WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.720 --> 00:00:05.440 Welcome to Mortgage Talk with Mark harriston, the program that 2 00:00:05.519 --> 00:00:09.000 not only talks about mortgages, taxes, and interest rates, but 3 00:00:09.080 --> 00:00:12.199 Mark and his guest talk real estate trends and you're home. 4 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:15.039 He also answers your mortgage questions to help you make 5 00:00:15.080 --> 00:00:17.839 the right financing or refinancing decisions. 6 00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:20.280 Now here's Mark Hairston. 7 00:00:20.320 --> 00:00:24.280 Happy today, everybody, and welcome back to the show Mortgage 8 00:00:24.280 --> 00:00:27.199 Talk with Mark. I'm really excited to have to introduce 9 00:00:27.320 --> 00:00:29.800 my guest today, and here's a couple of reasons why. 10 00:00:30.160 --> 00:00:33.159 First of all, he's a really a smart guy. Second 11 00:00:33.200 --> 00:00:34.960 of all, I've had this show about two years and 12 00:00:35.000 --> 00:00:38.399 he was one of my first guests on about the 13 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.960 summer of twenty twenty three. As I recall, we had 14 00:00:41.960 --> 00:00:45.240 a great conversation. One thing I love about Chris and 15 00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:48.079 you'll meet him just a second, is he knows how 16 00:00:48.079 --> 00:00:50.000 to speak. I don't have to drag stuff out of him. 17 00:00:50.039 --> 00:00:52.240 So if you're look at the buyer sell reroll estate 18 00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:54.960 this year in Austin, Texas or Central Texas, you really 19 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:57.600 want to stay tuned and listen to my buddies, Chris Jacobs, 20 00:00:57.600 --> 00:00:59.759 who let's introduce yourself a little bit and tell us 21 00:01:00.320 --> 00:01:01.119 that's your background. 22 00:01:01.560 --> 00:01:05.000 Hey, Mark, Chris Jacobs. I'm with Portico Real Estate. Been 23 00:01:05.040 --> 00:01:08.120 a real estate agent now about eighteen years. It just 24 00:01:08.120 --> 00:01:14.439 renewed my license in March. Been an active investor in 25 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:18.040 real estate consultant almost the entire eighteen years. I found 26 00:01:18.079 --> 00:01:20.920 my niche in real estate where I work predominantly with 27 00:01:20.959 --> 00:01:24.599 investors and commercial and you know, we placed a lot 28 00:01:24.640 --> 00:01:27.359 of money and manage a lot of portfolios and help 29 00:01:27.439 --> 00:01:30.400 clients make those strategic decisions on where to invest and 30 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:31.640 how to invest and love. 31 00:01:31.480 --> 00:01:32.760 It what to look for. I love it, you know 32 00:01:32.799 --> 00:01:34.799 because you're coming from a little bit different angle than 33 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:38.040 most of my friends who are in traditional real estate 34 00:01:38.079 --> 00:01:40.879 where they're broken and then selling properties to individuals years 35 00:01:41.040 --> 00:01:41.959 more of a portfolio. 36 00:01:42.319 --> 00:01:45.280 Oh look, absolutely, I've got I've got a couple of investors. 37 00:01:45.280 --> 00:01:48.159 We holistically sit down, look at hey, what do we have, 38 00:01:48.239 --> 00:01:53.239 how properties performing, dispositioning assets, reacquiring assets, kind of going 39 00:01:53.239 --> 00:01:53.599 through those. 40 00:01:53.599 --> 00:01:54.560 We've actually I've got. 41 00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:57.239 Clients that have properties they have never seen. Wow, because 42 00:01:57.239 --> 00:02:00.719 it's it's spreadsheets. We live in Boston, p and ls exactly, 43 00:02:00.760 --> 00:02:01.760 and that's what we live by. 44 00:02:01.840 --> 00:02:04.920 And you originally hail from Del Rio, from del Rio, Texas. Yes, sir, 45 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:06.000 let's hear a Texas boy. 46 00:02:06.159 --> 00:02:06.560 Yes, sir. 47 00:02:06.719 --> 00:02:08.719 You know that market very well down there too. I do. 48 00:02:08.879 --> 00:02:12.199 Actually I watched that. I watched the farming ranch down 49 00:02:12.199 --> 00:02:14.400 there quite a bit, and we were