WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.759 --> 00:00:08.320 With Laurent's Segoland from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. 2 00:00:08.839 --> 00:00:12.919 This is Redefining Energy Today. On Redefining Energy, we're going 3 00:00:12.960 --> 00:00:16.079 to talk about wind, the state of the wind industry. 4 00:00:16.199 --> 00:00:22.199 And winners faced difficult yes recently, supply chain issues, technical issues, 5 00:00:22.839 --> 00:00:26.920 but despite that, it continues to grow. So it was 6 00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:31.239 probably time to get on the show. Ben Backwell, who 7 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:35.039 is the head of the Global Wind Energy Council, and 8 00:00:35.359 --> 00:00:39.719 he really has a view on everything that's happening from 9 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:44.000 China to Europe to America, and he was calling us 10 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:47.640 from benn where he is preparing. 11 00:00:47.280 --> 00:00:50.039 Cop Yeah, so why don't we bring him on the show? 12 00:00:50.920 --> 00:00:52.200 Ben, Welcome to the show. 13 00:00:52.560 --> 00:00:54.399 Good morning, Lauren, Marna Jareds. 14 00:00:54.679 --> 00:00:55.320 First question. 15 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:59.359 You've been leading the Global World Energy cancial for about 16 00:00:59.359 --> 00:01:02.439 seven years. What is the Global Wind Energy Council. 17 00:01:03.200 --> 00:01:07.400 So, the Global Wind Energy Council represents the private sector 18 00:01:07.680 --> 00:01:12.200 in the wind energy industry. So we represent the corporates 19 00:01:12.480 --> 00:01:18.000 which are manufacturers, developers, technology companies. We also represent the 20 00:01:18.040 --> 00:01:23.319 associations around the world, so the associations in Brazil, in Japan, 21 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:26.799 in South Africa, in the US and so on. So 22 00:01:26.840 --> 00:01:29.760 we're the voice of the wind industry, and we essentially 23 00:01:29.760 --> 00:01:32.439 talk to governments around wind energy and its benefit and 24 00:01:32.480 --> 00:01:35.400 why you should be doing wind. So that's what we're about, 25 00:01:35.480 --> 00:01:39.000 and we're really involved intensely in trying to develop new markets. 26 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:40.519 I mean that's always been our things that we were 27 00:01:40.519 --> 00:01:44.280 involved in the very early days of India, China, South Africa, Brazil. 28 00:01:44.959 --> 00:01:47.840 More recently we've been working in places like Vietnam and 29 00:01:47.840 --> 00:01:51.079 the Philippines. We work a lot on offshore wind now 30 00:01:51.159 --> 00:01:53.760 over the last five ten years to develop that market 31 00:01:53.760 --> 00:01:56.200 around the world. Yeah, we're out there telling the story 32 00:01:56.200 --> 00:01:58.159 for the wind industry and trying to develop the right 33 00:01:58.359 --> 00:02:00.680 regulation and policy around wind. 34 00:02:01.680 --> 00:02:03.680 Can we sort of maybe just to talk a little 35 00:02:03.719 --> 00:02:05.640 bit about the stage of the industry as you see 36 00:02:05.640 --> 00:02:06.400 it now, right. 37 00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:10.120 It's an interesting moment. So wind's been growing fast over 38 00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:12.639 twenty years, as you guys know, it's gone from being 39 00:02:12.639 --> 00:02:15.919 a very small, almost kind of hobby industry maybe thirty 40 00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:19.280 forty years ago to now a big global industry and 41 00:02:19.319 --> 00:02:22.599 it's still growing pretty fast. So we've reached one terrawa 42 00:02:23.120 --> 00:02:25.599 of wind energy around the world a couple of years ago. 43 00:02:25.919 --> 00:02:30.439 We're breaking records in terms of new installations and this 44 00:02:30.599 --> 00:02:33.719 year twenty twenty four. We think we've probably reached about 45 00:02:33.919 --> 00:02:38.000 one hundred and twenty gigawatts of installations this year, probably 46 00:02:38.039 --> 00:02:39.840 a bit more, maybe one hundred and forty. 47 00:02:40.039 --> 00:02:43.840 Sorry for our listeners. That's double what it was ten 48 00:02:43.919 --> 00:02:47.319 years ago. So it's remarkable because we hear our WIN 49 00:02:47.520 --> 00:02:51.639 is not working and no, guys, we've been doubling WIN. 50 00:02:51.719 --> 00:02:55.000 We've been doubling the past ten years. So this is 51 00:02:55.039 --> 00:02:58.000 a growing industry. And I want to go on the runt, 52 00:02:58.039 --> 00:02:59.599 but maybe I'll do the runt a bit later. 