Speaker 1: Welcome in to wager Talk's the last call Kelly Stewart Here,
we're scrambling this morning. Art to Caesar just sent me
what feels like forty basketball games, and I was trying
to get all these bets in before the show started.
I'm not kidding. Look how long that list is, very
very long. We're gonna get into that, but first John
need the Greek waiting the wings. We don't want to
keep him waiting too long because he's a busy man.
He's got things to do over at wager.
Speaker 2: Talk dot com v R.
Speaker 1: How do you want to do this morning? You want
to go through what you've got? You want to go
through arts?
Speaker 3: Got Yeah, yes, start off with art art because we've
just been on fire Man. I got so much good
information for the viewers today. It'll be like sure with
Dynamite today. So yeah, Art to them. We'll take it
from there.
Speaker 1: The comment section is calling me an Hoa Karen because
I made the mistake of telling everybody that I'm now
hoa president uh in.
Speaker 2: My community control things because I get shipped done. Guys.
You know what We're gonna get shipped done here this morning.
We're gonna make some money today.
Speaker 1: That is at least my over a plan sharp Action
Art to Caesar Westgates super Book. Make sure you guys
get your pen and paper ready, because boy, oh boy,
is this a lot. And then I want to kind
of cover what VR's got to see if there is
some similarities.
Speaker 2: We're gonna start off right off the top.
Speaker 1: And I apologize, guys, Art did not send me rotation numbers,
so please please please bear with me.
Speaker 2: I will go slow.
Speaker 1: Providence plus four and a half, Kansas State plus four
and a half, New Mexico State plus five and a half,
Belmont minus thirteen and a half, Louisiana Lafayette plus eleven
and a half, Murray State plus six, Rutgers plus twelve,
Utsa plus twenty four, Maryland plus nineteen, Oregon State minus
two and a half. De Paul plus seven and a half.
You see San Diego minus five and a half, U
Mass plus eleven and a half, cal Bakersfield minus two,
Cincinnati plus eight and a half, Rice plus two and
a half, Valparizo plus five and a half. And the
team that I call Bobby Mo Robert Morris pick'em. So
I'll go over those again here later on through the
show as well as Arts best bet that he gave me.
But we got to get in and here what VR's
got to say, not only about college basketball today, but
what else is going on with him.
Speaker 2: Over at wagers talk dot com.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so far, a lot of confirmation.
Speaker 3: You gotta remember a lot of this theme that they're
getting at Westgate. They put up early numbers like they're
willing to take a bet, they're willing to have an opinion.
So you got to remember, just like they put out
the look aheads with the NFL, somebody's get hit just
until the number gets shaped into where it should be
and then there's not followed through, so they get hit
with some steam that you don't see. Also get hit
like across the screen. And then there's some of the
signs that do that you see follow through. Some of
the signs that I saw some of the groups hit
again today that line up with what Art said was
the Robert Morris at plus one and a half too
minus one, Cincinnati Cincinnati from plus nine all the way
down the plus seven and a half and Rice Rice
from plus three plus two and a half, utsa plus
twenty four, and that U Masus plus eleven and a
half and twelve. We had Rutgers plus twelve, Kansas State
plus five and four and a half, and Ull plus
eleven and a half and eleven. So those lined up
with exactly what Art had to say.
Speaker 4: And that's good. That's what you want to see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Because what you're essentially saying, VR is that not
only the groups that are playing at the west Gate, right,
the groups that are asking me to move some of
these games for them are also putting into other accounts.
So we're gonna go ahead and assume, and I never
want to do that, but I'm gonna ahead and assume
these are not fake plays.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 1: What I've been getting is a really good group of
sharp totals, and I think we've had one lose out
of like the last nine or ten. The guy has
been on fire. Granted, I'm not getting the best of
the number. By the time I get the information, it's
already a point and a half off, So I've got
to kind of make some decisions at that point in time.
Is it better to wait in game, is a better
to way to halftime or bet at now? The reality is,
though there are fake plays being put in, as you
mentioned at the Westgate, Hey, this got put in early
in the week.
Speaker 2: Can you kind of go.
Speaker 1: Through that process so people understand for basketball season, right,
I know, we still have college football playoff and bowl
games going on before college basketball season.
Speaker 2: What we should be kind of looking at.
Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of people get in
a little bit of trouble trying to chase whether it's
the Odds Logic screen or the wager Talk free odd screen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and right now you're looking at a completely different
market that what it's going to be in about six
weeks from now or when football is over.
Speaker 4: Because up until this.
Speaker 3: Saturday, college basketball has been taking a back seat to football,
mostly used in parlays, mostly primetime standalone games, So it's
been the wise guys versus the sports books primarily. That
changes today with no football really on the board. So
they're now forced not just the parlay, not just the t's,
but they're going to scrape bet these college basketball games
and not just those marquee primetime TV games. That's where
they're at a disadvantage because again they're diving in right
now kind of like we saw I joked about COVID,
where everybody became a handball specialist, all of a sudden
you know.
Speaker 1: And now russ Russian table tennis, KG soccer, that's where
the money is trying to survive.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's where the money is. Yeah, that's what we
were all doing exactly. Now they're diving into this college
basketball today, so you'll see the bettingston gets knowing that,
so they're able now to sit back and some of
these lines today will get pushed from the public, not
from sharp money. Again, two things move lines other than
factors like injury suspensions. It's it's respect an account that
they know wins long term, that gets good closing line
value or a lot of money so they could manage
risk and the public don't get respect, but they bet
a lot of money. And when that starts happening like
it's gonna happen today, some of these lines will get
moved out of whack. So what happens with these bettingson
to gets is early on, as soon as these lines
go up, there's strictly power rated based that's what their
bets are based on. I did this for a long time.
We get now it's a little different. You get a
sheet like this and it would have what we thought
the line should be compared to what whatever they're going
to put up there, what my sheet has and what
the board is off. I have the green light to
bet that's all based on power ratings, and the power
ratings are going to differ from group to group, and
they're really going to differ from what the book has
because they got to follow again the narrative out there
and real quickly not to go along. But a perfect example,
when I look at the rankings, what do I see?
I see Arizona number one, I see Michigan number two,
I see Duke number three. I look at ken Pom,
I see kind of the same thing, Michigan, Iowa State, Gonzaga,
but power rating wise, Duke's number one, power rating wise,
Duke's number one, Gonzaga's number two, Houston's number three. Like
there's they're not even I don't even see Houston. Houston's
barely in the top ten. They're barely in the top
ten on ken Pom's, and they're number seven right now
in the rankings. There's only like two teams that would
be favored over Houston and Gonzaga. May not even Gonzaga
would probably be a pick them against Houston. Duke's the
only team that would be favored over Houston. So not
going to go off on a tangent, but those are
power ratings, and that's what a lot of those early
bets are going to be based on. As that they progresses,
information starts coming in. This player's not one hundred percent
this uh, players not playing like that, more of a handicap,
more information based. Coupled with the public knocking somebody's lines
out of whack, which then opens up value. That's why
don't be scared if you see the line moving up
in one direction then coming back down the other way,
because a lot of times the move was initiated by
public money. They forced the books to adjust. That offered
up some value to wise guys who then come in
and sweep up that value. So again, today's a little
bit different because we're getting an influx of casual betters
that haven't really been mixing it up in college basketball
like they're going to do today. So it's a good
opportunity to make some money, but you got to be
a little bit patient.
