Speaker 1: Welcome Ember. When to props and parlays. We got two
Monday night football game to break down from a props
betting standpoint Bill's at Falcons Bears at Commanders. I am
your host, Andy Lang, being joined as always by my
fellow props betting expert Andrew McGinnis. Andrew, are you aware
how close we were to hitting last week's seventeen to
one same game parlay? We are our guy that got
a sack, got credited with half a sack if they
were to credit him with a full sack. We hit
our seventeen to one, and now we're free rolling for
the rest of the season. So we're gonna hit the
same game, Parla.
Speaker 2: You're telling me even with a sack prop we're getting
we're getting the point five loss. That's just tough, and
so it begs the question would we have rather have
barely lost that or come not even close? That's the question.
I think we're getting one step closer. This week is
the week, looking forward to it and gonna be a
great Monday here, Andy.
Speaker 1: I want to be creeping up on it. I want
to know we're getting played. I don't. I want to know,
or at least in the ballpark of hitting some of these.
So well, while we're doing this, guys, please hit the
like button real quick. Takes one second, just be hit
the like button. And let's start with the Bills and
at the Falcons, and this is the game. We're gonna
do the same game, Parlay, and I just want to
start with the passing props here, Andrew and on paper
by position in fantasy, these are the two best passing defenses.
But take it with a grain of salt here, Andrew,
because the Bills have faced Lamar Jackson, who torched them
in Week one, but most of that was Derrick Henry.
Then they faced Justin Fields, then Tua, then Spencer Rattler,
and then they faced Drake may and Drake May had
about two hundred and seventy five yards, so not great
as far as the level of competition. And you know,
the Falcons kind of a little bit of the same
thing here. They faced Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield had
a good game, but then JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young, they
faced Washington that was Marcus Mariota. So I'm not gonna
be too concerned about what the ranking is of these
passing defenses. So I'll go first, and I am gonna
take Michael Pennix over this two twenty four and a
half passing. He went under in two blowouts, but he
went over in two games that were one score of games.
And I have the Falcons plus four in my megapick
pick five here, Andrew. I think this is gonna be
a really close game. I think there's gonna be times
where the Falcons need him to throw. I love this
two twenty four and a half. Then I'm gonna keep
riding the streak with Josh Allen. He's going over this
one and a half passing touchdowns, gone over in four
out of five. The only game he didn't was a
blowout against the Jets. It feels like they're running with
James cook In when they get in close this year
to the end zone. But then there's a lot of
Josh Allen passing touchdowns. He's hitting at a much higher
click than he was last year. So Penix overyards Josh
Allen over passing touchdowns. What do you think about passing
props in this one?
Speaker 2: I think the only thing that gets in the way
of your passing touchdown prop there is his own legs
getting the ball into the touch of the end zone
on his own, because that you know it, either he
gets a touchdown or he goes over one and a half.
Sometimes even both can happen. I'll say I do like
Josh Allen just over his number. I locked in two
twenty seven and a half. As far as his passing yards,
I got Atlanta's secondary ranking bottom ten and completion rate allowed. So,
like you mentioned, some decent defensive stuff to look at
for both these teams, but they are giving up a
ton of passes. And with Josh Allen, you give him
enough time, you let him complete enough passes, he's gonna
start killing you deep downfield. And although I was tempted
by the completions, I do think that this number is
good enough for me to look at the yards as
a whole.
Speaker 3: Now, I do, of course, expect.
Speaker 2: Atlanta to be down and when I look at this
one here, I thought it was interesting.
Speaker 3: The last couple weeks, Buffalo's pass.
Speaker 2: Defense has allowed seven point seven passing yards per attempt,
second worst over the last few weeks here, Andy.
Speaker 3: So there's two bets that I like.
