:49:46.519 this is one of the games of the fucking week. Hustle, 875 00:49:46.880 --> 00:49:52.079 San Francisco, pull it in nips all right. Preseason on 876 00:49:52.159 --> 00:49:59.280 this I had Tampa my or sorry plus one and 877 00:49:59.599 --> 00:50:02.639 Vegas Tampa minus one half, So Bays beat me on this. 878 00:50:04.760 --> 00:50:09.440 Tampa is sitting at plus three currently. I believe at 879 00:50:09.480 --> 00:50:11.480 this game so long, Homer, do you got on this? 880 00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:15.559 Yeah, on this one. You know, I'm gonna end up 881 00:50:15.639 --> 00:50:18.480 being on San Francisco plus the three. It just it 882 00:50:18.519 --> 00:50:21.679 feels like Tampa Bay is playing with fire too much. 883 00:50:22.239 --> 00:50:26.360 They live in these close games laying three again, you know, 884 00:50:27.719 --> 00:50:29.440 I mean, just how many times? How many times can 885 00:50:29.480 --> 00:50:32.440 you can you win one possession games coming down to 886 00:50:32.480 --> 00:50:34.239 the very end. And even if it comes down to 887 00:50:34.320 --> 00:50:37.039 the very end and Tampa Bay can still this game, 888 00:50:37.360 --> 00:50:39.519 it still has to be by three or more for 889 00:50:39.599 --> 00:50:42.119 you to cover. So you know, I know Mac Jones 890 00:50:42.199 --> 00:50:45.440 is starting at this point. I don't really particularly care, 891 00:50:45.880 --> 00:50:49.239 you know, whichever one is the healthiest, whichever one is 892 00:50:49.280 --> 00:50:51.440 the healthiest, just throw them out there. We don't know 893 00:50:51.480 --> 00:50:55.000 about the wide receivers playing yet, at least I haven't heard, 894 00:50:55.559 --> 00:50:56.360 hopefully Pierson. 895 00:50:57.280 --> 00:50:58.480 I don't thinking. 896 00:51:00.079 --> 00:51:03.320 Yeah. So look, I don't like the fact that San 897 00:51:03.320 --> 00:51:06.559 Francisco pulled the rabbit out of their hat last week 898 00:51:06.800 --> 00:51:10.039 and got that win. But Tama Baseman doing a whole lot. 899 00:51:09.920 --> 00:51:12.039 Of that completely dominated a game you gotta win. 900 00:51:12.159 --> 00:51:16.119 I don't know, Yeah, Tama Baseman doing that all year long, 901 00:51:16.400 --> 00:51:18.679 so I mean they're. 902 00:51:19.199 --> 00:51:23.119 Completely dominated games. They played rabbit hats, that's for sure. 903 00:51:24.079 --> 00:51:29.239 Yeah, So well, how do you completely dominate a game 904 00:51:29.480 --> 00:51:30.880 when you jump up fourteen? 905 00:51:31.000 --> 00:51:34.239 Yeah, you had forty minutes of possession. You had fucking 906 00:51:34.679 --> 00:51:40.480 uh you had Let's see what the rest of it is. 907 00:51:41.800 --> 00:51:45.800 I'm looking through your Yeah, more penalt up rams. That 908 00:51:45.920 --> 00:51:48.079 did have two turnovers, So. 909 00:51:49.559 --> 00:51:52.079 That's that's not that's those are random. 910 00:51:52.719 --> 00:51:56.599 Yeah, I mean, look, the four nine has controlled that 911 00:51:56.719 --> 00:51:59.639 game the whole game in the rams, never chance, like 912 00:51:59.719 --> 00:52:03.760 I was on the rams. So I'm bemoaning my own 913 00:52:03.800 --> 00:52:06.480 loss or at your greatymnon loss. That's fun. I was 914 00:52:06.559 --> 00:52:09.039 on the rams. You were on the rams. But they 915 00:52:09.119 --> 00:52:12.400 didn't deserve They certainly didn't deserve to and they didn't. 916 00:52:13.320 --> 00:52:14.840 And it was under a minute. I looked it up. 917 00:52:14.880 --> 00:52:16.400 It was under a minute when he fumbled the ball, 918 00:52:16.519 --> 00:52:19.519 so technically still alive. 919 00:52:20.119 --> 00:52:23.039 But you know, they still had a chance to win 920 00:52:23.079 --> 00:52:23.719 it in overtime. 921 00:52:25.679 --> 00:52:28.119 I'm not I'm not talking about overtime. I someing before that. 922 00:52:28.280 --> 00:52:31.119 So that's that's fine. Yeah, in this game, it's just 923 00:52:31.400 --> 00:52:33.440 I don't know, I don't know that Tampa Bay hasn't 924 00:52:33.440 --> 00:52:35.079 proved that they can win with margin. I love them, 925 00:52:35.119 --> 00:52:37.480 They're they're a super Bowl pick to go to the 926 00:52:37.519 --> 00:52:40.760 super Bowl in the NFC. But you know, the the 927 00:52:40.880 --> 00:52:43.519 moxy of this San Francisco team, it's hard to ignore. 928 00:52:43.599 --> 00:52:46.320 And you're getting three points, you're getting some players back. 929 00:52:46.559 --> 00:52:49.199 We'll see how many, but they are getting some back, 930 00:52:50.559 --> 00:52:53.320 and I don't know, man, just this it feels this 931 00:52:53.519 --> 00:52:56.480 just feels too trappy, Like I mean, it feels like, hey, 932 00:52:56.960 --> 00:52:59.719 I mean, you're getting Tampa. They're they're four and one. 933 00:52:59.800 --> 00:53:02.440 They but they've they've you know, they they should be 934 00:53:02.519 --> 00:53:04.480 the better team at home. But I don't like it. 935 00:53:04.599 --> 00:53:06.800 I think the values on San fran here, give me 936 00:53:06.920 --> 00:53:10.119 the three. You know, is it juice either way? Is 937 00:53:10.480 --> 00:53:12.639 this number gonna move? Is this gonna be just locked 938 00:53:12.679 --> 00:53:13.920 in at three all the way to Sunday? 939 00:53:14.559 --> 00:53:16.800 No, it's going on to three. So you didn't get 940 00:53:16.800 --> 00:53:17.280 the three now? 941 00:53:17.599 --> 00:53:20.159 Yeah, So get the three now and and you know what, 942 00:53:20.239 --> 00:53:23.280 two and a half you can I would probably feel 943 00:53:23.320 --> 00:53:24.880 much better at two. There's a lot. There's a lot 944 00:53:24.920 --> 00:53:26.760 of games to land on two, a lot more land 945 00:53:26.840 --> 00:53:29.519 on two than than previously with with the with the 946 00:53:29.559 --> 00:53:31.519 two point con versions of the missed extra points and 947 00:53:31.559 --> 00:53:34.840 all the bullshit that happened. So you know, once again, 948 00:53:34.880 --> 00:53:36.400 if it gets down to two, you can talk me 949 00:53:36.440 --> 00:53:38.920 into some Tampa Bay. But about at three, I gotta 950 00:53:38.960 --> 00:53:39.719 go San fran. 951 00:53:41.280 --> 00:53:44.400 All right. So I know it's like we've been disagreeing 952 00:53:44.400 --> 00:53:46.800 a lot on this podcast, Espe. Actually we've been agreeing, 953 00:53:46.880 --> 00:53:50.800 but just aggressively. Uh powery grave for me on the 954 00:53:50.920 --> 00:53:54.800 snow called bucket, San Francisco beat San Francisco, Sy Francisco. 955 00:53:55.719 --> 00:53:58.679 I've got San Francisco winning this game twenty five to 956 00:53:58.960 --> 00:54:01.519 twenty two, so that will be had. No call on 957 00:54:01.559 --> 00:54:05.559 the overrunner. It's forty seven and a half. Now, the 958 00:54:05.599 --> 00:54:09.119 Special Team's great does have a great hunder. Sorry, I'm 959 00:54:09.159 --> 00:54:13.079 gonna stop mentioning that because I don't want to. I 960 00:54:13.159 --> 00:54:15.039 don't want to see miscontrued things. And this is my 961 00:54:15.159 --> 00:54:18.280 first week pulling this in. So overall, twenty five to 962 00:54:18.280 --> 00:54:20.719 twenty two, no call on the Overrunner. Forty seven and 963 00:54:20.719 --> 00:54:23.599 a half. Now, this is a very bad matchup for Baker. 964 00:54:23.719 --> 00:54:29.679 He loses two points through the BPG for our friends 965 00:54:30.840 --> 00:54:31.800 what's the go Right's name? 966 00:54:33.039 --> 00:54:35.880 Mac Jones, Mac Jones, he is half. 967 00:54:35.719 --> 00:54:37.920 A point, so not a great matchup with him. It's 968 00:54:37.920 --> 00:54:39.800 also not a great matchup for the running and they 969 00:54:39.840 --> 00:54:42.440 both lose half a point. So again that Bore leans 970 00:54:42.519 --> 00:54:44.559 to the hunder. But again I've got a granted as 971 00:54:44.599 --> 00:54:47.159 a no call. Here's my ride up on this. I 972 00:54:47.280 --> 00:54:48.760 did a little bit of deep devil this because I 973 00:54:48.840 --> 00:54:52.519 was very interested in this game, just because I do 974 00:54:52.679 --> 00:54:55.920 have Tampa Bay going to the NFC Championship as well. 975 00:54:56.159 --> 00:54:59.480 And I was like, okay, but I went back through 976 00:54:59.519 --> 00:55:01.920 my preseas righteous and I said, they have a good 977 00:55:02.039 --> 00:55:06.599 chance of being two and four right through the first 978 00:55:06.639 --> 00:55:10.679 six weeks and then going on a fucking run and 979 00:55:10.800 --> 00:55:14.960 winning this division, the shitty division, and ending up in 980 00:55:15.039 --> 00:55:17.400 the NFC Championshi games. It's like, okay, how are they 981 00:55:18.400 --> 00:55:20.960 so far above my expectations through the roughest part of 982 00:55:21.000 --> 00:55:25.199 their schedule. So I did a deep though. Tampa Bay 983 00:55:25.440 --> 00:55:30.360 is seventeenth in DVOA, they're twenty second and offensive success 984 00:55:30.480 --> 00:55:35.400 rate twenty second in defensive successory, So translation, they're a 985 00:55:35.480 --> 00:55:39.360 slightly bloy average see by the advanced patricks. Now, they've 986 00:55:39.400 --> 00:55:41.599 gotten very lucky. They won a lot of games with 987 00:55:41.639 --> 00:55:44.119 the buzzer. Actually every game they won has been at 988 00:55:44.119 --> 00:55:48.960 the buzzer. But how long can that continue. San Fran 989 00:55:49.239 --> 00:55:52.440 on the COMPARI side, is fifth in offensive success rate 990 00:55:52.519 --> 00:55:54.599 even without their fucking quarterback for most of the season. 991 00:55:55.320 --> 00:55:59.000 Now they're twenty fourth and defensive success right, so that's 992 00:55:59.079 --> 00:56:05.519 not good fifteenth and DVA overall. So basically, overall, you 993 00:56:05.599 --> 00:56:08.119 got an above average team that has dealt with a 994 00:56:08.159 --> 00:56:11.000 significant amount of injuries themselves as well, just like has 995 00:56:11.280 --> 00:56:17.480 Tampa Bay. So but in fairness to both teams, they 996 00:56:17.480 --> 00:56:21.280 have played a very difficult schedule. Tampa Bay fifth hardest 997 00:56:21.400 --> 00:56:24.800 so far per DVA. San Francisco, who was supposed to 998 00:56:24.880 --> 00:56:27.840 have the easiest fucking schedule in history of the world, 999 00:56:28.559 --> 00:56:32.679 has had the seventh hardest so far through DVA. So 1000 00:56:32.920 --> 00:56:36.000 all in all, we have a comparable schedule of opponents, 1001 00:56:36.440 --> 00:56:40.079 and San Francisco is better in the analytics overall with 1002 00:56:40.239 --> 00:56:44.440 two different fucking quarterbacks, and now we're getting three points 1003 00:56:46.719 --> 00:56:49.360 like that means the line is off enough here to 1004 00:56:49.519 --> 00:56:52.440 get us on San Fran. I expect this to be 1005 00:56:52.480 --> 00:56:56.119 a good game, come down to the end, and maybe 1006 00:56:56.199 --> 00:56:58.480 for once it doesn't work out for Baker and the boys. 1007 00:56:58.880 --> 00:57:01.480 I'm with you, Sam Fran. There's no other way I'm 1008 00:57:01.480 --> 00:57:03.840 gonna play it. It's gonna be Sam fran or fucking 1009 00:57:03.920 --> 00:57:07.960 nothing for me. I look, I fear for our Tampa 1010 00:57:08.000 --> 00:57:10.679 Bay pick just because this team has not been very 1011 00:57:10.760 --> 00:57:14.639 good so far. But again, they've played a very as 1012 00:57:14.719 --> 00:57:18.559 we as we predicted in the preseason, they played a very, 1013 00:57:18.719 --> 00:57:21.400 very tough schedule. What we didn't predict was they were 1014 00:57:21.440 --> 00:57:26.079 gonna win every goddamn Quinn flip. So does that carry 1015 00:57:26.119 --> 00:57:27.880 them through all the way to the end of the season, 1016 00:57:28.039 --> 00:57:30.719 They obviously can. We've seen that many many times. We 1017 00:57:30.800 --> 00:57:34.320 saw it with Minnesota last year they were fourteen whatever 1018 00:57:34.519 --> 00:57:37.880 fucking three. They've been every fucking coin flip and then 1019 00:57:37.920 --> 00:57:39.840 they get beat out as soon as they fucking face 1020 00:57:39.880 --> 00:57:42.079 a real team. I don't think that happens with Baker, 1021 00:57:42.800 --> 00:57:46.119 so I think we're still alive with our overall pick. However, 1022 00:57:46.679 --> 00:57:48.039 we've gotten very fortunate. 