WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:04.360 I don't know that I'm doing victory parades for the 2 00:00:04.360 --> 00:00:10.160 most recent military strikes against Iran just yet. So as 3 00:00:10.160 --> 00:00:13.000 we all know, on Saturday, the United States participated in 4 00:00:13.000 --> 00:00:17.120 an operation dropped a bunch of bunker buster bombs at 5 00:00:17.120 --> 00:00:22.519 the Iranian nuclear facility at FORDAU and two other sites 6 00:00:22.879 --> 00:00:27.160 also engaged in bombing operations. Go in, bomb get out. 7 00:00:29.719 --> 00:00:37.159 If that is indeed the end of the story, that's 8 00:00:37.200 --> 00:00:42.719 great mission accomplished. President Trump did it. He threaded the 9 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:50.679 needle between to the scilla and charybdis of our great 10 00:00:50.719 --> 00:00:54.960 fears regarding Iran. On the one hand, not doing anything 11 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:57.960 and letting Iran get a nuclear weapon not going to happen. 12 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:01.479 That's on the one side. On the other side, the 13 00:01:01.600 --> 00:01:06.519 risk of getting drawn into a longer, more involved war. 14 00:01:10.000 --> 00:01:14.000 I don't know that we can confidently say that we're 15 00:01:14.599 --> 00:01:17.719 out of the risk of that latter thing. We need 16 00:01:17.760 --> 00:01:25.480 to wait to see what happens, because there's still a 17 00:01:25.519 --> 00:01:30.959 lot that could happen. Iran is certainly weakened, it is 18 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:35.640 certainly in a much worse place. The Israeli attacks led 19 00:01:35.680 --> 00:01:42.719 to the decimation of its major military leadership. Worse than decimation, 20 00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:45.760 by the way the word decimate is really cool. It 21 00:01:45.799 --> 00:01:48.879 comes from this practice in the Roman Army when the 22 00:01:48.959 --> 00:01:52.719 Roman Army, when a particular army unit had behaved in 23 00:01:52.920 --> 00:01:58.560 a horrible, dishonorable, disobedient way, decimation was a punishment meted 24 00:01:58.599 --> 00:02:01.920 out on that unit of the army, which basically meant 25 00:02:02.480 --> 00:02:07.840 that every tenth man was just executed and they would 26 00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:10.599 have to run among their fellows while their fellow soldiers 27 00:02:10.639 --> 00:02:14.919 beat them to death. Yeah, that'll get your attention. Okay, 28 00:02:15.000 --> 00:02:19.159 I guess I better straighten up and fly right as 29 00:02:19.199 --> 00:02:21.280 I'm beating one of my fellow soldiers to death, and 30 00:02:21.319 --> 00:02:31.639 it could just as well be me anyway. The Iran anyway, 31 00:02:31.680 --> 00:02:35.599 the Iranian military leadership has been completely decimated. It seems 32 00:02:35.639 --> 00:02:39.240 that their nuclear development capacity has been decimated. I don't know, 33 00:02:41.280 --> 00:02:49.759 I would imagine. So there's intelligence assessments sort of indicating that, yes, 34 00:02:49.800 --> 00:02:52.159 it seems like the Ford out site was completely destroyed, 35 00:02:52.280 --> 00:02:55.240 or at the very least, if it's not completely destroyed, 36 00:02:55.719 --> 00:03:01.400 it is very close to completely destroyed. I'm not so 37 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:04.960 one hundred percent certain about what Iran's capacity was. I 38 00:03:04.960 --> 00:03:07.080 don't know that anyone in the West is really one 39 00:03:07.159 --> 00:03:11.120 hundred percent certain about what Iran's capacity was for actually 40 00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:15.719 developing nuclear weapons. I feel like we've had people warning 41 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:18.240 that Iran is on the you know, on the one 42 00:03:18.319 --> 00:03:20.879 yard line of developing a nuke. Ohle, They're only a 43 00:03:20.879 --> 00:03:23.080 month away from a nuke. They've been only a month 44 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:24.960 away from a nuke for like, you know, the last 45 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:29.960 twenty years. So forgiving me if I'm a little skeptical 46 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:33.840 to that point. But I'm not the guy in the 47 00:03:33.840 --> 00:03:37.680 Oval office. I'm not the guy getting the intelligence directly 48 00:03:37.919 --> 00:03:41.240 from the Israelis and from American intelligence sources, So I 49 00:03:41.319 --> 00:03:46.360 don't know Trump does. So that those were the two 50 00:03:46.400 --> 00:03:48.800 big risks was letting Iran alone and letting them develop 51 00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:51.800 a nuclear weapon, which I think is intolerable. I think 52 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:55.599 it gives even if Iran doesn't use it, it gives 53 00:03:55.639 --> 00:03:59.840 them an intolerable amount of negotiating leverage within the region 54 00:04:00.280 --> 00:04:05.439 and gives them standing in status while they continue to 55 00:04:05.479 --> 00:04:10.639 be the world's chief exporter of terrorism through their various proxies. 