Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start the show
by being transparent. Yesterday I went to and one. The
Mary Boyles over was a winner, the Calves were a winner,
the Pacers were not so two and one yesterday. Step
in the right direction. See if we can do that
again here today? You know, always good to be here
with you. How did everything go for you? How you
doing today?
Speaker 2: Yet? Nothing in the NBA yesterday, Ski when I left
the show, did not leave a best bet, gave like
four things I was leaning toward, didn't wind up playing
any of them, but had six college basketball plays and
went five and one. So the college basketball has absolutely
been tremendous this week, eleven and two, last three days,
nineteen and nine over the last seven. So that seems
to be where the money's at right now for me.
We'll see if we can get to something here in
the NBA tonight. Though it looks like there's a couple
that I'll probably end up playing here on this card.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about him. We have one one
tipping off shortly here, and I just I just missed
it up. But it is Grizzlies and Magic. Let me
see if I can get that back queued up. I
just somehow screwed it up. There we go. Grizzlies and Magic.
Looks like five and a half. Actually, it's all over
the place. Five five and a half. Otto looks like
two twenty seven and a half down from an opener
of two twenty nine and a half. No Zach Edy,
no Brandon Clark, no Ty Jerome, no Jaw, No Scottie
Pippen Jr. For the Magic. You do have Fronz back
in the lineup. I'm not mistaken. They're playing from somewhere
where he's close to where.
Speaker 2: He's from, right They are in Germany, yep.
Speaker 1: And sucks out Howard out so you know clearly he
was not going to miss his game. You know he's
back for reason. So it's pretty much a home game
for the Magic in this one and the Grizzlies. I
just don't really have a whole lot of reasons to
try to back them right now. So I would lean
towards the Magic. I would think that the Magic will
play a lower scoring game as well, like a more
defensive game. But yeah, I mean, I guess I lean
with the market, Marcus moving towards magic and under. I'll
say the same to anything for you here. Veno on
the early NBA tip off game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, about the tip off, I will say this, I
didn't send it as a client recommendation. I did make
a small play myself on New Orlandos side for those reasons.
Tristan da Silva also from this area. So you got
the two brothers and da Silva all three a few
quotes from them how great it was to be back.
And I think the Franz and Mo actually had a
few friends that they said they saw while they're over there.
So certainly something to play for one thing, you know,
And I said small play friends is on a minutes
limit here, first game back in quite some time, but
still having him in the lineup deepens the rotation I
looked earlier today, Ski just at the bench stuff. Memphis
averages the highest amount of points per game off the bench,
but yet their plus minus number is astronomically terrible. So
these guys come in and score and give up twice
as much as Yeah, yeah, give it right back up.
So that put an end to any theory that I
might have had that the bench could be a factor here.
So yeah, a little bit of Orlando here, just because
it was an afternoon game, and it looked like there
was a slight motivational edge towards the Magic.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff on that will keep going down
the list. It looks like the next one is Suns
and Pistons opened up six and a half. Looks like
seven and a half half and total open two twenty
and a half. Not really any movement. Booker looks like
he's been rolled out. We out greenout age. Davis is
questionable for the Pistons you have during Tobias Isaiah Stewart
all probable more out. These teams did play recently, I'm
pretty sure, and it was the Sons who came away
with the w So this time around, No, Booker, Piston's
pretty healthy. Pistons at home. I don't know this number.
This number in that situation, you know, Piston's also well rested.
I can't remember the last time they've played. Makes me
think that the Pistons get a little bit of revenge
in this one. Quick revenge at that or no, no, no,
not quick revenge. My my mistaken. You know, did these
teams played like recently?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was the it was last year though, I
got last meeting January eighteen, twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's bad. I'm thinking about the Sun playing somebody
else then that's my mistake. But this number seems like,
you know, it's telling me the Pistons are going to
run about the gym. What do you think here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'll just start by asking you because
I know you've said it before, and I forget where
you're lying in the sand is. But you got kind
of rule for how many days off you can have.