53 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:02.680 Just go on, Ben, I'm looking forward to the rank. 54 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:03.120 Lauren. 55 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:06.560 Well, yeah, we're on the trajectory i'd say of doubling, 56 00:03:06.919 --> 00:03:10.439 probably around twenty thirty twenty twenty thirty one mark. So 57 00:03:10.479 --> 00:03:12.759 that's the good news. You know, we're growing. I guess 58 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:15.520 the not so good news is we're not growing fast enough, 59 00:03:15.599 --> 00:03:18.400 both in terms of meeting the energy climate targets that 60 00:03:18.479 --> 00:03:20.840 countries have, but also in terms of playing our role 61 00:03:20.919 --> 00:03:23.360 within the transition. And maybe we can dig into that 62 00:03:23.960 --> 00:03:27.080 wind plays a really important role within the transition. It's 63 00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:29.759 not just about the giga what's installed, it's about the 64 00:03:29.879 --> 00:03:33.840 gigaw's produced by wind, and it's about the relatively high 65 00:03:33.919 --> 00:03:36.280 capacity factors that wind has compared to some of the 66 00:03:36.280 --> 00:03:38.719 other renewed energy sources. So wind is going to play 67 00:03:38.719 --> 00:03:41.199 a really important role in terms of the actually energy 68 00:03:41.319 --> 00:03:44.759 produced in the energy transition. And we're not going fast enough. 69 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:47.039 I guess the other challenge is that we're not growing 70 00:03:47.039 --> 00:03:49.919 in all the right places the right speed. If you 71 00:03:49.960 --> 00:03:52.280 look at maybe twenty twenty five that we're in at 72 00:03:52.319 --> 00:03:54.719 the moment, we could probably expect something maybe up to 73 00:03:54.719 --> 00:03:58.199 one hundred and fifty gigwatts of new installations, but probably 74 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:00.159 even up to one hundred giga's is going to me 75 00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:03.520 in China, China being by far the biggest market now, 76 00:04:03.800 --> 00:04:05.439 and that's not a bad thing, that's a good thing. 77 00:04:05.719 --> 00:04:07.199 So the challenge for us is we need to be 78 00:04:07.240 --> 00:04:10.240 going much faster everywhere else in the world. So you've 79 00:04:10.240 --> 00:04:12.439 got a few places are doing pretty well. You've got 80 00:04:12.439 --> 00:04:16.079 the kind of big markets China, the European Union, the US, 81 00:04:16.439 --> 00:04:18.120 up and down India. 82 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:19.319 You've got many. 83 00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:21.759 Other places where the progress is just way too slow. 84 00:04:22.399 --> 00:04:24.279 Can I ask you, if you're talking about the hundred giga, 85 00:04:24.279 --> 00:04:26.480 what's going to China? Right when you talk about that 86 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:30.480 fifty Gigawa's that's not going to China, and just how 87 00:04:30.519 --> 00:04:33.759 the various markets there are performing. You said, the European market, 88 00:04:33.759 --> 00:04:37.279 the US market, and then by the way, anything else 89 00:04:37.319 --> 00:04:39.480 in terms of sort of you know new markets that 90 00:04:39.560 --> 00:04:41.160 are coming up that you think, oh my god, it 91 00:04:41.160 --> 00:04:42.519 could be really exciting. 92 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:43.439 For on shore. 93 00:04:43.759 --> 00:04:47.639 What we're seeing now is India speeding up. Germany's doing 94 00:04:47.639 --> 00:04:50.639 really well now that they've reformed the planning laws, the 95 00:04:50.759 --> 00:04:53.240 UK is coming back, and there's also place like the 96 00:04:53.240 --> 00:04:56.360 Middle East now right which are completely new markets. And 97 00:04:56.600 --> 00:04:58.720 we're talking about places like Egypt. We're also talking about 98 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:02.360 Saudi becoming a a pretty important market. You've also got 99 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:04.720 places like Central Asia now that are doing big on 100 00:05:04.879 --> 00:05:07.560 your wind projects. And then you've got offshore, which is 101 00:05:07.600 --> 00:05:10.240 growing faster than the average of wind as a whole. 