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Speaker 1: Sixty percent of stocks forty percent bonds. Well, you know

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everything else has changed, including what the industry can do

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in terms of limiting losses. So we're suggesting that real

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estate and stocks may do what it's done before, be

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off precipitously and take longer to recover. The areas that

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we do like are outside of traditional investments, outside of cash,

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outside of homes, outside of stocks. Okay, it might look

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like infrastructure, it might look like manufacturing companies.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to, Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival network where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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val Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, we've had

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two back to back years of twenty plus percent gains

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in the stock market. Are the good times going to

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roll in twenty twenty five or are we seeing now

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perhaps the beginning of the January effect in January? So

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it goes January, So goes the market. Well, our good

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friend John Grace is with us now. John, it's great

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to have you back on the show. And well, tell

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us here for investors' advantage, corp your company? What's our advantage? Here?

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Do we prepare for? In times of war, we prepare

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for peace. In times of peace, we prepare for war.

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But sometimes it's neither peace nor war.

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Speaker 1: What do you do we prepare for both? As an

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old boy scout working on my Eagle Scout badge which

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I managed to obtain, Yes, it's all about prepared. That's

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exactly what the advice is. And that works twenty four

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to seven. And I appreciate being on again, Carrie, and

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and I see so many people. We get complacent, we

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get accustomed to well this is Quai. It's been so

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it's just going to continue. I mean, And we've been

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here before in the nineties, as you may recall, and

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that was a very good run. And then it was

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I believe it was Chairman Greenspan at the time who

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talked in late nineteen ninety six about a phrase he

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coin called irrational exuberance. And of course he took a

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lot of black and people told him he was completely

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out of step because the Dow and the S and

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P at the last half of the nineties doubled in value.

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You know, one hundred went to two hundred thousand dollars,

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that's pretty good. The Nasdaq quadrupled, one hundred went to

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four hundred thousand dollars. But then I think it was

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about March twenty twenty two that suddenly what he had

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suggested suddenly came into favor, and now he was welcomed

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back to the dinner table. Right that's where we saw

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the Financial Crier or the dot com crisis happened, and

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NASDAK was off. Was it really over eighty percent? And

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in my industry, I've only been at it since nineteen

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seventy nine, Kerry. You know, we always say, well, it

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always comes back, and it did. Nas Dak did come back.

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It just took fifteen years, I believe, assuming you did

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not sell a share, you didn't need any money for

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fifteen years, and then it comes back. So the way

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I look at it is, you know, let's be ridiculous

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and suppose something like what happened in two thousand, two

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thousand and two, two thousand and eight, it happens again,

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only only this time, we've got more people than we've

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ever had before. Was eleven thousand people a day, turning

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sixty six this year, I believe, and a lot of

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people reaching the age where they must take required minimum

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distributions that only increase every year as a percentage, no

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matter what your account does for you or to you. Well,

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now it seemed to me that we'd want to really

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look at what can savvy investors do to limit their

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losses if you have to take the withdrawals and you

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must pay the taxes as you do from tradition retireing accounts,

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and those withdrawals rates go up a little bit every

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single year no matter what. Now's the time I would

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submit to look to see where the exit doors are.

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Where are the strategies for limiting the losses, as opposed

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to believing you have to live with the losses and

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you know we may not have enough time to have

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those losses offset by the gains, assuming the gains come.

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So it's all about limiting those losses. No different than

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what if you don't want the hell Mary passed at

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the last two minutes of the game to get back

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in the game, and then the game's over and you're Crimingmill.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, another popular quote out there is everyone has

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a plan until they get punched in the face.

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Speaker 1: Right, That's correct. And I love George Patten's I love

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quoting George Patten, you know, because what he said, if

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everybody's thinking you like, then somebody isn't thinking. I think

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that's true. That's what I think. I think he got

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something there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so so do you run for the hills? Is

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that what you do?

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Speaker 1: Well? See, as I say, you know, when I would

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take my family to the movies, oftentimes we go in

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and you know, throw our clothes or jackets in the

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seat and go back for popcorn. So that would give

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my sons just enough time to do what I asked

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them to do every time they go intough building, and

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that's look for the exit doors, the emergency doors. When

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we come back, I would stand. I would make sure

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they could not see the exit doors. So then they

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get to their seats and I would stand in their

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way and say, now, tell me where the exit doors

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are before we go back to our seats. And they

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would because they knew the drill, and that's what it

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took to be able to sit down and enjoy the

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movie and that's my point. This is the time for

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investors to determine how much loss can you live with?

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Is it possible you might be able to limit your

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losses within your parameters. For example, if let's say two

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thousand and eight, the market's off thirty seven percent and

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the more traditionally managed mutual funds, the equity funds are

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off over forty percent, is it possible that your account

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might have been off less than fifty percent? Okay, so

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you ont a million dollars, you don't make it simple.

