Speaker 1: What is up, Fellows, it goes, I am Valley coming
at you with my certified fantabulous I'd wanted only co host,
mister Grant Hughes.
Speaker 2: The NBA playoffs are still happening. We're going to talk
about them. It's a forthcoming series. First and foremost, do
grant that card.
Speaker 3: I'm doing very well. I as as I said last week,
playoffs are great. Everything's better in the playoffs. Guys are
trying hard, stakes matter, all that stuff. And also we've
had some teams eliminated, so we don't have to watch
four games every night anymore, which is the huge bonus
to my life.
Speaker 1: Was that Tuesday, I didn't like the four playoff games
on the weekend. You can game it because but when
there's an overlap with them, that was so annoying.
Speaker 3: It's too much. It's too much to have to pay
close attention to you. So I'm glad I'm not rooting
against anybody except the Rockets. But I just sometimes it's
I'm not upset when a series ends and we have
one less team to worry about.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the first second round series that was
set the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Indiana Pacers. This series,
I was going through it, and we'll have for anyone
who's unfamiliar with how we do previews, like we'll have
a tactical question, narrative question, and then our X factors.
I was going through this series trying to figure out, like, Okay,
what is gonna be just the the defining example from it.
I think ultimately both the offenses are gonna be fine,
and so it led me to believe, well, like, how
are these two teams gonna like what is the interplay defensively?
And I think my biggest question what I'm still narrowing
down between the two, but I kind of want to know,
like is Cleveland gonna get caught up and trying to
go after Tyres Haliburton a little too much or not
too like they did it to Tyler hero in the
first round. Tyre's Alibert had some really big defensive plays
against the Bucks, but he is someone you could go after.
Let's say it works, how do the Pacers counter that?
And if like not working as the Calves, then where
do you go from that? Because you don't want to Okay,
logically it makes sense to go after Tyre's Halliburn but
if that's not working, like what is the counter to that?
Speaker 2: Then?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, first of all, I'm glad that I'm glad
you're kind of like trying to work through this the
salient points for this series, because I had a hard
time just kind of zeroing in on anything that felt like, oh,
here's the key to the series. Here's because really like broadly,
maybe tell me if you agree with this, Like, sure
there's differences, but like the Calves and Pacers are their
offense first teams that just like when you're analyzing a
series they're in generally it's like, well, how does team
X stop Cleveland? Or how does Team Y stop the Pacers?
Like that kind of thing, and then like the defense
just is what it is now because both are just
good offenses are defined by their offense anyway, certainly Cleveland
more so, they're the best in the league. It's you
do look more at the other end, So like for me,
I wonder so just to get the numbers out there.
On the season, the Calves defensive rating was better than
than Indies, but the Pacers was better. After the All
Star break by a decent margin. They were eighth in
defensive efficiency. The Calves were fourteenth. Some of that might
be the Calves took the pedal foot off the gas
because they had the number one seed and that type
of thing. But like this, these are still pretty. These
are good defenses, and the Pacers have been better than
good lately, and the Calves were better than good over
the bulk of the year. Specifically, though, for the Pacers,
I wonder if it's gonna be possible for them to run,
because transition is important for both of these teams, but
more so I think for the Pacers offense. The Calves
half court defense is fifth in the league, the Pacers
is sixteenth. So if you do get into a bogged
down kind of setup, I think that favors the Calves,
whose half core defense is just better. And I think
that means that the Pacers' ability to run, which is
always compromised in the playoff anyway, matters a little more
so tactically, I'm just looking at can Indiana like get
the chaotic like you know, swing swing swing stuff that
comes off of like transition, miss missteps or like the
defense not being set. If so, that's not a player
specific thing. I think your Haliburton point is pretty That's
my Cleveland tactical thing is like how do we maximize
going at Haliburton? And then like what do the Pacers do?
Where do they hide him? That kind of thing.
Speaker 1: It does seem like too that getting the defense set
is more important for Indy's defense than it would be
for Cleveland's to where it's like Indy needs to score
to help out its offense more than Cleveland does. Probably,
I just think with the number of buttons they could press,
but I don't even know. And and with Haliburton, it's
we don't have like the sample size from the regular
season when you look at some of the Pacers injuries
also including Haliburt not playing. I think in at least
one of the games with Cleveland, like what is the
go to defender on Haliburton? Are you gonna give Mitchell
a chance at all? Do you default to DeAndre Hunter?
It doesn't look like Infuria should be Isaaca Korro, but
he might not be part of the plans if you're
gonna play like if you're putting Hunter on Halliburton, this
has to be a Dean Wade series then, right, because
you need someone else to like who's gonna be able
to defend?
Speaker 2: Like the rest of the attack.
Speaker 1: But I've also gone back and forth, like on the
pacer side of this in fury. Is this a better
matchup than people are crediting because of all like Cleveland's
best players, not one of them is that apex predator
wing as you call them. And so when like that's
in theory, that's Indy's biggest defensive weakness. They have Aaron Smith,
they have nem Hard, but those guys aren't necessarily big
enough to go Yeah, okay, Donna Mitchell.
Speaker 2: Darius Carland are fantastic, but Aaron E.
Speaker 1: Smith Andrew Nemhard being able to go out that maybe
you sprinkling a little bit of Ben Sheppard there the
push and pull here for this for the series tactically,
and then even you know you mentioned sort of like
the half court with Indy, think Pascal Siakam becomes huge. Yeah,
we're gonna see a lot Evan, but like he gives
them sort of that change of cadence like on ball
half quartu like, and he could punish mismatches in the
post like he can also get going downhill and change directions.
