WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:03.600 I wanted to try to build something useful, but I 2 00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:06.400 didn't think I would build anything particularly great. You've said, 3 00:00:06.440 --> 00:00:10.160 probabilistically it seemed unlikely, but I wouldn't to at least try. 4 00:00:11.080 --> 00:00:13.320 So you're talking to a room full of people who 5 00:00:13.400 --> 00:00:16.920 are all technical engineers, often some of the most eminent 6 00:00:17.359 --> 00:00:19.320 AI researchers coming up in the game. 7 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:24.719 Okay, I I think we should. 8 00:00:24.760 --> 00:00:27.480 I think I like the term engineer better than researcher. 9 00:00:27.839 --> 00:00:32.880 I suppose if there's some fundamental algorithmic breakthrough, it's a 10 00:00:32.920 --> 00:00:34.479 research Otherwise it's engineering. 11 00:00:35.079 --> 00:00:37.840 Maybe let's start way back when you were This is 12 00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:40.920 a room full of eighteen to twenty five year olds. 13 00:00:41.119 --> 00:00:44.880 Excuse younger, because the founder set is younger and younger. 14 00:00:45.399 --> 00:00:48.520 Can you put yourself back into their shoes? When you 15 00:00:49.119 --> 00:00:53.119 were eighteen nineteen learning to code, even coming up with 16 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:56.200 a first idea for ZIP too, What was that like 17 00:00:56.240 --> 00:00:56.560 for you? 18 00:00:56.759 --> 00:00:56.960 Yeah? 19 00:00:57.000 --> 00:01:00.799 Back in ninety five, I was basically choice of either 20 00:01:00.920 --> 00:01:05.159 do Grass studies PhD Stanford and material science actually working 21 00:01:05.200 --> 00:01:08.599 on ultra capacities for potential use of electric vehicles, essentially 22 00:01:08.599 --> 00:01:11.519 trying to solve the range problem for electric vehicles, or 23 00:01:12.480 --> 00:01:14.640 try to do something in this thing that most people 24 00:01:14.640 --> 00:01:17.159 have never heard of, called the Internet. And I talked 25 00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:20.040 to my professor, was Bill Nicks in the material science problement, 26 00:01:20.120 --> 00:01:22.840 and I said, can I defer for a quarter because 27 00:01:23.359 --> 00:01:25.959 this will probably fail and then I'll need to come 28 00:01:25.959 --> 00:01:26.640 back to college. 29 00:01:26.840 --> 00:01:28.680 And then he said, this is probably the last conversation 30 00:01:28.719 --> 00:01:30.400 we'll have, and he was right. 31 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:32.359 But I thought things would most likely fail, not that 32 00:01:32.359 --> 00:01:35.200 they would most likely succeed. And then in ninety five 33 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:38.480 I wrote, basically, I think the first or close to 34 00:01:38.519 --> 00:01:42.719 the first maps directions, Internet, white pages and yellow pages 35 00:01:42.719 --> 00:01:45.319 on the Internet. I just wrote that personally, and I 36 00:01:45.319 --> 00:01:47.000 didn't even use a website. I just read the port 37 00:01:47.040 --> 00:01:51.120 directly because I couldn't afford and I could afford a 38 00:01:51.120 --> 00:01:56.840 t one. The original office was on Firman Avenue in Palelto. 39 00:01:57.159 --> 00:02:00.680 There was like an ISP on the floor below. I 40 00:02:00.840 --> 00:02:03.200 rolled a hole through the floor and just ran a 41 00:02:03.280 --> 00:02:07.040 land cable directly to the ISP, and my brother joined 42 00:02:07.040 --> 00:02:09.680 me and another co founder of Great Courrier who passed away, 43 00:02:09.879 --> 00:02:12.120 and at the time we couldn't even afford a place 44 00:02:12.159 --> 00:02:14.199 to stay, so we just The office was five hundred 45 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:15.840 bucks months, so we just left in the office and 46 00:02:15.879 --> 00:02:19.240 then shouted the YMCA on page mill and al communo 47 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:21.759 and yeah, and I guess we ended up doing a 48 00:02:21.800 --> 00:02:24.039 little bit of a useful company is up to. 49 00:02:24.039 --> 00:02:26.599 In the beginning, and I did build a lot of 50 00:02:26.879 --> 00:02:28.639 really really good. 51 00:02:28.439 --> 00:02:33.879 Software technology, but were somewhat