1
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:06,040
Speaker 1: Welcome in to wager Talk's the last call Kelly Stewart Here,

2
00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:08,400
we're scrambling this morning. Art to Caesar just sent me

3
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:10,880
what feels like forty basketball games, and I was trying

4
00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:13,080
to get all these bets in before the show started.

5
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,839
I'm not kidding. Look how long that list is, very

6
00:00:15,919 --> 00:00:18,320
very long. We're gonna get into that, but first John

7
00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:19,760
need the Greek waiting the wings. We don't want to

8
00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,160
keep him waiting too long because he's a busy man.

9
00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,399
He's got things to do over at wager.

10
00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:25,519
Speaker 2: Talk dot com v R.

11
00:00:26,039 --> 00:00:27,280
Speaker 1: How do you want to do this morning? You want

12
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:28,399
to go through what you've got? You want to go

13
00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:29,000
through arts?

14
00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,320
Speaker 3: Got Yeah, yes, start off with art art because we've

15
00:00:33,359 --> 00:00:34,960
just been on fire Man. I got so much good

16
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,840
information for the viewers today. It'll be like sure with

17
00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,960
Dynamite today. So yeah, Art to them. We'll take it

18
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:42,399
from there.

19
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,280
Speaker 1: The comment section is calling me an Hoa Karen because

20
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:46,880
I made the mistake of telling everybody that I'm now

21
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,479
hoa president uh in.

22
00:00:49,359 --> 00:00:54,079
Speaker 2: My community control things because I get shipped done. Guys.

23
00:00:54,359 --> 00:00:56,000
You know what We're gonna get shipped done here this morning.

24
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:57,640
We're gonna make some money today.

25
00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,359
Speaker 1: That is at least my over a plan sharp Action

26
00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,680
Art to Caesar Westgates super Book. Make sure you guys

27
00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:07,640
get your pen and paper ready, because boy, oh boy,

28
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,400
is this a lot. And then I want to kind

29
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,040
of cover what VR's got to see if there is

30
00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:12,760
some similarities.

31
00:01:12,799 --> 00:01:14,239
Speaker 2: We're gonna start off right off the top.

32
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 1: And I apologize, guys, Art did not send me rotation numbers,

33
00:01:17,599 --> 00:01:19,400
so please please please bear with me.

34
00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:20,480
Speaker 2: I will go slow.

35
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:25,120
Speaker 1: Providence plus four and a half, Kansas State plus four

36
00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,599
and a half, New Mexico State plus five and a half,

37
00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:35,000
Belmont minus thirteen and a half, Louisiana Lafayette plus eleven

38
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:40,439
and a half, Murray State plus six, Rutgers plus twelve,

39
00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:47,599
Utsa plus twenty four, Maryland plus nineteen, Oregon State minus

40
00:01:47,599 --> 00:01:50,560
two and a half. De Paul plus seven and a half.

41
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,159
You see San Diego minus five and a half, U

42
00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,439
Mass plus eleven and a half, cal Bakersfield minus two,

43
00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:03,680
Cincinnati plus eight and a half, Rice plus two and

44
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:08,199
a half, Valparizo plus five and a half. And the

45
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,919
team that I call Bobby Mo Robert Morris pick'em. So

46
00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,280
I'll go over those again here later on through the

47
00:02:14,319 --> 00:02:16,479
show as well as Arts best bet that he gave me.

48
00:02:16,479 --> 00:02:20,120
But we got to get in and here what VR's

49
00:02:20,159 --> 00:02:22,800
got to say, not only about college basketball today, but

50
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,479
what else is going on with him.

51
00:02:24,319 --> 00:02:25,599
Speaker 2: Over at wagers talk dot com.

52
00:02:26,439 --> 00:02:28,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so far, a lot of confirmation.

53
00:02:28,439 --> 00:02:30,759
Speaker 3: You gotta remember a lot of this theme that they're

54
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,719
getting at Westgate. They put up early numbers like they're

55
00:02:35,719 --> 00:02:38,120
willing to take a bet, they're willing to have an opinion.

56
00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,080
So you got to remember, just like they put out

57
00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:44,560
the look aheads with the NFL, somebody's get hit just

58
00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,599
until the number gets shaped into where it should be

59
00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:52,319
and then there's not followed through, so they get hit

60
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,840
with some steam that you don't see. Also get hit

61
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,759
like across the screen. And then there's some of the

62
00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,639
signs that do that you see follow through. Some of

63
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,560
the signs that I saw some of the groups hit

64
00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:09,000
again today that line up with what Art said was

65
00:03:09,039 --> 00:03:12,000
the Robert Morris at plus one and a half too

66
00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:16,360
minus one, Cincinnati Cincinnati from plus nine all the way

67
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,400
down the plus seven and a half and Rice Rice

68
00:03:20,439 --> 00:03:24,639
from plus three plus two and a half, utsa plus

69
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,479
twenty four, and that U Masus plus eleven and a

70
00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:33,120
half and twelve. We had Rutgers plus twelve, Kansas State

71
00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:37,280
plus five and four and a half, and Ull plus

72
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,439
eleven and a half and eleven. So those lined up

73
00:03:39,879 --> 00:03:43,039
with exactly what Art had to say.

74
00:03:44,759 --> 00:03:47,680
Speaker 4: And that's good. That's what you want to see.

75
00:03:48,719 --> 00:03:51,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, Because what you're essentially saying, VR is that not

76
00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,120
only the groups that are playing at the west Gate, right,

77
00:03:54,159 --> 00:03:56,599
the groups that are asking me to move some of

78
00:03:56,639 --> 00:03:59,400
these games for them are also putting into other accounts.

79
00:03:59,479 --> 00:04:01,360
So we're gonna go ahead and assume, and I never

80
00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:02,960
want to do that, but I'm gonna ahead and assume

81
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,039
these are not fake plays.

82
00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:04,280
Speaker 4: Right.

83
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,840
Speaker 1: What I've been getting is a really good group of

84
00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,680
sharp totals, and I think we've had one lose out

85
00:04:10,719 --> 00:04:12,360
of like the last nine or ten. The guy has

86
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,560
been on fire. Granted, I'm not getting the best of

87
00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,240
the number. By the time I get the information, it's

88
00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,600
already a point and a half off, So I've got

89
00:04:18,639 --> 00:04:20,519
to kind of make some decisions at that point in time.

90
00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,079
Is it better to wait in game, is a better

91
00:04:22,079 --> 00:04:25,120
to way to halftime or bet at now? The reality is,

92
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,519
though there are fake plays being put in, as you

93
00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,079
mentioned at the Westgate, Hey, this got put in early

94
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:30,519
in the week.

95
00:04:30,519 --> 00:04:31,240
Speaker 2: Can you kind of go.

96
00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,399
Speaker 1: Through that process so people understand for basketball season, right,

97
00:04:34,439 --> 00:04:36,480
I know, we still have college football playoff and bowl

98
00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,079
games going on before college basketball season.

99
00:04:38,959 --> 00:04:40,319
Speaker 2: What we should be kind of looking at.

100
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of people get in

101
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,560
a little bit of trouble trying to chase whether it's

102
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,240
the Odds Logic screen or the wager Talk free odd screen.

103
00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and right now you're looking at a completely different

104
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,639
market that what it's going to be in about six

105
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,720
weeks from now or when football is over.

106
00:04:55,399 --> 00:04:56,319
Speaker 4: Because up until this.

107
00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 3: Saturday, college basketball has been taking a back seat to football,

108
00:05:01,199 --> 00:05:06,360
mostly used in parlays, mostly primetime standalone games, So it's

109
00:05:06,399 --> 00:05:09,439
been the wise guys versus the sports books primarily. That

110
00:05:09,639 --> 00:05:13,120
changes today with no football really on the board. So

111
00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,680
they're now forced not just the parlay, not just the t's,

112
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,560
but they're going to scrape bet these college basketball games

113
00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:23,480
and not just those marquee primetime TV games. That's where

114
00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,720
they're at a disadvantage because again they're diving in right

115
00:05:27,759 --> 00:05:30,600
now kind of like we saw I joked about COVID,

116
00:05:30,759 --> 00:05:34,079
where everybody became a handball specialist, all of a sudden

117
00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:34,680
you know.

118
00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 1: And now russ Russian table tennis, KG soccer, that's where

119
00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:42,319
the money is trying to survive.

120
00:05:42,439 --> 00:05:44,560
Speaker 3: Okay, that's where the money is. Yeah, that's what we

121
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,920
were all doing exactly. Now they're diving into this college

122
00:05:47,959 --> 00:05:51,920
basketball today, so you'll see the bettingston gets knowing that,

123
00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:54,879
so they're able now to sit back and some of

124
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:59,600
these lines today will get pushed from the public, not

125
00:05:59,759 --> 00:06:03,240
from sharp money. Again, two things move lines other than

126
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:08,480
factors like injury suspensions. It's it's respect an account that

127
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,199
they know wins long term, that gets good closing line

128
00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,839
value or a lot of money so they could manage

129
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,040
risk and the public don't get respect, but they bet

130
00:06:16,079 --> 00:06:18,040
a lot of money. And when that starts happening like

131
00:06:18,079 --> 00:06:20,480
it's gonna happen today, some of these lines will get

132
00:06:20,519 --> 00:06:23,040
moved out of whack. So what happens with these bettingson

133
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,360
to gets is early on, as soon as these lines

134
00:06:25,399 --> 00:06:29,120
go up, there's strictly power rated based that's what their

135
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:33,560
bets are based on. I did this for a long time.

136
00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:35,639
We get now it's a little different. You get a

137
00:06:35,639 --> 00:06:38,480
sheet like this and it would have what we thought

138
00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,560
the line should be compared to what whatever they're going

139
00:06:41,639 --> 00:06:44,079
to put up there, what my sheet has and what

140
00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,360
the board is off. I have the green light to

141
00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,120
bet that's all based on power ratings, and the power

142
00:06:50,199 --> 00:06:54,079
ratings are going to differ from group to group, and

143
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,040
they're really going to differ from what the book has

144
00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,120
because they got to follow again the narrative out there

145
00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,759
and real quickly not to go along. But a perfect example,

146
00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:03,639
when I look at the rankings, what do I see?

147
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,279
I see Arizona number one, I see Michigan number two,

148
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,160
I see Duke number three. I look at ken Pom,

149
00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,240
I see kind of the same thing, Michigan, Iowa State, Gonzaga,

150
00:07:13,279 --> 00:07:17,319
but power rating wise, Duke's number one, power rating wise,

151
00:07:17,399 --> 00:07:21,120
Duke's number one, Gonzaga's number two, Houston's number three. Like

152
00:07:21,439 --> 00:07:24,519
there's they're not even I don't even see Houston. Houston's

153
00:07:24,519 --> 00:07:26,959
barely in the top ten. They're barely in the top

154
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,519
ten on ken Pom's, and they're number seven right now

155
00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:35,000
in the rankings. There's only like two teams that would

156
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,519
be favored over Houston and Gonzaga. May not even Gonzaga

157
00:07:38,519 --> 00:07:41,079
would probably be a pick them against Houston. Duke's the

158
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,360
only team that would be favored over Houston. So not

159
00:07:43,439 --> 00:07:45,800
going to go off on a tangent, but those are

160
00:07:46,079 --> 00:07:48,680
power ratings, and that's what a lot of those early

161
00:07:48,759 --> 00:07:53,240
bets are going to be based on. As that they progresses,

162
00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,160
information starts coming in. This player's not one hundred percent

163
00:07:57,839 --> 00:08:02,480
this uh, players not playing like that, more of a handicap,

164
00:08:02,759 --> 00:08:07,399
more information based. Coupled with the public knocking somebody's lines

165
00:08:07,399 --> 00:08:10,879
out of whack, which then opens up value. That's why

166
00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:12,920
don't be scared if you see the line moving up

167
00:08:12,959 --> 00:08:16,360
in one direction then coming back down the other way,

168
00:08:16,519 --> 00:08:19,279
because a lot of times the move was initiated by

169
00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:23,959
public money. They forced the books to adjust. That offered

170
00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,079
up some value to wise guys who then come in

171
00:08:26,399 --> 00:08:30,360
and sweep up that value. So again, today's a little

172
00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,559
bit different because we're getting an influx of casual betters

173
00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,919
that haven't really been mixing it up in college basketball

174
00:08:37,919 --> 00:08:39,639
like they're going to do today. So it's a good

175
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,039
opportunity to make some money, but you got to be

176
00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:42,960
a little bit patient.