The Pistons have had five days off. That's extremely Is
that too many?
Speaker 1: Too many? Four plus too many?
Speaker 2: Five days off? Everybody back in the lineup, right, Kate
is back, missed the last couple of games. Tobias Harris
hasn't played since the thirtieth. I'm sure he'll be on
a little bit of a minute thing. Jalen Duran talked
about how horrible it was to sit and watch for
the last four games. Isaiah Stewart didn't play the last game.
Everybody back sixty percent of the starting lineup, plus you're
sixth man, so obviously they're the healthier here. And the
angle I would have used for Phoenix because I saw
a couple of quotes. Listen, Devin Booker's not going to
come out and say he's po about being seventeenth in
All Star voting, but they did ask him about it,
and he basically said, I got the quote. Here in
the NBA, we have some super big market teams. There
are guys from other countries that have a whole country
voting for them. I kind of understand the process. But
am I playing better than a lot of these guys?
For sure? But that's not the setup. But he's not
going to play. When Devin Booker gets back on the floor,
almost feel like it could be a Devin Booker go
for forty type games. Just these guys do like to
prove that they belong and he doesn't belong. He certainly
doesn't belong. Statistically, is the seventeenth leading voter for the
All Star Game. All that aside, Detroit's healthier. I did
wonder about the rest, just like you're saying that it
could be too long, So I don't know that I
could lay the points here against Phoenix, who's you know,
for the most part, playing really well. The first game
of the road trip. They lost the other night, right
they were in Miami, I think, and lost in a
high scoring game, looking to probably even up the road
trip at one in one. But I don't want to
bet against the Pistons, who've said time and time before
that they just look like a team every time they
take the floor they want to win games, and even
their head coach commented on how hard they played the
other night with basically a seven man lineup, So it
probably Pistons are nothing for me. But I wouldn't play
all that strong.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll keep going down the list. I think
next up is Thunder and Rockets opened up minus three
and a half. Here looks like five open two twenty five,
and that's down to as low as two twenty one,
and I see two twenty and a half, so it's
all over. I see it two twenty two, two twenty
one and a half. I see it two twenty and
a half. So make sure you line shop depending what
you like. Here for the Rockets, it looks like this
is the running of a back to back. Here they
do play the Timberwolves tomorrow, and it's a chance for
them to get some revenge. Right the last time to
play the Thunder, it was early in the season. They
I think it was the first game of the season,
matter of fact, and they took them down to the
wire and lost at the end. So a bit of
a chance to you know, get back at the Thunder here.
Thunder did beat the Spurs, did blow out the Spurs,
but haven't been playing the best basketball as of late.
Is that win enough for them to get back on track,
you know? Or do you think that the Rockets get
a little bit of revenge share at home?
Speaker 2: The Thunder part of that equation is the big question, right,
and did that game the other We know how bad
they wanted to beat the Spurs to at least prove
to themselves that these guys don't necessarily have our number.
We can't beat them, and they all out effort and
it took an all out effort to win that game.
I got a number here for you, Ski. That's kind
of crazy about Okay. See on the road, they're eight
and ten against the spread on the road this year,
but the average margin of victory is eleven point nine
points per game. It kind of shows you how big
of a favorite they are all the time, that they
could only be eight and ten but win these games
by twelve points a pop on average. Here they're only
laying five and a half. But I don't know that
I want to get in the way of Houston here
at home. Houston had a game the other night where
they won on this home standing. Jabbari Smith was a
guy so quoted as saying how he was to finally
make some shots. I didn't realize he's a thirty percent
shooter since the first of January, but came on in
the second half. Houston's probably just too good for me
to lay this amount of points to even though okaysee
has taken a ton of money here from three and
a half up to five. I just I think you
kind of sorted it out pretty well last week. Houston
with Shanggoon, without Shang Goon, here you have them. They
won the second game, he came back, they started to
win again, So I think Houston's probably plus plus five
at home. I don't know how you could pass that
up and you could get five and a half. I
probably wouldn't pass that up.