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Instead of being off three hundred and seventy overall market

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over four hundred thousand in most of stock mutual funds,

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so many of them, if your account was off less

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than twenty percent, would that be a good thing? That

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would that be following the adage, if you find yourself

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in a ditch, stop digging. I think so, you know,

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if you're down two hundred thousand, that's that's not good news,

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but that's better than being down four hundred thousand. And

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that's my point. What can we learn from the past

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and see what we could do to limit our losses

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if indeed they happen to be baked into the cake.

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If the real estate market drops precipitously. If the stock

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market drops dramatically, the question becomes in advance, how are

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you keeping your assets from being burned up? Like we

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looked at the fires going on in southern California right now,

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where nobody imagined thousands of homes would be burned up,

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and your elster completely unprepared.

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Speaker 3: But you know, in every everything that happens in life,

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there are winners and losers. Even in California. The contractors

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who are going to be retained to rebuild these properties hopefully.

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You know, the governor has said he's suspending well building

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regulations and permits and everything, maybe not regulations but permitting,

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so the Queen be accelerated. Jason, deregulating California is like

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something I never thought i'd live to see, but quite

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being quite being like you know, it's it's something you

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have to think.

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Speaker 1: About well and look in advance for it. There's a

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great story of a gentleman in the Pacific Calisades who

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who forethought what might happen and he put sprinklers on

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this rou if he used several large hoses to draw

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water from his pool to a sprinkler around the house

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and then he had to exit stage left at the

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at the last minute, and he was convinced that he

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would come home as he's seeing all these homes that

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are just destroyed. His was still standing and he was

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able to help other people. And of course that's the point.

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The question becomes, how can you play the game where

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it might be heads You in tells you in, you

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want to be able to be able to tell your

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story as he can, as opposed to the folks crying

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their hearts out, and you know, our heart goes out

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to them who lost everything. It's completely unimaginable. But that's

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why it's so important to be prepared.

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Speaker 3: So off topic a little bit, but really on topic.

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Natural disasters unavoidable, but it's the reaction to them, and

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to the extent that you can prevent or mitigate them

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shows leadership of rest. Maybe California will learn something from

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what's happened here that their leadership is totally not up

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to the.

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Speaker 1: Task of well, and maybe we should learn we don't

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keep building on the edge of canyons. We don't keep

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getting closer and closer to the ocean. For the view.

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That's fine when everything's working well, not so fine when

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the fires come rushing down the canyons in reverse. To Row,

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it was a hurricane. Now I happened to come across

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the UCLA study. This was just about the time we

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were discovering we're drinking the same water, breathing the same air,

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flying the same airplanes, and here comes COVID. Apparently never

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saw that one coming, right. But what the UCLA study

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showed is one the state, when we developed the aqueducts,

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our leadership happened to choose the most wettest one hundred

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years to study. Was that by intentional? Was that a mistake?

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Maybe we should have studied the one hundred years that

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were the driest. Well, we made a decision based on

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the wedding is And what the study went on to

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reveal is if you look at the pattern long before

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most of us were on the planet, including our parents

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and maybe their grandparents. They history in California. They said,

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you want to learn from the long term history, Californians

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get ready for more floods, get ready for more fires.

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It's the way California is built. And then they had

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a picture of Governor Leland Stanford being road in Sacramento

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to his inauguration. Hard to believe, you know, that kind

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of thing could happen, but it has. And I would say, Carrie,

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I think part of the problem that we have is

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we don't learn from history, my friend, because too many

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of us are so busy repeating it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, well there's an old saying the only thing

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we learned from history is that we don't learn from history.

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Speaker 1: I wish that wasn't funny, because it's True's sometimes you

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got to laugh at the truth.

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Speaker 3: Hey, well, I told you I'm a quote collector, so hey,

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I love doing these interviews with you. If there's three

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sectors for the coming year that you think are going

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to outperform the market, or at least to keep up

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with it, Yeah, what are they going to be?

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Speaker 1: Great question? The model for the securities industry from day one,

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for the last idle or at least the forty four

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years I've been in the business sixty percent stocks, forty

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percent bonds. Well, you know, everything else has changed, including

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what the industry can do in terms of limiting losses.

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So we're suggesting that real estate and stocks may do

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what it's done before, be off precipitously and take longer

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to recover the areas that we do like are outside

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of traditional investments, outside of cash, outside of homes, outside

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of stocks. Okay, it might look like infrastructure, it might

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look like manufacturing companies. Okay, owning the warehouses. All this

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stuff has to be distributed. How about owning the land

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under those warehouses, that's probably going to be a constant.

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How about being in student housing. Good clients who own

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proper USC. He's an engineer, rocket scientist, she's a broker.