landowners down that 50 00:02:14.439 --> 00:02:17.719 way and got some places out in West Texas far 51 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:20.280 further beyond that now buying that. We love to get 52 00:02:20.319 --> 00:02:20.719 away too. 53 00:02:20.879 --> 00:02:23.400 What's been this next twenty minutes or so we have 54 00:02:23.520 --> 00:02:26.159 on sort of central Texas? What's er here? Because, like 55 00:02:26.599 --> 00:02:28.280 I said, you were here a couple of years ago, 56 00:02:29.000 --> 00:02:31.039 and things I want to talk about, how things have 57 00:02:31.080 --> 00:02:34.120 shifted and where you see things today in the future. 58 00:02:34.360 --> 00:02:36.960 Yeah, so we were two years ago, we were dealing 59 00:02:37.000 --> 00:02:41.560 with I like to use we're diluting values. Values were decreasing, 60 00:02:42.680 --> 00:02:45.319 and you know, consumerism was started. 61 00:02:45.360 --> 00:02:46.560 What around the summer of twenty two. 62 00:02:47.039 --> 00:02:51.400 Yeah, I want to say the printing presses were turned 63 00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:53.639 off by the FED and March effectively of twenty twenty 64 00:02:53.639 --> 00:02:55.759 two where they quit buying all the mortgage backed securities. 65 00:02:56.159 --> 00:02:59.199 I remember the day. Yeah, it was a sad day. 66 00:02:59.240 --> 00:03:01.000 It was a sad day. Watch rates go from the 67 00:03:01.080 --> 00:03:03.919 low threes to four and a half overnight, right right, 68 00:03:04.080 --> 00:03:06.199 and of course that sends shocked ways through the market. 69 00:03:07.639 --> 00:03:10.240 Mortgages cost it. It's about one points, about twelve percent 70 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:12.719 more on your desk servicing thereabouts. 71 00:03:13.159 --> 00:03:15.199 So let's talk about that for a minute. One percent 72 00:03:15.599 --> 00:03:17.759 of interest rate on a mortgage is about twelve percent 73 00:03:17.759 --> 00:03:18.879 buying power on that property. 74 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:21.159 Correct, No, no, no, Like if you let's just say, if 75 00:03:21.199 --> 00:03:23.599 your mortgage was going to be my understanding, so correct 76 00:03:23.639 --> 00:03:24.879 me if I'm wrong. If the mortgage is going to 77 00:03:24.879 --> 00:03:27.479 be two thousand dollars and mortgage rates go up a point, 78 00:03:27.520 --> 00:03:33.639 that mortgage effectively now would be about twenty fifty fifty 79 00:03:33.680 --> 00:03:34.520 exactly right. 80 00:03:34.479 --> 00:03:37.439 Yeah, so about twelve percent decreases you're buying power. 81 00:03:37.240 --> 00:03:41.479 Decreases buying power. And then when we watch rates climb 82 00:03:41.560 --> 00:03:45.199 up to seven or higher or higher, we you know, 83 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:48.960 we all were like because we had been addicted to 84 00:03:49.240 --> 00:03:51.680 cheap credit right the last ten years, and it was 85 00:03:51.719 --> 00:03:53.080 really all that too, I'll be honest. 86 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:54.680 So was I. 87 00:03:54.520 --> 00:03:59.840 I bought a car last year and tiers zero credit 88 00:04:00.759 --> 00:04:04.159 was seventy nine wow at Ford Motor Credit. 89 00:04:04.199 --> 00:04:06.159 And I was just like, you know, what happened to 90 00:04:06.159 --> 00:04:06.800 a point nine? 91 00:04:07.439 --> 00:04:09.599 What happened to point nine? And I was I kind 92 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:11.199 of paused. I took I took pause because you know, 93 00:04:11.240 --> 00:04:13.400 I bought my first car with a loan in nineteen 94 00:04:13.520 --> 00:04:16.560 ninety three, and my rate was six and a half 95 00:04:17.399 --> 00:04:20.319 in nineteen ninety three. And I'm looking at going. I 96 00:04:20.399 --> 00:04:22.800 was a kid at eighteen, right here, I am a 97 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:25.879 full grown adult right with paying a premium, paying a 98 00:04:25.920 --> 00:04:27.199 premium compared to what I'm used to. 99 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:29.639 So well, I just bought a brand new Ford. Uh 100 00:04:29.720 --> 00:04:33.879 not four. I bought a Ram pickup truck this weekend. Okay, 101 00:04:34.000 --> 00:04:36.160 you know mine's