Speaker 1: I'm right. Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Ion Geopolitics.
Speaker 1: I'm Dimitch con Tako, so I'm here with the full crew.
Speaker 1: Andy Milburn, Mick Mulroy, Jason Lyons. A lot happened today, big,
Speaker 1: big sabotage attack in Russia by Ukraine hit a ton
Speaker 1: of aircraft, a ton of strategic bombers at an incredible operation,
Speaker 1: and like, let's just crack into it. You guys want
Speaker 1: to mud wrestle for who goes first?
Speaker 2: You tell me, I'll jump in if you want, go
Speaker 2: for it. Andy, all right, so you know essentially and
Speaker 2: guys jump in. Of course, here's what we know right
Speaker 2: now at upwards forty and upwards, strategic bombers have been destroyed. So,
Speaker 2: for instance, something like twenty seven Russian TU ninety five,
Speaker 2: and those of you out there who are egg geeks
Speaker 2: or followers of Alex Holings on, to U ninety five
Speaker 2: is very important to the Russians because they use it
Speaker 2: as a missile platform. In fact, a lot of the
Speaker 2: cruise missiles that are launched that Kiev are being fired
Speaker 2: by the t U ninety five, for instance, from over
Speaker 2: the Caspian Sea. Anyway, that's not the point. The main
Speaker 2: point is like at least forty of these strategic bombers,
Speaker 2: I mean it's strategic aircraft and deep located deep within
Speaker 2: side Russia four bases. Okay, and the reports vary, but
Speaker 2: as far as how deep inside Russia, one report says
Speaker 2: as far as names of place as deep as four
Speaker 2: thousand kilometers inside Russia have been destroyed by multiple FPV
Speaker 2: and other types of drones, mostly FPV drones. How did
Speaker 2: it happen? Well, apparently it's an SBU operation. SBU is
Speaker 2: their intelligence agency, not their military intelligence agency, but their
Speaker 2: equivalent of the CIA, and it's a eighteen month operation
Speaker 2: was planned for eighteen months by the head of the
Speaker 2: SBU is a guy named Vassilo Maluk by the way,
Speaker 2: who was born in nineteen eighty three, so he's a
Speaker 2: young guy, and he began the war actually as a
Speaker 2: as a soldier. He fought, he was involved in the
Speaker 2: fighting for the airport early on in the war. And
Speaker 2: so what they did this is really astounding. They smuggled
Speaker 2: in multiple FPV drones unknown how many, but it's probably,
Speaker 2: you know, probably upwards to of one hundred or more.
Speaker 2: And they smuggled in these wooden compartments all right, and
Speaker 2: I say smuggled in, I mean that's not that easy.
Speaker 2: But somehow they got them in over land and then
Speaker 2: subsequently welded or attached these compartments with the drones inside,
Speaker 2: to trucks that they knew the routes of these trucks
Speaker 2: would lead them within a few kilometers of the various
Speaker 2: bases that they've attacked. Okay, so you can imagine all
Speaker 2: the background that has to go into planning this. The
Speaker 2: truck drivers are unwitting. And here's the really astonishing part
Speaker 2: that we don't we can't answer how this was done,
Speaker 2: but it appears as though the FPV drones were operated
Speaker 2: from inside Ukraine. And if you look on in Twitterland
Speaker 2: you'll see now there's video of the trucks exploding. In
Speaker 2: one case, Russian soldiers are boarding the truck to try
Speaker 2: and stop the drones from taking off and the right
Speaker 2: and the truck just catches on fire and then explodes.
Speaker 2: So factored into this were, you know, some means of
Speaker 2: destroying the evidence and killing anyone who tried to come
Speaker 2: on board to prevent this from happening. I'll pause there
Speaker 2: for a moment. Let's see what you guys have to
Speaker 2: add to that.
Speaker 1: Mick Nick, you're muted it you're muted.
Speaker 3: Sorry, Well, what I would say is, hats off to
Speaker 3: the SBU. It's a you know, I'm very familiar with,
Speaker 3: and you know this is going to go down in history.
Speaker 3: Is one of the most effective, certainly in the cost
Speaker 3: effective range. Right, You're looking at some of these drones
Speaker 3: that are like five hundred dollars and they're taken out
Speaker 3: billion dollar aircraft. And I'm just getting because I'm going
Speaker 3: to be talking about this on ABC to show you
Speaker 3: the level of this. ABC usually doesn't break in on
Speaker 3: the weekends for this kind of stuff, but they are,
Speaker 3: so it really does show you how enormousis was. It
Speaker 3: looks like there were four different air bases that were targeted,
Speaker 3: and I mean, it's almost worth going down the list
Speaker 3: of aircraft that were taken out because it's a lot,
Speaker 3: you know, like like Andy said, billions of dollars worth
Speaker 3: of strategic aircraft which are not easily replaced. And it
Speaker 3: shows that once again, Russia is not anything near what
Speaker 3: we had made them out to be. When you can't
Speaker 3: even protect your places like this, thousands and thousands of
Speaker 3: kilometers inside Russia. But this is part of a much
Speaker 3: bigger discussion, right. So we saw a lot of talk
Speaker 3: this week with Senator Graham and Blumenthal and visiting President
Speaker 3: Zelensky talking about the sanctioning Russia's Russia Act. That needs
Speaker 3: to happen. It means we need to stop talking about
Speaker 3: these things. It's claire Russia is not interested at all
Speaker 3: and ceasefire negotiations. I mean they proposed Istanbul and then
Speaker 3: didn't show up basically even though President Trump was willing
Speaker 3: to show up and President Solenski was willing to show up.
