WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.600 --> 00:00:13.679 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of AI on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:13.720 --> 00:00:18.719 I'm here with Mick mulroy. I'm dimitrikon takos lot cooking 3 00:00:18.800 --> 00:00:23.839 as usual. First on the list is, uh, the Ukraine 4 00:00:23.920 --> 00:00:27.440 Russia talks in Istanbul that took place that just ended 5 00:00:27.480 --> 00:00:31.199 about a day ago. Uh, with no real I mean 6 00:00:31.280 --> 00:00:35.039 some movement, but not really much. They've agreed to swap 7 00:00:35.039 --> 00:00:39.920 a thousand POW's one thousand for one thousand, first talk 8 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:42.719 since twenty twenty two since the war started between actually 9 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:47.079 Ukraine and Russia together in the room, I mean Putin 10 00:00:47.159 --> 00:00:49.719 was nowhere to be found, which is not really surprising. 11 00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:55.520 I'm sorry, I was reading that like Moscow kind of 12 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:57.840 sees it as a win. I guess, like doing nothing 13 00:00:57.960 --> 00:01:03.079 is a win for them, and like the Ukrainians are 14 00:01:03.119 --> 00:01:05.680 not exactly happy with down. There was some talks that 15 00:01:05.719 --> 00:01:09.000 there was like ultimatums talked about, and how Russia demanded 16 00:01:09.000 --> 00:01:13.719 that Ukraine remove their troops from Ukrainian territory, which is 17 00:01:13.799 --> 00:01:19.879 fucking hilarious. I mean, anyway you slice it, like if 18 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:22.560 you're not like part of the FSB or GRU like, 19 00:01:22.599 --> 00:01:25.079 I don't know how you could spin this at all, right, 20 00:01:25.159 --> 00:01:27.120 like if you if you're on the payroll, I don't 21 00:01:27.120 --> 00:01:31.799 know how you spin this. And Russia's Savor Medvedev tweeted 22 00:01:31.840 --> 00:01:35.159 recently like literally probably thirty minutes an hour ago, like 23 00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:38.640 threats and stuff like that, like he's another lunatic. 24 00:01:41.239 --> 00:01:41.680 Yeah. 25 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:43.799 One other thing I read too that the Pope, the 26 00:01:43.840 --> 00:01:47.280 new Pope all for the Vatican has like a possibility 27 00:01:47.400 --> 00:01:50.000 for a place to do negotiations and stuff like that. 28 00:01:50.159 --> 00:01:54.239 Zelenski did call and they did agree to talk more, 29 00:01:54.439 --> 00:01:57.079 but like I feel like that's probably Russia just trying 30 00:01:57.120 --> 00:01:57.920 to stall. 31 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:01.000 Mick. What what do you got with this? 32 00:02:02.599 --> 00:02:04.959 Well, I think do you summed it up there pretty well? 33 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:09.039 The the UH summit and instabul was called for, by 34 00:02:09.080 --> 00:02:13.479 the way, by Putin. It's a president Putin called the summit. 35 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:18.599 Then refuse to show up and face President Zelenski face 36 00:02:18.639 --> 00:02:23.520 to face right shows you, you know, his level of 37 00:02:24.520 --> 00:02:29.240 a confidence in his position and certainly looking across the 38 00:02:29.240 --> 00:02:32.520 aisle from somebody who I think is far superior to 39 00:02:32.560 --> 00:02:37.000 him as a leader. And then they basically did nothing right. 40 00:02:37.080 --> 00:02:39.479 I mean, this prisoner swaps good obviously for the prisoners 41 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:41.840 who getting released, and you know the fact that it 42 00:02:41.879 --> 00:02:44.240 was if you want to look at, you know, class 43 00:02:44.240 --> 00:02:47.639 off whole kind of thing at all. A thousand prisoners 44 00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:50.280 means a lot more to Ukraine than it does to Russia. Yes, 45 00:02:50.319 --> 00:02:53.120 so generally doesn't doesn't care, doesn't give a damn about 46 00:02:53.120 --> 00:02:56.879 their troops. Chances are these guys will get you know, 47 00:02:57.000 --> 00:02:59.919 patched up, fixed up, fueled up, and be back on 48 00:03:00.039 --> 00:03:05.039 the battlefield for the Ukrainian side. So I think that's good. 49 00:03:05.159 --> 00:03:08.599 But it's also clear that our Russia is not interested 50 00:03:08.759 --> 00:03:14.680 at all in a real ceasefire negotiation process. As long 51 00:03:14.680 --> 00:03:19.120 as they consider themselves winning and they're basically making very 52 00:03:19.159 --> 00:03:21.759 minor progress in the battlefield, they're not going to come 53 00:03:21.759 --> 00:03:25.879 to the table. And I think that's that's up to 54 00:03:26.639 --> 00:03:31.520 the coalition that supports Ukraine to change, right, So we 55 00:03:31.680 --> 00:03:37.599 need to stop talking about secondary sanctions and releasing Russian 56 00:03:37.639 --> 00:03:41.639 freeze frozen assets in Europe and increasing security assistance, and 57 00:03:41.719 --> 00:03:44.560 we need to do all those things. They need to happen. 