Speaker 1: What's going on. Thank you so much for listening to
this podcast. It is heard live every day from noon
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to your smartphone or tablet, And again, thank you so
much for your support. We've been talking about what maybe
the economic model that is at the heart of what
Trump is doing, and it's called balanced Trade, and it
was first written about under that title. I don't know
if it predates this, but nineteen ninety six. I went
over this in the last hour. And now we've got
news that's breaking on China, that is, they've done retaliatory
tariffs on us, and then Trump just hit them with
another set and he just said. There was a clip
at the top of the hour news where he said,
you know, this will continue until China comes to the
table and does a deal. And they want to make
a deal, but they just don't know how to They
don't know how to get here, and that may be
part of it, like they don't want to lose face
in coming and working out a deal. Also, remember they're commies. Okay,
they are communists, so you can't really trust them. Let
me play a clip, well, actually, let me get a
call from Trent on first, and then I'm going to
play a clip of mister wonderful but Trent welcome to
the program. Hello, Trent.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much, love your show man. It's awesome.
Speaker 1: I appreciate.
Speaker 2: I want to give a shout I want to give
a shout out to PhD Weight Loss Man. I was
June seventh, I went into PhD Weight loss Man. Those guys,
those those counselors are absolutely awesome, those nutritions, they're aftuly awesome.
I was two or sixty three pounds when I went
in there. Five months later, I was down to one
hundred and eighty nine pounds stuck with their plan, man,
and it has been a game and life changer for me.
Speaker 1: That's awesome, dude too. You started at two sixty three, yep,
and you went down to one nine?
Speaker 2: Is that your have lost seventy four pounds and I'm
still at that the weight at this time right now.
Speaker 1: That's awesome, dude, is that your goal weight? That's what
you were shooting for.
Speaker 2: No, I was shooting for a little bit lower, but
I was very happy. My wife started looking at me
and goes, man, hey, man, you're getting really skinny. I said, yeah,
I'm feeling pretty good though. I'm just waiting stuff. And
you know, I'm gonna be looking good in my bathing
suit when it comes this summer. So that's kind of
how I was looking at it.
Speaker 1: Nice, that's awesome trend it is. I love talking to
people who have gone through the program like that because
and you hit your goal or you you finished the
program how long ago.
Speaker 2: I'm just this is I'm getting into the maintenance phase
right now.
Speaker 1: Gotcha. Well, I would shoot me an email if you
got any questions whatever about maintenance. I am happy to help.
But you know, those nutritionists are there with you too.
Speaker 2: They and they are tremendous. They are absolutely tremendous. But
you know, I spent thirty years actually putting on the
way and then it took a little time to get
it off. It took me five months to get the
weight off. And that's the way I kind of look
over here. Dealing with Trump's tariff man, I mean Bill Clinton,
you know, no matter I voted for him the second term. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Boom me I tell you what man, I really did
even after all that would happen. But I'll tell you
right now, Ma Wallett was doing feeling pretty good during
that time period. But you know, he's one of the responsibility,
one of the ones responsible for actually trying to be
in the World Trade Organization and actually having a present
what is it, preferential trade status inside the World Trade Organization?
Speaker 1: Yeah, most Favored nation status, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Both exactly, and then NAFTA that was Bill Clinton. Well,
here's what they've done. We have sold our tail off
to the rest of the world. Where are textile industries
that used to be inside Concord in Kannapolis, North Carolina.
Where's the steel industry. Where's our furniture business used to
be in Hickory and Wits the Salem. You know, where
in the world are drug manufacturers. Everything's being done over there.
We've been at war with we have been war with
China economically for thirty five years, and people just waking
up to it. I'm just glad that we've got somebody
who's got gusting up to try something a little bit different.
I'm kind of like you, Pete. I am a wait
and see exactly what is going to happen. I'm not
actually based on what's happening today. I think we have
overreaction on the stock market. I've got money investing in
the stockham I taking a hit, Yeah, but I'm not
looking to draw that money out today. I'm not looking
to draw that money out tomorrow. I'm not looking to
draw that money out next year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but there are people. But there are people who
who are looking to draw out next year, and we
should keep that in mind. That there are people that
are looking at the stock market and our concerned because
their retirement accounts have taken a beating and they may
be approaching, if not entering, right now, retirement.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And you know, I feel for those people. Once again,
I didn't lose my weight in a day. I didn't
lose my weight in a year, and I didn't put
the weight on in a day or a year either,
And I just I just think that we need to
kind of actually be patient, see what happens, see what approaches.
But something has to be done because those good textile jobs,
those good industrial jobs, they have just gone to the wayside.