Speaker 3: There's one party to this and it's been the same
Speaker 3: party since the invasion that isn't interested in the ceasefire.
Speaker 3: They only understand strength. This was showed. This showed strength
Speaker 3: today and it showed us. And then there's even other
Speaker 3: videos of other attacks going on today. I'm sure will
Speaker 3: we met with Russia sen and cruise missiles and drones
Speaker 3: right at civilians as it's done the whole time. Another
Speaker 3: war crime. But it's time and I think you can
Speaker 3: see the movement on including in Japan but also in Europe,
Speaker 3: on releasing frozen Russian assets and they need to pass
Speaker 3: this sectioning Russia Act, which will have a devastating effect
Speaker 3: potentially on Russia's ability to keep this war going financially.
Speaker 3: So hats off to them a hell of an operation.
Speaker 3: This is going to be dissected by every military of
Speaker 3: the planet right now to see how this was carried
Speaker 3: out and how they can potentially do in the future
Speaker 3: and defending goodness in the future, because this is going
Speaker 3: to lead to a whole different discussion on the use
Speaker 3: of drones, which is coming so fast. I don't think
Speaker 3: people even understand modern militaries, don't even understand the impact
Speaker 3: of what's going on in Ukraine on the future of warfare.
Speaker 3: And if you add that artificial intelligence in quantum computing,
Speaker 3: we're about to enter on a whole new air. I
Speaker 3: don't even know if science fiction has even caught up
Speaker 3: depicting what this era is going to be.
Speaker 2: So clearly it's time to coincide with I'm sorry, mat Yeah,
Speaker 2: clearly it's it's it's time possibly to coincide with with
Speaker 2: Senators Graham. Senator Graham and Bluementhal's visit to Kiev, right,
Speaker 2: I mean, they're in Kiev for now, and Silansky has
Speaker 2: just said to them, look, we have a roadmap for peace,
Speaker 2: we'd like to present it again and evidently had this
Speaker 2: up his sleeve, which is which is masterful timing. As
Speaker 2: we talk about the Russians don't understand please for peace
Speaker 2: or anything, but they do understand when they lose thirty
Speaker 2: percent of their strategic athleet.
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Speaker 2: And by the way, there's things popping up on the
Speaker 2: news sadly. One it looks like one of these truck
Speaker 2: drivers was lynched or killed by Russian security forces and
Speaker 2: there's a picture of them swung out on the road
Speaker 2: with a rope around his neck. And the Russians have
Speaker 2: released two others having determined that they were unwitting crazy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jason, give us a rundown of like what was
Speaker 1: lost and stuff like that. I think you have like
Speaker 1: a good handle on what.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's kind of conflicting because some of the number
Speaker 6: the numbers saying forty aircraft were hit, but the numbers
Speaker 6: that I'm getting it's way way over that. So I'll
Speaker 6: just read you the types of it aircraft and their significance.
Speaker 6: So we have some T one sixty Blackjacks, that is
Speaker 6: the and I'm giving you the NATO designation Blackjack. Those
Speaker 6: are the equivalent of their answer to the B one
Speaker 6: USB one bomber supersonic bomber long range. As Andy mentioned,
Speaker 6: some t U ninety five ms bears. Those are Cold
Speaker 6: War era propeller driven bombers, but have massive range for
Speaker 6: launching cruise missiles, anti ship missiles, those sorts of things.
Speaker 1: And they're using those almost every night, right, lobbing over
Speaker 1: cruise missiles.
Speaker 6: Yep. Absolutely. And then a couple of IL seventy eight
Speaker 6: m mitas aircraft. They are military transports pardon my notes here,
Speaker 6: Some AM twenty six CURL military transport aircraft. A couple
Speaker 6: of AN twelve cubs those are also Cold War era
Speaker 6: transport and patrol aircraft. Also significant. Some TU twenty two
Speaker 6: M three backfire supersonic bombers. Those are also Cold War
Speaker 6: air aircraft, some MiG thirty one Foxhounds. Foxhounds, they're supersonic interceptors.
Speaker 6: They're developing the seventies, if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 6: So, and then there's rumor I don't know if they
Speaker 6: were hit or up, but probably the most significant aircraft
Speaker 6: that were lost, if this is true, or some two
Speaker 6: af A fifty mainstay aircraft. They are airborne early warning
Speaker 6: and control aircraft, so they can control multiple areas of
Speaker 6: the battlefield. Aircraft, missiles, they're not armed themselves, but they
Speaker 6: can control those things. And from what I understand, there
Speaker 6: were only six operational ones because there were others that
Speaker 6: were lost earlier as of twenty twenty four, So if
Speaker 6: they lost two more or even one, that's a significant loss.