58 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:47.919 If they don't happen, then you know, we're getting close 59 00:03:47.960 --> 00:03:50.280 to the definition of insanity. We just keep doing the 60 00:03:50.280 --> 00:03:54.319 same thing expecting a different outcome. It's time now to 61 00:03:56.159 --> 00:04:00.400 announce these things happening. Give a deadline. Russian could see 62 00:04:00.400 --> 00:04:05.520 the clock ticking. Secondary sanctions will be you know, going 63 00:04:05.560 --> 00:04:09.599 to a place on July tenth or whatever it is. 64 00:04:09.719 --> 00:04:11.639 Whatever they need. You know, there's a process that has 65 00:04:11.639 --> 00:04:15.280 to take place. So but initiate the process now. And 66 00:04:15.319 --> 00:04:17.839 if this is the date, we're going to start releasing 67 00:04:17.920 --> 00:04:21.240 thirty billion dollars a week, I'm just making this up, yeah, 68 00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:24.720 but these are real consequences from there's a three hundred 69 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:28.800 billion plus I think in Belgium alone to Ukraine. And 70 00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:35.720 you know you're seeing like Italy just donated several hundred 71 00:04:35.879 --> 00:04:38.399 armored personnel carriers. It's still happening, but they need to 72 00:04:38.439 --> 00:04:42.040 announce a substantial increase potentially even start getting ready to 73 00:04:42.040 --> 00:04:45.879 start moving forces around at the border, right, because there's 74 00:04:45.920 --> 00:04:47.439 a there's there's strong. 75 00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:49.120 Talk about like NATO forces. 76 00:04:50.319 --> 00:04:52.680 Well, I mean I wouldn't call it NATO because the 77 00:04:52.759 --> 00:04:56.040 US would likely oppose it, but countries are allowed to 78 00:04:56.040 --> 00:04:57.839 move their own forces. 79 00:04:57.920 --> 00:04:58.800 Yeah, Right, so. 80 00:05:00.959 --> 00:05:03.439 There is talk about like if if Russia starts making 81 00:05:03.480 --> 00:05:07.360 significant advances, are the Coalition of the willing, so the UK, France, 82 00:05:07.439 --> 00:05:12.120 Germany and Poland willing to send troops in the Kiev. Right, 83 00:05:12.199 --> 00:05:15.839 they don't need permission of Russia to send for Ukraine, 84 00:05:15.839 --> 00:05:20.920 to invite other European forces into Kiev, especially if Russia 85 00:05:21.079 --> 00:05:24.920 won't have a seasfire, right so, and the original plan 86 00:05:24.959 --> 00:05:27.600 of the United States had them go in during a 87 00:05:27.639 --> 00:05:32.040 ceasefire which Russia, which Russia will posed. So there needs 88 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:36.199 to be less you know, talking about what we could 89 00:05:36.319 --> 00:05:39.040 do and more doing what we could do can do. 90 00:05:39.680 --> 00:05:43.519 And I think that's what's coming next. Obviously the Pope 91 00:05:43.959 --> 00:05:48.720 is coming in with a lot of support. It he's liked. 92 00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:51.120 I mean, he's the Pope, so he expected to be like. 93 00:05:51.160 --> 00:05:54.199 But he's just this. This Pope seems to be particularly like. 94 00:05:55.920 --> 00:06:00.279 Not that Francis wasn't, but he could hold negotiations. And 95 00:06:00.360 --> 00:06:02.560 I think they should call it and they should. We 96 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:06.680 should send people and obviously the Ukrainians and European partners 97 00:06:06.680 --> 00:06:09.439 and see if Russia shows up, if they can't come 98 00:06:09.480 --> 00:06:15.439 to a ceasefire negotiation hosted by the Pope, right, then 99 00:06:15.480 --> 00:06:18.519 you got your answer, Yeah, you got your answer. Right. 