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<v Speaker 1>I think the most remarkable thing that we do have

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<v Speaker 1>today is the Internet and access to all the world's

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<v Speaker 1>information from anywhere, So that that's having a supercomputer in

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<v Speaker 1>your pocket is I think something people wouldn't have predicted,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, back to the future, So that that's the

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<v Speaker 1>that's the biggest thing, and probably what they would be

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<v Speaker 1>most surprised at is that we haven't progressed more in space.

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<v Speaker 1>So the people would have expected, i think, to have

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<v Speaker 1>a space hotel impact ots Clark and one, yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>The twenty ten was really crazy, you know, space advancement,

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<v Speaker 1>so it would like be going to Jupiter and that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of thing. So that that's probably like the most

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<v Speaker 1>surprising thing. Like particularly if you go back even further,

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<v Speaker 1>if you say, in sixty nine when people first landed

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<v Speaker 1>on the Moon, if you'd ask people, if you'd asked

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<v Speaker 1>the public, what what would the situation be in twenty fifteen,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they would imagine that where we would have

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<v Speaker 1>a base on the Moon, a base on Mars, and

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<v Speaker 1>be you know, all over the Solar system by now

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably Vegas.

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<v Speaker 2>What happened?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, is there any pattern even sense for where

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<v Speaker 3>our dreams are and science fiction, realities drift from reality

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<v Speaker 3>and where they are reality is there is there some

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<v Speaker 3>reason you think, like because we have dreams today of

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<v Speaker 3>where that you know that we're going to have these

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<v Speaker 3>Mars colonies in their future And yeah, well unless something

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<v Speaker 3>jumps to mind, let me let me I have a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch of questions by the way, from the audience as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Here I want to I want to move to something

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<v Speaker 2>a little more current as we move forward in time.

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<v Speaker 3>Twenty years ago when we first met, you were starting

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<v Speaker 3>your first internet company of two, the one before PayPal,

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<v Speaker 3>zip too, And I know that in your youth.

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<v Speaker 2>You envisioned a variety of industries that needed to change.

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<v Speaker 3>When you were pursuing your first one, did you imagine

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<v Speaker 3>you would get to the next one and the next

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<v Speaker 3>one or no?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean to when in college, just thought, well, what

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<v Speaker 1>are the things that I'd most likely to affect the

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<v Speaker 1>future of humanity just in you know, at a macro level,

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<v Speaker 1>And it just seemed like it would be like the

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<v Speaker 1>Internet and sustainable energy making like multiplanetary and then genetics

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<v Speaker 1>and AI and I thought the first three he worked

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<v Speaker 1>on those that were like almost suddenly going to be good,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the last two a little more dodgy.

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<v Speaker 2>In terms of the net benefit. Yeah, and for the double.

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<v Speaker 4>Edged sword, and you're not sure which edge is the worse.

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<v Speaker 3>Interesting, So it would it seems like begging the question,

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<v Speaker 3>are genetics and AI the ones that are ripe for

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<v Speaker 3>students today they be thinking about as they look.

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<v Speaker 4>They are.

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<v Speaker 1>My cousin of your younger cousin who's just finishing up

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<v Speaker 1>sort of physics and computer science degree. Actually Berkeley, we

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<v Speaker 1>know and and he's uh, he says, everyone there is

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<v Speaker 1>in the computer science department is working on AI. So

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we're going to see some crazy

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<v Speaker 1>breakthroughs in the next few years on that front.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to come back to that later as we

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<v Speaker 3>look more to your vision of the future, as you

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<v Speaker 3>think back though to your younger self or you know,

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<v Speaker 3>many of the people in the audience are themselves college

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<v Speaker 3>students and either undergrad or grad programs, and are thinking

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<v Speaker 3>about the world they're entering it. I'm curious this maybe

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<v Speaker 3>an odd question, but one that I find fascinating as

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<v Speaker 3>you think here today back to your younger self, is

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<v Speaker 3>there any advice you wish you could have given your

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<v Speaker 3>younger self in with hindsight given what you know now.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean I give like a lot of advice,

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<v Speaker 2>a bunch of things like that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I gotcha, But it's just in terms of how

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<v Speaker 3>to think about a life trajectory perhaps, or how to

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<v Speaker 3>pursue your passions.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm reagonally happy with how things turned out, so it's like.

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<v Speaker 4>Not trouble.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's a good point, though, I.

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<v Speaker 4>Don't think if there's anything, we'll let you.

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<v Speaker 2>If something else to mind, let me know, but let me.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean apart from the obvious, like just telling telling

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<v Speaker 1>my younger self exactly how the future will unfold, which

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<v Speaker 1>is but that that you know, wouldn't be that that's

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<v Speaker 1>not exactly a buy or has.

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<v Speaker 2>Been capsulated into non correctly more being wisdom.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, exactly like wisdom. I mean, I mean there's

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<v Speaker 1>there's there's a lot of things. I mean it's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of I mean certainly, yeah, I mean, you know, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>listen more to critical feedback.

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<v Speaker 4>M Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, like a lot of things I learned in

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<v Speaker 1>college actually were pretty helpful. I mean that, I the

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<v Speaker 1>physics approach to thinking is very good, like the first principles.

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<v Speaker 2>Approach, and you applied that broadly yeah, played.

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<v Speaker 1>Applying the first principles approached to thinking is I think

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<v Speaker 1>a good way to figure out a counterintuitive situations. And yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I thought that that was that was really a helpful

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<v Speaker 1>thing to learn.

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<v Speaker 2>That's good.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, sorry, no, no, I feel free to jump in

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<v Speaker 3>because I don't know how i'd answer that question.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, yeah, what would you do? What would you

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<v Speaker 4>tell your younger sel.

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<v Speaker 2>It'll be all right, you weren't as darky as you think.

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<v Speaker 2>Advice like that, nothing's really too actionable, don't worry about it.

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<v Speaker 3>What just don't be so insecure about anything you're insecure

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<v Speaker 3>about it. Yeah, I would probably the advice to myself,

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<v Speaker 3>but let's move on. I'm not used to thinking about me,

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<v Speaker 3>so you know, I may be roughly over generalizing here,

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<v Speaker 3>but it seems to me that there's some often a

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<v Speaker 3>trigger problem that generates in your mind a great solution

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<v Speaker 3>for when you come up with a new companies. So,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, when trying to negotiate with the Russians for

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<v Speaker 3>launch capacity, the aha that at least you just build

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<v Speaker 3>a better rocket to solve this problem comes forth, or

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<v Speaker 3>when you deal with the commute on the floor or

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<v Speaker 3>fire or whatever in la, it's like, my god, what

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<v Speaker 3>is wrong with mass transit and perhaps hyperloop?

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<v Speaker 2>And then you know, with.

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<v Speaker 3>A variety of ideas, there seems to be some trigger

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<v Speaker 3>something that's broken in the world that and you have

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<v Speaker 3>the idea of how to fix it.

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<v Speaker 2>And I guess what I'm curious about is not how.

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<v Speaker 3>You've picked the areas of interest in the solutions, but

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<v Speaker 3>how have you decided what not to fix? In other words,

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<v Speaker 3>there's many things that need fixing in the world, and

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<v Speaker 3>students here probably can think of a long list, many

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<v Speaker 3>of which you could probably imagine solutions to using the

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<v Speaker 3>physics first principle approach. But has there been any framework

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<v Speaker 3>or idea if you've used to filter out what you

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<v Speaker 3>don't do, what you don't pursue.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, well if sort of followed what I

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<v Speaker 1>did initially was you know, well, you go back to

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<v Speaker 1>like college times.

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<v Speaker 4>I was working on.

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<v Speaker 1>Energy storage technologies for electric vehicles, and that's what I

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<v Speaker 1>was going to pursue at Stafford actually was work on

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<v Speaker 1>like advanced capacitors and batteries to improve the energy density

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<v Speaker 1>for electric vehicles. And then the Internet was kind of happening.

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<v Speaker 1>It was clear like the Internet was happening like back

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<v Speaker 1>in like ninety four ninety five, and I wasn't sure

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<v Speaker 1>if what I worked on in the PhD would actually

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<v Speaker 1>be useful.

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<v Speaker 2>So I was like, I was really concerned that if

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<v Speaker 2>ice why timing or what was your intuition?

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<v Speaker 1>Meaning I think like it could be academically useful, but

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<v Speaker 1>not practically useful, Like I think it could result in

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<v Speaker 1>a PhD and adding some leaf to the tree of knowledge,

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<v Speaker 1>but then then discovering that, well, it's not really going

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<v Speaker 1>to going to matter, Like that's you know, is it

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<v Speaker 1>is it going to be a good enough thing to

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<v Speaker 1>actually be used in electric vehicle?

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<v Speaker 4>I wasn't sure.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, so it was like I was uncertain as

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<v Speaker 1>to whether success was one of the possible outcomes, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Like I thought maybe it was, but it wasn't sure.

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<v Speaker 1>And and then I thought, well, if I watched the

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<v Speaker 1>Internet get built while I'm doing this, that that that

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<v Speaker 1>would be really frustrating.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a sense of that eminent timing that like that

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<v Speaker 3>was the time for the Internet, and maybe yeah, the

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<v Speaker 3>other stuff could wait or be on the back.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what we want to be your mind? Was it

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<v Speaker 2>always there is like one day I'll get back to

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<v Speaker 2>that or was it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I thought probably i'd get back to it, and

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<v Speaker 1>it did end up doing that. But yeah, I thought

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the the Internet was happening, it like really

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<v Speaker 1>taking off all the most people weren't aware of it

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<v Speaker 1>in ninety five, and and so I figured, like electric

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<v Speaker 1>vehicle technology, energy, story of technology will there'll be some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of natural progression in that, and I could come

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<v Speaker 1>back to it later. But the Internet, you know, it

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<v Speaker 1>was it was really that was the moment to really

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<v Speaker 1>do something. Although in ninety five it wasn't obvious that

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<v Speaker 1>you could actually make any money on the Internet. This

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<v Speaker 1>was like nobody until Netscape went public. I think at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of ninety five, nobody even thought there was

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<v Speaker 1>like you could make a valuable company on the Internet.

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<v Speaker 2>It wasn't as obvious as it seems now.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, like now it seems really obvious, but back then

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<v Speaker 1>it was not at all. So it was really from

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<v Speaker 1>the perspective of it wasn't like, oh, I want to

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<v Speaker 1>make a bunch of money. It was actually from it's

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<v Speaker 1>like I want to just be a part of fooling

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<v Speaker 1>this thing that I thought was like like a nervous system.

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<v Speaker 1>It was like previously people had communicated effectively by osmosis,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, you'd have like basically physically, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>connect with somebody to really communicate. You're like a letter,

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<v Speaker 1>like you said, letters like that on paper. And with

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<v Speaker 1>the Internet, anyone who had a connection anywhere in the

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<v Speaker 1>world would have access to all the world's information, just

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<v Speaker 1>like sort of a nervous system in a like. So

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<v Speaker 1>humanity was effectively becoming a super organism and qualitatively different

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<v Speaker 1>than what it had been before, and so I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to be part of that. And yeah, so but but

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<v Speaker 1>initially the goal was just to make enough money to

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<v Speaker 1>pay the rent. It wasn't, you know, to do anything

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<v Speaker 1>beyond that.