Speaker 6: So that's the rundown that I have so far.
Speaker 2: Guys, can't I can't think of I can't think of
Speaker 2: a special operations case. And I mean, I'm sorry, special
Speaker 2: operations operation that rivals this, can you guys certainly you
Speaker 2: know in modern times, please let us know.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: And and the fact just the fact that you're you're
Speaker 6: using and I've heard others in the media use the
Speaker 6: term special operations, like most traditional special operations that people
Speaker 6: think of are green bereys, you know, seals, maresc. That
Speaker 6: sort of thing. And the fact that drones have been
Speaker 6: now placed in that realm is it's pretty significant.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the intelligence that went into this, it's yeah,
Speaker 3: that's why I was running by the intelligence services, and
Speaker 3: that's likely what we're going to be seeing in the future.
Speaker 2: And incredibly ballsy actions on the ground, you know, getting
Speaker 2: I mean, the logistics of getting these things in country,
Speaker 2: getting them on top, welled in on top of the trucks.
Speaker 2: However they were attached on top of these trucks without
Speaker 2: being seen, you know, multiple trucks. I mean, it's it's
Speaker 2: just phenomenal. And the technoledge of being able to control
Speaker 2: these drones from all that distance.
Speaker 6: Absolutely Now I don't know how true. Sorry, no, no,
Speaker 6: not true. This is maybe U jents know, But I'm
Speaker 6: hearing that Zelenski himself took a personal interest in this
Speaker 6: and overseeing this, do you know if that's right makes sense?
Speaker 3: I mean, this is strategic level, This is a strategic
Speaker 3: impact operation for sure. I guess they probably could have
Speaker 3: guessed how successful it could have been when they were
Speaker 3: planning this and it looks like, you know, hit met expectations.
Speaker 3: So I hope this translates. Obviously it's going to be
Speaker 3: a military, huge military setback for Russia, but I hope
Speaker 3: it translates to people understanding that Ukraine is not losing
Speaker 3: like this this fiction that they're losing, and that there
Speaker 3: is is Russian propaganda that's there. I mean, if you
Speaker 3: look at the map from a year ago till now,
Speaker 3: it's barely any changed and this is UH and this
Speaker 3: is going to really set them back. And I and
Speaker 3: I hope they can just capitalize on this, not just militarily,
Speaker 3: but politically and internationally when it comes to support, I mean,
Speaker 3: back the back not only the person the country that's
Speaker 3: in the right, but back the country that's in that's
Speaker 3: got the mic and the smarts, and they're they're they
Speaker 3: are showing it, they're bringing it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it turns out they do have some cards to play,
Speaker 1: you know. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Melayak has been you know, we've mentioned, we
Speaker 2: talked about Budenov who hits the UH, the g U
Speaker 2: R and UH, you know, he's the military intelligence side.
Speaker 2: Also relatively young guy late no and now forty years old,
Speaker 2: and he's been behind a lot of the he was,
Speaker 2: so the GUA is behind You remember all the talk
Speaker 2: about the Russian insurgent groups withinside Russia, and that was
Speaker 2: that was a g u R operation, and some of
Speaker 2: the drone strikes from Moscow came from g u R.
Speaker 2: But the SBU was behind the Crimean bridge attack if
Speaker 2: you remember that, and the and thee the sea drone
Speaker 2: attacks too. In fact, that one of the sea drones
Speaker 2: is named after Maluk, the head of the SBU, And
Speaker 2: it's kind of interesting. Malayuk's the first non political appointee
Speaker 2: as head of the SDU. You know it was I
Speaker 2: don't know if you're tracking, but earlier on in the war,
Speaker 2: not long after I appeared my infamous appearance on the
Speaker 2: Team House where you know, I said I they said, hey,
Speaker 2: Ukraine has some problems to solve itself. Zelenski was evidently watching,
Speaker 2: realizing that I was right, and fired five senior guys
Speaker 2: within the SBU. They've had problems within the SBU. In fact,
Speaker 2: Maluo after he was appointed, personally arrested the chief of
Speaker 2: staff of SBU's counter terrorism center as a Russian agent,
Speaker 2: and he's exposed three hundred's the SPU's arrested just in
Speaker 2: the last few months, three hundred alleged Russian or Ukrainian
Speaker 2: traitors within the Ukrainian security Service. So he's cleaning house
Speaker 2: inside and he's doing you know, he's him doing incredible
Speaker 2: things against Russia itself. You know, just finish up by
Speaker 2: saying that we talked about the fact that Russia not
Speaker 2: only has lost control of the seas, but has lost
Speaker 2: most of its black sea fleet, and the Ukrainian and
Speaker 2: Ukrainians don't even really have a navy to speak of.
Speaker 2: You know, it's all been asymmetric attacks. And in the
Speaker 2: same way, you know, here we are faffing around with
Speaker 2: thirty billion dollar aircraft carriers over.
Speaker 1: I knew it. I knew you were going to bring
Speaker 1: it back instinct.