Speaker 1: Celtics and heat right around the opener for both for
the side at least at two for the total open
two thirty two and a half looks like two thirty
four and a half. Most shops. Let me get back
over here to the injury report for the Celtics were
not out for the heat. I'm a hawkas Deveon Mitchell
both out. I'm gonna be honest, this is one, uh
probably the rest of the games I have stronger opinions on,
but this one not so much. Rob, you know, so
I'll pass this one to you. Is there anything like
in Celtic seat.
Speaker 2: I would just say, if you don't like team totals,
cover your ears, right. I think that Boston side of
the Davion Mitchell's probably the reason why I leaned toward
Boston team total over one seventeen and a half. Here,
Miami gave up a ton of points the other day,
got back to that fast paced style of basketball. They won,
but gave up a bunch and Boston had a really,
really bad offensive effort against Indiana the other day. So
look for a little bit of a Boston bounce back.
I think with Mitchell not on the floor, to get
after Boston guards, whether it be Pritchard shooting threes, whether
it be yeahs are shooting threes, any of these guys,
I think that's helpful to Boston. They don't necessarily like
the fast paced, but they can shoot threes and they'll
go with it against Miami. So maybe a look towards
Boston team total over one seventeen and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, this next game, Bucks and Spurs, we gotta
talk about this. When it did open five and a half,
I'm sitting here up to seven and a half, as
high as eight total open two thirty down to as
low as two twenty four. Look at the injury report here,
Devin Vessel still out for the Spurs. For the Bucks,
Giannis is probable, Kuzma is questionable, turn Prince is out.
You know, man, that last game, I feel like it's
time for a divorce. I feel like it's time for
Joanna's gonna do something else. I mean, they're booing, Gianna's
booing back. I don't see a lot at the end
of the tunnel here in Milwaukee right now, for your honest.
So that's that's what I'm thinking. And I feel like
this like almost time to give up. The Spurs coming
off that blowout loss. I think they can respond here
at home. I'll be looking towards the Spurs on the spread,
or I'll be looking towards. I mean, I'm gonna be real, Shampenny.
He should have hit his rebound proper list game. But
you know they when it's the popular prop of the night, Robbi,
you know, they start to just take take stats away.
So I still think he can get there without Vasale
because he gets more minutes. But I haven't bet him yet.
Anything here from you Bucks and Spurs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the old do you old? We know everybody's betting
this prop. Make sure it doesn't it Yeah, conversation, you know,
if it weren't for the back and forth, the negative
interaction between Giannis and the fans, my general thought would
be a team that gets destroyed the way they did
the other night very next game would be eager to
bounce back. But you don't know what Milwaukee's like. I mean,
it's a rudderless ship. Got Glenn out there guiding them
into the abyss. So I don't know what to make
of this, which would put you right out. First of all,
san Antonio is the better team, and san Antonio is
the home team. And now if you take maybe an
unhappy Giannis and put him out there, then you would
lean san Antonio. If you are of the opinion that
Gianni is going to go on the road now away
from his home fans and put up forty two and
grab sixteen rebounds, which is entirely possible. Then you're probably
on bucks in a comeback mode. I don't like either
angle of that enough to bet the game. Tell you
the truth. Totals come way down two thirty to two,
twenty five to twenty four and a half in some spots.
If I had to ski, I'd be on san Antonio here.
I just Giannis is a unique player where watching him
boo the home fans doesn't mean he won't go on
the road tonight and do something special and hang within
seven and a half. So for me, I'll just leave
it alone. From that, I will say san Antonio probably
eager to get back on the floor too after losing OKC.
So a lot of conflicting stuff here on this game.
So I let this one go.