102 00:05:10.720 --> 00:05:14.600 And there you've got, on top of the European Union, China, UK, 103 00:05:15.240 --> 00:05:20.199 you've also got these places now like Japan, Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, 104 00:05:20.279 --> 00:05:22.920 all of which now have big off your wind targets 105 00:05:22.920 --> 00:05:26.240 and are trying to implement. So there's good new areas 106 00:05:26.240 --> 00:05:27.519 of growth coming as well. 107 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:31.040 Okay, can I start my rant, guys. 108 00:05:30.920 --> 00:05:32.240 Yeah, go go ahead of the rant. 109 00:05:32.279 --> 00:05:32.720 Let's hear it. 110 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:36.600 Okay, So my rant is the following. If there was 111 00:05:36.680 --> 00:05:39.639 no wind industry, basically we would need. 112 00:05:39.680 --> 00:05:40.639 Two more Qatar. 113 00:05:41.680 --> 00:05:45.680 The number of attacks that this industry has been subject 114 00:05:45.720 --> 00:05:49.639 to were a victim of a cultural war from the 115 00:05:49.759 --> 00:05:54.399 extreme right. Those people who don't know nothing. We see 116 00:05:54.399 --> 00:05:57.759 them in the press in Europe. In the US, they're 117 00:05:57.839 --> 00:06:01.879 supported by the fascify industry, sometimes even the nuclear lobby. 118 00:06:02.800 --> 00:06:04.279 But at the end of the day, if you look 119 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:06.519 at the name of those people, which I don't want 120 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:09.959 to name because they don't deserve to be named, they 121 00:06:10.040 --> 00:06:14.160 are also supporting Russia. So an attack on the wind 122 00:06:14.639 --> 00:06:16.160 is an attack on freedom. 123 00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:17.839 That's it. I finished my runt. 124 00:06:18.639 --> 00:06:24.319 That was a very early round for you, you know sometimes. 125 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:29.680 Yeah, but Benni's in belems be so that's very early 126 00:06:29.759 --> 00:06:33.720 for him. And talk about the Cup because the wind 127 00:06:33.759 --> 00:06:37.000 industry has a very important role to play in the Cup. 128 00:06:37.040 --> 00:06:38.120 So how is Bedam going. 129 00:06:39.160 --> 00:06:41.920 Well, it's seven o'clock in the morning and it's pouring 130 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.160 there with rain and it's hot, but it's a great place. 131 00:06:45.279 --> 00:06:49.319 It's beautiful and people are incredibly welcoming. You can see 132 00:06:49.319 --> 00:06:51.759 all the preparations going up all around the city and 133 00:06:52.040 --> 00:06:55.480 we're meeting with the state authorities today. We've been in 134 00:06:55.519 --> 00:06:58.240 Brazili at the last few days meeting with federal authorities 135 00:06:58.279 --> 00:07:00.560 around the Cup and the COP president and see team 136 00:07:00.600 --> 00:07:03.759 in different ministries. So yeah, it's always exciting coming to 137 00:07:03.759 --> 00:07:07.439 Brazil and this year COP is pretty important both for 138 00:07:07.560 --> 00:07:11.000 renewables and for win. Why because it's what they call 139 00:07:11.079 --> 00:07:14.519 Global stock take Year, which is when countries have to 140 00:07:14.519 --> 00:07:16.879 come and put their numbers on the table and show 141 00:07:17.000 --> 00:07:20.199 what they're really doing in terms of carbon reduction. It's 142 00:07:20.240 --> 00:07:22.319 also a year where countries need to come and present 143 00:07:22.360 --> 00:07:27.000 their NDCs, which are their targets in terms of implementation 144 00:07:27.120 --> 00:07:29.319 in terms of energy and climate. So these are them 145 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:33.120 nationally determined contributions. So it's a pretty important year and 146 00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:36.279 maybe related to your rant Alaurum, we come at this 147 00:07:36.399 --> 00:07:39.399 at a time when renewables is being attacked and especially 148 00:07:39.439 --> 00:07:42.920 where wind has been attacked now for several years. There's 149 00:07:42.959 --> 00:07:45.160 a lot of disinformation out there, there's a lot of 150 00:07:45.240 --> 00:07:47.279 noise out there, a lot of it coming from the 151 00:07:47.319 --> 00:07:51.680 same place, and there's an attempt to undermine the international 152 00:07:51.759 --> 00:07:55.439 frameworks around this and that can have its effects. Especially 153 00:07:55.519 --> 00:07:58.120 important this year that the world comes together that there's 154 00:07:58.160 --> 00:08:02.199 a sensible discussion that to the willing of countries and 155 00:08:02.240 --> 00:08:05.920 actors that are pushing forward the energy transition come together, 156 00:08:05.959 --> 00:08:08.800 and that we're really confident and firm in our commitment. 