Speaker 2: According to our own Secretary of Defense, within twenty minutes, right,
Speaker 2: that's what he said today. Every single US aircraft carry
Speaker 2: can be sunk within twenty minutes. But what's a real
Speaker 2: aircraft carrier. It's an articulated lorry, right, as the heads
Speaker 2: the British say, I just knew it.
Speaker 1: I knew I was coming back to go ahead and
Speaker 1: make sorry.
Speaker 3: Is the support that the US has in the pipeline
Speaker 3: is going to run out, right, So there's talk discussions
Speaker 3: underway of Europe buying our stuff and giving it to them,
Speaker 3: and we just need to not only continue our support,
Speaker 3: we need to increase our support. That's what the leader
Speaker 3: of the free world does. When a one country, particularly
Speaker 3: a country we identified from multiple national security strategies as
Speaker 3: one of our biggest adversary, invades the democratic country, we
Speaker 3: need to support. I'm going to be a broken record
Speaker 3: on this, but the problem is is there's a lot
Speaker 3: of talk, and the talk's going in the right direction,
Speaker 3: but there isn't a lot of action. Pass the bill,
Speaker 3: increase the support, release the funds of frozen assets. This
Speaker 3: is the time to really make difference. If you want
Speaker 3: to see a ceasfire, it's gonna have to be Russia
Speaker 3: seas itself losing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have an opportunity here.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, I'm I guess h early estimates are saying that
Speaker 6: if the reporting is correct on the aircraft that were
Speaker 6: struck in the damage onto these airfields, there's about it's
Speaker 6: about two billion dollars in damage if it's true, which
Speaker 6: is a huge blow. And then also I think Andy,
Speaker 6: you sent us the link on x about a explosion
Speaker 6: observed at several Amorsk, home to Russian submarines.
Speaker 2: Your mut muty, Yeah, that's gonna be interesting to see.
Speaker 2: There's much chatter and twitter land on that, but there's
Speaker 2: more than I mean, there's multiple reports now of explosions there,
Speaker 2: suggesting maybe somehow they've combined this with an attack on
Speaker 2: a submarine base, either with c drones or maybe also
Speaker 2: with fpvs.
Speaker 6: And soon I saw two major bridges were hit as well.
Speaker 6: I didn't see where nine dead and uh yeah, I
Speaker 6: think one fell on a h a civilian train as well,
Speaker 6: so it'd probably be more casualties. But yeah, bold moves.
Speaker 3: Just think about what's going on right now in the
Speaker 3: US military, right all look at our all our bomber bases,
Speaker 3: look at our uh, you know, nuclear submarines.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: We've got very comfortable with, you know, having conventional overmatch
Speaker 3: of all our adversaries. But this has changing the equation entirely.
Speaker 6: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is in my estimation, this
Speaker 3: calls for like an immediate freaking, I don't know what
Speaker 3: you want to call it, summit coming together to talk
Speaker 3: about where this is headed and how we make sure
Speaker 3: we maintain our superiority.
Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed, I'm not optimistic. We moved so slowly. And
Speaker 2: it's kind of an interesting dichotomy, right if I can
Speaker 2: say that word D.
Speaker 1: On this show of course does feel free?
Speaker 2: You know, we have a we have an assistance a
Speaker 2: military assistance group within Kiev. Now, I mean the US
Speaker 2: military does we and yes, But but what I'm heading
Speaker 2: on this is the days of US teaching Ukrainians anything
Speaker 2: a lot gone. I mean, we need we need to
Speaker 2: be learning from them at every single level what they
Speaker 2: have learned on the ground for everything from how that
Speaker 2: their soldiers fight, how they organize, to you know, this
Speaker 2: kind of special operation. I mean, we need to be
Speaker 2: learning and I'm not sure we are humble enough as
Speaker 2: an institution to do that. But you know, to mix
Speaker 2: point everything from our vulnerability is our use of high
Speaker 2: end drones and weapons systems that are incredibly vulnerable. We
Speaker 2: talked about losing thirty, you know, thirty predators over Yemen
Speaker 2: in the last few years, each of which is thirty
Speaker 2: million billion, I mean thirty sorry, thirty million dollars. You know,
Speaker 2: we just don't learn, and yet the Ukrainians are mass generating.
Speaker 2: You know, I read about one factory turning out ten
Speaker 2: thousand a month. You know, last time I was seeing
Speaker 2: like one thousand a month, I was way low. People
Speaker 2: were sending in comments about that, and we just are
Speaker 2: nowhere nearvous And our acquisition system operates like glacial speed.
Speaker 2: By the time that we you know, we've chosen to
Speaker 2: adopt a platform or weapons system and costing multi multimillion dollars,
Speaker 2: and by the time it hits the assembly line, it's
Speaker 2: already obsolete. We've got nothing, done nothing to fix that.
Speaker 2: We will do nothing to fix it. At the infantry level.