So this feels like at Tyre's Hollburn's always gonna be
the most important star. But I think you're not gonna
be able to get away with as we kind of
saw points in the Pacers Buck series. I don't think
you can get away from Pascal Siakam being as involved,
Like he needs to be involved more than he was
at points in that that Buck series.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right, And part of that's because
he can make Garland or Mitchell, you know, those are guys.
I think if if you can get engineer switch so
Siakam gets it at the elbow against one of those
two guys somehow, then like, okay, we can tying back
to like, are the Pacers gonna be able to score
enough in half court sets? Like that's probably one of
the ways it's gonna have to happen is through Siakam
against mismatches. If you can engineer that kind of thing.
I mean, I feel pretty confidence saying there's gonna be
a lot of like whether it's in transition or semi transition,
just like a lot of pre switching, a lot of
like because this feels like a match up Hunty kind
of series to me. And I think I think, like,
you know, because the Pacers have Haliburton, you would say, like, well,
and the Cavs are, but like it's not like, I
guess MOBILEI getting some you know, getting downhill against Haliburton
in a switch somehow, I just might be a problem.
But Siakam going against either of Cleveland's two guards, If
you can make that happen, if you can get Mobley
away from him somehow, that's pretty interesting to me. I
don't know. I think odds are like this may just
end up being an up tempo series. And if it is,
like if this is just chaos and up and down
and the scores are in the one thirties, does it
feel weird to say, like that might actually be best
case for Indiana even though they're going against the best
offense in the league. Like, it's weird that like the
style of play that Indiana needs to I think needs
to you know, sort of make happen is would also
see to play into Cleveland's hands a little bit, which
is kind of scary for the Pacers.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I didn't. I didn't even think about it that way,
So I guess it could. Yeah, it's like the other
by the way.
Speaker 1: The other thing too, is so both of these teams
tactually start two bigs and they're like some of the
least impressive rebounding teams right in the league, like at
the playoffs.
Speaker 2: So what does that sort of look like?
Speaker 1: And like do we see you know with Indy it's
is there less Jaris Walker or Obi top it because
they want Thomas Bryant size it like in moments where
it's Jared Allen never Mobile or is it you're looking
at Cleveland's Well, there's gonna be a lot of one
big minutes too, so you don't necessarily need to pull
that lever. I also think Miles Turner defended really well
in that Buck series, and so the idea of Evan
Mobley getting downhill is sort of me like, well, that
can cause a lot of havoc. But it feels like
after he and Siakham and even Nie Smith spending a
lot of time on Giannis went up against Giannis who
like was dominant. He was Jannis, but like having to
go up against Evan Mobile or Jared Awn just doesn't
seem as intimidating.
Speaker 3: Well the thing too, like yeah, we should talk about
the Yannis parallel because then it's like, okay, well Yannis
got all he could eat and Indy was having three
guys wall up the whole time, and Yannis still got
his and outside of Gary Trent going nuclear for like
one full game and then I don't know, like another
twelve minute stretch like you know, the Bucks didn't really
have to pay for that. I mean, if you're walling
up against a Mobili drive for example, which like you
could imagine the Calves at points trying to get Mobili
in like the Yannis role where he's just going downhill
and it's like okay, stop me. Certainly, like you can't
get away with devoting tons of help to that if
you're Indiana, because Mitchell's out there, Garlands out there, Struce
is out like the Calves will make you pay for
loading up to stop or to try to protect the paint.
I think against like a driving forward like Mobili, but
then like Mobiley's not Yanis obviously, so maybe you do
play him more straight.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be really interesting because I think at what
I do feel most confident in is the Pacers got
like their first round series was more useful to them
in terms of like carry forward stuff that they could
use in this series then Cleveland's was. Because Cleveland, you know,
Bam is great, but it's like, just go a hero
and then stress the other defenders and you'll score plenty
and then there's not really that much you need to
worry about on the other end, you know. I feel
like at least Indiana had it was a short series too,
but Indiana got like got a little bit of a
test specifically against someone for sure. Yeah, so again especially
against we got Okay, we saw Giannis like We're never
gonna see like a downhill force like that the rest
of the playoffs. So like, okay, we handled that great,
Like maybe we're ready, you know.
Speaker 1: But I guess to your point though, like being able
to attempt to wall off Giannis and then not have
to worry about the Bucks really capitalizing on it, You're
just not gonna be able to do that with Cleveland
supporting Cat.
Speaker 3: No, I don't think so. Yeah, So maybe just overall,
it's well, tell me what you think about this. I
kind of imagine, you know, the both bigs are gonna
guard both bigs, Like I don't think Mobile's gonna start
on Haliburton or anything anything like wild like that.
Speaker 1: Tony East of Lockedown Pacers mentioned as a bunch and
the Calves did play zone a lot during the regular season,
but like the Pacers will sometimes struggle against zone, even
though in theory they have the personnel like to bust
it up a little bit. So I'm wondering, then, do
we just even see a ton of zone from Cleveland
in this series too?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's possible, especially if, like if if the Pacers
are successful kind of getting the blender running, you know,
which they can do against a lot of teams than
they did against against Milwaukee. Do you have like a
narrative thing you're focused on for the series on either side?
Speaker 2: No, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I should say I forced myself to focus on something,
but this doesn't feel like because if I guess, if
if you look at it through almost a lens of well,
which team has more at stake?
Speaker 2: I guess is what I'm looking at.
