WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.159 --> 00:00:06.120 It's night with Dan Ray. I'm telling you easy Boston's Radio. 2 00:00:08.160 --> 00:00:12.960 All Right, we are two weeks away, two weeks away 3 00:00:13.960 --> 00:00:18.960 from the from the election of twenty twenty four. The 4 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:23.679 election has seemed to have been two years away, four 5 00:00:23.760 --> 00:00:26.120 years away, or ten years away, and now it's on 6 00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:30.719 our doorstep with us as Spencer Kimball a polster at 7 00:00:30.800 --> 00:00:35.759 Emerson College, and again I talk at the troiker posters, 8 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:38.920 posters that I believe in, and Spencer is right there 9 00:00:38.920 --> 00:00:43.799 with Dave Paleologus and John Zogby and what what what's 10 00:00:43.840 --> 00:00:48.439 your What do you got at this point, Spencer that 11 00:00:48.600 --> 00:00:51.920 there's so many numbers here that would make your head spin. 12 00:00:52.079 --> 00:00:54.280 How do you I'm not going to ask you who's 13 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:57.280 going to win, because obviously if the election, election is 14 00:00:57.320 --> 00:01:00.759 not being held today, But what what's the trend? What 15 00:01:01.119 --> 00:01:03.359 do you see? What do your sense? What do you feel? 16 00:01:03.399 --> 00:01:06.879 Everybody I'm sure has a rooting interest of some sort. 17 00:01:07.480 --> 00:01:10.079 Your rooting interest is to be as accurate as possible. 18 00:01:10.200 --> 00:01:14.120 Correct, You got it, Dan, and thanks again for having 19 00:01:14.120 --> 00:01:19.480 me as always. Well, it's an exciting time two weeks 20 00:01:19.480 --> 00:01:23.040 out from the election, particularly in this race that obviously 21 00:01:23.120 --> 00:01:26.799 got shaken up over the summer, when President Biden drops 22 00:01:26.840 --> 00:01:30.000 out and the vice president jumps in, we saw a 23 00:01:30.079 --> 00:01:34.760 lot of movement in those numbers going in the democrats favor. Now, 24 00:01:34.799 --> 00:01:39.079 it seems over the last four or five weeks they've 25 00:01:39.079 --> 00:01:42.959 been floating back into the Republican's favor, at least at 26 00:01:42.280 --> 00:01:48.359 the presidential level. Some of the congressional races have swung 27 00:01:48.400 --> 00:01:51.400 in different ways, but at the presidential level, it seems 28 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:55.719 generally across these states they started to trend back towards 29 00:01:55.719 --> 00:01:59.840 Trump after him losing ground when Harris initially jumped in. 30 00:02:00.959 --> 00:02:04.519 Well, I'm looking at five point thirty eight, which is 31 00:02:04.719 --> 00:02:09.280 kind of a composite side of the different polls, and 32 00:02:10.360 --> 00:02:16.240 I look at this the favorable unfavorable. This is the 33 00:02:16.280 --> 00:02:20.840 combined polls favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. So 34 00:02:21.039 --> 00:02:26.599 on January first this year, his unfavorable is fifty two 35 00:02:26.639 --> 00:02:31.599 point five percent. His favorable was four point two six percent, 36 00:02:31.919 --> 00:02:36.479 just about a nine point nine percent spread. The latest 37 00:02:36.680 --> 00:02:43.759 composite basically has his unfavorable a nine point two percent 38 00:02:43.840 --> 00:02:49.840 spread in the wrong direction. So his unfavorable really hasn't 39 00:02:49.960 --> 00:02:53.240 moved much if we use January first, you know, as 40 00:02:53.240 --> 00:02:56.199 a as a starting point. I'm just picking a number 41 00:02:56.199 --> 00:03:01.759 that you know, he was ten point five unfavorable. Excuse me, 42 00:03:01.840 --> 00:03:04.199 a ten point five difference he was his unfavorable was 43 00:03:04.240 --> 00:03:08.319 fifty two point seven. His favorable was forty two point two. 44 00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:13.439 So again that's a ten point five difference. Now, as 45 00:03:13.479 --> 00:03:18.680 of I guess the nineteenth of October, which would have 46 00:03:18.719 --> 00:03:23.240 been Saturday, his unfavorables nine point two. Not much of 47 00:03:23.280 --> 00:03:31.599 a swing there. And yet if you look at Kamala Harris, 48 00:03:32.120 --> 00:03:37.439 the same sort of set of circumstances, where can I 49 00:03:37.479 --> 00:03:37.840 find her? 50 00:03:37.919 --> 00:03:38.080 Yeah? 51 00:03:38.080 --> 00:03:41.400 I got her here. All of