Speaker 1: What's up, everybody. Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we always start to show by
being transparent. And yesterday we had a winning day, or
at least I had a winning day. I bet the
under and the Aces game and want and O day
for myself. So happy with that, VENO, good to be
back with you. Hopefully you got the window, hopefully stood
up straight and uh get how did you do for
the rest of the day.
Speaker 2: Well, I kind of kicked myself for not playing Connecticut,
but you know, we found out a little late.
Speaker 1: About poor minute.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's just crazy. I was ready to
pull the trigger early in the day ski and then
I got the alert that said page was that shoot around.
So I stopped my write up mid stream and didn't
go ahead and release that Connecticut game. But they did
win that one. But we both I think we you know,
like you said, we talked come out here, and after
what we talked about yesterday, I did stand up straight,
did release the under in Las Vegas. Atlanta came through
for US typical playoff style game. So we got paid yesterday.
We'll look to get paid again today.
Speaker 1: Let's do it. We have I know we have three
in the WNBA. We'll see if we want to talk
a little bit of college football today. I do have
strong opinions about the weekend games. Maybe can touch on tomorrow.
But shout out to the chat rooms ZB Miami reminding
everybody to hit the light button on the way in
appreciate that case in the building. Be man. Good to
see some of the usual suspects. And let's get to it.
We'll go in rotation order, or we'll start with six
oh one, six oh two mystics. Liberty opened up minus
twelve and a half. Looks like twelve pretty much everywhere.
Total open one sixty three. It looks like one sixty
two and a half. And as far as in injury report,
I see J. C. Sheldon out for Washington for the Liberty,
Natasha Cloud is out Sovly he's out. Sabrina is still
listed here. She is truly questionable man Veno for me,
I mean, the Liberty haven't been playing that good and
especially if you don't know if Sabrina is gonna play,
I mean, even if I know she was in, the
Liberty haven't been playing good enough for me to lay
this anymore. I got caught with them the other day,
and I just really want no parts. I think they
have to show us some consistency before we start to
expect them to win by, you know, clear double digits.
So I would say Mystics in this situation, both teams
are well rested. Mystics are a little bit more rested
with three days and they haven't played since earlier in
the season. But I think twelve is a little bit
too much. What do you think you're Vino.
Speaker 2: Well, I really wanted to get to the Liberty team
total here' ski. My thought process was maybe you were
just one game ahead of yourself the other day when
they played Connecticut, because I just feel like, you know,
they scored eighty one in that game. Everybody was back.
The total the asking price here was going to be
about eighty eight and a half against Washington. Thought to myself,
second game with everybody back in, I think Harrison's even
back in tonight off of the concussion protocol, so you
get easy back. I thought getting to eighty nine would
be a play of mine. And then again, just like
I talked about earlier, you get the alert late this
morning that Sabrina is now this toe injury may keep
her out of the game, so I stopped in my
tracks here. You know, as possible they could still get
to that price, but I don't know that I want
to play it that way anymore. I'm with you, I
don't want to lay the number because the defense still
you know, they only be Connecticut by two the other night,
as you mentioned that, the defense still, even with Breonna Stewart,
didn't look that great. So there's potential for Washington here.
My hesitation with Washington overall is that they are truly
out of it now. I know we joked a little
bit a couple of weeks ago or the mystics tanking.
Then they come up with a couple of big wins,
then they go right back and blow back to back
games against Connecticut. Then I think they played a fairly
solid game last time out. But now they're finished at
sixteen and twenty two. There's really not enough time for them.
I know they're not mathematically eliminated, but for all intended purposes,
they're eliminated here from a playoff spot. So I don't
know what we're going to get out of Washington at
this point in time. Could be a lot of experimentation.
Who knows what the head coach's thoughts are as far
as minutes are concerned, knowing that they're out of it.
So I don't really like either side. Again, if I
knew Yenescu was in the game, I would play over
eighty eight and a half thinking that they're going to
get to ninety. It's a team predicated mostly on offense.
They've got so many good offensive players. But you know,
we may not know till four minutes before game time again,
so who knows, might have to wait it out. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Uh, it's tough dealing with the injury report. But I mean,
they are playing more games this season, so I'll try
not to get on them too much. But it's making
it tough on the betters. I'll say that for sure.