Speaker 2: And certainly, I'm speaking for the Marine Corps, we are
Speaker 2: hopelessly inadequately trained. I know that sounds like blasphemy, but
Speaker 2: the Marine Rifle Squad operates in much the same way
Speaker 2: did twenty years ago. It's no more lethal, has the
Speaker 2: same weapons systems that the use of drones isn't off
Speaker 2: the thought if they use them at all. You know,
Speaker 2: we really need to we really need to wake up,
Speaker 2: will we? I don't know.
Speaker 3: Another aspect of this is controlling the transfer of technology.
Speaker 2: Right, so we.
Speaker 3: As a country, legislation, whatever we need to do, we
Speaker 3: need to ensure that we're not only capitalizing on the
Speaker 3: technological advantages. But we're doing everything we can to prevent
Speaker 3: our adversaries from because you know, let's face it, they
Speaker 3: generally their plan China and talking about specifically, it's let
Speaker 3: the Americans develop it, innovate it, and then we're going
Speaker 3: to steal it and then mass produce it. We've got
Speaker 3: to make sure that that we cut that chain right.
Speaker 3: And one of the ways to do that is to
Speaker 3: work with your allies. I know it's not the popular
Speaker 3: approach right now, but we can do that if we
Speaker 3: work with our allies. And important to point out, you know,
Speaker 3: if you look at where the hubs in the United
Speaker 3: States are for technological advantage or advancement, I should say
Speaker 3: it's in northern California and around Boston. Why because that's
Speaker 3: what the universities that produce the best of the best
Speaker 3: are coming out of. We need to ensure that that continues.
Speaker 3: Like whatever political issues you know between the administration and
Speaker 3: I'll leave that to the political folks, but from a
Speaker 3: military standpoint, we want the best in the brightest come
Speaker 3: to the United States and.
Speaker 2: We want to take them.
Speaker 3: We want to we want to basically steal them.
Speaker 2: And I don't mean kidnapping.
Speaker 3: But you know, if you look at the top ten
Speaker 3: you know tech companies in the United States. I just
Speaker 3: heard this morning, five of them are run by immigrants
Speaker 3: into the United States. I mean, just go down the list.
Speaker 3: I mean, hell, Elon Musk right, let's let's let's let's
Speaker 3: try to get the best talent in the world the
Speaker 3: right way by lording to the United States for the
Speaker 3: best education and keep it up right, So this is
Speaker 3: all tied together. It's not a separate thing. It's not
Speaker 3: just an economic issue. It's about the preservation of our
Speaker 3: advantage in the in our nation security.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, yeah, right on a couple of things. In note,
Speaker 1: early on a couple of hours ago, Axios was reporting
Speaker 1: that the Trump administration was notified of this attack and
Speaker 1: they've protracted the trumpet. The administration wasn't notified until after
Speaker 1: this went down. So you know, there's just different disinformation
Speaker 1: running rampant for sure, like everywhere, everyone's gonna get caught
Speaker 1: up in it because this is happening so fast. I
Speaker 1: feel like the last time this was like it's such
Speaker 1: an insane sabotage clandestine covert op was Israel and the
Speaker 1: pagers with hesbolo. I guess shocking wise, right, like, yeah.
Speaker 2: But this is I mean, the scale of this is
Speaker 2: in fact, yes, that's right. We were astounded a few
Speaker 2: months ago at the sophistication of that operation and there
Speaker 2: and now it seems like a.
Speaker 1: I mean, they can't replace those aircraft, like they probably
Speaker 1: don't even the assembly lines to make new ones still
Speaker 1: because they're you know, they built them in the sixties
Speaker 1: and seventies or probably before then. Also another one, there's
Speaker 1: some chirping going on in like the Russia Telegram world
Speaker 1: about like how this opens up the possibility of a
Speaker 1: nuclear tactical nuclear retaliation. What do you I think it's bullshit?
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on that?
Speaker 6: I agree it's bullshit. I don't think it's gonna happen.
Speaker 3: I mean, if they're gonna do it, they're gonna do it.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing.
Speaker 3: They're always gonna say, they're gonna use us. So so
Speaker 3: what is zukrain not supposed to win because they might
Speaker 3: use nukes?
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's uh yeah, I mean it'd be horrible
Speaker 3: if they do. But you got you're in it to
Speaker 3: win it, so you take every possible chance. You got
Speaker 3: to to put them on our heels. Absolutely, And if
Speaker 3: they use nuclear weapons even technical you know it's a
Speaker 3: low yield, it's gonna spread into Poland and out and
Speaker 3: I think should be considered an attack on NATO.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to assume that. Like talking about before,
Speaker 1: we were talking about like learning the tactics and what's
Speaker 1: going on now in the war in Ukraine, Like we
Speaker 1: should be like at you know, learning this stuff as
Speaker 1: the US military. You have to assume Poland is like
Speaker 1: hoovering this information up right, like because they're on the
Speaker 1: front line right there with Belarus and stuff like that,
Speaker 1: like they they need to be gearing up for it
Speaker 1: if it were to ever happen.
