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Speaker 1: Welcome Ember. When to props and parlays. We got two

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Monday night football game to break down from a props

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betting standpoint Bill's at Falcons Bears at Commanders. I am

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your host, Andy Lang, being joined as always by my

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fellow props betting expert Andrew McGinnis. Andrew, are you aware

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how close we were to hitting last week's seventeen to

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one same game parlay? We are our guy that got

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a sack, got credited with half a sack if they

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were to credit him with a full sack. We hit

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our seventeen to one, and now we're free rolling for

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the rest of the season. So we're gonna hit the

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same game, Parla.

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Speaker 2: You're telling me even with a sack prop we're getting

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we're getting the point five loss. That's just tough, and

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so it begs the question would we have rather have

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barely lost that or come not even close? That's the question.

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I think we're getting one step closer. This week is

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the week, looking forward to it and gonna be a

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great Monday here, Andy.

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Speaker 1: I want to be creeping up on it. I want

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to know we're getting played. I don't. I want to know,

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or at least in the ballpark of hitting some of these.

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So well, while we're doing this, guys, please hit the

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like button real quick. Takes one second, just be hit

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the like button. And let's start with the Bills and

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at the Falcons, and this is the game. We're gonna

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do the same game, Parlay, and I just want to

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start with the passing props here, Andrew and on paper

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by position in fantasy, these are the two best passing defenses.

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But take it with a grain of salt here, Andrew,

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because the Bills have faced Lamar Jackson, who torched them

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in Week one, but most of that was Derrick Henry.

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Then they faced Justin Fields, then Tua, then Spencer Rattler,

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and then they faced Drake may and Drake May had

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about two hundred and seventy five yards, so not great

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as far as the level of competition. And you know,

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the Falcons kind of a little bit of the same

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thing here. They faced Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield had

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a good game, but then JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young, they

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faced Washington that was Marcus Mariota. So I'm not gonna

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be too concerned about what the ranking is of these

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passing defenses. So I'll go first, and I am gonna

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take Michael Pennix over this two twenty four and a

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half passing. He went under in two blowouts, but he

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went over in two games that were one score of games.

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And I have the Falcons plus four in my megapick

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pick five here, Andrew. I think this is gonna be

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a really close game. I think there's gonna be times

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where the Falcons need him to throw. I love this

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two twenty four and a half. Then I'm gonna keep

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riding the streak with Josh Allen. He's going over this

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one and a half passing touchdowns, gone over in four

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out of five. The only game he didn't was a

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blowout against the Jets. It feels like they're running with

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James cook In when they get in close this year

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to the end zone. But then there's a lot of

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Josh Allen passing touchdowns. He's hitting at a much higher

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click than he was last year. So Penix overyards Josh

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Allen over passing touchdowns. What do you think about passing

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props in this one?

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Speaker 2: I think the only thing that gets in the way

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of your passing touchdown prop there is his own legs

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getting the ball into the touch of the end zone

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on his own, because that you know it, either he

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gets a touchdown or he goes over one and a half.

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Sometimes even both can happen. I'll say I do like

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Josh Allen just over his number. I locked in two

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twenty seven and a half. As far as his passing yards,

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I got Atlanta's secondary ranking bottom ten and completion rate allowed. So,

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like you mentioned, some decent defensive stuff to look at

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for both these teams, but they are giving up a

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ton of passes. And with Josh Allen, you give him

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enough time, you let him complete enough passes, he's gonna

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start killing you deep downfield. And although I was tempted

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by the completions, I do think that this number is

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good enough for me to look at the yards as

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a whole.

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Speaker 3: Now, I do, of course, expect.

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Speaker 2: Atlanta to be down and when I look at this

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one here, I thought it was interesting.

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Speaker 3: The last couple weeks, Buffalo's pass.

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Speaker 2: Defense has allowed seven point seven passing yards per attempt,

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second worst over the last few weeks here, Andy.

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Speaker 3: So there's two bets that I like.