five point six four. So there you 102 00:04:36.199 --> 00:04:36.439 have it. 103 00:04:36.519 --> 00:04:39.480 Oh dude, there we go, they're coming down. Ford introduced 104 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:41.519 private Sorry we got on a tangent with cars here 105 00:04:41.560 --> 00:04:41.920 for get that. 106 00:04:42.040 --> 00:04:42.240 Yeah. 107 00:04:42.279 --> 00:04:46.920 So yeah, So basically, let's pivot back. So rates were 108 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:50.040 kind of in a purgatory, and buyers weren't buying because 109 00:04:50.079 --> 00:04:53.199 things were more expensive. We watched prices decrease, So we 110 00:04:53.319 --> 00:04:55.560 have two metrics. Goldman Sacks had that article come out 111 00:04:55.560 --> 00:04:57.519 where he said Austin's going to lose twenty five percent 112 00:04:58.160 --> 00:04:58.720 of values? 113 00:04:58.800 --> 00:05:00.240 When was that so last year? God? 114 00:05:00.240 --> 00:05:03.040 That was twenty twenty two, twenty twenty two. It's spent 115 00:05:03.120 --> 00:05:05.720 some time, got it? So on a rolling thirty day 116 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:08.680 number because they didn't define how they were gonna lose 117 00:05:08.680 --> 00:05:10.879 twenty five percent. It was that story, the story of 118 00:05:10.879 --> 00:05:13.120 the leads, the story of the bleeds. Brandon Finial to 119 00:05:13.279 --> 00:05:14.920 tell you that what you're talking about, Beffini, he's the 120 00:05:14.920 --> 00:05:18.040 one who drilled that into my head. So we did 121 00:05:18.160 --> 00:05:20.240 drop twenty five percent from a. 122 00:05:20.079 --> 00:05:22.680 Thirty day peak value to a thirty. 123 00:05:22.439 --> 00:05:26.199 Day bottom value. But when we go look at it 124 00:05:26.199 --> 00:05:29.000 and over the last three years, during a three year period, yes, 125 00:05:29.079 --> 00:05:31.040 there was a there was a hot moment that those 126 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:33.120 two numbers did come into alignment and we did hit 127 00:05:33.160 --> 00:05:37.600 twenty five percent. But nobody cares about thirty day windows, right. 128 00:05:37.720 --> 00:05:39.879 What matters is what is the three hundred and sixty 129 00:05:39.879 --> 00:05:44.279 five day the seasonally adjusted numbers doing, and seasonally adjusted, 130 00:05:44.639 --> 00:05:48.160 we gave up about eleven percent of values in Central. 131 00:05:47.839 --> 00:05:48.839 Texas across the board. 132 00:05:48.839 --> 00:05:51.279 Across the board, it's just eleven percent. Now, I know 133 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:52.360 that's reasonable. 134 00:05:52.519 --> 00:05:54.199 I mean it's not a well if you think about 135 00:05:54.279 --> 00:05:55.720 rates that royal recession. 136 00:05:55.600 --> 00:05:58.519 No, no, and mortgage rates are up basically four points, 137 00:05:58.560 --> 00:06:00.160 so it cost you fifty percent more to buy at 138 00:06:00.199 --> 00:06:03.160 home if values only came down ten percent. So I 139 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:05.560 don't think there's that perfect crash everybody was waiting for. 140 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:08.639 But we have started to see and literally this is 141 00:06:08.759 --> 00:06:13.600 just materialized since February one. I do some regression analysis, 142 00:06:13.600 --> 00:06:17.120 we have some algorithms, and we are actually starting to 143 00:06:17.199 --> 00:06:21.720 see the forty five day seasonally adjusted line show some 144 00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:27.439 downward pricing pressure, still still surprisingly And I saw. 145 00:06:27.240 --> 00:06:29.240 That on one of your charts on Facebook. Yeah, and 146 00:06:29.279 --> 00:06:30.879 it was kind of what you were impressed. I gotta 147 00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:31.439 get back a hold of. 148 00:06:31.480 --> 00:06:33.399 Cross exactly, and I was just like, oh my god, 149 00:06:33.480 --> 00:06:35.800 here it is. Because I still didn't think for an 150 00:06:35.879 --> 00:06:39.120 investor perspective, it was a great time to buy. Yet 151 00:06:39.399 --> 00:06:40.920 it was more of the if you could find the 152 00:06:41.000 --> 00:06:43.920 right opportunities, it's