Speaker 1: Geopolitics Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Coule. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. Straight of Hormo's reducs, how Iran regains leverage.
Speaker 1: Iran has closed the Strait of har Moves. That's where
Speaker 1: we are this morning. After seven consecutive nights of US
Speaker 1: strikes and more than fifty killed, Tehran has formally suspended
Speaker 1: all commitments under the monthfold sees far. The diplomatic framework
Speaker 1: is gone. The conflict is now in an open ended
Speaker 1: phase with no agreed mechanism to stop it. The signal
Speaker 1: here is the Strait. In the last twenty four hours,
Speaker 1: only six vessels transited the waterway. Under normal conditions, roughly
Speaker 1: twenty percent of global oil passes through it daily. That
Speaker 1: gap tells you how much leverage Iran has just reclaimed.
Speaker 1: Military pressure didn't break Iranian resolve. It handed Tehran the
Speaker 1: one card that hurts everyone, a choke on global energy supply.
Speaker 1: The targeting logic on both sides has shifted, and that
Speaker 1: matters more than people are Acknowledging. US strikes hit Iranian
Speaker 1: water desalination, Iran responded by hitting Kuwaiti power and desalination facilities.
Speaker 1: When you target water infrastructure in a desert region. You're
Speaker 1: not signaling restraint, You're signaling a willingness to impose civilian
Speaker 1: costs at scale. More than twenty million people across the
Speaker 1: Gulf depend on desalination. That's no longer background context. It's
Speaker 1: becoming the front line. Karate, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman
Speaker 1: have all reported intercepting Uranian drones and missiles. This is
Speaker 1: the important distinction. What started as a US Iran confrontation
Speaker 1: is now producing coordinated Iranian retaliation against a half dozen
Speaker 1: Gulf states. The US has responded by bolstering its refueling
Speaker 1: aircraft fleet in Israel, which signals it intends to sustain
Speaker 1: operational tempo, but Golf allies absorbing repeated strikes, effacing a
Speaker 1: question Washington doesn't have to answer directly, how long can
Speaker 1: they hold before seeking a different arrangement. The ceasefire architecture
Speaker 1: didn't collapse because of bad faith alone. It collapsed because
Speaker 1: it had no enforcement mechanism. A memorandum broken through, Cutter
Speaker 1: and Pakistan reached under military pressure with nothing binding either
Speaker 1: side operationally. Once strikes resumed, the framework had no weight
Speaker 1: to bear. That's a structural failure, not a diplomatic surprise.
Speaker 1: The senior Iranian military adviser has wanndered that a full
Speaker 1: scale offensive is possible if US strikes continued through the weekend.
Speaker 1: The IRGC has vowed reciprocal responses. The honest treed on
Speaker 1: that threat is uncertain. Seven knights of strikes haven't stopped
Speaker 1: the campaign, so the warning may be rhetorical. But Iran
Speaker 1: has now demonstrated it can threatn regional water supply, close
Speaker 1: the world's most critical oil choke point, and reach US
Speaker 1: regional partners simultaneously. The escalation tour kit is real, even
Speaker 1: if the timeline is unclear. Tahan also says it has
Speaker 1: no plans for negotiations. Whether that's a tactical pause or
Speaker 1: a genuine end to the diplomatic channel isn't confirmed yet.
Speaker 1: Here's the thing separately and worth tracking carefully. The US
Speaker 1: has allowed its National Emergency declaration over Hong Kong to lapse.
Speaker 1: Forty eight sanctioned individuals were delisted, but Executive Order thirteen
Speaker 1: nine three six, which revoked Hong Kong's Special trade status,
Speaker 1: remains in force. Beijing his frame this as Washington honoring
Speaker 1: commitments made during biolactual trade talks. In Madrid. Washington State
Speaker 1: Department says Hong Kong still lacks sufficient autonomy for differential
Speaker 1: treatment under US law. Those two readings of the same
Speaker 1: action are not compatible. The interpretive gap between them isn't
Speaker 1: a communications problem. It's a risk factor for the broader
Speaker 1: US China trade negotiation. Two things to watch closely from here. First,
Speaker 1: hor Moo's transit volume in the next forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: If it drops further, energy markets will move and regional
Speaker 1: pressure on Washington intensifies. Second, the Hong Kong interpretation gap.
Speaker 1: If Beijing proceeds on the assumption that sanctions relief signals
Speaker 1: broader trade concessions and Washington corrects that assumption publicly, you
Speaker 1: get a reset in the wrong direction at a sensitive moment.
Speaker 1: Both of these stories, the hor Moose closure and the
Speaker 1: Hong Kong delisting are ultimately about the same underlying dynamic.
Speaker 1: What happens when two sides read the same facts and
Speaker 1: draw opposite conclusions. That's where miscalculation lives. Thanks for listening.
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