Speaker 1: I want me some glory over.
Speaker 2: Mm hmmmmmmmmm.
Speaker 1: H m.
Speaker 2: Hm.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Hello, Welcome to the FGH podcast.
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Speaker 1: Maybe you think each other glory. Oh se you're tuning
Speaker 1: in this week housball Cities. I'm join here, Adam oh By,
Speaker 1: my good buddy Ones.
Speaker 4: What the fuck all rid oh Ride, we're both seeface.
Speaker 1: Here we go.
Speaker 4: NFL week number six and this week, buddy, I celebrated
Speaker 4: a birthday and as I approached fifty, I'm approaching it.
Speaker 4: I see I see it on the horizon. It's not
Speaker 4: there yet. I'm wondering if I should stop the the
Speaker 4: throwing of the beer. The ship fits after horrible losses
Speaker 4: like I had in Arizona Tennessee game last week. My houses,
Speaker 4: my houses are getting much nicer than when I started
Speaker 4: the beer toss in this shitty apartment many many years ago.
Speaker 4: And on top of that, the may doesn't come until Fridays,
Speaker 4: so the beer mess just sits there for five days
Speaker 4: until she you know, comes around and starts cleaning up
Speaker 4: and My story is about how the beer happened in
Speaker 4: the corner and all that mess. She it's just not
Speaker 4: landing very well with her anymore.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 4: The moral of the story is, when you get older,
Speaker 4: stop throwing beer cans across the room after a bad beat.
Speaker 4: And number two, although it's getting much harder, make sure
Speaker 4: you hire a maid who does not speak English so
Speaker 4: she can't question the mystery of the flying fucking beer cans. Now,
Speaker 4: whether you are here for the funny, it's a question
Speaker 4: for fun.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have fun, and you're gonna have fun.
Speaker 4: We're all gonna have so much fucking fun. When the
Speaker 4: plastic surgery to remove our goddamn spiles, you'll be whistling
Speaker 4: symphony do to out of your assholes. You are here
Speaker 4: for the money. Anybody tells your money's the root of
Speaker 4: all evil.
Speaker 1: Doesn't fucking have any They say money can't buy happiness.
Speaker 4: Look at the fucking smile on my face. Here to hear, baby,
Speaker 4: you have come to the right place. Two questions for
Speaker 4: you people. Do you like football? What a stupid question?
Speaker 1: That is?
Speaker 4: What a stupid question? You ask a lot of stupid questions.
Speaker 4: My apologies, mister President's I will do better. Do you
Speaker 4: like money.
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I
Speaker 1: use it.
Speaker 4: I have a little I keep it in a jar
Speaker 4: on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more
Speaker 4: in that jar. That's where you come in. That's right,
Speaker 4: Adam Center, That's exactly where we come in. Visit our
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Speaker 4: right way, the winning way, the bet FGH way. And
Speaker 4: as always here on the sports patio, we got the
Speaker 4: TV's glowing, we got to bear heavily flowing tonight and
Speaker 4: right now it is everybody's most unfortunate favorite part of
Speaker 4: the show. My friend, tell the people all about your horrible, disgusting,
Speaker 4: how choice of the week.
Speaker 2: I still drug.
Speaker 4: I feel right do it.
Speaker 1: Well? Thank you everyone, sir, sir, it's not I'm drinking
Speaker 1: a soaking the dishes by Allston Beer Brewing Company in Alexandria, Virginia.
Speaker 4: These names of these beers, I swear to good they're
Speaker 4: just throwing shit. They're throwing beers across the room and
Speaker 4: wherever the name, wherever the name lands, they'll us throw
Speaker 4: at it. There's a throat on there.
Speaker 1: Well, it is very apropos that I'm drinking this beer tonight, Longhorner,
Speaker 1: because did you know that on this day in nineteen hundred,
Speaker 1: Helen Hayes was one, and she was, of course the
Speaker 1: quote first lady of American theater unquote. She won two
Speaker 1: Oscars thirty nine years apart. But of course she was
Speaker 1: best known for her sorry, she was best known for
Speaker 1: work on Broadway, where she would do the laundry and
Speaker 1: dishes of the mill actors who actually everybody paid to see.
Speaker 1: And of course, although she did get her screen time,
Speaker 1: she was still just a woman, and the male characters
Speaker 1: had to remind her that of this, I'm.
Speaker 4: A man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel
Speaker 4: Tower out of metal and brawn. That's what kind of
Speaker 4: man I am. You're just a woman with a small brain,
Speaker 4: with a brain a third the size of us. It's science, it.
Speaker 1: Is nine, longhorned. And although she was the first American
Speaker 1: woman of whatever America theater, nobody fucking knows her. Nobody
Speaker 1: even outside of this podcast, will ever remember that she existed.
Speaker 2: So you know it is what it is.
Speaker 1: Cheers to all the men and all the women doing
Speaker 1: all over along, thank you very much.
Speaker 4: As soon as you said first American woman, I zoned out.
Speaker 4: I kind of I kind of went blurry ahead, and
Speaker 4: I just was like, when is he gonna start talking
Speaker 4: about football? And then I think we're almost there, so
Speaker 4: so cheerous to that.
Speaker 5: Please and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages.
Speaker 4: Oh my god, Okay, it's happening. God, what do you
Speaker 4: think is happening right now?
Speaker 1: Xcuse me? What is happening here? What is happening? What
Speaker 1: the fuck just happened? Oh?
Speaker 4: You know what's happening.
Speaker 1: It's time for all those wins coming to the ads
Speaker 1: a knifeber all right, boys and girls, it is time
Speaker 1: for all those what's coming there to night. However, before
Speaker 1: we get there, I do have to remind you that
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Speaker 1: dot com for all your medical needs, all right, Longhorn.
Speaker 1: Tell you about some uh maybe some teams that might
Speaker 1: have some fucking uh medical needs. We're going We're gonna
Speaker 1: start over in London with those jets and those ten
Speaker 1: verb broncos are in London, and that line is sitting
Speaker 1: at Denver minus seven and a half and that's pretty solid, Longhorn.
Speaker 1: So what are you going on this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, the Jets. It's well, it's well documented how
Speaker 4: much I hate the head coach.
Speaker 1: I hate he s looves to put the sounder on
Speaker 1: the Jets. You know, he loves he loves to do,
Speaker 1: he loves to do.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's a good that's a good disclaimer on
Speaker 4: being able to say that this week there's is gonna
Speaker 4: be a lot of favorites that I like, which is unusual.
Speaker 4: It's not how I usually like to lean and and
Speaker 4: find find you know, uh picks. But it is what
Speaker 4: it is, and it's not even a heavy teaser week.
Speaker 4: So it's just a it's just a weird week for
Speaker 4: me where I'm not going to have a whole lot
Speaker 4: of action, to be quite honest with you, and serting
Speaker 4: not a lot of action with the sounders and the
Speaker 4: danger zones and the big dig pick. So it's gonna
Speaker 4: be a little weak on that. But Jets are in
Speaker 4: the do not bet, do not touch, do not pass
Speaker 4: go with Tennessee for me, and I know Tennessee got
Speaker 4: the we well documented Arizona cover loss bullshit last week.
Speaker 4: That's I'm going against Tennessee literally the next ten weeks.
Speaker 4: I don't care. Like they're a horrible team. And then
Speaker 4: Jets are the same thing to me, the fact that
Speaker 4: this is overseas, so you got you got a new
Speaker 4: coach Sunday somewhere overseas, over there Australia, New England, England,
Speaker 4: who knows they're over there somewhere, new head coach, who
Speaker 4: doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't know what he's
Speaker 4: doing on American soil, So I don't know that he
Speaker 4: can handle this kind of He can't handle this kind
Speaker 4: of travel and preparation takes. And Sean Paynton's been in
Speaker 4: the league for a very long time. So this is
Speaker 4: just a massive, massive head coaching mismatch, and in on
Speaker 4: the field, it's just a massive mismatch from what we've
Speaker 4: seen so far. As you're now, I do think the
Speaker 4: Jets are better on paper than what they've shown, but
Speaker 4: they're on five because they have no head coach. And
Speaker 4: this is what happens when you do a d IHR
Speaker 4: dee I in the NFL. Is might as well be
Speaker 4: d I E. You are, You're dead, You're you're gonna die.
Speaker 4: You got nothing, so it's not gonna work.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they would take you know, pensidents.
Speaker 4: Well, that wasn't. That's a great hire they've had. They've
Speaker 4: had three head coaches in seventy years or whatever it is,
Speaker 4: So they clearly know what they're doing. That's that's the
Speaker 4: that that that ain't d I that's that's like they
Speaker 4: know what they're doing and they made a good pick.
Speaker 4: But this was a bad one. But now I said,
Speaker 4: there's not a lot of teasers. You don't ever tease
Speaker 4: a favorite on the road down. It's not. It doesn't.
Speaker 4: That's not the wrong strategy, it's not. That's not what
Speaker 4: you do. But this isn't a technical road. This is
Speaker 4: a neutral site. So if you want to play with Denver,
Speaker 4: teas down and pair them up with with maybe Detroit
Speaker 4: or there's not a whole lot of candidates this week,
Speaker 4: so that's a possibility that you could play with, so
Speaker 4: be it. Yeah, I'm on Denver every which way. I'm
Speaker 4: fading the Jets all year long until proven differently, same
Speaker 4: as Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Except that you just bet on the Jets.
Speaker 4: Plus, yeah, that was that was their last straw. That
Speaker 4: was my last straw. Well, I mean, how long did
Speaker 4: it take first to get off the Tennessee thing, Like,
Speaker 4: I mean took that or at least me, it took
Speaker 4: a long time. So it's everybody's got a breaking point
Speaker 4: on teams.
Speaker 1: And I never got on Tennessee until I got on them,
Speaker 1: and then I immediately lost off of them. However, I
Speaker 1: just have to say, so, okay, so let's look at
Speaker 1: I'm not totally disagree with the year. So I'm just
Speaker 1: playing a little bit of devils having good. So in
Speaker 1: this game, I had Denver minus six, Vegs had minus
Speaker 1: six and a half. It's sitting at minus seven. Now
Speaker 1: it's taking money on the Jets side. Now the money
Speaker 1: is starting to trickle back in on looks like Denver. However,
Speaker 1: you're talking about a Bownecks led team that is not
Speaker 1: really good scoring the ball, laying seven to seven and
Speaker 1: a half dep anywhere you want to get this. It's
Speaker 1: still seven halfs available. I don't know so power rankings wise,
Speaker 1: it's now called buckets. Great, it's the Jets Denver who
Speaker 1: gets the V two, Just get the D two. The
Speaker 1: over runner sitting forty three and a half. I've got
Speaker 1: this Broncos winning twenty four to twenty one, which slightly over.
Speaker 1: Now I have it in a special team's grade on this,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go over them just because I want
Speaker 1: to see how they kind of work out. I did
Speaker 1: retro grade last week with this new special teams that
Speaker 1: algorithm I'll come up with. And last week, just for
Speaker 1: full transparency, the totals in the BBG with four and four. However,
Speaker 1: if you added a special teams trading and they went
Speaker 1: five and three, but that's retroacting, so I can't say
Speaker 1: that's accurate. We'll track it going forward and we'll kind
Speaker 1: of see what this looks like. But even with the
Speaker 1: special teams in, it's twenty five to twenty two, so
Speaker 1: it's still the over. So I do leand to the over.
Speaker 1: Now the home team technically is the Jets. It's not
Speaker 1: the best matchup Frials he loses a half a point.
Speaker 1: It's decent matchup for bo Naci gains a half a point.
Speaker 1: Both running games should be around normal. However, this one
Speaker 1: trend I did pull. If you're on five and it's
Speaker 1: week six, since twenty twelve, we've had seventeen games of
Speaker 1: that long horn seven and ten straight up so losing record. However,
Speaker 1: ats ten and seven, two point four points ats margin
Speaker 1: on that, and that's been the line of six and
Speaker 1: a half. It's about where we're at. So not in
Speaker 1: an eightst the over which the numbers du suesses go over.
Speaker 1: I like the Jets. I like the over. That's the
Speaker 1: way I would play this one. I don't believe Bonis
Speaker 1: can beat I don't believe Bonnis can beat fucking Air
Speaker 1: by fucking seven points. He sucks. And that's the way
Speaker 1: I would go with that. And again you're I mean,
Speaker 1: you're looking at the h to five team going to
Speaker 1: to six that there had at some point there has
Speaker 1: to be some fight with this team. If not now,
Speaker 1: then win If I mean again, where if you look
Speaker 1: at the games Broncos one, they smother people defensively, they
Speaker 1: get lucky offensively. Maybe they can do that here because
Speaker 1: the Jets offensive obviously isn't great and it doesn't great
Speaker 1: out great again against this team, But are they really
Speaker 1: gonna go win by eight points Overseas? Spelled Dixon's first
Speaker 1: turn Overseas too. He's not a mature person at all.
Speaker 1: That's well documented. I don't know it. It's not I
Speaker 1: don't have a great feeling for it. But yeah, I'll
Speaker 1: take the Jets and the fucking over.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot there. Let's just I'll let the
Speaker 4: comments section take care of a lot of that for me.
Speaker 4: They'll they'll, they'll get on that.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to those Indians, those Indiana Jones's hosting
Speaker 1: those fighting midgets. They're on the road. I'm told you
Speaker 1: that's where the midgets come to fight. It's on the
Speaker 1: road performers. Maybe that's what they do, it's what they do.
Speaker 1: Let's see where this game is at right now. Preseason,
Speaker 1: this game was at Arizona minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: Let's see where I had it. I had it one
Speaker 1: and half, Vegas at one half, so we're lock step.
Speaker 1: We were lockstep. Obviously we were way fucking wrong because
Speaker 1: this game, let's see where it's at currently, it's at
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So me and Banks, me and Veanks,
Speaker 1: we're literally six points off on this game. Does that
Speaker 1: seem possible? I don't know. I mean, I've been wrong
Speaker 1: many times in my life. I've been that.
Speaker 4: It's definitely the way it's going.
Speaker 1: Very very rarely have I been that wrong, though the
Speaker 1: long more, where do you go.