157 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:10.160 You know, we can't let. 158 00:08:10.040 --> 00:08:13.279 This noise and disinformation on the mind of what we're doing. 159 00:08:13.879 --> 00:08:16.120 Ben, and I just like to follow on from what 160 00:08:16.160 --> 00:08:19.319 you said, and also from Laurent's rant, which is, I 161 00:08:19.319 --> 00:08:21.519 mean I'd come at a slightly different angle, which is 162 00:08:21.759 --> 00:08:24.120 we can't block this energy transition anymore. 163 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:24.399 Right. 164 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:27.319 And when I hear people sort of say, oh, yeah, 165 00:08:27.399 --> 00:08:29.439 we need to build a nuclear because of AI, got 166 00:08:29.439 --> 00:08:30.160 good luck to you on that. 167 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:31.160 I'll take you fifteen. 168 00:08:30.920 --> 00:08:33.000 Years to build a nuclear power station, doesn't help you 169 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:35.519 with your AI. But actually I go and say, well, 170 00:08:35.519 --> 00:08:37.639 you want to build a CCGT, I go, good, look, 171 00:08:37.679 --> 00:08:38.840 you won't be able to get one of them till 172 00:08:38.840 --> 00:08:41.840 twenty thirty because you know, the order books are followed 173 00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:44.000 for g and Siemens and midsubci and. 174 00:08:43.919 --> 00:08:46.120 By the way, the price is double and the prices. 175 00:08:46.480 --> 00:08:50.440 So what this means is what a huge opportunity for 176 00:08:50.919 --> 00:08:55.039 the wind, the solar, the renewable industry going forward, because 177 00:08:55.159 --> 00:08:58.080 you've got a willing. Let's say buyer of Power and 178 00:08:58.159 --> 00:09:01.559 AI plus you've got man for electricity in the Western 179 00:09:01.600 --> 00:09:03.440 world going up for the first time in years. 180 00:09:03.840 --> 00:09:05.159 I look at it a slightly different way. 181 00:09:05.159 --> 00:09:08.120 I just got my god, economics is gonna win, energy 182 00:09:08.159 --> 00:09:11.559 security's going to win, and competition policy is going to win. 183 00:09:11.679 --> 00:09:14.840 So it's just about I don't say, ignoring the bullshit 184 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:17.600 that we're hearing around, but just maybe going out with 185 00:09:17.639 --> 00:09:20.559 a different message, which is you can't resist renewables. 186 00:09:21.279 --> 00:09:23.240 Yeah, I mean I tend to agree with you. We 187 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:26.440 definitely shouldn't be panicking. We should definitely be keep calm 188 00:09:26.440 --> 00:09:28.200 and carry on, and we should be just going out 189 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:31.440 there and walk in the walk and building. And I 190 00:09:31.440 --> 00:09:33.799 think it's really important that we don't get distracted just 191 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:36.200 by all the noise, like you said, and we don't 192 00:09:36.200 --> 00:09:38.360 need to go out there and fight everything. We need 193 00:09:38.399 --> 00:09:40.799 to just show that what we're doing is effective and 194 00:09:40.840 --> 00:09:44.559 the economics are compelling. As you say. Having said that, 195 00:09:44.799 --> 00:09:46.519 one of the things we've realized over the last few 196 00:09:46.600 --> 00:09:50.559 years is that sometimes the politics can disrupt massively in 197 00:09:50.639 --> 00:09:53.759 a way that's really unhelpful for the transition. And if 198 00:09:53.759 --> 00:09:56.720 there's one thing I think to go to win specifically, 199 00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.799 I mean, our economics are compelling, and the role we 200 00:09:59.840 --> 00:10:02.519 need to play within the energy transition means that we 201 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:05.480 need to be really central. But it's really hard to 202 00:10:05.480 --> 00:10:08.080 get things done in many places, and this is probably 203 00:10:08.200 --> 00:10:11.720 the main thing holding us back. It's not the economics 204 00:10:11.720 --> 00:10:14.360 in terms of price compared to other technologies, right, And 205 00:10:14.399 --> 00:10:16.639 it's not the economics in terms of us of the 206 00:10:16.679 --> 00:10:20.639 system impacts of wind. It's the fact that it takes way, way, 207 00:10:20.759 --> 00:10:23.039 way too long to get stuff done in many places. 