1 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:21,039 Speaker 1: All right, hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune trip 2 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,679 Cast for Tuesday, February twenty fourth. We are a week 3 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:30,039 out from election day, and I am Matthew Watkins, editor 4 00:00:30,079 --> 00:00:33,359 in chief of the Texas Tribune, joined as usual by 5 00:00:33,439 --> 00:00:35,359 Law and Course Reporter Eleanor Klibanoff. 6 00:00:35,359 --> 00:00:37,439 Speaker 2: Hello, Eleanor, law and Politics. 7 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,759 Speaker 3: Every time, longtime fans of the trip cast will know 8 00:00:41,759 --> 00:00:44,799 that Matthew has never once gotten my title correct despite 9 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,240 being my boss, Law and Politics reporter, Thank you for 10 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:48,560 having me. 11 00:00:48,679 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: Yes, great to see you again, Law and Course Reporter 12 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:56,600 Eleanor Clibanoff. All right, and we are joined today by 13 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:01,880 two distinguished guests, one from the left, one from the right, 14 00:01:02,079 --> 00:01:05,040 but not based on how are they arranged on stage, 15 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,000 we have first closest to me, former State Representative of 16 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,920 Jason Vialba, Republican from Dallas, who is now CEO of 17 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,040 the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation. 18 00:01:14,439 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 2: Jason, thank you for being here. 19 00:01:15,719 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: It's wonderful to be here. I'm looking forward to the 20 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:19,840 Armadillo Races soon. 21 00:01:20,359 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 5: Great to be back. 22 00:01:21,359 --> 00:01:22,599 Speaker 2: That's great, that sounds great. 23 00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: And we also have Luke Warford, a political strategist based 24 00:01:25,439 --> 00:01:29,719 in Austin, founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund 25 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,040 and director of Texas Public Opinion Research. 26 00:01:32,159 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 2: Welcome, Luke, good to be here, Thanks for having me. 27 00:01:34,359 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 1: Yes, and I apologize for getting both of their titles correct. 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 2: I'm also not law in politics report Alan arkdec Yes. Yes, Okay. 29 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: So I can't believe I'm going to say this, but 30 00:01:44,439 --> 00:01:48,359 I want to start with the democratic race first. It's 31 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,640 not often we do that here in Texas, but I 32 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,359 think it has earned it this time. It has been 33 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,959 I was actually texting with Tribune co founder Ross Rams 34 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,439 last night trying to ask him. I asked him to 35 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,280 fill in the blank, this is the most interesting Democratic 36 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:09,039 primary in Texas since when anyone want to guess what 37 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:14,759 he said, ever. 38 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 4: At least since Anne Richards back in the eighties. 39 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: So that's interesting because I went with nineteen ninety, which 40 00:02:20,039 --> 00:02:24,479 was when Anne Richards was up against two other statewide candidates. 41 00:02:24,599 --> 00:02:28,159 He suggested, I say two thousand and two, which was 42 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,840 you may remember the Dream Team. Ron Kirk, I believe, 43 00:02:32,879 --> 00:02:35,360 ended up being the candidate for Senate that year, going 44 00:02:35,439 --> 00:02:38,520 up against a handful of other high profile candidates, including 45 00:02:38,599 --> 00:02:39,599 Victor Morales. 46 00:02:39,719 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: Who do you know who that is? 47 00:02:41,319 --> 00:02:45,719 Speaker 1: I'll give so Victor Morales was also loss. 48 00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:47,439 Speaker 2: Yea. 49 00:02:47,719 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: He was a high school teacher I think based in Houston, 50 00:02:50,479 --> 00:02:56,240 and his students essentially like dared him to run for Senate. 51 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,919 This is back in the nineties, and he shocked every 52 00:03:00,199 --> 00:03:04,080 one traveling around the state in his pickup truck campaigning, 53 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:08,199 shocked everyone by beating some you know, former statewide elected 54 00:03:08,199 --> 00:03:11,280 officials in the primary with fifty one percent of the vote. 55 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,919 Became sort of the nineteen nineties version of like a 56 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,840 sort of like national viral Democratic sensation, only to then 57 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,000 lose in the general election. And then he ran again 58 00:03:23,039 --> 00:03:25,840 in two thousand and two, and so you know, we'll see. 59 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: Politics used to be fun, used to be a nominor 60 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,120 high school teacher to be a senator Senate candidate. 61 00:03:32,599 --> 00:03:35,599 Speaker 1: But the twenty twenty six primary has been what I 62 00:03:35,639 --> 00:03:38,719 would argue sort of the viral Democratic primary. You know, 63 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,560 you have James Tallerico, a state representative with a sort 64 00:03:42,599 --> 00:03:47,560 of unparalleled amount of Instagram and social media followers. Jasmine Crockett, 65 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:51,840 of course, you know, has gone viral many times for her, 66 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:55,800 you know, confrontational tactics in the House, particularly with Marjorie 67 00:03:55,800 --> 00:04:00,520 Taylor Green. And then we had the most viral of 68 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,680 the campaign, The Monday night before election Day, starts when 69 00:04:04,759 --> 00:04:08,319 Stephen Colbert goes on his show and blasts his employers, 70 00:04:08,599 --> 00:04:11,400 saying they banned him from airing an interview with tell Rico, 71 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,560 encouraging his viewers to go on the YouTube page to watch, 72 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:21,360 and that interview over eighty five million views so far 73 00:04:21,639 --> 00:04:25,399 on YouTube and socials and everything like that. 74 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 5: Proving yet again the strikesand effect. 75 00:04:27,399 --> 00:04:31,639 Speaker 1: Right exactly exactly, Luke, I want to start with you 76 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,759 just sort of give me your lay of the land 77 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,959 of this race right now and where you think we 78 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:40,720 stand a week out. 79 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:43,959 Speaker 6: Yeah, no, thank you so much, and it's great to 80 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:45,240 be here. 81 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:46,079 Speaker 2: Where to start? 82 00:04:46,439 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 6: I mean, I think the most important thing is that 83 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:51,959 we're a week out right, and I think folks who 84 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,800 have been following this race over the last few weeks, 85 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,160 in particular, the temperature has turned off a little bit. 86 00:04:57,199 --> 00:05:01,120 I think we'll obviously talk about that and we're I'm 87 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:04,199 personally very much looking forward to getting through the primary 88 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,839 and having a nominee and looking forward to November. I 89 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,879 think when you think about Congress from Crockett and Representative 90 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:17,040 Tall Rico, the Colbert moment like really brings to focus. 91 00:05:17,079 --> 00:05:18,839 I think one of the most important things for any 92 00:05:18,879 --> 00:05:22,040 candidate in politics in twenty twenty six, not just here 93 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,360 in Texas but across the country, And that's how good 94 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,600 are you at getting attention? And I would actually argue, 95 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,480 you know, to disagree with Ross's point about two thousand 96 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,680 and two, like we're in a totally different information ecosystem 97 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,040 than we were then. And I think the idea that 98 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,639 a clip like this Colbert clip could get eighty five 99 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,959 million views, the idea that both Jasmine Crockett and James 100 00:05:46,959 --> 00:05:51,600 tallerco are household names across the country in people for 101 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,800 people who follow democratic politics, Like, we're in a different 102 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,639 moment right now, and you've got two candidates who are 103 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,879 just incredibly effective at getting attention. 104 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,439 Speaker 4: And clearly what we're seeing from those two candidates being 105 00:06:04,519 --> 00:06:09,680 so robust as candidates that it's really driving turnout. If 106 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,519 you look at the early numbers from turnout from week one, 107 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,560 the Democrats now are at one hundred and two percent 108 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,319 of what they were in twenty twenty four I believe 109 00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:21,720 it is or twenty twenty two, So they are now 110 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,879 exceeding in the first week the total turnout that they 111 00:06:24,959 --> 00:06:29,399 had in twenty twenty two, whilst the Republicans remained at 112 00:06:29,399 --> 00:06:33,639 about forty three percent fifty percent where they were before. 113 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 5: So I think you're seeing real interest. 114 00:06:37,519 --> 00:06:40,879 Speaker 4: In that race, and it's really driving people to the polls. 115 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: Early Owner we talked about this a couple of weeks ago, 116 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,920 this race and the virality of it, right, And one 117 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,399 of the things that sort of came up was, you know, 118 00:06:51,759 --> 00:06:56,040 one of the ways that you get attention these days 119 00:06:56,079 --> 00:06:59,759 is by stoking outrage, right, And it was this sort 120 00:06:59,759 --> 00:07:03,360 of interesting experiment because it seems like Tallerico, you know, 121 00:07:04,079 --> 00:07:07,639 is trying to sort of get that attention without sort 122 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:12,160 of lighting the fire under people, and you know, would 123 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,360 that work? And it turns out the way it worked 124 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:20,399 was he relied on Stephen Colbert. Well, but it's been 125 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,160 working though, right, Like he's I just like to zoom 126 00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:27,759 out right, Like You've got a state rep from Texas 127 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,680 that like has no business being known all across the country, 128 00:07:31,879 --> 00:07:35,000 and he's one of the most effective social media communicators 129 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,279 in the entire party. Right He's raising more money and 130 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,759 getting more views than people who are sitting United States 131 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,560 senators right now. So I just I just think that's 132 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,040 like really special and unique, and it's not just the 133 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,120 Colbert moment, it's like his team's preparation for it and 134 00:07:51,199 --> 00:07:52,600 all the work that led into it. 135 00:07:52,839 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 4: And he's truly the anti rage candidate, right, I mean, 136 00:07:55,839 --> 00:07:59,680 talks about the love of Jesus and religion and politics. 