Speaker 4: On this well, this one actually is one that falls
Speaker 4: into the to the teaser category. Indy at home catching
Speaker 4: the seven, seven and a half, You can tease them down,
Speaker 4: I certainly have. But on this one, Kyler is just Yes,
Speaker 4: this is normally a great Kyler. This is the this
Speaker 4: is the spot you want Kyler in dog This is
Speaker 4: this sweet spot for sure. But Kyler's a little bitch.
Speaker 4: And Kyler might not play this. He might not play
Speaker 4: this week. He's gonna bitch out. He's he's You don't
Speaker 4: like the heat that he's getting from a ball hitting
Speaker 4: him in the face mask and now he's concussed. He's
Speaker 4: got a little ankle row issue. He didn't dive on
Speaker 4: the ball when he when he hit him on the
Speaker 4: face mask, he just did the Cam Newton stared at it.
Speaker 4: Didn't even didn't even try. He's just of he is
Speaker 4: the He's just a bitch. He's not he you give
Speaker 4: bow Nick someer ship with like Tyler. Kyler has all
Speaker 4: the talent. He's just a bitch, So you go ahead.
Speaker 1: I don't I don't give a lot of love to
Speaker 1: Lebron James NFL.
Speaker 4: Except diminutive, y'all.
Speaker 1: Now, Lebron James is like the greatest athlete we've ever seen,
Speaker 1: and he's fucking won two championships. Whatever, it's kind it's
Speaker 1: kind of the same.
Speaker 4: It's kind of the same now as far as the
Speaker 4: and another reason, like any is and I'm all over
Speaker 4: into here every which way. I don't know, I don't
Speaker 4: even mind laying in the points because yeah, because like
Speaker 4: if we get Kyler, then we're getting him not one
Speaker 4: hundred percent. And we know when he's not one hundred percent,
Speaker 4: he doesn't run the ball. He doesn't he doesn't run
Speaker 4: the ball when he's not one hundred percent, So like
Speaker 4: you're not getting the best of Kler Murray. And like,
Speaker 4: and so if he's gonna be out there and he
Speaker 4: does actually fight through and play this game, you're not
Speaker 4: getting the real Klin Murray. Which that that knocks the
Speaker 4: value off the seven and seven half that you would
Speaker 4: normally be a sweet spot for color. But if he
Speaker 4: doesn't play well, then obviously you're gonna have Jacoby Pressett
Speaker 4: and I don't you know, I don't really like that.
Speaker 4: And then and then the final thing is the is
Speaker 4: the divided locker room. Okay, we've got obviously we all
Speaker 4: saw the thing with the code coach and the running
Speaker 4: back thumbing the ball. People are on both sides of this.
Speaker 4: People are like, oh, the coach out in the same thing.
Speaker 4: I'd have been pissed off. I'm tired of these players
Speaker 4: doing that. And then other people are gonna be like, hey,
Speaker 4: you shouldn't. You can't. You can never put your hands
Speaker 4: on a player, which is complete bullshit. So but just
Speaker 4: just saying that, I guarantee that some players that are like, oh, you,
Speaker 4: coach has a little out of bounds. You shouldn't doing that.
Speaker 4: And it's probably some players like yay, maybe don't fucking
Speaker 4: fumble the ball in one yard line and costs a
Speaker 4: goddamn win in the NFL. So you've got to divide
Speaker 4: a locker room that's not going to fix itself immediately
Speaker 4: in one week. So yeah, everything points to Indy. I like,
Speaker 4: I want no part of Arizona and that cancer that
Speaker 4: they got going on with them right now. It may
Speaker 4: fix at a certain point this season if they can
Speaker 4: pull it out, but no, this week. Give me all Indy,
Speaker 4: any any way you can get them all right, So.
Speaker 1: On the power raise, no goal buckets, no goal V
Speaker 1: two D two Arizona now I do have this gaded
Speaker 1: out twenty four twenty Indy. This is with Colin playing.
Speaker 1: Obviously it's not a great matchup though for Indiana. Jones
Speaker 1: versus Defense actually would be a half a point better
Speaker 1: for Kylin Murray if he does play. But it's a
Speaker 1: flat matchup for Indy's running game. It's minus half a
Speaker 1: point three Arizona's running game. And that's what's going to
Speaker 1: great out India as the winner here, not cover seven
Speaker 1: and a half. But if Colin doesn't play, who knows,
Speaker 1: you know, Joe Brissett, maybe they're better, maybe they're worse.
Speaker 1: I don't fucking know. I mean, like you said, they don't.
Speaker 1: We didn't. We just talked about this. They don't even
Speaker 1: use Coller's legs anymore what he does but play calling Loise.
Speaker 1: They don't like the design runs are way fucking down
Speaker 1: to what they what they were when he was a
Speaker 1: younger player. So if jagober Set plays, I mean, are
Speaker 1: we are we really sure that Jagobra Pressett is a
Speaker 1: worse passer than Colin Murray? If you're just talking out
Speaker 1: of the pocket, Yes, I don't think we are. I
Speaker 1: don't think we're that.
Speaker 4: I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think it's that big of downgrade.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the affirmative on that one.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be off this game completely.
Speaker 4: So I'm just playing now if you're saying, if you're saying,
Speaker 4: do I think that Jacoby Brisset can kind of just
Speaker 4: hold up? And yeah, that's a that's a different discussion though,
Speaker 4: Like but as far as like throwing the fucking football,
Speaker 4: it's not even close between those two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm saying, can you cover seven points to keep?
Speaker 4: No, you didn't say that. No, you didn't say that.
Speaker 4: If you say that, then I agree with you. You
Speaker 4: might have a bit. You might have a better shot
Speaker 4: with Jacob because we've seen it for years and years,
Speaker 4: him coming in and even though he's not God, yeah
Speaker 4: he's back.
Speaker 1: I remember very steeply. It was fucking Rams versus the
Speaker 1: forty Nins. I had like the under forty nine. Its
Speaker 1: two years ago. He fucking comes in as sorry.
Speaker 4: I about to say, when did he play for either
Speaker 4: one of those teams?
Speaker 1: Arizona comes into the fucking backup. No, it was the
Speaker 1: Red Sorry, it was the Redskins and the Rams.
Speaker 4: Okay, the Residents are.
Speaker 1: The doors blown off? I had all have was down
Speaker 1: under forty nine? He comes in after who was he
Speaker 1: got hurt? I can't even remember who the fucking quarterback
Speaker 1: was at that point. And he fucking scores two touchdowns
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and told the trash time, it
Speaker 1: blows my goddamn under just because he can simply take
Speaker 1: a snap, perform the offense, hit through his fucking backstep
Speaker 1: with his third, fifth or seven, and deliver a fucking
Speaker 1: football on fucking time. That's what jacobra for said, can
Speaker 1: absolutely fucking do and right now Calamerray not absolutely fucking
Speaker 1: doing that again, does it make it better than him? No?
Speaker 1: To your point, can they cover seven him? Yeah? Probably,
Speaker 1: I'm not.
Speaker 4: Betting on it, but whatever, Well, the coach had to
Speaker 4: write a check for one hundred thousand dollars this week,
Speaker 4: so that's uh, that's how one's gonna sting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's a great one that you bring up.
Speaker 1: I didn't touch on it because I don't know. I
Speaker 1: don't know which way to go on. I really don't.
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think the whole locker room knows. Like
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be divided and you're gonna have
Speaker 4: some that are like, man, fuck that fuck that guy.
Speaker 4: Both ways, it's gonna be like fuck that dude to
Speaker 4: dropped the ball. And he's a defensive coach, so it's
Speaker 4: probably offensive guys gonna be like the Mark. They're gonna,
Speaker 4: you know, defend, Hey, don't touch our guy, and the
Speaker 4: defense guy's like, hey, man, but yeah, but you fucked
Speaker 4: us out of a win, like you know you. So
Speaker 4: I don't know. It's it's uh not good times over
Speaker 4: there in arizon I'm glad I bailed off them winning
Speaker 4: this division. I was trying to pick somebody else beside
Speaker 4: San Frian and that's that's on the struggle bus right now.
Speaker 4: With San Francis, seemingly that just they just don't lose,
Speaker 4: because no matter all the fucking herd players in the
Speaker 4: world doesn't matter. Just keep fucking winning. But I belt
Speaker 4: off Arizona win with Seattle and we'll see how that
Speaker 4: plays out.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was too high on Seattle coming in obviously.
Speaker 1: I just I had faith that, you know, this coach,
Speaker 1: he's had a team going and saw the right direction
Speaker 1: and I thought that caliber would take it at least
Speaker 1: a step forward.
Speaker 4: But I don't like the way he coached, so like
Speaker 4: take throw all that, like the way he coached that game,
Speaker 4: and he's not the offensive coordinator. I get it, he's
Speaker 4: not making the offensive calls.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he said that was a bitch as that was
Speaker 1: about to Oh my god, yeah, bitch ass fucking like, dude,
Speaker 1: you don't bitch out when you're dominating the whole game.
Speaker 1: And they did, and they did, and he signs off
Speaker 1: on that.
Speaker 4: You're right, all the momentum went to Tennessee though, So
Speaker 4: at that point, all the minimums with Tennessee and you
Speaker 4: you have to get a first down because they're literally
Speaker 4: they have you can't run, run, run in the middle
Speaker 4: of the fucking line. That was a horrible like so
Speaker 4: so now I'm looking at you sideways as the head
Speaker 4: coach a little bit. So we'll see how that plays out.
Speaker 1: You were about that. That was fucking disgusting and I
Speaker 1: can't believe that he fucking did that. Shit. Let's move
Speaker 1: one of those Pittsburgh things. Oh coming off though, ye
Speaker 1: boys and girls hosting those Cleveland Browns. Good lord, they've
Speaker 1: went to fucking I don't know, Amstam and fucking back
Speaker 1: and now they have to go all the way to
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to play their arrivals who are coming off of
Speaker 1: I don't know, twelve thirteen days rest. Oh, good lord, almighty.
Speaker 1: Uh Now this game it was Let's see what did
Speaker 1: I have? Well, I have Pittsburgh way fucking lower or
Speaker 1: at Cleveland way fucking lower than the market. So let's
Speaker 1: look at where we're at now live looks like five
Speaker 1: and a half juiced. Let's call it five point seven,
Speaker 1: somewhere between five and a half and six. Long morning.
Speaker 4: What do you like on this? Yeah, you want to
Speaker 4: get that Pittsburgh before it gets to six everywhere or higher.
Speaker 4: This is probably going well. Cleveland's defense is good in theory.
Speaker 4: It's not good on the road. I'll get to that,
Speaker 4: but in theory, the defense is good enough to where
Speaker 4: people are gonna want to keep this five and.
Speaker 1: A half right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, grab it now.
Speaker 1: Where you can get it other than that is six?
Speaker 1: Where else six and juice the six at Bovada, So
Speaker 1: that's even six at westit even six at circa to
Speaker 1: the Sharper books in Vegas. But if the money keeps
Speaker 1: coming in which it is right now on Pittsburgh, you
Speaker 1: know which way it's going.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is like this is the spot of spots,
Speaker 4: and it's a little troublesome that everybody in the world
Speaker 4: knows this is the worst spot in the history of
Speaker 4: spots for Cleveland. Uh So that that gives me that
Speaker 4: I don't like that when everybody knows something and it's
Speaker 4: like that isn't even a point anymore. If everyone knows it,
Speaker 4: is it is it like this? You're not, Yeah, you
Speaker 4: have got you got no advantage there.
Speaker 1: But so the preseason line, just to put it in
Speaker 1: a contest, like I was way off, but I'll just
Speaker 1: give the bath Vegas prezeas line was Pittsburgh about six
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's probably where it's gonna settle in at.
Speaker 1: I mean, so let's just think about Lohren real quick.
Speaker 1: Let's just talk around table to this six and a
Speaker 1: half and now we have the and of course that
Speaker 1: preseason line tooking into effect the spot and everything else. Yeah,
Speaker 1: now are we saying at five and a half five
Speaker 1: point seven, five six? What everyone to say that we've
Speaker 1: seen half a point of downgrade for Pittsburgh or half
Speaker 1: a point of upgrade for Cleveland. With a quarterback's backing
Speaker 1: his second start, first time playing in Pittsburgh. Is that
Speaker 1: what we're saying is that we're saying that Cleveland somehow
Speaker 1: has gotten better in this spot.
Speaker 4: No, Cleveland's worst is especially with this new quarterback, the rookie.
Speaker 4: And how is Pittsburgh not better? They're they're probably gonna
Speaker 4: win this division, They're I mean.
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. You know it's funny, and this
Speaker 1: this is insane thing. I looked up these stats three
Speaker 1: and one. Well, no, I look up these stats elither
Speaker 1: to day, So to bet to win the division? What
Speaker 1: would you guess Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Speaker 4: Are right now, right now close to even?
Speaker 1: Is that not insane to you? Baltimore? Baltimore is one
Speaker 1: and four and they don't have the starting quarterback and
Speaker 1: they're not gonna happen this week.
Speaker 4: And they're gonna go one and they're gonna go one
Speaker 4: in five and Steelers are probably gonna be four and one.
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's insane. Is that not insane? It is?
Speaker 1: It is? So what is that telling you in the market? Like,
Speaker 1: how bo is this Pittsburgh like? For like, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't even know, and I'm just asked the question.
Speaker 1: I have no answer.
Speaker 4: I just think that I think there's too many I
Speaker 4: think that the the the ratings on Baltimore were so
Speaker 4: high that there's just too much prior set in to
Speaker 4: where the market can't adjust enough. And maybe they're not
Speaker 4: getting enough money. I don't know, because it's just for
Speaker 4: like two weeks now, or I guess how long has
Speaker 4: Lamar been out? Two weeks?
Speaker 1: Two weeks?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, this will be a second, second or third. No,
Speaker 4: so he went out during the right, Okay, Yeah, so
Speaker 4: so for a week and a half, it's been just
Speaker 4: way undervalued and this will probably be the breaking point
Speaker 4: and you'll get like just retarded, retarded changing of the
Speaker 4: of the numbers on you.