Speaker 1: All right, let's kind of get into some more of
the slate for today, but first let everybody know kind
of what's going on different over at wager talk dot com.
A couple of weeks ago, I screwed up and everybody
on the show got a free steam sheet. Not today, guys,
but we're gonna bring that back for those here on
last Johnny did give me the green light to let
everybody know that not only is it a bet on
it special, it is also a last call special ACE
three sixty five. So WT dot buzz backslash ACE three
six five.
Speaker 2: What can they get with that? Right now?
Speaker 3: Vr bro He's we're given like the year for like
three bucks a day, like one hundred bucks a month.
And I said, throw in the blackjack. So the guys
that that because so much of it connects with with
sports as far as risk management and stuff like that,
So throwing the blackjacks so they get the whole course
to be advantage blackjack players. You could learn that, study it,
keep it for the rest of your lives. You have
access to that. So we're throwing that in there as well.
And since starting the steamsheet, life' scotten so good. Like
the results speak for themselves again, not to tell, but
it's been a little while now Number one, last three
seven ten. That's not going to change again. I'm gonna
have losing days, losing weeks, losing months. But now that
I'm able to use the steam sheet to share a
ton of information and only narrow down goal for premium,
that return on investment is going to be a lot
greater than it has been. I will be on the
leaderboard a lot more than in the past because of
the volume. And yesterday was a perfect example. One premium
play that was it sixers minus six. They got us
the money. But for those guys that do handicap their
own stuff. I put a lot of information in the
steam sheet like today. I've only had one premium so
far in college basketball cal but there's ten eleven college
basketball steam plays in there, ten eleven Bowl games in there,
ten eleven NFL games, two NBA three NBA Steam, NHL's coming,
MMA's coming. So all that information for you to decide
what you agree on, what you want to bet and piggyback.
It's for those handicappers out there that want to do
what I do and not just piggyback my opinion. So
jump on board. You get the steamsheet for free, just
for signing up. More or less premium subscribers get it.
You get four of the steam room rooms per month.
Speaker 4: Again, it's a steal. We cannot have going to do
it for long.
Speaker 3: But this three sixty five, I want people to partner
up with me kel for the next year, for twenty
twenty six, so we could meet up every week in
the steam room, do it right, and actually make money
over the next twelve months bet in sports.
Speaker 4: So I'm really excited. Thank you for giving me a
minute to share.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, that's what we're doing here. We are sharing on
this Saturday morning. I already shared a ton of sharp plays.
I will get a few more of those out as
well as Art de Caesar from the West Gates, Suberwooks
best bet for you guys before Steve Merrill comes off.
But we've got a few more minutes with VR here
are you? And I talked about this on bet on
It and I kind of want to get into it
a little bit more. My buddy Steven hit me up
last night and for years I've helped Steven with whether
it's some of his contests in NFL college football, and
he goes, hey, I'm entering that Bowl contest again, do
you want in?
Speaker 2: And I said no, I.
Speaker 1: Said, I just last year I get so frustrated. Well,
first of all, the spreadlocks right, just like every other contest.
So they had problem is once the first game kicks
off like today, guess what all of your selections. Luck,
you can't change it because it's an old school where
you send it in like an Excel sheet. Now, if
it was like an on splash where I could change
it up until kickoff, I might consider it right. But
unfortunately you can't, I said Steven, I'm sorry, I'm out,
I said him, like Mark Lawrence's Ball Guide, and that
was it. I said, good luck, And I kind of
feel that way. Let's kind of talk about bullseason, how
you're going to approach bullseason, what you guys have already
seen for ballseason, and how we should be candicapping what
feels like unhandicappable the Bulls.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll tell you what cal because by this time
of the year, whether we like it or not.
Speaker 4: We've all drawn our conclusions.
Speaker 3: We're all biased on teams that this team's good, this
team sucks like.
Speaker 4: It's hard to change that up.
Speaker 3: When we get this late into the season, and then
between now and the bowl game, we're gonna hear nothing
but noise.
Speaker 4: This team's players aren't playing, this coach.
Speaker 3: Is gone, Like all all these factors that we don't
have to deal with during the regular season, and more importantly,
all these factors that are so impossible to quantify. What
is that actually worth? Like when that coach leaves and
isn't going to be there for the bowl game, what
is it worth? There's worth two points to the ligne,
six points to the line, Like, what is it really
actually worth? Do we have a sample size? That's the problem.
We're all kind of speculating. And the more you speculate,
the more you go out on the risk curve.
Speaker 4: The more you go out on the risk curve, the
more your return needs to be because you're taking on
more risk.
Speaker 3: And in sports betting, unfortunately, we're laying eleven to win
ten pretty much with every single bet, so it's not
like we could change that.
Speaker 4: So you just got to be more selective.
Speaker 3: That's the key with the bowl games, just because it's
the standalone TV game like today with Washington and Boise State, Like,
if you don't feel you have a good bet, you
don't have to get involved.
Speaker 4: That's the key.
Speaker 3: But because it's bowl games, because it's playoffs, because they're
TV games.
Speaker 4: Everybody wants action.
Speaker 3: That's whereas a sharp better you can take advantage of
it as well, because if you're not going to get
ahead of the information, no again, unless this is what
you do, it's hard to get out ahead.
Speaker 4: Of the sportsbooks before they're able to.
Speaker 3: Adjust their lines. So, as I touched on bet on it,
what you have to do to take advantage. Wait till
the information is confirmed, till you know these players are out,
this coach is gone.
Speaker 4: And then when the.
Speaker 3: Market overreacts, because we always do. We think players are
worth more to the line, we think coaches are worth
more to the game, and once we start overreacting, then
you take advantage. That's the best way for recreational betters
to make money during the bowl season. It's hard to
do because it's kind of like I say, without trading,
you got to be able to run into a burning
building when everything's crashing. Do you have are you built
for that? When the stock markets crashing and they're telling
you bitcoins going to zero, China just banned it, FTX
is collapsing, going to prison, do you have the guts
to go in and buy it at eighteen thousand or not?
That's the same thing with sports betting. Do you have
the guts to go up and bet that Tennessee Titans
because of line value? The Raiders because of line value?
We know they suck by this year, this time of
the year. And it's the same with the bowl games.
Speaker 4: Some of these.
Speaker 3: Teams, Hey be twenty thirty point dogs to Ohio States
of College Football, but still you know in a game
by game basis, there's a lot of value to take
advantage of because again betters are going to be betting
these games called that don't haven't been following the teams
all year, don't have the information and just want the action,
and you could take advantage of that. Going anti narrative,
this is where you want to fade the public. Not
in every game, but you don't want to be afraid
to faith. I don't want to say faith the public,
faith the narrative because we tend to overreact when it
comes to ball season.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I try to get ahead of a couple of things VR.