208 00:10:23.240 --> 00:10:26.679 And there's many factors blocking us in many countries. And 209 00:10:26.720 --> 00:10:29.519 that's true even in the most favorable places like in 210 00:10:29.559 --> 00:10:33.320 the European Union or the UK. There's a lot of 211 00:10:33.360 --> 00:10:35.399 factors that blockers all the time. And you see that 212 00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:38.120 all around the world, and there's a kind of inertia, 213 00:10:38.159 --> 00:10:41.080 you know, kind of government inertia where the complexity seems 214 00:10:41.120 --> 00:10:44.080 to kind of just increase, the bureaucracy seems to kind 215 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:46.639 of increase. And that really hurts us because, as you say, 216 00:10:46.679 --> 00:10:49.240 in terms of actually going out and building projects, we 217 00:10:49.279 --> 00:10:52.399 can do it a lot quicker than certainly the nuclear 218 00:10:52.759 --> 00:10:55.159 more than gas. As you say, this used waiting lists 219 00:10:55.159 --> 00:10:59.120 for many components for many other technologies, and so it 220 00:10:59.200 --> 00:11:01.240 absolutely makes sense. But what I see is this kind 221 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:03.799 of idea that there's a silver bullet somewhere in the 222 00:11:03.799 --> 00:11:07.120 future that's going to solve all the energy problems, right, 223 00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:10.799 whether it's nuclear fusion or something or SMRs, and that's 224 00:11:10.840 --> 00:11:12.879 going to solve all the problems. In the meantime, it 225 00:11:13.039 --> 00:11:15.240 just kind of slow things down. And I think that's 226 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:18.039 the danger. That's slow and then people tell around and say, well, 227 00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:18.840 this doesn't work. 228 00:11:19.679 --> 00:11:24.080 You've been listening a very popular episodes about Bill Gates, 229 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:26.799 you know, and smell and all the click. 230 00:11:27.840 --> 00:11:29.799 But the old the old world. 231 00:11:29.600 --> 00:11:32.039 Was oh my god, yeah or your again. 232 00:11:32.159 --> 00:11:32.399 I mean. 233 00:11:33.320 --> 00:11:36.440 But also what I would like to pinpoint is that 234 00:11:36.879 --> 00:11:40.080 not only the industry is growing, but the technology is 235 00:11:40.120 --> 00:11:44.279 getting better. If you compare the type of turbines we 236 00:11:44.360 --> 00:11:48.399 put now on shore and offshore compared to say fifteen 237 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:52.080 years ago, I mean, they have what triple size, so 238 00:11:52.120 --> 00:11:56.519 that they're bigger, there is less footprint, they are more productive. 239 00:11:57.399 --> 00:12:00.399 So this industry continues to innovate. I mean, I don't know, 240 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:03.080 we're like we're talking about of shot to buying a 241 00:12:03.279 --> 00:12:04.600 twenty megawork. 242 00:12:04.799 --> 00:12:07.399 I remember the first one. They were like four or fivelence. 243 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:09.639 So this is this is remarkable. 244 00:12:10.440 --> 00:12:14.039 The technology is incredible. Also, the efficiency with which we 245 00:12:14.120 --> 00:12:17.200 can install turbines is completely different. I mean, you know 246 00:12:17.679 --> 00:12:20.159 it used to be you know, when we started doing offshore, 247 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.559 you were lucky. If you can install one turbine a 248 00:12:22.600 --> 00:12:24.840 week on a offic wind farm. You can do now 249 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:25.919 easily one a day. 250 00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:27.279 And that's just. 251 00:12:27.240 --> 00:12:31.440 How the technologies improved, the installation technology, but also the 252 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:33.440 