Speaker 1: So you have your best bet right now, like fuck
Speaker 1: this game. Fuck betting this game. Your best bet right
Speaker 1: now would have to be betting Pittsburgh plus one the
Speaker 1: win division, right, is.
Speaker 4: That what it is? Plus one? Ten? Well then yeah, yeah,
Speaker 4: because it's so.
Speaker 1: Fuck this game completely off, Like, don't even bet this game.
Speaker 1: Just bet Pittsburgh plus ones in the win division.
Speaker 4: I mean sure, but I mean I like Pittsburgh in
Speaker 4: this game too, but like, uh sure, why would you double?
Speaker 1: Like I mean, I get where gamblers whatever.
Speaker 4: Oh I'm making a pick on every game. It's not
Speaker 4: not necessarily that I'm gonna put this game out, But like.
Speaker 1: In your gambling portfolio, I'm just speaking the kind of
Speaker 1: elevator turns. Like in your gambling portfolio, you would have
Speaker 1: to have a Pittsburgh plus once into your portfolio at
Speaker 1: this point.
Speaker 4: Right, I mean unless you think that, and uh, Cincinnati
Speaker 4: is gonna make.
Speaker 1: A there's no chance. That's it. That's the other thing.
Speaker 1: These have no chance.
Speaker 4: They're they're all dead. It's it's basically every team is dead.
Speaker 4: Like I mean, Baltimore will start winning games after because
Speaker 4: there they got a buy after this one. They're kind
Speaker 4: of packing it in and just waiting for the buy.
Speaker 4: And and if they don't go on like a six
Speaker 4: game winning streak to eat at least make it interesting
Speaker 4: towards the end, they can and once they get healthy.
Speaker 4: But here's the thing, because they weren't even even when
Speaker 4: they were healthy to start the year, we saw major issues. Yeah, like,
Speaker 4: which is kind I mean, how I don't know that.
Speaker 4: Weird things happen in football. You can have an all
Speaker 4: star looking type unit on paper, and and just in football,
Speaker 4: it's so it's just so different. It can be it
Speaker 4: can just go sideways for for whatever a variety of reasons.
Speaker 4: And and it's happening this year to Baltimore and yeah, Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Win the Super Bowl, I can't be more proud.
Speaker 4: Well, look, you can't.
Speaker 1: You knew, you knew. We've never ever of the show.
Speaker 1: So did that probably, I.
Speaker 4: Think probably when if that happens next year on our
Speaker 4: preseason pod, I'm probably gonna do it audible. No, I'm
Speaker 4: just gonna do audible like that until that pot ends.
Speaker 4: I can change it. Until that pot ends, I can
Speaker 4: change So if if it comes down to that last
Speaker 4: seroal pick and you've got let's just say, let's make
Speaker 4: it realistic and say that we both have the Cowboys.
Speaker 4: That was a joke. Hope everybody got Hope, everybody got it.
Speaker 4: If we both got the Cowboys. And now I'm gonna
Speaker 4: be like, no, I'm throwing the challenge flag. I'm changing
Speaker 4: mind to do at you know, X, y Z, so whatever.
Speaker 1: But that's fine, you can do that because if we're
Speaker 1: both in the field, I'm just gonna fade that team
Speaker 1: for like the first eight weeks.
Speaker 4: That's that's another way I attack it too. That's another
Speaker 4: way I take it, but just to finish this game,
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's getting healthy. Talked about the spot rookie quarterback, international
Speaker 4: flight back on the road, back on the road after
Speaker 4: an international game against a good defense. That's getting Heistmith back,
Speaker 4: Joey Porter junior back uh and Tomlin Tomlan who coming
Speaker 4: off a bye is actually pretty good. So he's he's
Speaker 4: seven to three off a bye in the first half
Speaker 4: of the season. Like, you haven't buy in the first
Speaker 4: half of the season. This is one of his sweet spots.
Speaker 4: Weird trade for Cleveland. Cleveland made a weird trade with Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: Like and they obviously traded flaccoh too, but that not
Speaker 4: that that one matters, Yeah, but don't care the Flako
Speaker 4: one that doesn't matter in this game. That don't matter
Speaker 4: in a different game. But they traded Greg Newsom their cornerback,
Speaker 4: for Campbell, the cornerback for Jacksonville. Weird on both sides.
Speaker 4: I don't I don't really get it either way. And
Speaker 4: I haven't heard like any inside stories on why exactly
Speaker 4: and who initiated or because Campbell's Campbell's not playing well,
Speaker 4: but he has played well in the past. Newsom has
Speaker 4: always been a kind of decent number two cornerback. I
Speaker 4: don't know, just weird shit going on. I mean he's
Speaker 4: had some jag years like Campbell is this year. I
Speaker 4: don't know. This is weird, just weird. So give me
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh and in every way including division to win.
Speaker 1: All right, So you did throw the tumult after the
Speaker 1: bi However, I do need to throw this in just
Speaker 1: so everybody knows, since twenty eighteen, after the buy your
Speaker 1: home and your favorite, it's the worst spot. Twenty nine
Speaker 1: and forty two and three, ATS loses about one point.
Speaker 1: It's forty eight point forty point eight percent on Arizona
Speaker 1: six point three. That's about where we're gonna land at
Speaker 1: forty four point nine on the toe, fifty three point
Speaker 1: four percent to the over the one point over, so
Speaker 1: thirty and a half is fucking gross. So not a
Speaker 1: good trend to back Pittsburgh there. However, you said toumm's
Speaker 1: that trend beater, so we'll see which way that ends
Speaker 1: up slipping to make my card either way. Uh, all right,
Speaker 1: let's move on to those care a lot of panthers bristils.
Speaker 1: This can all right, This one is interesting as fucked me.
Speaker 1: So I had this game as pick Vegas has it
Speaker 1: had at Carolina plus one and a half. It is
Speaker 1: now Dallas minus three live as we said, So I
Speaker 1: was close in Vegas on this one. I don't know,
Speaker 1: lohe where you go?
Speaker 4: Yeah, on this one, I was kind of like, much
Speaker 4: like the New York Jets Dallas Cowboys matchup last week,
Speaker 4: I was I like Carolina, especially at the three and
Speaker 4: a half. It's at three now, so it's you kind
Speaker 4: of lost somebody there. It's kind of struggling back and forth,
Speaker 4: which which one do I like on this one? And
Speaker 4: I finally land on I don't. I'm not taking either ones.
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take the over because we've saw last week.
Speaker 4: Even if Dallas plays okay defense for a while, they're
Speaker 4: not a good defense. The Jets rolled up. You know,
Speaker 4: those are like almost twenty second half points on them,
Speaker 4: and Carolina they're not a good defense. So and we
Speaker 4: know Dak destroys bad teams. He's sixty five percent ats
Speaker 4: against bad teams in his career. It's just what he does.
Speaker 4: So he did last week to the Jets. That was
Speaker 4: my fear last week. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna
Speaker 4: bum my head against that wall again this week. And
Speaker 4: then on top of that, the Cowboys can't stop the run.
Speaker 4: So we've got Chuba Hubbard probably coming back this week.
Speaker 4: We got Rego Dawdle, you know, kind of his uh
Speaker 4: his payback for the castile. So Caroline's gonna score, Cowboys
Speaker 4: are gonna score. I'm not fucking around with with his
Speaker 4: number anymore in this game. And just give me the over.
Speaker 4: I think it's around forty nine fifty, you know, right
Speaker 4: right there in that in that sweet spot, so you
Speaker 4: know it. Just I'm not I'm not trying to get
Speaker 4: too cute here. Just give me the over.
Speaker 1: All, right, So I've got this one power range is ready,
Speaker 1: Carolina buckets Carolina to no call dto Carolina. I've got it.
Speaker 1: Cowboys winning twenty, which be to the undup. And if
Speaker 1: you factor in my new uh SO, team's great. It's
Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty, which is to the under. Salon
Speaker 1: is gonna lose one is over bet, so don't follow
Speaker 1: him on that. Now. This is literally we say this
Speaker 1: every week. So one of the best grades, the fucking
Speaker 1: Briscoe is gonna have it. You can't step with the
Speaker 1: BVG through the shitty fucking aboys defense. But here's the thing, girls,
Speaker 1: Dad actually loses half a point this Carolina saying there
Speaker 1: is getting better, it's getting better. Not staying it's good,
Speaker 1: but it's getting better. It's getting it's getting better. Now,
Speaker 1: Carolina's flat through the running game. Dallas actually does gain
Speaker 1: a point though through the running game there, so that
Speaker 1: should help them. That's what should carry them to the win. Here,
Speaker 1: it's a no call for me on the line. I'm
Speaker 1: like along over that. I don't care anything about the line,
Speaker 1: you know, It's it's one of those things that it
Speaker 1: might end up making my card at three, just depending
Speaker 1: on how the rest of the data flows in. However, Well,
Speaker 1: all the money's coming out Carolina. You know, the market's
Speaker 1: coming on Carolina. It's I don't know, but I would
Speaker 1: lean Carolina and the under here. I would not take
Speaker 1: the over. He's dead wrong about that. He's gonna lose.
Speaker 1: He's gonna lose, and you should take the under and
Speaker 1: lean Carolina.
Speaker 2: M M all right.
Speaker 1: Moving on to those my Hammer dogs hosting those Sandyaco
Speaker 1: super charges, and they are currently let's see four point
Speaker 1: home dogs now. Preseason, I had this the charges of
Speaker 1: minus two and Vegas said it one and a half,
Speaker 1: so close with no cigar, we're sitting for a little
Speaker 1: bit worse. What's I mean? I think, Longhorn, that's a
Speaker 1: fair downgrade on Miami so far. And I was hired
Speaker 1: on Miami murdered for the most part, so that tells
Speaker 1: me that this number is pretty fair. Here, what do
Speaker 1: you got on this?
Speaker 4: What's a sitting at right now?
Speaker 1: Four?
Speaker 4: Four? Yeah, this one, This one just feels like a
Speaker 4: Miami spot that I'm gonna probably reluctantly have to be
Speaker 4: on in some form of fashion, but on you know,
Speaker 4: on paper, on paper, this should be a nice little
Speaker 4: spot for the Charters. You know, bad pass rush for Miami,
Speaker 4: which is weird because they have good pass rushers, horrible
Speaker 4: secondary for Miami, which we knew going in, so it's
Speaker 4: a bad setup. Charters should be able to take advantage
Speaker 4: of that.
Speaker 1: But they broken, Like are they are? Like? Are they broken?
Speaker 4: The Charters are? Their offense is going to be broken
Speaker 4: if they're running out second and third string offensive lineman and.
Speaker 1: Use like literally use all receivers off his love like
Speaker 1: every excuse you ever, like it's always excuses for her.
Speaker 1: At some point, can the dude just like be the dude,
Speaker 1: can be the dude?
Speaker 4: I don't know, and mahomes be the dude. He's two
Speaker 4: and four? Can he be the dude with without without
Speaker 4: one straight championship? Okay, but my point being, you have
Speaker 4: to have players. When he had players, he was three
Speaker 4: and oh. I'm not making excuses I'm making I'm giving
Speaker 4: reasons why they're losing games now because they don't have
Speaker 4: their players. I mean, what do you mean, tell you
Speaker 4: they got they got? I mean they should win this game.
Speaker 4: They I mean, and you know they're favored, so they
Speaker 4: clearly they should. If they don't, it's because they're not
Speaker 4: gonna be able to score. And Herbert's not good in
Speaker 4: one score games historically, is not what he does. So
Speaker 4: if this, if this is gonna be a one score
Speaker 4: game and he's gonna like, it's just I don't. I
Speaker 4: don't see this own. Well, I'm gonna have to take
Speaker 4: the four points. I would prefer the four and a half,
Speaker 4: but that's kind of gone everywhere, so I don't. I mean,
Speaker 4: cross country, you're going cross country and the heat. I mean,
Speaker 4: I know they're I know they're from California, so maybe
Speaker 4: it won't be too bad. But that's and is this a.
Speaker 1: Miami is a lot different?
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's a it's a noon kickoff. So they
Speaker 4: we saw the Chargers go to the Giants. That was
Speaker 4: a noon kickoff game. Uh. They they didn't look they
Speaker 4: didn't look great. Uh they won that. Yeah, they won
Speaker 4: that game, but it wasn't pretty.
Speaker 1: They lost.
Speaker 4: Do they lose that one? Okay? Yeah, so okay, yeah,
Speaker 4: I've got to reluctantly take by the way.
Speaker 1: So like literally this money is crashing down, crashing.
Speaker 4: But I don't feel good about Miami either, because they
Speaker 4: are just not And you know, if if the Chargers,
Speaker 4: if the Chargers are gonna win, it's gonna be a
Speaker 4: discussing seventeen to thirteen win, it's gonna be low scoring.
Speaker 4: Miami sucks on offense right now, they got their their
Speaker 4: weapons are just fading fast and to it, we know
Speaker 4: that he's limited. Also, I mean it's the same sort
Speaker 4: with any of these quarterbacks that aren't the all time grace.
Speaker 4: They're gonna be limited unless everything is kind of the
Speaker 4: way it's supposed to be around them. And and it's
Speaker 4: not right now for Miami, and it's not right now
Speaker 4: for the Chargers. So low scoring. Give in a low
Speaker 4: scoring game, always lean to the points, you know. That's
Speaker 4: that's what the side I'm gonna be on, all right.
Speaker 1: So powerings are on the charters bucket. No call B two,
Speaker 1: no call D two, no call forty three and a
Speaker 1: half percent a hundred. It's a long worm's point, disgusting,
Speaker 1: ugly game. The BBG has its great out twenty two
Speaker 1: to twenty LAC so all a lot of numbers agree
Speaker 1: with him. Home quarterback matchup, it's not. It's a terrible
Speaker 1: matchup for two. He loses a point and a half
Speaker 1: of the BBG to this. I believe LC defense. It's
Speaker 1: a flat matchup for herbs. It's a flat matchup for
Speaker 1: both running games. There's no advantage there. Look, if you're
Speaker 1: gonna tell me that herbs will be just herbs and
Speaker 1: two is gonna suck and they're both gonna run the
Speaker 1: ball at the cliff that normally run the ball, I'll
Speaker 1: take the under. I'll take Miami and are disgusting, Like
Speaker 1: you said, just gross, just sweaty fucking win that I
Speaker 1: probably won't end up betting. But iree with you.