captured by the legacy media 52 00:02:33.919 --> 00:02:36.719 companies and that night rout or New York Times, the 53 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:41.879 host whatnot were investors and customers and also on the board, 54 00:02:42.360 --> 00:02:44.599 so they kept wanting to use software in ways that 55 00:02:44.639 --> 00:02:47.439 made no sense. So I wanted to go direct to 56 00:02:47.439 --> 00:02:50.039 consumers anyway, as long story, dwelling too much use up 57 00:02:50.080 --> 00:02:52.479 too But I really just wanted to do something useful 58 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:55.000 on the Internet because I have two choices. 59 00:02:55.120 --> 00:02:57.919 Do I PhD and watch people build the internet or 60 00:02:59.159 --> 00:02:59.840 help build. 61 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:01.879 The internet in some small way. And I was like, 62 00:03:01.919 --> 00:03:03.479 I guess I can always try and fail and then 63 00:03:03.560 --> 00:03:06.439 go back to grad studies. And anyway, that ended up 64 00:03:06.479 --> 00:03:09.960 being like reasonably successful. Sold for like three hundre million dollars, 65 00:03:09.960 --> 00:03:12.199 which is a lot at the time these days, that's 66 00:03:12.280 --> 00:03:14.400 I think the minimum impulse, but for an AI startup 67 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:15.560 is like a billion dollars. 68 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:16.199 It's like. 69 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:21.520 There's so many freaking unicorns. It's like heard of unicorns 70 00:03:21.520 --> 00:03:23.439 at this point was a billion dollar situation. 71 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:27.039 There's been inflation since, so quite a bit more money. 72 00:03:27.080 --> 00:03:31.479 Oually Yeah, like you could probably buy a voter burger 73 00:03:31.479 --> 00:03:33.680 for a nickel. Not quite, but yeah, there has been 74 00:03:33.680 --> 00:03:36.080 a lot of inflation. But at the high level in 75 00:03:36.120 --> 00:03:40.120 AI is pretty intense. As you've seen companies that are 76 00:03:40.840 --> 00:03:43.960 I don't know, less than a year old getting sometimes 77 00:03:44.080 --> 00:03:47.800 a billion dollar, multi billion dollar valuations, which I guess 78 00:03:47.919 --> 00:03:50.639 could pan out and probably will pan out in some cases, 79 00:03:50.879 --> 00:03:53.639 but it is I ordering to see some of these valuations. 80 00:03:54.520 --> 00:03:55.199 Yeah, what do you. 81 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:59.080 Think, I'm pretty bullish. I'm pretty bullish, honestly. 82 00:03:59.240 --> 00:04:00.919 So I think the people in this room are going 83 00:04:01.000 --> 00:04:03.879 to create a lot of the value that a billion 84 00:04:03.919 --> 00:04:06.639 people in the world should be using this stuff, and 85 00:04:06.800 --> 00:04:09.800 we're not even we're scratching the surface of it. I 86 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:13.039 love the Internet story in that, even back then, you 87 00:04:13.280 --> 00:04:15.919 are a lot like the people in this room back then, 88 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:20.399 in that you know, the heads of all the CEOs 89 00:04:20.399 --> 00:04:23.160 of all the legacy media companies look to you as 90 00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:26.000 the person who understood the Internet, and a lot of 91 00:04:26.040 --> 00:04:28.920 the world, the corporate world, like the world out large, 92 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:31.720 that does not understand what's happening with AI. They're going 93 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:34.399 to look to the people in this room for exactly that. 94 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:36.279 It sounds like, what are some of the tangible lessons. 95 00:04:36.319 --> 00:04:38.360 It sounds like one of them is don't give up 96 00:04:38.360 --> 00:04:41.639 board control or be careful about have a really good lawyer. 97 00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:44.800 Well, I guess with first my first thought of the 98 00:04:44.839 --> 00:04:48.240 big really the mistake was having too much shareholder and 99 00:04:48.279 --> 00:04:53.720 board control from legacy media companies who then necessarily see 100 00:04:53.720 --> 00:04:58.079 things through the lens of legacy media, and that they'll 101 00:04:58.079 --> 00:05:00.600 make you do things that seems sense full to them 102 00:05:00.639 --> 00:05:03.360 but aren't really doesn't make sense with the new technology. 