56 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:17.680 So it stops that from happening, but does it draw 57 00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:19.759 us into a broader conflict? And this is what I'm 58 00:04:20.199 --> 00:04:22.360 afraid of, and I don't think we can know that 59 00:04:22.560 --> 00:04:28.480 right now. Iran is clearly I would say, not going 60 00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:33.199 to take this lying down, or they have to. I 61 00:04:33.199 --> 00:04:40.279 think they have to demonstrate some kind of response in 62 00:04:40.399 --> 00:04:44.120 order for the regime in Iran to maintain some shred 63 00:04:44.160 --> 00:04:49.079 of credibility. And this is one of the geopolitical things 64 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:52.519 about Iran. There's all these people have been saying, all 65 00:04:52.560 --> 00:04:59.920 these people pushing for regime change in Iran, they've been saying. 66 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:05.560 Well, eighty percent of the population doesn't even like the 67 00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:08.839 Islamic Republic. Eighty percent of the population doesn't even like 68 00:05:08.879 --> 00:05:11.120 the rule by the Ayatolas. They don't like the current 69 00:05:11.199 --> 00:05:15.160 Islamic Republic. You know, remember that Iran was under the 70 00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:19.199 shaw and it was this open, westernized, you know, Middle 71 00:05:19.240 --> 00:05:23.120 Eastern country in the seventies. It's like, okay, but that 72 00:05:23.279 --> 00:05:27.959 was in the seventies. We don't know what it's like now. 73 00:05:28.000 --> 00:05:32.360 We don't have a grasp on what actual Iranian popular 74 00:05:32.439 --> 00:05:37.399 sentiment is right now, whether that population is actually largely 75 00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:40.839 satisfied with the Islamic Republic, whether they are largely dissatisfied 76 00:05:40.839 --> 00:05:45.279 with the Islamic Republic, whether they are maybe dissatisfied but 77 00:05:45.360 --> 00:05:50.879 unwilling to overthrow them, dissatisfied with the Islamic Republic, but 78 00:05:51.120 --> 00:05:55.160 maybe also still really hating Israel and really hating America. 79 00:05:56.199 --> 00:06:00.399 You know. There there was a story someone mentioned on Twitter. 80 00:06:00.480 --> 00:06:02.560 I think it was Gray Connolly, whom I followed. Was 81 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:04.920 a really interesting guy. He's an Australian lawyer and a 82 00:06:04.920 --> 00:06:12.040 military historian. He was noting that during the Iraq Iran War, 83 00:06:13.399 --> 00:06:17.079 the son of the Sha who had been oustered. You know, 84 00:06:17.279 --> 00:06:20.560 the Iran was governed by this guy, the Sha Shaw 85 00:06:21.319 --> 00:06:25.439 was in charge. He gets thrown out and the Iranians 86 00:06:25.480 --> 00:06:29.160 replace him with the Islamic Republic and ruled by the Iatolas. 87 00:06:30.199 --> 00:06:33.399 During the Iraq Iran War, the son of the Shaw 88 00:06:33.800 --> 00:06:38.319 volunteered to the Islamic Republic to let him come back 89 00:06:38.680 --> 00:06:43.240 and fly warplanes because he was a pilot, to fly 90 00:06:43.480 --> 00:06:46.920 warplanes to help the Islamic Republic in their fight against Iraq. 91 00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:52.360 Because basically, I guess there was sort of this attitude 92 00:06:52.399 --> 00:06:55.759 of like, Okay, yeah, we disagree about our internal Iranian politics, 93 00:06:55.800 --> 00:06:58.160 but boy, we don't like these Iraqis, so we're gonna, 94 00:06:58.199 --> 00:07:00.519 you know, let me come back to I realize you 95 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:02.439 oustreed my dad, but let me come back to volunteer 96 00:07:02.439 --> 00:07:08.480 to fight for you. I mean that's the and he 97 00:07:08.560 --> 00:07:12.240 brings up that point just to demonstrate the Iranian people 98 00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:15.360 may not like the Shah. I don't know, maybe they do, 99 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:17.959 