Speaker 1: Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Cole. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. Canada US tariff standoff, legal basis and
Speaker 1: escalation mechanics. Trump has invoked a nineteenth century trade statute
Speaker 1: that hasn't been used as tariff authority in the modern era,
Speaker 1: and he's pointed it directly at Canada. The mechanism is
Speaker 1: Section thirty eight to the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. The
Speaker 1: White House is using it to justify fifty percent duties
Speaker 1: on twenty eight billion dollars worth of Canadian exports. The
Speaker 1: list covers alcohol, dairy, auto's, wood, cement, and yes, hockey sticks.
Speaker 1: The tariffs take effect in thirty days. That window is
Speaker 1: the negotiating space. Whether Canada uses it to talk or
Speaker 1: to retaliate is the live question right now. Here's what
Speaker 1: makes the legal move significant. The Canada US Mexico Agreement,
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty Free Trade Pact that replace NAFTA, isn't
Speaker 1: scheduled for renegotiation until twenty thirty six. Canada is already
Speaker 1: invoking CUSA violations to challenge the tariffs. The signal there
Speaker 1: is that Washington isn't waiting for the renegotiation window. It's
Speaker 1: using a pre cusa statutory authority to sidestep the framework entirely.
Speaker 1: That's not a minor procedural choice. Section thirty eight has
Speaker 1: never been the instrument of choice in the modern trade era.
Speaker 1: Using it now rewrites the playbook, at least unilaterally. The
Speaker 1: important distinction is between what Canada can do and what
Speaker 1: it's likely to do. Ontiia Premier doug Ford is pushing
Speaker 1: for a dollar for dollar response. Prime Minister Carney hasn't
Speaker 1: confirmed that approach. The thirty day window creates room to negotiate,
Speaker 1: but matching tariff on American exports with hit cross border
Speaker 1: supply chains in autos and agriculture hard on both sides.
Speaker 1: The trade off is real. Canada retaliates in signal strength
Speaker 1: but risks economic damage at home. Canada negotiates and may
Speaker 1: extract concessions, but appears to yield to a legally contested
Speaker 1: tariff threat. Meither path is clean. Here's the thing separate
Speaker 1: from the trade stand off. China's coast guard operations around
Speaker 1: Taiwan have escalated sharply. Fifty five Chinese government vessel sightings
Speaker 1: were recorded in June, up one hundred and twenty percent
Speaker 1: year over year. Several of those vessels are converted destroyers
Speaker 1: operating in pairs outside Taiwan's economic waters. Taiwan's Coast Guard
Speaker 1: has confirmed its now running drills that simulate supply line severance.
Speaker 1: The signal here is that Beijing isn't just probing, it's
Speaker 1: practicing converted naval assets with civilian designation, coordinated pair tactics
Speaker 1: merchant vessel pressure. That combination points to operational planning at
Speaker 1: a level of maturity that rehearsals don't typically reach without
Speaker 1: intent behind them. On the Iran front, a ten day
Speaker 1: ceasefire proposal from mediators has reopened what looked like a
Speaker 1: closed door. Brent crew dropped to eighty eight dollars and
Speaker 1: twenty six cents a barrel on the news. Markets are
Speaker 1: reading de escalation potential. The Pentagon is still running strikes.
Speaker 1: That's now ten consecutive attack waves since the conflict resumed
Speaker 1: after a one week ceasefire collapsed in late June. The
Speaker 1: gap between what mediators are proposing and what military operations
Speaker 1: are doing is the unresolved proof point. Trump has signaled
Speaker 1: willingness to negotiate when Iran is ready. Arambacked groups remain
Speaker 1: active three US troops have been killed in recent Iranian strikes,
Speaker 1: and democratic pressure to reverse course is growing. The ceasefi
Speaker 1: window may be real. Whether both signs can stop firing
Speaker 1: long enough to use it is a different question. Consider this,
Speaker 1: The thirty day Canadian tariff clock is the most immediate
Speaker 1: thing to track. Watch whether Ottawa responds with matching duties
Speaker 1: or opens formal CSM disputeunals. Either choice tells you something
Speaker 1: about how far this standoff is willing to go. On Taiwan,
Speaker 1: the metric that matters isn't vessel counts. It's whether converted
Speaker 1: NABAL assets start operating inside the economic zone rather than
Speaker 1: outside it. And on Iran, the test is simple, do
Speaker 1: strikes pause or do they continue through the proposed ceasefire window.
Speaker 1: The answer will tell you where the diplomacy here is
Speaker 1: real or decorative. Thanks for listening. This podcast was built
Speaker 1: using AI technology, a yes We production