a sudden, she has 52 00:03:41.439 --> 00:03:50.120 had a precipitous drop. Her unfavorable was as high as 53 00:03:51.400 --> 00:03:58.840 sixteen point eight percent in late June, their unfavorable rating 54 00:04:00.439 --> 00:04:05.680 and her favorle rating was only thirty six. Now you 55 00:04:05.759 --> 00:04:11.680 get all the way to today her her unfavorable rating 56 00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:14.319 is forty seven point two and her favorable is forty 57 00:04:14.319 --> 00:04:18.000 six point five, almost the same. So that on that 58 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:22.319 it would look as if Harris should win because her 59 00:04:22.399 --> 00:04:26.000 favorable unfavorable is pretty closest, so kind of a forty 60 00:04:26.040 --> 00:04:29.240 seven to forty seven split, where Trump still has a 61 00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:32.120 ninety's nine points to the negative. 62 00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:35.720 Well, there's a lot of unpacked there, Dan. 63 00:04:35.839 --> 00:04:37.480 Yeah, absolutely, So go ahead. 64 00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:42.959 We got to remember eight years ago, when Donald Trump's running, 65 00:04:43.000 --> 00:04:47.040 his favorability is at forty percent. So over the course 66 00:04:47.120 --> 00:04:50.800 of the last eight years, essentially his favorability number has 67 00:04:50.839 --> 00:04:54.959 gone up one point every year. And it's almost says 68 00:04:55.000 --> 00:04:59.040 if America has grown more accustomed to Trump and his 69 00:04:59.199 --> 00:05:01.600 number has gone up. So that's a bit of an 70 00:05:01.680 --> 00:05:05.240 issue for the Democrats this cycle, as compared to twenty sixteen, 71 00:05:05.759 --> 00:05:09.079 when you have that messaging where it's more negative on Trump. 72 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:12.399 Here he's got a more favorable rating than what we've 73 00:05:12.439 --> 00:05:18.319 seen anytime in his political career over these last eight years. 74 00:05:18.519 --> 00:05:22.560 Okay, he's gone up a little bit. Okay, gotcha, I'm 75 00:05:22.560 --> 00:05:24.160 looking at that. You're absolutely right. 76 00:05:24.480 --> 00:05:27.240 So now we got Harris. Harris was the vice president, 77 00:05:27.519 --> 00:05:30.600 and there's a lot of disparaging words that people have 78 00:05:30.759 --> 00:05:33.480 used over the years for the job of the vice president, 79 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:38.560 starting back with John Adams. You know, even Adams you know, 80 00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:40.720 said it was, you know, not the best job in 81 00:05:40.759 --> 00:05:45.120 the world anyways. So as vice president, usually you're taking 82 00:05:45.240 --> 00:05:47.519 like the heat for anything that's not working out in 83 00:05:47.560 --> 00:05:52.600 the administration. You're usually the attack person on the you know, 84 00:05:52.639 --> 00:05:56.240 with the media, and it hurts your popularity, and so 85 00:05:56.360 --> 00:05:59.480 you saw that with Harris. Then when Harris enters into 86 00:05:59.480 --> 00:06:04.120 the race becomes the nominee, it all changes literally overnight, 87 00:06:04.199 --> 00:06:06.920 and you see it in those numbers. Now what happens 88 00:06:07.040 --> 00:06:09.399 is it's a big shake up, and it's kind of 89 00:06:09.439 --> 00:06:12.439 like people looked at her for the first time as hey, 90 00:06:12.480 --> 00:06:15.839 could this person be president? And some people are like, yeah, 91 00:06:15.879 --> 00:06:18.519 I like that, and you can see her favorability goes 92 00:06:18.920 --> 00:06:22.920 way up. She was in the low maybe thirty seven, 93 00:06:23.040 --> 00:06:23.800 thirty eight. 94 00:06:23.800 --> 00:06:27.720 Exactly on July nineteenth, which I think might have been 95 00:06:27.759 --> 00:06:33.959 the weekend that Joe Biden basically said I'm out, her 96 00:06:34.000 --> 00:06:37.199 favorability rating was thirty seven point one percent. 