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Speaker 2: Number One, I like the completions for Pennix Junior because

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I do think that they're gonna be trailing, they're gonna

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have to throw the ball a lot, even though early

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in the game they're gonna try and do their best

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to run the ball. But I'm going back to a

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prop that started off slow for me this year and

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has certainly picked it up. We're gonna go with the

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longest completion over thirty three and a half. Right now,

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we're seeing sixty nine as the highest from him, but

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also we're seeing thirty forty fifty on pretty much a

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consistent basis over the past handful of weeks from him,

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and in the position. The funny thing is, for him,

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it's usually garbage time, or it's usually late in the

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game when it doesn't actually end up leading to a

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touchdown or anything like that. But with the number of

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completions this Bills team is currently giving up when it's

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gets to a certain point in the game, I think

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they're gonna have to stop throwing or running the ball.

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Then all of a sudden, you start airing it out.

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It opens up opportunities. So thirty three and a half

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is the number. I like it there, and I'm interested

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in that completions for him as well. But we'll go

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with probably the best bet for the passing one would

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be Josh Allen, just simply because I think he is

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going to get to the secondary of the Elkins.

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Speaker 1: We'll move on to the receiving props in this one,

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and I think my favorite one is Darnell Mooney has

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been officially ruled out, so I'm going to go right

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back to Kyle Pitts over three and a half receptions.

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It's pretty simple going over this in every game this

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season without Mooney, it's Drake London and it's Kyle Pitts,

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and I don't need to overthink this one. So as

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all the books are hanging three and a half, and

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they're in a tough spot because if they move it

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up to four and a half, now you're looking at

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juice to the under. So I think they're kind of

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skating by on this one, but I'll keep writing Kyle

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Pits over this one again. You and I expect this

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game to be close. We expect there to be a

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good amount of yards here, So Kyle puts over his receptions,

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and then Josh Palmer, if you want to dig a

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little bit deeper, this is kind of one of those

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hidden gems. Over eighteen and a half yards receiving it's

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so low, but I'll give you two Josh Palmer props

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here Andrew. Josh Palmer over eighteen and a half receiving

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and over twelve and a half on his longest catch.

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He's smoked this total four out of five games in

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both categories, so and in fact, one catch has gotten

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him over eighteen and a half yards just on his

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receiving total in some of these games. So when he

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catches a ball it listen, He's not high volume, but

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it's definitely quality over quantity for Josh Palmer. And as

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long as this thing is below twenty, I'll keep playing it.

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So Kyle Pittsover's receptions, Josh Palmer over his receiving and

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his longest catch total. What do you think about these

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receiving props?

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Speaker 2: There's just one that I'm gonna give out, and I

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like this one quite a bit here and Andy. Some

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of these apps and these websites that we look at

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when we're doing our prop work, they really help us

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figure out which route runners teams don't do well against,

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you know, and which positions on the field they aren't

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doing well against.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 2: Looking at things right now, it looks like we have

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a Falcons team that just doesn't do well against slot receivers.

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Khalila Shakir over forty seven and a half receiving yards

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I think is a.

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Speaker 3: Really really good bet here.

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Speaker 2: Falcon slot coverage allowing nine point four yards per target,

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and the couple guys that are involved in that area

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for them are right now amongst the worst in the

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entire league at their position. They're they're giving up a

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lot of short yardage plays and Kaloa Shakir that's how

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he picks up all his numbers except for it's not

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too much short yardage for him. They're giving up nine

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point four yards to this position, to this route that

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Shakir likes to.

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Speaker 3: Run on and on and on all game long.

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Speaker 2: So you could look towards receptions as well, But when

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I see a number like that nine yards per target,

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I feel like just looking at the yards for him.

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So I am interested in that. That is what probably

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my free play of the day as far as this

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game is concerned. But you mentioned Josh Palmer. I want

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to ask you, Andy, is is he a guy that

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because I have a buddy that keeps betting him as well?

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Is he a receptions guy or a yards guy for

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you right now, because I feel like she's been on

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and off where I'm like, ah, this game is receptions,

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and then I'm like, no, it's gotta be yards, just

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because there could be one huge one that makes it

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every But he was someone I looked at as well.