177
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:45,919
Speaker 1: All right, let's kind of get into some more of

178
00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:49,759
the slate for today, but first let everybody know kind

179
00:08:49,799 --> 00:08:52,200
of what's going on different over at wager talk dot com.

180
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,399
A couple of weeks ago, I screwed up and everybody

181
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,120
on the show got a free steam sheet. Not today, guys,

182
00:08:57,159 --> 00:08:59,360
but we're gonna bring that back for those here on

183
00:08:59,519 --> 00:09:03,080
last Johnny did give me the green light to let

184
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,159
everybody know that not only is it a bet on

185
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:09,759
it special, it is also a last call special ACE

186
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,240
three sixty five. So WT dot buzz backslash ACE three

187
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:15,279
six five.

188
00:09:15,799 --> 00:09:16,840
Speaker 2: What can they get with that? Right now?

189
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,600
Speaker 3: Vr bro He's we're given like the year for like

190
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,799
three bucks a day, like one hundred bucks a month.

191
00:09:22,039 --> 00:09:24,960
And I said, throw in the blackjack. So the guys

192
00:09:25,039 --> 00:09:28,600
that that because so much of it connects with with

193
00:09:28,759 --> 00:09:31,159
sports as far as risk management and stuff like that,

194
00:09:31,639 --> 00:09:34,799
So throwing the blackjacks so they get the whole course

195
00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,879
to be advantage blackjack players. You could learn that, study it,

196
00:09:39,039 --> 00:09:41,080
keep it for the rest of your lives. You have

197
00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,879
access to that. So we're throwing that in there as well.

198
00:09:44,919 --> 00:09:48,279
And since starting the steamsheet, life' scotten so good. Like

199
00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,039
the results speak for themselves again, not to tell, but

200
00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,399
it's been a little while now Number one, last three

201
00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,759
seven ten. That's not going to change again. I'm gonna

202
00:09:56,039 --> 00:09:59,320
have losing days, losing weeks, losing months. But now that

203
00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,639
I'm able to use the steam sheet to share a

204
00:10:01,639 --> 00:10:05,480
ton of information and only narrow down goal for premium,

205
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,840
that return on investment is going to be a lot

206
00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,679
greater than it has been. I will be on the

207
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,559
leaderboard a lot more than in the past because of

208
00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,559
the volume. And yesterday was a perfect example. One premium

209
00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,279
play that was it sixers minus six. They got us

210
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,919
the money. But for those guys that do handicap their

211
00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,639
own stuff. I put a lot of information in the

212
00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,279
steam sheet like today. I've only had one premium so

213
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,200
far in college basketball cal but there's ten eleven college

214
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,519
basketball steam plays in there, ten eleven Bowl games in there,

215
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:38,320
ten eleven NFL games, two NBA three NBA Steam, NHL's coming,

216
00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,360
MMA's coming. So all that information for you to decide

217
00:10:42,399 --> 00:10:45,919
what you agree on, what you want to bet and piggyback.

218
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,320
It's for those handicappers out there that want to do

219
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,679
what I do and not just piggyback my opinion. So

220
00:10:52,159 --> 00:10:54,600
jump on board. You get the steamsheet for free, just

221
00:10:54,639 --> 00:10:57,240
for signing up. More or less premium subscribers get it.

222
00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,879
You get four of the steam room rooms per month.

223
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,399
Speaker 4: Again, it's a steal. We cannot have going to do

224
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:04,000
it for long.

225
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,799
Speaker 3: But this three sixty five, I want people to partner

226
00:11:06,879 --> 00:11:09,639
up with me kel for the next year, for twenty

227
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,919
twenty six, so we could meet up every week in

228
00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:14,320
the steam room, do it right, and actually make money

229
00:11:14,519 --> 00:11:16,320
over the next twelve months bet in sports.

230
00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,440
Speaker 4: So I'm really excited. Thank you for giving me a

231
00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:19,000
minute to share.

232
00:11:19,159 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 5: Yeah.

233
00:11:19,399 --> 00:11:22,879
Speaker 1: Absolutely, that's what we're doing here. We are sharing on

234
00:11:22,919 --> 00:11:26,240
this Saturday morning. I already shared a ton of sharp plays.

235
00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,000
I will get a few more of those out as

236
00:11:29,039 --> 00:11:31,279
well as Art de Caesar from the West Gates, Suberwooks

237
00:11:31,399 --> 00:11:34,039
best bet for you guys before Steve Merrill comes off.

238
00:11:34,039 --> 00:11:35,600
But we've got a few more minutes with VR here

239
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:37,919
are you? And I talked about this on bet on

240
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:39,639
It and I kind of want to get into it

241
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:41,799
a little bit more. My buddy Steven hit me up

242
00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:44,720
last night and for years I've helped Steven with whether

243
00:11:44,799 --> 00:11:47,720
it's some of his contests in NFL college football, and

244
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,559
he goes, hey, I'm entering that Bowl contest again, do

245
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:49,879
you want in?

246
00:11:49,879 --> 00:11:51,120
Speaker 2: And I said no, I.

247
00:11:51,159 --> 00:11:54,039
Speaker 1: Said, I just last year I get so frustrated. Well,

248
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,080
first of all, the spreadlocks right, just like every other contest.

249
00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:01,759
So they had problem is once the first game kicks

250
00:12:01,759 --> 00:12:05,519
off like today, guess what all of your selections. Luck,

251
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,879
you can't change it because it's an old school where

252
00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:10,320
you send it in like an Excel sheet. Now, if

253
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,200
it was like an on splash where I could change

254
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,919
it up until kickoff, I might consider it right. But

255
00:12:15,039 --> 00:12:17,559
unfortunately you can't, I said Steven, I'm sorry, I'm out,

256
00:12:17,799 --> 00:12:20,679
I said him, like Mark Lawrence's Ball Guide, and that

257
00:12:20,799 --> 00:12:23,080
was it. I said, good luck, And I kind of

258
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,519
feel that way. Let's kind of talk about bullseason, how

259
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:27,960
you're going to approach bullseason, what you guys have already

260
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,879
seen for ballseason, and how we should be candicapping what

261
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,919
feels like unhandicappable the Bulls.

262
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll tell you what cal because by this time

263
00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:41,039
of the year, whether we like it or not.

264
00:12:41,039 --> 00:12:42,720
Speaker 4: We've all drawn our conclusions.

265
00:12:42,799 --> 00:12:46,480
Speaker 3: We're all biased on teams that this team's good, this

266
00:12:46,519 --> 00:12:47,320
team sucks like.

267
00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,559
Speaker 4: It's hard to change that up.

268
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,279
Speaker 3: When we get this late into the season, and then

269
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,840
between now and the bowl game, we're gonna hear nothing

270
00:12:54,879 --> 00:12:55,480
but noise.

271
00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,679
Speaker 4: This team's players aren't playing, this coach.

272
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,799
Speaker 3: Is gone, Like all all these factors that we don't

273
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,639
have to deal with during the regular season, and more importantly,

274
00:13:04,639 --> 00:13:07,399
all these factors that are so impossible to quantify. What

275
00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:10,639
is that actually worth? Like when that coach leaves and

276
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:12,320
isn't going to be there for the bowl game, what

277
00:13:12,399 --> 00:13:13,919
is it worth? There's worth two points to the ligne,

278
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,720
six points to the line, Like, what is it really

279
00:13:15,759 --> 00:13:19,559
actually worth? Do we have a sample size? That's the problem.

280
00:13:19,759 --> 00:13:24,840
We're all kind of speculating. And the more you speculate,

281
00:13:24,919 --> 00:13:26,279
the more you go out on the risk curve.

282
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 4: The more you go out on the risk curve, the

283
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:29,759
more your return needs to be because you're taking on

284
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:30,360
more risk.

285
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 3: And in sports betting, unfortunately, we're laying eleven to win

286
00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,519
ten pretty much with every single bet, so it's not

287
00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,240
like we could change that.

288
00:13:38,759 --> 00:13:40,679
Speaker 4: So you just got to be more selective.

289
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,519
Speaker 3: That's the key with the bowl games, just because it's

290
00:13:43,519 --> 00:13:48,080
the standalone TV game like today with Washington and Boise State, Like,

291
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,480
if you don't feel you have a good bet, you

292
00:13:51,519 --> 00:13:52,799
don't have to get involved.

293
00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:53,879
Speaker 4: That's the key.

294
00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,360
Speaker 3: But because it's bowl games, because it's playoffs, because they're

295
00:13:57,399 --> 00:13:58,240
TV games.

296
00:13:58,799 --> 00:13:59,919
Speaker 4: Everybody wants action.

297
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,200
Speaker 3: That's whereas a sharp better you can take advantage of

298
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,840
it as well, because if you're not going to get

299
00:14:05,879 --> 00:14:09,320
ahead of the information, no again, unless this is what

300
00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,960
you do, it's hard to get out ahead.

301
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,559
Speaker 4: Of the sportsbooks before they're able to.

302
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,039
Speaker 3: Adjust their lines. So, as I touched on bet on it,

303
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,919
what you have to do to take advantage. Wait till

304
00:14:18,919 --> 00:14:22,799
the information is confirmed, till you know these players are out,

305
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:24,200
this coach is gone.

306
00:14:24,519 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 4: And then when the.

307
00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:29,240
Speaker 3: Market overreacts, because we always do. We think players are

308
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,360
worth more to the line, we think coaches are worth

309
00:14:32,399 --> 00:14:36,120
more to the game, and once we start overreacting, then

310
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:40,159
you take advantage. That's the best way for recreational betters

311
00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:43,200
to make money during the bowl season. It's hard to

312
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,240
do because it's kind of like I say, without trading,

313
00:14:46,399 --> 00:14:48,279
you got to be able to run into a burning

314
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,960
building when everything's crashing. Do you have are you built

315
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,799
for that? When the stock markets crashing and they're telling

316
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,639
you bitcoins going to zero, China just banned it, FTX

317
00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:02,080
is collapsing, going to prison, do you have the guts

318
00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,600
to go in and buy it at eighteen thousand or not?

319
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,320
That's the same thing with sports betting. Do you have

320
00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:10,440
the guts to go up and bet that Tennessee Titans

321
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,919
because of line value? The Raiders because of line value?

322
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,320
We know they suck by this year, this time of

323
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,360
the year. And it's the same with the bowl games.

324
00:15:19,559 --> 00:15:20,279
Speaker 4: Some of these.