97 00:06:38.000 --> 00:06:41.879 So she springs up there, and it's very similar to 98 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.480 what happened when she announced her candidacy for president five 99 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:49.959 years ago. Her favorability springs up then as well, but 100 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:53.079 then over the course of that campaign, which was about 101 00:06:53.879 --> 00:06:58.800 a couple of months, her favorabilities dropped and just never 102 00:06:58.839 --> 00:07:03.040 took off. So now we're in this election cycle and 103 00:07:03.079 --> 00:07:06.600 we've seen a very similar pattern occur, where yes, that 104 00:07:06.639 --> 00:07:09.839 favorability is up, but now, as you mentioned, she's a 105 00:07:09.839 --> 00:07:13.839 little bit underwater. The unfavorables are a little bit higher 106 00:07:13.839 --> 00:07:17.399 than the favorables again right there with you know, within 107 00:07:17.439 --> 00:07:21.279 a point. And so that's a problem because it's supposed 108 00:07:21.319 --> 00:07:23.920 to be she's going to be a more favorable candidate 109 00:07:23.959 --> 00:07:26.839 than Trump. And when we look at these numbers, and 110 00:07:26.879 --> 00:07:28.800 again these are aggregate numbers, they're not the. 111 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:32.120 Emerson right right, right, right, Yeah. And also it looks 112 00:07:32.120 --> 00:07:35.560 it looks like that, it looks to me like the 113 00:07:35.600 --> 00:07:40.720 public would love to see two different candidates. Obviously that's 114 00:07:40.759 --> 00:07:41.560 not going to change. 115 00:07:41.720 --> 00:07:44.279 No, they're more happy with these candidates than they were 116 00:07:44.680 --> 00:07:47.519 eight years ago, even though Trump is the same candidate. 117 00:07:47.920 --> 00:07:50.600 They're happier with you know, they have a more favorable 118 00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:53.720 opinion of Trump today than they did eight years ago, 119 00:07:54.279 --> 00:07:59.040 even four years ago. And that's a benefit right now 120 00:07:59.079 --> 00:08:01.480 for Trump in his brand. 121 00:08:02.079 --> 00:08:04.560 So so how does you know, you say, okay, four 122 00:08:04.639 --> 00:08:09.199 years ago, this was before the indictments on. 123 00:08:09.120 --> 00:08:12.759 This, I mean, you know, opinions change. You know, we 124 00:08:13.000 --> 00:08:15.560 like some things. You know, times change, and if you 125 00:08:15.560 --> 00:08:18.079 can stay in the public spotlight, what you know, this 126 00:08:18.199 --> 00:08:22.439 is a very unique candidacy and that it's potentially you know, 127 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:26.560 it's been eight years, it could potentially be four more years, 128 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:30.639 which is not something that we regularly see. And so 129 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:35.080 he has grown accustom to a lot of American voters. 130 00:08:35.720 --> 00:08:35.919 Uh. 131 00:08:35.919 --> 00:08:38.320 And there's also the flip side, where you know, there's 132 00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:41.639 a lot of polarization where they dislike Trump. But that 133 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:44.879 number has dropped a little bit from where it was, 134 00:08:45.519 --> 00:08:48.799 particularly eight years ago, but even four years ago, during 135 00:08:48.799 --> 00:08:51.879 the COVID response, that number was a little bit higher. 136 00:08:52.080 --> 00:08:55.120 Now it's now that number is down as well. And 137 00:08:55.519 --> 00:08:57.480 those are factors playing into this election. 138 00:08:58.039 --> 00:09:01.120 Now, the national polls who would you vote for polls 139 00:09:01.159 --> 00:09:05.440 the average of all these candidates, of these two candidates, 140 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:09.799 it's now a difference of a little less than two 141 00:09:09.799 --> 00:09:13.440 percentage points. Harris forty eight point two, Trump forty six 142 00:09:13.480 --> 00:09:18.279 point four. That means that there's still about five percent 143 00:09:18.320 --> 00:09:20.440 of the people who either have voted for a third 144 00:09:20.480 --> 00:09:23.559 party candidate or have not made up their mind. How 145 00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:27.039 important is it for Trump to keep it this close? 146 00:09:27.200 --> 00:09:30.559 I mean, he's losing in the popular vote, but the 147 00:09:30.559 --> 00:09:32.919 theory is that he doesn't necessarily have to win the 148 00:09:32.919 --> 00:09:36.519 popular vote in order to win the electoral college. Right. 