Speaker 2: Number One, I like the completions for Pennix Junior because
I do think that they're gonna be trailing, they're gonna
have to throw the ball a lot, even though early
in the game they're gonna try and do their best
to run the ball. But I'm going back to a
prop that started off slow for me this year and
has certainly picked it up. We're gonna go with the
longest completion over thirty three and a half. Right now,
we're seeing sixty nine as the highest from him, but
also we're seeing thirty forty fifty on pretty much a
consistent basis over the past handful of weeks from him,
and in the position. The funny thing is, for him,
it's usually garbage time, or it's usually late in the
game when it doesn't actually end up leading to a
touchdown or anything like that. But with the number of
completions this Bills team is currently giving up when it's
gets to a certain point in the game, I think
they're gonna have to stop throwing or running the ball.
Then all of a sudden, you start airing it out.
It opens up opportunities. So thirty three and a half
is the number. I like it there, and I'm interested
in that completions for him as well. But we'll go
with probably the best bet for the passing one would
be Josh Allen, just simply because I think he is
going to get to the secondary of the Elkins.
Speaker 1: We'll move on to the receiving props in this one,
and I think my favorite one is Darnell Mooney has
been officially ruled out, so I'm going to go right
back to Kyle Pitts over three and a half receptions.
It's pretty simple going over this in every game this
season without Mooney, it's Drake London and it's Kyle Pitts,
and I don't need to overthink this one. So as
all the books are hanging three and a half, and
they're in a tough spot because if they move it
up to four and a half, now you're looking at
juice to the under. So I think they're kind of
skating by on this one, but I'll keep writing Kyle
Pits over this one again. You and I expect this
game to be close. We expect there to be a
good amount of yards here, So Kyle puts over his receptions,
and then Josh Palmer, if you want to dig a
little bit deeper, this is kind of one of those
hidden gems. Over eighteen and a half yards receiving it's
so low, but I'll give you two Josh Palmer props
here Andrew. Josh Palmer over eighteen and a half receiving
and over twelve and a half on his longest catch.
He's smoked this total four out of five games in
both categories, so and in fact, one catch has gotten
him over eighteen and a half yards just on his
receiving total in some of these games. So when he
catches a ball it listen, He's not high volume, but
it's definitely quality over quantity for Josh Palmer. And as
long as this thing is below twenty, I'll keep playing it.
So Kyle Pittsover's receptions, Josh Palmer over his receiving and
his longest catch total. What do you think about these
receiving props?
Speaker 2: There's just one that I'm gonna give out, and I
like this one quite a bit here and Andy. Some
of these apps and these websites that we look at
when we're doing our prop work, they really help us
figure out which route runners teams don't do well against,
you know, and which positions on the field they aren't
doing well against.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 2: Looking at things right now, it looks like we have
a Falcons team that just doesn't do well against slot receivers.
Khalila Shakir over forty seven and a half receiving yards
I think is a.
Speaker 3: Really really good bet here.
Speaker 2: Falcon slot coverage allowing nine point four yards per target,
and the couple guys that are involved in that area
for them are right now amongst the worst in the
entire league at their position. They're they're giving up a
lot of short yardage plays and Kaloa Shakir that's how
he picks up all his numbers except for it's not
too much short yardage for him. They're giving up nine
point four yards to this position, to this route that
Shakir likes to.
Speaker 3: Run on and on and on all game long.
Speaker 2: So you could look towards receptions as well, But when
I see a number like that nine yards per target,
I feel like just looking at the yards for him.
So I am interested in that. That is what probably
my free play of the day as far as this
game is concerned. But you mentioned Josh Palmer. I want
to ask you, Andy, is is he a guy that
because I have a buddy that keeps betting him as well?
Is he a receptions guy or a yards guy for
you right now, because I feel like she's been on
and off where I'm like, ah, this game is receptions,
and then I'm like, no, it's gotta be yards, just
because there could be one huge one that makes it
every But he was someone I looked at as well.