100 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:22.360 It's all smoke and merits. It's all smoking marits. And 101 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:27.160 next time they demand that Ukraine withdraw from Ukraine, it 102 00:06:27.160 --> 00:06:32.120 should be immediately dismissed. It shouldn't have considered a legitimate 103 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:36.800 offer or negotiation. It needs to be a thirty day 104 00:06:36.879 --> 00:06:42.160 unconditional ceasefire. That's first, and then they start talking about 105 00:06:42.399 --> 00:06:45.959 ending the conflict long term until they get there, but 106 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:48.879 they should. I mean, I know it might be some posturing, 107 00:06:49.000 --> 00:06:51.519 but if the Pope calls for a summit in the 108 00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:55.480 Vatican on this date, that could be the kickoff of 109 00:06:55.560 --> 00:06:58.079 all the consequences that come after. When they don't show up, 110 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:00.439 or they don't show up and don't don't don't actually 111 00:07:00.439 --> 00:07:05.040 agreed to a thirty date unconditional spar then security assistance 112 00:07:05.079 --> 00:07:12.240 goes up, penalties, sanctions, additional sanction, secondary sanctions, and the 113 00:07:12.279 --> 00:07:15.319 start of the release of the That's what I think 114 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:18.120 is the only thing that's going to get Russia's attention. 115 00:07:18.480 --> 00:07:24.160 They only understand consequences. Compliments and capitulation just makes them 116 00:07:24.240 --> 00:07:24.800 more bold. 117 00:07:25.480 --> 00:07:27.759 Yeah. 118 00:07:28.240 --> 00:07:30.439 I also looked at like who attended the meetings too, 119 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:33.639 Like so like the Ukrainian defense minister was there, which 120 00:07:33.680 --> 00:07:37.120 is like got pretty high up, yes, And like for 121 00:07:37.199 --> 00:07:39.120 the Russians, the guy who's leading it was just like 122 00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:42.480 one of Putin's like advisors, right, and like maybe he's 123 00:07:42.480 --> 00:07:45.160 got to sway or whatever. Maybe he does have that wasta, 124 00:07:45.720 --> 00:07:48.319 but like Lavrov wasn't there. There wasn't anybody there of 125 00:07:48.439 --> 00:07:52.120 like you know, big big name, big face that people 126 00:07:52.199 --> 00:07:56.279 know and you know, at least recognize as somebody who's 127 00:07:56.319 --> 00:07:59.399 substantial in Russia. I mean, I'm sure, like ci An 128 00:07:59.439 --> 00:08:01.720 and listen all exactly about this dude and stuff like that, 129 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:05.040 I'm sure he does have a pull. But to go 130 00:08:05.120 --> 00:08:08.079 from like yeah, a week before when Putin's calling for 131 00:08:08.199 --> 00:08:11.240 this stuff to wins Lance, He's like, yeah, I'll be there, 132 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:15.240 like I'll be there with ells On right, like I'm 133 00:08:15.279 --> 00:08:17.319 ready to talk, and then he just like took completely 134 00:08:17.360 --> 00:08:23.079 fucking balks at it. It's like, what is the strategic 135 00:08:23.240 --> 00:08:26.639 value for Russia in doing that or Putin and doing that? 136 00:08:26.839 --> 00:08:28.480 Is it just like throwing shit at the wall and 137 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:30.759 seeing what sticks for them? Like I don't understand like 138 00:08:30.800 --> 00:08:31.959 the logic. 139 00:08:33.360 --> 00:08:35.440 I think for them, they think it keeps them in 140 00:08:35.559 --> 00:08:41.080 the discussion as part of this process for a ceasefire, right, 141 00:08:41.120 --> 00:08:44.519 so we called it, we showed up, But it has 142 00:08:44.600 --> 00:08:48.000 to actually have substance, right, So it's if not, it's 143 00:08:48.039 --> 00:08:50.480 just a stalling deck. We're just trying to see how 144 00:08:50.559 --> 00:08:53.240 much more they can take on the battlefield. It's it's 145 00:08:53.639 --> 00:08:56.399 really obvious, and I know it's obvious to everybody. So 146 00:08:56.399 --> 00:08:59.639 I'm pointing out something, well to most people, I'm not 147 00:08:59.639 --> 00:09:03.200 putting most most of our people listening, I think right now, 148 00:09:03.240 --> 00:09:06.440 are like, yeah, no kidding. That's why I say they 149 00:09:06.559 --> 00:09:09.320 pick a date really early, like as soon as possible 150 00:09:09.440 --> 00:09:13.080 at the Vatican when we hit that thirty day ceasefire 151 00:09:13.559 --> 00:09:16.399 goes into place. If they Russians don't show up or 152 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:19.120 don't agree to a thirty day ceasefire, then it turns 153 00:09:19.159 --> 00:09:22.279 into a planning session, obviously out of the Vatican, because 154 00:09:22.279 --> 00:09:24.320 the Vatican isn't going to be part of the planning 155 00:09:24.360 --> 00:09:28.279 session for Ukraine winning necessarily, they need to stay neutral. 