149 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:40.399 Based on Trump's game plans from the last two cycles, 150 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:43.679 when he lost by two and a half points nationally, 151 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:47.600 he was able to win those swing states by forty 152 00:09:47.679 --> 00:09:51.080 five thousand votes and win the presidency. When he lost 153 00:09:51.080 --> 00:09:55.399 by four and a half points nationally, then Biden was 154 00:09:55.440 --> 00:09:58.679 able to win those swing states by forty five fifty 155 00:09:58.720 --> 00:10:02.600 thousand votes go on to the presidency. And so, as 156 00:10:02.600 --> 00:10:05.039 you mentioned, some of the polls have it right at 157 00:10:05.080 --> 00:10:08.360 three three and a half. We have it a little 158 00:10:08.360 --> 00:10:11.279 bit under two. But there's a little bit of a 159 00:10:11.320 --> 00:10:15.600 difference between this election cycle and others, and that Harris 160 00:10:15.679 --> 00:10:19.279 is really not campaigning in like forty states. She's not 161 00:10:19.360 --> 00:10:22.080 really going to California, she's not really going to New York. 162 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:25.600 She's not camp because there isn't that normal election cycle 163 00:10:25.639 --> 00:10:29.120 where there's a nominating phase, there's the primaries. None of 164 00:10:29.159 --> 00:10:32.440 that happened, and so the voters don't know her as 165 00:10:32.480 --> 00:10:35.759 well as they would have known a previous candidate from 166 00:10:35.840 --> 00:10:39.799 any election cycle because that campaigning didn't occur. And so 167 00:10:39.879 --> 00:10:42.879 her numbers are down in New York by like five points, 168 00:10:42.919 --> 00:10:45.559 not ten points. Five points, so instead of being up 169 00:10:45.559 --> 00:10:49.960 by twenty three, she's up by eighteen nineteen. California is 170 00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:50.559 the same. 171 00:10:50.399 --> 00:10:54.039 Thing that doesn't help Trump in the sense that a 172 00:10:54.120 --> 00:10:57.000 loss is a loss. You lose New York by ten votes, 173 00:10:57.519 --> 00:11:00.519 you lose the electoral college votes. He's probably written those 174 00:11:00.559 --> 00:11:01.320 off anyway. 175 00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:03.960 He's yeah, But I'm talking about the national vote, and 176 00:11:04.000 --> 00:11:06.720 that at three and a half percent, three percent, some 177 00:11:06.879 --> 00:11:11.200 of that is inflated in that in previous elections, like Clinton, 178 00:11:11.399 --> 00:11:14.440 she ran up her numbers in New York and California 179 00:11:15.519 --> 00:11:17.320 and she was able to win by you know, millions 180 00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:20.519 of votes. I don't see Harris doing it that way, 181 00:11:20.600 --> 00:11:23.720 and so I do see her having a pathway even 182 00:11:23.759 --> 00:11:27.399 at two and a half to three percent, But I 183 00:11:27.399 --> 00:11:29.759 think it would be more difficult for her if Trump 184 00:11:29.840 --> 00:11:32.720 is able to take the lead nationally, for her to 185 00:11:32.759 --> 00:11:35.519 be able to win the electoral college. 186 00:11:35.840 --> 00:11:39.080 So you think it's a tougher task for Harris to 187 00:11:39.200 --> 00:11:44.559 lose the popular vote and somehow get lucky and win 188 00:11:44.639 --> 00:11:47.159 with the electric call. Its an easier task for Trump 189 00:11:47.559 --> 00:11:52.279 because of the big votes in some big states like Illinois, 190 00:11:52.440 --> 00:11:56.639 New York, Massachusetts, and the biggest sop them all California, 191 00:11:56.720 --> 00:11:59.320 and you can throw in Oregon, in Washington and a 192 00:11:59.360 --> 00:12:01.159 few other states that are that are going to be 193 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:08.120 big Democratic victories no matter what. Sure, yeah, Maryland would 194 00:12:08.120 --> 00:12:12.679 be category where you know, yeah, hey, if you'll stick 195 00:12:12.720 --> 00:12:15.120 with me for one more segment, I'd love to just 196 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:17.159 pick your brain a little bit here. I know we're 197 00:12:17.200 --> 00:12:20.399 not calling the winner here. And I'd also like to 198 00:12:20.440 --> 00:12:24.519 invite callers if they'd like to ask a question, a 199 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:28.919 legitimate question. As I keep telling my listeners, listeners think 200 00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:32.120 that polsters are not on the level. Polsters are the 201 00:12:32.120 --> 00:12:35.759 most on the level people in America because they are 202 00:12:36.000 --> 00:12:38.799 on the line. You can tell your friends you think 203 00:12:38.840 --> 00:12:41.000 that Trump's gonna win, or you think Harris is gonna win. 204 00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:43.480 No one's gonna know you were right or wrong except 205 00:12:43.480 --> 00:12:51.000 your friends. If if either Spencer or day Palliologus or 206 00:12:51.080 --> 00:12:57.080 John Zogby hit this precisely, that that makes their reputation. 