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Speaker 8: Okay, all right, mister Chris Fish, welcome to the Jay
Speaker 8: Burton Show. How are you doing.
Speaker 9: I'm very well and I'm glad to be with you.
Speaker 8: So I know your son. We have some friends in common,
Speaker 8: but I had not been exposed to your work until
Speaker 8: you wrote an article in the most recent edition of Chronicles.
Speaker 8: Quite good. I'll have it linked on the description for
Speaker 8: those interested. But if you could before we get into
Speaker 8: your article, could you describe who you are and what
Speaker 8: you do.
Speaker 9: Well. I am seventy one. I was born in Belgrade
Speaker 9: in Tito's heyday. My primary and secondary education was in Yugoslavia.
Speaker 9: It was good quality education because, believe it turned up,
Speaker 9: even though Tito's brand of communism was not typical real
Speaker 9: socialism of the Soviet type, it was still pretty oppressive.
Speaker 9: But education was good unless of course it dealt with
Speaker 9: things like sociology and political economy, and in that case
Speaker 9: you had to parrot the platitudes and ideological cliche days.
Speaker 9: But I had always been interested in world affairs, and
Speaker 9: so after the grammar school and the fifteen months army service,
Speaker 9: I went to England to study international relations at the
Speaker 9: University of Sussex. At that time, fees for foreign students
Speaker 9: were still quite low, and my family could afford it.
Speaker 9: But also I wanted to live in the West because
Speaker 9: at that time I was actually younger, naive and pro Western,
Speaker 9: because frankly, Tito's culture personality always got onto my nerves,
Speaker 9: and I believed that all that the West came to represent,
Speaker 9: as conveyed in the movies, popular literature, and of course
Speaker 9: goods such as genes and electronics, had a certain magnetism
Speaker 9: that was quite strong at the time. I must say.
Speaker 9: Also in nineteen seventy two, I was seventeen eighteen at
Speaker 9: the time, when I spent some months first in France
Speaker 9: then in England, I really decided that I didn't want
Speaker 9: to live in what used to be Yugoslavia, that this
Speaker 9: was much more dynamic, much more interesting part of the world.
Speaker 9: And much more promising, both professionally and material So I
Speaker 9: started my Western career as a radio journalist with the
Speaker 9: BBC World Service, both in what used to be the
Speaker 9: Yugoslav Service at the time and later in the news
Speaker 9: room and talks and features department, moving to the Voice
Speaker 9: of America, where he stayed only very briefly in eighty
Speaker 9: six eighty seven. It was a very bureaucratic and stifling organization,
Speaker 9: and then I became a freelancer reporting from Belgrade for
Speaker 9: US News and World Report eighty nine to ninety one.
Speaker 9: It was the time of Yugoslavia's gradual disintegration and slide
Speaker 9: into civil war, and in ninety one ninety two I
Speaker 9: spent a year as a postdoctoral researcher at the Hoover
Speaker 9: Institution at Stanford on a State Department grant. And that
Speaker 9: was my swan song, as shall we say, kosher member
Speaker 9: of the establishment, because with the Western campaign of quessaimoralistic
Speaker 9: malignment of the Serbs during the civil war in Yugoslavia
Speaker 9: boilth in Bosnia and in Kosto. Later I became not
Speaker 9: only dissillusioned but utterly discussed it with the media machine
Speaker 9: and accepted the post of informal and unofficial representative of
Speaker 9: the Bosnian Serb Republic based in London, and also I
Speaker 9: started writing very critical pieces, especially on the Hague Tribunal
Speaker 9: more athletes would be called Inquisition, the International Tribunal for
Speaker 9: the former Yugoslavia, and the farce known as the Strebnitzer genocide,
Speaker 9: where if you have genocide at the level of a
Speaker 9: municipality of twenty thousand people, then of course we are
Speaker 9: entering the grays zone of postmodern semantic games, which can
Speaker 9: lead us anywhere. And in the late nineties I spent
Speaker 9: some years, one year at the University of Saint Thomas
Speaker 9: in Houston, Texas and two and a half the now
Speaker 9: defunct rose Hill College in aken, South Carolina, which was
Speaker 9: the first attempt and the only one so far as
Speaker 9: to my knowledge, to start a great books college based
Speaker 9: on Orthodox faith. It was supposed to be broadly speaking,
Speaker 9: the Orthodox censor to Saint Thomas, Aquinas, but it ran
Speaker 9: out of steam due to lack of funds and mismanagement.