156 00:09:28.600 --> 00:09:32.440 Then it immediately it shifts. They leave the Vatican and 157 00:09:32.519 --> 00:09:35.480 they start planning. You know, Prime Minister Malone, he's a 158 00:09:35.480 --> 00:09:37.440 big supporter of Ukraine, so they can just go down 159 00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:42.840 the road to Rome and boom, they start planning. Okay, 160 00:09:42.879 --> 00:09:44.799 how were we going to win this thing? Then that's 161 00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:47.480 you got to you gotta play to win, right, You 162 00:09:47.519 --> 00:09:50.360 can't play to tie, you can't play to capitulate. You 163 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:53.000 gotta play to win. And we are so far past 164 00:09:53.080 --> 00:09:54.440 the time when that needs to happen. 165 00:09:55.039 --> 00:09:56.120 Hey, guys, it's Jack. 166 00:09:56.240 --> 00:09:58.360 I want to tell you guys about the sponsor for 167 00:09:58.440 --> 00:09:59.080 today's show. 168 00:09:59.200 --> 00:09:59.840 It's Mando. 169 00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:05.399 Mando makes a whole series of male grooming products. They 170 00:10:05.559 --> 00:10:08.360 are unique and not There are a deodorant that you 171 00:10:08.360 --> 00:10:10.919 can use all over your body on armpits if you like, 172 00:10:11.080 --> 00:10:15.720 but also wherever else you may deem necessary. And I 173 00:10:15.759 --> 00:10:19.559 have been using these products for about three months now. 174 00:10:19.679 --> 00:10:23.639 I've been using the body wash it's Bourbon Leather. I've 175 00:10:23.679 --> 00:10:26.639 been using their bar of soap, which I really enjoyed, 176 00:10:27.159 --> 00:10:31.120 and also their deodorant. And so I exercise a lot 177 00:10:31.159 --> 00:10:33.399 and get very sweaty, so I need a deodorant that's 178 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:36.200 going to do the job, and Mando has come through 179 00:10:36.200 --> 00:10:36.519 for me. 180 00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:37.000 You know. 181 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:39.559 The body wash was great. I actually used all of that. 182 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:43.559 Need to reorder some more. The bar of soap is 183 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:47.600 also very cool. It was very very smooth actually, so 184 00:10:47.960 --> 00:10:49.720 I hope you guys will go and check them out. 185 00:10:49.799 --> 00:10:52.559 They have a starter kit that's up there, and they 186 00:10:52.559 --> 00:10:56.399 have a special deal for Team House viewers, so the 187 00:10:56.519 --> 00:10:59.039 starter pack is perfect for new customers. It comes with 188 00:10:59.080 --> 00:11:02.480 a solid, sticky odorant cream tube deodorant, two free products 189 00:11:02.519 --> 00:11:05.559 of your choice like mini body wash and deodorant wipes, 190 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:08.720 and free shipping. As a special offer for listeners, new 191 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:11.840 customers get five dollars off of starter pack with our 192 00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:15.200 exclusive code that equates to over forty percent off your 193 00:11:15.200 --> 00:11:20.440 Starter pack. Use code Teamhouse at Shopmando dot com. That's 194 00:11:20.919 --> 00:11:27.000 Shop m a ndo dot com. Please support our show 195 00:11:27.159 --> 00:11:30.440 and tell them we sent you Smell fresher, stay dryer, 196 00:11:30.759 --> 00:11:33.200 and boost your confidence from head to toe with Mando. 197 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:37.480 And I think even the Trump administration, which came in 198 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:40.679 as a different perspective than say, the Biden administration, has 199 00:11:40.759 --> 00:11:46.200 realized that this is clearly an issue of Russia not righting. 