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And then I'll tell you I kind of wanted to

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be a little bit well, not contrarian, I guess, but

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go towards the under on pits just because I feel

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like there he's not really a guy that's catching any

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deep balls, and unless he's kind of ends up just

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being that safety guy, I feel like they're gonna need more,

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you know, someone catching deeper balls, and he's gonna probably

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be used for blocking.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Under three and a half receptions for him plus one

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oh five is interesting. But yeah, there's a couple of

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guys today, like you mentioned the Palmer one. I think

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he's only a yards guy and not our receptions guy.

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So that could be one of those ones tonight where

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we look towards under receptions over yards.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I love this the same game parlay on one

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of these things. Yeah, you know what with Palmer, it's

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you know, it's the best of both worlds. If he

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catches a lot more passes than normal, he's gonna probably

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go over his yards. But he's a bigger play guy.

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He's one of those where it's like, oh, busted coverage.

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There's Josh Palmer wide open for twenty eight yards, and

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you know he ends the game with two catches for

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thirty five yards. But yeah, if you're taking the receptions,

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then he may have one for one for thirty and

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you're like, why didn't I just take the yards? So

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with Palmer, it's it's just about the yards for me

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on that one. So let's move to rushing again. On paper,

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Buffalo's second best rush offense, Atlanta eighth best rush offense.

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So you got some pretty good rushing offenses here. And

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I think the books know this because I see I

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think these lines are very dialed in. The only one

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that I that I'm kind of gravitating towards. And this

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might be a play every week. Josh Allen over thirteen

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and a half longest rush. You only did this six

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times last year, Andrew, and he's done it four games

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in a row. It's like this offense has some more

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explosive plays in the running game. I went back and

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looked at their yards per play. They're ahead of last

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year's average, and last year's average was lastyear was a

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very explosive offense, and they're even doing it again this year.

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So it's really the only time the only rushing prop

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I really liked in this one. I took a look

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at James Cook over rush attempts, but they got this

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thing kind of high, and he went under in the

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in the game they were behind against Baltimore. He went

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under in the loss against the Patriots. So and then

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I can't figure out the Falcons running backs. I won't

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have a bet on an Atlanta Falcons running back for

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the rest of the year. I just I already know

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that I can't figure out Robinson. I can't figure out Algier.

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So Josh Allen, keep an eye on this over longest rush.

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What do you think about rushing props.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take under fifteen and a half attempts

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for b John Robinson. It's obviously not a great odds there.

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I guess you'd say it's leaning towards one twenty five,

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one point thirty. Now, I just think it's going to

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get to a point in the game they're going to

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be throwing the ball consistently. Look, I think it's gonna

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be somewhat close, but I do think the Bills start

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to separate, and I think that with the chunk yardage

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is where they're going to have the success. And if

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I like some passing props and some completions and stuff

241
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at the quarterback position, then I kind of do lean

242
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,159
towards some unders. And the best part about this attempts

243
00:10:59,159 --> 00:11:02,559
one here, guys, is that realistically, we could see Robinson

244
00:11:02,879 --> 00:11:05,000
break off for a huge play. We could see him

245
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,559
get into the end zone on a running play, but

246
00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:10,120
we're all just looking at the attempts here in this one.

247
00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:13,360
And that's all I'm really concerned about. But okay, and

248
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,799
I'm gonna throw this at you. I know some people

249
00:11:15,879 --> 00:11:17,919
might not care about these type of trends, but Josh

250
00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:19,919
Allen rushing guards, I feel like I've had a really

251
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,679
good read on him a lot of times. I do

252
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,200
like looking at him in big games when they're somewhat

253
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,080
of a close spread, obviously.

254
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 3: Here being three and a half. But this got interesting.

255
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,159
Speaker 2: He has gone over thirty three and a half rushing

256
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,240
guards in four of his last five primetime games, So take.

257
00:11:37,159 --> 00:11:38,200
Speaker 3: That one, and.