137 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,920 He's known on the House floor for being a very 138 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,680 articulate person who really thinks deeply about issues that impact 139 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,399 all Texans, and that is something that's unique. I mean, 140 00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:13,319 for so long we've been trapped in the rhetoric bubble, 141 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:16,000 the rage machine. You know, the Republicans have done an 142 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,480 amazing job of truly harnessing and leveraging that rage for 143 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,759 everything from news clicks to Fox Fox News hits, and 144 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,759 that's been a popular recipe. But this is the guy 145 00:08:28,759 --> 00:08:31,800 that comes and talks about the kinds of things that 146 00:08:31,839 --> 00:08:34,840 we might have talked about fifteen, twenty years ago, and 147 00:08:34,879 --> 00:08:37,799 he's resonating in a way I think that people have 148 00:08:38,399 --> 00:08:40,480 not seen in Texas in many, many years. 149 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 3: But I also say I think there are I think 150 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:44,799 that's true. I think he's like trying to find this 151 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,360 lane that is essentially like, I won't stoke the rage, 152 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,080 maybe some of my surrogates will stoke the rage, and 153 00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:56,320 I think that is a very you know, tricky thing 154 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,399 to navigate. And on the flip side, I think there 155 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,440 are a lot of Democrats who are like Reublicans, have 156 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,039 harnessed the rage machine. Let's harness the rage machine, you know, 157 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:07,120 like Jasmine Crockett's a fighter. Let's not you know, why 158 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:08,919 did democrats have to be peace and love? And what 159 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,720 did we say last week? Or God and good manners? Yeah, 160 00:09:12,799 --> 00:09:16,200 James Talery, go God and good manners. You know, you know, 161 00:09:16,399 --> 00:09:19,600 send a fighter to the Senate. So I think one 162 00:09:19,639 --> 00:09:21,200 of the things we will see from this is, you know, 163 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,639 what do Democrats want in terms of sort of a 164 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,399 response to the second Trump administration? 165 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:27,399 Speaker 2: But I do. 166 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: Think, I mean, among the four of us who care 167 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,720 deeply about the state legislature and pay a lot of 168 00:09:32,759 --> 00:09:35,799 attention to it, I think we sort of saw these 169 00:09:35,919 --> 00:09:40,919 two as sort of like equal figures and the imaginations 170 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,399 of Texans. But of course we are reminded, despite our 171 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,720 best efforts, that there are many people in Texas who 172 00:09:46,759 --> 00:09:49,080 really only pay attention to national politics, you know. 173 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,039 Speaker 3: And some who don't pay attention to politics at all exactly. 174 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: And it seemed like, I mean, you can correct me 175 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,320 if I'm wrongly, because I know you're you're in the polls, 176 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,080 but it seemed like if you looked at the polling 177 00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:00,679 kind of in the run up to the primary, that 178 00:10:00,919 --> 00:10:03,039 Crockett did have a bit of a sort of name 179 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,679 idea advantage and that people did know more about her. 180 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,919 And then this happens and suddenly both in Texas and 181 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:15,399 in nationally, James Salrico is a top five Google search 182 00:10:15,639 --> 00:10:18,399 which I checked the Texas Google searches, you know, to 183 00:10:18,399 --> 00:10:20,639 see what people are talking about, and it is never 184 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,720 it's never even really politicians. It's like you know, soccer 185 00:10:24,799 --> 00:10:28,559 games and you know, like things that they're caught exactly 186 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:35,080 well yeah, occasionally like yeah, and and so in that 187 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:37,440 regard to it, just it really got his name in 188 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,519 front of a lot of people. I think the question is, 189 00:10:40,399 --> 00:10:44,679 you know, is that a brief flash or or or 190 00:10:44,759 --> 00:10:47,320 is that a needle moving moment for him? 191 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,639 Speaker 4: And to follow one for that question for Luke, because 192 00:10:49,639 --> 00:10:52,000 I'm interested in Luke's perspective on this, how do you 193 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:56,759 juxtapost him versus a Beto right, who also seemed to 194 00:10:56,799 --> 00:10:58,919 tap into the zeitgeist to what was happening in the 195 00:10:59,000 --> 00:10:59,720 rural areas. 196 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 5: How is tol Rico different and. 197 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 4: Can he eke out that additional two percent that would 198 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,200 be necessary in order to win at the state wide level. 199 00:11:10,279 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so there's a lot there. 200 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 6: I mean, I think I'll start with, you know, the 201 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:21,519 Colbert moment, Tylerico going on Rogan. Like, I do think 202 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,799 there is a really important distinction here, right between the 203 00:11:23,799 --> 00:11:26,279 people who are listening to this podcast and sort of 204 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,600 voters across Texas and then even you know, the difference 205 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,919 between your general election voter and a primary voter who's 206 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,000 like the primary voters paying more attention. I do think 207 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,240 the Colbert moment broke out of the echo chamber, right, 208 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,639 and that's incredibly hard to do, right, It's not just 209 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,399 getting attention, it's who you're getting attention from. And clearly 210 00:11:46,039 --> 00:11:49,799 it broke out sort of into the stratosphere in the 211 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,720 same way that I think the Joe Rogan interview did 212 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,960 right where. And obviously this is anecdotal, but it's a 213 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,759 time when people I know who don't follow politics really 214 00:11:59,799 --> 00:12:02,039 are sending me the clip and it's like, okay, this 215 00:12:02,159 --> 00:12:05,159 is clearly this has made it into their algorithms. So 216 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,720 I think, like definitely, that moment is sort of like 217 00:12:08,919 --> 00:12:12,639 set apart. I do think those moments, while important in 218 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,240 a primary, are actually more important and in general, right, 219 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,600 because primary voters tend to be more tuned into what's 220 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:24,120 happening and higher information, And so I think for either candidate, 221 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:25,559 it's going to be about whether or not they're going 222 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,639 to be able to generate things like that going forward. 223 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,559 And then Teleanor's question about like what do Democratic primary 224 00:12:31,639 --> 00:12:35,240 voters want? We've pulled this a lot, right, and they 225 00:12:35,279 --> 00:12:39,039 want someone who is a fighter, and they have different 226 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,279 ideas about what that means to be a fighter, which 227 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,240 is happy to go into. But then they also want 228 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,559 somebody who's electable, and they have very different ideas about 229 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,080 who is electable, right, Like Tallerico's supporters think tall Rico 230 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,840 is more electable, but Crockett supporters think she is more 231 00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:55,039 electable as well. She's got this huge profile. I mean, 232 00:12:55,039 --> 00:12:59,440 she's also pretty well known even outside of politics. Right 233 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,639 to your to your point, Matthew, she started with this 234 00:13:02,159 --> 00:13:05,120 like in a primary, name ID is huge, right, And 235 00:13:05,159 --> 00:13:07,360 she started with this huge name I D lead And 236 00:13:07,399 --> 00:13:10,440 you've seen tall Ico, you know, creep up, creep up, 237 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,840 creep up, and get closer to parody over the course 238 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,480 of the race. But I think one of the biggest 239 00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:17,720 questions is like, is there enough time and is what's gonna, 240 00:13:17,759 --> 00:13:19,679 you know, happen by next Tuesday? 241 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,279 Speaker 1: Okay, Eleanor I've warned you about my hot take on 242 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,000 this topic, and it's this was all. 243 00:13:25,039 --> 00:13:27,399 Speaker 3: This entire event was just a set up so he 244 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,840 can give his hot take on the CBS moment. 245 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 2: So you know, of course, the what happened. 246 00:13:32,399 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: I know everyone knows this, but you know, Stephen Colbert 247 00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,120 essentially comes on and says, I wanted to have James 248 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:40,960 Tellerico on my show. CBS comes in and says that 249 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:43,320 we can't do this because the FCC won't allow it. 250 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,559 You need to give equal time to the candidates. Of course, 251 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:52,639 the background here is that the Colbert's show is over 252 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,639 the public airwaves, right, and there is a reason that 253 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,919 the public airwaves are regulated differently than than other types 254 00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:02,799 of media, because you essentially have to get a license 255 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,000 to obtain them, and there's a limited you can only 256 00:14:05,039 --> 00:14:08,759 give out a limited number of licenses or else the 257 00:14:08,799 --> 00:14:12,679 whole broadcast system falls apart, and we as a country 258 00:14:12,919 --> 00:14:16,519 have made a decision that you should not use those 259 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:23,720 to explicitly advance individual candidates or anything like that. James Tellerico, 260 00:14:23,879 --> 00:14:26,399 you know, in this race, he's a high profile politician. 