tech in terms of how we integrate with the grid, 253 00:12:33.679 --> 00:12:36.080 the sensors, all that. That's again, that's the good news. 254 00:12:36.360 --> 00:12:38.000 I guess, you know, I don't want to put a 255 00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:40.360 downer on it. And the bad news is that a 256 00:12:40.399 --> 00:12:43.320 lot of companies don't make money and there is an 257 00:12:43.399 --> 00:12:46.399 issue there with the way the market's set up. The 258 00:12:46.440 --> 00:12:49.279 returns for many years have been have been really bad 259 00:12:49.279 --> 00:12:52.759 for wind energy manufacturers. More part of this relates to 260 00:12:53.039 --> 00:12:56.240 continually going to bigger and bigger turbines. Part of this 261 00:12:56.320 --> 00:12:58.960 is how do we just make everything massive in terms 262 00:12:59.000 --> 00:13:03.000 of manufacturing and standardize and just kind of push out 263 00:13:03.039 --> 00:13:05.879 what we've already built rather than continually being pushed to 264 00:13:05.960 --> 00:13:08.120 kind of go to bigger turbine. 265 00:13:07.919 --> 00:13:09.600 Bright the way, could I just say it's this nice 266 00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:11.240 to cover this sector as an analyst. 267 00:13:11.279 --> 00:13:13.639 I mean, the thing that I would reflect on now 268 00:13:14.279 --> 00:13:16.559 is that the market's in a totally different place than 269 00:13:16.559 --> 00:13:19.120 it was ten years ago, because ten years ago you 270 00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:22.240 had I've got to say, you have too many manufacturers, 271 00:13:22.600 --> 00:13:25.919 particularly on the onshore side, and you also had on 272 00:13:25.960 --> 00:13:29.360 the offshore side too many manufacturers. Now, looking from I'm 273 00:13:29.360 --> 00:13:31.440 talking from a western point of view, you've got two 274 00:13:31.440 --> 00:13:33.960 players left and then you've got this one or two 275 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:36.919 Chinese players, and that's sort of an Oligopoli situation. You 276 00:13:36.919 --> 00:13:41.159 would assume in that type of environment that margins will improve, 277 00:13:41.759 --> 00:13:43.960 and also in the onshore space, I would say the 278 00:13:43.960 --> 00:13:47.240 exact same thing. Now. The caveat and all that is 279 00:13:47.279 --> 00:13:50.960 whether the Chinese are really going to internationalize and compete 280 00:13:50.960 --> 00:13:53.159 with the Vestas and the Semens of this world and 281 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:56.480 whatever going forward, it might bring another sort of factor 282 00:13:56.600 --> 00:13:58.919 and force of change into this industry. 283 00:13:59.039 --> 00:13:59.240 Right. 284 00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:02.559 This means it's all good for the customer at the 285 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:05.120 end of the day, because it means competition is driving 286 00:14:05.159 --> 00:14:07.200 innovation and price reductions. 287 00:14:07.840 --> 00:14:10.879 Now, for sure, we've been incredibly successful in bringing down 288 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:13.639 the price and we are competitive pretty much ever in 289 00:14:13.679 --> 00:14:17.759 the world. The factor which is causing doubt in the 290 00:14:17.799 --> 00:14:20.960 industry or kind or limiting the ability to scale up 291 00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:23.679 really is the way that off take work. You know, 292 00:14:23.720 --> 00:14:26.080 we moved from feeding tariff to auctioning quite a few 293 00:14:26.159 --> 00:14:29.159 years ago, and then since then there's been this race 294 00:14:29.240 --> 00:14:32.159 to the bottom in terms of prices, which we totally get. 295 00:14:32.279 --> 00:14:34.720 We want to provide value the consumer, we want to 296 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:38.320 be competitive, but often some of those off take systems 297 00:14:38.519 --> 00:14:41.720 don't really allocate risk in a way which works for 298 00:14:41.919 --> 00:14:45.600 investing and manufacturing. And I'm talking about things like auctions 299 00:14:45.600 --> 00:14:49.080 that are kind of zero bids or negative bidding auctions, 300 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:51.960 which are essentially mean you have to take risk on 301 00:14:52.000 --> 00:14:54.840 a kind of future power price. Some of those things 302 00:14:55.000 --> 00:14:57.440 are unhelpful, and then needs to do a better kind 303 00:14:57.440 --> 00:15:00.720 of risk allocation. This is the energy transition, and there 304 00:15:00.759 --> 00:15:04.120 needs to be pretty clear signals to move on decisively 305 00:15:04.519 --> 00:15:06.840 when we're in that kind of middle period, and I 306 00:15:06.879 --> 00:15:10.200 do think in many places in framework the incentives are 307 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:12.000 not there to do that effectively. 