103 00:05:03.800 --> 00:05:06.079 I know I should point out that I that I 104 00:05:06.439 --> 00:05:09.480 didn't actually first intend to start a company. I try 105 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:12.000 to get a job at Netscape. I said my resume 106 00:05:12.160 --> 00:05:15.199 to Netscape, and Mark Hendrison knows about this, but I 107 00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:18.000 don't think he gave us my resume, and then nobody responded. 108 00:05:18.399 --> 00:05:20.000 And then I tried hanging out in the lobby of 109 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:22.600 Netscape see if I can like bump into someone, but 110 00:05:22.639 --> 00:05:24.519 I was like too shy to talk to anyone. 111 00:05:24.600 --> 00:05:25.959 So I'm like, man, this is ridiculous. 112 00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:28.040 So I'll just write sof for myself and see how 113 00:05:28.079 --> 00:05:29.680 it goes so it wasn't actually from the stand point, 114 00:05:29.720 --> 00:05:31.000 if I want to start a company, I just want 115 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:34.120 to be part of building the Internet in some way. 116 00:05:34.399 --> 00:05:36.680 And since I couldn't get a job at an ARAT company, 117 00:05:36.720 --> 00:05:40.720 I had to start an internet company anyway. They from 118 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:44.240 an AI will so profoundly change the future. 119 00:05:45.399 --> 00:05:47.639 It's difficult to fathom how much. 120 00:05:48.000 --> 00:05:54.399 But at the economy is, assuming we don't things don't 121 00:05:54.399 --> 00:05:57.759 go awry, and like AI doesn't kill us so well 122 00:05:57.839 --> 00:06:03.560 and itself, then you'll see ultimately an economy. 123 00:06:03.040 --> 00:06:03.680 That is. 124 00:06:05.079 --> 00:06:07.639 Not ten times more than the current economy. Ultimately, if 125 00:06:07.680 --> 00:06:13.279 we become say or whatever, our future machine descendants or 126 00:06:13.360 --> 00:06:17.839 but mostly machine descendants become like a chief scale to 127 00:06:18.079 --> 00:06:23.759 civilization or beyond, we're talking about an economy that is 128 00:06:24.600 --> 00:06:28.839 thousands of times, maybe millions of times bigger than the 129 00:06:28.879 --> 00:06:32.040 economy today. Yeah, I did feel a bit like when 130 00:06:32.079 --> 00:06:33.800 I was in VC taking a lot of flag from 131 00:06:33.800 --> 00:06:36.439 getting rid of waist and fraud, which is an interesting 132 00:06:36.480 --> 00:06:38.480 side quest as side quests go. 133 00:06:39.199 --> 00:06:41.240 But I've got to get back to the main quest. 134 00:06:41.759 --> 00:06:43.519 Yeah, I got to get back to the main quest here, 135 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:45.319 So back to the main quest. 136 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:48.319 But I did feel a little bit like this. It's 137 00:06:48.360 --> 00:06:50.800 like fixing the government. It's kind of just say, the 138 00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.759 beach is dirty and there's some needles and PCs and 139 00:06:53.959 --> 00:06:55.720 like trash, and you want to clean up the beach. 140 00:06:56.279 --> 00:06:59.480 But then there's also this like thousand foot wool of water, 141 00:06:59.600 --> 00:07:03.360 which is tsunami of AI. And how much does cleaning 142 00:07:03.360 --> 00:07:05.360 the beach really matter if you go to a thousand 143 00:07:05.399 --> 00:07:06.800 foot tsunami about to hit. 144 00:07:07.839 --> 00:07:08.360 Not that much. 145 00:07:10.000 --> 00:07:12.199 Well, we're glad you're back on the main quest. It's 146 00:07:12.360 --> 00:07:13.040 very important. 147 00:07:13.240 --> 00:07:15.680 Yeah, back to the may quest building technology, which is 148 00:07:15.759 --> 00:07:18.319 what I like doing. It's just so much noise like this. 149 00:07:18.319 --> 00:07:21.000 The single noise ratio in politics is terrible. 150 00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:23.040 I live in San Francisco, so you don't need to 151 00:07:23.079 --> 00:07:23.879 tell me twice. 