325
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 3: Teams, Hey be twenty thirty point dogs to Ohio States

326
00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:28,000
of College Football, but still you know in a game

327
00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,679
by game basis, there's a lot of value to take

328
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,759
advantage of because again betters are going to be betting

329
00:15:33,799 --> 00:15:36,679
these games called that don't haven't been following the teams

330
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:40,240
all year, don't have the information and just want the action,

331
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:44,000
and you could take advantage of that. Going anti narrative,

332
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,240
this is where you want to fade the public. Not

333
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,519
in every game, but you don't want to be afraid

334
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:50,720
to faith. I don't want to say faith the public,

335
00:15:50,759 --> 00:15:54,080
faith the narrative because we tend to overreact when it

336
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:55,039
comes to ball season.

337
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

338
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 2: I try to get ahead of a couple of things VR.

339
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:00,519
One of them was Clemson.

340
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,080
Speaker 1: I said, all right, I think we are going to

341
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,840
see some pen state opt outs. We laid three with

342
00:16:04,919 --> 00:16:07,080
Clemson at a couple of different spots, and I thought,

343
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,639
you know what, if it comes back, we can bet

344
00:16:09,679 --> 00:16:11,159
the other side. We can bet off of it. There's

345
00:16:11,159 --> 00:16:13,279
not like a massive amount. God all the way up

346
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,080
to five and a half in some shops. And then

347
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,759
somebody said, uh ah, these people are wrong, and I

348
00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:20,000
thought that exact same thing. I'm like, maybe we got

349
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,000
told wrong about the opt outs. We've only seen a

350
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,919
couple so far. We'll see how it ends up playing

351
00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,159
out over the next couple of weeks. But we have

352
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:31,159
historically seen when head coaches leave that the team that's

353
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:35,519
favored that is more intact right, like a Clemson versus

354
00:16:35,559 --> 00:16:39,360
a Penn State, the line gets so out of control.

355
00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter though. It just ends up being a blowout.

356
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 1: The most recent one that comes to mind that I

357
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,200
had a ton of early money on was like case

358
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,519
eight minus three and a half over LSU. I think

359
00:16:48,519 --> 00:16:51,559
it closed nine and a half or ten. In Case

360
00:16:51,639 --> 00:16:55,559
it didn't matter. Casey just blew out an unmotivated, un

361
00:16:55,879 --> 00:16:57,399
head coached, you.

362
00:16:57,279 --> 00:16:58,559
Speaker 2: Know, LSU team.

363
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,519
Speaker 1: And so when you say, Okay, I'm gonna fade the

364
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,160
narrative because I don't feel like fading. Those types of

365
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,799
narratives have been profitable as of late at least to

366
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:09,680
recent memory.

367
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,519
Speaker 3: No, And you're right, that's the problem. It's like a

368
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,119
a an individual game by game basis. And again, if

369
00:17:17,799 --> 00:17:20,160
it all comes down to this sample size, you know,

370
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,319
like you said, like over the last couple it hasn't

371
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:25,480
worked for you. But I think if you go back

372
00:17:25,559 --> 00:17:28,759
further and further, it probably hasn't done.

373
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,039
Speaker 1: I think the big thing is is that this is

374
00:17:31,039 --> 00:17:32,640
still a relatively new concept.

375
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:32,880
Speaker 2: Right.

376
00:17:33,279 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've always had coaches leave, but that's because of

377
00:17:37,279 --> 00:17:40,440
the timing of springball and things like that. But with

378
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,640
nil the transfer portal, I think it's just gotten so

379
00:17:43,799 --> 00:17:44,960
much more significant.

380
00:17:45,079 --> 00:17:45,240
Speaker 5: Right.

381
00:17:45,559 --> 00:17:47,920
Speaker 1: You may have had a Josh Rosen back in the

382
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,240
day at UCLA opt out and you'd see the line

383
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,920
move three points. Fine, the head coach is still there,

384
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,359
the backup quarterback knows the system whatever. But now it's

385
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,279
like the quarterback's opting out, the head coach is gone.

386
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,960
Top three receivers they're running back everybody.

387
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,559
Speaker 3: That's where you got to walk away that those are

388
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:08,599
fadable because you nailed it. You can only adjust so much,

389
00:18:09,599 --> 00:18:13,839
and and then there's still value fading that, Like you

390
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,839
could still fade that after it's been adjusted, because like

391
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:18,160
you said, it's new.

392
00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 4: We don't have even the books, don't know what it's worth.

393
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 3: So don't be afraid to bet that team that just

394
00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:29,200
lost the coach, lost the players even after the adjustment,

395
00:18:29,319 --> 00:18:32,000
because you can only move it so much. It's kind

396
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,720
of like with weather's bad or you know, two stud pitchers.

397
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,359
They're only going to bring the total down so low and.

398
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,799
Speaker 2: Sometimes like a four in Major League Baseball, we'll.

399
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 6: Never see one five and a half. And when I

400
00:18:45,079 --> 00:18:47,519
first came here, tell the lowest they went was seven.

401
00:18:47,799 --> 00:18:50,599
Picture that, so it didn't matter. There was never a

402
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,359
six and a half. There was no such thing as

403
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:53,079
a six and a half.

404
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,519
Speaker 3: It was seven's juice to maybe minus one fifty, but

405
00:18:56,799 --> 00:18:59,960
they wouldn't go to sixes. Now you know the mark,

406
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:02,720
it's kind of become more efficient, and I think you

407
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,200
could do that with college football for.

408
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 4: A little bit, where they haven't caught up to what

409
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:07,200
that's worth.

410
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, forget on that spot's fading, the narrative, that's fading,

411
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:12,119
the bay of team.

412
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 4: I think you're better off.

413
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:13,759
Speaker 5: All right.

414
00:19:13,799 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 1: We broke down Army Navy before we get see Merrill,

415
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,119
we'll waiting for him to pop on here. So we

416
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:19,720
can let VR get out of here and get to work,

417
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,640
and then we've got Kyle Anthony for UFC. But we

418
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,039
talked about Army Navy on bet on It this week

419
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,200
and I still have not gotten to the window. Our

420
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,839
producer Louis text me just a minute ago when I

421
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,279
was off camera and said, I think I got a

422
00:19:31,319 --> 00:19:34,200
bet Navy, and I thought, oh, I really feel like

423
00:19:34,279 --> 00:19:35,799
this is that sharp square game.

424
00:19:36,279 --> 00:19:38,599
Speaker 2: I understand why everybody likes Navy. I mean, if you.

425
00:19:38,519 --> 00:19:40,880
Speaker 1: Look at the offensive metrics, they're top fifteen in a

426
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,880
ton of different metrics.

427
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:43,599
Speaker 5: Army.

428
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 1: I did see that defense though against Kansas State, and

429
00:19:46,279 --> 00:19:49,240
they were able to control the time of possession. So

430
00:19:49,279 --> 00:19:52,200
I keep, you know, going back and forth here, what

431
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,039
are you guys seeing from like a betting perspective.

432
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:55,039
Speaker 2: Are the sharps.

433
00:19:54,759 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 1: Getting involved with this game or is this just one

434
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,559
of those games? Like all right, here's a mild opinion.

435
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,039
If you I really feel like you need to get

436
00:20:01,079 --> 00:20:03,680
involved because it's you know, there's no other Bowl games

437
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:04,920
on today.

438
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 3: Army had the toughest strength to schedule and is the

439
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,799
better defense. But obviously Navy, with the record and the offense,

440
00:20:13,039 --> 00:20:16,440
looks like the sexier side. Sharp's got involved when this

441
00:20:16,559 --> 00:20:17,559
line opened up.

442
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 4: They bet the Navy side at minus four and a

443
00:20:20,759 --> 00:20:22,920
half minus five. That was it.

444
00:20:23,319 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 3: Since then, it's been the public that's hitting it. That's

445
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,880
why we're not at seven yet. Had this been Sharp

446
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,599
money at six six and a half, we'd be looking

447
00:20:31,599 --> 00:20:34,640
at seven juice. The reason we're not looking at seven

448
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,559
juice is because the fear of if we go to seven,

449
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,960
are we now going to be sitting in the middle

450
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,160
where we got Navy minus four and a half five,

451
00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:48,359
Army plus seven, this one land six we're paying everybody.

452
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,599
That's what they're fighting right now. How much risk are

453
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,319
they going to take on Navy? Because remember, don't forget,

454
00:20:55,599 --> 00:20:58,200
the teaser is gonna start piling up even though there's

455
00:20:58,279 --> 00:21:01,359
not much to tease it with. There's bowl games ahead

456
00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:05,359
for next week, the week after that playoff college football,

457
00:21:05,599 --> 00:21:07,599
So don't think they're not going to tease this game

458
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,039
down with Navy. Money line parlays down with Navy. So

459
00:21:11,039 --> 00:21:13,839
it's gonna come down to will they go to seven.

460
00:21:14,039 --> 00:21:16,720
If they don't go to seven, that's a telling sign.

461
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,240
On the Army sign, that's a telling, telling sign. So

462
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,839
if you like the Navy sign, what you need to

463
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:25,839
be paying attention to. You want this to go to seven.

464
00:21:26,279 --> 00:21:29,960
You want this to kickoff at seven, Juice this one

465
00:21:30,319 --> 00:21:32,839
kicks off at six and a half, where worse goes

466
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,279
back to six. I wouldn't be comfortable with that Navy

467
00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:40,279
ticket in my pocket. I want that at seven. Otherwise

468
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,200
I'd be looking to the Army sign because that's the

469
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,480
side I was leaning to. Anyway, I just don't have

470
00:21:44,599 --> 00:21:48,920
that conviction to really bet Army other than like I said,

471
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,599
tougher strength to schedule better defense obviously motivated the Service

472
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,319
Academy type of game. You know, other Army has nothing

473
00:21:56,319 --> 00:21:59,079
else to play for but trying to beat Navy. So

474
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,599
you know there's that motivation. But on paper Navy is

475
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,880
the better team, but with a low total.

476
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,279
Speaker 4: It's take the points.

477
00:22:06,079 --> 00:22:08,599
Speaker 3: Or passed for myself and where this line sits right now?

478
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,400
Like I said, one signed money on Navy, but we're

479
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,480
not looking at seven. To me, it's it's Army or

480
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,640
pass right now. Like I said, if you have Navy,

481
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,720
you want to see seven on that board for sure.

482
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,519
Speaker 1: I got some smartasses in the comments section using case

483
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:24,480
it as your data point.

484
00:22:24,519 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 2: Is it wise? Sorry, Sean, It's the only Army game

485
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,559
I watched all season long. It's just the reality.

486
00:22:30,599 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 1: That's the only Army game I watched all season long.

487
00:22:33,599 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 2: It is what it is.

488
00:22:35,319 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: VR, Thank you so much for hanging out with this

489
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,480
every single Saturday here, blessing us with your knowledge, sharp

490
00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:46,599
action and really just making us better, better myself included

491
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,559
ACE three sixty five, that's WT dot buzz backslash ACE

492
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,920
three sixty five that is his special website to go

493
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,400
partner up with him for the entire year, less than

494
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:58,400
three dollars a day.

495
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: That is the way to do it.

496
00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 1: If you want to link up with vrcause, then you're

497
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,839
getting access to the steamsheet, the steam room, the blackjack course,

498
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:10,599
and every single premium play he releases agrig Underscore Gambler

499
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,440
on social media. VR is back tomorrow with Ariel Epstein

500
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,759
for another NFL Saturday.

501
00:23:17,279 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: Thank you, VR.

502
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: We will see you on Wednesday for the next episode

503
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,799
of Beat on It. Let's bring in Steve Merril. He's

504
00:23:22,799 --> 00:23:26,240
gonna answer all of your college basketball questions. There's a

505
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,039
ton of them in the chat, so we're gonna just

506
00:23:28,079 --> 00:23:28,839
get right in it.