308 00:15:13.080 --> 00:15:15.720 I agree with you, because if you look at the 309 00:15:15.799 --> 00:15:20.000 conditions that are given to new coal plants in Asia, 310 00:15:20.519 --> 00:15:24.480 they get PPAs which are like insane at prices which 311 00:15:24.519 --> 00:15:28.600 are like double because let's say it, because of corruption. 312 00:15:29.639 --> 00:15:33.320 The coal industry is a corrupt industry. And if we 313 00:15:33.360 --> 00:15:36.879 have the same condition as the coal industry, I mean, 314 00:15:36.919 --> 00:15:40.440 we would put three times more wind. So I'm sorry, 315 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:42.440 I mean that's my second rant of the episode. But 316 00:15:42.679 --> 00:15:45.840 I guess this is wrong day. We are not treated 317 00:15:45.919 --> 00:15:49.279 properly by all those guys that they're going to come 318 00:15:49.320 --> 00:15:51.639 and smile at cop and yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, And 319 00:15:51.679 --> 00:15:55.559 you know behind some of those people are nefarious. They 320 00:15:55.559 --> 00:15:59.240 are nefarious. They prefer their personal interest to the interests 321 00:15:59.279 --> 00:16:03.519 of the people. But okay, me saying, let's move to 322 00:16:03.759 --> 00:16:07.320 probably a bit more positive territory, which is the new 323 00:16:07.360 --> 00:16:10.159 report that you're going to put out in a few days, 324 00:16:10.200 --> 00:16:12.240 so kind of explain what it is. 325 00:16:13.360 --> 00:16:16.960 So the Global Wind Report is the report from a 326 00:16:17.200 --> 00:16:20.679 bottom up perspective, details all the projects in the world 327 00:16:21.039 --> 00:16:24.600 where the wind industry is growing, what we've installed, but 328 00:16:24.720 --> 00:16:27.320 also every year kind of has a theme around the 329 00:16:27.399 --> 00:16:30.200 challenge is where the new markets are. So that report's 330 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:33.720 coming out soon. It's going to show from the data, 331 00:16:34.120 --> 00:16:36.559 pretty good year, but not as good a year as 332 00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:40.440 we expected. Probably around another record year, but again not 333 00:16:40.639 --> 00:16:43.080 going as fast as we'd like. And there's a few 334 00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:46.879 things to note. Maybe one is the US, where it's 335 00:16:46.960 --> 00:16:51.320 been a little bit disappointing compared to what we're expecting. 336 00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:54.039 But in generally it will show a pretty strong year 337 00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:58.039 and with some growth areas in new markets, but also 338 00:16:58.240 --> 00:17:00.639 will show a few places where they really getting their 339 00:17:00.639 --> 00:17:03.679 act together and speeding up. Germany being one to mention. 340 00:17:04.519 --> 00:17:07.960 It shows where government has really gone and reformed planning 341 00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.440 law for instance, really gone and put in the right 342 00:17:10.480 --> 00:17:12.920 measures and say we're serious about speeding up. It can 343 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:15.839 be done. Yeah, that's what the report's about. Be a 344 00:17:15.880 --> 00:17:17.480 pretty good year for US. 345 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:21.079 You talk about the US, so let's talk about the US. 346 00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:28.319 The politicization offshore win especially has been in my personal opinion, despicable. 