Speaker 4: I mean this game should be like a thirty eight
Speaker 4: and a half thirty nine and a half over Runner,
Speaker 4: not forty three and a half. That's that's I don't
Speaker 4: I don't know where they get the points.
Speaker 1: But it's the potential, it's the it's it's the implication.
Speaker 4: It's the implication implication of the points that won't happen.
Speaker 1: It's the implication. All right, let's be won those Baltimore Ravens.
Speaker 4: Good God almighty, did I even do it right up?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 4: I didn't even do it right up? So this will
Speaker 4: be quick.
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: There was those Los Angeles Rams. I won't go even
Speaker 1: go over the priests numbers. They don't fucking matter. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because there is a Lamar, So no Lamart.
Speaker 4: There's like no fucking eighteen players on this team. What
Speaker 4: do you mean including Lamar?
Speaker 1: Yes, well Hamilton should be back if that does anything
Speaker 1: for you. But what doesn't do anything for you is
Speaker 1: exactly what I just I literally said this last week
Speaker 1: the podcast, And I've kicked myself on the ball so
Speaker 1: hard for not betting Houston when I said on the podcast,
Speaker 1: they've built this offense around one dude that is the
Speaker 1: most mobile, most athletic, most dynamic player we have ever
Speaker 1: seen in the NFL, and now you stick this fucking
Speaker 1: ginger pie's the ship Cooper Rush in there, and you
Speaker 1: expected to even come close to expectation. And I said
Speaker 1: that out loud, and yet I didn't bet Houston minus
Speaker 1: two because I'm retarded. So I'll just set it up
Speaker 1: again just like that and say, okay, will you trust
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams lay seven and a half points
Speaker 1: on the road versus give the get Hamilton back? Fantastic, fantastic,
Speaker 1: But there's still no war. We're stuck with this ginger
Speaker 1: piece of shit. Cooper Rush, Longhorn, what do you got?
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, no, right up on this one. It's
Speaker 4: just I don't even recognize as Baltimore team. I barely
Speaker 4: recognize them when they were all healthy. So it's it's
Speaker 4: take the Rams any which way you can get them.
Speaker 4: You don't tease down road favorites, but you know, if
Speaker 4: you're if you're into non wongs, then maybe maybe you
Speaker 4: do that here. Maybe do just a money line, parlay
Speaker 4: on on the the Rams and plug them into like
Speaker 4: a five team or whatever, because those is so many
Speaker 4: favorites this week. I don't think I have any shot
Speaker 4: of losing. This is one of them. It's just by
Speaker 4: the way, Baltimore's got a bye next week, so they're
Speaker 4: literally just just just get us to the by, let's
Speaker 4: get some players back and try to make a second
Speaker 4: half kind of run at the division, because that's their
Speaker 4: only their only shot now is not even the division
Speaker 4: that you know, even they can just scrap out a
Speaker 4: wild card. That's their only hope in the second half.
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's it's a it's all and and the
Speaker 4: chart and asserts me. The Rams are coming off a loss,
Speaker 4: a bad loss one and they should have they should
Speaker 4: have could have won. So they're coming in looking to
Speaker 4: get that redemption win and that that they.
Speaker 1: Should have could have won. My ass, they got the
Speaker 1: ass whipped, that's what they got.
Speaker 6: Yeah, when they fumbled on the one yard line with
Speaker 6: with no time left, they fumbled on the one with
Speaker 6: with almost no time left, they would have won the game.
Speaker 4: No, they had the ball on overtime, before overtime, they
Speaker 4: founded on the one on the one and would have
Speaker 4: won the game. So yeah, before it got to overtime.
Speaker 1: I mean San Francs still have plenty of time.
Speaker 4: No they didn't, but go ahead they did not?
Speaker 1: Yeah, they did, Okay, So on this one. You've got
Speaker 1: a home dog before by which is the very best
Speaker 1: fot fifty nine point six percent ats twenty eight nineteen
Speaker 1: and two average out of four point three. Now again
Speaker 1: for all those with their starring quarterbacks, none of those
Speaker 1: story course, I don't fucking know. It's is twenty eighteen.
Speaker 1: Who fucking knows. But here is where the first part
Speaker 1: of the numbers gig back the week comes in. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's coming. I promise this coun no fucking nerd with
Speaker 1: your nerd half there it is all right. So so
Speaker 1: if you are going on the ball and a home
Speaker 1: dog between seven and ten, I don't know all the
Speaker 1: records or whatever, but what I do know is on
Speaker 1: an Amazona seven point six, which does exactly whe we're
Speaker 1: sitting at. If you tease that up six points, you're
Speaker 1: five and one. That's eighty three point three percent we're
Speaker 1: doing with six and a half point teaser we're doing
Speaker 1: to the fourteen. We're gonna fucking make it happen. Boys goes.
Speaker 1: That's one half of the numbers. Get pick of the week,
Speaker 1: like Baltimore is too proud of a team to fucking
Speaker 1: get blown out two weeks in a row. They're fucking home.
Speaker 1: I don't fucking with Cooper Rush Rams fucking they like
Speaker 1: to play with their food and they suck on the road.
Speaker 1: There's there's gotta be some hard ball fucking you know,
Speaker 1: they've got to stand there ground right here. They win
Speaker 1: in this game, probably not to my buddy's point. If
Speaker 1: you still have the Rams alive and you're survivor contest,
Speaker 1: it's not that's not the pick this week. I'll give
Speaker 1: you the pick later this week. That should be your pick.
Speaker 1: But you know, if that's where you're at, if that's
Speaker 1: where you're down to, it's not a bad pick. However,
Speaker 1: Baltimore losing by more than fourteen I don't like that.
Speaker 1: I started fourteen and a half if you go six
Speaker 1: six and a half, So I like Baltimore plus the
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half here on the non long Teasa.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to those Tampa pub baks. Oh,
Speaker 1: this is one of the games of the fucking week. Hustle,
Speaker 1: San Francisco, pull it in nips all right. Preseason on
Speaker 1: this I had Tampa my or sorry plus one and
Speaker 1: Vegas Tampa minus one half, So Bays beat me on this.
Speaker 1: Tampa is sitting at plus three currently. I believe at
Speaker 1: this game so long, Homer, do you got on this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, on this one. You know, I'm gonna end up
Speaker 4: being on San Francisco plus the three. It just it
Speaker 4: feels like Tampa Bay is playing with fire too much.
Speaker 4: They live in these close games laying three again, you know,
Speaker 4: I mean, just how many times? How many times can
Speaker 4: you can you win one possession games coming down to
Speaker 4: the very end. And even if it comes down to
Speaker 4: the very end and Tampa Bay can still this game,
Speaker 4: it still has to be by three or more for
Speaker 4: you to cover. So you know, I know Mac Jones
Speaker 4: is starting at this point. I don't really particularly care,
Speaker 4: you know, whichever one is the healthiest, whichever one is
Speaker 4: the healthiest, just throw them out there. We don't know
Speaker 4: about the wide receivers playing yet, at least I haven't heard,
Speaker 4: hopefully Pierson.
Speaker 1: I don't thinking.
Speaker 4: Yeah. So look, I don't like the fact that San
Speaker 4: Francisco pulled the rabbit out of their hat last week
Speaker 4: and got that win. But Tama Baseman doing a whole lot.
Speaker 1: Of that completely dominated a game you gotta win.
Speaker 4: I don't know, Yeah, Tama Baseman doing that all year long,
Speaker 4: so I mean they're.
Speaker 1: Completely dominated games. They played rabbit hats, that's for sure.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So well, how do you completely dominate a game
Speaker 4: when you jump up fourteen?
Speaker 1: Yeah, you had forty minutes of possession. You had fucking
Speaker 1: uh you had Let's see what the rest of it is.
Speaker 1: I'm looking through your Yeah, more penalt up rams. That
Speaker 1: did have two turnovers, So.
Speaker 4: That's that's not that's those are random.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, the four nine has controlled that
Speaker 1: game the whole game in the rams, never chance, like
Speaker 1: I was on the rams. So I'm bemoaning my own
Speaker 1: loss or at your greatymnon loss. That's fun. I was
Speaker 1: on the rams. You were on the rams. But they
Speaker 1: didn't deserve They certainly didn't deserve to and they didn't.
Speaker 4: And it was under a minute. I looked it up.
Speaker 4: It was under a minute when he fumbled the ball,
Speaker 4: so technically still alive.
Speaker 1: But you know, they still had a chance to win
Speaker 1: it in overtime.
Speaker 4: I'm not I'm not talking about overtime. I someing before that.
Speaker 4: So that's that's fine. Yeah, in this game, it's just
Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't know that Tampa Bay hasn't
Speaker 4: proved that they can win with margin. I love them,
Speaker 4: They're they're a super Bowl pick to go to the
Speaker 4: super Bowl in the NFC. But you know, the the
Speaker 4: moxy of this San Francisco team, it's hard to ignore.
Speaker 4: And you're getting three points, you're getting some players back.
Speaker 4: We'll see how many, but they are getting some back,
Speaker 4: and I don't know, man, just this it feels this
Speaker 4: just feels too trappy, Like I mean, it feels like, hey,
Speaker 4: I mean, you're getting Tampa. They're they're four and one.
Speaker 4: They but they've they've you know, they they should be
Speaker 4: the better team at home. But I don't like it.
Speaker 4: I think the values on San fran here, give me
Speaker 4: the three. You know, is it juice either way? Is
Speaker 4: this number gonna move? Is this gonna be just locked
Speaker 4: in at three all the way to Sunday?
Speaker 1: No, it's going on to three. So you didn't get
Speaker 1: the three now?
Speaker 4: Yeah, So get the three now and and you know what,
Speaker 4: two and a half you can I would probably feel
Speaker 4: much better at two. There's a lot. There's a lot
Speaker 4: of games to land on two, a lot more land
Speaker 4: on two than than previously with with the with the
Speaker 4: two point con versions of the missed extra points and
Speaker 4: all the bullshit that happened. So you know, once again,
Speaker 4: if it gets down to two, you can talk me
Speaker 4: into some Tampa Bay. But about at three, I gotta
Speaker 4: go San fran.
Speaker 1: All right. So I know it's like we've been disagreeing
Speaker 1: a lot on this podcast, Espe. Actually we've been agreeing,
Speaker 1: but just aggressively. Uh powery grave for me on the
Speaker 1: snow called bucket, San Francisco beat San Francisco, Sy Francisco.
Speaker 1: I've got San Francisco winning this game twenty five to
Speaker 1: twenty two, so that will be had. No call on
Speaker 1: the overrunner. It's forty seven and a half. Now, the
Speaker 1: Special Team's great does have a great hunder. Sorry, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna stop mentioning that because I don't want to. I
Speaker 1: don't want to see miscontrued things. And this is my
Speaker 1: first week pulling this in. So overall, twenty five to
Speaker 1: twenty two, no call on the Overrunner. Forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half. Now, this is a very bad matchup for Baker.
Speaker 1: He loses two points through the BPG for our friends
Speaker 1: what's the go Right's name?
Speaker 4: Mac Jones, Mac Jones, he is half.
Speaker 1: A point, so not a great matchup with him. It's
Speaker 1: also not a great matchup for the running and they
Speaker 1: both lose half a point. So again that Bore leans
Speaker 1: to the hunder. But again I've got a granted as
Speaker 1: a no call. Here's my ride up on this. I
Speaker 1: did a little bit of deep devil this because I
Speaker 1: was very interested in this game, just because I do
Speaker 1: have Tampa Bay going to the NFC Championship as well.
Speaker 1: And I was like, okay, but I went back through
Speaker 1: my preseas righteous and I said, they have a good
Speaker 1: chance of being two and four right through the first
Speaker 1: six weeks and then going on a fucking run and
Speaker 1: winning this division, the shitty division, and ending up in
Speaker 1: the NFC Championshi games. It's like, okay, how are they
Speaker 1: so far above my expectations through the roughest part of
Speaker 1: their schedule. So I did a deep though. Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: is seventeenth in DVOA, they're twenty second and offensive success
Speaker 1: rate twenty second in defensive successory, So translation, they're a
Speaker 1: slightly bloy average see by the advanced patricks. Now, they've
Speaker 1: gotten very lucky. They won a lot of games with
Speaker 1: the buzzer. Actually every game they won has been at
Speaker 1: the buzzer. But how long can that continue. San Fran
Speaker 1: on the COMPARI side, is fifth in offensive success rate
Speaker 1: even without their fucking quarterback for most of the season.
Speaker 1: Now they're twenty fourth and defensive success right, so that's
Speaker 1: not good fifteenth and DVA overall. So basically, overall, you
Speaker 1: got an above average team that has dealt with a
Speaker 1: significant amount of injuries themselves as well, just like has
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So but in fairness to both teams, they
Speaker 1: have played a very difficult schedule. Tampa Bay fifth hardest
Speaker 1: so far per DVA. San Francisco, who was supposed to
Speaker 1: have the easiest fucking schedule in history of the world,
Speaker 1: has had the seventh hardest so far through DVA. So
Speaker 1: all in all, we have a comparable schedule of opponents,
Speaker 1: and San Francisco is better in the analytics overall with
Speaker 1: two different fucking quarterbacks, and now we're getting three points
Speaker 1: like that means the line is off enough here to
Speaker 1: get us on San Fran. I expect this to be
Speaker 1: a good game, come down to the end, and maybe
Speaker 1: for once it doesn't work out for Baker and the boys.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Sam Fran. There's no other way I'm
Speaker 1: gonna play it. It's gonna be Sam fran or fucking
Speaker 1: nothing for me. I look, I fear for our Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay pick just because this team has not been very
Speaker 1: good so far. But again, they've played a very as
Speaker 1: we as we predicted in the preseason, they played a very,
Speaker 1: very tough schedule. What we didn't predict was they were
Speaker 1: gonna win every goddamn Quinn flip. So does that carry
Speaker 1: them through all the way to the end of the season,
Speaker 1: They obviously can. We've seen that many many times. We
Speaker 1: saw it with Minnesota last year they were fourteen whatever
Speaker 1: fucking three. They've been every fucking coin flip and then
Speaker 1: they get beat out as soon as they fucking face
Speaker 1: a real team. I don't think that happens with Baker,
Speaker 1: so I think we're still alive with our overall pick. However,
Speaker 1: we've gotten very fortunate.