200 00:11:46.840 --> 00:11:52.240 Ukraine is the grief party. Ukraine was invaded. It wasn't 201 00:11:52.279 --> 00:11:55.480 because Ukraine was going to join NATO. Rukaina has been 202 00:11:55.519 --> 00:11:58.960 asking to join NATO fourteen years before the war started, 203 00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:02.600 and we said no each time. Yeah, and NATO has 204 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:05.600 expanded because of the Russian decision to invade Ukraine. 205 00:12:05.679 --> 00:12:09.440 So also like if let's say Russian never invaded but 206 00:12:09.519 --> 00:12:11.600 they still have one hundred and fifty thousand troops on 207 00:12:11.639 --> 00:12:14.879 the border of Ukraine, NATO's not going to be like yeah, 208 00:12:15.320 --> 00:12:17.799 well accept you with open arms, right, Like, it's not 209 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:21.320 like they're gonna take that into consideration of like what's 210 00:12:21.360 --> 00:12:24.120 going to trigger an Article five And let's say something 211 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:26.440 does trigger an Article five Ukraine. This is just a 212 00:12:26.519 --> 00:12:30.519 thought experiment now. But you know, then you have to see, like, oh, 213 00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:34.279 is NATO up to snuff? Are they really willing to 214 00:12:36.279 --> 00:12:40.399 enforce Article five on let's say a new member, right Like, 215 00:12:40.679 --> 00:12:43.519 so I couldn't. I couldn't believe like it would be 216 00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:47.320 an easy process for Ukraine to have gotten into NATO, 217 00:12:47.639 --> 00:12:49.600 even if when like I remember when George Bush was 218 00:12:49.639 --> 00:12:52.480 talking about Georgia becoming a NATO member and stuff like that, 219 00:12:53.240 --> 00:12:55.840 Like that's all kind of rhetoric, Like it's not really 220 00:12:56.000 --> 00:12:59.559 like there's a process obviously that goes goes, goes through it. 221 00:12:59.639 --> 00:13:03.080 I mean Sweden and Finland they joined, but it wasn't 222 00:13:03.120 --> 00:13:05.159 really like yeah, you guys are in, no problem. We 223 00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:07.080 had shit to deal with with Turkey and stuff like 224 00:13:07.159 --> 00:13:10.480 that to allow Sweden, was it in or whatever? 225 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:13.919 You know, like yeah, right, focus, So it's like k 226 00:13:14.320 --> 00:13:17.600 and all that stuff which is now could put PKK. 227 00:13:17.759 --> 00:13:23.919 That's an other topic. They've they've basically closed shop. But 228 00:13:24.039 --> 00:13:26.679 you're right, but there is a scenario where NATO where 229 00:13:26.919 --> 00:13:29.440 Ukraine could get in to NATO if they agree to 230 00:13:30.080 --> 00:13:34.279 you know, not seed territory, but stop fighting. And yeah, 231 00:13:34.480 --> 00:13:37.000 you know, obviously Russia does control part of their territory 232 00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:40.720 about eighteen percent. I mean, I think Ukraine should be 233 00:13:40.759 --> 00:13:42.519 the one to decide this, but if they do decide it, 234 00:13:42.559 --> 00:13:44.639 they should be get instant membership for the rest of 235 00:13:44.759 --> 00:13:48.799 Ukraine in the NATO, right as a compromise. Yeah, so 236 00:13:48.919 --> 00:13:52.480 that's it's frozen. It's frozen, doesn't mean that that's part 237 00:13:52.559 --> 00:13:55.240 of Russia. Like the National Committee should recognize it, but 238 00:13:55.240 --> 00:13:56.799 they're not going to do anything to take it back. 239 00:13:56.840 --> 00:14:02.799 So crimea essentially be Russia. But that's there is a scenario. 240 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:06.559 That's the security guaranty right, right, So. 241 00:14:06.679 --> 00:14:11.120 Once again it shows just how strategically bad this was 242 00:14:11.240 --> 00:14:14.159 for Russia. Right, So they end up with a completely 243 00:14:14.279 --> 00:14:19.480 demolish section of Ukraine that isn't internationally recognized as Russia. 244 00:14:19.600 --> 00:14:23.360 And then Ukraine becomes part of NATO, you know, the 245 00:14:23.440 --> 00:14:27.200 most viable part in the United States moves in in 246 00:14:27.440 --> 00:14:32.799 large numbers to help, you know, extrapolate the natural resources. 247 00:14:34.000 --> 00:14:37.399 It's a NATO country and that's good for Russia. I mean, 248 00:14:37.639 --> 00:14:40.799 Putin makes just bad decisions, but we need to make 249 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:44.120 it a bad decision on his part and stop basically 250 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:47.519 you know, screwing around. 