maybe they are excuse me, the Iranian people may not 100 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:22.079 like the existing Islamic Republic of Iran. Maybe they do, 101 00:07:22.439 --> 00:07:26.439 maybe they don't. But there's no that doesn't necessarily follow 102 00:07:26.519 --> 00:07:29.560 that they'll be so delighted at Israel and America for 103 00:07:29.639 --> 00:07:33.839 blowing up all their nuclear sites and decimating Iran's you know, 104 00:07:33.959 --> 00:07:38.160 capacity militarily as a country, and that they'll be so 105 00:07:38.399 --> 00:07:42.720 delighted with it that they'll overthrow the Islamic Republic. That 106 00:07:42.759 --> 00:07:46.879 does not necessarily follow at all. Maybe, if anything, it 107 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:50.199 hardens their support for the Islamic Republic. And that's the 108 00:07:50.199 --> 00:07:56.319 other thing is is this sense that American political sentiment 109 00:07:56.439 --> 00:08:02.959 can shift very significantly as a result of current events. 110 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:09.480 I think popular support for Donald Trump went up after 111 00:08:09.680 --> 00:08:16.959 the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania. Stuff happens, and it 112 00:08:17.120 --> 00:08:23.480 changes Americans' attitudes towards politics. I wouldn't be surprised if 113 00:08:23.959 --> 00:08:26.279 support for Trump went up a little bit after this 114 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:32.399 Iranian strength. So I would say in Iran, probably it's 115 00:08:32.399 --> 00:08:37.600 the same thing. Do we think that Israel and America 116 00:08:37.679 --> 00:08:39.519 blowing up a bunch of stuff in Iran. Is that 117 00:08:39.559 --> 00:08:43.440 going to make the Iranians more inclined towards them and 118 00:08:43.559 --> 00:08:48.279 less inclined towards their current ruling government. I don't know. 119 00:08:48.519 --> 00:08:51.399 I don't necessarily think so. I think, if anything, it's 120 00:08:51.399 --> 00:08:53.879 going to make them continue to be more angry at Israel. 121 00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:56.559 It's not like Middle Eastern populations need more of an 122 00:08:56.600 --> 00:09:05.360 excuse to hate Israel, and they all, you know, they've 123 00:09:05.360 --> 00:09:11.159 been fairly consistent about not liking the United States. And 124 00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:14.320 if you hate Israel and you hate the United States 125 00:09:14.360 --> 00:09:17.679 and they keep attacking you, maybe you retreat to being 126 00:09:17.879 --> 00:09:23.919 more supportive of the Islamic Republic rather than less now, 127 00:09:24.799 --> 00:09:28.200 unless the Islamic Republic shows itself to be totally ineffectual. 128 00:09:30.840 --> 00:09:33.200 And I think that's what we're gonna wait and see. First, 129 00:09:33.200 --> 00:09:38.480 we heard different stories, reports, indications that the Iranians might 130 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:42.879 engage in you know, one of the consistent things that 131 00:09:42.960 --> 00:09:46.799 happened in Iraq was you would have Iranian backed militias 132 00:09:47.200 --> 00:09:51.519 operating in Iraq who would fight and kill Americans. And 133 00:09:51.960 --> 00:09:55.360 that's where Iran had so much blood on its hands. 134 00:09:55.600 --> 00:10:01.440 It's why President Trump killed their General Solomani back during 135 00:10:01.519 --> 00:10:05.879 the first Trump administration was because they kept funding these 136 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:09.000 different militia groups in Iraq that would attack American soldiers. 137 00:10:09.320 --> 00:10:15.000 So there was this indication, this thought very shortly around 138 00:10:15.039 --> 00:10:17.399 the time of the bombing, that Iranians would ramp up 139 00:10:17.480 --> 00:10:23.039 their attacks on American military personnel currently operating in Iraq 140 00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:29.879 and in Syria. Maybe that'll happen if they do. What's 141 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:34.720 the United States going to do? I mean, sit there 142 00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:39.600 and take it? Presumably not. And this is where we 143 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:44.720 got to see what kind of a involvement, what kind 144 00:10:44.759 --> 00:10:51.559 of developed involvement takes place after this. That's the rub 145 00:10:52.159 --> 00:10:54.840 So that's why I'm not at a point of saying, ah, 146 00:10:54.919 --> 00:10:59.279 yes we did it, we declare victory President Trump perfectly 147 00:10:59.440 --> 00:11:02.080 thread of the new We're not on the hook for 148 00:11:02.240 --> 00:11:05.720 regime change. Well, we don't know that. Could these events 149 00:11:05.759 --> 00:11:09.000 precipitate some kind of toppling of the existing Iranian regime? 