And then I'll tell you I kind of wanted to
be a little bit well, not contrarian, I guess, but
go towards the under on pits just because I feel
like there he's not really a guy that's catching any
deep balls, and unless he's kind of ends up just
being that safety guy, I feel like they're gonna need more,
you know, someone catching deeper balls, and he's gonna probably
be used for blocking.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Under three and a half receptions for him plus one
oh five is interesting. But yeah, there's a couple of
guys today, like you mentioned the Palmer one. I think
he's only a yards guy and not our receptions guy.
So that could be one of those ones tonight where
we look towards under receptions over yards.
Speaker 1: Oh, I love this the same game parlay on one
of these things. Yeah, you know what with Palmer, it's
you know, it's the best of both worlds. If he
catches a lot more passes than normal, he's gonna probably
go over his yards. But he's a bigger play guy.
He's one of those where it's like, oh, busted coverage.
There's Josh Palmer wide open for twenty eight yards, and
you know he ends the game with two catches for
thirty five yards. But yeah, if you're taking the receptions,
then he may have one for one for thirty and
you're like, why didn't I just take the yards? So
with Palmer, it's it's just about the yards for me
on that one. So let's move to rushing again. On paper,
Buffalo's second best rush offense, Atlanta eighth best rush offense.
So you got some pretty good rushing offenses here. And
I think the books know this because I see I
think these lines are very dialed in. The only one
that I that I'm kind of gravitating towards. And this
might be a play every week. Josh Allen over thirteen
and a half longest rush. You only did this six
times last year, Andrew, and he's done it four games
in a row. It's like this offense has some more
explosive plays in the running game. I went back and
looked at their yards per play. They're ahead of last
year's average, and last year's average was lastyear was a
very explosive offense, and they're even doing it again this year.
So it's really the only time the only rushing prop
I really liked in this one. I took a look
at James Cook over rush attempts, but they got this
thing kind of high, and he went under in the
in the game they were behind against Baltimore. He went
under in the loss against the Patriots. So and then
I can't figure out the Falcons running backs. I won't
have a bet on an Atlanta Falcons running back for
the rest of the year. I just I already know
that I can't figure out Robinson. I can't figure out Algier.
So Josh Allen, keep an eye on this over longest rush.
What do you think about rushing props.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take under fifteen and a half attempts
for b John Robinson. It's obviously not a great odds there.
I guess you'd say it's leaning towards one twenty five,
one point thirty. Now, I just think it's going to
get to a point in the game they're going to
be throwing the ball consistently. Look, I think it's gonna
be somewhat close, but I do think the Bills start
to separate, and I think that with the chunk yardage
is where they're going to have the success. And if
I like some passing props and some completions and stuff
at the quarterback position, then I kind of do lean
towards some unders. And the best part about this attempts
one here, guys, is that realistically, we could see Robinson
break off for a huge play. We could see him
get into the end zone on a running play, but
we're all just looking at the attempts here in this one.
And that's all I'm really concerned about. But okay, and
I'm gonna throw this at you. I know some people
might not care about these type of trends, but Josh
Allen rushing guards, I feel like I've had a really
good read on him a lot of times. I do
like looking at him in big games when they're somewhat
of a close spread, obviously.
Speaker 3: Here being three and a half. But this got interesting.
Speaker 2: He has gone over thirty three and a half rushing
guards in four of his last five primetime games, So take.
Speaker 3: That one, and.
Speaker 2: If you don't care about that one, this one's kind
of interesting. Alan scramble rate jumps up to seventeen percent
against man heavy defenses, and Falcons run man on man
fifty percent of the snaps. This is a guy I
think that right now he has been I mean, you
talk about the longest rush, which certainly has been hitting,
but he's been pretty smart about his rushes, like he's
not taking as much contact as he used to. He's
seeing the holes and using them and then sliding, which
I'm sure coaches are happy.
Speaker 3: To see him protecting his safety.
Speaker 2: But what people don't realize is like, as much as
I want, of course you to hit that play, and
he is breaking off for one big play. It seems
like on the ground most games with a number like
thirty three and a half, all you need is Josh
Allen to get to like six or seven, I think,
and you're gonna get it. It's just the chunk rushing
yards that I really think you need. So I think
he gets this one here, and hey, you know what,
I don't really mind that primetime trend.