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<v Speaker 3>And then it's many you know that much of that

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<v Speaker 3>capital then got ploid back into your next businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>Right right exactly exactly, so then they and then the Internet.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also helpful because it's anything to do with software

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<v Speaker 1>is a low capital endeavor. So I didn't have any

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<v Speaker 1>money and just had a bunch of student dad, and

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<v Speaker 1>so there's but software you can just write like by yourself,

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<v Speaker 1>and you don't need a lot of atoms, like you

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<v Speaker 1>don't need a lot of tooling and equipment, and so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not capital intensive. So the ability to start a

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<v Speaker 1>company if it's software related and it's the first company,

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<v Speaker 1>is much much easier.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, And it seems obvious now that of course the

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<v Speaker 3>easier place to start, and then as you gained more

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<v Speaker 3>of a personal reputation and had more personal capitalis some marmy.

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<v Speaker 3>And I know SpaceX was almost what was entirely funded

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<v Speaker 3>by Elon for its first period, partially from you know,

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<v Speaker 3>and in an era when others probably wouldn't have funded

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<v Speaker 3>it in those arrives to days.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, actually, I mean with the precursor to to SpaceX

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<v Speaker 1>was not the idea wasn't really to create a company.

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<v Speaker 1>It was it was to try to figure out why

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<v Speaker 1>we hadn't gone sent people to Mars. So so we

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<v Speaker 1>went from sept to to PayPal and then and then

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<v Speaker 1>going from paypals. So the next thing, I was sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thinking, well, it is some way to reignite the

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<v Speaker 1>dream of Apollo. And I thought, well, it was maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a question of like we'd lost the will to explore it.

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<v Speaker 1>But I actually think that that that my original premise

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<v Speaker 1>was wrong. We had not lost the will to explore,

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<v Speaker 1>but people did not think there was a way, and

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<v Speaker 1>people don't think there's away. Then they just they won't

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<v Speaker 1>bash their head against the wall continuously. They'll you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they'll sort of give up. So but in the beginning,

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<v Speaker 1>I thought it was a question of will, so that

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<v Speaker 1>if we can send a small greenhouse to the surface

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<v Speaker 1>of Mars, and you could, and you have seeds and

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<v Speaker 1>nutrients l and you hydrated upon landing, and then you'd

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<v Speaker 1>have this little greenhouse on the surface of Mars. And

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<v Speaker 1>people tend to respond to precedence and superlatives. Nless will

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<v Speaker 1>be the first life on Mars as far as we knew,

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<v Speaker 1>whetherst that life's ever traveled. You have this great shot

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<v Speaker 1>of green plants on a red background, and I thought,

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<v Speaker 1>well that maybe that would get people excited about sending

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<v Speaker 1>people to Mars.

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<v Speaker 3>So the headlines were clear in your mind. Once you

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<v Speaker 3>had success on what that would lead to catalyzed action.

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<v Speaker 1>And actually the goal was to get the public excited

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<v Speaker 1>about that and get NASA's budget increased, so that that

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<v Speaker 1>was actually the original goal. And so I went to

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<v Speaker 1>Russia to try to buy some ICBMs in two thousand one.

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<v Speaker 1>It's an interesting experience.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of vodg, Yeah, a lot of vodka yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>It's crazy, and I couldn't afford the regular rockets like

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<v Speaker 1>the Boeing and luckhead rockets are too expensive and still are, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>very expensive.

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<v Speaker 2>That's sorry, Wait me jump in here for a second.

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<v Speaker 3>Because the anecdote you brought up of wanting to change

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<v Speaker 3>government policy and inspire the world to have a MARS

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<v Speaker 3>program if you will, whether it's popular uprising or or

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<v Speaker 3>space programs at the government level, I think it's a

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<v Speaker 3>fascinating anecdote because in a sense what you were saying

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<v Speaker 3>is I, as an individual, want to start an entity,

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<v Speaker 3>business or otherwise that will catalyze change even beyond the company.

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<v Speaker 2>Level or the industry level. And I see apparallel in other.

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<v Speaker 3>Initiatives you've taken on in that if you look at

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<v Speaker 3>the goal of Tesla under your leadership, it is to

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<v Speaker 3>share the transition to all vehicles being electric, not just

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<v Speaker 3>the cars that currently are produced by Tesla, and with

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<v Speaker 3>Powerwall and Solar City, arguably the description is one of

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<v Speaker 3>ushering in a wholesale shift to renewable energy. Many of

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<v Speaker 3>the solutions required wouldn't be provided by the companies you're starting,

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<v Speaker 3>and so as I, as I deal in entrepreneurship, as

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<v Speaker 3>a venture capitalist every day we see this incredible scope

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<v Speaker 3>of ambition here that is breathtaking, like change the world

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<v Speaker 3>with Steve Jobs and others talk about it in a company,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe shifting an industry, but we're talking about shifting like

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<v Speaker 3>the entire zeitgeist of the world in a sense, and

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<v Speaker 3>maybe eventually other worlds.

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<v Speaker 2>So my question is do you.

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<v Speaker 3>Start always in your mind with that as a like

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<v Speaker 3>I said, like, where's the starting point?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it? Okay?

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<v Speaker 3>I see this arc of a story like the Mars example,

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<v Speaker 3>or renewable energy, and then do you pull back to

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<v Speaker 3>where's the best product to get it unstuck?

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<v Speaker 2>Like why isn't this happening? And like if I solve

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<v Speaker 2>that problem then it unlocks value. How does that happen

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<v Speaker 2>in your mind?

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<v Speaker 4>Sure?

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<v Speaker 1>So, I mean I should say, like when when we

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<v Speaker 1>started SpaceX and Tesla, I mean I really thought the

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<v Speaker 1>probability of success was very low. I mean it wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>like I think, oh, we'll definitely be successful. I thought

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<v Speaker 1>I thought we'd be like maybe ten percent likely. Well yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and in the case, we came very close to both

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<v Speaker 1>companies not succeeding. In two thousand and eight, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we had the we'd had three failures of the SpaceX rocket,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're zero for three. We had the crazy financial recession,

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<v Speaker 1>like the Great Recession, the Tesla financing round of falling

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<v Speaker 1>apart because like pretty hard to raise money for.

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<v Speaker 4>The startup car company.

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<v Speaker 1>If GM and christ are going bankrupt, like it's partly

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<v Speaker 1>for the upside, Yeah, it's that was a tricky one.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, unfortunately, at the end of two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and eight, the fourth launch which was that was the

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<v Speaker 1>last launch we had money for worked for SpaceX and

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<v Speaker 1>and then we closed the Tesla finance ground is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas Eve two thousand and eight, last hour of the

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<v Speaker 1>last day that it was possible.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, thanks to you for those that don't know, the

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<v Speaker 3>most extraordinary act of entrepreneurial zeal and commitment I've ever

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<v Speaker 3>seen where Elon personally saved Tesla in those hours, like

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<v Speaker 3>when no one else would write a check, he spoke

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<v Speaker 3>for it all and that flipped the mentality from fear

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<v Speaker 3>to greed and everyone joined the bandwagon and everything changed

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<v Speaker 3>from you know, divoting into the ground to success. But

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<v Speaker 3>you were willing to go like net negative personally of

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<v Speaker 3>isn't that your net worth? And it's it's a remarkable story.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks for supporting. By the way, those much appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 2>We were happy to fall right behind in line. But

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<v Speaker 2>it was all him.

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<v Speaker 3>So I guess on this this idea though the big picture,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm curious in the way I heard you just now

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<v Speaker 3>describe the greenhouse and the headlines is interesting. Do the

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<v Speaker 3>marketing headlines flash through your mind as you introduce new

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<v Speaker 3>products that are a step to a much grander vision.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm curious because it seems like it has two purposes.

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<v Speaker 3>Like getting employees, customers, everyone really gung ho about the vision,

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<v Speaker 3>but it also makes it larger than life in so

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<v Speaker 3>many ways.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, if you're trying to convince the public

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<v Speaker 1>to do something, you have to say, Okay, how's this

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<v Speaker 1>going to read?

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<v Speaker 4>And what message are we going to try to convey?

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<v Speaker 4>What will people respond to?

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<v Speaker 1>What would I respond to if I was, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of an objective member of the public, And so

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's really you know, if if you're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>change people's minds or get people fired up about something,

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<v Speaker 1>then you got to think, Okay, what what's that message?

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<v Speaker 1>What's going to get them really excited?

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<v Speaker 3>And that's really good advice, by the way, for all

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<v Speaker 3>the engineering students here, as I was a one as well.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm curious there's as an adjunct sometimes to these grand

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<v Speaker 3>visions like making humanity a multiplanetary species, or shifting us

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<v Speaker 3>to renewable energy, or making all the equals electric, that

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<v Speaker 3>has a purpose driven element to it. There's a higher

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<v Speaker 3>calling than the quarterly bottom line. In fact, there was

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<v Speaker 3>a Tesla quarterly report I remember famously where the opening,

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<v Speaker 3>the literally opening line was, while profits are not a

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<v Speaker 3>priority common you know, nevertheless.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, And I was struck by it at first, and

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<v Speaker 2>it did occur.

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<v Speaker 3>To me that it's not like a miss some sort

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<v Speaker 3>of misdirected fiduciary question. To me, it seems like, how

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<v Speaker 3>could you lead an industry transition if your business model

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<v Speaker 3>was worse than what's already there, Meaning like if you

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<v Speaker 3>weren't more profitable in the long term and a better business,

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<v Speaker 3>why would anyone shift?

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<v Speaker 2>Right? So it almost seems like, look, the right purpose profits.

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<v Speaker 1>Follow, Yeah, well, if if your makeup if the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if the output is more valuable than the inputs, which

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<v Speaker 1>is really that's that's that's profit, Like the output is

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<v Speaker 1>more valuable in the input that that says you're have

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<v Speaker 1>a useful company. So now in a high growth scenario

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<v Speaker 1>you have a lot more inputs for future outputs, so

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<v Speaker 1>that you have negative cash flow and lack of profitability

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<v Speaker 1>and which we currently have a tesla. But in the

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<v Speaker 1>long term, of course that has to be that that

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<v Speaker 1>has to be fixed, that they can't be negative cashlow

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<v Speaker 1>in long term and that there needs to be a

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<v Speaker 1>net positive output, which is sort of profits in the

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<v Speaker 1>long term. But in the short term when this hyprowth

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<v Speaker 1>that doesn't it isn't the most sensible thing.