507
00:23:29,079 --> 00:23:30,799
Speaker 2: Good morning, Steve Merrill.

508
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 7: There you go. I so couldn't figure out why my

509
00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:37,480
mouse had been working for the last two weeks since

510
00:23:37,519 --> 00:23:39,839
I traveled for Thanksgiving. And I realized it because a

511
00:23:39,839 --> 00:23:42,319
little USB thing I'd stuck in here was not stuck

512
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,079
into my thing. So just now as I was listening

513
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,640
to Ace finished up, I was like, oh, I'll make

514
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,039
it work, and it kicked off my ring light, my

515
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,119
MIC my connection too much overload. So that's why the

516
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,680
light was off because I just restarted. It's always something.

517
00:23:54,440 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 1: So, yeah, you guys didn't know, well, he does wonders

518
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,279
from the handicapping side of things. He's not very good

519
00:24:03,319 --> 00:24:07,839
at technology. That is his that is his one downfall.

520
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,160
Let's kind of get into some of these college basketball

521
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,960
games here for today, Steve Merrill. We're gonna go right

522
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,720
off the top. I'm going all the way back to

523
00:24:15,759 --> 00:24:17,319
the earlier questions. So if you guys have a question,

524
00:24:17,519 --> 00:24:20,160
drop it in the chat and we will get it answered.

525
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,640
First one KSE State plus four and a half here

526
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,119
they are at Creighton. The reason why I bring this

527
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,799
one up, Steve, is because when Art de Caesar sent

528
00:24:27,839 --> 00:24:30,279
me his exhaustive list this morning, I thought, K State

529
00:24:30,279 --> 00:24:32,240
plus four and a half, why would you want to bet

530
00:24:32,559 --> 00:24:35,160
this team that lives and dies by the three. They

531
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:42,319
were ice cold from three basically at Indiana. That's subsequent

532
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,599
three games, and then they beat Utah, that Mississippi Valley

533
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,359
state of the poor. I don't know women's team. I

534
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,559
don't know what it was. They were laying thirty seven

535
00:24:51,559 --> 00:24:53,640
and a half, blew their doors off, and now all

536
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:54,720
of a sudden, we want to go back to the

537
00:24:54,759 --> 00:24:55,480
well with this team.

538
00:24:55,519 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 2: But like, do you believe in get right spots? Is

539
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,279
that is that? What's going on here is like, oh,

540
00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:02,200
this is a get.

541
00:25:02,039 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 1: Right spot for KSE State because they got right versus

542
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,480
a crappy team. Now they've gotten some of the kinks

543
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,799
out able to go in to Creighton and get the win.

544
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,799
Speaker 2: I'm kind of confused here about this line.

545
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,799
Speaker 7: I gave everybody a great free play earlier this week

546
00:25:15,839 --> 00:25:18,400
with your KSE State Wildcats. I used the over ninety

547
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,759
eight and a half team total ooys and it was

548
00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:23,000
it was actually Monday, because I told Joe Matt and

549
00:25:23,039 --> 00:25:25,000
I did last Call Monday, and I put I did

550
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,000
a video for that. There were two games, two ugly

551
00:25:27,039 --> 00:25:29,079
games on Monday night. I did the Texas game against

552
00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:32,720
Southern and this KSE State Mississippi Valley State game, and

553
00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:34,799
as I dug into it more, I really started liking

554
00:25:34,799 --> 00:25:37,000
that team total Over because KSE State had lost four

555
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,640
to row, but their first five wins this year, they'd

556
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,680
scored ninety nine ninety eight or more and three of

557
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,279
the five ninety three or more and four of the

558
00:25:43,319 --> 00:25:45,559
five all five had gone over. They played at the

559
00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:49,039
twelfth fastest pace in the country, and after four losses, Kelly,

560
00:25:49,079 --> 00:25:50,440
you knew they were going to be a foul moots.

561
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,680
I really loved that team total Over. Should have made

562
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,000
it a client play, But you know a lot of

563
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,880
people don't have access still to college basketball team totals.

564
00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:59,680
Even some of the big global books don't offer it.

565
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,519
But to get back to that Mississippi Valley State win,

566
00:26:03,079 --> 00:26:06,079
there are three hundred and sixty five Division one basketball teams.

567
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:07,359
If you look at Ken Palm or any of the

568
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,640
other metrics you want to use on efficiency, Mississippi Valley

569
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,799
State is the worst Division one college basketball team in

570
00:26:12,839 --> 00:26:16,200
the country this year. Their only win came against MoU

571
00:26:16,599 --> 00:26:19,200
muw and I had to look that one up. It's

572
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,519
obviously not a Division one school Mississippi College for Women,

573
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:24,720
so I had to go down that rabbit hole, and

574
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,440
I dug even deeper when they were found in the

575
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,640
eighteen seventies. I'm not messing with you. I'm not trying

576
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:32,960
to get canceled here. It was called the Mississippi Industrial

577
00:26:33,079 --> 00:26:35,720
Institute in College for the education of white girls. I

578
00:26:35,799 --> 00:26:37,559
swear to you that's what this school was called. So

579
00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:40,079
to put it in perspective, this was not a great

580
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,400
win for Kansas State, but they got back on track,

581
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,799
as you said, and now it's a huge step up

582
00:26:44,839 --> 00:26:47,640
in class after that oneh eight forty nine win. Ky

583
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,920
State has not stepped up in class well this season.

584
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,359
And I projected about a seven seven and a half

585
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,960
point line here, so I would lean towards Creighton. And

586
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,400
Creighton is coming off a bad loss by twenty one

587
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,480
points against Nebraska last Sunday, so it looks like a

588
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,319
focused spot for Creighton, and I think they're the better team.

589
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,519
And it's all about tempo. You know, we talked about

590
00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:07,960
ky State being one of the fastest teams in the country. Well,

591
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,039
Creighton plays extremely slow. They're around three hundredth in tempo,

592
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,880
so I think at home they're going to dictate the

593
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,160
Tempoh and frustrate your case State Wildcats today. Yeah.

594
00:27:17,279 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: K State team totals have been absolute utter money, as

595
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:22,720
have the game totals.

596
00:27:22,759 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 2: I think they're seven to two to the over. I

597
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,000
need to double check that out.

598
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,039
Speaker 7: Be careful with that one today, though, Kel because as

599
00:27:29,039 --> 00:27:31,599
you know, Creighton plays a lot slower and I don't

600
00:27:31,599 --> 00:27:33,279
think they're gonna be able to dictate the tempo. So

601
00:27:33,279 --> 00:27:35,359
that would be one today. Maybe goes under today with

602
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:35,880
K State.

603
00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:37,519
Speaker 2: All right, keep an eye on that one, guys.

604
00:27:37,759 --> 00:27:42,279
Speaker 1: Question from the chats Arizona Alabama Guys, I forgot to

605
00:27:42,279 --> 00:27:44,559
tell you at the start of the show. I'm not

606
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,640
super nippiggy during college football, but during college basketball I'm

607
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,400
gonna need those rotation numbers because it makes it a

608
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,160
lot easier when searching for these games on the Odds

609
00:27:54,319 --> 00:27:57,720
logic screen. Steve Merrill, give me this current line on

610
00:27:57,799 --> 00:27:59,799
this game, and of course your thoughts.

611
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,039
Speaker 7: Well, I need a rotation number two. What do you

612
00:28:02,079 --> 00:28:04,039
think I can just memorize all of these games? Yeah,

613
00:28:04,079 --> 00:28:06,640
there's a lot of games here. My thoughts are this

614
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,240
should be a very tight game. We'll see what the

615
00:28:08,319 --> 00:28:10,920
current number is here as I scroll down. Yeah, we

616
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:12,039
really do need rotation number.

617
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:13,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, I try to do control.

618
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: You can do command F on Apple and Search, so

619
00:28:16,759 --> 00:28:18,039
I thought I'm going to do right now, But of

620
00:28:18,079 --> 00:28:19,880
course I got to update my odds logic.

621
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 2: You know, these things make life.

622
00:28:22,839 --> 00:28:25,559
Speaker 7: Arizona. Yeah, this game was picked and that's why I

623
00:28:25,559 --> 00:28:27,359
wanted to check. It's now too, and it's actually the

624
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,519
board is lighting up right now. Yes, from one and

625
00:28:29,519 --> 00:28:31,759
a half to two on Arizona. Because that's another reason

626
00:28:32,279 --> 00:28:33,920
you want to check these lines. We're doing this show

627
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,839
eleven thirty am Eastern Saturday. I don't want to give

628
00:28:35,839 --> 00:28:38,079
you a number from thirty minutes ago because it's probably changed.

629
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,200
So yeah, now it's it was one and a half

630
00:28:40,279 --> 00:28:43,359
before the show. Now it's Arizona minus two. We've seen

631
00:28:43,359 --> 00:28:45,079
a little bit of money coming on them, not a surprise.

632
00:28:45,119 --> 00:28:47,440
We've seen money coming on the over from one seventy

633
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,200
two and a half up to one seventy eight now

634
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,880
even one seventy eight and a half out. There should

635
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,440
be a high scoring game, no question about it. Alabama,

636
00:28:54,759 --> 00:28:58,039
once again not a surprise, plays extremely fast. Case States

637
00:28:58,079 --> 00:29:00,559
tenth this year. There were twelfth on Monday. They're now tenth.

638
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,960
Alabama's ninth so Alabama plays even faster than ky State

639
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:08,039
and tempo. Arizona a top thirty five tempo team as well,

640
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,359
So biggest total on the board. And you know something

641
00:29:10,359 --> 00:29:12,680
to Ralph Michaels and myself, Steve Merrill love to say

642
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,839
the highest totals go over and the lowest totals go under.

643
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,559
So we've seen a lot of sharp money on the over.

644
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,759
I would not disagree. These are two of the best

645
00:29:19,799 --> 00:29:24,359
offensive teams in the country. Shouldn't be many turnovers either, Bama.

646
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,079
As fast as Bama plays, they do not force turnovers.

647
00:29:27,119 --> 00:29:29,440
They're not a pressure team. They just want to get

648
00:29:29,519 --> 00:29:31,759
up and score. The one thing that jumps out of

649
00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:33,640
me when I'm looking at my matchup metrics, which I'd

650
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,400
like to do with really highly ranked teams like this,

651
00:29:35,599 --> 00:29:38,440
is where is there maybe a weakness and one thing.

652
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:42,079
Arizona relies heavily on his two point shooting. Alabama's got

653
00:29:42,079 --> 00:29:44,680
a very mediocre two point defense because they play fast.

654
00:29:44,759 --> 00:29:46,759
So yeah, I think both teams could score here. I

655
00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:48,400
think that's one of the reasons we've seen money coming

656
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,039
on Arizona because it's a favorable matchup, and we've definitely

657
00:29:51,079 --> 00:29:52,160
seen money coming on the over.

658
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 2: All right, I think this is an old swack ooh

659
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:58,759
game right.

660
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: Texas Tech right here odds logic screen Steve Merrill rotation

661
00:30:04,039 --> 00:30:07,319
number six oh one six h two open one and

662
00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:08,839
a half in favor of Tech.

663
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: They're moving up to two.

664
00:30:10,359 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: Starting to light up here a little bit more on

665
00:30:12,279 --> 00:30:17,160
the total though, one fifty five pretty much across the board.

666
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,599
Speaker 2: Kind of your thoughts on these two teams this year?