Speaker 3: It's okay with me. I'll take it. It's a unique.
Speaker 2: It's a different day you know these guys play on Sundays,
a different day to play football.
Speaker 1: Hey, listen Corbyn, who we do our show? It calls
him greedy Josh Allen, It's like, yeah, take us over
on primetime games, taking him a score, a touchdown, taking
his rushing props. He loves showing off in primetime games,
which works great for us. Prop Better is if we
can find those trends. So that's a great find on
prime time games for Josh Allen. I couldn't really find
a whole out for anytime touchdown props. The price has
gone down on James Cook. Obviously he was at an
unsustainable rate. The price got out of control after the
first three weeks for Jalen Hurts and we laid off
of it for clients. Two weeks in a row, price
got down to minus one thirty, so we fired on it.
This weekend. He went in. I feel like the books
are giving us a little bit of a discount on
James Cook. He was up to minus two hundred and now
he was down to minus one fifty. I think I'd
go back to James Cook anytime touchdown, but nothing with
any any big time confidence. What do you think about
touchdown props.
Speaker 2: Let me just drop a bomb on you really quick here.
And you're talking about Corbyn's nickname for Josh Allen.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna ride with that nickname here.
Speaker 2: Let's go five to one, not one, but two rushing
touchdowns for Josh Allen. We haven't really given out many
two plus touchdowns on the show here since the CEMAC
days when Christian McCaffrey was doing that, and it was
like a minus one thirty just to get in the
end zone here at least.
Speaker 3: So five to one on that one here, And.
Speaker 2: I gotta say, if I think that Shakiir is gonna
be someone that gets targeted quite a bit, that plus
two to twenty number is pretty interesting to look at
as well, So kind of more of a fun one
and then one that I'll probably take a little more
serious with that Shakir prop.
Speaker 1: All Right, it's time to build a same game parlay.
We were one statistician away from giving our guy a
full sack instead of a half sack last week, so
we each get one leg, we end up with a
four leg same game Parla parlay. I will go first here.
I'm gonna go the Falcons over twenty two and a
half on their team total. They had a thirty to
zero loss to the Panthers. They came back scored thirty
four the next week at home, and the Bills have
played three bad offenses and they held them under. Jets, Dolphins,
and Saints. Ravens flew over, Patriots went over against them.
I like this Falcons team at home prime time. Give
me a give me the Falcons over two. I'm sorry,
Falcons over twenty two and a half on the team total.
As my first leg, your first leg, let's.
Speaker 3: Get on the board here.
Speaker 2: With just over two hundred and twenty plus passing yards
for Josh Allen here, I think it's gonna be a
good night for him. I think we're gonna see him,
you know, get after the secondary of this Atlanta team,
and uh, they are giving up a lot of yards
per pass right now. And this is a team I
think that even though they're rested and they're feeling of
coming into this game, I think Josh Allen should be
able to get some damage again. So we we'll squeeze
it down a little bit and we'll go to twenty.
Speaker 1: All right, I am going to go with the Josh
Palmer theme and I'm gonna take him at plus one
forty one to have twenty five plus yards. I mean,
he's averaging thirty four point eight and I'm getting plus
one forty one on the twenty five plus. So this
is one play for a guy like this. So if
you think if you think Josh Allen's gonna go over,
I gotta think Palmer is gonna be gonna be involved
in this one. So all right, we have falcons over
twenty two and a half on their team total, Josh
Allen two twenty plus on the passing yards, and Josh
Palmer twenty five plus receiving yards. Last, what do you
got for us?
Speaker 2: You know, Andy, I'm really confident in the Shakir one
I mentioned. It's my free play of the day. Let's
rock with it. No alternate number. We're gonna go over
on his receiving yards. I just think he gets targeted
a ton. I feel like they do very poor against
his slot coverage, and hopefully he has a huge day
for us. This is one of those ones where you
could play receptions or yards, but I'm just confident with
how many yards they're giving up to the spot that
he likes to go to.