207 00:12:57.279 --> 00:13:00.679 They want to be precise, They want to be exact. 208 00:13:00.840 --> 00:13:03.600 I mean, at least that's that's my fervent belief, and 209 00:13:03.639 --> 00:13:05.320 I think Spencer will back me up on it. We'll 210 00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:07.039 find out on the other side of the break if 211 00:13:07.080 --> 00:13:09.639 you like to join the conversation. The state of the race, 212 00:13:09.679 --> 00:13:11.279 how do you view it? Six one, seven, two, five, 213 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:14.399 four ten, thirty six one seven, nine, three one ten thirty. 214 00:13:14.879 --> 00:13:15.799 Let's have some fun. 215 00:13:17.960 --> 00:13:20.960 Now back to Dan ray Line from the Window World 216 00:13:21.080 --> 00:13:24.200 Light Side Studios on w b Z News Radio. 217 00:13:26.200 --> 00:13:30.519 My guest is Spencer Kimball, Emerson College pollster, one of 218 00:13:30.559 --> 00:13:35.240 the big significant polling organizations in the country. Let me 219 00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:37.320 run through a couple of states here with you, just 220 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:40.080 for the fun of it, and I guess I'm looking 221 00:13:40.200 --> 00:13:44.559 at five thirty eight, which again is a composite judgment. 222 00:13:44.879 --> 00:13:50.360 So they're saying right now, Nevada very close, one point 223 00:13:50.399 --> 00:13:55.240 one percent for the Democrats, Pennsylvania point three percent, point 224 00:13:55.279 --> 00:13:57.120 three of one percent, and it was a third of 225 00:13:57.159 --> 00:14:04.320 one percent for Trump. Michigan Democrats by point oh four percent, 226 00:14:04.799 --> 00:14:10.440 Wisconsin Democrat by by half of one percent, North Carolina 227 00:14:12.080 --> 00:14:15.559 Trump by one point one, Georgia Trump by one point six, 228 00:14:16.000 --> 00:14:20.919 Arizona Trump by one point nine. Those all sound pretty 229 00:14:20.960 --> 00:14:23.279 right to you as of this moment in time. 230 00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:28.679 Uh yeah, yeah, I mean in the aggregate, those are 231 00:14:29.080 --> 00:14:30.519 the numbers that we're saying. 232 00:14:30.960 --> 00:14:35.200 Okay, is there is there a state out there? Give me, 233 00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:38.080 give me two or three states that you think could 234 00:14:38.159 --> 00:14:42.919 surprise everyone knows. Massachusetts will be won by Kamala Harris. 235 00:14:43.080 --> 00:14:45.600 We can call that right now California and New York 236 00:14:46.039 --> 00:14:50.840 trumpel Trump will win Florida, assumed trumpel win Texas. There's 237 00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:53.159 any state out there that you're looking at and saying, hmm, 238 00:14:53.320 --> 00:14:56.960 something's going on here this state. I'm looking at it, 239 00:14:57.039 --> 00:14:59.559 and I'm thinking that it might actually be a surprise 240 00:14:59.799 --> 00:15:02.320 on election nights. 241 00:15:03.399 --> 00:15:06.840 Well, obviously, we have the seven swing states, as you mentioned, 242 00:15:07.240 --> 00:15:10.799 you have your Florida and Texas. That is kind of 243 00:15:10.799 --> 00:15:13.240 off the board. We see those as you know, a 244 00:15:13.240 --> 00:15:16.960 plus five or greater for the Republicans. You got the 245 00:15:17.039 --> 00:15:23.240 three additional states of Minnesota, Virginia, in New Hampshire, but 246 00:15:23.360 --> 00:15:27.480 those states have generally been you know, five points plus 247 00:15:27.519 --> 00:15:33.559 for the Democrats. Though Trump made New Hampshire really close 248 00:15:33.600 --> 00:15:36.320 in twenty sixteen, it bounced back towards the Dems in 249 00:15:36.360 --> 00:15:39.840 twenty twenty, and we haven't seen that that bounced back 250 00:15:39.919 --> 00:15:44.399 yet for Trump in twenty four But then you got 251 00:15:44.440 --> 00:15:47.279 like maybe a state like New Mexico we were looking at, 252 00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:50.799 but that one still