261 00:14:26,559 --> 00:14:28,840 But Colbert wants to have him on his show the 262 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:34,639 Monday night before early voting, right, tell Rego had not 263 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,879 had any kind of like major national moment. What other 264 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,879 reason is there to have him on your show the 265 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,840 night before people start voting except to help his campaign, 266 00:14:46,279 --> 00:14:50,200 to give him an advantage, and to sort of maybe 267 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,039 if you're not explicitly endorsing him, at least get him 268 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,360 in front of an audience that might not normally see 269 00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:59,240 him during the most important time to do that. I mean, 270 00:15:00,759 --> 00:15:02,720 I'm going to ask you this is as the Republican, 271 00:15:02,879 --> 00:15:06,159 Like I understand that there's some criticism this, you know, 272 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,720 is does the does the FCC under Trump regulate you know, 273 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:11,960 talk radio and the way it should and all different 274 00:15:12,039 --> 00:15:15,879 kinds of things, But like, under the system that we 275 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:19,360 have created, is this not a violation of equal time? 276 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:24,120 Is this a someone using the public airwaves to put 277 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:25,879 their finger on the scale here. 278 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 4: Well, you could certainly argue that, but there is case 279 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,519 law on this, right, I mean, there is a history 280 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,799 and a precedent that in instances where you have a 281 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,600 talk show like The View, or you have Colbert or 282 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,559 one of the other nightly talk shows, having someone on 283 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:43,120 who is a personality and a candidate does not necessarily 284 00:15:43,159 --> 00:15:45,799 mean that you have to give equal time. It's not 285 00:15:45,919 --> 00:15:48,639 that rigid. There are some contours you have to be 286 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,200 aware of. But I mean we've seen historically a number 287 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,039 of candidates come on without equal time, I mean during 288 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:59,440 presidential candidates, during other candidates. So I think you could 289 00:15:59,639 --> 00:16:02,240 look at the case law and suggest that it's not 290 00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:02,840 a violation. 291 00:16:02,919 --> 00:16:06,519 Speaker 5: Now that being said, the timing is unique, right, I mean, 292 00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:08,519 here we are. That's a good word for it in 293 00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:10,399 this moment. 294 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 4: But I as Luke points out, Tolerico is unique. He 295 00:16:16,639 --> 00:16:19,639 is very unique and what he stands for, he's different. 296 00:16:20,039 --> 00:16:24,480 He's a media personality as per Google and Joe Rogan 297 00:16:24,519 --> 00:16:28,039 and everything. So just being a candidate does that sell 298 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:32,720 him short? Now, if I were if I were you know, Crockett, 299 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,399 I would be very angry about this. Certainly she wants 300 00:16:35,399 --> 00:16:38,519 her time as well. I think Republicans probably don't do 301 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,679 as well on Colberts as the Democrats do, and so 302 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,919 they're probably not trying to get on there. But they've 303 00:16:44,919 --> 00:16:48,759 been all over the airways on Mark Davis up in 304 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,240 North Texas and Michael Barry down Houston, et cetera. And 305 00:16:52,639 --> 00:16:54,159 so sometimes you don't see that. 306 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 5: So I don't think. 307 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 4: It's as big of an issue legally or from the 308 00:16:59,399 --> 00:17:02,879 FCC's perspective as one might think. But I can certainly 309 00:17:02,919 --> 00:17:05,359 see why it might ruffle some feathers. 310 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 6: I would just add I agree with that, and would 311 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,039 just add that it like it was clearly a gift 312 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,319 to the tall Rico campaign like that, you know, you 313 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:18,759 couldn't manufacture that. I also just wouldn't put it past 314 00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:21,559 like Colbert's a genius, right, Like I wouldn't put it 315 00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:26,559 back past him having like design this right set it 316 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,119 up as this conflict, and he knew exactly what he 317 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,680 was going to do, and he knew exactly how it 318 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,599 was going to play out. And maybe it wasn't to 319 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,920 help tall Ico. Maybe it was just to help his 320 00:17:35,039 --> 00:17:37,559 show and himself and that and that, you know, would 321 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:39,119 not be that surprising to me either. 322 00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:41,759 Speaker 3: Like he's a fellow card carrying member of the God 323 00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:43,920 and Good Manners Club. So I do feel like, you know, 324 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,920 it's not shocking that yeah, but it's an interesting I mean, 325 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,759 it is suddenly it's like, you know, everyone suddenly became 326 00:17:49,799 --> 00:17:53,000 an expert in the FCC equal time right rule. 327 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 6: I do think it is important though, to to just 328 00:17:56,279 --> 00:17:59,960 like note, right, like what happened. Obviously, it went viral 329 00:18:00,319 --> 00:18:02,759 in a way that you couldn't have predicted, but like 330 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:07,039 his campaign, he has spent years and years and years 331 00:18:07,079 --> 00:18:11,559 developing the social media profile, the grassroots fundraising list that 332 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,440 you know, they raised two and a half million dollars 333 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,119 in the twenty four hours after this happened. That's because 334 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,680 he had this massive fundraising list built, like you can't 335 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,799 not every candidate would have been able to take advantage 336 00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:24,480 of that in the same way that he did. So 337 00:18:24,519 --> 00:18:27,799 I just think it's also, like, you know, whatever the 338 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,920 quote is, luck is when preparation meets opportunity or whatever 339 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,680 like that. There's some I think we just got to, 340 00:18:33,759 --> 00:18:35,160 you know, pay attention to both sides of it. 341 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:35,319 Speaker 2: Here. 342 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,839 Speaker 1: You briefly mentioned the concept of electability, which is a 343 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,200 very sensitive topic in this race, right, and there are 344 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:48,640 a lot of Crockett supporters who are quite offended by that. 345 00:18:48,799 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 2: Right. 346 00:18:49,079 --> 00:18:53,799 Speaker 1: They argue that the electability standard for a white man 347 00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:57,440 is different than for a black woman, and argue that 348 00:18:57,519 --> 00:19:01,200 some of that is is coded an unfake and all 349 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:01,880 those other things. 350 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:02,640 Speaker 2: But I'm curious. 351 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,599 Speaker 1: You know, there is the question of who has the 352 00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:12,000 best chance of winning in the general election. I assume 353 00:19:12,079 --> 00:19:15,920 that you would like to see Republicans hold on to 354 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,559 that seat. Do you have a feeling of like, is 355 00:19:18,599 --> 00:19:24,960 there a better, you know, candidate for Republicans to be 356 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:25,759 facing there? 357 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,079 Speaker 4: Well, there certainly is, right, I mean, right now, in 358 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,000 the Republican primary, you've got three candidates, one of which 359 00:19:33,039 --> 00:19:37,440 as an establishment candidate and Senator Cornyn, who obviously received 360 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:42,680 all the support of the larger establishment and the you know, 361 00:19:42,759 --> 00:19:45,599 the old blue blood Republicans they want to see him. 362 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,920 He would obviously be the most electable from the Republican standpoint. Unfortunately, 363 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,119 that's not where the grass roots and the primary voters 364 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,960 in Texas stand. They're very much aligned. 365 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 5: With kN Paxton. 366 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,039 Speaker 4: Regardless of the headwinds that he faces, the how shall 367 00:20:01,079 --> 00:20:05,920 we say more delicate issues that he has been faced with, 368 00:20:06,559 --> 00:20:10,720 he still seems to be odds on favorite to win, right, So, 369 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,119 you know, I think that gives the Democrats a real 370 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,640 advantage from their perspective. So who do they want against him? 371 00:20:17,039 --> 00:20:21,640 You know, Crockett, for all of her name identification, for 372 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:27,400 her reputation as a fighter, for her ability to really 373 00:20:27,519 --> 00:20:31,400 just resonate with the grassroots of the Democrats, unfortunately made 374 00:20:31,559 --> 00:20:37,359 a very unforced, problematic, unforced error in the very beginning 375 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,680 of her campaign publicly, and that was that she made 376 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,799 a statement that did not go well with Hispanic voters 377 00:20:45,799 --> 00:20:50,359 in Texas. Right, she talks about African American voters, and 378 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,799 they're obviously strongly behind her based on the polls we've seen, 379 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,440 but then she essentially denigrated Latina's in a way that 380 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,160 really did not go well with the Hispanic community, either 381 00:21:02,279 --> 00:21:06,240 right or left, particularly among Democrats, and so that's. 382 00:21:06,039 --> 00:21:07,599 Speaker 5: Going to be an issue for her. 383 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 4: You know, there's been a tremendous amount of talk recently 384 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,880 about how Hispanics have moved over closer to the Republican 385 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,640 side of things. In twenty twenty four, fifty five percent 386 00:21:18,799 --> 00:21:21,839 of Latinos in Texas voted for Trump. But we've seen 387 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:27,319 a market erosion in that over the last year, right, 388 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:32,440 driven primarily by affordability and economic issues, but unquestionably the 389 00:21:32,799 --> 00:21:37,200 aggressive tactics of ICE have begun to really dig into 390 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:42,599 the support that Latinos were showing for Republicans. Now they're 391 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:47,200 moving back to their original home of the Democratic Party, 392 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:51,680 and they are not They are not happy with Crockett. 