Speaker 4: With They've dealt with massive venders in there four and one,
Speaker 4: like they're gonna get s fran So a San France.
Speaker 1: I know, and they've gotten very but they're not a
Speaker 1: good football team. They're not a good football.
Speaker 4: Team because they're not a good football team on paper
Speaker 4: or on on the metrics. But that's because of what
Speaker 4: they're dealing with but when it comes to winning the
Speaker 4: football game, they're still winning despite not be not yeah
Speaker 4: so so, Like I mean, remember.
Speaker 1: We're aggressively arguing at the same point.
Speaker 4: I know the same but the point of football is
Speaker 4: winning the game. And you cannot look good necessarily on
Speaker 4: paper at certain times and because you're dealing with injuries
Speaker 4: and but but.
Speaker 1: Eventually those metrics we've seen, they do catch up to you,
Speaker 1: and they like Preacher preach last year. I mean, I
Speaker 1: pretty appreciate preach every year when you get to the
Speaker 1: playoff time, these faux ass fucking playoff teams like they're
Speaker 1: not any good. They suck all year, they suck at
Speaker 1: all these measures. They're gonna fucking lose. Sure enough, they
Speaker 1: go and get their doors blown off. For now, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying this about Tampa Bay specifically, I'm just saying
Speaker 1: in general, yeah, but everybody.
Speaker 4: But that's like picking who you're gonna pick to win
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. This is just picking like are they
Speaker 4: going to be good the rest of the year? And
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't see how anybody could think they're
Speaker 4: not gonna be good the rest of the year, because
Speaker 4: they're gonna get healthier and they're already winning.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean they gotta continue, like they gotta
Speaker 1: get healthier or continue to get lucky. One of the two,
Speaker 1: like one of those two things has to fuck.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So but but but they if they want to be
Speaker 1: in a serious content, if they want to get to
Speaker 1: where you and I both judge them to be, they've
Speaker 1: got to get better because they're they're not a good
Speaker 1: football team right now, so they have to get better
Speaker 1: as they get healthier, or else they're wanted done in
Speaker 1: the playoffs.
Speaker 4: All right, all right, let's move on to.
Speaker 1: Believe, including me, he's saying that.
Speaker 4: He's saying he likes to Jacksonville Jaguars. You couldn't hear
Speaker 4: any of that because his microphone is can now, but
Speaker 4: he likes Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: Yeah no, none of you, none of you gave my
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jay Wards a chance, including myself. That's not that's
Speaker 1: not relevant right now. But you know what, they're awesome,
Speaker 1: So everybody can suck it, including me. But right now
Speaker 1: they're hosting those Seattle's Theehawks. Okay, on this long run,
Speaker 1: I had Seattle minus one. Vegas had Seattle plus one
Speaker 1: and a half. So this game world opener was Seattle
Speaker 1: minus one. It is now Jacksonville minus one half. So
Speaker 1: Vegas beat me from the world opener to the fucking
Speaker 1: actual marketplace. What are you on this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah? On this one? So always has been a major
Speaker 4: upgrade with Jacksonville from from what we've seen this year.
Speaker 4: You just can't ignore what's happened. And I've talked about
Speaker 4: for at least one podcast now that I don't think
Speaker 4: we've seen the ceiling for this Jacksonville Jaguars team is
Speaker 4: the root just because t l is is and the receivers,
Speaker 4: they're not playing as good as at least most people
Speaker 4: think that they will. We've seen Brian Thomas be much better.
Speaker 4: We've even we've even seen Trevor Lawrence be much better
Speaker 4: than he is right now. As far as Travis Hunter goes, and.
Speaker 1: Sir, did you see the double fall down? Like what
Speaker 1: better play? What do you want to do? He failed
Speaker 1: down twice and scored the touchdown? Like I mean you know,
Speaker 1: I mean he literally gave them every chance in the world.
Speaker 1: Is like, can you stab me? No? We fall out again?
Speaker 1: He's still something No, Oh, well, I guess I gonna
Speaker 1: score Like he's literally like he's just toying with people.
Speaker 1: He's toying with people.
Speaker 4: He's uh, he's not way no, he's not.
Speaker 1: Bullelong worn shout out to my bollylong worn. Fucking if you,
Speaker 1: If you boys and girls are not watching the Sunday.
Speaker 4: Morning Sunday Morning Parlor Parlay.
Speaker 1: You fucking need to be because this dude he put
Speaker 1: out the Redskins and the Jaguars with that paid six
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: To one, five and a half to one, five and
Speaker 4: a half to one. Money line parlay is.
Speaker 1: Free motherfucking money on YouTube. He didn't charge you. He
Speaker 1: didn't say, hey, signer for my fucking premium picks now.
Speaker 1: He gave it out for fucking free, five and a
Speaker 1: half to one on your fucking money. So shame on
Speaker 1: you if you're not watching, Shame on you if you're
Speaker 1: not listening.
Speaker 4: I just thought about it flash forward. I don't know
Speaker 4: how it's gonna be tough finding some dogs this week,
Speaker 4: but I'll i'll, I'll throw something out and maybe half
Speaker 4: Union or something. I don't because I don't like this
Speaker 4: week for the dogs. But with that said, Jacksonville, I'm
Speaker 4: reluctantly going back to them, and I only say reluctantly
Speaker 4: because I have priors on Seattle that I like them
Speaker 4: so much. But but much like some of these other teams,
Speaker 4: this ain't. This ain't the Seattle team that was lining
Speaker 4: up to play football in Week one. They're dealing with
Speaker 4: massive injuries, specifically on the defensive side. We'll see if
Speaker 4: Julian Love can come back. We'll see if Devin Witherspoon
Speaker 4: can come back. I haven't heard for sure on that.
Speaker 4: I don't know which way that's leaning right now. But
Speaker 4: without those two their best players and their secondary, like
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm gonna have to I have to still
Speaker 4: lean on Jacksonville here. To just win a game at
Speaker 4: home feels so wrong. I don't even like that I'm
Speaker 4: saying it. But I like Seattle going across the country
Speaker 4: Jackson I mean, jackson Will coming off there like that,
Speaker 4: a primetime win like that, that is so like, give
Speaker 4: me the other team. But I just and maybe I'll
Speaker 4: regret this when we do the money recap. That's probably
Speaker 4: probably what I'll be saying, because like, why do I
Speaker 4: like Jacksonville here? Like this should be a spot for Seattle,
Speaker 4: but I just don't. I just don't trust that defense
Speaker 4: until they get healthy and their running game of defense
Speaker 4: is the glue to what's gonna make this Seattle team go.
Speaker 4: So I don't know, I just had to pick them,
Speaker 4: you know, I guess give me give me Jacksonville at home,
Speaker 4: because again, like I don't I seriously we have not
Speaker 4: seen like, oh my god, great game from t L,
Speaker 4: Like if that happens and he just starts lighting people
Speaker 4: up in you know, in his own way and this
Speaker 4: and with two amazing defensive players out in the secondary
Speaker 4: for Seattle, in theory, this should be a game where
Speaker 4: he can do it because they've got they you know,
Speaker 4: the running game is good with et N. They they
Speaker 4: got some good things going and the defense has just
Speaker 4: been awesome taking the ball away. So I don't know,
Speaker 4: maybe I'm stepping into it a little bit and I'm
Speaker 4: just not seeing it clearly on this game, but I'm
Speaker 4: kind of leaning to Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: I've never been well, I've been more frustrated, but I
Speaker 1: was very frustrated I against City three Javille, and I
Speaker 1: gave up the full handicap and PA said, oh, they
Speaker 1: suck against the run, but they're awesome against this one concept.
Speaker 1: And but ETN doesn't get to run. This one concept's
Speaker 1: supposed to runs Jacksonville's never won, blah blah, blah blah,
Speaker 1: And guess what happened. They didn't fucking get the one concept.
Speaker 1: They didn't fucking get the one fucking run. They never
Speaker 1: fucking got exactly what I said. I said, Mahomes should
Speaker 1: be mahomes. It should be good. The kan'ta says the
Speaker 1: fourteen to fucking nothing, and then all of a sudden
Speaker 1: everything went to fucking hell. And I don't know it's
Speaker 1: I was so fucking frustrated, but it's such a proper
Speaker 1: handicap to take a loss on. That's one. That's one
Speaker 1: of those. But it's one of those things that it's
Speaker 1: maddening but also keeps you doing this because it's so
Speaker 1: like this thing is so much more art than science.
Speaker 1: And even though you have all the science. I said,
Speaker 1: ETN is not getting the supposed to run. Didn't said
Speaker 1: mahomes is gonna be mahomes. He will us said the
Speaker 1: fuck It wasn't gonna be a great game for Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: It wasn't.
Speaker 1: And I still fucking lose, like I still fucking lose.
Speaker 1: Like it's so maddening and the most maddening thing to me, Longhorn,
Speaker 1: about this whole thing, as you and I had many
Speaker 1: discussions preseason on the podcast and off the podcast, because
Speaker 1: we were just so perplexed by all the sharp money
Speaker 1: that came in on fucking Jacksonville and their over wind
Speaker 1: told them that pushed up a full win from where
Speaker 1: it opened, and we were like, what the fun We've said,
Speaker 1: We said it on air, we said to each other,
Speaker 1: we said it in our sleep, probably like what the fuck?
Speaker 2: What are it?
Speaker 1: What is anybody looking at that makes you think that
Speaker 1: this Jacksonville team is gonna go win eight fucking games,
Speaker 1: which is where our predict him to win. But it
Speaker 1: only did that because that's what the marker was saying.
Speaker 1: But I didn't. But I didn't bet the under, which
Speaker 1: is what my number center should have fucking did, but
Speaker 1: I didn't do it. And now here we are, they're
Speaker 1: sitting here at what fucking for four and fucking.
Speaker 4: Four and one for one as also.
Speaker 1: Okay, So here's where I'm at with this game, though,
Speaker 1: Power Ragan Seattle bucket, Seattle B two, Seattle B two,
Speaker 1: Seattle forty six and a half is setting the under.
Speaker 1: I've got Seattle wins game twenty four to twenty one.
Speaker 1: That's the under. I won't mention the special teams again. Sorry,
Speaker 1: this is not gonna be a good game for Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 1: He struggles through the BBG for the system. This should
Speaker 1: be a very good game for Sammy d gains a point.
Speaker 1: Both running games s great out flat here. So basically,
Speaker 1: if you can stroll the running game for Jacksonville, you
Speaker 1: should win. I said that last week. Now it didn't
Speaker 1: work out for me obviously, However, I think the love
Speaker 1: like the look aheadline on this before Jacksonville beat Kansas
Speaker 1: City was Seattle minus one and a half, which is
Speaker 1: exactly what I had preseason. It literally flips on that
Speaker 1: win to Jacksonville minus one half. Now, can you tell
Speaker 1: me that that win was worth three points in the market.
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't think so. I think
Speaker 1: Seattle's aside here. I think you're right that you're you're
Speaker 1: your spotty senses of stepping in it, right. I think
Speaker 1: it's Seattle's a sign. I think this is I think
Speaker 1: that Seattle goes and gets this win. Look, Jacksonville, Look,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is not this longhorn. You can correct me if
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. Yes, you we talked about this thing. You
Speaker 1: talked about the roster. It's trash and the only the
Speaker 1: only we said, the only saving grace could be is
Speaker 1: if this coach can make Trevor Lawrence look like fucking Baker.
Speaker 1: Has he made them look like Baker? No felled out
Speaker 1: twice to fucking running a touchdown?
Speaker 4: That's but that's why, that's why I don't know that
Speaker 4: I may. I mean, I think there could be better
Speaker 4: than what even Vegas thought they would be, because we
Speaker 4: all thought they were gonna be Like, No, they're better
Speaker 4: than what we thought would be. But Vegas had them
Speaker 4: a little bit better than what we thought. But the
Speaker 4: but the factor that I can guarantee you that Vegas
Speaker 4: was was counting on was Lawrence being being raised up
Speaker 4: to play to the level that he hasn't. That's my point.
Speaker 4: That's if it starts, if it happens, though, if it.
Speaker 1: Clicks in, isn't gonna happen versus the Seattle defense. I mean,
Speaker 1: my number is gonna have a bad game.
Speaker 4: Which Seattle defense the one that's good when they're healthy,
Speaker 4: or the one that gets let up on their mind?
Speaker 1: I mean my mind ratings are like they got priors
Speaker 1: in there, of course, but they also have week by
Speaker 1: week built into what they've been doing, and they still
Speaker 1: haven't greayed out not good versus even so, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I can't, I can't, I can't. Fucking I won't have it.
Speaker 4: I won't have any action on this game, So it's
Speaker 4: only I.
Speaker 1: Probably will I probably will have Seattle maybe on the
Speaker 1: money line. I just can't get I cannot get past
Speaker 1: my priors this much to think that I was laying
Speaker 1: one and a half and the look ahead was one
Speaker 1: and a half and now I'm fucking getting one and
Speaker 1: a half. Like we went three points. We went three
Speaker 1: points on one win, which Jacksonville very much got lucky
Speaker 1: to do. I mean, fucking Patrick Mahomess is a ninety
Speaker 1: nine yard pick six, Like, I mean, they got so fucking.
Speaker 4: Lucky to win that game and they leave the league
Speaker 4: in turnover. So yeah, there's definitely a lot of luck
Speaker 4: in that.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of luck. There's a lot of luck.
Speaker 1: So but but we've also seen that continue throughout an
Speaker 1: entire season, right and then we've seen it. Yeah, it
Speaker 1: won't miss to turn this year. Now next year, they're fucked,
Speaker 1: of course, and the pedicular theorem will say that they're
Speaker 1: definitely fucked next year. But will it turn this year,
Speaker 1: will turn this week? That's hard to predict. You can't say,
Speaker 1: But I mean handicapping wise numbers wise, there's no chance
Speaker 1: I cannot be on the seem there's no chance.