seems to be pretty strong being 253 00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:54.519 a border state. You know, with Arizona. We saw how 254 00:15:54.600 --> 00:15:57.799 Arizona is a little bit different on their issues, but 255 00:15:57.840 --> 00:16:03.480 not in New Mexico. That one seems pretty solid for 256 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.480 the Dems. And so you know, you've got the first, 257 00:16:06.559 --> 00:16:09.759 the third, the second district of Nebraska. You got the 258 00:16:10.279 --> 00:16:14.320 second district up in Maine. But those two also seem 259 00:16:15.440 --> 00:16:18.080 at least the second district in Maine seem more locked in. 260 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:23.679 If you watch the debates, it seems that that district 261 00:16:23.720 --> 00:16:26.039 is strong for the Republicans. We'll see if the Dems 262 00:16:26.080 --> 00:16:30.039 are able to hold that first, the second district of Nebraska. 263 00:16:30.159 --> 00:16:33.440 But unfortunately, I don't have, you know, like a magic 264 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:35.840 state that I say, yeah, no problem. 265 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:38.600 If you said, hey, here's one to watch, it's a 266 00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:43.799 long shot. But it's again. I guess the thing that 267 00:16:43.879 --> 00:16:48.399 I'm looking at here is I'm looking at Pennsylvania, and 268 00:16:48.440 --> 00:16:53.200 I'm thinking to myself, if Pennsylvania is the state that 269 00:16:53.240 --> 00:17:00.320 decides the election, and if Kamala Harris in retrospe do 270 00:17:00.399 --> 00:17:05.200 you think she is thinking that maybe the governor of 271 00:17:05.240 --> 00:17:08.079 Pennsylvania today might have been a better pick than the 272 00:17:08.079 --> 00:17:11.440 governor of Minnesota, both in terms of how they each 273 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:16.559 would have played and which state is probably would have 274 00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:20.200 gone democratic anyway, if you know what I'm saying, I. 275 00:17:20.160 --> 00:17:24.000 Do, Dan, and I think you raised two interesting points here. 276 00:17:24.319 --> 00:17:28.759 One is the logistics of a nineteen point electoral vote 277 00:17:28.839 --> 00:17:34.119 state in Pennsylvania, that Governor Shapiro is very popular and 278 00:17:34.480 --> 00:17:37.880 he wins that race. Now he runs against a weaker 279 00:17:38.079 --> 00:17:42.119 Republican candidate and wins by fifteen points, but he still 280 00:17:42.160 --> 00:17:45.160 wins by fifteen points. He's still very popular in the state, 281 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:47.839 and to your point, he may have been a pretty 282 00:17:47.839 --> 00:17:50.960 strong asset on the ticket. But then I think the 283 00:17:51.000 --> 00:17:54.319 other part is not just the logistics of the state 284 00:17:54.359 --> 00:17:57.839 and the nineteen electoral votes, but that vice presidential debate 285 00:17:58.599 --> 00:18:02.880 seemed to be a momentum stopper and shifter in this race. 286 00:18:03.000 --> 00:18:07.400 And it wasn't a major change, but Harris had performed 287 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:10.279 well in that first presidential debate or in the only 288 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:15.160 presidential debate, and even though the polls were still floating 289 00:18:15.200 --> 00:18:17.759 a little bit towards Trump, what we've seen in the 290 00:18:17.839 --> 00:18:20.839 last two to three weeks since the vice presidential debate 291 00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:25.519 was Trump picking up a little bit more ground than that, 292 00:18:26.039 --> 00:18:30.400 suggesting that perhaps Shapiro's would have been a different type 293 00:18:30.400 --> 00:18:36.759 of debater against Vance, and maybe would have presented it 294 00:18:36.920 --> 00:18:41.759 a little bit differently than the way Walls came out 295 00:18:41.839 --> 00:18:45.480 a little bit more folksy. Remember you know, we're talking 296 00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:49.960 about an attorney general versus a governor. Well, Shapiro's a 297 00:18:49.960 --> 00:18:54.079 governor now too, but at the time, so it's interesting 298 00:18:54.119 --> 00:18:58.119 to think about those scenarios. But of course, you know, 299 00:18:58.200 --> 00:19:02.599 at the start walls a lot of positive media, there 300 00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:05.000 was a lot of energy there, and so it's hard 301 00:19:05.039 --> 00:19:08.599 to say how that would have come out if Shapiro's 302 00:19:08.640 --> 00:19:12.079 the nominee, does the progressive wing of the Democratic Party 303 00:19:12.880 --> 00:19:16.400 crater at that moment and say we're out and that 304 00:19:16.440 --> 00:19:18.599 would have been a problem for Harris as well. So 305 00:19:19.759 --> 00:19:22.160 hard to tell how that would have played. But obviously 306 00:19:22.240 --> 00:19:23.880 we'll find out in a couple of weeks. 