We'll move it over to the next game. Nobody really
has a strong opinion in the chat for this game either.
Next game we have Seattle and Minnesota. It opened up
Minnesota minus seven and a half. It's all the way
up to nine or nine and a half. Total opened
up one sixty three and a half, and I see
it as as one sixty five. We'll take a look
at the injuries for Seattle. I don't see anybody for
Minnesota only griffing out feedback in the lineup man, she
looked good. It's really hard to put your money against
the Links. I haven't had success doing that a lot
this season, I'll tell you that, so I try to
stay away from you know, even been thinking about betting
on the other side. But every game the Links are
the better team, they're at home, they're healthy. I mean,
why shouldn't we take the Links here? Rob?
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if I can. Well, you
know what's been okay to try and do is to
go against them first half. They haven't been a great
first half team. And Seattle was out.
Speaker 1: Of the Quarder team too, by the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah they make the second half adjustments, boy, because there's
been games where they were down by sizeable amounts at
halftime and they come back and win big. It just
doesn't matter. And I know we questioned last time, you know,
what do they have left to play for? At thirty
and seven running away with this thing, they're going to
be the number one seed. Why risk anything at this
point in time? But I've said before they're so professional
that team, like they just come out and you know
what you're going to get from them. Each and every time,
lineup is lineup is full again. And I remember saying
to you the other day that I saw Courtney Williams
come out and say, you know, we were a problem,
but with feedback, we're a real problem now. And it's
the truth. I just don't know. To me, Seattle's the
more motivated team here. Again, it's been a long road trip.
We talked about it the other day, and they got
beat by twenty by Indiana. But they're in a spot
where they've got to have a win here. They're clinging
to that eight spot ahead of the Sparks. I think
they'll put up a fight. Ski They've done it before
against Minnesota. I mean there's I think there was an
instance where they got absolutely pounded, but I do think
there were a couple instances where they played this team
pretty tough. So I'd be hesitant to lay nine points
with Minnesota, but that doesn't mean i'd rush to the
window with Seattle either. I looked at the total at
one sixty four, and especially I looked at the Seattle
team total, thinking that maybe Minnesota's defense could keep them
under that number. But seventy seven and a half is
a low numbers so no play here for me on
either side. I could see it going either way. For
those who got to the window quickly and played Minnesota,
I think you're in better shape. Seven and a half
is a lot better than laying nine here in my estimation.
I see I'm looking now as we talk, sketchy at
nine and a half out there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, some good points made by you. Also in the chat,
they're liking it. Jeff b says, took Seattle first half.
I hope they bounce back strong early. That's not a
bad look after getting beat by twenty. And what you
said about Minnesota is starting slow a little bit there.
Brian's also thinking about it. The problem I have with
Seattle is b Man kind of mentions it here Seattle
eighth row game in ten days, this is their fifth
straight road game, and then two people in the chat
mentioning it. Be Man's one says he needs to put
pull away for MVP and two games for Links to
clinch the number one seed. Casey says, the way the
Aces are playing, she feels like they're playing for fee MVP.
I agree, Mark says Seattle first half as well, Minnesota
third quarter. So everybody's agreeing pretty much with the game
script for this one. I mean, Seattle first half does
sound appealing, But like I said, then I think about
who they're playing on the other side, and I just
don't want to put my money down anymore. That's how
it makes me feel. So I'm not mad at anybody,
but this is a tough game for me. What about
the total, I mean, it did go up from one
sixty three and a half to one sixty five. I'm
gonna glance at what the storm we've been doing. I
know they've been playing faster. They're still the number one
paced team in the league. Last five games they are in,
they are that the number four defensive verded team in the
same span. I mean, if they want to play up
tempo with the Lynx, the Lynks will score on any defense.
I could. I could understand the movement with the over
any thust there before we move over.
Speaker 2: Probably know they've got a couple of situations here with
Seattle Ski. I know we talked a little bit about
Malonga coming off the bench. She's been terrific, but she
had an off game her last game. And one more
problematic thing for Seattle is ever since they moved Erica
Wheeler back to the bench. She just hasn't been the
same offensive player two for ten the other night. I
don't know if she's been thrown out of rhythm by
not getting the start and the minutes that come with it.