Speaker 1: Right. Next game, Jazz and MAVs. We did just see
the Jazz. It was last night. I'm not mistaken. I
didn't have a bet on that game, but yeah, they
covered plus four and a half versus the Bulls, right,
and then now they go into Dallas. Dallas also played
last night opened up plus long for Dallas. We now
see them minus two and a half even right now,
literally just flipping to some three and a half at
a couple of shots total up from two thirty, and
it's all over the place. I see it two thirty
six and a half. I see it two thirty eight.
So uh, definitely do some line shopping and maybe we
have some injuries and they got the moment or both.
You know, I move on the side in the total.
So I am gonna refresh here, also gonna pull up
on Twitter, and yes we have Cooper yep, all the
injuries popping up actually on my phone here marking it out.
Cooper flag doubtful, Max Christie doubtful. PJ. Washington questionable. That's
what it's looking like here. Yeah, Gaffer deultfo and then
Hartless out Okay, Love questionable. So a lot could be
missing here. You are starting to miss a lot of
size for this match team. You do have Brandon Williams
back in the lineup. You do have Nim Hart available.
I mean, you have some point guard play and they're
gonna be smaller. Utah does not mind running. I mean,
even though they played last night, I think they can
run again. I don't know if you know, I would
probably think over in this one anything from you here
in Utah Dallas.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's where you end up in this handicaps. Guest
started with Dallas because for Dallas, it's third game in
four nights, but they've all been home for Utah's third
game in four nights, but they've all been on the road,
traveling all over the place, and no marketing last night,
no marketing in here. But last night without Larry Markinen,
they still scored one hundred and twenty six points. Bryce
sense Ball went crazy had forty plus. So Dallas, you said,
lack of Dallas has no size. They have nobody left.
It's Dwight Powell back to playing center, with really no
second team center whatsoever. So it's all guards and swings
for Dallas, And as you mentioned, it's probably gonna just
keep running. It seems like it's a different guy every night.
I think we can count on George to do his
part for sure, but senseiball came from nowhere last night
to add in. I'd have to play it over or
no way at all. Like I said, I started with
Dallas thinking that the scheduling spot was better for them,
but without any centers, I mean, Utah's just got a
clear path through it. Dwight Powell is not going to
stop any He didn't stop anybody when he was the
normal center. Never mind now that he's like the fourth
center and just playing it out of necessity. So Dallas
too small for me. I would probably play over all.
Speaker 1: Right, we're in agreement on that. Next game, we have
Nicks and Warriors. This one opened up minus four. I
see six and a half out there. Total down from
two thirty two to about we'll call it two twenty
eight and a half right now. Seth Curry out for
the Warriors. Brunson doubtful, Shiman doubtful, Mitch rob questionable. The
Warriors coming off of that big win against the Blazers.
I did have the Warriors in that game. We'll see
if they can keep it going here versus next the Knicks.
It is the second of a back to back for them.
It is their four straight game with travel, so not
a good spot for them at all. And you know
now they're going to be probably without Jalen Brunson. You
just got Josh hartback. Now without Jalen Brunson, well that
is It is a lot, you know, to overcome in
this game. But at the same time, I'm nervous that
the Warriors could be making some praise. You see Kaminga,
you know, asking to be moved today. You never know
when that could happen. So getting involved with the Warriors early,
you never know if he could be packaged with some
of these guys or whatever the case may be. I
probably want to bet on title Koli. I think he'll
have a big role without Jalen Brunson being out there,
and I'd be betting the Warriors are staying away at
the current moment. You know, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think a lot of things here. Hey, when
you just spoke about Kaminga, Golden State had been keeping
him on the bench basically because they or at least
the reports I read, they know they're going to trade him.
It's just a matter of when and where. But Golden
State's been scoring lately. Ski that game you talked about
the other night with Portland, I had their team total over.