Speaker 9: It's a sad story. And since ninety nine I've been
Speaker 9: affairs editor of the Chronicles. It has been what twenty
Speaker 9: seven years now, with two breaks In two thousand and
Speaker 9: nine I took a year's break and last year two
Speaker 9: thousand and five ten months break. But basically I provide
Speaker 9: one editorial for the print edition, two page editorial of
Speaker 9: about eighteen hundred words every month and two to three
Speaker 9: online articles on the subjects of the day. Parallel bit
Speaker 9: that I teach international relations at the University of Banyaluca,
Speaker 9: which is the capital of the Republic of Srpska, the
Speaker 9: Serbian Republic in Bosnia Herzegovina, and currently I'm writing a
Speaker 9: book called Space and Power. It's the working title which
Speaker 9: looks at the entire human history through the prism of geopolitics,
Speaker 9: primarily of the interaction between the spatial dimension of international
Speaker 9: relations and the propensity of states in all times, culture,
Speaker 9: civilizations and geographic spaces to use a force on the
Speaker 9: threat or the threat of force as the primary means
Speaker 9: of achieving their objectives. So that's a summary of it.
Speaker 9: I spend most of my time now in the small
Speaker 9: town of Petrovats on the Montenegrin coast of the Adriatic Sea,
Speaker 9: but I also divide my time between Belgrade Banie Luca,
Speaker 9: where I still teach postgraduates and Zurich, were my wife.
Speaker 9: I still has business engagements. I travel a lot through Europe.
Speaker 9: I visit the US on average once a year, but
Speaker 9: in Europe I love traveling through Italy and France and
Speaker 9: Spain primarily, but also very often to the Pannonia lands
Speaker 9: of Hungary, Slovakia and southern Germany. Northern Germany doesn't interest me.
Speaker 9: And also of course Holland, where I have two daughters,
Speaker 9: one son in law and two granddaughters. And you mentioned
Speaker 9: my son, he and his wife and their daughter in
Speaker 9: suburban Washington, d c. So I occasionally visit there too.
Speaker 9: I'm a US citizen, but I'm dual citizen. I also
Speaker 9: have Serbian passport and permanent residents in the United Kingdom.
Speaker 9: So that's just about as far as I can go
Speaker 9: with a disclosure of private interests.
Speaker 8: Well fair enough. So your piece for Chronicles most recently
Speaker 8: is titled the Tump the Trump Doctrine, and is sort
Speaker 8: of comparing the foreign policy of the Trump administration to
Speaker 8: the Monroe Doctrine. So two things. One, the Monroe doctrine
Speaker 8: is a term that gets thrown around quite often. It
Speaker 8: might be useful for my audience to define that what
Speaker 8: was that historical doctrine, how does it apply to what
Speaker 8: the Trump administration is doing? And then also, I imagine
Speaker 8: a great deal has happened since you wrote that piece, Right,
Speaker 8: there's a little bit of air gap between when you
Speaker 8: send off a piece and when it appears in print.
Speaker 8: So what do you make? And I realize I'm throwing
Speaker 8: out a lot of questions at you all at once,
Speaker 8: but it is an interview show. What do you make
Speaker 8: of both the actions in Venezuela and then also sort
Speaker 8: of saber rattling with Iran.
Speaker 9: The main thing that makes the difference between Trump and
Speaker 9: his predecessors is a cooling of relations with the European
Speaker 9: Union and its key member countries. And I think it's
Speaker 9: a very very good thing because if you look at
Speaker 9: the National Security Strategy, which was revealed on December seventh
Speaker 9: of last year, even though about one half of that
Speaker 9: thirty two page document is devoted to the Western hemisphere,
Speaker 9: to my mind, the most important part is towards the end,
Speaker 9: where it warns of the civilizational threat to Europe's survival
Speaker 9: if it's ruling elites continue what it terms and are
Speaker 9: quoting from memory, cell defeating or suicidal immigration policies, excessive
Speaker 9: censorship and deficit of democratic uh, and also attempts to
Speaker 9: stifle sovereignist and patriotic anti immigration political parties such as
Speaker 9: the Alternative for Germany.
Speaker 7: It didn't Actually.