152 00:07:24.279 --> 00:07:26.639 Yeah, DC's I guess it's all politics in DC. 153 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:32.120 But the if you're trying to build a rocket or cars, 154 00:07:32.240 --> 00:07:35.439 or you're trying to have software that compiles and runs reliably, 155 00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:38.759 then you have to be maximally true seeking or your 156 00:07:38.839 --> 00:07:42.439 software or your hardware won't work like you can't fool 157 00:07:42.879 --> 00:07:43.680 like mathem. 158 00:07:43.399 --> 00:07:45.079 Physics are rigorous judges. 159 00:07:45.560 --> 00:07:47.800 So I'm used to being in a maximally true seeking 160 00:07:48.240 --> 00:07:50.399 environment and that's definitely not politics. 161 00:07:50.800 --> 00:07:53.360 So I'm good. Glad to be back in technology. 162 00:07:54.079 --> 00:07:56.360 I guess I'm curious going back to the Zip tou moment, 163 00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:58.959 you had hundreds of millions of dollars or you had 164 00:07:58.959 --> 00:08:01.160 to exit a worth millions of dollars. 165 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:02.480 I got twenty million dollars. 166 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:07.360 Okay, so you solved the money problem and you basically 167 00:08:07.399 --> 00:08:09.839 took it and you rolled. You kept rolling with X 168 00:08:09.879 --> 00:08:13.600 dot Com, which is in PayPal and Confinity. 169 00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:15.600 Yes, I kept the chips on the table. 170 00:08:16.040 --> 00:08:19.199 Yeah, so not everyone does that. A lot of the 171 00:08:19.199 --> 00:08:21.720 people in this room will have to make that decision. Actually, 172 00:08:21.879 --> 00:08:24.040 what drove you to jump back into the ring? 173 00:08:25.519 --> 00:08:27.519 Think I felt for with up too. We'd both like 174 00:08:27.560 --> 00:08:30.480 incredible technology but never really got to use. I think, 175 00:08:31.160 --> 00:08:33.559 at least from my perspective, we had better technology than 176 00:08:33.600 --> 00:08:36.759 say Yahoo or anyone else, but it was constrained by 177 00:08:36.799 --> 00:08:39.639 our customers. And so I wanted to do something that 178 00:08:39.960 --> 00:08:42.559 where okay, we wouldn't be constrained by our customers, go 179 00:08:42.600 --> 00:08:46.159 direct consumer. And that's what ended up being like X 180 00:08:46.200 --> 00:08:49.759 dot Com PayPal, essentially X dot Com merging with Confinity, 181 00:08:49.879 --> 00:08:53.759 which together created PayPal, and then that actually the sort 182 00:08:53.759 --> 00:08:57.840 of PayPal diaspora has it. It might have created more 183 00:08:57.919 --> 00:09:01.840 companies then, so more companies than probably any anything in 184 00:09:01.840 --> 00:09:04.399 the twenty first century. So many talented people were at 185 00:09:04.440 --> 00:09:06.879 the combination of Confinity X dot com. 186 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:09.279 So I just wanted to, like, I felt, we got. 187 00:09:09.120 --> 00:09:11.879 Our wings clift somewhat with ZIP two, and it's okay, 188 00:09:11.879 --> 00:09:13.279 what if our wings are on clipped and we go 189 00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:16.440 direct to consumer And that's what PayPal ended up being. 190 00:09:17.200 --> 00:09:20.720 But yeah, with I got that twenty million dollar check 191 00:09:20.919 --> 00:09:24.039 for my share of ZIP two. At the time, I 192 00:09:24.080 --> 00:09:27.919 was living in a house with four housemates and had 193 00:09:28.120 --> 00:09:31.159 a ten grand in the bank and then this check 194 00:09:31.240 --> 00:09:33.679 arrives in the mail of all places, and in the 195 00:09:33.720 --> 00:09:35.919 mail and then now then my bank anounce went from 196 00:09:36.759 --> 00:09:40.320 ten to twenty million in ten thousand. Okay, sluck to 197 00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:42.519 pay taxes on that at all. But then I ended 198 00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:45.559 up putting almost all of that into x dot com 199 00:09:45.600 --> 00:09:48.279 and as you said, just keeping almost all the chips 200 00:09:48.279 --> 00:09:48.799 on the table. 