It got there barely, but it still got there. They
got to one nineteen the Knicks. My first look at
this with when Brunson got hurt last night and then
realizing Brunson wouldn't play tonight, my first reaction was probably
a scheduled loss for New York. Like you say, it's
been along road trip, Jalen's gonna sit. What do we care?
I have a problem thinking that maybe they can score
a little bit. That being said, my options become either
play the full game over or play Golden State over
against the Knicks team that really just wants to get
the heck out of there get back to Madison Square Garden.
I think I probably prefer Golden State's team totals, just
because they've shown me offense as of late, and I
don't know if the Knicks don't come out tonight and
play really hard in the second of back to backs,
and I'm not so sure that they don't get there
with these So for me, I think I'm gonna bet
this one Golden State over one seventeen and a half.
And I wouldn't argue anybody who thinks that, you know,
the Knicks might put up enough to get this full
game over as well. It's come down from two thirty
two to two twenty eight and a half basically on
the brunts and news. But I think you made a
good point that when Kolic's been asked to play, he's
been good. It's not just throwing another point guard out.
He's not brunting, but he's been really good. So gonna
take the Golden State team total over. Wouldn't argue anybody off.
Full game over.
Speaker 1: Chris stuff.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: You know, next up we're going to go to Hawks,
and Blazers opened up minus four still minus four. Total
went up from to twenty eight and a half. I'm
looking at we'll call it two thirty one and a half.
Injury report for the Hawks. Porzingis, I'm sorry. Porzingis and
Resae are out. Canard is questionable. For the Blazers, I
see Jeremy Grant questionable, Denny is doubtful, Goot, Murray, Tyble,
and well Wesley all out. So you will have Drew
Holliday back in the lineup, but he is still on
a minutes restriction, Youno. For myself, I'm not really interested
in the Blazers without Denny. I'm not interested in the
Blazers with Drew on a minute restriction. So you know,
with that thought process that would lead me towards the Hawks,
what I chose to do is take Alexander Walker over
twenty and a half points. Uh, he's been heading that
pretty much. Yeah, Whenever Trey Jung's I've been out there,
Whenever resch Is, I've been out there, whenever Pazinga is
not out there. It's just, you know, they rely on
him to do a lot more out the scoring, and
he's been doing it. So I'm going with Alexander Walker
over twenty and a half points and Hawks and Blazers.
Anything from you here, you.
Speaker 2: Know, real quick, I'll just kind of reinforce what you
said about not being interested without Abdia in the lineup.
Quote from the head coach, Jago Splitter. Without Denny, the
team has had to find a new identity to play
both offensively and defensively. You never want to see that.
Now they've been ten and four against the spread as
a home dog, but a lot of that is with
him in the lineup, and when the coach is telling
you we have to find a new way or had
to find a new way, and that the team. Another
one is it was a good game to get him
in some rhythm. Drew Holliday still on the minutes restriction,
but Splitter said he seems to be getting better as
time goes by here. So it's the fourth of a
fourth game road trip for Atlanta, which again there are
already two and one on this trip. Do they just
sacrifice it, go to and two and get out of dodge.
I don't think they'll sacrifice it, but I don't like
the fact that there's you know, front court size, and
that much from court size missing and scoring. Porzeingis obviously
been out, and to not have Resa che in there
as well. The other night they gave up one forty
one to the Lakers. You would think after giving up
one forty one you get a better defensive effort. It
kind of leads me towards under here, with the Blazers
saying that they had to find a new way without
Denny Abda, with the Hawks probably wanting to, you know,
be better defensively after giving up one forty one. So
maybe an underplay, but that's about it. I don't favor
either side here. If if Portland didn't have such a
good home dog record, maybe I would have been on Atlanta.
But I think I might look toward under two thirty
one and a half.