Speaker 1: I guess it has to be the Calves, just because
in theory they were so good during the regular season
that it would be seen as a disappointment if they
didn't make the conference finals. And I think a lot
of people are gonna end up picking them in especially
if they only look at let's say, Indie season long
performance rather than what they were like over the final
fifty games or post nem Hard return from injury, But
like that's just I was looking at it and wondering, well,
which team does this like series mean more for in
terms of a referendum, and is it actually indy because
like what else is Cleveland supposed to do?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: But they didn't win this season, so I guess maybe
would that make the referendum bigger on them? But I
think that this is really going to be a referendum
on all right, well, how close are the Pacers, Like
they're going up like this is if they make the
conference finals this year because they beat the Calves, that is,
I don't care what happens in the next round. Like
that's something you read into because this Cleveland team is
fucking awesome.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right about the on the Pacer
side of it. That's kind of what I focused on too.
This Like if you beat this Cleveland team, then it's
like very much vindication is not quite the right word
because like, you know, you still did you beat a
Bucks team that just had Giannis and Lillard got hurt,
and it was like get it, there's another asterisk on
that one. But beating this Cleveland team would just be like, Okay,
we don't get to talk about the like you know,
asterisk or the sketchiness of last year's run. We don't
get It's like that this would be a real like legit,
you know, era defining, like there was a before and
and after for this version of the Pacers kind of moment,
So that has to sort of be it also like
the will we continue to see Haliburton just take this
It's not totally fair, but like kind of a heel
turn where it's like he's just talking the whole time.
Is it just confined to the Bucks or will he like, well,
the Pacers kind of really get see will they show
the same kind of bravado against Cleveland and will that
kind of come to be there you know how we
think of them. But I think we're overthinking it if
we say, like the Pacers have more at stake, because
it is just like Cleveland has to win this series.
It just it just has to.
Speaker 1: I do believe that whoever loses will immediately be named
as a dark horse. Yiannis attent Tokupo trade destination, where
what if Cleveland just trade Garland and Jared Allen to
get Yannis because the Bucks want to stay good. And
then with the Pacers, it's they basically have they have
a bunch of picks, they have some young players, they
have some salary to get there be a little complicated,
but I think that would be That's not a narrative
I'm watching for, but I expect whichever team loses to
be named is like they they're a dark horse to
get Yannis.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, well if we're just no matter, if
forget this series, every team that loses, well, you know
who could really help them. I think just it ties
back to what I said too from the Cleveland side
about about like they're gonna have more of a test.
I think, you know, Kenny Atkinson did not have to
like make a lot of adjustments against Miami. You know,
I think we'll see, like hopefully the Pacers push the
Calves enough to where we get to see because I
think we both do we both have akins in this
Coach of the Year and like I think like this
will be kind of the first opportunity we'll have to see, like, oh,
what does he do if if things go sideways in
a game too, or like what what different levers do
the Cavs have to pull because like they just you know,
they they didn't really have to. So I think we'll
learn quite a bit about the Calves in this one.
Speaker 1: I wonder if because he was playing and probably there
were some games where it looked like it was ten,
but it's probably eight or nine. Guys, do is the
rotation like truncate any further in this one? Also because
like the depth is is this not a tied to
Rome series for some when you look at like some
of the way that the Pacer second units play, like
is this going to be a Tiger Rome series? But yeah,
that that's a really good question. Who are your Let's
start with Calves X factor we got?
Speaker 3: I mean I was struggling between all of the guys
that this was the same case in the last round.
I think I don't remember exactly what we said. I
just ended up with Strus. I think he's gonna have
like I feel like that's where Haliburton's gonna go defensively
right like, because he's not getting Garland or Mitchell and
then he's obviously not guarding up. So can Struce make
him pay? Can Struce make him Does that mean Struce
becomes a screener more often, just to have a Haliburton
involved in stuff. Does he make sure that Halburton, you know,
has to run around, you know, will he be a
movement shooter like that kind of thing? And also, like
the other four guys on the Cavs starting lineup, just
they can't be X factors because they're all too good
and they're all too much of like known commodities. But
you could Dean Wade was a thought just just because
he is like the embodiment of an X factor for
this team. But I think for me it's true, who
did you have?
Speaker 1: I have the I thought about Dan Way too, But
I'm always constantly maybe that's what it typifies an X factor.
Speaker 2: I'm always constantly wonder how how much is he actually
going to play?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And and is this a series for him? Like
I mean maybe I kind of think it's gonna have
to be. But that's because in part my X factor
is DeAndre Hunter. I think he's gonna see a bunch
of time against Tyre's Halliburton, and it'll be interesting to see,
if you know, if Tyr's Alburt gets cross matched on Hunter,
if they decide, well, that's actually where if he's playing
with the starters, let's say like, well that's where you're
gonna put Tyre's Haliburton anyway, there, how do you feel
about DeAndre Hunter as a screener or how do you
feel about DeAndre Hunter attacking Tyre Haliburton? That I think
I'm probably overthinking it offensively, but defensively, I think that
he is going to spend a ton of time on
Haliburt and I'll just be curious to see how he
stands up against that. And then the trickle down effect
of that, though, is then doesn't this need to become
sort of a deep because how much do you want
like maybe Max Drews can do some stuff against the
Akham or like you're not like if you're not gonna
want to have Sam Merrill on the court because.
Speaker 2: He's had to play.
Speaker 1: If he's gonna play with the two small guards, he's
technically the three on offense. But if you're putting a
Hunter on Haliburton, like what was he the four on defense?
Then so that gets tricky.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think like Hunter's a good pick because
normally you'd say, like I think the Cabs are gonna
have to play a Chorro right like, because maybe that's
the guy you have Chase Haliburton Around's like Hunter needs
to be ninety percent of a Coorro defensively, and then
you get the bonus of like, oh god, he can
just punish any small guard that he gets. Matt, you know,
switched on too offensively.