150 00:11:09.039 --> 00:11:14.360 And if it does, what kind of babysitting would whatever 151 00:11:14.720 --> 00:11:21.200 new thing comes into its place need? And will our 152 00:11:21.759 --> 00:11:25.240 neocon foreign policy establishment be okay? If say Russia tries 153 00:11:25.279 --> 00:11:29.240 to come in and nurse whatever new thing comes aboard, 154 00:11:30.080 --> 00:11:33.279 just as they will not be okay with that. And 155 00:11:33.600 --> 00:11:35.960 that's the thing with that's the thing I'm so concerned 156 00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:39.720 about with regime change. I think people are proposing this 157 00:11:39.840 --> 00:11:41.840 idea that if we do just a couple more air 158 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:44.799 strikes we could topple the Iranian regime, that maybe the 159 00:11:44.799 --> 00:11:47.480 Iranians ready to get rid of the Ayatola, and maybe 160 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:49.120 we do a couple more air strikes, maybe we could 161 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:54.120 even take Komani out, could take the Ayatola out, and 162 00:11:54.159 --> 00:11:57.000 then a new regime. And how much better would that 163 00:11:57.039 --> 00:12:02.159 be if the Islamic Republic was not governing Iran, if 164 00:12:02.159 --> 00:12:04.440 the Iranians had some other kind of government that was 165 00:12:04.519 --> 00:12:07.039 going to just not be the world's leading state sponsor 166 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:11.679 of terrorism, Well that'd be great. But I think it's 167 00:12:11.759 --> 00:12:16.759 crazy to think that such a government wouldn't need babysitting 168 00:12:18.519 --> 00:12:24.759 in the form of American soldiers. Of course it would 169 00:12:24.799 --> 00:12:28.159 need that. I mean, just think about it. First, If 170 00:12:28.159 --> 00:12:31.519 they topple the Islamic Republic, it's not like, you know, 171 00:12:31.559 --> 00:12:34.759 it's not like zero people support the current Islamic Republic. 172 00:12:34.840 --> 00:12:38.240 Clearly millions and millions and millions and millions of people do. 173 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:43.600 Probably a large percentage of the army does of their 174 00:12:43.600 --> 00:12:51.639 military forces do? And again it is relevant Ted Kruz 175 00:12:51.759 --> 00:12:54.840 to understand that there are ninety million people in the country, 176 00:12:54.960 --> 00:12:59.000 twice as many, twice as many people as live in Iraq, 177 00:12:59.399 --> 00:13:05.879 almost to as many people as live in Afghanistan. So 178 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:09.320 if a new good government comes aboard, I find it 179 00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:11.320 hard to believe that there won't be some level of 180 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:14.039 civil war, and then the United States will have to decide, Well, 181 00:13:14.120 --> 00:13:16.360 it's very much in our national interest not to have 182 00:13:16.399 --> 00:13:19.840 the Islamic Republic running things, and it's more in our 183 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:22.559 interest to have this side win. So what are we 184 00:13:22.559 --> 00:13:25.559 gonna do? Are we gonna just sit there and let 185 00:13:25.639 --> 00:13:29.480 a civil war break out? Have these two sides duke 186 00:13:29.559 --> 00:13:34.279 it out. Russia may very well support one side over another. 187 00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:37.360 And if the Russians get involved, boy, the pressure will 188 00:13:37.360 --> 00:13:39.639 be on us to get involved. See this is why 189 00:13:39.679 --> 00:13:43.279 regime change would have been a terrible idea. I think 190 00:13:43.519 --> 00:13:47.360 that that there's no way regime change happens quickly. I 191 00:13:47.399 --> 00:13:49.600 mean I would support regime change too if I knew 192 00:13:49.600 --> 00:13:54.039 it could be quick, snappy, easy, see you later. Ayatola 193 00:13:55.159 --> 00:13:58.120 come back in Shaw and the Shaw is greeted with 194 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:03.399 garlands of flowers and has one Iranian approval rating. That's 195 00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:07.240 not gonna happen. It just won't that that that's ridiculous 196 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:16.759 to think that that's gonna happen. So now it maybe 197 00:14:16.879 --> 00:14:20.960 we haven't gotten