393 00:21:51,759 --> 00:21:53,039 Speaker 5: And I think on the. 394 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 4: Other side, Tola Rico has been appealing to them, right, 395 00:21:57,559 --> 00:22:02,599 talking about affordability, talking about really right. Hispanics generally are 396 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,519 a religious people, right, and so I think that's really 397 00:22:06,559 --> 00:22:07,319 made a difference. 398 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,279 Speaker 5: And so I think long story short, if you're if 399 00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:12,839 you're whoever. 400 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 4: Wins in the Democratic side, you want to see Paxton 401 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,559 because I think he's the weaker candidate against both of those. 402 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,240 And I think Tala Rico has a much stronger appeal 403 00:22:21,759 --> 00:22:25,599 to a general Texas elector and may you know, in 404 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,960 the general U than Crockett will. 405 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 1: It feels like the Republican side of this race has 406 00:22:32,559 --> 00:22:34,200 just been a little bit more. 407 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 2: Stable for a lack of a. 408 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: Better term, and just like there hasn't been much that 409 00:22:40,759 --> 00:22:44,519 has shaken up the dynamic of this primary from now 410 00:22:44,599 --> 00:22:48,599 to you know, whenever we started hearing in Ken Paxton. 411 00:22:48,599 --> 00:22:50,559 Speaker 3: Potentially the only race pack the only thing Ken Pax 412 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,000 has ever been involved in, Like that's more stable than 413 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,799 anything else going on. But yeah, it's been I think 414 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,119 followed a little bit more of like the storyline that 415 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,480 we knew when he first started even to talking about 416 00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:03,000 running is sort of still the storyline now, even with 417 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,640 Wesley Hunt entering the race, even with like some of 418 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,720 these surprises, I think everyone is sort of playing their 419 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,960 anticipated roles clear through to the end. 420 00:23:12,759 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 4: You know, I served with Ken Paxton in the legislature, 421 00:23:15,759 --> 00:23:18,519 and I was always surprised at his ability to really 422 00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:24,440 tap into that primary voter elect or right, I mean, 423 00:23:24,519 --> 00:23:28,880 And regardless of what scandals may have followed him into 424 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,079 the legislature and during that time, and then coupled with 425 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:37,480 the impeachment and then add on the infidelity, nothing seems 426 00:23:37,519 --> 00:23:42,079 to impact his ability to resonate with that community of voters, 427 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,799 and so he maintains a real strength that I always 428 00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:50,319 found surprising. There was a reason I'm unelected right in 429 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,000 a primary because I did not resonate with that same 430 00:23:53,039 --> 00:23:56,599 type of voter. But he really does seem to have 431 00:23:56,759 --> 00:24:00,880 some strength among them. We tested him at the Policy 432 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,799 Foundation several years back, and he continues to show really 433 00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:09,079 strong numbers against establishment Republicans, especially in Cornyn. 434 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 5: You know, for all he's done for this. 435 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,519 Speaker 4: Great state of Texas, and for his great experience and 436 00:24:14,599 --> 00:24:18,920 his wonderful stellar resume, you know, he always will have 437 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,559 to face that label of being establishment and Republican party 438 00:24:22,599 --> 00:24:27,160 politics today, you know, an establishment Republican is as truly 439 00:24:27,599 --> 00:24:31,160 not no longer wanted, you know, as a candidate in 440 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,480 these kind of major races. 441 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,319 Speaker 3: And that's why I'm I'm always obviously we'll see you 442 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,519 know in a couple weeks and then in November, but 443 00:24:37,559 --> 00:24:41,039 skeptical about the idea that Ken Paxton is vulnerable to Democrats. 444 00:24:41,039 --> 00:24:44,119 I think, you know, in a he's won statewide elections 445 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,400 while facing you know, a lot more headwinds. I mean, 446 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,599 with the exception of his divorce, he's shaken off most 447 00:24:50,599 --> 00:24:54,559 of his legal baggage, and so I think it will 448 00:24:54,559 --> 00:24:57,440 be cureous. It'll be interesting to see, you know. Like 449 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,680 you said, I think grassroots voters really really like him 450 00:25:01,039 --> 00:25:04,319 and are a very motivated group of voters. And then 451 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:06,160 I don't know that he's going to get that many 452 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,000 crossover voters in the general election. 453 00:25:08,799 --> 00:25:11,839 Speaker 4: I think a general election voter is much different than 454 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,480 the modern Republican primary voter. The modern Republican primary voter 455 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,680 is a distilled component of what we used to call 456 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,359 the Tea Party, and now it's truly trump Ism, right. 457 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,880 I mean, there is no Republican Party, There's only the 458 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,759 Trump Party. And if you are not beholden to the 459 00:25:29,799 --> 00:25:34,200 Trump Party, a populist nativist, then you're not going to 460 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,880 appeal to a Republican Party primary voter that is much 461 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:43,240 different than the general electorate that we're seeing develop in Texas, 462 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:47,279 primarily from carpetbagers who've come in from California, and also 463 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,119 the emergence of the strength of the Hispanic voter. 464 00:25:51,279 --> 00:25:52,559 Speaker 5: Right, the Hispanic voter. 465 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,599 Speaker 4: Today, we still always call them the sleeping Giant. They're 466 00:25:55,759 --> 00:25:59,400 wide awake in Texas today and they are the swing 467 00:25:59,559 --> 00:26:02,480 vote and they can be won by either side, right, 468 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,160 And I think Paxston is going to struggle, uh with 469 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,759 the with the Hispanic vote, and I think Tyala Rico 470 00:26:08,839 --> 00:26:09,519 does a good job. 471 00:26:09,559 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 5: It's going to be quite a contest. I mean, Beto 472 00:26:12,079 --> 00:26:12,960 was within. 473 00:26:13,079 --> 00:26:16,759 Speaker 4: A whisker of taking out Ted Cruz and a cycle 474 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,599 much like this times of change. It's a different, like 475 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,960 you say, can ecosystem media wise, and the candidates are different, 476 00:26:25,079 --> 00:26:29,000 and Paxton will have some of the same baggage that 477 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,640 Ted Cruz had just the likability factor and Tyla Rico 478 00:26:32,799 --> 00:26:34,799 much like Beta, which is why I ask that question. 479 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,119 I think appeals to this younger voter that is showing 480 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,960 up with the polls now that we haven't really seen since. 481 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,799 Speaker 6: Beto Well, and I just think that, you know, like 482 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:49,000 we're all kind of taking and taking for you know, 483 00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:51,440 kind of assuming Ken Paxon's gonna winer he's the front runner, 484 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,559 but that's and he is the front runner. But that's 485 00:26:55,599 --> 00:26:58,440 like incredibly if you look at center races across the country, 486 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,000 like that, you've got incumbent like John Cornyn who's going 487 00:27:02,079 --> 00:27:04,680 to have seventy or eighty million dollars spent on his 488 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,039 behalf and he might finish third in the Republican primary. Like, 489 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,839 I think that's really significant, right, And I think it 490 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,400 speaks to this fight that is happening within the Republican 491 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,240 Party and in particular the Republican Party of Texas, where 492 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,160 like it's not super clear, like I think there's a 493 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,079 battle happening for the identity of what it means to 494 00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:26,240 be a Republican, for the identity of what it means 495 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,359 to be a Texas Republican. And we're going to see 496 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:33,799 how that plays out like these forces as Paxton of 497 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:36,839 course is going to do really well with the magabase. 