667
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: I hand up, guys, I have not been as involved

668
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:24,599
in college basketball as I should have been, and that's

669
00:30:24,599 --> 00:30:25,960
what we got guys like Steve marrill on.

670
00:30:27,559 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 7: Yeah. Look, and it's nothing wrong with not being involved

671
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,839
with college hoops, like we talked about last week in November.

672
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,279
In early December. Everyone, as I told you last week,

673
00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:36,680
nobody knows anything in November. Don't let them. Even the

674
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,039
coaches don't know what they have because half their rosters.

675
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:43,039
New transfer portal hasn't played more than one or two

676
00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:46,240
preseason exhibition games. But I do like to start diving

677
00:30:46,279 --> 00:30:48,160
in more to college hoops now for a couple of reasons.

678
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,720
First of all, we have ten plus games under our belt,

679
00:30:50,759 --> 00:30:52,720
so we have a good statistical sample to look at

680
00:30:52,799 --> 00:30:55,559
the matchup analysis stuff. I'm giving now is legit. And

681
00:30:55,599 --> 00:30:58,039
the other reason, Kelly, is because they're an exam periods

682
00:30:58,079 --> 00:30:59,680
right now and this will be kind of over after

683
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,079
next week. But we're getting very close to conference play,

684
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,640
and I really feel like after that exam period, maybe

685
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:07,759
give them one game to get back late December on.

686
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,079
We're in full throttle college basketball mode here and this

687
00:31:11,079 --> 00:31:13,400
should be a good game today. I think it'd be

688
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,400
one of the more competitive games. I've got Arkansas winning

689
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,319
by about two points here on average based on my

690
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,559
matchup projections, so I do think maybe the wrong team

691
00:31:21,599 --> 00:31:24,359
is favored here. I would say Arkansas is a live dog.

692
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,200
Little surprise to see that line go from one and

693
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,960
a half to two. As far as the matchup metrics here,

694
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,160
I rate Arkansas is the better team even and there

695
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,599
once again played the Texas Tech team that's pretty good

696
00:31:34,599 --> 00:31:36,920
as well. Arkansas plays a lot faster than Texas Tech,

697
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,319
so it probably will come down to tempo who can

698
00:31:39,319 --> 00:31:42,200
control things here. Arkansas gives up a lot of three

699
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,279
point shots and Texas Tech does take a lot of

700
00:31:44,319 --> 00:31:46,160
three so once again a little bit of a random

701
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,240
handicap here, and that's what kept us off my card,

702
00:31:48,559 --> 00:31:51,000
even though I think there's some value with Arkansas. It's

703
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,319
hard to predict those three point shots, and Texas Tech

704
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,119
is a good three point shooting team. Arkansas's giving up

705
00:31:56,119 --> 00:31:58,119
almost forty three percent of their points from beyond the

706
00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:59,960
arc this year. It's really going to come down to

707
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,240
if Texas Tech hits those threes.

708
00:32:01,279 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: Are not all right, Steve, We're just gonna keep going

709
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,799
down rotation number at least. This is how I'm going

710
00:32:06,839 --> 00:32:08,960
through the question so that I don't screw up too bad.

711
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,960
In Michigan State headed to Penn State, but they are

712
00:32:12,839 --> 00:32:15,160
now just an eleven point road favorite. We even have

713
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,079
a ten and a half here in Florida at the

714
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,960
hard Rock total one forty five. Any kind of thoughts

715
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,680
on if you miss the number here now you're down

716
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,400
to eleven one and a half point line move? Is

717
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:30,319
that enough to keep you.

718
00:32:30,319 --> 00:32:30,839
Speaker 2: Off a game?

719
00:32:32,119 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 7: I predict about an eleven point win, so I think

720
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,880
the line is fair. And one thing I do with

721
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,279
all sports is you know, is look at situational setups.

722
00:32:39,279 --> 00:32:41,720
In college basketball, I also look at tempo and pace

723
00:32:41,799 --> 00:32:43,759
a lot. You want to try to play slow teams

724
00:32:43,759 --> 00:32:45,799
against fast teams. I also look at matchups or a

725
00:32:45,839 --> 00:32:47,880
team as a strength versus a weakness, maybe like a

726
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,559
good pressure defense against a team that turns it over

727
00:32:50,599 --> 00:32:52,359
a lot, or as I mentioned, teams allow a lot

728
00:32:52,359 --> 00:32:54,720
of threes versus a team that hits threes. Careful though

729
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,279
with three points, you know, predicting three point margins kind

730
00:32:57,279 --> 00:33:00,400
of like trying to predict turnovers and football vers and

731
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,559
football basket. Three point shooting in both the NBA and

732
00:33:02,559 --> 00:33:05,599
college hoops decides most games. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to

733
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,799
predict ahead of time. But as far as the situational

734
00:33:08,839 --> 00:33:10,599
set up here, it should be a focused spot for

735
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,720
Michigan State. So as I said, I projected an eleven

736
00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:14,559
point win, but I'm actually wanting to give up a

737
00:33:14,599 --> 00:33:17,400
little line value here because of the situational setup. And

738
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,480
I say that because after an eight to zero start,

739
00:33:19,799 --> 00:33:22,160
they dropped their first game of the season last Saturday

740
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,119
against Duke sixty six to sixty. So you've got one

741
00:33:25,119 --> 00:33:27,200
of the best teams in the country, always one of

742
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,759
the best coach teams in the country under Tom Izzo,

743
00:33:30,079 --> 00:33:32,319
coming off their first loss of the season, and now

744
00:33:32,359 --> 00:33:35,400
they're facing a very mediocre Penn State team that also

745
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,640
lost to Indiana. But they lost that game by forty

746
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,480
one points on Tuesday. Their other laws against Providence came

747
00:33:42,519 --> 00:33:44,680
by twelve. So the two times Penn State has lost

748
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,160
this year has both been by double digits. It would

749
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:48,799
be Michigan State or pass for me in this one

750
00:33:48,799 --> 00:33:51,119
should be a focused spot for the Spartans, and both

751
00:33:51,119 --> 00:33:54,240
teams play fairly slow. I just think Michigan State does

752
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,880
it better. And speaking of three point rates, both teams

753
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,279
give up a lot of threes, but neither team takes

754
00:33:59,319 --> 00:34:01,640
many threes. So here again, it should be a fairly

755
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,039
clean handicap. I think Michigan State has a big edge

756
00:34:04,039 --> 00:34:04,480
down low.

757
00:34:04,839 --> 00:34:06,799
Speaker 1: All right, I've been waiting to talk about this game

758
00:34:06,799 --> 00:34:09,599
because this is Art to Caesar's best Bet. I was

759
00:34:09,639 --> 00:34:11,599
waiting to slide that in. Now we've got almost three

760
00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:15,400
thousand of you guys watching live, so Art loves the

761
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,079
other side today, which is Illinois. Six sixt' nine six

762
00:34:19,199 --> 00:34:22,159
seventy is the rotation number. Illinois opened as a nine

763
00:34:22,199 --> 00:34:25,079
point favorite. Now we're starting to see a twelve pop

764
00:34:25,159 --> 00:34:29,920
up there at circa Steve one fifty six, one, fifty

765
00:34:30,039 --> 00:34:30,960
seven and fifty seven.

766
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: And this total is all over the board.

767
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 7: Yeah, so last week Art like Dayton, remember and I

768
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,239
said I was probably going to disagree with him because

769
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:39,760
that was going to be a mini home game for

770
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,239
UVA down in Charlotte. It was a neutral court, and

771
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,400
UVA basketball got it done by thirteen. Football was not

772
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,400
as fortunate. I'm sure the UVA fans would rather have

773
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,960
the opposite result. I'm probably the worst person to ask

774
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,000
about Illinois right now because I have faded them in

775
00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:56,000
each of their last two games without success. I've been

776
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,079
on a monster run. I probably am like seventy seventy

777
00:34:58,079 --> 00:35:00,400
five percent on all other sports best bets. Take those

778
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,480
two Illinois games out of the equation. The last couple

779
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,800
of weeks, Tennessee last Saturday bit me, and then I

780
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,639
thought it was a good spot to take Ohio State

781
00:35:07,639 --> 00:35:10,280
as a live home dog on Tuesday night, and that

782
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,559
was the only game I missed all week in basketball

783
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,559
to this point. So Illinois has been a team I

784
00:35:15,559 --> 00:35:17,679
haven't had a great read on. They've been playing better

785
00:35:17,679 --> 00:35:20,480
than I've expected, but I still think they're a little

786
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,480
bit overrated because of that. And now, after two outperformances,

787
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,639
not afraid here to maybe take aside when Nebraska, who

788
00:35:26,679 --> 00:35:29,559
I do rank as a top thirty team, Nebraska gives

789
00:35:29,639 --> 00:35:32,480
up a ton of three point percentage of points. In fact,

790
00:35:32,519 --> 00:35:35,119
they're three hundred and sixty five teams. They give up

791
00:35:35,159 --> 00:35:37,400
the fourth most points from three point range of the country.

792
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,679
Over fifty percent of their opponent's points come from beyond

793
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:43,119
the arc. And Illinois is a decent three pointing team.

794
00:35:43,159 --> 00:35:44,559
So once again, you know it's gonna come down to

795
00:35:44,559 --> 00:35:46,199
three point shooting. But if Illinois is off by a

796
00:35:46,199 --> 00:35:47,840
little bit here, which I think they're probably due to be,

797
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,000
might not be a bad spot for Nebraska. And both

798
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:52,880
teams take care of the ball, excellent care of the

799
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,679
ball here, So that's another reason we've maybe seen that

800
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,119
total move a bit. Should not be many turnovers in

801
00:35:57,159 --> 00:35:57,599
this game.

802
00:35:58,079 --> 00:36:01,119
Speaker 1: All right, next up, we're gonna just keep rattling through these.

803
00:36:01,199 --> 00:36:03,400
Kyle Anthony's waiting in the wings and talk UFC with

804
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,119
you guys. We've got to get these college basketball questions.

805
00:36:06,119 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: First. Thoughts on iu UK.

806
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: UH seven thirty tonight rotation number seven oh five seven

807
00:36:13,039 --> 00:36:17,159
O six. Indiana is headed to Kentucky. Kentucky opened is

808
00:36:17,159 --> 00:36:19,559
a four and a half point favorite, now as low

809
00:36:19,599 --> 00:36:22,239
as two and a half here on the Wager Talk

810
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:27,400
odd screen, Steve Merrill. Oh boy, it's Kentucky on upset alert.

811
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think you almost are getting value

812
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,800
now with Kentucky, which is crazy because I'm not a

813
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:34,440
fan of these teams that, you know, try to build

814
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,079
these twenty what is it a twenty million dollar payroll?

815
00:36:37,119 --> 00:36:39,199
I think they have for something. And Mark Pope, you

816
00:36:39,199 --> 00:36:41,079
gotta respect Mark Pope. I love what a coach comes

817
00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:43,480
down and says I've done a terrible job coaching. That's

818
00:36:43,519 --> 00:36:45,960
what he said. A few weeks ago after the three

819
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,519
and two start, they dropped an eight point loss to Louisville.

820
00:36:49,559 --> 00:36:51,679
They lost by seventeen to that Michigan State team we

821
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,400
just talked about, came back to nothing wins against Loyla, Maryland,

822
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,559
Tennessee Tech, and then they've since lost in North Carolina

823
00:36:57,559 --> 00:37:00,480
and Gonzaga and they just blew out North Carolina Central.

824
00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:03,400
So yeah, on the surface, their wins have not been impressive.