One of them was Clemson.
Speaker 1: I said, all right, I think we are going to
see some pen state opt outs. We laid three with
Clemson at a couple of different spots, and I thought,
you know what, if it comes back, we can bet
the other side. We can bet off of it. There's
not like a massive amount. God all the way up
to five and a half in some shops. And then
somebody said, uh ah, these people are wrong, and I
thought that exact same thing. I'm like, maybe we got
told wrong about the opt outs. We've only seen a
couple so far. We'll see how it ends up playing
out over the next couple of weeks. But we have
historically seen when head coaches leave that the team that's
favored that is more intact right, like a Clemson versus
a Penn State, the line gets so out of control.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter though. It just ends up being a blowout.
Speaker 1: The most recent one that comes to mind that I
had a ton of early money on was like case
eight minus three and a half over LSU. I think
it closed nine and a half or ten. In Case
it didn't matter. Casey just blew out an unmotivated, un
head coached, you.
Speaker 2: Know, LSU team.
Speaker 1: And so when you say, Okay, I'm gonna fade the
narrative because I don't feel like fading. Those types of
narratives have been profitable as of late at least to
recent memory.
Speaker 3: No, And you're right, that's the problem. It's like a
a an individual game by game basis. And again, if
it all comes down to this sample size, you know,
like you said, like over the last couple it hasn't
worked for you. But I think if you go back
further and further, it probably hasn't done.
Speaker 1: I think the big thing is is that this is
still a relatively new concept.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've always had coaches leave, but that's because of
the timing of springball and things like that. But with
nil the transfer portal, I think it's just gotten so
much more significant.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 1: You may have had a Josh Rosen back in the
day at UCLA opt out and you'd see the line
move three points. Fine, the head coach is still there,
the backup quarterback knows the system whatever. But now it's
like the quarterback's opting out, the head coach is gone.
Top three receivers they're running back everybody.
Speaker 3: That's where you got to walk away that those are
fadable because you nailed it. You can only adjust so much,
and and then there's still value fading that, Like you
could still fade that after it's been adjusted, because like
you said, it's new.
Speaker 4: We don't have even the books, don't know what it's worth.
Speaker 3: So don't be afraid to bet that team that just
lost the coach, lost the players even after the adjustment,
because you can only move it so much. It's kind
of like with weather's bad or you know, two stud pitchers.
They're only going to bring the total down so low and.
Speaker 2: Sometimes like a four in Major League Baseball, we'll.
Speaker 6: Never see one five and a half. And when I
first came here, tell the lowest they went was seven.
Picture that, so it didn't matter. There was never a
six and a half. There was no such thing as
a six and a half.
Speaker 3: It was seven's juice to maybe minus one fifty, but
they wouldn't go to sixes. Now you know the mark,
it's kind of become more efficient, and I think you
could do that with college football for.
Speaker 4: A little bit, where they haven't caught up to what
that's worth.
Speaker 3: So yeah, forget on that spot's fading, the narrative, that's fading,
the bay of team.
Speaker 4: I think you're better off.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 1: We broke down Army Navy before we get see Merrill,
we'll waiting for him to pop on here. So we
can let VR get out of here and get to work,
and then we've got Kyle Anthony for UFC. But we
talked about Army Navy on bet on It this week
and I still have not gotten to the window. Our
producer Louis text me just a minute ago when I
was off camera and said, I think I got a
bet Navy, and I thought, oh, I really feel like
this is that sharp square game.
Speaker 2: I understand why everybody likes Navy. I mean, if you.
Speaker 1: Look at the offensive metrics, they're top fifteen in a
ton of different metrics.
Speaker 5: Army.
Speaker 1: I did see that defense though against Kansas State, and
they were able to control the time of possession. So
I keep, you know, going back and forth here, what
are you guys seeing from like a betting perspective.
Speaker 2: Are the sharps.
Speaker 1: Getting involved with this game or is this just one
of those games? Like all right, here's a mild opinion.
If you I really feel like you need to get
involved because it's you know, there's no other Bowl games
on today.
Speaker 3: Army had the toughest strength to schedule and is the
better defense. But obviously Navy, with the record and the offense,
looks like the sexier side. Sharp's got involved when this
line opened up.
Speaker 4: They bet the Navy side at minus four and a
half minus five. That was it.
Speaker 3: Since then, it's been the public that's hitting it. That's
why we're not at seven yet. Had this been Sharp
money at six six and a half, we'd be looking
at seven juice. The reason we're not looking at seven
juice is because the fear of if we go to seven,
are we now going to be sitting in the middle
where we got Navy minus four and a half five,
Army plus seven, this one land six we're paying everybody.
That's what they're fighting right now. How much risk are
they going to take on Navy? Because remember, don't forget,
the teaser is gonna start piling up even though there's
not much to tease it with. There's bowl games ahead
for next week, the week after that playoff college football,
So don't think they're not going to tease this game
down with Navy. Money line parlays down with Navy. So
it's gonna come down to will they go to seven.
If they don't go to seven, that's a telling sign.
On the Army sign, that's a telling, telling sign. So
if you like the Navy sign, what you need to
be paying attention to. You want this to go to seven.
You want this to kickoff at seven, Juice this one
kicks off at six and a half, where worse goes
back to six. I wouldn't be comfortable with that Navy
ticket in my pocket. I want that at seven. Otherwise
I'd be looking to the Army sign because that's the
side I was leaning to. Anyway, I just don't have
that conviction to really bet Army other than like I said,
tougher strength to schedule better defense obviously motivated the Service
Academy type of game. You know, other Army has nothing
else to play for but trying to beat Navy. So
you know there's that motivation. But on paper Navy is
the better team, but with a low total.
Speaker 4: It's take the points.
Speaker 3: Or passed for myself and where this line sits right now?
Like I said, one signed money on Navy, but we're
not looking at seven. To me, it's it's Army or
pass right now. Like I said, if you have Navy,
you want to see seven on that board for sure.
Speaker 1: I got some smartasses in the comments section using case
it as your data point.
Speaker 2: Is it wise? Sorry, Sean, It's the only Army game
I watched all season long. It's just the reality.
Speaker 1: That's the only Army game I watched all season long.
Speaker 2: It is what it is.
Speaker 1: VR, Thank you so much for hanging out with this
every single Saturday here, blessing us with your knowledge, sharp
action and really just making us better, better myself included
ACE three sixty five, that's WT dot buzz backslash ACE
three sixty five that is his special website to go
partner up with him for the entire year, less than
three dollars a day.
Speaker 2: That is the way to do it.
Speaker 1: If you want to link up with vrcause, then you're
getting access to the steamsheet, the steam room, the blackjack course,
and every single premium play he releases agrig Underscore Gambler
on social media. VR is back tomorrow with Ariel Epstein
for another NFL Saturday.
Speaker 2: Thank you, VR.