258
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,799
Speaker 2: If you don't care about that one, this one's kind

259
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,559
of interesting. Alan scramble rate jumps up to seventeen percent

260
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:49,120
against man heavy defenses, and Falcons run man on man

261
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,759
fifty percent of the snaps. This is a guy I

262
00:11:51,799 --> 00:11:55,159
think that right now he has been I mean, you

263
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,519
talk about the longest rush, which certainly has been hitting,

264
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:00,399
but he's been pretty smart about his rushes, like he's

265
00:12:00,399 --> 00:12:03,120
not taking as much contact as he used to. He's

266
00:12:03,159 --> 00:12:06,840
seeing the holes and using them and then sliding, which

267
00:12:06,919 --> 00:12:08,399
I'm sure coaches are happy.

268
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:09,440
Speaker 3: To see him protecting his safety.

269
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,240
Speaker 2: But what people don't realize is like, as much as

270
00:12:12,279 --> 00:12:13,879
I want, of course you to hit that play, and

271
00:12:13,919 --> 00:12:15,879
he is breaking off for one big play. It seems

272
00:12:15,879 --> 00:12:18,360
like on the ground most games with a number like

273
00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:20,519
thirty three and a half, all you need is Josh

274
00:12:20,519 --> 00:12:22,679
Allen to get to like six or seven, I think,

275
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:24,879
and you're gonna get it. It's just the chunk rushing

276
00:12:24,919 --> 00:12:27,360
yards that I really think you need. So I think

277
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,840
he gets this one here, and hey, you know what,

278
00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:32,919
I don't really mind that primetime trend.

279
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,799
Speaker 3: It's okay with me. I'll take it. It's a unique.

280
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,120
Speaker 2: It's a different day you know these guys play on Sundays,

281
00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:40,080
a different day to play football.

282
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,200
Speaker 1: Hey, listen Corbyn, who we do our show? It calls

283
00:12:44,279 --> 00:12:46,639
him greedy Josh Allen, It's like, yeah, take us over

284
00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:49,120
on primetime games, taking him a score, a touchdown, taking

285
00:12:49,159 --> 00:12:52,639
his rushing props. He loves showing off in primetime games,

286
00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:54,480
which works great for us. Prop Better is if we

287
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,159
can find those trends. So that's a great find on

288
00:12:57,399 --> 00:13:02,279
prime time games for Josh Allen. I couldn't really find

289
00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:05,960
a whole out for anytime touchdown props. The price has

290
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,440
gone down on James Cook. Obviously he was at an

291
00:13:08,519 --> 00:13:11,840
unsustainable rate. The price got out of control after the

292
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,399
first three weeks for Jalen Hurts and we laid off

293
00:13:14,399 --> 00:13:16,559
of it for clients. Two weeks in a row, price

294
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,600
got down to minus one thirty, so we fired on it.

295
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,440
This weekend. He went in. I feel like the books

296
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,879
are giving us a little bit of a discount on

297
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,879
James Cook. He was up to minus two hundred and now

298
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:26,720
he was down to minus one fifty. I think I'd

299
00:13:26,759 --> 00:13:29,840
go back to James Cook anytime touchdown, but nothing with

300
00:13:29,919 --> 00:13:32,440
any any big time confidence. What do you think about

301
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:33,240
touchdown props.

302
00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,039
Speaker 2: Let me just drop a bomb on you really quick here.

303
00:13:36,039 --> 00:13:39,039
And you're talking about Corbyn's nickname for Josh Allen.

304
00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:41,440
Speaker 3: Well, I'm gonna ride with that nickname here.

305
00:13:41,759 --> 00:13:45,919
Speaker 2: Let's go five to one, not one, but two rushing

306
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:50,279
touchdowns for Josh Allen. We haven't really given out many

307
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,480
two plus touchdowns on the show here since the CEMAC

308
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,759
days when Christian McCaffrey was doing that, and it was

309
00:13:56,799 --> 00:13:59,320
like a minus one thirty just to get in the

310
00:13:59,399 --> 00:14:00,879
end zone here at least.

311
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,600
Speaker 3: So five to one on that one here, And.