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Speaker 9: Mentioned any of them, but it's obvious what they had
Speaker 9: in mind. Well, Monroe Doctrine came into being in eighteen
Speaker 9: twenty three, at the time when the liberation of Spain's
Speaker 9: colonies in Central and South America was fruitfully ended by Bolivar,
Speaker 9: and when the United States was primarily interested in keeping
Speaker 9: other European powers away from the Western Hemisphere from the Americas.
Speaker 9: Primarily it was aimed at Great Britain, which was of
Speaker 9: course the dominant global naval power at the time and
Speaker 9: all the way until the Second World War. But at
Speaker 9: that time the young American Republic was still relatively weak,
Speaker 9: both militarily and economically, and it had limited means of
Speaker 9: enforcing this until the period of manifest destiny at the
Speaker 9: end of the nineteenth century, and of course the Spanish
Speaker 9: American War of eighteen ninety eight, when the last two
Speaker 9: Spanish possessions of Cuba and Puerto Rico came under US control.
Speaker 9: The modern day reincarnation primarily has the objective of keeping
Speaker 9: other powers away not only in political and military terms,
Speaker 9: which was the primary focus of the original, but also economic,
Speaker 9: and this is primarily directed against China rather than Russia,
Speaker 9: because even though Russia signed an agreement on strategic cooperation
Speaker 9: with Venezuela in May of last year, and it was
Speaker 9: ratified by the Russian Duma in October of last year.
Speaker 9: It didn't move one little finger to and its protest
Speaker 9: of Nadura's captures, shall we say restrained. It was utterly meaningless,
Speaker 9: especially considering the fact that this was theoretically their strategic
Speaker 9: partner in the Americas. And I think this is because
Speaker 9: since Putin has always insisted on the need to recognize
Speaker 9: the legitimacy of spheres of interest, and obviously Russia sees
Speaker 9: Ukraine as a sphere of interest as well as other
Speaker 9: parts of it's near abroad in the former Soviet Union,
Speaker 9: that in return, put In would be more than happy
Speaker 9: to recognize Trump's own sphere of interest, which is of
Speaker 9: course the Western Hemisphere. But Russian investment in Venezuela was
Speaker 9: pretty minor anyway, even though they had this agreement and
Speaker 9: and military extu even though they had this strategic agreement
Speaker 9: and military cooperation which antedates this agreement, they had never
Speaker 9: tried to build in Venezuela, for instance, an equivalent of
Speaker 9: the naval base at Tartus in Syria, which was their
Speaker 9: foothold in the Mediterranean. On the other hand, the Chinese
Speaker 9: are present and have been present for about fifteen years
Speaker 9: now with major infrastructure projects all over Central and South
Speaker 9: America from the Panama Canal to especially in Brazil, but
Speaker 9: also in Venezuela. And I think that Trump's policy will
Speaker 9: make some of these states look again at their cooperation
Speaker 9: with China in the economic sphere, and that they will
Speaker 9: probably think twice before signing fresh agreements, because it is
Speaker 9: obvious that with the return to what can be described
Speaker 9: as imperialist policy, imperialists in the nineteenth century sense, that
Speaker 9: Trump is determined to speeze the Chinese out from the hemisphere.
Speaker 9: So what is refreshing is that his rhetoric is not
Speaker 9: based on making Venezuela safe for democracy and LGBTQ community,
Speaker 9: or for the recovery of human rights and establishment of
Speaker 9: democratic credentials. He is talking about oil. He is talking
Speaker 9: about US interests. He is talking about what one might
Speaker 9: say HOBBSI and politics based on frankly, power relations and
Speaker 9: reison detta, which is the French term which is loosely
Speaker 9: translated as state reason, but fundamentally means the perception of
Speaker 9: the decision maker of what is the national interest of
Speaker 9: the given country.
Speaker 8: Can you contrast this sort of new pragmatic or new
Speaker 8: Hobbesian style of international relations, with the way that the
Speaker 8: United States Empire interacted, for instance, with the Serbs. You
Speaker 8: mentioned that earlier in the late nineties as part of
Speaker 8: the reason that you left sort of kosher discourse, if
Speaker 8: you will, so, if you could, you describe one state
Speaker 8: versus the other and why that transformation is significant.
Speaker 9: I think it's highly significant because in the context of
Speaker 9: policy which claims to be based on US exceptionalism, and
Speaker 9: medleyne Olbright made a famous remark in the nineties when
Speaker 9: she became Secretary of State and the Clinton we are America,
Speaker 9: we stand taller, we see further, We are the indispensable mate.