Speaker 1: We will see you on Wednesday for the next episode
of Beat on It. Let's bring in Steve Merril. He's
gonna answer all of your college basketball questions. There's a
ton of them in the chat, so we're gonna just
get right in it.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Steve Merrill.
Speaker 7: There you go. I so couldn't figure out why my
mouse had been working for the last two weeks since
I traveled for Thanksgiving. And I realized it because a
little USB thing I'd stuck in here was not stuck
into my thing. So just now as I was listening
to Ace finished up, I was like, oh, I'll make
it work, and it kicked off my ring light, my
MIC my connection too much overload. So that's why the
light was off because I just restarted. It's always something.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, you guys didn't know, well, he does wonders
from the handicapping side of things. He's not very good
at technology. That is his that is his one downfall.
Let's kind of get into some of these college basketball
games here for today, Steve Merrill. We're gonna go right
off the top. I'm going all the way back to
the earlier questions. So if you guys have a question,
drop it in the chat and we will get it answered.
First one KSE State plus four and a half here
they are at Creighton. The reason why I bring this
one up, Steve, is because when Art de Caesar sent
me his exhaustive list this morning, I thought, K State
plus four and a half, why would you want to bet
this team that lives and dies by the three. They
were ice cold from three basically at Indiana. That's subsequent
three games, and then they beat Utah, that Mississippi Valley
state of the poor. I don't know women's team. I
don't know what it was. They were laying thirty seven
and a half, blew their doors off, and now all
of a sudden, we want to go back to the
well with this team.
Speaker 2: But like, do you believe in get right spots? Is
that is that? What's going on here is like, oh,
this is a get.
Speaker 1: Right spot for KSE State because they got right versus
a crappy team. Now they've gotten some of the kinks
out able to go in to Creighton and get the win.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of confused here about this line.
Speaker 7: I gave everybody a great free play earlier this week
with your KSE State Wildcats. I used the over ninety
eight and a half team total ooys and it was
it was actually Monday, because I told Joe Matt and
I did last Call Monday, and I put I did
a video for that. There were two games, two ugly
games on Monday night. I did the Texas game against
Southern and this KSE State Mississippi Valley State game, and
as I dug into it more, I really started liking
that team total Over because KSE State had lost four
to row, but their first five wins this year, they'd
scored ninety nine ninety eight or more and three of
the five ninety three or more and four of the
five all five had gone over. They played at the
twelfth fastest pace in the country, and after four losses, Kelly,
you knew they were going to be a foul moots.
I really loved that team total Over. Should have made
it a client play, But you know a lot of
people don't have access still to college basketball team totals.
Even some of the big global books don't offer it.
But to get back to that Mississippi Valley State win,
there are three hundred and sixty five Division one basketball teams.
If you look at Ken Palm or any of the
other metrics you want to use on efficiency, Mississippi Valley
State is the worst Division one college basketball team in
the country this year. Their only win came against MoU
muw and I had to look that one up. It's
obviously not a Division one school Mississippi College for Women,
so I had to go down that rabbit hole, and
I dug even deeper when they were found in the
eighteen seventies. I'm not messing with you. I'm not trying
to get canceled here. It was called the Mississippi Industrial
Institute in College for the education of white girls. I
swear to you that's what this school was called. So
to put it in perspective, this was not a great
win for Kansas State, but they got back on track,
as you said, and now it's a huge step up
in class after that oneh eight forty nine win. Ky
State has not stepped up in class well this season.
And I projected about a seven seven and a half
point line here, so I would lean towards Creighton. And
Creighton is coming off a bad loss by twenty one
points against Nebraska last Sunday, so it looks like a
focused spot for Creighton, and I think they're the better team.
And it's all about tempo. You know, we talked about
ky State being one of the fastest teams in the country. Well,
Creighton plays extremely slow. They're around three hundredth in tempo,
so I think at home they're going to dictate the
Tempoh and frustrate your case State Wildcats today. Yeah.
Speaker 1: K State team totals have been absolute utter money, as
have the game totals.
Speaker 2: I think they're seven to two to the over. I
need to double check that out.
Speaker 7: Be careful with that one today, though, Kel because as
you know, Creighton plays a lot slower and I don't
think they're gonna be able to dictate the tempo. So
that would be one today. Maybe goes under today with
K State.
Speaker 2: All right, keep an eye on that one, guys.
Speaker 1: Question from the chats Arizona Alabama Guys, I forgot to
tell you at the start of the show. I'm not
super nippiggy during college football, but during college basketball I'm
gonna need those rotation numbers because it makes it a
lot easier when searching for these games on the Odds
logic screen. Steve Merrill, give me this current line on
this game, and of course your thoughts.
Speaker 7: Well, I need a rotation number two. What do you
think I can just memorize all of these games? Yeah,
there's a lot of games here. My thoughts are this
should be a very tight game. We'll see what the
current number is here as I scroll down. Yeah, we
really do need rotation number.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I try to do control.
Speaker 1: You can do command F on Apple and Search, so
I thought I'm going to do right now, But of
course I got to update my odds logic.
Speaker 2: You know, these things make life.
Speaker 7: Arizona. Yeah, this game was picked and that's why I
wanted to check. It's now too, and it's actually the
board is lighting up right now. Yes, from one and
a half to two on Arizona. Because that's another reason
you want to check these lines. We're doing this show
eleven thirty am Eastern Saturday. I don't want to give
you a number from thirty minutes ago because it's probably changed.
So yeah, now it's it was one and a half
before the show. Now it's Arizona minus two. We've seen
a little bit of money coming on them, not a surprise.
We've seen money coming on the over from one seventy
two and a half up to one seventy eight now
even one seventy eight and a half out. There should
be a high scoring game, no question about it. Alabama,
once again not a surprise, plays extremely fast. Case States
tenth this year. There were twelfth on Monday. They're now tenth.
Alabama's ninth so Alabama plays even faster than ky State
and tempo. Arizona a top thirty five tempo team as well,
So biggest total on the board. And you know something
to Ralph Michaels and myself, Steve Merrill love to say
the highest totals go over and the lowest totals go under.
So we've seen a lot of sharp money on the over.
I would not disagree. These are two of the best
offensive teams in the country. Shouldn't be many turnovers either, Bama.
As fast as Bama plays, they do not force turnovers.
They're not a pressure team. They just want to get
up and score. The one thing that jumps out of
me when I'm looking at my matchup metrics, which I'd
like to do with really highly ranked teams like this,
is where is there maybe a weakness and one thing.
Arizona relies heavily on his two point shooting. Alabama's got
a very mediocre two point defense because they play fast.
So yeah, I think both teams could score here. I
think that's one of the reasons we've seen money coming
on Arizona because it's a favorable matchup, and we've definitely
seen money coming on the over.
Speaker 2: All right, I think this is an old swack ooh
game right.
Speaker 1: Texas Tech right here odds logic screen Steve Merrill rotation
number six oh one six h two open one and
a half in favor of Tech.
Speaker 2: They're moving up to two.