I mean, they have just been pushed off to other
countries where the labor is so much cheaper right well.
Speaker 1: And they have a lot of those jobs have been
I've talked about this before. Over the last week, a
lot of those jobs have been lost to automation. These
are high tech jobs. You need fewer people to do them,
and we produce like we like Right now, an American
steel worker makes almost two tons of steel per worker
per hour or something like that, whereas like fifty years
ago it was less than as I point eight percent
of a ton like it. So the productivity has continuously
gone up for our manufacturing sector. And I've said this
number two repeatedly. Half a million manufacturing jobs are unfilled
right now in America. And the question I asked yesterday
is do people even want these jobs? Like we keep
talking about how oh, these will be good, you know,
manufacturing jobs. But if people are refusing to work them,
then what's the point of on shoring all of these jobs.
Speaker 2: I teach for a living, yeah, and I have young
men that just left my classroom that would love jobs
like that. I just don't think there's a lot of
recruiting going on manufacturing wives to try to actually get
these young men into those jobs. I'm not a big
I'm not a big fan of common Core, and I
wann't a big fan of No Child Left Behind. I
wasn't a big fan of either one of those because
I think we sold ourselves out to the rest of
the world when we did that and try to actually
mainstream everybody to college.
Speaker 1: Have you seen have you seen the results that just
came out about Mississippi. Have you seen their their reading,
their nape scores? I have not their number one in
third grade math and reading. They're calling it the Mississippi miracle.
Like would they used to be the butt of the jokes,
but they went back to phonics years ago and they
implemented a focus on reading and math at the lower
grades and they just did it the old fashioned way,
and now they had the highest scores or something. Uh. Yeah,
I saw the headline on it and pulled the story.
I just haven't gotten to it. But you, as an educator,
you may be interested to look that up, because, like
to your point about common Core, Yeah, like the old
tools seem to work and Mississippi just implemented them again,
and it seems to have paid off.
Speaker 2: For Absolutely, we get back to we get back to
common sense. I think that we'll get back to a
very prosperous America.
Speaker 1: Yeah, now, I got you, Trent to I appreciate the call, buddy.
Congratulations on the on the weight loss too, thank you. Yes, absolutely,
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video dot com. All right, I promised I would play
a clip here from Mister Wonderful. Mister Wonderful is also
known as Kevin O'Leary, and he's been now making the
rounds on a bunch of the cable news shows. He's
been on CNN and Fox and Stuff. I knew him
from Shark Tank, the NBC show, and I used to
love watching Shark Tank the early seasons, and for I
think everybody knows the concept, right. Inventors come in and
they pitch their invention and then you got five you know, investors,
and they negotiate deals with the inventor and usually the
inventor will give up a portion of the ownership of
the company in order to get you know, the sharks
help with you know, getting their product into the big
box stores or getting production done or whatever. So it's
really a fantastic show. And I've like, there are a
lot of products that are on the market today that
came through this program. He's one of those sharks. Okay
so and East Canadian, if I recall correctly, very wealthy
does a lot of business in China, all over the
globe and all of this stuff. So here he is
on CNN.
Speaker 3: One hundred and four percent tariffs in China are not enough.
I'm advocating four hundred percent. I do business in China.
They don't play by the rules. They've been in the
wo for decades. They have never abided by any of
the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades.
They cheat, they steal, they steal ip I can't litigate
in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it,
they manufacture it and sell it back. Here never has
an administrator and four or I want like Chi on
an airplane to Washington to level the playing field. It
is not about tariffs anymore. Nobody has taken on China yet,
not the Europeans, no administration.
Speaker 4: For decades.
Speaker 3: As someone who actually does business there, I've had enough.
I speak for millions of Americans who have ip that
have been stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing against
the Chinese people. They brought great literacy, art and tech
to the world, the government cheats and steals and coming. Finally,
an administration. You may not like Trump, you may not
like his style or his rhetoric. Finally, an administration that
puts up and says enough four hundred percent tariffs tomorrow morning.
Speaker 4: He'll tell you why.
Speaker 3: She can only stay the supreme leader if people are employed,
if we wipe out any business there, Because we are
still thirty nine percent of all consumables on Earth and
twenty five percent of the world's GDP, America is the
number one economy on Earth with all the cards. We
will not have that forever. It's time to squeeze Chinese
heads into the wall.
Speaker 4: Now, well, well, I hear you, but hold on.
Speaker 5: If we're talking about people, the average consumer, not necessarily
the head honchos of businesses all across the globe. Can
they withstand the pressure of that sort of tax on
the good? But yeah, but what's your timeline compared You
don't know the average Americans timeline, what they can actually survive.