Speaker 9: Almost equally famous is the that the death of half
Speaker 9: a million Iraqis was the price well worth pay. But
Speaker 9: it goes one with the other. Whenever you postulate a
Speaker 9: moral principle as your guiding light, any form of compromise
Speaker 9: becomes very hard. It goes hand in hand with the
Speaker 9: irrational belief in the right and wrong side of history,
Speaker 9: and the rhetoric of the right side of history has
Speaker 9: been a regular feature of the Obama years, unfortunately also of.
Speaker 7: George W.
Speaker 9: Bush Is. But after all that's the period when we
Speaker 9: had the jelling of the neo conservative neoliberal duopoly, so
Speaker 9: that essentially there was very little difference in the assumptions
Speaker 9: and in the character of foreign interventions between the Neo
Speaker 9: Conservative dominated administrations of trade George W. Bush between two
Speaker 9: thousand and one and two thousand and nine and Obama
Speaker 9: for the ensuing eight years. And in his first term,
Speaker 9: Trump was hardly able to function because of catastrophic appointments
Speaker 9: of traders inside the gates which hindered him. And also
Speaker 9: at that time I think he was still lacking the
Speaker 9: know how the Sabola fair, the ability to translate some
Speaker 9: of still rudimentary ideas into concrete policies.
Speaker 7: And then of course we had.
Speaker 9: Four years of Team Biden, which really brought this rules
Speaker 9: based international order quote unquote, which means what I say
Speaker 9: is the order of the day, to almost rxism. It
Speaker 9: was most visibly difficult, most visible in the way that
Speaker 9: they cajoled Russia into attacking Ukraine, by turning Ukraine, by
Speaker 9: weaponizing Ukraine into the factor anti Russia. When you claim
Speaker 9: that your actions are not guided by self interest but
Speaker 9: by some higher principle, that means that your enemy needs
Speaker 9: to be demonized, because if it is communicated in terms
Speaker 9: of right and wrong and good and evil, then every
Speaker 9: enemy is reduced to Hitler Reduxia at Hitlererum applied at
Speaker 9: different times to Slavodamlosovitch in Serbia, to Saddam Hussein in Iraq,
Speaker 9: and of course the blademic put In in the Kremlin
Speaker 9: and the It is the international relations equivalent of the
Speaker 9: domestic use of the term fascist, where everyone left disagrees
Speaker 9: with becomes a fascist and the term ultimately becomes meaningless.
Speaker 9: Of course, we can discuss at length if there is
Speaker 9: irreducible core or what it means to be fascist, but
Speaker 9: most certainly neither the national socialists nor the European conservatives,
Speaker 9: who want to stop uncontrollable immigration and who want to
Speaker 9: revive pride in their communities and their culture and legacy
Speaker 9: are not fascists. So in the nineties there was a
Speaker 9: great deal of willingness on behalf of the Western powers,
Speaker 9: led by the United States and the Clinton at that time,
Speaker 9: to prove to the Islamic world that they are Muslim friendly,
Speaker 9: which they thought would somehow compensate for the many decades
Speaker 9: of uncritical and unreserved support of Israel, most notably after
Speaker 9: the Sixt Year War in nineteen sixty seven, and so
Speaker 9: the Bosnian Muslims were construed to be the pro Western
Speaker 9: multicultural tolerance blah blah blah Muslims, the ones we can
Speaker 9: work with, the ones we can treat as if necessary,
Speaker 9: an example for the reform of the Muslim world as
Speaker 9: a whole in the direction of this collective West as
Speaker 9: it existed back in the nineties, and Sir were the
Speaker 9: victims of it. What is worse, they openly talked about
Speaker 9: preventing the establishment of an Islamic state in the heart
Speaker 9: of the Bulkans, thinking that it would appeal to the
Speaker 9: Western is Exactly at the time when both the European
Speaker 9: Union in its postmas Strift period and the United States
Speaker 9: and the Clinton were moving rapidly in the post national
Speaker 9: and the globalist direction, and especially in Europe, there was
Speaker 9: a determined push.