Speaker 1: Starting to light up here a little bit more on
the total though, one fifty five pretty much across the board.
Speaker 2: Kind of your thoughts on these two teams this year?
Speaker 1: I hand up, guys, I have not been as involved
in college basketball as I should have been, and that's
what we got guys like Steve marrill on.
Speaker 7: Yeah. Look, and it's nothing wrong with not being involved
with college hoops, like we talked about last week in November.
In early December. Everyone, as I told you last week,
nobody knows anything in November. Don't let them. Even the
coaches don't know what they have because half their rosters.
New transfer portal hasn't played more than one or two
preseason exhibition games. But I do like to start diving
in more to college hoops now for a couple of reasons.
First of all, we have ten plus games under our belt,
so we have a good statistical sample to look at
the matchup analysis stuff. I'm giving now is legit. And
the other reason, Kelly, is because they're an exam periods
right now and this will be kind of over after
next week. But we're getting very close to conference play,
and I really feel like after that exam period, maybe
give them one game to get back late December on.
We're in full throttle college basketball mode here and this
should be a good game today. I think it'd be
one of the more competitive games. I've got Arkansas winning
by about two points here on average based on my
matchup projections, so I do think maybe the wrong team
is favored here. I would say Arkansas is a live dog.
Little surprise to see that line go from one and
a half to two. As far as the matchup metrics here,
I rate Arkansas is the better team even and there
once again played the Texas Tech team that's pretty good
as well. Arkansas plays a lot faster than Texas Tech,
so it probably will come down to tempo who can
control things here. Arkansas gives up a lot of three
point shots and Texas Tech does take a lot of
three so once again a little bit of a random
handicap here, and that's what kept us off my card,
even though I think there's some value with Arkansas. It's
hard to predict those three point shots, and Texas Tech
is a good three point shooting team. Arkansas's giving up
almost forty three percent of their points from beyond the
arc this year. It's really going to come down to
if Texas Tech hits those threes.
Speaker 1: Are not all right, Steve, We're just gonna keep going
down rotation number at least. This is how I'm going
through the question so that I don't screw up too bad.
In Michigan State headed to Penn State, but they are
now just an eleven point road favorite. We even have
a ten and a half here in Florida at the
hard Rock total one forty five. Any kind of thoughts
on if you miss the number here now you're down
to eleven one and a half point line move? Is
that enough to keep you.
Speaker 2: Off a game?
Speaker 7: I predict about an eleven point win, so I think
the line is fair. And one thing I do with
all sports is you know, is look at situational setups.
In college basketball, I also look at tempo and pace
a lot. You want to try to play slow teams
against fast teams. I also look at matchups or a
team as a strength versus a weakness, maybe like a
good pressure defense against a team that turns it over
a lot, or as I mentioned, teams allow a lot
of threes versus a team that hits threes. Careful though
with three points, you know, predicting three point margins kind
of like trying to predict turnovers and football vers and
football basket. Three point shooting in both the NBA and
college hoops decides most games. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to
predict ahead of time. But as far as the situational
set up here, it should be a focused spot for
Michigan State. So as I said, I projected an eleven
point win, but I'm actually wanting to give up a
little line value here because of the situational setup. And
I say that because after an eight to zero start,
they dropped their first game of the season last Saturday
against Duke sixty six to sixty. So you've got one
of the best teams in the country, always one of
the best coach teams in the country under Tom Izzo,
coming off their first loss of the season, and now
they're facing a very mediocre Penn State team that also
lost to Indiana. But they lost that game by forty
one points on Tuesday. Their other laws against Providence came
by twelve. So the two times Penn State has lost
this year has both been by double digits. It would
be Michigan State or pass for me in this one
should be a focused spot for the Spartans, and both
teams play fairly slow. I just think Michigan State does
it better. And speaking of three point rates, both teams
give up a lot of threes, but neither team takes
many threes. So here again, it should be a fairly
clean handicap. I think Michigan State has a big edge
down low.
Speaker 1: All right, I've been waiting to talk about this game
because this is Art to Caesar's best Bet. I was
waiting to slide that in. Now we've got almost three
thousand of you guys watching live, so Art loves the
other side today, which is Illinois. Six sixt' nine six
seventy is the rotation number. Illinois opened as a nine
point favorite. Now we're starting to see a twelve pop
up there at circa Steve one fifty six, one, fifty
seven and fifty seven.
Speaker 2: And this total is all over the board.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so last week Art like Dayton, remember and I
said I was probably going to disagree with him because
that was going to be a mini home game for
UVA down in Charlotte. It was a neutral court, and
UVA basketball got it done by thirteen. Football was not
as fortunate. I'm sure the UVA fans would rather have
the opposite result. I'm probably the worst person to ask
about Illinois right now because I have faded them in
each of their last two games without success. I've been
on a monster run. I probably am like seventy seventy
five percent on all other sports best bets. Take those
two Illinois games out of the equation. The last couple
of weeks, Tennessee last Saturday bit me, and then I
thought it was a good spot to take Ohio State
as a live home dog on Tuesday night, and that
was the only game I missed all week in basketball
to this point. So Illinois has been a team I
haven't had a great read on. They've been playing better
than I've expected, but I still think they're a little
bit overrated because of that. And now, after two outperformances,
not afraid here to maybe take aside when Nebraska, who
I do rank as a top thirty team, Nebraska gives
up a ton of three point percentage of points. In fact,
they're three hundred and sixty five teams. They give up
the fourth most points from three point range of the country.
Over fifty percent of their opponent's points come from beyond
the arc. And Illinois is a decent three pointing team.
So once again, you know it's gonna come down to
three point shooting. But if Illinois is off by a
little bit here, which I think they're probably due to be,
might not be a bad spot for Nebraska. And both
teams take care of the ball, excellent care of the
ball here, So that's another reason we've maybe seen that
total move a bit. Should not be many turnovers in
this game.
Speaker 1: All right, next up, we're gonna just keep rattling through these.
Kyle Anthony's waiting in the wings and talk UFC with
you guys. We've got to get these college basketball questions.
Speaker 2: First. Thoughts on iu UK.
Speaker 1: UH seven thirty tonight rotation number seven oh five seven
O six. Indiana is headed to Kentucky. Kentucky opened is
a four and a half point favorite, now as low
as two and a half here on the Wager Talk
odd screen, Steve Merrill. Oh boy, it's Kentucky on upset alert.
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think you almost are getting value
now with Kentucky, which is crazy because I'm not a
fan of these teams that, you know, try to build
these twenty what is it a twenty million dollar payroll?
I think they have for something. And Mark Pope, you
gotta respect Mark Pope. I love what a coach comes
down and says I've done a terrible job coaching. That's
what he said. A few weeks ago after the three
and two start, they dropped an eight point loss to Louisville.
They lost by seventeen to that Michigan State team we
just talked about, came back to nothing wins against Loyla, Maryland,
Tennessee Tech, and then they've since lost in North Carolina
and Gonzaga and they just blew out North Carolina Central.