1023 00:57:47.800 --> 00:57:51.800 With They've dealt with massive venders in there four and one, 1024 00:57:51.880 --> 00:57:54.679 like they're gonna get s fran So a San France. 1025 00:57:54.800 --> 00:57:57.559 I know, and they've gotten very but they're not a 1026 00:57:57.599 --> 00:57:59.599 good football team. They're not a good football. 1027 00:57:59.280 --> 00:58:03.280 Team because they're not a good football team on paper 1028 00:58:03.440 --> 00:58:06.119 or on on the metrics. But that's because of what 1029 00:58:06.159 --> 00:58:08.239 they're dealing with but when it comes to winning the 1030 00:58:08.320 --> 00:58:13.559 football game, they're still winning despite not be not yeah 1031 00:58:13.639 --> 00:58:15.519 so so, Like I mean, remember. 1032 00:58:15.719 --> 00:58:17.639 We're aggressively arguing at the same point. 1033 00:58:17.960 --> 00:58:21.199 I know the same but the point of football is 1034 00:58:21.360 --> 00:58:24.079 winning the game. And you cannot look good necessarily on 1035 00:58:24.199 --> 00:58:27.119 paper at certain times and because you're dealing with injuries 1036 00:58:27.559 --> 00:58:29.039 and but but. 1037 00:58:29.119 --> 00:58:32.599 Eventually those metrics we've seen, they do catch up to you, 1038 00:58:32.800 --> 00:58:35.960 and they like Preacher preach last year. I mean, I 1039 00:58:36.000 --> 00:58:38.360 pretty appreciate preach every year when you get to the 1040 00:58:38.400 --> 00:58:42.440 playoff time, these faux ass fucking playoff teams like they're 1041 00:58:42.480 --> 00:58:45.480 not any good. They suck all year, they suck at 1042 00:58:45.480 --> 00:58:48.280 all these measures. They're gonna fucking lose. Sure enough, they 1043 00:58:48.400 --> 00:58:50.760 go and get their doors blown off. For now, I'm 1044 00:58:50.760 --> 00:58:54.239 not saying this about Tampa Bay specifically, I'm just saying 1045 00:58:54.280 --> 00:58:56.840 in general, yeah, but everybody. 1046 00:58:56.880 --> 00:58:59.400 But that's like picking who you're gonna pick to win 1047 00:58:59.480 --> 00:59:01.719 the Super Bowl. This is just picking like are they 1048 00:59:01.760 --> 00:59:03.119 going to be good the rest of the year? And 1049 00:59:03.400 --> 00:59:05.840 I mean, I don't see how anybody could think they're 1050 00:59:05.840 --> 00:59:07.239 not gonna be good the rest of the year, because 1051 00:59:07.280 --> 00:59:09.400 they're gonna get healthier and they're already winning. 1052 00:59:10.760 --> 00:59:13.079 Yeah, but I mean they gotta continue, like they gotta 1053 00:59:13.079 --> 00:59:15.679 get healthier or continue to get lucky. One of the two, 1054 00:59:15.880 --> 00:59:17.920 like one of those two things has to fuck. 1055 00:59:19.920 --> 00:59:20.159 Yeah. 1056 00:59:20.960 --> 00:59:22.760 So but but but they if they want to be 1057 00:59:22.800 --> 00:59:24.320 in a serious content, if they want to get to 1058 00:59:24.400 --> 00:59:27.719 where you and I both judge them to be, they've 1059 00:59:27.760 --> 00:59:29.639 got to get better because they're they're not a good 1060 00:59:29.679 --> 00:59:32.000 football team right now, so they have to get better 1061 00:59:32.760 --> 00:59:37.199 as they get healthier, or else they're wanted done in 1062 00:59:37.280 --> 00:59:37.840 the playoffs. 1063 00:59:39.119 --> 00:59:41.639 All right, all right, let's move on to. 1064 00:59:48.960 --> 00:59:55.159 Believe, including me, he's saying that. 1065 00:59:55.280 --> 00:59:58.480 He's saying he likes to Jacksonville Jaguars. You couldn't hear 1066 00:59:58.519 --> 01:00:00.599 any of that because his microphone is can now, but 1067 01:00:00.920 --> 01:00:02.039 he likes Jacksonville. 1068 01:00:02.920 --> 01:00:07.320 Yeah no, none of you, none of you gave my 1069 01:00:07.559 --> 01:00:11.320 Jacksonville Jay Wards a chance, including myself. That's not that's 1070 01:00:11.360 --> 01:00:16.199 not relevant right now. But you know what, they're awesome, 1071 01:00:16.599 --> 01:00:20.599 So everybody can suck it, including me. But right now 1072 01:00:21.760 --> 01:00:26.639 they're hosting those Seattle's Theehawks. Okay, on this long run, 1073 01:00:26.760 --> 01:00:35.119 I had Seattle minus one. Vegas had Seattle plus one 1074 01:00:35.159 --> 01:00:41.760 and a half. So this game world opener was Seattle 1075 01:00:41.800 --> 01:00:44.360 minus one. It is now Jacksonville minus one half. So 1076 01:00:44.519 --> 01:00:48.840 Vegas beat me from the world opener to the fucking 1077 01:00:48.960 --> 01:00:50.880 actual marketplace. What are you on this one? 1078 01:00:52.199 --> 01:00:54.639 Yeah? On this one? So always has been a major 1079 01:00:54.840 --> 01:00:57.800 upgrade with Jacksonville from from what we've seen this year. 1080 01:00:58.079 --> 01:01:01.559 You just can't ignore what's happened. And I've talked about 1081 01:01:01.679 --> 01:01:04.400 for at least one podcast now that I don't think 1082 01:01:04.440 --> 01:01:10.559 we've seen the ceiling for this Jacksonville Jaguars team is 1083 01:01:10.639 --> 01:01:16.079 the root just because t l is is and the receivers, 1084 01:01:16.519 --> 01:01:19.679 they're not playing as good as at least most people 1085 01:01:19.800 --> 01:01:22.079 think that they will. We've seen Brian Thomas be much better. 1086 01:01:22.320 --> 01:01:25.440 We've even we've even seen Trevor Lawrence be much better 1087 01:01:25.480 --> 01:01:28.039 than he is right now. As far as Travis Hunter goes, and. 1088 01:01:28.159 --> 01:01:32.000 Sir, did you see the double fall down? Like what 1089 01:01:32.360 --> 01:01:35.760 better play? What do you want to do? He failed 1090 01:01:35.880 --> 01:01:41.760 down twice and scored the touchdown? Like I mean you know, 1091 01:01:41.880 --> 01:01:45.119 I mean he literally gave them every chance in the world. 1092 01:01:45.199 --> 01:01:47.639 Is like, can you stab me? No? We fall out again? 1093 01:01:47.760 --> 01:01:50.159 He's still something No, Oh, well, I guess I gonna 1094 01:01:50.159 --> 01:01:52.920 score Like he's literally like he's just toying with people. 1095 01:01:52.960 --> 01:01:54.760 He's toying with people. 1096 01:01:55.679 --> 01:01:59.639 He's uh, he's not way no, he's not. 1097 01:02:00.039 --> 01:02:04.039 Bullelong worn shout out to my bollylong worn. Fucking if you, 1098 01:02:04.440 --> 01:02:07.360 If you boys and girls are not watching the Sunday. 1099 01:02:07.639 --> 01:02:11.000 Morning Sunday Morning Parlor Parlay. 1100 01:02:10.960 --> 01:02:13.719 You fucking need to be because this dude he put 1101 01:02:13.760 --> 01:02:17.639 out the Redskins and the Jaguars with that paid six 1102 01:02:17.679 --> 01:02:18.119 and a half. 1103 01:02:18.000 --> 01:02:20.599 To one, five and a half to one, five and 1104 01:02:20.679 --> 01:02:22.880 a half to one. Money line parlay is. 1105 01:02:23.360 --> 01:02:28.039 Free motherfucking money on YouTube. He didn't charge you. He 1106 01:02:28.079 --> 01:02:31.159 didn't say, hey, signer for my fucking premium picks now. 1107 01:02:31.679 --> 01:02:34.840 He gave it out for fucking free, five and a 1108 01:02:34.960 --> 01:02:37.800 half to one on your fucking money. So shame on 1109 01:02:37.920 --> 01:02:39.599 you if you're not watching, Shame on you if you're 1110 01:02:39.639 --> 01:02:40.159 not listening. 1111 01:02:40.519 --> 01:02:42.639 I just thought about it flash forward. I don't know 1112 01:02:42.760 --> 01:02:45.920 how it's gonna be tough finding some dogs this week, 1113 01:02:45.960 --> 01:02:48.679 but I'll i'll, I'll throw something out and maybe half 1114 01:02:48.800 --> 01:02:50.280 Union or something. I don't because I don't like this 1115 01:02:50.360 --> 01:02:54.559 week for the dogs. But with that said, Jacksonville, I'm 1116 01:02:54.599 --> 01:02:57.239 reluctantly going back to them, and I only say reluctantly 1117 01:02:57.320 --> 01:03:00.280 because I have priors on Seattle that I like them 1118 01:03:00.320 --> 01:03:02.719 so much. But but much like some of these other teams, 1119 01:03:03.280 --> 01:03:06.840 this ain't. This ain't the Seattle team that was lining 1120 01:03:07.000 --> 01:03:09.000 up to play football in Week one. They're dealing with 1121 01:03:09.159 --> 01:03:11.960 massive injuries, specifically on the defensive side. We'll see if 1122 01:03:12.039 --> 01:03:14.440 Julian Love can come back. We'll see if Devin Witherspoon 1123 01:03:14.519 --> 01:03:17.360 can come back. I haven't heard for sure on that. 1124 01:03:17.480 --> 01:03:19.280 I don't know which way that's leaning right now. But 1125 01:03:20.000 --> 01:03:23.639 without those two their best players and their secondary, like 1126 01:03:23.920 --> 01:03:25.559 I mean, I'm gonna have to I have to still 1127 01:03:25.679 --> 01:03:28.440 lean on Jacksonville here. To just win a game at 1128 01:03:28.480 --> 01:03:31.079 home feels so wrong. I don't even like that I'm 1129 01:03:31.119 --> 01:03:34.599 saying it. But I like Seattle going across the country 1130 01:03:35.639 --> 01:03:37.679 Jackson I mean, jackson Will coming off there like that, 1131 01:03:37.840 --> 01:03:40.480 a primetime win like that, that is so like, give 1132 01:03:40.599 --> 01:03:43.719 me the other team. But I just and maybe I'll 1133 01:03:43.760 --> 01:03:48.159 regret this when we do the money recap. That's probably 1134 01:03:48.320 --> 01:03:51.280 probably what I'll be saying, because like, why do I 1135 01:03:51.519 --> 01:03:54.400 like Jacksonville here? Like this should be a spot for Seattle, 1136 01:03:54.480 --> 01:03:58.360 but I just don't. I just don't trust that defense 1137 01:03:58.679 --> 01:04:01.559 until they get healthy and their running game of defense 1138 01:04:01.760 --> 01:04:05.360 is the glue to what's gonna make this Seattle team go. 1139 01:04:05.760 --> 01:04:09.400 So I don't know, I just had to pick them, 1140 01:04:10.199 --> 01:04:12.719 you know, I guess give me give me Jacksonville at home, 1141 01:04:12.760 --> 01:04:15.159 because again, like I don't I seriously we have not 1142 01:04:15.320 --> 01:04:18.320 seen like, oh my god, great game from t L, 1143 01:04:18.639 --> 01:04:21.159 Like if that happens and he just starts lighting people 1144 01:04:21.280 --> 01:04:23.599 up in you know, in his own way and this 1145 01:04:23.760 --> 01:04:27.199 and with two amazing defensive players out in the secondary 1146 01:04:27.239 --> 01:04:29.880 for Seattle, in theory, this should be a game where 1147 01:04:29.880 --> 01:04:32.519 he can do it because they've got they you know, 1148 01:04:32.559 --> 01:04:35.280 the running game is good with et N. They they 1149 01:04:35.360 --> 01:04:37.320 got some good things going and the defense has just 1150 01:04:37.400 --> 01:04:39.320 been awesome taking the ball away. So I don't know, 1151 01:04:39.599 --> 01:04:41.360 maybe I'm stepping into it a little bit and I'm 1152 01:04:41.400 --> 01:04:43.679 just not seeing it clearly on this game, but I'm 1153 01:04:43.760 --> 01:04:44.920 kind of leaning to Jacksonville. 1154 01:04:46.760 --> 01:04:51.360 I've never been well, I've been more frustrated, but I 1155 01:04:51.519 --> 01:04:56.119 was very frustrated I against City three Javille, and I 1156 01:04:56.199 --> 01:05:00.639 gave up the full handicap and PA said, oh, they 1157 01:05:00.960 --> 01:05:03.639 suck against the run, but they're awesome against this one concept. 