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<v Speaker 3>And then there's also related things like open sourcing, patents

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<v Speaker 3>and acts that to me relate to the purpose.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's let the whole lot of industry do this.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I'm curious, what do you see from your

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<v Speaker 3>mantage point as the benefits of a purpose DRITN company,

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<v Speaker 3>Meaning when you have this thing that every employee and

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<v Speaker 3>customer knows is the purpose of the company, how do

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<v Speaker 3>you see that flowing through to benefits for the company?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think.

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<v Speaker 1>I think having a purpose suddenly is going to attract

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<v Speaker 1>the very best talent in the world, because if people

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<v Speaker 1>can if there's something that's intrinsically enjoyable and the francial

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<v Speaker 1>awards are good. But then also it's something that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to genuinely change the world, then that's I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty powerful motivator. And but I don't think like

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<v Speaker 1>everything needs to change the world, you know, I mean honestly,

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<v Speaker 1>like there's lots of like useful things that people do,

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<v Speaker 1>and I mean I think really it should be like

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<v Speaker 1>a usefulness optimization, like just say, like, is what I'm

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<v Speaker 1>doing as useful as it could be?

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<v Speaker 2>You're talking about the goal of an organization or in general.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and you know, just even if something isn't changing

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<v Speaker 1>the world, if it's making people's lives better, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's great. And you know, if even if something

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<v Speaker 1>is like making only people's lives only slightly better, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's a large number of people, think kind of like

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<v Speaker 1>the area under the curve sure is quite good?

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<v Speaker 3>Is that mathematical first principles appointing utility and number exactly?

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<v Speaker 1>Like I mean, because one can say, is like some

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<v Speaker 1>app really making people's life better, But if it's affecting

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people, even in a small way, then yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of area is good.

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<v Speaker 3>Interesting, So let's shift gears a little bit, since it

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<v Speaker 3>is future fest looking to the future, right, we started

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<v Speaker 3>thirty years in the past, but the future keeps accelerating.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's maybe look twenty years in the future for

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<v Speaker 3>an equivalent leap. Arguably five years in the future, it

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<v Speaker 3>might be equivalent to the past thirty but let's say

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<v Speaker 3>twenty So the year twenty thirty five. What does the

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<v Speaker 3>future look like? As far as you can tell, what

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<v Speaker 3>would you yeah, twenty thirty five, Yeah, twenty years.

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<v Speaker 1>It's always really tricky to predict the future. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>some of it's pretty obvious, like computing power is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be just crazy. The big change is the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of computing power, not so much the sort of circuit density,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the Moslaw thing. But if you if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at say, what is the actual you know, dollars

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<v Speaker 1>per you know, per instruction and that that is draw

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that that that cost is dropping exponentially if

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<v Speaker 1>you think about it, like like if you're making a computer,

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<v Speaker 1>just you're rearranging silicon and copper, you know, so on

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<v Speaker 1>a on a little chip and once the capital cost

427
00:22:25.519 --> 00:22:29.640
<v Speaker 1>of the development and the chip plant is paid for,

428
00:22:31.000 --> 00:22:33.279
<v Speaker 1>the act I mean, the module cost of a chip

429
00:22:33.359 --> 00:22:38.279
<v Speaker 1>is very very tiny. So I think we'll see massively

430
00:22:38.400 --> 00:22:43.759
<v Speaker 1>parallel computers and computing power and storage being you know,

431
00:22:43.839 --> 00:22:45.920
<v Speaker 1>as really as much as you want.

432
00:22:47.519 --> 00:22:49.599
<v Speaker 3>And it's interesting I to start with that, like if

433
00:22:49.640 --> 00:22:51.640
<v Speaker 3>I I don't know what else to predict, but as

434
00:22:51.640 --> 00:22:54.200
<v Speaker 3>a foundation, for sure, this seems like the safest starting

435
00:22:54.519 --> 00:22:57.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, premise. But then what does that ripple through

436
00:22:57.359 --> 00:22:59.559
<v Speaker 3>to and fields like genetics in an EE which you

437
00:22:59.599 --> 00:23:03.160
<v Speaker 3>mentioned tneus driving, space related.

438
00:23:02.880 --> 00:23:08.359
<v Speaker 1>Topics, I mean just ubiquitous computing everywhere. I think like

439
00:23:08.519 --> 00:23:11.839
<v Speaker 1>AI is going to be incredibly sophisticated in twenty years.

440
00:23:13.680 --> 00:23:17.039
<v Speaker 4>The first like, it seems to be accelerating.

441
00:23:17.160 --> 00:23:20.279
<v Speaker 1>And the tricky thing about predicting things when there's an

442
00:23:20.319 --> 00:23:23.000
<v Speaker 1>exponential is that an exponential looks like it looks linear

443
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:28.039
<v Speaker 1>close up and and but it's actually it's not linear.

444
00:23:28.559 --> 00:23:35.160
<v Speaker 1>So and AI appears to be accelerating for what I

445
00:23:35.200 --> 00:23:37.160
<v Speaker 1>can see, and for.

446
00:23:37.279 --> 00:23:40.759
<v Speaker 3>That you look at autonomus driving and point AI is

447
00:23:40.839 --> 00:23:43.319
<v Speaker 3>like the series like functionality as your guidepost.

448
00:23:44.200 --> 00:23:45.680
<v Speaker 1>Well, I had a sort of debate about someone like

449
00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:49.319
<v Speaker 1>is AI accelerating or not? And the like he was saying, well,

450
00:23:49.359 --> 00:23:52.359
<v Speaker 1>what's the y axis? You know, if if it's accelerating

451
00:23:53.480 --> 00:23:55.480
<v Speaker 1>your t on the X axis, But what's what's the

452
00:23:55.599 --> 00:23:56.000
<v Speaker 1>y axis?

453
00:23:56.119 --> 00:23:57.200
<v Speaker 4>Is it well thought about that?

454
00:23:57.279 --> 00:24:00.400
<v Speaker 1>I think you could have a recursive y axis, so

455
00:24:00.559 --> 00:24:04.640
<v Speaker 1>that if at any point in time your predictions for

456
00:24:04.720 --> 00:24:10.039
<v Speaker 1>AI are coming sooner or later, that that actually would

457
00:24:10.079 --> 00:24:12.680
<v Speaker 1>help define whether it's accelerating or not.

458
00:24:12.960 --> 00:24:16.279
<v Speaker 2>Whatever that access was. So you mentioned cursive access like, so.

459
00:24:16.599 --> 00:24:20.039
<v Speaker 1>If in any given year, if you find your predictions

460
00:24:20.319 --> 00:24:24.519
<v Speaker 1>are going further out or coming further or coming closer

461
00:24:24.599 --> 00:24:28.160
<v Speaker 1>in that that actually, you know, is one way to

462
00:24:28.240 --> 00:24:32.000
<v Speaker 1>think of acceleration because because otherwise, what's the what's the

463
00:24:32.079 --> 00:24:34.559
<v Speaker 1>qualitative a qualitative measure of AI?

464
00:24:35.359 --> 00:24:38.279
<v Speaker 2>I was saying, if giving technology is always twenty years

465
00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:39.079
<v Speaker 2>in the future, Yeah.

466
00:24:38.960 --> 00:24:40.960
<v Speaker 4>If if it's always twenty in the future, it's like

467
00:24:41.079 --> 00:24:41.839
<v Speaker 4>more logarithmic.

468
00:24:43.720 --> 00:24:46.279
<v Speaker 3>So I seem like it's one of the most fastly

469
00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:48.039
<v Speaker 3>accelerating things that you're aware of.

470
00:24:48.480 --> 00:24:52.319
<v Speaker 1>Yes, And I can certainly say that with with autonomous driving,

471
00:24:52.960 --> 00:24:56.759
<v Speaker 1>where you know, three years ago I thought it was

472
00:24:56.920 --> 00:24:59.839
<v Speaker 1>ten years away, and that two years ago I thought

473
00:24:59.839 --> 00:25:02.759
<v Speaker 1>it was five years away. Now I think it's three

474
00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:04.359
<v Speaker 1>years away or less than three years away.

475
00:25:04.640 --> 00:25:04.839
<v Speaker 4>Wow.

476
00:25:06.119 --> 00:25:10.079
<v Speaker 3>So when you say away like like like release to

477
00:25:10.160 --> 00:25:13.880
<v Speaker 3>market available for consumer adoption because as opposed to prototyping.

478
00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:16.160
<v Speaker 1>No, I mean like the like the technology works, there's

479
00:25:16.200 --> 00:25:18.920
<v Speaker 1>a sort of second question as to when regulators would

480
00:25:18.920 --> 00:25:22.039
<v Speaker 1>approve it. Yeah, yeah, but but like a love with

481
00:25:22.119 --> 00:25:26.839
<v Speaker 1>that the technology works in a technology works as a

482
00:25:26.920 --> 00:25:31.039
<v Speaker 1>general solution, so like time was driving like based across anywhere, so.

483
00:25:31.079 --> 00:25:33.480
<v Speaker 2>It could be sooner for point things like highway only.

484
00:25:33.599 --> 00:25:34.759
<v Speaker 4>Or I mean highway only.

485
00:25:34.839 --> 00:25:37.680
<v Speaker 1>We're already in public data with this a Tesla, so

486
00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:42.119
<v Speaker 1>we'll be hopefully in the next several weeks releasing two

487
00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:45.119
<v Speaker 1>to all of the cars that happen in the autopilot hardware,

488
00:25:45.160 --> 00:25:47.519
<v Speaker 1>which is all cars built like roughly the last twelve months.

489
00:25:47.920 --> 00:25:48.839
<v Speaker 2>Wow. Wow.

490
00:25:49.599 --> 00:25:52.240
<v Speaker 3>And so this seems like one of those things that

491
00:25:52.440 --> 00:25:55.559
<v Speaker 3>once you've experienced it, the inevitability of it becomes more apparent,

492
00:25:55.640 --> 00:25:57.440
<v Speaker 3>kind of like first time I sat in the electric vehicle,

493
00:25:58.119 --> 00:26:00.599
<v Speaker 3>it's just so clear, and same with a ton vehicles.

494
00:26:01.359 --> 00:26:04.599
<v Speaker 2>Do you think that will help persuade public opinion?

495
00:26:04.880 --> 00:26:08.519
<v Speaker 3>And like, like, the regulatory question is an interesting one

496
00:26:08.559 --> 00:26:11.480
<v Speaker 3>because a technology continues to accelerate, human nature doesn't, and

497
00:26:12.440 --> 00:26:16.240
<v Speaker 3>acceptance of change. I'm just not sure if there's like

498
00:26:16.359 --> 00:26:18.160
<v Speaker 3>as we look out in the future, should we assume

499
00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:20.720
<v Speaker 3>that no matter how fast something like more as Long accelerates,

500
00:26:20.759 --> 00:26:24.200
<v Speaker 3>there's always the counterbalancing force of human nature and habit.

501
00:26:26.519 --> 00:26:29.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean that's yeah. I think, yeah, there's always

502
00:26:29.960 --> 00:26:33.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be the sort of there's always going to

503
00:26:33.480 --> 00:26:36.880
<v Speaker 1>be human nature, and it's difficult to predict. And I think,

504
00:26:36.920 --> 00:26:39.480
<v Speaker 1>what what what that will how that will affect things?