Speaker 3: So I feel good about this week's parlay, man, I do.
Speaker 1: Seven to one. Very disciplined approach by us, Very very disciplined.
Let's just let's just let's just get on the board here.
Sometimes you just need to see one go in. So
the same game parlay as the team total over twenty
two and a half, Josh Allen two and twenty plus
two hundred and twenty plus passing yards, Josh Palmer twenty
five plus receiving yards, and Shakir over his receiving yards.
I've got that locked in at forty seven and a
half and a seven to one. All right, great job
on the same game parlay. Let's get reasonable, Yeah, reasonable
reasonable Guys. In the comments section, give us your favorite
prop for tonight. Give us your thoughts on some of
the props going over. What do you like in this game?
What do you like in the Bears game? Before we
do that again, hit the like button, guys. It really
helps the algorithm out. You know how the algorithm boost works. Andrew,
what do you have up for clients? And but wager
talk today? You got a busy day with all the
hockey starting early.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a really busy day. The NHL schedule makers.
Look you you know I'm the biggest hockey fan there is.
There's one thing that they're bad at. It's marketing.
Speaker 1: So oh we lost.
Speaker 3: We lost.
Speaker 1: The other thing they're bad at having Wi Fi apparently,
Andy geez Internet. All right, so here's what do you have?
Speaker 3: All Right?
Speaker 1: Well, I'll talk about what Andrew has. So hockey starts
at like one pm Eastern time because it's Canadian Thanksgiving,
and uh, there's a bunch of games. And Andrew has
a loaded slate for NHL. He also has his NFL
best bet that is up for tonight. I believe he
has two of them. There's a prop and a side,
so that's up at wager talk. I have one NFL
prop and it's been my favorite one of the week
that we locked in, so I have that up. We're
four and three this week on props. It's been a
really good run. That makes us on a twelve and
six run on props, and the best part, we're on
a seven and one primetime run. We're like Josh Allen,
we've been seeing these primetime games really really well. So
you wanna cash with us tonight, go ahead and cash
on this one prop that we have. So, like I said,
we're four and three. This week we get this one home.
We're five and three and we are well on our
way to that season goal of fifty eight to fifty
nine percent on props. That is over at WT dot
buzz slash al over at wager talk dot com. And
don't forget we got five dollars Tuesday coming up tomorrow.
All handicappers will have a five dollars play up. It's
the last week of Contender Series. So what's five dollars Tuesday?
Play comes up on Contender Series. Lock it in and
we finish out Contender Series strong. So we're waiting for
Andrew to jump back in here. So I will just
jump ahead to the Bears at the Commanders here and
we will start with the passing props again. You guys
know I love my no interceptions props. We lost one
yesterday on Jordan Love, but I think you can look
at Jayden Daniels not to have an interception. He doesn't
have any this season. My only worri is the Bears
have been very good about interceptions. They have seven interceptions
on defense this season. I've talked about Caleb Williams not
throwing an interception. I will still keep riding it. He's
two and two on this one, so we've gotten juiced
a little bit on that one. But I'm going to
continue to ride the trend that he will figure it
out and stop throwing the ball to the other team.
And I'm also looking at Caleb Williams over two hundred
and thirty three and a half. Passing commanders give up
about two hundred and fifty four per game. The Bears
have had a week off to prepare and get their
offense a little bit more dialed in, and the only
other team in the bottom twenty in pass defense that
he faced he had two hundred and ninety eight. So
take a little sprinkle on Caleb Williams over two thirty
three and a half. It's not it's not the most
confident play in the world, but I will go ahead
and roll with that one. So all right. Receiving props.
Deebo Samuel is banged up. I don't even know if
he's gonna play tonight. It's kind of a game time decision.