1158 01:05:04.239 --> 01:05:06.599 And but ETN doesn't get to run. This one concept's 1159 01:05:06.599 --> 01:05:09.119 supposed to runs Jacksonville's never won, blah blah, blah blah, 1160 01:05:09.599 --> 01:05:13.320 And guess what happened. They didn't fucking get the one concept. 1161 01:05:13.760 --> 01:05:17.280 They didn't fucking get the one fucking run. They never 1162 01:05:17.599 --> 01:05:21.079 fucking got exactly what I said. I said, Mahomes should 1163 01:05:21.079 --> 01:05:24.920 be mahomes. It should be good. The kan'ta says the 1164 01:05:25.039 --> 01:05:28.760 fourteen to fucking nothing, and then all of a sudden 1165 01:05:29.039 --> 01:05:33.599 everything went to fucking hell. And I don't know it's 1166 01:05:34.239 --> 01:05:37.360 I was so fucking frustrated, but it's such a proper 1167 01:05:37.480 --> 01:05:42.960 handicap to take a loss on. That's one. That's one 1168 01:05:42.960 --> 01:05:44.559 of those. But it's one of those things that it's 1169 01:05:44.760 --> 01:05:47.840 maddening but also keeps you doing this because it's so 1170 01:05:48.199 --> 01:05:52.440 like this thing is so much more art than science. 1171 01:05:53.079 --> 01:05:55.199 And even though you have all the science. I said, 1172 01:05:55.280 --> 01:05:57.960 ETN is not getting the supposed to run. Didn't said 1173 01:05:58.000 --> 01:06:00.920 mahomes is gonna be mahomes. He will us said the 1174 01:06:00.960 --> 01:06:03.280 fuck It wasn't gonna be a great game for Trevor Lawrence. 1175 01:06:03.400 --> 01:06:03.880 It wasn't. 1176 01:06:04.960 --> 01:06:07.639 And I still fucking lose, like I still fucking lose. 1177 01:06:07.719 --> 01:06:12.119 Like it's so maddening and the most maddening thing to me, Longhorn, 1178 01:06:12.159 --> 01:06:16.039 about this whole thing, as you and I had many 1179 01:06:16.119 --> 01:06:21.400 discussions preseason on the podcast and off the podcast, because 1180 01:06:21.480 --> 01:06:27.719 we were just so perplexed by all the sharp money 1181 01:06:28.639 --> 01:06:32.679 that came in on fucking Jacksonville and their over wind 1182 01:06:32.760 --> 01:06:36.920 told them that pushed up a full win from where 1183 01:06:36.920 --> 01:06:39.960 it opened, and we were like, what the fun We've said, 1184 01:06:40.039 --> 01:06:42.440 We said it on air, we said to each other, 1185 01:06:42.760 --> 01:06:45.840 we said it in our sleep, probably like what the fuck? 1186 01:06:46.599 --> 01:06:47.159 What are it? 1187 01:06:47.360 --> 01:06:50.360 What is anybody looking at that makes you think that 1188 01:06:50.480 --> 01:06:54.480 this Jacksonville team is gonna go win eight fucking games, 1189 01:06:54.519 --> 01:06:56.639 which is where our predict him to win. But it 1190 01:06:56.760 --> 01:07:01.159 only did that because that's what the marker was saying. 1191 01:07:01.199 --> 01:07:03.239 But I didn't. But I didn't bet the under, which 1192 01:07:03.280 --> 01:07:05.000 is what my number center should have fucking did, but 1193 01:07:05.079 --> 01:07:08.960 I didn't do it. And now here we are, they're 1194 01:07:09.000 --> 01:07:13.920 sitting here at what fucking for four and fucking. 1195 01:07:13.960 --> 01:07:17.639 Four and one for one as also. 1196 01:07:19.000 --> 01:07:22.440 Okay, So here's where I'm at with this game, though, 1197 01:07:23.440 --> 01:07:27.239 Power Ragan Seattle bucket, Seattle B two, Seattle B two, 1198 01:07:27.280 --> 01:07:31.079 Seattle forty six and a half is setting the under. 1199 01:07:31.159 --> 01:07:33.440 I've got Seattle wins game twenty four to twenty one. 1200 01:07:33.679 --> 01:07:37.760 That's the under. I won't mention the special teams again. Sorry, 1201 01:07:39.159 --> 01:07:41.119 this is not gonna be a good game for Trevor Lawrence. 1202 01:07:42.199 --> 01:07:44.880 He struggles through the BBG for the system. This should 1203 01:07:44.880 --> 01:07:48.960 be a very good game for Sammy d gains a point. 1204 01:07:49.440 --> 01:07:52.800 Both running games s great out flat here. So basically, 1205 01:07:54.280 --> 01:08:00.079 if you can stroll the running game for Jacksonville, you 1206 01:08:00.119 --> 01:08:03.000 should win. I said that last week. Now it didn't 1207 01:08:03.039 --> 01:08:06.480 work out for me obviously, However, I think the love 1208 01:08:07.079 --> 01:08:14.840 like the look aheadline on this before Jacksonville beat Kansas 1209 01:08:14.880 --> 01:08:16.920 City was Seattle minus one and a half, which is 1210 01:08:17.000 --> 01:08:22.840 exactly what I had preseason. It literally flips on that 1211 01:08:23.039 --> 01:08:27.279 win to Jacksonville minus one half. Now, can you tell 1212 01:08:27.359 --> 01:08:31.640 me that that win was worth three points in the market. 1213 01:08:32.680 --> 01:08:35.319 I don't think so. I don't think so. I think 1214 01:08:35.359 --> 01:08:38.479 Seattle's aside here. I think you're right that you're you're 1215 01:08:39.439 --> 01:08:43.880 your spotty senses of stepping in it, right. I think 1216 01:08:43.920 --> 01:08:47.239 it's Seattle's a sign. I think this is I think 1217 01:08:47.399 --> 01:08:50.159 that Seattle goes and gets this win. Look, Jacksonville, Look, 1218 01:08:50.880 --> 01:08:54.119 Jacksonville is not this longhorn. You can correct me if 1219 01:08:54.119 --> 01:09:01.039 I'm wrong. Yes, you we talked about this thing. You 1220 01:09:01.119 --> 01:09:04.600 talked about the roster. It's trash and the only the 1221 01:09:04.720 --> 01:09:08.119 only we said, the only saving grace could be is 1222 01:09:08.199 --> 01:09:12.319 if this coach can make Trevor Lawrence look like fucking Baker. 1223 01:09:12.760 --> 01:09:16.399 Has he made them look like Baker? No felled out 1224 01:09:16.600 --> 01:09:19.279 twice to fucking running a touchdown? 1225 01:09:20.680 --> 01:09:23.640 That's but that's why, that's why I don't know that 1226 01:09:23.840 --> 01:09:26.560 I may. I mean, I think there could be better 1227 01:09:26.760 --> 01:09:31.479 than what even Vegas thought they would be, because we 1228 01:09:31.640 --> 01:09:34.600 all thought they were gonna be Like, No, they're better 1229 01:09:34.640 --> 01:09:36.600 than what we thought would be. But Vegas had them 1230 01:09:36.600 --> 01:09:38.239 a little bit better than what we thought. But the 1231 01:09:38.640 --> 01:09:41.079 but the factor that I can guarantee you that Vegas 1232 01:09:41.279 --> 01:09:45.520 was was counting on was Lawrence being being raised up 1233 01:09:45.600 --> 01:09:48.720 to play to the level that he hasn't. That's my point. 1234 01:09:48.920 --> 01:09:52.359 That's if it starts, if it happens, though, if it. 1235 01:09:52.520 --> 01:09:55.800 Clicks in, isn't gonna happen versus the Seattle defense. I mean, 1236 01:09:55.840 --> 01:09:58.439 my number is gonna have a bad game. 1237 01:09:58.520 --> 01:10:01.640 Which Seattle defense the one that's good when they're healthy, 1238 01:10:01.800 --> 01:10:03.760 or the one that gets let up on their mind? 1239 01:10:03.920 --> 01:10:08.560 I mean my mind ratings are like they got priors 1240 01:10:08.560 --> 01:10:10.840 in there, of course, but they also have week by 1241 01:10:10.920 --> 01:10:13.960 week built into what they've been doing, and they still 1242 01:10:14.039 --> 01:10:18.760 haven't greayed out not good versus even so, I don't know. 1243 01:10:18.800 --> 01:10:23.119 I can't, I can't, I can't. Fucking I won't have it. 1244 01:10:23.199 --> 01:10:25.399 I won't have any action on this game, So it's 1245 01:10:25.399 --> 01:10:25.960 only I. 1246 01:10:26.000 --> 01:10:28.680 Probably will I probably will have Seattle maybe on the 1247 01:10:28.760 --> 01:10:33.039 money line. I just can't get I cannot get past 1248 01:10:33.119 --> 01:10:36.520 my priors this much to think that I was laying 1249 01:10:36.560 --> 01:10:38.960 one and a half and the look ahead was one 1250 01:10:38.960 --> 01:10:41.279 and a half and now I'm fucking getting one and 1251 01:10:41.279 --> 01:10:44.479 a half. Like we went three points. We went three 1252 01:10:44.560 --> 01:10:48.720 points on one win, which Jacksonville very much got lucky 1253 01:10:49.039 --> 01:10:51.840 to do. I mean, fucking Patrick Mahomess is a ninety 1254 01:10:51.920 --> 01:10:57.920 nine yard pick six, Like, I mean, they got so fucking. 1255 01:10:57.720 --> 01:11:00.720 Lucky to win that game and they leave the league 1256 01:11:00.720 --> 01:11:02.600 in turnover. So yeah, there's definitely a lot of luck 1257 01:11:02.680 --> 01:11:02.840 in that. 1258 01:11:03.199 --> 01:11:05.239 There's a lot of luck. There's a lot of luck. 1259 01:11:06.600 --> 01:11:09.800 So but but we've also seen that continue throughout an 1260 01:11:09.920 --> 01:11:14.680 entire season, right and then we've seen it. Yeah, it 1261 01:11:14.760 --> 01:11:17.720 won't miss to turn this year. Now next year, they're fucked, 1262 01:11:17.920 --> 01:11:21.479 of course, and the pedicular theorem will say that they're 1263 01:11:21.479 --> 01:11:24.319 definitely fucked next year. But will it turn this year, 1264 01:11:24.359 --> 01:11:26.760 will turn this week? That's hard to predict. You can't say, 1265 01:11:26.800 --> 01:11:31.239 But I mean handicapping wise numbers wise, there's no chance 1266 01:11:31.319 --> 01:11:33.640 I cannot be on the seem there's no chance. 1267 01:11:34.680 --> 01:11:39.000 All right, let's lost banks. 1268 01:11:39.479 --> 01:11:45.760 Ranks hosting those ten seeds titles, all right? Preseason on 1269 01:11:45.800 --> 01:11:49.640 this one, I had the Raiders minus four. Uh Vegas 1270 01:11:49.680 --> 01:11:56.119 had a minus three. We're sitting at minus four, So 1271 01:11:56.399 --> 01:12:00.159 I know that one. So that would say Longhorn, that 1272 01:12:00.319 --> 01:12:02.439 these teams are exactly what I thought they would be 1273 01:12:04.880 --> 01:12:06.399 the preseason. So what are you on this? 1274 01:12:07.800 --> 01:12:10.239 Yeah, like I said last week, do you think I'm 1275 01:12:10.319 --> 01:12:14.880 changing after a stupid, bullshit, worst fucking bad beat of 1276 01:12:15.119 --> 01:12:19.479 all time? No, same thing with Tennessee. That coach sucks. 1277 01:12:19.560 --> 01:12:22.840 He made a million mistakes in that game. I can't 1278 01:12:22.840 --> 01:12:25.239 even believe that he celebrated that win like I'd have 1279 01:12:25.279 --> 01:12:30.960 felt like such a fraud. But yeah, same thing. You 1280 01:12:31.119 --> 01:12:34.600 can't bet on Tennessee. He is awful. This is the 1281 01:12:34.680 --> 01:12:37.399 one of the biggest coaching mismatches. We talked about that 1282 01:12:37.439 --> 01:12:40.520 earlier in the game earlier, this this on this slate. 1283 01:12:40.840 --> 01:12:44.279 This is another one, and it's a really good coaching 1284 01:12:44.279 --> 01:12:48.119 Pete Carroll that's desperate, desperate, desperate for a win. They're 1285 01:12:48.199 --> 01:12:49.960 not as bad as their record. They're won in four. 1286 01:12:50.479 --> 01:12:53.279 They're just not that bad. Ginos fucked them. He's fucked 1287 01:12:53.319 --> 01:12:57.000 Pete Carroll, really really bad. But the whole team sucks 1288 01:12:57.039 --> 01:12:59.399 for Tennessee like that. I shouldn't even say that because 1289 01:12:59.399 --> 01:13:03.279 the rosters actually better than their outcome. But the but 1290 01:13:03.399 --> 01:13:07.279 the quarterbacks are rookie, and the and the coach is incompetent. 1291 01:13:07.560 --> 01:13:11.920 He's not bad, He's not just bad. He's incompetent. He 1292 01:13:12.000 --> 01:13:13.680 should not be a head coach. 