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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Cole. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. Canada US tariff standoff, legal basis and

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<v Speaker 1>escalation mechanics. Trump has invoked a nineteenth century trade statute

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<v Speaker 1>that hasn't been used as tariff authority in the modern era,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's pointed it directly at Canada. The mechanism is

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<v Speaker 1>Section thirty eight to the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. The

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<v Speaker 1>White House is using it to justify fifty percent duties

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<v Speaker 1>on twenty eight billion dollars worth of Canadian exports. The

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<v Speaker 1>list covers alcohol, dairy, auto's, wood, cement, and yes, hockey sticks.

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<v Speaker 1>The tariffs take effect in thirty days. That window is

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiating space. Whether Canada uses it to talk or

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<v Speaker 1>to retaliate is the live question right now. Here's what

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<v Speaker 1>makes the legal move significant. The Canada US Mexico Agreement,

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty Free Trade Pact that replace NAFTA, isn't

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<v Speaker 1>scheduled for renegotiation until twenty thirty six. Canada is already

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<v Speaker 1>invoking CUSA violations to challenge the tariffs. The signal there

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<v Speaker 1>is that Washington isn't waiting for the renegotiation window. It's

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<v Speaker 1>using a pre cusa statutory authority to sidestep the framework entirely.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not a minor procedural choice. Section thirty eight has

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<v Speaker 1>never been the instrument of choice in the modern trade era.

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<v Speaker 1>Using it now rewrites the playbook, at least unilaterally. The

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<v Speaker 1>important distinction is between what Canada can do and what

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<v Speaker 1>it's likely to do. Ontiia Premier doug Ford is pushing

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<v Speaker 1>for a dollar for dollar response. Prime Minister Carney hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>confirmed that approach. The thirty day window creates room to negotiate,

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<v Speaker 1>but matching tariff on American exports with hit cross border

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<v Speaker 1>supply chains in autos and agriculture hard on both sides.

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<v Speaker 1>The trade off is real. Canada retaliates in signal strength

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<v Speaker 1>but risks economic damage at home. Canada negotiates and may

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<v Speaker 1>extract concessions, but appears to yield to a legally contested

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<v Speaker 1>tariff threat. Meither path is clean. Here's the thing separate

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<v Speaker 1>from the trade stand off. China's coast guard operations around

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan have escalated sharply. Fifty five Chinese government vessel sightings

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<v Speaker 1>were recorded in June, up one hundred and twenty percent

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<v Speaker 1>year over year. Several of those vessels are converted destroyers

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<v Speaker 1>operating in pairs outside Taiwan's economic waters. Taiwan's Coast Guard

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<v Speaker 1>has confirmed its now running drills that simulate supply line severance.

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<v Speaker 1>The signal here is that Beijing isn't just probing, it's

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<v Speaker 1>practicing converted naval assets with civilian designation, coordinated pair tactics

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<v Speaker 1>merchant vessel pressure. That combination points to operational planning at

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<v Speaker 1>a level of maturity that rehearsals don't typically reach without

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<v Speaker 1>intent behind them. On the Iran front, a ten day

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire proposal from mediators has reopened what looked like a

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<v Speaker 1>closed door. Brent crew dropped to eighty eight dollars and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six cents a barrel on the news. Markets are

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<v Speaker 1>reading de escalation potential. The Pentagon is still running strikes.

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<v Speaker 1>That's now ten consecutive attack waves since the conflict resumed

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<v Speaker 1>after a one week ceasefire collapsed in late June. The

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<v Speaker 1>gap between what mediators are proposing and what military operations

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<v Speaker 1>are doing is the unresolved proof point. Trump has signaled

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<v Speaker 1>willingness to negotiate when Iran is ready. Arambacked groups remain

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<v Speaker 1>active three US troops have been killed in recent Iranian strikes,

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<v Speaker 1>and democratic pressure to reverse course is growing. The ceasefi

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<v Speaker 1>window may be real. Whether both signs can stop firing

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<v Speaker 1>long enough to use it is a different question. Consider this,

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<v Speaker 1>The thirty day Canadian tariff clock is the most immediate

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<v Speaker 1>thing to track. Watch whether Ottawa responds with matching duties

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<v Speaker 1>or opens formal CSM disputeunals. Either choice tells you something

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<v Speaker 1>about how far this standoff is willing to go. On Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>the metric that matters isn't vessel counts. It's whether converted

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<v Speaker 1>NABAL assets start operating inside the economic zone rather than

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<v Speaker 1>outside it. And on Iran, the test is simple, do

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<v Speaker 1>strikes pause or do they continue through the proposed ceasefire window.

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<v Speaker 1>The answer will tell you where the diplomacy here is

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<v Speaker 1>real or decorative. Thanks for listening. This podcast was built

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<v Speaker 1>using AI technology, a yes We production