825
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,639
The other wins, by the way, Nicols State and Valparaiso,

826
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,760
but the losses have all come against good teams, and

827
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,159
Indiana is a good team. So we'll see if this

828
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,000
Kentucky team starts to gel or not. I think this

829
00:37:15,079 --> 00:37:16,760
might be the spot to use them. This is still

830
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,440
a very talented squad and I've kind of been waiting

831
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,199
for a spot to use them. And Mark Pope said,

832
00:37:21,199 --> 00:37:23,440
I've done a terrible job coaching, yet they have like

833
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,280
a twenty twenty five million dollar payroll. I think at

834
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,519
some point this team is going to break out. And

835
00:37:28,599 --> 00:37:30,760
at six and four I almost feel like we're fading

836
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,880
the public here by taking Kentucky against Indiana. And look,

837
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:35,599
I could be wrong, right, it would not shock me

838
00:37:35,639 --> 00:37:37,880
if they play awful again tonight, but I have a

839
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,360
sneaking suspicion tonight might be the time to use Kentucky.

840
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: All right, Steve, We've got a few more minutes with you,

841
00:37:43,559 --> 00:37:45,599
and I'm waiting for some more questions to populate. So

842
00:37:45,599 --> 00:37:48,480
this seems like a good time to hop in and say,

843
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,719
Steve MERRILLL what you got going on over at wager

844
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:51,519
talk dot com.

845
00:37:51,679 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 7: I know you all touched on the college football, but

846
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,519
I do have videos for both games today, the Army

847
00:37:55,599 --> 00:37:58,039
Navy game and also the I Love La the La

848
00:37:58,119 --> 00:38:01,920
Ball Kelly. It starts tonight Boise and Washington, and both

849
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,039
teams are gonna play full throttle. I like these early

850
00:38:04,079 --> 00:38:05,800
bowl games because you get less opt outs. You know,

851
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,679
the boys you just played last week Washington was basically

852
00:38:08,679 --> 00:38:11,199
a bye week. I do have a free play in

853
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,440
that game in the video. Also a deep dive into

854
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,639
the Army Navy game as well side and total. So

855
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,960
check out the videos for free here on wager Talk TV.

856
00:38:19,039 --> 00:38:21,000
And by the way, I'm gonna do every college football

857
00:38:21,039 --> 00:38:24,119
bowl game kind of. I didn't do the Celebration Bowl today.

858
00:38:24,159 --> 00:38:24,920
I didn't feel like something.

859
00:38:25,679 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: You say, you're not doing every single ball game.

860
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,679
Speaker 7: Now that's tech technicality. I'm doing every Division one A,

861
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,320
every FBS bowl game I am doing that's an FCS game.

862
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,719
In fact, when I recorded the LA Bowl earlier this week,

863
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,360
there was no line on that game, so I couldn't

864
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,519
even do it if I wanted to. Even the odds

865
00:38:40,519 --> 00:38:43,159
makers weren't celebrating that game until a day or so ago.

866
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,679
But the SCS playoffs for fun to watch. I'm not

867
00:38:45,679 --> 00:38:48,000
gonna do those. But yes, every every Big Boy Bowl

868
00:38:48,039 --> 00:38:51,039
game will be up here on wager Talk TV. And

869
00:38:51,199 --> 00:38:52,880
you know I'm gonna stagger him. I was about I

870
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,159
did the Blitz Show with Ralph and Brian on Thursday,

871
00:38:55,159 --> 00:38:57,360
and I was about to record that Troy game. For Tuesday,

872
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:58,880
because I kind of liked it in the line moved

873
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,000
right after the show, moved from three to two and

874
00:39:01,039 --> 00:39:03,199
a half off the key number. So I'm going to

875
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,519
record that maybe today or tomorrow. We'll get that up Monday.

876
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,280
My point is, click subscribe, click the bell. You will

877
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,519
get an instant alert when every bowl game is posted

878
00:39:10,559 --> 00:39:12,480
for free here on the channel. And oh yeah, don't

879
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,360
forget about the NFL. I've got previews for those huge

880
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:19,760
games Tomorrow afternoon, Packers and the Broncos. Also Lions, Rams,

881
00:39:20,199 --> 00:39:23,960
Sunday Night Football, Vikings, Cowboys, Monday Night Football, Steelers, Dolphins,

882
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,199
and yes we won again with the Thursday night Prime

883
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,000
game twelve and three. Now, as I gave you the Falcons,

884
00:39:29,039 --> 00:39:31,840
an outright winner had the Lions last week over the Cowboys.

885
00:39:32,039 --> 00:39:33,880
If you're not getting the free NFL plays, I don't

886
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:35,519
know what you're thinking. I'm number one in the NFL

887
00:39:35,559 --> 00:39:38,639
over the last year, up eighty three units going back

888
00:39:38,679 --> 00:39:41,639
over the past year in the NFL sixty and thirty

889
00:39:41,679 --> 00:39:44,400
five and O Kelly, I buried the lead. That's sixty

890
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,559
three percent, Fade. The public is sixty three percent for

891
00:39:47,599 --> 00:39:50,440
free this season, and I've got the five most public

892
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,719
plays for this Sunday loaded in my video for today,

893
00:39:53,079 --> 00:39:55,960
including three public dogs in those five games. Kelly, the

894
00:39:56,000 --> 00:40:01,559
public is stinky Dons scared they went. They've gone one

895
00:40:01,599 --> 00:40:03,719
in seven the last two weeks, two and nine the

896
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,519
last three weeks. We're sixty three percent fading them this

897
00:40:06,599 --> 00:40:08,719
season and they don't know what to do. There's only

898
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,760
one favorite in the official card this week.

899
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 2: Wow.

900
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: Crazy that is that is very very crazy. Let's hit

901
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:19,239
a couple more of these college basketball games. Oklahoma Oklahoma

902
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,679
State rotation over six seventeen six eighteen Oklahoma Open is

903
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:27,559
a one and a half point favorite total one sixty

904
00:40:27,599 --> 00:40:30,280
four and a half. This is up to one seventy

905
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,280
at a global book and two and a half pretty

906
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,159
much across the board. We're even starting to see some

907
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,679
threes populate on the Odds logic screen.

908
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,079
Speaker 7: Yeah, it should be another good game. We've got a

909
00:40:41,119 --> 00:40:42,679
lot of good matchups today that we're talking about. You,

910
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,480
they're picking some good games. All of these I have

911
00:40:44,639 --> 00:40:47,639
like within a basket. And here again I've got Oklahoma

912
00:40:47,679 --> 00:40:50,360
State winning this one by about two. Should be in

913
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,559
that one sixty range. Should be a high scoring game.

914
00:40:52,599 --> 00:40:55,280
And as we always talk about it's about tempo. Oklahoma

915
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,039
State's seventh fastest team. They're even faster than k State.

916
00:40:58,079 --> 00:41:01,239
They're even faster than Alabama. That's how fast Oklahoma State

917
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,079
plays this season. But Oklahoma is a slow down, half

918
00:41:04,119 --> 00:41:06,079
court team. They're in the bottom half of the pace

919
00:41:06,119 --> 00:41:09,119
and metrics. So we'll see who can dictate the tempo

920
00:41:09,159 --> 00:41:10,760
in this one. That's really what it's going to come

921
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,119
down to. I would say Oklahoma State and the over

922
00:41:13,199 --> 00:41:16,679
are some correlated, Oklahoma and the under are some correlated.

923
00:41:16,679 --> 00:41:18,599
And normally I don't recommend parlays, but for those of

924
00:41:18,639 --> 00:41:20,119
you that are new to sports betting, the only time

925
00:41:20,119 --> 00:41:22,360
you should do a two team parlay is if the

926
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,760
side in total are correlated, meaning that the outcomes are

927
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,000
somewhat co dependent on each other. Oklahoma State gives up

928
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,199
a lot of shots from three point range and Oklahoma

929
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,960
does hit some threes. This is a tough handicap here.

930
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,400
I think this one goes down to the wire. Normally

931
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,360
I sided to the team like Oklahoma that's more able

932
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,000
to slow the game down and dictate tempo.

933
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,159
Speaker 1: All right, last question before we get you out of here,

934
00:41:42,199 --> 00:41:48,199
Steve Maryland, because nobody's sending me rotation numbers Maryland Michigan

935
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:52,400
seven thirteen, seven fourteen. If you guys were listening earlier,

936
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,920
I know I saw some comments in the chat. They

937
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,000
were not happy that we didn't go over some early games.

938
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,440
We went over all of the early games at the

939
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:00,559
beginning of the show.

940
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:01,119
Speaker 2: Anyway.

941
00:42:01,199 --> 00:42:06,079
Speaker 1: We also went over Maryland being a sharp play here from.

942
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:07,400
Speaker 2: The Westgates super Book.

943
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 1: This one opened sixteen and a half eighteen currently at

944
00:42:10,079 --> 00:42:12,280
super Book. I know they took some money. I think

945
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,440
it was at nineteen. The total has also just gotten

946
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,599
completely blown up. Sitting at one fifty seven and a half,

947
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:20,559
Steve Sean asked the question.

948
00:42:20,599 --> 00:42:24,159
Speaker 2: He is a Michigan homer. He gets a little upset.

949
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,639
Speaker 1: But do you agree with him that Michigan is going

950
00:42:28,079 --> 00:42:30,760
to blow out yet another team or are we going

951
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,599
to start seeing teams figure out how to stop this

952
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,039
Wolverine's offense.

953
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, they're really good. A lot of metrics you can

954
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:42,320
look at, you know, obviously, adjusted offensive efficiency and defense,

955
00:42:42,639 --> 00:42:46,599
effective field goal percentage, wins above. Bubble is probably something

956
00:42:46,639 --> 00:42:47,960
we don't talk a lot about because I don't really

957
00:42:48,039 --> 00:42:49,840
use it from a handicapping perspective. But if you really

958
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:51,440
want to look at maybe who the best teams are

959
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:55,000
in the country. The wins above bubble stat is very interesting,

960
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,119
and Michigan is number one in that stat. By the way,

961
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,280
Maryland is only ninety third, but Michigan, and there's the

962
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,920
number one adjusted efficiency defense, number five offense, the number

963
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,000
two efficiency effective field goal percentage defense right at number

964
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,880
six offense. They're very good on both sides of the court,

965
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,519
is my point. But here's what jumps out to me.

966
00:43:12,559 --> 00:43:15,880
They have the number one two point percentage offense and

967
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,079
defense in the nation. Let that sink in. There are

968
00:43:18,079 --> 00:43:21,239
three hundred and sixty five teams and their best at

969
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,599
scoring and defending two pointers. And I bring that up

970
00:43:23,639 --> 00:43:26,239
once again because three point shootings, I said earlier, is

971
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,480
such a random variable. So when you're that consistent down low,

972
00:43:29,559 --> 00:43:32,599
you have size like they do, you're really good game

973
00:43:32,639 --> 00:43:35,440
after game. And then on top of that, they play fast.

974
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,199
They're the thirteenth fastest team in the country tempo wise.

975
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:40,760
That's why they're crushing everybody, and that's why they're a

976
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,599
very hard team to fade. I make them about a

977
00:43:43,679 --> 00:43:46,199
nineteen point favorite in this game, so I don't disagree

978
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,239
with that line move from seventeen and a half up

979
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,760
to eighteen eighteen and a half. Not a team I'm

980
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,000
looking to get in front of right now. And you

981
00:43:52,039 --> 00:43:55,559
look at their recent wins. They've beaten everybody except the

982
00:43:55,599 --> 00:43:58,960
TCU and Wake Forest games back in early November, which

983
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,239
were four point games at a one point overtime, when

984
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,840
they've won almost every other game, including the Villa Nova

985
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,119
game the other night, by eighteen or more. If you're

986
00:44:06,119 --> 00:44:07,519
gonna play it, you have to lay it right now

987
00:44:07,519 --> 00:44:08,039
with Michigan.