312
00:14:03,759 --> 00:14:06,120
Speaker 2: I gotta say, if I think that Shakiir is gonna

313
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,159
be someone that gets targeted quite a bit, that plus

314
00:14:08,159 --> 00:14:10,200
two to twenty number is pretty interesting to look at

315
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,720
as well, So kind of more of a fun one

316
00:14:12,799 --> 00:14:14,360
and then one that I'll probably take a little more

317
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,080
serious with that Shakir prop.

318
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,600
Speaker 1: All Right, it's time to build a same game parlay.

319
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,120
We were one statistician away from giving our guy a

320
00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:27,960
full sack instead of a half sack last week, so

321
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,360
we each get one leg, we end up with a

322
00:14:30,399 --> 00:14:33,679
four leg same game Parla parlay. I will go first here.

323
00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:35,840
I'm gonna go the Falcons over twenty two and a

324
00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:38,480
half on their team total. They had a thirty to

325
00:14:38,559 --> 00:14:41,240
zero loss to the Panthers. They came back scored thirty

326
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,360
four the next week at home, and the Bills have

327
00:14:43,399 --> 00:14:46,279
played three bad offenses and they held them under. Jets, Dolphins,

328
00:14:46,279 --> 00:14:49,799
and Saints. Ravens flew over, Patriots went over against them.

329
00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,600
I like this Falcons team at home prime time. Give

330
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,519
me a give me the Falcons over two. I'm sorry,

331
00:14:55,519 --> 00:14:58,039
Falcons over twenty two and a half on the team total.

332
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,559
As my first leg, your first leg, let's.

333
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,240
Speaker 3: Get on the board here.

334
00:15:02,279 --> 00:15:06,039
Speaker 2: With just over two hundred and twenty plus passing yards

335
00:15:06,039 --> 00:15:07,519
for Josh Allen here, I think it's gonna be a

336
00:15:07,519 --> 00:15:09,399
good night for him. I think we're gonna see him,

337
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,799
you know, get after the secondary of this Atlanta team,

338
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,080
and uh, they are giving up a lot of yards

339
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,279
per pass right now. And this is a team I

340
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,000
think that even though they're rested and they're feeling of

341
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:21,879
coming into this game, I think Josh Allen should be

342
00:15:21,879 --> 00:15:24,200
able to get some damage again. So we we'll squeeze

343
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,120
it down a little bit and we'll go to twenty.

344
00:15:27,679 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 1: All right, I am going to go with the Josh

345
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,799
Palmer theme and I'm gonna take him at plus one

346
00:15:34,919 --> 00:15:38,279
forty one to have twenty five plus yards. I mean,

347
00:15:38,279 --> 00:15:40,559
he's averaging thirty four point eight and I'm getting plus

348
00:15:40,559 --> 00:15:44,000
one forty one on the twenty five plus. So this

349
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,320
is one play for a guy like this. So if

350
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,360
you think if you think Josh Allen's gonna go over,

351
00:15:48,399 --> 00:15:50,879
I gotta think Palmer is gonna be gonna be involved

352
00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:52,799
in this one. So all right, we have falcons over

353
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,000
twenty two and a half on their team total, Josh

354
00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,279
Allen two twenty plus on the passing yards, and Josh

355
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,480
Palmer twenty five plus receiving yards. Last, what do you

356
00:16:00,559 --> 00:16:01,080
got for us?

357
00:16:02,399 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 2: You know, Andy, I'm really confident in the Shakir one

358
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,639
I mentioned. It's my free play of the day. Let's

359
00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,559
rock with it. No alternate number. We're gonna go over

360
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,320
on his receiving yards. I just think he gets targeted

361
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,879
a ton. I feel like they do very poor against

362
00:16:16,879 --> 00:16:19,960
his slot coverage, and hopefully he has a huge day

363
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,480
for us. This is one of those ones where you

364
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,200
could play receptions or yards, but I'm just confident with

365
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,000
how many yards they're giving up to the spot that

366
00:16:27,039 --> 00:16:27,759
he likes to go to.

367
00:16:27,919 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 3: So I feel good about this week's parlay, man, I do.

368
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,679
Speaker 1: Seven to one. Very disciplined approach by us, Very very disciplined.