Speaker 4: There's people right now who.
Speaker 3: Can serve tomorrow morning cheese on an airplane to Washington
to cut a deal.
Speaker 4: There you go.
Speaker 1: Kevin O'Leary, advocating four hundred percent tariffs in order to
force the communist leader to get over here or his
representative to get over here and negotiate a trade deal.
By the way, congratulations to Richard from Matthews, he won
the tickets. Good job, Richard. Joel Barry is the managing
editor of the Babylon b and UH. In response to
this clip from Kevin O'Leary, he posted on Twitter formerly
known as X When I worked in international logistics, I
had many customers who imported from China, and even a
few inventors of new products. The story was always the same.
An American invents an exciting new product, they then manufacture
it in China, and within a year there are one
hundred others in China stealing the design and flooding the
market with cheap knockoffs. The inventor can't do anything and
they lose it all. China has presided over the greatest
theft and transfer of wealth from the United States in history.
They need to be dealt with, right I have from
the very beginning, ever since Trump rolled out this regime.
What April second, whenever it was, I guess it was
a week ago today, I guess so. And he had
the big charts and all of that. I have been
very clear that China is a separate thing than all
of the other countries that we're talking about. Every country
is going to be different, right whatever. And my questions
at the time were about, well, wait a minute, why
are we slapping tariffs on countries where we are running
surpluses against them?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: This doesn't seem like a uniform kind of a level
setting kind of deal. So again, trying to decipher the
rationale for all of the different pieces has been very difficult,
not just for me but for everybody. And we get
all of the mixed messaging not helping. But with China,
we would never trade with the Soviet Union like we
do with China. I understand the argument at the time.
The free trade argument was, you know, the Soviet Union collapsed,
and so we will encourage China to move away from
that communist philosophy and move more towards the global community,
if you will. It hasn't wor it hasn't worked, and
maybe actually the Communist Party would have fallen in China
had we treated them the same way that we treated
the Russians the Soviets. Here's a great idea how about
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make memories that'll last a lifetime. Some breaking news two items,
actually they are related. I suspect number one. The Dow
is now back up over forty thousand. It has picked
up what is that somewhere around seven percent. It has
made back almost all of the losses over the last
two days. The reason maybe might have something to do
with an announcement made on Donald Trump's truth social with
under his count and it says, quote, based on the
lack of respect that China has shown to the world's markets,
I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by
the United States of America to one hundred and twenty
five percent effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the
near future, China will realize that the days of ripping
off the USA and other countries is no longer sustainable
or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more
than seventy five countries have called representatives of the United States,
including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR to
negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to trade,
trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation, and non monetary tariffs, and
that these countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated
in any way, shape or form against the United States.
I have authorized a ninety day pause and a substantially
lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of ten percent, also
effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter,
which is like, that's what you get from your HR.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. So he
just cut to all of those crazy rates that were
all over the place and all that they've all been.
He's taken them all to ten, just ten percent, and
paused for three months except China. Now Eric Ericson, who
was a talk show host out of Atlanta, he wrote
the following, I got up this morning to start writing
and show prepping. Much of what is below was written
last night with the goal of getting up this morning
and revising it in set, which, by the way, when
you do a show, you're always prepping. And I will
prep stuff for this. I will prep it all morning long.
I wake up at six and I start prepping. But
I also prep after the show for the following day, Right,
So I'm constantly putting stuff into the pipeline, and then
you know, you wake up in the morning, you look
at the day's news, and if nothing is really going on,
I'm just kidding. There's always something going on. But you then,
you know, you try to piece together the show from
the prep you did the night before and from the morning.
So part of his process is he writes this stuff
out in the previous night. So this is what he
says he wrote last night in preparation for his show today.
Given overnight markets, he says, I am told by somebody
in close Trump orbit that the president is considering a
pause on the tariffs. Despite his statements last night. He
came under extraordinary pressure from major donors late yesterday to
find any excuse at all to claim that he could
pause the tariffs. The speculation is pretty much what I
had guessed. He will claim that he has so many
offers to negotiate that tariffs need to be paused because
he cannot negotiate so many deals before tariffs affect all
of those begging for relief, which is exactly what Trump
just announced. Ericson said, the bottom line is I am
told by very reliable I am told very reliably that
yesterday major business leaders who backed Trump's election made clear
to him that bad things are coming if the tariffs
are not paused. Keep in mind, this is not a guarantee.
Parts of the close Trump orbit, there is a growing
belief that, given his conversations yesterday, he'll hit pause sometime
this week. That's what Ericson had worked up based on
his contacts inside Trump World last night for today's show.