a great time to buy it. Opportunities 153 00:06:44.120 --> 00:06:47.120 you don't pass up. And I'm looking at going. I 154 00:06:47.240 --> 00:06:50.399 really think Q three, late Q three, early Q four, 155 00:06:51.800 --> 00:06:54.720 that's when those sellers who weren't opportunity sellers are still 156 00:06:54.759 --> 00:06:59.879 in the marketplace, and those sellers truly we'll be ready 157 00:06:59.879 --> 00:07:00.639 to wheel and deal. 158 00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:01.079 Now. 159 00:07:01.160 --> 00:07:02.519 The question is is how do we wheel and deal 160 00:07:02.560 --> 00:07:04.079 and make it with everybody? Is it a wrap? 161 00:07:04.399 --> 00:07:05.839 Is a short sale? Is it? 162 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:06.879 What is it look like? 163 00:07:07.040 --> 00:07:08.560 I don't know about Q three this year. 164 00:07:08.560 --> 00:07:11.040 I'm talking about Q three, so I think we're early 165 00:07:11.120 --> 00:07:15.360 Q two. I'm thinking in sixteen weeks after this plays 166 00:07:15.399 --> 00:07:18.079 out that it may be buying season for investors. 167 00:07:18.480 --> 00:07:20.639 You think some of this depression we're failing right now 168 00:07:20.959 --> 00:07:26.720 is political, im from the markets being poy nervous about things. 169 00:07:26.759 --> 00:07:28.480 It feels like that to me, it does, And we 170 00:07:28.800 --> 00:07:30.600 talked about that, you know, kind of talked about the 171 00:07:30.959 --> 00:07:34.160 politics of where we're at. And you know what, I've 172 00:07:34.160 --> 00:07:36.800 been studying the market in Austin the entire time. Coming 173 00:07:36.839 --> 00:07:38.959 out of the semiconductor world, where I was a metals buyer, 174 00:07:39.079 --> 00:07:41.759 I had to track metal markets. We worked with hedge 175 00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:44.160 buying commodities. I'm just used to charts, and when I 176 00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:48.319 came into real estate, there was no real good charts. 177 00:07:48.439 --> 00:07:50.879 There was no real good metrics. Texas A and M 178 00:07:51.000 --> 00:07:53.000 does a great job with what they do, but they 179 00:07:53.040 --> 00:07:56.920 are reaction based metrics that come out forty five days 180 00:07:56.920 --> 00:07:59.759 after the fact, and I needed a data set that 181 00:08:00.240 --> 00:08:02.959 was more where's the market going? Because we live in 182 00:08:03.040 --> 00:08:05.519 today when we execute our tracks, that's exactly right. We 183 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:08.480 don't live in what happened forty five days ago. So 184 00:08:09.680 --> 00:08:13.879 everybody's like, it doesn't matter which party. I'm trying to 185 00:08:13.879 --> 00:08:16.639 be a little diplomatic here, it doesn't matter which party. 186 00:08:16.639 --> 00:08:19.240 It happens, like markets always get better after presidential elections. 187 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:21.800 Like president elections don't do a blip to any of 188 00:08:21.879 --> 00:08:24.279 these things. It's just rhetoric you like to spit out 189 00:08:24.319 --> 00:08:27.120 of your mouth because you don't may or may not 190 00:08:27.279 --> 00:08:28.959 like the party that was in power. 191 00:08:29.000 --> 00:08:30.000 That's right, And. 192 00:08:31.560 --> 00:08:32.840 I'm sitting here going, I don't think it's a go. 193 00:08:33.000 --> 00:08:35.240 I don't think the change of the presidency was going 194 00:08:35.320 --> 00:08:38.039 to cause any changes. But I do believe that with 195 00:08:38.360 --> 00:08:41.159 what's going on with Terras, what's going on with everything, 196 00:08:41.240 --> 00:08:45.279 that there is some chaos in the marketplace and it's 197 00:08:45.360 --> 00:08:49.279 causing institutional investors who consume our mortgage backed securities to 198 00:08:49.440 --> 00:08:53.320 be guarded, right, and we're still seeing those high yield spreads. 199 00:08:53.440 --> 00:08:54.279 Everybody's guarded. 200 00:08:54.320 --> 00:08:56.039 Everybody's guarded, and they're like, well, lend you the money, 201 00:08:56.039 --> 00:08:56.759 but it's going to cost you. 202 00:08:57.000 --> 00:08:57.200 Yeah. 203 00:08:57.600 --> 00:08:59.399 So I don't think that we're going to see I 204 00:08:59.440 --> 00:09:01.039 don't know what more rich are gonna do, but I 205 00:09:01.039 --> 00:09:04.000 don't think until we see that yield spread change between 206 00:09:04.039 --> 00:09:06.679 the ten year t built and thirty year fixed rate mortgage. 