1293 01:13:14.039 --> 01:13:18.039 I actually do have a clip of Geno Smith talking 1294 01:13:18.199 --> 01:13:23.039 to I'm sorry, Peachure of talking to Geno Smith, uh 1295 01:13:23.560 --> 01:13:24.399 after the last game. 1296 01:13:24.479 --> 01:13:28.840 Hang, yes, I need bitch, I need for you to 1297 01:13:28.920 --> 01:13:30.000 do your fucking job. 1298 01:13:31.359 --> 01:13:35.239 That's exactly what he said, Jensen, do your fucking jump. 1299 01:13:38.680 --> 01:13:41.359 Yeah. And if he does his job and just plays normal, 1300 01:13:41.800 --> 01:13:43.720 just plays normal, they get the running and going, they're 1301 01:13:43.720 --> 01:13:45.960 gonna win this game by fourteen points plus. I would 1302 01:13:46.000 --> 01:13:48.319 even look into an ault line on this, like this 1303 01:13:48.479 --> 01:13:50.720 is going to be this would be. This is gonna 1304 01:13:50.720 --> 01:13:53.239 be an ass whipping, ass fucking whipping. I'm all over 1305 01:13:53.319 --> 01:13:54.279 the Vegas Raiders here. 1306 01:13:55.159 --> 01:13:58.199 I love it. Powering bass now calling the buckets, now 1307 01:13:58.319 --> 01:14:03.560 calling me too, Tennessee D two. Uh so, forty one 1308 01:14:03.600 --> 01:14:05.760 and a half to the under, I've got this. I 1309 01:14:05.800 --> 01:14:08.319 got Las Vegas win. This is twenty four to sixteen. 1310 01:14:08.920 --> 01:14:11.039 You said forty one to nothing. Is that what you said? 1311 01:14:11.479 --> 01:14:13.000 Forty one and a half is the under? 1312 01:14:13.680 --> 01:14:15.960 I think you said forty one to nothing Vegas. That's 1313 01:14:16.000 --> 01:14:17.880 what I heard, twenty. 1314 01:14:17.640 --> 01:14:20.600 Four to sixteen Vegas. That would cover and that would 1315 01:14:20.640 --> 01:14:23.399 go under. I like Vegas, like the under. It's a 1316 01:14:23.479 --> 01:14:28.039 flat matchup for both with both quarterbacks. But fucking cam 1317 01:14:28.079 --> 01:14:30.840 Warre and Rays that's so fucking bad. It's a flat 1318 01:14:30.920 --> 01:14:33.479 matchup for both running games. There is no really specific 1319 01:14:33.560 --> 01:14:35.720 advengeance in this game. It's just one team that's better 1320 01:14:35.720 --> 01:14:38.920 than the other, and they're better than four points. It's 1321 01:14:39.159 --> 01:14:43.560 it's a market down grade in Vegas one percent and 1322 01:14:43.880 --> 01:14:47.840 a little bit of marketing upgrade off Tennessee. Like you said, 1323 01:14:47.920 --> 01:14:52.000 getting a fucking miracle win. That will like, we won't 1324 01:14:52.039 --> 01:14:54.520 see a win like that again until at least this week. 1325 01:14:55.359 --> 01:14:59.039 In this fucking rigged ass league until somebody else needs 1326 01:14:59.079 --> 01:15:05.159 their fucking until Baltimore beats the Rams for everybody's fucking survivor, 1327 01:15:05.720 --> 01:15:09.600 we won't see another brig Gas win like that. But yeah, 1328 01:15:09.720 --> 01:15:14.880 it's fucking Raiders. Another one here, guys, we wells Green 1329 01:15:15.359 --> 01:15:20.720 Bay Packets all they're coming off the boy hosting those 1330 01:15:21.199 --> 01:15:24.479 sen Sinnati Bengals. I will not go over the preseason 1331 01:15:24.560 --> 01:15:29.439 lines here because that obviously doesn't matter, and we have 1332 01:15:29.760 --> 01:15:34.920 a new quarterback. Boys and girls, it is Joe motherfucking Flacco. 1333 01:15:35.399 --> 01:15:36.319 They're actually doing it. 1334 01:15:36.960 --> 01:15:41.960 They're actually doing it. They traded for him, they're starting him. 1335 01:15:42.119 --> 01:15:42.720 You're doing it. 1336 01:15:43.439 --> 01:15:46.720 This is fourteen points to fourteen and a half points, 1337 01:15:46.880 --> 01:15:51.920 fourteen points juice, let's call it fourteen point two five whatever. 1338 01:15:52.520 --> 01:15:55.000 It's the Packers coming off the Bay versus Legles. We 1339 01:15:55.119 --> 01:15:55.600 got a long one. 1340 01:15:56.920 --> 01:15:59.439 Well, I mean, I'm not in the business of laying 1341 01:15:59.560 --> 01:16:02.560 fourteen points, fourteen plus points whatever it's gonna be. But 1342 01:16:02.960 --> 01:16:06.640 I mean, how do you what are we doing? We're Cincinnati? 1343 01:16:06.760 --> 01:16:09.960 What you are the I mean, there's a lot bad 1344 01:16:11.520 --> 01:16:14.239 I just I love them because they're just so easily 1345 01:16:15.239 --> 01:16:17.720 predictable that they're just awful, like you are just an 1346 01:16:17.760 --> 01:16:21.760 awful franchise. First of all, Joe Burrow held this team 1347 01:16:21.840 --> 01:16:26.079 together because he can move, and he can create, and 1348 01:16:26.239 --> 01:16:30.840 he can fix your shitty fucking techmobile built offense of 1349 01:16:31.319 --> 01:16:33.840 just get all the best receivers and a good quarterback 1350 01:16:34.039 --> 01:16:36.760 and who cares what else you have. Flaco's a statue 1351 01:16:37.479 --> 01:16:40.239 that ain't gonna work here. It is not And Browning 1352 01:16:40.439 --> 01:16:42.840 Brownie is not good either. He can also move around 1353 01:16:42.880 --> 01:16:46.800 a little bit and create. He can at least move 1354 01:16:46.960 --> 01:16:51.039 around and create. Flacco is going to and you're probably 1355 01:16:51.079 --> 01:16:53.439 gonna see Browning by in this game. You're probably gonna 1356 01:16:53.439 --> 01:16:55.560 see Brian. So maybe you get a backdoor cover because 1357 01:16:55.560 --> 01:16:57.119 Brian's gonna come in and start slinging it and move 1358 01:16:57.119 --> 01:17:02.680 around making play, gonna come in and when they're down 1359 01:17:03.199 --> 01:17:06.319 thirty to three, Like this is just gonna be awful. 1360 01:17:06.520 --> 01:17:08.720 I just I don't know what again? We got the 1361 01:17:08.800 --> 01:17:13.399 we got the is this the yeah? The weird trade situation, 1362 01:17:13.760 --> 01:17:15.399 not not the flack of one but the other one 1363 01:17:15.479 --> 01:17:20.960 with with oh god, who's the am I getting mixed 1364 01:17:21.000 --> 01:17:21.760 up on my trays here? 1365 01:17:21.920 --> 01:17:22.119 Yeah? 1366 01:17:22.159 --> 01:17:24.720 They trade? Okay? Sorry, So this one is just the 1367 01:17:24.800 --> 01:17:27.720 flak of one. But regardless, if this is a mess 1368 01:17:28.279 --> 01:17:31.119 green Bay coming off a bye, didn't they lose? Did 1369 01:17:31.119 --> 01:17:32.319 they lose the last game they played? 1370 01:17:32.760 --> 01:17:33.000 Lost? 1371 01:17:33.800 --> 01:17:38.520 Yeah, exactly, so, so I mean, just oh sorry, they 1372 01:17:38.680 --> 01:17:40.880 kissed their sister and got a tie on that one 1373 01:17:42.680 --> 01:17:44.760 and that and actually that's that's so they're on a 1374 01:17:44.880 --> 01:17:50.119 loss tie trend. So they want to win. They have had, 1375 01:17:50.199 --> 01:17:52.279 they have a celebrated winning three weeks, and they got 1376 01:17:52.359 --> 01:17:55.520 this this chum coming into town. Like I mean, this 1377 01:17:55.680 --> 01:17:58.039 is like Penry ears back. Go get this forty year 1378 01:17:58.079 --> 01:18:02.279 old statue that won't move of good luck, good luck Cincinnati. 1379 01:18:03.039 --> 01:18:06.960 But I will say this rare opportunity that a quarterback 1380 01:18:07.800 --> 01:18:11.199 gets to play the same team twice in the first 1381 01:18:11.279 --> 01:18:14.560 six weeks. Flaco played this team earlier for Cleveland, now 1382 01:18:14.600 --> 01:18:18.279 he plays them again. I'm here with Cincinnati, so it's 1383 01:18:18.399 --> 01:18:21.000 we're we're in We're in upside down world here in 1384 01:18:21.000 --> 01:18:22.119 the NFL in Week six. 1385 01:18:22.239 --> 01:18:25.800 I guess, all right, so this is the second half 1386 01:18:26.119 --> 01:18:34.720 of the dud. No long fucking whatever the nerd wow. 1387 01:18:34.680 --> 01:18:37.600 Sign Nerd, get out go. I ain't got time to 1388 01:18:37.640 --> 01:18:41.920 be distracted by your worthless chime man is gone, all. 1389 01:18:41.840 --> 01:18:47.000 Right, So home favorites coming off the bar since twenty 1390 01:18:47.159 --> 01:18:51.319 eighteen twenty nine forty two and three ats minus one 1391 01:18:51.399 --> 01:18:55.800 point community communitatily forty percent of the line of six 1392 01:18:55.880 --> 01:18:58.199 and a half. I did pull the numbers. If you 1393 01:18:58.319 --> 01:19:03.960 were favorite of fourteen or I think it was ten 1394 01:19:04.000 --> 01:19:08.600 to fourteen whatever, the teasers on that were at eighty 1395 01:19:08.720 --> 01:19:11.159 seven percent, So we got eighty seve percent plus eighty 1396 01:19:11.199 --> 01:19:14.399 three percent. All that abeles out to like sixty nine 1397 01:19:14.479 --> 01:19:17.359 percent fucking winning. That is gonna close out on a 1398 01:19:17.399 --> 01:19:19.479 six and a half point fortune and a half to 1399 01:19:19.560 --> 01:19:24.159 twenty one on the Bengals. So we got the Raider 1400 01:19:24.439 --> 01:19:27.840 or the Ravens plus fourteen since he fourteen and a 1401 01:19:27.880 --> 01:19:31.079 half since he plus twenty one, and that is gonna 1402 01:19:31.319 --> 01:19:37.000 include our do No Wong teaser the week again, the 1403 01:19:37.760 --> 01:19:41.479 do Wongs teasers. You know, you gotta win, like you know, 1404 01:19:41.600 --> 01:19:45.319 fifty six percent even win, I'm giving you at sixty 1405 01:19:45.359 --> 01:19:49.640 eight percent, sixty nine percent. Guaranteed money, baby, just guarantee money. 1406 01:19:50.119 --> 01:19:53.640 Just do it all right, Moving on to those new 1407 01:19:54.079 --> 01:19:57.600 all in saintsan, I am very interested to see Lorn's 1408 01:19:57.600 --> 01:20:03.640 handicap on this versus those New England Patriots. All right, preseason. 1409 01:20:03.760 --> 01:20:09.439 On this I had New England minus one. Vegas had 1410 01:20:09.479 --> 01:20:16.560 New England minus three. It is sitting at let's see 1411 01:20:18.880 --> 01:20:24.960 this fucking game, mate, Sorry for freshman screen. Here in 1412 01:20:25.279 --> 01:20:27.439 New Orleans, we're sitting at three and a half. So 1413 01:20:27.560 --> 01:20:30.079 Vegas vive me on this one. I was a little 1414 01:20:30.119 --> 01:20:32.680 bit down to the Patriots, no doubts. It is juice 1415 01:20:32.680 --> 01:20:34.159 at three and a half, though, So let's go it 1416 01:20:34.239 --> 01:20:36.520 three point two five long WM, what do you on 1417 01:20:36.640 --> 01:20:36.960 this one? 1418 01:20:37.880 --> 01:20:41.760 Yeah, I'm definitely definitely on New Orleans in this game. Well, 1419 01:20:42.119 --> 01:20:44.000 at least I put it out to clients. I'll go 1420 01:20:44.000 --> 01:20:45.520 ahead and announce that I put this on the clients 1421 01:20:45.560 --> 01:20:47.439 because the line is move is down to three? Was 1422 01:20:47.479 --> 01:20:48.239 it three and a half? 1423 01:20:49.319 --> 01:20:50.239 Still playing three half? 1424 01:20:50.920 --> 01:20:54.880 Yeah, so grab grab me if you can. People want look, 1425 01:20:55.239 --> 01:20:57.479 it's it's the age old story. And I know New 1426 01:20:57.520 --> 01:21:00.760 Orleans is coming off a win two, so you can 1427 01:21:00.880 --> 01:21:03.680 use that against me. But they know they're not they 1428 01:21:03.800 --> 01:21:07.079 know they're not a good or great team. They know 1429 01:21:07.159 --> 01:21:10.600 they're not really going anywhere this year. So getting a 1430 01:21:10.840 --> 01:21:14.279 win it's, you know whatever, it's not gonna make or 1431 01:21:14.319 --> 01:21:20.760 break their years very much, not very much needs a butt. 1432 01:21:20.800 --> 01:21:24.239 Here's the deal. New England has aspirations they were preseason 1433 01:21:24.840 --> 01:21:30.359 darlings to kind of make that run to the playoffs. Yeah, 1434 01:21:30.560 --> 01:21:34.279 and they're looking like they might make it. But it's 1435 01:21:34.319 --> 01:21:36.399 all they gotta do is go to New Orkans. All 1436 01:21:36.439 --> 01:21:37.840 they gotta do is go to New Orleans and win 1437 01:21:37.920 --> 01:21:39.960 a game against the shitty New Orleans Saints that I 1438 01:21:40.079 --> 01:21:42.840 was gonna put up a fight like they do against everybody. 