Speaker 3: Well, you saw General Petraeus I think this week talking
Speaker 3: about he thinks Lithuania is next, right, So if we don't,
Speaker 3: if we don't assist Ukraine and in winning this, it's
Speaker 3: gonna spread. It's pretty obvious and it's time for It's
Speaker 3: time for action. Less words, more action.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I absolutely agree. I Mean when I when I
Speaker 6: coached and played football, there was a mantra that we
Speaker 6: use their weakness is our weakness, so we could be great,
Speaker 6: have the best defense in the state. But all it
Speaker 6: takes is one miss step coupled with that hubris of
Speaker 6: we have the best defense in the state and now
Speaker 6: we're then we've made the same mistakes are and we're
Speaker 6: getting our asses handed to us. So I think, like
Speaker 6: you said, make some sort of consortium. Something needs to
Speaker 6: be looked at in the United States, take a step
Speaker 6: back and say where are we vulnerable? Because if you
Speaker 6: think about it, it was a great special operation. They
Speaker 6: were able to smuggle these trucks in and pull this
Speaker 6: operation off. But think about here in the United States,
Speaker 6: trucks drive everywhere freely, you know. So, and I'm an
Speaker 6: aircraft geek and I'm always looking at videos of they
Speaker 6: call them plane spotters, who will sit outside of military
Speaker 6: bases and freely take pictures of these planes taking off
Speaker 6: and landing and everything. So what says that this couldn't
Speaker 6: happen here? You know, we need to definitely get off
Speaker 6: our harright horst and take a look back and say,
Speaker 6: you know, take a step back and say where are
Speaker 6: we vulnerable? In this same way?
Speaker 2: I mean, Putin's been threatening nuclear escalations since the beginning
Speaker 2: of the Wall. You know, frankly, what do you think
Speaker 2: is holding him back. It's not the goodness of his heart.
Speaker 2: It's not that oh yeah, hey, I would do it,
Speaker 2: and I'm too nice a guy. He's not doing it
Speaker 2: because he knows what's going to happen in return, and
Speaker 2: we haven't figured that out with you know, all the
Speaker 2: Russian sympathizers on the left and the right here constantly
Speaker 2: referred we're on the brink of the Third World War,
Speaker 2: you know whoever it is. And under under Biden, it
Speaker 2: was the right wing accusing him of bringing us to that.
Speaker 2: And now you know there's there's concern that there's accusations
Speaker 2: that Zelenski is doing that. Well, no, it's like a
Speaker 2: Russian is. Russia is the aggressor. By the way, it
Speaker 2: doesn't matter how we want to try and twist history.
Speaker 2: Russia is the aggressor and b Russia is not motivated
Speaker 2: by any feeling of benevolence towards the global world order.
Speaker 2: Putin doesn't care about casualties, even his own. If he
Speaker 2: has not used nuclear weapons yet, it's because he is
Speaker 2: shit scared. That's that they're going to be used against
Speaker 2: him too, in which will precipitate his downfall. I mean
Speaker 2: that is so obvious. It's just amazing that we have
Speaker 2: to explain it on this show. But Diaz, you described
Speaker 2: the show. Really the level that we're pitching is to
Speaker 2: to cater for those who like the obvious being explained
Speaker 2: to them.
Speaker 6: I would say we would lose We're gonna lose listeners
Speaker 6: after that.
Speaker 2: But no, no, right now.
Speaker 1: There was also like a like a thread of thought
Speaker 1: that what went down in the Russian telegram world about
Speaker 1: how this was their Pearl Harbor. It's like, guys, are
Speaker 1: we fucking living in the same world. Like Andy just said,
Speaker 1: Russia is by far and away, without a shadow of
Speaker 1: doubt the fucking aggressor here. So for them to beget.
Speaker 3: There, if we invaded Japan first, right, and then they
Speaker 3: fought back and blew up, then it would.
Speaker 1: Be like, yeah, anything else on this, I mean, it's
Speaker 1: pretty unprecedented thing. I know it's gonna be going on
Speaker 1: all day. We've all been on our phones while we've
Speaker 1: been doing this. It's looking at like any updates and
Speaker 1: stuff like that.
Speaker 6: I still want to try to have Alex on at
Speaker 6: some point talk about the aircraft losses.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he would be great. Alex's uh, of course, airpower
Speaker 1: Sandbox News. He's the you know, an expert on aviation,
Speaker 1: I would say military aviation. I mean, do we even
Speaker 1: talk about anything else here than this because this is
Speaker 1: just the first thing that popped off and is insane?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is it. Yeah, I mean, and
Speaker 2: I think I think as usual, you know, there's normally
Speaker 2: about these things, there's a flood of information and then
Speaker 2: there's there's gonna be a little bit of a gap,
Speaker 2: and then we'll get more. We'll probably hear whether or
Speaker 2: not the h we'll get a little more charity on
Speaker 2: which Russian bases were were hit.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: You know, what we do know is roughly the order
Speaker 2: of magnitude of aircraft destroyed because has been very the
Speaker 2: videos of it, and all these bloggers and geeks who
Speaker 2: follow this stuff on on Twitter have been counting them.
Speaker 2: And by the way, so if you notice on all
Speaker 2: the FPV drones, and Alex will explain this, it's probably
Speaker 2: a very obvious point to Alex. But again, you know,
Speaker 2: I have made a career out of stating the obvious.