505
00:26:41.359 --> 00:26:43.200
<v Speaker 1>But I mean, I'm not sure if I fully answer

506
00:26:43.200 --> 00:26:45.640
<v Speaker 1>your question. So in terms of what I think, twenty

507
00:26:47.400 --> 00:26:51.799
<v Speaker 1>so for sure, EU Biker's computing AI that's beyond anything

508
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:54.559
<v Speaker 1>like the public appreciates today.

509
00:26:55.880 --> 00:26:56.559
<v Speaker 4>I think we'll have.

510
00:26:58.039 --> 00:27:04.440
<v Speaker 1>Most of the new vehicles being produced being electric, and

511
00:27:04.640 --> 00:27:08.680
<v Speaker 1>we'll be probably have the super majority of energy being

512
00:27:08.759 --> 00:27:09.519
<v Speaker 1>produced being.

513
00:27:10.880 --> 00:27:11.480
<v Speaker 4>Sustainable.

514
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:13.839
<v Speaker 2>So I think I think we're on headed solar primarily

515
00:27:13.960 --> 00:27:14.960
<v Speaker 2>in your mirimarily solar.

516
00:27:15.160 --> 00:27:19.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And so I think those I think that those

517
00:27:19.039 --> 00:27:21.160
<v Speaker 1>are sort of some good things. Like I think we'll

518
00:27:21.200 --> 00:27:26.440
<v Speaker 1>be hopefully in a good path for sustainable energy. Sooner

519
00:27:26.519 --> 00:27:28.359
<v Speaker 1>is always better, But I think by twenty thirty five,

520
00:27:28.400 --> 00:27:34.039
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll be substantially like most of transport, most

521
00:27:34.079 --> 00:27:38.839
<v Speaker 1>of new energy being produced will be sustainable. Broadband everywhere,

522
00:27:39.480 --> 00:27:46.000
<v Speaker 1>broadband everywhere. Yeah, Mars colony and hopefully hopefully a small

523
00:27:46.160 --> 00:27:49.720
<v Speaker 1>base on Mars, a small city on Mars in twenty years. Yeah,

524
00:27:51.440 --> 00:27:57.319
<v Speaker 1>well okay by in town, village, hamlets.

525
00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:02.000
<v Speaker 2>I mean that's exciting. I mean that could get people

526
00:28:02.039 --> 00:28:03.039
<v Speaker 2>fired up about the future.

527
00:28:03.519 --> 00:28:06.200
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I do. I agree exactly. I think that.

528
00:28:08.680 --> 00:28:11.680
<v Speaker 1>The idea of being Mullifana species and getting out there

529
00:28:11.720 --> 00:28:15.119
<v Speaker 1>and exploring the stars is one of those really inspiring

530
00:28:15.240 --> 00:28:19.000
<v Speaker 1>exciting things. I mean, just as Apollo was incredibly inspiring

531
00:28:20.200 --> 00:28:22.799
<v Speaker 1>to everyone around the world, and even those I mean

532
00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:24.680
<v Speaker 1>only a very tiny number of people went there, but

533
00:28:25.240 --> 00:28:28.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean vicariously, we all went there. And I think

534
00:28:28.400 --> 00:28:31.319
<v Speaker 1>that's true of if we have a Mars space as well.

535
00:28:32.119 --> 00:28:34.400
<v Speaker 1>And it's very important that we have things that are

536
00:28:34.480 --> 00:28:37.240
<v Speaker 1>exciting and inspiring in the future, because otherwise wipe it

537
00:28:37.319 --> 00:28:38.880
<v Speaker 1>up in the morning, you know, it was just about

538
00:28:38.920 --> 00:28:40.440
<v Speaker 1>one sort of sad problem after another.

539
00:28:41.359 --> 00:28:42.880
<v Speaker 4>It's like life, Life's not worth living.

540
00:28:43.640 --> 00:28:45.720
<v Speaker 3>Are there any other things that excites you a lot

541
00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:52.079
<v Speaker 3>about the future beyond the multiplanetary species? Perhaps, AI hope

542
00:28:52.079 --> 00:28:54.559
<v Speaker 3>that may scare you as well as excite you. The

543
00:28:54.599 --> 00:28:57.480
<v Speaker 3>autonomous vehicles. Are there any other planks that you think

544
00:28:57.559 --> 00:28:59.480
<v Speaker 3>looking forward twenty years, like this is what I really

545
00:28:59.519 --> 00:29:00.160
<v Speaker 3>get excited that.

546
00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:02.599
<v Speaker 4>Well.

547
00:29:03.720 --> 00:29:06.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean so for sure, for sure Mars and sustainable transport,

548
00:29:06.480 --> 00:29:10.160
<v Speaker 1>like those items I think that are really any sustainable energy,

549
00:29:10.200 --> 00:29:15.559
<v Speaker 1>Those are I think really cool things. And I mean

550
00:29:15.599 --> 00:29:17.279
<v Speaker 1>in terms of getting excited about it, I mean it's

551
00:29:20.400 --> 00:29:24.200
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll probably start seeing like more like truly

552
00:29:24.319 --> 00:29:28.119
<v Speaker 1>Cybork activity like human brain inter like like with brain

553
00:29:28.200 --> 00:29:29.599
<v Speaker 1>for viewer interfaces.

554
00:29:30.599 --> 00:29:30.799
<v Speaker 4>Like that.

555
00:29:30.880 --> 00:29:33.680
<v Speaker 3>There's a longside the ais that are purely Yeah, I

556
00:29:33.759 --> 00:29:35.720
<v Speaker 3>think so it's the only way we can relate to

557
00:29:35.799 --> 00:29:37.240
<v Speaker 3>I think, you know, and they have a conversation.

558
00:29:38.519 --> 00:29:40.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there are amazing things happen like happening these

559
00:29:40.839 --> 00:29:43.240
<v Speaker 1>days like this. They've been able to figure out how

560
00:29:43.240 --> 00:29:47.680
<v Speaker 1>to do an artificial hippocampus in rats and monkeys and

561
00:29:48.599 --> 00:29:50.920
<v Speaker 1>and now they're looking at doing that.

562
00:29:51.119 --> 00:29:52.920
<v Speaker 4>To solve severe epilepsy.

563
00:29:53.880 --> 00:29:57.880
<v Speaker 1>About half of severe epilepsy cases originate in the hippocampus,

564
00:29:58.400 --> 00:30:03.400
<v Speaker 1>and by having sort of an artificially augmented hippocampus, they

565
00:30:03.400 --> 00:30:08.319
<v Speaker 1>can actually solve I believe, the severe epilepsy cases. So

566
00:30:08.559 --> 00:30:10.960
<v Speaker 1>it's like like wow, and you can you can read

567
00:30:11.079 --> 00:30:14.440
<v Speaker 1>and write information back to the chip from your brain

568
00:30:15.200 --> 00:30:19.400
<v Speaker 1>at the individual neuron level, like today, pretty exciting.

569
00:30:19.680 --> 00:30:22.359
<v Speaker 3>The whole field of biology and things inspired by biology

570
00:30:22.440 --> 00:30:25.920
<v Speaker 3>and the information systems biology fascinate me personally as a

571
00:30:26.079 --> 00:30:27.920
<v Speaker 3>as a computer science oriented person.

572
00:30:28.519 --> 00:30:31.559
<v Speaker 2>Before I go to the student questions, which I'm about

573
00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:32.400
<v Speaker 2>to do, there was.

574
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:35.480
<v Speaker 3>One last story I wanted to share that we experienced

575
00:30:35.519 --> 00:30:37.160
<v Speaker 3>together and ask your thoughts about it.

576
00:30:37.240 --> 00:30:41.400
<v Speaker 2>We were in Hawthorne, Texas when the grasshopper vehicle occur.

577
00:30:41.759 --> 00:30:45.440
<v Speaker 3>Happened to me, Yeah, spectacular explosion right in front of.

578
00:30:45.519 --> 00:30:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Us and right, and I like, I brought the SpaceX

579
00:30:48.920 --> 00:30:50.440
<v Speaker 1>board out to take a look at one of our

580
00:30:50.519 --> 00:30:52.559
<v Speaker 1>political takeover and lighting tests, and of course that's the

581
00:30:52.599 --> 00:30:53.319
<v Speaker 1>one that blows up.

582
00:30:57.079 --> 00:31:02.079
<v Speaker 2>Whoa, I mean the repercussions and walking.

583
00:31:03.400 --> 00:31:05.880
<v Speaker 4>Out a rud It's a rapid on schedule disassembly, that's.

584
00:31:05.839 --> 00:31:07.839
<v Speaker 3>Right, right, Yes, rapid unscheduled to the same when anyone

585
00:31:07.839 --> 00:31:10.559
<v Speaker 3>in the rockets are like a hobbyist or professionally knows

586
00:31:10.640 --> 00:31:13.279
<v Speaker 3>what that one is. Every component part is just sprewn

587
00:31:13.559 --> 00:31:16.319
<v Speaker 3>strewn across. And as we walked, one of the other

588
00:31:16.400 --> 00:31:19.000
<v Speaker 3>board members asked, and maybe they cheering up kind of

589
00:31:19.119 --> 00:31:21.359
<v Speaker 3>method with some quoting Bill Gates or somebody that said,

590
00:31:21.400 --> 00:31:23.720
<v Speaker 3>you know, if you haven't failed, then you're not learning,

591
00:31:23.839 --> 00:31:26.519
<v Speaker 3>or some paraphrase of the quote. And I remember your

592
00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:29.240
<v Speaker 3>reply and I have it written as a quote because

593
00:31:29.240 --> 00:31:30.359
<v Speaker 3>I want to put it on a placard.

594
00:31:30.839 --> 00:31:33.279
<v Speaker 2>Given the options, I prefer to learn from success, which

595
00:31:33.279 --> 00:31:36.680
<v Speaker 2>I think is a great comeback.

596
00:31:36.759 --> 00:31:38.920
<v Speaker 3>And so I guess I was curious, in general, what

597
00:31:38.960 --> 00:31:41.119
<v Speaker 3>do you think of the Silicon Valley mantra fail fast,

598
00:31:41.240 --> 00:31:44.400
<v Speaker 3>fail often, or as Esterradison says, always make new mistakes,

599
00:31:44.480 --> 00:31:47.680
<v Speaker 3>as if failure is the crucible of learning. Curious if

600
00:31:47.680 --> 00:31:49.359
<v Speaker 3>you had any further thoughts on that, and that maybe

601
00:31:49.400 --> 00:31:50.839
<v Speaker 3>off the tough comment you made out there.

602
00:31:51.920 --> 00:31:54.039
<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, there are there are many that sort

603
00:31:54.039 --> 00:31:55.799
<v Speaker 1>of I mean, I think it's sort of there's like

604
00:31:55.880 --> 00:31:58.920
<v Speaker 1>some entropic basis for this, like there are many more

605
00:31:58.960 --> 00:32:00.319
<v Speaker 1>ways to fail than just exceed.