307 00:19:24.400 --> 00:19:28.680 I would think, So how about this. We're ten thirty. 308 00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:30.799 I got to take a newscast. I got some callers. 309 00:19:31.759 --> 00:19:35.759 You want to talk to the callers? Sure, of course, Okay, 310 00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:40.200 I know you'd be I never would take an assumption, 311 00:19:40.319 --> 00:19:43.559 make an assumption. So El and Dave, I got you 312 00:19:43.599 --> 00:19:45.599 coming up, and if you want to jump on board 313 00:19:45.599 --> 00:19:50.920 and talk with Spencer Kimball sixty six seven, nine thirty. 314 00:19:51.400 --> 00:19:55.039 The State of the Race the twenty twenty four presidential race. 315 00:19:55.880 --> 00:19:59.599 Two weeks from right now, two weeks from right now, 316 00:20:00.279 --> 00:20:04.400 conceivably I'm not saying we will, but it's conceivable that 317 00:20:04.519 --> 00:20:07.480 if two weeks from right now, Pennsylvania has gone a 318 00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:10.640 little more strongly than maybe and is called for Harris 319 00:20:10.759 --> 00:20:14.680 or Trump, that could be the key that unlocks the 320 00:20:14.720 --> 00:20:17.920 electoral College. So it's not inconceivable that the race could 321 00:20:17.920 --> 00:20:19.519 be over. I don't think it will be at this 322 00:20:19.640 --> 00:20:22.319 point in the evening because I think that there will 323 00:20:22.359 --> 00:20:23.880 be too long to go and it may end up 324 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:27.640 with Nevada and Arizona being the case the states that decide. 325 00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:31.200 But either way, we are now within two weeks. Uh 326 00:20:31.440 --> 00:20:35.359 within we are within two weeks less, two and a 327 00:20:35.400 --> 00:20:40.160 half hours of the polls in Massachusetts, up a down 328 00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:44.119 the East Coast, clothing that's all where this it's two 329 00:20:44.200 --> 00:20:46.279 weeks bo Just think of it like that, two weeks 330 00:20:46.319 --> 00:20:48.640 is not a long time. Back on Night Side right 331 00:20:48.680 --> 00:20:54.319 after this with Spencer Kimball, Polar Extraordinary from Emerson College. 332 00:20:55.000 --> 00:21:03.000 Night Side with Dan Ray on Boston's News. 333 00:21:01.279 --> 00:21:04.319 My guest is Spencer Kimball. Spencer, I'm looking at some 334 00:21:05.359 --> 00:21:10.400 recent polls here. Your most recent poll was October fourteenth 335 00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:16.400 to the eighteenth. You had it Harris by one. So 336 00:21:16.640 --> 00:21:18.720 have you been are you back in the field now 337 00:21:20.279 --> 00:21:22.039 or when are you back in the field nationally? That 338 00:21:22.119 --> 00:21:24.359 was a USA Today poll. 339 00:21:24.640 --> 00:21:28.440 Yeah, So our national polls we go in right now 340 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:31.599 each week, and so we went back in the field tonight. 341 00:21:32.480 --> 00:21:35.599 We'll have results back on Friday, and we'll track the 342 00:21:35.680 --> 00:21:39.000 race this week and next week going into the election. 343 00:21:39.680 --> 00:21:42.119 You got some polls coming up tomorrow on state races. 344 00:21:43.279 --> 00:21:46.480 We do, we do. We've been taking a look, as 345 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:50.640 we previously mentioned, Florida and Texas. Those are two races 346 00:21:50.680 --> 00:21:53.519 that folks have been talking about. So we took a 347 00:21:53.519 --> 00:21:57.359 look down in Florida. Last time we were there. Rick Scott, 348 00:21:57.400 --> 00:22:01.359 the Senator, had a small lead. It looks like he's 349 00:22:01.400 --> 00:22:06.039 extended that lead now to about four or five points. 