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They have real estate that they own as rentals near USSE.

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They tell me USC reports they have eight thousand rental

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units with forty thousand people on the waiting list. I

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bet that waiting list just went up. My point is,

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if we own those kinds of real estate investments, you've

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got a lot of demand for it, and you can

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manage the market with all of that demand. And I

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would suggest being outside of southern California, out of California altogether.

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The other area that I really am found carry that

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I think has a lot of promise and a couple

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of vehicles have been around for over seven years now,

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is owning data center infrastructure, all the real estate necessary

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for all the artificial intelligence that we're getting accustomed to

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embracing and using well, it requires three hundred thousand square

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foot buildings again outside of California, solid deal, solid returns

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net to the investor. A star the last sets. That's

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one of the things that I think will hold up

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well no matter what happens in the economy, what happens

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in Washington, what happens in Sacramyl.

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Speaker 3: All right, well, I don't know. The data center thing

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looks like could be a modern day gold rush. We know,

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we know what happens to gold rushes.

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Speaker 1: John to your point, Levi Strauss is still a name

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we know, right, and he got famous doing what he

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wasn't going after the gold. He didn't do picks and shovels.

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He did close and I think they've been around for

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what eighteen twenty five something like that. I think you

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made a nice parallel there. Look for the where the

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knee is not going away has nothing to do with

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demographics so much we're going to be using all this technology,

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we may as well own the real estate that has

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to be in place to provide all this technology.

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Speaker 3: How about electric utilities, looks like we're heading for shortages

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and key markets, and one in Virginia or probably the

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biggest data centers in the world that you never heard

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of in the Langley of Vicinity. You can't build a

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data center there without a two year reservation, right. And

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what does it mean for alternative energy sources? Are we

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going to see a boom in solar and wind? Certainly

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we're seeing a boom in battery storage.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, that's going to continue, no doubt about it.

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A lot of opportunities. Just as I say, I think

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we have to expand our thinking. If we look at

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Yale endowment, was it like forty point seven billion dollars?

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What's astonishing to me, Carrie, is there exposure to US

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docs is last time I looked, and I tend to

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look once a year, it was around three percent. I

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didn't say thirty. I didn't say forty. I didn't say sixty.

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I said three. And what I find is they have

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maybe six or seven different assets legs if you will

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under that portfolio stool for more stability. And if you

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spend some time on their site, they explained what they

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used to do back in the eighties, what they're not

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doing anymore, which is very different from the securities industry.

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They also represent. This is their report, not by that

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they didn't lose money in two thousand and eight, So

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I'm submitting that, you know, we can learn from the

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best in the brightest. We can't replicate what the endowments

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and the institutions do, but they have been in private

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credit and private companies in private equity long before retail investors.

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Those are some of the areas we want to follow

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the best in the brightest to see how we might

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put some more legs under our portfolio stool so that

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it's less wobbling a little bit.

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Speaker 3: I also remember reading an article that Harvard had gone

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all in on payday lenders too, so you know, through

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their homework. Yeah, but I guess it was good. Well,

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I guess it was good until it wasn't. Like so

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many other things, John, tell us how we connect with you,

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how we find you on the web, and what you

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can do.

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Speaker 1: For us investors advantage. You know, to your listeners, Carrie,

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I'd be delighted if they have some questions they'd like

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to talk about what we're discussing. Will give you allow

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fifteen minutes right to see if there's something we can

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do a way that you might be better prepared to

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see how you might limit the losses. Maybe there's something,

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maybe not, but that's without any cost or obligation. And

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then if that makes sense, we can help prepare up

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an actual plan to help people see what it takes

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to get from here to there and arrive on time

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safely to make work optional. But right now we really

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are on a mission to show investors as we were

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in two thousand and seven. By the way, sometimes it's

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better to be lucky than good to limit losses. That's

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what I think is so crucial. The industry simply says

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you have to live with your losses. The good news

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is that is not true. But too many of our

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my peers haven't really been advocates or been, you know,

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being about the business showing investors what might you do

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to limit your losses? Happy to spend fifteen minutes with

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your audist.

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Speaker 3: Y X spouses say the same thing. But we got

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a link in the show notes to this interview on

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Financial Survival Network. Just click it, take your right to

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John's site and if you've got a question for John myself,

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shoot me an email. While you're on the site. We

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just ask you to please sign up for free newsletter

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like sixty five thousand other FSN community members have done. John,

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appreciate you coming on the show. Best of you, Best

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of twenty twenty five for you and yours. We'll talk

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to you again real soon.

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Speaker 1: Look forward to surviving and thriving in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: All.

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Speaker 1: It is good to be with you.

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Speaker 2: Carry thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,

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your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go

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to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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than ever, CRUs