He popped up late on the injury report. I'm gonna
take his under five and a half reception if he
doesn't play you're gonna get a void. But if he
does play, is he gonna be one hundred percent? So
I'll take under five and a half receptions and at
piggyback off that, Luke McCaffrey over twenty eight and a
half receiving. There are so many injuries to the Commander's
wide receiving corps. You've got Terry mccorran, who's out. You
got Debo who's out. Debo at eleven targets last week.
So Luke McCaffrey may be the last wide receiver standing
to get all these targets. So is he an elite
talent at the wide receiver position. No, but sometimes pure
volume is gonna get you there. So Luke McCaffrey over there.
And then we talked about room ad. I mean, I
like a lot of receiving props in this game. We
talked about Roma doonsday. But it's sneaky Dj Moore over
three and a half receptions. He's had four, four and
five the last three games. He's getting five plus targets
each game. And Caleb, he can be a little wild
with the ball, but DJ Moore is catching more of
the shorter passes, so he's kind of more of the
checkdown guy. So over three and a half receptions for
DJ Moore again, I would expect this game to be
really close. I don't expect the blowout on either way,
which which forces the team out of their game plan.
And then a krossky Merritt. I think this is a
bargain here. Over eight and a half receiving. He has
cemented himself as the number one back in Washington, and
he's had two catches each of the last two weeks
and he's gone over this total in those two weeks.
So you give me two catches for krossky Merrit, he's
going to go over this eight and a half receiving.
I think last week he had like thirty eight yards.
So I mean, this is one of those numbers that
I love because it's one play. You can get a
screen pass and go for eleven twelve yards and you've
cashed it, and then you get the second the second catch,
which is just icing on the cake. We moved to
rushing and I'm gonna take us break along DeAndre Swift
under thirteen and a half rush attempts. The Commanders give
up twenty three plus rush attempts per game. But Caleb
william has twenty six rushes on the season, and Manong
Guy has had seventeen carries the last four games. He
popped up on the injury report this week, but he
was a full participant in Friday. So DeAndre Swift has
not a no pun intended run away with this Bear's
lead back rushing job like he's been. Okay, don't be
surprised if Manong Guy gets a few more of these
of these carries and these touches now that he's been
viewed as a full participant on Friday. So I also
think you can look at Crosskey Merrit over his rushing again.
He's getting all the work and this is a Bears
rush defense that struggles mightily. But yeah, I like a
big game from Crosskey Merrit here. And I really don't
know a whole lot what to expect from Jane Daniels
or Caleb Williams as far as health wise. They're both
expected to play, they're both expected to play the full game,
both dealing with a little nicked up injuries. But like
we always say, they're good enough to play for their team,
they're good enough for us to bet on in props.
So all right, we've lost Andrew. Andrew has lost his
power completely. But again, Andrew has his NHL NHL pack
that is up. He's got his NFL best bets that
are up for Monday Night football. And I've got one
best bet that's the only play I need to turn
a profit today. W t up buzz slash al. From
the beginning of the week, this has been my favorite
prop for the entire week. So we're hitting about fifty
six percent this season. Get this one home. We're getting
closer to that fifty eight to fifty nine percent goal
that we've had. We're off of a five and two
week last week, and the big thing, we're seven to
one in primetime games. I don't know why we've been
seeing the primetime game so well, but it's just been
working for us. So cash with us. These are plays
that we bet with our money and get their shortcut.
W t up buzz slash al. All right, hit the
like button and leave a comment in the comments section.
You know I love reading those comments. Tell us if
you agree or disagree with anything we've said today, and
give me your props. Maybe a same game parlay as well.
Thanks for joining us, everyone, This is props in parlay.
Shout out to Android. Know he's got a busy, busy
day ahead of him. Bummer on, Bummer on the power,
but it's going to be a busy day in NHL.
You can catch him and Carmine on puck Time coming
up here in about eleven o'clock Eastern, and you can
catch the replay on wager talk to YouTube channel. Thanks
very much, we'll be back next week. Good luck on
your bet tonpe. Take care,