Speaker 4: All right, let's lost banks.
Speaker 1: Ranks hosting those ten seeds titles, all right? Preseason on
Speaker 1: this one, I had the Raiders minus four. Uh Vegas
Speaker 1: had a minus three. We're sitting at minus four, So
Speaker 1: I know that one. So that would say Longhorn, that
Speaker 1: these teams are exactly what I thought they would be
Speaker 1: the preseason. So what are you on this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, like I said last week, do you think I'm
Speaker 4: changing after a stupid, bullshit, worst fucking bad beat of
Speaker 4: all time? No, same thing with Tennessee. That coach sucks.
Speaker 4: He made a million mistakes in that game. I can't
Speaker 4: even believe that he celebrated that win like I'd have
Speaker 4: felt like such a fraud. But yeah, same thing. You
Speaker 4: can't bet on Tennessee. He is awful. This is the
Speaker 4: one of the biggest coaching mismatches. We talked about that
Speaker 4: earlier in the game earlier, this this on this slate.
Speaker 4: This is another one, and it's a really good coaching
Speaker 4: Pete Carroll that's desperate, desperate, desperate for a win. They're
Speaker 4: not as bad as their record. They're won in four.
Speaker 4: They're just not that bad. Ginos fucked them. He's fucked
Speaker 4: Pete Carroll, really really bad. But the whole team sucks
Speaker 4: for Tennessee like that. I shouldn't even say that because
Speaker 4: the rosters actually better than their outcome. But the but
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks are rookie, and the and the coach is incompetent.
Speaker 4: He's not bad, He's not just bad. He's incompetent. He
Speaker 4: should not be a head coach.
Speaker 1: I actually do have a clip of Geno Smith talking
Speaker 1: to I'm sorry, Peachure of talking to Geno Smith, uh
Speaker 1: after the last game.
Speaker 4: Hang, yes, I need bitch, I need for you to
Speaker 4: do your fucking job.
Speaker 1: That's exactly what he said, Jensen, do your fucking jump.
Speaker 4: Yeah. And if he does his job and just plays normal,
Speaker 4: just plays normal, they get the running and going, they're
Speaker 4: gonna win this game by fourteen points plus. I would
Speaker 4: even look into an ault line on this, like this
Speaker 4: is going to be this would be. This is gonna
Speaker 4: be an ass whipping, ass fucking whipping. I'm all over
Speaker 4: the Vegas Raiders here.
Speaker 1: I love it. Powering bass now calling the buckets, now
Speaker 1: calling me too, Tennessee D two. Uh so, forty one
Speaker 1: and a half to the under, I've got this. I
Speaker 1: got Las Vegas win. This is twenty four to sixteen.
Speaker 4: You said forty one to nothing. Is that what you said?
Speaker 1: Forty one and a half is the under?
Speaker 4: I think you said forty one to nothing Vegas. That's
Speaker 4: what I heard, twenty.
Speaker 1: Four to sixteen Vegas. That would cover and that would
Speaker 1: go under. I like Vegas, like the under. It's a
Speaker 1: flat matchup for both with both quarterbacks. But fucking cam
Speaker 1: Warre and Rays that's so fucking bad. It's a flat
Speaker 1: matchup for both running games. There is no really specific
Speaker 1: advengeance in this game. It's just one team that's better
Speaker 1: than the other, and they're better than four points. It's
Speaker 1: it's a market down grade in Vegas one percent and
Speaker 1: a little bit of marketing upgrade off Tennessee. Like you said,
Speaker 1: getting a fucking miracle win. That will like, we won't
Speaker 1: see a win like that again until at least this week.
Speaker 1: In this fucking rigged ass league until somebody else needs
Speaker 1: their fucking until Baltimore beats the Rams for everybody's fucking survivor,
Speaker 1: we won't see another brig Gas win like that. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's fucking Raiders. Another one here, guys, we wells Green
Speaker 1: Bay Packets all they're coming off the boy hosting those
Speaker 1: sen Sinnati Bengals. I will not go over the preseason
Speaker 1: lines here because that obviously doesn't matter, and we have
Speaker 1: a new quarterback. Boys and girls, it is Joe motherfucking Flacco.
Speaker 4: They're actually doing it.
Speaker 1: They're actually doing it. They traded for him, they're starting him.
Speaker 4: You're doing it.
Speaker 1: This is fourteen points to fourteen and a half points,
Speaker 1: fourteen points juice, let's call it fourteen point two five whatever.
Speaker 1: It's the Packers coming off the Bay versus Legles. We
Speaker 1: got a long one.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I'm not in the business of laying
Speaker 4: fourteen points, fourteen plus points whatever it's gonna be. But
Speaker 4: I mean, how do you what are we doing? We're Cincinnati?
Speaker 4: What you are the I mean, there's a lot bad
Speaker 4: I just I love them because they're just so easily
Speaker 4: predictable that they're just awful, like you are just an
Speaker 4: awful franchise. First of all, Joe Burrow held this team
Speaker 4: together because he can move, and he can create, and
Speaker 4: he can fix your shitty fucking techmobile built offense of
Speaker 4: just get all the best receivers and a good quarterback
Speaker 4: and who cares what else you have. Flaco's a statue
Speaker 4: that ain't gonna work here. It is not And Browning
Speaker 4: Brownie is not good either. He can also move around
Speaker 4: a little bit and create. He can at least move
Speaker 4: around and create. Flacco is going to and you're probably
Speaker 4: gonna see Browning by in this game. You're probably gonna
Speaker 4: see Brian. So maybe you get a backdoor cover because
Speaker 4: Brian's gonna come in and start slinging it and move
Speaker 4: around making play, gonna come in and when they're down
Speaker 4: thirty to three, Like this is just gonna be awful.
Speaker 4: I just I don't know what again? We got the
Speaker 4: we got the is this the yeah? The weird trade situation,
Speaker 4: not not the flack of one but the other one
Speaker 4: with with oh god, who's the am I getting mixed
Speaker 4: up on my trays here?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: They trade? Okay? Sorry, So this one is just the
Speaker 4: flak of one. But regardless, if this is a mess
Speaker 4: green Bay coming off a bye, didn't they lose? Did
Speaker 4: they lose the last game they played?
Speaker 1: Lost?
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, so, so I mean, just oh sorry, they
Speaker 4: kissed their sister and got a tie on that one
Speaker 4: and that and actually that's that's so they're on a
Speaker 4: loss tie trend. So they want to win. They have had,
Speaker 4: they have a celebrated winning three weeks, and they got
Speaker 4: this this chum coming into town. Like I mean, this
Speaker 4: is like Penry ears back. Go get this forty year
Speaker 4: old statue that won't move of good luck, good luck Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: But I will say this rare opportunity that a quarterback
Speaker 4: gets to play the same team twice in the first
Speaker 4: six weeks. Flaco played this team earlier for Cleveland, now
Speaker 4: he plays them again. I'm here with Cincinnati, so it's
Speaker 4: we're we're in We're in upside down world here in
Speaker 4: the NFL in Week six.
Speaker 1: I guess, all right, so this is the second half
Speaker 1: of the dud. No long fucking whatever the nerd wow.
Speaker 5: Sign Nerd, get out go. I ain't got time to
Speaker 5: be distracted by your worthless chime man is gone, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So home favorites coming off the bar since twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen twenty nine forty two and three ats minus one
Speaker 1: point community communitatily forty percent of the line of six
Speaker 1: and a half. I did pull the numbers. If you
Speaker 1: were favorite of fourteen or I think it was ten
Speaker 1: to fourteen whatever, the teasers on that were at eighty
Speaker 1: seven percent, So we got eighty seve percent plus eighty
Speaker 1: three percent. All that abeles out to like sixty nine
Speaker 1: percent fucking winning. That is gonna close out on a
Speaker 1: six and a half point fortune and a half to
Speaker 1: twenty one on the Bengals. So we got the Raider
Speaker 1: or the Ravens plus fourteen since he fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half since he plus twenty one, and that is gonna
Speaker 1: include our do No Wong teaser the week again, the
Speaker 1: do Wongs teasers. You know, you gotta win, like you know,
Speaker 1: fifty six percent even win, I'm giving you at sixty
Speaker 1: eight percent, sixty nine percent. Guaranteed money, baby, just guarantee money.
Speaker 1: Just do it all right, Moving on to those new
Speaker 1: all in saintsan, I am very interested to see Lorn's
Speaker 1: handicap on this versus those New England Patriots. All right, preseason.
Speaker 1: On this I had New England minus one. Vegas had
Speaker 1: New England minus three. It is sitting at let's see
Speaker 1: this fucking game, mate, Sorry for freshman screen. Here in
Speaker 1: New Orleans, we're sitting at three and a half. So
Speaker 1: Vegas vive me on this one. I was a little
Speaker 1: bit down to the Patriots, no doubts. It is juice
Speaker 1: at three and a half, though, So let's go it
Speaker 1: three point two five long WM, what do you on
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm definitely definitely on New Orleans in this game. Well,
Speaker 4: at least I put it out to clients. I'll go
Speaker 4: ahead and announce that I put this on the clients
Speaker 4: because the line is move is down to three? Was
Speaker 4: it three and a half?
Speaker 1: Still playing three half?
Speaker 4: Yeah, so grab grab me if you can. People want look,
Speaker 4: it's it's the age old story. And I know New
Speaker 4: Orleans is coming off a win two, so you can
Speaker 4: use that against me. But they know they're not they
Speaker 4: know they're not a good or great team. They know
Speaker 4: they're not really going anywhere this year. So getting a
Speaker 4: win it's, you know whatever, it's not gonna make or
Speaker 4: break their years very much, not very much needs a butt.
Speaker 4: Here's the deal. New England has aspirations they were preseason
Speaker 4: darlings to kind of make that run to the playoffs. Yeah,
Speaker 4: and they're looking like they might make it. But it's
Speaker 4: all they gotta do is go to New Orkans. All
Speaker 4: they gotta do is go to New Orleans and win
Speaker 4: a game against the shitty New Orleans Saints that I
Speaker 4: was gonna put up a fight like they do against everybody.
Speaker 4: So at three and a half, I like them. Like
Speaker 4: I said, New England coming off that that primetime win
Speaker 4: against their rival Buffalo is a perfect letdown spar for
Speaker 4: them and the New Orleans offensive line. It doesn't look
Speaker 4: as good as I was hoping. But I will say this,
Speaker 4: it's trending up. For the numbers they had at the
Speaker 4: beginning of the year on p f F rankings horrible, horrible, horrible,
Speaker 4: it's subtly getting better actually to where three or four
Speaker 4: of them are in kind of like that that mid
Speaker 4: range of acceptable starter level, way better than what they
Speaker 4: were previously this year, and certainly what they're better than
Speaker 4: what they were last year. So and then, and the
Speaker 4: defense for New Ons is looking really good, you know,
Speaker 4: relatively good as they can look with with a team
Speaker 4: that's won one game so far. So I just like
Speaker 4: the lead. I just like the leadown spot. You know,
Speaker 4: Drake May Drake May is is he's played his ass
Speaker 4: off this year, but this is this is a road game, and.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to tell you that it was better than
Speaker 1: what said last.
Speaker 4: Year Drake May. Yeah, yeah, I liked him too coming
Speaker 4: out before. I was like, no, well we said the
Speaker 4: same thing that he was, that he showed lot of
Speaker 4: moxy and and and won some games, and that he
Speaker 4: looked better than he should. So it's but I don't know,
Speaker 4: it's this is a neurorons spot to me. I mean,
Speaker 4: they could get their doors blown sure, and if they do,
Speaker 4: then then New Orleans and then New England's definitely on
Speaker 4: their way to blow past that eight and a half.
Speaker 4: They just are like, if they come out here and
Speaker 4: just blow the doors off off a bad team on
Speaker 4: the road, then they're actually really good. Not really good,
Speaker 4: They're they're a good team.
Speaker 1: This game predicalar to win. And I still protected under
Speaker 1: eight and half.
Speaker 4: Like, okay, I said, I said blow their doors off.
Speaker 4: Well I bet you didn't have them foreign too. If
Speaker 4: you were picking the under eight and half Buffalo exactly.
Speaker 4: So like a good team off a great win like
Speaker 4: that against Buffalo Drags ass next week that they played
Speaker 4: down and and so we'll see, we'll see kind of
Speaker 4: And I'm I'm good team, so that's what I'm saying. Yeah,
Speaker 4: so we agree. I think the Saints are going to
Speaker 4: be live dogs here and and and one to three
Speaker 4: and a half. And and I wouldn't break my heart
Speaker 4: if the Saints win because because the under, the under
Speaker 4: five and a half of the Saints, I think is
Speaker 4: still looking really solid. Yeah, so so we I mean, yeah,
Speaker 4: we could. We could take a Saints win here for sure.
Speaker 1: We need a Saints win for sure. All right, Now,
Speaker 1: the powery is not New England here, like I said,
Speaker 1: because I had this about two points different. But the
Speaker 1: buckets New England B two New England or sorry buckets
Speaker 1: New Orleans B two New Orleans D two New Orleans.
Speaker 1: The BBG has New Orleans winning this game, winning this
Speaker 1: game twenty four to twenty two, which would be no
Speaker 1: coal on the over runner because it's forty five and
Speaker 1: a half, so it's right on the front on the number. Now,
Speaker 1: I do expect both quarterbacks to play decently here. They
Speaker 1: both gain half a point of the BBG. The problem
Speaker 1: here's what bothers me though, as the New Orleans loses
Speaker 1: half a point of the BBG and New England gains
Speaker 1: a point the BBG on the running game, I don't
Speaker 1: like that. Now. I'll say this with I'll just put
Speaker 1: this in. I don't want to put this in with
Speaker 1: the owner, but for the special teams part of it,
Speaker 1: it does have New England winning twenty three to twenty.
Speaker 1: So with three and a half, we're still good with
Speaker 1: New Orleans. The New Orleans has been horrific, fucking horrific
Speaker 1: with their special teams, and New England's been pretty solid.
Speaker 1: But either way, I like New Orleans to cover this game.