Speaker 2: But the fpvs are being driven right into the wing route.
Speaker 2: Have you noticed like the same place on every aircraft
Speaker 2: and apparently that is you know, if you're going to
Speaker 2: do a single strike on an aircraft, that's that's the
Speaker 2: best place to head. And the fact that, as you
Speaker 2: guys pointed out, four hundred dollars drone in sand.
Speaker 6: Can do that.
Speaker 2: Dam it's just by striking at that one point.
Speaker 1: Is there a possibility you think that they had like
Speaker 1: were the fiber optic ones, but the fiber optics were
Speaker 1: connected to the actual cab of the truck. No, right,
Speaker 1: So how are they controlling it so deep into Russia?
Speaker 1: That's the wild thing.
Speaker 2: That's what I don't understand. And the fiber optic connect
Speaker 2: to the truck wouldn't make any sense because the ground
Speaker 2: the fiber optics is supposed to connect to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, So.
Speaker 2: I mean I mean that that is that is a
Speaker 2: complete unknown. I haven't heard of fbvs being controlled from
Speaker 2: that kind of distance. I mean, if we're talking, if
Speaker 2: we're really talking, I think it must be an exaggeration
Speaker 2: where someone said four thousand clicks in for one of
Speaker 2: these bases.
Speaker 1: But if not, but let's say it's a thousand if
Speaker 1: we're talking eighteen hundred clicks, Yeah, unprecedented, yea, right, No,
Speaker 1: these drones are like the range is like fifty kilometers.
Speaker 1: It's not super like long.
Speaker 3: Isn't the base like four thousand?
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's like forty three hundred clicks.
Speaker 1: So they must have had somebody on the ground, maybe
Speaker 1: not on the truck, not on the truck or in
Speaker 1: the truck, but somebody was on that.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know the I mean, obviously
Speaker 2: they had someone on the ground to get this one
Speaker 2: set up, but they would have had to have I mean,
Speaker 2: this is these are multiple mode. These are you know,
Speaker 2: dozens of operators, right, and so putting them on the
Speaker 2: ground would make them supremely vulnerable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it makes sense that they were not on
Speaker 2: the ground. But how they're doing.
Speaker 1: This is so there was a picture of the gentleman
Speaker 1: you mentioned who's run who runs the g u R.
Speaker 1: He was looking at a like it looked like a
Speaker 1: map of one of the bases. It could be possible
Speaker 1: with the right amount of intelligence in the right you know,
Speaker 1: knowing exactly where the stuff is. Like maybe they pre
Speaker 1: programmed these drones to where to fly to.
Speaker 2: Maybe absolutely maybe, except they're getting live feed from them, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you have you have a connection somehow. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So there is a connection. Yeah, and I mean again,
Speaker 2: we probably won't find out all the technical details, but
Speaker 2: again here we are the most sophisticated nation in the world.
Speaker 2: I can't imagine us pulling something off like this, Yeah, Nick,
Speaker 2: can you? I mean, I know, probably we had a
Speaker 2: much better chance when you still at the agency.
Speaker 3: I don't know about the most technically capable guy, but
Speaker 3: I mean this, I think right now we need to
Speaker 3: be planning so that we can pull something like this
Speaker 3: off absolutely one hundred percent. I imagine that's not just
Speaker 3: the Marine Rifle squad that's behind the power curve on this.
Speaker 3: I imagine you could probably even say Jaysack and my old
Speaker 3: group Special Activities needs to needs to take suck up
Speaker 3: every piece lesson learned that's going on in Ukrain right
Speaker 3: now and and start figuring out how to use it,
Speaker 3: use it in practical applications preparing now.
Speaker 6: Yeah, the aviation geek in me took this operation and
Speaker 6: put it into terms that of the US, say thirty
Speaker 6: years ago, even back in your Vietnam and an operation
Speaker 6: of this sort, the aircraft that would have had to
Speaker 6: have been used a manned aircraft. It's astounding that they
Speaker 6: were able to do this and not just do this.
Speaker 6: But the videos that I'm seeing are from a reconnaissance
Speaker 6: drone that flew over during and after the attack and
Speaker 6: untouched and was able to get over these airfields take
Speaker 6: close up pictures of the damage. Actually, I saw one
Speaker 6: where it was flying right behind one of the attack
Speaker 6: drones and watched it climb up and then dive right into,
Speaker 6: as Andy said, the wing root of an aircraft and
Speaker 6: destroy it. And then it just flew right over and
Speaker 6: kept recording. So the amount of manned aircraft that would
Speaker 6: have taken is its astounding that they were able to
Speaker 6: pull this off.
Speaker 2: Okay, guys, so I can't verify this, but I got
Speaker 2: a message in odds toy so three hundred so as
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty small attack drones and three hundred
Speaker 2: munitions right and one hundred and sixteen drones were launched this.