606
00:32:00.880 --> 00:32:02.599
<v Speaker 4>So you, I mean you have to explore.

607
00:32:02.839 --> 00:32:05.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, particularly for a rocket, there's like a thousand

608
00:32:05.519 --> 00:32:06.960
<v Speaker 1>ways that think can fail and like one way it

609
00:32:07.000 --> 00:32:10.000
<v Speaker 1>can work, so you could you could have a lot

610
00:32:10.039 --> 00:32:12.440
<v Speaker 1>of rocket failures to explore all the ways in which

611
00:32:12.480 --> 00:32:15.519
<v Speaker 1>you could fail. So but I do think that one

612
00:32:15.720 --> 00:32:19.720
<v Speaker 1>great thing about Silicon Valley is that failure is not

613
00:32:19.799 --> 00:32:21.599
<v Speaker 1>a not a big stigma. So it's like if you

614
00:32:22.200 --> 00:32:25.039
<v Speaker 1>if you try hard and it doesn't work out, that's okay,

615
00:32:25.519 --> 00:32:29.759
<v Speaker 1>Like you can learn from that and you do another

616
00:32:29.799 --> 00:32:31.759
<v Speaker 1>company and it's not a big deal. And I think

617
00:32:31.799 --> 00:32:33.880
<v Speaker 1>that's that's really one of the great things about Silicon Valley.

618
00:32:34.519 --> 00:32:38.039
<v Speaker 3>Interesting do you also I'm curious to either on the well,

619
00:32:38.079 --> 00:32:40.160
<v Speaker 3>it seems to me that on the system design side,

620
00:32:40.240 --> 00:32:43.920
<v Speaker 3>you can accommodate a likely failure of subcomponents and and

621
00:32:44.119 --> 00:32:45.680
<v Speaker 3>so much of the elegance of let's say a Falcon

622
00:32:45.799 --> 00:32:48.880
<v Speaker 3>nine or a fucking nine heavy as an ultimate incarnation

623
00:32:49.039 --> 00:32:51.119
<v Speaker 3>of this vision of how the rocket should be built

624
00:32:51.200 --> 00:32:53.160
<v Speaker 3>to say, hey, parts will fail thing, but here's how

625
00:32:53.200 --> 00:32:54.039
<v Speaker 3>the system can succeed.

626
00:32:54.599 --> 00:32:55.839
<v Speaker 2>And I'm curious if.

627
00:32:55.759 --> 00:32:57.720
<v Speaker 3>There's any other thoughts along that how to how to

628
00:32:58.319 --> 00:33:02.640
<v Speaker 3>accommodate anticipated failure. And then also maybe inn like managerially,

629
00:33:02.720 --> 00:33:04.759
<v Speaker 3>is there ways that you motivate the team either in

630
00:33:04.839 --> 00:33:07.400
<v Speaker 3>advance of failure to coach them on how this is

631
00:33:07.480 --> 00:33:10.319
<v Speaker 3>going to happen, or in the aftermath of failure to

632
00:33:10.359 --> 00:33:12.400
<v Speaker 3>get them fired up to solve it and move forward

633
00:33:12.440 --> 00:33:15.039
<v Speaker 3>when it might be dark times, and like for them

634
00:33:15.039 --> 00:33:18.640
<v Speaker 3>when you notions like failure to launch, uh, you know,

635
00:33:18.799 --> 00:33:21.240
<v Speaker 3>exploding on the path. You know, there's all these it's

636
00:33:21.240 --> 00:33:23.839
<v Speaker 3>a very visual, it's public spectacle when you have a

637
00:33:23.880 --> 00:33:26.680
<v Speaker 3>setback in the rocket industry, and I'm curious how you

638
00:33:26.799 --> 00:33:27.680
<v Speaker 3>manage a round failure.

639
00:33:29.880 --> 00:33:32.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's I think it's it's quite quite painful

640
00:33:33.000 --> 00:33:39.880
<v Speaker 1>and difficult, honestly, and that it feels terrible. But yeah,

641
00:33:40.079 --> 00:33:42.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the the company is sort of looking to

642
00:33:43.880 --> 00:33:46.519
<v Speaker 1>you know, me too, you know, rally them, and so

643
00:33:46.880 --> 00:33:49.880
<v Speaker 1>I do. But I honestly feel super bad.

644
00:33:50.079 --> 00:33:53.720
<v Speaker 2>It's like a punch in the gut. Yeah, yeah, I remember.

645
00:33:53.720 --> 00:33:55.799
<v Speaker 2>It's almost like a time like the stages of grief.

646
00:33:55.839 --> 00:33:58.759
<v Speaker 3>I remember in Texas is kind of like sort of

647
00:33:58.839 --> 00:34:02.240
<v Speaker 3>denial and then this alally hits us at dinners.

648
00:34:02.359 --> 00:34:03.599
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, what's just happened?

649
00:34:04.039 --> 00:34:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean it's just I mean, it's particularly with rockets,

650
00:34:07.480 --> 00:34:12.199
<v Speaker 1>it's it's just a really like rockets are rockets. Space

651
00:34:12.320 --> 00:34:16.960
<v Speaker 1>is hard, and rockets tend to fail, unfortunately, and even

652
00:34:17.000 --> 00:34:18.679
<v Speaker 1>when you've got like a lot of really smart people

653
00:34:18.760 --> 00:34:21.559
<v Speaker 1>working super hard to minimize the pobolity of failure, it's

654
00:34:21.559 --> 00:34:25.480
<v Speaker 1>still still there and it's and it's you know, it's

655
00:34:25.559 --> 00:34:30.199
<v Speaker 1>it's quite significant, and you know, people have asked me like, well,

656
00:34:30.199 --> 00:34:33.719
<v Speaker 1>why why are rockets, you know, especially hard? And and

657
00:34:33.800 --> 00:34:36.360
<v Speaker 1>the you know part of it is like everything has

658
00:34:36.400 --> 00:34:38.960
<v Speaker 1>to work the first time, Like there's there's no you

659
00:34:39.000 --> 00:34:41.559
<v Speaker 1>can't do a recall, you can't patch it, it's got

660
00:34:41.679 --> 00:34:43.559
<v Speaker 1>it's like nine minutes to orbit or it's over.

661
00:34:45.039 --> 00:34:46.559
<v Speaker 4>And and then the.

662
00:34:48.079 --> 00:34:50.199
<v Speaker 1>You know, you can't you can never test the rocket

663
00:34:50.280 --> 00:34:52.760
<v Speaker 1>completely in the environment that it's actually going to experience.

664
00:34:53.519 --> 00:34:57.519
<v Speaker 1>You can't fully recreate something that's moving super fast in

665
00:34:57.599 --> 00:35:01.719
<v Speaker 1>a vacuum on of Earth, like you can only really

666
00:35:02.039 --> 00:35:03.239
<v Speaker 1>recreate that in space.

667
00:35:03.440 --> 00:35:06.000
<v Speaker 2>So the limit of the simulation tools. Is that a

668
00:35:06.039 --> 00:35:07.920
<v Speaker 2>limit of the simulation tools today? Or is yeah?

669
00:35:08.000 --> 00:35:08.440
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely?

670
00:35:09.679 --> 00:35:13.239
<v Speaker 1>If there's any error between the simulation and reality, and

671
00:35:13.239 --> 00:35:16.280
<v Speaker 1>there's always some amount of error, then that.

672
00:35:16.360 --> 00:35:19.920
<v Speaker 4>That can result in the failure. So it's a really

673
00:35:20.079 --> 00:35:21.119
<v Speaker 4>really tricky one. It's like.

674
00:35:23.159 --> 00:35:25.800
<v Speaker 1>In the software analogy, it would be like if you

675
00:35:25.880 --> 00:35:29.039
<v Speaker 1>had to write a whole bunch of software modules and

676
00:35:29.559 --> 00:35:33.480
<v Speaker 1>you can never run them together, and you can run

677
00:35:33.519 --> 00:35:36.000
<v Speaker 1>them on the target computer, like like when you're testing them,

678
00:35:36.199 --> 00:35:38.719
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to test them individually and not in

679
00:35:38.800 --> 00:35:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the actual computer that they're going to run on. Then

680
00:35:41.840 --> 00:35:44.280
<v Speaker 1>you put them, put all the modules together, run it

681
00:35:44.360 --> 00:35:47.440
<v Speaker 1>for the first time in a completely different or very

682
00:35:47.440 --> 00:35:49.840
<v Speaker 1>different computer, and it has to run with no bugs.

683
00:35:51.719 --> 00:35:52.480
<v Speaker 4>That is difficult.

684
00:35:53.119 --> 00:35:57.280
<v Speaker 3>The software analogies to rocket design are deep, the modular reuse.

685
00:35:57.360 --> 00:35:59.119
<v Speaker 3>I mean there's many of these, Like there's a little

686
00:35:59.119 --> 00:36:02.119
<v Speaker 3>soren' pamire. It's not like this is an aerospace engineer

687
00:36:03.280 --> 00:36:04.920
<v Speaker 3>by traditional training coming, but.

688
00:36:05.360 --> 00:36:07.039
<v Speaker 2>He is in fact radically changing the industry.

689
00:36:07.079 --> 00:36:11.079
<v Speaker 3>I think applying a CS perspective to industry after industry,

690
00:36:11.119 --> 00:36:13.360
<v Speaker 3>I'm like, how would how would you know computer scientist

691
00:36:13.440 --> 00:36:16.519
<v Speaker 3>or a physicist approach the problem, which oftentimes the solutions

692
00:36:16.559 --> 00:36:19.880
<v Speaker 3>very unlike the industry incumbents. There's there's a certain elegance

693
00:36:19.920 --> 00:36:22.800
<v Speaker 3>to it, at least from the outside. After I observer

694
00:36:22.960 --> 00:36:23.360
<v Speaker 3>like myself.

695
00:36:25.039 --> 00:36:27.320
<v Speaker 2>Let me switch, if I may, to some student questions

696
00:36:27.360 --> 00:36:29.559
<v Speaker 2>which will be completely in a different direction.

697
00:36:30.599 --> 00:36:33.239
<v Speaker 3>The first one comes from Nick zoo in an architectural

698
00:36:33.280 --> 00:36:35.960
<v Speaker 3>design coach or so to be switching more to the

699
00:36:36.039 --> 00:36:38.039
<v Speaker 3>other side of our brain for a moment, what do

700
00:36:38.119 --> 00:36:39.199
<v Speaker 3>you look for in design?

701
00:36:40.000 --> 00:36:40.559
<v Speaker 4>And related?

702
00:36:40.679 --> 00:36:45.519
<v Speaker 2>If you'd like, what do you look for in art? Design?

703
00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:49.639
<v Speaker 2>Might be more immediately elevent that's where he's coming from.