207 00:09:06.720 --> 00:09:08.840 We're going to be back to normal and we haven't 208 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:10.919 seen that in three years. So it doesn't mart which 209 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:11.960 administrations and. 210 00:09:12.000 --> 00:09:13.240 Power that needs to come down. 211 00:09:13.399 --> 00:09:16.600 It needs to come down because until that happens, we 212 00:09:16.679 --> 00:09:18.799 don't know what the market truly will bear, because, in 213 00:09:18.919 --> 00:09:22.679 my opinion, the investors have hazard pricing on mortgages right 214 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:24.759 now because their scared rates are going to drop. They 215 00:09:24.840 --> 00:09:27.799 got to make back all their money to generate those mortgages, 216 00:09:27.840 --> 00:09:30.679 so they frontload all the loans. But they've been front 217 00:09:30.679 --> 00:09:31.879 loan loads now for three years. 218 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:34.519 I know, tell me about it, and we're sitting here 219 00:09:34.519 --> 00:09:36.480 going it's like, give me a break. Yeah, loans all 220 00:09:36.519 --> 00:09:37.080 been front loaded. 221 00:09:37.080 --> 00:09:39.759 Because now guess what the mortgage backed security investors the 222 00:09:39.840 --> 00:09:42.759 generated loans in Q three of twenty twenty two are 223 00:09:42.840 --> 00:09:46.240 making super big profits. Oh sure, Now what happens? Are 224 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:47.919 they going to report that the Wall Street? And now 225 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:50.360 are they going to get addicted to the profit? So 226 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:52.519 are we going to see a fundamental shift in mortgage 227 00:09:52.519 --> 00:09:54.399 backed securities? So we're going to see a fundamental shift 228 00:09:54.440 --> 00:09:58.279 in home buying. I don't know these answers right well, 229 00:09:58.440 --> 00:09:59.000 time will tell. 230 00:09:59.159 --> 00:10:02.279 Time will tell based on your experience and your yeah, 231 00:10:02.519 --> 00:10:05.840 market knowledge and expertise, where do you see opportunities right now? 232 00:10:06.759 --> 00:10:08.600 You know, I'm in the residential space. 233 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:12.480 In the residential space, I I'm a firm believer. I'm 234 00:10:12.480 --> 00:10:13.720 buying central business districts. 235 00:10:14.320 --> 00:10:14.600 Okay. 236 00:10:14.720 --> 00:10:18.000 And there's some some theories and I'd be drawn a 237 00:10:18.039 --> 00:10:20.600 blank if I told you the books. But I always 238 00:10:20.639 --> 00:10:23.679 advise everybody to buy as close as you can to 239 00:10:23.759 --> 00:10:27.200 a central business district sixth in Congress. Buy as close 240 00:10:27.240 --> 00:10:29.480 as you can. You have pricing stability, that's pretty central. 241 00:10:29.600 --> 00:10:33.600 It's pretty central. The domain and domain the Tech corridor 242 00:10:33.720 --> 00:10:37.720 now one eighty three from from Cedar Park downward on 243 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:39.679 that oney three And I was, you know, I've got 244 00:10:39.919 --> 00:10:41.759 the cute little first time home buyers are twenty four 245 00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:45.159 years old. They'd be the third generation of this family. 246 00:10:45.159 --> 00:10:48.200 I've helped buy homes. So, you know, the first time 247 00:10:48.200 --> 00:10:50.480 home buyers, we all hold a special spot for them. 248 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:54.440 I love them because, yeah, they appreciate what's what's happening. 249 00:10:54.240 --> 00:10:56.759 Absolutely versus us older people. 250 00:10:56.559 --> 00:10:58.919 Who are I got to do that for you now, 251 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:00.679 I got to do what now. It always seems like 252 00:11:00.720 --> 00:11:03.519 my older clients complain about the mortgage loan process where 253 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:05.679 my younger clients are so appreciative. 