Speaker 1: If the buckets say the same, I will be on
Speaker 1: the Saints. I will be with you one. I would
Speaker 1: not bet New England. I'm not laying three and a
Speaker 1: half fucking points with Drake May on the fucking road
Speaker 1: against fucking error and go fuck yourself. I'm not doing it.
Speaker 1: So and I know the saying. I just fucking said
Speaker 1: the Saints could literally go oh to seventeen and they
Speaker 1: literally put them so now they're not gonna obviously, because
Speaker 1: they won a game. But there's nothing say that they
Speaker 1: couldn't have and there's nothing say that they can't beat
Speaker 1: the fucking Patriots, who this is not a win that
Speaker 1: I had the Patriots fucking having. So it was this
Speaker 1: is one of those fifty bitty coin flip games where
Speaker 1: you have to split the binomial and give them both
Speaker 1: fifty percent and then projected out from there. And that's
Speaker 1: literally what I did on both these teams. Now, the
Speaker 1: Buffalo fucking win for Nework. For the Buffalo, the win
Speaker 1: against Buffalo and Buffalo is the only thing fucking mean
Speaker 1: right now on our New England under because that is
Speaker 1: one not a game that I did not project them
Speaker 1: to win. Everything else that they've done this season, we're
Speaker 1: coin flipment. I had them losing to Las Vegas Week one.
Speaker 1: I bet that they did blah blah blah. So we're
Speaker 1: fine except that game. So now I need this game
Speaker 1: to go to New Orleans to get us back on
Speaker 1: the schedule.
Speaker 4: That's all they got. I don't know if you've seen
Speaker 4: their stretch of games, it's like all the worst teams
Speaker 4: in NFL, starting with New Orleans. It's that they had.
Speaker 4: They're gonna have to They're gonna have to drop one
Speaker 4: of these games. They should, They're supposed to win, for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like them to drop this game in
Speaker 1: New Orleans. Like you said, the only reason.
Speaker 4: I didn't do it, the only reason I didn't do
Speaker 4: a big Day Peg or danger Zone is simply because
Speaker 4: New Orleans was coming off that win. I mean, like,
Speaker 4: let's not get crazy. They are a bad team. They're
Speaker 4: gonna go on a winning streak, got it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, They're one of the worst season that it felt
Speaker 1: for sure.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: At the same time, New England was not a great
Speaker 1: team and they did just have the win of the season.
Speaker 4: I know that was that was that was the tug
Speaker 4: of war I was having. So I just, I just
Speaker 4: I don't feel great about.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm like, oh, fucking give me three units. No,
Speaker 1: but like, yeah, there's no there's no other way about this.
Speaker 1: When New Orleans supposed to three and a half.
Speaker 4: I'm with you, all right, all right, let's move on
Speaker 4: to the game of.
Speaker 1: The fucking weekend. I usually tease this and I'm usually
Speaker 1: just fucking with you, but I'm serious. I'm serious this time.
Speaker 1: It's those Cans, the City Chiefs hosting those Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1: Now on this one in the preseason, I had to
Speaker 1: go back and look at this. I had Kansas City
Speaker 1: Mona su Vegas at Kansasity minus three. We're sitting at
Speaker 1: Live now, I think it uh two, So you know
Speaker 1: above us a little bit high on that, I think right.
Speaker 1: Uh no, I'm sorry, I was fat on in Vegas
Speaker 1: a little bit high on this one. So this is
Speaker 1: exactly where I had it Longhorn going into the preseason,
Speaker 1: which means the marketplace now agrees that I was right
Speaker 1: five weeks later. So what do you got?
Speaker 4: Yeah, which is weird because Detroit's four and one in
Speaker 4: Kansas City's two and three. This is the trappiest of trap.
Speaker 4: Doesn't smell right, doesn't look right? Why is this? Why
Speaker 4: is Why is Kansas City favor? Why? And why is
Speaker 4: it favored by two points? Or whatever's lunch in and that?
Speaker 4: Like why that makes no sense. I'm not taking the bait.
Speaker 4: Give me mahomes, give me like like they want you
Speaker 4: to take Detroit. And and we've talked about earlier, like
Speaker 4: Detroit is a cover machine. Vegas knows that literally, Vegas
Speaker 4: knows that Vegas pays out on Detroit.
Speaker 1: All that time, but Vegas added minus three and I
Speaker 1: had at minus two and now we're still at minus two.
Speaker 4: So like.
Speaker 1: Vegas has just adjusted to where my pre projections were
Speaker 1: the preseason.
Speaker 4: Preseason has nothing to do with what what the records
Speaker 4: are now and what the line should be now.
Speaker 1: I know, but that just goes to how accurate my
Speaker 1: who's the.
Speaker 4: Better team here based on what you've seen so far
Speaker 4: this year, not not preseason? Who's the better team clearly?
Speaker 4: Detroit Detroit clearly clearly. So it just so why why
Speaker 4: is this not pick them?
Speaker 1: Uh? Well, I'll get into that in a second.
Speaker 4: Okay, So basically my handicap is I'm not taking the bait.
Speaker 4: Uh And then you also have the Mahomes factor. Anytime
Speaker 4: he's a favorite under three or a dog, that's a
Speaker 4: money spot for him. Twenty nine to twelve. Ats just
Speaker 4: you know, I'm even scared. I mean, I'm going to
Speaker 4: take Detroit teased up just because it's the perfect spot
Speaker 4: and there's not a whole lot to really offer this week.
Speaker 4: But that's dude, this line scared of the shit of me. Like,
Speaker 4: I need some explanation on why this game isn't pick them.
Speaker 4: Maybe it ends up there and that's fine, and so
Speaker 4: maybe you can wait and if you say it's going
Speaker 4: then wait, don't take Kansas City last two. Wait till
Speaker 4: it gets down to one and a half one maybe,
Speaker 4: and we'll see where it lands at. But yeah, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna be on Kansas City here. I'm gonna be on Mahomes.
Speaker 4: They lost the game last week that we we all
Speaker 4: saw it as very fortunate. Glad I hit the money
Speaker 4: line parlay Kenessey should have won that game. So they
Speaker 4: needed They're desperate for a win, and you got Mahomes
Speaker 4: at home needing a win. I don't know. Give me
Speaker 4: Kansas City.
Speaker 1: On the lines, ninety money on the lines.
Speaker 4: Take take that, take that bait, and Vegas is like, yep,
Speaker 4: come and get it, Come and get it, come and
Speaker 4: get it. I'm not doing it, okay.
Speaker 1: So here's why I'm with us. Power Grant is only
Speaker 1: Detroit Buggets throwing Detroit V two. Detroit D two's local.
Speaker 1: I've got Detroit winning this game twenty twenty six to
Speaker 1: twenty three. That's under the fifty two. You know, anytime
Speaker 1: of these juggernunt offenses play each other, I'm very has
Speaker 1: that to trust my numbers on that because I know
Speaker 1: how these games go with these great quarterbacks that you
Speaker 1: know when you really need a score. Here's the thing
Speaker 1: that has me leaning with you though, with Kansas City,
Speaker 1: this is a good match for mames. I've said for
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row, my homes should be my homes.
Speaker 1: It's another good matchup for homesby homes. The plus one
Speaker 1: to the BVG Jared Goff's minus one the BPG uh
Speaker 1: Kansas City flat with a running game Detroit love is
Speaker 1: half a point the VPG to the running game. Now.
Speaker 1: The only reason why it's greating out for Detroit to
Speaker 1: win this game, it's simply because Detroit offense. I mean, dude,
Speaker 1: if you don't know their numbers right now, they are
Speaker 1: on pace to be the greatest offense that this league
Speaker 1: has ever seen through fucking five weeks like they are
Speaker 1: on pace to score more points to be the fucking
Speaker 1: highest score like they are.
Speaker 4: Schedule has been pretty weak though so far.
Speaker 1: I can pull that off. But they are so far
Speaker 1: they are on pace. I'll pull it up to be
Speaker 1: the greatest offense we've ever seen. So that's the reason
Speaker 1: why now it's easy to say that, yeah, it's pastion,
Speaker 1: mahomes whatever, blah blah blah. But there is something broken
Speaker 1: about like because that And I'm not saying I shouldn't
Speaker 1: covered or whatever. It's fine, but there is something that
Speaker 1: And we'll look at their schedule so far so Detroit
Speaker 1: has said the third easiest schedule, third easiest schedule in
Speaker 1: the entire league so far overall. So that's something to
Speaker 1: say too so and that so that means that maybe
Speaker 1: the buckets are more right then numbers. We'll see, But
Speaker 1: there is something about the Kansasity team this year. That
Speaker 1: Jacksonville game is what's giving me pause. That's not a
Speaker 1: game that they lose, not saying they can't lose that game,
Speaker 1: but in the in the manner that they're playing, they're
Speaker 1: up fourteen to nothing, they blow the lead. Sure we've
Speaker 1: seen Kansas City do that a million times blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: But they go score the should be gaming and touchdown. Right,
Speaker 1: it's a minute or whatever left. They're up by four,
Speaker 1: so the other team needs to score touchdown. They kick
Speaker 1: the ball out of bounds, which is an egregious error
Speaker 1: for a team, a championship team, championship coaching, championship kicker,
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, bah blah, and then they'd let that
Speaker 1: drive happen. They let the kid fall down twice and
Speaker 1: still score and beat them at home or sorry out
Speaker 1: they're on the road, but still score, fall down twice
Speaker 1: and still score and beat them. Those are not the
Speaker 1: games that we've seen Kansas City lose, right, that we
Speaker 1: see Kansas lose when they've getten, they just get beat.
Speaker 1: They get beat and you're gonna have them down about
Speaker 1: two scorers and all the referee bullshit and fuckery and
Speaker 1: blah blah blah blah blah. But we've all come know
Speaker 1: and love, all that goes out the window.
Speaker 4: I just think it's very I think it was just
Speaker 4: the they win those games ninety something percent of the time,
Speaker 4: and it was just this was the one that came
Speaker 4: up the other way.
Speaker 2: I know.
Speaker 1: But dude, to have that happen when they're already have
Speaker 1: a losing record, like if they were six and oh
Speaker 1: when that happened, or five and oh when that happened. Okay, whatever,
Speaker 1: they got unlucky the rest in bellbut they.
Speaker 4: Kind of got unlucky. They kind of got unlucky on
Speaker 4: that last drive by Jacksonville too. Like I mean, just
Speaker 4: it just it didn't start right like it like they
Speaker 4: burned like a minute and got like ten yards like Jackson.
Speaker 1: It didn't start right. But then Trevor Lawrence threw literally
Speaker 1: to the best throws ever seen ever. He through the
Speaker 1: dome over the top, and then he threw the bullet
Speaker 1: to the outside. Yeah, and that, Yes, I saw a
Speaker 1: great sweet about it. I was like we got the
Speaker 1: full Trevor Lawrence experiences. You saw him, dude throw a
Speaker 1: handful of piss rockets, have a handful of zero IQ plays.
Speaker 4: Right and then fall down and fall down twice and.
Speaker 1: Win the fight. Like is the full TREVORL. Lawrence experience.
Speaker 4: So doesn't that tell you that like this that one
Speaker 4: was just like setting the stars that you're not winning.
Speaker 1: It would have been. It would have been if they
Speaker 1: weren't already two and four or whatever.
Speaker 4: Two and three at the time and three of time.
Speaker 1: If they did not live in the record, it would
Speaker 1: have it would have been if they would have been,
Speaker 1: you know whatever.
Speaker 4: They have zero injuries right now, like like now the
Speaker 4: chiefs are that they were dealing with injury at the
Speaker 4: beginning of the year. Zero they don't, I mean they
Speaker 4: got Rashid Rice. Obviously he's not injured, so he won't
Speaker 4: be back on the next week.
Speaker 1: But like, and they're gonna be able to score the ball.
Speaker 1: Like I don't know, my numbers agree with you, the
Speaker 1: bug disagree with you. I can't say that I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna be with you on my bet. But it scares
Speaker 1: the ship out of me because oh no, sorry, my
Speaker 1: numbers are bugs. Forgets you. It does scary because in
Speaker 1: the homes. But again, there's something that it's almost like
Speaker 1: that fucking that's whatever that I remember watching the Yankees,
Speaker 1: like in the fucking late nineties orders two thousands, like
Speaker 1: you just knew something was gonna happen. The Yank's gonna win.
Speaker 1: It's almost like that Shineess gone off Kansas City after
Speaker 1: that ditical game, because after that game, I was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: if you can't win this game, if you can't win
Speaker 1: this game, I know everything happened. You threw the pick
Speaker 1: sacks of the fucking one yard of blah blah blah
Speaker 1: fucking blah.
Speaker 4: They kind of did. They kind of did what they
Speaker 4: always did. They drove down, they got to kill shot, they.
Speaker 1: Just but but then they lost and they don't ever
Speaker 1: lose that. I don't ever lose that game. And then
Speaker 1: and if you think Jery Golf is gonna fall down
Speaker 1: twice in the New yor one, he's not gonna do that.
Speaker 1: If he does, he hanging. No, yeah, he's not getting
Speaker 1: I'm running for touchdowns.
Speaker 4: And this is outside on grass, so that the greatest
Speaker 4: show on turf is probably not gonna be as last year.
Speaker 1: And beat them week one.
Speaker 4: If you remember, but that wasn't It wasn't a high
Speaker 4: scoring game.
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I've got it great to the under.
Speaker 1: I've got it twenty six, twenty three, So that's the
Speaker 1: underd of fifty two. I don't I don't expect to
Speaker 1: go over. I like the eer there more than anything,
Speaker 1: but I mean, I don't know. Well, it's it's gonna
Speaker 1: be it's gonna be great.
Speaker 4: That sounds right. Twenty six twenty three Kansas City. You
Speaker 4: get the teaser cover with Detroit Casey gets the win.
Speaker 4: That that sounds just about right.
Speaker 1: It does sound right. Goddamn. All right, let's move on
Speaker 1: to those hot Atlanta facts. Oh, it's the first of
Speaker 1: two f f and we have to have two Monday
Speaker 1: night fucking football games. Do we have enough ship to
Speaker 1: do Monday long morning. We don't have a recap show
Speaker 1: to do or anything else. Fuck it, Let's just have
Speaker 1: two goddamn games that probably everybody's got the fucking money on.