704
00:36:49.960 --> 00:37:00.400
<v Speaker 1>Sure, I mean I think there's I mean, you want

705
00:37:00.440 --> 00:37:03.039
<v Speaker 1>to make something beautiful. I mean that you want to

706
00:37:04.800 --> 00:37:11.360
<v Speaker 1>trigger what whatever fundamental aesthetic algorithms or like like in

707
00:37:11.440 --> 00:37:17.159
<v Speaker 1>your brain. There's you have I think some intrinsic uh,

708
00:37:17.920 --> 00:37:22.400
<v Speaker 1>elements that that represent beauty and and that that trigger

709
00:37:23.679 --> 00:37:25.920
<v Speaker 1>the the emotion of appreciation of beauty in you in

710
00:37:26.039 --> 00:37:29.719
<v Speaker 1>your in your mind. And I think that these are

711
00:37:31.119 --> 00:37:35.320
<v Speaker 1>these are actually relatively consistent among people. I mean not

712
00:37:35.440 --> 00:37:39.159
<v Speaker 1>not completely some people, like not everyone likes the same thing,

713
00:37:39.519 --> 00:37:45.760
<v Speaker 1>but there are there's a lot of commonality and and

714
00:37:45.880 --> 00:37:48.039
<v Speaker 1>and and they're yeah, and they're they're but but I

715
00:37:48.079 --> 00:37:53.320
<v Speaker 1>think it is important to combine aesthetic design with functionality.

716
00:37:53.920 --> 00:37:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Like the thing that's like, if you say, like what

717
00:37:56.119 --> 00:37:58.320
<v Speaker 1>was really hard about say the Model S or the

718
00:37:58.400 --> 00:38:05.679
<v Speaker 1>Model X was to combine aesthetics and utility, so to

719
00:38:05.800 --> 00:38:08.719
<v Speaker 1>to balance the two. You can make a car look

720
00:38:09.320 --> 00:38:13.880
<v Speaker 1>very good by giving it sort of certain proportions, like

721
00:38:14.199 --> 00:38:18.239
<v Speaker 1>making it sort of low and slim and and and uh.

722
00:38:19.079 --> 00:38:23.239
<v Speaker 1>But but if you if you do that, the utility

723
00:38:23.360 --> 00:38:27.079
<v Speaker 1>is significantly affected. So the big challenge with the say

724
00:38:27.119 --> 00:38:28.800
<v Speaker 1>the Model S, was trying to figure out how do

725
00:38:28.880 --> 00:38:31.320
<v Speaker 1>we get five adults plus two kids, because I want

726
00:38:31.320 --> 00:38:32.719
<v Speaker 1>to have through sevens here.

727
00:38:33.039 --> 00:38:36.400
<v Speaker 3>It seems like the Dragon and every teslazed room for

728
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:37.880
<v Speaker 3>seven seven five children.

729
00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:39.840
<v Speaker 2>I can see. Yeah, it might be in important to

730
00:38:39.880 --> 00:38:40.119
<v Speaker 2>sign for.

731
00:38:41.159 --> 00:38:42.880
<v Speaker 1>I definitely don't think we should take the whole family

732
00:38:42.920 --> 00:38:47.800
<v Speaker 1>on the spacecraft. But but but that like the big

733
00:38:47.920 --> 00:38:50.599
<v Speaker 1>challenge with the like with with the S was having

734
00:38:50.679 --> 00:38:53.599
<v Speaker 1>a car that had a high utility and look good.

735
00:38:54.360 --> 00:38:55.320
<v Speaker 4>And the same with the X.

736
00:38:56.880 --> 00:38:59.480
<v Speaker 1>So like it's like with the to make a sports

737
00:38:59.559 --> 00:39:02.519
<v Speaker 1>car look it is relatively easy, but to make a

738
00:39:02.599 --> 00:39:05.679
<v Speaker 1>sedan look good or uns you look good is quite difficult.

739
00:39:07.440 --> 00:39:10.639
<v Speaker 1>And and I think another principle is you want to

740
00:39:10.679 --> 00:39:12.960
<v Speaker 1>have it feel bigger on the inside then it looks

741
00:39:13.000 --> 00:39:16.760
<v Speaker 1>on the outside, and that's also a really hard thing

742
00:39:16.800 --> 00:39:21.800
<v Speaker 1>to do. And then really pay attention to the little details,

743
00:39:23.000 --> 00:39:27.159
<v Speaker 1>the nuances of design and shape and form function, and

744
00:39:29.519 --> 00:39:31.880
<v Speaker 1>that you know, just the way it looks in different

745
00:39:31.960 --> 00:39:32.400
<v Speaker 1>lights and.

746
00:39:32.880 --> 00:39:35.400
<v Speaker 2>When something is off the little thing, how do you

747
00:39:35.519 --> 00:39:36.079
<v Speaker 2>experience that?

748
00:39:37.440 --> 00:39:38.519
<v Speaker 4>It drives me bananas?

749
00:39:39.360 --> 00:39:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean it's the problem is like, if you

750
00:39:43.960 --> 00:39:47.239
<v Speaker 1>you can train yourself to pay attention to the tiny details,

751
00:39:47.280 --> 00:39:51.679
<v Speaker 1>I think almost anyone can, although this is a very

752
00:39:51.760 --> 00:39:53.719
<v Speaker 1>much double edged sword because then you see all the

753
00:39:53.800 --> 00:39:58.599
<v Speaker 1>little details and then little things drive you crazy. So

754
00:39:59.800 --> 00:40:02.440
<v Speaker 1>but like most people don't they don't see they don't

755
00:40:02.480 --> 00:40:06.519
<v Speaker 1>consciously see the small details, but they they do subconsciously

756
00:40:06.599 --> 00:40:08.920
<v Speaker 1>see them, like you sort of your mind takes in

757
00:40:09.079 --> 00:40:13.559
<v Speaker 1>your result of the overall you know, an overall impression,

758
00:40:14.199 --> 00:40:17.840
<v Speaker 1>and you know if something is appealing or not, even

759
00:40:17.840 --> 00:40:20.760
<v Speaker 1>though you may not be able to win out exactly why.

760
00:40:21.960 --> 00:40:24.679
<v Speaker 4>And it's it's the summation of these many small details.

761
00:40:25.280 --> 00:40:27.239
<v Speaker 3>So most of us experience it as a oh, I

762
00:40:27.280 --> 00:40:29.320
<v Speaker 3>think that's ugly, or I think that's beautiful, or like wow,

763
00:40:29.360 --> 00:40:29.920
<v Speaker 3>that's elegant.

764
00:40:30.000 --> 00:40:33.360
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, you can't break it down. You mentioned something

765
00:40:33.480 --> 00:40:36.159
<v Speaker 2>in passing like you can train yourself in this though.

766
00:40:36.159 --> 00:40:37.159
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you can train yourself.

767
00:40:37.159 --> 00:40:40.599
<v Speaker 1>I think you can make yourself pay attention to to

768
00:40:40.760 --> 00:40:47.159
<v Speaker 1>why you're essentially bring the subconscious awareness into conscious awareness.

769
00:40:48.039 --> 00:40:49.480
<v Speaker 2>I wish I could do that. How do you do that?

770
00:40:51.159 --> 00:40:54.000
<v Speaker 3>Just Just pay really close attention, almost like a meditation

771
00:40:54.079 --> 00:40:56.840
<v Speaker 3>on the object, trying to find the details, like why

772
00:40:56.960 --> 00:40:57.760
<v Speaker 3>do I not like this?

773
00:40:58.320 --> 00:40:58.639
<v Speaker 1>Is that? What?

774
00:40:59.119 --> 00:41:01.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah? Just look look closely and carefully.

775
00:41:03.559 --> 00:41:07.719
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, for any give an object, it's that it's geometry.

776
00:41:08.639 --> 00:41:09.199
<v Speaker 4>It's uh.

777
00:41:12.079 --> 00:41:14.440
<v Speaker 3>I've heard someone with for Steve Jobs, and that thought

778
00:41:14.480 --> 00:41:16.320
<v Speaker 3>occurred to me as well. I worked briefly with him,

779
00:41:16.400 --> 00:41:20.960
<v Speaker 3>and I could only experience as a visceral agitation with imperfection,

780
00:41:21.360 --> 00:41:24.960
<v Speaker 3>and like that's just wrong, like that to be fixed.

781
00:41:25.000 --> 00:41:27.119
<v Speaker 1>I have to turn it off otherwise that I can't

782
00:41:27.159 --> 00:41:32.199
<v Speaker 1>go through life. It's just yeah, it's yeah, it's the.

783
00:41:32.239 --> 00:41:34.480
<v Speaker 2>World around you or even in yeah, yeah.

784
00:41:34.679 --> 00:41:38.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah if you because there's there's always something wrong somewhere

785
00:41:38.119 --> 00:41:42.679
<v Speaker 1>all the time, and so it's you really have to

786
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:46.440
<v Speaker 1>turn it off otherwise, you know, God, you just get

787
00:41:46.519 --> 00:41:48.719
<v Speaker 1>the like the list of the mental list of things

788
00:41:48.760 --> 00:41:50.079
<v Speaker 1>that are wrong just drives you crazy.

789
00:41:50.199 --> 00:41:51.599
<v Speaker 3>I just wish this way you could just like record

790
00:41:51.639 --> 00:41:55.199
<v Speaker 3>it for everyone else to go fix. Just running tally right.

791
00:41:55.320 --> 00:41:55.960
<v Speaker 4>Oh my god.

792
00:41:57.039 --> 00:41:59.559
<v Speaker 3>So let me go to one other question. I found

793
00:41:59.559 --> 00:42:01.840
<v Speaker 3>that one interesting. I had no idea where that was

794
00:42:01.880 --> 00:42:03.440
<v Speaker 3>going to go. So I really appreciate that question, Nick,

795
00:42:03.519 --> 00:42:06.840
<v Speaker 3>Thank you. Let's see what's one of these doing it.

796
00:42:06.920 --> 00:42:09.199
<v Speaker 2>There's some combination of questions. Let me mention both. You

797
00:42:09.239 --> 00:42:10.679
<v Speaker 2>can pick which one you like more, because they both

798
00:42:10.760 --> 00:42:12.000
<v Speaker 2>relate to colonizing Mars.

799
00:42:12.360 --> 00:42:14.320
<v Speaker 3>One comes from Henning rote Ol, a PhD candidate and

800
00:42:14.360 --> 00:42:17.719
<v Speaker 3>Civil Environmental Engineering, which just asks elon giving your plan

801
00:42:17.840 --> 00:42:20.519
<v Speaker 3>to bring a million colonists to Mars, what are the

802
00:42:20.559 --> 00:42:23.000
<v Speaker 3>pressing future technologies that need to be developed in order

803
00:42:23.000 --> 00:42:26.000
<v Speaker 3>to support a robust and thriving surface colony, So technology

804
00:42:26.079 --> 00:42:29.159
<v Speaker 3>for I guess survival, And then maybe related from the

805
00:42:29.199 --> 00:42:32.599
<v Speaker 3>Stanford Space Initiative students, how do you envision humans governing

806
00:42:32.719 --> 00:42:33.519
<v Speaker 3>a separate planet?