to that point, And I think that's 198 00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:24.360 why I've been saying all along. Oddly enough, the one 199 00:14:24.480 --> 00:14:30.559 person I trust more than anybody in all this is 200 00:14:30.639 --> 00:14:36.879 Donald Trump. And I feel like this time with Trump, 201 00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:44.720 rather than last time, he's surrounded by advisors who all 202 00:14:44.919 --> 00:14:51.440 kind of think simpatico with him. I think Vance very 203 00:14:51.519 --> 00:14:54.159 much is aligned with Trump. I don't think there's a 204 00:14:54.200 --> 00:14:56.360 weird thing like there was, you know, under Trump, like 205 00:14:56.399 --> 00:14:58.519 Mike Pence didn't agree with him about a lot of things. 206 00:14:58.600 --> 00:15:00.759 I don't think Vance is like that. I think Vance 207 00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:05.000 is very much believes in Trump on a lot of things. 208 00:15:05.080 --> 00:15:07.759 Maybe maybe one or two things they might I think 209 00:15:07.799 --> 00:15:11.120 Vance is probably more socially conservative than Trump. But I 210 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:13.159 think Vance is totally on board. I think Rubio is 211 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:17.120 totally on board. I think Hegxeth is totally on board. 212 00:15:17.879 --> 00:15:22.559 If anything, I think Tulci Gabbard as the head of 213 00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:27.639 the Director of National Intelligence, I mean, she seems to 214 00:15:27.679 --> 00:15:30.679 be upset and isolated because she didn't even want to 215 00:15:30.720 --> 00:15:35.159 do this. She didn't even want to do this initial 216 00:15:35.440 --> 00:15:39.039 military strike. And seems on the outs that way. But 217 00:15:39.120 --> 00:15:42.480 it doesn't seem like there are too many people that 218 00:15:42.840 --> 00:15:44.600 It really doesn't seem like there are too many people 219 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:50.000 in the administration who are talking about regime change. Everyone 220 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:53.120 is afraid of being drawn into a broader conflict and 221 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:55.159 doesn't want to do something that would draw into a 222 00:15:55.159 --> 00:15:58.879 broader conflict. So oddly enough, I feel like I trust 223 00:15:58.960 --> 00:16:04.879 Trump more than I trust anyone else. But he did 224 00:16:04.919 --> 00:16:11.039 take this step, and we won't know the ultimate success 225 00:16:11.039 --> 00:16:12.879 of it. I think you honestly, this is the kind 226 00:16:12.879 --> 00:16:16.159 of thing. It's like, it's like when a football team, 227 00:16:16.919 --> 00:16:19.759 you know, has their draft during the NFL Draft and 228 00:16:19.799 --> 00:16:21.759 they get a slate of players and it's like, Wow, 229 00:16:21.799 --> 00:16:23.679 what a great draft. It's like, well, you don't know 230 00:16:23.720 --> 00:16:25.200 if it's a great draft. You've got to wait like 231 00:16:25.200 --> 00:16:28.039 two or three years. You might have to wait like 232 00:16:28.080 --> 00:16:30.799 at least a year and maybe two years before you 233 00:16:30.840 --> 00:16:34.720 can fully assess whether the forty nine ers draft in 234 00:16:35.159 --> 00:16:37.960 you know, twenty twenty five was particularly good. I mean, 235 00:16:38.000 --> 00:16:41.320 we got to see how these players develop. I feel 236 00:16:41.320 --> 00:16:44.000 the same way with this air striking against a ron 237 00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:48.720 We can't be one hundred percent sure that it was 238 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:51.840 successful until we wait a little to assess. All right, 239 00:16:51.879 --> 00:16:55.879 when we return, We'll have more discussing all of this, 240 00:16:57.279 --> 00:17:00.600 and I might even dive into the question of the 241 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:04.880 constitutionality legality of the president doing this air strike in 242 00:17:04.920 --> 00:17:06.960 the first place. That's next on the John Girardi Show. 243 00:17:08.920 --> 00:17:11.799 One thing to note about all this is where do 244 00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:17.119 the American people stand? And then more specifically, where do 245 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:26.000 Trump supporters stand the American people. I feel like this 246 00:17:26.039 --> 00:17:28.200 is one of the problems about pulling the American people 247 00:17:28.200 --> 00:17:32.160 about military interventions is do you support a limited intervention 248 00:17:32.279 --> 00:17:36.640 of just a bombing attack on Iranian nuclear sites? Like, 249 00:17:36.960 --> 00:17:40.279 if you present the question as, hey, what if the 250 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:44.039 ultimate best case scenario happens and we're totally not drawn 251 00:17:44.039 --> 00:17:46.559 into a larger conflict and it's just a limited, one 252 00:17:46.599 --> 00:17:50.880 time run and it destroys all of Iran's nuclear capabilities, Yeah, 253 00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:58.279 overwhelming majority of Americans are like, oh, that's great. Sure. If, 254 00:17:58.480 --> 00:18:02.319 on the other hand, you pull it as do you 255 00:18:02.359 --> 00:18:05.480 want the United States involved in another Middle Eastern conflict, 256 00:18:05.960 --> 00:18:10.359 Everyone's gonna say, well, no, that sounds terrible, and it 257 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:13.039 does sound terrible. And that's the problem with how do 258 00:18:13.079 --> 00:18:18.480 you pull these things to actually gauge American popular sentiment. Now, 259 00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:22.119 there's one way of pulling. You know. One poll that's 260 00:18:22.160 --> 00:18:24.119 been brought up is that only thirty one percent of 261 00:18:24.119 --> 00:18:29.920 Americans actually view Iran as a serious threat. True, but 262 00:18:30.279 --> 00:18:33.200 it's also the American people don't know much about Iran. 263 00:18:35.359 --> 00:18:39.920 Our policy makers don't know much about Iran. Ted Cruz 264 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:42.559 didn't even know how many people lived in Iran. I 265 00:18:42.640 --> 00:18:44.480 continue to think, by the way, that that was not 266 00:18:44.559 --> 00:18:47.880 a gotcha question that Ted Cruz got the idea that 267 00:18:48.240 --> 00:18:50.799 you're a United States senator, you might be called to 268 00:18:50.880 --> 00:18:53.680 vote on this. You're on the air saying you want 269 00:18:53.720 --> 00:18:58.599 regime change, you damn well better understand how difficult that 270 00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:00.400 would be. And one of the things of understanding out 271 00:19:00.400 --> 00:19:03.920 difficult that would be is having some sense of how 272 00:19:03.960 --> 00:19:07.759 big and populous Iran is, which makes the whole regime 273 00:19:07.880 --> 00:19:18.839 change thing way harder. So this notion that anyway Ted 274 00:19:18.920 --> 00:19:23.279 Cruz annoys me to no end. I find his shtick 275 00:19:24.519 --> 00:19:31.200 to be tiresome. He is preachy, preening, self laudatory. I 276 00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:34.079 can't stand listening to him for more than like five 277 00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:40.079 minutes anyway, somehow like not that Donald Trump isn't you know, 278 00:19:40.160 --> 00:19:44.000 it's so weird. I have more like I'm more capable 279 00:19:44.039 --> 00:19:46.640 of listening to Trump praise himself because I think Trump 280 00:19:46.839 --> 00:19:50.680 it's part of his it's obviously shtick, like some of it, 281 00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:54.960 like it's so over the top sometimes about how everything 282 00:19:54.960 --> 00:19:57.480 he does is the best and greatest that it's like funny. 283 00:19:57.759 --> 00:20:01.279 But when Cruz does this fun oh oh Shuck's just 284 00:20:01.319 --> 00:20:03.680 a simple, normal guy who went to Harvard Law School 285 00:20:03.680 --> 00:20:05.759 and is a very high level lawyer, and it's a 286 00:20:05.839 --> 00:20:09.400 very incredibly ambitious, high level political operative. But I'm just 287 00:20:09.440 --> 00:20:13.000 a normal Texan just like you. I just cannot stand 288 00:20:13.279 --> 00:20:21.160 Ted Cruz anyway. So I'm basically I long and short 289 00:20:21.160 --> 00:20:24.599 of this is I don't exactly even know where the 290 00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:28.240 American people are. I think the thing is, in all likelihood, 291 00:20:28.240 --> 00:20:32.680 the American people will follow success or follow failure. If 292 00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:38.400 this is all and we destroyed Iran's nuclear program and 293 00:20:38.519 --> 00:20:41.319 we're not going to really be drawn into any larger 294 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:44.119 conflict other than if there's just a few little scraps 295 00:20:44.119 --> 00:20:47.039 with Iranians trying to attack Americans in one or two 296 00:20:47.160 --> 00:20:50.279 isolated places and that's it. And long term, we're not 297 00:20:50.359 --> 00:20:53.279 even thinking about this. Americans will look back on this 298 