350 00:22:06.599 --> 00:22:10.200 Trump likewise had a four or five point lead. Remember 351 00:22:10.240 --> 00:22:13.039 that's a state he wins by about three points. We 352 00:22:13.079 --> 00:22:17.880 have him up about seven or eight when you take 353 00:22:17.920 --> 00:22:20.839 a look at where Remember DeSantis wins this state by 354 00:22:20.920 --> 00:22:25.640 nineteen in the midterms, So Florida will be interesting to watch. 355 00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:29.079 So those two are coming out, and then we've got 356 00:22:29.880 --> 00:22:35.279 South Dakota. I don't know if we've got much There 357 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:37.880 a lot of ballot initiatives out there. Trump is doing 358 00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:40.960 about what he did before. And then we'll get into 359 00:22:41.000 --> 00:22:45.440 some battleground states. Oh, we got Maryland coming. That's the 360 00:22:45.519 --> 00:22:52.119 Larry Hogan race versus alsl Brooks. Hogan was competitive there 361 00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:55.599 last time. We polled in the eight point range, but 362 00:22:55.799 --> 00:22:58.960 now it looks like it's jumped to double digits. Remember 363 00:22:58.960 --> 00:23:01.440 that's a state Massachusetts very much. 364 00:23:01.480 --> 00:23:05.079 It's almost a mirror mirror reflection. I don't think there's 365 00:23:05.119 --> 00:23:08.000 one member of the Congression of Delegation down there who's anything. 366 00:23:08.160 --> 00:23:11.880 They're all Democrats, if I'm not mistaken. What about Texas, 367 00:23:10.920 --> 00:23:14.160 that's a closer race than people would have expected. 368 00:23:15.200 --> 00:23:17.960 Well, Texas was a state where Trump wins by I 369 00:23:18.000 --> 00:23:20.039 think it was like eight or nine and twenty sixteen, 370 00:23:20.119 --> 00:23:22.039 and then it drops down to about five and a 371 00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:26.079 half in twenty twenty. We have it bouncing back up 372 00:23:26.119 --> 00:23:29.039 for Trump. But the Senate race is very competitive with 373 00:23:29.160 --> 00:23:33.680 Cruise and Colin Alrid. You know, it's a race where 374 00:23:34.640 --> 00:23:38.640 people don't necessarily know the Democrat, but they're voting against Cruise, 375 00:23:38.720 --> 00:23:41.160 and so that's a difficult place for the incumbent to 376 00:23:41.200 --> 00:23:44.640 be in. That one's still very close and we'll be 377 00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:48.079 exciting to watch. But the Senate overall is most likely 378 00:23:48.119 --> 00:23:51.759 going to go towards the Republicans based on West Virginia. 379 00:23:52.200 --> 00:23:54.920 And then later this week we'll have a Montana pole 380 00:23:55.400 --> 00:23:58.279 with John Tester and Chiehi the Republican. 381 00:23:58.920 --> 00:24:01.279 You watch, you'll hot you got to watch Ohio too, 382 00:24:01.319 --> 00:24:02.160 as I understand it. 383 00:24:02.599 --> 00:24:09.680 Oh yeah, Bernie Moreno, the Trump endorsed candidate. He came 384 00:24:09.720 --> 00:24:12.759 out of kind of nowhere to get that nomination based 385 00:24:12.799 --> 00:24:15.960 on Trump's endorsement. And now shared Brown was a very 386 00:24:16.000 --> 00:24:19.960 popular Democrat. You know, we've had him up. But here's 387 00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:22.519 how polling works. When you're the incumbent, you got to 388 00:24:22.559 --> 00:24:25.279 get over at fifty percent, and so when you're sticking 389 00:24:25.319 --> 00:24:28.200 at forty seven eight percent, and that's where Ted cruises 390 00:24:28.240 --> 00:24:31.720 as well, that's that's a sign of concern because that 391 00:24:31.880 --> 00:24:34.880 means voters are still looking around and potentially going to 392 00:24:34.920 --> 00:24:35.880 vote for your opponent. 393 00:24:36.359 --> 00:24:38.319 Well, let's get um, let's get a couple of callers 394 00:24:38.319 --> 00:24:40.680 in here, going to go to L in Saugas. L 395 00:24:40.839 --> 00:24:43.680 hope you have a good question for Spencer Kimball or 396 00:24:43.720 --> 00:24:44.319 an observation. 397 00:24:44.440 --> 00:24:47.200 Go ahead, L all right, Just like there's a thing 398 00:24:47.319 --> 00:24:51.319 called tax avoidance, and then this tax evasion, you have 399 00:24:51.440 --> 00:24:56.839 election influencers, and then you cross the line into election interference. 400 00:24:57.119 --> 00:25:00.799 And I believe the pollsters are guilty of election interference 401 00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:04.119