498 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:38,720 But I think the question is how do you get 499 00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:43,079 to fifty percent plus one in November? And to Eleanor's point, 500 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,720 like it's who knows if this is going to be 501 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,599 a year like twenty eighteen, right, but you've got Trump 502 00:27:50,599 --> 00:27:53,599 in the White House. It's you know, a midterm. It's 503 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,839 always the year where Democrats, the opposite party, does the best. 504 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,880 People are frustrated with the economy, You've got, you know, 505 00:28:01,519 --> 00:28:04,880 a pretty contentious Republican primary. I think those are the 506 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,000 if you were to ask me, like what factors would 507 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,279 you want to exist for Democrats to you know, have 508 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,680 a shot, not like you know, not like a fifty 509 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,400 percent shot, but like a shot. It would be how 510 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:17,640 things are shaping up this year? 511 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,599 Speaker 4: Well, you know, this civil war within the Republican Party 512 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,640 has been fought and MAGA has won overwhelmingly. There is 513 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:30,160 no longer a battle between moderate Republicans, TEA Party Republicans, 514 00:28:30,319 --> 00:28:33,920 MAGA Republicans. I mean, MAGA has won this battle. So 515 00:28:34,039 --> 00:28:36,440 in a primary, that's who is going That's who you 516 00:28:36,519 --> 00:28:39,079 have to appeal to right now. In a general that's 517 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:40,720 much different, and I think we're going to see all 518 00:28:40,759 --> 00:28:42,759 that plays out. And I do believe that the general 519 00:28:42,799 --> 00:28:46,119 electorate has changed dramatically even since. 520 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 5: Twenty twenty two. 521 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 2: I had an interesting experience last night. I was up 522 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:51,000 in Georgetown. 523 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,559 Speaker 1: This group Project Unity had pulled together a dinner that 524 00:28:54,599 --> 00:28:57,559 they call Together We Dine, and it's pulling people from 525 00:28:57,559 --> 00:29:00,359 across the political spectrum to kind of come together sit 526 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,440 around a table for like a facilitated conversation with the 527 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,960 goal of like addressing some of the division that we face. 528 00:29:09,079 --> 00:29:12,039 And you know, it's a group of sort of civic leaders, 529 00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:15,000 people may be inclined to participate in that kind of conversation. 530 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,200 And we got about halfway through the conversation and this 531 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,440 woman sitting next to me says, basically, you know, well, 532 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,480 I was all about unity until like a couple of 533 00:29:22,519 --> 00:29:24,880 years ago, and now I sort of think, like, I 534 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,839 don't think this is working anymore. And we got to 535 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,640 go like do something wild here, and then other people 536 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:30,920 are on the table were like, you know what, I 537 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,160 actually agree with that too, And I was like, if 538 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,119 the like nice church ladies at this like unity event 539 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,920 that I'm sitting at are saying this like, we are 540 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:45,079 in a very interesting world right now, and that sort 541 00:29:45,079 --> 00:29:49,920 of like run to the middle attitude in these primaries 542 00:29:50,039 --> 00:29:52,240 is just I'm not sure how much interest there. 543 00:29:52,119 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 2: Is in the electorate for that kind of message. 544 00:29:54,839 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 3: Right now, right, I mean, And that's why John Cornyn 545 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,960 is not running as like you know, oh, I'm a 546 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,480 bridge builder, I've done on work across the aisle. He's 547 00:30:01,559 --> 00:30:03,880 running as you know, I'm Trump's man, and that's why 548 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,039 you should pick me, which is you know. 549 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 4: In the Ags race, May's Middleton, you know, Maga Middleton. 550 00:30:10,519 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 7: Right, I'm trying. I'm always trying to talk about the Ages race. 551 00:30:13,039 --> 00:30:14,319 Speaker 6: How far to the right can you go? But I 552 00:30:14,319 --> 00:30:18,000 think it comes back to talking about winning a primary 553 00:30:18,079 --> 00:30:21,440 versus winning a general. And you know, whoever becomes the 554 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,039 Republican nominee, their job in the general is different than 555 00:30:25,079 --> 00:30:27,519 the Democrats, right, They've won for thirty years, and so 556 00:30:27,599 --> 00:30:30,359 I think on the Democratic side, it's like, how do 557 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:35,839 you create the permission structure for independence modern Republicans, disaffected 558 00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:38,599 Republicans to come over and vote for a Democrat when 559 00:30:38,599 --> 00:30:42,279 they haven't before. And you know, you can again kind 560 00:30:42,279 --> 00:30:46,200 of see a world where Ken Paxton, who you know, 561 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:50,119 we could talk for hours about everything he's done where 562 00:30:50,279 --> 00:30:53,200 maybe they vote for the Democrat. Maybe people actually do that, 563 00:30:53,839 --> 00:30:56,519 and so I think, you know, there's a it's certainly 564 00:30:56,559 --> 00:30:58,559 not going to be boring this, No, member. 565 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 2: Let's talk about turnout a little bit. 566 00:31:00,079 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 1: You touched on it some Through six days of early voting, 567 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:11,039 Republicans five and twenty eight thousand Republicans voted. Through six 568 00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:15,400 days of early voting, six hundred and nineteen thousand Democrats voted. 569 00:31:16,519 --> 00:31:19,880 Not often that you see more Democrats voting than Republicans. 570 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:20,319 Speaker 2: Attact this. 571 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,160 Speaker 1: I know there are so many caveats to this, including 572 00:31:23,319 --> 00:31:26,319 just the fact that Democrats seem more inclined to vote early. 573 00:31:28,559 --> 00:31:32,039 But and we sort of go through this every year 574 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,279 now where people like look at the early voting numbers 575 00:31:34,319 --> 00:31:38,240 and they're like, whoa man like Democrats like this really thing? 576 00:31:38,319 --> 00:31:42,400 And then it doesn't really tell us that much. Is 577 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,000 it different this year? 578 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,079 Speaker 4: Tell us There's a sage in Texas named Derek Ryan. 579 00:31:48,559 --> 00:31:51,359 Derek Ryan's data, I think is some of. 580 00:31:50,759 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 5: The best that you can look at. 581 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,319 Speaker 4: And what he's taught me over the last several cycles 582 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,519 is that early voting numbers are very. 583 00:31:58,279 --> 00:31:59,119 Speaker 5: Hard to read. 584 00:31:59,759 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 4: The leaves are sporadic, they're different. It's often driven by 585 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,480 personality of the race. There's all kinds of different factors 586 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,759 that go into it, and in the end it always 587 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:15,279 aligns right to where it always lands anyway. I do 588 00:32:15,359 --> 00:32:18,599 think though, that if you look anecdotally at the turnout 589 00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,079 that we're seeing right now and couple it with what 590 00:32:21,119 --> 00:32:25,920 we saw in SD nine recently, I think those two 591 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:31,759 factors combined suggests to you, somewhat dis positively, that there 592 00:32:31,839 --> 00:32:35,119 is much more enthusiasm right now among Democrats than there 593 00:32:35,119 --> 00:32:38,680 are Republicans. Right we saw a much higher turnout in 594 00:32:38,839 --> 00:32:41,880 SD nine among Democrats than we had before. That's a 595 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,000 Bellweather county. It looks a lot like the rest of Texas, 596 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,599 and Democrats overwhelmingly won that race, and not only that, 597 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:54,839 Republican crossover was happening too there, and then Hispanics of course, 598 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,400 went dramatically back to where they were before. I think 599 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:04,240 that with this turnout, coupled with the interesting races that 600 00:33:04,279 --> 00:33:08,839 we're seeing, suggests to me that the enthusiasm gap does 601 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,119 indeed exist. 602 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,039 Speaker 5: It will have an impact in. 603 00:33:13,039 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 4: The general election, and certainly will have an impact in 604 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:16,799 these primaries. 605 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,599 Speaker 3: We should just say Senate District nine in Terran County, 606 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,119 which was recently one in a special election by Democrat 607 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:22,880 Taylor Remot. 608 00:33:23,119 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, with a thirty one point shift, right, And 609 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:28,559 no one thinks that there's going to be a thirty 610 00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:31,440 one point shift in November, but it's certainly you know, 611 00:33:31,519 --> 00:33:34,480 we see data point after data point across the country, 612 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,799 but here in Texas that's like, Okay, this is probably 613 00:33:36,799 --> 00:33:38,279 going to be a pretty good year for Democrats. 614 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:39,319 Speaker 2: It's probably going to be a wave. 615 00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:43,319 Speaker 6: I think when we come back to the Democratic enthusiasm, 616 00:33:43,359 --> 00:33:47,279 Like enthusiasm is obviously good. We should not over read 617 00:33:47,319 --> 00:33:50,079 too much into the early voting data, obviously with all 618 00:33:50,079 --> 00:33:53,599 of the caveats that I agree with, but I do think, 619 00:33:53,839 --> 00:33:57,119 like some of what's happening, and this is this is 620 00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:01,000 true with early voting, this is true with how contentious 621 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,000 the race has gotten. 622 00:34:02,039 --> 00:34:02,759 Speaker 2: Honestly on the. 623 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,039 Speaker 6: Democratic side, like, I think there is a genuine hope 624 00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:10,320 and belief that whoever becomes the nominee might actually win 625 00:34:10,559 --> 00:34:15,480 in November, right, Like I think all of the structural 626 00:34:15,679 --> 00:34:18,760 data we have, everything, all the historical data we have, 627 00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,039 suggests this is probably going to be Democrats' best election 628 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,920 at least since twenty eighteen in Texas, and so people 629 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,760 are fighting, and they're excited, and they're you know, everything 630 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,039 that we're seeing happening, I think really is rooted in 631 00:34:32,079 --> 00:34:34,679 a belief that, like, oh, they might have a shot 632 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:35,480 in November. 