00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:57.599 whole episode and think, great, what a success. If, on 299 00:20:57.640 --> 00:20:59.920 the other hand, we get drawn into a much longer, 300 00:21:00.440 --> 00:21:04.319 more protracted conflict, Americans are not going to be happy 301 00:21:04.319 --> 00:21:09.960 about this. And I disagree with some of the sort 302 00:21:10.000 --> 00:21:14.799 of maga super maga folks who didn't want to get involved, 303 00:21:14.920 --> 00:21:17.599 who are saying Donald Trump is burning the bridges of 304 00:21:17.640 --> 00:21:21.519 his magabase. His magabase will be abandoning him for this 305 00:21:21.680 --> 00:21:24.119 decision to break his promises and get us involved in 306 00:21:24.119 --> 00:21:30.200 the Middle East. First of all, the only thing, if 307 00:21:30.240 --> 00:21:32.839 there is one thing that Trump supporters love, it's Trump. 308 00:21:33.559 --> 00:21:38.119 That's it. They are more inclined to trust him than 309 00:21:38.279 --> 00:21:43.039 any Trump aligned commentator ever. If you know, they like 310 00:21:43.279 --> 00:21:45.640 Elon Musk only in so far as he travels with 311 00:21:45.680 --> 00:21:48.519 Donald Trump. They like Tucker Carlson only in so far 312 00:21:48.599 --> 00:21:50.720 as he travels with Donald Trump. They like Candess Owns 313 00:21:50.720 --> 00:21:52.480 only in so far as she travels with Donald Trump. 314 00:21:52.480 --> 00:21:54.119 They liked Elsea Gabbard only in so far as she 315 00:21:54.160 --> 00:21:57.160 travels with Donald Trump. If all of those people leave 316 00:21:57.240 --> 00:21:59.720 and say Trump has abandoned his principles. You know where 317 00:21:59.720 --> 00:22:03.039 most Trump supporters are still gonna stick with. They're still 318 00:22:03.079 --> 00:22:06.000 gonna stick with Trump. He's the guy who has their 319 00:22:06.039 --> 00:22:10.400 loyalty end of the day. That's just the reality of 320 00:22:10.440 --> 00:22:18.279 how most Trump supporters are gonna go. And again, I 321 00:22:19.000 --> 00:22:23.039 don't think that most Trump supporters are dogmatic about this. 322 00:22:23.119 --> 00:22:26.839 I think they broadly don't want protracted, long Middle Eastern 323 00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:29.119 involvement Middle Eastern wars. But I think everyone on the 324 00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:31.200 Trump pro Trump side was like, that was awesome when 325 00:22:31.200 --> 00:22:34.279 Trump took out Sulimani and was worth it and it 326 00:22:34.359 --> 00:22:38.640 didn't pull us into a much broader conflict and took 327 00:22:38.680 --> 00:22:40.920 out this guy who was killing a bunch of Americans. 328 00:22:41.279 --> 00:22:45.559 Good job. I think they're gonna view this if this 329 00:22:46.039 --> 00:22:51.119 intervention winds up having the limited long term effect that 330 00:22:51.160 --> 00:22:55.160 the Solamani attack did. I think Trump supporters are not 331 00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:58.200 gonna give a crap about the fact that, oh, he 332 00:22:58.279 --> 00:23:01.000 bombed another country. I think think they're gonna be okay 333 00:23:01.039 --> 00:23:05.119 with it because for one thing, they trust Trump. They 334 00:23:05.200 --> 00:23:08.240 like Trump, and the thing that they don't it's not 335 00:23:08.400 --> 00:23:10.440 any intervention in the Middle East that they don't like. 336 00:23:10.519 --> 00:23:13.039 What they don't like is getting US involved in a 337 00:23:13.079 --> 00:23:17.640 long protracted nation building project. That's what most of the 338 00:23:17.680 --> 00:23:21.400 American population doesn't like. So I don't think we're out 339 00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:23.720 of the woods yet. I think there's still a chance 340 00:23:23.759 --> 00:23:31.960 of us getting pulled into some broader thing. But I 341 00:23:32.039 --> 00:23:35.000 certainly don't think Trump supporters are gonna flee now. When 342 00:23:35.000 --> 00:23:37.039 we return, I want to talk about the legality of 343 00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:42.960 Trump initiating these strikes. That's next on the John Gerardi Show. 344 00:23:44.839 --> 00:23:46.920 I want to talk about a point that it's a 345 00:23:46.960 --> 00:23:49.960 little tired and it's a little hackneyed because it keeps 346 00:23:50.279 --> 00:23:56.279 happening every time a president decides to initiate a strike. 347 00:23:56.440 --> 00:24:01.200 The question sort of rises ineffectually from conservatives. Didn't he 348 00:24:01.319 --> 00:24:04.960 need to, like ask for authorization of military force first? 