369
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,720
Let's just let's just let's just get on the board here.

370
00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:40,279
Sometimes you just need to see one go in. So

371
00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:42,879
the same game parlay as the team total over twenty

372
00:16:42,919 --> 00:16:45,200
two and a half, Josh Allen two and twenty plus

373
00:16:45,639 --> 00:16:48,879
two hundred and twenty plus passing yards, Josh Palmer twenty

374
00:16:48,879 --> 00:16:53,320
five plus receiving yards, and Shakir over his receiving yards.

375
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,480
I've got that locked in at forty seven and a

376
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,240
half and a seven to one. All right, great job

377
00:16:58,279 --> 00:17:01,559
on the same game parlay. Let's get reasonable, Yeah, reasonable

378
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,400
reasonable Guys. In the comments section, give us your favorite

379
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,200
prop for tonight. Give us your thoughts on some of

380
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,400
the props going over. What do you like in this game?

381
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,440
What do you like in the Bears game? Before we

382
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,400
do that again, hit the like button, guys. It really

383
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,160
helps the algorithm out. You know how the algorithm boost works. Andrew,

384
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,599
what do you have up for clients? And but wager

385
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:18,039
talk today? You got a busy day with all the

386
00:17:18,039 --> 00:17:19,000
hockey starting early.

387
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is a really busy day. The NHL schedule makers.

388
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,039
Look you you know I'm the biggest hockey fan there is.

389
00:17:26,079 --> 00:17:27,839
There's one thing that they're bad at. It's marketing.

390
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:34,559
Speaker 1: So oh we lost.

391
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:35,039
Speaker 3: We lost.

392
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 1: The other thing they're bad at having Wi Fi apparently,

393
00:17:38,039 --> 00:17:42,359
Andy geez Internet. All right, so here's what do you have?

394
00:17:43,559 --> 00:17:43,880
Speaker 3: All Right?

395
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,799
Speaker 1: Well, I'll talk about what Andrew has. So hockey starts

396
00:17:46,839 --> 00:17:50,039
at like one pm Eastern time because it's Canadian Thanksgiving,

397
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,319
and uh, there's a bunch of games. And Andrew has

398
00:17:52,319 --> 00:17:55,839
a loaded slate for NHL. He also has his NFL

399
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:57,799
best bet that is up for tonight. I believe he

400
00:17:57,799 --> 00:17:59,960
has two of them. There's a prop and a side,

401
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,319
so that's up at wager talk. I have one NFL

402
00:18:03,559 --> 00:18:05,599
prop and it's been my favorite one of the week

403
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,359
that we locked in, so I have that up. We're

404
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,519
four and three this week on props. It's been a

405
00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:13,200
really good run. That makes us on a twelve and

406
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:16,000
six run on props, and the best part, we're on

407
00:18:16,039 --> 00:18:18,920
a seven and one primetime run. We're like Josh Allen,

408
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,920
we've been seeing these primetime games really really well. So

409
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,640
you wanna cash with us tonight, go ahead and cash

410
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,279
on this one prop that we have. So, like I said,

411
00:18:28,279 --> 00:18:30,119
we're four and three. This week we get this one home.

412
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:31,680
We're five and three and we are well on our

413
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,480
way to that season goal of fifty eight to fifty

414
00:18:34,559 --> 00:18:38,640
nine percent on props. That is over at WT dot

415
00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:42,559
buzz slash al over at wager talk dot com. And

416
00:18:42,599 --> 00:18:45,319
don't forget we got five dollars Tuesday coming up tomorrow.

417
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,279
All handicappers will have a five dollars play up. It's

418
00:18:48,319 --> 00:18:52,519
the last week of Contender Series. So what's five dollars Tuesday?