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Speaker 9: With a series of agreements, the Shangan Agreement, Amsterdam Threat,
Speaker 9: Lisbon threat away from national sovereignty and in the direction
Speaker 9: of this construct where the European Union is supposed to
Speaker 9: be based on values and principles. Just as the exceptionalists
Speaker 9: in the US claimed that somehow the United States was
Speaker 9: not really based on the legacy of European primarily West
Speaker 9: and Northwest European early settlers and British institutions, that it
Speaker 9: was somehow the shining city on the hill. So if
Speaker 9: Trump is going to overturn this, and at least with
Speaker 9: the NSS we have a promise that this might be
Speaker 9: the case, then we may be witnessing the beginning of
Speaker 9: a revolutionary change. And I insist that there is not
Speaker 9: a sign of equality between Trump and his globalist predecessors,
Speaker 9: even though I dislike foreign interventions, even though I think
Speaker 9: that US never interests is not visibly served by the
Speaker 9: removal of Madura. There is a new intellectual and legal
Speaker 9: and propagandistic justification for this. It is returned to the
Speaker 9: old relations of amend nations based on power, on space
Speaker 9: and resources, and that in itself is well come. If
Speaker 9: this also means that the European Union and the doors
Speaker 9: such as Chancellor Mertz and President Macron, and outside the
Speaker 9: EU the Labor Prime Minister in London will be left
Speaker 9: to their own devices, and the US will no longer
Speaker 9: be part of this experiment in self annihilation that done
Speaker 9: so much better. I am not a trumpion. I'm simply
Speaker 9: trying to evaluate his impact on America's position in the
Speaker 9: world and America's policies on the basis of the results
Speaker 9: of his actions. As the Bible says, you'll know them
Speaker 9: by the fruits and in the fullness of time. If
Speaker 9: this means that power politics is back, at least it
Speaker 9: will be easier for other powers, primarily China and Russia,
Speaker 9: to negotiate with the US on the basis of clearly
Speaker 9: defined interests and not some nebulous values. Because if your
Speaker 9: objective is to make the Red Square safe for Pride parades,
Speaker 9: then there is nothing to negotiate. If you start with
Speaker 9: the assumption that Russia needs to fundamentally change its character,
Speaker 9: or that it would be preferable for Russia to be
Speaker 9: democratic if it were to disintegrate it into twelve or
Speaker 9: twenty entities, as suggested by the lads big new Ruzhinski,
Speaker 9: then of course, again there is nothing to negotiate if
Speaker 9: you start lambasting the Chinese, as Anthony Blincoln did a
Speaker 9: Tnchorage four years ago over the treatment of Wigurs and
Speaker 9: democracy movement in Hong Kong. Then again, there is nothing
Speaker 9: to negotiate with Trump in the White House. I think
Speaker 9: that the return to the kind of predictability of international
Speaker 9: relations in the context of a global balance of power
Speaker 9: system will be both safer for the world and surprisingly
Speaker 9: more morally sustainable, because moral absolutism of the globalist neo
Speaker 9: con neolib clique is in fact deeply more and hypocritical,
Speaker 9: as well as dangerous and laden with the possibility for
Speaker 9: uncontrollable escalations.
Speaker 8: Several things there. What is your retort Because many people
Speaker 8: who I consider sort of compatriots, right, people pulling in
Speaker 8: roughly the same direction, are out and out anti war.
Speaker 8: They view war as illegitimate they do they view any
Speaker 8: sort of aggressive foreign policies on its face immoral and wrong.
Speaker 8: And many of them are reacting to this pivot to
Speaker 8: sort of focusing on the hemisphere, which is hysterics. They're
Speaker 8: absolutely beside themselves because it is not full isolationism. And
Speaker 8: these are people I consider friends, Scott Horton, a few others.
Speaker 8: So what is your response to that position? The true isolationists,
Speaker 8: the true Because you could say anti war, I guess base, Well.
Speaker 9: Some wars have to be fought, but we really need
Speaker 9: to start with some clarity. In theoretical terms, conflict is
Speaker 9: imminent to human nature, and the use of force or
Speaker 9: threat of the use of force is present in all
Speaker 9: eras and all geographic spaces, all cultures and all civilizations.
Speaker 9: From the Sumerians and Heatites, and the Mesopotamian hydraulic states,
Speaker 9: the Assyrians, the Babylonians, the Egyptians onwards, we have certain
Speaker 9: regularities which absolutely determined relations between states. The first true
Speaker 9: historian as well as theoretician of geopolitics, even though geopolitics
Speaker 9: is term, only came into being in nineteen hundred. The
Speaker 9: historian of the Polar Permission War, to Kiddidis gave us
Speaker 9: the famous definition of the conflict between Athens and Sparta.