So a ninety day pause and a reduction to a
baseline ten percent. That's where this is now gone. And
this was all part of the plan. I assume that's. Look,
I'm not going to argue with people about what was
the actual intent and what wasn't or whatever, because when
people have beliefs, it is very difficult to move them
off of those beliefs. People spend a lot of time
defending positions, and then if those positions flip, then they'll
they'll be faced with either the recognition that they were
lied to and that they helped to promulgate the lie,
or they have to kind of double down and just
say that's what the that's what the plan was. The
whole time, I don't need to know what the plan is.
I'm just being a foot soldier basically. And so he
always had this plan. This was always the way it
was going to go. I don't know if that's true.
I'm just to be clear. See I'm not laying down
a mark or saying he lied about all of this.
I have no idea what happened. But if people in
Trump world told Eric Erickson that a bunch of these
business leaders that were big donors to Trump came in
and they were like, dude, you're going to wreck us.
You need to find an off ramp fast. And here's
the thing. He's keeping the ones on China, and that's
really like, that's the biggest threat. That's the biggest problem
that we have with the trade deficit. It is we
run surpluses to other countries. It's China that, as you
just heard in the clip from Kevin o'lear, it's China
that has ignored all of these WTO regulations. They've stolen
intellectual property from countries and people all over the planet.
We're not the only ones, and so fighting them on
their economic practices, I think that's the proper target. So
I don't know we'll see. By the way, I mentioned
at the beginning that there was a fellow by the
name of Jim Rickards. He was on a podcast. I
have some audio. I'm going to start playing some of
it in the next segment and then more in the
final hour. But Records is a proponent of these tariffs.
So he's a supporter of what Trump has been doing. Okay,
but he also says we are in a recession right now.
That's what he says, based on the analytics that he
looks at. He says, because the definition of a recession
by the Biden teams attempt to redefine it. You know,
a couple of years ago, two quarters of negative quote
growth of shrinkage, basically two quarters back to back, right,
That's always been the definition of a recession. But you
don't know that until after the fact. So there are
other analytics that he looks at, and he says, those
analytics show that we are in a recession, and we
are at the part now where it's like it's now
settled in all right. If you're listening to this show,
you know I try to keep up with all sorts
of current events, and I know you do too, And
You've probably heard me say get your news from multiple sources.
Why well, because it's how you detect media bias, which
is why I've been so impressed with ground News. It's
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also supports ground News as they make the media landscape
more transparent. All right, So this fella, Jim Rickards a
seasoned attorney. I don't know what kind of seasoning, but
he is seasoned. Also an economist and a national security expert.
Over his four decade career, he has advised the CIA,
the Pentagon, the US Treasury. He has played pivotal roles
in financial negotiations during multiple national crises. He is the
author of Currency Wars, The Road to Ruin, and other
New York Times bestsellers. He was on the Triggernometry podcast.
The episode is the latest one, I believe that's up there,
so you can watch it if you would like, and
he has asked about his current read on or his
read on the current situation.
Speaker 4: We probably are in a recession. The thing is, you know,
the official scorekeeper. This is for the United States, not
the world. A world recession is rare, by the way.
Usually you know one sector, you know, Europe, the United States,
or Asia could be in a recession. Others might be
doing better trying to pull the world economy out of
a bit. But a global recession, that do happen, but
they're quite rare. But just with reference with regards to
the United States, there's this National Bureau of Economic Research.
It's a bunch of big head economists up in Cambridge.
They're the official, unofficial scorekeepers, so they tell you when
you have recession, when you're out of BETATC and that's
widely accepted. The problem is they usually tell you you've
entered a recession about six months after it's over, so
you can't rely on them. So you have to look
at a lot of other metrics, predictive analytics and so
forth to if you want to either predict it or
just kind of know it at real time. So you're
saying the US may already be in a recession. What
are the markers? What are the markers? Well, there are
a lot of them, but one is, you know, the Federals.
Theerve Bank of Atlanta has a tracker. It's called GDP.
Now it's actually pretty good. Some of these statistical methods,
certainly the ones on Wall Street aren't worth our time,
but the Land of fed is a pretty good tracker.
It went from around numbers kind of positive two point
four percent for the first quarter of twenty twenty five
to negative two point seven percent in a matter of days.
And it looks like at Acapolca clifftop. It went straight down.
And they said, well, the reason is because of Trump's
tariff proposals, and you know he puts them on, takes
them off. No one really knows. But because of that,
there was a surge of imports. People were trying to
actually get stuff into the United States before the tariff said,
and of course imports increase the trade deficit, which decreases GDP.