251 00:14:48.960 --> 00:14:50.919 You think that he made this decision to go into 252 00:14:51.039 --> 00:14:55.720 Ukraine because like his his intel and his defense guys 253 00:14:55.879 --> 00:14:58.279 were just like feeding him bullshit like, oh, we're going 254 00:14:58.360 --> 00:15:00.000 to smoke these guys in like a week or two. 255 00:15:01.080 --> 00:15:04.480 That's a good question because like to be the analyst 256 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:08.960 in this are intel with Sammy, we're going to take them, right, 257 00:15:09.120 --> 00:15:13.679 So I mean, okay, so yes, I'm sure that they 258 00:15:13.759 --> 00:15:15.440 have a bit of the tail the boss what he 259 00:15:15.519 --> 00:15:19.559 wants to hear things in Russia. Yeah, but I do believe, 260 00:15:19.879 --> 00:15:22.360 just like we believe, that they would be able to 261 00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:26.320 take Russia. I mean it is the difference in size 262 00:15:26.360 --> 00:15:34.279 of military postulation resources, solid alliances to be honest, because 263 00:15:34.480 --> 00:15:38.159 Ukraine had no alliances other than you know, the United 264 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:41.320 States and the UK and Russia that said that they 265 00:15:41.320 --> 00:15:44.759 wouldn't get invaded when they gave up their nuclear US, right, 266 00:15:44.799 --> 00:15:48.200 But it wasn't a real alliance because proven we don't 267 00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:53.159 keep our work unless it's an actual treaty. So if 268 00:15:53.200 --> 00:15:56.480 you look go back to February at twenty two, we 269 00:15:56.600 --> 00:15:59.639 were almost in line with what I think Russia and 270 00:15:59.720 --> 00:16:01.960 tel just was telling Pootin, Yeah, you're going to win. 271 00:16:02.039 --> 00:16:04.919 It's going to take three weeks around that, and keep's 272 00:16:04.960 --> 00:16:09.200 going to fall and the government's going to flee into exile. 273 00:16:09.320 --> 00:16:14.840 And they have it, and they completely underestimated, as did we, 274 00:16:15.639 --> 00:16:20.200 the well of the Ukrainian people, the incompetence of Russian 275 00:16:20.240 --> 00:16:26.080 military planners and executors for that matter. Their logistics system 276 00:16:26.159 --> 00:16:28.919 couldn't even keep up with an invasion of a country 277 00:16:29.000 --> 00:16:30.000 that was right next to them. 278 00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:30.480 Crazy. 279 00:16:30.639 --> 00:16:34.039 Yeah, I mean it's it's you know, the US can 280 00:16:34.720 --> 00:16:38.639 can invade and supply a force on the other side 281 00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:43.559 of the world that's completely landlocked Afghanistan for example. Yeah, Russia, 282 00:16:43.600 --> 00:16:49.240 couldn't you get kings and ship? Yeah, you bring America lines? Yeah, 283 00:16:49.320 --> 00:16:52.559 you know, twenty five miles in from their border. 284 00:16:53.840 --> 00:16:55.799 That is a job. Yeah. Yeah. 285 00:16:57.759 --> 00:17:00.720 I mean everyone's been talking about how like, well, ever 286 00:17:00.840 --> 00:17:05.000 since this like Russia's armies essentially a paper tiger, They're 287 00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:06.640 not not going to sneeze app But I mean, if 288 00:17:06.640 --> 00:17:10.440 you can't take over, it's like US not being able 289 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:12.640 to just a bad example given the times but it's 290 00:17:12.720 --> 00:17:14.559 US not being able to like invade and take. 291 00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:19.319 Over Canada, right, I don't know you could. Actually it 292 00:17:19.440 --> 00:17:21.319 might be a similar size difference. 