349 00:24:05.279 --> 00:24:09.799 Doesn't Congress need to vote on this? And I want 350 00:24:09.839 --> 00:24:11.200 to think about it, and I want to talk about 351 00:24:11.200 --> 00:24:14.000 it as far as historical precedents and sort of the 352 00:24:14.039 --> 00:24:22.200 ideas behind it. Now, the Constitution vests in Congress the 353 00:24:22.279 --> 00:24:32.000 power to declare war. It is firmly with Congress. Okay, 354 00:24:32.480 --> 00:24:37.680 Congress declares war now. The president is, however, the commander 355 00:24:37.720 --> 00:24:42.000 in chief of the military. And it's long been sort 356 00:24:42.039 --> 00:24:48.359 of established thought that the president does not need to 357 00:24:48.480 --> 00:24:55.160 wait for Congress in order to engage in defensive activity. Right, 358 00:24:57.319 --> 00:25:03.079 the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor. The Japanese are attacking Pearl Harbor. 359 00:25:04.519 --> 00:25:08.319 Soldiers in Hawaii who see the planes coming in and 360 00:25:08.400 --> 00:25:12.599 dropping bombs. A soldier runs to an anti air gun, 361 00:25:12.920 --> 00:25:14.720 and the officer says, no, no, no, no, no, you 362 00:25:14.799 --> 00:25:22.200 can't shoot. Congress hasn't declared war. No. Okay, the Japanese 363 00:25:22.880 --> 00:25:26.079 drop bombs. The President immediately gets on the horn and says, 364 00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:28.720 all right, we got to get aircraft carriers over there immediately, 365 00:25:28.759 --> 00:25:31.039 We got to launch attacks on We know that they're 366 00:25:31.119 --> 00:25:33.720 Japanese here here. Immediately launch attacks so we can repel 367 00:25:33.759 --> 00:25:36.839 their advance so that they don't get to the West coast. Okay, 368 00:25:36.960 --> 00:25:40.599 the President doesn't need to wait for Congress to declare 369 00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:44.319 war first before he does that for defensive stuff. Everyone 370 00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:47.640 is pretty much agreed that, yes, if the president is 371 00:25:47.680 --> 00:25:51.680 repelling an imminent threat, he doesn't need to wait for 372 00:25:51.759 --> 00:26:02.920 congressional authorization before he acts. However, the decision to declare 373 00:26:03.480 --> 00:26:12.440 war seems to be a kind of policy decision. If 374 00:26:12.480 --> 00:26:15.240 it's a decision about declaring war to stop someone who 375 00:26:15.319 --> 00:26:19.440 is posing an imminent threat that is not yet there. 376 00:26:22.920 --> 00:26:27.279 Basically the thought is that, well, Congress has to decide it, 377 00:26:27.359 --> 00:26:32.759 and there are a lot of sort of classical classical history, 378 00:26:32.920 --> 00:26:37.519 Greek and Roman sort of precedents for that that the 379 00:26:37.559 --> 00:26:44.480 founding fathers, I think were very deliberately imitating. So in 380 00:26:44.519 --> 00:26:47.839 the ancient world, in the Mediterranean world of kind of 381 00:26:47.880 --> 00:26:54.519 Greece and Rome, those cultures, specifically, many of the city states, 382 00:26:55.160 --> 00:26:59.160 the poll as, the singular polis plural polays, many of 383 00:26:59.160 --> 00:27:04.279 the individual pollais of the Greek and Roman worlds. So 384 00:27:04.279 --> 00:27:06.720 you got the Roman Republic over here in Italy, and 385 00:27:06.759 --> 00:27:13.799 then you had all these individual Greek city states, you know, Corinth, Thebes, Sparta, Athens, 386 00:27:14.240 --> 00:27:24.880 et cetera. They wound up developing more democratic political systems, 387 00:27:25.400 --> 00:27:30.000 political systems in which the citizenry, however defined, and the 388 00:27:30.039 --> 00:27:36.720 citizenry being a citizen was a kivas in the Key 389 00:27:36.759 --> 00:27:40.400 West in the Roman system, or a polytase in the 390 00:27:40.400 --> 00:27:45.920 Greek sense. It was a very restricted, small group of people. 391 00:27:46.000 --> 00:27:48.759 Not everyone was a citizen. It was usually limited to 392 00:27:48.920 --> 00:27:58.799 adult men, non slaves, and they would extend citizenship only 393 00:27:59.079 --> 00:28:03.119 very reluctantly. I think in some city states, I think 394 00:28:03.119 --> 00:28:06.039 it was Athens. You'd only be a citizen if you 395 00:28:06.039 --> 00:28:08.480 could prove that you had a grandfather who was a 396 00:28:08.480 --> 00:28:12.440 citizen or something, which is kind of seems how do 397 00:28:12.480 --> 00:28:18.000 you eventually become a citizen. They were very stingy about 398 00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:24.079 granting citizenship, and so foreigners living and working in the 399 00:28:24.119 --> 00:28:29.000 city would be in a different status, and very often 400 00:28:29.039 --> 00:28:32.039 those people were more concerned with trade. The idea was 401 00:28:32.160 --> 00:28:39.640