201 00:09:49.559 --> 00:09:53.240 And yeah, and then after PayPal was like, I was 202 00:09:53.240 --> 00:09:54.120 curious as to why we. 203 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:57.120 Had not sent anyone to Mars, and I went on 204 00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.960 the NASA website to find out when we're sending people tomorrow, 205 00:10:00.200 --> 00:10:02.600 and there was no date. I thought maybe it was 206 00:10:02.639 --> 00:10:05.320 just hard to find on the website, but in fact, 207 00:10:05.639 --> 00:10:08.080 there was no real plan to send people to Mars. 208 00:10:09.440 --> 00:10:11.720 So then I've come to this is such a long story, 209 00:10:11.759 --> 00:10:13.559 so I don't want to take up too much time here, but. 210 00:10:14.200 --> 00:10:16.039 I think we're all listening with rapt attention. 211 00:10:16.600 --> 00:10:17.120 So I was. 212 00:10:17.159 --> 00:10:19.320 Actually I was on the long end of the expressway 213 00:10:19.480 --> 00:10:22.360 with my friend day ORESI. We were like housemates in college, 214 00:10:22.840 --> 00:10:24.679 and DAAs asking me what I'm what we're gonna do? 215 00:10:24.759 --> 00:10:26.840 What am I gonna do after a PayPal and I 216 00:10:26.879 --> 00:10:28.840 was like, so, I don't know. I guess maybe I'd 217 00:10:28.840 --> 00:10:31.200 like to do something philanthropic in space, because I didn't 218 00:10:31.200 --> 00:10:33.720 think I could actually do anything commercial in space because 219 00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:37.440 that seemed like the purview of nations. But I'm curious 220 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:39.799 as to when we're gonna send people to Mars. And 221 00:10:39.840 --> 00:10:41.519 that's when I was like, oh, it's not on the website, 222 00:10:41.519 --> 00:10:45.000 and I started digging. There's nothing on the NAST website. 223 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:47.960 So then I started digging in and I'm definitely summarizing 224 00:10:48.000 --> 00:10:51.039 a lot here. But my first idea was to do 225 00:10:51.120 --> 00:10:54.600 a philanthropic mission to Mars called Life to Mars, where 226 00:10:55.360 --> 00:10:59.320 would send a small greenhouse with CS and dehydrated nutrient 227 00:10:59.399 --> 00:11:03.080 gael land out our mosque and grow hydrate the Jael 228 00:11:03.320 --> 00:11:05.399 and then you'd have this great sort of money shot 229 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:09.159 of green plants on a red background. For the longest time, 230 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:10.720 I by the way, I didn't realize money shot. I 231 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:13.240 think is a porn reference. But anyway, the point is 232 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:15.039 that would be the great shot of green plants on 233 00:11:15.080 --> 00:11:18.360 a red background. And to try to inspire NASA in 234 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:21.080 the public to Santa astronauts to Mars. 235 00:11:21.519 --> 00:11:24.480 As I learned more, I came to realize along the way. 236 00:11:24.519 --> 00:11:27.200 By the way, I went to Russia in two thousand 237 00:11:27.240 --> 00:11:30.600 and one and two thousand and two to buy ICBMs, 238 00:11:31.440 --> 00:11:33.480 which is that's an adventure where you go and meet 239 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:35.240 with Russian high command and say I'd like to buy 240 00:11:35.279 --> 00:11:36.200 some ICBMs. 241 00:11:37.200 --> 00:11:40.279 This was to get to space, yeah, a rocket, not. 242 00:11:40.200 --> 00:11:42.799 To nuke anyone, but they had to as a result 243 00:11:42.799 --> 00:11:45.399 of arms production talks, they had to actually destroy a 244 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:48.840 bunch of their big nuclear pistoles. So I was like, 245 00:11:48.879 --> 00:11:50.919 how about if we take two of those minus the 246 00:11:51.000 --> 00:11:54.840 nuke added an additional upper stage for Mars. But it 247 00:11:54.919 --> 00:11:58.799 was trippy being in Moscow in two thousand and one 248 00:11:58.879 --> 00:12:03.919 negotiating with the Russian military to buy icvms, like that's crazy, 249 00:12:07.120 --> 00:12:10.279 but the kettles are raising the price on me. So 250 00:12:10.360 --> 00:12:12.519 that so literally it's like the opposite of what a 251 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:15.440 negotiation to do. So I was like, man, these things 252 00:12:15.480 --> 00:12:17.720 are getting really expensive. And then I came to realize 253 00:12:17.759 --> 00:12:20.399 that actually the problem was not that there was insufficient 254 00:12:20.440 --> 00:12:22.559 world to go to Mars, but there was no way 255 00:12:22.600 --> 00:12:24.960 to do without breaking the budget, or even breaking the 256 00:12:25.039 --> 00:12:25.720 NASA budget. 