254 00:11:05.720 --> 00:11:07.559 I know they'll do anything I get hold. I gotta 255 00:11:07.559 --> 00:11:08.080 do what. 256 00:11:08.120 --> 00:11:09.559 I got to write a letter? Sure, what letter do 257 00:11:09.600 --> 00:11:11.679 you need me? What do I have to explain? I've 258 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:14.559 read exactly. I'll get the novella out for you. It's there, 259 00:11:14.600 --> 00:11:17.120 it is, that's right, it's I missed my payment because 260 00:11:17.120 --> 00:11:19.360 I was on vacation. You know, you've had plenty of 261 00:11:19.399 --> 00:11:20.799 explanation letters over the years. 262 00:11:20.840 --> 00:11:21.879 I'm sure we. 263 00:11:21.879 --> 00:11:23.919 Don't do that much anymore, but still I had to 264 00:11:23.960 --> 00:11:26.159 write a letter about missing a credit card payment that 265 00:11:26.440 --> 00:11:28.799 you did. I did once I was on vacation. I 266 00:11:28.919 --> 00:11:32.080 missed it, missed it. It was paid thirty one days 267 00:11:32.120 --> 00:11:34.200 instead of thirty. If I'd caught it, it wouldn't have 268 00:11:34.279 --> 00:11:37.120 been days. A little bit the old days handering those letters, 269 00:11:37.159 --> 00:11:41.120 good lord. Yeah, so I think I think for first 270 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:42.919 time home buyers, you know, it's. 271 00:11:43.600 --> 00:11:45.600 But then we've got to deal with a phil affordability 272 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:48.679 Oh my gosh, yeah, business district. But yeah, but your 273 00:11:48.679 --> 00:11:51.279 opportunities are some people are going to be those are 274 00:11:51.440 --> 00:11:54.840 even as far as in this case gerald our temple, 275 00:11:54.960 --> 00:11:55.559 Oh my gosh. 276 00:11:55.720 --> 00:11:57.720 Yeah, people are moving out, So these first time home buyers, 277 00:11:57.759 --> 00:11:59.519 they were qualified at like three forty. 278 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:01.519 Yeah, it's not a lot of. 279 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:04.200 House in central Texas. No, in the five county area, 280 00:12:04.320 --> 00:12:07.639 being the Austin MS. More of a house though, Yeah 281 00:12:08.240 --> 00:12:09.720 it is. But I kind of looked at him and go, 282 00:12:10.039 --> 00:12:12.320 You've got to remember guys this, think of it this way. 283 00:12:12.360 --> 00:12:15.000 It's like, it's not your parents' house, right, that's right. 284 00:12:15.480 --> 00:12:17.879 It's not an apartment complex you're renting and has somebody 285 00:12:17.960 --> 00:12:22.120 above you and adjacent you or below you exactly, and 286 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:25.440 it's yours exactly. You get painted, you can landscape it, 287 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:28.559 land you can do whatever you want. At twenty four, 288 00:12:29.559 --> 00:12:33.200 you're buying what might be the appreciation window of an opportunity. 289 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:35.519 You have a lifetime in Central Texas, because if you 290 00:12:35.559 --> 00:12:38.879 wait till you're thirty five, you're gonna get less house. 291 00:12:39.080 --> 00:12:40.759 You wait till you're forty five, you're gonna get even 292 00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:41.200 less house. 293 00:12:41.320 --> 00:12:41.840 Right right. 294 00:12:41.960 --> 00:12:43.519 You know, if my wife and I hadn't bought our 295 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:48.759 first home together, and I'm just going to preach to 296 00:12:48.799 --> 00:12:52.720 a choir about brian buying, we bought April two thousand 297 00:12:52.720 --> 00:12:56.679 and five. We scraped every penny together. We had to 298 00:12:56.840 --> 00:12:59.519 get a home, and if we had not bought in 299 00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:03.120 East Austin on we were Caesar, Travis and Komal right 300 00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:03.639 down town. 301 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:04.559 Yeah, oh yeah. 302 00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:08.480 It was one hundred and eighty nine thousand dollars about 303 00:13:08.480 --> 00:13:11.879 it for I'm gonna thirty single single family home. About 304 00:13:11.879 --> 00:13:13.919 it from Christina Valdez, who's another agent in this town 305 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:16.200 that's been here forever. She was the listing agent, was 306 00:13:16.240 --> 00:13:18.480 her personal property she was selling. Christina and are good 307 00:13:18.480 --> 00:13:21.240 friends to this day, and we were so happy to 308 00:13:21.320 --> 00:13:24.559 be homeowners. Mark. We were in a thousand square feet 309 00:13:24.759 --> 00:13:26.600 oh wow, one bathroom. 