807
00:42:33.960 --> 00:42:35.800
<v Speaker 2>Unlessure if you're sure. I had to think about that yet.

808
00:42:36.199 --> 00:42:38.079
<v Speaker 4>I thought a little bit about those things.

809
00:42:38.159 --> 00:42:41.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, obviously the first challenge is just getting there

810
00:42:42.320 --> 00:42:44.840
<v Speaker 1>at all, and like that's you know, so SpaceX is

811
00:42:44.880 --> 00:42:46.800
<v Speaker 1>working super hard on figure out just how to get

812
00:42:47.239 --> 00:42:50.639
<v Speaker 1>large numbers of people and cargo to Mars. And I

813
00:42:50.719 --> 00:42:54.119
<v Speaker 1>think we've got something that I think works at a

814
00:42:54.159 --> 00:42:57.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of fundamental physics and economics level. So it's a

815
00:42:57.519 --> 00:43:01.159
<v Speaker 1>question of figuring out the detailed design, which we're working on.

816
00:43:01.280 --> 00:43:02.840
<v Speaker 1>We're only spending like half an hour a week on

817
00:43:02.920 --> 00:43:06.519
<v Speaker 1>it because like pressing near term priorities. But I'm kind

818
00:43:06.519 --> 00:43:10.920
<v Speaker 1>of excited about how it's coming together. So to getting

819
00:43:10.960 --> 00:43:13.280
<v Speaker 1>just getting that transport thing solved, I think we'll then

820
00:43:13.360 --> 00:43:16.679
<v Speaker 1>open up a tremendous number of opportunities for people on Mars.

821
00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:19.719
<v Speaker 1>You know, just like you know, having the Union Pacific

822
00:43:19.840 --> 00:43:25.159
<v Speaker 1>Railroad to California and the you know, and look at

823
00:43:25.159 --> 00:43:27.800
<v Speaker 1>what what you know resulted after that.

824
00:43:28.360 --> 00:43:30.000
<v Speaker 2>Other companies figured it out. It's like, what are you

825
00:43:30.000 --> 00:43:30.599
<v Speaker 2>going to get there?

826
00:43:30.719 --> 00:43:34.159
<v Speaker 1>Then you get then that the opportunities for entrepreneurs are

827
00:43:34.280 --> 00:43:39.559
<v Speaker 1>a tremendous that ranges everything from you know, everything you

828
00:43:39.639 --> 00:43:43.199
<v Speaker 1>can imagine like starting the you know, like the first

829
00:43:43.400 --> 00:43:46.320
<v Speaker 1>Italian restaurant or something on Mars. You know, it's like

830
00:43:47.079 --> 00:43:48.519
<v Speaker 1>somebody you've got to do it, and it'll be kind

831
00:43:48.519 --> 00:43:54.199
<v Speaker 1>of cool, you know, like a iron an iron refinery,

832
00:43:54.719 --> 00:43:58.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, like resourceing boundary, you know, the like the

833
00:43:58.639 --> 00:44:03.239
<v Speaker 1>the entire basic industry, and and then there'll probably be

834
00:44:03.360 --> 00:44:06.199
<v Speaker 1>things like that are just unique to Mars. But but

835
00:44:06.840 --> 00:44:09.559
<v Speaker 1>we we gotta we got to get that, you know, effectively,

836
00:44:09.599 --> 00:44:13.320
<v Speaker 1>that Union Pacific Railroad there in order to get get

837
00:44:13.360 --> 00:44:15.719
<v Speaker 1>the entrepreneurs there that and and and then create a

838
00:44:15.760 --> 00:44:21.519
<v Speaker 1>fertile environment for them to create companies. So that that's

839
00:44:21.679 --> 00:44:24.639
<v Speaker 1>that's m HM. So so once you're there, it's it's

840
00:44:24.800 --> 00:44:27.000
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be I think a lot of exciting

841
00:44:27.079 --> 00:44:30.880
<v Speaker 1>things that can be done. And in the beginning, you know,

842
00:44:30.920 --> 00:44:34.199
<v Speaker 1>people would live in kind of glass domes, but but

843
00:44:34.360 --> 00:44:36.519
<v Speaker 1>over time it would terrior for Mars and make it

844
00:44:36.719 --> 00:44:40.960
<v Speaker 1>like Earth. And so so I think it's just been

845
00:44:40.960 --> 00:44:43.119
<v Speaker 1>a lot of super exciting things that are hard to predict.

846
00:44:43.239 --> 00:44:47.239
<v Speaker 1>Just like when they're building you in Pacific, they would

847
00:44:47.280 --> 00:44:50.639
<v Speaker 1>hard Nobody would have predicted Silicon Valley and Hollywood, right,

848
00:44:50.800 --> 00:44:53.719
<v Speaker 1>you know that that's would have been like an urbanization

849
00:44:53.800 --> 00:44:56.840
<v Speaker 1>in general. Yeah, you know, well the California would be

850
00:44:57.199 --> 00:44:59.519
<v Speaker 1>like the most popular state in the country.

851
00:45:00.119 --> 00:45:01.960
<v Speaker 4>Like they're like that sounds crazy.

852
00:45:03.440 --> 00:45:03.800
<v Speaker 2>For them.

853
00:45:03.840 --> 00:45:06.719
<v Speaker 4>Goal is discovered, right yeah, so.

854
00:45:06.880 --> 00:45:10.760
<v Speaker 1>And so the yeah, I think like it's it's really

855
00:45:11.320 --> 00:45:13.639
<v Speaker 1>in coming on SpaceX or you know, maybe other organizations

856
00:45:13.719 --> 00:45:15.880
<v Speaker 1>to figure out how to get there. Well otherwise nothing

857
00:45:15.880 --> 00:45:18.280
<v Speaker 1>else mats and then once you get there, there's a

858
00:45:18.280 --> 00:45:20.679
<v Speaker 1>lot of sort of yeah, a lot that can be done.

859
00:45:21.719 --> 00:45:26.719
<v Speaker 1>From a governance standpoint, I mean, obviously, ultimately the governance

860
00:45:26.719 --> 00:45:28.199
<v Speaker 1>of Arts will be up to the Martians, but.

861
00:45:29.920 --> 00:45:33.400
<v Speaker 2>The we have a name from them. We become a

862
00:45:33.440 --> 00:45:34.280
<v Speaker 2>Martian when each other.

863
00:45:35.119 --> 00:45:38.360
<v Speaker 1>But but I think if you said, like, how would

864
00:45:38.360 --> 00:45:42.320
<v Speaker 1>you do adopt a democracy two point zero, you know,

865
00:45:42.559 --> 00:45:44.760
<v Speaker 1>or like some a new new version. I think we

866
00:45:44.760 --> 00:45:46.800
<v Speaker 1>would probably have more of a direct democracy than a

867
00:45:46.840 --> 00:45:52.159
<v Speaker 1>representative democracy. And you know, when the when the United

868
00:45:52.199 --> 00:45:54.000
<v Speaker 1>States was formed, it was really it was impossible to

869
00:45:54.039 --> 00:45:58.920
<v Speaker 1>have a direct democracy, like like you're even sending a

870
00:45:59.039 --> 00:46:02.039
<v Speaker 1>letter two weeks, so there was no way that people

871
00:46:02.079 --> 00:46:06.239
<v Speaker 1>could like vote directly on issues. You had to have representatives. Interesting,

872
00:46:06.519 --> 00:46:10.320
<v Speaker 1>so I think I think probably there would be more

873
00:46:10.360 --> 00:46:11.119
<v Speaker 1>direct democracy.

874
00:46:11.360 --> 00:46:14.599
<v Speaker 2>And is this thing about the latency of communication from others.

875
00:46:15.280 --> 00:46:20.639
<v Speaker 1>Latency saying just like communication errors and communication latency when

876
00:46:20.679 --> 00:46:24.480
<v Speaker 1>you have letters that that take weeks to get anywhere,

877
00:46:25.360 --> 00:46:26.360
<v Speaker 1>what would have made.

878
00:46:27.920 --> 00:46:29.599
<v Speaker 4>Governance almost impossible?

879
00:46:30.079 --> 00:46:32.920
<v Speaker 1>I think if if it hadn't been a representative of democracy,

880
00:46:33.159 --> 00:46:34.679
<v Speaker 1>you had a lot of people that couldn't even read.

881
00:46:35.320 --> 00:46:36.079
<v Speaker 4>Or or right, you know.

882
00:46:36.239 --> 00:46:38.599
<v Speaker 2>So that's fascinating.

883
00:46:38.840 --> 00:46:40.280
<v Speaker 3>I was just wondering if if you were to start

884
00:46:40.320 --> 00:46:42.559
<v Speaker 3>over with a clean sheet of paper on governance is

885
00:46:42.639 --> 00:46:45.960
<v Speaker 3>did you think a framework that could be envisioned that

886
00:46:46.199 --> 00:46:49.320
<v Speaker 3>encompasses other scenting beings to come, meaning the AIS and

887
00:46:49.400 --> 00:46:52.599
<v Speaker 3>others who might clamor for their rights on one side.

888
00:46:52.760 --> 00:46:55.840
<v Speaker 1>Right, Yes, it's a difficult predict but I can say

889
00:46:56.119 --> 00:46:58.360
<v Speaker 1>I think probably we would would aim for a more

890
00:46:58.400 --> 00:47:03.840
<v Speaker 1>direct democracy. And then in talking to Larry Page about this,

891
00:47:03.880 --> 00:47:05.920
<v Speaker 1>and he had like a good suggestion, like we should

892
00:47:05.960 --> 00:47:08.760
<v Speaker 1>limit the number of words in the law because like

893
00:47:09.320 --> 00:47:11.920
<v Speaker 1>we have these like thousand page laws like a pasts

894
00:47:12.039 --> 00:47:13.239
<v Speaker 1>and like nobody's read them.

895
00:47:13.199 --> 00:47:14.679
<v Speaker 2>Twitter equivalent of personal money.

896
00:47:14.800 --> 00:47:17.599
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, like I don't know a thousand word letter count

897
00:47:17.679 --> 00:47:19.559
<v Speaker 1>or something like that. Like if you can't, if you

898
00:47:19.639 --> 00:47:22.239
<v Speaker 1>can't write the law in a thousand words, then probably

899
00:47:22.239 --> 00:47:26.840
<v Speaker 1>it shouldn't be there. And you know, just which we

900
00:47:26.880 --> 00:47:31.039
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't have, you know, a single law passed that's like

901
00:47:31.159 --> 00:47:34.039
<v Speaker 1>the size of Lord of the Rings, that's right, and

902
00:47:34.280 --> 00:47:36.599
<v Speaker 1>like literally not a single person in Congress has read.

903
00:47:36.480 --> 00:47:36.880
<v Speaker 4>The whole thing.

904
00:47:37.960 --> 00:47:40.880
<v Speaker 2>It's like the tax good, it's unscrewtable.