Speaker 9: The rise of Sparta and the fear that this created
Speaker 9: sorry the rise of Athens as maritime trading empire, and
Speaker 9: the fear of Sparta that its position would be jeopardized,
Speaker 9: and the desire to preserve the set of scroll made
Speaker 9: the war inevitable. Now, he did not mention the fact
Speaker 9: that Athens was a democracy and Sparta was an aristocracy,
Speaker 9: because he DMed it irrelevant and the deed it is
Speaker 9: the notion that domestic order somehow determines or justifies the
Speaker 9: posture of a country in world relations is simply not true.
Speaker 9: It's not supported by evidence. But what we have in
Speaker 9: the case of the Roman Republic, for instance, is the
Speaker 9: Punic War against the Cartoginians, who are the descendants of
Speaker 9: Phoenicians who colonize North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula. It
Speaker 9: was the struggle of central Mediterranean, the space between Tunisia,
Speaker 9: Sicily and Calabria. It was really a matter of who
Speaker 9: gets home. There was nothing ideological, nothing ontological about it.
Speaker 9: It was geopolitics, plain and simple. Only one of those
Speaker 9: two stay would emerge victorious. It was not a conflict
Speaker 9: amenable to compromise. It was an existential conflict, and the
Speaker 9: victorious power simply destroyed the losers to the point of
Speaker 9: raising their capital and plowing it with salt, so that
Speaker 9: even memory of it is.
Speaker 7: Erased.
Speaker 9: Similar situations have risen ever since, and I would only
Speaker 9: mention that in the modern era, after the Piece of
Speaker 9: Asphalia of sixteen forty eight, which ended the Thirty Year War,
Speaker 9: we have an interesting period in Europe. It's the period
Speaker 9: of the classical balance of power. System, and it was
Speaker 9: the system that provided Europe with a long period of
Speaker 9: relative stability, which was only interrupted in a major way
Speaker 9: by the French Revolutionary Wars, and by Napoleon's seventeen years
Speaker 9: of meteodic rise and then sudden fall after his Russian adventure,
Speaker 9: and then again in eighteen fifteen at the Congress of Vienna,
Speaker 9: the balance of power system was renewed and provided Europe
Speaker 9: with another ninety nine years of relative peace, when it
Speaker 9: flourished into arguably the most successful, both scientifically, technologically and
Speaker 9: artistically richest, and the most brilliant civilization known to mankind.
Speaker 9: So I do believe that both the bipolar world of
Speaker 9: the Cold War and the monopolar moment of the post
Speaker 9: Cold War American global dominance were temporary aberrations, and that
Speaker 9: in the long term, some form of balance of power system,
Speaker 9: and we do have emerging multipolarity that is obvious, is
Speaker 9: both as I said, politically more manageable and philosophically more
Speaker 9: logical and morally more sustainable. Of course, this is anathema
Speaker 9: to globalists and exceptionalists of all colors, but their refusal
Speaker 9: to acknowledge the emerging multipolarity was in fact probably the
Speaker 9: most destabilizing and the most dangerous element in the foreign
Speaker 9: policy mix of the old bipartisan Washington establishment, because the
Speaker 9: refusal to accept reality and the insistence to persevere in
Speaker 9: trying to continue with full spectrum dominance was in fact
Speaker 9: the most stabilizing and the most dangerous strategy that the
Speaker 9: United States would possibly devise.
Speaker 8: The fly in the ointment, and you've already mentioned this
Speaker 8: is our relationship to the State of Israel, both in
Speaker 8: the who is the first mover in that relationship? Obviously
Speaker 8: you have reports coming out about Operation Midnight Hammer, some
Speaker 8: sources claiming that mister Netahu made the decision and then
Speaker 8: informed us and we were forced to react. But how
Speaker 8: does a generalized pivot towards the hemisphere interact with our
Speaker 8: stated or actual obligations to this Middle Eastern democracy.