257 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:29.000 So that's where I decided to start SpaceX. 258 00:12:29.080 --> 00:12:33.000 It's SpaceX to advance rocket technology to the point where 259 00:12:33.039 --> 00:12:34.759 we could send people to Mars. 260 00:12:35.639 --> 00:12:37.279 And that was in two thousand and two. 261 00:12:37.960 --> 00:12:41.000 So that wasn't But you didn't start out wanting to 262 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:44.279 start a business. You wanted to start just something that 263 00:12:44.360 --> 00:12:48.080 was interesting to you that you thought humanity needed, and 264 00:12:48.120 --> 00:12:51.759 then as you kat pulling on a string, it just 265 00:12:51.799 --> 00:12:54.720 the ball sort of unravels and it turns out this 266 00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:56.960 is could be a very profitable business. 267 00:12:58.240 --> 00:13:02.159 It is now, but it there had been no prior 268 00:13:02.200 --> 00:13:05.320 example of really a rocket startup succeeding. There have been 269 00:13:05.399 --> 00:13:08.919 various attempts to do commercial rocket companies and then whole 270 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:12.919 failed again with SpaceX. Starting SpaceX was really from the 271 00:13:12.919 --> 00:13:15.320 standpoint of I think there's a less than ten percent 272 00:13:15.399 --> 00:13:18.679 chance of being successful, maybe one percent, I don't know. 273 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:23.480 But if a startup doesn't do something to advance rocket technology, 274 00:13:23.559 --> 00:13:26.919 it's definitely not coming from the big defense contractors because 275 00:13:26.960 --> 00:13:30.200 they just impedancemashed to the government, and the government just 276 00:13:30.240 --> 00:13:34.279 wants to do very conventional things. So it's either coming 277 00:13:34.279 --> 00:13:36.840 from a startup where it's not happening at all. So 278 00:13:37.039 --> 00:13:39.519 like a small chance of success is better than no 279 00:13:39.639 --> 00:13:44.200 chance of success, and so that Yeah, so SpaceX start 280 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:47.519 that in mid two thousand and two expecting to fail, 281 00:13:47.799 --> 00:13:50.879 Like I said, probably ninety percent chance of failing. And 282 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:54.000 even like when recruiting people, I didn't try to make 283 00:13:54.039 --> 00:13:56.200 out that it would probably I said, we're probably going 284 00:13:56.240 --> 00:13:58.720 to die, but a small chance we might not die. 285 00:13:59.639 --> 00:14:01.679 But this is the only way to get people to 286 00:14:01.679 --> 00:14:04.759 Mars and advanced the state of the art. And then 287 00:14:04.919 --> 00:14:07.080 I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket, not 288 00:14:07.120 --> 00:14:09.879 because I wanted to, but because I couldn't hire anyone 289 00:14:09.919 --> 00:14:13.879 who was good, So like none of the good sort 290 00:14:13.879 --> 00:14:15.840 of chief engineers would join because it's like this is 291 00:14:15.840 --> 00:14:18.399 too risky, you were going to die. And so then 292 00:14:18.399 --> 00:14:20.399 I ended up being chief engineer of the rocket, and 293 00:14:21.000 --> 00:14:23.000 the first three flights did fail, so it's a bit 294 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:27.399 of a learning exercise there, and the fourth one fortunately worked. 295 00:14:27.399 --> 00:14:29.519 But if the fourth one hadn't worked, I had no 296 00:14:29.559 --> 00:14:31.960 money left and that would have been it would have 297 00:14:31.960 --> 00:14:32.480 been curtains. 298 00:14:32.519 --> 00:14:33.720 So it was a pretty close thing. 299 00:14:33.960 --> 00:14:37.080 If the fourth launch of a Falcon not work, it 300 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:39.799 would have been just curtains and we would have just 301 00:14:39.840 --> 00:14:43.639 been joined the graveyard of prior rocket startups. So it's 302 00:14:43.679 --> 00:14:47.600 like my estimate of success was not far off. We'd 303 00:14:47.639 --> 00:14:49.200 just we made it by the skin of our teeth. 