633 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,119 Speaker 1: You mentioned Derek Ryan, I am among the religious readers 634 00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:43,239 of his daily voting reports, and I am going to 635 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,639 read off another stat that caught my eye that I 636 00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:50,000 am going to argue does mean more less for the 637 00:34:50,079 --> 00:34:52,280 general election, but for the primary. And I'm willing to 638 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,800 ask you too much smarter poll readers than I am, 639 00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:00,159 whether there's anything to that. And it's the percentage of 640 00:35:01,079 --> 00:35:05,840 voters based on primary history, right. He measures you know, 641 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,679 how many people have only voted in Republican primaries in 642 00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,360 the past, how many have voted only in Democratic primaries 643 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,119 in the past, how many have mixed, how many of 644 00:35:13,159 --> 00:35:15,800 first time general or only general election voters, and things 645 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,599 like that. In past years, it's been about seventy five 646 00:35:20,599 --> 00:35:24,760 percent in each party of the people voting are you know, 647 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:31,480 consistent voters of that party in private previous primaries. This year, 648 00:35:32,559 --> 00:35:37,039 eighty two percent of Republican primary voters are consistent historic 649 00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:42,840 primary Republican primary voters. Only sixty five percent of Democratic 650 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,440 primary voters are consistent primary voters. And what that suggests 651 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,400 to me is that there are a lot fewer people 652 00:35:49,599 --> 00:35:54,639 crossing over from the Democratic primary than in past elections. 653 00:35:54,679 --> 00:35:57,880 You know, there's always been you know, not as many 654 00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,840 as you would think, but there have always been voters 655 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:04,960 who might not be hardcore Republicans, but who vote in 656 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,159 the Republican primary because traditionally that is the primary that 657 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,360 decides who's going to represent us statewide. But we have 658 00:36:12,519 --> 00:36:16,239 such an interesting Democratic primary this time, and there is 659 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,199 such excitement and hope about the general election that it 660 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:23,880 seems like from the numbers that that's not happening as much. 661 00:36:24,159 --> 00:36:27,840 And if I am John Cornyn, if I am maybe 662 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:34,960 like a Joan Huffman who's running as a someone she 663 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,800 kind of portrays herself as a Republican who respects the 664 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,800 law in the AG race, if I am Nate Sheets 665 00:36:42,039 --> 00:36:45,559 running against Sid Miller in the AGG commissioner race, I 666 00:36:45,599 --> 00:36:48,519 am a little bit worried that we're not seeing as 667 00:36:48,519 --> 00:36:51,599 many Independents or Democrats crossing over and trying to vote 668 00:36:51,599 --> 00:36:54,000 for maybe the Republican who's a little bit more palatable 669 00:36:54,039 --> 00:36:54,440 to them. 670 00:36:55,639 --> 00:36:57,480 Speaker 2: Do you agree with that assessment. 671 00:36:57,039 --> 00:37:01,199 Speaker 4: Well, I do largely. And also look at another number 672 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,840 that Derek put in there, and that is first time 673 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,840 voters people first time to the poll. I found that 674 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,320 compelling for two reasons. One, the number of people that 675 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,920 were new to this election either on either side. Obviously 676 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,280 it was much higher on Democratic side, meaning the first 677 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,559 time voters are coming. Two things, they were younger, right, 678 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:25,400 and they were Latino. So those two factors are impactful. 679 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,800 I mean we're talking about two and three percent, which 680 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,400 most people would you know, no big deal, but two 681 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:34,320 and three percent can be the decision and an election 682 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,159 that's tight, like we're going to see in this one. 683 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,360 So yes, I do believe that that's the case. And 684 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,480 then again not to go back to an early vote 685 00:37:42,599 --> 00:37:45,840 or early election or our special election, but SD nine 686 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,559 I think if you look at those numbers, have precinct 687 00:37:48,599 --> 00:37:54,159 by precinct, voter by voter, you saw independence dramatically moving 688 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,079 over to the Democratic side. You saw Latinos go from 689 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,800 fifty two percent to seventy nine percent. 690 00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,679 Speaker 5: These are market shifts. 691 00:38:03,679 --> 00:38:05,880 Speaker 4: And again people say, oh, it was after the freeze 692 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:10,280 and it was a special election low turnout. Well, remember 693 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,679 these numbers are percentages, they're not raw numbers, so they're 694 00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,199 telling you something. And I think there is a story 695 00:38:16,679 --> 00:38:18,519 to be told here that what we're seeing in the 696 00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:22,000 data suggests that, look, we always know that in the 697 00:38:22,039 --> 00:38:24,679 mid term it's going to be probably the party against 698 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,440 the president. What you really should look for is the 699 00:38:27,519 --> 00:38:31,400 delta between what is typical in the year and then 700 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,719 what's happening on the ground. And I think we're seeing 701 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,320 a wave development well. 702 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 6: And to that point, one of the biggest stories coming 703 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,440 out of the twenty twenty four election obviously is what 704 00:38:40,519 --> 00:38:43,320 happened with Latino voters and the shift towards Donald Trump. 705 00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,159 And I think, you know, looking ahead to November, one 706 00:38:46,199 --> 00:38:48,679 of the if not the most important thing that we 707 00:38:48,679 --> 00:38:51,000 should all be paying attention to, is what happens with 708 00:38:51,159 --> 00:38:54,559 the Latino vote, right, does it do those shifts towards 709 00:38:54,559 --> 00:38:58,639 Republicans hold or to our Latino voters swing voters as 710 00:38:58,639 --> 00:39:01,360 you were saying, and shift towards Democrats. And I think 711 00:39:01,559 --> 00:39:04,360 we're getting a lot of data points that suggest that, 712 00:39:05,199 --> 00:39:07,760 you know, Latino voters or are swing voters, and that 713 00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,159 they're going to vote for whichever party in a given 714 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,679 year is making the best case and that maybe in 715 00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,760 twenty twenty six that's going to be Democrats. 716 00:39:16,039 --> 00:39:18,320 Speaker 4: You know, the Republicans spent a tremendous amount of time 717 00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,639 in the legislative session redistricting the entire entire stay with 718 00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,599 the expectation that Latino voters would stay where they were 719 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,039 in the twenty twenty four election. And then the strange 720 00:39:29,079 --> 00:39:32,000 thing happened in the first year of the Trump administration, 721 00:39:32,079 --> 00:39:36,599 and that is affordability did not go in the direction 722 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:40,360 that most Latinos had hoped it would would go. And again, 723 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:45,599 the aggressive ice tactics were quite offensive to the Latino community. 724 00:39:45,639 --> 00:39:48,320 And I think you saw a real erosion. You're seeing 725 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,079 it in Pew, You're seeing it in CNN. Last night, 726 00:39:51,199 --> 00:39:54,199 CNN showed that was twenty two percent support for the 727 00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,400 president now among Latinos when it was in the high forties. 728 00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,719 Speaker 2: We've seen that in our research, I'm sorry trusing it. 729 00:39:59,679 --> 00:40:02,280 Speaker 4: In your We're seeing it all over Texas and all 730 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,440 those districts that we're drawn with, you know, the Hispanic 731 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,239 support thinking that was going to remain in like hild 732 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:11,599 Algo and Cameron at fifty two, fifty five, fifty three percent. 733 00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,719 You know, look if those if those swing like we 734 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,519 saw in other areas around the state and around the country, 735 00:40:18,159 --> 00:40:22,760 those those you know are redistricting will be dummy manders, right, 736 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,039 and I think Democrats can really benefit from that. 737 00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,159 Speaker 1: Another person who I'm not sure I should say it 738 00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:35,440 might be worried right now, is but watching with interest 739 00:40:35,599 --> 00:40:40,559 some of these polls is Governor Abbott, who is not 740 00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:44,079 going to lose his primary, to be clear, and you know, 741 00:40:44,159 --> 00:40:47,280 I think probably like safe to say, remains the most 742 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,320 popular politician in the state. I mean, he has consistently 743 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:55,880 sort of had high approval ratings across the board. But 744 00:40:56,159 --> 00:40:59,000 he's coming off an election in twenty twenty four where 745 00:40:59,039 --> 00:41:02,400 he really exerted a will on the legislature, reshaped things, 746 00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,320 getting into a lot of races and successfully picking off 747 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,360 a lot of incumbents. This year, he put his support 748 00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,840 behind Nate Sheets commissioner race. He put his support behind 749 00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,719 Kelly Hancock in the comptroller race. I think there's a 750 00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,880 question right now about whether Kelly Hancock will make the 751 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,199 runoff in that race. I think there's a real question 752 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:31,719 about Nate Sheet's chances in that if things go that way. 753 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:36,719 What do you think that says about Abbott, who again, 754 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:40,639 like polls pretty well statewide and has during his entire 755 00:41:40,639 --> 00:41:41,320 time in office. 756 00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,960 Speaker 4: I think Abbot has one hundred and fifty million reasons 757 00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:45,440 why he's probably not that worried. 