That was the explanation for that, probably something to that,
But there's just a lot else going on. We're not
quite at the stage of ness layoffs. But hiring hit
a wall about six months ago a little bit longer
where they just stop. Basically, people weren't hiring anymore. They
firing people is the last thing you do. By the
time you get to the layoff stage. It's the unemployment
going up. That's the sign. That's a lagging indicator. You're
probably already in the recession because it's so hard to
find people, train them, you know, get them going. It's
the last thing you want to do. So you'll you know,
cut out the laundry, build you know, turn down the
electricity and negotiate the way. You'll do a lot of
elves before you lay people off. When you start doing that.
We're getting close to that point now, all right.
Speaker 1: Another indicator he points to is the yield curve, and
he explains that.
Speaker 4: Well, fortunately this is an easy one. So so the
yield curve is just you know, a typical curve. So
the y axis, the vertical axis are interest rates, and
the X axis, the horizontal axis arereturities. So the US
Treasury people say, you know, government security as well. Okay,
but there's a one month bill, a three month bill,
a one year, a two year note, a five year note,
all the way out to a thirty year bond. So
that's the X axis, all right.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna pause right there so you understand, get
the visual in your head. On the left side, you've
got the you know, vertical axis, the the y axis
top to bottom, and that's the yields, the interest rates,
and then on the bottom is the X axis, and
it's broken up into basically time period how long it
takes for the bonds to mature, from you know, months
all the way out to thirty years. And so what
that yield curve normally looks like is it starts in
the bottom left hand side of the of that axis
of that graph starts at the bottom left and then
kind of like gradually goes up like a hill. It
goes up and then flattens out at the top. That's
what a normal yield curve looks like?
Speaker 4: Why access or interest rates? Every one of those has
a different interest rate. They can be close or where
there could be a spread, and all you do is
you plot those interest rates. So what's a normal YEO curve?
A normal YO curve is upwardly sloping from left to right,
and that makes sense. You know, longer maturity. If I'm
going to lend you overnight, I might want one rate.
If we're going to lend you for ten years, and say, well,
what could happen to ten years? So I'm going to
want a higher rate. So an upperly sloping YE curve
is normal, but periodically it's not bad. Unusual a little
bit unusual. You get a downward sloping your curve where
the longer maturities have lower interest rates. What does that
tell you, Well, the treasure market, that's a big money.
You know, I used to work for a primary dealer,
were one of the one is authorized to deal directly
with the Fed. They're only about twenty banks with that status,
so you talk to the Fed every day. A downward
sloping your curve and this is where again the big
the big money kind of sets this the market as says,
this tells you that a recession is coming, and you know,
how do you enjoy that inference? Well, let's say short
term interist rates are four percent and longer term interistrates
are three percent. Were actually the actual numbers now are
close to five and four. So but you said, well,
do you I'll take a four percent coupon four percent
yield of maturity in a ten year note, because that's
going to look really sweet a couple of years from
now when interest rates are one and a half, when
the recession kicks in and interest rate collapse, the high
coupon is going to look very attractive. Number one, number
two botto math one oh one is kind of countertuitive.
But when interest rates go down, prices go up, and
when interest rates go up, prices go down. So if
you believe recession is coming and interst rates are coming down,
you'll lock in the higher coupon now, and when interest
rates do come down, you'll have capital gains on that note.
So it's a really attractive trade. So but meanwhile, back
here in the in the short end of the curve,
thirty day bills or for you know, three three month
bills or six month bills or whatever. That really is
much more subject to Federal Reserve control. It's about the
only thing they control. This this idea that the Fed
can control long term rates by manipulating short term rates,
because this is just the you know, the value of
a strip of short term rates. Well, that's all nonsense. Maths,
the theory. You can do the math, but that's all nonsense.
So so the point being, when you have a downward
sloping your curve, that's a sign that the recession is coming.
People are bidding for those intermediate term securities and pushing
the right down a little bit, but it's gonna look
real good when they're in one second.
Speaker 3: Sorry, is that a sign of the recession is coming
or is it a sign that people think a recession
is coming? Well?
Speaker 4: People, but the people are the biggest institutions in the world.
This curve is set by sovereign wealth funds, endowments, pension funds,
insurance companies, the players in that market. It's not that
they're infallible, but they are. It's a it's a basically
distillation of all the big money in the world. Kind
of saying something to you is so you should you
should kind of just not the math is simple. The
YO curve is simple. Look up, but you have to
know what it means.
Speaker 1: Right and where we are now is now it's kind
of flattening, and that's that means the recession is here.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much
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