So yeah, on the surface, their wins have not been impressive.
The other wins, by the way, Nicols State and Valparaiso,
but the losses have all come against good teams, and
Indiana is a good team. So we'll see if this
Kentucky team starts to gel or not. I think this
might be the spot to use them. This is still
a very talented squad and I've kind of been waiting
for a spot to use them. And Mark Pope said,
I've done a terrible job coaching, yet they have like
a twenty twenty five million dollar payroll. I think at
some point this team is going to break out. And
at six and four I almost feel like we're fading
the public here by taking Kentucky against Indiana. And look,
I could be wrong, right, it would not shock me
if they play awful again tonight, but I have a
sneaking suspicion tonight might be the time to use Kentucky.
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, We've got a few more minutes with you,
and I'm waiting for some more questions to populate. So
this seems like a good time to hop in and say,
Steve MERRILLL what you got going on over at wager
talk dot com.
Speaker 7: I know you all touched on the college football, but
I do have videos for both games today, the Army
Navy game and also the I Love La the La
Ball Kelly. It starts tonight Boise and Washington, and both
teams are gonna play full throttle. I like these early
bowl games because you get less opt outs. You know,
the boys you just played last week Washington was basically
a bye week. I do have a free play in
that game in the video. Also a deep dive into
the Army Navy game as well side and total. So
check out the videos for free here on wager Talk TV.
And by the way, I'm gonna do every college football
bowl game kind of. I didn't do the Celebration Bowl today.
I didn't feel like something.
Speaker 2: You say, you're not doing every single ball game.
Speaker 7: Now that's tech technicality. I'm doing every Division one A,
every FBS bowl game I am doing that's an FCS game.
In fact, when I recorded the LA Bowl earlier this week,
there was no line on that game, so I couldn't
even do it if I wanted to. Even the odds
makers weren't celebrating that game until a day or so ago.
But the SCS playoffs for fun to watch. I'm not
gonna do those. But yes, every every Big Boy Bowl
game will be up here on wager Talk TV. And
you know I'm gonna stagger him. I was about I
did the Blitz Show with Ralph and Brian on Thursday,
and I was about to record that Troy game. For Tuesday,
because I kind of liked it in the line moved
right after the show, moved from three to two and
a half off the key number. So I'm going to
record that maybe today or tomorrow. We'll get that up Monday.
My point is, click subscribe, click the bell. You will
get an instant alert when every bowl game is posted
for free here on the channel. And oh yeah, don't
forget about the NFL. I've got previews for those huge
games Tomorrow afternoon, Packers and the Broncos. Also Lions, Rams,
Sunday Night Football, Vikings, Cowboys, Monday Night Football, Steelers, Dolphins,
and yes we won again with the Thursday night Prime
game twelve and three. Now, as I gave you the Falcons,
an outright winner had the Lions last week over the Cowboys.
If you're not getting the free NFL plays, I don't
know what you're thinking. I'm number one in the NFL
over the last year, up eighty three units going back
over the past year in the NFL sixty and thirty
five and O Kelly, I buried the lead. That's sixty
three percent, Fade. The public is sixty three percent for
free this season, and I've got the five most public
plays for this Sunday loaded in my video for today,
including three public dogs in those five games. Kelly, the
public is stinky Dons scared they went. They've gone one
in seven the last two weeks, two and nine the
last three weeks. We're sixty three percent fading them this
season and they don't know what to do. There's only
one favorite in the official card this week.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 1: Crazy that is that is very very crazy. Let's hit
a couple more of these college basketball games. Oklahoma Oklahoma
State rotation over six seventeen six eighteen Oklahoma Open is
a one and a half point favorite total one sixty
four and a half. This is up to one seventy
at a global book and two and a half pretty
much across the board. We're even starting to see some
threes populate on the Odds logic screen.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it should be another good game. We've got a
lot of good matchups today that we're talking about. You,
they're picking some good games. All of these I have
like within a basket. And here again I've got Oklahoma
State winning this one by about two. Should be in
that one sixty range. Should be a high scoring game.
And as we always talk about it's about tempo. Oklahoma
State's seventh fastest team. They're even faster than k State.
They're even faster than Alabama. That's how fast Oklahoma State
plays this season. But Oklahoma is a slow down, half
court team. They're in the bottom half of the pace
and metrics. So we'll see who can dictate the tempo
in this one. That's really what it's going to come
down to. I would say Oklahoma State and the over
are some correlated, Oklahoma and the under are some correlated.
And normally I don't recommend parlays, but for those of
you that are new to sports betting, the only time
you should do a two team parlay is if the
side in total are correlated, meaning that the outcomes are
somewhat co dependent on each other. Oklahoma State gives up
a lot of shots from three point range and Oklahoma
does hit some threes. This is a tough handicap here.
I think this one goes down to the wire. Normally
I sided to the team like Oklahoma that's more able
to slow the game down and dictate tempo.
Speaker 1: All right, last question before we get you out of here,
Steve Maryland, because nobody's sending me rotation numbers Maryland Michigan
seven thirteen, seven fourteen. If you guys were listening earlier,
I know I saw some comments in the chat. They
were not happy that we didn't go over some early games.
We went over all of the early games at the
beginning of the show.
Speaker 2: Anyway.
Speaker 1: We also went over Maryland being a sharp play here from.
Speaker 2: The Westgates super Book.
Speaker 1: This one opened sixteen and a half eighteen currently at
super Book. I know they took some money. I think
it was at nineteen. The total has also just gotten
completely blown up. Sitting at one fifty seven and a half,
Steve Sean asked the question.
Speaker 2: He is a Michigan homer. He gets a little upset.
Speaker 1: But do you agree with him that Michigan is going
to blow out yet another team or are we going
to start seeing teams figure out how to stop this
Wolverine's offense.
Speaker 7: Yeah, they're really good. A lot of metrics you can
look at, you know, obviously, adjusted offensive efficiency and defense,
effective field goal percentage, wins above. Bubble is probably something
we don't talk a lot about because I don't really
use it from a handicapping perspective. But if you really
want to look at maybe who the best teams are
in the country. The wins above bubble stat is very interesting,
and Michigan is number one in that stat. By the way,
Maryland is only ninety third, but Michigan, and there's the
number one adjusted efficiency defense, number five offense, the number
two efficiency effective field goal percentage defense right at number
six offense. They're very good on both sides of the court,
is my point. But here's what jumps out to me.
They have the number one two point percentage offense and
defense in the nation. Let that sink in. There are
three hundred and sixty five teams and their best at
scoring and defending two pointers. And I bring that up
once again because three point shootings, I said earlier, is
such a random variable. So when you're that consistent down low,
you have size like they do, you're really good game
after game. And then on top of that, they play fast.
They're the thirteenth fastest team in the country tempo wise.