She's getting twenty plus still, but you know, since they
acquired Britney Sykes, it hasn't been the same for her.
So you would think you'd get a couple of bounce
back performances off the bench here for Seattle, which makes
seventy seven and a half look a shade low for
their team total, considering the fact that Minnesota's allowed more
than that and four of their last five. But again,
it's just not enough to convince me to, as we
say on the show, stand up straight with a play
on that one.
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, I'll I'm moving on over to
the next game, and that is gonna look like Chicago
Sky Phoenix Mercury opened up minus twelve and a half
for Phoenix, looks like minus twelve and a half still
right now. Total open one sixty three and that looks
like one sixty four and a half as far as
an injury report is concerned. Nobody on there for either
team here Raveno, the Sky did play that last game,
or let's see, I think they're both my bad here.
The Sky they did cover versus ass and they have
the rest advantage in this game. They last played on
the twenty fifth, so two day's rest for them compared
to one for the Mercury. I'll say like this, Rov,
you know, the Sky have been a pretty straightforward team
this year. When Andel Rees and Aero Atkins are playing,
they look a lot better. When they're not playing, they
look absolutely terrible. When one of them is playing, they
look uh, they look okay. I guess they have both
of them in the lineup today. Like I mentioned, the
injury report is clean. Phoenix is the better team, clear
as day. But Phoenix has been so inconsistent, they've been
so so iffy. They also need uh how do I say?
They also need a win for the standings though, So
this game is important to win. Do you think it
is important enough to win by twelve and a half.
Speaker 2: It's always the question, Red Ski. We're betting against numbers here.
It's easy for us to say Phoenix should win the game.
Will they win by twelve and a half? And I
think to your point about the Sky, They're a way
better offensive team when Angel Reese is on the floor,
and it generally it's not It hasn't been because of
her shooting or scoring, but it's been because their guards
just don't make plays the way she makes plays as
the point forward. Since they made that switch, when she's
healthy in playing that position, they score better. I looked
at over in this game because the Chicago defense has
just been horrendous all season a long, no matter who's
involved on the floor, and Phoenix has that ability to score.
But one thing I'm noticing about Phoenix as the season
grinds down here to the end, is that, you know what,
and it's an easy philosophy, It's kind of easy to
say about any team, but I think with Phoenix it
holds really true. When they make threes, they score big.
When they don't make threes, they don't score so big.
I think that goes back to your point about inconsistency
with this team, and I just notice it in recording
these scores each and every night with them when their
three point shooters are on, I think the other night,
oh goodness, gracious, they had a five for seven out
of Sammy wickham uh And when she's going, well, it's
even better, but they just don't always shoot it that way.
Chicago gives it up from three, so you would think
that Phoenix would be in a good spot here to
make those shots. I think over is the way I
would look in this game. I wouldn't trust Phoenix to
cover the number. They played four their last five on
the road. It wasn't a true full five game road trip,
but still it's been a little sporadic travel wise for them.
So I think Chicago can score. I think Phoenix can score.
I'd probably look over here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't really talk you off of that. Is
he be Miami mentioned Cardoso size will be a problem
in the paint. Yeah, I mean Skuys should be able
to rebound. We'll see if they're able to get some
of those second chance points. But I could see both
teams putting up some points here. And it's when it
gets you over to one sixty four and a half,
you know, I think we have a few minutes still
left here. Let's see if we can mark like the sky
first half. Let's see if we can look at a
little bit of football. I know these aren't the top
top games today, but they're football, and we haven't. We've
been starved for football for a while. So let's see
if we can look at a little something here before
we get out of here. One game I know you
had your eye on is East Carolina and NC State.
It it opened up minus twelve and a half and
looks like pretty much minus fourteen right now. And there's
a huge move on the total opened up fifty six
and a half. I'm seeing sixty two at I'm seeing
sixty two at like five shops, So I'll say sixty
two is a prevailing number right now. I mean, I
know you're an over guy, Robn know about a six
point five and a half. Six point move on the
total is how you're looking to play this one?
Speaker 2: You know, three weeks ago ski on five dollars Tuesday.
This was my first college play that I released the
clients and the number was fifty eight and a half
at the time, and I took it. I took the
play down after two days. I bet it at fifty
eight and a half because I anticipated this kind of move.