758 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 7: You can take some gambles. With one hundred and fifty 759 00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:49,599 million dollars in the. 760 00:41:49,519 --> 00:41:51,599 Speaker 5: Bank, he's going to be fine. 761 00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:57,199 Speaker 4: Look, he has been very strong and the legislative races, 762 00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,480 he's been very strong that in the in the in 763 00:41:59,519 --> 00:42:02,719 the state wide races. If he loses a few, I 764 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,559 think he will remain strong. He will not have an 765 00:42:05,599 --> 00:42:08,719 issue going into the legislature a legislative session in twenty 766 00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,239 twenty seven. You know, the speaker, Speaker Burroughs, I'm sure 767 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,559 is also counting these votes and wanting to make sure 768 00:42:15,599 --> 00:42:18,719 that he bolsters, you know, the support of Republicans didn't 769 00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:22,039 have to if they lose a significant number of House seats, 770 00:42:22,079 --> 00:42:24,960 which you know could happen in a wave year, that 771 00:42:25,199 --> 00:42:27,000 is problematic for the Speaker. 772 00:42:27,039 --> 00:42:27,880 Speaker 5: But I don't think. 773 00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,639 Speaker 4: Governor Abbot is too concerned about what will happen at 774 00:42:31,639 --> 00:42:34,320 these races. If he doesn't get the comptrollers race, or 775 00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,760 he doesn't get another race, he might have weighed in 776 00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,480 on I mean the fact is he puts them on 777 00:42:38,519 --> 00:42:42,199 the scale in the legislature and now, I mean, it's 778 00:42:42,199 --> 00:42:43,400 an Abbot legislature. 779 00:42:44,639 --> 00:42:48,000 Speaker 1: One other thing I want to bring up before we 780 00:42:48,039 --> 00:42:54,239 go to audience questions is the Tony Gonzalez race. You know, 781 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:59,800 our colleagues at the Express News, Bailist Wagner Nancy Johnson 782 00:43:00,119 --> 00:43:04,519 been reporting on this race. Tony Gonzalez, of course, barely 783 00:43:04,639 --> 00:43:11,000 escaped the primary last time. Since then, those colleagues of 784 00:43:11,039 --> 00:43:14,639 the Express News have been reporting on text messages that 785 00:43:15,079 --> 00:43:18,280 seemed to suggest Gonzalez having an affair with an Aid 786 00:43:19,119 --> 00:43:23,239 that Aid later died by suicide. They include text messages 787 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,599 in which he pressed her to send him a quote 788 00:43:26,639 --> 00:43:30,960 sexy pick, in which she pushes back calls it inappropriate. 789 00:43:31,039 --> 00:43:34,199 I'm like, I'm I don't want to play the game 790 00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:42,480 of you know, guessing why someone you know, you know 791 00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,360 took their own life. Like, That's not the game I 792 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,039 want to play. But these text messages do not look good. 793 00:43:49,679 --> 00:43:53,079 He was already an incredibly tough race. This is one 794 00:43:53,519 --> 00:43:58,320 where I think a sitting congressman is at real risk here. 795 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,039 Speaker 3: And a number of his colleagues have called I mean, 796 00:44:01,039 --> 00:44:02,800 in the last twenty four hours have called for him 797 00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:04,400 to resign or drop out of the race. I mean, 798 00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:08,480 I think there's been rumors swirling about this for you know, 799 00:44:08,599 --> 00:44:12,400 since this woman died in September, and really all of 800 00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,000 this coming to light. You know, the week before the election, 801 00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,599 as you said, he lost or he beat Brandon Herrera, 802 00:44:19,639 --> 00:44:22,639 who's running against this time in a runoff Latin twenty 803 00:44:22,679 --> 00:44:25,239 twenty four, by like less than four hundred points and 804 00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,920 now or less Peigner votes. And uh, you know, I'm 805 00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,719 curious what I mean your sense in particular, I mean, 806 00:44:32,079 --> 00:44:33,800 how much is this going to shift things for the 807 00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,159 average Republican voter in that district. 808 00:44:36,559 --> 00:44:38,920 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, look, let's not get in the business 809 00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,719 of talking about politicians as choir boys, right. I mean, 810 00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,400 we see all the time participation in these kinds of activities. 811 00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,039 They don't always end in the tragic way that we 812 00:44:48,119 --> 00:44:51,199 saw this one end. You know, if this had been 813 00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,199 three months ago, he probably would have not had much 814 00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,039 of an it would not have much of an impact. 815 00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,599 The fact that it's the week before I think his troubling, right, 816 00:44:59,599 --> 00:45:01,639 he was a it was already a close race. He 817 00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,440 was already in trouble in that regard, And I think 818 00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,679 this is definitely one of those those issues that probably 819 00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,920 could tip the scales scaling back a bit. I think 820 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,639 this is also one of those districts where Democrats have 821 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,480 a very good chance in the general election. So if 822 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,840 he's the nominee, I think this is good for the 823 00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,239 Democratic election. And if it's mister you know, a K 824 00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:27,400 forty seven guy, whatever his name is, that's not going 825 00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:28,360 to be much. 826 00:45:28,159 --> 00:45:29,519 Speaker 5: Better for them. 827 00:45:29,559 --> 00:45:31,679 Speaker 4: And that again, this is one of those districts that 828 00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,280 was drawn in such a way that it's probably plus 829 00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,360 seven to eight. You know, you get a swing of 830 00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,599 Latinos in that district of ten points, which is I 831 00:45:41,639 --> 00:45:44,519 think very reasonable. I mean, you're looking at a Democratic flip. 832 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,159 Speaker 3: Say this is the twenty third congressional district, which is 833 00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,760 the state's largest, stretching for like most of the border 834 00:45:50,119 --> 00:45:51,159 into San Antonio. 835 00:45:51,199 --> 00:45:53,039 Speaker 7: But yeah, a very swingy district. 836 00:45:53,199 --> 00:45:55,920 Speaker 6: Well, and I mean just that point, Like I mean one, 837 00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,679 I think voters in the primary or in general are 838 00:45:59,679 --> 00:46:01,840 going to be worried about this and thinking about it as. 839 00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:02,400 Speaker 2: They should be. 840 00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,440 Speaker 6: Two is just that when you look back at twenty 841 00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,639 sixteen to twenty eighteen, you know, Democrats obviously flipped two 842 00:46:10,639 --> 00:46:13,840 congressional seats that year, in Lizzie Fletcher's seat, there was 843 00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,519 a seventeen point swing from Republicans to Democrats. And that 844 00:46:16,559 --> 00:46:18,360 doesn't mean that that's we're going to see that all 845 00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,760 across the state. But I think when you look at 846 00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,079 some of these districts that have been redrawn and you 847 00:46:24,079 --> 00:46:26,679 think about, like, oh, what is what is competitive in 848 00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,320 a you know, quote unquote normal year, Like we're maybe 849 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,599 having a different discussion about what could or what could 850 00:46:33,679 --> 00:46:36,440 be competitive in twenty six I think. 851 00:46:36,639 --> 00:46:38,880 Speaker 1: Right, we will go to audience questions while Matt walks 852 00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:39,920 to the microphone owner. 853 00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,119 Speaker 2: You want to do thirty seconds on ag race. 854 00:46:42,159 --> 00:46:44,480 Speaker 3: The most important race. No one is paying off attention 855 00:46:44,519 --> 00:46:49,320 to the Attorney General's race. Wild we have, Yeah, So 856 00:46:49,519 --> 00:46:51,679 the Attorney General's race. We got a hugely competitive race 857 00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:53,599 on the Republican side, a very interesting race on the 858 00:46:53,599 --> 00:46:57,199 Democratic side. The Republicans are the most important Attorney General's 859 00:46:57,199 --> 00:47:00,400 office in the country for Republicans. So Chip Roy, you know, 860 00:47:00,519 --> 00:47:03,840 really came into this with name recognition. Mays Middleton putting 861 00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:06,760 in almost twelve million of his own dollars to try 862 00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,519 to catch him in a runoff. Aaron Wrights and Joan Huffman, 863 00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:14,000 I would say, you know, trying to weasel their way 864 00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:16,719 into a runoff, but going to be a fascinating race. 865 00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,519 Speaker 6: I mean, they're trying out crazy each other right like 866 00:47:19,559 --> 00:47:22,760 they're trying it's a race to the bottom. The ag 867 00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,039 race here is a race to the bottom, and it 868 00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,800 just Texans do not win, you know, no matter who 869 00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,840 wins that Republican primary, Texans do not win. And you know, 870 00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:36,280 I'm interested to see how that all pans out in 871 00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:36,719 the general. 872 00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:38,079 Speaker 2: Honestly, if you follow. 873 00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,880 Speaker 4: The prediction markets, poly Market's telling us that Chip Royce 874 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,719 probably the odds on favorite to win that race. I 875 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,800 think that's a function of name identification. And he's been 876 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,440 on national television a long time, sometimes in the face 877 00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,719 of Trump, sometimes with him, but Trump has not released him, 878 00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,000 and so I think he probably is the person that 879 00:47:58,079 --> 00:48:00,239 ends up in that in that role. It looks like 880 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,920 that at oh Mays has worked very hard and spent 881 00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,039 a lot of money to win that. But you know, 882 00:48:05,119 --> 00:48:08,079 look in a state like Texas, when there's seven large 883 00:48:08,639 --> 00:48:11,119 media markets, how do you spend enough money to get 884 00:48:11,199 --> 00:48:13,719 name recognition in a two and a half month period. 885 00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,760 Very difficult, And so I think Chip Roy's the odds 886 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:21,400 on favor for that race. So as we enter into 887 00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,320 our Q and A period, just a reminder you can 888 00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,239 ask questions at Texas Tribune dot org slash ask, but 889 00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:30,719 we do have a few questions here. One which is 890 00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:34,360 really for anyone here. They ask how can we get 891 00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,119 more voters to vote? And I just add, I mean 892 00:48:37,159 --> 00:48:41,039 with that, have we seen certain strategies that have been affected? 