310 00:13:26.840 --> 00:13:28.759 Wow, you know, just just two of you. 311 00:13:28.840 --> 00:13:30.480 Then it was just two of us and a dog. 312 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:32.480 And you know, we were on an eight thousand square 313 00:13:32.519 --> 00:13:34.639 foot lot in a little thousand square foot house. 314 00:13:34.720 --> 00:13:38.240 But it was ours exactly. My first one was nineteen 315 00:13:38.320 --> 00:13:40.799 ninety so I remember, yeah, oh yesterday it. 316 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:43.960 Was ours and we painted every wall of crazy color. 317 00:13:44.120 --> 00:13:46.399 We you know, we did everything we couldn't do. And 318 00:13:46.480 --> 00:13:48.960 we were young. Yeah, My wife was twenty seven, I 319 00:13:49.080 --> 00:13:52.320 was twenty nine, and had we not bought that first home, 320 00:13:53.000 --> 00:13:54.960 we wouldn't be living in Central Austin to this day. 321 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:58.320 I'm now over in Brentwood, you know, We've got a 322 00:13:58.399 --> 00:14:01.080 great twenty three hundred square foot home to nineteen fifty 323 00:14:01.080 --> 00:14:03.039 eight beautiful And you know. 324 00:14:04.120 --> 00:14:06.120 I couldn't agree more with you. And we talked about 325 00:14:06.159 --> 00:14:08.679 before the show that you think and I think this too, 326 00:14:08.799 --> 00:14:11.000 although I've been saying this for a little bit, that 327 00:14:11.120 --> 00:14:13.000 this is a good time to be buying now. I'm 328 00:14:13.039 --> 00:14:15.840 not trying to push anything on anybody because I don't 329 00:14:15.879 --> 00:14:18.080 really know exactly what's going to happen, but it seems 330 00:14:18.120 --> 00:14:21.200 to me the it's a perfect storm right now. So 331 00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:22.480 let's talk inventory. 332 00:14:22.720 --> 00:14:25.279 A lot of man we are at so inventory is 333 00:14:25.279 --> 00:14:29.519 a great question, great comment. There we are at yesterday 334 00:14:29.679 --> 00:14:34.759 eleven thousand plus active listings in central Texas. 335 00:14:35.679 --> 00:14:37.159 When you say central TEXTA, you talk about the. 336 00:14:37.120 --> 00:14:40.200 Troupe five county, the five county so to MSA technically 337 00:14:40.440 --> 00:14:42.919 to people who don't know, it's Travis County, Williams County, 338 00:14:43.000 --> 00:14:48.000 Hayes County, Cadwell and Bashtrump. Okay, that's our the statistical 339 00:14:48.120 --> 00:14:52.559 area that is Austin. Eleven thousand plus active listings. And 340 00:14:52.759 --> 00:14:54.919 you know what, we have more demand than we did 341 00:14:55.120 --> 00:14:57.360 last time we're at this point, which was July of 342 00:14:57.480 --> 00:15:01.320 twenty ten. But there's opportunity in there. 343 00:15:01.559 --> 00:15:04.159 Yes, you mentioned twenty ten earlier before the show. Yeah, 344 00:15:04.879 --> 00:15:07.759 which was the perfect time. Oh my gosh, we bought tons. 345 00:15:07.799 --> 00:15:09.080 I worked with a lot of investors. 346 00:15:09.159 --> 00:15:11.080 We placed a lot of money in such tyxes at 347 00:15:11.080 --> 00:15:14.039 twenty twenty or twenty ten, and it got liquidated in 348 00:15:14.080 --> 00:15:16.960 twenty twenty at about a four hundred percent increase ten 349 00:15:17.039 --> 00:15:18.840 years in ten years, And I don't think we're going 350 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:22.799 to see another run like the pandemic. That was a unicorn. 351 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:25.720 That was a unicorn. Wet likely won't happen. 