988
00:44:08,639 --> 00:44:10,119
Speaker 2: Sorry, Steve, I'm gonna disagree with you.

989
00:44:10,519 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 1: Sign me up to step in front of all the

990
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:13,559
freight trains.

991
00:44:13,679 --> 00:44:14,679
Speaker 2: That is my favorite.

992
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 7: You love that. You love getting hit by the freight trains.

993
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:18,159
You've been like that for forty years.

994
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 1: You're holding up on Bhi the freight train. I just

995
00:44:21,639 --> 00:44:25,599
like seeing them derail. That is a completely different thing.

996
00:44:25,599 --> 00:44:27,159
I'm not trying to get hit by the bride line.

997
00:44:27,199 --> 00:44:27,559
Speaker 2: Okay.

998
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 1: Steve Merril, he is the best at Steve Merrill. As

999
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,280
he mentioned, you guys can head over to the Wager

1000
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,480
Talking YouTube pannel. You guys can check out all of

1001
00:44:34,519 --> 00:44:37,320
his free videos. He does a ton of free content

1002
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:41,639
for you guys. Also, wt dot Buzz, Backslash, s M.

1003
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,000
Steve Merril, keep kicking ass and we'll see you here

1004
00:44:45,079 --> 00:44:46,239
in the next Hey, kell.

1005
00:44:46,199 --> 00:44:48,519
Speaker 7: Let me let me say real quick, A said that

1006
00:44:48,559 --> 00:44:50,400
great website. They set one up for me too for

1007
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,280
the four year. Yes, and it's just as simple. It's

1008
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,719
WT dot buzz slash Steve three six five perfect. And

1009
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,199
I want to point that out because you know I

1010
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,320
keep saying that, like Steve, you give everything away for free. Well,

1011
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,760
I give you almost every major game every week for free.

1012
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,559
But a lot of those are light leans only, right,

1013
00:45:05,559 --> 00:45:07,760
and maybe the tv lians treat them as one percent

1014
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:09,960
of bank roll. If you want my official best bets,

1015
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:12,440
my four percent plays the games. I'm actually using each

1016
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,480
it every day and IFL went three and oh last

1017
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,880
Sunday number one the last year, get it for about

1018
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:18,679
a dollar a play with that one year special. It's

1019
00:45:18,679 --> 00:45:20,320
the biggest discount you'll get all year, and it's through

1020
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:24,199
this weekend only. WT dot buzz slash Steve three sixty five.

1021
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: Awesome, Steve Merril. We'll see you here soon. Keep on

1022
00:45:28,559 --> 00:45:31,000
cashing those tickets. Before bringing Kyle Anthony, I wanted to

1023
00:45:31,039 --> 00:45:35,039
remind you guys Splash sports dot com backslash Kelly and Vegas.

1024
00:45:35,119 --> 00:45:39,079
I've got my College Football Playoff Survivor up right now

1025
00:45:39,199 --> 00:45:42,360
splash sports dot Com Backslash Kelly Vegas two hundred and

1026
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,719
fifty thousand dollars guaranteed one hundred dollars buy in. I've

1027
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,239
got three entries so far. If this isn't even get

1028
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,719
close to filling, I'm gonna have like forty entries and

1029
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:52,639
I'm just gonna mix and match. But I have a

1030
00:45:52,679 --> 00:45:55,039
feeling over the next week or so it's gonna start

1031
00:45:55,079 --> 00:45:57,920
to fill. But hopefully we still get a nice overlay.

1032
00:45:58,039 --> 00:46:02,559
Kyle Anthony coming in you FC and where I get

1033
00:46:02,599 --> 00:46:06,280
to pronounce really tough names. He had one really really

1034
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,440
hard one and two easy ones.

1035
00:46:08,639 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 8: So this is like, this is like your main event here,

1036
00:46:11,559 --> 00:46:13,920
this is this is the last event of twenty twenty five.

1037
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:15,119
Speaker 5: We're gotta give.

1038
00:46:15,039 --> 00:46:19,639
Speaker 8: Kelly the the toughest names possible and see.

1039
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,079
Speaker 5: What we could, just see what we can come through

1040
00:46:21,079 --> 00:46:21,840
with a winner here.

1041
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:26,159
Speaker 8: You know the lines, you know you you're You're definitely

1042
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,719
not the favorite to pronounce these correctly.

1043
00:46:29,079 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 2: For the love of God, it's so bad. It is

1044
00:46:32,039 --> 00:46:33,280
so bad.

1045
00:46:33,519 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 5: I uh I did you can pass? You can still pass?

1046
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,760
Speaker 1: And just all the good news is is he's got

1047
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:44,639
a really easy first name. I'm gonna give it a go, though,

1048
00:46:44,679 --> 00:46:48,280
because John Hoglan, our social media manager, did an entire

1049
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:49,159
video with me one day.

1050
00:46:49,159 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 2: He caught me up guard.

1051
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 1: I had a couple of marks at the West and

1052
00:46:51,519 --> 00:46:54,239
he goes, cal can we film this? And he has

1053
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:59,000
me pronouncing UFC fighters. I'm like, this is my nightmare.

1054
00:46:59,159 --> 00:47:01,840
But we're gonna get into this, Kyle. This is our

1055
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:03,239
last pay per view of the year.

1056
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 5: Correct, well, last pay per view was last week.

1057
00:47:06,079 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 8: This is just the last event of twenty twenty five,

1058
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,039
which we will have five weeks off. That's about the

1059
00:47:12,039 --> 00:47:16,000
closest UFC betters get as an off season here, so uh,

1060
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:16,639
it'll be.

1061
00:47:16,639 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 5: Nice through the through the holiday season. But yeah, this

1062
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:20,159
is the last event of this year.

1063
00:47:20,599 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 1: Okay, Kennedy next, Chuck wu versus all right, all right,

1064
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:32,239
Marcus Bochete huh.

1065
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 5: Get that a in there at the end, But you're good,

1066
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:34,599
all right.

1067
00:47:34,639 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 8: So we have Kenny is a chick wu he is

1068
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,679
minus one twenty five, and the comeback we've got Marcus

1069
00:47:39,679 --> 00:47:42,719
Buceca he is plus one oh eight. Now this is

1070
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,199
a fight here. We've got two guys that are coming

1071
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:49,320
off absolutely terrible performances. You've got Kennedy who went out there,

1072
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,559
got hurt early in the first round, was submitted within

1073
00:47:52,639 --> 00:47:54,119
that first minute of the first round.

1074
00:47:54,119 --> 00:47:55,679
Speaker 5: Then you've got Marcus on their side.

1075
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 8: Who comes in his UFC debut, doesn't look that good,

1076
00:47:58,519 --> 00:48:02,000
couldn't get the takedowns one for leven on takedowns.

1077
00:48:01,519 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 5: And then you've lost the decision.

1078
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,599
Speaker 8: So this is a spot here where really it all

1079
00:48:05,639 --> 00:48:06,920
comes down to the takedowns.

1080
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:07,079
Speaker 5: Here.

1081
00:48:07,079 --> 00:48:09,800
Speaker 8: Now you've got Buceca, who is a world champion jiu

1082
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:10,719
jitsu specialist.

1083
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:12,039
Speaker 5: This guy is elite.

1084
00:48:12,079 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 8: If this fight hits the ground, he's got that high

1085
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,280
level ability to get submissions. Now, my biggest issue here

1086
00:48:17,639 --> 00:48:20,599
on the Butcecha side is the fact that he's very

1087
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,199
one dimensional. You know, he's a guy that you know,

1088
00:48:23,519 --> 00:48:27,559
it's really takedowns or bust, it's really uh, no real

1089
00:48:27,639 --> 00:48:29,920
plan B And that's a big issue here for him.

1090
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,639
Where in twenty twenty five heading to twenty twenty six,

1091
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,519
fighters that are one dimensional do not do well. And

1092
00:48:35,559 --> 00:48:37,480
now you've got Kennedy and is a chick Woo who

1093
00:48:38,199 --> 00:48:40,280
is a more well rounded guy. He's gonna have the

1094
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,840
striking obviously, the higher level grappling is gonna go to Boucecha,

1095
00:48:44,039 --> 00:48:47,679
but the striking is just so favorable to Kennedy in

1096
00:48:47,679 --> 00:48:50,000
this spot here. He's gonna be the more athletic guy,

1097
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:52,079
gonna have the longer reach, He's gonna have a five

1098
00:48:52,119 --> 00:48:54,679
inch each advantage, a three inch heid advantage, and I

1099
00:48:54,679 --> 00:48:57,000
think a lot that he can do with that range.

1100
00:48:57,039 --> 00:48:59,480
But another big issue here is the fact that Butceca

1101
00:49:00,039 --> 00:49:03,960
he has seven career MMA fights, while you've got Kennedy

1102
00:49:04,039 --> 00:49:06,840
with twenty. So you've got the experience level is very wide.

1103
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,000
You obviously, Kennedy's been in the UFC for a very

1104
00:49:09,039 --> 00:49:11,280
long time and had some you know, mixed results, but

1105
00:49:11,559 --> 00:49:14,679
you've got Buceca, who is thirty five years old, just

1106
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,400
made his UFC debut, very one dimensional.

1107
00:49:17,599 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 5: You know.

1108
00:49:18,199 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 8: It's a tough spot to take here, where we do see.

1109
00:49:21,039 --> 00:49:23,320
The part about this I think is interesting is that

1110
00:49:23,559 --> 00:49:26,840
money has consistently poured in on Bucecha in this spot here,

1111
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,280
and I do believe the market's over correcting here a

1112
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,679
little bit because you've got Kennedy who is coming off

1113
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:33,880
a loss where he didn't look good in the first round,

1114
00:49:34,159 --> 00:49:36,159
and also the fact he was just submitted now he's

1115
00:49:36,199 --> 00:49:39,199
facing a you know, submission guy, a grappler who's going

1116
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,199
to be looking for those takedowns, and I feel like

1117
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,199
it's a little bit more of an overcorrection. You've got

1118
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,760
Kennedy who's only been submitted two times in his professional career.

1119
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,679
That was against Paul Craig back in twenty nineteen, who

1120
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:53,800
is an elite level grappler, and then recently against against Walker.

1121
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,280
So I think this is a spot here where Kennedy,

1122
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,199
his eighty percent takedown defense can hold up in certain spots.

1123
00:49:59,199 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 5: Anytime this play on the feat, I.

1124
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,079
Speaker 8: Like him a lot here to land the harder shots,

1125
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,920
possibly look for that knockdown. Plus the cardio doesn't look

1126
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,639
that good for Boucecha, so I think that minus won

1127
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:10,360
twenty five on Kennedy in this spot.

1128
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 5: Here is a is a nice play.

1129
00:50:12,519 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 2: All right?

1130
00:50:13,159 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 1: Right now you've got your hero parlay up, correct or

1131
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:17,920
you're gonna post it soon.

1132
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:19,599
Speaker 8: No, I don't have it up yet, Gonna post it

1133
00:50:19,679 --> 00:50:22,400
after this. And actually, now that you brought it up,

1134
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,320
this play I'm about to talk about is actually going

1135
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,719
to be in the Hero parlay. So I do like

1136
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,360
this from a betting perspective, but I also think it's

1137
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:31,719
a great leg for the hero parlay.