Speaker 2: The drones were controlled via Russian Russian telecommunications networks with
Speaker 2: automated guidance systems. So I'm gonna need someone to explain
Speaker 2: that a little memoir to me, because they've got automated
Speaker 2: guidance systems. I suppose that as a backup, can you,
Speaker 2: I mean tunneling. So I suppose they tunneled into Russian
Speaker 2: telecommunications networks to control these things. I mean, that's incredible,
Speaker 2: that's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean it totally beats having you know,
Speaker 1: twelve or so guys on the ground. We're controlling these
Speaker 1: that are within twenty kilometers of what's going on, and.
Speaker 2: I suppose you know what. Another point that this really
Speaker 2: has emphasized is how I mean there are layers. I'm
Speaker 2: sure there will of course be an integrated air defense
Speaker 2: system for every single one of those bases, right, and
Speaker 2: layers of TAY air defense I mean SAM systems EW
Speaker 2: and of course you know patrols. And yet there was
Speaker 2: no early warning, or if there was, it was too late,
Speaker 2: and we're not seeing anything any reports so many of
Speaker 2: these things being shot down, which just shows what a
Speaker 2: difficult task it is when you've got a small quad
Speaker 2: copter or multiple small quad copters that can simply overwhelm
Speaker 2: the system like that, they're operating at a low altitude
Speaker 2: and they're operating a short distance. You know, there's just
Speaker 2: no IADS isn't configured, No I adds is configured to
Speaker 2: defend against that kind of threat. But I love I
Speaker 2: love the fact that they do that trucks were used
Speaker 2: for this, commercial trucks and it's so effective, and I
Speaker 2: do you know, I'm not going to bang on about
Speaker 2: aircraft carriers again, but it really is. I mean, it
Speaker 2: really is a star contrast and illustrates for us what
Speaker 2: twenty first century war fash should look like and it
Speaker 2: doesn't look anything like what we're doing.
Speaker 6: And also the ripple effect of this, the mistrust that
Speaker 6: this is going to sow inside of Russia. I mean,
Speaker 6: any truck on the road now could be carrying these things,
Speaker 6: so every driver is under scrutiny. Uh, the people who,
Speaker 6: as you just pointed out, Andy, who are in charge
Speaker 6: of air defense, they're under scrutiny all this stuff. So
Speaker 6: though it's a the ripple effect is a big win
Speaker 6: for the Ukrainian So I'm gonna.
Speaker 3: Have to jump in four minutes, all right, ABC breaking in.
Speaker 2: We've told you before about your priorities. Yeah, my god, show.
Speaker 3: You that this is usually don't don't do this on
Speaker 3: the weekend.
Speaker 1: So this is I think, Yeah, this is a hot topic. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a big deal. Yeah, maybe know that we know.
Speaker 2: What we need to get out. We need to get
Speaker 2: our version out first before making will.
Speaker 1: I'll get this out right away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're paying more.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 3: We had more to talk about too, but this is
Speaker 3: kind of dominated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got Gaza going on.
Speaker 3: We got the ceasefire rejection by Hamas. By the way,
Speaker 3: if I could put a plug in, no media station
Speaker 3: should put out that Hamas accepted a ceasefire if they
Speaker 3: change the terms. It's just common sense, right. You can't
Speaker 3: say I accept your offer to buy a car when
Speaker 3: you were trying to sell it for five thousand, and
Speaker 3: I come back and say I'll buy it for three thousand.
Speaker 3: It's a rejection of the offer. And then it gets
Speaker 3: everybody all excited for good reason because we'd all like
Speaker 3: to see a seasfire, but all and then they have
Speaker 3: to go, well, it's not really an accepted They said
Speaker 3: that the war has to end in the idea has
Speaker 3: to withdraw. So I put a I would ask all media,
Speaker 3: not just the US, not do that. Explain that they
Speaker 3: rejected the offer.
Speaker 1: That's the problem. They want to get there. They want
Speaker 1: to get their headline out first and their tweet out first.
Speaker 1: That's all they really give a shit about.
Speaker 2: Hey, Dian, I'm sending you something that you should put
Speaker 2: in in the chat when we put this out. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's some crazy video here, but check out when I
Speaker 2: just sent you. Tell me if you think that's real.
Speaker 2: I mean it apparently it is, but it just looks insane. No,
Speaker 2: it can't be real. But it's a picture of drones
Speaker 2: actually launching from the truck.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I mean it's we make sure. Let me
Speaker 1: make sure this is the right tweet you sent me. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's funny. You're funny, Andy. I will put this in there.
Speaker 1: Andy doing a little shit talking.
Speaker 6: Mm hmm.
Speaker 1: That's hilarious. All right, guys, get out of here. Have
Speaker 1: a happy Sunday everybody as well. Obviously we'll have more
Speaker 1: information on this as in the next couple of days.
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll do something on Wednesday Thursday updating this of course.
Speaker 1: Check out all the guys' links. They're all in the
Speaker 1: description Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse to help support
Speaker 1: the show. You get both the Teamhouse and I was
Speaker 1: on Geopolitics ad free and Early. Yeah. Thanks, guys, this
Speaker 1: is great.
Speaker 2: Thank his Take care the best fellas.
Speaker 4: Hey, guys, it's Jack.
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