419
00:18:52,519 --> 00:18:54,720
Play comes up on Contender Series. Lock it in and

420
00:18:54,759 --> 00:18:57,519
we finish out Contender Series strong. So we're waiting for

421
00:18:57,559 --> 00:19:00,000
Andrew to jump back in here. So I will just

422
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:05,400
jump ahead to the Bears at the Commanders here and

423
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,799
we will start with the passing props again. You guys

424
00:19:09,839 --> 00:19:12,759
know I love my no interceptions props. We lost one

425
00:19:12,839 --> 00:19:15,680
yesterday on Jordan Love, but I think you can look

426
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,440
at Jayden Daniels not to have an interception. He doesn't

427
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,599
have any this season. My only worri is the Bears

428
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:26,119
have been very good about interceptions. They have seven interceptions

429
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,480
on defense this season. I've talked about Caleb Williams not

430
00:19:29,559 --> 00:19:32,319
throwing an interception. I will still keep riding it. He's

431
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,200
two and two on this one, so we've gotten juiced

432
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:35,960
a little bit on that one. But I'm going to

433
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,240
continue to ride the trend that he will figure it

434
00:19:38,279 --> 00:19:40,160
out and stop throwing the ball to the other team.

435
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,400
And I'm also looking at Caleb Williams over two hundred

436
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,880
and thirty three and a half. Passing commanders give up

437
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,799
about two hundred and fifty four per game. The Bears

438
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,480
have had a week off to prepare and get their

439
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,960
offense a little bit more dialed in, and the only

440
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,319
other team in the bottom twenty in pass defense that

441
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,640
he faced he had two hundred and ninety eight. So

442
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,400
take a little sprinkle on Caleb Williams over two thirty

443
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,400
three and a half. It's not it's not the most

444
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,000
confident play in the world, but I will go ahead

445
00:20:09,079 --> 00:20:13,640
and roll with that one. So all right. Receiving props.

446
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,839
Deebo Samuel is banged up. I don't even know if

447
00:20:15,839 --> 00:20:19,599
he's gonna play tonight. It's kind of a game time decision.

448
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,079
He popped up late on the injury report. I'm gonna

449
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,720
take his under five and a half reception if he

450
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,200
doesn't play you're gonna get a void. But if he

451
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,119
does play, is he gonna be one hundred percent? So

452
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,079
I'll take under five and a half receptions and at

453
00:20:31,079 --> 00:20:33,880
piggyback off that, Luke McCaffrey over twenty eight and a

454
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,200
half receiving. There are so many injuries to the Commander's

455
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,079
wide receiving corps. You've got Terry mccorran, who's out. You

456
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,720
got Debo who's out. Debo at eleven targets last week.

457
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,599
So Luke McCaffrey may be the last wide receiver standing

458
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,680
to get all these targets. So is he an elite

459
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,880
talent at the wide receiver position. No, but sometimes pure

460
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,720
volume is gonna get you there. So Luke McCaffrey over there.

461
00:20:57,279 --> 00:21:00,640
And then we talked about room ad. I mean, I

462
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,160
like a lot of receiving props in this game. We

463
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,119
talked about Roma doonsday. But it's sneaky Dj Moore over

464
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,359
three and a half receptions. He's had four, four and

465
00:21:09,519 --> 00:21:13,039
five the last three games. He's getting five plus targets

466
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,279
each game. And Caleb, he can be a little wild

467
00:21:16,319 --> 00:21:18,880
with the ball, but DJ Moore is catching more of

468
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,720
the shorter passes, so he's kind of more of the

469
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,640
checkdown guy. So over three and a half receptions for

470
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,599
DJ Moore again, I would expect this game to be

471
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,519
really close. I don't expect the blowout on either way,

472
00:21:29,559 --> 00:21:31,680
which which forces the team out of their game plan.

473
00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:34,319
And then a krossky Merritt. I think this is a

474
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,079
bargain here. Over eight and a half receiving. He has

475
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,240
cemented himself as the number one back in Washington, and

476
00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:42,759
he's had two catches each of the last two weeks

477
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,119
and he's gone over this total in those two weeks.

478
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,359
So you give me two catches for krossky Merrit, he's

479
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:48,960
going to go over this eight and a half receiving.

480
00:21:49,079 --> 00:21:50,880
I think last week he had like thirty eight yards.