That's why they're crushing everybody, and that's why they're a
very hard team to fade. I make them about a
nineteen point favorite in this game, so I don't disagree
with that line move from seventeen and a half up
to eighteen eighteen and a half. Not a team I'm
looking to get in front of right now. And you
look at their recent wins. They've beaten everybody except the
TCU and Wake Forest games back in early November, which
were four point games at a one point overtime, when
they've won almost every other game, including the Villa Nova
game the other night, by eighteen or more. If you're
gonna play it, you have to lay it right now
with Michigan.
Speaker 2: Sorry, Steve, I'm gonna disagree with you.
Speaker 1: Sign me up to step in front of all the
freight trains.
Speaker 2: That is my favorite.
Speaker 7: You love that. You love getting hit by the freight trains.
You've been like that for forty years.
Speaker 1: You're holding up on Bhi the freight train. I just
like seeing them derail. That is a completely different thing.
I'm not trying to get hit by the bride line.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 1: Steve Merril, he is the best at Steve Merrill. As
he mentioned, you guys can head over to the Wager
Talking YouTube pannel. You guys can check out all of
his free videos. He does a ton of free content
for you guys. Also, wt dot Buzz, Backslash, s M.
Steve Merril, keep kicking ass and we'll see you here
in the next Hey, kell.
Speaker 7: Let me let me say real quick, A said that
great website. They set one up for me too for
the four year. Yes, and it's just as simple. It's
WT dot buzz slash Steve three six five perfect. And
I want to point that out because you know I
keep saying that, like Steve, you give everything away for free. Well,
I give you almost every major game every week for free.
But a lot of those are light leans only, right,
and maybe the tv lians treat them as one percent
of bank roll. If you want my official best bets,
my four percent plays the games. I'm actually using each
it every day and IFL went three and oh last
Sunday number one the last year, get it for about
a dollar a play with that one year special. It's
the biggest discount you'll get all year, and it's through
this weekend only. WT dot buzz slash Steve three sixty five.
Speaker 1: Awesome, Steve Merril. We'll see you here soon. Keep on
cashing those tickets. Before bringing Kyle Anthony, I wanted to
remind you guys Splash sports dot com backslash Kelly and Vegas.
I've got my College Football Playoff Survivor up right now
splash sports dot Com Backslash Kelly Vegas two hundred and
fifty thousand dollars guaranteed one hundred dollars buy in. I've
got three entries so far. If this isn't even get
close to filling, I'm gonna have like forty entries and
I'm just gonna mix and match. But I have a
feeling over the next week or so it's gonna start
to fill. But hopefully we still get a nice overlay.
Kyle Anthony coming in you FC and where I get
to pronounce really tough names. He had one really really
hard one and two easy ones.
Speaker 8: So this is like, this is like your main event here,
this is this is the last event of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 5: We're gotta give.
Speaker 8: Kelly the the toughest names possible and see.
Speaker 5: What we could, just see what we can come through
with a winner here.
Speaker 8: You know the lines, you know you you're You're definitely
not the favorite to pronounce these correctly.
Speaker 2: For the love of God, it's so bad. It is
so bad.
Speaker 5: I uh I did you can pass? You can still pass?
Speaker 1: And just all the good news is is he's got
a really easy first name. I'm gonna give it a go, though,
because John Hoglan, our social media manager, did an entire
video with me one day.
Speaker 2: He caught me up guard.
Speaker 1: I had a couple of marks at the West and
he goes, cal can we film this? And he has
me pronouncing UFC fighters. I'm like, this is my nightmare.
But we're gonna get into this, Kyle. This is our
last pay per view of the year.
Speaker 5: Correct, well, last pay per view was last week.
Speaker 8: This is just the last event of twenty twenty five,
which we will have five weeks off. That's about the
closest UFC betters get as an off season here, so uh,
it'll be.
Speaker 5: Nice through the through the holiday season. But yeah, this
is the last event of this year.
Speaker 1: Okay, Kennedy next, Chuck wu versus all right, all right,
Marcus Bochete huh.
Speaker 5: Get that a in there at the end, But you're good,
all right.
Speaker 8: So we have Kenny is a chick wu he is
minus one twenty five, and the comeback we've got Marcus
Buceca he is plus one oh eight. Now this is
a fight here. We've got two guys that are coming
off absolutely terrible performances. You've got Kennedy who went out there,
got hurt early in the first round, was submitted within
that first minute of the first round.
Speaker 5: Then you've got Marcus on their side.
Speaker 8: Who comes in his UFC debut, doesn't look that good,
couldn't get the takedowns one for leven on takedowns.
Speaker 5: And then you've lost the decision.
Speaker 8: So this is a spot here where really it all
comes down to the takedowns.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 8: Now you've got Buceca, who is a world champion jiu
jitsu specialist.
Speaker 5: This guy is elite.
Speaker 8: If this fight hits the ground, he's got that high
level ability to get submissions. Now, my biggest issue here
on the Butcecha side is the fact that he's very
one dimensional. You know, he's a guy that you know,
it's really takedowns or bust, it's really uh, no real
plan B And that's a big issue here for him.
Where in twenty twenty five heading to twenty twenty six,
fighters that are one dimensional do not do well. And
now you've got Kennedy and is a chick Woo who
is a more well rounded guy. He's gonna have the
striking obviously, the higher level grappling is gonna go to Boucecha,
but the striking is just so favorable to Kennedy in
this spot here. He's gonna be the more athletic guy,
gonna have the longer reach, He's gonna have a five
inch each advantage, a three inch heid advantage, and I
think a lot that he can do with that range.
But another big issue here is the fact that Butceca
he has seven career MMA fights, while you've got Kennedy
with twenty. So you've got the experience level is very wide.
You obviously, Kennedy's been in the UFC for a very
long time and had some you know, mixed results, but
you've got Buceca, who is thirty five years old, just
made his UFC debut, very one dimensional.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 8: It's a tough spot to take here, where we do see.
The part about this I think is interesting is that
money has consistently poured in on Bucecha in this spot here,
and I do believe the market's over correcting here a
little bit because you've got Kennedy who is coming off
a loss where he didn't look good in the first round,
and also the fact he was just submitted now he's
facing a you know, submission guy, a grappler who's going
to be looking for those takedowns, and I feel like
it's a little bit more of an overcorrection. You've got
Kennedy who's only been submitted two times in his professional career.
That was against Paul Craig back in twenty nineteen, who
is an elite level grappler, and then recently against against Walker.
So I think this is a spot here where Kennedy,
his eighty percent takedown defense can hold up in certain spots.
Speaker 5: Anytime this play on the feat, I.
Speaker 8: Like him a lot here to land the harder shots,
possibly look for that knockdown. Plus the cardio doesn't look
that good for Boucecha, so I think that minus won
twenty five on Kennedy in this spot.
Speaker 5: Here is a is a nice play.
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: Right now you've got your hero parlay up, correct or
you're gonna post it soon.
Speaker 8: No, I don't have it up yet, Gonna post it
after this. And actually, now that you brought it up,
this play I'm about to talk about is actually going
to be in the Hero parlay. So I do like
this from a betting perspective, but I also think it's
a great leg for the hero parlay.