293 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:26.279 Yeah right, well like population wise yeah yeah yeah, and 294 00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:27.119 military size. 295 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:31.480 I mean you have to look it up. Yeah, I 296 00:17:31.519 --> 00:17:33.640 think it really showed. And the Russia has had to 297 00:17:33.680 --> 00:17:36.880 rely on North Korean troops potentially Chinese troops Russia, I mean, 298 00:17:37.240 --> 00:17:40.319 Iranian drones, and now it looks like I might provide 299 00:17:40.359 --> 00:17:48.079 short short range missiles and North Korean artillery by the millions. Yeah, right, 300 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:50.480 So if they didn't have that manufacturing, they're very cheap 301 00:17:50.559 --> 00:17:56.799 manufacturing in North Korea, they'd be they'd be in bad place. Yeah, 302 00:17:56.799 --> 00:18:00.720 because they're losing troops, like it's literally unheard of in 303 00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:04.599 modern warfare. You know, after World War Two, they're losing 304 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:08.720 troops thousands a week. It's just they just generally don't 305 00:18:08.759 --> 00:18:10.160 give a damn about their people. 306 00:18:10.960 --> 00:18:16.519 It's kind of incredible, right, like right, how Russian like 307 00:18:16.720 --> 00:18:21.640 the population puts up with it because like it's unbelievable 308 00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:25.720 how insulated and protected I guess that regime is. Because 309 00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:29.359 if you've lost one hundred and fifty two hundred thousand 310 00:18:29.440 --> 00:18:33.200 guys plus like another double that or more in casualties hurt, 311 00:18:33.359 --> 00:18:38.319 like guys who are hurt. I don't understand how a 312 00:18:38.400 --> 00:18:41.640 regime like that could stay in power. It's fucking insane 313 00:18:41.799 --> 00:18:43.799 to think in this modern day because like, yeah, right, 314 00:18:43.839 --> 00:18:46.559 they have control over the internet and the information, but 315 00:18:46.559 --> 00:18:49.119 at the same time people are getting information too, right, Like, 316 00:18:49.480 --> 00:18:52.200 at some point you're gonna notice, Shit, we've lost one 317 00:18:52.319 --> 00:18:54.640 hundred and fifty thousand, two hundred thousand guys. 318 00:18:55.640 --> 00:19:01.240 Guys are coming back, uncles, they're not coming back. You 319 00:19:01.279 --> 00:19:04.720 don't need to be posted on Twitter, You're you're seeing it. 320 00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:07.880 So and all the people that, you know, one of 321 00:19:07.920 --> 00:19:11.319 the big issues in Russia is all the people they 322 00:19:11.359 --> 00:19:14.200 could do a different, can make Russia difference, that are competent, 323 00:19:14.319 --> 00:19:16.920 that are want to see you know, freedoms and free 324 00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:21.400 economies and stuff, they leave right because they'll be crust immediately. Yeah, 325 00:19:21.960 --> 00:19:24.960 So it's a vicious cycle where the people who are 326 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:31.759 would most advanced the country leaving come of the United States. Yeah, 327 00:19:31.960 --> 00:19:35.359 you're right, and it leaves only the people that profit 328 00:19:35.799 --> 00:19:38.319 of the regime staying in place, you know, the oligarchs. 329 00:19:40.519 --> 00:19:40.720 Yeah. 330 00:19:41.319 --> 00:19:44.480 Man, it's just incredible, Like in this day and age 331 00:19:44.640 --> 00:19:48.599 is going on between two year, Like you know, in 332 00:19:48.759 --> 00:19:51.440 Europe there's a fucking human civil hand who are going on? 333 00:19:53.960 --> 00:19:55.920 What do you think happens next in terms of like 334 00:19:56.079 --> 00:19:57.680 talks and stuff like that. Give me a little bit 335 00:19:57.680 --> 00:19:58.880 of speculation. 336 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:04.839 So I think I think obviously the Coalition of the 337 00:20:05.240 --> 00:20:08.839 Willing they calls for main actually it's all Europe, right, 338 00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:12.119 But those are the ones that are most engaged, you know, 339 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:17.680 bout Karl, every everybody that's I already referenced. I think 340 00:20:17.680 --> 00:20:19.359 they're ready to do this. They don't need, you know, 341 00:20:19.519 --> 00:20:22.079 Mick mull Ry from Montana to tell them, like it's. 342 00:20:22.000 --> 00:20:22.720 Time to move out. 343 00:20:22.839 --> 00:20:25.400 You got to start secondary sanctions, you got to start 344 00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:30.319 freezing assets. I think that's the next time discussion. I 345 00:20:30.400 --> 00:20:32.400 think we'll hear that soon. If not, then I would 346 00:20:32.440 --> 00:20:34.440 be uh surprised. 347 00:20:35.359 --> 00:20:36.039 Do you think. 