893 00:48:41,119 --> 00:48:45,159 Is it's all about the races themselves? 894 00:48:46,119 --> 00:48:48,840 Speaker 6: I mean, I think there's a lot we could say here, 895 00:48:49,679 --> 00:48:51,039 but I think I want to pick up on a 896 00:48:51,039 --> 00:48:54,599 point that Jason made earlier, which is just the like 897 00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:58,440 deep frustration that you're seeing in from voters across the 898 00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:02,320 country and around the world with the establishment and this 899 00:49:02,559 --> 00:49:07,559 growing sort of like anti establishment. You know, we want different, right, 900 00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:11,760 Both both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are 901 00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:16,159 incredibly unpopular across the country. They're both pretty unpopular here 902 00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:18,480 in Texas and most of the polling and so I 903 00:49:18,519 --> 00:49:21,079 think on the Democratic side at least, but this is 904 00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:24,239 this is true for either Canada, either side, there's going 905 00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:25,960 to be a real effort to say, you know, I'm 906 00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,039 not a DC Democrat, I'm not a traditional type of Democrat. 907 00:49:29,039 --> 00:49:32,320 I'm a Texas Democrat, and we are different for XYZ reasons. 908 00:49:32,519 --> 00:49:35,199 I think that's what voters are looking for, and I think, frankly, 909 00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:38,360 there's a risk on the Republican side where Republicans have 910 00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,480 been in power here for thirty years, and certainly the 911 00:49:41,519 --> 00:49:44,199 anti establishment sentiment has not caught up with them yet. 912 00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,280 Speaker 2: But will it? Right, is twenty twenty sixth the year 913 00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,920 that maybe it does? So? I don't know. There's Jason 914 00:49:50,199 --> 00:49:51,280 curious what you would add there? 915 00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,599 Speaker 4: You know, it's a difficult request, right, How do you 916 00:49:54,679 --> 00:49:57,360 do this? You know I served in a district that 917 00:49:57,519 --> 00:50:00,320 was relatively close from a or of his. I guess 918 00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,719 they call it orvis back then, which is Republican versus Democrat. 919 00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,400 And what we found was the closer it was, the 920 00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:11,000 more people showed up. So competition obviously drives people to 921 00:50:11,079 --> 00:50:13,400 the polls. Now, the problem you have in the Texas 922 00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,880 primary a Republican or Democrat. These districts are drawn for 923 00:50:17,079 --> 00:50:19,880 one or the other, so there's no real competition, so 924 00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:21,039 people don't show up. 925 00:50:21,079 --> 00:50:22,719 Speaker 5: How do you change that? 926 00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:27,119 Speaker 4: I proposed to Bill foolishly to try to get a commission, 927 00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,760 the independent commission to draw these districts, so that there 928 00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:34,840 were always forty forty eight fifty two sized districts and 929 00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,840 then everybody would show up a boy that went over 930 00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:41,559 like well, I won't use that the euphemism I would use, but. 931 00:50:42,559 --> 00:50:43,920 Speaker 5: I think that's competition. 932 00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,519 Speaker 4: And then again, we talked about the rage machine earlier, 933 00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,800 and I do think there is some real animus on 934 00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,679 the public today to make a change, as you witnessed 935 00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:57,239 last night. And I think that anger, particularly at the 936 00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:01,639 president right now, is driving people do the polls, and 937 00:51:01,679 --> 00:51:02,239 that's good. 938 00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:03,480 Speaker 5: I think that's a healthy thing. 939 00:51:03,599 --> 00:51:05,920 Speaker 4: And so I think we're going to see a large 940 00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,559 turnout election for a midterm this cycle. 941 00:51:11,119 --> 00:51:14,800 Speaker 8: Does the tall Arico campaign mark a moment for Democrats 942 00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:16,719 to talk more about their faith? 943 00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:17,519 Speaker 5: Is that? 944 00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:22,039 Speaker 8: Is that a better play in Texas kind of uniquely 945 00:51:22,159 --> 00:51:28,480 or can it resonate for Dems around the country. 946 00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:32,119 Speaker 6: Well, I think it can definitely resonate for Dems across 947 00:51:32,159 --> 00:51:35,079 the country. I think the question even more so as 948 00:51:35,119 --> 00:51:38,280 will it resonate for general election independent? 949 00:51:38,599 --> 00:51:41,320 Speaker 2: You know, all voters across the country. 950 00:51:42,199 --> 00:51:46,360 Speaker 6: You know, clearly Representative tall Rico is tapping into and 951 00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,079 I think we see this through his social media, We 952 00:51:49,159 --> 00:51:52,119 see this through just the amount of attention he's getting. 953 00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:56,960 He's clearly tapping into something that's really different from anyone 954 00:51:57,079 --> 00:51:59,239 else in the party. Right, There aren't There aren't many 955 00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,079 Democratic leaders even across the country. We were talking about 956 00:52:02,079 --> 00:52:04,360 faith in the same way. Think Grafel Warnock does an 957 00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,519 incredible job. I think Andy Basheer does a really good job. 958 00:52:07,519 --> 00:52:11,559 But clearly James has tapped into something there that is 959 00:52:11,599 --> 00:52:15,320 resonating with people. I think, you know, obviously that is 960 00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,960 you know, important in Texas, and again, I think it 961 00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:23,119 comes back to like creating. One of the things you 962 00:52:23,159 --> 00:52:24,760 need to do to be able to win, and this 963 00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:29,039 is true everywhere, is create the permission structure for people 964 00:52:29,079 --> 00:52:32,320 who have identified as Republicans for a long time to 965 00:52:32,639 --> 00:52:35,360 switch parties and vote for a Democrat. And I do 966 00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,400 think faith is an entry point in order to do that, 967 00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:39,239 you know, I. 968 00:52:39,199 --> 00:52:42,199 Speaker 4: Think this is a very good moment for Democrats to 969 00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:46,320 seize the mantle of religion and politics. 970 00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:46,599 Speaker 5: Right. 971 00:52:46,679 --> 00:52:52,079 Speaker 4: The Republicans have really used what they call Christian nationalism 972 00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:53,360 to claim. 973 00:52:53,039 --> 00:52:54,559 Speaker 5: The mantle of religion. 974 00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:58,920 Speaker 4: Right, But Christian nationalism is not Christianity, and it's certainly 975 00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:02,440 not just general space rituality or faith, and so I 976 00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:07,840 think if Democrats can juxtapose the brand of faith religion 977 00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:12,239 that they represent, as tall Rico does so eloquently on 978 00:53:13,039 --> 00:53:16,920 the on the stage, I think that's a real opportunity 979 00:53:17,079 --> 00:53:21,320 for people who are moderate Democrats or even crossover Republicans 980 00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,719 to say, you know, I'm not as comfortable with Christian nationalism, 981 00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:26,840 but I am comfortable with feeding the poor and. 982 00:53:27,599 --> 00:53:28,920 Speaker 5: Loving my neighbor, you know. 983 00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:31,000 Speaker 4: And those are kinds of things I think that are 984 00:53:31,079 --> 00:53:35,360 universal among Texans, but the Republicans have not really seized 985 00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:39,920 upon that in their focus on what they call religion. 986 00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,599 Speaker 6: Well, and it's an opportunity for Democrats not to just 987 00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:46,679 try to take back faith, but to take back morality, 988 00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:50,599 right and this like who is the party that you 989 00:53:50,679 --> 00:53:52,679 can trust to do what's right? And I think at 990 00:53:52,679 --> 00:53:55,480 a time when you've got Donald Trump in the White 991 00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:59,519 House and potentially Ken Paxton as the top of ticket 992 00:53:59,559 --> 00:54:03,559 Republican nominee in Texas, like that as an argument that 993 00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,599 is kind of makes itself a little bit. 994 00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,400 Speaker 8: So that will turn the program back over to Matthew 995 00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:09,840 and Elinor. 996 00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:14,000 Speaker 1: Okay, well, thank you to both of our guests. Really 997 00:54:14,079 --> 00:54:16,599 appreciate this conversation. I also want to say thank you 998 00:54:16,679 --> 00:54:19,840 to everyone here in the audience, people watching online and 999 00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:23,360 listening to this on the podcast later, really appreciate it. 1000 00:54:24,079 --> 00:54:27,199 Next week a big reminder, we will do the post 1001 00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:28,719 primary wrap up. 1002 00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:30,159 Speaker 2: I will not be there. 1003 00:54:30,639 --> 00:54:33,519 Speaker 7: Dayl right, Wednesday, Wednesday. 1004 00:54:33,119 --> 00:54:35,440 Speaker 1: Yes, thank you, and I will not be there because 1005 00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:37,840 CBS and the FCC. 1006 00:54:37,639 --> 00:54:41,000 Speaker 2: Will be out there. They're muzzling, just trying. 1007 00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:44,400 Speaker 1: To get eighty five million people to watch that. But 1008 00:54:44,639 --> 00:54:50,079 Eleanor will be hosting again. Brad Johnson, Tribune reporter Brad 1009 00:54:50,159 --> 00:54:53,400 Johnson from the Texas Bullpen Tribune reporter rinso Downey, former 1010 00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:57,679 Tribune reporter and Capital Tonight host James Bergon, and late 1011 00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:01,199 breaking news former Texas Tribune reporter Patrick's fed Tech will 1012 00:55:01,199 --> 00:55:02,239 be joining us as well. 1013 00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:04,920 Speaker 2: Enjoy that. 1014 00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,039 Speaker 7: It'll be great. Yeah, the four horsemen of Texas politics. 1015 00:55:08,039 --> 00:55:11,519 Speaker 2: It might get eighty million views exactly. Yeah. All right, Well, 1016 00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:13,480 thank you all again and we will talk to y'all 1017 00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:13,880 next week.