Speaker 1: Very very fair. Portland does have a good record there
in that role asking one slate Hornets at Lakers opened
up minus five and a half for the Lakers. Looks
like minus four or four and a half total around
where it opened at two thirty three and a half. Injuries,
Jackson Hayes's questionable, Reeves and Theero both out. Stexton and
Diabata are questionable. Plumble out for the Hornets. Third game
in four nights for these Lakers, and Lebron and Luca
did play in both of those back to back I mean,
I mean they did play in that back to back
for the Hornets. They've had a couple of days off,
the chance for them to get a little bit of
revenge as well. And not only that, you know they've
been playing a little bit better too. Have the Hornets
as a top five offense and defense last five games, La,
you're really inconsistent since Reeves has went down. You know,
after getting that win, you know they got embarrassed. They
got to win now the canne x Hiale. You know, first,
the more rested team playing better right now, getting points.
I'll take the points with the Hornets. What do you
think you're Lakers and Hornets?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really like the Hornets team total here Ski.
I mean, the Lakers came out, as you mentioned generally Lebron,
and Lebron had just said last week in the locker
room after a game, told the reporter, I'm forty one
years old. I don't play back to backs. And then
because they got embarrassed in the front end, he came
back and he played well, let's give him credit, played
well second of back to backs, and they scored one
forty one. But I still, I mean, I have no
faith in their defense whatsoever. I know, Charlotte's a tempo team.
One point fifteen just seems really low. You talked about
how well they've been playing. I would have been all
in on full game total, except when I went back
and looked at Charlotte's game logs, the amount of times
they've held people to under one hundred in the last
six just stopped me my tracks for full game and
pointed me towards Charlotte. I just don't trust the Laker
defense to stop them here. Even in the losing effort
the other night and the blowout effort the Hawks got
to one fifteen. Figure, Charlotte can get there and maybe
then then then some So I'm gonna be on I'm
already on Charlotte team total over one fifteen.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff. That's the NBA car for today.
So we will wrap it up. I will toss this
on the screen because I'm pretty sure it is still good.
Seven day all access for sixty nine dollars. That's pretty much.
You know, you're getting seven days for the price of three.
That's what that boils down. To get involved with either Rob,
you or myself, and Rob, I'm gonna pass it back
to you. I'll ask you if there's anything else you
would like to promote, and if you have the best
bet for the show, we love to hear it. If
you don't, it's all good.
Speaker 2: Like the promotion you just gave Ski, that seems to
be a you know, it's a popular package right now.
That's why they're leaving it up. Seven days for the
price of three. So for those who are interested, like
I say, the college basketball has been running really really good.
You get every sport in that package, and we know
what's going on in the NFL this week, and so
you get all our stuff seven day, seven day for
a three day price. I didn't leave best bet yesterday,
but I was pretty strong and released it to clients today,
So I'll leave one here right now, and that's the
Charlotte team total over we just talked about. It gave
the reasoning why I just see Charlotte coming out in
scoring points here, skinny, and it should be up tempo
against a defense that you know probably isn't gonna play.
They haven't played that well, let's put it that way.
So without any further explanation, that's just where I'm at here.
Best bet Charlotte team total over one fifteen.
Speaker 1: Good stuff on that, and yeah, for me, I will
go with I will go with Nikile Alexander Walker over
the twenty and a half points that I talked about.
You know, he's been smashed. It's number really honestly, Like
if you look, I'll just say all the things I
looked at recently without Porzingis, he's hit it seventeen of
the twenty one games. Last twenty one. I mean, crazy
hit rate. He's scoring. They're relying on him every game
without Perzingis and Res and treng It's only been four games.
He's hit it every single game. I mean, he's the
guy that're going to rely on the score in this one.
So I like Nikile Alexander Walker over the twenty and
a half points for my best bet. You know, always
good doing a show with you. Appreciate you taking the time.
Everybody in the chat, we appreciate you tapping in. Hit
the like button if you can. If you enjoyed the show,
it helps us out, and we'll be back again tomorrow Friday,
we'll play. You know, we usually have a nice slate
for the last day of the week of show, so
we'll take advantage and we'll see you all tomorrow