Speaker 2: Your Pacers X factor is I think.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go nam Hard.
Speaker 2: He's just was robbed, but Karen, he's just if.
Speaker 3: Johnny Furpy plays in this series, something happened that was
extreme one way or the other. Uh, He's just gonna
have It's gonna he's gonna be on Garland or Mitchell
every second he's on the floor, and it's just like
he so he's gonna have no rest whatsoever. And I
do think the Pacers are also gonna need him to score.
You can make the argument that he's too good to
be an X factor, but I think his job is
so important that, uh, I just he could be the
non star that defines the series. I think I.
Speaker 1: Actually kind of have the same take about Aaron E.
Smith to where I think, defensively, Okay, Nemhard, we know
he's gonna defend like one of the two toughest perimeter covers.
Nee Smith will spend a ton of time on the
other one. You're probably also gonna see him on Evan
Mobley right at points and then offensively, I think you're
gonna try and get away with putting Garland or Mitchell
on him at points and ken Ne Smith make and
that might be part of or can he be part
of busting the zone where it's like he especially the
Buck series, he had some really like heady drives where's
getting sh introduce he just couldn't finish on that. So
if he's able to do that on offense, that's sort
of a gimme because it's like it just pulls like
some options out of Cleveland's belt with Well, then how
do we go about accounting for both Siakam and Haliburton right?
Speaker 2: And is he someone who because like the.
Speaker 1: Pacers don't necessarily I would love to see the data
on Like the two man game between Siakam and Haliburton
seems like it hits its peak in fourth quarters and
like they kind of try and conserve it throughout the
rest of the game is sort of a cheat code. Well,
you need someone else to be doing things like to
preserve like so Miles Turner like popping and hitting shots there,
or Andrew Nemhart being able to create off the dribbling
on the inside. TJ McConnell being his own buster, or
somebody's like Nie Smith could factor into.
Speaker 2: That a little bit.
Speaker 1: I think he's just gonna play a ton and that
Cleveland will try and get away with putting one of
their quote unquote defensive liabilities on him, even though like
it just wouldn't sho Like Mitchell, I wouldn't shock me
if he was just matched up with Garland at point.
Speaker 2: Ye excuse me, Mitchell. It wouldn't shock me if Mitchell
defended Garland.
Speaker 3: I know you meant. I think on the Niesemuth front too,
I think one of the things we've seen throughout these playoffs,
particularly because there have been a lot of like matchups
so far where there's been a huge size discrepancy or
there's been a lot of zone played like as a
result of that, and one of the things that that
like we don't see as much in the regular season
that's an issue now is when you have a bunch
of weird cross matches or you have a bunch of
funky zones being played like opportunities for offensive rebounds are
just there's just more of them. And so so like
if Nie Smith is getting guarded by a big or
if it's a weird zone and Niemith is being like
shaded away from or anything like that, could you just
go crash and get like a couple extra possessions you
know per game, like that kind of thing. I just
feel like that's among the things that change in the
playoffs and these in particular, the value of offensive rebounding
has has kind of taken on like a new level.
And if you are someone that's getting schemed against or
like some hiding on you or whatever, it is like
just just haul and ask to the offensive boards and
like you know, trying to get in there without being
boxed out or getting forgotten about like that. Could you know,
I think this will be a fairly competitive series, so
like that might ultimately that might matter, that might swing
a game.
Speaker 2: And to that end, what is your series prediction?
Speaker 3: So I have to go with the Calves. I just
think the Calves are better. I have fewer questions. The
issue is how many games I'm gonna go. I want
to give the Pacers respect, so it can't be five.
I think I'm just gonna go Calves in six, which
means the Calves have to finish it on the road,
but I think they're good enough to do that.
Speaker 1: I want Caves in six as well, in part because
I've been banging the Pacers drum since I decided that
I was out on them too, where So als I
need to do is declare myself out on a team
and they'll turn things around. But I think Cleveland and
five is gonna be the most popular pick. But I
really just India has shown the ability to dial it
up defensively over the last like now sixty ish games
that I think really needs to be accounted for, and
they'll this is I mean, the Calves are the Celtics,
like these would be the teams that will stress test
their defense to no end. But I like a I
think Rick car has a lot of different buttons to push,
and I think they're a very creative team at both
ends of the floor. And if Miles Turner is gonna
be the version of Myles Turner defensively that we saw
in uh like in the Bucks series, if Cleveland decides
to cater towards more one big units, do you think
that favors Indie or Cleveland more.
Speaker 3: Uh, I guess that would favor Indy. I guess, but
I don't know. That's an interesting question. I don't really
thought about that. So that what's the scenario where Indiana
forces the Calves to play one big more often.
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying it forces them, but I guess
if they're doing a better job of defending the Calves
offense where you're not either getting like as many paint
touches as normal, or if like your three pointers aren't falling,
is like, okay, we pull Allen, we put another shooter
on the court, and that opens up the floor. Like
the Pacers are interesting because they could downsize in response,
or they could just stay the same, like they're two bigs.
It's not as just like you run into people are
concerned about this. Rudy Gobert is a bad example because
his problem's on offense in these situations, it's not on defense.
But it's like, can you, like, does that play into
the Pacers hands.
Speaker 2: A little bit if you go that route? Or no?
Does it make it?
Speaker 1: Because all right, well now Pascal Siakam is going to
spend even more time like maybe flying around with someone
who's in motion or just who's more of a perimeter player.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I think I think if if
the Calves take Alan off the floor, because I feel
fine with Alan guarding Siakam or Turner, depending on what
Cleveland wants to do with.