Speaker 1: All right, perfect, these are two easy ones, so I
can't screw it up, right, Gillian Robertson, Amanda Limos, you
like a nice plus two eighty here.
Speaker 8: Yes, we've got Jillian Robertson here, she is minus one
at ninety six.
Speaker 5: I'm the comeback. Here.
Speaker 8: We've got Amende La Moos, she is plus one sixty.
Speaker 5: Now you've got Jillian here.
Speaker 8: Who is you know, since she's moved down to one
hundred and fifteen pounds, she's looked great.
Speaker 5: You know, it's more suited for her frame.
Speaker 8: She's getting more takedowns, she's finding more control time, and
she's been able to do you know what she's been
trying to do with her game plan. She's five and
one in the division since she's got here, So I
think there's a lot of great.
Speaker 5: Things that she has done.
Speaker 8: The big red flags here on the Lomosche side is
first the fact that she's coming in on short notice. Now,
a normal camp is going to be you know, roughly
eight weeks somewhere in there, nine weeks.
Speaker 5: She's coming in on four weeks notice.
Speaker 8: So there is somewhat that But there's definitely going to
be you know, is she in peak physical condition. The
other part being the fact that she's thirty eight years old.
You know, she is a long time bet. She's been
around a long time. She's done a lot of great things,
but in general it's just at the end of her career.
So it's the mix between thirty eight short notice and
also the fact that she has a tough stylistic matchup here.
While Jillian is aggressive, she's gonna come forward, She's going
to crash the pocket, look for takedown. She doesn't have
the greatest striking Lamosh will have the striking advantage, but
pretty much Jillian moves forward and what she's doing is
just throwing punches to pretty much just cut distance, get
her hands on you. This is going to be in
the Apex cage, which in the Apex cage thirty percent smaller.
Speaker 5: I do think she can crash the pocket here. I
do think she can.
Speaker 8: Hold her up against the fence positionally, look to win.
Find opportunities there. And you know the other part here
is you've got you know, Jillian who is pretty much
entering her prime at thirty years old. You've got a
thirty eight year old kind of at the tail end
of her career. Now where I think this gets interesting
is the fact that you know, Leamoche, she does have
issues there. But what she does have is strength, physicality.
She's got a pretty good takedown defense. She can scramble
when she's able to, you know, obviously not get flattened
out on the ground. She's finding ways to get back
to her feet. And Jillian doesn't have the greatest wrestling.
You know her wrestling, you know, she has a forty
percent takedown success rate, not the greatest here, and you
even so recently for Lemoche was that against tatianas Wars,
who is an elite level wrestler. She only was three
for twelve on takedowns, so she stuffed a lot of
those takedowns. So for me in this spot, as you're saying, Kelly,
the plus two eighty in here for Jillian two win
by points, I think there's gonna be scrappy moments.
Speaker 5: I think there's gonna be close moments.
Speaker 8: I do think that you have Gillian who will win
positionally Banks some rounds, but I don't see the finished
materializing here. I do think that Jillian gets the job
done Banks enough rounds and gets a scorecard. So I
do like this plus two to eighty number here to
get the job done.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, if you do have a question regarding
this UFC card for Kyle, drop it in the chat.
Speaker 2: We got a few minutes left. I know everybody's mad.
Speaker 1: Then at college basketball I put it in there too.
Comment Is this a little hostile this morning? I should
have gotten more coffee?
Speaker 7: Kyle.
Speaker 1: Let every know when your hero parlay is going to
be posted and where they can find it.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so you can check it out on my Twitter
at Kylie Anthy UFC. I'm going to be posted up shortly.
We've done well on these overall. We're not gonna be
hitting these every weekend, so everybody relaxed, but we're gonna
be able to hit a good amount of them.
Speaker 1: Do you recommend you know how I do my three
team moneyline parlay? So, for example, I bet these three
teams against the spread. I sprinkle a little bit on
the money line and into the parlay is just like
the icing on the cake. Do you recommend everybody betting
me straight as well?
Speaker 5: I think so.
Speaker 8: I mean for the most I do, but for the
most part I don't try to push that narrative to
the hero parlay.
Speaker 5: For the most part, I'm saying, hey, these are the
ones that I do like.
Speaker 8: It's a more of a fun bet, one that we
have found some good odds with and we're looking to
piece three legs together to find opportunity to cash.
Speaker 5: So yes, I do like these.
Speaker 8: And as I just said, you know, Gillian Robertson at
plus two eighty, that's a spot I like, just straight up.
Speaker 5: But yet it's a good leg for the hero parlay, okay,
And so.
Speaker 2: For a novice UFC better like me, where would I
find that?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 1: So you go onto the apps and sometimes there's just
so many things to bet, right.
Speaker 8: Well, this is going to be method of victory, so
you got to look for method of victory there, or
you look for the double chance. Double chance is basically
it can be points submission, it could be knocked out submission,
it can be knockout points. So you do have a
way to kind of play with that a little bit here.
But for the most part, if you're looking at method
of victory one particular way, it's going to be under
a method of victory, and then you have the other
you know, other ways that you're gonna be able to play.
Speaker 1: That sweet Kyle, you're the best. Appreciate you hanging out
with us every single Saturday. When are we gonna see
you again? You have five next five weeks off.
Speaker 8: So next five these I'm heading to Mexico for a week.
I'm gonna enjoy some time off a little bit, but
when I come back. The great part about it is
that when we come back, there are back to back
pay per views because now ESPN is gonna be done,
they're now having paramount paramount.
Speaker 5: I guess they've set up.
Speaker 8: Two huge cards to start the year, which is gonna
be the last two weeks of January. So a lot
of work to do leading up to that, but definitely
a great start to twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Awesome you enjoy your time in Mexico. I'm very jealous.
I need to work on my tan. It's already gone
from Maruba. Thank you, Kyle at Kyle Anthony UFC. If
you guys are looking for that hero parlay, and thank
you to all of you guys, especially are Wager Talk
insiders WT dot Buzz Backslash insiders to join you guys
are gonna get early access to all things wager talk.
Speaker 2: Every once in a while, we're gonna give you some
access to v our steam room.
Speaker 1: You're gonna get Marco's delhi Earli, you're gonna bet on
it early two dollars of ninety nine cents a month,
WT dot Buzz, Backslash Insiders, and again, guys, if you're
looking for a college football playoff contest, Splash sports dot com,
Backslash Kelly in Vegas, I've got a college football playoff survivor.
Speaker 2: I know the comment section was upset that.
Speaker 1: I put one hundred dollars price tag on it, because
I wanted two hundred fifty thousand dollars guaranteed.
Speaker 2: That's what I wanted, so they gave me what I wanted.
But don't worry.
Speaker 1: There are plenty of other contests over on splash to
fit all of your pricing needs, from five bucks to
five thousand bucks. I wish I was kidding. Some of
them are a little too pricey for me. That being said,
I hope you guys have a wonderful Saturday. As VR
likes to say, hope you cash them, don't trash them
back here tomorrow. Aerol Epscene, John Murray, VR and Marco DiAngelo,