1439 01:21:43.079 --> 01:21:46.359 So at three and a half, I like them. Like 1440 01:21:46.439 --> 01:21:49.000 I said, New England coming off that that primetime win 1441 01:21:49.239 --> 01:21:51.880 against their rival Buffalo is a perfect letdown spar for 1442 01:21:51.960 --> 01:21:56.319 them and the New Orleans offensive line. It doesn't look 1443 01:21:56.359 --> 01:21:58.359 as good as I was hoping. But I will say this, 1444 01:21:58.840 --> 01:22:01.159 it's trending up. For the numbers they had at the 1445 01:22:01.199 --> 01:22:04.359 beginning of the year on p f F rankings horrible, horrible, horrible, 1446 01:22:05.000 --> 01:22:08.640 it's subtly getting better actually to where three or four 1447 01:22:08.680 --> 01:22:11.680 of them are in kind of like that that mid 1448 01:22:11.800 --> 01:22:15.520 range of acceptable starter level, way better than what they 1449 01:22:15.560 --> 01:22:18.399 were previously this year, and certainly what they're better than 1450 01:22:18.399 --> 01:22:20.600 what they were last year. So and then, and the 1451 01:22:20.720 --> 01:22:23.000 defense for New Ons is looking really good, you know, 1452 01:22:23.439 --> 01:22:26.239 relatively good as they can look with with a team 1453 01:22:26.319 --> 01:22:30.079 that's won one game so far. So I just like 1454 01:22:30.159 --> 01:22:32.199 the lead. I just like the leadown spot. You know, 1455 01:22:32.359 --> 01:22:36.840 Drake May Drake May is is he's played his ass 1456 01:22:36.880 --> 01:22:41.520 off this year, but this is this is a road game, and. 1457 01:22:41.600 --> 01:22:43.680 I'm trying to tell you that it was better than 1458 01:22:43.720 --> 01:22:45.359 what said last. 1459 01:22:45.239 --> 01:22:51.600 Year Drake May. Yeah, yeah, I liked him too coming 1460 01:22:51.680 --> 01:22:58.119 out before. I was like, no, well we said the 1461 01:22:58.199 --> 01:23:00.239 same thing that he was, that he showed lot of 1462 01:23:00.319 --> 01:23:03.840 moxy and and and won some games, and that he 1463 01:23:04.039 --> 01:23:06.800 looked better than he should. So it's but I don't know, 1464 01:23:06.920 --> 01:23:08.760 it's this is a neurorons spot to me. I mean, 1465 01:23:08.800 --> 01:23:11.119 they could get their doors blown sure, and if they do, 1466 01:23:11.319 --> 01:23:14.640 then then New Orleans and then New England's definitely on 1467 01:23:14.800 --> 01:23:16.760 their way to blow past that eight and a half. 1468 01:23:17.119 --> 01:23:18.800 They just are like, if they come out here and 1469 01:23:18.840 --> 01:23:20.479 just blow the doors off off a bad team on 1470 01:23:20.560 --> 01:23:23.279 the road, then they're actually really good. Not really good, 1471 01:23:23.319 --> 01:23:24.279 They're they're a good team. 1472 01:23:24.640 --> 01:23:28.000 This game predicalar to win. And I still protected under 1473 01:23:28.039 --> 01:23:28.479 eight and half. 1474 01:23:28.600 --> 01:23:31.640 Like, okay, I said, I said blow their doors off. 1475 01:23:36.319 --> 01:23:38.800 Well I bet you didn't have them foreign too. If 1476 01:23:38.840 --> 01:23:42.760 you were picking the under eight and half Buffalo exactly. 1477 01:23:42.920 --> 01:23:46.600 So like a good team off a great win like 1478 01:23:46.680 --> 01:23:50.359 that against Buffalo Drags ass next week that they played 1479 01:23:50.439 --> 01:23:52.520 down and and so we'll see, we'll see kind of 1480 01:23:52.560 --> 01:23:56.560 And I'm I'm good team, so that's what I'm saying. Yeah, 1481 01:23:56.680 --> 01:23:58.600 so we agree. I think the Saints are going to 1482 01:23:58.640 --> 01:24:01.199 be live dogs here and and and one to three 1483 01:24:01.199 --> 01:24:04.800 and a half. And and I wouldn't break my heart 1484 01:24:04.800 --> 01:24:07.920 if the Saints win because because the under, the under 1485 01:24:08.000 --> 01:24:09.279 five and a half of the Saints, I think is 1486 01:24:09.680 --> 01:24:13.079 still looking really solid. Yeah, so so we I mean, yeah, 1487 01:24:13.119 --> 01:24:14.920 we could. We could take a Saints win here for sure. 1488 01:24:15.199 --> 01:24:17.840 We need a Saints win for sure. All right, Now, 1489 01:24:17.880 --> 01:24:20.479 the powery is not New England here, like I said, 1490 01:24:20.520 --> 01:24:22.920 because I had this about two points different. But the 1491 01:24:22.960 --> 01:24:26.039 buckets New England B two New England or sorry buckets 1492 01:24:26.039 --> 01:24:28.159 New Orleans B two New Orleans D two New Orleans. 1493 01:24:29.159 --> 01:24:32.279 The BBG has New Orleans winning this game, winning this 1494 01:24:32.439 --> 01:24:36.439 game twenty four to twenty two, which would be no 1495 01:24:36.680 --> 01:24:38.720 coal on the over runner because it's forty five and 1496 01:24:38.760 --> 01:24:41.159 a half, so it's right on the front on the number. Now, 1497 01:24:41.239 --> 01:24:44.439 I do expect both quarterbacks to play decently here. They 1498 01:24:44.479 --> 01:24:47.359 both gain half a point of the BBG. The problem 1499 01:24:47.680 --> 01:24:51.640 here's what bothers me though, as the New Orleans loses 1500 01:24:51.720 --> 01:24:54.119 half a point of the BBG and New England gains 1501 01:24:54.159 --> 01:24:57.439 a point the BBG on the running game, I don't 1502 01:24:57.640 --> 01:25:04.680 like that. Now. I'll say this with I'll just put 1503 01:25:04.760 --> 01:25:06.119 this in. I don't want to put this in with 1504 01:25:06.159 --> 01:25:08.159 the owner, but for the special teams part of it, 1505 01:25:08.960 --> 01:25:11.600 it does have New England winning twenty three to twenty. 1506 01:25:11.880 --> 01:25:14.720 So with three and a half, we're still good with 1507 01:25:14.880 --> 01:25:19.640 New Orleans. The New Orleans has been horrific, fucking horrific 1508 01:25:20.399 --> 01:25:22.720 with their special teams, and New England's been pretty solid. 1509 01:25:23.640 --> 01:25:27.039 But either way, I like New Orleans to cover this game. 1510 01:25:27.560 --> 01:25:29.359 If the buckets say the same, I will be on 1511 01:25:29.439 --> 01:25:32.279 the Saints. I will be with you one. I would 1512 01:25:32.319 --> 01:25:34.039 not bet New England. I'm not laying three and a 1513 01:25:34.079 --> 01:25:36.600 half fucking points with Drake May on the fucking road 1514 01:25:36.680 --> 01:25:39.640 against fucking error and go fuck yourself. I'm not doing it. 1515 01:25:40.239 --> 01:25:42.399 So and I know the saying. I just fucking said 1516 01:25:42.439 --> 01:25:47.079 the Saints could literally go oh to seventeen and they 1517 01:25:47.159 --> 01:25:51.039 literally put them so now they're not gonna obviously, because 1518 01:25:51.039 --> 01:25:54.479 they won a game. But there's nothing say that they 1519 01:25:54.520 --> 01:25:57.760 couldn't have and there's nothing say that they can't beat 1520 01:25:57.800 --> 01:26:00.960 the fucking Patriots, who this is not a win that 1521 01:26:01.039 --> 01:26:03.840 I had the Patriots fucking having. So it was this 1522 01:26:03.960 --> 01:26:05.880 is one of those fifty bitty coin flip games where 1523 01:26:05.880 --> 01:26:09.359 you have to split the binomial and give them both 1524 01:26:09.479 --> 01:26:12.079 fifty percent and then projected out from there. And that's 1525 01:26:12.159 --> 01:26:15.000 literally what I did on both these teams. Now, the 1526 01:26:15.079 --> 01:26:19.159 Buffalo fucking win for Nework. For the Buffalo, the win 1527 01:26:19.399 --> 01:26:22.960 against Buffalo and Buffalo is the only thing fucking mean 1528 01:26:23.239 --> 01:26:27.119 right now on our New England under because that is 1529 01:26:27.239 --> 01:26:31.159 one not a game that I did not project them 1530 01:26:31.199 --> 01:26:34.520 to win. Everything else that they've done this season, we're 1531 01:26:35.000 --> 01:26:37.840 coin flipment. I had them losing to Las Vegas Week one. 1532 01:26:37.880 --> 01:26:41.960 I bet that they did blah blah blah. So we're 1533 01:26:42.039 --> 01:26:44.880 fine except that game. So now I need this game 1534 01:26:45.119 --> 01:26:47.560 to go to New Orleans to get us back on 1535 01:26:47.640 --> 01:26:48.119 the schedule. 1536 01:26:48.319 --> 01:26:51.039 That's all they got. I don't know if you've seen 1537 01:26:51.079 --> 01:26:53.399 their stretch of games, it's like all the worst teams 1538 01:26:53.439 --> 01:26:56.520 in NFL, starting with New Orleans. It's that they had. 1539 01:26:56.560 --> 01:26:58.680 They're gonna have to They're gonna have to drop one 1540 01:26:58.720 --> 01:27:01.039 of these games. They should, They're supposed to win, for sure. 1541 01:27:01.600 --> 01:27:04.439 Yeah, so I like them to drop this game in 1542 01:27:04.560 --> 01:27:07.600 New Orleans. Like you said, the only reason. 1543 01:27:07.359 --> 01:27:08.680 I didn't do it, the only reason I didn't do 1544 01:27:08.720 --> 01:27:10.800 a big Day Peg or danger Zone is simply because 1545 01:27:10.840 --> 01:27:12.640 New Orleans was coming off that win. I mean, like, 1546 01:27:12.880 --> 01:27:15.399 let's not get crazy. They are a bad team. They're 1547 01:27:15.399 --> 01:27:16.640 gonna go on a winning streak, got it. 1548 01:27:16.720 --> 01:27:18.359 Yeah, They're one of the worst season that it felt 1549 01:27:18.439 --> 01:27:18.760 for sure. 1550 01:27:18.840 --> 01:27:19.039 Yeah. 1551 01:27:19.159 --> 01:27:21.600 At the same time, New England was not a great 1552 01:27:21.680 --> 01:27:24.960 team and they did just have the win of the season. 1553 01:27:25.199 --> 01:27:27.479 I know that was that was that was the tug 1554 01:27:27.520 --> 01:27:29.199 of war I was having. So I just, I just 1555 01:27:29.319 --> 01:27:30.479 I don't feel great about. 1556 01:27:30.319 --> 01:27:33.079 I'm not saying I'm like, oh, fucking give me three units. No, 1557 01:27:33.439 --> 01:27:35.920 but like, yeah, there's no there's no other way about this. 1558 01:27:35.960 --> 01:27:37.399 When New Orleans supposed to three and a half. 1559 01:27:37.640 --> 01:27:40.680 I'm with you, all right, all right, let's move on 1560 01:27:40.840 --> 01:27:42.680 to the game of. 1561 01:27:42.880 --> 01:27:46.119 The fucking weekend. I usually tease this and I'm usually 1562 01:27:46.279 --> 01:27:49.800 just fucking with you, but I'm serious. I'm serious this time. 1563 01:27:50.359 --> 01:27:55.960 It's those Cans, the City Chiefs hosting those Detroit Lions. 1564 01:27:56.239 --> 01:27:59.079 Now on this one in the preseason, I had to 1565 01:27:59.159 --> 01:28:02.000 go back and look at this. I had Kansas City 1566 01:28:02.079 --> 01:28:07.239 Mona su Vegas at Kansasity minus three. We're sitting at 1567 01:28:07.399 --> 01:28:15.000 Live now, I think it uh two, So you know 1568 01:28:15.560 --> 01:28:19.960 above us a little bit high on that, I think right. 1569 01:28:20.399 --> 01:28:25.800 Uh no, I'm sorry, I was fat on in Vegas 1570 01:28:25.880 --> 01:28:28.960 a little bit high on this one. So this is 1571 01:28:29.039 --> 01:28:32.600 exactly where I had it Longhorn going into the preseason, 1572 01:28:33.520 --> 01:28:37.399 which means the marketplace now agrees that I was right 1573 01:28:38.479 --> 01:28:40.039 five weeks later. So what do you got? 1574 01:28:40.560 --> 01:28:43.079 Yeah, which is weird because Detroit's four and one in 1575 01:28:43.279 --> 01:28:46.079 Kansas City's two and three. This is the trappiest of trap. 1576 01:28:46.720 --> 01:28:50.760 Doesn't smell right, doesn't look right? Why is this? Why 1577 01:28:50.960 --> 01:28:54.359 is Why is Kansas City favor? Why? And why is 1578 01:28:54.399 --> 01:28:56.600 it favored by two points? Or whatever's lunch in and that? 1579 01:28:56.760 --> 01:29:00.399 Like why that makes no sense. I'm not taking the bait. 1580 01:29:01.000 --> 01:29:04.199 Give me mahomes, give me like like they want you 1581 01:29:04.279 --> 01:29:06.600 to take Detroit. And and we've talked about earlier, like 1582 01:29:06.680 --> 01:29:12.760 Detroit is a cover machine. Vegas knows that literally, Vegas 1583 01:29:12.880 --> 01:29:15.119 knows that Vegas pays out on Detroit. 