Speaker 2: Like, the problem for Cleveland is not.
Speaker 1: Greg Anthony, I don't know if you caught it in
one of the games, had like a great monologue on
this about like the defense in the NBA, and you
just have these seven footers being able to keep up
with all fives. The problem won't be defensively for Cleveland
with mobile now and if there's a problem at.
Speaker 3: All, Yeah, I think if one of the Calves, I
I guess the My answer is because if I'm the Calves,
I want Allen on the floor because I do think
he might just be someone that you know, controls the glass,
gets a bunch of rebounds, extra points, that way, kickouts
and that kind of thing. So if the Pacers have
gotten out, gotten Alan off the floor like more than
he normally would be, that feels like a win because
I don't think the Calves would like elect to do
that to get the If the Calves elect to do
that to get the offense going, like the Pacers are
doing something right.
Speaker 2: Good point, So.
Speaker 1: We both have calves and six. Moral of the story
grant Celtics verse Nicks. The collision course that took a
little longer to get to than I think people were
expect even on Boston side, with what happened against Orlando.
Speaker 2: Yeah, tactically speaking, what are you watching for in this matchup?
Speaker 3: Uh? So for the Knicks, I'm interested to see if
they view what Orlando tried against Boston as like a blueprint,
you know, just essentially, One, do they think they have
the personnel to do it? They probably should? And two
will that be Will Will switching a lot and not
helping and not letting the Celtics get the like multiple
swing passes for open threes, not helping on drives like
that kind of thing, just kind of playing like one
on one basketball with a lot of switches, Like, is
that something the Knicks believe they can believe is a
good idea and believe that they can succeed with because
their personnel is very different obviously from from Orlando's. And
then do you also like, is it a good idea
to just like take notes from a team that got
it's ass kicked by the Celtics. I don't know that
like that seems like an interesting way to keep Kat
and Brunson out of like pick and roll attacks to
the extent Boston might try to do that, just switch
a lot and just live with it. I don't know.
My gut says that's not what the Knicks will do,
But I don't know. Orlando made it interesting by kind
of trying that for some stretches.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I mean the Celtics against the Magic
shot thirty four point eight three pointers per one hundred possessions.
During the regular season, they shot forty nine point six
three pointers PROTRAU. That's a monster drop off. And they're
also just Orlando's contest rate fifteen point four percent of
Boston's jumpers, so any shots outside of ten feet went unguarded.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: That number during the regular season for Boss was twenty
six point two percent. I'm here to tell you, Grant,
and I don't think this is going to shock you.
The Knicks have neither the coach nor the personnel that
is going to replicate anything we saw Orlando do defensively.
I don't think even if you believe that this team
has the screen navigation to run Boston off the three
point line.
Speaker 2: I would argue that's debatable.
Speaker 1: But you have heart, you have Ojananobi, you have Micheale Bridges,
you have Deuce McBride. Sure they do not have just
like the symphony of incredible rotations around the basket. When
like when Orlando is scrambling, it's it's fine, like someone's
gonna be in the right spot. When the Knicks are scrambling.
Speaker 3: You're not fine.
Speaker 1: Choose your own ev It's like it's choose your own adventure,
except they don't get to choose it.
Speaker 2: It's the other team kind of choosing their own adventure.
Speaker 1: So I I'd be interested to try it because if
it doesn't work, Infury, it's like, right, well, let's not
let Boston beat you from three and then this kind
of dissuades them going after the Karl Anthony towns Endoor
Jalen Brunson in the pick and roll. But I just
I don't see. I mean, to be fair, the Magic
are one of the three best defenses in the league
right now.
Speaker 2: It's not something but.
Speaker 1: The fact that they did that without Jalen Suggs, who's
their best defender.
Speaker 2: I just don't.
Speaker 1: Maybe if you play Mitchell Robinson, that's how Like, so
you have Towns like being more aggressive on the perimeter.
Speaker 2: I just don't. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I would argue that just giving the inconsistency we've seen
from Michale Bridges at points defensively, and then just having
Brunson in Towns and having to account for those minutes together,
I don't think they could duplicate what we saw from Orlando.
Speaker 3: He paused real quick, yeah, bird's choo.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And so just to stat I was looking up kind
of on the on that point. Essentially, Like so the
magic playing everybody's calling an island basketball or forcing Boston
to do that got the Celtics to isolate on just
under seventeen percent of their offensive possessions, which is up
from ten percent during the year. The interesting thing is
like that ten percent figure was the third highest in
the league. So Boston, like the magic made it extreme,
but Boston was being well, whether Boston wanted to do
it or not, because both their their points per play
was like, you know, just point nine to six point
ninety eight regular season versus posts, which is in like
the seventieth eightieth like it's good for an isolation possession.
But I think the takeaway is that the Celtics were
kind of what Orlando did was extreme, but it wasn't different.
Like Boston has been faced with having to isolate like
much more than a normal team in like throughout this year.
So if the Knicks think that that's like, well, that's
the way. I don't know. Boston also kind of is
pretty comfortable if you just make Jason Tatum take somebody
one on one or Jalen Brown, like, that's not going
to be new to them.
Speaker 2: No, it won't be.
Speaker 1: I don't the Knicks defending the Celtics is I don't
know what the pathways to them doing that. I think
it's honestly, I think you would have to if you
were to map out the ideal scenario, Karl Anthony Towns
or Jalen Brunton isn't on the floor, and that's just
a non Optionily.
Speaker 2: The other thing I'm.