348 00:20:38.640 --> 00:20:40.640 The reason why this is being held up? Do you 349 00:20:40.720 --> 00:20:42.960 believe it's got something to do with the Trump administration 350 00:20:43.200 --> 00:20:46.119 and like Europe trying to play it like I don't, 351 00:20:46.279 --> 00:20:48.599 for lack of a better word, like hand holding a 352 00:20:48.680 --> 00:20:50.839 little bit to be like we have to do this, 353 00:20:51.000 --> 00:20:53.759 we should do this, because like you said earlier, you know, 354 00:20:53.839 --> 00:20:56.440 the Trump administration compared to the body administration came in 355 00:20:56.519 --> 00:20:58.920 with a little bit different thought process, and when it 356 00:20:58.960 --> 00:21:00.799 comes to in terms of like Ushia and stuff like that, 357 00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:05.960 and who invaded who, and like whose faultness is, do 358 00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:09.200 you think that like that might be a little bit 359 00:21:09.240 --> 00:21:11.640 of why there's some drag to this and it's not 360 00:21:11.839 --> 00:21:15.319 really happening as fast as we'd like it to happen. 361 00:21:16.920 --> 00:21:20.039 Yeah, I think there was that caused the drag where 362 00:21:20.319 --> 00:21:24.480 people were I mean, we saw some of the stuff 363 00:21:24.519 --> 00:21:28.680 that I just was really shocking, you know, repeating Russian Yeah, 364 00:21:28.920 --> 00:21:33.640 very discredited talking points for example, this idea that we 365 00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:37.359 were trusting Russia. It's not the first administration who is 366 00:21:38.000 --> 00:21:40.839 wrongfully came to the conclusion of trusting Putin. And we 367 00:21:40.880 --> 00:21:43.759 can all remember the whole President Bush not. 368 00:21:43.839 --> 00:21:44.640 The ranch thing. 369 00:21:45.960 --> 00:21:47.839 Well, you know, I looked into his eyes and all 370 00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:50.319 that stuff. I mean, the guy's a KGB spies, right, 371 00:21:50.440 --> 00:21:52.160 I mean, he knows how to make you. 372 00:21:52.599 --> 00:21:54.759 I think that was at his ranch in Texas through. 373 00:21:56.599 --> 00:21:59.519 And then you know Secretary Clinton with the giant reset 374 00:21:59.640 --> 00:22:03.279 button and all that stuff. I mean, I think I think, 375 00:22:04.720 --> 00:22:06.720 you know, there's plenty of things to point out in 376 00:22:06.759 --> 00:22:11.480 the past that we're very misplaced when it comes to 377 00:22:11.519 --> 00:22:13.599 trusting Russia. But I think we're in a spot right 378 00:22:13.640 --> 00:22:18.480 now where the administration right understands just who needs to 379 00:22:18.519 --> 00:22:20.559 be trusted and who needs not to be trusted, and 380 00:22:20.680 --> 00:22:24.559 that you can't just convince President Putin to do anything 381 00:22:24.880 --> 00:22:28.000 that he doesn't want to without force, you just can't, 382 00:22:28.920 --> 00:22:30.319 or some kind of coersion, right, it doesn't have to 383 00:22:30.400 --> 00:22:32.440 be a military force, but it can be economic pressure 384 00:22:33.119 --> 00:22:37.079 sections and such that has to That has to be 385 00:22:37.279 --> 00:22:39.039 what leads or we're going to be stuck in this. 386 00:22:40.039 --> 00:22:43.640 Pure but it's not going to advance. Yeah, it's not good. 387 00:22:43.640 --> 00:22:47.279 They're just going to keep making incremental advances and eventually 388 00:22:47.759 --> 00:22:51.720 the rest of Europe as Europe will have to make 389 00:22:51.759 --> 00:22:53.480 a stand and they might do it and keep it 390 00:22:54.440 --> 00:22:57.519 yeah and say, okay, so now you're attacking French, German, 391 00:22:58.759 --> 00:23:04.920 Polish and Great Britain's forces. So how you're fighting all 392 00:23:04.960 --> 00:23:07.359 of us? And then we'll have to decide, you know, 393 00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:12.240 as an Article five situation, right right, if they start 394 00:23:12.279 --> 00:23:15.359 attacking countries in Europe, not just in Ukraine, then it 395 00:23:15.440 --> 00:23:16.200 definitely would. 396 00:23:16.079 --> 00:23:19.359 Be well that there's like, no, there's no interpretation for that. 397 00:23:20.480 --> 00:23:22.519 I wonder what would happen if like there was a 398 00:23:22.599 --> 00:23:25.759 coalition of like UK, France, Poland and you know the 399 00:23:25.839 --> 00:23:30.519 rest of Europe that sent like a division into Keith. 400 00:23:31.440 --> 00:23:34.359 What would happen? Like, how would Putin react to that? 401 00:23:36.160 --> 00:23:38.359