1584 01:29:15.159 --> 01:29:18.039 All that time, but Vegas added minus three and I 1585 01:29:18.119 --> 01:29:20.319 had at minus two and now we're still at minus two. 1586 01:29:20.520 --> 01:29:20.800 So like. 1587 01:29:22.439 --> 01:29:27.920 Vegas has just adjusted to where my pre projections were 1588 01:29:28.560 --> 01:29:29.199 the preseason. 1589 01:29:29.319 --> 01:29:32.079 Preseason has nothing to do with what what the records 1590 01:29:32.119 --> 01:29:34.199 are now and what the line should be now. 1591 01:29:34.920 --> 01:29:37.439 I know, but that just goes to how accurate my 1592 01:29:38.800 --> 01:29:39.159 who's the. 1593 01:29:39.199 --> 01:29:41.720 Better team here based on what you've seen so far 1594 01:29:41.800 --> 01:29:45.159 this year, not not preseason? Who's the better team clearly? 1595 01:29:45.239 --> 01:29:50.279 Detroit Detroit clearly clearly. So it just so why why 1596 01:29:50.399 --> 01:29:51.119 is this not pick them? 1597 01:29:53.199 --> 01:29:55.279 Uh? Well, I'll get into that in a second. 1598 01:29:55.680 --> 01:29:58.720 Okay, So basically my handicap is I'm not taking the bait. 1599 01:29:59.279 --> 01:30:01.680 Uh And then you also have the Mahomes factor. Anytime 1600 01:30:01.760 --> 01:30:05.079 he's a favorite under three or a dog, that's a 1601 01:30:05.159 --> 01:30:08.560 money spot for him. Twenty nine to twelve. Ats just 1602 01:30:09.239 --> 01:30:13.279 you know, I'm even scared. I mean, I'm going to 1603 01:30:13.319 --> 01:30:15.600 take Detroit teased up just because it's the perfect spot 1604 01:30:15.640 --> 01:30:18.680 and there's not a whole lot to really offer this week. 1605 01:30:19.279 --> 01:30:21.920 But that's dude, this line scared of the shit of me. Like, 1606 01:30:22.199 --> 01:30:24.760 I need some explanation on why this game isn't pick them. 1607 01:30:25.079 --> 01:30:28.840 Maybe it ends up there and that's fine, and so 1608 01:30:28.960 --> 01:30:31.720 maybe you can wait and if you say it's going 1609 01:30:31.880 --> 01:30:34.920 then wait, don't take Kansas City last two. Wait till 1610 01:30:34.920 --> 01:30:36.840 it gets down to one and a half one maybe, 1611 01:30:36.920 --> 01:30:38.720 and we'll see where it lands at. But yeah, I'm 1612 01:30:38.720 --> 01:30:41.279 gonna be on Kansas City here. I'm gonna be on Mahomes. 1613 01:30:41.520 --> 01:30:43.600 They lost the game last week that we we all 1614 01:30:43.720 --> 01:30:46.079 saw it as very fortunate. Glad I hit the money 1615 01:30:46.119 --> 01:30:50.000 line parlay Kenessey should have won that game. So they 1616 01:30:50.079 --> 01:30:53.119 needed They're desperate for a win, and you got Mahomes 1617 01:30:53.439 --> 01:30:56.960 at home needing a win. I don't know. Give me 1618 01:30:57.079 --> 01:30:57.640 Kansas City. 1619 01:30:59.439 --> 01:31:02.199 On the lines, ninety money on the lines. 1620 01:31:04.439 --> 01:31:08.279 Take take that, take that bait, and Vegas is like, yep, 1621 01:31:08.359 --> 01:31:09.800 come and get it, Come and get it, come and 1622 01:31:09.840 --> 01:31:12.399 get it. I'm not doing it, okay. 1623 01:31:12.840 --> 01:31:15.399 So here's why I'm with us. Power Grant is only 1624 01:31:15.439 --> 01:31:19.680 Detroit Buggets throwing Detroit V two. Detroit D two's local. 1625 01:31:20.600 --> 01:31:23.760 I've got Detroit winning this game twenty twenty six to 1626 01:31:23.840 --> 01:31:28.720 twenty three. That's under the fifty two. You know, anytime 1627 01:31:28.720 --> 01:31:32.399 of these juggernunt offenses play each other, I'm very has 1628 01:31:32.479 --> 01:31:35.600 that to trust my numbers on that because I know 1629 01:31:35.680 --> 01:31:38.680 how these games go with these great quarterbacks that you 1630 01:31:38.760 --> 01:31:44.199 know when you really need a score. Here's the thing 1631 01:31:44.279 --> 01:31:47.640 that has me leaning with you though, with Kansas City, 1632 01:31:48.119 --> 01:31:50.319 this is a good match for mames. I've said for 1633 01:31:50.439 --> 01:31:52.920 two weeks in a row, my homes should be my homes. 1634 01:31:53.399 --> 01:31:56.760 It's another good matchup for homesby homes. The plus one 1635 01:31:56.840 --> 01:32:02.520 to the BVG Jared Goff's minus one the BPG uh 1636 01:32:02.800 --> 01:32:05.439 Kansas City flat with a running game Detroit love is 1637 01:32:05.560 --> 01:32:08.640 half a point the VPG to the running game. Now. 1638 01:32:08.680 --> 01:32:11.159 The only reason why it's greating out for Detroit to 1639 01:32:11.279 --> 01:32:15.760 win this game, it's simply because Detroit offense. I mean, dude, 1640 01:32:15.800 --> 01:32:19.600 if you don't know their numbers right now, they are 1641 01:32:19.720 --> 01:32:22.840 on pace to be the greatest offense that this league 1642 01:32:22.880 --> 01:32:26.520 has ever seen through fucking five weeks like they are 1643 01:32:26.600 --> 01:32:28.840 on pace to score more points to be the fucking 1644 01:32:28.920 --> 01:32:31.000 highest score like they are. 1645 01:32:32.880 --> 01:32:34.880 Schedule has been pretty weak though so far. 1646 01:32:36.000 --> 01:32:40.119 I can pull that off. But they are so far 1647 01:32:40.279 --> 01:32:42.880 they are on pace. I'll pull it up to be 1648 01:32:43.039 --> 01:32:47.560 the greatest offense we've ever seen. So that's the reason 1649 01:32:47.640 --> 01:32:54.359 why now it's easy to say that, yeah, it's pastion, 1650 01:32:54.399 --> 01:32:58.319 mahomes whatever, blah blah blah. But there is something broken 1651 01:32:58.399 --> 01:33:01.560 about like because that And I'm not saying I shouldn't 1652 01:33:01.560 --> 01:33:06.279 covered or whatever. It's fine, but there is something that 1653 01:33:07.279 --> 01:33:11.720 And we'll look at their schedule so far so Detroit 1654 01:33:13.279 --> 01:33:21.680 has said the third easiest schedule, third easiest schedule in 1655 01:33:21.800 --> 01:33:28.520 the entire league so far overall. So that's something to 1656 01:33:28.560 --> 01:33:32.279 say too so and that so that means that maybe 1657 01:33:32.479 --> 01:33:38.680 the buckets are more right then numbers. We'll see, But 1658 01:33:38.840 --> 01:33:43.079 there is something about the Kansasity team this year. That 1659 01:33:43.359 --> 01:33:47.079 Jacksonville game is what's giving me pause. That's not a 1660 01:33:47.199 --> 01:33:50.880 game that they lose, not saying they can't lose that game, 1661 01:33:50.960 --> 01:33:53.119 but in the in the manner that they're playing, they're 1662 01:33:53.159 --> 01:33:56.439 up fourteen to nothing, they blow the lead. Sure we've 1663 01:33:56.439 --> 01:33:58.840 seen Kansas City do that a million times blah blah blah. 1664 01:34:00.000 --> 01:34:05.159 But they go score the should be gaming and touchdown. Right, 1665 01:34:06.239 --> 01:34:10.760 it's a minute or whatever left. They're up by four, 1666 01:34:10.840 --> 01:34:12.880 so the other team needs to score touchdown. They kick 1667 01:34:12.920 --> 01:34:16.279 the ball out of bounds, which is an egregious error 1668 01:34:16.439 --> 01:34:20.520 for a team, a championship team, championship coaching, championship kicker, 1669 01:34:20.520 --> 01:34:23.960 blah blah blah, bah blah, and then they'd let that 1670 01:34:24.239 --> 01:34:27.359 drive happen. They let the kid fall down twice and 1671 01:34:27.520 --> 01:34:31.239 still score and beat them at home or sorry out 1672 01:34:31.239 --> 01:34:34.399 they're on the road, but still score, fall down twice 1673 01:34:34.560 --> 01:34:38.159 and still score and beat them. Those are not the 1674 01:34:38.319 --> 01:34:43.439 games that we've seen Kansas City lose, right, that we 1675 01:34:43.560 --> 01:34:46.520 see Kansas lose when they've getten, they just get beat. 1676 01:34:46.840 --> 01:34:49.039 They get beat and you're gonna have them down about 1677 01:34:49.079 --> 01:34:51.840 two scorers and all the referee bullshit and fuckery and 1678 01:34:51.840 --> 01:34:53.960 blah blah blah blah blah. But we've all come know 1679 01:34:54.159 --> 01:34:56.960 and love, all that goes out the window. 1680 01:34:57.239 --> 01:34:59.159 I just think it's very I think it was just 1681 01:34:59.800 --> 01:35:03.439 the they win those games ninety something percent of the time, 1682 01:35:03.479 --> 01:35:04.920 and it was just this was the one that came 1683 01:35:05.000 --> 01:35:05.600 up the other way. 1684 01:35:05.920 --> 01:35:06.199 I know. 1685 01:35:06.359 --> 01:35:08.920 But dude, to have that happen when they're already have 1686 01:35:09.079 --> 01:35:10.880 a losing record, like if they were six and oh 1687 01:35:10.960 --> 01:35:14.840 when that happened, or five and oh when that happened. Okay, whatever, 1688 01:35:15.439 --> 01:35:18.600 they got unlucky the rest in bellbut they. 1689 01:35:18.640 --> 01:35:21.199 Kind of got unlucky. They kind of got unlucky on 1690 01:35:21.279 --> 01:35:24.479 that last drive by Jacksonville too. Like I mean, just 1691 01:35:25.399 --> 01:35:27.920 it just it didn't start right like it like they 1692 01:35:28.000 --> 01:35:30.840 burned like a minute and got like ten yards like Jackson. 1693 01:35:31.039 --> 01:35:33.600 It didn't start right. But then Trevor Lawrence threw literally 1694 01:35:34.000 --> 01:35:39.640 to the best throws ever seen ever. He through the 1695 01:35:39.720 --> 01:35:41.680 dome over the top, and then he threw the bullet 1696 01:35:42.199 --> 01:35:46.039 to the outside. Yeah, and that, Yes, I saw a 1697 01:35:46.079 --> 01:35:47.600 great sweet about it. I was like we got the 1698 01:35:47.720 --> 01:35:53.520 full Trevor Lawrence experiences. You saw him, dude throw a 1699 01:35:53.960 --> 01:35:59.119 handful of piss rockets, have a handful of zero IQ plays. 1700 01:35:59.520 --> 01:36:03.000 Right and then fall down and fall down twice and. 1701 01:36:03.039 --> 01:36:06.000 Win the fight. Like is the full TREVORL. Lawrence experience. 1702 01:36:06.239 --> 01:36:08.600 So doesn't that tell you that like this that one 1703 01:36:08.720 --> 01:36:11.520 was just like setting the stars that you're not winning. 1704 01:36:11.960 --> 01:36:14.000 It would have been. It would have been if they 1705 01:36:14.079 --> 01:36:16.479 weren't already two and four or whatever. 1706 01:36:17.520 --> 01:36:19.560 Two and three at the time and three of time. 1707 01:36:19.880 --> 01:36:21.960 If they did not live in the record, it would 1708 01:36:22.039 --> 01:36:25.239 have it would have been if they would have been, 1709 01:36:26.039 --> 01:36:26.680 you know whatever. 