Speaker 1: Monitoring tactically with this, and it's not like the Josh
Hart of it all Tims and Less unless Josh Hart's
and foul trouble, Josh Hart is gonna play And that's
when you kind of look at how he's this emotional
bell weather for the team and the stuff he does
on the glass, and you know, helping them push the
pace because man, I get so tired in the fourth
quarter of watching them just dribble into like eight seconds
of the shot. I was like, all right, now, we'll
set the ball screen. So I appreciate that. But the
Celtics and the Pistons did this, Like during the regular season,
they didn't.
Speaker 2: Have Duran on heart.
Speaker 1: The playoff series you saw a lot of Jaalen Duran
on Josh Hart and it it worked for the most
part against when when Duran was defending Josh Hart, the
Knick scored about one point zero one points per possession.
Speaker 2: That's not great.
Speaker 1: Now, during the regular season, Porzingis was the Celtics who
Celtics player who spent the most time on heart, the
Knicks offense average point nine to five points per possession.
In those instances when it's Al Horford, it's even lower,
point nine to two points per possession. The Celtics are
gonna do it again, and it almost doesn't I say almost.
It definitely doesn't matter how well Josh Hart is shooting
from three. He shot percentage wise fine against the Pistons
the volumes like under three attempts per game, and even
if he got hot, I'm gonna tell you, let's just
say Josh Hart went seven to ten from three in
every single game. I really don't think Boston's gonna care. Still,
I think that's right.
Speaker 3: I think it like there might be a game, like
you know, if you're just going through a series thinking
like how do that?
Speaker 2: Man?
Speaker 3: How did the Knicks get a couple here? Like one
is Heart's like you say, Heart is seven for eight
from three and and and the Knicks win that game.
The Celtics won't change their coverage. You know, They'll just
be like, yeah, you got that one, do it again.
And I don't think Heart can do it. It's interesting
you mentioned the Heart, like how the Celtics guard hert
and like just just what Heart's role is. That's very
much tied to Cat because the flip side of oh,
Durham's on Heart is like, well, Tobias Harris is on
Cat and the numbers. You know you've seen some version
of this throughout that we saw like Tobias Harrison Cat
is great. And then when it's Duraan on Cat that
like I mean for the Pistons, it was, and so
the corela the related idea here is for tactically for Boston,
like which big guy can you put on Cat? And
can you just make sure there's a big guy on
Cat all the time? And if you can, looks pretty
good for you.
Speaker 1: What I was gonna ask you is what is the
way to even combat the heart problem? Because I think
the Knicks have defaulted and this is a big reason why,
like the Jaylen brunts and Cat pick and roll, Like,
even when they've used it more, it doesn't feel like enough.
Speaker 2: It feels like the.
Speaker 1: Solution is will have Heart be the screener for brunts? Yeah,
and in theory, I guess that makes sense. But then
you're neutralizing Towns. Is there any merit to having Carl
Anthony town screen for Josh Hart or have Josh Hart
screen for Karl Anthony Towns and trying to force a
switch that way or that might because the thing that
they Boston's also done. They've had no qualms about having
Jason Tatum.
Speaker 3: On Karl Anthony Towns, right, which which is like that's
different than Tobias Harris. I guess like in a in
a way that should concern uh, I don't you know what. Sorry,
I think I misspoke because I framed it as if
like can the can the Celtics keep a big on Cat,
which is not what you want. You want you want
Tatum to be able to guard Cat and be the
Tobias Harris because that just works better defensively. The Pistons showed,
you know, when it's Harris on Cat that works better.
So that wasn't unclear. But yeah, no, to your point,
like I think there there could and should be a
lot of like off off ball like pre action screening
by the Knicks to just try, you know, good one
I said should say there will be, but you have to,
like you're not good enough to let the Celtic guard
you how they want to guard you. You have to
like be doing other stuff to get the matchups that
you prefer. Right, Like that's not just specific to the Knicks.
Maybe it's harder for the Knicks, but like that's just
something you have to be doing to engineer the matchups
you want.
Speaker 1: Right, And what I suggested I don't like, So the
end game would be you just want to get the
big on car because Jason Tatum on Josh Hart.
Speaker 2: That's not really a win for you.
Speaker 1: I think even a big, like let's say both the
Boston bigs around the court and you're bringing both of
them into this screen. Yeah, Josh Hart with I don't
know if that's a win for the Knicks, but having
a big and then it's so if a BIG's already
on Karl Anthony Town's, why do it. But if it's
one big, getting the big back on Karl Anthyt Town's
might make some sense. I just this feels like a
bod I don't want to spoil my pick, but this
just feels like I don't know what needs to happen
short of aliens abducting, Like, yeah, three fifths of the
Boston starting five for the Knicks to have a real
chance here. So what are you looking at? Unless you
have anything to add on the tactical front, what are
you looking at narratively for this series? Uh?
Speaker 3: Just I think we've talked about the end, but I
think Boston gets a pretty different challenge defending the Knicks
than they do Orlando. It's just it's just kind of
like a it's like a you know, doesn't it feel
like Boston more than any other team this year? Was
We're just kind of like it's like, think of our
Discord channel, Like we don't talk about the Celtics on
there because it's like wake me up in June, Like
they're just really good. Nothing that happens in the regular season,
you know, for good or ill is enough to like
make us really seriously have a conversation about them, because
it's like we're not, They're just talk about movies and
TV shows. Yeah, like because what are we going to
talk about. It's just you know, they won the title
and very convinced, like they were great, and they seem
just as you know, So this is I just view
the Knicks as I know you're down on the Knicks,
and for some pretty valid reasons as the team, like
you mentioned.