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Speaker 9: Well, First of all, there are now real obligations and
Speaker 9: the myths of our Anshynco aircraft carrier being the reliable
Speaker 9: and essential and the existentially important ally is just that
Speaker 9: a myth. Now. Who can blame the Israelis for wanting
Speaker 9: to keep Washington completely committed to their defense and the
Speaker 9: Apollosia for whatever policies they conduct in the region. But
Speaker 9: oddly enough, ironically, even this is the one area where
Speaker 9: both Israelis and Arabs agree that they both want the
Speaker 9: United States to remain committed to the Middle East, and
Speaker 9: I think that the best answer to that is that
Speaker 9: the region has no longer any tangible, vital interests to
Speaker 9: the United States, and I was encouraged that in the
Speaker 9: National Strategic Document issue last month this is actually stated
Speaker 9: point when that with the diversification of energy sources, the
Speaker 9: United States does not have the same degree of interest
Speaker 9: in the Middle East as before. Now, de mythologizing the
Speaker 9: relationshipship with Israel is both possible and necessary, and it
Speaker 9: is unfortunate that so far we still have this curious,
Speaker 9: passionate attachment in the White House, which is at odds
Speaker 9: with MAGA assumptions and also at todds with what one
Speaker 9: might term foreign national interest guided foreign policy. Demutologization, however,
Speaker 9: must not veer into the kind of leftist moral condemnation
Speaker 9: for its own sake, which is both irrational and hypocritical,
Speaker 9: because at the same time it is completely intervious to
Speaker 9: the condemnation of the Islamic world for its treatment of
Speaker 9: Christians and for its general dysfunctionality and its inability to
Speaker 9: create either sustainable and viable economies or productive and harmonious societies.
Speaker 9: So In answer to your question, I think that perfect
Speaker 9: detachment from the region with equidistant attitude to both parties,
Speaker 9: especially when they use mythological or religious arguments in support
Speaker 9: of their aims, is the way to go. For instance,
Speaker 9: it's a regular feature of the Israeli discourse to claim
Speaker 9: that there is the biblical basis for Judea and Samaria
Speaker 9: as they call them to belong to them. And at
Speaker 9: same time, on the Muslim side, and this is less
Speaker 9: known any part of the Umma, the collective community of
Speaker 9: the Muslim faithful, which used to be under the Muslim
Speaker 9: control and then falls to infidel must never be recognized
Speaker 9: as legitimately theirs. And that's why the late Yasser Arafat
Speaker 9: in the end refused to sign the Camp David deal
Speaker 9: offered by Clinton in December two thousand, which was the
Speaker 9: best off of the Palestinians had ever got since nineteen
Speaker 9: forty seven eight, because he couldn't bring himself to sign
Speaker 9: something that would have permanent character. In the Muslim world,
Speaker 9: everything is based upon analogy with the early period of
Speaker 9: Muslim expansion and in the lifetime of Muhammad and his
Speaker 9: first four successes as they called him the Four rightly
Speaker 9: guided halifs, and Muhammad signed or agreed to a temporary
Speaker 9: truce with Mecca, which he later violated. And this model
Speaker 9: of temporary truths has been present in the period of
Speaker 9: the Ottoman Empire's decline in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.
Speaker 9: But the Ottomans never gave up on the hope, however
Speaker 9: unrealistic at that time of returning to Some of that
Speaker 9: was sessions in the Balkans and around the Black Sea,
Speaker 9: so that in Arabic, for instance, Spain is still known
Speaker 9: as al Andalus, and in Turkish Serbia is still Serbistan
Speaker 9: and Montenegris Karadag. So biblical claims of the Israelis for
Speaker 9: are at Israel from the River Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea,
Speaker 9: and the Muslim claims to the return of the Uma
Speaker 9: and the world of faith dar al Islam from the
Speaker 9: world of war. These claims should be simply ignored by
Speaker 9: the United States, regarded as quaint, as anthropologically interesting, but
Speaker 9: totally irrelevant to the American interests. And of course, in
Speaker 9: that context the problem we have is with Christian Zionists.
Speaker 9: But I think it is a community declining in both
Speaker 9: size and influence. Mercifully because they are difficult people to
Speaker 9: deal with in rastural terms.
Speaker 8: Well to that point, and you mentioned de mythologizing, I
Speaker 8: realized this is somewhat outside of the scope of our conversation.
Speaker 8: I promise I'll bring it back around to international relations.
Speaker 8: But the rapid de mythologization of both the State of
Speaker 8: Israel and of to talk around it a certain prominent
Speaker 8: twentieth century event which is responsible for much of our
Speaker 8: attitudes towards Israel. That's been incredibly rapid. And look, as
Speaker 8: a young person in a heavily Protestant area, I see
Speaker 8: this transformation very interestingly. It is very much a generational divide.