352 00:15:25.480 --> 00:15:28.519 Again, most likely will never happen again. But I want 353 00:15:28.559 --> 00:15:29.919 to step back a little bit and go why I 354 00:15:29.960 --> 00:15:32.000 think it's a great time in Austin to buy a 355 00:15:32.120 --> 00:15:36.960 home for investors looking for appreciation place, and for first 356 00:15:37.000 --> 00:15:40.200 time home buyers, and for any home buyer. If we 357 00:15:40.360 --> 00:15:43.440 go and look at most of the United States, homes 358 00:15:43.480 --> 00:15:47.360 are selling for what they did during the pandemic. That's 359 00:15:47.440 --> 00:15:52.080 just there's very small interest. It's a nationwide and in Texas, 360 00:15:52.120 --> 00:15:54.360 if we like at Texas as a whole, homes are 361 00:15:54.399 --> 00:15:58.320 selling at peak pandemic pricing right now in the whole 362 00:15:58.360 --> 00:16:02.200 state of Texas. Now, real estate is local, it is 363 00:16:02.279 --> 00:16:02.799 not global. 364 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:05.799 That's right. You know, it is a hyper low micro cosm. 365 00:16:05.960 --> 00:16:07.679 It's a micro It can get to street to street 366 00:16:07.840 --> 00:16:09.639 even on what why. 367 00:16:09.559 --> 00:16:11.639 I don't get it, certainly neighborhod neighorhood. 368 00:16:11.200 --> 00:16:15.759 Neighorhood, neiborhod and street to streets. So something I really 369 00:16:15.840 --> 00:16:17.399 have just been digging in going this is why I 370 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:20.240 think Austin's gonna be a great appreciation play coming into 371 00:16:20.320 --> 00:16:22.080 Q three for investors, and I think it's gonna be 372 00:16:22.120 --> 00:16:24.240 great for first time home buyers who had the flexibility 373 00:16:24.279 --> 00:16:29.039 of time. Is Austin is trading ten percent to eleven 374 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:31.200 percent below pandemic. 375 00:16:30.840 --> 00:16:33.720 Values, if not a little bit more in some areas 376 00:16:33.879 --> 00:16:35.960 some areas, but but that's let's just use that. 377 00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:39.600 Yeah percent, Yeah, ten percent, got it. My neighborhoods probably 378 00:16:39.600 --> 00:16:42.240 fifteen to twenty in central Austin, which means there's neighborhoods 379 00:16:42.240 --> 00:16:44.080 that are five or six percent above. I live in 380 00:16:44.159 --> 00:16:47.360 Lakeway and that could be fifteen percent exactly. So one 381 00:16:47.399 --> 00:16:50.000 of the things that I'm really excited about is Dallas 382 00:16:50.440 --> 00:16:54.919 and Houston are trading at pandemic peak values. 383 00:16:55.200 --> 00:16:55.799 Unbelievable. 384 00:16:55.879 --> 00:16:58.759 Austin is not. San Antonio is not. 385 00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:02.840 Is it? We had such a high run during during COVID. 386 00:17:03.039 --> 00:17:06.279 I mean there's so many, there were so many people, 387 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:08.079 and I think what we've got right now on our 388 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:12.079 sale the people selling is you know what is I 389 00:17:12.119 --> 00:17:15.359 don't know the factual number, but I presume most mortgage 390 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:18.000 backed securities are a three to five year product for investors, 391 00:17:18.599 --> 00:17:21.640 just through the natural right just to say five years 392 00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:24.119 five years. So we're three years out of the pandemic. 393 00:17:24.200 --> 00:17:26.480 So that means people who moved here early on could 394 00:17:26.519 --> 00:17:28.839 be getting the bug for a new home, ye, or 395 00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:31.319 they're relocating in and out. My wife and I keep 396 00:17:31.319 --> 00:17:33.279 our home for an average of ten years. We don't 397 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:35.400 We don't move like some people. I've got friends who 398 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:36.519 move every three to five years. 399 00:17:36.640 --> 00:17:36.960 Like a car. 400 00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:41.200 It's like a car to exactly said exactly. I'm like, no, moving, 401 00:17:41.480 --> 00:17:44.440