1710 01:36:27.439 --> 01:36:32.640 They have zero injuries right now, like like now the 1711 01:36:32.760 --> 01:36:35.199 chiefs are that they were dealing with injury at the 1712 01:36:35.199 --> 01:36:38.119 beginning of the year. Zero they don't, I mean they 1713 01:36:38.199 --> 01:36:40.399 got Rashid Rice. Obviously he's not injured, so he won't 1714 01:36:40.439 --> 01:36:41.159 be back on the next week. 1715 01:36:41.199 --> 01:36:43.319 But like, and they're gonna be able to score the ball. 1716 01:36:44.760 --> 01:36:50.960 Like I don't know, my numbers agree with you, the 1717 01:36:51.039 --> 01:36:53.239 bug disagree with you. I can't say that I'm not 1718 01:36:53.319 --> 01:36:55.479 gonna be with you on my bet. But it scares 1719 01:36:55.520 --> 01:36:59.319 the ship out of me because oh no, sorry, my 1720 01:36:59.399 --> 01:37:03.319 numbers are bugs. Forgets you. It does scary because in 1721 01:37:03.439 --> 01:37:07.359 the homes. But again, there's something that it's almost like 1722 01:37:07.479 --> 01:37:15.600 that fucking that's whatever that I remember watching the Yankees, 1723 01:37:15.680 --> 01:37:17.680 like in the fucking late nineties orders two thousands, like 1724 01:37:17.960 --> 01:37:20.800 you just knew something was gonna happen. The Yank's gonna win. 1725 01:37:21.359 --> 01:37:24.680 It's almost like that Shineess gone off Kansas City after 1726 01:37:24.760 --> 01:37:29.000 that ditical game, because after that game, I was like, Okay, 1727 01:37:29.039 --> 01:37:32.079 if you can't win this game, if you can't win 1728 01:37:32.159 --> 01:37:34.319 this game, I know everything happened. You threw the pick 1729 01:37:34.399 --> 01:37:36.079 sacks of the fucking one yard of blah blah blah 1730 01:37:36.159 --> 01:37:36.680 fucking blah. 1731 01:37:37.239 --> 01:37:40.279 They kind of did. They kind of did what they 1732 01:37:40.279 --> 01:37:43.760 always did. They drove down, they got to kill shot, they. 1733 01:37:43.760 --> 01:37:46.399 Just but but then they lost and they don't ever 1734 01:37:46.600 --> 01:37:50.399 lose that. I don't ever lose that game. And then 1735 01:37:51.479 --> 01:37:53.359 and if you think Jery Golf is gonna fall down 1736 01:37:53.439 --> 01:37:55.600 twice in the New yor one, he's not gonna do that. 1737 01:37:56.119 --> 01:38:00.000 If he does, he hanging. No, yeah, he's not getting 1738 01:38:00.000 --> 01:38:01.000 I'm running for touchdowns. 1739 01:38:01.199 --> 01:38:04.239 And this is outside on grass, so that the greatest 1740 01:38:04.279 --> 01:38:09.199 show on turf is probably not gonna be as last year. 1741 01:38:09.239 --> 01:38:10.680 And beat them week one. 1742 01:38:10.680 --> 01:38:12.840 If you remember, but that wasn't It wasn't a high 1743 01:38:12.880 --> 01:38:13.399 scoring game. 1744 01:38:14.199 --> 01:38:16.239 No, I mean, I've got it great to the under. 1745 01:38:16.720 --> 01:38:20.359 I've got it twenty six, twenty three, So that's the 1746 01:38:20.479 --> 01:38:22.239 underd of fifty two. I don't I don't expect to 1747 01:38:22.319 --> 01:38:24.319 go over. I like the eer there more than anything, 1748 01:38:25.319 --> 01:38:29.520 but I mean, I don't know. Well, it's it's gonna 1749 01:38:29.520 --> 01:38:30.600 be it's gonna be great. 1750 01:38:31.079 --> 01:38:34.840 That sounds right. Twenty six twenty three Kansas City. You 1751 01:38:34.960 --> 01:38:37.960 get the teaser cover with Detroit Casey gets the win. 1752 01:38:38.119 --> 01:38:39.680 That that sounds just about right. 1753 01:38:40.640 --> 01:38:44.800 It does sound right. Goddamn. All right, let's move on 1754 01:38:45.039 --> 01:38:48.520 to those hot Atlanta facts. Oh, it's the first of 1755 01:38:48.640 --> 01:38:55.640 two f f and we have to have two Monday 1756 01:38:55.760 --> 01:38:58.840 night fucking football games. Do we have enough ship to 1757 01:38:58.960 --> 01:39:02.720 do Monday long morning. We don't have a recap show 1758 01:39:02.760 --> 01:39:06.319 to do or anything else. Fuck it, Let's just have 1759 01:39:06.520 --> 01:39:09.920 two goddamn games that probably everybody's got the fucking money on. 1760 01:39:10.479 --> 01:39:15.880 As we're talking about this bullshit, it's those Atlanta Falcons 1761 01:39:16.279 --> 01:39:21.399 hosting those Buffalo's. Go Buffalo. It's the Bills all right. 1762 01:39:21.760 --> 01:39:26.640 Preseason on this one, I had Atlanta plus three. Vegas 1763 01:39:26.920 --> 01:39:29.640 had Atlanta plus five and a half. Again, I've talked 1764 01:39:29.640 --> 01:39:34.359 about this. I was hired on Lanta than Vegas was. 1765 01:39:35.399 --> 01:39:42.119 It's now Buffalo minus three. No, they are back to 1766 01:39:42.199 --> 01:39:44.560 four and a half. So we split the baby on 1767 01:39:44.680 --> 01:39:46.359 that one. Let split the baby. 1768 01:39:46.359 --> 01:39:49.359 I had four and a half, it's. 1769 01:39:49.239 --> 01:39:51.479 Four and a half. So we split the baby on 1770 01:39:51.560 --> 01:39:54.680 that one, which is fair enough. I was lowering Buffalo 1771 01:39:54.880 --> 01:39:58.119 hiring Atlanta. So we're right in the middle of where 1772 01:39:58.279 --> 01:40:02.600 I thought we should be. So we're going on this one. 1773 01:40:03.720 --> 01:40:06.720 Well, So as far as the game goes, I don't know. 1774 01:40:06.840 --> 01:40:08.479 I don't know when you want to play it, but 1775 01:40:08.600 --> 01:40:12.159 I'm going to do a double danger Zone on Monday night. 1776 01:40:12.239 --> 01:40:15.880 We're going Maverick and Goose on both these games. There 1777 01:40:15.920 --> 01:40:33.520 you go. Yeah, So I just did at four and 1778 01:40:33.560 --> 01:40:36.000 a half. You're you're just you're you're you're making me, 1779 01:40:36.079 --> 01:40:38.239 You're fucking making me. And actually both these games are 1780 01:40:38.319 --> 01:40:39.960 at four and a half. Is at least the last 1781 01:40:39.960 --> 01:40:41.399 time I looked, I think they're both at four and 1782 01:40:41.439 --> 01:40:45.319 a half. So again, double double danger zone on both 1783 01:40:45.399 --> 01:40:49.640 dogs on Monday Night. Uh, just one on each just 1784 01:40:49.720 --> 01:40:51.600 because I don't love this. I don't love this. I'm 1785 01:40:51.640 --> 01:40:53.680 not going in. I'm not even going money line and 1786 01:40:53.800 --> 01:40:56.279 I'm not going crazy with this because I think Buffalo 1787 01:40:56.359 --> 01:40:59.880 coming off a loss, they're probably gonna win this game, probably, 1788 01:41:00.880 --> 01:41:03.760 but it's dangerous. So now I know that at all 1789 01:41:04.960 --> 01:41:08.279 they better. But that defense has not fucking looked good. 1790 01:41:08.359 --> 01:41:11.640 And and I think ed Oliver's coming back this week 1791 01:41:11.680 --> 01:41:13.319 and they have missed him in the middle. They're just 1792 01:41:13.520 --> 01:41:15.760 not the same team without him in the middle of 1793 01:41:15.800 --> 01:41:18.680 that of that defense, and that will help against this 1794 01:41:18.840 --> 01:41:21.640 running game and Beijon and and everything that Atlanta's got going. 1795 01:41:22.520 --> 01:41:27.800 But man, just I like I this Atlanta team. It 1796 01:41:28.159 --> 01:41:31.520 when I watched them, I'm like, Okay, besides that Carolina though, 1797 01:41:31.600 --> 01:41:34.600 like remember I said that Carolina game, throw that out. 1798 01:41:34.800 --> 01:41:36.359 They lost thirty to nothing. I don't know how the 1799 01:41:36.439 --> 01:41:39.880 fuck that even happened? Throw that out. Besides that, they 1800 01:41:39.960 --> 01:41:43.399 have been they're a good looking team on offense and defense, 1801 01:41:43.439 --> 01:41:45.000 and with the pass rush starting to come around a 1802 01:41:45.000 --> 01:41:47.439 little bit, some of those young players for Atlanta starting 1803 01:41:47.439 --> 01:41:49.920 to make starting to make their way. I just I 1804 01:41:50.119 --> 01:41:55.159 just like this matchup for Atlanta and now Josh Josh 1805 01:41:55.239 --> 01:41:58.920 has the thirty first ranked strength of schedule so far, 1806 01:41:59.039 --> 01:42:00.199 and I don't actually I don't know if this is 1807 01:42:00.319 --> 01:42:03.359 so far or if this takes into account the the 1808 01:42:03.680 --> 01:42:06.680 whole season. So both eves can can tell me if 1809 01:42:06.720 --> 01:42:09.800 it's if that's what they are so far, but they're not. 1810 01:42:10.000 --> 01:42:13.199 They haven't played very many good teams and this is 1811 01:42:13.239 --> 01:42:16.239 a good team on the road on Monday night. So 1812 01:42:16.399 --> 01:42:18.600 give me Alanta, give me Buffalo is a win, but 1813 01:42:18.920 --> 01:42:20.800 give me Atlanta to keep this close. And at four 1814 01:42:20.800 --> 01:42:22.800 and a half, that's just you just too much, that's 1815 01:42:22.880 --> 01:42:26.159 way too many points. So I'm on them now. As 1816 01:42:26.159 --> 01:42:30.119 far as the injury factors go, Atlanta's coming off the buy. 1817 01:42:30.520 --> 01:42:35.039 They're getting healthier, no significant injuries to to look at 1818 01:42:35.079 --> 01:42:37.920 for them. And and on the Buffalo bill side, they've 1819 01:42:37.960 --> 01:42:41.399 got a laundry list of players not out but dealing 1820 01:42:41.479 --> 01:42:44.119 with a lot of a lot of questions, a lot 1821 01:42:44.119 --> 01:42:45.920 of questionable, lot of a lot of their some of 1822 01:42:45.960 --> 01:42:48.800 their best players at Oliver, like I said, he's probably 1823 01:42:48.840 --> 01:42:51.439 gonna come back and play. So yeah, four and a half. 1824 01:42:51.479 --> 01:42:53.520 They're they're making me take them both sieves. They are 1825 01:42:53.560 --> 01:42:55.199 making me. And what I said when you're going is 1826 01:42:55.199 --> 01:42:58.039 the but the strength of schedule. I'm looking at thirty 1827 01:42:58.079 --> 01:43:02.319 first for Buffalo, So I don't know if that's all. 1828 01:43:02.319 --> 01:43:04.079 I don't know if that's taking an account the whole 1829 01:43:04.319 --> 01:43:10.600 season or just up to this point, but it was. Anyways, 1830 01:43:10.720 --> 01:43:12.560 I'm on Atlanta, and so what do you got with 1831 01:43:12.600 --> 01:43:15.439 the numbers? Say over there, let me check the stringing 1832 01:43:15.479 --> 01:43:16.319 schedule real quick. 1833 01:43:21.079 --> 01:43:25.159 See I got Buffalo the thirty seconds, so okay, So yeah, 1834 01:43:26.039 --> 01:43:28.399 but we talked about the prison there. They had one 1835 01:43:28.399 --> 01:43:31.439 of the easiest schedules going into leave this you know 1836 01:43:32.600 --> 01:43:34.000 as well that this is gonna happen. 1837 01:43:34.479 --> 01:43:37.560 Oh yeah, oh my god. So yeah, Baltimore Jets, Miami 1838 01:43:37.760 --> 01:43:40.439 and the Saints and then in New England last week. 1839 01:43:40.560 --> 01:43:44.079 So like, yeah, so. 1840 01:43:45.600 --> 01:43:49.600 Pow Ray's got Buffalo bucksay up, Buffalo eat Buffalo D 1841 01:43:49.680 --> 01:43:54.479 two Atlanta. I've got the BBG has Atlanta winning this 1842 01:43:54.640 --> 01:43:58.199 game twenty four to twenty two, which is well under 1843 01:43:58.239 --> 01:44:03.720 the forty eight and a half. Now there's a reason 1844 01:44:03.760 --> 01:44:08.039 for that. Pennix and Josh Allen both do not grade 1845 01:44:08.119 --> 01:44:12.560 up well versus either one of these defenses, so I 1846 01:44:12.640 --> 01:44:14.520 expect this to be a lower scoring game than the 1847 01:44:14.600 --> 01:44:19.720 market does. However, Atlanta does grade out well on the 1848 01:44:19.840 --> 01:44:22.399 running game, so it should be a good game for Jon. 1849 01:44:22.960 --> 01:44:27.600 Buffalo grades up find their running game. So you're James Cook, 1850 01:44:27.680 --> 01:44:32.239 you're Fantasy fans, you should be fine. There should be 1851 01:44:32.319 --> 01:44:36.880 a good game for Vjon. Here there there's two conflicting 1852 01:44:37.000 --> 01:44:41.840 trends and they're both coin flips really, so if you've 1853 01:44:41.960 --> 01:44:46.920 got a home dog after the buye, it's the only 1854 01:44:46.960 --> 01:44:51.159 good spot after the buye eighteen since twenty eighteen eighteen 1855 01:44:51.279 --> 01:44:54.399 fifteen and one ATS is fifty four and a half percent. However, 1856 01:44:55.039 --> 01:44:58.720 it's actually negative point zero one ATS and a line 1857 01:44:58.760 --> 01:45:02.279 of four point nine. We're pretty close to that, and 1858 01:45:02.399 --> 01:45:05.439 then Buffalo is going on the buy. So if you're 1859 01:45:05.479 --> 01:45:08.600 before the buy and you're the way favorite fifty three 1860 01:45:08.640 --> 01:45:11.319 and a half or twenty three and twenty, but at 1861 01:45:11.319 --> 01:45:13.920 a negative zero point one also at a lot of 1862 01:45:14.199 --> 01:45:17.880 three point nine. So basically both those trims cancel each 1863 01:45:17.880 --> 01:45:22.640 other out. No big thing there. Look overall for me 1864 01:45:22.720 --> 01:45:27.560 on this one, this is a game that Atlanta absolutely 1865 01:45:27.680 --> 01:45:32.279 can hold together to keep close, possibly still a win. 1866 01:45:33.439 --> 01:45:36.000 But if Buffalo is going to get to where they're going, 1867 01:45:36.720 --> 01:45:38.520 they will win this game. That they win it by 1868 01:45:38.640 --> 01:45:41.479 four and a half, I don't know, man, it was 1869 01:45:41.520 --> 01:45:44.359 at three and a half earlier, but all the fun. 1870 01:45:44.560 --> 01:45:47.800 Like literally, let me look back at the money real quick. 