Speaker 1: As we're talking about this bullshit, it's those Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 1: hosting those Buffalo's. Go Buffalo. It's the Bills all right.
Speaker 1: Preseason on this one, I had Atlanta plus three. Vegas
Speaker 1: had Atlanta plus five and a half. Again, I've talked
Speaker 1: about this. I was hired on Lanta than Vegas was.
Speaker 1: It's now Buffalo minus three. No, they are back to
Speaker 1: four and a half. So we split the baby on
Speaker 1: that one. Let split the baby.
Speaker 4: I had four and a half, it's.
Speaker 1: Four and a half. So we split the baby on
Speaker 1: that one, which is fair enough. I was lowering Buffalo
Speaker 1: hiring Atlanta. So we're right in the middle of where
Speaker 1: I thought we should be. So we're going on this one.
Speaker 4: Well, So as far as the game goes, I don't know.
Speaker 4: I don't know when you want to play it, but
Speaker 4: I'm going to do a double danger Zone on Monday night.
Speaker 4: We're going Maverick and Goose on both these games. There
Speaker 4: you go. Yeah, So I just did at four and
Speaker 4: a half. You're you're just you're you're you're making me,
Speaker 4: You're fucking making me. And actually both these games are
Speaker 4: at four and a half. Is at least the last
Speaker 4: time I looked, I think they're both at four and
Speaker 4: a half. So again, double double danger zone on both
Speaker 4: dogs on Monday Night. Uh, just one on each just
Speaker 4: because I don't love this. I don't love this. I'm
Speaker 4: not going in. I'm not even going money line and
Speaker 4: I'm not going crazy with this because I think Buffalo
Speaker 4: coming off a loss, they're probably gonna win this game, probably,
Speaker 4: but it's dangerous. So now I know that at all
Speaker 4: they better. But that defense has not fucking looked good.
Speaker 4: And and I think ed Oliver's coming back this week
Speaker 4: and they have missed him in the middle. They're just
Speaker 4: not the same team without him in the middle of
Speaker 4: that of that defense, and that will help against this
Speaker 4: running game and Beijon and and everything that Atlanta's got going.
Speaker 4: But man, just I like I this Atlanta team. It
Speaker 4: when I watched them, I'm like, Okay, besides that Carolina though,
Speaker 4: like remember I said that Carolina game, throw that out.
Speaker 4: They lost thirty to nothing. I don't know how the
Speaker 4: fuck that even happened? Throw that out. Besides that, they
Speaker 4: have been they're a good looking team on offense and defense,
Speaker 4: and with the pass rush starting to come around a
Speaker 4: little bit, some of those young players for Atlanta starting
Speaker 4: to make starting to make their way. I just I
Speaker 4: just like this matchup for Atlanta and now Josh Josh
Speaker 4: has the thirty first ranked strength of schedule so far,
Speaker 4: and I don't actually I don't know if this is
Speaker 4: so far or if this takes into account the the
Speaker 4: whole season. So both eves can can tell me if
Speaker 4: it's if that's what they are so far, but they're not.
Speaker 4: They haven't played very many good teams and this is
Speaker 4: a good team on the road on Monday night. So
Speaker 4: give me Alanta, give me Buffalo is a win, but
Speaker 4: give me Atlanta to keep this close. And at four
Speaker 4: and a half, that's just you just too much, that's
Speaker 4: way too many points. So I'm on them now. As
Speaker 4: far as the injury factors go, Atlanta's coming off the buy.
Speaker 4: They're getting healthier, no significant injuries to to look at
Speaker 4: for them. And and on the Buffalo bill side, they've
Speaker 4: got a laundry list of players not out but dealing
Speaker 4: with a lot of a lot of questions, a lot
Speaker 4: of questionable, lot of a lot of their some of
Speaker 4: their best players at Oliver, like I said, he's probably
Speaker 4: gonna come back and play. So yeah, four and a half.
Speaker 4: They're they're making me take them both sieves. They are
Speaker 4: making me. And what I said when you're going is
Speaker 4: the but the strength of schedule. I'm looking at thirty
Speaker 4: first for Buffalo, So I don't know if that's all.
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's taking an account the whole
Speaker 4: season or just up to this point, but it was. Anyways,
Speaker 4: I'm on Atlanta, and so what do you got with
Speaker 4: the numbers? Say over there, let me check the stringing
Speaker 4: schedule real quick.
Speaker 1: See I got Buffalo the thirty seconds, so okay, So yeah,
Speaker 1: but we talked about the prison there. They had one
Speaker 1: of the easiest schedules going into leave this you know
Speaker 1: as well that this is gonna happen.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, oh my god. So yeah, Baltimore Jets, Miami
Speaker 4: and the Saints and then in New England last week.
Speaker 4: So like, yeah, so.
Speaker 1: Pow Ray's got Buffalo bucksay up, Buffalo eat Buffalo D
Speaker 1: two Atlanta. I've got the BBG has Atlanta winning this
Speaker 1: game twenty four to twenty two, which is well under
Speaker 1: the forty eight and a half. Now there's a reason
Speaker 1: for that. Pennix and Josh Allen both do not grade
Speaker 1: up well versus either one of these defenses, so I
Speaker 1: expect this to be a lower scoring game than the
Speaker 1: market does. However, Atlanta does grade out well on the
Speaker 1: running game, so it should be a good game for Jon.
Speaker 1: Buffalo grades up find their running game. So you're James Cook,
Speaker 1: you're Fantasy fans, you should be fine. There should be
Speaker 1: a good game for Vjon. Here there there's two conflicting
Speaker 1: trends and they're both coin flips really, so if you've
Speaker 1: got a home dog after the buye, it's the only
Speaker 1: good spot after the buye eighteen since twenty eighteen eighteen
Speaker 1: fifteen and one ATS is fifty four and a half percent. However,
Speaker 1: it's actually negative point zero one ATS and a line
Speaker 1: of four point nine. We're pretty close to that, and
Speaker 1: then Buffalo is going on the buy. So if you're
Speaker 1: before the buy and you're the way favorite fifty three
Speaker 1: and a half or twenty three and twenty, but at
Speaker 1: a negative zero point one also at a lot of
Speaker 1: three point nine. So basically both those trims cancel each
Speaker 1: other out. No big thing there. Look overall for me
Speaker 1: on this one, this is a game that Atlanta absolutely
Speaker 1: can hold together to keep close, possibly still a win.
Speaker 1: But if Buffalo is going to get to where they're going,
Speaker 1: they will win this game. That they win it by
Speaker 1: four and a half, I don't know, man, it was
Speaker 1: at three and a half earlier, but all the fun.
Speaker 1: Like literally, let me look back at the money real quick.
Speaker 1: See it's still coming in on Buffalo. They might have
Speaker 1: switch Atlanta at this point. Yeah, switch to Atlanta at
Speaker 1: this point. So they starting to come back in Atlanta
Speaker 1: at four and a half. So it's probably gonna keep
Speaker 1: me off of Buffalo overall. But I expect them to
Speaker 1: be a good game, and I expect either quarterback to
Speaker 1: really have a great game. John should do what he
Speaker 1: does and keep Atlanta in this one and be feisty.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't really care who wins at the end.
Speaker 1: I don't have an over under either one of these teams.
Speaker 4: But you know, we'll see what happens, all right.
Speaker 1: All right, moving on to the second of the Monday
Speaker 1: night football games. A little Washington Redskins hosting those Chicago
Speaker 1: bands that kid now preseason this, I had Washington minus three.
Speaker 1: Vegas had the minus four and a half. They beat
Speaker 1: me on this one. It's sitting at four and a half.
Speaker 1: So Longhan, what do you go on this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I said, danger Zone, I'm on the four
Speaker 4: and a half. I like Chicago here. They're they're they're
Speaker 4: on a two game winning streak and I don't know,
Speaker 4: I know, the buy you know, kind of puts a
Speaker 4: pause on that a little bit. But they're starting to
Speaker 4: show a little bit of that offense and at least
Speaker 4: Caleb looking like he has a clue at quarterback. And
Speaker 4: I'm not a big Kleb fan. That's been well documented,
Speaker 4: but I love the head coach. Unlike Aaron Gunn. People
Speaker 4: are talking, there's rumors it's I'm not, but I love
Speaker 4: the head coach. And whether you whoever you, whatever you
Speaker 4: do in your bedroom, I think this. I think this
Speaker 4: head coach is gonna get the best out of you,
Speaker 4: no matter what. So the the Washington defense, it's looks
Speaker 4: you know, it's had its moments, it's it's had its
Speaker 4: ups and downs. But I just think that Chicago is
Speaker 4: going to get their points here and you're giving me
Speaker 4: four and a half. It's the revenge factor from the
Speaker 4: just I mean just the brain dead moment from Chicago
Speaker 4: last year with the hell Mary we all saw, we
Speaker 4: all know, we all know it went on.
Speaker 1: I remember exactly literally where I was the moment.
Speaker 4: Yeah. So now now different head coach, different a lot
Speaker 4: of different new players. But you know, just I don't
Speaker 4: that's not even like a main factor like that. A
Speaker 4: lot of the law that's not evenna matter. But if
Speaker 4: it does come down to hell Mary, it probably won't
Speaker 4: be players celebrating before the you know, the like, oh
Speaker 4: they're running a play. I mean, let me get a
Speaker 4: right to the news, and so it's not gonna know that.
Speaker 4: But no, I just I just love the four and
Speaker 4: a half and both these Monday night games. I think
Speaker 4: I think that these the two dogs are very live.
Speaker 4: I think that either one or both could steal these
Speaker 4: Monday night games. And uh, I'm looking for them to
Speaker 4: at least keep it close. Let's at least get a
Speaker 4: couple of units on these danger zones at the plus
Speaker 4: four and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, so was gonna do the last one? I
Speaker 1: can't be with you on this one powering no call here,
Speaker 1: like I said, pretty close to what I had preseason
Speaker 1: bucket though, well, actually the Buggets are no cold because
Speaker 1: Chicago is now on the money plus two percent, So
Speaker 1: BT Washington D two Chicago. The total is fifty. I've
Speaker 1: got this grade at twenty eight to twenty two. Washington's
Speaker 1: right on the number at fifty. This is going to
Speaker 1: be This is going to be Jalen daniels best game
Speaker 1: in the season. It should not be. It should be
Speaker 1: an okay game for Sugar Bridges, not terrible. However, Washington
Speaker 1: is about to run a fucking rough shot, rough shot
Speaker 1: over this Chicago defense. They get a point and a
Speaker 1: half of the BBG on the running game. This is
Speaker 1: going to be just a demolition upfront for them running
Speaker 1: the ball and Dana Danields should have fairy much successfulver this.
Speaker 1: The only thing that could derail Washington winning this game
Speaker 1: will be turnovers, obviously, which you can't predict those. But yeah,
Speaker 1: Washington's gonna win this game. They're gonna win with margin
Speaker 1: longmar is gonna lose this danger zone. Uh and then
Speaker 1: after the buye away Dogs thirty four to thirty six
Speaker 1: and one forty eight point six percent, So you're not
Speaker 1: on the back.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's a bad one to be on right there.
Speaker 1: That's that's I mean, forty eight point says it's not
Speaker 1: fucking terrible, but it's just it's just a bad it's
Speaker 1: a bad matchup for Chicago, especially, like I said, Jenleen Daniels, Yes,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have a great game, but this running game
Speaker 1: versus the Chicago defense is going to be I mean,
Speaker 1: Bill or Bob or whatever the fuck his name is,
Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to fucking name and score. You
Speaker 1: got fucking fans, you've got fantasy on him. You should.
Speaker 1: If you don't, you should, fucking I mean, I know
Speaker 1: c K is gonna put out bets whatever he does
Speaker 1: his thing, but I'm sure he's gonna have his numbers
Speaker 1: crunched and he's gonna have him on over whatever the
Speaker 1: fuck is totally is because he's gonna he's gonna fucking
Speaker 1: murder literally fucking murder the Chicago defense. I don't expect
Speaker 1: this game to be particularly close. Maybe it gets close
Speaker 1: to the end or whatever, but yeah, Washington Mint four
Speaker 1: and a half. The only way I can play this
Speaker 1: one right, all right? Was the girls. That was all
Speaker 1: them wins coming in the It's not gonna be all
Speaker 1: right along one side of those free I said three
Speaker 1: picks of the week later on.
Speaker 4: All right, So if you thought I was kidding about
Speaker 4: fading Tennessee the rest of the year, you're wrong, because
Speaker 4: I'm I'm going against Tennessee and every free pick here.
Speaker 4: What do I got here? Is it for? What are
Speaker 4: we looking at? Yep, Vegas minus four NFL free pick
Speaker 4: of the week on the podcast.
Speaker 1: Obsessments. I actually like that a lot. All right, Let's
Speaker 1: go with those ut s A, those road Runners, baby,
Speaker 1: maybe for your fucking college free pick of minus eleven. Look,
Speaker 1: I know Rises improved and I U T s A.
Speaker 1: They have not been what they're supposed to be so
Speaker 1: far this year. How about this is like the burn
Speaker 1: the boats moment for them. They gotta win this game.
Speaker 1: They gotta fucking win this game of margins. So let's
Speaker 1: go with the fucking road Runners at home to cover
Speaker 1: the fucking eleven and get us that fucking victory. Baby,
Speaker 1: tell me that fabulous.
Speaker 4: Patreon one more time, all right, be sure to go
Speaker 4: with that Patreon p patreon dot com, slash bet underscore
Speaker 4: fgh you can sign up for college picks or a
Speaker 4: NFL with Bo Stevis. I've got some NFL picks. They're
Speaker 4: all available Premium picks up there right now. Our Monday
Speaker 4: recap podcast will be out. We'll talk about all the wins,
Speaker 4: all the losses, all the kick in the ball. So people,
Speaker 4: stop going away your hard money on a guessing game.
Speaker 4: Let the pros do the heavy listing. So sign up,
Speaker 4: tell a friend and joining in the funnel watching football,
Speaker 4: drinking beer and Neva. Pay a book again.
Speaker 1: Come on, people, never say a book again. Steven Tynan
Speaker 1: take us