Speaker 1: You said this before, and I made a joke when
you were like, oh, it's gonna be they're gonna stress
test Boss's defense more than Orlando's offense.
Speaker 2: Didn't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are just points where that might not be true,
and that's what's so diffort.
Speaker 3: I mean, the thing is nobody stress tests the defense
like less than Orlando. So it's like that's a pretty
pretty safe take for me, but like I don't know,
and then the other side of it is the narrative
is tied together because for the Knicks, it's like, you
haven't beaten a good team like all year, Like you
just haven't done it for a number of reasons. Can
you do it once in this series? Like I don't
think you can do it for not to spoil my pick,
but like that is like if this is a sweep,
then the Knicks just like, oh, they just never beat
a good team all year. They're like, oh and ten
against the top three basically, right, that was the stat
that was bandied about all year, Like I just you've
talked a lot about how like this team is sort
of there's a cap on it with this current roster,
and the cap is just not high enough. This will
just be like the definitive proof of that if they
just get housed.
Speaker 1: And I think that's what I'm watching. And it was
the same thing in the Piston series, except now I
think you get to a point where it's what constitutes
success against the Celtics, to where you wouldn't fire TIBs,
to where you wouldn't look at making a trade, where
I think the move that everyone's focused on you want
a different type.
Speaker 2: Of big in here.
Speaker 1: But I just you have Karl Anthony Towns and like that.
He's a fantastic player, but you have so much financial
equity committed to him. The idea that you now need
to go out and spend more like whatever little is
left to your asset equity to get another big is
just I understand it.
Speaker 2: But that's to me, that's problematic.
Speaker 1: Like the way the Wolves giving up what they did
for Rudy Gobert, like that was still problematic. They've been
a really good team and ended up working out like
that's not when you have Carl, like when you have
this seven foot or in car, like that's not what
you want to be using all your best chips remaining on.
And I don't know what constitutes success. And I think
I'm not a Tom Thibodau defender. And I've gotten some
pushback because I basically said I don't I think Tom
Thibodeau is a problem.
Speaker 2: I don't think that he is the problem.
Speaker 1: I think the problem and will end up being the
cardinal sin is what they gave up for Michal Bridges,
which I don't is the fault McHale Bridges. It's they decided.
I understood the logic We talked about it at length.
At the time, I understood the logic. They waited, they
were responsible with their assets. Do you know what happened?
Jalen Brunson got too damn good to wait and the
Ojiannaobi trade worked out really well for them and the
Bridges trade. In theory, yes it was an overpay, but
it was someone that you've viewed as a finishing touch
to put you in the conversation with all of the
teams that you have lost to YEA this season. It
hasn't done that, And I don't know what the faut is.
You can't trade an outright first round pick this summer.
You're gonna be limited, like with your financial resources when
it comes to getting free agents if you lose in
four or five. Aside from firing Tom Thibodeau, I guess
it's a twofold question. Grant one, does another coach come
in here and make this team with basically this exact
same cores more of a threat to beat the Cavs
or Boston next year? And then two, If the answer
is no, do the Knicks have any way to like
because the move would be you want Josh Hart coming
back off the bench, and so you need a new starter,
which if recent weeks have been any indication, it cannot
be a Duce McBride type of just not making shots.
Speaker 3: I think that it's most likely that the coaching change
is what will happen, because it's pretty it's just easier
to talk yourself into the idea that like there's just
kind of like money on the left on the table
offensively with the talent that the Knicks have. It's just
like if you can just just let's not have Brunson
be like a threat to lead in usage every year
and not hav ingim be like, you know, a fifty
whatever his usage rate is in clutch situations, like a
little more dynamism. Figure out how to squeeze more value
out of having Cat as a spacing player, like you know,
Bridges can do a little OG showed he could do.
There's there's like more. It just needs to be more variety,
harder to game plan against for a playoff opponent than
it is. I so like I get, yeah, if the
Knicks get a game or two games and and and lose,
then like, yeah, I don't know what has to happen
for the Knicks to finish this postseason having lost this
series and say like, I think we just run it back,
Like I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be pretty hard for me to imagine that hypothetical.
Speaker 1: And it's I think the pushback would be, this is
their first year together, Colnton Town's trade didn't happen until
during training camp.
Speaker 2: Basically.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that comes back to what you I'm gonna
cite you citing me. There's just a cap on this team,
even at its peak, with the personnel, particularly on the
defensive end. Even if you think another coach comes in
here and gives you a more innovation. They were fifth
in points, score possession Offensively, you could make the playoff offense,
crunch time offense better.
Speaker 2: What is that doing for you?
Speaker 1: Like? How many more games is that worth against the
Celtics or the Caves. And in some ways, I think
for a lot of Knicks fans, and if Knicks fans
are listening comment get our discord, let me know, I
wonder if they more so fear like the Knicks pushing
this to six or seven, because then it them not
to make changes like changing the head coach.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you need to be sure there's an upgrade out there.
I think.
Speaker 1: I'm sure people say Kenny Atkinson came in and look
what he did for the Calves. Kenny Atkinson's still coaching
the Calves. Who was the coach out there that like
is it? Do you think it's Taylor Jenkins? Like, like,
who is the coach that you think is gonna come
in here and install like the principles and get more
out of this roster. I'm again, this is not a
pro keeping Tibbs thing. He's he's so problematic in a
lot of his stubbornness. Yeah, but like I don't know
that another co coach like if Quinn Snyder was available, Okay,
maybe like that's a name, Eric was available, Yeah, sure,
But like of the names that are out there and
this team isn't This front office at least hasn't shown
like will they go off the beaten path and go
after a first time or like a former assistant like
Chris Quinn or a if Becky Hammond is still going
to receive consideration for gigs or do they have the
gall to do that because you are gamp like it
doesn't work out, Like, okay, you've kind of wasted your window.