347 00:17:29.119 --> 00:17:31.200 And if I look at the right offs, I mean 348 00:17:31.240 --> 00:17:34.440 that poor hosted how much did they had to write 349 00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:37.480 off like five billion on the various project and also 350 00:17:38.200 --> 00:17:40.839 ILIEV got a billion shelled billion and so on. So 351 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:46.640 that industry, our industry honestly believed that there was a 352 00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:49.359 case and they started putting the supply chain and do 353 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:54.119 the analysis and everything has been just torn down following 354 00:17:54.400 --> 00:17:57.319 a no full campaign. Really, those people who are beyind 355 00:17:57.319 --> 00:17:58.960 should not be proud. I mean, like, what a. 356 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:02.519 Way is dying? Yeah, ten years before they shot, they'll 357 00:18:02.519 --> 00:18:03.079 byar rise. 358 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:07.079 I mean this is absolutely ridiculous. Yeah, that's my third round. Sorry, 359 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:08.759 I thought the last round. 360 00:18:09.160 --> 00:18:10.839 I'm gonna give an answer to that round because I 361 00:18:10.880 --> 00:18:13.880 have a completely different view. Okay, I've used very simple 362 00:18:14.119 --> 00:18:20.039 United States. They're blessed with incredible natural resources, incredible onshore 363 00:18:20.119 --> 00:18:23.440 resources in terms of wind, incredible resources in terms of 364 00:18:23.519 --> 00:18:26.640 solar and also gas. So why the hell should they 365 00:18:26.720 --> 00:18:29.720 pay you know, treble digit prices per mega water for 366 00:18:29.759 --> 00:18:33.799 offshore wind when they can do it unshore and through 367 00:18:33.839 --> 00:18:36.440 all the other sources for cheaper. So for me, I 368 00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:39.599 would actually go and say, stupid Europeans for going over 369 00:18:39.640 --> 00:18:43.279 there and banking on the American government going and putting. 370 00:18:43.000 --> 00:18:45.240 Massive subsidies in for off show win when they don't 371 00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:45.640 need it. 372 00:18:46.160 --> 00:18:50.319 Yeah, I hear you, misters a week. You'll be reinvited 373 00:18:50.440 --> 00:18:54.000 next year. But let me tell you. Try to take 374 00:18:54.160 --> 00:18:57.599 a cable from Kansas or Clubat to New England, you know, 375 00:18:57.640 --> 00:19:00.880 and cross twelve states and I don't know how many 376 00:19:01.240 --> 00:19:04.440 counties and so on. So, yes, there is a resource, 377 00:19:04.599 --> 00:19:08.200 fantastic resource in the center of the US, but we 378 00:19:08.200 --> 00:19:12.400 were talking about the northeast where they don't have the gas. 379 00:19:12.440 --> 00:19:14.640 So in fact, the gas they paid as much as 380 00:19:14.680 --> 00:19:18.519 in Europe because there's no pipeline, there's no wires. There 381 00:19:18.519 --> 00:19:21.319 are big load centers between Boston and New York. So 382 00:19:21.359 --> 00:19:24.160 it made a lot of sense if you consider the 383 00:19:24.240 --> 00:19:27.480 global price to the system, not just the three digits. 384 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:28.599 Okay, it's what. 385 00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:31.440 I'm fine to have a win at a twenty dollars 386 00:19:31.480 --> 00:19:34.079 o MAGA what hour in Oklahoma. But if you need 387 00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:38.240 it in Boston, I'd rather put my offshore wind across Boston. 388 00:19:39.079 --> 00:19:41.160 And Ben, I'd like to hear your thoughts that it's 389 00:19:41.160 --> 00:19:42.839 a little bit like if I'm seeing what's going on 390 00:19:42.880 --> 00:19:45.640 in Germany with off show wind. You've had the CEO 391 00:19:45.880 --> 00:19:49.039 of r wa ade on the two biggest utilities basically 392 00:19:49.079 --> 00:19:52.119 go out say off show wind makes no sense whatsoever, 393 00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:54.599 they say from an economics point of view. Now they're 394 00:19:54.599 --> 00:19:57.519 not talking, by the way, necessarily about the turbine cost. 395 00:19:57.519 --> 00:20:00.359 They're talking about the grid course. So I would just 396 00:20:00.400 --> 00:20:03.440 say that where I'm trying to point out is Derek 397 00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:07.400 is concerned about the economics of offshore wind compared to 398 00:20:07.440 --> 00:20:08.000 other alters. 399 00:20:08.559 --> 00:20:09.319 There's two things. 400 00:20:09.640 --> 00:20:13.640 First of all, US on shore wind is extremely competitive, right, 401 00:20:13.680 --> 00:20:17.400