1138
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 1: All right, perfect, these are two easy ones, so I

1139
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:39,519
can't screw it up, right, Gillian Robertson, Amanda Limos, you

1140
00:50:39,679 --> 00:50:41,639
like a nice plus two eighty here.

1141
00:50:42,559 --> 00:50:45,519
Speaker 8: Yes, we've got Jillian Robertson here, she is minus one

1142
00:50:45,519 --> 00:50:46,320
at ninety six.

1143
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:47,199
Speaker 5: I'm the comeback. Here.

1144
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,639
Speaker 8: We've got Amende La Moos, she is plus one sixty.

1145
00:50:49,679 --> 00:50:50,760
Speaker 5: Now you've got Jillian here.

1146
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 8: Who is you know, since she's moved down to one

1147
00:50:53,039 --> 00:50:54,760
hundred and fifteen pounds, she's looked great.

1148
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 5: You know, it's more suited for her frame.

1149
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 8: She's getting more takedowns, she's finding more control time, and

1150
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,679
she's been able to do you know what she's been

1151
00:51:01,679 --> 00:51:03,679
trying to do with her game plan. She's five and

1152
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,480
one in the division since she's got here, So I

1153
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:07,599
think there's a lot of great.

1154
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 5: Things that she has done.

1155
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 8: The big red flags here on the Lomosche side is

1156
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,159
first the fact that she's coming in on short notice. Now,

1157
00:51:14,159 --> 00:51:17,119
a normal camp is going to be you know, roughly

1158
00:51:17,199 --> 00:51:18,880
eight weeks somewhere in there, nine weeks.

1159
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 5: She's coming in on four weeks notice.

1160
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 8: So there is somewhat that But there's definitely going to

1161
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,840
be you know, is she in peak physical condition. The

1162
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,039
other part being the fact that she's thirty eight years old.

1163
00:51:27,079 --> 00:51:29,480
You know, she is a long time bet. She's been

1164
00:51:29,519 --> 00:51:31,719
around a long time. She's done a lot of great things,

1165
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,559
but in general it's just at the end of her career.

1166
00:51:34,599 --> 00:51:37,599
So it's the mix between thirty eight short notice and

1167
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,440
also the fact that she has a tough stylistic matchup here.

1168
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,840
While Jillian is aggressive, she's gonna come forward, She's going

1169
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:45,960
to crash the pocket, look for takedown. She doesn't have

1170
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,760
the greatest striking Lamosh will have the striking advantage, but

1171
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,239
pretty much Jillian moves forward and what she's doing is

1172
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,000
just throwing punches to pretty much just cut distance, get

1173
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:55,760
her hands on you. This is going to be in

1174
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:59,440
the Apex cage, which in the Apex cage thirty percent smaller.

1175
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 5: I do think she can crash the pocket here. I

1176
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:02,199
do think she can.

1177
00:52:02,079 --> 00:52:04,599
Speaker 8: Hold her up against the fence positionally, look to win.

1178
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,559
Find opportunities there. And you know the other part here

1179
00:52:07,599 --> 00:52:09,920
is you've got you know, Jillian who is pretty much

1180
00:52:10,039 --> 00:52:12,239
entering her prime at thirty years old. You've got a

1181
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:14,079
thirty eight year old kind of at the tail end

1182
00:52:14,079 --> 00:52:16,840
of her career. Now where I think this gets interesting

1183
00:52:17,079 --> 00:52:19,320
is the fact that you know, Leamoche, she does have

1184
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,639
issues there. But what she does have is strength, physicality.

1185
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,599
She's got a pretty good takedown defense. She can scramble

1186
00:52:25,639 --> 00:52:28,360
when she's able to, you know, obviously not get flattened

1187
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,360
out on the ground. She's finding ways to get back

1188
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,679
to her feet. And Jillian doesn't have the greatest wrestling.

1189
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:35,679
You know her wrestling, you know, she has a forty

1190
00:52:35,679 --> 00:52:38,679
percent takedown success rate, not the greatest here, and you

1191
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,880
even so recently for Lemoche was that against tatianas Wars,

1192
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,280
who is an elite level wrestler. She only was three

1193
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,280
for twelve on takedowns, so she stuffed a lot of

1194
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:50,119
those takedowns. So for me in this spot, as you're saying, Kelly,

1195
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,840
the plus two eighty in here for Jillian two win

1196
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,360
by points, I think there's gonna be scrappy moments.

1197
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 5: I think there's gonna be close moments.

1198
00:52:57,960 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 8: I do think that you have Gillian who will win

1199
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,719
positionally Banks some rounds, but I don't see the finished

1200
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,480
materializing here. I do think that Jillian gets the job

1201
00:53:05,559 --> 00:53:08,400
done Banks enough rounds and gets a scorecard. So I

1202
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:10,199
do like this plus two to eighty number here to

1203
00:53:10,199 --> 00:53:11,159
get the job done.

1204
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:14,119
Speaker 1: All right, guys, if you do have a question regarding

1205
00:53:14,119 --> 00:53:16,280
this UFC card for Kyle, drop it in the chat.

1206
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,639
Speaker 2: We got a few minutes left. I know everybody's mad.

1207
00:53:19,079 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 1: Then at college basketball I put it in there too.

1208
00:53:22,159 --> 00:53:24,840
Comment Is this a little hostile this morning? I should

1209
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:25,920
have gotten more coffee?

1210
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:26,559
Speaker 7: Kyle.

1211
00:53:26,679 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 1: Let every know when your hero parlay is going to

1212
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:30,639
be posted and where they can find it.

1213
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,760
Speaker 8: Yeah, so you can check it out on my Twitter

1214
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,719
at Kylie Anthy UFC. I'm going to be posted up shortly.

1215
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,719
We've done well on these overall. We're not gonna be

1216
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,320
hitting these every weekend, so everybody relaxed, but we're gonna

1217
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:43,920
be able to hit a good amount of them.

1218
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 1: Do you recommend you know how I do my three

1219
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:50,239
team moneyline parlay? So, for example, I bet these three

1220
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:51,960
teams against the spread. I sprinkle a little bit on

1221
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:53,599
the money line and into the parlay is just like

1222
00:53:53,679 --> 00:53:56,840
the icing on the cake. Do you recommend everybody betting

1223
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:57,840
me straight as well?

1224
00:53:58,440 --> 00:53:59,039
Speaker 5: I think so.

1225
00:53:59,159 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 8: I mean for the most I do, but for the

1226
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,199
most part I don't try to push that narrative to

1227
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:05,159
the hero parlay.

1228
00:54:05,199 --> 00:54:07,039
Speaker 5: For the most part, I'm saying, hey, these are the

1229
00:54:07,079 --> 00:54:07,960
ones that I do like.

1230
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 8: It's a more of a fun bet, one that we

1231
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,320
have found some good odds with and we're looking to

1232
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,400
piece three legs together to find opportunity to cash.

1233
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:17,079
Speaker 5: So yes, I do like these.

1234
00:54:17,119 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 8: And as I just said, you know, Gillian Robertson at

1235
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,280
plus two eighty, that's a spot I like, just straight up.

1236
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,320
Speaker 5: But yet it's a good leg for the hero parlay, okay,

1237
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:24,679
And so.

1238
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 2: For a novice UFC better like me, where would I

1239
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:28,719
find that?

1240
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 4: Right?

1241
00:54:29,079 --> 00:54:32,280
Speaker 1: So you go onto the apps and sometimes there's just

1242
00:54:32,559 --> 00:54:34,840
so many things to bet, right.

1243
00:54:34,639 --> 00:54:37,119
Speaker 8: Well, this is going to be method of victory, so

1244
00:54:37,159 --> 00:54:39,320
you got to look for method of victory there, or

1245
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,840
you look for the double chance. Double chance is basically

1246
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,880
it can be points submission, it could be knocked out submission,

1247
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:47,519
it can be knockout points. So you do have a

1248
00:54:47,559 --> 00:54:49,360
way to kind of play with that a little bit here.

1249
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,159
But for the most part, if you're looking at method

1250
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,079
of victory one particular way, it's going to be under

1251
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:56,840
a method of victory, and then you have the other

1252
00:54:57,079 --> 00:54:59,000
you know, other ways that you're gonna be able to play.

1253
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:02,519
Speaker 1: That sweet Kyle, you're the best. Appreciate you hanging out

1254
00:55:02,519 --> 00:55:04,760
with us every single Saturday. When are we gonna see

1255
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,079
you again? You have five next five weeks off.

1256
00:55:07,159 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 8: So next five these I'm heading to Mexico for a week.

1257
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,679
I'm gonna enjoy some time off a little bit, but

1258
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:13,440
when I come back. The great part about it is

1259
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:16,760
that when we come back, there are back to back

1260
00:55:17,199 --> 00:55:20,159
pay per views because now ESPN is gonna be done,

1261
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:22,000
they're now having paramount paramount.

1262
00:55:22,039 --> 00:55:23,039
Speaker 5: I guess they've set up.

1263
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,199
Speaker 8: Two huge cards to start the year, which is gonna

1264
00:55:25,199 --> 00:55:27,599
be the last two weeks of January. So a lot

1265
00:55:27,599 --> 00:55:29,760
of work to do leading up to that, but definitely

1266
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:31,320
a great start to twenty twenty six.

1267
00:55:31,599 --> 00:55:34,679
Speaker 1: Awesome you enjoy your time in Mexico. I'm very jealous.

1268
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,280
I need to work on my tan. It's already gone

1269
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,119
from Maruba. Thank you, Kyle at Kyle Anthony UFC. If

1270
00:55:40,119 --> 00:55:43,119
you guys are looking for that hero parlay, and thank

1271
00:55:43,159 --> 00:55:46,679
you to all of you guys, especially are Wager Talk

1272
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:51,239
insiders WT dot Buzz Backslash insiders to join you guys

1273
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,679
are gonna get early access to all things wager talk.

1274
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:56,280
Speaker 2: Every once in a while, we're gonna give you some

1275
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:57,800
access to v our steam room.

1276
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,519
Speaker 1: You're gonna get Marco's delhi Earli, you're gonna bet on

1277
00:56:00,559 --> 00:56:03,159
it early two dollars of ninety nine cents a month,

1278
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:07,079
WT dot Buzz, Backslash Insiders, and again, guys, if you're

1279
00:56:07,119 --> 00:56:11,840
looking for a college football playoff contest, Splash sports dot com,

1280
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:15,760
Backslash Kelly in Vegas, I've got a college football playoff survivor.

1281
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,800
Speaker 2: I know the comment section was upset that.

1282
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:19,559
Speaker 1: I put one hundred dollars price tag on it, because

1283
00:56:19,599 --> 00:56:21,480
I wanted two hundred fifty thousand dollars guaranteed.

1284
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 2: That's what I wanted, so they gave me what I wanted.

1285
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:24,320
But don't worry.

1286
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,599
Speaker 1: There are plenty of other contests over on splash to

1287
00:56:27,679 --> 00:56:31,079
fit all of your pricing needs, from five bucks to

1288
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:33,840
five thousand bucks. I wish I was kidding. Some of

1289
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:36,679
them are a little too pricey for me. That being said,

1290
00:56:36,679 --> 00:56:39,079
I hope you guys have a wonderful Saturday. As VR

1291
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:42,400
likes to say, hope you cash them, don't trash them

1292
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:47,440
back here tomorrow. Aerol Epscene, John Murray, VR and Marco DiAngelo,