I took the play down because I didn't want people
betting that percentage on this play when it moved here,
I could recommend it as a free play. I did
so in a wager Talk video. But I'll tell you
why these teams played in the bowl game last year,
very last year. First of all, they're pretty much I
wouldn't say the NC State considers ECU arrival, but ECU,
like the little Brother, loves to play against these in
state Power five teams North Carolina, North Carolina State, ETCA.
They come to play. They won that Military Bowl twenty
six twenty one, about eight months ago. Scored with a
minute and a half left in that game.
Speaker 1: Ski.
Speaker 2: There were so many yards it was crazy. The score
is not intive of how much offense there was in
that game. First two drives of the game, NC State
gained one hundred and twenty two yards on two drives
and came away with nothing zero points, which is you
don't expect that to happen again. Their next four possessions
they scored twenty one points.
Speaker 1: It was pretty easy.
Speaker 2: ECU. For what it's worth, they had five drives of
over seventy four yards in that game. East Carolina is
a team that's going to go super fast. They made
the coaching change last year midstream and became one of
the fastest offenses in the nation and also started winning games.
They're going to do the same thing here tonight. And
I think both of these teams, again, a lot of
the personnel offensively returns for both, So I think you'll
get the same type of offensive performance out of each year.
You may get a different winner in the game, but
I think that what they'll do here is turn those
yards into points. So when I saw they scored forty
seven in the bowl game and had a bunch of
mishaps that prevented them from scoring like sixty five in
that game, and then this total was fifty eight and
a half, I played it like I said, sixty two.
You have to downgrade the play because you're crossing a
bunch of key numbers. Fifty nine is key, sixty one
is key. Now you know thirty eight twenty four is
sixty two. You could land right on it. But I
still think there's enough possibility to just put a little
bit on here and use it as a free play.
ECU n C State over the sixty two if you
can find I don't know, you're probably looking right now.
I thought at one point yesterday it might have gone
down to sixty one and a half, and you can
see one right now as I look at the on screen,
I can see one. If you shop hard enough, maybe
you can find it and give yourself sixty two as
a winner.
Speaker 1: Our good stuffrov you know. I'm uh, you know, I'll
take the blame for not going any further in football
today because I have something I have to do, so
I'm gonna go ahead and set it down at after
that game right there. But some good stuff from you.
If you guys want to hear more about college football,
maybe let us know in the comments or you know,
we'll get we'll we'll get into more anyway tomorrow. But
hit the logginning for us. That does go a long way.
We'll appreciate it, all right. You know it's about that time.
I don't have any graphics to put up, but I
will ask you if there's anything you would like to promote,
and also if you have a best bet for the show.
We love to hear it. If you don't have one,
it's okay.
Speaker 2: Yeah, guys. Season packages and football are up and available
right now wager talk dot com. You can find my
college football NFL WT dot Buzz, slash RB, or just
visit wager talk dot com again. NFL and college football
plays up and available right now. Let's zip right over
to the WNBA SKI here for best bet, and I'm
gonna play. So I will say I haven't played yet,
but I will play the Phoenix game over the total
one sixty four and a half. I mean, we talked
about it. There's plenty of reasons why you would like
that play. And I'll also mention something that we didn't mention.
I mean, as an MVP, talk about Collier and Asia
Wilson obviously, but boyle boy, what Alyssa Thomas has done
the last two weeks is amazing. Triple doubles like there
absolutely nothing for her. She's been the backbone of the team.
I think they score here. Chicago's defense hasn't been great,
and I do think with the Sky having a full lineup,
Phoenix can get a little lackadaisical on defense themselves. So
give me over one sixty four and a half his
best bet for the show.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff from mister Raveno, and uh, I
be honest, I've only made one bet today and I
can't give it out because it's my five percent play.
So I'm gonna just rock with Raveno. Said, I think
that was a good play right there. Appreciate Youveno. I'm
in Companese games with us. Everybody in the chat, we
appreciate you all as well. We'll be back tomorrow and
there is there's a lot to talk about tomorrow. So
if you want to hear about a little bit of WNBA,
maybe a little bit of football, come join us and
we'll see all of you guys then