304 00:14:49.759 --> 00:14:53.000 And Tesla was happening simultaneously. Like two thousand and eight 305 00:14:53.120 --> 00:14:55.639 was a rough year because at mid two thousand and 306 00:14:55.679 --> 00:14:58.639 eight were called Summer two thousand and eight, the third 307 00:14:58.679 --> 00:15:01.360 launch of SpaceX had fail, a failure in a row, 308 00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:05.559 the Tesla financing round had failed, and so Tela was 309 00:15:05.559 --> 00:15:06.600 going bankrupt fast. 310 00:15:07.320 --> 00:15:10.039 It was just, man, this is a grim. 311 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:13.039 This is going to be a tale of warning of 312 00:15:13.759 --> 00:15:15.279 an exercise in hubris. 313 00:15:15.679 --> 00:15:18.000 Probably throughout that period a lot of people were saying 314 00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:21.600 Elon is a software guy, Why are you working on hardware? 315 00:15:21.879 --> 00:15:24.399 Why would you yeah, why would he choose to work 316 00:15:24.399 --> 00:15:24.759 on this. 317 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:27.720 Harp said, so you can look at the because they're 318 00:15:27.720 --> 00:15:30.159 still the press of that time is still online. You 319 00:15:30.200 --> 00:15:33.159 could just search it. And they kept calling the Internet guy. 320 00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:38.440 So Internet Guy aka fool is attempting to build a 321 00:15:38.519 --> 00:15:42.159 rocket company that we got ridiculed quite a lot. And 322 00:15:42.240 --> 00:15:45.679 it does sound pretty absurd, like internet guy starts rocket 323 00:15:45.679 --> 00:15:49.879 company doesn't sound like a recipe for success. Frankly, so 324 00:15:49.919 --> 00:15:51.600 I didn't hold it against them. I was like, yeah, 325 00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:54.919 admittedly it does sound improbable, and I agree that it's improbable. 326 00:15:55.440 --> 00:15:58.519 But fortunately the fourth launch worked and a NASSA ordered 327 00:15:58.600 --> 00:16:02.159 us a contractory supply the space station. And I think 328 00:16:02.240 --> 00:16:08.720 that was like maybe December twenty second or it was 329 00:16:08.759 --> 00:16:11.799 it like right before Christmas. Because even the fourth launch 330 00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:15.159 working wasn't enough to succeed, NASA also needed we also 331 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:17.240 needed a big contract to keep us LFE. So I 332 00:16:17.279 --> 00:16:20.879 got that call from like the NASA team and I 333 00:16:20.919 --> 00:16:24.240 literally said, we're rewarding you one of the contracts to 334 00:16:24.279 --> 00:16:26.559 resupply the space station. I like literally blurred it out, 335 00:16:26.600 --> 00:16:29.840 I love you guys, which is not normally what they 336 00:16:29.879 --> 00:16:33.360 hear because it's usually pretty sober. But I was like, man, 337 00:16:33.399 --> 00:16:36.960 this is a company saver and then we closed the 338 00:16:37.039 --> 00:16:40.360 Tesla financing around on the last hour of the last 339 00:16:40.440 --> 00:16:42.799 day that it was possible, which was six pm December 340 00:16:42.840 --> 00:16:45.840 twenty fourth, two thousand and eight. We would have bounced 341 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:48.320 payroll two days after Christmas if that round hadn't closed. 342 00:16:49.720 --> 00:16:51.399 So that was a nerve wracking end of two thousand 343 00:16:51.399 --> 00:16:52.240 and eight, that's for sure. 344 00:16:52.879 --> 00:16:55.840 I guess from your PayPal and zipq experience jumping into 345 00:16:55.919 --> 00:17:00.799 these hardcore hardware startups, it feels like one of the 346 00:17:00.840 --> 00:17:04.519 through lines was being able to find and eventually attract 347 00:17:04.559 --> 00:17:09.559 the smartest possible people in those particular fields. What would 348 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:11.400 the people in this room, like some of most of 349 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:13.559 the people here I don't think have even managed a 350 00:17:13.640 --> 00:17:16.599 single person yet, they're just starting their careers. What would 351 00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:19.559 you tell to the elon who's never had to do 352 00:17:20.319 --> 00:17:20.839 that yet. 353 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:24.000 I generally think to try to be as useful as possible. 