Speaker 8: Obviously baby boomers get the worst rap there's maybe some
Speaker 8: to that as regards Zionism, but even once you get
Speaker 8: down really halfway through Generation X into millennials, it is
Speaker 8: at best a certain indifference, if not kind of harsher
Speaker 8: attitudes towards the State of Israel. Conversation for another day,
Speaker 8: but I want to return to the subject of Iran.
Speaker 8: We mentioned Operation Midnight Hammer, which was targeting their nuclear program,
Speaker 8: but also it seems as if there is and it's
Speaker 8: very hard to get data out for any number of reasons.
Speaker 8: But it seems as if there is a color revolution
Speaker 8: in the offing currently going on in Iran. What do
Speaker 8: you make of our relationship to the Islamic Republic? How
Speaker 8: does that, I guess, mesh with your your previous analysis.
Speaker 9: I would put Iran in the same context of the
Speaker 9: Israeli Arab conflict in our previous segment. Let us keep
Speaker 9: away from it because no much of what it does
Speaker 9: visa its Arab neighbors in the Golf or Israel, will
Speaker 9: affect the United States In the slightest degree. Iran is
Speaker 9: not a threat to either the United States or US
Speaker 9: interests in the region. Israel is perfectly capable of defending itself.
Speaker 9: It has nuclear weapons, It has the military that, as
Speaker 9: we've seen time and over again ever since the nineteen
Speaker 9: forty seven forty eight War, is superior to any coalition
Speaker 9: that its real or potential enemies can put together against it,
Speaker 9: let alone Iran by itself, which is of course viewed
Speaker 9: with grad deal of suspicion or worse by the Sunni
Speaker 9: Arab monarchies in the Golf. It is also ridden with
Speaker 9: domestic discontent and we an economic crisis which makes its
Speaker 9: infrastructure barely functional. So I think it would be completely
Speaker 9: absurd to regard Iran as either a threat or as
Speaker 9: a potential, let alone real target for the repeat of
Speaker 9: this lamentable episode from last summer, which I think shook
Speaker 9: Trump's base pretty badly, and if it were to happen again,
Speaker 9: I think the whole Marga edifice might start showing cracks
Speaker 9: equivalent to those that domestically were created with the mismanagement
Speaker 9: of the Epstein affair.
Speaker 8: Well, thank you so much, mister Trivivick. This was very interesting.
Speaker 8: If people are interested in you and your work, I
Speaker 8: know you've mentioned your routine appearances in Chronicles. You've also
Speaker 8: written a popular book. Where can people find that?
Speaker 9: Well, the sort of the profit which I still be
Speaker 9: leave is not because I've written.
Speaker 14: It, but probably the most readable summary of what Islam
Speaker 14: is really all about, including its doctrine and its historical record.
Speaker 9: Unfortunately, it can only be found secondhand on Amazon dot
Speaker 9: com because Regina Wanted Express, the publisher has gone out
Speaker 9: of business, but my current output can be found on
Speaker 9: Chronicles website Chronicles Magazine dot org. I also have Substa
Speaker 9: Trifkovic dot substec dot com and as for and by
Speaker 9: the way, my substanct articles often deal with little known
Speaker 9: aspects of Balkan history as well as world affairs. And finally,
Speaker 9: for those who speak Serbia or Creation or other post
Speaker 9: Yugoslav languages, Bosnia and Montenegrin, you name it. On YouTube,
Speaker 9: they can find my many appearances on local TV and
Speaker 9: podcasts in Southeast Europe. I'm afraid we've only touched on
Speaker 9: so many issues that are yet to be covered, so
Speaker 9: I hope in the fullness of time we will have
Speaker 9: an opportunity to talk again.
Speaker 8: Well, definitely, this was incredibly educational, and I enjoy having
Speaker 8: returning guests, especially those who have actual expertise on a topic, because,
Speaker 8: as you can probably tell by my inability to pronounce
Speaker 8: your last name or really any word that isn't in
Speaker 8: the King James Bible, I'm sorely uneducated on the topic,
Speaker 8: and so we'll have to have you on again again.
Speaker 8: It was great speaking to you and everyone at home.
Speaker 8: Keep your head up. I can't last forever.
Speaker 7: Good night, God bless.
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Speaker 2: Punk you