481
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,839
So I mean, this is one of those numbers that

482
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,160
I love because it's one play. You can get a

483
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,319
screen pass and go for eleven twelve yards and you've

484
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,920
cashed it, and then you get the second the second catch,

485
00:22:01,039 --> 00:22:03,720
which is just icing on the cake. We moved to

486
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,559
rushing and I'm gonna take us break along DeAndre Swift

487
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,240
under thirteen and a half rush attempts. The Commanders give

488
00:22:12,319 --> 00:22:15,960
up twenty three plus rush attempts per game. But Caleb

489
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,319
william has twenty six rushes on the season, and Manong

490
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,200
Guy has had seventeen carries the last four games. He

491
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,039
popped up on the injury report this week, but he

492
00:22:24,079 --> 00:22:28,319
was a full participant in Friday. So DeAndre Swift has

493
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,039
not a no pun intended run away with this Bear's

494
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,000
lead back rushing job like he's been. Okay, don't be

495
00:22:36,079 --> 00:22:39,160
surprised if Manong Guy gets a few more of these

496
00:22:39,319 --> 00:22:41,920
of these carries and these touches now that he's been

497
00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:45,279
viewed as a full participant on Friday. So I also

498
00:22:45,279 --> 00:22:48,079
think you can look at Crosskey Merrit over his rushing again.

499
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:49,920
He's getting all the work and this is a Bears

500
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,400
rush defense that struggles mightily. But yeah, I like a

501
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,160
big game from Crosskey Merrit here. And I really don't

502
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,680
know a whole lot what to expect from Jane Daniels

503
00:22:59,799 --> 00:23:02,480
or Caleb Williams as far as health wise. They're both

504
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,000
expected to play, they're both expected to play the full game,

505
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,400
both dealing with a little nicked up injuries. But like

506
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,720
we always say, they're good enough to play for their team,

507
00:23:09,759 --> 00:23:12,480
they're good enough for us to bet on in props.

508
00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:15,680
So all right, we've lost Andrew. Andrew has lost his

509
00:23:15,839 --> 00:23:20,359
power completely. But again, Andrew has his NHL NHL pack

510
00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:22,880
that is up. He's got his NFL best bets that

511
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,480
are up for Monday Night football. And I've got one

512
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,880
best bet that's the only play I need to turn

513
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,039
a profit today. W t up buzz slash al. From

514
00:23:31,039 --> 00:23:33,079
the beginning of the week, this has been my favorite

515
00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:36,279
prop for the entire week. So we're hitting about fifty

516
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,359
six percent this season. Get this one home. We're getting

517
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,519
closer to that fifty eight to fifty nine percent goal

518
00:23:41,559 --> 00:23:43,680
that we've had. We're off of a five and two

519
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,680
week last week, and the big thing, we're seven to

520
00:23:45,759 --> 00:23:47,759
one in primetime games. I don't know why we've been

521
00:23:47,799 --> 00:23:50,240
seeing the primetime game so well, but it's just been

522
00:23:50,279 --> 00:23:52,480
working for us. So cash with us. These are plays

523
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,480
that we bet with our money and get their shortcut.

524
00:23:54,799 --> 00:23:57,400
W t up buzz slash al. All right, hit the

525
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,799
like button and leave a comment in the comments section.

526
00:23:59,799 --> 00:24:01,880
You know I love reading those comments. Tell us if

527
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,000
you agree or disagree with anything we've said today, and

528
00:24:05,319 --> 00:24:07,880
give me your props. Maybe a same game parlay as well.

529
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,920
Thanks for joining us, everyone, This is props in parlay.

530
00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:13,079
Shout out to Android. Know he's got a busy, busy

531
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:17,079
day ahead of him. Bummer on, Bummer on the power,

532
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,559
but it's going to be a busy day in NHL.

533
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,240
You can catch him and Carmine on puck Time coming

534
00:24:23,319 --> 00:24:26,119
up here in about eleven o'clock Eastern, and you can

535
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,559
catch the replay on wager talk to YouTube channel. Thanks

536
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,359
very much, we'll be back next week. Good luck on

537
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:31,400
your bet tonpe. Take care,