354 00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:27.240 It may sound try, but it's it's so hard to 355 00:17:27.279 --> 00:17:29.720 be useful, especially to be useful to a lot of people. 356 00:17:30.400 --> 00:17:32.240 Where you say, the area under the cove of total 357 00:17:32.319 --> 00:17:34.359 utility is like, how how useful have you been to 358 00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:37.759 your feel human beings? Times how many people? It's almost 359 00:17:37.799 --> 00:17:40.640 like the physics definition of true work. It's incredibly difficult 360 00:17:40.640 --> 00:17:42.480 to do that. I think if you aspire to do 361 00:17:42.559 --> 00:17:47.599 true work, your probably success is much higher. Don't aspire 362 00:17:47.599 --> 00:17:48.960 to glory, aspire to work. 363 00:17:49.599 --> 00:17:53.240 How can you tell that it's true work? Is it external? 364 00:17:53.319 --> 00:17:55.440 Is it like what happens with other people or what 365 00:17:55.480 --> 00:17:58.000 the product does for people? Like what is that for you? 366 00:17:59.039 --> 00:18:00.880 When you're looking for people to come work for you? 367 00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:03.079 What what's the salient thing that you look for or 368 00:18:03.279 --> 00:18:03.799 if they're. 369 00:18:04.079 --> 00:18:07.160 As certain question? I guess it's in terms of your 370 00:18:07.240 --> 00:18:07.759 in product. 371 00:18:07.839 --> 00:18:09.640 You just have to say, if this thing is successful, 372 00:18:09.680 --> 00:18:12.799 how useful it be to how many people? And that's 373 00:18:12.920 --> 00:18:14.720 what I mean. And then you do you do whatever, 374 00:18:15.480 --> 00:18:17.640 whether you're CEO or any role in a startup, you 375 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:20.240 do whatever it takes to succeed, and just always be 376 00:18:20.279 --> 00:18:25.480 smash smashing your ego like internalized responsibility. Like a major 377 00:18:25.519 --> 00:18:29.000 failure mode is when ego to ability ratio is double 378 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:29.920 graded than sign one. 379 00:18:30.559 --> 00:18:31.200 If you if your. 380 00:18:31.119 --> 00:18:33.920 Ego to ability ratio is it gets too high, then 381 00:18:33.960 --> 00:18:36.319 you're going to basically break the feedback loop to reality. 382 00:18:36.680 --> 00:18:40.039 And in in AI terms, your your er, you'll have 383 00:18:40.359 --> 00:18:43.720 your you'll break your RL loop. So you want. You 384 00:18:43.759 --> 00:18:45.000 want to don't want to break your art. You want 385 00:18:45.000 --> 00:18:47.440 to have a strong r L loop, which means internalizing 386 00:18:47.519 --> 00:18:50.839 responsibility and minimizing ego, and you do whatever the task is, 387 00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:54.079 no matter whether it's grand or humble. That's like why 388 00:18:54.079 --> 00:18:58.799 I actually I prefer the term like engineering as opposed 389 00:18:58.839 --> 00:19:02.240 to research. I prefer the term and I don't I 390 00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:04.000 actually don't want it to call XAI lab. 391 00:19:04.000 --> 00:19:05.240 I just want to be a company. 392 00:19:05.920 --> 00:19:10.799 Like It's like, what of the simplest, more straightforward, ideally 393 00:19:10.839 --> 00:19:13.160 lowist ego terms are that those are generally a good 394 00:19:13.160 --> 00:19:14.880 way to go. You want you want to just close 395 00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:17.880 the loop on reality hard that's a super big deal. 396 00:19:18.279 --> 00:19:20.559 I think everyone in this room is really looks up 397 00:19:20.559 --> 00:19:24.240 to everything you've done around being a paragon of first 398 00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:26.400 principles and thinking. 399 00:19:26.119 --> 00:19:27.160 About the stuff you've done. 400 00:19:27.920 --> 00:19:32.279 How do you actually determine your reality because that seems 401 00:19:32.319 --> 00:19:35.240