Speaker 2: We know how short that these windows are now.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean that maybe we should save some
of this for a hypothetical post mortem for the Celtics
right right when the Knicks sweep. Do you want to
talk to X factors?
Speaker 2: Because get the predictions?
Speaker 3: I mean for Boston, Like, isn't it just Al Horford?
Because like he's the big that can guard Cat who's
also not a big, and then you just like that's
best of both worlds. We're fine, Like he can move,
so he's also he's sort of like giving you the
having a forward on him if it's not going to
be Tatum, which I think you're right it probably will
be Tatum a lot. But if Horford can just guard
him and then hit threes, you know, I just like
he could. You know, he could swing the series in
average seven points a game. Like that's not an outlet,
that's not out of the question.
Speaker 1: Now, Horford's going to be a playoff X factor until
he's like seventy years old, right, So the next year
I do I put Drew Holliday just because I was
struggling to find one. There's the whole jumper stuff, But
I think the bigger thing is Jalen Brown spent the
most time the right season guarding Jailhen bruntson well, Boston,
given the stuff he's been dealing with his knee, look
to insulate him at all. And if they do, I'm
assuming then Drew Holliday is going to be the one
that takes on even more of the bruns in role.
Speaker 2: And I just I mean, that doesn't bother me, but
it would just like that. That's why I had him
as the X factor.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean for the Knicks, it's just deuce like,
is he gonna make shots? And if he's not, then
I guess we're playing everybody forty eight minutes, you know,
like he just because you're gonna see it. Not that
the Knicks usually stagger their minutes this way necessarily, but
like Pritchard's gonna come in, and I'm gonna assume Prichard
will give you like pretty solid minutes against opposing backups
to the extent the Knicks play them. Can McBride be
half as good? Can he be half as productive?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 3: Can he can he do the Josh Hart thing? And oh,
six of eight from three?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 3: And that's why the Knicks one game two or you know,
that kind of thing, because if McBride's not gonna just
like play over his head for a game or so
like like where the Knicks turning.
Speaker 1: So I think what proves that that's a good X
actor pick is that because if he doesn't able to
do that stuff, we're gonna be asking, like oakan campaign,
how much campaign can hold up in this?
Speaker 3: Maybe campaign can when you a playoff game. He tends
to do that.
Speaker 1: Once he get that in Game one against the which incredible,
also problematic that like that's what it took, So I
just have Josh Hard again.
Speaker 2: I think he was probably my X factor in the
Piston series.
Speaker 1: That's the like he's the one that draws in the
like the gimmicky defense and his ability, like no, they're
never gonna guard him, but if he hits enough threes,
it's it's not wasted possessions. Can he get offensive rebounds
to create second chance opportunities if you're gonna use him
as the screener, like are the Nicks able to capitalize
off that? Or is he next factor because we're gonna
run more Karl Anthony Towns and Brunson won five pick
and roll and someone's still gonna be guarding Josh Hart
and roaming off him to try and gum that up.
I think it's just it, and we know he's gonna
be playing a ton of minutes, so I think it's
just I think it's him, And it's also the Knicks
are gonna play reliably like maybe six and a half
players maybe, So your your pickings are slim.
Speaker 3: Like we just named the only possible X factors. Everybody
else must play well.
Speaker 1: For the go with Mitch Robinson if you wanted to,
But like, I just feel like he's kind of maxed
out at seventeen minutes per game. Now, there's been flashes
of the towns like Mitch minutes in which they've been good.
I don't know if the Celtics are a team. I
mean they do play two bigs, but like they're both
perimeter oriented, right.
Speaker 3: They're they they're bigs, but they're also not like in
some important ways. So yeah, it's it's tough for him
because he's a big in like all of the traditional ways.
So like he's he's kind of the one that stands out.
Speaker 2: What is your prediction for this series?
Speaker 3: I would just have to say Celtics in five. I
it's does it does it make you feel better?
Speaker 2: That?
Speaker 3: To me? It is closer to Celtics in six than
a sweep, but I'm going I'm going with five.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Celtics in five as well. I
think that there will just we said I think I
said this leading into the Magic series.
Speaker 2: There's just gonna be a game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, when it's happening like you know, consecutively where Boston's
offense doesn't have it, where they themselves devolve into one
on one stuff necessarily forcing it, we will see a
hallmark at least one of them. Oh, Karl Anthony Towns
is like spacing out to thirty feet knocking down threes,
and then he'll never do it again for a couple
of games. I think the Knicks will get one. But
this does seem like a series. I don't mean to
be just a negative Nelly on the Knicks here, but
like this series, because you're gonna see them playing the
Celtics again and at least four times.
Speaker 2: I do think it's going to reinforce just.
Speaker 1: How far away right they are to that upper echelon
of title contention.
Speaker 3: And like, if you're gonna say the nih the Knicks
could push this to six or seven or win it.
It's like sure, but like, where's the evidence for that,
because there's none in the regular season. There's very little
that we got out of the Detroit series. And it's
just just like, I don't think you're gonna need to
you really got to sell me, because I you know,
I want to be fair about it, but I just
don't know what, Like what points are you what are
you pointing to as like here's why the Knicks you know,
are getting underrated or whatever by us.
Speaker 1: Something happened with Jason Tatum's wrist and he doesn't play
for the rest of the series, because I might still
pick the Celtics in six if you told me Jason
Patum wasn't playing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Oh, that'd be an interesting hypothetical. All right, Thanks
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