1871 01:45:52.520 --> 01:45:55.800 See it's still coming in on Buffalo. They might have 1872 01:45:55.840 --> 01:45:58.199 switch Atlanta at this point. Yeah, switch to Atlanta at 1873 01:45:58.239 --> 01:46:01.279 this point. So they starting to come back in Atlanta 1874 01:46:01.279 --> 01:46:04.279 at four and a half. So it's probably gonna keep 1875 01:46:04.319 --> 01:46:10.479 me off of Buffalo overall. But I expect them to 1876 01:46:10.520 --> 01:46:12.640 be a good game, and I expect either quarterback to 1877 01:46:12.680 --> 01:46:16.800 really have a great game. John should do what he 1878 01:46:16.920 --> 01:46:19.720 does and keep Atlanta in this one and be feisty. 1879 01:46:20.439 --> 01:46:24.000 You know, I don't really care who wins at the end. 1880 01:46:24.039 --> 01:46:26.199 I don't have an over under either one of these teams. 1881 01:46:26.359 --> 01:46:30.800 But you know, we'll see what happens, all right. 1882 01:46:31.399 --> 01:46:34.199 All right, moving on to the second of the Monday 1883 01:46:34.279 --> 01:46:40.159 night football games. A little Washington Redskins hosting those Chicago 1884 01:46:40.760 --> 01:46:46.159 bands that kid now preseason this, I had Washington minus three. 1885 01:46:46.920 --> 01:46:49.479 Vegas had the minus four and a half. They beat 1886 01:46:49.520 --> 01:46:51.840 me on this one. It's sitting at four and a half. 1887 01:46:52.560 --> 01:46:54.520 So Longhan, what do you go on this one? 1888 01:46:54.800 --> 01:46:57.560 Yeah, Like I said, danger Zone, I'm on the four 1889 01:46:57.560 --> 01:47:01.800 and a half. I like Chicago here. They're they're they're 1890 01:47:01.840 --> 01:47:03.439 on a two game winning streak and I don't know, 1891 01:47:03.560 --> 01:47:06.520 I know, the buy you know, kind of puts a 1892 01:47:07.760 --> 01:47:11.399 pause on that a little bit. But they're starting to 1893 01:47:12.159 --> 01:47:16.199 show a little bit of that offense and at least 1894 01:47:16.279 --> 01:47:18.960 Caleb looking like he has a clue at quarterback. And 1895 01:47:19.680 --> 01:47:21.920 I'm not a big Kleb fan. That's been well documented, 1896 01:47:22.039 --> 01:47:30.560 but I love the head coach. Unlike Aaron Gunn. People 1897 01:47:30.640 --> 01:47:34.239 are talking, there's rumors it's I'm not, but I love 1898 01:47:34.319 --> 01:47:37.520 the head coach. And whether you whoever you, whatever you 1899 01:47:37.600 --> 01:47:39.359 do in your bedroom, I think this. I think this 1900 01:47:39.479 --> 01:47:40.840 head coach is gonna get the best out of you, 1901 01:47:40.920 --> 01:47:45.359 no matter what. So the the Washington defense, it's looks 1902 01:47:46.279 --> 01:47:48.199 you know, it's had its moments, it's it's had its 1903 01:47:48.279 --> 01:47:51.720 ups and downs. But I just think that Chicago is 1904 01:47:51.760 --> 01:47:54.560 going to get their points here and you're giving me 1905 01:47:54.680 --> 01:47:57.439 four and a half. It's the revenge factor from the 1906 01:47:58.119 --> 01:48:01.640 just I mean just the brain dead moment from Chicago 1907 01:48:01.760 --> 01:48:03.920 last year with the hell Mary we all saw, we 1908 01:48:03.960 --> 01:48:05.279 all know, we all know it went on. 1909 01:48:05.600 --> 01:48:10.039 I remember exactly literally where I was the moment. 1910 01:48:11.079 --> 01:48:14.359 Yeah. So now now different head coach, different a lot 1911 01:48:14.399 --> 01:48:17.880 of different new players. But you know, just I don't 1912 01:48:18.000 --> 01:48:20.239 that's not even like a main factor like that. A 1913 01:48:20.239 --> 01:48:22.079 lot of the law that's not evenna matter. But if 1914 01:48:22.119 --> 01:48:24.560 it does come down to hell Mary, it probably won't 1915 01:48:24.640 --> 01:48:28.039 be players celebrating before the you know, the like, oh 1916 01:48:28.119 --> 01:48:29.520 they're running a play. I mean, let me get a 1917 01:48:29.560 --> 01:48:30.960 right to the news, and so it's not gonna know that. 1918 01:48:31.079 --> 01:48:32.880 But no, I just I just love the four and 1919 01:48:32.880 --> 01:48:34.520 a half and both these Monday night games. I think 1920 01:48:34.560 --> 01:48:37.119 I think that these the two dogs are very live. 1921 01:48:37.600 --> 01:48:40.039 I think that either one or both could steal these 1922 01:48:40.079 --> 01:48:42.880 Monday night games. And uh, I'm looking for them to 1923 01:48:42.880 --> 01:48:44.760 at least keep it close. Let's at least get a 1924 01:48:44.760 --> 01:48:47.000 couple of units on these danger zones at the plus 1925 01:48:47.039 --> 01:48:47.560 four and a half. 1926 01:48:49.039 --> 01:48:51.279 All right, so was gonna do the last one? I 1927 01:48:51.359 --> 01:48:54.800 can't be with you on this one powering no call here, 1928 01:48:55.000 --> 01:48:58.399 like I said, pretty close to what I had preseason 1929 01:48:58.520 --> 01:49:01.640 bucket though, well, actually the Buggets are no cold because 1930 01:49:04.199 --> 01:49:07.960 Chicago is now on the money plus two percent, So 1931 01:49:08.159 --> 01:49:15.439 BT Washington D two Chicago. The total is fifty. I've 1932 01:49:15.560 --> 01:49:18.119 got this grade at twenty eight to twenty two. Washington's 1933 01:49:18.199 --> 01:49:21.560 right on the number at fifty. This is going to 1934 01:49:21.600 --> 01:49:27.159 be This is going to be Jalen daniels best game 1935 01:49:27.239 --> 01:49:30.760 in the season. It should not be. It should be 1936 01:49:30.800 --> 01:49:35.920 an okay game for Sugar Bridges, not terrible. However, Washington 1937 01:49:36.039 --> 01:49:40.439 is about to run a fucking rough shot, rough shot 1938 01:49:40.760 --> 01:49:43.600 over this Chicago defense. They get a point and a 1939 01:49:43.800 --> 01:49:47.520 half of the BBG on the running game. This is 1940 01:49:47.640 --> 01:49:52.720 going to be just a demolition upfront for them running 1941 01:49:52.760 --> 01:49:55.880 the ball and Dana Danields should have fairy much successfulver this. 1942 01:49:57.239 --> 01:49:59.960 The only thing that could derail Washington winning this game 1943 01:50:00.239 --> 01:50:04.880 will be turnovers, obviously, which you can't predict those. But yeah, 1944 01:50:05.199 --> 01:50:07.479 Washington's gonna win this game. They're gonna win with margin 1945 01:50:07.640 --> 01:50:11.560 longmar is gonna lose this danger zone. Uh and then 1946 01:50:12.359 --> 01:50:16.039 after the buye away Dogs thirty four to thirty six 1947 01:50:16.119 --> 01:50:18.920 and one forty eight point six percent, So you're not 1948 01:50:19.319 --> 01:50:19.720 on the back. 1949 01:50:19.840 --> 01:50:21.920 Yeah, that's that's a bad one to be on right there. 1950 01:50:22.000 --> 01:50:24.640 That's that's I mean, forty eight point says it's not 1951 01:50:24.760 --> 01:50:28.199 fucking terrible, but it's just it's just a bad it's 1952 01:50:28.239 --> 01:50:33.159 a bad matchup for Chicago, especially, like I said, Jenleen Daniels, Yes, 1953 01:50:33.239 --> 01:50:35.920 he's gonna have a great game, but this running game 1954 01:50:36.600 --> 01:50:39.920 versus the Chicago defense is going to be I mean, 1955 01:50:40.119 --> 01:50:42.319 Bill or Bob or whatever the fuck his name is, 1956 01:50:43.159 --> 01:50:44.920 he's gonna be able to fucking name and score. You 1957 01:50:45.039 --> 01:50:47.319 got fucking fans, you've got fantasy on him. You should. 1958 01:50:48.359 --> 01:50:51.199 If you don't, you should, fucking I mean, I know 1959 01:50:51.399 --> 01:50:54.239 c K is gonna put out bets whatever he does 1960 01:50:54.319 --> 01:50:56.920 his thing, but I'm sure he's gonna have his numbers 1961 01:50:56.960 --> 01:50:59.800 crunched and he's gonna have him on over whatever the 1962 01:50:59.840 --> 01:51:02.439 fuck is totally is because he's gonna he's gonna fucking 1963 01:51:02.760 --> 01:51:08.319 murder literally fucking murder the Chicago defense. I don't expect 1964 01:51:08.359 --> 01:51:12.640 this game to be particularly close. Maybe it gets close 1965 01:51:12.640 --> 01:51:15.359 to the end or whatever, but yeah, Washington Mint four 1966 01:51:15.399 --> 01:51:16.640 and a half. The only way I can play this 1967 01:51:16.720 --> 01:51:20.920 one right, all right? Was the girls. That was all 1968 01:51:21.279 --> 01:51:46.520 them wins coming in the It's not gonna be all 1969 01:51:46.600 --> 01:51:49.000 right along one side of those free I said three 1970 01:51:49.960 --> 01:51:52.600 picks of the week later on. 1971 01:51:54.439 --> 01:51:56.680 All right, So if you thought I was kidding about 1972 01:51:56.920 --> 01:51:59.479 fading Tennessee the rest of the year, you're wrong, because 1973 01:51:59.680 --> 01:52:03.640 I'm I'm going against Tennessee and every free pick here. 1974 01:52:04.079 --> 01:52:05.960 What do I got here? Is it for? What are 1975 01:52:06.000 --> 01:52:10.359 we looking at? Yep, Vegas minus four NFL free pick 1976 01:52:10.399 --> 01:52:12.039 of the week on the podcast. 1977 01:52:14.640 --> 01:52:20.119 Obsessments. I actually like that a lot. All right, Let's 1978 01:52:20.199 --> 01:52:24.000 go with those ut s A, those road Runners, baby, 1979 01:52:24.479 --> 01:52:29.279 maybe for your fucking college free pick of minus eleven. Look, 1980 01:52:29.920 --> 01:52:32.760 I know Rises improved and I U T s A. 1981 01:52:33.039 --> 01:52:35.560 They have not been what they're supposed to be so 1982 01:52:35.720 --> 01:52:38.720 far this year. How about this is like the burn 1983 01:52:38.840 --> 01:52:41.319 the boats moment for them. They gotta win this game. 1984 01:52:42.840 --> 01:52:45.159 They gotta fucking win this game of margins. So let's 1985 01:52:45.199 --> 01:52:48.760 go with the fucking road Runners at home to cover 1986 01:52:48.920 --> 01:52:52.760 the fucking eleven and get us that fucking victory. Baby, 1987 01:52:53.760 --> 01:52:55.439 tell me that fabulous. 1988 01:52:56.800 --> 01:52:59.159 Patreon one more time, all right, be sure to go 1989 01:52:59.199 --> 01:53:02.760 with that Patreon p patreon dot com, slash bet underscore 1990 01:53:03.000 --> 01:53:05.640 fgh you can sign up for college picks or a 1991 01:53:05.720 --> 01:53:08.520 NFL with Bo Stevis. I've got some NFL picks. They're 1992 01:53:08.600 --> 01:53:13.439 all available Premium picks up there right now. Our Monday 1993 01:53:13.520 --> 01:53:16.199 recap podcast will be out. We'll talk about all the wins, 1994 01:53:16.239 --> 01:53:19.079 all the losses, all the kick in the ball. So people, 1995 01:53:19.560 --> 01:53:21.840 stop going away your hard money on a guessing game. 1996 01:53:22.159 --> 01:53:24.960 Let the pros do the heavy listing. So sign up, 1997 01:53:25.159 --> 01:53:27.760 tell a friend and joining in the funnel watching football, 1998 01:53:27.880 --> 01:53:30.840 drinking beer and Neva. Pay a book again. 1999 01:53:31.000 --> 01:53:34.960 Come on, people, never say a book again. Steven Tynan 2000 01:53:35.039 --> 01:53:35.359 take us