905
00:47:40.519 --> 00:47:42.599
<v Speaker 4>It's exactly so that. So there's that. And then I think.

906
00:47:45.000 --> 00:47:48.320
<v Speaker 1>Laws also have an infinite lifespan unless they're given some

907
00:47:48.480 --> 00:47:52.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of you know, sunset periods are probably biggerd to

908
00:47:52.559 --> 00:47:56.119
<v Speaker 1>default laws to have a sunset period, like and if

909
00:47:56.119 --> 00:47:58.079
<v Speaker 1>it's not i it's not good enough to be renewed,

910
00:47:58.360 --> 00:48:04.840
<v Speaker 1>then it goes away. And maybe some hysteresis in that

911
00:48:05.079 --> 00:48:07.480
<v Speaker 1>in making it easier to remove a law than to

912
00:48:07.519 --> 00:48:10.719
<v Speaker 1>put one in place. It can just imagine because like

913
00:48:10.760 --> 00:48:12.880
<v Speaker 1>over time, like the body of law just gets bigger

914
00:48:12.880 --> 00:48:13.599
<v Speaker 1>and bigger and bigger.

915
00:48:13.800 --> 00:48:15.599
<v Speaker 4>So like you like, how do you avoid that?

916
00:48:17.320 --> 00:48:20.840
<v Speaker 1>And you have in inertia associated with the laws, and

917
00:48:20.960 --> 00:48:24.159
<v Speaker 1>so maybe you know it would take sixty percent to

918
00:48:24.360 --> 00:48:26.559
<v Speaker 1>create a law, but only forty percent to remove a law.

919
00:48:27.960 --> 00:48:31.840
<v Speaker 2>Oh interesting, fascinating, Yeah, something like that.

920
00:48:32.039 --> 00:48:35.800
<v Speaker 3>Those are, like the rules of a constitutional democracy have

921
00:48:35.880 --> 00:48:39.360
<v Speaker 3>such a profound impact and to have a new playground

922
00:48:39.360 --> 00:48:40.159
<v Speaker 3>would be fantastic.

923
00:48:41.880 --> 00:48:43.199
<v Speaker 2>There's something better than what you.

924
00:48:43.199 --> 00:48:45.559
<v Speaker 3>Said a moment ago on a highlight, on a transition

925
00:48:45.679 --> 00:48:49.559
<v Speaker 3>to perhaps a closing question heard in passing. You know,

926
00:48:49.639 --> 00:48:51.079
<v Speaker 3>I think about some of these things about a half

927
00:48:51.119 --> 00:48:54.280
<v Speaker 3>hour a week, if I heard you right. And this

928
00:48:54.480 --> 00:48:57.880
<v Speaker 3>is I think a profound thing to dwell on is

929
00:48:57.920 --> 00:48:59.880
<v Speaker 3>that you know, He's changed in the world, and so

930
00:49:00.119 --> 00:49:03.960
<v Speaker 3>many areas and many entrepreneurs I see get and myself included,

931
00:49:04.079 --> 00:49:06.960
<v Speaker 3>enamored with all of the possibilities of a future Mars base,

932
00:49:07.079 --> 00:49:10.039
<v Speaker 3>of the terrorforming, of the every aspect of it that

933
00:49:10.159 --> 00:49:12.320
<v Speaker 3>might need to come into being. And I find myself

934
00:49:12.360 --> 00:49:15.159
<v Speaker 3>often distracted by those future questions that are a little

935
00:49:15.239 --> 00:49:17.480
<v Speaker 3>less relevant today. What you just heard was we got

936
00:49:17.599 --> 00:49:20.320
<v Speaker 3>to solve the railway first, Like, let me put ninety percent,

937
00:49:20.440 --> 00:49:23.280
<v Speaker 3>ninety five percent on my effort into that and not

938
00:49:23.320 --> 00:49:25.239
<v Speaker 3>get distracted by all the other interesting questions.

939
00:49:25.000 --> 00:49:25.840
<v Speaker 2>That need to come later.

940
00:49:26.159 --> 00:49:28.039
<v Speaker 3>And I remember a few years ago, maybe three or

941
00:49:28.039 --> 00:49:30.920
<v Speaker 3>four years ago, trying to get you to brainstorm with

942
00:49:31.000 --> 00:49:33.559
<v Speaker 3>Craig Venter about you know, doing a sample return from

943
00:49:33.599 --> 00:49:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Mars and sending a genetic sequencer there to help understand

944
00:49:36.559 --> 00:49:39.440
<v Speaker 3>life there that might exist, et cetera. And I remember

945
00:49:39.519 --> 00:49:41.920
<v Speaker 3>profoundly the response was, that is a really interesting topic,

946
00:49:42.039 --> 00:49:43.719
<v Speaker 3>but I got to get these rockets to work first

947
00:49:43.840 --> 00:49:45.880
<v Speaker 3>before that's going to be relevant to me. And let

948
00:49:45.920 --> 00:49:48.480
<v Speaker 3>me hunker down on what's important here and that ability

949
00:49:48.559 --> 00:49:52.599
<v Speaker 3>to prioritize it on the stepping stones to a huge vision.

950
00:49:52.800 --> 00:49:54.760
<v Speaker 2>It's it's this interesting.

951
00:49:54.440 --> 00:49:59.840
<v Speaker 3>Dichotomy, like not just pure visionary scattered across many things alone,

952
00:50:01.000 --> 00:50:03.079
<v Speaker 3>clear sense of where we're heading, chaining back to the

953
00:50:03.119 --> 00:50:05.480
<v Speaker 3>present and making sure we're taking the right steps in

954
00:50:05.559 --> 00:50:07.960
<v Speaker 3>a fumbled future, if you will, I think I wish

955
00:50:08.039 --> 00:50:10.119
<v Speaker 3>we could all do that in the way we try

956
00:50:10.159 --> 00:50:11.000
<v Speaker 3>to implement change.

957
00:50:12.239 --> 00:50:14.000
<v Speaker 2>So let me move. If I made a one last question,

958
00:50:14.119 --> 00:50:16.719
<v Speaker 2>which could be broad or not, which is there's a lot.

959
00:50:16.639 --> 00:50:18.719
<v Speaker 3>Of people here from all kinds of parts of the world,

960
00:50:18.800 --> 00:50:21.159
<v Speaker 3>and I think everyone who hears your story, you know,

961
00:50:21.199 --> 00:50:24.039
<v Speaker 3>an immigrant from South Africa through Canada to the US

962
00:50:24.159 --> 00:50:27.679
<v Speaker 3>taking on four or five different industries with great a

963
00:50:27.760 --> 00:50:32.360
<v Speaker 3>plumb and success is inspiring. But it's not just that

964
00:50:32.719 --> 00:50:35.559
<v Speaker 3>you've had business success or technology success. It's that you

965
00:50:35.679 --> 00:50:38.199
<v Speaker 3>really are changing the world for the better in these areas.

966
00:50:39.079 --> 00:50:41.239
<v Speaker 3>And so I guess maybe if as a closing question, again,

967
00:50:41.280 --> 00:50:43.960
<v Speaker 3>looking from the present to the future, what do you

968
00:50:44.119 --> 00:50:47.400
<v Speaker 3>see as the sort of the biggest pressing problems that

969
00:50:47.559 --> 00:50:48.280
<v Speaker 3>need to be addressed?

970
00:50:48.280 --> 00:50:50.480
<v Speaker 2>So this may in fact require to pull that filter

971
00:50:50.559 --> 00:50:51.880
<v Speaker 2>off for a moment on the things of the world

972
00:50:51.920 --> 00:50:52.440
<v Speaker 2>that are broken.

973
00:50:53.199 --> 00:50:55.320
<v Speaker 3>And if everyone here in the audience could be a

974
00:50:55.400 --> 00:50:58.079
<v Speaker 3>change agent themselves in their area of passion, what would

975
00:50:58.119 --> 00:51:00.440
<v Speaker 3>you hope to catalyze today? If you say, high school,

976
00:51:00.480 --> 00:51:03.679
<v Speaker 3>solve this big, heavy problem and figure out why it's broken.

977
00:51:08.159 --> 00:51:10.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, I don't think everyone needs to go, you know,

978
00:51:11.280 --> 00:51:14.159
<v Speaker 1>try to solve like some big, big world changing problem.

979
00:51:14.239 --> 00:51:17.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think that like, if I really think

980
00:51:17.920 --> 00:51:22.519
<v Speaker 1>like we should just think like always doing something that's useful.

981
00:51:23.800 --> 00:51:26.400
<v Speaker 4>To the world. Like, if you're doing something useful, that's great.

982
00:51:26.719 --> 00:51:32.000
<v Speaker 2>Imagine it. I really think some things are more useful, sure, sure,

983
00:51:32.119 --> 00:51:34.199
<v Speaker 2>but but maybe personal.

984
00:51:34.159 --> 00:51:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Like I just think that like you sort of a

985
00:51:35.960 --> 00:51:39.880
<v Speaker 1>usefulness optimization is like that's like a really good thing.

986
00:51:41.000 --> 00:51:43.199
<v Speaker 1>You know, if you if you've done something that's useful

987
00:51:43.320 --> 00:51:46.400
<v Speaker 1>to your feeling human beings, that's you've done a really

988
00:51:46.440 --> 00:51:50.719
<v Speaker 1>good thing, and people should feel proud of doing that.

989
00:51:51.920 --> 00:51:52.079
<v Speaker 4>You know.

990
00:51:52.119 --> 00:51:53.920
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't doesn't always have to be something that's going

991
00:51:53.960 --> 00:51:55.880
<v Speaker 1>to change the world. I mean, sometimes the world just

992
00:51:56.079 --> 00:52:00.280
<v Speaker 1>keep going in a particular direction. The world, yeah, it

993
00:52:00.320 --> 00:52:02.000
<v Speaker 1>might be might be going in the right direction. And

994
00:52:03.480 --> 00:52:04.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean in a lot of ways that the wealth

995
00:52:05.119 --> 00:52:09.559
<v Speaker 1>is and we are in great shape in that if

996
00:52:09.599 --> 00:52:15.480
<v Speaker 1>you look at say, violent crimes per capita in the world,

997
00:52:15.960 --> 00:52:20.920
<v Speaker 1>it's at ant like old time low. We're actually quite

998
00:52:21.039 --> 00:52:29.519
<v Speaker 1>prosperous and you know, compared to his history, and you know,

999
00:52:29.559 --> 00:52:30.880
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of things to feel good

1000
00:52:30.920 --> 00:52:34.360
<v Speaker 1>about in terms of how the world is today. Access

1001
00:52:34.480 --> 00:52:39.719
<v Speaker 1>to information is incredible. I mean, uh, yeah, anyone with

1002
00:52:39.840 --> 00:52:43.000
<v Speaker 1>you like a one hundred device could has access to

1003
00:52:43.840 --> 00:52:46.840
<v Speaker 1>basically all the world's information, which is an incredible thing.
